Correlates of tobacco product cessation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

Does e-cigarette use predict short-term smoking cessation behaviors among adults who smoke in Mexico? A longitudinal study

INTRODUCTION

This study assessed quit attempts among adults who use cigarettes either exclusively or with e-cigarettes in Mexico, where non-daily smoking predominates.

METHODS

An open cohort of Mexican adults who smoke was surveyed every four months from November 2018 to March 2021. Participants followed to the next survey were analyzed (n = 2220 individuals, 4560 observations). Multinomial logistic models regressed smoking quit attempts reported at the followup survey (ref = no attempt; tried to quit; sustained attempt of ≥30 days) on e-cigarette use frequency (none = ref; 1-2 days/week; ≥3 days/week), adjusting for sociodemographics and smoking-related variables. Additional models subdivided e-cigarette users by intentions to quit smoking in the next six months (i.e., yes/no), use of nicotine (i.e., yes/no), and vaping device used (i.e., open/closed).

RESULTS

At 4-month follow-up, 32.7 % had tried to quit, and 2.9 % had quit for 30 days or more. Compared to those who smoke exclusively, occasional, and frequent e-cigarette users were more likely to try to quit (Adjusted Relative Risk Ratio or ARRR = 1.26 and 1.66, respectively) but no more likely to sustain their quit attempt. Among those who intended to quit smoking, e-cigarette users were no more likely to either try or sustain quit attempts. Furthermore, use of e-cigarettes with nicotine (59.6 %) was unassociated with cessation except that those who frequently used e-cigarettes with nicotine were more likely to try to quit than those who smoke exclusively (ARRR = 1.88). Device type used was not differentially associated with outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Mexicans who smoke and use e-cigarettes appear more likely than those who smoke exclusively to try to quit but not to sustain abstinence.

Longitudinal examination of ENDS characteristics, flavors, and nicotine content for cigarette cessation: Findings from PATH waves 5-6

BACKGROUND

A subpopulation of adults who smoke cigarettes use electronic nicotine device systems (ENDS) for cigarette cessation. This study examined the relationship between ENDS flavors, device types, and nicotine concentration with past month cigarette abstinence among adults using ENDS for cigarette cessation.

METHODS

We used the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (waves 5 and 6) to identify adults who self-reported using ENDS to quit cigarettes at baseline (wave 5) and investigated their cigarette abstinence at follow-up (wave 6) [n = 1252]. Measures assessed include ENDS features (flavors, device types, nicotine concentration) at baseline and past-month abstinence from cigarette smoking at follow-up. Weighted descriptive analysis was used, and multivariable logistic regression models examined ENDS features associated with past-month cigarette abstinence, adjusting for demographic factors and tobacco dependence at baseline.

RESULTS

Most participants used disposable devices (37.2 %; 95 % CI:33.2-41.5), followed by refillable tanks (30.2 %; 95 % CI:26.2-34.5). Additionally, fruit (41.3 %; 95 % CI:37.3-45.5), followed by menthol (19.1 %; 95 % CI:16.2-22.4), and tobacco (18.5 %; 95 % CI:15.5-22.1) were the most common flavors. The most common nicotine concentration used was 1-6 mg/ml (38.8 %; 95 % CI:34.6-43.2). Furthermore, in the adjusted model, daily ENDS users at baseline had 86 % (95 % CI:1.08-3.18) higher odds of past month cigarette abstinence at follow-up, than individuals who indicated 'not at all' to the current use of ENDS at baseline. There were no significant differences by preferred flavors, device type and nicotine concentrations (p-values > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Daily ENDS users had higher odds of quitting cigarettes compared to those who stopped using ENDS. However, the type of device, flavoring, and nicotine concentration used by ENDS users were not associated with past-month cigarette abstinence at follow-up two years later.

Birth-cohort patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use among adolescents in the US

BACKGROUND

E-cigarette use has increased considerably among US adolescents. While many studies have described cross-sectional prevalence trends of youth e-cigarette use, less is known about cohort or generational initiation and use patterns.

METHODS

We used data from the US National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) from 2014 to 2022 and age-period-cohort models to analyze age-specific patterns of e-cigarette use initiation and prevalence by cohort and calendar. For comparison, we also examined initiation and prevalence for cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco, using NYTS data from 1999 to 2022.

RESULTS

Age-specific e-cigarette initiation and prevalence varied considerably by calendar year and birth cohort. There was a rapid increase in e-cigarette initiation and prevalence starting with the 1995 birth cohort, peaking with the 2005 birth cohort, and showing signs of decline with more recent cohorts. In contrast, there were substantial continuous reductions in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use initiation and prevalence by birth cohort. While the reductions in cigarette smoking started with the 1980s birth cohorts, cigar and smokeless initiation and prevalence did not decrease until the 1990-1995 cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite their recent emergence, e-cigarette use has varied considerably across US adolescent cohorts. After early increases, e-cigarette use and initiation peaked with the 2005 birth cohort. These patterns are in contrast with the continuous decreases by cohort in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use and initiation. As the tobacco product landscape continues to evolve, it will be essential to monitor patterns of use of adolescent and young adult cohorts as they age into adulthood.

E-Cigarette Characteristics and Cigarette Cessation Among Adults Who Use E-Cigarettes

Importance

Population-level health outcomes associated with e-cigarettes depend in part on the association between e-cigarettes and combustible cigarette cessation. The US Food and Drug Administration has authority to regulate e-cigarette characteristics, including flavor and device type.

Objective

To investigate whether e-cigarette characteristics are associated with cigarette cessation behaviors among adults in the US population who use e-cigarettes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted using longitudinal data collected in 2014 to 2021 by the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a population-based, US nationally representative study. Participants were sampled from the civilian noninstitutionalized population using a 4-staged, stratified sampling design. Data were weighted and analyzed from 1985 adults ages 21 or older who smoked cigarettes daily and had used e-cigarettes in the past 30 days. Data were analyzed in May 2021 to May 2024.

Exposures

The following e-cigarette characteristics were assessed: use frequency (daily and nondaily), flavor type (tobacco, menthol or mint, sweet, and combination), device type (disposable, cartridge, and tank), and year of data collection as a proxy for the evolving e-cigarette marketplace.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The following cigarette cessation behaviors were assessed: making a cigarette quit attempt, cigarette cessation among individuals who made a quit attempt, and overall cigarette discontinuation regardless of quit attempts. Associations were evaluated between e-cigarette characteristics (assessed at baseline in 1 approach and assessed at follow-up in another approach) and cigarette cessation outcomes, controlling for demographic, cigarette smoking, and other e-cigarette use characteristics.

