Problems for judgment and decision making

Age-Related Differences in Framing Selective Memory in Terms of Gains and Losses

We examined whether framing younger and older adults learning goals in terms of maximizing gains or minimizing losses impacts their ability to selectively remember high-value information. Specifically, we presented younger and older adults with lists of words paired with point values and participants were either told that they would receive the value associated with each word if they recalled it on a test or that they would lose the points associated with each word if they failed to recall it on the test. We also asked participants to predict the likelihood of recalling each word to determine if younger and older adults were metacognitively aware of any potential framing effects. Results revealed that older adults expected to be more selective when their goals were framed in terms of losses, but younger adults expected to be more selective when their goals were framed in terms of gains. However, this was not the case as both younger and older adults were more selective for high-value information when their goals were framed in terms of maximizing gains compared with minimizing losses. Thus, the framing of learning goals can impact metacognitive decisions and subsequent memory in both younger and older adults.

Perception of hypotheticality in technology-based business ideas: effects on Opportunity Beliefs from a Construal Level Theory perspective

This research investigates how entrepreneurs perceive the hypothetical nature of technologies (based on situations that are often imagined or theoretical) as a foundation for entrepreneurial endeavors and how this perception influences the formation of business Opportunity Beliefs. Drawing on the Construal Level Theory, we explore the relationship between the perceived hypotheticality of technologies and Opportunity Beliefs. Two experimental studies are conducted to examine these relationships, with Study 1 (n = 177 entrepreneurs) focusing on the perception of innovative technologies as more distant or hypothetical, and Study 2 (n = 404 entrepreneurs) delving into how the perceived distance to technology influences Opportunity Beliefs. The results indicate that entrepreneurs view more innovative technologies as more hypothetical and that hypotheticality mediates the relationship between the perceived degree of innovation and Opportunity Beliefs. We find evidence that Entrepreneurs tend to view the feasibility and fit/alignment of business opportunities more favorably when they perceive the psychological distance (hypotheticality) of the opportunity as closer rather than more distant. However, the difference this difference is nonsignificant in how they evaluate the desirability of the opportunity in any psychological distance. These results provide insight into the cognitive processes of entrepreneurs and offer implications for understanding how entrepreneurs perceive and evaluate business opportunities.

Test of Practical Judgment (TOP-J): Construct, Criterion, and Incremental Validity in a Community Sample of Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

The Test of Practical Judgment (TOP-J) is a stand-alone judgment measure that is considered to tap into aspects of executive functioning (EF) and inform clinical predictions of daily functioning in older adults. Past validation research is variable and has some limitations. The present study sought to examine the reliability and construct, criterion, and incremental validities of scores on TOP-J 9-item version (TOP-J/9).

METHOD

Participants were 95 community-dwelling older adults aged 60 to 85. Participants completed TOP-J/9, measures of EF and global cognition, and three different modalities of instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) (self-report, performance-based tasks conducted in the laboratory, and performance-based tasks completed at home over 3 weeks).

RESULTS

TOP-J/9 scores showed adequate internal consistency (α = 0.73) after correcting for the low number of items. TOP-J/9 was correlated with global cognition and EF, although EF did not survive correction for lower-order processes. Finally, although TOP-J/9 scores were associated with home-based IADL tasks (but not with self-report and laboratory-based IADLs), providing some evidence of criterion validity, they did not incrementally contribute to home-based IADL performance beyond other cognitive measures. However, when two items pertaining to social/ethical judgment were removed, this modified version of TOP-J did relate to EF beyond lower-order processes and contributed uniquely to prediction of home-based IADLs beyond other measures.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that TOP-J/9 taps into global cognitive status (but not necessarily EF) and predicts "real-world" functioning (but not above and beyond other cognitive measures). TOP-J psychometrics may be improved by removing two social/ethical items.

Exploring the impact of smartphone addiction on decision-making behavior in college students: an fNIRS study based on the Iowa Gambling Task

The pervasive use of smartphones, while enhancing accessibility to information and communication, has raised concerns about its potential negative effects on physical and mental health, including the impairment of decision-making abilities. This study investigates the influence of smartphone addiction on decision-making in college students. A sample of 80 individuals aged 17 to 26 was selected and divided into two groups based on their Smartphone Addiction Scale-Short Version (SAS-SV) scores. Participants underwent the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to evaluate their decision-making in risky and uncertain conditions, while fNIRS recorded their prefrontal cortex activity. The study found that individuals prone to smartphone addiction tend to make riskier choices in risky situations. However, when faced with decisions based on ambiguity, the smartphone addiction group showed increased brain activity in the dlPFC (specifically in channels 4, 9, and 11) compared to when making risky decisions. Despite this increased brain activation, there was no observable difference in behavior between the addiction-prone and control groups in ambiguous scenarios. Notably, the left dlPFC (e.g., channel 4) exhibited significantly higher activation in the addiction group compared to the control group. Findings suggest that smartphone addiction can detrimentally influence decision-making, behaviorally and neurologically, particularly in uncertain contexts. This study supports the classification of smartphone addiction as a genuine addiction and underscores its significance in psychiatric research. In essence, our research underscores the adverse effects of excessive smartphone use on decision-making processes, reinforcing the necessity to treat smartphone addiction as a pressing public health issue.

