Estimated 10-year cardiovascular mortality seriously underestimates overall cardiovascular risk

Deep Inspiration Breath Hold in Left-Sided Breast Radiotherapy: A Balance Between Side Effects and Costs

Background

Deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) is an effective technique for reducing heart exposure during radiotherapy for left-sided breast cancer. Despite its benefits, cost considerations and its impact on workflow remain significant barriers to widespread adoption.

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of DIBH and compare its operational, financial, and clinical outcomes with free breathing (FB) in breast cancer treatment.

Methods

Treatment plans for 100 patients with left-sided breast cancer were generated using both DIBH and FB techniques. Dosimetric data, including the average mean heart dose, were calculated for each technique and used to estimate the cardiotoxicity of radiotherapy. A state-transition microsimulation model based on SCORE2 (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) algorithms projected the effects of DIBH on cardiovascular outcomes and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were calculated from a provider perspective using time-driven activity-based costing, applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of €40,000 for cost-effectiveness assessment. A discrete event simulation model assessed the impacts of DIBH vs FB on throughput and waiting times in the radiotherapy workflow.

Results

In the base case scenario, DIBH was associated with an absolute risk reduction of 1.72% (95% CI: 1.67%-1.76%) in total cardiovascular events and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.67%-0.72%) in fatal cardiovascular events over 20 years. Additionally, DIBH was estimated to provide an incremental 0.04 QALYs (95% CI: 0.05-0.05) per left-sided breast cancer patient over the same time period. However, DIBH increased treatment times, reducing maximum achievable throughput by 12.48% (95% CI: 12.36%-12.75%) and increasing costs by €617 per left-sided breast cancer patient (95% CI: €615-€619). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €14,023 per QALY.

Conclusions

Despite time investments, DIBH is cost-effective in the Belgian population. The growing adoption of DIBH may benefit long-term cardiovascular health in breast cancer survivors.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study

Background

No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system.

Methods

This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis).

Findings

Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration.

Funding

Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

CML-Cardio: a cascade machine learning model to predict cardiovascular disease risk as a primary prevention strategy

Cardiovascular diseases are among the leading causes of mortality worldwide, with more than 23 million related deaths per year by 2030, according to the World Heart Federation. Although most of these diseases may be prevented, population awareness strategies are still ineffective. In this context, we propose the CML-Cardio tool, a machine learning application to automate the risk classification process of developing CVDs. For this, researchers in our group collected data on diabetes, blood pressure, and other risk factors in a private company. Our final model consists of a cascade system to handle highly imbalanced data. In the first stage, a binary model is responsible for predicting whether a patient has a low risk of developing CVDs or if has a risk that needs attention. In this step, we use six algorithms: logistic regression, SVM, random forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and multilayer perceptron. The better results presented an average accuracy of 0.86 ± 0.03 and f-score of 0.85 ± 0.04. We interpret each feature's impact on the models' output and validate the subsystem for the next step. In the second stage, we use an anomaly detection model to learn the intermediate risk patterns present in the instances that need attention. The cascade model presented an average accuracy of 0.80 ± 0.07 and f-score of 0.70 ± 0.07. Finally, we develop the CML-Cardio prototype of an actual application as a primary prevention strategy. Graphical abstract In this work, we propose the CML-Cardio tool, a cascade machine learning method to classify cardiovascular disease risk.

Endometriosis and cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Endometriosis, a prevalent condition among females of reproductive age, may be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) through chronic inflammation and early menopause. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between endometriosis and subsequent risk of CVD.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study using administrative health data from Ontario residents from 1993 to 2015. We compared the incidence of CVD and cardiovascular health outcomes between females with endometriosis and 2 age-matched females without endometriosis. The primary outcome was hospital admission for CVD. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital CVD events of interest and emergency department visits for CVD. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) between endometriosis and CVD events.

RESULTS

We identified 166 835 eligible patients with endometriosis and matched 333 706 patients without endometriosis. The mean age of those with endometriosis was 36.4 years. Patients with endometriosis had a higher incidence of hospital admission for CVD (195 admissions/100 000 person-years) compared with those without endometriosis (163 admissions/100 000 person-years). Similarly, the incidence of secondary CVD events was slightly higher among patients with endometriosis (292 cases/100 000 person-years) than among those without endometriosis (224 cases/100 000 person-years). Females with endometriosis had an increased risk of hospital admission (adjusted HR 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.19) and secondary CVD events (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.23-1.30).

INTERPRETATION

In this large, population-based study, endometriosis was associated with a small increased risk of CVD events. Future studies need to investigate potential etiological mechanisms and strategies to decrease long-term CVD risk in patients with endometriosis.

Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter of the population. Assessing disease burdens among displaced people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated the disease burden in Ukrainians displaced both within Ukraine and to other countries by combining a spatiotemporal model of forcible displacement with age- and gender-specific estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in each of Ukraine's 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among displaced Ukrainians as of May 13, we estimated that more than 2.63 million have CVDs, at least 615,000 have diabetes, and over 98,500 have cancer. In addition, more than 86,000 forcibly displaced individuals are living with HIV, and approximately 13,500 have TB. We estimated that the disease prevalence among refugees was lower than the national disease prevalence before the invasion. Accounting for internal displacement and healthcare facilities impacted by the conflict, we estimated that the number of people per hospital has increased by more than two-fold in some areas. As regional healthcare systems come under increasing strain, these estimates can inform the allocation of critical resources under shifting disease burdens.

The contribution of smoking to differences in cardiovascular disease incidence between men and women across six ethnic groups in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: The HELIUS study

It is unclear to what extent differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between men and women are explained by differences in smoking, and whether this contribution to risk is consistent across ethnic groups. In this prospective study, we determined the contribution of smoking to differences in CVD incidence between men and women, also in various ethnic groups. We linked baseline data of 18,058 participants of six ethnic groups from the HELIUS study (Amsterdam, the Netherlands) to CVD incidence data, based on hospital admission and death records from Statistics Netherlands (2013-2019). The contribution of smoking to CVD incidence, as estimated by the population attributable fraction, was higher in men than in women, overall (24.1% versus 15.6%) and across most ethnic groups. Among Dutch participants, however, the contribution of smoking was higher among women (21.0%) than men (16.2%). Using Cox regression analyses, we observed that differences in smoking prevalence explained 22.0% of the overall lower hazard for CVD in women compared to men. Smoking contributed minimally to the lower hazards for CVD in women among participants of Dutch (0%), Ghanaian (4.9%) and Moroccan origin (0%), but explained 28.6% and 48.6% of the lower hazards in women in South-Asian Surinamese and African Surinamese groups, respectively. While smoking prevention and cessation may lead to lower CVD incidence in most groups of men and women, it may not substantially reduce disparities in CVD risk between men and women in most ethnic groups.