Results

The study sample consisted of 1985 participants representing adults in the population (mean age, 40.0 years [95% CI, 39.2-40.9 years]; 49.4% [95% CI, 46.3%-52.6%] male; 11.4% [95% CI, 9.6%-13.4%] Black, 80.7% [95% CI, 77.8%-83.3%] White, and 8.0% [95% CI, 6.3%-10.0%] other race; 9.2% [95% CI, 7.5%-11.2%] Hispanic). Daily vs nondaily e-cigarette use was associated with greater overall cigarette discontinuation rates (12.8% [95% CI, 9.1%-17.7%] vs 6.1% [95% CI, 4.8%-7.7%]; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.26 [95% CI, 1.34-3.81]), and use of e-cigarettes in 2019 to 2021 vs 2014-2015 to 2015-2016 was also associated with greater overall cigarette discontinuation rates (12.0% [95% CI, 8.8%-16.0%] vs 5.3% [95% CI, 2.9%-9.3%]; aOR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.13-6.67]). Use of menthol or mint vs tobacco flavor e-cigarettes was associated with greater overall cigarette discontinuation rates (9.2% [95% CI, 6.6%-12.8%] vs 4.7% [95% CI, 3.0%-7.1%]; aOR, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.32-5.27]) only when assessing e-cigarette use at baseline. E-cigarette device type was not associated with cigarette discontinuation rates in adjusted analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, daily e-cigarette use and use of e-cigarettes in 2019 to 2021 were consistently associated with greater cigarette discontinuation rates. These findings suggest that research focused on e-cigarettes marketed in recent years is needed to inform product regulation and public health policy decisions.

Longitudinal Assessment of Association Between Tobacco Use and Tobacco Dependence Among Adults: Latent Class Analysis of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Waves 1-4

INTRODUCTION

With increasing tobacco product varieties, understanding tobacco use (TU) profiles and their associations with tobacco dependence (TD) has also become increasingly challenging.

AIMS AND METHODS

We aimed to identify TU profiles and their associations with TD over time, and to identify subgroups with high risk of TD. We included 3463 adult recent tobacco users who had complete TU and TD data across waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. We used a composite index of TD and a summed TD score from an established 16-item TD measure. We applied a latent class analysis to identify TU profiles based on participants' usage of eight common tobacco product groups at each survey wave and to check the stability of the TU profiles over time. We then used generalized estimating equations regressions to evaluate the longitudinal TU-TD association, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We identified three distinct TU profiles that remained consistent across four survey waves: Dominant cigarette users (62%-68%), poly users with high propensity of using traditional cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and cigars (24%-31%), and dominant smokeless product users (7%-9%). Covariate-adjusted models showed that TD was significantly lower among the poly users and the dominant smokeless users, compared to that among the dominant cigarette users.

CONCLUSIONS

Both TU profiles and their associations with TD were stable over time at the population level. Poly users and smokeless product users were consistently associated with lower TD than cigarette-dominant users, suggesting the need for tailored tobacco cessation interventions for users with different TU profiles.

IMPLICATIONS

The finding of consistent TU profiles across four survey waves extends the current literature in capturing TU patterns in an evolving tobacco product landscape. The finding of the overall higher level of TD among the cigarette-dominant users compared to the other TU latent profiles (the Cig+eCig+Cigar dominant poly users and the dominant smokeless product users) can help identify high-risk groups for potential interventions. Our application of innovative statistical methods to high-quality longitudinal data from the PATH study helps improve the understanding of the dynamic TU-TD relationship over time.

National longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among US youth from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5)

OBJECTIVE

Determine longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among youth (ages 12-17 years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019.

METHODS

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study, was used to determine annual/biennial rates of tobacco product discontinuation behaviours among youth across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing product use (transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit product use and (3) discontinuing product use among those who attempted to quit. Discontinuing use was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah, smokeless tobacco and any tobacco. Attempting to quit and discontinuing use among those who attempted were each evaluated for cigarettes and ENDS. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and non-linear trends in rates across the study period.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2019, biennial rates of discontinuing tobacco product use among youth increased for cigarettes from 29% to 40%, increased for smokeless tobacco from 39% to 60%, and decreased for ENDS from 53% to 27%. By 2018/2019, rates of discontinuing use among attempters were 30% for those who used ENDS and 30% for those who smoked cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show decreasing rates of discontinuing ENDS use among youth in the USA alongside the changing ENDS marketplace and increasing rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Findings will serve as benchmarks against which future tobacco product discontinuation rates can be compared with evaluating impacts of subsequent tobacco regulatory policies, ENDS product development and public education campaigns.

National longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates among US adults from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5)

OBJECTIVE

To report on longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates, by product type, among adults (ages 18+ years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019.

METHODS

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study was used to report on annual and biennial rates of the following three cessation behaviours across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing tobacco product use (ie, transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit tobacco product use and (3) quitting tobacco product use among those who attempted to quit. Each cessation behaviour was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in cessation rates across the study period.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2019, rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking among adults in the USA statistically increased from 16% to 18%, though these were consistently lower than rates of discontinuing use of other tobacco products. Similarly, quit attempt rates and rates of quitting among attempters increased for cigarette smokers. However, rates of discontinuing ENDS use sharply declined across the study period, from 62% to 44%.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show that tobacco product cessation rates have been changing in recent years in the USA alongside the changing tobacco product marketplace and regulatory environment, though rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking remain relatively low. Findings can serve as a benchmark against which future cessation rates can be compared to evaluate the impacts of future tobacco regulatory policies.

Identifying Novel Motivation Phase-Specific Cessation Targets for Youth Experiencing Homelessness in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Of youth experiencing homelessness (YEH; 14-24 years old), 70%+ smoke combustible, commercial tobacco. Though many have tried to quit, most use ineffective methods. Drop-in centers for YEH are opportune places to link YEH to evidence-based treatment. Using the Phase-Based Model (PBM) for Cessation Research, the aim of this study was to identify "Motivation" phase-specific challenges impacting YEH's willingness to make a quit attempt-the goal of this cessation phase.

AIMS AND METHODS

Surveys were interview administered with 96 past-week combusted tobacco users accessing drop-in services. Regression models were fit to confirm hypothesized challenges impacting YEH's willingness to quit.

RESULTS

Moderate nicotine dependence was noted-a key Motivation phase cessation mechanism targeted-and was associated with population challenges including, but not limited to, replacing food with tobacco, accidental oxygen-deprivation events, and smoking to socialize. While 67.1% of participants made a past-year quit attempt, 45.8% expressed 30-day quit interest. Dimensions of coping with housing were associated with quit attempts and quit interest. Quit attempts were also associated with nicotine dependence, working, and smoking to socialize. Whereas, quit interest was associated with less endorsement of smoking to regulate affect and more endorsement to avoid danger.

CONCLUSIONS

Though common challenges targeted in Motivation phase cessation exist among YEH, other challenges may also need to be addressed to promote quitting.

IMPLICATIONS

Future research in optimizing evidence-based cessation access for YEH through drop-in centers may consider addressing the challenges of housing, food security, social context, violence, and neurotrauma sequela to bolster YEH willingness to make a quit attempt.

