Effect of clean indoor air laws on smokers: the clean air module of the SimSmoke computer simulation model

Peer mentoring for smoking cessation in public housing: A mixed-methods study

Introduction

Tobacco use disproportionately affects low-income African American communities. The recent public housing smoke-free policy has increased the demand for effective smoking cessation services and programs in such settings.

Methods

This mixed-method pilot study explored feasibility and potential impact of a peer-mentoring program for smoking cessation in a public housing unit. The quantitative study used a quasi-experimental design while qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions with peer mentors and participants. Three residents of the public housing complex were trained as peer mentors. Each peer mentor recruited up to 10 smokers in the residence and provided them individual support for 12 weeks. All participants were offered Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT). A follow-up investigation was conducted 3 months after completion of the 12-week intervention. At baseline and follow-up, the participants' smoking status was measured using self-report and was verified using exhaled carbon monoxide (eCO) monitoring.

Results

The intervention group was composed of 30 current smokers who received the peer-mentoring intervention. The control group was composed of 14 individuals. Overall mean eCO levels dropped from 26 ppm (SD 19.0) at baseline to 12 (SD 6.0) at follow-up (P < 0.01). Participants who were enrolled in our program were more likely to have non-smoking eCO levels (<7 ppm) at follow-up (23.3%) compared to those who did not enroll (14.3%).

Conclusion

Our program is feasible for low-income predominantly African American communities. Using peers as mentors may be helpful in providing services for hard-to-reach populations. Given the non-randomized design of our study, randomized trials are needed to test the efficacy of our program in the future.

The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

BACKGROUND

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence was decreasing in Kentucky before 2007, but has since increased. This study examines the impact of policies on cigarette and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

METHODS

Using data from the large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) and information on state-specific tobacco policies, Kentucky SimSmoke is updated and extended to incorporate exclusive SLT and dual cigarette and SLT use. The model is validated using survey data through 2017. The model was used to estimate the impact on smoking and SLT prevalence and attributable deaths of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 and the impact of stronger future policies implemented in 2018 and maintained through 2060.

RESULTS

SimSmoke generally reflects trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS-CPS and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), but underestimated the increase in SLT prevalence in recent years. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 reduced male and female cigarette use by 23.7% and 23.0%, and male and female SLT use by 4.9% by 2018, averting 9018 tobacco-attributable deaths by 2018, increasing to 89 547 by 2060. The largest reductions in cigarette and SLT use were attributed to cigarette price increases. Strengthening tobacco control policies could reduce smoking prevalence by 41% and 40%, and reduce SLT prevalence by 33% and 25% for males and females by 2060.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that cigarette-oriented policies were effective in reducing SLT use but have been less successful in recent years. Future use rates can be further reduced through more restrictive statewide policies, which also target non-combustible nicotine products.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012-2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5-11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1-13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8-14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4-15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18-44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions: a systematic review of models

BACKGROUND

To prioritise tobacco control interventions, simulating their health impacts is valuable. We undertook a systematic review of tobacco intervention simulation models to assess model structure and input variations that may render model outputs non-comparable.

METHODS

We applied a Medline search with keywords intersecting modelling and tobacco. Papers were limited to those modelling health outputs (eg, mortality, health-adjusted life years), and at least two of cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Data were extracted for each simulation model with ≥3 arising papers, including: model type, untimed or with time steps and trends in business-as-usual (BAU) tobacco prevalence and epidemiology.

RESULTS

Of 1911 papers, 186 met the inclusion criteria, including 13 eligible simulation models. The SimSmoke model had the largest number of publications (n=46), followed by Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes (n=12) and Tobacco Policy Model (n=10). Two of 13 models only estimated deaths averted, 1 had no time steps, 5 had no future trends in BAU tobacco prevalence, 9 had no future trends in BAU disease epidemiology and 7 had no time lags from quitting tobacco to reversal of health harm.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists in simulation models, making outputs substantively non-comparable between models. Ranking of interventions by one model may be valid. However, this may not be true if, for example, interventions that differentially affect age groups (eg, a tobacco-free generation policy vs increased cessation among adults) do not account for plausible future trends. Greater standardisation of model structures and outputs will allow comparison across models and countries, and for comparisons of the impact of tobacco control interventions with other preventive interventions.

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

INTRODUCTION

A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use.

METHODS

Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplement and the 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2018 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey and used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018. Analysis was conducted in April 2019.

RESULTS

The model validated well for cigarette and earlier smokeless tobacco use, but it predicted smokeless tobacco use less well in recent years. The model projected that male (female) smoking prevalence was 35% (36%) lower in relative terms by 2018 and 43% (44%) lower by 2040 owing to policies, with lesser reductions projected for male smokeless tobacco use. Tobacco-attributable deaths were reduced by 7,800 by 2018 and 46,900 by 2040. Price increases, primarily through taxes, were projected to have had the greatest impact on cigarette use followed by smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment policies, tobacco control campaign expenditures, and youth access enforcement. Similar effects were projected for smokeless tobacco use, except that smoke-free air laws had smaller effects.