Parental rights or parental wrongs: Parents' metacognitive knowledge of the factors that influence their school choice decisions

School choice initiatives-which empower parents to choose which schools their children attend-are built on the assumptions that parents know what features of a school are most important to their family and that they are capable of focusing on the most important features when they make their decisions. However, decades of psychological research suggest that decision makers lack metacognitive knowledge of the factors that influence their decisions. We sought to reconcile this discrepancy between the policy assumptions and the psychological research. To do so, we asked participants to complete Choice-Based Conjoint surveys in which they made series of choices between different hypothetical schools. We then asked participants to self-report the weight they placed on each attribute when making their choices. Across four studies, we found that participants did not know how much weight they had placed on various school attributes. Average correlations between stated and revealed weights ranged from r = .34-.54. Stated weights predicted different choices than revealed weights in 16.41-20.63% of decisions. These metacognitive limitations persisted regardless of whether the participants were parents or non-parents (Study 1a/1b), the nature of the attributes that participants used to evaluate alternatives (Study 2), and whether or not decision makers had access to school ratings that could be used as metacognitive aids (Study 3). In line with prior psychological research-and in contract to policy assumptions-these findings demonstrate that decision makers do not have particularly strong metacognitive knowledge of the factors that influence their school choice decisions. As a result, parents making school choice decisions are likely to seek out and use the wrong information, thus leading to suboptimal school choices. Future research should replicate these results in more ecologically valid samples and test new approaches to school choice that account for these metacognitive limitations.

Decisional brain of lawyers at the workplace. A neurolaw pilot study

This pilot study investigated legal and non-legal professionals' decision process during a typical working day. During self-evaluated highly relevant decisions (rated through a daily diary), the two groups were asked to wear the Muse™ Headband to record their electrophysiological (EEG) activity in terms of frequency bands (delta, theta, alpha and beta). EEG cognitive findings displayed a generally increased beta power in the anterior frontal region (mainly in the right than left) for both groups during highly relevant decisions. Significantly results were also found for the legal professionals' group, for which a decrease of alpha power was found in the left compared to right frontal cortex. Furthermore, a decreased alpha power and increased delta and theta power in the right compared to left Temporo-Parietal Junction was observed in the legal professionals when taking highly relevant decisions. This pilot study suggested a specific EEG pattern for legal professionals while taking highly relevant decisions.

Building Human-Like Artificial Agents: A General Cognitive Algorithm for Emulating Human Decision-Making in Dynamic Environments

One of the early goals of artificial intelligence (AI) was to create algorithms that exhibited behavior indistinguishable from human behavior (i.e., human-like behavior). Today, AI has diverged, often aiming to excel in tasks inspired by human capabilities and outperform humans, rather than replicating human cogntion and action. In this paper, I explore the overarching question of whether computational algorithms have achieved this initial goal of AI. I focus on dynamic decision-making, approaching the question from the perspective of computational cognitive science. I present a general cognitive algorithm that intends to emulate human decision-making in dynamic environments, as defined in instance-based learning theory (IBLT). I use the cognitive steps proposed in IBLT to organize and discuss current evidence that supports some of the human-likeness of the decision-making mechanisms. I also highlight the significant gaps in research that are required to improve current models and to create higher fidelity in computational algorithms to represent human decision processes. I conclude with concrete steps toward advancing the construction of algorithms that exhibit human-like behavior with the ultimate goal of supporting human dynamic decision-making.

Parcellation-Based Connectivity Model of the Judgement Core

Judgement is a higher-order brain function utilized in the evaluation process of problem solving. However, heterogeneity in the task methodology based on the many definitions of judgement and its expansive and nuanced applications have prevented the identification of a unified cortical model at a level of granularity necessary for clinical translation. Forty-six task-based fMRI studies were used to generate activation-likelihood estimations (ALE) across moral, social, risky, and interpersonal judgement paradigms. Cortical parcellations overlapping these ALEs were used to delineate patterns in neurocognitive network engagement for the four judgement tasks. Moral judgement involved the bilateral superior frontal gyri, right temporal gyri, and left parietal lobe. Social judgement demonstrated a left-dominant frontoparietal network with engagement of right-sided temporal limbic regions. Moral and social judgement tasks evoked mutual engagement of the bilateral DMN. Both interpersonal and risk judgement were shown to involve a right-sided frontoparietal network with accompanying engagement of the left insular cortex, converging at the right-sided CEN. Cortical activation in normophysiological judgement function followed two separable patterns involving the large-scale neurocognitive networks. Specifically, the DMN was found to subserve judgement centered around social inferences and moral cognition, while the CEN subserved tasks involving probabilistic reasoning, risk estimation, and strategic contemplation.

Exploring the Impact of Smartphone Addiction on Risk Decision-Making Behavior among College Students Based on fNIRS Technology

Smartphone Addiction is a social issue caused by excessive smartphone use, affecting decision-making processes. Current research on the risky decision-making abilities of smartphone addicts is limited. This study used the functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) brain imaging technique and a Sequential Risk-Taking Task experimental paradigm to investigate the decision-making behavior and brain activity of smartphone addicts under varying risk levels. Using a mixed experimental design, the research assessed decision-making ability and brain activation levels as dependent variables across two groups (addiction and control), two risk amounts (high and low), and two outcomes (gain and loss). The study included 42 participants, with 25 in the addiction group and 17 in the control group. Results indicated that risk level significantly impacted the decision-making ability of smartphone addicts, with high-risk levels leading to weaker decision-making ability and increased risk-taking. However, at low-risk levels, decision-making abilities between addicts and healthy individuals showed no significant difference. Furthermore, brain imaging results using fNIRS revealed stronger brain activation in the dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex (dlPFC) region for smartphone addicts under loss outcome conditions, with no significant differences between the two groups in terms of brain activation at varying risk volumes. These findings are critical in promoting healthy smartphone use, guiding clinical treatment, and advancing brain mechanism research.