Adult smokers' Complete Switching Away from Cigarettes at 6, 9, and 12 Months after Initially Purchasing a JUUL e-Cigarette

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have the potential to benefit public health if smokers completely switch from cigarettes to ENDS. Methods: A cohort of adult smokers (age ≥ 21) who purchased a JUUL Starter Kit was followed for 12 months after the initial purchase. We defined "switching" as past-30-day abstinence from smoking (even if JUUL use had stopped), and analyzed factors associated with achievement and maintenance of self-reported repeated point-prevalence switching (RPPS) at three follow-ups, i.e., no past-30-day smoking at months 6, 9, and 12. Results: RPPS was reported by 21.6% of the 12,537 evaluable smokers. Smokers with lighter smoking history and lower cigarette dependence at baseline were more likely to report RPPS. RPPS was also associated with daily use of JUUL (Month-3: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 2.02-2.68; Month-6: OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.42-2.10), and with greater subjective reinforcing effects from JUUL use (assessed by the mCEQ, Month-3: OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.38-1.56; Month-6: OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.02-1.20). Even among smokers who did not meet the criteria of RPPS (i.e., who smoked at least once), 35.5% reported past 30-day point-prevalence switching on at least one follow-up, and their cigarette consumption was substantially reduced compared to baseline. Conclusions: Approximately one-fifth of adult smokers reported 30-day point-prevalence abstinence at 6, 9, and 12 months after purchasing JUUL. Greater use of JUUL and stronger subjective reinforcing effects were associated with nonsmoking, validating the potential for ENDS to substitute for smoking, with potential for positive impacts on individual and population health.

Shifts in preference for Natural American Spirit and associated belief that one's own cigarette brand might be less harmful than other brands: results from Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2018)

INTRODUCTION

People believe that cigarettes using 'organic,' 'additive-free' or similar descriptors are less harmful than other cigarettes. Natural American Spirit (NAS) is the most popular US cigarette brand using these descriptors. This cohort study describes changes in US smokers' odds of preferring NAS and changes in NAS smokers' odds of believing their brand might be less harmful than other brands.

METHODS

Data come from four waves (2013-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. Generalised estimating equations produced population-averaged estimates of relationships between (1) NAS brand preference and wave and (2) belief that one's own brand might be less harmful than other brands, wave and NAS brand preference. Models tested interactions by age group and sexual minority status.

RESULTS

The odds that smokers preferred NAS increased by 60% in W4 relative to W1. Disproportionate preference by younger adult and sexual minority smokers was observed. The odds that NAS smokers believed their own brand might be less harmful decreased by 50% between W1 and W4, but this perception was still 16 times higher for NAS compared with non-NAS smokers. Given the increasing preference for NAS, there was no significant change in the absolute number of NAS smokers who believed their own brand might be less harmful (W1: 562 122 (95% CI 435 190 to 689 055) vs W4: 580 378 (95% CI 441 069 to 719 689)).

CONCLUSIONS

Both brand popularity and concentration of brand-related harm perceptions are important for understanding population impact of changes in cigarette marketing.

Patterns of Premium and Nonpremium Cigar Use in the United States: Findings from Wave 6 (2021) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the characteristics of premium cigar use patterns is essential for minimizing public health harms. Typically, premium cigars are handmade, larger, more expensive, and without the characterizing flavors that are present in other cigar types: Nonpremium traditional cigars, cigarillos, and filtered cigars.

AIMS AND METHODS

Self-reported brand and price data were used from Wave 6 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study to define and estimate premium versus nonpremium cigar use among U.S. adults, as well as to explore cigar smoking patterns, purchasing behavior, and reasons for use by cigar type.

RESULTS

In 2021, 0.9% (95% CI = 0.7-1.0) of adults were premium cigar users, compared to 0.4% of nonpremium traditional cigar users (95% CI = 0.3-0.5), 1.1% of cigarillo users (95% CI = 1.0-1.2), and 0.6% filtered cigar users (95% CI = 0.5-0.7). Premium cigar users were overwhelmingly male (97.7%), and 35.8% were aged ≥55 years. The average premium cigar price/stick was $8.67, $5.50-7.00 more than other cigar types. Compared to other cigar types, significantly fewer premium cigar users had a regular brand with a flavor other than tobacco (~15% vs. 38%-53%). Though flavors remained the top reason for premium cigar use, they were less likely to endorse flavors as a reason for use than other cigar users (~40% vs. 68-74%). Premium cigar users had a lower prevalence (aRR: 0.37, 95% CI = 0.25-0.55) of dual use of cigars and cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although <1% of U.S. adults use premium cigars, their use and purchasing characteristics continue to differ from other cigar types, highlighting the importance of capturing data specific to premium cigar use.

IMPLICATIONS

This manuscript extends previous research from the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, "Premium cigars: Patterns of use, marketing, and health effects" by utilizing the most recent PATH Study data (Wave 6) to examine patterns of cigar use, including purchasing behavior and reasons for use, by cigar type (eg, premium traditional cigars, nonpremium traditional cigars, cigarillos, and filtered cigars). The findings support continued research on patterns of premium cigar use, which differ from use patterns of other cigar types.

Longitudinal transitions in e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adults: prospective cohort study

Background

To support tobacco control efforts, this study sought to characterize longitudinal transitions in use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and cigarettes.

Methods

Participants were nationally representative samples of 53,729 US adults from Waves 3-5 (2015-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We examined behavioral transitions (initiation, relapse, progression, and cessation) in ENDS and cigarette use across waves. Weighted generalized estimating equation models adjusted for sociodemographic variables.

Findings

Of never ENDS users at baseline, an estimated 1.7% reported initiating ENDS use by follow-up. Of former ENDS users, an estimated 12.1% relapsed into ENDS use. Of periodic ENDS users at baseline, 13% progressed to established ENDS use. Of baseline current ENDS users, 46.3% discontinued ENDS use. The corresponding transitions for cigarette smoking were 1.6% (initiation), 4.8% (relapse), 21.1% (progression), and 14% (discontinuation). Adults aged 18-24 (vs. older age), Hispanics (vs. non-Hispanic white), and past 12-month cannabis users were more likely to initiate ENDS or cigarettes (all p < 0.05). Having any internalizing mental health symptoms increased the odds of ENDS initiation, while externalizing symptoms increased the odds of cigarette initiation. Those who perceived nicotine as very harmful (vs. none/low harm) were more likely to discontinue ENDS. Current cigarette users (vs. non-users) at baseline were more likely to initiate, relapse, or discontinue ENDS (all p < 0.05) and vice versa.

Interpretation

We observed high changeability in ENDS and cigarette use among US adults over time. In absolute terms, ENDS use grew, while smoking fell. Tobacco control programs should focus on priority populations, including young adults and people with internalizing and externalizing mental health symptoms.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, R01-CA246606-01A1, R01-DA048390.

The Short-Term and Long-Term Associations Between Receiving Tobacco Discounts or Coupons and Smoking Cessation Among U.S. Adult Cigarette Smokers With Intention to Quit

INTRODUCTION

To examine the associations between baseline receipt of cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco discounts or coupons and smoking cessation at follow-up among US adult cigarette smokers with the intention to quit at baseline.

AIMS AND METHODS

Data were from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study wave 3 (October 2015-October 2016), wave 4 (December 2016-January 2018), and wave 5 (December 2018-November 2019) surveys. Two separate sets of analyses were conducted using wave 3-4 data (N = 3707) and wave 4-5 data (N = 6251). Specifically, wave 4 was used as the 1-year follow-up of wave 3 to examine the short-term association, and wave 5 was used as the 2-year follow-up of wave 4 to examine the longer-term association. Study population were current established cigarette smokers with the intention to quit (within 1 year for wave 3-4 data) at baseline. Exposure was self-reported past 12-month receipt of discounts or coupons for cigarettes and non-cigarette tobacco products at baseline, and outcome was self-reported completely quitting cigarette smoking at follow-up. Baseline single-wave weights were applied, and multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the adjusted associations.