CONCLUSIONS

As cigarettes remain the dominant form of nicotine delivery product, cigarette-oriented policies may be an effective means of reducing the use of all nicotine delivery products. However, noncigarette-oriented policies may also play an important role.

Progress of smoke-free policy adoption at district level in Indonesia: A policy diffusion study

BACKGROUND

Even though Indonesia has not ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), district and provincial stakeholders are increasingly adopting smoke-free policies (SFPs). This study aimed to 1) assess whether local SFP adoption in Indonesia followed a horizontal or vertical diffusion pattern and 2) identify district characteristics that are associated with the SFP adoption.

METHODS

Policy documents enacted during 2004-2015 were compiled from 33 provinces and 510 districts in Indonesia. First, we described the geographical distributions of the policy adoption. Second, we ran logistic regression to assess the associations of district SFP adoption with having adjacent districts that had adopted SFPs (i.e. horizontal diffusion) and being situated in a province that had adopted SFPs (i.e. vertical diffusion). Third, the associations between district characteristics (population density, GDP, tobacco production) and SFP adoption were assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

By 2015, a total of 17 provinces and 143 districts had adopted SFPs. Districts with SFPs were more concentrated in the western part of Indonesia. Adoption was more likely in districts of which adjacent districts had already adopted SFPs (OR: 2.02; 95%CI: 1.26-3.23), and less likely when the province had already adopted SFPs (OR: 0.19; 95%CI: 0.11 - 0.34). Adoption was more likely in districts with higher GDP (OR high vs low GDP: 3.28; 95%CI: 1.80-5.98) and higher population density (OR high vs low density: 6.57; 95%CI: 3.63-11.9). High tobacco production showed a strong inverse association with SPF adoption (OR high vs. no production: 0.36; 95%CI: 0.17-0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Smoke-free policy adoption in Indonesian districts followed a horizontal diffusion pattern, with poorer and rural districts lagging behind in their policy adoption. Our results indicate that local-level policy development is important for smoke-free policy adoption in countries with decentralised governments, but that effective advocacy is needed to counteract tobacco industry interference.

The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Background

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence had been declining in the US prior to 2002 but has since increased. Knowledge about the impact of tobacco control policies on SLT and cigarette use is limited. This study examines the interrelationship between policies, cigarette use, and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

Methods

Using data from large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement and information on policies implemented, US SimSmoke was updated and extended to incorporate SLT use. The model distinguishes between exclusive SLT and dual use of SLT and cigarettes, and considers the effect of implementing individual and combined tobacco control policies on smoking and SLT use, and on deaths attributable to their use. After validating against Tobacco Use Supplement (TUS) survey data through 2015, the model was used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2017.

Results

SimSmoke reflected trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS, but over-estimated the reductions, especially among 18–24 year olds, until 2002 and under-estimated the reductions from 2011 to 2015. By 2015, SimSmoke projections of exclusive SLT and dual use were close to TUS estimates, but under-estimated reductions in both from 1993 to 2002 and failed to estimate the growth in male exclusive SLT use, especially among 18–24 year olds, from 2011 to 2015. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2017 reduced exclusive cigarette use by about 35%, dual use by 32.5% and SLT use by 16.5%, yielding a reduction of 7.5 million tobacco-attributable deaths by 2067. The largest reductions were attributed to tax increases.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that cigarette-oriented policies may be effective in also reducing the use of other tobacco products. However, further information is needed on the effect of tobacco control policies on exclusive and dual SLT use and the role of industry.

Projecting the effects of tobacco control policies in the USA through microsimulation: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Smoking remains the leading cause of preventable death in the USA but can be reduced through policy interventions. Computational models of smoking can provide estimates of the projected impact of tobacco control policies and can be used to inform public health decision making. We outline a protocol for simulating the effects of tobacco policies on population health outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We extend the Smoking History Generator (SHG), a microsimulation model based on data from the National Health Interview Surveys, to evaluate the effects of tobacco control policies on projections of smoking prevalence and mortality in the USA. The SHG simulates individual life trajectories including smoking initiation, cessation and mortality. We illustrate the application of the SHG policy module for four types of tobacco control policies at the national and state levels: smoke-free air laws, cigarette taxes, increasing tobacco control programme expenditures and raising the minimum age of legal access to tobacco. Smoking initiation and cessation rates are modified by age, birth cohort, gender and years since policy implementation. Initiation and cessation rate modifiers are adjusted for differences across age groups and the level of existing policy coverage. Smoking prevalence, the number of population deaths avoided, and life-years gained are calculated for each policy scenario at the national and state levels. The model only considers direct individual benefits through reduced smoking and does not consider benefits through reduced exposure to secondhand smoke.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

A web-based interface is being developed to integrate the results of the simulations into a format that allows the user to explore the projected effects of tobacco control policies in the USA. Usability testing is being conducted in which experts provide feedback on the interface. Development of this tool is under way, and a publicly accessible website is available at http://www.tobaccopolicyeffects.org.

