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Sun R, Xu X, Dong Y, Li J, Guan W, Huang Y, Li S, Wang Y, Li J. Global and regional trends in prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth: Age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2049. J Dent 2024; 147:105122. [PMID: 38871071 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdent.2024.105122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 06/06/2024] [Accepted: 06/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aims to update the relevant epidemiological information of untreated caries in permanent teeth. METHODS Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We described temporal trends in age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of untreated caries in permanent teeth by gender and region from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to analyze age, period and cohort effects on prevalence, and we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to make projections of prevalence between 2020 and 2049. RESULTS The global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth presented a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 (26593.58/105 vs. 25625.53/105), with females exceeding males annually. Negative correlation was observed between ASPR and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. APC analyses showed that net drift was -0.16 % globally and generally below 0 across all SDI regions. The overall global peak in prevalence occurred in the 20-24 years group (36319.99/105), and there was a decrease trend in the overall global period rate ratio (RR). Compared to younger birth cohorts, prior birth cohorts had higher prevalence risks globally and across all SDI regions. Significant upward trends was predicted in the global ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth for both genders from 2020 to 2049. CONCLUSIONS Age-period-cohort effects exerted a significant impact on the prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth during the study period. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE The ASPR of untreated caries in permanent teeth may increase in the next 30 years by projections. And the disease burden of untreated caries in permanent teeth may be affected by population ageing. It is essential to implement targeted prevention and control policies to disadvantaged groups and attempt to reduce caries inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rongyin Sun
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China; School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Xin Xu
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China; School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yanli Dong
- Weizi Street Health Center of Changyi, Weifang, 261300, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Jin Li
- Weifang People's Hospital, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261000, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Weizhen Guan
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yushan Huang
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Shunhang Li
- School of Stomatology, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China
| | - Yanxia Wang
- Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261031, Shandong Province, PR China.
| | - Jing Li
- School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, PR China.
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Zhang Y, Zhang XB, Ding YW, Kong Y, Zhu XF, Li PH, Tian Y, Zhang QW. Distinct time trends in colorectal cancer incidence in countries with SDI levels from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1370282. [PMID: 38841678 PMCID: PMC11150799 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1370282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2024] [Accepted: 05/06/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) plays a pivotal role in the global cancer epidemic. Our study reported the incidence trends in CRC and the associated effects of age, period, and birth cohort in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Methods The incidence data of CRC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We performed the age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change (net drift) in the incidence rate, the annual percentage change by age group (local drift), and the relative risk (period and cohort effects) of the period and cohort in CRC during 1990-2019. This approach allows examining and distinguishing age, period, and cohort effects in incidence and potentially distinguishing colorectal cancer gaps in prevention and screening. Results In 2019, the incidence of CRC was 2.17 (95% UI 2.00-2.34) million, of which China, the United States of America, and Japan had the highest incidence population, accounting for 45.9% of the global population. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 26.7 (95% UI 28.9-24.6) per 100,000 people, of which 30 countries had an incidence rate greater than 40.0 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2019, the middle SDI region had the largest increase in incidence rate, with a net drift of 2.33% (95% CI 2.2-2.46%, p < 0.001). Globally, the incidence population was concentrated in the age group of 50-69 years, and the age group of 30-34 years had the largest increase in incidence rate (local drift 1.19% (95% CI 1.01-1.37%)). At the same time, the sex and age distributions of CRC incidence had significant heterogeneity across regions and countries. In the past 30 years, the incidence rate in 31 countries has been well controlled (net drift <0), and most of them were concentrated in high-and high-middle-SDI regions, such as Australia, Czechia, and Belgium, and the relative risk of incidence generally improved over time and consecutive young birth cohorts. CRC incidence showed an unfavorable trend (net drift ≥1%) in 89 countries, of which 27 countries were more significant (net drift >2%), mostly concentrated in the middle SDI region, such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, and the risk of period and birth cohort was unfavorable. Conclusion Globally, the incidence of CRC has shown an overall upward trend over the past 30 years, with the exception of some countries with higher SDI values. Significant age-period-cohort differences were observed in the risk of incidence in CRC worldwide. Effective prevention and control policies need to take into account the age-period-cohort effect characteristics of different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Zhang
- Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xun-Bing Zhang
- Department of Digestive Endoscopy Center, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yu-Wei Ding
- Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Institute, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Intervention, Ministry of Education, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Yang Kong
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiao-Feng Zhu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Huzhou Central Hospital, Huzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Pu-Heng Li
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Tian
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Qing-Wei Zhang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, NHC Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
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Liu Z, Li Z, Xie J, Xia R, Li Y, Zhang F, Ouyang W, Wang S, Pan X. The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. QUALITY OF CARE & CLINICAL OUTCOMES 2024; 10:203-215. [PMID: 37852669 DOI: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcad063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 10/09/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
AIMS To increase the comprehensive understanding of trends in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region. METHODS AND RESULTS Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study for the years 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to investigate trends in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the periods with the most substantial changes. The results show that, the Western Pacific Region witnessed a substantial increase in CVD deaths attributable to low physical activity, accompanied by a rise in all-age CVD-related mortality. However, the age-standardized death rate was lower in the region than the global level, highlighting the importance of considering the age composition of CVD burden in the region. Countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI) levels exhibited lower mortality than those with lower SDI levels. The longitudinal analysis using the age-period-cohort model indicated an overall improvement in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the region, but with differences between sexes and CVD subtypes. Specific period in which CVD-related mortality decreased significantly was 2011-16, for the average annual percentage change for the period was -0.69%. CONCLUSION The study highlights the significance of addressing low physical activity as a modifiable risk factor for CVD burden in the Western Pacific Region. Further research is essential to understand the factors contributing to inter-country variations, sex disparities, and CVD subtypes distinctions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeye Liu
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ziping Li
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Xie
- Department of Pharmacy, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Ruibing Xia
- Department of Medicine, University Hospital Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Yakun Li
- Laboratory of Experimental Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Fengwen Zhang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Wenbin Ouyang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shouzheng Wang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiangbin Pan
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Regeneration Medicine, Beijing, China
- Key Laboratory of Innovative Cardiovascular Devices, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
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Qu C, Chen Y, Liu C, Hu Z, Zhang J, Yan L, Zhang H, Liu Y, Liu W, Cheng Q, Luo P, Liu Z. Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019. Neurology 2024; 102:e209299. [PMID: 38598742 PMCID: PMC11175652 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000209299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden. METHODS In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions. RESULTS The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention. DISCUSSION This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunrun Qu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yu Chen
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Chen Liu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Zhiwen Hu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Jingwei Zhang
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Luzhe Yan
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Hao Zhang
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yifan Liu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Wanyao Liu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Quan Cheng
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Peng Luo
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Zhixiong Liu
- From the Department of Neurosurgery (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disorders (C.Q., Y.C., J.Z., Q.C., Z.L.), Xiangya Hospital, and XiangYa School of Medicine (C.Q., Y.C., C.L., Z.H., L.Y., Y.L., W.L.), Central South University, Changsha, Hunan; Department of Neurosurgery (H.Z.), The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University; and Department of Oncology (P.L.), Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
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Lan QW, Chen HK, Huang ZM, Bao TY, Liang CJ, Yi RT, Huang YY, He YX, Huang XQ, Gu B, Guo XG, Zhang QW. Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for tuberculosis, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Heart Lung 2024; 65:19-30. [PMID: 38377628 DOI: 10.1016/j.hrtlng.2024.01.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2023] [Revised: 01/08/2024] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant global health concern, being the leading cause of mortality from a single infectious agent worldwide. The investigation of TB incidence and epidemiological trends is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies and identifying ongoing challenges. OBJECTIVES This study presents the trend in TB incidence across 204 countries and regions over a 30-year period. METHODS The study utilises data sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The age cohort model and gender subgroup analysis were employed to estimate the net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (age annual percentage change), longitudinal age curve (expected age ratio), and cycle and cohort effect (relative risk of cycle and birth cohort) of TB incidence from 1990 to 2019. This approach facilitates the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in TB incidence trends, potentially identifying disparities in TB prevention across different countries. RESULTS Over the past three decades, a general downward trend in TB incidence has been observed in most countries. However, in 15 of the 204 countries, the overall incidence rate is still on the rise (net drift ≥0.0 %) or stagnant decline (≥-0.5 %). From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of tuberculosis mortality ranged from -2.2 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): -2.33, -2.05] in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -1.7 % [95 % CI: -1.81, -1.62] in low SDI countries. In some below-average SDI countries,men in the birth cohort are at a disadvantage and at risk of deterioration, necessitating comprehensive TB prevention and treatment. CONCLUSIONS While the global incidence of TB has declined, adverse period and cohort effects have been identified in numerous countries, raising questions about the adequacy of TB healthcare provision across all age groups. Furthermore, this study reveals gender disparities in TB incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi-Wen Lan
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Medical Imageology, The Second Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Hao-Kai Chen
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Clinical Medicine, The Third Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Ze-Min Huang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Clinical Medicine, The Third Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Ting-Yu Bao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Clinical Medicine, The Third Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Chuang-Jia Liang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Clinical Medicine, The Third Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Rui-Ting Yi
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The Third Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Yuan-Yi Huang
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The First Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Ying-Xin He
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, KingMed School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University,Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Xu-Qi Huang
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The Sixth Clinical School of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China
| | - Bing Gu
- Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, PR China.
| | - Xu-Guang Guo
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, PR China; Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Diseases; Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Obstetrics and Gynecology; The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510150, China; Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Clinical Rapid Diagnosis and Early Warning of Infectious Dis-eases, King Med School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510000, China.
| | - Qing-Wei Zhang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, NHC Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases (Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine), Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, PR China.
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Zou Y, Yue M, Ye X, Wang Y, Ma X, Zhang A, Xia X, Chen H, Yu R, Yang S, Huang P. Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study. J Glob Health 2024; 14:04077. [PMID: 38638097 PMCID: PMC11026988 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The current study uniquely focuses on the global incidence and temporal trends of acute hepatitis C (AHC) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) from 1990-2019. The risk of vertical transmission and adverse perinatal outcomes associated with HCV infection underscores the importance of prioritising these women in HCV prevention efforts. Methods Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and assessed temporal trends via the average annual percent change from joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort model was employed to understand further the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Results Over the 30 years, global incidences of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis in reproductive-age women increased by 46.45 and 72.74%, respectively. The ASIR of AHC was highest in low sociodemographic index regions but showed a declining trend. Conversely, the ASIR of HCV-related cirrhosis displayed unfavourable trends in low, low-middle, and high sociodemographic index regions. Special attention is necessary for sub-Saharan Africa, high-income North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia due to their high incidence rates or increasing trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis. Notably, the age-period-cohort model suggests a recent resurgence in AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis risk. Conclusions The current study is the first to thoroughly evaluate the trends of AHC and HCV-related cirrhosis among reproductive-age women, shedding light on previously unexplored aspects of HCV epidemiology. Our findings identify critical areas where health care systems must adapt to the changing dynamics of HCV infection. The detailed stratification by region and nation further enables the development of localised prevention and treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanzheng Zou
- Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Ming Yue
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiangyu Ye
- Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Yifan Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Xinyan Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Amei Zhang
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China
| | - Xueshan Xia
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, China
- Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Hongbo Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Rongbin Yu
- Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Sheng Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Peng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, National Vaccine Innovation Platform, Centre for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
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Teng A, Stanley J, Jackson C, Koea J, Lao C, Lawrenson R, Meredith I, Sika-Paotonu D, Gurney J. The growing cancer burden: Age-period-cohort projections in Aotearoa New Zealand 2020-2044. Cancer Epidemiol 2024; 89:102535. [PMID: 38280359 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2023] [Revised: 01/16/2024] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 01/29/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand. METHODS Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity. RESULTS Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries. CONCLUSIONS Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Teng
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand.
