Using neural ordinary differential equations to predict complex ecological dynamics from population density data

Simple models have been used to describe ecological processes for over a century. However, the complexity of ecological systems makes simple models subject to modelling bias due to simplifying assumptions or unaccounted factors, limiting their predictive power. Neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) have surged as a machine-learning algorithm that preserves the dynamic nature of the data (Chen et al. 2018 Adv. Neural Inf. Process. Syst.). Although preserving the dynamics in the data is an advantage, the question of how NODEs perform as a forecasting tool of ecological communities is unanswered. Here, we explore this question using simulated time series of competing species in a time-varying environment. We find that NODEs provide more precise forecasts than autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We also find that untuned NODEs have a similar forecasting accuracy to untuned long-short term memory neural networks and both are outperformed in accuracy and precision by empirical dynamical modelling . However, we also find NODEs generally outperform all other methods when evaluating with the interval score, which evaluates precision and accuracy in terms of prediction intervals rather than pointwise accuracy. We also discuss ways to improve the forecasting performance of NODEs. The power of a forecasting tool such as NODEs is that it can provide insights into population dynamics and should thus broaden the approaches to studying time series of ecological communities.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Phylogenomics of American pika (Ochotona princeps) lineage diversification

Quaternary climate oscillations have profoundly influenced current species distributions. For many montane species, these fluctuations were a prominent driver in species range shifts, often resulting in intraspecific diversification, as has been the case for American pikas (Ochotona princeps). Range shifts and population declines in this thermally-sensitive lagomorph have been linked to historical and contemporary environmental changes across its western North American range, with previous research reconstructing five mitochondrial DNA lineages. Here, we paired genome-wide data (25,244 SNPs) with range-wide sampling to re-examine the number and distribution of intra-specific lineages, and investigate patterns of within- and among-lineage divergence and diversity. Our results provide genomic evidence of O. princeps monophyly, reconstructing six distinct lineages that underwent multiple rounds of divergence (0.809-2.81 mya), including a new Central Rocky Mountain lineage. We further found evidence for population differentiation across multiple spatial scales, and reconstructed levels of standing variation comparable to those found in other small mammals. Overall, our findings demonstrate the influence of past glacial cycles on O. princeps lineage diversification, suggest that current subspecific taxonomy may need to be revisited, and provide an important framework for investigations of American pika adaptive potential in the face of anthropogenic climate change.

Contrasting responses of Thermocyclops crassus and T. oithonoides (Crustacea, Copepoda) to thermal stress

Thermal tolerance is a critical factor influencing the survival of living organisms. This study focuses on the thermal resistance of copepod species, Thermocyclops crassus (Fischer, 1853) and T. oithonoides (Sars G.O., 1863), with overlapping distribution ranges in Europe. Short-term heat shock experiments were conducted to assess the thermal resistance of these copepods, considering various temperature increments and exposure durations. Additionally, the study explored the influence of heat shock on egg sac shedding, a vital indicator of population dynamics. Results indicate that widely distributed T. crassus exhibits higher thermal tolerance compared to narrowly distributed T. oithonoides, with survival rates varying under different heat shock conditions. Furthermore, T. crassus demonstrated a quicker response in dropping egg sacs in response to thermal stress, suggesting a potential adaptive mechanism for the survival of adults. However, rapid egg sac droppings pose high risks for eggs facing unfavorable conditions. T. crassus, inhabiting environments with greater temperature fluctuations such as the littoral and pelagial zones, exhibited better survival mechanisms compared to T. oithonoides, which predominantly resides in the pelagic zone. The findings have implications for understanding copepod responses to global warming and thermal pollution. This research contributes insights into the adaptive strategies of thermophilic copepod species and their ecological consequences.

Thermal tolerance of cultured and wild Icelandic arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) at self-selected flow rates