Tobacco policy reform and population-wide antismoking activities in Australia: the impact on smoking during pregnancy

Introduction

This study examined the impact of antismoking activities targeting the general population and an advertising campaign targeting smoking during pregnancy on the prevalence of smoking during pregnancy in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

Methods

Monthly prevalence of smoking during pregnancy was calculated using linked health records for all pregnancies resulting in a birth (800 619) in NSW from 2003 to 2011. Segmented regression of interrupted time series data assessed the effects of the extension of the ban on smoking in enclosed public places to include licensed premises (evaluated in combination with the mandating of graphic warnings on cigarette packs), television advertisements targeting smoking in the general population, print and online magazine advertisements targeting smoking during pregnancy and increased tobacco tax. Analyses were conducted for all pregnancies, and for the population stratified by maternal age, parity and socioeconomic status. Further analyses adjusted for the effect of the Baby Bonus maternity payment.

Results

Prevalence of smoking during pregnancy decreased from 2003 to 2011 overall (0.39% per month), and for all strata examined. For pregnancies overall, none of the evaluated initiatives was associated with a change in the trend of smoking during pregnancy. Significant changes associated with increased tobacco tax and the extension of the smoking ban (in combination with graphic warnings) were found in some strata.

Conclusions

The declining prevalence of smoking during pregnancy between 2003 and 2011, while encouraging, does not appear to be directly related to general population antismoking activities or a pregnancy-specific campaign undertaken in this period.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model

INTRODUCTION

Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs).

METHODS

The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014.

RESULTS

SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke

INTRODUCTION

The year 2014 marked the 50th Anniversary of the first Surgeon General's Report. This paper estimates the effect of tobacco control policies in the U.S. after the 1964 Report using the SimSmoke tobacco control simulation model.

METHODS

SimSmoke uses National Health Interview Survey data from 1965 through 2012 on smoking prevalence, initiation, and cessation rates, and incorporates policies implemented since 1965. The model projects smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from 1965 through 2065 and is validated against National Health Interview Survey data. Counterfactual scenarios with policies constant since 1965 and with individual policies are estimated. Analysis was conducted in February 2014.

RESULTS

SimSmoke generally validated well during the time period from 1965 through 2012. As a result of all policies, smoking prevalence is estimated to have fallen by almost 55% by 2014, with a total of 2 million SADs averted from 1965 through 2014, increasing to 20.1 million SADs by 2065. The Fairness Doctrine is estimated to have reduced adult smoking prevalence by about 24% by 2014 and averted 10.4 million SADs by 2065, while price increases reduced smoking prevalence by 24% by 2014 and averted 7.3 million SADs by 2065. Smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment, and tobacco control spending individually reduced smoking rates by 3%-5.5% by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

By 2014, SimSmoke predicts a 53% reduction in smoking rates and almost 2 million SADs averted due to polices implemented since the 1964 Surgeon General's Report, with most of the health benefit still to occur in future years.

Estimating the Potential Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adverse Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States Using the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model

INTRODUCTION

Numerous studies document the causal relationship between prenatal smoking and adverse maternal and child health (MCH) outcomes. Studies also reveal the impact that tobacco control policies have on prenatal smoking. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of tobacco control policies on prenatal smoking prevalence and adverse MCH outcomes.

METHODS

The US SimSmoke simulation model was extended to consider adverse MCH outcomes. The model estimates prenatal smoking prevalence and, applying standard attribution methods, uses estimates of MCH prevalence and relative smoking risks to estimate smoking-attributable MCH outcomes over time. The model then estimates the effect of tobacco control policies on adverse birth outcomes averted.

RESULTS

Different tobacco control policies have varying impacts on the number of smoking-attributable adverse MCH birth outcomes. Higher cigarette taxes and comprehensive marketing bans individually have the biggest impact with a 5% to 10% reduction across all outcomes for the period from 2015 to 2065. The policies with the lowest impact (2%-3% decrease) during this period are cessation treatment, health warnings, and complete smoke-free laws. Combinations of all policies with each tax level lead to 23% to 28% decreases across all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate the substantial impact of strong tobacco control policies for preventing adverse MCH outcomes, including long-term health implications for children exposed to low birth weight and preterm birth. These benefits are often overlooked in discussions of tobacco control.

Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke, a Policy Simulation Model

Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

Rating the effectiveness of local tobacco policies for reducing youth smoking

Important questions remain regarding the effectiveness of local tobacco policies for preventing and reducing youth tobacco use and the relative importance of these policies. The aims of this paper are to: (1) compare policy effectiveness ratings provided by researchers and tobacco prevention specialists for individual local tobacco policies, and (2) develop and describe a systematic approach to score communities for locally-implemented tobacco policies. We reviewed municipal codes of 50 California communities to identify local tobacco regulations in five sub-domains. We then developed an instrument to rate the effectiveness of these policies and administered it to an expert panel of 40 tobacco researchers and specialists. We compared mean policy effectiveness ratings obtained from researchers and prevention specialists and used it to score the 50 communities. High inter-rater reliabilities obtained for each sub-domain indicated substantial agreement among the raters about relative policy effectiveness. Results showed that, although researchers and prevention specialists differed on the mean levels of policy ratings, their relative rank ordering of the effectiveness of policy sub-domains were very similar. While both researchers and prevention specialists viewed local outdoor clean air policies as least effective in preventing and reducing youth cigarette smoking, they rated tobacco sales policies and advertising and promotion as more effective than the other policies. Moreover, we found high correlations between community scores generated from researchers' and prevention specialists' ratings. This approach can be used to inform research on local policies and prevention efforts and help bridge the gap between research and practice.