RESULTS

Participants who received cigarette discounts or coupons at baseline were less likely to quit completely for both 1-year follow-up (aOR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.48 to 0.90) and 2-year follow-up (aOR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.61 to 0.90). Baseline receipt of discounts or coupons for non-cigarette tobacco products were not consistently associated with cigarette smoking cessation at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Receipt of cigarette discounts or coupons was associated with a reduced likelihood of successful quitting among cigarette smokers with intention to quit. Policies restricting cigarette coupons may help them quit completely.

IMPLICATIONS

This study found that among baseline current established cigarette smokers with intention to quit in the United States, baseline receipt of cigarette discounts or coupons was negatively associated with cigarette smoking cessation for both 1-year follow-up and 2-year follow-up. Baseline receipt of discounts or coupons for e-cigarettes, cigars, and other tobacco products were not consistently significantly associated with cigarette smoking cessation at follow-up. Our study results indicated that policies restricting cigarette coupons may help increase the likelihood of successful smoking cessation for smokers with intention to quit.

Prospective association between e-cigarette use frequency patterns and cigarette smoking abstinence among adult cigarette smokers in the United States

AIMS

To estimate the association of longitudinal patterns of e-cigarette use with cigarette smoking abstinence, after accounting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of longitudinal national cohort data. Using marginal structural models and four waves of the population assessment of tobacco and health (wave 1, 2013-14; wave 2, 2014-15; wave 3, 2015-16; wave 4, 2016-18), we estimated the association of vaping frequency across waves 2 and 3 with 12-month sustained cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 4, adjusting for time-dependent confounders at waves 1 and 2 and selection bias due to drop-out with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS/CASES

A total of 5699 adults (18+ years) who smoked cigarettes and did not vape at wave 1.

MEASUREMENTS

The exposure was vaping frequency at waves 2 and 3 (non-use, non-daily use, daily use), representing nine possible combinations of vaping frequency across two waves. Non-use at both waves was the exposure reference group. The primary outcome was sustained 12-month cigarette smoking abstinence at wave 4.

FINDINGS

Among 5699 adults who smoked cigarettes at wave 1, a total of 560 (9.8%) reported smoking abstinence at wave 4. Compared with nonuse at both waves, daily vaping at both waves [risk ratio (RR) = 3.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.59-5.64] and non-use at wave 2 followed by daily vaping at wave 3 (RR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.66-3.77) were positively associated with smoking abstinence; non-daily vaping at both waves was inversely associated with smoking abstinence (RR = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.11-0.75). Results persisted after accounting for misclassification of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking abstinence and after restricting to participants with plans to quit smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

In a US cohort of adult smokers, longitudinal patterns of vaping frequency appear to predict smoking abstinence, even after accounting for several sources of systematic error. Consistent daily vaping is associated with increased chances of cigarette smoking abstinence, while consistent non-daily vaping is associated with decreased chances of smoking abstinence.

Transitions between tobacco products: Correlates of changes in cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use among exclusive adult smokers and dual users in Mexico

This study examined transitions in tobacco products use among Mexican smokers and dual users. Data were analyzed from exclusive smokers (n = 2,946) and dual users (n = 1,643) recruited from an online consumer research panel and surveyed every-four months from November 2018 to April 2021. For exclusive smokers, estimated transitions were (time "t + 1" four months after prior survey): a) remain as exclusive smokers; b) dual use; c) exclusive e-cigarette use or quit both products. Among dual users, transitions analyzed were: a) remain as dual user; b) exclusive smoker; c) exclusive e-cigarette user or quit both products. Multinomial models regressed transitions at "t + 1" on time "t" for control variables. Most exclusive smokers (81%) remained as such, 12.6% transitioned to dual use, 2.3% to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 4% quitted both products. Exclusive smokers were more likely to transition to dual use if they recently attempted to quit (AOR = 1.45) or had partners/family or friends who used e-cigarettes (AOR = 2.47 & 2.56 respectively). Most dual users (74.8%) remained as dual users, 20.4% transitioned to exclusive smoking, 1.6% transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 3.2% quitted both products. Dual users were more likely to transition to exclusive smoking if they had lower educational attainment, recently attempted to quit e-cigarettes (AOR = 1.70). Having friends who use e-cigarettes (AOR = 0.29) and higher smoking dependence (AOR = 0.55) were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting. Recent quit attempts and e-cigarette use among close social network members may explain the short-term transitions, though longer follow-up is needed to assess sustained smoking cessation.

Differences in cigarette smoking quit attempts and cessation between adults who did and did not take up nicotine vaping: Findings from the ITC four country smoking and vaping surveys

INTRODUCTION

There is mixed evidence as to whether nicotine vaping products (NVPs) can help adults who smoke transition away from cigarettes. This study investigated if self-reported attempts to quit smoking and smoking cessation, over a period of either 18 or 24 months, differed between respondents who initiated nicotine vaping versus those who did not. Outcome comparisons were made between those who: (1) initiated vaping vs. those who did not; (2) initiated daily or non-daily vaping vs. those who did not; and (3) initiated daily or non-daily vaping between surveys and continued to vape at follow-up (daily or non-daily) vs. those who did not initiate vaping.

METHODS

This cohort study included 3516 respondents from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (Australia, Canada, England, United Sates), recruited at Wave 1 (2016) or 2 (2018) and followed up at Wave 2 (18 months) and/or 3 (2020, 24 months). Adults who smoked daily at baseline and did not have a history of regular vaping were included. Initiation of vaping was defined as beginning to vape at least monthly between surveys. Respondents indicated whether they made an attempt to quit smoking between surveys. Smoking cessation was defined as those who self-reported no longer smoking cigarettes at follow-up.

RESULTS

Relative to those who did not initiate vaping, initiation of any daily vaping between surveys was associated with a greater likelihood of smokers making a cigarette quit attempt (p < 0.001) and quitting smoking (p < 0.001). Among smokers who attempted to quit smoking, initiation of daily vaping was associated with a greater likelihood of being abstinent from smoking at follow-up (p = 0.001). Respondents who initiated vaping between surveys and were vaping daily at follow up were significantly more likely to have attempted to quit smoking (p < 0.001) and to have quit smoking (p < 0.001) than those who did not initiate vaping. Respondents who initiated non-daily vaping did not differ significantly from those who did not initiate vaping on any of the outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily NVP use was associated with increased attempts to quit smoking and abstinence from smoking cigarettes. These findings are consistent with the concept that complete cigarette substitution may be more likely to be achieved when smokers vape nicotine daily.