One-year cardiovascular outcomes after coronavirus disease 2019: The cardiovascular COVID-19 registry

BACKGROUND

The long-term cardiovascular (CV) outcomes of COVID-19 have not been fully explored.

METHODS

This was an international, multicenter, retrospective cohort study conducted between February and December 2020. Consecutive patients ≥18 years who underwent a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for SARS-CoV2 were included. Patients were classified into two cohorts depending on the nasopharyngeal swab result and clinical status: confirmed COVID-19 (positive RT-PCR) and control (without suggestive symptoms and negative RT-PCR). Data were obtained from electronic records, and clinical follow-up was performed at 1-year. The primary outcome was CV death at 1-year. Secondary outcomes included arterial thrombotic events (ATE), venous thromboembolism (VTE), and serious cardiac arrhythmias. An independent clinical event committee adjudicated events. A Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for all baseline characteristics was used for comparing outcomes between groups. A prespecified landmark analysis was performed to assess events during the post-acute phase (31-365 days).

RESULTS

A total of 4,427 patients were included: 3,578 (80.8%) in the COVID-19 and 849 (19.2%) control cohorts. At one year, there were no significant differences in the primary endpoint of CV death between the COVID-19 and control cohorts (1.4% vs. 0.8%; HRadj 1.28 [0.56-2.91]; p = 0.555), but there was a higher risk of all-cause death (17.8% vs. 4.0%; HRadj 2.82 [1.99-4.0]; p = 0.001). COVID-19 cohort had higher rates of ATE (2.5% vs. 0.8%, HRadj 2.26 [1.02-4.99]; p = 0.044), VTE (3.7% vs. 0.4%, HRadj 9.33 [2.93-29.70]; p = 0.001), and serious cardiac arrhythmias (2.5% vs. 0.6%, HRadj 3.37 [1.35-8.46]; p = 0.010). During the post-acute phase, there were no significant differences in CV death (0.6% vs. 0.7%; HRadj 0.67 [0.25-1.80]; p = 0.425), but there was a higher risk of deep vein thrombosis (0.6% vs. 0.0%; p = 0.028). Re-hospitalization rate was lower in the COVID-19 cohort compared to the control cohort (13.9% vs. 20.6%; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

At 1-year, patients with COVID-19 experienced an increased risk of all-cause death and adverse CV events, including ATE, VTE, and serious cardiac arrhythmias, but not CV death.

STUDY REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT04359927.

Association of outcome with left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction measured with two- and three-dimensional echocardiography in patients referred for routine, clinically indicated studies

Objectives

We sought to analyze if left ventricular (LV) volumes and ejection fraction (EF) measured by three-dimensional echocardiography (3DE) have incremental prognostic value over measurements obtained from two-dimensional echocardiography (2DE) in patients referred to a high-volume echocardiography laboratory for routine, clinically-indicated studies.

Methods

We measured LV volumes and EF using both 2DE and 3DE in 725 consecutive patients (67% men; 59 ± 18 years) with various clinical indications referred for a routine clinical study.

Results

LV volumes were significantly larger, and EF was lower when measured by 3DE than 2DE. During follow-up (3.6 ± 1.2 years), 111 (15.3%) all-cause deaths and 248 (34.2%) cardiac hospitalizations occurred. Larger LV volumes and lower EF were associated with worse outcome independent of age, creatinine, hemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, and ischemic heart diseases). In stepwise Cox regression analyses, the associations of both death and cardiac hospitalization with clinical data (CD: age, creatinine, hemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, and ischemic heart disease) whose Harrel's C-index (HC) was 0.775, were augmented more by the LV volumes and EF obtained by 3DE than by 2DE parameters. The association of CD with death was not affected by LV end-diastolic volume (EDV) either measured by 2DE or 3DE. Conversely, it was incremented by 3DE LVEF (HC = 0.84, p < 0.001) more than 2DE LVEF (HC = 0.814, p < 0.001). The association of CD with the composite endpoint (HC = 0.64, p = 0.002) was augmented more by 3DE LV EDV (HC = 0.786, p < 0.001), end-systolic volume (HC = 0.801, p < 0.001), and EF (HC = 0.84, p < 0.001) than by the correspondent 2DE parameters (HC = 0.786, HC = 0.796, and 0.84, all p < 0.001) In addition, partition values for mild, moderate and severe reduction of the LVEF measured by 3DE showed a higher discriminative power than those measured by 2DE for cardiac death (Log-Rank: χ² = 98.3 vs. χ² = 77.1; p < 0.001). Finally, LV dilation defined according to the 3DE threshold values showed higher discriminatory power and prognostic value for death than when using 2DE reference values (3DE LVEDV: χ² = 15.9, p < 0.001 vs. χ² = 10.8, p = 0.001; 3DE LVESV: χ² = 24.4, p < 0.001 vs. χ² = 17.4, p = 0.001).

Conclusion

In patients who underwent routine, clinically-indicated echocardiography, 3DE LVEF and ESV showed stronger association with outcome than the corresponding 2DE parameters.

Overall and cardiovascular mortality according to 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup: the Kangbuk Samsung Cohort Study

Background

According to the occupational accident status analysis in 2020, of 1,180 occupational deaths, 463 were caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). Workers should be assessed for CVD risk at regular intervals to prevent work-related CVD in accordance with the rules on occupational safety and health standards. However, no previous study has addressed risk and mortality. Therefore, this longitudinal study was conducted to evaluate the relationship between 10-year cardiovascular risk of the general health checkup and mortality.

Methods

The study included 545,859 participants who visited Kangbuk Samsung Total Healthcare Centers from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2017. We performed 10-year cardiovascular risk assessment for the participants and the risk was divided into 4 groups (low, moderate, high, and very high). The study used death data from the Korea National Statistical Office for survival status as an outcome variable by December 31, 2019, and the cause of death based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10^th Revision (ICD-10) was identified. Statistical analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and the sum of the periods from the first visit to the date of death or December 31, 2019, was used as a time scale. We also performed a stratified analysis for age at baseline and sex.

Results

During 5,253,627.9 person-years, 4,738 overall deaths and 654 cardiovascular deaths occurred. When the low-risk group was set as a reference, in the multivariable-adjusted model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for overall mortality were 3.36 (2.87-3.95) in the moderate-risk group, 11.08 (9.27-13.25) in the high-risk group, and 21.20 (17.42-25.79) in the very-high-risk group, all of which were statistically significant. In cardiovascular deaths, the difference according to the risk classification was more pronounced. The HRs (95% CI) were 8.57 (4.95-14.83), 38.95 (21.77-69.69), and 78.81 (42.62-145.71) in each group. As a result of a subgroup analysis by age and sex, the HRs of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality tended to be higher in the high-risk group.