Association between local indoor smoking ordinances in Massachusetts and cigarette smoking during pregnancy: a multilevel analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the association between local clean indoor air ordinances and prenatal maternal smoking across 351 municipalities in Massachusetts before the 2004 statewide ban and to test the effect of time since ordinance adoption on the association.

METHODS

The authors linked 2002 birth certificate data of women who gave birth in the state and reported a Massachusetts residence (n=67,584) to a database of indoor smoking ordinances in all municipalities. Multilevel regression models accounting for individual- and municipality-level variables estimate the associations between the presence of local smoking ordinances, strength of the ordinances, time since ordinance adoption and prenatal smoking.

RESULTS

Compared with those living in municipalities with no ordinances, women living in municipalities with a smoking ordinance had lower odds of prenatal smoking (OR=0.72, CI=0.53 to 0.98). No effect was found for 100% smoke-free ordinances. For the analyses testing the effect of time, pregnant women living in municipalities with ordinances enacted >2 years were less likely to smoke than those in municipalities with more recent (<1 year) ordinances.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing smoking among women of reproductive age is a public health priority. This study suggests that indoor smoking ordinances were associated with lower prenatal smoking prevalence and the favourable effect increased over time. Findings highlight the public health benefit of tobacco control policies.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model

BACKGROUND

Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.

PURPOSE

To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies.

RESULTS

SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041.

CONCLUSIONS

Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041.

The potential of smoking cessation programmes and a smoking ban in public places: Comparing gain in life expectancy and cost effectiveness

Background: Interventions aimed at reducing the number of smokers are generally believed to be cost effective. However as the cost of the interventions should be paid up front whereas the gains in life years only appear in the future – the budgetary consequences might be a barrier to implementing such interventions. Aims: The aim of the present paper was to assess the long-term cost effectiveness as well as the short-term (10 years) budget consequences of cessation programmes and a smoking ban in enclosed public places. Methods: We develop a population-based Markov model capable of analyzing both interventions and assess long-term costs effectiveness as well as short-term budgetary consequences and outcome gains. The smoking cessation programme model was based on data from the Danish National Smoking Cessation Database (SCDB), while the model of the smoking ban was based on effect estimates found in the literature. Results: On a population level the effect of a smoking ban has the largest potential compared with the effect of smoking cessation programmes. Our results suggest that smoking cessation programmes are cost saving and generate life-years, whereas the costs per life-year gained by a smoking ban are 40,645 to 64,462 DKK (100 DKK = €13.4). These results are conservative as they do not include the healthcare cost saving related to reduced passive smoking. Conclusions: Our results indicate that smoking cessation programmes and a smoking ban in enclosed public places both in the short term and the long term are cost-effective strategies compared with the status quo.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of India's 2008 prohibition of smoking in public places in Gujarat

Tobacco smoking and exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke are associated with disability and premature mortality in low and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of implementing India's Prohibition of Smoking in Public Places Rules in the state of Gujarat, compared to implementation of a complete smoking ban. Using standard cost-effectiveness analysis methods, the cost of implementing the alternatives was evaluated against the years of life saved and cases of acute myocardial infarction averted by reductions in smoking prevalence and secondhand smoke exposure. After one year, it is estimated that a complete smoking ban in Gujarat would avert 17,000 additional heart attacks and gain 438,000 life years (LY). A complete ban is highly cost-effective when key variables including legislation effectiveness were varied in the sensitivity analyses. Without including medical treatment costs averted, the cost-effectiveness ratio ranges from $2 to $112 per LY gained and $37 to $386 per acute myocardial infarction averted. Implementing a complete smoking ban would be a cost saving alternative to the current partial legislation in terms of reducing tobacco-attributable disease in Gujarat.

A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies

OBJECTIVE

The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts.

METHOD

A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking.

RESULTS

First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%).

CONCLUSIONS

A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.