Differences in visual search behavior between expert and novice team sports athletes: A systematic review with meta-analysis

Background

For a long time, in sports, researchers have tried to understand an expert by comparing them with novices, raising the doubts if the visual search characteristics distinguish experts from novices. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to review and conduct a meta-analysis to evaluate the differences in visual search behavior between experts and novices in team sports athletes.

Methods

This systematic review with meta-analysis followed the PRISMA 2020 and Cochrane's guidelines. Healthy team athletes were included, which engaged in regular practice, from any sex or competitive level, specifically classified a priori as expert or novice in the original research (i.e., if they were classified after the experiment, based on one of the tests, the study would be excluded). We considered only research published in peer-reviewed journals, with no limitations regarding date or language. It was considered healthy team sport athletes engaged in regular practice. The scenarios could be in situ or film-based. The databases of EBSCO (Academic Search Complete, Academic Search Ultimate, APA PsycArticles, and APA PsycINFO), PubMed, Scopus, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science were used to perform the searches. The risk of bias was calculated through the RoBANS tool.

Results

From a total of 6,257 records, of which 985 were duplicates, titles and abstracts of 5,272 were screened, and 45 required full-text analysis. Of those, 23 were excluded due to not fulfilling the eligibility criteria regarding participants. In the end, 22 studies were selected, however, as two studies were part of the same trial and were analyzed conjointly.

Discussion

Experts showed to be older and with more years of practice. The ability to distinguish experts from novices was not so clear regarding the variables analyzed. This could be due to the strategies chosen in each study, which were specific to each scenario, and when grouping all together, it was lost information within non-representative averages. The distinction between experts and novices was not clear, showing a lot of heterogeneity in the included studies. The expert classification itself may have been the conditioning aspect for these results, retaining the doubt and the need for more studies in the field.

Systematic review registration

The protocol was pre-registered in OSF (project https://osf.io/3j4qv/, register https://osf.io/dvk2n).

Decision-making and risk-taking in forensic and non-forensic patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders: A multicenter European study

Studies of patients with schizophrenia and offenders with severe mental disorders decision-making performance have produced mixed findings. In addition, most earlier studies have assessed decision-making skills in offenders or people with mental disorders, separately, thus neglecting the possible additional contribution of a mental disorder on choice patterns in people who offend.

This study aimed to fill this gap by comparing risk-taking in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD), with and without a history of serious violent offending assessing whether, and to what extent, risk-taking represents a significant predictor of group membership, controlling for their executive skills, as well as for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics.

Overall, 115 patients with a primary diagnosis of SSD were recruited: 74 were forensic patients with a lifetime history of severe interpersonal violence and 41 were patients with SSD without such a history. No significant group differences were observed on psychopathological symptoms severity. Forensic generally displayed lower scores than non-forensic patients in all cognitive subtests of the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (except for the “token motor” and the “digit sequencing” tasks) and on all the six dimensions of the Cambridge Gambling Task, except for “Deliberation time”, in which forensic scored higher than non-forensic patients. “Deliberation time” was also positively, although weakly correlated with “poor impulse control”.

Identifying those facets of impaired decision-making mostly predicting offenders' behaviour among individuals with mental disorder might inform risk assessment and be targeted in treatment and rehabilitation protocols.

The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

The desirability bias (or wishful thinking effect) refers to when a person's desire regarding an event's occurrence has an unwarranted, optimistic influence on expectations about that event. Past experimental tests of this effect have been dominated by paradigms in which uncertainty about the target event is purely stochastic-i.e., involving only aleatory uncertainty. In six studies, we detected desirability biases using two new paradigms in which people made predictions about events for which their uncertainty was both aleatory and epistemic. We tested and meta-analyzed the impact of two potential moderators: the strength of evidence and the level of stochasticity. In support of the first moderator hypothesis, desirability biases were larger when people were making predictions about events for which the evidence for the possible outcomes was of similar strength (vs. not of similar strength). Regarding the second moderator hypothesis, the overall results did not support the notion that the desirability bias would be larger when the target event was higher vs. lower in stochasticity, although there was some significant evidence for moderation in one of the two paradigms. The findings broaden the generalizability of the desirability bias in predictions, yet they also reveal boundaries to an account of how stochasticity might provide affordances for optimistically biased predictions.

Factors affecting expert performance in bid evaluation: An integrated approach

Experts play a crucial role in underpinning decision-making in most management situations. While recent studies have disclosed the impacts of individuals’ inherent cognition and the external environment on expert performance, these two-dimensional mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this study, we identified 14 factors that influence expert performance in a bid evaluation and applied cross-impact matrix multiplication to examine the interdependence of the factors. The results indicate that the two dimension-related factors affect each other within a person–environment system, and a poor situation perception gives rise to the deviation of expert performance. Expert performance can be improved if external supervision and expertise are strengthened through deliberate practices. The study proposes a new expert performance research tool, elucidates its mechanism in bid evaluation from a cognitive psychology perspective, and provides guidelines for its improvement in workplace contexts.

Framing effects in value-directed remembering

Changing how an issue is framed can influence both decision-making and metacognition, but framing a memory task in terms of gains and losses could also impact how learners prioritize information according to its value or importance. We investigated how framing task instructions and feedback in terms of gains and losses influences learners’ ability to selectively remember valuable information at the expense of low-value information. Specifically, we presented learners with to-be-remembered words paired with point values and either told participants how many points they scored (the sum of the values of recalled words) or lost (the sum of the values of not-recalled words) on each list, with participants’ goal being to maximize their scores or minimize their losses, respectively. Overall, participants were more selective for high-value words when their goals were framed in terms of point gains compared with when their goals were framed in terms of losses, and learners’ metacognitive predictions of performance (JOLs) generally mapped onto this trend. Thus, framing in terms of losses for forgetting can reduce memory selectivity, perhaps because even small losses are salient, indicating that framing effects are not limited to decision-making but can influence memory and metacognitive processes as well.