Climate change is predicted to change not only the temperature of many freshwater systems but also flow dynamics. Understanding how fishes will fare in the future requires knowing how they will respond to both extended variations of temperature and flow. Arctic charr have had their thermal tolerance measured, but never with respect to flow. Additionally, this circumpolar species has multiple populations exhibiting dramatic phenotypic plasticity which may mean that regional differences in thermal tolerance are unaccounted for. In Iceland, Arctic charr populations have experienced highly variable flow and temperature conditions over the past 10,000 years. The Icelandic climate, topography and geothermal activity have created a mosaic of freshwater habitats inhabited by charr that vary substantially in both temperature and flow. Our purpose was to test whether populations from these varied environments had altered thermal tolerance and whether phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance in charr depends on flow. We raised cultured Icelandic charr from hatch under a 2 X 2 matrix of flow and temperature and compared them to wild charr captured from matching flow and temperature environments. Wild fish were more thermally tolerant than cultured fish at both acclimation temperatures and were more thermally plastic. Icelandic Arctic charr were more thermally tolerant than comparison charr populations across Europe and North America, but only when acclimated to 13 °C; fish acclimated to 5 °C compared equably with comparison charr populations. Icelandic Arctic charr were also more thermally plastic than all but one other salmonine species. Neither flow of rearing or the flow selected during a thermal tolerance (CTmax) test factored into thermal tolerance. Thermal tolerance was also independent of body size, condition factor, heart and gill size. In summary, wild Icelandic Arctic charr have greater thermal tolerance and plasticity than predicted from the literature and their latitude, but artificial selection for properties like growth rate or fecundity may be breeding that increased tolerance out of cultured fish. As the world moves toward a warmer climate and increased dependence on cultured fish, this is a noteworthy result and merits further study.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

Thermal sensitivity of black corals (Antipatharia: Hexacorallia): Comparisons between sympatric species from a thermally fluctuating site in Madagascar and between allopatric congenerics

This study investigated factors shaping the thermal sensitivity in antipatharians, a taxon whose members form dense aggregations in all oceans, harbouring a high biodiversity. First, we tested the thermal responses of five sympatric species (Antipathes grandis, Cupressopathes abies, Stichopathes cf. maldivensis, Cirrhipathes anguina and Cirrhipathes cf. spiralis) from the Great Reef of Toliara (Madagascar), using an acute ramping methodology. We then compared the thermal performance curves (TPCs) for oxygen consumption of these five species. Results indicated that phylogeny alone does not explain differences in thermal sensitivity (Antipathidae vs. Myriopathidae). On the contrary, morphology (branched vs. unbranched) appeared as a key factor, with unbranched species (S. cf. maldivensis, C. anguina, C. cf. spiralis) being more tolerant to thermal stress than branched ones (A. grandis and C. abies). Several hypothesis could explain these variations in thermal tolerance across morphology, such as tissue thickness, surface/volume ratio or mass-transfer efficiency. Secondly, we compared the TPC of Stichopathes from Madagascar with those previously obtained in congenerics from the Canary Islands and French Polynesia. This revealed a higher thermal tolerance in the two former than in the latter. It is proposed that it is linked to higher annual temperature variability (but not daily variability) in these two sites compared to French Polynesia. It is concluded that thermal sensitivity in antipatharians is linked to their morphology influencing their physiology and to their thermal history. Phylogeny at the family level plays a less important role in explaining differences in thermal sensitivity in antipatharians.

Mating system induced lags in rates of range expansion for different simulated mating systems and dispersal strategies: a modelling study

Mismatches between current and potential species distributions are commonplace due to lags in the response of populations to changing environmental conditions. The prevailing mating system may contribute to such lags where it leads to mating failure at the range edge, but how active dispersers might mitigate these lags using social information to inform dispersal strategies warrants greater exploration. We used an individual-based model to explore how different mating systems for species that actively search for habitat can impose a filter on the ability to colonise empty, fragmented landscapes, and explored how using social information during dispersal can mitigate the lags caused by more constrained mating systems. The mate-finding requirements implemented in two-sex models consistently led to slower range expansion compared to those that were not mate limited (i.e., female only models), even when mating was polygynous. A mate-search settlement strategy reduced the proportion of unmated females at the range edge but had little impact on rate of spread. In contrast, a negative density-dependent settlement strategy resulted in much faster spread, which could be explained by a greater number of long-distance dispersal events. Our findings suggest that even low rates of mating failure at the range edge can lead to considerable lags in range expansion, though dispersal strategies that favour colonising more distant, sparsely occupied habitat patches may effectively mitigate these lags.

The global importance and interplay of colour-based protective and thermoregulatory functions in frogs

Small-scale studies have shown that colour lightness variation can have important physiological implications in ectotherms, with darker species having greater heating rates, as well as protection against pathogens and photooxidative damage. Using data for 41% (3059) of all known frog and toad species (Anura) from across the world, we reveal ubiquitous and strong clines of decreasing colour lightness towards colder regions and regions with higher pathogen pressure and UVB radiation. The relative importance of pathogen resistance is higher in the tropics and that of thermoregulation is higher in temperate regions. The results suggest that these functions influence colour lightness evolution in anurans and filtered for more similarly coloured species under climatic extremes, while their concurrent importance resulted in high within-assemblage variation in productive regions. Our findings indicate three important functions of colour lightness in anurans - thermoregulation, pathogen and UVB protection - and broaden support for colour lightness-environment relationships in ectotherms.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Changes in Community Composition and Functional Traits of Bumblebees in an Alpine Ecosystem Relate to Climate Warming