Conclusions

This large-scale longitudinal study confirmed that the risk of death increases with the 10-year cardiovascular risk of general health checkup.

Statin Eligibility for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease According to 2021 European Prevention Guidelines Compared With Other International Guidelines

Importance

For primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), the 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines on statin use (hereafter European-ESC) recommend a new risk model (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 [European-SCORE2]) as well as new age-specific treatment thresholds (≥7.5% 10-year ASCVD risk if aged 40-49 years and ≥10% if aged 50-69 years).

Objective

To compare the clinical performance of the 2021 European-ESC, American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (hereafter US-ACC/AHA), UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (UK-NICE), and 2019 ESC/European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) guidelines in apparently healthy individuals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based contemporary cohort study included 66 909 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. Participants were aged 40 to 69 years and were free of ASCVD, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and statin use at baseline in 2003 to 2015. Mean follow-up time was 9.2 years. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to April 2022.

Exposures

Statin treatment according to guideline criteria.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Calibration of risk calculators, statin eligibility, sensitivity, and specificity for ASCVD events according to guideline criteria.

Results

During follow-up, a range of 2962 to 4277 nonfatal and fatal ASCVD events was observed, as defined by the 2021 European-SCORE2, US pooled cohort equations (PCE), and UK-QRISK3 models, and 180 fatal ASCVD events were noted as defined by the 2019 European-SCORE1 model. European-SCORE2 was slightly better calibrated with a predicted/observed ASCVD event ratio of 0.8 vs 1.3 for US-PCE, 1.3 for UK-QRISK3, and 5.8 for European-SCORE1. For primary prevention class I recommendations in individuals aged 40 to 69 years, 2862 of 66 909 (4%) qualified for statins according to the 2021 European-ESC guidelines compared with 23 029 (34%) with US-ACC/AHA, 17 659 (26%) with UK-NICE, and 13 496 (20%) with 2019 European-ESC/EAS guidelines, with associated sensitivities for detecting future European-SCORE2-defined ASCVD events of 12%, 60%, 51%, and 36%, respectively. The sensitivity of the European-ESC guidelines was improved considerably by lowering the treatment thresholds, resulting in smaller losses in specificity. To obtain similar clinical performance with the 2021 European-ESC guidelines as in the other guidelines, the threshold with European-SCORE2 should be reduced to 5% overall to match US-ACC/AHA, to 6% to match UK-NICE, and to 7% to match 2019 European-ESC/EAS guidelines.

Conclusions and Relevance

Despite an improved European-SCORE2 prediction model, the new treatment thresholds in the 2021 European-ESC guidelines dramatically reduce eligibility for primary prevention with statins in low-risk European countries. Using lower treatment thresholds can improve overall guideline performance.

Impact of Outcome Definitions on Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in a Contemporary Primary Prevention Population

BACKGROUND

Estimation of an individual's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may enhance risk discussion and treatment decisions. Yet, common cardiovascular outcomes such as heart failure or coronary revascularization are not included in the estimation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Our objective was to determine the incidence of ASCVD in a contemporary primary prevention population with more than 10 years of follow-up, and how incidence estimates change when incorporating additional cardiovascular endpoints.

METHODS

We used the population-level CANHEART (Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team) database of all Ontario residents alive January 1, 2008, aged 30-99 years, and with no prior history of cardiovascular disease. Individuals were followed to December 31, 2019 for incident first and recurrent cardiovascular events. ASCVD outcomes were defined by hospitalizations for myocardial infarction, stroke and circulatory death, while global CVD outcomes also included hospitalizations for unstable angina, transient ischemic attacks, peripheral arterial disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, heart failure and coronary revascularization.

RESULTS

Among 7496 165 individuals free of cardiovascular disease, their mean age was 50 years (SD: 13.9 years) and 52.3% were women. After 11 years of follow-up, the rate of an incident ASCVD event was 3.95 per 1000 person-years while the rate of a global CVD event was almost doubled at 6.67 per 1000 person-years. The most common additional first manifestations of CVD were heart failure which accounted for 12.0% of additional events and coronary revascularization which accounted for 12.7%. When considering first and recurrent events, the rate of ASCVD was 5.20 per 1000 person-years while the rate of all global CVD events was more than double at 10.90 per 1000 person-years. This was mainly due to a higher proportion of recurrent heart failure (13.7%) and coronary revascularization (23.2%) events.

CONCLUSIONS

ASCVD accounts for just over half of all preventable first cardiovascular events and even fewer first and recurrent cardiovascular events in contemporary practice. Estimating broader CVD endpoints may enhance risk-discussions with patients and improve informed decision-making.

PCSK9 inhibitors and ezetimibe for the reduction of cardiovascular events: a clinical practice guideline with risk-stratified recommendations

CLINICAL QUESTION

In adults with low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels >1.8 mmol/L (>70 mg/dL) who are already taking the maximum dose of statins or are intolerant to statins, should another lipid-lowering drug be added, either a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor or ezetimibe, to reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events? If so, which drug is preferred? Having decided to use one, should we add the other lipid-lowering drug?

CURRENT PRACTICE

Most guidelines emphasise LDL cholesterol targets in their recommendations for prescribing PCSK9 inhibitors and/or ezetimibe in adults at high risk of experiencing a major adverse cardiovascular event. However, to achieve these goals in very high risk patients with statins alone is almost impossible, so physicians are increasingly considering other lipid-lowering drugs solely for achieving LDL cholesterol treatment goals rather than for achieving important absolute cardiovascular risk reduction. Most guidelines do not systematically assess the cardiovascular benefits of adding PCSK9 inhibitors and/or ezetimibe for all risk groups across primary and secondary prevention, nor do they report, in accordance with explicit judgments of assumed patients' values and preferences, absolute benefits and harms and potential treatment burdens.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The guideline panel provided mostly weak recommendations, which means we rely on shared decision making when applying these recommendations. For adults already using statins, the panel suggests adding a second lipid-lowering drug in people at very high and high cardiovascular risk but recommends against adding it in people at low cardiovascular risk. For adults who are intolerant to statins, the panel recommends using a lipid-lowering drug in people at very high and high cardiovascular risk but against adding it in those at low cardiovascular risk. When choosing to add another lipid-lowering drug, the panel suggests ezetimibe in preference to PCSK9 inhibitors. The panel suggests further adding a PCSK9 inhibitor to ezetimibe for adults already taking statins at very high risk and those at very high and high risk who are intolerant to statins.