Differences in comprehending and acting on pandemic health risk information: a qualitative study using mental models

Background

A worldwide pandemic of a new and unknown virus is characterised by scientific uncertainty. However, despite this uncertainty, health authorities must still communicate complex health risk information to the public. The mental models approach to risk communication describes how people perceive and make decisions about complex risks, with the aim of identifying decision-relevant information that can be incorporated into risk communication interventions. This study explored how people use mental models to make sense of scientific information and apply it to their lives and behaviour in the context of COVID-19.

Methods

This qualitative study enrolled 15 male and female participants of different ages, with different levels of education and occupational backgrounds and from different geographical regions of Norway. The participants were interviewed individually, and the interview data were subjected to thematic analysis. The interview data were compared to a expert model of COVID-19 health risk communication based on online information from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Materials in the interview data not represented by expert model codes were coded inductively. The participants’ perceptions of and behaviours related to health risk information were analysed across three themes: virus transmission, risk mitigation and consequences of COVID-19.

Results

The results indicate that people placed different meanings on the medical and scientific words used by experts to explain the pandemic (e.g., virus transmission and the reproduction number). While some people wanted to understand why certain behaviour and activities were considered high risk, others preferred simple, clear messages explaining what to do and how to protect themselves. Similarly, information about health consequences produced panic in some interviewees and awareness in others.

Conclusion

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to public health risk communication. Empowering people with decision-relevant information necessitates targeted and balanced risk communication.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13853-y.

Emotion and International Business: Theorising Fear of Failure in the Internationalisation

The road to internationalisation is paved with risk, uncertainty, the possibility of failure, and the Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) phenomenon. However, the process of internationalisation (IP) theory treats an individual decision-maker as a "black box." Emotions are largely ignored by international business (IB) researchers. This study offers conceptual thoughts on the role of fear of failure in the process of internationalisation. It argues that managers experience this emotion in making internationalisation decisions for a firm, which is an area of study that requires further understanding. Following the content analysis method in the literature review and a theory-based adaptation approach to complete the conceptualisation, this manuscript joins the scholarly conversations on "connecting the IP model to people" and "emotion and internationalisation." Focussing on fear of failure as a new perspective, this manuscript contributes to IB literature by suggesting new avenues in understanding decision-making about international activities by embracing psychological insights. It also contributes to IB practitioners by offering implications for understanding one's emotional state and its effect on decision-making about internationalising ventures.

Psychic Income Associated With Shanghai Tennis Masters and Residents’ Attitude

Using Shanghai Tennis Masters as an example, this study seeks to explore the psychic income associated with major sports events hosting and whether the psychic income would predict the attitudes of local residents toward events hosting. In addition, the moderating effect of sport involvement on the relationship between psychic income and attitude is also tested. In this study, a questionnaire survey is adopted. The structured questionnaire was developed based on 4 parts, including the demographics of the residents, involvement in the sport event, psychic income from the sport event, and their attitudes toward the sports event, there were 47 items in total. Data were collected from the local residents of Shanghai (including 16 districts or counties), as a result, 1,302 valid questionnaires were collected. A series of statistical analyses were conducted by using SPSS25.0 and AMOS 24.0 to examine the reliability and validity of the scales and to test the hypotheses. The results showed that the event has brought a significant level of psychic income to the local community, and the perceived psychic income would predict the attitudes of the residents toward the event hosting. The moderating effect of sports involvement on the relationship between psychic income and attitude is also confirmed.

A Influência de 25 Sessões de Treino na Capacidade de Tomada de Decisão de Jogadores de Futebol Sub-12

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar a influência de 25 sessões de treino na capacidade de tomada de decisão de jogadores de futebol sub-12. A amostra contou com 25 jogadores de futebol sub-12 de um clube de primeira divisão do Brasil. Avaliou-se a tomada de decisão através da plataforma online TacticUP®. As 25 sessões de treino foram organizadas baseadas nos princípios táticos fundamentais do futebol. Verificou-se correlação positiva (r=0,413, p=0,040) entre a variação do desempenho da tomada de decisão e o tempo de treino para os princípios ofensivos fora do centro de jogo. Conclui-se que o treino melhorou a capacidade de tomada de decisão de jogadores de futebol sub-12, para os princípios de espaço sem bola, mobilidade e unidade ofensiva.

A Critical Reflection on Visualization Research: Where Do Decision Making Tasks Hide?

It has been widely suggested that a key goal of visualization systems is to assist decision making, but is this true? We conduct a critical investigation on whether the activity of decision making is indeed central to the visualization domain. By approaching decision making as a user task, we explore the degree to which decision tasks are evident in visualization research and user studies. Our analysis suggests that decision tasks are not commonly found in current visualization task taxonomies and that the visualization field has yet to leverage guidance from decision theory domains on how to study such tasks. We further found that the majority of visualizations addressing decision making were not evaluated based on their ability to assist decision tasks. Finally, to help expand the impact of visual analytics in organizational as well as casual decision making activities, we initiate a research agenda on how decision making assistance could be elevated throughout visualization research.

The Influence of 25 Training Sessions on the Decision-Making Skill of U-12 Soccer Players

Abstract The aim of this study was to verify the influence of 25 training sessions on the decision-making skill of U-12 soccer players. The sample was comprised of 25 U-12 soccer players from a first division Brazilian club. Decision making was assessed through the TacticUP® online platform. The 25 training sessions were organized based on the core tactical principles of soccer. There was a positive correlation (r=.413, p=.040) between the performance variation of decision-making and the training time for the offensive principles outside the center of play. It was concluded that training improved the decision-making skill of U-12 soccer players with respect to the tactical principles of width and length without the ball, mobility, and offensive unity.