Climate warming has been observed as the main cause of changes in diversity, community composition, and spatial distribution of different plant and invertebrate species. Due to even stronger warming compared to the global mean, bumblebees in alpine ecosystems are particularly exposed to these changes. To investigate the effects of climate warming, we sampled bumblebees along an elevational gradient, compared the records with data from 1935 and 1936, and related our results to climate models. We found that bumblebee community composition differed significantly between sampling periods and that increasing temperatures in spring were the most plausible factor explaining these range shifts. In addition, species diversity estimates were significantly lower compared to historical records. The number of socio-parasitic species was significantly higher in the historical communities, while recent communities showed increases in climate generalists and forest species at lower elevations. Nevertheless, no significant changes in community-weighted means of a species temperature index (STI) or the number of cold-adapted species were detected, likely due to the historical data resolution. We conclude that the composition and functionality of bumblebee communities in the study area have been significantly affected by climate warming, with changes in land use and vegetation cover likely playing an additional important role.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

The influence of stochastic temperature fluctuations in shaping the physiological performance of the California mussel, Mytilus californianus

Climate change is forecasted to increase temperature variability and stochasticity. Most of our understanding of thermal physiology of intertidal organisms has come from laboratory experiments that acclimate organisms to submerged conditions and steady-state increases in temperatures. For organisms experiencing the ebb and flow of tides with unpredictable low tide aerial temperatures, the reliability of reported tolerances and thus predicted responses to climate change requires incorporation of environmental complexity into empirical studies. Using the mussel Mytilus californianus, our study examined how stochasticity of the thermal regime influences physiological performance. Mussels were acclimated to either submerged conditions or a tidal cycle that included either predictable, unpredictable or no thermal stress during daytime low tide. Physiological performance was measured through anaerobic metabolism, energy stores and cellular stress mechanisms just before low tide, and cardiac responses during a thermal ramp. Both air exposure and stochasticity of temperature change were important in determining thermal performance. Glycogen content was highest in the mussels from the unpredictable treatment, but there was no difference in the expression of heat shock proteins between thermal treatments, suggesting that mussels prioritise energy reserves to deal with unpredictable low tide conditions. Mussels exposed to fluctuating thermal regimes had lower gill anaerobic metabolism, which could reflect increased metabolic capacity. Our results suggest that while thermal magnitude plays an important role in shaping physiological performance, other key elements of the intertidal environment complexity such as stochasticity, thermal variability, and thermal history are also important considerations for determining how species will respond to climate warming.

The effect of thermally robust ballistic mechanisms on climatic niche in salamanders

Many organismal functions are temperature-dependent due to the contractile properties of muscle. Spring-based mechanisms offer a thermally robust alternative to temperature-sensitive muscular movements and may correspondingly expand a species’ climatic niche by partially decoupling the relationship between temperature and performance. Using the ballistic tongues of salamanders as a case study, we explore whether the thermal robustness of elastic feeding mechanisms increases climatic niche breadth, expands geographic range size, and alters the dynamics of niche evolution. Combining phylogenetic comparative methods with global climate data, we find that the feeding mechanism imparts no discernable signal on either climatic niche properties or the evolutionary dynamics of most climatic niche parameters. Although biomechanical innovation in feeding influences many features of whole-organism performance, it does not appear to drive macro-climatic niche evolution in salamanders. We recommend that future work incorporate micro-scale environmental data to better capture the conditions that salamanders experience, and we discuss a few outstanding questions in this regard. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for an investigation into the evolutionary relationships between climatic niche and biomechanical traits in ectotherms.

Reduction in thermal stress of marine copepods after physiological acclimation

We studied the phenotypic response to temperature of the marine copepod Paracartia grani at the organismal and cellular levels. First, the acute (2 days) survival, feeding and reproductive performances at 6-35°C were determined. Survival was very high up to ca. 30°C and then dropped, whereas feeding and fecundity peaked at 23-27°C. An acclimation response developed after longer exposures (7 days), resulting in a decline of the biological rate processes. As a consequence, Q₁₀ coefficients dropped from 2.6 to 1.6, and from 2.7 to 1.7 for ingestion and egg production, respectively. Due to the similarity in feeding and egg production thermal responses, gross-growth efficiencies did not vary with temperature. Respiration rates were less sensitive (lower Q₁₀) and showed an opposite pattern, probably influenced by starvation during the incubations. The acclimation response observed in the organismal rate processes was accompanied by changes in body stoichiometry and in the antioxidant defense and cell-repair mechanisms. Predictions of direct effects of temperature on copepod performance should consider the reduction of Q₁₀ coefficients due to the acclimation response. Copepod population dynamic models often use high Q₁₀ values and may overestimate thermal effects.

Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change

A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss.

Warming temperatures drive at least half of the magnitude of long-term trait changes in European birds

Climate change is impacting wild populations, but its relative importance compared to other causes of change is still unclear. Many studies assume that changes in traits primarily reflect effects of climate change, but this assumption is rarely tested. We show that in European birds global warming was likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends in laying date, body condition, and offspring number. However, nontemperature factors were also important and acted in the same direction, implying that attributing temporal trends solely to rising temperatures overestimates the impact of climate warming. Differences among species in the amount of trait change were predominantly determined by these nontemperature effects, suggesting that species differences are not due to variation in sensitivity to temperature.

Many wild populations are experiencing temporal changes in life-history and other phenotypic traits, and these changes are frequently assumed to be driven by climate change rather than nonclimatic drivers. However, this assumption relies on three conditions: that local climate is changing, traits are sensitive to climate variability, and other drivers are not also changing over time. Although many studies acknowledge one or more of these conditions, all three are rarely checked simultaneously. Consequently, the relative contribution of climate change to trait change, and the variation in this contribution across traits and species, remain unclear. We used long-term datasets on 60 bird species in Europe to test the three conditions in laying date, offspring number, and body condition and used a method that quantifies the contribution of warming temperatures to changes in traits relative to other effects. Across species, approximately half of the magnitude of changes in traits could be attributed to rising mean temperature, suggesting that increasing temperatures are likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends and emphasizes the impact that global warming is having on natural populations. There were also substantial nontemperature-related temporal trends (presumably due to other changes such as urbanization), which generally caused trait change in the same direction as warming. Attributing temporal trends solely to warming thus overestimates the impact of warming. Furthermore, contributions from nontemperature drivers explained most of the interspecific variation in trait changes, raising concerns about comparative studies that attribute differences in temporal trends to species differences in climate-change sensitivity.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Local thermal environment and warming influence supercooling and drive widespread shifts in the metabolome of diapausing Pieris rapae butterflies

Global climate change has the potential to negatively impact biological systems as organisms are exposed to novel temperature regimes. Increases in annual mean temperature have been accompanied by disproportionate rates of change in temperature across seasons, and winter is the season warming most rapidly. Yet, we know relatively little about how warming will alter the physiology of overwintering organisms. Here, we simulated future warming conditions by comparing diapausing Pieris rapae butterfly pupae collected from disparate thermal environments and by exposing P. rapae pupae to acute and chronic increases in temperature. First, we compared internal freezing temperatures (supercooling points) of diapausing pupae that were developed in common-garden conditions but whose parents were collected from northern Vermont, USA, or North Carolina, USA. Matching the warmer winter climate of North Carolina, North Carolina pupae had significantly higher supercooling points than Vermont pupae. Next, we measured the effects of acute and chronic warming exposure in Vermont pupae and found that warming induced higher supercooling points. We further characterized the effects of chronic warming by profiling the metabolomes of Vermont pupae via untargeted LC-MS metabolomics. Warming caused significant changes in abundance of hundreds of metabolites across the metabolome. Notably, there were warming-induced shifts in key biochemical pathways, such as pyruvate metabolism, fructose and mannose metabolism, and β-alanine metabolism, suggesting shifts in energy metabolism and cryoprotection. These results suggest that warming affects various aspects of overwintering physiology in P. rapae and may be detrimental depending on the frequency and variation of winter warming events. Further research is needed to ascertain the extent to which the effects of warming are felt among a broader set of populations of P. rapae, and among other species, in order to better predict how insects may respond to changes in winter thermal environments.

Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?

We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.

Thermal tolerance of cyprinids along an urban-rural gradient: Plasticity, repeatability and effects of swimming and temperature shock

