Composite End Points in Clinical Research

Comparing Analytical Methods for Composite End Points in Clinical Trials: Insights from the Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Trial

BACKGROUND

In VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), participants with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction, vericiguat decreased the primary composite outcome (time to first HF hospitalization [HFH] or cardiovascular death [CVD]) (897 events) compared with placebo (972 events) (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.98; P = .02). In this prespecified secondary analysis, we applied the weighted composite end point (WCE) and the win ratio (WR) methods to provide complementary assessments of treatment effect.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The WCE method estimated the mean HFH-adjusted survival based on prespecified weights from a Delphi panel of the VICTORIA executive committee and national leaders: mild (weight per event, 0.39), moderate (0.5), or severe (0.67) HFH, and CVD (1.0). The unmatched WR was estimated for the descending hierarchy of CVD, then recurrent HFH. The WCE used all 3412 primary clinical events: 875 severe HFH (vericiguat, 416/ placebo, 459), 1614 moderate HFH (767/847), 68 mild HFH (38/30), and 855 CVD (414/441). Improved HFH-adjusted survival occurred with vericiguat (mean 78.2% vs 75.6%, difference 2.4%, 95% CI, 1.7%-3.2%, P < .0001). Based on a comparison of 6,375,624 pairs, the WR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, P = .01) also indicated improved clinical outcomes with vericiguat.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the WCE and WR methods were consistent with the primary analysis of the time to first HFH or CVD. Although both WCE and WR assessed recurrent events, the WCE allowed inclusion of all recurrent events, insights on the severity of HFH events, and an absolute measure of the participant-treatment experience. This approach complements conventional assessment, better informing consumers of new therapeutics and future trial designs.

Integrating liver endpoints in clinical trials of cardiovascular and kidney disease

The intersection of cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorders and chronic kidney disease represents a complex clinical picture challenging healthcare systems worldwide. Metabolic-dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) often manifests sequentially or concomitantly with these diseases, and may share underlying mechanisms and risk factors. Growing evidence suggests that new therapies could have benefits across these diseases, but trial sponsors and investigators tend to be reluctant to include patients with comorbidities-particularly liver diseases-in clinical trials. In this Perspective, we call for inclusion of patients with MASLD and measurement of liver outcomes in cardio-kidney-metabolic trials, when data suggest mechanistically plausible benefits and liver and cardiovascular safety. We discuss the implications of this new paradigm for clinical trial design and considerations for regulatory approval. Finally, we outline the challenges to implementing such an approach and provide recommendations for future clinical trial conduct.

Clinical trial design, end-points, and emerging therapies in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Clinical trials in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) have led to the approval of several effective treatments that improve symptoms, exercise capacity and clinical outcomes. In phase 3 clinical trials, primary end-points must reflect how a patient "feels, functions or survives". In a rare disease like PAH, with an ever-growing number of treatment options and numerous candidate therapies being studied, future clinical trials are now faced with challenges related to sample size requirements, efficiency and demonstration of incremental benefit on traditional end-points in patients receiving background therapy with multiple drugs. Novel clinical trial end-points, innovative trial designs and statistical approaches and new technologies may be potential solutions to tackle the challenges facing future PAH trials, but these must be acceptable to patients and regulatory bodies while preserving methodological rigour. In this World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension task force article, we address emerging trial end-points and designs, biomarkers and surrogate end-point validation, the concept of disease modification, challenges and opportunities to address diversity and representativeness, and the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence in PAH clinical trials.

Longitudinal associations of an exposome score with serum metabolites from childhood to adolescence

Environmental and lifestyle factors, including air pollution, impaired diet, and low physical activity, have been associated with cardiometabolic risk factors in childhood and adolescence. However, environmental and lifestyle exposures do not exert their physiological effects in isolation. This study investigated associations between an exposome score to measure the impact of multiple exposures, including diet, physical activity, sleep duration, air pollution, and socioeconomic status, and serum metabolites measured using LC-MS and NMR, compared to the individual components of the score. A general population of 504 children aged 6-9 years at baseline was followed up for eight years. Data were analysed with linear mixed-effects models using the R software. The exposome score was associated with 31 metabolites, of which 12 metabolites were not associated with any individual exposure category. These findings highlight the value of a composite score to predict metabolic changes associated with multiple environmental and lifestyle exposures since childhood.

Application of the Estimand Framework to Anesthesia Trials

SUMMARY

Events occurring after randomization, such as use of rescue medication, treatment discontinuation, or death, are common in randomized trials. These events can change either the existence or interpretation of the outcome of interest. However, appropriate handling of these intercurrent events is often unclear. The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9(R1) addendum introduced the estimand framework, which aligns trial objectives with the design, conduct, statistical analysis, and interpretation of results. This article describes how the estimand framework can be used in anesthesia trials to precisely define the treatment effect to be estimated, key attributes of an estimand, common intercurrent events in anesthesia trials with strategies for handling them, and use of the estimand framework in a hypothetical anesthesia trial on postoperative delirium. When planning anesthesia trials, clearly defining the estimand is vital to ensure that what is being estimated is clearly understood, is clinically relevant, and helps answer the clinical questions of interest.