Urgent Need for Novel Investigations of Treatments to Quit E-cigarettes: Findings from a Systematic Review

E-cigarette use has been increasing globally over the past decade. Many use e-cigarettes as an alternative or method to quit cigarette smoking, whereas others use these products recreationally. As technology has advanced, many individuals have reported symptoms of dependence on these products and continue to use them beyond achieving abstinence from smoking. Despite individuals reporting interest in quitting, little is known about e-cigarette cessation. This systematic review sought to identify and evaluate all human subjects literature published on the outcome of e-cigarette cessation through September 2021. Of the 79 articles identified, 56 were cross-sectional, 6 were qualitative, 5 were cohort studies, 3 were experimental, 2 were mixed methods, and 7 reported intervention or case studies of e-cigarette cessation. Results showed youth generally had high intent to quit e-cigarettes, whereas results were mixed with adult samples. Youth were motivated to quit e-cigarettes by health concerns, whereas adults were motivated to quit e-cigarettes by cost, lack of satisfaction, and psychologic factors. Adults were more likely to report past e-cigarette quit attempts, most commonly "cold turkey." Few interventions tested strategies for e-cigarette cessation, with a majority targeted for youth. Given the lack of information on e-cigarette cessation, recommendations for future studies are outlined.

Understanding heterogeneity among individuals who smoke cigarettes and vape: assessment of biomarkers of exposure and potential harm among subpopulations from the PATH Wave 1 Data

Introduction

People who both smoke cigarettes and vape are often considered as a homogenous group even though multiple subgroups may exist. We examined biomarkers of exposure (BOE) and biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH) to differentiate between subgroups of people who smoke and vape based on PATH Study Wave 1 (2013–2014) data.

Methods

We compared people who only smoke cigarettes everyday (Group A, n = 2442) and people who only vape everyday (Group C, n = 169) against people who smoke and vape segmented into subgroups of people who frequently smoke and vape (Group B1, n = 169), frequently smoke and infrequently vape (Group B2, n = 678), frequently vape and infrequently smoke (Group B3, n = 57), and infrequently smoke and vape (Group B4, n = 66). Eighteen BOEs (representing exposure to TSNAs, nicotine, heavy metals, PAHs, and volatile organic compounds) and four BOPHs (representing inflammation and oxidative stress) were compared within the subgroups.

Results

Levels of many BOEs/BOPHs were higher among Group B2 relative to Groups B1, B3, and B4. Compared to Group A, many BOEs were significantly lower in Groups B3 (15/18) and B4 (17/18), and some BOEs were higher among B2 (4/18). Compared to Group C, significantly lower BOEs were observed for Group B4 (2/18).

Conclusions

Overall, the levels of BOEs and BOPHs in people who smoke and vape are associated with frequency of cigarette smoking. Our findings indicate that not all people who smoke and vape are the same, and tobacco product use frequency should be considered when categorizing people who smoke and vape.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12954-022-00673-x.

Longitudinal associations between flavored tobacco use and tobacco product cessation in a national sample of adults

Use of flavored tobacco has been associated with lower likelihood of short-term abstinence from tobacco. It is unknown whether longer-term associations exist, particularly for a variety of products and specific flavor categories. This study used adult survey data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2018). We tested associations of past 30-day tobacco product use at wave 2 using both a 2-category any flavor versus unflavored variable and 4-category specific flavor (menthol/mint, sweet, and both menthol/mint and sweet) versus unflavored variable with past 12-month cessation from the same product two years later at wave 4. Separate models were run for each product (combustible cigarettes, cigars, hookah, e-cigarettes, and smokeless), adjusting for wave 1 sociodemographic characteristics. For all five products, past 30-day use of any flavored (versus unflavored) product at wave 2 was associated with reduced likelihood of same-product cessation at wave 4. Most specific flavor categories were associated with reduced odds of same-product cessation across all products. Any flavor use was also associated with reduced likelihood of longer-term cessation (i.e., past 24-months at both waves 3 and 4) and cessation from all five tobacco products in several analyses. Exploratory moderation results indicated that the association between e-cigarette flavor use and lower likelihood of cessation was stronger for young adults (18-24) versus older adults (25+). Current use of flavored tobacco products is associated with lower likelihood of product cessation. Flavored tobacco products warrant consideration in regulatory policy to reduce the adverse public health impact of tobacco use.

Changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use among US young adults from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic: News exposure and risk perceptions as potential predictors

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 impacted cigarette and e-cigarette use behaviors among some individuals. This study examined COVID-19 factors and prior substance use as predictors of cigarette and e-cigarette cessation and initiation among US young adults from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analyzed data from Wave 3 (Sept-Dec 2019) and Wave 5 (Sept-Dec 2020) of a 2-year, 5-wave longitudinal study of young adults across six US metropolitan areas. We examined COVID-19 news exposure, perceived smoking and e-cigarette use risk, and prior substance use, as predictors of cigarette and e-cigarette cessation and initiation, respectively.

RESULTS

Of W3 cigarette users (n=516), 37.8% (n=195) quit cigarettes at W5; predictors of cessation included younger age, fewer days of W3 past-month cigarette use, and no W3 e-cigarette use. Of W3 e-cigarette users (n=687), 38.7% (n=266) quit e-cigarettes at W5; predictors included greater COVID-19 news exposure, fewer days of W3 past-month e-cigarette use, and no W3 cigarette use. Of W3 cigarette non-users (n=1693), 5.0% (n=85) initiated cigarettes at W5; predictors of initiation included younger age, lower perceived smoking risk, lifetime cigarette and e-cigarette use, and W3 e-cigarette use. Of W3 e-cigarette non-users (n=1522), 6.3% (n=96) initiated e-cigarettes at W5; predictors included younger age, less news exposure, lifetime cigarette and e-cigarette use, and W3 cigarette use.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the need to address cigarette and e-cigarette co-use and related risk perceptions in prevention and cessation interventions.

What makes people quit tobacco and succeed at it? An exploratory analysis of smoked and smokeless tobacco from India

Tobacco cessation is a key component of WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. However, success rates decline significantly from intending to quit tobacco, through attempting and becoming a successful quitter. Among Indian adults, the prevalence of smoking and smokeless tobacco use was 10.7% and 21.4% respectively in 2016. Furthermore, 9% of all deaths were estimated to be attributable to tobacco. This study aims to explore associations of socio-demographic, environmental and behavioural dimensions of tobacco users with the process of successful quitting. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to study (i) attempting to quit and (ii) being a successful quitter for smoked and smokeless tobacco, using cross-sectional Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) datasets for India (2009-10 and 2016-17), where data was pooled from the two surveys (n = 53,463). Advise to quit by health care provider was associated with quit attempts of smoking (1.82, 95% CI: [1.51; 2.20]), and smokeless tobacco (1.71, 95% CI: [1.45; 2.01]). Never being exposed to smoke at home was the strongest environmental factor for successful smoking cessation (4.04, 95% CI: [2.59; 6.31]). Noticing label warnings and advertisements was also associated with attempting to quit smoked and smokeless tobacco. Being a former smoker/smokeless tobacco user was positively connected with attempting to quit the current use of the other tobacco form. We recommend strategies to promote smoke-free homes, and incorporating 'tobacco cessation advocacy' into the curriculum of health care workers. Strengthening the tobacco control law and program promulgated in India since 2003 and its implementation would significantly promote tobacco cessation.