HOW THIS GUIDELINE WAS CREATED

An international panel including patients, clinicians, and methodologists produced these recommendations following standards for trustworthy guidelines and using the GRADE approach. The panel identified four risk groups of patients (low, moderate, high, and very high cardiovascular risk) and primarily applied an individual patient perspective in moving from evidence to recommendations, though societal issues were a secondary consideration. The panel considered the balance of benefits and harms and burdens of starting a PCSK9 inhibitor and/or ezetimibe, making assumptions of adults' average values and preferences. Interactive evidence summaries and decision aids accompany multi-layered recommendations, developed in an online authoring and publication platform (www.magicapp.org) that also allows re-use and adaptation.

THE EVIDENCE

A linked systematic review and network meta-analysis (14 trials including 83 660 participants) of benefits found that PCSK9 inhibitors or ezetimibe probably reduce myocardial infarctions and stroke in patients with very high and high cardiovascular risk, with no impact on mortality (moderate to high certainty evidence), but not in those with moderate and low cardiovascular risk. PCSK9 inhibitors may have similar effects to ezetimibe on reducing non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (low certainty evidence). These relative benefits were consistent, but their absolute magnitude varied based on cardiovascular risk in individual patients (for example, for 1000 people treated with PCSK9 inhibitors in addition to statins over five years, benefits ranged from 2 fewer strokes in the lowest risk to 21 fewer in the highest risk). Two systematic reviews on harms found no important adverse events for these drugs (moderate to high certainty evidence). PCSK9 inhibitors require injections that sometimes result in injection site reactions (best estimate 15 more per 1000 in a 5 year timeframe), representing a burden and harm that may matter to patients. The MATCH-IT decision support tool allows you to interact with the evidence and your patients across the alternative options: https://magicevidence.org/match-it/220504dist-lipid-lowering-drugs/.

UNDERSTANDING THE RECOMMENDATIONS

The stratification into four cardiovascular risk groups means that, to use the recommendations, physicians need to identify their patient's risk first. We therefore suggest, specific to various geographical regions, using some reliable risk calculators that estimate patients' cardiovascular risk based on a mix of known risk factors. The largely weak recommendations concerning the addition of ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors reflect what the panel considered to be a close balance between small reductions in stroke and myocardial infarctions weighed against the burdens and limited harms.Because of the anticipated large variability of patients' values and preferences, well informed choices warrant shared decision making. Interactive evidence summaries and decision aids linked to the recommendations can facilitate such shared decisions. The strong recommendations against adding another drug in people at low cardiovascular risk reflect what the panel considered to be a burden without important benefits. The strong recommendation for adding either ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors in people at high and very high cardiovascular risk reflect a clear benefit.The panel recognised the key uncertainty in the evidence concerning patient values and preferences, namely that what most people consider important reductions in cardiovascular risks, weighed against burdens and harms, remains unclear. Finally, availability and costs will influence decisions when healthcare systems, clinicians, or people consider adding ezetimibe or PCSK9 inhibitors.

Prevalence of and Factors Associated With the Prescription of Fibrates Among Patients Receiving Lipid-Lowering Drugs in Germany

ABSTRACT

Little recent data are available about the patterns of prescription for fibrates in patients followed in primary care practices. Therefore, the goal of this study was to analyze the prevalence of and the factors associated with the use of fibrates among patients receiving lipid-lowering drugs in Germany. The study included patients aged ≥18 years with at least 1 visit to 1 of 1070 general practices in Germany between January and December 2019. Lipid-lowering drugs included statins (without and with ezetimibe) and fibrates. The prevalence of the prescription of fibrates corresponded to the number of patients with at least 1 prescription for fibrates divided by the total number of patients receiving lipid-lowering drugs. A logistic regression model was used to assess the relationship between several demographic, clinical, and biological factors and the prescription of fibrates. A total of 111,329 patients were included in this study (mean [SD] age 68.8 [11.5] years; 56.0% of patients were men). The prevalence of the prescription of fibrates was 1.5%. Male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high triglyceride were positively associated with the use of fibrates. By contrast, there was a negative relationship between the odds of receiving fibrates and coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and stroke including transient ischemic attack. Overall, we found that fibrates were infrequently prescribed in general practices in Germany.

Population genomic screening of young adults for familial hypercholesterolaemia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering population genomic screening to all young adults in Australia to detect heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We designed a decision analytic Markov model to compare the current standard of care for heterozygous FH diagnosis in Australia (opportunistic cholesterol screening and genetic cascade testing) with the alternate strategy of population genomic screening of adults aged 18-40 years to detect pathogenic variants in the LDLR/APOB/PCSK9 genes. We used a validated cost-adaptation method to adapt findings to eight high-income countries. The model captured coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity/mortality over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare and societal perspectives. Risk of CHD, treatment effects, prevalence, and healthcare costs were estimated from published studies. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to explore the impact of key input parameters on the robustness of the model. Over the lifetime of the population (4 167 768 men; 4 129 961 women), the model estimated a gain of 33 488years of life lived and 51 790 QALYs due to CHD prevention. Population genomic screening for FH would be cost-effective from a healthcare perspective if the per-test cost was ≤AU$250, yielding an ICER of <AU$28 000 per QALY gained. From a societal perspective, population genomic screening would be cost-saving. ICERs from societal perspective remained cost-saving after adaptation to other countries.

CONCLUSION

Based on our model, offering population genomic screening to all young adults for FH could be cost-effective, at testing costs that are feasible.

Cardiovascular health after menopause transition, pregnancy disorders, and other gynaecologic conditions: a consensus document from European cardiologists, gynaecologists, and endocrinologists

Women undergo important changes in sex hormones throughout their lifetime that can impact cardiovascular disease risk. Whereas the traditional cardiovascular risk factors dominate in older age, there are several female-specific risk factors and inflammatory risk variables that influence a woman's risk at younger and middle age. Hypertensive pregnancy disorders and gestational diabetes are associated with a higher risk in younger women. Menopause transition has an additional adverse effect to ageing that may demand specific attention to ensure optimal cardiovascular risk profile and quality of life. In this position paper, we provide an update of gynaecological and obstetric conditions that interact with cardiovascular risk in women. Practice points for clinical use are given according to the latest standards from various related disciplines (Figure 1).

Gender-related characteristics and disparities in estimated cardiovascular disease risk in a multi-ethnic general population: The HELIUS study

BACKGROUND

Differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between men and women have been widely reported. However, risk differences by gender-related characteristics (sociocultural characteristics) have been poorly studied, although these characteristics may associate with cardiovascular health. We explored associations of three gender-related characteristics with estimated CVD risk in men and women within various ethnic groups.