| | - James Stanley
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Christopher Jackson
- Department of Medicine (Dunedin), University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan Koea
- General Surgery, Waitakere Hospital, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand; Medical Surgery, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Chunhuan Lao
- Medical Research Centre, The University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Ross Lawrenson
- Medical Research Centre, The University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand; Commissioning, Te Whatu Ora, Hamilton, Waikato, New Zealand
| | - Ineke Meredith
- General Surgery, Wakefield Hospital, 30 Florence Street, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Dianne Sika-Paotonu
- Dean's Department UOW & Division of Health Sciences, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Jason Gurney
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, PO Box 7343, Wellington, New Zealand
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8
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Han Y, Li Y, Wang S, Chen J, Zhang J. Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019. Epidemiol Infect 2024; 152:e48. [PMID: 38468382 DOI: 10.1017/s095026882400044x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/13/2024] Open
Abstract
China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Han
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China
| | - Yuansheng Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China
| | - Shuyuan Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China
| | - Jialu Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China
| | - Junhui Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China
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9
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Ghulam E, Ramadan M. Age-period-cohort analysis of colorectal cancer mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019. Public Health 2024; 228:43-50. [PMID: 38266347 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.11.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Revised: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The current study aimed to describe and estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN This was an epidemiological study. METHODS Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Age-period-cohort modelling was used to compute the net drift, local drift, cross-sectional age curve, longitudinal age curve, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort of CRC mortality in Saudi Arabia. RESULTS In 2019, there were 1629 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1263 to 2045) CRC cancer deaths in Saudi Arabia, and the age-standardised mortality rate of CRC was 9.7 (95% UI: 7.8 to 11.6) per 100,000 population. For men, between 1990 and 2019, the total number of CRC deaths increased dramatically from 199 (95% UI: 130 to 286) in 2019 to 942 (95% UI: 725 to 1228). For the period effects, the relative risk (RR) of mortality rate for both sexes followed similar monotonic increase patterns throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS Results from this study highlight a concerning increase in CRC mortality rates in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2019, particularly among individuals aged 30-50 years. While mortality rates for men were higher at the start of the study period, more favourable trends for men were seen in the later years of the study period, indicating evolving gender disparities. Establishing evidence-based national screening guidelines and adopting multi-level diagnostics, risk assessment, and population-wide screening, especially for younger populations, is crucial.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Ghulam
- Basic Science Department, College of Science and Health Professions, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
| | - M Ramadan
- Population Health Research Section, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Saudi Arabia.
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10
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Rosenberg PS, Miranda-Filho A. Advances in statistical methods for cancer surveillance research: an age-period-cohort perspective. Front Oncol 2024; 13:1332429. [PMID: 38406174 PMCID: PMC10889111 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1332429] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/28/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Analysis of Lexis diagrams (population-based cancer incidence and mortality rates indexed by age group and calendar period) requires specialized statistical methods. However, existing methods have limitations that can now be overcome using new approaches. Methods We assembled a "toolbox" of novel methods to identify trends and patterns by age group, calendar period, and birth cohort. We evaluated operating characteristics across 152 cancer incidence Lexis diagrams compiled from United States (US) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program data for 21 leading cancers in men and women in four race and ethnicity groups (the "cancer incidence panel"). Results Nonparametric singular values adaptive kernel filtration (SIFT) decreased the estimated root mean squared error by 90% across the cancer incidence panel. A novel method for semi-parametric age-period-cohort analysis (SAGE) provided optimally smoothed estimates of age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions and stabilized estimates of lack-of-fit (LOF). SAGE identified statistically significant birth cohort effects across the entire cancer panel; LOF had little impact. As illustrated for colon cancer, newly developed methods for comparative age-period-cohort analysis can elucidate cancer heterogeneity that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to discern using standard methods. Conclusions Cancer surveillance researchers can now identify fine-scale temporal signals with unprecedented accuracy and elucidate cancer heterogeneity with unprecedented specificity. Birth cohort effects are ubiquitous modulators of cancer incidence in the US. The novel methods described here can advance cancer surveillance research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip S. Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Biostatistics Branch, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States
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11
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Zhao D, Lu J, Zeng W, Zhang C, You Y. Changing trends in disease burden of lung cancer in China from 1990-2019 and following 15-year prediction. Curr Probl Cancer 2024; 48:101036. [PMID: 37926577 DOI: 10.1016/j.currproblcancer.2023.101036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Revised: 09/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As lung cancer becomes a primary source of death in China, investigation on incidence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is of great significance to optimize prevention measures and allocation of healthcare resources. METHODS We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to evaluate the incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs of lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Analysis of lung cancer risk factor-related death rate and DALYs was performed. Age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated. The incidence trend of lung cancer from 2020 to 2034 was predicted by the Nordpred age-period-cohort (APC) model. RESULTS Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 30.2/100000 (95 % UI 26.2-34.3) in 1990 to 41.7/100000 (95 % UI 35.2-48.8) in 2019, and EAPC was 1.33 (95 % CI 1.16-1.49). From 1990 to 2019, men were noted for the highest incidence rate, death rate, and DALYs rate across three age groups (15-49 years, 50-69 years, and over 70). During this period, the ASIR of lung cancer in females was always lower than that in males. The predominant risk factors of lung cancer were smoking, air pollution, and diet, among which smoking was the most significant one. The analysis results showed that new cases and deaths may increase in the following 15 years since 2020 in the context of lung cancer. CONCLUSION Faced with the heavy burden of lung cancer, China must issue corresponding policies and roll out prevention avenues against smoking and air pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Di Zhao
- Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China; Hubei Clinical Medicine Research Center for individualized cancer diagnosis and therapy, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China
| | - Jinzhi Lu
- Hubei Clinical Medicine Research Center for individualized cancer diagnosis and therapy, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China
| | - Wen Zeng
- Laboratory Department of Hospital of Jingzhou Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China
| | - Cong Zhang
- Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China
| | - Yonghao You
- Department of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China; Hubei Clinical Medicine Research Center for individualized cancer diagnosis and therapy, Jingzhou, Hubei Province, 434000, China.
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12
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Shu T, Tang M, He B, Liu X, Han Y, Liu C, Jose PA, Wang H, Zhang QW, Zeng C. Assessing Global, Regional, and National Time Trends and Associated Risk Factors of the Mortality in Ischemic Heart Disease Through Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study: Population-Based Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e46821. [PMID: 38265846 PMCID: PMC10851120 DOI: 10.2196/46821] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 01/25/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death among noncommunicable diseases worldwide, but data on current epidemiological patterns and associated risk factors are lacking. OBJECTIVE This study assessed the global, regional, and national trends in IHD mortality and attributable risks since 1990. METHODS Mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. We used an age-period-cohort model to calculate longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), net drift (overall annual percentage change), and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) from 15 to >95 years of age and estimate cohort and period effects between 1990 and 2019. Deaths from IHD attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and theoretical minimum risk exposure level. RESULTS IHD is the leading cause of death in noncommunicable disease-related mortality (118.1/598.8, 19.7%). However, the age-standardized mortality rate for IHD decreased by 30.8% (95% CI -34.83% to -27.17%) over the past 30 years, and its net drift ranged from -2.89% (95% CI -3.07% to -2.71%) in high sociodemographic index (SDI) region to -0.24% (95% CI -0.32% to -0.16%) in low-middle-SDI region. The greatest decrease in IHD mortality occurred in the Republic of Korea (high SDI) with net drift -6.06% (95% CI -6.23% to -5.88%), followed by 5 high-SDI nations (Denmark, Norway, Estonia, the Netherlands, and Ireland) and 2 high-middle-SDI nations (Israel and Bahrain) with net drift less than -5.00%. Globally, age groups of >60 years continued to have the largest proportion of IHD-related mortality, with slightly higher mortality in male than female group. For period and birth cohort effects, the trend of rate ratios for IHD mortality declined across successive period groups from 2000 to 2004 and birth cohort groups from 1985 to 2000, with noticeable improvements in high-SDI regions. In low-SDI regions, IHD mortality significantly declined in female group but fluctuated in male group across successive periods; sex differences were greater in those born after 1945 in middle- and low-middle-SDI regions and after 1970 in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks were the leading cause of mortality from IHD worldwide in 2019. Moreover, smoking, particulate matter pollution, and dietary risks were also important risk factors, increasingly occurring at a younger age. Diets low in whole grains and legumes were prominent dietary risks in both male and female groups, and smoking and high-sodium diet mainly affect male group. CONCLUSIONS IHD, a major concern, needs focused health care attention, especially for older male individuals and those in low-SDI regions. Metabolic risks should be prioritized for prevention, and behavioral and environmental risks should attract more attention to decrease IHD mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingting Shu
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Ming Tang
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Bo He
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Xiaozhu Liu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Han
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Chang Liu
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Pedro A Jose
- Division of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, The George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Hongyong Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Qing-Wei Zhang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Key Laboratory of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ministry of Health, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, Shanghai, China
| | - Chunyu Zeng
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
- Key Laboratory of Geriatric Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Research, Ministry of Education of China, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Trauma, Burns and Combined Injury, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Cardiovascular Research Center of Chongqing College, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China
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Li XY, Hou MJ, Kong XM, Lv JJ, Yang CH, Li DT, Zhang RH. The congenital birth defects burden in children younger than 14 years of age, 1990 - 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study. J Glob Health 2024; 14:04012. [PMID: 38247557 PMCID: PMC10802974 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.14.04012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background This study aims to delineate the burden of congenital birth defects (CBDs) in children under 14 years of age from 1990 to 2019, using an age-period-cohort framework to analyse data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Methods Data on prevalence cases, age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs), death cases, and age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) of congenital birth defects (CBDs) from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from GBD 2019. Using this data set, we conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to examine patterns and trends in mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CBDs, while exploring correlations with age, time periods, and generational birth cohorts. Furthermore, to quantify the temporal trends, we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for these parameters. Results The global prevalence of CBDs decreased from 1404.22 to 1301.66 per 100 000 with an EAPC of -0.18% from 1990 to 2019. CBD mortality decreased by 42.52% between 1990 and 2019, with the global age-standardised death rate declining from 49.72 to 25.58 per 100 000. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 4529.16 to 2393.61 per 100 000. Prevalence declined most notably among older children. The risk of CBDs reached its lowest during adolescence (10-14 years) across all regions. The most recent period (2015-2019) showed a reduced risk of prevalence compared to 2000-2004. Earlier birth cohorts displayed declining tendencies followed by slight increases in risk. Conclusions This study demonstrates encouraging global reductions in the burden of CBDs among children over the past three decades. Prevalence, mortality, and DALYs attributable to CBDs have exhibited downward trajectories, although regional disparities remain. APC analysis provides valuable insights to inform prevention and management strategies for pediatric CBDs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin-yu Li
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Meng-jie Hou
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiang-meng Kong
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Jia-jie Lv
- Department of Vascular surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Cheng-hao Yang
- Department of Vascular surgery, Putuo People’s Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
| | - Da-tao Li
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Ru-hong Zhang
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
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Li H, Yang X, Zhang A, Liang G, Sun Y, Zhang J. Age-period-cohort analysis of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of esophageal cancer in global, regional and national regions from 1990 to 2019. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:212. [PMID: 38233775 PMCID: PMC10795420 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-17706-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 01/19/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In view of the high incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer, the latest statistical data on the disease burden of esophageal cancer can provide strategies for cancer screening, early detection and treatment, and help to rationally allocate health resources. This study provides an analysis of the global disease burden and risk factors of esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019. METHODS Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease, Injury and Risk Factor (GBD) data, we present the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of esophageal cancer in 21 regions and 204 countries and different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age, period, and cohort trend of esophageal cancer in different SDI regions. The estimated proportion of DALY attributable to each risk factor from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of esophageal cancer, the number of deaths and DALY increased by 67.07%, 55.97% and 42.13%, respectively, but age standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased by 19.28%, 25.32% and 88.22%, respectively. Overall, the results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence, mortality, and DALY rates in countries and regions with higher SDI levels showed a downward trend over time and with the passage of time. Conversely, there were no significant changes in incidence and mortality in countries and regions with low SDI levels. In the past 30 years, the incidence and death of esophageal cancer in the world has gradually changed to people over 80 years old, but the population aged 60-79 still accounts for the largest proportion. The global DALY in esophageal cancer is mainly attributable to smoking, followed by alcohol consumption and occupational exposure. CONCLUSIONS Although ASIR, ASMR and ASDR have decreased significantly, esophageal cancer is still the main factor causing the disease burden worldwide. Public health administrators in low SDI and low-middle SDI countries are high-risk areas for esophageal cancer, and preventive control measures should be implemented to raise awareness, screening, and treatment of esophageal cancer in these areas. Tobacco and alcohol control and reduction of occupational hazards are key steps in reducing the burden of esophageal cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiying Li