Legislative smoking bans for reducing secondhand smoke exposure, smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption

BACKGROUND

Smoking bans have been implemented in a variety of settings, as well as being part of policy in many jurisdictions to protect the public and employees from the harmful effects of secondhand smoke (SHS). They also offer the potential to influence social norms and smoking behaviour of those populations they affect.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the extent to which legislation-based smoking bans or restrictions reduce exposure to SHS, help people who smoke to reduce tobacco consumption or lower smoking prevalence and affect the health of those in areas which have a ban or restriction in place.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Specialised Register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Conference Paper Index, and reference lists and bibliographies of included studies. We also checked websites of various organisations. Date of most recent search; July 1st 2009.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered studies that reported legislative smoking bans and restrictions affecting populations. The minimum standard was having a ban explicitly in the study and a minimum of six months follow-up for measures of smoking behaviour. We included randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies (i.e. non-randomized controlled studies), controlled before and after studies, interrupted-time series as defined by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care Group, and uncontrolled pre- and post-ban data.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Characteristics and content of the interventions, participants, outcomes and methods of the included studies were extracted by one author and checked by a second. Because of heterogeneity in the design and content of the studies, we did not attempt a meta-analysis. We evaluated the studies using qualitative narrative synthesis.

MAIN RESULTS

There were 50 studies included in this review. Thirty-one studies reported exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) with 19 studies measuring it using biomarkers. There was consistent evidence that smoking bans reduced exposure to SHS in workplaces, restaurants, pubs and in public places. There was a greater reduction in exposure to SHS in hospitality workers compared to the general population. We failed to detect any difference in self-reported exposure to SHS in cars. There was no change in either the prevalence or duration of reported exposure to SHS in the home as a result of implementing legislative bans. Twenty-three studies reported measures of active smoking, often as a co-variable rather than an end-point in itself, with no consistent evidence of a reduction in smoking prevalence attributable to the ban. Total tobacco consumption was reduced in studies where prevalence declined. Twenty-five studies reported health indicators as an outcome. Self-reported respiratory and sensory symptoms were measured in 12 studies, with lung function measured in five of them. There was consistent evidence of a reduction in hospital admissions for cardiac events as well as an improvement in some health indicators after the ban.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Introduction of a legislative smoking ban does lead to a reduction in exposure to passive smoking. Hospitality workers experienced a greater reduction in exposure to SHS after implementing the ban compared to the general population. There is limited evidence about the impact on active smoking but the trend is downwards. There is some evidence of an improvement in health outcomes. The strongest evidence is the reduction seen in admissions for acute coronary syndrome. There is an increase in support for and compliance with smoking bans after the legislation.

Avoidable global cancer deaths and total deaths from smoking

On the basis of current consumption patterns, approximately 450 million adults will be killed by smoking between 2000 and 2050. At least half of these adults will die between 30 and 69 years of age, losing decades of productive life. Cancer and the total deaths due to smoking have fallen sharply in men in high-income countries but will rise globally unless current smokers, most of whom live in low- and middle-income countries, stop smoking before or during middle age. Tripling the taxes on tobacco could rapidly raise cessation rates and deter the initiation of smoking. Higher taxes, regulations on smoking and information for consumers could avoid at least 115 million smoking-associated deaths in the next few decades, including around 25 million cancer deaths.

A longitudinal study of policy effect (smoke-free legislation) on smoking norms: ITC Scotland/United Kingdom

INTRODUCTION

The longitudinal ITC Scotland/U.K. survey was used to investigate adult smokers' support for smoke-free legislation and whether this support was associated with higher quit intentions at follow-up, either directly or indirectly, via the mediation of perceived social unacceptability of smoking.

METHODS

Structural equation modeling was employed to compare differences between the two samples (507 adult smokers from Scotland and 507 from the rest of the United Kingdom) across two waves (February/March 2006 and March 2007). During these two waves, a smoking ban was introduced in Scotland but not the rest of the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

For smokers in both samples, support for smoke-free legislation at baseline significantly heightened perceived unacceptability of smoking, although perceptions of unacceptability were somewhat stronger in Scotland than the rest of the United Kingdom postban. Unlike the rest of the United Kingdom, support for a ban at baseline among smokers in Scotland was associated with higher quit intentions at follow-up. For both samples, quit intentions were significantly associated with heightened perceived unacceptability at follow-up. The overall variance explained in quit intentions was greater in Scotland than in the rest of the United Kingdom but not significantly so.

DISCUSSION

Support for smoke-free legislation at baseline significantly increased support at follow-up for both samples. However, this did not independently increase quit intentions among smokers from both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that normative influences are one of the mechanisms through which comprehensive smoke-free legislation influences quit intentions.

The role of tobacco control policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in an Eastern European nation: results from the Albania SimSmoke simulation model

The Albania SimSmoke simulation model is used to examine the effects of tobacco control policies. The model is used to consider the projected trends in smoking prevalence and associated smoking-attributable deaths in the absence of new policies, and then to examine the effect of new policies that are consistent with the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) on these outcomes. The model shows that significant inroads to reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through tax increases. Acomprehensive strategy to further reduce smoking rates should include a media campaign complete with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, a comprehensive cessation treatment program, strong health warnings, advertising bans, and youth access laws. Besides presenting the benefits of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy, the model helps to identify important information needed for both modeling and policymaking. The effectiveness of future tobacco control policy will require proper surveillance and evaluation schemes for Albania.

Impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on monthly adult smoking prevalence

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the impact of several tobacco control policies and televised antismoking advertising on adult smoking prevalence.