METHODS

We used baseline data of 9185 participants of six ethnic groups of the HELIUS study (Amsterdam, the Netherlands), aged 40-65 years, without CVD and diabetes. We studied the associations of three gender-related characteristics (time per week doing household work, primary earner status, performing a male- or female-dominated occupation) with CVD risk as estimated with SCORE algorithm using linear regression analyses. Analyses were stratified by sex, and adjusted for age and socioeconomic status. Next, we explored whether associations differed across ethnic groups.

RESULTS

Individuals who were no primary earners had a 6% (beta 0.94; 95% CI 0.88-1.01; men) and 8% (beta 0.92; 95% CI 0.90-0.95; women) lower CVD risk than primary earners. Performing a female-dominated versus male-dominated occupation was associated with a 7% lower CVD risk in women (beta 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.99), but not in men. Time spent on household work was not associated with CVD risk. These associations were mostly consistent across ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

Masculine gender-related characteristics were associated with a higher estimated CVD risk across ethnic groups, specifically, being the primary earner (men and women) and performing a male-dominated occupation (women). Our findings may in future help to identify specific high-risk groups.

The effect of feedback on cardiovascular risk factors on optimization of primary prevention: The PharmLines initiative

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether population based single assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and feedback to individuals and general practitioners results in initiation of preventive cardiovascular pharmacotherapy in those at risk.

METHODS

The population based cohort study Lifelines was linked to the IADB.nl pharmacy database to assess information on the initiation of preventive medication (N = 48,770). At the baseline visit, information on cardiovascular risk factors was collected and reported to the participants and their general practitioners. An interrupted-time-series-analysis was plotted, in which the start year of blood pressure and lipid lowering medication was displayed in years before or after the baseline visit. Subsequently, predictors of the initiation of pharmacotherapy were determined and possible reduction in cardiovascular events that could be achieved by optimal treatment of individuals at risk.

RESULTS

Before the Lifelines baseline visit, 34% (out of 1,527, 95% Confidence interval (CI) 32%-36%) and 30% (out of 1,991, 95%CI 28%-32%) of the individuals at risk had a blood pressure or lipid lowering drug prescription, respectively. In those at risk, the use of blood pressure lowering medication, increased substantially during the year of the baseline visit. Treating individuals at increased risk (≥5% 10-year risk) with lipid or blood pressure lowering medication (N = 8515 and N = 6899) would have prevented 162 and 183 CVD events, respectively, in the upcoming five years.

CONCLUSION

Primary prevention of CVD in the general population appears suboptimal. Feedback of cardiovascular risk factors resulted in a substantial increase of blood pressure lowering medication and extrapolated health benefits.

Type of menopause, age of menopause and variations in the risk of incident cardiovascular disease: pooled analysis of individual data from 10 international studies

STUDY QUESTION

How does the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) vary with type and age of menopause?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Earlier surgical menopause (e.g. <45 years) poses additional increased risk of incident CVD events, compared to women with natural menopause at the same age, and HRT use reduced the risk of CVD in women with early surgical menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Earlier age at menopause has been linked to an increased risk of CVD mortality and all-cause mortality, but the extent that this risk of CVD varies by type of menopause and the role of postmenopausal HRT use in reducing this risk is unclear.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Pooled individual-level data of 203 767 postmenopausal women from 10 observational studies that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE) consortium were included in the analysis.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Postmenopausal women who had reported menopause (type and age of menopause) and information on non-fatal CVD events were included. Type of menopause (natural menopause and surgical menopause) and age at menopause (categorised as <35, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54 and ≥55 years) were exposures of interest. Natural menopause was defined as absence of menstruation over a period of 12 months (no hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy) and surgical menopause as removal of both ovaries. The study outcome was the first non-fatal CVD (defined as either incident coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke) event ascertained from hospital medical records or self-reported. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI for non-fatal CVD events associated with natural menopause and surgical menopause.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Compared with natural menopause, surgical menopause was associated with over 20% higher risk of CVD (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.16-1.28). After the stratified analysis by age at menopause, a graded relationship for incident CVD was observed with lower age at menopause in both types of natural and surgical menopause. There was also a significant interaction between type of menopause and age at menopause (P < 0.001). Compared with natural menopause at 50-54 years, women with surgical menopause before 35 (2.55, 2.22-2.94) and 35-39 years (1.91, 1.71-2.14) had higher risk of CVD than those with natural menopause (1.59, 1.23-2.05 and 1.51, 1.33-1.72, respectively). Women who experienced surgical menopause at earlier age (<50 years) and took HRT had lower risk of incident CHD than those who were not users of HRT.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Self-reported data on type and age of menopause, no information on indication for the surgery (e.g. endometriosis and fibroids) and the exclusion of fatal CVD events may bias our results.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

In clinical practice, women who experienced natural menopause or had surgical menopause at an earlier age need close monitoring and engagement for preventive health measures and early diagnosis of CVD. Our findings also suggested that timing of menopause should be considered as an important factor in risk assessment of CVD for women. The findings on CVD lend some support to the position that elective bilateral oophorectomy (surgical menopause) at hysterectomy for benign diseases should be discouraged based on an increased risk of CVD.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

InterLACE project is funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1027196). GDM is supported by Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship (APP1121844). There are no competing interests.

Cardiorespiratory fitness improves prediction of mortality of standard cardiovascular risk scores in a Latino population

Background

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a powerful predictor of mortality. This study evaluated the predictive value of CRF for mortality in Chilean subjects without atherosclerotic disease compared with the Framingham, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and 2013 ACC/AHA risk scores and determined the incremental predictive value of CRF when added to these scores.

Hypothesis

CRF improves prediction of all‐cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)‐related mortality of the standard international risk scores.

Methods

Cross‐sectional study, which evaluated 4064 subjects between 2002 and 2016. Cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, anthropometric and biochemical parameters, and blood pressure were measured. CRF was determined by metabolic equivalents during maximum stress test. The Framingham, SCORE, and ACC/AHA risk scores were calculated for all subjects. After a median follow‐up of 9 years, all‐cause and CVD‐related mortality were assessed. Receiver operating curves were built to determine mortality prediction for CRF, the risk scores, and CRF added to the scores.

Results

As of August 2016, 99 deaths were reported, 33 of which were CVD‐related. All risk scores and CRF predicted CVD‐related mortality, with CRF identified as the best predictor: CRF: C = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82‐0.93) vs Framingham: C = 0.68 (95% CI: 0.60‐0.76), SCORE: C = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.70‐0.83), and ACC/AHA: C = 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73‐0.85). Predictive power of the three scores improved when CRF was added to the model, but this was only significant for the Framingham score.