MASLD and MASH at the crossroads of hepatology trials and cardiorenal metabolic trials

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is a worldwide public health problem, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Patients with SLD are at increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events, type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease. Conversely, patients with cardiometabolic conditions have a high prevalence of SLD. In addition to epidemiological evidence linking many of these conditions, there is evidence of shared pathophysiological processes. In December 2022, a unique multi-stakeholder, multi-specialty meeting, called MOSAIC (Metabolic multi Organ Science Accelerating Innovation in Clinical Trials) was convened to foster collaboration across metabolic, hepatology, nephrology and CV disorders. One of the goals of the meeting was to consider approaches to drug development that would speed regulatory approval of treatments for multiple disorders by combining liver and cardiorenal endpoints within a single study. Non-invasive tests, including biomarkers and imaging, are needed in hepatic and cardiorenal trials. They can be used as trial endpoints, to enrich trial populations, to diagnose and risk stratify patients and to assess treatment efficacy and safety. Although they are used in proof of concept and phase 2 trials, they are often not acceptable for regulatory approval of therapies. The challenge is defining the optimal combination of biomarkers, imaging and morbidity/mortality outcomes and ensuring that they are included in future trials while minimizing the burden on patients, trialists and trial sponsors. This paper provides an overview of some of the wide array of CV, liver and kidney measurements that were discussed at the MOSAIC meeting.

Evidence-based medicine or statistically manipulated medicine? Are we slaves to the P-value?

First popularized almost a century ago in epidemiologic research by Ronald Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, the P-value has become perhaps the most misunderstood and even misused statistical value or descriptor. Indeed, modern clinical research has now come to be centered around and guided by an arbitrary P-value of <0.05 as a magical threshold for significance, so much so that experimental design, reporting of experimental findings, and interpretation and adoption of such findings have become largely dependent on this "significant" P-value. This has given rise to multiple biases in the overall body of biomedical literature that threatens the very validity of clinical research. Ultimately, a drive toward reporting a "significant" P-value (by various statistical manipulations) risks creating a falsely positive body of science, leading to (i) wasted resources in pursuing fruitless research and (ii) futile or even harmful policies/therapeutic recommendations. This article reviews the history of the P-value, the conceptual basis of P-value in the context of hypothesis testing and challenges in critically appraising clinical evidence vis-à-vis the P-value. This review is aimed at raising awareness of the pitfalls of this rigid observation of the threshold of statistical significance when evaluating clinical trials and to generate discussion regarding whether the scientific body needs a rethink about how we decide clinical significance.

The value-based healthcare approach to haemophilia: Development of outcome measures for the evaluation of care of people with haemophilia

INTRODUCTION

Considering the advances in haemophilia management and treatment observed in the last decades, a new set of value-based outcome indicators is needed to assess the quality of care and the impact of these medical innovations.

AIM

The Value-Based Healthcare in Haemophilia project aimed to define a set of clinical outcome indicators (COIs) and patient-reported outcome indicators (PROIs) to assess quality of care in haemophilia in high-income countries with a value-based approach to inform and guide the decision-making process.

METHODS

A Value-based healthcare approach based on the available literature, current guidelines and the involvement of a multidisciplinary group of experts was applied to generate a set of indicators to assess the quality of care of haemophilia.

RESULTS

A final list of three COIs and five PROIs was created and validated. The identified COIs focus on two domains: musculoskeletal health and function, and safety. The identified PROIs cover five domains: bleeding frequency, pain, mobility and physical activities, Health-Related Quality of Life and satisfaction. Finally, two composite outcomes, one based on COIs, and one based on PROIs, were proposed as synthetic outcome indicators of quality of care.

CONCLUSION

The presented standard set of health outcome indicators provides the basis for harmonised longitudinal and cross-sectional monitoring and comparison. The implementation of this value-based approach would enable a more robust assessment of quality of care in haemophilia, within a framework of continuous treatment improvements with potential added value for patients. Moreover, proposed COIs and PROIs should be reviewed and updated routinely.