Learning and Dynamic Decision Making

Humans make decisions in dynamic environments (increasingly complex, highly uncertain, and changing situations) by searching for potential alternatives sequentially over time, to determine the best option at a precise moment. Surprisingly, the field of behavioral decision making has little to offer in terms of theoretical principles and practical guidelines on how people make decisions in dynamic situations. My research program aims to fill in this gap by developing theoretical understandings of decision processes as well as practical demonstrations of how these theoretical developments can improve human dynamic decision making. Throughout my research career, I have helped create, test, and improve a general theory of dynamic decision making, instance-based learning theory, IBLT. The methods I have used to contribute to IBLT are (1) laboratory experiments that rely on dynamic games in which humans make choices over time and space, individually and in teams, and from which we extrapolate robust phenomena and behavioral insights; and (2) computational, actionable cognitive models, which specify the decision-making process and the cognitive mechanisms involved into a computational algorithm. The combination of these methods spawned novel applications in areas such as cybersecurity, phishing, climate change, and human-machine interactions. In this paper, I will take you through my own intellectual exploratory experience of computational modeling of human decision processes, and how the integration of experimental work and cognitive modeling helped in discovering and uncovering the field of dynamic decision making.

Establishing the laws of preferential choice behavior

Mathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studying choice behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposed over the long interdisciplinary history of decision making research. The existence of so many models has led to theoretical fragmentation and redundancy, obscuring key insights into choice behavior, and preventing consensus about the essential properties of preferential choice. We provide a synthesis of formal models of risky, multiattribute, and intertemporal choice, three important domains in decision making. We identify recurring insights discovered by scholars of different generations and different disciplines across these three domains, and use these insights to classify over 150 existing models as involving various combinations of eight key mathematical and computational properties. These properties capture the main avenues of theoretical development in decision making research and can be used to understand the similarities and differences between decision models, aiding both theoretical analyses and empirical tests.

Effects of Training Programs on Decision-Making in Youth Team Sports Players: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The use of dedicated training programs for improving decision-making (DM) in team sports players has grown in the last several years. Approaches such as imagery training, video-based training, or game-based drills are some of the interventions used in youth players in order to improve DM. However, no systematic reviews or meta-analyses have been conducted to summarize the main evidence regarding the effects of these programs on the players and identify the magnitude of the effects compared to control groups.

Objective

This systematic review (with meta-analysis) was conducted to assess the effects of training programs on the DM of youth team sports players.

Data Sources

The data sources utilized were PubMed, PsycINFO, Scopus, SPORTDiscus, and Web of Science.

Study eligibility criteria

The criteria included the following: (i) youth (≤ 18 years old) team sports players with no restriction on sex or competitive level; (ii) players subjected to training programs to develop DM; (iii) control groups; (iv) pre–post outcomes related to tactical behavior, technical execution, reaction, and decision time; and (v) controlled trials.

Results

The database search initially identified 2497 titles. From these, six articles were eligible for the systematic review and meta-analysis. The results showed a significant beneficial effect of DM interventions on tactical behavior (ES = 1.12; p = 0.035; I² = 80.0%; Egger’s test p = 0.066), whereas no significant effect of DM interventions on technical execution was found (ES = 0.74; p = 0.180; I² = 69.1%; Egger’s test p = 0.873).

Conclusion

The DM interventions were significantly effective in improving tactical behavior in youth team sports players independently from the number of sessions to which players were exposed. In addition, DM interventions were significantly effective in improving technical execution. However, the results should be carefully interpreted due to the heterogeneity of the articles’ overall methodological quality. Future DM interventions should consider using combined approaches that allow players to develop both tactical behavior and technical execution.

How Informational Constraints for Decision-Making on Passing, Dribbling and Shooting Change With the Manipulation of Small-Sided Games Changes in Futsal

In this study, we explored how manipulating floaters' positions in small-sided futsal games (SSGs) promote changes in the informational constraints that support decision-making (DM) for passing, dribbling and shooting tactics. We made changes in four experimental 3 vs 3 small-sided game conditions with 30 male futsal players (U19 age category): (a) Floaters Off (FO), (b) Final Line Floaters (FLF), (c) Lateral Floaters own field sideline (LFofsl) and (d) Lateral Floaters full field sideline (LFffsl). We assessed players' activity with WIMU PRO™ software during the SSGs, using the Game Performance Evaluation Tool (GPET) to analyze a total of 1,635 decisions. DM for dribbling was generally based on the interpersonal distance between the ball carrier and direct opponent, considering the defensive team length and the offensive team area. Shooting decisions were constrained, by certain attacking-defending teams' spatial-temporal relations with regard to playing space and team balance as affected by manipulating floaters' positions. The coaches' decisions to change the floaters' positions during SSGs may change informational variables sustaining the dribbling decision, but no changes in SSG variables affected passing DM.