Conclusions

CRF is a good predictor of both, all‐cause and CV mortality and a better predictor of CVD‐related deaths than standard risk scores in this population.

Prediction of cardiovascular events in rheumatoid arthritis using risk age calculations: evaluation of concordance across risk age models

BACKGROUND

In younger individuals, low absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may conceal an increased risk age and relative risk of CVD. Calculation of risk age is proposed as an adjuvant to absolute CVD risk estimation in European guidelines. We aimed to compare the discriminative ability of available risk age models in prediction of CVD in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Secondly, we also evaluated the performance of risk age models in subgroups based on RA disease characteristics.

METHODS

RA patients aged 30-70 years were included from an international consortium named A Trans-Atlantic Cardiovascular Consortium for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ATACC-RA). Prior CVD and diabetes mellitus were exclusion criteria. The discriminatory ability of specific risk age models was evaluated using c-statistics and their standard errors after calculating time until fatal or non-fatal CVD or last follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 1974 patients were included in the main analyses, and 144 events were observed during follow-up, the median follow-up being 5.0 years. The risk age models gave highly correlated results, demonstrating R2 values ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. However, risk age estimations differed > 5 years in 15-32% of patients. C-statistics ranged 0.68-0.72 with standard errors of approximately 0.03. Despite certain RA characteristics being associated with low c-indices, standard errors were high. Restricting analysis to European RA patients yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

The cardiovascular risk age and vascular age models have comparable performance in predicting CVD in RA patients. The influence of RA disease characteristics on the predictive ability of these prediction models remains inconclusive.

The recalibrated HellenicSCORE based on newly derived risk factors from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS); the HellenicSCORE II

BACKGROUND

Because of the increased burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD), country specific risk prediction models to forecast future CVD events and mortality are recommended, for primary prevention. The aim of this study was to recalibrate the HellenicSCORE, to accurately estimate the 10-year risk CVD mortality of Greek adults.

METHODS

Data from the Hellenic National Nutrition and Health Survey (HNNHS) were used (N = 1012; 37.9% males). Information on age, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total blood cholesterol from adults >40 years of age were derived following validated health survey protocols. Individual scores were calculated using these data and beta-coefficients derived from ESC SCORE.

RESULTS

Both updated HellenicSCORE II charts had lower risk estimates compared to the older version and were closer to the ESC SCORE charts, particularly at the extremes. No significant age difference by sex was observed (mean 59.5 (SD 13.1) years in total) in the population. Women had a significant higher mean total cholesterol compared to men [212.9 (39.5) vs 204.6 (41.2) mg/dl, respectively; p = 0.0343], but smoking prevalence and mean SBP was significantly higher in men [p for all, <0.001]. The mean population HellenicSCORE II score level was between 5.6% (0.2) and 7.9% (3.2) depending on the chart used, with no significant sex differences.

CONCLUSION

Although the HellenicSCORE II charts were lower, the mean population score was moderately high. This is of great importance because according to ESC guidelines, lifestyle intervention, and drug treatment should be based on an individuals' total cardiovascular risk.

Assessing Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk with Advanced Lipid Testing: State of the Science

Cardiovascular disease is the number one cause of death and disability worldwide. While substantial gains have been made in reducing cardiovascular mortality, future projections suggest that we have reached a nadir and may be at an inflection point, given the rising tide of obesity and diabetes. Evaluation and management of plasma lipids is central to the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Although the standard lipid panel represents a well-established platform to assess risk, this test alone can be insufficient and/or misleading. Advances in our understanding of atherosclerosis have led to the development of lipid-based biomarkers that help to discriminate the risk of cardiovascular disease when it is unclear. While these biomarkers provide novel information, their implementation into clinical medicine remains difficult given discrepancies in the literature, lack of assay standardisation, poor accessibility and high cost. However, additional measures of atherogenic lipoproteins or their surrogates may offer insight beyond the standard lipid panel, providing a more precise assessment of risk and more accurate assessment of lipid-lowering therapy.

Age at natural menopause and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

Background

Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease.

Methods

We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause).

Findings

Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38–1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40–44 years; 1·30, 1·22–1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45–49 years; 1·12, 1·07–1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62–2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27–1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60–69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older.

Interpretation

Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women.

Funding

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Molecular Imaging in Drug Discovery and Development

Noninvasive imaging has played an increasing role in the process of cardiovascular drug development. This review focuses specifically on the use of molecular imaging, which has been increasingly applied to improve and accelerate certain preclinical steps in drug development, including the identification of appropriate therapeutic targets, evaluation of on-target and off-target effects of candidate therapies, assessment of dose response, and the evaluation of drug or biological biodistribution and pharmacodynamics. Unlike the case in cancer medicine, in cardiovascular medicine, molecular imaging has not been used as a primary surrogate clinical end point for drug approval. However, molecular imaging has been applied in early clinical trials, particularly in phase 0 studies, to demonstrate proof-of-concept or to explain variation in treatment effect. Many of these applications where molecular imaging has been used in drug development have involved the retasking of technologies that were originally intended as clinical diagnostics. With greater experience and recognition of the rich information provided by in vivo molecular imaging, it is anticipated that it will increasingly be used to address the enormous time and costs associated with bringing a new drug to clinical launch.

TREML4 mRNA Expression and Polymorphisms in Blood Leukocytes are Associated with Atherosclerotic Lesion Extension in Coronary Artery Disease

Members of the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells (TREM) family are associated with atherosclerosis risk and progression. TREML4 is upregulated in the early phase of acute coronary syndrome. We investigated the relationship between the mRNA expression of 13 genes in blood leukocytes, TREML4 polymorphisms, and coronary artery lesion extension (Friesinger index) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) (n = 137). TREML4 rs2803495 (A > G) and rs2803496 (T > C) variants and leukocyte mRNA expression were analysed by qRT-PCR. TREML4 expression was higher in patients with major coronary artery lesions than in subjects without or with low and intermediate lesions (p < 0.05). However, TREML4 polymorphisms were not associated with coronary lesion extent. Presence of the rs2803495 G allele was not associated with increased TREML4 mRNA expression. Patients carrying the rs2803496 C allele (TC/CC genotypes) were more likely to express TREML4 mRNA than non-C allele carriers (allele C: OR 7.3, and 95% CI 1.9–27.5, p = 0.03). In conclusion, increased TREML4 mRNA expression in blood leukocytes is influenced by gene polymorphisms and is associated with more severe coronary artery lesions, suggesting its potential as a biomarker of the extent of coronary lesions in patients with CAD.