Association of Periodic Limb Movements and Obstructive Sleep Apnea With Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Obstructive sleep apnea is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent studies have also linked periodic limb movements during sleep to CVD. We aimed to determine whether periodic limb movements during sleep and obstructive sleep apnea are independent or synergistic factors for CVD events or death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined data from 1049 US veterans with an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) <30 events/hour. The primary outcome was incident CVD or death. Cox proportional hazards regression assessed the relationships between the AHI, periodic limb movement index (PLMI), and the AHI×PLMI interaction with the primary outcome. We then examined whether AHI and PLMI were associated with primary outcome after adjustment for age, sex, race and ethnicity, obesity, baseline risk of mortality, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. During a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 237 of 1049 participants developed incident CVD or died. Unadjusted analyses showed an increased risk of the primary outcome with every 10-event/hour increase in PLMI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.13]) and AHI (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.01- 1.37]). Assessment associations of AHI and PLMI and their interaction with the primary outcome revealed no significant interaction between PLMI and AHI. In fully adjusted analyses, PLMI, but not AHI, was associated with an increased risk of primary outcome: HR of 1.05 (95% CI, 1.00-1.09) per every 10 events/hour. Results were similar after adjusting with Framingham risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed periodic limb movements during sleep as a risk factor for incident CVD or death among those who had AHI <30 events/hour, without synergistic association between periodic limb movements during sleep and obstructive sleep apnea.

A Surgical Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) Reveals Complex Relationships Between Race/Ethnicity, Insurance Type, and Neighborhood Deprivation

OBJECTIVE

Develop an ordinal Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) for surgical outcomes to examine complex associations of Social Determinants of Health.

BACKGROUND

Studies focused on single or binary composite outcomes may not detect health disparities.

METHODS

Three health care system cohort study using NSQIP (2013-2019) linked with EHR and risk-adjusted for frailty, preoperative acute serious conditions (PASC), case status and operative stress assessing associations of multilevel Social Determinants of Health of race/ethnicity, insurance type (Private 13,957; Medicare 15,198; Medicaid 2835; Uninsured 2963) and Area Deprivation Index (ADI) on DOOR and the binary Textbook Outcomes (TO).

RESULTS

Patients living in highly deprived neighborhoods (ADI>85) had higher odds of PASC [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=1.13, CI=1.02-1.25, P <0.001] and urgent/emergent cases (aOR=1.23, CI=1.16-1.31, P <0.001). Increased odds of higher/less desirable DOOR scores were associated with patients identifying as Black versus White and on Medicare, Medicaid or Uninsured versus Private insurance. Patients with ADI>85 had lower odds of TO (aOR=0.91, CI=0.85-0.97, P =0.006) until adjusting for insurance. In contrast, patients with ADI>85 had increased odds of higher DOOR (aOR=1.07, CI=1.01-1.14, P <0.021) after adjusting for insurance but similar odds after adjusting for PASC and urgent/emergent cases.

CONCLUSIONS

DOOR revealed complex interactions between race/ethnicity, insurance type and neighborhood deprivation. ADI>85 was associated with higher odds of worse DOOR outcomes while TO failed to capture the effect of ADI. Our results suggest that presentation acuity is a critical determinant of worse outcomes in patients in highly deprived neighborhoods and without insurance. Including risk adjustment for living in deprived neighborhoods and urgent/emergent surgeries could improve the accuracy of quality metrics.

Perioperative adverse cardiac events and mortality after non-cardiac surgery: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Perioperative adverse cardiac events (PACE), a composite of myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, congestive heart failure, arrhythmic attack, acute pulmonary embolism, cardiac arrest, and stroke during 30-day postoperative period, is associated with long-term mortality, but with limited clinical evidence. We compared long-term mortality with PACE using data from nationwide multicenter electronic health records.

METHODS

Data from 7 hospitals, converted to Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model, were used. We extracted records of 277,787 adult patients over 18 years old undergoing non-cardiac surgery for the first time at the hospital and had medical records for more than 180 days before surgery. We performed propensity score matching and then an aggregated meta‑analysis.

RESULTS

After 1:4 propensity score matching, 7,970 patients with PACE and 28,807 patients without PACE were matched. The meta‑analysis showed that PACE was associated with higher one-year mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.33, 95% CI [1.10, 1.60], P = 0.005) and higher three-year mortality (HR: 1.18, 95% CI [1.01, 1.38], P = 0.038). In subgroup analysis, the risk of one-year mortality by PACE became greater with higher-risk surgical procedures (HR: 1.20, 95% CI [1.04, 1.39], P = 0.020 for low-risk surgery; HR: 1.69, 95% CI [1.45, 1.96], P < 0.001 for intermediate-risk; and HR: 2.38, 95% CI [1.47, 3.86], P = 0.034 for high-risk).

CONCLUSIONS

A nationwide multicenter study showed that PACE was significantly associated with increased one-year mortality. This association was stronger in high-risk surgery, older, male, and chronic kidney disease subgroups. Further studies to improve mortality associated with PACE are needed.

Proteomics for heart failure risk stratification: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with persistently high mortality. High-throughput proteomic technologies offer new opportunities to improve HF risk stratification, but their contribution remains to be clearly defined. We aimed to systematically review prognostic studies using high-throughput proteomics to identify protein signatures associated with HF mortality.