Urbanization changes the thermal profile of streams in much the same way that climate change is predicted to with higher temperatures, more varied flow and rapid temperature pulses with precipitation events. Whether exceptional tolerance to these altered thermal conditions is a pre-requisite for a fish species to inhabit urban streams or if urbanization has changed the thermal physiology of those fish species that persist in urban streams is unknown, but could help predict the outcome of future climate disruption. To test whether residence in urban streams is associated with altered thermal tolerance, we compared thermal tolerance (CT_Max) and phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance (ΔCT_Max/Δ acclimation temperature) in five populations of an urban-tolerant cyprinid, the blacknose dace (Rhinichthys atratulus), from multiple watersheds along an urban/rural gradient. Thermal tolerance of these stream fish was tested while swimming at 10 cm*s^-1 but also in static water and after thermal shocks of 4°-6 °C simulating precipitation events. To test whether blacknose dace as a species has unusual thermal tolerance or thermal plasticity, we also compared two blacknose dace populations with two co-resident, co-familiars (creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) and rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), that don't persist in urban streams at three different acclimation temperatures. Thermal tolerance of blacknose dace, as measured by a critical thermal maximum test (CT_Max), was independent of size and activity level, i.e. individuals had identical thermal tolerance whether swimming or resting and CT_Max was significantly repeatable across two levels of activity. Although there was some variance among populations, blacknose dace from streams of varied urbanization generally exhibited comparable thermal tolerances, ability to acclimate to different temperatures and were unaffected by thermal shocks. Rosyside dace had significantly lower thermal tolerance than the other two species but plasticity of thermal tolerance was uniform across the three cyprinid species. Our conclusions are that exceptional thermal tolerance or ability to thermally acclimate are not pre-requisite characters for a given cyprinid species to survive in urban streams, nor has thermal tolerance undergone directional selection in this urban environment.

Behavioral Thermoregulation by Mothers Protects Offspring from Global Warming but at a Cost

AbstractThermal conditions during embryonic development affect offspring phenotype in ectotherms. Therefore, rising environmental temperatures can have important consequences for an individual's fitness. Nonetheless, females have some capacity to compensate for potential negative consequences that adverse developmental environments may have on their offspring. Recent studies show that oviparous reptiles exhibit behavioral plasticity in nest site selection, which can buffer their embryos against high incubation temperatures; however, much less is known about these responses in viviparous reptiles. We subjected pregnant viviparous skinks, Saiphos equalis, to current or projected midcentury (2050) temperatures to test (i) how elevated temperatures affect female thermoregulatory and foraging behavior; (ii) whether temperatures experienced by females during pregnancy negatively affect the morphology, performance, and behavior of hatchlings; and (iii) whether behavioral thermoregulation during pregnancy is costly to females. Females from the elevated temperature treatment compensated by going deeper belowground to seek cooler temperatures and eating less, and they consequently had a lower body mass relative to snout-to-vent length (condition estimator) compared with females from the current thermal treatment. The temperatures experienced by females in the elevated temperature treatment were high enough to affect foraging and locomotor performance but not the morphology and growth rate of hatchlings. By seeking cooler temperatures, mothers can mitigate some of the effects of high temperatures on their offspring (e.g., reduced body size and growth). However, this protective behavior of females may come at an energetic cost to them. This study adds to growing evidence of lizards' vulnerability to global warming, particularly during reproduction when females are already paying a substantial cost.

Expanding insect pollinators in the Anthropocene

Global changes are severely affecting pollinator insect communities worldwide, resulting in repeated patterns of species extirpations and extinctions. Whilst negative population trends within this functional group have understandably received much attention in recent decades, another facet of global changes has been overshadowed: species undergoing expansion. Here, we review the factors and traits that have allowed a fraction of the pollinating entomofauna to take advantage of global environmental change. Sufficient mobility, high resistance to acute heat stress, and inherent adaptation to warmer climates appear to be key traits that allow pollinators to persist and even expand in the face of climate change. An overall flexibility in dietary and nesting requirements is common in expanding species, although niche specialization can also drive expansion under specific contexts. The numerous consequences of wild and domesticated pollinator expansions, including competition for resources, pathogen spread, and hybridization with native wildlife, are also discussed. Overall, we show that the traits and factors involved in the success stories of expanding pollinators are mostly species specific and context dependent, rendering generalizations of 'winning traits' complicated. This work illustrates the increasing need to consider expansion and its numerous consequences as significant facets of global changes and encourages efforts to monitor the impacts of expanding insect pollinators, particularly exotic species, on natural ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

Cool birds: facultative use by an introduced species of mechanical air conditioning systems during extremely hot outdoor conditions

Rapid climate change across the globe is having dramatic effects on wildlife. Responses of organisms to shifting thermal conditions often include physiological and behavioural accommodations, but to date these have been largely viewed and studied as naturally evolved phenomena (e.g. heat avoidance, sweating, panting) and not necessarily as strategies where animals exploit other anthropogenic conditions or resources. Moreover, the degree to which native versus introduced species show thermal plasticity has generated much conservation and ecological interest. We previously have observed introduced rosy-faced lovebirds (Agapornis roseicollis) perching in the relief-air vents on building faces in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan area, but doing so only during summer. Here, we show that such vent-perching events are significantly associated with extreme outdoor summer temperatures (when daily local highs routinely exceed 40°C). In fact, the temperature threshold at which we detected lovebirds starting to perch in cool air vents mirrors the upper range of the thermoneutral zone for this species. These results implicate novel, facultative use of an anthropogenic resource-industrial air-conditioning systems-by a recently introduced species (within the last 35 years) to cool down and survive extremely hot conditions in this urban 'heat-island' environment.