Single, Dual, and Triple Use of Cigarettes, e-Cigarettes, and Snus among Adolescents in the Nordic Countries

New tobacco and nicotine products have emerged on the market in recent years. Most research has concerned only one product at a time, usually e-cigarettes, while little is known about the multiple use of tobacco and nicotine products among adolescents. We examined single, dual, and triple use of cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and snus among Nordic adolescents, using data of 15-16-year-olds (n = 16,125) from the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) collected in 2015 and 2019 from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands. Country-specific lifetime use of any of these products ranged between 40% and 50%, and current use between 17% and 31%. Cigarettes were the most common product in all countries except for Iceland, where e-cigarettes were remarkably more common. The proportion of dual and triple users was unexpectedly high among both experimental (24%-49%) and current users (31-42%). Triple use was less common than dual use. The users' patterns varied somewhat between the countries, and Iceland differed substantially from the other countries, with a high proportion of single e-cigarette users. More knowledge on the patterns of multiple use of tobacco and nicotine products and on the potential risk and protective factors is needed for targeted intervention and prevention efforts.

Cigar Use Progression Among New Cigar Initiators: A Two-Part Growth Curve Analysis Among a Youth and Young Adult Cohort

INTRODUCTION

Youth and young adults (YYAs) are at high risk of cigar use. This study's objective was to examine progression and sociodemographic differences in current cigar use and frequency among new cigar initiators.

AIMS AND METHODS

We conducted a two-part latent growth model among a nationally representative cohort of cigar initiators (aged 15-25) to examine 24-month trajectories of current cigar use and frequency (n = 1483). The cohort was recruited via address-based sampling with online data collection from 2014 to 2019 and surveyed approximately every 6 months.

RESULTS

The unconditional odds of current cigar use (ie, past 30-day use) within 6 months of initiation was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.82), corresponding to a probability of 42%. The odds of current use among recent cigar initiates declined 6 months after initiation and was followed by a stabilization in use over time. Among continued users, frequency (# days used in past 30 days) increased linearly over time but remained low (3.47 days/months at 24 months). Younger individuals, non-Hispanic African Americans, those with lower subjective financial status, and current users of cigarettes, other tobacco products and/or marijuana were at highest risk within 6 months of initiation. Males, younger users, and current cigarette smokers had the highest risk for cigar progression over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to examine longitudinal cigar use patterns among YYA cigar initiators. Findings emphasize the need for research across the cigar use spectrum and the importance of interventions targeted by age, stage of use, cigarette, other tobacco, and marijuana use and key sociodemographics to interrupt use pathways.

IMPLICATIONS

This study is the first to examine progression of cigar use among YYAs who have newly initiated cigars. Results show a high probability of current cigar use within 6 months of initiation followed by a rapid decline and stabilization over time. Frequency increases among those who continue using cigars. Males, younger users, and current cigarette smokers had the highest risk for cigar progression over time. Findings emphasize the need for targeting interventions by age, stage of use, cigarette, other tobacco, and marijuana use and key sociodemographics to interrupt use pathways.

Association of e-Cigarette Use With Discontinuation of Cigarette Smoking Among Adult Smokers Who Were Initially Never Planning to Quit

IMPORTANCE

Cigarette smokers not planning to quit are often overlooked in population studies evaluating the risk-benefit potential of electronic nicotine delivery products (e-cigarettes).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether e-cigarette use is associated with discontinuing cigarette smoking among smokers who were initially never planning to quit.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used US nationally representative data from the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (waves 2-5 conducted between October 2014 and November 2019), with participants evaluated in 3 pairs of interviews. Adult daily cigarette smokers initially not using e-cigarettes and with no plans to ever quit smoking for good (2489 observations from 1600 individuals) were included.

EXPOSURES

e-Cigarette use (ie, daily use, nondaily use, or no use) at follow-up interview among smokers not using e-cigarettes at baseline interview.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were discontinuation of cigarette smoking (ie, no cigarette smoking) and discontinuation of daily cigarette smoking (ie, no daily cigarette smoking) at follow-up interview. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between the exposure and each outcome, controlling for demographic characteristics and cigarettes smoked per day at baseline interview; all estimates were weighted.

RESULTS

The weighted population of adult daily cigarette smokers who were not using e-cigarettes and had no plans to ever quit smoking, based on data from 1600 participants, was 56.1% male (95% CI, 53.4%-58.7%), 10.1% Hispanic (95% CI, 8.2%-12.3%), 10.1% non-Hispanic Black (95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%), 75.6% non-Hispanic White (95% CI, 72.9%-78.2%), and 4.2% of other non-Hispanic race (95% CI, 3.3%-5.4%); 29.3% were aged 55 to 69 years (95% CI, 26.2%-32.6%), 8.9% were aged 70 years or older (95% CI, 6.8%-11.5%), 36.8% did not graduate from high school (95% CI, 34.1%-39.6%), 55.2% had an annual household income of less than $25 000 (95% CI, 52.3%-58.1%), 37.6% smoked 20 to 29 cigarettes per day (95% CI, 34.7%-40.6%), and 12.7% smoked 30 or more cigarettes per day (95% CI, 10.9%-14.7%). Overall, 6.2% of the population (95% CI, 5.0%-7.5%) discontinued cigarette smoking. Discontinuation rates were higher among those who used e-cigarettes daily (28.0%; 95% CI, 15.2%-45.9%) compared with not at all (5.8%; 95% CI, 4.7%-7.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.11; 95% CI, 3.14-20.97). Furthermore, 10.7% (95% CI, 9.1%-12.5%) discontinued daily cigarette smoking, with higher rates of discontinuation observed among those who used e-cigarettes daily (45.5%; 95% CI, 27.4%-64.9%) compared with not at all (9.9%; 95% CI, 8.2%-11.8%; aOR, 9.67; 95% CI, 4.02-23.25). Nondaily e-cigarette use was not associated with cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.08-3.35) or daily cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.44-2.09).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, daily e-cigarette use was associated with greater odds of cigarette discontinuation among smokers who initially had no plans to ever quit smoking. These findings support the consideration of smokers who are not planning to quit when evaluating the risk-benefit potential of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation in the population.

Within-person longitudinal associations between electronic nicotine delivery systems use and smoking cessation efforts among U.S. continuing adult cigarette smokers

OBJECTIVES

Prior studies that examined the role of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use in smoking cessation have shown divergent conclusions. This study examined the time-course of ENDS-associated smoking abstinent behaviors among continuing cigarette smokers who were willing but unable to quit smoking.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the four waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Of the 1,684 smokers who tried to quit smoking completely at Wave 1, a total of 1,094 who were continuing smokers until Wave 4 and were not lost to follow-ups comprised the sample. Using generalized linear mixed modeling, we fitted weighted negative binomial regression models to examine within-person associations of ENDS use with quit attempts and number of days abstinent from smoking.

RESULTS

Quit attempt frequency and smoking abstinent days were highest at Wave 1, dropped at Wave 2, and then either increased a little or remained stagnant in later waves. ENDS use to quit smoking was associated with more frequent quit attempts (aIRR=1.67, 95% CI=1.42-1.95) and more abstinent days (aIRR=3.28, 95% CI=2.43-4.44), and the magnitude of such associations became stronger over time. ENDS use was associated with becoming a non-daily smoker among baseline daily smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

ENDS use among continuing smokers may help increase the number of quit attempts and smoking abstinent days. Given that the study sample is continuing smokers who failed in complete smoking cessation, future research would be desirable that evaluates whether such abstinent behaviors sustain and manifest harm reduction with improved health outcomes.