- Department of Pathology, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, 150 Haping Road, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xianzhi Yang
- Emergency Internal Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Aiqi Zhang
- Emergency Internal Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Guanying Liang
- Department of Pathology, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, 150 Haping Road, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Yue Sun
- Academic Department of Science and Technology, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
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Liu Z, Wei P, Jiang H, Zhang F, Ouyang W, Wang S, Fang F, Pan X. Alerting trends in epidemiology for non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Int J Cardiol 2024; 395:131561. [PMID: 37913964 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.131561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2023] [Revised: 10/05/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The global and national burden of rheumatic mitral valve disease (MVD) has been well studied and estimated before. However, little is known about non-rheumatic degenerative MVD. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trends in non-rheumatic degenerative MVD (NRDMVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on NRDMVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS Using the data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, including prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years, we analyzed the burden of NRDMVD and the detailed trends of NRDMVD mortality over the past 30 years in 204 countries and territories by implementing the age-period-cohort framework. RESULTS Globally, the number of deaths due to NRDMVD increased from 5695.89 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 5405.19 to 5895.4) × 1000 in 1990 to 9137.79 (95% UI: 8395.68 to 9743.55) × 1000 in 2019. The all-age mortality rate increased from 106.47 (95% UI: 101.03 to 110.2) per 100,000 to 118.1 (95% UI: 108.51 to 125.93) per 100,000, whereas the age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 170.45 (95% UI: 159.61 to 176.94) per 100,000 to 117.95 (95% UI: 107.83 to 125.92) per 100,000. The estimated net drift of mortality per year was -1.1% (95% confidence interval: -1.17 to -1.04). The risk of death due to NRDMVD increased with age, reaching its peak after 85 years old globally. Despite female patients being associated with lower local drift than male patients, no significant gender differences were observed in the age effect across countries and regions for all sociodemographic index (SDI) levels, except low-SDI regions. CONCLUSIONS We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to NRDMVD over approximately a 30-year period. The health-related burden of NRDMVD has declined worldwide; however, the condition persisted in low-SDI regions. Moreover, higher attention should be paid to female patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zeye Liu
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Peijian Wei
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Hong Jiang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Fengwen Zhang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wenbin Ouyang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Shouzheng Wang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Fang Fang
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xiangbin Pan
- Department of Structural Heart Disease, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, China & Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
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Gong S, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Yang X, Cheng B, Song Z, Liu X. Study on the burden of digestive diseases among Chinese residents in the 21st century. Front Public Health 2024; 11:1314122. [PMID: 38269386 PMCID: PMC10806247 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1314122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 01/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The global burden of digestive diseases has increased in recent years. The study aims to comprehend the trend of incidence and death rates related to digestive diseases in China from 2000 to 2020. Methods The study collected data on digestive diseases and their causes, such as incidence rates, death rates, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and estimated annual percentage change from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease website and the Chinese Health and Wellness Statistical Yearbook spanning. And we employed the age-period-cohort model to analyze the influence of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of death rates associated with digestive diseases. Results In contrast to the global burden of digestive disease, China experienced increases in the age-standardized incidence for inflammatory bowel disease, gallbladder and biliary diseases, as well as appendicitis from 2000 to 2019. The corresponding estimated annual percentage change for these diseases were 2.06, 1.74, and 0.99. Females showed a significantly higher incidence of digestive diseases, while males experienced a higher death rate. Moreover, individuals in the age groups under 5 years and over 60 years exhibited higher death rates than those in other age groups. Conclusion The findings underscore the ongoing importance of digestive diseases as a substantial public health issue in China. Reducing the disease burden of IBD in China necessitates healthcare systems to enhance their infrastructure and personnel readiness, ensuring an equitable, affordable, and accessible distribution of care for IBD patients. To reduce the occurrence and mortality rates of digestive diseases in China, the government should promote the adoption of early screening policies for individuals under the 5 year and those above the 60 year. These policies should be accompanied by customized preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shijun Gong
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
| | - Yuyu Zhang
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
| | - Yaqiong Wang
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
| | - Xianhu Yang
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
| | - Baolian Cheng
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
| | - Ziyi Song
- Guangzhou National Laboratory, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Xingrong Liu
- School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
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Cao F, Li DP, Wu GC, He YS, Liu YC, Hou JJ, Ni QY, Tao LM, Jiang ZX, Pan HF. Global, regional and national temporal trends in prevalence for musculoskeletal disorders in women of childbearing age, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Ann Rheum Dis 2024; 83:121-132. [PMID: 37666645 DOI: 10.1136/ard-2023-224530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To provide an overview and in-depth analysis of temporal trends in prevalence of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in women of childbearing age (WCBA) at global, regional and national levels over the last 30 years, with a special focus on their associations with age, period and birth cohort. METHODS Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. An age-period-cohort model was adopted to estimate the overall annual percentage change of prevalence (net drift, % per year), annual percentage change of prevalence within each age group (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS In 2019, the global number of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was 354.57 million (95% UI: 322.64 to 387.68). Fifty countries had at least one million prevalence, with India, China, the USA, Indonesia and Brazil being the highest accounting for 51.03% of global prevalence. From 1990 to 2019, a global net drift of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was -0.06% (95% CI: -0.07% to -0.05%) per year, ranging from -0.09% (95% CI: -0.10% to -0.07%) in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 0.10% (95% CI: 0.08% to 0.12%) in high-middle SDI region, with 138 countries presenting increasing trends, 24 presenting decreasing trends and 42 presenting relatively flat trends. As reflected by local drift, higher SDI regions had more age groups showing rising prevalence whereas lower SDI regions had more declining prevalence. Globally, an increasing occurrence of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA beyond adolescent and towards the adult stage has been prominent. Age effects illustrated similar patterns across different SDI regions, with risk increasing with age. High SDI region showed generally lower period risks over time, whereas others showed more unfavourable period risks. High, high-middle and middle SDI regions presented unfavourable prevalence deteriorations, whereas others presented favourable prevalence improvements in successively birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Although a favourable overall temporal trend (net drift) of MSK disorders prevalence in WCBA was observed over the last 30 years globally, there were 138 countries showing unfavourable rising trends, coupled with deteriorations in period/cohort risks in many countries, collectively raising concerns about timely realisation of the Targets of Sustainable Development Goal. Improvements in the MSK disorders-related prevention, management and treatment programmes in WCBA could decline the relative risk for successively younger birth cohorts and for all age groups over period progressing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fan Cao
- Department of Ophthalmology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Da-Peng Li
- Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Affiliated Bozhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Bozhou, Anhui, China
- Scientific Research and Experiment Center, The Affiliated Bozhou Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Bozhou, Anhui, China
| | - Guo-Cui Wu
- School of Nursing, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Yi-Sheng He
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Yu-Chen Liu
- Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Jing-Jing Hou
- Department of Ophthalmology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Qin-Yu Ni
- Department of Ophthalmology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
- Department of Clinical Medicine, The Second School of Clinical Medicine, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Li-Ming Tao
- Department of Ophthalmology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Zheng-Xuan Jiang
- Department of Ophthalmology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Hai-Feng Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
- Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, Anhui, China
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Li X, Liu Z, Jiang X, Xia R, Li Y, Pan X, Yao Y, Fan X. Global, regional, and national burdens of atrial fibrillation/flutter from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. J Glob Health 2023; 13:04154. [PMID: 37988383 PMCID: PMC10662782 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.13.04154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) significantly impacts countries with varying income levels. We aimed to present worldwide estimates of its burden from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods We derived cause-specific AF/AFL mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the GBD 2019 study data. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model to predict annual changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 50-55 to 90-95 years (local drifts), and period and cohort relative risks (period and cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019 by sex and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. This allowed us to determine the impacts of age, period, and cohort on mortality and DALY trends and the inequities and treatment gaps in AF/AFL management. Results Based on GBD data, our estimates showed that 59.7 million cases of AF/AFL occurred worldwide in 2019, while the number of AF/AFL deaths rose from 117 000 to 315 000 (61.5% women). All-age mortality and DALYs increased considerably from 1990 to 2019, and there was an increase in age risk and a shift in death and DALYs toward the older (>80) population. Although the global net drift mortality of AF/AFL decreased overall (-0.16%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.20, 0.12 per year), we observed an opposite trend in the low-middle SDI (0.53%; 95% CI = 0.44, 0.63) and low SDI regions (0.32%; 95% CI = 0.18, 0.45). Compared with net drift among men (-0.08%; 95% CI = -0.14, -0.02), women had a greater downward trend or smaller upward trend of AF/AFL (-0.21%; 95% CI = -0.26, -0.16) in mortality in middle- and low-middle-SDI countries (P < 0.001). Uzbekistan had the largest net drift of mortality (4.21%; 95% CI = 3.51, 4.9) and DALYs (2.16%; 95% CI = 2.05, 2.27) among all countries. High body mass index, high blood pressure, smoking, and alcohol consumption were more prevalent in developed countries; nevertheless, lead exposure was more prominent in developing countries and regions. Conclusions The burden of AF/AFL in 2019 and its temporal evolution from 1990 to 2019 differed significantly across SDI quintiles, sexes, geographic locations, and countries, necessitating the prioritisation of health policies based on risk-differentiated, cost-effective AF/AFL management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaofei Li
- Arrhythmia Center, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Zeye Liu
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xianchao Jiang
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Ruibing Xia
- Department of Medicine I, University Hospital Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | - Yakun Li
- Laboratory of Experimental Intensive Care and Anesthesiology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Xiangbin Pan
- Department of Cardiac Surgery, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Yao
- Arrhythmia Center, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaohan Fan
- Arrhythmia Center, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
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Zhao Y, Zhuang Z, Yang L, He D. Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2030. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e072751. [PMID: 37821140 PMCID: PMC10583025 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Death registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants. METHODS Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030. RESULTS Short-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000). CONCLUSIONS Findings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanji Zhao
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Zian Zhuang
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Department of Biostatistics, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Lin Yang
- School of Nursing, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Daihai He
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Research Institute for Future Food, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Zhu W, Liu J, Li Y, Shi Z, Wei S. Global, regional, and national trends in mesothelioma burden from 1990 to 2019 and the predictions for the next two decades. SSM Popul Health 2023; 23:101441. [PMID: 37334331 PMCID: PMC10272494 DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 05/25/2023] [Accepted: 05/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives We aimed to analyze the secular trends in mesothelioma burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time. Material and methods Based on the mesothelioma incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) data from 1990 to 2019 in Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), calculated from joinpoint regression model, was used to describe the burden trends. An age-period-cohort model was utilized to disentangle age, period, and birth cohort effects on mesothelioma incidence and mortality trends. The mesothelioma burden was projected by the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results Globally, there were the significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.3, P < 0.001), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = -0.3, 95%CI: -0.4,-0.2, P < 0.001), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) (AAPC = -0.5, 95%CI: -0.6,-0.4, P < 0.001) of mesothelioma overall 30 years. For regions, Central Europe presented the most distinct increases and the most substantial decrease was observed in Andean Latin America on all ASRs (age-standardized rates) from 1990 to 2019. At national level, the largest annualized growth for full-range trends of incidence, mortality, and DALYs was in Georgia. Conversely, the fastest descent of all ASRs was observed in Peru. The ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR in 2039 predicted 0.33, 0.27, and 6.90 per 100,000, respectively. Conclusions The global burden of mesothelioma declined over the past 30 years, with variability across regions and countries/territories, and this trend will continue in the future.