Use of Risk Assessment Tools to Guide Decision-Making in the Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Special Report From the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology

Risk assessment is a critical step in the current approach to primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Knowledge of the 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease identifies patients in higher-risk groups who are likely to have greater net benefit and lower number needed to treat for both statins and antihypertensive therapy. Current US prevention guidelines for blood pressure and cholesterol management recommend use of the pooled cohort equations to start a process of shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in primary prevention. The pooled cohort equations have been widely validated and are broadly useful for the general US clinical population. But, they may systematically underestimate risk in patients from certain racial/ethnic groups, those with lower socioeconomic status or with chronic inflammatory diseases, and overestimate risk in patients with higher socioeconomic status or who have been closely engaged with preventive healthcare services. If uncertainty remains for patients at borderline or intermediate risk, or if the patient is undecided after a patient-clinician discussion with consideration of risk enhancing factors (eg, family history), additional testing with measurement of coronary artery calcium can be useful to reclassify risk estimates and improve selection of patients for use or avoidance of statin therapy. This special report summarizes the rationale and evidence base for quantitative risk assessment, reviews strengths and limitations of existing risk scores, discusses approaches for refining individual risk estimates for patients, and provides practical advice regarding implementation of risk assessment and decision-making strategies in clinical practice.

Use of Risk Assessment Tools to Guide Decision-Making in the Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Special Report From the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology

Risk assessment is a critical step in the current approach to primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Knowledge of the 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease identifies patients in higher-risk groups who are likely to have greater net benefit and lower number needed to treat for both statins and antihypertensive therapy. Current U.S. prevention guidelines for blood pressure and cholesterol management recommend use of the pooled cohort equations to start a process of shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in primary prevention. The pooled cohort equations have been widely validated and are broadly useful for the general U.S. clinical population. But, they may systematically underestimate risk in patients from certain racial/ethnic groups, those with lower socioeconomic status or with chronic inflammatory diseases, and overestimate risk in patients with higher socioeconomic status or who have been closely engaged with preventive healthcare services. If uncertainty remains for patients at borderline or intermediate risk, or if the patient is undecided after a patient-clinician discussion with consideration of risk enhancing factors (e.g., family history), additional testing with measurement of coronary artery calcium can be useful to reclassify risk estimates and improve selection of patients for use or avoidance of statin therapy. This special report summarizes the rationale and evidence base for quantitative risk assessment, reviews strengths and limitations of existing risk scores, discusses approaches for refining individual risk estimates for patients, and provides practical advice regarding implementation of risk assessment and decision-making strategies in clinical practice.

A systematic review of the effect of mobile health on cardiac rehabilitation among coronary heart disease patients

Objective

Mobile health (mHealth) provides an innovative and effective approach to promote prevention and management of coronary heart disease. However, the magnitude of its effects is unclear. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the impact of mHealth-based cardiac rehabilitation outcomes among coronary heart disease patients.

Methods

Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PubMed, Google Scholar, NICE, and Cochrane library were searched for randomized controlled trials published between January 2002 and March 2017 which compared mHealth with conventional cardiac rehabilitation programs among coronary heart disease patients.

Results

Eight articles were included in this review. The impact of mHealth interventions on physical activity, medicine adherence, smoking cessation, level of anxiety, and quality of life was inconsistent among the articles.

Conclusions

Further research is needed to conclusively determine the impact of mHealth interventions on cardiac rehabilitation outcomes. The limitations of the included studies (e.g., inadequate sample size, failure to address the core components of cardiac rehabilitation programs, and lack of theory-based design) should be taken into account when designing future studies.

Ultrasound Molecular Imaging of Atherosclerosis Using Small-Peptide Targeting Ligands Against Endothelial Markers of Inflammation and Oxidative Stress

The aim of this study was to evaluate a panel of endothelium-targeted microbubble (MB) ultrasound contrast agents bearing small peptide ligands as a human-ready approach for molecular imaging of markers of high-risk atherosclerotic plaque. Small peptide ligands with established affinity for human P-selectin, VCAM-1, LOX-1 and von Willebrand factor (VWF) were conjugated to the surface of lipid-stabilized MBs. Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) molecular imaging of the thoracic aorta was performed in wild-type and gene-targeted mice with advanced atherosclerosis (DKO). Histology was performed on carotid endarterectomy samples from patients undergoing surgery for unstable atherosclerosis to assess target expression in humans. In DKO mice, CEUS signal for all four targeted MBs was significantly higher than that for control MBs, and was three to sevenfold higher than in wild-type mice, with the highest signal achieved for VCAM-1 and VWF. All molecular targets were present on the patient plaque surface but expression was greatest for VCAM-1 and VWF. We conclude that ultrasound contrast agents bearing small peptide ligands feasible for human use can be targeted against endothelial cell adhesion molecules for inflammatory cells and platelets for imaging advanced atherosclerotic disease.

Ethnic disparities in estimated cardiovascular disease risk in Amsterdam, the Netherlands : The HELIUS study

Background

Ethnic differences have been reported in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. It is still unclear which ethnic groups are most at risk for CVD when all traditional CVD risk factors are considered together as overall risk.

Objectives

To examine ethnic differences in overall estimated CVD risk and the risk factors that contribute to these differences.

Design

Using data of the multi-ethnic HELIUS study (HEalthy LIfe in an Urban Setting) from Amsterdam, we examined whether estimated CVD risk and risk factors among those eligible for CVD risk estimation differed between participants of Dutch, South Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish and Moroccan origin. Using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, we estimated risk of fatal CVD and risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD. These risks were compared between ethnic groups via age-adjusted linear regression analyses.

Results

The SCORE algorithm was applicable to 9,128 participants. Relative to the fatal CVD risk of participants of Dutch origin, South Asian Surinamese participants showed a higher fatal CVD risk, Ghanaian males a lower fatal CVD risk, and participants of other ethnic origins a similar fatal CVD risk. For fatal plus non-fatal CVD risk, African Surinamese and Turkish men also showed a higher risk. When diabetes was incorporated in the CVD risk algorithm, all but Ghanaian men showed a higher CVD risk relative to the participants of Dutch origin (betas ranging from 0.98–3.10%). The CVD risk factors that contribute the most to these ethnic differences varied between ethnic groups.