Physiological, developmental, and behavioral plasticity in response to thermal acclimation

Organisms with complex ecologies and life-cycle processes may shift physiologically (acclimation in tolerance), developmentally, and/or behaviorally (thermoregulation) in response to changes in climate. As such, climate change may trigger multiple, interacting phenotypic responses, which underscores the nuances of characterizing a species capacity to adapt and respond to climate change. In this study, we use a model frog species, Bufo gargarizans, to examine how three phenotypes, thermal tolerance limits (critical thermal minimum, CT_min and critical thermal maximum, CT_max), ontogeny, and behavioral preferences in temperature (T_pref) respond to different levels of thermal exposure (i.e., acclimation ranging from 10 °C to 30 °C). Acclimation temperature had little effect on T_pref of tadpoles, yet behaviorally they showed strong signs of thermal selection towards an optimum. Both CT_min and CT_max increased with acclimation temperature with an approximate 10% increase in tolerance limits per 1 °C increase in exposure. Development and body size both responded to acclimation temperature, both of which also influenced lower but not upper thermal limits. Our study highlights the idiosyncrasies of estimating climate vulnerability, where multiple phenotypes can respond to shifts in temperature-a complexity that is especially apparent in species with complex life-cycles.

Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

Field data confirm the ability of a biophysical model to predict wild primate body temperature

In the face of climate change there is an urgent need to understand how animal performance is affected by environmental conditions. Biophysical models that use principles of heat and mass transfer can be used to explore how an animal's morphology, physiology, and behavior interact with its environment in terms of energy, mass and water balances to affect fitness and performance. We used Niche Mapper™ (NM) to build a vervet monkey (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) biophysical model and tested the model's ability to predict core body temperature (T_b) variation and thermal stress against T_b and behavioral data collected from wild vervets in South Africa. The mean observed T_b in both males and females was within 0.5 °C of NM's predicted T_bs for 91% of hours over the five-year study period. This is the first time that NM's T_b predictions have been validated against field data from a wild endotherm. Overall, these results provide confidence that NM can accurately predict thermal stress and can be used to provide insight into the thermoregulatory consequences of morphological (e.g., body size, shape, fur depth), physiological (e.g. T_b plasticity) and behavioral (e.g., huddling, resting, shade seeking) adaptations. Such an approach allows users to test hypotheses about how animals adapt to thermoregulatory challenges and make informed predictions about potential responses to environmental change such as climate change or habitat conversion. Importantly, NM's animal submodel is a general model that can be adapted to other species, requiring only basic information on an animal's morphology, physiology and behavior.

Intra- and interspecific variation in the responses of insect phenology to climate

Phenological change is the most widely documented biological impact of climate change, but shows marked variation in magnitude among populations and species. Thus, quantifying the environmental factors and organismal differences driving this intra- and interspecific variability in phenology is vital to understand and forecast the ecological consequences of climate change. Here, we test intra- and interspecific differences for a set of butterfly species in the organismal sensitivity of flight phenology and its dependence on environmental factors, using as our model system an elevation gradient in a Mediterranean mountain range where temperature and relative humidity vary substantially over space and time. We use field-collected meteorological data, and butterfly counts for 20 univoltine species over 14 years, to test the relative effects on phenology of temperature and relative humidity, the sensitivity of phenology to spatial and temporal variation in temperature and whether ecological traits account for inter-specific variation in sensitivity. For all species, temperature in the months immediately preceding adult emergence had the strongest relationship with phenology. All species appeared earlier in warmer years, with those flying earlier in the season showing the greatest sensitivity to annual (temporal) variation in temperature. However, only a minority of species showed evidence of plastic, space-for-time responses to temperature. Instead, most species showed strong evidence that phenology was more sensitive to temporal than spatial variation in temperature. Our results support the dominant influence of temperature on phenology, even in Mediterranean environments suffering summer drought. They also suggest that accurate forecasts of species' phenological shifts could require the isolation of spatial from temporal components of temperature variation, because the sensitivity of populations and species may differ across these two dimensions. The factors driving synchronisation of phenology over space merit particular research in the context of climate change, given their potential to expose populations simultaneously to environmental extremes.

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.

Trait-Based Assessments of Climate-Change Impacts on Interacting Species

Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change.