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Zhang B, Wang X. The mortality trends analysis of ischemic heart disease attributed to (PM) 2.5 exposure in China from 1990 to 2019 in APC model. Am J Transl Res 2023; 15:5495-5507. [PMID: 37692945 PMCID: PMC10492055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To analyze the mortality trend of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributed to particulate matter (PM) 2.5 exposure among Chinese populations from 1990 to 2019. To evaluate the influences of cohort, period, and age on long-term of IHD mortality trends. METHODS Global burden of disease (GBD) data in 2019 regarding IHD death rate attributed to exposure to (PM) 2.5 in China from 1990 to 2019 were adopted. The age-period-cohort (APC) model based on the R language produced by the National Cancer Institute of the United States was used for statistical analysis to investigate the influences of different ages, periods, and cohorts on IHD death rate attributed to exposure to (PM) 2.5. RESULTS The age-standardized death rate of IHD attributed to exposure to ambient (PM) 2.5 in China revealed an uptrend from 1990 to 2019. This increased from 8.63/100,000 in 1990 to 21.31/100,000 in 2019. This was an increase of 1.47%. The age-standardized IHD death rate attributed to exposure to household (PM) 2.5 showed a decreasing trend. This decreased from 19.61/100,000 in 1990 to 8.72/100,000 in 2019. This was a decrease of 0.74%. The results of the APC model indicated that the annual net drift of IHD mortality attributed to exposure to (PM) 2.5 was -0.10%. The annual net drifts of exposure to household and ambient (PM) 2.5 were -4.54% and 3.44%, respectively. The IHD death rate attributed to ambient and household (PM) 2.5 exposure in the same birth cohort enhanced with age. With time, the rate ration (RR) of period effects of IHD mortality attributed to ambient (PM) 2.5 exposure for both male and female showed an upward trend. The RR of period effects of IHD death rate attributed to household (PM) 2.5 exposure suggested a downtrend. In the consecutive birth cohorts, the population in China with a later birth cohort presented a higher risk of IHD death attributed to exposure to ambient (PM) 2.5 and a lower risk of IHD death attributed to household (PM) 2.5 exposure. CONCLUSIONS In China for the burden of IHD attributed to exposure to (PM) 2.5, the primary environmental risk was ambient (PM) 2.5 exposure compared to exposure to household PM2.5. IHD exposure to environmental air pollution posed a greater risk to young people.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical UniversityTai’an, Shandong, China
| | - Xiaoxia Wang
- Department of Hematology and Oncology, The First People’s Hospital of Tai’anTai’an, Shandong, China
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Hu S, Li Y, Zhu W, Liu J, Wei S. Global, region and national trends and age-period-cohort effects in colorectal cancer burden from 1990 to 2019, with predictions to 2039. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:83245-83259. [PMID: 37340163 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-28223-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/22/2023]
Abstract
Nowadays, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer deaths and contributes to a gradually increasing disease burden. We aimed to estimate the secular trends of global CRC burden, the effect of age, period, and birth cohort, and project the global burden over time. Based on the epidemiological CRC data from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories from GBD 2019, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), was calculated from a linear model and joinpoint regression model. We utilized an age-period-cohort model to reckon age, period, and birth cohort effects on CRC age-standardized rate. The burden of CRC was projected by conducting the BAPC model. Globally, there was a slight decline in the age-standardized DALY rate, which was more apparent in females, with high SDI regions and in Australia and Western Europe areas. Meanwhile, our model predicts a weaker increase in morbidity (EAPC of 0.37) and a speedier reduction in mortality (EAPC of -0.66) by the next 20 years. The relative risk of period for high SDI regions decreased from 1.08 (95%UI: 1.06-1.1) in 1990-1994 to 0.85 (95%UI:0.83-0.88) in 2015-2019, but worsens in low and middle SDI regions. The local drifts were more than 1 in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups, indicating the rising tide of early-onset CRC. Given the gender and region-specific CRC, targeted efforts to reduce the prevalence of risk factors, improve screening coverage rates, and strengthen foundational medical facilities are necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuhua Hu
- Department of Public Health, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yiling Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China
| | - Wenmin Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China
| | - Jialin Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China
| | - Sheng Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, PR China.
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Fu Y, Ba L, Lü N, Yang H, Hong X, Zhou J, Sun Z. Burden of falls attributable to low bone mineral density among people aged 60 years and over in China from 1990 to 2019. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1204497. [PMID: 37448662 PMCID: PMC10338097 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1204497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Falls in older people have become a major public health, economic and societal problem. Osteoporosis predisposes older adults to high risk of falls, which were the most common outcome attributable to low bone mineral density (LBMD). In this study, we analyze the long-term trends in falls burden attributable to LBMD among people aged 60 years and over from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Methods Data from GBD 2019 were used to assess the long-term trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates by Joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort on mortality rate of falls attributable to LBMD. Results The mortality and DALYs rates of falls attributable to LBMD among people aged 60 years and over increased from 1990 to 2019, with average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of 1.74% (95% CI: -1.47 to 2.01%) and 0.99% (95% CI: 0.80-1.19%), respectively. APC analysis revealed that the mortality rate due to LBMD significantly increased among the older people over the age of 75 years. The risk of falls mortality due to LBMD during the period of 1990-2019 initially declined but later elevated. An overall increasing risk for falls death attributable to LBMD was presented across birth cohorts, but in cohorts born after 1930, the upward trend has slowed down. The overall net drift per year attributable to LBMD was above 0. The corresponding results showed that the negative impact of period and cohort effects among males was more pronounced than those among females. Conclusions Falls attributable to LBMD remain an ongoing health burden in the older people in China, and the mortality has been on the rise from 1990 to 2019, especially among the older people aged 80+ years group. The prevention and treatment of LBMD should be emphasized, especially among males and oldest-old people. Furthermore, there is an urgent need to strengthen the implementation of system-wide, integrated and effective public health policies and other health interventions in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yali Fu
- Jiangsu Health Development Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Contraceptives Adverse Reaction Surveillance, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Laboratory of Fertility Protection and Health Technology Assessment, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Lei Ba
- Jiangsu Health Development Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Contraceptives Adverse Reaction Surveillance, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Laboratory of Fertility Protection and Health Technology Assessment, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Nianqing Lü
- Jiangsu Health Development Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Contraceptives Adverse Reaction Surveillance, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Laboratory of Fertility Protection and Health Technology Assessment, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Huafeng Yang
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xin Hong
- Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Jinyi Zhou
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Zhiming Sun
- Jiangsu Health Development Research Center, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Contraceptives Adverse Reaction Surveillance, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
- Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Laboratory of Fertility Protection and Health Technology Assessment, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
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Lou Z, Huang Y, Li S, Luo Z, Li C, Chu K, Zhang T, Song P, Zhou J. Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability for uterine fibroids, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:916. [PMID: 37208621 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15765-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Uterine fibroids are the most common benign neoplasm of the uterus and a major source of morbidity for women. We report an overview of trends in uterine fibroids of incidence rate, prevalence rate, years lived with disability (YLDs) rate in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS The incident case, incidence rate, age-standardized rate (ASR) for incidence, prevalent case, prevalence rate, ASR for prevalence, number of YLDs, YLD rate, and ASR for YLDs were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study. We utilized an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in the rate of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 10 to 14 years to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. RESULTS Globally, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and the number of YLDs of uterine fibroids increased from 1990 to 2019 with the growth of 67.07%, 78.82% and 77.34%, respectively. High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high-middle SDI quintiles with decreasing trends (net drift < 0.0%), and increasing trends (net drift > 0.0%) were observed in middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI quintiles in annual percentage change of incidence rate, prevalence rate and YLDs rate over the past 30 years. There were 186 countries and territories that showed an increasing trend in incidence rate, 183 showed an increasing trend in prevalence rate and 174 showed an increasing trend in YLDs rate. Moreover, the effects of age on uterine fibroids increased with age and peaked at 35-44 years and then declined with advancing age. Both the period and cohort effects on uterine fibroids showed increasing trend in middle SDI, low-middle SDI and low SDI quintiles in recent 15 years and birth cohort later than 1965. CONCLUSIONS The global burden of uterine fibroids is becoming more serious in middle SDI, low-middle SDI and low SDI quintiles. Raising awareness of uterine fibroids, increasing medical investment and improving levels of medical care are necessary to reduce future burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheng Lou
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yizhou Huang
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Shuting Li
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zhou Luo
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Chunming Li
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ketan Chu
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Peige Song
- School of Public Health and Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jianhong Zhou
- Department of Gynecology, Women's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
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Simons K, Bradfield O, Spittal MJ, King T. Age and gender patterns in health service utilisation: Age-Period-Cohort modelling of linked health service usage records. BMC Health Serv Res 2023; 23:480. [PMID: 37173743 PMCID: PMC10176675 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-023-09456-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health service utilisation changes across the life-course and may be influenced by contextual factors at different times. There is some evidence that men engage less with preventive health services, including attending doctors' clinics, however the extent to which this varies temporally and across different age groups is unclear. This study aimed to describe age or cohort effects on engagement with GPs among employed mothers and fathers in Australia, and differences in these trends between men and women. METHODS We linked data from the 'Growing up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children' with administrative health service records from Medicare. We used a small-domain estimation Age-Period-Cohort method to describe patterns in health service use among working-age male and female parents in Australia while adjusting for employment status and controlling for time-invariant factors. Our small-domain method assumes a smooth response surface of Age, Period and Cohort. RESULTS Male parents have lower health service engagement than women of the same age at the same time period. Men's pattern of health service use across time is likely explained entirely by ageing. That is, we find that patterns in health service utilisation among men are largely driven by age effects, with no evidence of periods or cohort effects in health service engagement for men between 2002 and 2016. CONCLUSIONS Differences in health service utilisation between male and female parents at all age-period-cohort combinations highlight a need for more research to examine the extent to which this level of health service use among Australian men meets men's health needs, as well as barriers and enablers of health service engagement for men. Absence of evidence for period effects suggests that there is little shift in gendered patterns of health service utilisation during the observed period.