METHODS

We used a population survey in which smoking prevalence was measured each month from 1995 through 2006. Time-series analysis assessed the effect on smoking prevalence of televised antismoking advertising (with gross audience rating points [GRPs] per month), cigarette costliness, monthly sales of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and bupropion, and smoke-free restaurant laws.

RESULTS

Increases in cigarette costliness and exposure to tobacco control media campaigns significantly reduced smoking prevalence. We found a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalence by either exposing the population to televised antismoking ads an average of almost 4 times per month (390 GRPs) or by increasing the costliness of a pack of cigarettes by 0.03% of gross average weekly earnings. Monthly sales of NRT and bupropion, exposure to NRT advertising, and smoke-free restaurant laws had no detectable impact on smoking prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in the real price of cigarettes and tobacco control mass media campaigns broadcast at sufficient exposure levels and at regular intervals are critical for reducing population smoking prevalence.

Methodologies used to estimate tobacco-attributable mortality: a review

BACKGROUND

One of the most important measures for ascertaining the impact of tobacco on a population is the estimation of the mortality attributable to its use. To measure this, a number of indirect methods of quantification are available, yet there is no consensus as to which furnishes the best information. This study sought to provide a critical overview of the different methods of attribution of mortality due to tobacco consumption.

METHOD

A search was made in the Medline database until March 2005 in order to obtain papers that addressed the methodology employed for attributing mortality to tobacco use.

RESULTS

Of the total of 7 methods obtained, the most widely used were the prevalence methods, followed by the approach proposed by Peto et al, with the remainder being used in a minority of studies.

CONCLUSION

Different methodologies are used to estimate tobacco attributable mortality, but their methodological foundations are quite similar in all. Mainly, they are based on the calculation of proportional attributable fractions. All methods show limitations of one type or another, sometimes common to all methods and sometimes specific.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths caused by smoking in Arizona: results from the Arizona tobacco policy simulation model

Arizona was one of the first few states to implement a comprehensive tobacco control program. The effect of that program is examined using a computer-simulation model (SimSmoke) developed for the purposes of evaluation, planning, and justifying policies. This approach assesses the impact to date of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and generates predictions about the effects of tobacco control policies on past and future smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality. SimSmoke estimates indicate that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in Arizona by about 20 percent over the period 1993-2002. A previous CDC study obtains similar effects, but does not net out the effects of individual policies. SimSmoke attributes much of the reduction, about 61 percent, to price increases and attributes 38 percent of the overall effect to media policies, leaving only a small percentage of the smoking reductions attributed to quitlines, youth access policies, and the weak clean air laws. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive strategies have significantly affected smoking rates in Arizona, which leads to large reductions in deaths attributable to smoking. It will be important to maintain these efforts over time to reduce or keep smoking prevalence down and to minimize smoking-attributable deaths.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California tobacco policy simulation model

Tobacco control policies are examined utilizing a simulation model for California, the state with the longest running comprehensive program. We assess the impact of the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP) and surrounding price changes on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Modeling begins in 1988 and progresses chronologically to 2004, and considers four types of policies (taxes, mass media, clean air laws, and youth access policies) independently and as a package. The model is validated against existing smoking prevalence estimates. The difference in trends between predicted smoking rates from the model and other commonly used estimates of smoking prevalence for the overall period were generally small. The model also predicted some important changes in trend, which occurred with changes in policy. The California SimSmoke model estimates that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in California by an additional 25% relative to the level that they would have been if policies were kept at their 1988 level. By 2004, the model attributes 59% of the reduction to price increases, 28% of the overall effect to media policies, 11% to clean air laws, and only a small percent to youth access policies. The model estimates that over 5000 lives will be saved in the year 2010 alone as a result of the CTCP and industry-initiated price increases, and that over 50,000 lives were saved over the period 1988-2010. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive tobacco control strategies have significantly impacted smoking rates. Further tax increases should lead to additional lives saved, and additional policies may result in further impacts on smoking rates, and consequently on smoking-attributable health outcomes in the population.

Tobacco control policies and smoking in a population of low education women, 1992-2002

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To examine recent trends and the role of tobacco control policies associated with smoking among women of low socioeconomic status.

DESIGN

Using four waves of the nationally representative tobacco use supplement to the current population survey (TUS-CPS)--(1992-2002), the study examined trends and used multivariate logistic models of smoking prevalence among low education women to examine the role of cigarette prices, clean air regulations, and tobacco control media campaigns, while controlling for other personal characteristics.

SETTING

USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Women ages 18 and older who report not having completed high school, compared with other women with greater educational attainment and men ages 18 and older with less than a high school degree.

MAIN RESULTS

Smoking among low education women declined at a greater rate over the study period than among more highly educated women, in contrast with trends of earlier periods. Low education women were found to be particularly responsive to media messages as well as price, especially in comparison with high education women.