How leaders are persuaded: An elaboration likelihood model of voice endorsement

Organizations need both employee voice and managerial endorsement to ensure high-quality decision-making and achieve organizational effectiveness. However, a preponderance of voice research focuses on employee voice with little attention paid to voice endorsement. Building on the social persuasion theory of the elaboration likelihood model, we systematically examine the sender and receiver determinants of voice endorsement and how the interplay of those determinants affects voice endorsement. By empirically analyzing 168 paired samples, we find that issue-relevant information, i.e., voicer credibility, has a positive effect on voice endorsement and matters most when leaders have high felt obligation. The results also show that the peripheral cue used in the study, i.e., positive mood, has a positive effect on voice endorsement and matters most when leaders have low felt obligation or low cognitive flexibility. We discuss the contributions of these findings and highlight limitations and directions for future research.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heavy Metals in Arid Soils at the Catchment Scale Using Digital Soil Assessment and a Random Forest Model

Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of absorbable heavy metals in soil is needed to identify the potential contaminant sources and develop appropriate management plans to control these hazardous pollutants. Therefore, our aim was to develop a model to predict soil adsorbable heavy metals in arid regions of Iran from 1986 to 2016. Soil adsorbable heavy metals were measured in 201 samples from locations selected using the Latin hypercube sampling method in 2016. A random forest (RF) model was used to determine the relationship between a suite of geospatial predictors derived from remote sensing and digital elevation model data with georeferenced measurements of soil absorbable heavy metals. The trained RF model from 2016 was used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of soil absorbable heavy metals at three historical timesteps (1986, 1999, and 2010). Results indicated that the RF model was effective at predicting the distribution of heavy metals with coefficients of determination of 0.53, 0.59, 0.41, 0.45, and 0.60 for Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn, respectively. The predicted maps showed high spatio-temporal variability; for example, there were substantial increases in Pb (the 1.5–2 mg/kg−1 class) where its distribution increased by ~25% from 1988 to 2016—similar trends were observed for the other heavy metals. This study provides insights into the spatio-temporal trends and the potential causes of soil heavy metal contamination to facilitate appropriate planning and management strategies to prevent, control, and reduce the impact of heavy metal contamination in soils.

Theory Integration for Lifestyle Behavior Change in the Digital Age: An Adaptive Decision-Making Framework

Despite the growing popularity of digital health interventions, limitations of traditional behavior change theories and a lack of theory integration hinder theory-driven behavior change applications. In this paper, we aim to review theories relevant to lifestyle behavior change from the broader psychology literature and then integrate these theories into a new theoretical framework called adaptive decision-making to address two specific problems. First, our framework represents lifestyle behaviors at two levels-one of individual daily decisions (action level) and one of larger behavioral episodes (reflection level)-to more closely match the temporal characteristics of lifestyle behaviors and their associated digital data. Second, the framework connects decision-making theories and learning theories to explain how behaviors and cognitive constructs dynamically influence each other, making it a suitable scaffold for building computational models. We map common digital intervention techniques onto the behavioral and cognitive processes in the framework and discuss possible contributions of the framework to both theory development and digital intervention design.

Assessment of judgment ability in a Brazilian sample of patients with mild cognitive impairment and dementia

Judgment is the ability to make sound decisions after consideration of relevant information, possible solutions, likely outcomes, and contextual factors. Loss of judgment is common in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The Test of Practical Judgment (TOP-J) evaluates practical judgment in adults and the elderly, with 15- and 9-item versions that require individuals to listen to scenarios about everyday problems and report their solutions.

On salesperson judgment and decision making

Prior research on salesperson judgment and decision making (JDM) has been fragmented. After identifying how salespeople uniquely differ from other decision makers and unpacking how various personal selling issues can benefit from research in the JDM domain, the authors provide a framework to guide future research on salesperson JDM. The framework includes a research idea generation template to facilitate the identification of theoretically and substantively important research questions about salesperson JDM.

Effect of Trust between the Time Pressure and Complexity in Judging and Decision-Making in Auditing

ABSTRACT Objective: the study aimed to assess the moderating effect of confidence in the joint influence of time pressure and complexity in judgment and decision-making (JDM) in auditing. The behavioral decision theory (BDT) was used from the perspective of the anchoring heuristic. Methods: as a method, the 2x2x2 experiment was used with a final sample of 126 independent auditors. For analysis, the t-test and multiple linear regressions were used. Results: the findings allow us to infer that factors such as trust, time pressure, and complexity, individually and jointly, influence JDM. The study showed that trust moderates the joint influence of time pressure and complexity on JDM. Time pressure and task complexity negatively influence JDM, but when including trust as a moderating factor, the effect of time pressure and complexity is mitigated, reducing the auditor’s difficulties and uncertainties in JDM. Conclusion: the study contributes to BDT, moving academic research toward understanding the interrelationships between personal, environmental, and task factors. It also contributes by presenting evidence that there is a need for considering and observing the effects generated by the factors altogether, in order to contribute to improving the quality of the audit.

Efeito da Confiança entre a Pressão de Tempo e Complexidade no Julgamento e Tomada de Decisão em Auditoria

ABSTRACT Objective: the study aimed to assess the moderating effect of confidence in the joint influence of time pressure and complexity in judgment and decision-making (JDM) in auditing. The behavioral decision theory (BDT) was used from the perspective of the anchoring heuristic. Methods: as a method, the 2x2x2 experiment was used with a final sample of 126 independent auditors. For analysis, the t-test and multiple linear regressions were used. Results: the findings allow us to infer that factors such as trust, time pressure, and complexity, individually and jointly, influence JDM. The study showed that trust moderates the joint influence of time pressure and complexity on JDM. Time pressure and task complexity negatively influence JDM, but when including trust as a moderating factor, the effect of time pressure and complexity is mitigated, reducing the auditor’s difficulties and uncertainties in JDM. Conclusion: the study contributes to BDT, moving academic research toward understanding the interrelationships between personal, environmental, and task factors. It also contributes by presenting evidence that there is a need for considering and observing the effects generated by the factors altogether, in order to contribute to improving the quality of the audit.