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Affiliation(s)
- Koen Simons
- Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health,University of Melbourne, 207 Bouverie Street, 3010, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Owen Bradfield
- Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health,University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Matthew J Spittal
- Centre for Mental Health, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health,University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Tania King
- Centre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health,University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
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Peng S, Liu X, Cao W, Liu Y, Liu Y, Wang W, Zhang T, Guan X, Tang J, Zhang Q. Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for stroke, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the global burden of disease 2019 study and implications for stroke prevention. Int J Cardiol 2023:S0167-5273(23)00652-6. [PMID: 37150213 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2023.05.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2023] [Revised: 04/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the fact that stroke is the second leading cause of death globally, a comprehensive and comparable assessment of mortality, and epidemiologic trends has not been conducted for most regions.We estimated the global and regional burden of stroke from 1990 to 2019 using data from the 2019 Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors. METHODS For the period between 1990 and 2019, we used an age-period-cohort model to calculate the annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), local drifts, and period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects). Meanwhile, to quantify the temporal trends in stroke age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were determined by sex, area. With the potential to uncover disparities and treatment gaps in stroke care, this approach enables the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in mortality trends. FINDINGS Global stroke deaths in 2019 were 6,552,725 (95% UI 5,995,200 to 7,015,139). Between 1990 and 2019, the ASMR declined globally by 36.43% (95% UI -41.65 to -31.2), with decreases in all SDI quintiles. The net drift in stroke mortality from 1990 to 2019 varied from -2.83% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]:-3.39 to -2.77) in countries with a high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to -1.21% per year (95% CI: -1.26 to -1.16) in countries with a low SDI. During the past 30 years, favorable mortality reductions were generally found in high-SDI countries (net drift = -3.1% [95% CI: -3.4 to -2.8] per year) and high-middle SDI countries (-2.8% [-3.0 to -2.6]). However, 31 of 204 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥ - 0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts among high and high-middle SDI countries, with the exceptions of Kuwait, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Guam, RussianFederation, Lithuania, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovin, and Bulgaria. INTERPRETATION Notwithstanding mortality from stroke has increased globally over the past 30 years, adverse period and cohort effects have been found in many countries, calling into question the adequacy of healthcare for stroke patients of all ages. These lapses have a significant impact on the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets on mortality from age 60+ and NCDs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengxian Peng
- Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Xiaozhu Liu
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Wenzhai Cao
- Department of Cardiology, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Yue Liu
- Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Yuan Liu
- Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Information Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Ting Zhang
- Scientific Research Center,Sichuan Vocational College of Health and Rehabilitation, Zigong, China
| | - Xiaoyan Guan
- Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Juan Tang
- Scientific Research Department, First People's Hospital of Zigong City, Zigong, China
| | - Qingwei Zhang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Key Laboratory Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ministry of Health, State Key Laboratory for Oncogenes and Related Genes, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai Institute of Digestive Disease, Shanghai, China.
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van Niekerk CC, Otten JHDM, van Rossum MM, van den Reek JMPA, Brummelkamp E, Mol M, Groenewoud JHMM, Verbeek ALM. Trends in three major histological subtypes of cutaneous melanoma in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2016. Int J Dermatol 2023; 62:508-513. [PMID: 36539393 DOI: 10.1111/ijd.16559] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Revised: 11/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Time trend analysis of cutaneous melanoma (CM) mortality in fair skin populations shows both a gradual decrease and/or an increase. To explain these differences, we analyzed long-term time trends in the incidence of the most common histological subtypes of CM: superficial spreading melanoma (SSM), lentigo maligna melanoma (LMM), and nodular melanoma (NM). METHODS Using data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and Statistics Netherlands, the number and rates of cases diagnosed with SSM, LLM, and NM from 1989 to 2016 were analyzed by age, calendar period, and birth cohort of people born in successive periods from 1925 to 1973. RESULTS Primary CM was diagnosed in 52,000 men and 66,588 women in the study period. The annual age-standardized incidence rate increased three-fold from 14 to 42 per 100,000 person-years. The most common subtype was SSM (50%), followed by LMM (23%) and NM (14%). Age-specific subtype rates showed an upward trend over time for both men and women. Younger birth cohorts had higher rates of SSM and LMM diagnosis than older birth cohorts. This birth cohort pattern was not observed for NM. CONCLUSIONS We observed a strong increase in the melanoma epidemic curves in the light-skinned Dutch population over the last three decades. This increase is explained by younger generations having higher rates of SSM and LMM than older generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catharina C van Niekerk
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - J Hans D M Otten
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Michelle M van Rossum
- Department of Dermatology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Erik Brummelkamp
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Martijn Mol
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - J Hans M M Groenewoud
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - André L M Verbeek
- Department for Health Evidence, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
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Alsadhan N, Almaiman A, Pujades-Rodriguez M, Brennan C, Shuweihdi F, Alhurishi SA, West RM. Statistical methods for measuring trends in colorectal cancer incidence in registries: A systematic review. Front Oncol 2022; 12:1049486. [DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.1049486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2022] [Accepted: 11/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BackgroundMonitoring cancer trends in a population is essential for tracking the disease’s burden, allocating resources, and informing public health policies. This review describes variations in commonly employed methods to estimate colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence trends.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search in four databases to identify population-based studies reporting CRC incidence trends, published between January 2010 and May 2020. We extracted and described data on methods to estimate trends and assess model validity, and the software used.ResultsThis review included 145 articles based on studies conducted in five continents. The majority (93%) presented visual summaries of trends combined with absolute, relative, or annual change estimates. Fourteen (10%) articles exclusively calculated the relative change in incidence over a given time interval, presented as the percentage of change in rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was the most commonly used method for assessing incidence trends (n= 65, 45%), providing estimates of the annual percentage change (APC) in rates. Nineteen (13%) studies performed Poisson regression and 18 (12%) linear regression analysis. Age-period-cohort modeling- a type of generalized linear models- was conducted in 18 (12%) studies. Thirty-nine (37%) of the studies modeling incidence trends (n=104, 72%) indicated the method used to evaluate model fitness. The joinpoint program (52%) was the statistical software most commonly used.ConclusionThis review identified variation in the calculation of CRC incidence trends and inadequate reporting of model fit statistics. Our findings highlight the need for increasing clarity and transparency in reporting methods to facilitate interpretation, reproduction, and comparison with findings from previous studies.
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Reiner AS, Panageas KS. Kaposi Sarcoma in the United States: Understanding Disparate Risk. JNCI Cancer Spectr 2022; 6:pkac079. [PMID: 36352503 PMCID: PMC9703944 DOI: 10.1093/jncics/pkac079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Accepted: 10/28/2022] [Indexed: 07/13/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Anne S Reiner
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Katherine S Panageas
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, USA
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Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and Projections until 2044 in China. Cancers (Basel) 2022; 14:cancers14163883. [PMID: 36010878 PMCID: PMC9405822 DOI: 10.3390/cancers14163883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary The disease burden trend of lung cancer that is attributable to occupational carcinogens in China remains unclear. We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019 to investigate the related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and to project the disease burden for the next 25 years. The results indicate that the disease burden of lung cancer that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years. Abstract Background: Little is known about trends in the lung cancer burden from the disease that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China. Methods: Data regarding the lung cancer burden that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis were conducted to estimate the trend of lung cancer burden as a result of occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian APC model was used to predict the disease burden until 2044. Results: The average annual percentage changes of age-standardized summary exposure values (SEVs) of occupational lung carcinogens, as well as the age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer due to occupational carcinogens, were 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–0.5%) and 0.1% (95% CI: 0–0.2%), respectively. In addition, both the joinpoint regression analysis and APC analysis demonstrated significantly increased trends of age-standardized lung cancer mortality (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) as a result of occupational carcinogens. Asbestos and silica accounted for the two most important occupational lung carcinogens in China. The absolute burden is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging and the age-specific rate of illness. Conclusions: The lung cancer burden that could be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.
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Cameron NA, Petito LC, Shah NS, Perak AM, Catov JM, Bello NA, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M, Lloyd-Jones DM, Greenland P, Grobman WA, Khan SS. Association of Birth Year of Pregnant Individuals With Trends in Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in the United States, 1995-2019. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2228093. [PMID: 36001318 PMCID: PMC9403773 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.28093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are leading causes of morbidity and mortality among pregnant individuals as well as newborns, with increasing incidence during the past decade. Understanding the individual associations of advancing age of pregnant individuals at delivery, more recent delivery year (period), and more recent birth year of pregnant individuals (cohort) with adverse trends in hypertensive disorders of pregnancy could help guide public health efforts to improve the health of pregnant individuals. OBJECTIVE To clarify the independent associations of delivery year and birth year of pregnant individuals, independent of age of pregnant individuals, with incident rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This serial cross-sectional study of 38 141 561 nulliparous individuals aged 15 to 44 years with a singleton, live birth used 1995-2019 natality data from the National Vital Statistics System. EXPOSURES Year of delivery (period) and birth year (cohort) of pregnant individuals. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Rates of incident hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, defined as gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, or eclampsia, recorded on birth certificates. Generalized linear mixed models were used to calculate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) comparing the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in each delivery period (adjusted for age and cohort) and birth cohort (adjusted for age and period) with the baseline group as the reference for each. Analyses were additionally stratified by the self-reported racial and ethnic group of pregnant individuals. RESULTS Of 38 141 561 individuals, 20.2% were Hispanic, 0.8% were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, 6.5% were non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, 13.9% were non-Hispanic Black, and 57.8% were non-Hispanic White. Among pregnant individuals who delivered in 2015 to 2019 compared with 1995 to 1999, the aRR for the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was 1.59 (95% CI, 1.57-1.62), adjusted for age and cohort. Among pregnant individuals born in 1996 to 2004 compared with 1951 to 1959, the aRR for the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was 2.61 (95% CI, 2.41-2.84), adjusted for age and period. The incidence was higher among self-identified non-Hispanic Black individuals in each birth cohort, with similar relative changes for period (aRR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.70-1.81]) and cohort (aRR, 3.26 [95% CI, 2.72-3.91]) compared with non-Hispanic White individuals (period: aRR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.57-1.63]; cohort: aRR, 2.53 [95% CI, 2.26-2.83]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cross-sectional study suggests that more recent birth cohorts of pregnant individuals have experienced a doubling of rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, even after adjustment for age and delivery period. Substantial racial and ethnic disparities persisted across generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalie A. Cameron
- Division of Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Lucia C. Petito
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Nilay S. Shah
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Amanda M. Perak
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Pediatrics, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
- Stanley Manne Children’s Research Institute, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Janet M. Catov
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Natalie A. Bello
- Department of Cardiology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California
| | - Simon Capewell
- Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Martin O’Flaherty
- Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Donald M. Lloyd-Jones
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Philip Greenland
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
| | - William A. Grobman
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus
| | - Sadiya S. Khan
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois
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Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality in China and Australia from 1990 to 2019. Sci Rep 2022; 12:8410. [PMID: 35589955 PMCID: PMC9120450 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-12483-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in China and Australia, the countries with different socioenvironmental contexts in the Western Pacific Region. Comparing the age-period-cohort effect on LC mortality (LCM) between the two countries can help plan interventions and draw lessons for countries in the region. We collected LCM estimates between 1990 and 2019 from the GBD 2019. Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to compute the net drift, local drift, cross-sectional age curve, longitudinal age curve, and the rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort. China had a higher LC age-standardized mortality rate than Australia in 2019 (men: 58.10 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 46.53, 70.89] vs. 30.13 [95% UI: 27.88, 32.31]/100,000 population; women: 22.86 [95% UI: 18.52, 27.52] vs. 17.80 [95% UI: 15.93, 19.34]/100,000 population). Period and cohort effects on LCM improved more markedly among Australian men (RR for period effect, from 1.47 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41, 1.53] to 0.79 [95% CI 0.75, 0.84]; RR for cohort effect, from 2.56 [95% CI 2.44, 2.68] to 0.36 [95% CI 0.11, 1.18]) and Chinese women (RR for period effect, from 1.06 [95% CI 1.01, 1.11] to 0.85 [95% CI 0.82, 0.89]; RR for cohort effect, from 0.71 [95% CI 0.65, 0.78] to 0.51 [95% CI 0.26, 1.03]) during the study period and birth cohort. The LCM in Chinese population aged 65 to 79 and Australian women aged 75 to 79 increased. Smoking and particulate matter (PM) contributed most to LCM in China, while smoking and occupational carcinogens contributed most in Australia. Decreasing period and cohort risks for LCM attributable to smoking and PM were more remarkable in Australia than in China. The LCM attributable to occupational carcinogens was higher in Australia than in China, particularly for those aged 60 to 79. Vigorous tobacco and PM control, which brought a substantial decline in LCM in Australia, may help reduce LCM in China. Australia should highlight LC prevention among people with occupational exposure. Chinese aged ≥ 65 and Australian women aged ≥ 75 should be the priorities for LC interventions.