CONCLUSIONS

The relation between health and socioeconomic status is not immutable; selected tobacco control policies, such as tax increases and media campaigns targeting low education women, may make inroads in reducing the smoking prevalence of this population.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: Results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model

A simulation model is developed for Vietnam to project smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. The model examines independently and as a package the effects of five types of tobacco control policies: tax increases, clean air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, and youth access policies. Predictions suggest that the largest reductions in smoking rates will result from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package. Significant inroads may be achieved through tax increases. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. Tobacco control policies have the potential to make large dents in smoking rates, which in turn could lead to many lives saved. In the absence of these measures, deaths from smoking will increase. The model also helps to identify information gaps pertinent both to modeling and policy-making.

Simulation modeling and tobacco control: creating more robust public health policies

Although previous empirical studies have shown that tobacco control policies are effective at reducing smoking rates, such studies have proven of limited effectiveness in distinguishing how the effect of policies depend on the other policies in place, the length of adjustment period, the way the policy is implemented, and the demographic groups considered. An alternative and complementary approach to purely statistical equations is simulation models. We describe the SimSmoke simulation model and how we used it to assess tobacco control policy in a specific case study. Simulation models are not only useful for policy prediction and planning but also may help to broaden our understanding of the role of different public health policies within a complex, dynamic social system.

Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model

AIMS

After a period of steady decline in smoking prevalence, smoking rates leveled off in the United States between 1990 and 1997, but began falling between 1997 and 2003. Trends in smoking prevalence, and the role of tobacco control policies in affecting those rates, are examined.

DESIGN

A computer simulation model is used in which smoking prevalence evolves through initiation and cessation, which are in turn influenced by tobacco control policies.

METHODS

The results of the model are compared to smoking prevalence measures from the US National Health Interview Survey between 1993 and 2003. We also consider the role of tax/price, clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access policies in influencing these rates.

FINDINGS

Both the SimSmoke model and data for recent years indicate that adult smoking prevalence changed little between 1993 and 1997, and even increased among youth. Between 1997 and 2003, smoking prevalence has been declining. Most age, gender and racial-ethnic groups show patterns similar to that of the entire population, with differences for those aged 18-24 years. The predominant trends were explained mainly by changes in price, with some residual effect of clean air laws, media campaigns and youth access laws.

CONCLUSIONS

Among public tobacco control policies, price had the dominant effect on smoking prevalence between 1993 and 2003, because few states implemented other policies to the degree necessary to affect much change. Through continued tax increases, stronger clean air laws, extensive media campaigns and broader cessation treatment programs, there is the potential to have much larger reductions in smoking prevalence.

Korean male smokers' perceptions of tobacco control policies in the United States

The purpose of this secondary data analysis is to report Korean male smokers' perceptions of tobacco control policies in the United States. Descriptive data from four focus groups held in New York City in 2003 are presented. Focus group interviews were used to collect data, and the two investigators independently analyzed all four recorded group sessions. Korean male immigrants living in New York City area were recruited, and 22 volunteered to participate. Exclusion criteria included immigration to the United States before age 12, no smoking history, and use of chemical substance other than tobacco. Korean men differed in perceptions of the policies based on smoking status and length of U.S. residency. Among current smokers, recent immigrants had difficulty understanding smoking restrictions, whereas longtime residents complained of price increases. Both groups suggested that policies target the tobacco industry and do not target smokers. In contrast, former smokers supported more regulation of public smoking and suggested use of more aggressive antismoking campaigns. Public policymakers should take into consideration cultural attitudes and beliefs about smoking behavior in the design and implementation of tobacco control policies that affect ethnic groups whose cultural and value orientations may differ from the mainstream.

The Healthy People 2010 smoking prevalence and tobacco control objectives: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model (United States)

OBJECTIVES

Healthy People 2010 (HP2010) set a goal of reducing the adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. Smoking prevalence rates do not appear to be declining at or near the rate targeted in the HP2010 goals. The purpose of this paper is to examine the attainability of HP2010 smoking prevalence objectives through the stricter tobacco control policies suggested in HP2010.

METHODS

A tested dynamic simulation model of smoking trends, known as SimSmoke, is applied. Smoking prevalence evolves over time through initiation and cessation, behaviors which are in turned influenced by tobacco control policies. We consider the effect of changes in taxes/prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs and youth access policies on projected smoking prevalence over the period 2003-2020, focusing on the levels in 2010.

RESULTS

The SimSmoke model projects that the aging of older cohorts and the impact of policies in years prior to 2004 will yield a reduction in smoking rates to 18.4% by 2010, which is substantially above the 2010 target of 12%. When policies similar to the HP2010 tobacco control policy objectives are implemented, SimSmoke projects that smoking rates could be reduced to 16.1%. Further reductions might be realized by increasing the tax rate by $1.00.

CONCLUSIONS

The SimSmoke model suggests that the HP2010 smoking prevalence objective is unlikely to be attained. Although we are unlikely to reach the goals by meeting the HP2010 policy objectives, they could get us much closer to the goal. Emphasis should be placed on meeting the tax, clean air, media/comprehensive campaigns, and cessation treatment objectives.

Recent trends in home and work smoking bans

OBJECTIVES

Home and work smoking bans at the national and state level in the USA, and their relation to smoking prevalence and to tobacco control policies, are examined.