IMPLICATIONS

Smokers increasingly adopt electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) to quit smoking. However, the association of ENDS use with smoking cessation efforts among continuing cigarette smokers who were willing but unable to quit smoking is largely unknown. This study found that quit attempts and smoking abstinent days increased with ENDS use to quit smoking by following up with population-representative continuing smokers. Additionally, this study assessed whether cigarette smokers' abstinent behaviors vary with their use of ENDS by estimating within-person associations with frequent assessments of both exposures and outcomes in a long-term perspective.

Nicotine and Tobacco Product Use and Dependence Symptoms Among US Adolescents and Adults: Differences by Age, Sex, and Sexual Identity

INTRODUCTION

Sexual minorities are at increased risk for tobacco use; however, there is heterogeneity in this risk by sociodemographic factors.

AIMS AND METHODS

This study sought to understand if vulnerability to tobacco use among US sexual minorities varies by age group. For this study we used data from wave 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health adolescent and adult surveys (n = 37 959), a nationally representative survey. We examined five nicotine/tobacco use outcomes by sex and sexual identity across four age groups. The five outcomes included past 30-day e-cigarette use, past 30-day cigarette use, past 30-day other tobacco use, the number of tobacco products used, and nicotine dependence symptoms.

RESULTS

For males, sexual identity differences were greatest in middle adulthood, particularly for bisexual males; adjusted odds ratios and adjusted incident rate ratios ranged from 2.08 to 5.59 in middle adulthood compared to 0.83-1.62 in adolescence. For females, sexual identity differences were persistent from adolescence through middle adulthood. We found significant differences most consistently for nicotine dependence symptoms when comparing gay/lesbian and bisexual females across multiple age groups; adjusted incident rate ratios ranged from 1.90 in middle adulthood to 3.26 in adolescence.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk among sexual minorities varied considerably across age groups and by nicotine/tobacco product and severity of symptoms. Our findings underscore the importance of looking beyond single tobacco products when examining nicotine/tobacco differences related to sexual identity and in examining differences by age group. Our results demonstrating age-varying risk among sexual minorities have important implications for tobacco prevention and cessation efforts.

IMPLICATIONS

This study identifies important age variation in sexual minority differences in tobacco use, particularly among males. This study also shows that many sexual minorities not only have higher risk for tobacco and nicotine product use but also use significantly more tobacco products and have higher nicotine dependence symptom scores. These results have important implications for implementation of nicotine and tobacco prevention and cessation strategies for sexual minority adolescents and adults.

Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigarette use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

Cigarettes are the most harmful and most prevalent tobacco product in the USA. This study examines cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of cigarette use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N=11 046; young adults, N=6478; adults 25+, N=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Among Wave 1 (W1) any past 30-day (P30D) cigarette users, more than 60%, persistently used cigarettes across three waves in all age groups. Exclusive cigarette use was more common among adult 25+ W1 P30D cigarette users (62.6%), while cigarette polytobacco use was more common among youth (57.1%) and young adults (65.2%). Persistent exclusive cigarette use was the most common pathway among adults 25+ and young adults; transitioning from exclusive cigarette use to cigarette polytobacco use was most common among youth W1 exclusive cigarette users. For W1 youth and young adult cigarette polytobacco users, the most common pattern of use was persistent cigarette polytobacco use.

CONCLUSIONS

Cigarette use remains persistent across time, regardless of age, with most W1 P30D smokers continuing to smoke at all three waves. Policy efforts need to continue focusing on cigarettes, in addition to products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems that are becoming more prevalent.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigar use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine the cross-sectional prevalence of use and 3-year longitudinal pathways of cigar use in US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults 25+ (25 years or older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Weighted cross-sectional prevalence of past 30-day (P30D) use was stable for adults 25+ (~6%), but decreased in youth (Wave 1 (W1) to Wave 3 (W3)=2.5% to 1.2%) and young adults (W1 to W3=15.7% to 14.0%). Among W1 P30D cigar users, over 50% discontinued cigar use (irrespective of other tobacco use) by Wave 2 (W2) or W3. Across age groups, over 70% of W1 P30D cigar users also indicated P30D use of another tobacco product, predominantly cigar polytobacco use with cigarettes. Discontinuing all tobacco use by W2 or W3 was greater in adult exclusive P30D cigar users compared with polytobacco cigar users.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the majority of P30D cigar users discontinued use by W3, adult polytobacco users of cigars were less likely to discontinue all tobacco use than were exclusive cigar users. Tracking patterns of cigar use will allow further assessment of the population health impact of cigars.

Patterns of E-cigarette Use and Subsequent Cigarette Smoking Cessation Over 2 Years (2013/2014-2015/2016) in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the population impact of e-cigarettes requires determining their effect on cigarette smoking cessation.

METHODS

Using the US Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health cohort, we examined smoking cessation among adult current cigarette smokers at Wave 1 with follow-up data at Waves 2 and 3 (n = 9724).

RESULTS

By Wave 3 (2015/2016), 17.3% of smokers had quit smoking. Smokers using e-cigarettes daily or who increased to daily use over the three waves were two to four times more likely to have quit in the short term (<1 year) and long term (1+ years) compared with never e-cigarette users (p < .001). E-cigarette use in the last quit attempt was associated with a higher likelihood of short-term (<1 year) quitting at Wave 3 (adjusted relative risk ratio: 1.33; 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.71) compared with smokers who did not use an e-cigarette in their last quit attempt. Noncurrent (no use in any wave) e-cigarette users and users who were unstable in use frequency were 33% and 47% less likely to quit in the short-term, respectively (p < .001). Flavored (vs nonflavored) and using a rechargeable (vs disposable) e-cigarette device was associated with an increased likelihood of both short- and long-term quitting.

CONCLUSION

Smoking cessation was more likely among frequent e-cigarette users, users of e-cigarettes in last quit attempt, and users of flavored and rechargeable devices. Less frequent, unstable, past, or never e-cigarette users were less likely to quit smoking. Monitoring the relationship between patterns of e-cigarette and cigarette use is complex but critical for gauging the potential of e-cigarettes as a harm reduction tool.

IMPLICATIONS

This study suggests that consistent and frequent e-cigarette use over time is associated with cigarette smoking cessation among adults in the United States. In addition, findings suggest that flavored e-cigarette use and use of rechargeable e-cigarette devices can facilitate smoking cessation. These results underscore the importance of carefully defining and characterizing e-cigarette exposure patterns, potential confounders, and use of e-cigarettes to quit smoking, as well as variations in length of the smoking cessation.