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Zhao Y, Cao J, Ma Y, Mubarik S, Bai J, Yang D, Wang K, Yu C. Demographics of road injuries and micromobility injuries among China, India, Japan, and the United States population: evidence from an age-period-cohort analysis. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:760. [PMID: 35421975 PMCID: PMC9011927 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13152-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2021] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Micromobility sharing platforms have involved skyrocketing numbers of users in multiple countries since 2010. However, few studies have examined the overall impact of the growing micromobility market on road injuries. METHOD We use road injury data from the Global Burden of Disease Study database to examine the effect of age, period, and cohort on micromobility injury-related deaths and incidence. We compared four countries that vary in demographic background and road infrastructure. By comparing the countries, we analyzed the relationship between the trends in road injuries and these factors. RESULTS We found an overall upward trend in micromobility injuries. A higher risk of micromobility-related injuries was witnessed in China and the US in 2015-2019, and people older than 45 showed a growing micromobility-related mortality and incidence rate in China, India, and the US. Cohorts after 1960 showed higher micromobility injury incidence risks in China and India, but the population born after 1990 in India showed a slightly lower risk compared to those before it. CONCLUSIONS The boosted usage of micromobility devices explains these increasing trends. Road infrastructure and separated traffic ease the collisions from micromobility devices. The overall situation calls for improvement in legislation as well as road infrastructure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yudi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jinhong Cao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Yudiyang Ma
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jianjun Bai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Donghui Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Kai Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
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Su X, Zheng L, Zhang H, Shen T, Liu Y, Hu X. Secular Trends of Acute Viral Hepatitis Incidence and Mortality in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 9:842088. [PMID: 35360747 PMCID: PMC8962367 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.842088] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Understanding the patterns and trends in the context of both incidence and mortality and anticipating future trends is important for viral hepatitis prevention, treatment, and guiding resource allocation in China. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive temporal analysis of acute viral hepatitis and its type using the most updated data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019) to estimate the incidence and mortality of hepatitis from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions to 2030. Methods The age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) of viral hepatitis in China were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). Trends of ASIR and ASMR for viral hepatitis were plotted using locally weighted regression (LOESS). We used joinpoint regression analysis to detect temporal changes and estimate the annual percent of change (APC) of each trend segment and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed to describe ASIR and ASMR trends between 1990 and 2019 and projections to 2030. Results In 1990, there were 67 million incident cases of acute viral hepatitis, which then decreased to 47 million incidence cases in 2019. Hepatitis A and hepatitis B account for the majority of acute viral hepatitis, and the most pronounced declines in hepatitis B (−48.7%) and hepatitis C (−39.0%) were observed between 1990 and 2019. The ASIR of overall acute viral hepatitis shows a persistent decline, with an average annual percent of change (AAPC) of −1.9% (95% CI: −1.9, −1.8) between 1990 and 2019. The trend of ASMR demonstrated a rapid decline between 1990 and 2005, followed by a slow decline until 2030. Conclusion Our study reveals favorable declining trends of incidence and mortality for acute viral hepatitis in China from 1990 and 2019, and these favorable trends are predicted to continue up to 2030. Despite the favorable trends observed, the absolute number of viral hepatitis, especially hepatitis A and B, is still substantial in China. A scaled-up vaccine campaign is still needed to tackle the large number of vaccine preventable hepatitis infections.
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Ma Y, Yang D, Bai J, Zhao Y, Hu Q, Yu C. Time Trends in Stroke and Subtypes Mortality Attributable to Household Air Pollution in Chinese and Indian Adults: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Front Aging Neurosci 2022; 14:740549. [PMID: 35250534 PMCID: PMC8895296 DOI: 10.3389/fnagi.2022.740549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Household air pollution (HAP) exposure is recognized as a major health concern in areas relied on residential burning of solid fuels for cooking and heating. However, previous study has focused on mortality across time and reported changes in age-specific mortality globally but failed to distinguish cohort from period effects. Therefore, this study aimed to differentiate the relative contributions of period and cohort effects to overall time trends of HAP-attributable stroke mortality between the most presentative East and South Asia countries. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using the age-period-cohort (APC) model. The overall age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of stroke in China decreased by 39.8% compared with 35.8% in India, while stroke subtypes in both the sexes and countries showed consecutive significant declines from 1990 to 2019. The age-specific and cohort-specific HAP-attributable stroke mortality declined over time in China and India. By APC analysis, substantially increasing age effects were presented for stroke and subtypes from 25 to 84 years. China had a rapid reduction in the independent period and cohort effects. Also, the risk of death for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) had the most striking decline for both sexes in period and cohort effects. Reductions of India were less favorable than China, but the independent period and cohort effects progressively decreased during the entire period for both the sexes. Males experienced a slightly higher mortality risk than females in both countries. Although prominent reductions were observed in HAP-attributable stroke and subtypes mortality during the past 30 years, China and India still suffered uneven HAP-attributable stroke burden. Thus, it is of high significance to introduce advanced solid fuels replace technology and knowledge regarding clean fuel use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yudiyang Ma
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Donghui Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jianjun Bai
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Yudi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Qian Hu
- Department of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- *Correspondence: Chuanhua Yu, ; orcid.org/0000-0002-5467-2481
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Su Z, Zou Z, Hay SI, Liu Y, Li S, Chen H, Naghavi M, Zimmerman MS, Martin GR, Wilner LB, Sable CA, Murray CJL, Kassebaum NJ, Patton GC, Zhang H. Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 43:101249. [PMID: 35059612 PMCID: PMC8760503 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2021] [Revised: 11/27/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality from birth defects worldwide. We report an overview of trends in CHD mortality in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS Cause-specific CHD mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We utilised an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 0 to 4 to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. This approach allows for the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in the mortality trends, with the potential to identify disparities and treatment gaps in cardiac care. FINDINGS CHD is the leading cause of deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in those under 20 years. Global CHD deaths in 2019 were 217,000 (95% uncertainty interval 177,000-262,000). There were 129 countries with at least 50 deaths. India, China, Pakistan, and Nigeria had the highest mortality, accounting for 39.7% of deaths globally. Between 1990 and 2019, the net drift of CHD mortality ranged from -2.41% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.55, -2.67) in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -0.62% per year (95% CI: -0.82, -0.42) in low-SDI countries. Globally, there was an emerging transition in the age distribution of deaths from paediatric to adult populations, except for an increasing trend of mortality in those aged 10-34 years in Mexico and Pakistan. During the past 30 years, favourable mortality reductions were generally found in most high-SDI countries like South Korea (net drift = -4.0% [95% CI -4.8 to -3.1] per year) and the United States (-2.3% [-2.5 to -2.0]), and also in many middle-SDI countries like Brazil (-2.7% [-3.1 to 2.4]) and South Africa (-2.5% [-3.2 to -1.8]). However, 52 of 129 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts ≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥-0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts amongst high- and high-middle-SDI countries, with the exceptions of Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan. 14 middle-SDI countries such as Ecuador and Mexico, and 16 low-middle-SDI countries including India and 20 low-SDI countries including Pakistan, had unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts. INTERPRETATION CHD mortality is a useful and accessible indicator of trends in the provision of congenital cardiac care both in early childhood and across later life. Improvements in the treatment of CHD should reduce the risk for successively younger cohorts and shift the risk for all age groups over time. Although there were gains in CHD mortality globally over the past three decades, unfavourable period and cohort effects were found in many countries, raising questions about adequacy of their health care for CHD patients across all age groups. These failings carry significant implications for the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal targets for under-5 years and NCD mortality. FUNDING Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81525002, 31971048, 82073573 to ZZ and HZ), Shanghai Outstanding Medical Academic Leader program (2019LJ22 to HZ), and Collaborative Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2020CXJQ01 to HZ), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for the Global Burden of Disease Project (to NJK) and NHMRC fellowship administered through the University of Melbourne (to GCP).
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhanhao Su
- State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Pediatric Cardiac Surgery Center, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyong Zou
- Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University School of Public Health, No.38 Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
- Corresponding authors.
| | - Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Yiwei Liu
- Heart Center and Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart Disease, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Room 7016, Heart centre, Shanghai Children's Medical centre, No. 1678, Dongfang Rd, Pudong District, Shanghai, China
| | - Shoujun Li
- State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Pediatric Cardiac Surgery Center, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Huiwen Chen
- Heart Center and Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart Disease, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Room 7016, Heart centre, Shanghai Children's Medical centre, No. 1678, Dongfang Rd, Pudong District, Shanghai, China
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Meghan S. Zimmerman
- Division of Pediatric Cardiology, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, United States
- Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States
- Department of Cardiology, Children's National Health System, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Gerard R. Martin
- Department of Cardiology, Children's National Health System, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Lauren B. Wilner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Craig A. Sable
- Department of Cardiology, Children's National Health System, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Nicholas J. Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
- Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Harborview Medical Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - George C. Patton
- Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, Peking University School of Public Health, No.38 Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
- Department of Pediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Centre for Adolescent Health, Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Hao Zhang
- Heart Center and Shanghai Institute of Pediatric Congenital Heart Disease, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Room 7016, Heart centre, Shanghai Children's Medical centre, No. 1678, Dongfang Rd, Pudong District, Shanghai, China
- Corresponding authors.