Conclusion

Ethnic minority groups are at a greater estimated risk of fatal plus non-fatal CVD relative to the group of native Dutch. Further research is necessary to determine whether this will translate to ethnic differences in CVD incidence and, if so, whether ethnic-specific CVD prevention strategies are warranted.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-018-1107-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Update on the laboratory investigation of dyslipidemias

The role of the clinical laboratory is evolving to provide more information to clinicians to assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and target therapy more effectively. Current routine methods to measure LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), the Friedewald calculation, ultracentrifugation, electrophoresis and homogeneous direct methods have established limitations. Studies suggest that LDL and HDL size or particle concentration are alternative methods to predict future CVD risk. At this time there is no consensus role for lipoprotein particle or subclasses in CVD risk assessment. LDL and HDL particle concentration are measured by several methods, namely gradient gel electrophoresis, ultracentrifugation-vertical auto profile, nuclear magnetic resonance and ion mobility. It has been suggested that HDL functional assays may be better predictors of CVD risk. To assess the issue of lipoprotein subclasses/particles and HDL function as potential CVD risk markers robust, simple, validated analytical methods are required. In patients with small dense LDL particles, even a perfect measure of LDL-C will not reflect LDL particle concentration. Non-HDL-C is an alternative measurement and includes VLDL and CM remnant cholesterol and LDL-C. However, apolipoprotein B measurement may more accurately reflect LDL particle numbers. Non-fasting lipid measurements have many practical advantages. Defining thresholds for treatment with new measurements of CVD risk remain a challenge. In families with genetic variants, ApoCIII and lipoprotein (a) may be additional risk factors. Recognition of familial causes of dyslipidemias and diagnosis in childhood will result in early treatment. This review discusses the limitations in current laboratory technologies to predict CVD risk and reviews the evidence for emergent approaches using newer biomarkers in clinical practice.

Coronary endothelial function is better in healthy premenopausal women than in healthy older postmenopausal women and men

BACKGROUND

Premenopausal women have fewer cardiovascular disease (CVD) events than postmenopausal women and age-matched men, but the reasons are not fully understood. Coronary endothelial function (CEF), a barometer of coronary vascular health, promises important insights into age and sex differences in atherosclerotic CVD risk, but has not been well characterized in healthy individuals because of the invasive nature of conventional CEF measurements. Recently developed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) methods were used to quantify CEF (coronary area and flow changes in response to isometric handgrip exercise (IHE), an endothelial-dependent stressor) to test the hypothesis that healthy women have better CEF compared to men particularly at a younger age.

METHODS

The study participants were 50 healthy women and men with no history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or traditional CV risk factors and Agatston coronary calcium score (on prior CT) <10 for those ≥ 50 years. Coronary cross-sectional area (CSA) measurements and flow-velocity encoded images (CBF) were obtained at baseline and during continuous IHE using 3T breath-hold cine MRI-IHE. CEF (%change in CSA and CBF with IHE) comparisons were made according to age and sex, and all women ≥50 years were post-menopausal.

RESULTS

In the overall population, there were no differences in CEF between men and women. However, when stratified by age and sex the mean changes in CSA and CBF during IHE were higher in younger premenopausal women than older postmenopausal women (%CSA: 15.2±10.6% vs. 7.0±6.8%, p = 0.03 and %CBF: 59.0±37.0% vs. 30.5±24.5% p = 0.02). CBF change was also nearly two-fold better in premenopausal women than age-matched men (59.0±37.0% vs. 33.6±12.3%, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Premenopausal women have nearly two-fold better mean CEF compared to postmenopausal women. CEF, measured by CBF change is also better in premenopausal women than age-matched men but there are no sex differences in CEF after menopause. Fundamental age and sex differences in CEF exist and may contribute to differences in the development and clinical manifestations of atherosclerotic CVD, and guide future trials targeting sex-specific mechanisms of atherogenesis.

Combined use of short-term and long-term cardiovascular risk scores in primary prevention: an assessment of clinical utility

AIMS

To evaluate the clinical utility of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification based on a combined use of short-term and long-term risk scores in the primary prevention setting.

METHODS

CVD-free participants 40-65 years old initially to seven population-based cohorts enrolled in northern and central Italy were stratified as 'low' (ESC-SCORE ≤ 1%), 'intermediate' (SCORE 1-4%) and 'moderate/high' short-term CVD risk (SCORE ≥ 4% or diabetes). The long-term CVD risk was estimated using the CAMUNI-MATISS model, validated for the Italian population. Participants were followed up for a median time of 16 years to ascertain the first major CVD event, fatal or nonfatal. To compare the 'combined' (SCORE + CAMUNI-MATISS) with the 'current' (SCORE alone) stratification, we estimated the difference in Net Benefit between the two strategies.

RESULTS

Study sample included 3935 men (468 CVD events) and 4393 women (210 events). Under the 'current' stratification, 76% of men and 21% of women were at 'intermediate' risk and eligible to treatment. Only 40% of them had elevated predicted long-term risk and could have received indication to treatment under the 'combined' strategy. The latter would have saved 3 and 3.5 unnecessary treatments per every CVD case in men and women, respectively, and the Net Benefit significantly increased [men: 4.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7-5.6; women: 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7-6.9].Similarly, among the 74% of women not receiving indication for prevention because at 'low' short-term risk, the 'combined' stratification significantly increased the Net Benefit (1.4, 95% CI: 0.6-2.1) and reduced from 40 to 10% the proportion of events occurring among women not eligible to any preventive action.

CONCLUSION

In the Italian population, a combination of validated short-term and long-term CVD risk scores has the potential to select for prevention women whose risk is currently not fully addressed and to reduce unnecessary costly treatment.

The Dutch SCORE-based risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease

Introduction

Dutch cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of modified SCORE risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure). This combined risk is derived from the SCORE mortality risk using multipliers. These multipliers have been shown to underestimate overall CVD risk. We aimed to compare the current Dutch risk charts with charts that estimate a broader range of clinically relevant CVD using updated multipliers.

Methods

We constructed new risk charts for 10-year CVD using updated, recently published multipliers from the EPIC-Norfolk study, based on ratios of fatal CVD to clinically relevant CVD (fatal plus nonfatal CVD requiring hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and aortic aneurysm). Our primary outcome was the proportion of the three risk categories, i. e. ‘high risk’ (>20% 10-year risk), ‘intermediate risk’ (10–19%) and ‘low risk’ (<10%) in the new risk charts as compared with the current risk charts.

Results

Applying the updated fatal CVD/clinical CVD multipliers led to a marked increase in the high-risk categories (109 (27%) vs. 244 (61%), (p < 0.001)), an absolute increase of 229%. Similarly, the number of low-risk categories decreased (190 (48%) vs. 81 (20%) (p < 0.001)).

Conclusion

The current Dutch risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of clinical CVD, even in the first 10 years. Even when analyses are restricted to CVD events that required hospitalisation, true 10-year risks are more than double the currently estimated risks. Future guidelines may be revised to reflect these findings.