Surprisingly stable: an experiment on willingness to bear uncertainty in individuals with and without entrepreneurial intentions

Purpose

Entrepreneurs are often considered to be more willing to bear and manage uncertainty than non-entrepreneurs. However, the available empirical evidence regarding this topic is limited and mixed. By adopting an experimental design, the paper’s purpose is to shed light on a causal mechanism behind decision making under uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper outlines the performance of a quasi-laboratory experiment that investigates whether a lack of predictive information affects individuals with entrepreneurial intentions in their likelihood to choose uncertainty vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, it is argued that individuals with entrepreneurial intentions are less sensitive than individuals without entrepreneurial intentions due to a framing effect that occurs when information about probabilities is manipulated. In particular, it is argued that individuals with entrepreneurial intentions are more likely than their comparable counterparts to choose consistently among monetary opportunities that share everything in common but information about probabilities of success.

Findings

This study finds support for the argument, as individuals with entrepreneurial intentions have preferences pertaining to uncertainty that are more stable compared to those of individuals without such intentions. The results hold after controlling for a number of alternative explanations, including status quo bias, prior gain effect and degree of risk effect.

Originality/value

The paper tackles a fundamental issue in entrepreneurship—namely behavior under uncertainty—by adopting a novel approach. In particular, an experimental design is used to test for causality between availability of information and choices involving monetary rewards. Results have implications for the understanding of factors that guide entrepreneurial choices under uncertainty and, ultimately, entrepreneurial action.

Decision-Making in Youth Team-Sports Players: A Systematic Review

The aim of this systematic review conducted in the topic of youth team-sports players was three-fold: (i) Analyze the variations of decision-making processes between low- and high-level youth players; (ii) analyze the variations of decision-making processes between different age groups; and (iii) analyze the effects of decision-making training-based programs on youth players. Following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, this systematic review searched for studies on PubMed, ScienceDirect, Academic Search Complete, SPORTDiscus, and Taylor & Francis Online. The search returned 6215 papers. After screening the records against set criteria, 26 articles were fully reviewed. From the included studies, 9 were focused on comparing the decision-making process between low- and high-level players, 6 compared the decisions made by players from different age categories, and 11 analyzed the effects of decision-making-based training programs on youth players. Comparisons between high- and low-level players suggested that high-level and most talented players present a greater accuracy in the cognitive and executive answers to the game as well as being more adjustable to more complex situations. Considering the comparisons between age groups, a tendency of older players to execute more accurate decisions in the game and to have better tactical knowledge and behavior was observed. Finally, the effects of decision-making training programs suggest a beneficial effect employing practical scenarios (mainly based on small-sided and conditioned games), primarily improving passing decisions and execution. However, the benefits of interventions using videos are not clear.

Self-affirmation enhances the processing of uncertainty: An event-related potential study

We proposed that self-affirmation can endow people with more cognitive resource to cope with uncertainty. We tested this possibility with an event-related potential (ERP) study by examining how self-affirmation influences ambiguous feedback processing in a simple gambling task, which was used to investigate risk decision-making. We assigned 48 participants randomly to the affirmation and non-affirmation (i.e., control) groups. All participants accepted the manipulation first and then completed the gambling task with an electroencephalogram (EEG) recording, in which participants might receive a positive (winning), negative (losing), or ambiguous (unknown valence) outcome after they made a choice. We considered both the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and P3 components elicited by the outcome feedback, which reflected the amount of cognitive resources being invested in the early and late stages of the outcome feedback processing, respectively. ERP results showed that ambiguous feedback elicited a larger FRN among affirmed participants than unaffirmed participants but exerted no influence on the P3. This finding suggests that self-affirmation may help coping with uncertainty by enhancing the early processing of uncertainty.

Resynthesizing behavior through phylogenetic refinement

This article proposes that biologically plausible theories of behavior can be constructed by following a method of "phylogenetic refinement," whereby they are progressively elaborated from simple to complex according to phylogenetic data on the sequence of changes that occurred over the course of evolution. It is argued that sufficient data exist to make this approach possible, and that the result can more effectively delineate the true biological categories of neurophysiological mechanisms than do approaches based on definitions of putative functions inherited from psychological traditions. As an example, the approach is used to sketch a theoretical framework of how basic feedback control of interaction with the world was elaborated during vertebrate evolution, to give rise to the functional architecture of the mammalian brain. The results provide a conceptual taxonomy of mechanisms that naturally map to neurophysiological and neuroanatomical data and that offer a context for defining putative functions that, it is argued, are better grounded in biology than are some of the traditional concepts of cognitive science.

Judgment Capacity, Fear of Falling, and the Risk of Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The Progetto Veneto Anziani Longitudinal Study

Little is known of the factors that transform fear of falling (FOF) from a normal adaptive to a maladaptive response that could alter its impact on fall risk. Focusing on judgment capacity, we investigated whether it is associated with FOF and FOF-related activity restriction (AR), and whether it modifies the influence of FOF on fall risk. Data came from 2625 community-dwelling older adults enrolled in the Progetto Veneto Anziani. Baseline FOF and AR were assessed through personal interviews, and judgment capacity-high, moderate, or poor-through situational tests. At follow-up after 4.4 years, self-reported falls during the previous year were recorded. The associations between judgment and FOF/AR, and between FOF and the risk of at least one fall or recurrent falls (two or more falls), stratified by judgment capacity, were evaluated using multinomial logistic regressions. Compared with high-judgment participants, lower judgment participants were 20% more likely to report FOF; moderate judgment participants were 54% more likely and poor judgment participants twice as likely to report AR. After adjusting for potential confounders, including physical activity and physical performance, FOF increased the reporting of at least one fall only in the poor judgment group. The association between FOF and recurrent falls was stronger in individuals with poor (odds ratio [OR] = 3.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.10-6.36) than with moderate (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 2.22-3.55) or high (OR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.48-1.83) judgment. Poor judgment capacity increases the probability of FOF and AR in older adults, and may exacerbate the effect of FOF in increasing fall risk.