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van Niekerk CC, Groenewoud HM, Verbeek AL. Trends and projections in cutaneous melanoma death in the Netherlands from 1950 to 2045. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e27784. [PMID: 35049174 PMCID: PMC9191606 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000027784] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Revised: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
ABSTRACT Child sun protection has recently been linked to the future disappearance of fatal melanoma in adults in successive generations. In the Netherlands, however, mortality rates from melanoma have increased gradually from the 1950s, with some indication of stabilisation since 2010, which may be compatible with a birth cohort effect by sun-protective measures and screening. To study the trajectories ahead a trend analysis was applied. Numbers of people with cutaneous melanoma as underlying cause of death from 1950 to 2018 and population data were derived from Statistics Netherlands. A graphical approach was used to explore trends in mortality by age, calendar period, and cohorts born in the successive periods of 1889 to 1979. Age-period-cohort modelling outcomes and population forecasts provided projections of mortality until 2045. Based on 24,151 cases of melanoma death (13,256 men, 10,895 women), age-standardised mortality rates were similar from 1950 to 1989 for both genders, and increased thereafter more in men. The age-curve patterns changed gradually towards higher death rates at older age, implying the existence of a birth cohort effect. The age-period-cohort models showed an increase in melanoma mortality rates in successive generations. For women, the birth cohort effect plateaued for generations born since the mid-1980s. The projected total mortality number was predicted to rise in the next 3 decades.It is concluded that a small future decline of mortality in younger generations can be expected in the Netherlands, but mortality is still rising for the total population.
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Barcelo A, Valdivia A, Sabag A, Rey-Lopez JP, Galil AGDS, Colugnati FA, Pastor-Valero M. Educational Differences in Diabetes Mortality among Hispanics in the United States: An Epidemiological Analysis of Vital Statistics Data (1989-2018). J Clin Med 2021; 10:jcm10194498. [PMID: 34640515 PMCID: PMC8509795 DOI: 10.3390/jcm10194498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Revised: 09/09/2021] [Accepted: 09/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Diabetes accounted for approximately 10% of all-cause mortality among those 20–79 years of age worldwide in 2019. In 1986–1989, Hispanics in the United States of America (USA) represented 6.9% of the national population with diabetes, and this proportion increased to 15.1% in 2010–2014. Recently published findings demonstrated the impact of attained education on amenable mortality attributable to diabetes among Non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs) and Non-Hispanic Blacks (HNBs). Previous cohort studies have shown that low education is also a detrimental factor for diabetes mortality among the Hispanic population in the USA. However, the long-term impact of low education on diabetes mortality among Hispanics in the USA is yet to be determined. Aims and methods: The aim of this study was to measure the impact of achieving a 12th-grade education on amenable mortality due to diabetes among Hispanics in the USA from 1989 to 2018. We used a time-series designed to analyze death certificate data of Hispanic-classified men and women, aged 25 to 74 years, whose underlying cause of death was diabetes, between 1989 and 2018. Death certificate data from the USA National Center for Health Statistics was downloaded, as well as USA population estimates by age, sex, and ethnicity from the USA Census Bureau. The analyses were undertaken using JointPoint software and the Age–Period–Cohort Web Tool, both developed by the USA National Cancer Institute. Results: The analyses showed that between 1989 to 2018, age- and sex-standardized diabetes mortality rates among the least educated individuals were higher than those among the most educated individuals (both sexes together, p = 0.036; males, p = 0.053; females, p = 0.036). The difference between the least and most educated individuals became more pronounced in recent years, as shown by independent confidence intervals across the study period. Sex-based analyses revealed that the age-adjUSAted diabetes mortality rate had increased to a greater extent among the least educated males and females, respectively, than among the most educated. Conclusions: The results of the analyses demonstrated a powerful effect of low education on amenable mortality attributable to diabetes among the Hispanic population in the USA. As an increasing prevalence of diabetes among the least educated Hispanics has been reported, there is a great need to identify and implement effective preventive services, self-management, and quality care practices, that may assist in reducing the growing disparity among those most vulnerable, such as minority populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto Barcelo
- Miller School of Medicine, Department of Public Health Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33136, USA;
- Departamento de Clinica Medica, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-330, Brazil
- Correspondence:
| | - Alfredo Valdivia
- Miller School of Medicine, Department of Public Health Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33136, USA;
| | - Angelo Sabag
- NICM Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Westmead, NSW 2145, Australia;
| | - Juan Pablo Rey-Lopez
- Faculty of Health Sciences, International University of Valencia, 46003 Valencia, Spain;
- Faculty of Sport, Universidad Católica San Antonio de Murcia, 30107 Murcia, Spain
| | | | - Fernando A.B. Colugnati
- Department of Post-Graduation, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-330, Brazil;
| | - María Pastor-Valero
- Departamento de Salud Pública, História de la Ciencia y Ginecología, Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, 03550 Sant Joan d’Alacant, Spain;
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), 28029 Madrid, Spain
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Lynn BCD, Chernyavskiy P, Gierach GL, Rosenberg PS. Decreasing Incidence of Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer in the United States: Trends by Race and Region. J Natl Cancer Inst 2021; 114:263-270. [PMID: 34508608 PMCID: PMC8826530 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djab186] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Revised: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Incidence of estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer, an aggressive subtype, is highest in US African American women and in Southern residents but has decreased overall since 1992. We assessed whether ER-negative breast cancer is decreasing in all age groups and cancer registries among non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic White (HW) women. Methods We analyzed 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) Program registries (12 for 1992-2016; 5 for 2000-2016) to assess NHW, NHB, and HW trends by ER status and age group (30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-69 years, 70-84 years). We used hierarchical age-period-cohort models that account for sparse data, which improve estimates to quantify between-registry heterogeneity in mean incidence rates and age-adjusted trends vs SEER overall. Results Overall, ER-negative incidence was highest in NHB, then NHW and HW women, and decreased from 1992-2016 in each age group and racial or ethnic group. The greatest decrease was for HW women aged 40-49 years, with an annual percent change of –3.5%/y (95% credible interval = −4.4%, −2.7%) averaged over registries. The trend heterogeneity was statistically significant in every race or ethnic and age group. Furthermore, the incidence relative risks by race or ethnicity compared with the race-specific SEER average were also statistically significantly heterogeneous across the majority of registries and age groups (62 of 68 strata). The greatest heterogeneity was seen in HW women, followed by NHB women, and the least in NHW women. Conclusions Decreasing ER-negative breast cancer incidence differs meaningfully by US region and age among NHB and HW women. Analytical studies including minority women from higher and lower incidence areas may provide insights into breast cancer racial disparities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brittny C Davis Lynn
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Pavel Chernyavskiy
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
| | - Gretchen L Gierach
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Philip S Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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Peng YT, Meng FT, Su SY, Chiang CJ, Yang YW, Lee WC. A Survivorship-Period-Cohort Model for Cancer Survival: Application to Liver Cancer in Taiwan, 1997-2016. Am J Epidemiol 2021; 190:1961-1968. [PMID: 33878172 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2020] [Revised: 04/15/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Monitoring survival in cancer is a common concern for patients, physicians, and public health researchers. The traditional cohort approach for monitoring cancer prognosis has a timeliness problem. In this paper, we propose a survivorship-period-cohort (SPC) model for examining the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort on cancer prognosis and for predicting future trends in cancer survival. We used the developed SPC model to evaluate the relative survival (RS) of patients with liver cancer in Taiwan (diagnosed from 1997 to 2016) and to predict future trends in RS by imputing incomplete follow-up data for recently diagnosed patient cohorts. We used cross-validation to select the extrapolation method and bootstrapping to estimate the 95% confidence interval for RS. We found that 5-year cumulative RS increased for both men and women with liver cancer diagnosed after 2003. For patients diagnosed before 2010, the 5-year cumulative RS rate for men was lower than that for women; thereafter, the rates were better for men than for women. The SPC model can help elucidate the effects of survivorship, period, and year-of-diagnosis cohort effects on cancer prognosis. Moreover, the SPC model can be used to monitor cancer prognosis in real time and predict future trends; thus, we recommend its use.
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Miller KD, Siegel RL, Liu B, Zhu L, Zou J, Jemal A, Feuer EJ, Chen HS. Updated Methodology for Projecting U.S.- and State-Level Cancer Counts for the Current Calendar Year: Part II: Evaluation of Incidence and Mortality Projection Methods. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2021; 30:1993-2000. [PMID: 34404684 DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.epi-20-1780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2021] [Revised: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The American Cancer Society (ACS) and the NCI collaborate every 5 to 8 years to update the methods for estimating the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in the current year for the U.S. and individual states. Herein, we compare our current projection methodology with the next generation of statistical models. METHODS A validation study was conducted comparing current projection methods (vector autoregression for incidence; Joinpoint regression for mortality) with the Bayes state-space method and novel Joinpoint algorithms. Incidence data from 1996-2010 were projected to 2014 using two inputs: modeled data and observed data with modeled where observed were missing. For mortality, observed data from 1995 to 2009, 1996 to 2010, 1997 to 2011, and 1998 to 2012, each projected 3 years forward to 2012 to 2015. Projection methods were evaluated using the average absolute relative deviation (AARD) between observed counts (2014 for incidence, 2012-2015 for mortality) and estimates for 47 cancer sites nationally and 21 sites by state. RESULTS A novel Joinpoint model provided a good fit for both incidence and mortality, particularly for the most common cancers in the U.S. Notably, the AARD for cancers with cases in 2014 exceeding 49,000 for this model was 3.4%, nearly half that of the current method (6.3%). CONCLUSIONS A data-driven Joinpoint algorithm had versatile performance at the national and state levels and will replace the ACS's current methods. IMPACT This methodology provides estimates of cancer data that are not available for the current year, thus continuing to fill an important gap for advocacy, research, and public health planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly D Miller
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Kennesaw, Georgia.