DATA

The Current Population Survey's 1992/93 and 1998/99 tobacco use supplement surveys are the primary data source, supplemented with information on state level tobacco control policies.

METHODS

The national and state rate of bans are estimated, and changes over the course of the 1990s and their relation to smoking rates and tobacco control policies are examined.

RESULTS

The prevalence of work and home bans has increased considerably between 1992/93 and 1998/99. By 1999, over 65% of the population age 15 and above work in places with smoking bans, and over 60% live in homes with bans. We found that states with lower than average ban rates in 1993 tended to have had larger increases in ban rates between 1993 and 1999. We also found that home and work bans became more prevalent in states with initially low smoking rates, and that the growth in home bans coincided with a declining prevalence of smoking. States with higher levels of bans by 1999 also tended to have higher cigarette taxes, stricter clean air laws, and media/comprehensive campaigns in place.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that lower smoking rates are associated with higher rates of work and home bans, although substantial progress has also been made by those states with initially low rates of bans. While further work is needed to establish the direction of causality, it would appear that reductions in smoking rates, either through stronger tobacco control policies or otherwise, may reduce exposure to tobacco smoke not only by reducing the number of smokers, but also through increasing the number of firms and homes with smoking restrictions.

Relation between local restaurant smoking regulations and attitudes towards the prevalence and social acceptability of smoking: a study of youths and adults who eat out predominantly at restaurants in their town

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relation between strength of local restaurant smoking regulations and smoking related social norms among youths and adults.

DESIGN

We used generalised estimating equations logistic regression analysis to examine the relation between regulation strength and youths' and adults' perceptions of adult smoking prevalence and the social acceptability of smoking in their town, while controlling for baseline anti-smoking sentiment in the town.

SETTING

Each of the 351 Massachusetts towns were classified as having strong (complete smoking ban), medium (restriction of smoking to enclosed, separately ventilated areas), or weak (all others) restaurant smoking regulations.

SUBJECTS

1147 Massachusetts youths ages 12-17 years and 2116 adults who reported that they often or always eat out in their own town, drawn from a random digit dial survey.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Perceived adult smoking prevalence and perceived social acceptability of smoking in restaurants, in bars, or in general.

RESULTS

Compared to youths from towns with weak regulations, youths from towns with strong regulations were more likely to perceive lower adult smoking prevalence (odds ratio (OR) 1.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 2.84) and social unacceptability of adult smoking (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.29 to 3.08) in their town. Adults from towns with strong regulations were not more likely to perceive lower adult smoking prevalence, but had more than twice the odds of perceiving that smoking was unacceptable in restaurants (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.58 to 3.02) or bars (OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.90 to 3.31).

CONCLUSIONS

Strong local restaurant smoking regulations are associated with favourable smoking related social norms among youths and adults.

The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: a tobacco control scorecard

This article reviews studies of the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking rates with the aim of providing guidance on the importance of different policies. Based on past studies, we estimate the magnitude of effects of major tobacco control policies, how their effects depend on the manner in which the policies are implemented, the relationship between the different policies, and the barriers to implementation. The most successful campaigns have implemented a combination of tobacco control policies. Of those policies, substantial evidence indicates that higher taxes and clean air laws can have a large impact on smoking rates. Evidence also indicates that media campaigns when implemented with other policies are important. Research on greater access to treatment and telephone support hotlines indicates a strong potential to increase quit rates and may be important in affecting heavier smokers. Direct evidence on the effects of advertising bans and health warnings is mixed, but these policies appear to be important in some of the countries that have had success in reducing smoking rates. School education programs and limits on retail sales are not likely to have much impact if implemented alone, but may be more important when combined with other policies.

Home smoking restrictions. Problems in classification

BACKGROUND

Evidence of the effectiveness of smoking restrictions in workplaces and other public places is creating awareness of the role of bans in private spaces. The purpose of this study was to examine who is affected by strict home smoking bans at the household level.

METHODS

Using the 1998/1999 Tobacco Use Supplement to the U.S. Current Population Survey, we examined the characteristics of 43,613 households with two or more adults who responded to the home ban question. Analyses were conducted in 2003-2004.

RESULTS

An estimated 12% of sample households provided inconsistent reports about home smoking bans. Multimember households with smokers were substantially less likely to consistently report strict home bans. Discrepancies vary systematically by smoking behavior, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity. Children living with smokers are especially at risk of inconsistent adult reports.

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses should not rely on individual reports of home bans, especially in households with smokers and children. Policies should be directed toward educating members of households with smokers and children about the importance of household bans.

The use of simulation models for the surveillance, justification and understanding of tobacco control policies

Debates over national tobacco legislation and the use of state settlement funds demonstrate a need for information on the effects of tobacco control policies. Computer simulation models that are based on empirical evidence and that account for the variety of influences on tobacco use can be useful tools for informing policy makers. They can identify the effects of different policies, convey the importance of policy approaches to tobacco control, and help policy planners and researchers to better understand policies. This paper examines the role of simulation models in public policy, and discusses several recent models and limitations of those models.