Beyond survival experiments: using biomarkers of oxidative stress and neurotoxicity to assess vulnerability of subterranean fauna to climate change

Accurate assessments of species vulnerability to climate change need to consider the physiological capacity of organisms to deal with temperature changes and identify early signs of thermally induced stress. Oxidative stress biomarkers and acetylcholinesterase activity are useful proxies of stress at the cellular and nervous system level. Such responses are especially relevant for poor dispersal organisms with limited capacity for behavioural thermoregulation, like deep subterranean species. We combined experimental measurements of upper lethal thermal limits, acclimation capacity and biomarkers of oxidative stress and neurotoxicity to assess the impact of heat stress (20°C) at different exposure times (2 and 7 days) on the Iberian endemic subterranean beetle Parvospeonomus canyellesi. Survival response (7 days of exposure) was similar to that reported for other subterranean specialist beetles (high survival up to 20°C but no above 23°C). However, a low physiological plasticity (i.e. incapacity to increase heat tolerance via acclimation) and signs of impairment at the cellular and nervous system level were observed after 7 days of exposure at 20°C. Such sublethal effects were identified by significant differences in total antioxidant capacity, glutathione S-transferase activity, the ratio of reduced to oxidized forms of glutathione and acetylcholinesterase activity between the control (cave temperature) and 20°C treatment. At 2 days of exposure, most biomarker values indicated some degree of oxidative stress in both the control and high-temperature treatment, likely reflecting an initial altered physiological status associated to factors other than temperature. Considering these integrated responses and the predicted increase in temperature in its unique locality, P. canyellesi would have a narrower thermal safety margin to face climate change than that obtained considering only survival experiments. Our results highlight the importance of exploring thermally sensitive processes at different levels of biological organization to obtain more accurate estimates of the species capacity to face climate change.

Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change

Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.

Butterfly distribution along altitudinal gradients: temporal changes over a short time period

Mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to changes in climate and land cover, but at the same time, they can offer important refuges for species on the opposite of the more altered lowlands. To explore the potential role of mountain ecosystems in butterfly conservation and to assess the vulnerability of the alpine species, we analyzed the short-term changes (2006–2008 vs. 2012–2013) of butterflies’ distribution along altitudinal gradients in the NW Italian Alps. We sampled butterfly communities once a month (62 sampling stations, 3 seasonal replicates per year, from June to August) by semi-quantitative sampling techniques. The monitored gradient ranges from the montane to the alpine belt (600–2700 m a.s.l.) within three protected areas: Gran Paradiso National Park (LTER, Sitecode: LTER_EU_IT_109), Orsiera Rocciavrè Natural Park and Veglia Devero Natural Park. We investigated butterflies’ temporal changes in accordance with a hierarchical approach to assess potential relationships between species and community level. As a first step, we characterized each species in terms of habitat requirements, elevational range and temperature preferences and we compared plot occupancy and altitudinal range changes between time periods (2006–2008 vs. 2012–2013). Secondly, we focused on community level, analyzing species richness and community composition temporal changes. The species level analysis highlighted a general increase in mean occupancy level and significant changes at both altitudinal boundaries. Looking at the ecological groups, we observed an increase of generalist and highly mobile species at the expense of the specialist and less mobile ones. For the community level, we noticed a significant increase in species richness, in the community temperature index and a tendency towards homogenization within communities. Besides the short time period considered, butterflies species distribution and communities changed considerably. In light of these results, it is fundamental to continue monitoring activities to understand if we are facing transient changes or first signals of an imminent trend.

Local range boundaries vs. large-scale trade-offs: climatic and competitive constraints on tree growth

Species often respond to human-caused climate change by shifting where they occur on the landscape. To anticipate these shifts, we need to understand the forces that determine where species currently occur. We tested whether a long-hypothesised trade-off between climate and competitive constraints explains where tree species grow on mountain slopes. Using tree rings, we reconstructed growth sensitivity to climate and competition in range centre and range margin tree populations in three climatically distinct regions. We found that climate often constrains growth at environmentally harsh elevational range boundaries, and that climatic and competitive constraints trade-off at large spatial scales. However, there was less evidence that competition consistently constrained growth at benign elevational range boundaries; thus, local-scale climate-competition trade-offs were infrequent. Our work underscores the difficulty of predicting local-scale range dynamics, but suggests that the constraints on tree performance at a large-scale (e.g. latitudinal) may be predicted from ecological theory.