| | - Rebecca L Siegel
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Kennesaw, Georgia
| | - Benmei Liu
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Li Zhu
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Joe Zou
- Information Management Services, Inc., Rockville, Maryland
| | - Ahmedin Jemal
- Surveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Kennesaw, Georgia
| | - Eric J Feuer
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Huann-Sheng Chen
- Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
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Martial NT, Mubarik S, Yu C. Long-term trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in four central African countries. Sci Rep 2021; 11:16624. [PMID: 34404835 PMCID: PMC8371097 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-95967-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2021] [Accepted: 07/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the knowledge about the current patterns is valuable for policymaking to decrease the TB burden. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we used a Joinpoint regression analysis to examine the variations in the trends of TB incidence and mortality, and the age-period-cohort statistical model to evaluate their risks associated with age, period, and cohort in males and females from Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In the four countries, TB incidence and mortality rates displayed decreasing trends in men and women; except for the males from DRC that recorded an almost steady pattern in the trend of TB incidence between 1990 and 2019. TB incidence and mortality rates decreased according to the overall annual percentage changes over the adjusted age category in men and women of the four countries, and CAM registered the highest decrease. Although TB incidence and mortality rates increased with age between 1990 and 2019, the male gender was mainly associated with the upward behaviors of TB incidence rates, and the female gender association was with the upward behaviors of TB mortality rates. Males and females aged between 15–54 and 15–49 years old were evaluated as the population at high risks of TB incidence and mortality respectively in CAM, CAR, Chad, and DRC. The period and cohort relative risks (RRs) both declined in men and women of the four countries although there were some upward behaviors in their trends. Relatively to the period and cohort RRs, females and males from CAM recorded the most significant decrease compared to the rest of the countries. New public health approaches and policies towards young adults and adults, and a particular focus on elderlies’ health and life conditions should be adopted in CAM, CAR, DRC, and Chad to rapidly decrease TB incidence and mortality in both genders of the four countries.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sumaira Mubarik
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
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Wu J, Xiao F, Zheng Y, Lin Y, Wang HL. Worldwide trend in human papillomavirus-attributable cancer incidence rates between 1990 and 2012 and Bayesian projection to 2030. Cancer 2021; 127:3172-3182. [PMID: 33974715 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.33628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is a paucity of global comparative trend analyses of all human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancers. In addition, most analyses by international sources only describe past trends; few studies have projected the future trend of HPV-attributable cancers. METHODS Data were used from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence by cancer site, age, and sex, as well as corresponding populations. Age-standardized HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates of each country up to 2030. RESULTS A significant but small decreasing trend worldwide in the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate was observed with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.3 (95% CI, -0.6 to -0.1). Notably, Uganda had a consistently increasing trend of HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate, with an AAPC of 1.7 (95% CI, 0.6-2.9). U-shaped trends were observed in some high-income countries because of a recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers. Most countries experience a decreasing or stable trend in HPV-attributable cancers incidence rates between 1990 and 2030. However, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Costa Rica, and Uganda will have an increasing trend during the projection period. CONCLUSIONS Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention. LAY SUMMARY Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Wu
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Fenqiang Xiao
- Department of Emergency Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yang Zheng
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yushi Lin
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Hong-Liang Wang
- Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Interventional Treatment Center, Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
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Bhala S, Stewart DR, Kennerley V, Petkov VI, Rosenberg PS, Best AF. Incidence of Benign Meningiomas in the United States: Current and Future Trends. JNCI Cancer Spectr 2021; 5:pkab035. [PMID: 34250440 DOI: 10.1093/jncics/pkab035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2021] [Revised: 03/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Benign meningiomas are the most frequently reported central nervous system tumors in the United States, with increasing incidence in past decades. However, the future trajectory of this neoplasm remains unclear. Methods We analyzed benign meningioma incidence of cases identified by any means (eg, radiographically with or without microscopic confirmation) in US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registries among groups aged 35 to 84 years during 2004-2017 by sex and race and ethnicity using age-period-cohort models. We employed age-period-cohort forecasting models to glean insights regarding the etiology, distribution, and anticipated future (2018-2027) public health impact of this neoplasm. Results In all groups, meningioma incidence overall increased through 2010, then stabilized. Temporal declines were statistically significant overall and in most groups. JoinPoint analysis of cohort rate-ratios identified substantial acceleration in White men born after 1963 (from 1.1% to 3.2% per birth year); cohort rate-ratios were stable or increasing in all groups and all birth cohorts. We forecast that meningioma incidence through 2027 will remain stable or decrease among groups aged 55-84 years but remain similar to current levels among groups aged 35-54 years. The case count of total meningioma burden in 2027 is expected to be approximately 30 470, similar to the expected case count of 27 830 in 2018. Conclusions Between 2004 and 2017, overall incidence of benign meningioma increased and then stabilized or declined. For 2018-2027, our forecast is incidence will remain generally stable in younger age groups but decrease in older age groups. Nonetheless, the total future burden will remain similar to current levels because the population is aging.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonia Bhala
- Clinical Genetics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Douglas R Stewart
- Clinical Genetics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Victoria Kennerley
- Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Valentina I Petkov
- Surveillance Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Philip S Rosenberg
- Biostatistics Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
| | - Ana F Best
- Biostatistics Branch, Biometric Research Program, Division of Cancer Treatment and Diagnosis, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Rockville, MD, USA
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Study of age specific lung cancer mortality trends in the US using functional data analysis. COMMUNICATIONS FOR STATISTICAL APPLICATIONS AND METHODS 2021. [DOI: 10.29220/csam.2021.28.2.119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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The Trend of HIV/AIDS Incidence and Risks Associated with Age, Period, and Birth Cohort in Four Central African Countries. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18052564. [PMID: 33806629 PMCID: PMC7967399 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18052564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2021] [Revised: 02/18/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
The HIV/AIDS incidence rates have decreased in African countries although the rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our study aimed to examine the long-term trend of the overall HIV/AIDS incidence rates in four countries of the central region of Africa, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The Age–Period–Cohort statistical model analysis was used to measure the trends of HIV/AIDS incidence rates in each of the four countries. HIV/AIDS incidence rates decreased slowly in Cameroon (CAM), Chad, and Central African Republic (CAR), but considerably in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 1990–2019. HIV/AIDS incidence rates in the four countries were at their peaks in the age group of 25–29 years. According to the age relative risks, individuals aged between 15 and 49 years old are at high risk of HIV/AIDS incidence in the four countries. The period and cohort relative risks have decreased in all four countries. Although CAM recorded an increase of 59.6% in the period relative risks (RRs) between 1990 and 1999, HIV/AIDS incidence has decreased dramatically in all four countries, especially after 2000. The decrease of the period RRs (relative risk) by nearly 20.6-folds and the decrease of the cohort RRs from 147.65 to almost 0.0034 in the DRC made it the country with the most significant decrease of the period and cohort RRs compared to the rest. HIV/AIDS incidence rates are decreasing in each of the four countries. Our study findings could provide solid ground for policymakers to promptly decrease HIV/AIDS incidence by strengthening the prevention policies to eliminate the public health threat of HIV/AIDS by 2030 as one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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Zhang Y, Luo G, Etxeberria J, Hao Y. Global Patterns and Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence: A Population-Based Study. J Thorac Oncol 2021; 16:933-944. [PMID: 33607309 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtho.2021.01.1626] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2020] [Revised: 01/24/2021] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Lung cancer (LC) has been the most common cancer worldwide for several decades. This study comprehensively examines recent geographic patterns and temporal trends in LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 in 43 countries and evaluates the effects of birth cohort and period on temporal trends. METHODS Data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were applied. RESULTS The age-standardized rate was highest in Turkey (69.3 per 100,000 person-years) for men and in Denmark (36.7) for women in the period 2008 to 2012. Sex disparities were noted in most countries. From 1978 to 2012, a total of 19 countries had significantly declining trends among men, whereas 26 countries had significantly increasing trends among women (all p < 0.05). Quasi-reversed V-shaped and U-shaped incidence rate ratio trends indicating birth cohort effects were detected in 26 countries for men, with the highest risks mainly occurring in the 1930 to 1950 birth cohorts. However, the risks among recent generations have moderately increased in the People's Republic of China and Japan for men and sharply increased in Lithuania, Belarus, and Republic of Korea for women. Incidence rate ratio increases were steep among earlier birth cohorts and gradual among the post-1930s cohorts in 15 countries for women. Period effects were more evident than birth cohort effects in five countries for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS Disparities in LC incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. Our findings identified high-risk target populations for primary prevention to reduce the LC incidence and highlighted the urgent need for etiologic studies to identify the reasons for pronounced cohort-specific risk increases in certain countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanting Zhang
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Ganfeng Luo
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China
| | - Jaione Etxeberria
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Mathematics, Public University of Navarre, Pamplona, Spain; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics (INAMAT2), Public University of Navarre, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Yuantao Hao
- Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China; Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
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Trends in the Burden of Untreated Caries of Permanent Teeth in China, 1993-2017: An Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study. Am J Prev Med 2020; 59:896-903. [PMID: 33153836 DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2020] [Revised: 06/03/2020] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION This study aims to identify the trends in incidence and prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth in China during 1993-2017. METHODS Data representing >31 billion person-years of observation from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017 were analyzed. Age-period-cohort modeling was performed to investigate the trends in untreated caries that may be of value to policymakers. Analyses were conducted in 2019-2020. RESULTS Prevalence of untreated caries in permanent teeth decreased steadily before 2010; after which, an increasing trend was noted without the signs of plateauing (age-adjusted annual percentage change, 1993-2017: -0.54%, 95% CI= -0.75%, -0.33%; declining period RR, 1993-2017: p=6.33 × 10-9; declining cohort RR, 1993-2017: p=3.46 × 10-6). Although untreated caries prevalence declined overall among multiple age groups (p<0.05), an increase in prevalence after 2010 was noted. This was driven by the deteriorating oral health condition in recent birth cohorts aged <25 years. Estimates of the longitudinal age trend (incidence: -0.013, 95% CI= -0.015, -0.011; prevalence: -0.0038, 95% CI= -0.0060, -0.0015) suggested that the highest untreated caries incidence and prevalence rate were both observed among young adults aged 20-24 years. No differences between incidence and prevalence of untreated caries were observed among adults aged >55 years (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS The increased burden of untreated caries in China after 2010 is driven by those aged <25 years. Untreated caries data from the Global Burden of Disease study are a valid complement to the data from the Chinese National Oral Health Epidemiology Surveys.
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O'Brien RM. A simplified approach for establishing estimable functions in fixed effect age-period-cohort multiple classification models. Stat Med 2020; 40:1160-1171. [PMID: 33258188 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2020] [Revised: 11/02/2020] [Accepted: 11/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Estimable functions play an important role in learning about certain aspects of the impact of ages, periods, and cohorts in age-period-cohort multiple classification (APCMC) models. The advantage of these estimates is that they are unbiased estimates of, for example, the deviations of age, period, and cohort effects from their linear trends, or changes in the linear trends of cohort effects within cohorts, or the residuals of fixed effect APCMC models. If the fixed effect APCMC model contains the relevant variables (is well specified), these estimable functions are unbiased estimates of functions of the parameters that generated the dependent variable data, even though the parameters that generated that data are not identified. I provide a simplified approach to establishing which functions are estimable in fixed effect APCMC models that provides an intuitive understanding of estimable functions by showing clearly and simply why they are estimable. This approach involves the partitioning of the age, period, and cohort effects into linear components and deviations from the linear components; the use of the "line of solutions"; and of the "extended null vector."
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Affiliation(s)
- Robert M O'Brien
- Department of Sociology, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA
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Chernyavskiy P, Little MP, Rosenberg PS. Spatially varying age-period-cohort analysis with application to US mortality, 2002-2016. Biostatistics 2020; 21:845-859. [PMID: 31030216 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxz009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2018] [Revised: 02/08/2019] [Accepted: 03/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Many public health databases index disease counts by age groups and calendar periods within geographic regions (e.g., states, districts, or counties). Issues around relative risk estimation in small areas are well-studied; however, estimating trend parameters that vary across geographic regions has received less attention. Additionally, small counts (e.g., $<10$) in most publicly accessible databases are censored, further complicating age-period-cohort (APC) analysis in small areas. Here, we present a novel APC model with left-censoring and spatially varying intercept and trends, estimated with correlations among contiguous geographic regions. Like traditional models, our model captures population-scale trends, but it can also be used to characterize geographic disparities in relative risk and age-adjusted trends over time. To specify the joint distribution of our three spatially varying parameters, we adapt the generalized multivariate conditional autoregressive prior, previously used for multivariate disease mapping. Specified in this manner, region-specific parameters are correlated spatially, and also to one another. Estimation is performed using the No-U-Turn Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler in Stan. We conduct a simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model relative to the standard model, and conclude with an application to US state-level opioid overdose mortality in men and women aged 15-64 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pavel Chernyavskiy
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, WY 82071-3036, USA and Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Dr., Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Mark P Little
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Dr., Rockville, MD 20850, USA
| | - Philip S Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 9609 Medical Center Dr., Rockville, MD 20850, USA
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