Quitting e-cigarettes: Quit attempts and quit intentions among youth and young adults

While youth and young adult e-cigarette use has risen in the U.S., few studies have explored e-cigarette cessation behavior. This study estimates quit attempts and intentions among young people (aged 15-36) since the rise of high-nicotine products, and examines factors associated with e-cigarette quit attempts and intentions. Current e-cigarette users (past 30-day use, not already quit) were drawn from a national probability-based cohort sample. Data were collected from September to December 2019 (n = 1158). Weighted proportions of past-year quit attempts, intentions to quit in next 30 days, and general intentions to quit (at some point) were calculated. Models estimated cessation outcomes with respect to harm perceptions, friend use, dependence, use frequency, combustible use and demographic factors. Among current e-cigarette users, 54.2% reported general intentions to quit, 15.3% reported intention to quit within 30 days, and 33.3% reported a past-year quit attempt. Past-year quit attempts were associated with higher levels of harm perceptions (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-2.92), dependence (aOR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.44-2.56) and daily use (28 + days) compared to infrequent use (1-5 days) (aOR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.12-0.43). General intentions to quit were positively associated with harm perceptions (aOR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.23-2.56) and dependence (aOR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.41-2.52), and negatively associated with daily use compared to infrequent use (aOR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.19-0.65). Findings indicate that over half of young e-cigarette users want to quit, highlighting a critical need for policies and resources to promote and sustain e-cigarette cessation among young people.

Sex Difference in the Association between Electronic Cigarette Use and Subsequent Cigarette Smoking among U.S. Adolescents: Findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-4

E-cigarettes are the most-used tobacco products among U.S. adolescents. Emerging evidence suggests that adolescents using e-cigarettes are at elevated risk for initiating cigarette smoking. However, whether this risk may differ by sex remains unknown. This study analyzed data from Wave 1 to 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) were performed to estimate the associations between baseline e-cigarette use and subsequent cigarette smoking, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, mental health conditions, and other tobacco use. Effect modifications by sex were examined. Multivariate analyses showed that, among baseline never cigarette smokers, past-30-day e-cigarette use at baseline waves was significantly associated with past-30-day cigarette smoking at follow-up waves (aOR = 3.90, 95% CI: 2.51-6.08). This association was significantly stronger for boys (aOR = 6.17, 95% CI: 2.43-15.68) than for girls (aOR = 1.10, 95% CI: 0.14-8.33). Additionally, using other tobacco products, older age, and having severe externalizing mental health problems at baseline were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of cigarette smoking at follow-up. The prospective association between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking differs by sex among U.S. adolescents. Sex-specific tobacco control interventions may be warranted to curb the youth tobacco use epidemic.

Changes in Smoking and Vaping over 18 Months among Smokers and Recent Ex-Smokers: Longitudinal Findings from the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

This descriptive study of smokers (smoked at least monthly) and recent ex-smokers (quit for ≤2 years) examined transitions over an 18 month period in their smoking and vaping behaviors. Data are from Waves 1 (W1: 2016) and 2 (W2: 2018) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, a cohort study of adult (≥18+) smokers, concurrent users (smoke and vape), and recent ex-smokers from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Respondents (N = 5016) were classified according to their smoking and vaping status, which resulted in eight subgroups: (1) exclusive daily smokers (2) exclusive non-daily smokers; (3–6) concurrent users (subdivided into four groups by each combination of daily/non-daily smoking and daily/non-daily vaping); (7) ex-smokers who vape; (8) ex-smokers not vaping. The analyses focused first on describing changes between groups from W1 to W2. Second, transition outcomes were assessed based on changes in smoking and vaping between W1 and W2. Transitions focused on smoking were: no change in smoking (continued smoking at the same frequency); decreased smoking; increased smoking; discontinued smoking; relapsed (ex-smokers at W1 who were smoking at W2). Transitions focused on vaping were: initiated vaping; switched from smoking to vaping. Overall, this study found that the vast majority of smokers were smoking 18 months later. Non-daily smokers were more likely than daily smokers to have discontinued smoking (p < 0.0001) and to have switched to exclusive vaping (p = 0.034). Exclusive non-daily smokers were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have initiated vaping (p = 0.04). Among all W1 daily smokers, there were no differences in discontinued smoking between daily smokers who vaped (concurrent users) and exclusive daily smokers; however, concurrent users were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have decreased to non-daily smoking (p < 0.001) or to have switched to vaping by W2 (p < 0.001). Among all W1 non-daily smokers, there were no significant differences in increased smoking or discontinued smoking between concurrent users or exclusive smokers. Most ex-smokers remained abstinent from smoking, and there was no difference in relapse back to smoking between those who vaped and those who did not.

Longitudinal transitions of exclusive and polytobacco electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; including e-cigarettes) are rapidly evolving in the US marketplace. This study reports cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of ENDS use across 3 years, among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older).

DESIGN

Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Weighted cross-sectional ever use of ENDS increased at each wave. Across all three waves, young adults had the highest percentages of past 12-month, past 30-day (P30D) and daily P30D ENDS use compared with youth and adults 25+. Only about a quarter of users had persistent P30D ENDS use at each wave. Most ENDS users were polytobacco users. Exclusive Wave 1 ENDS users had a higher proportion of subsequent discontinued any tobacco use compared with polytobacco ENDS users who also used cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

ENDS use is most common among young adults compared with youth and adults 25+. However, continued use of ENDS over 2 years is not common for any age group. Health education efforts to reduce the appeal and availability of ENDS products might focus on reducing ENDS experimentation, and on reaching the smaller subgroups of daily ENDS users to better understand their reasons for use.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco hookah use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine cross-sectional rates of use and longitudinal pathways of hookah use among US youth (ages 12-17), young adults (ages 18-24), and adults 25+ (ages 25 and older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Young adults had higher ever, past 12-month (P12M) and past 30-day cross-sectional prevalence of hookah use at each wave than youth or adults 25+. The majority of Wave 1 (W1) hookah users were P12M users of other tobacco products (youth: 73.9%, young adults: 80.5%, adults 25+: 83.2%). Most youth and adult W1 P12M hookah users discontinued use in Wave 2 or Wave 3 (youth: 58.0%, young adults: 47.5%, adults 25+: 63.4%). Most W1 P12M hookah polytobacco users used cigarettes (youth: 49.4%, young adults: 59.4%, adults 25+: 63.2%) and had lower rates of quitting all tobacco than exclusive hookah users or hookah polytobacco users who did not use cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Hookah use is more common among young adults than among youth or adults 25+. Discontinuing hookah use is the most common pathway among exclusive or polytobacco hookah users. Understanding longitudinal transitions in hookah use is important in understanding behavioural outcomes at the population level.

Correlates of tobacco product initiation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

To report on demographic and tobacco product use correlates of tobacco product initiation (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population.

DESIGN

Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (aged 12-17 years) and adults (aged 18+ years). Never users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1, 2013/14) or Wave 2 (W2, 2014/15) were included (n=12 987 youth; n=25 116 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco product use characteristics at baseline, and tobacco product initiation at follow-up (ever, past 30 day (P30D), frequent (use on 20 or more of thepast 30 days)) over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3).

RESULTS

Youth aged 15-17 years were more likely than youth aged 12-14 years and adults aged 18-24 years were more likely than older adults to initiate P30D tobacco use across products; non-heterosexuals were more likely than heterosexuals to initiate P30D cigarette and ENDS use. Older adults were more likely than young adults, and males were more likely than females, to be frequent users of ENDS on initiation. Ever use of another tobacco product predicted P30D initiation of each tobacco product.

DISCUSSION

Other tobacco product use and age predict P30D tobacco initiation across products whereas associations with other demographic characteristics vary by product. Continued contemporary evaluation of initiation rates within the changing tobacco product marketplace is important.