Women Founders in the Technology Industry: The Startup-Relatedness of the Decision to Become a Mother

This paper explores the decision to become a mother among women in the technology industry, particularly if there is an “optimal context” regarding startup development (business stage and size). Eighteen interviews were conducted with an international sample of women founders and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Findings suggest two sources of “mumpreneurs” in technology ventures: (1) women who created a startup while young and childless, postponing maternity until the business is “stable”; and (2) mothers who created a technology venture as a strategy to gain higher levels of flexibility and autonomy than they experienced in the corporate world. The first group is highly work-role salient, while the second is highly family-role salient. The results of this work contribute to theory development by revealing the “startup-relatedness” of family decisions by women founders in the technology industry. I offer recommendations of how accelerators can improve mentorship for women in high-growth technology ventures and unleash women’s potential.

Narcissism and risky decisions: a neurophysiological approach

Narcissists are prone to risky decision-making, but why? This study tested—via behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) measures—two accounts: deficiencies in error monitoring and deficiencies in action updating. High and low narcissists were engaged in a monetary gambling task by choosing between a high-risk and a low-risk option while the electroencephalogram (EEG) was being recorded. Two ERP components relevant to outcome evaluation—feedback-related negativity (FRN) and P3—were analyzed, with the FRN serving as an index of error monitoring and the P3 as an index of action updating. Generally, high and low narcissists differed in the high-risk condition but not in the low-risk condition. At the behavioral level, high (vs low) narcissists made riskier decisions following high-risk decision outcomes, which was in line with past findings; at the neurophysiological level, while no FRN difference emerged between high and low narcissists, the outcome valence effect (positive vs negative) on the P3 was stronger among low narcissists than high narcissists following high-risk decision outcomes. One possible interpretation of the results is that narcissism is associated with reduced action updating. The findings contribute to the understanding of narcissistic decision-making and self-regulation.

Ordering a Normal Diet at the End of Surgery-Justified or Overhasty?

Early re-alimentation is advocated by enhanced recovery pathways (ERP). This study aimed to assess compliance to ERP-set early re-alimentation policy and to compare outcomes of early fed patients and patients in whom early feeding was withhold due to the independent decision making of the surgeon. For this purpose, demographic, surgical and outcome data of all consecutive elective colorectal surgical procedures (2011–2016) were retrieved from a prospectively maintained institutional ERP database. The primary endpoint was postoperative ileus (POI). Surgical 30-day outcome and length of stay were compared between patients undergoing the pathway-intended early re-alimentation pattern and patients in whom early re-alimentation was not compliant. Out of the 7103 patients included, 1241 (17.4%) were not compliant with ERP re-alimentation. Patients with delayed re-alimentation presented with more postoperative complications (37 vs. 21%, p < 0.001) and a prolonged length of hospital stay (8 ± 7 vs. 5 ± 4 days, p < 0.001). While male gender (odds ratio (OR) 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04–1.32), fluid overload (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.16–1.65) and high American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.27–1.8) were independent risk factors for POI, laparoscopy (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.38–0.68) and ERP compliant diet (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.36–0.6) were both protective. Hence, this study provides further evidence of the beneficial effect of early oral feeding after colorectal surgery.

Hemispheric mPFC asymmetry in decision making under ambiguity and risk: An fNIRS study

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is a commonly used task for testing decision-making under ambiguity (the early stage) and risk (the late stage). However, differences between the temporal dynamic signals underlying these two types of decision-making as well as the hemispheric specificity of decision making during the IGT remain unknown. The present study sought to address this gap by focusing on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), which plays an important role in decision-making across life domains. We used functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) with high spatial and temporal resolution and measured oxy-hemoglobin concentration within the mPFC in 25 healthy participants who performed the IGT. Results showed that there are different activations of the right and left hemispheres of the mPFC during the different stages of IGT and types of decisions. This implies that the left and right mPFC can have different patterns of involvement in decision making, at least in IGT decisions, including making good (low risk) and bad (high risk) choices, under ambiguity and under risk conditions.

Tactical Knowledge, Decision-Making, and Brain Activation Among Volleyball Coaches of Varied Experience

This study compared decision-making (DM) of experienced and novice volleyball coaches while measuring blood flow brain activation with functional near-infrared spectroscopy. We sampled 34 coaches (mean [ M] age of 32.5, standard deviation [ SD] = 9.4 years) divided into two experience groups: (a) novice ( M = 2.8, SD = 1.9 years) and (b) experienced (M = 19, SD = 7.2 years). We evaluated coaches' DM through their responses to video-based scenarios of attacks performed in the extremities of the net within the Declarative Tactical Knowledge Test in Volleyball. We found no significant DM differences between the two groups of coaches ( p = .063), though novice (vs. experienced) coaches showed greater blood flow of the prefrontal cortex when visualizing the game situations. While experienced coaches may have better prefrontal neural efficiency during DM in these situations, further research is needed to evaluate other cerebral areas; since blood flow is an indirect measure of neural efficiency, and activity in remaining cortical components was unknown in this study.

Validation of Adult Decision-Making Competence in Chinese college students

The present study was conducted to validate the Chinese version of the Adult Decision-Making Competence scale. 364 college students were recruited from four universities in China. The results indicate the Chinese Adult Decision-Making Competence subscales have good internal consistency and the two-factor structure in the study of Bruine de Bruin et al. (2007) was confirmed. Gender differences were found in Resistance to Sunk Cost. Differences of Applying Decision Rules and Consistency in Risk Perception were found between participants with different education background. Overall, the Chinese Adult Decision-Making Competence scale is validated in China.