A century of climate and land-use change cause species turnover without loss of beta diversity in California's Central Valley

Climate and land-use changes are thought to be the greatest threats to biodiversity, but few studies have directly measured their simultaneous impacts on species distributions. We used a unique historic resource-early 20th-century bird surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues-paired with contemporary resurveys a century later to examine changes in bird distributions in California's Central Valley, one of the most intensively modified agricultural zones in the world and a region of heterogeneous climate change. We analyzed species- and community-level occupancy using multispecies occupancy models that explicitly accounted for imperfect detection probability, and developed a novel, simulation-based method to compare the relative influences of climate and land-use covariates on site-level species richness and beta diversity (measured by Jaccard similarity). Surprisingly, we show that mean occupancy, species richness and between-site similarity have remained remarkably stable over the past century. Stability in community-level metrics masked substantial changes in species composition; occupancy declines of some species were equally matched by increases in others, predominantly species with generalist or human-associated habitat preferences. Bird occupancy, richness and diversity within each era were driven most strongly by water availability (precipitation and percent water cover), indicating that both climate and land-use are important drivers of species distributions. Water availability had much stronger effects than temperature, urbanization and agricultural cover, which are typically thought to drive biodiversity decline.

Habitat choice meets thermal specialization: Competition with specialists may drive suboptimal habitat preferences in generalists

Limited dispersal is classically considered as a prerequisite for ecological specialization to evolve, such that generalists are expected to show greater dispersal propensity compared with specialists. However, when individuals choose habitats that maximize their performance instead of dispersing randomly, theory predicts dispersal with habitat choice to evolve in specialists, while generalists should disperse more randomly. We tested whether habitat choice is associated with thermal niche specialization using microcosms of the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila, a species that performs active dispersal. We found that thermal specialists preferred optimal habitats as predicted by theory, a link that should make specialists more likely to track suitable conditions under environmental changes than expected under the random dispersal assumption. Surprisingly, generalists also performed habitat choice but with a preference for suboptimal habitats. Since this result challenges current theory, we developed a metapopulation model to understand under which circumstances such a preference for suboptimal habitats should evolve. We showed that competition between generalists and specialists may favor a preference for niche margins in generalists under environmental variability. Our results demonstrate that the behavioral dimension of dispersal-here, habitat choice-fundamentally alters our predictions of how dispersal evolve with niche specialization, making dispersal behaviors crucial for ecological forecasting facing environmental changes.

Climate Change and Phenological Mismatch in Trophic Interactions Among Plants, Insects, and Vertebrates

Phenological mismatch results when interacting species change the timing of regularly repeated phases in their life cycles at different rates. We review whether this continuously ongoing phenomenon, also known as trophic asynchrony, is becoming more common under ongoing rapid climate change. In antagonistic trophic interactions, any mismatch will have negative impacts for only one of the species, whereas in mutualistic interactions, both partners are expected to suffer. Trophic mismatch is therefore expected to last for evolutionarily short periods, perhaps only a few seasons, adding to the difficulty of attributing it to climate change, which requires long-term data. So far, the prediction that diverging phenologies linked to climate change will cause mismatch is most clearly met in antagonistic interactions at high latitudes in the Artic. There is limited evidence of phenological mismatch in mutualistic interactions, possibly because of strong selection on mutualists to have co-adapted phenological strategies. The study of individual plasticity, population variation, and the genetic bases for phenological strategies is in its infancy. Recent work on woody plants revealed the large imprint of historic climate change on temperature, chilling, and day-length thresholds used by different species to synchronize their phenophases, which in the Northern Hemisphere has led to biogeographic phenological regions in which long-lived plants have adapted to particular interannual and intermillennial amplitudes of climate change.

Generality in multispecies responses to ocean acidification revealed through multiple hypothesis testing

Decades of research have demonstrated that many calcifying species are negatively affected by ocean acidification, a major anthropogenic threat in marine ecosystems. However, even closely related species may exhibit different responses to ocean acidification and less is known about the drivers that shape such variation in different species. Here, we examine the drivers of physiological performance under ocean acidification in a group of five species of turf-forming coralline algae. Specifically, quantitating the relative weight of evidence for each of ten hypotheses, we show that variation in coralline calcification and photosynthesis was best explained by allometric traits. Across ocean acidification conditions, larger individuals (measured as noncalcified mass) had higher net calcification and photosynthesis rates. Importantly, our approach was able to not only identify the aspect of size that drove the performance of coralline algae, but also determined that responses to ocean acidification were not dependent on species identity, evolutionary relatedness, habitat, shape, or structural composition. In fact, we found that failure to test multiple, alternative hypotheses would underestimate the generality of physiological performances, leading to the conclusion that each species had different baseline performance under ocean acidification. Testing among alternative hypotheses is an essential step toward determining the generalizability of experiments across taxa and identifying common drivers of species responses to global change.