METHODS

We searched four databases and two clinical trial registries for articles published from 2012 to 2023. HF proteomics studies measuring high numbers of proteins using aptamer or antibody-based affinity platforms on human plasma or serum with outcomes of all-cause or cardiovascular death were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A third reviewer resolved conflicts. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure tool.

RESULTS

Out of 5131 unique articles identified, nine articles were included in the review. The nine studies were observational; three used the aptamer platform, and six used the antibody platform. We found considerable heterogeneity across studies in measurement panels, HF definitions, ejection fraction categorization, follow-up duration, and outcome definitions, and a lack of risk estimates for most protein associations. Hence, we proceeded with a systematic review rather than a meta-analysis. In two comparable aptamer studies in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, 21 proteins were identified in common for the association with all-cause death. Among these, one protein, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 was also reported in an antibody study on HFrEF and for the association with CV death. We proposed standardized reporting criteria to facilitate the interpretation of future studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In this systematic review of nine studies evaluating the association of proteomics with mortality in HF, we identified a limited number of proteins common across several studies. Heterogeneity across studies compromised drawing broad inferences, underscoring the importance of standardized approaches to reporting.

Optimization of the MACE endpoint composition to increase power in studies of lipid-lowering therapies-a model-based meta-analysis

Aims

To develop a model-informed methodology for the optimization of the Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) composite endpoint, based on a model-based meta-analysis across anti-hypercholesterolemia trials of statin and anti-PCSK9 drugs.

Methods and results

Mixed-effects meta-regression modeling of stand-alone MACE outcomes was performed, with therapy type, population demographics, baseline and change over time in lipid biomarkers as predictors. Randomized clinical trials up to June 28, 2022, of either statins or anti-PCSK9 therapies were identified through a systematic review process in PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov databases. In total, 54 studies (270,471 patients) were collected, reporting 15 different single cardiovascular events. Treatment-mediated decrease in low density lipoprotein cholesterol, baseline levels of remnant and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol as well as non-lipid population characteristics and type of therapy were identified as significant covariates for 10 of the 15 outcomes. The required sample size per composite 3- and 4-point MACE endpoint was calculated based on the estimated treatment effects in a population and frequencies of the incorporated events in the control group, trial duration, and uncertainty in model parameters.

Conclusion

A quantitative tool was developed and used to benchmark different compositions of 3- and 4-point MACE for statins and anti-PCSK9 therapies, based on the minimum population size required to achieve statistical significance in relative risk reduction, following meta-regression modeling of the single MACE components. The approach we developed may be applied towards the optimization of the design of future trials in dyslipidemia disorders as well as in other therapeutic areas.

Dissecting the restricted mean time in favor of treatment

The restricted mean time in favor (RMT-IF) summarizes the treatment effect on a hierarchical composite endpoint with mortality at the top. Its crude decomposition into "stage-wise effects," i.e., the net average time gained by the treatment prior to each component event, does not reveal the patient state in which the extra time is spent. To obtain this information, we break each stage-wise effect into subcomponents according to the specific state to which the reference condition is improved. After re-expressing the subcomponents as functionals of the marginal survival functions of outcome events, we estimate them conveniently by plugging in the Kaplan -- Meier estimators. Their robust variance matrices allow us to construct joint tests on the decomposed units, which are particularly powerful against component-wise differential treatment effects. By reanalyzing a cancer trial and a cardiovascular trial, we acquire new insights into the quality and composition of the extra survival times, as well as the extra time with fewer hospitalizations, gained by the treatment in question. The proposed methods are implemented in the rmt package freely available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Ascertainment and Statistical Issues for Randomized Trials of Cardiovascular Interventions for Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

There has been considerable progress in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease, reducing the population burden of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Recently, some randomized trials, including the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), have suggested that improvements in cardiovascular risk factors may also slow cognitive decline and reduce the eventual development of dementia. Unfortunately, the randomized trial template that has been used repeatedly to successfully demonstrate reductions in major adverse cardiac events faces several design and analytic obstacles when applied in the context of cognitive decline and dementia. Here, we review these obstacles, motivated by SPRINT and the context of selecting an appropriate cognitive end point for future preventive randomized trials. A few options are available, spanning neuropsychological test scores or composites reflecting specific domains of cognitive function, adjudicated cognitive impairment, or potentially physiological biomarkers. This choice entails considerations around statistical power, modes of ascertainment, the clinical relevance of treatment effects, a myriad of statistical issues (interval censoring, missing data, the competing risk of death, practice effects, etc), as well as ethical considerations around equipoise. Collectively, these considerations indicate that trials aiming to mitigate the cardiovascular contribution to cognitive decline and dementia will generally need to be large, inclusive of a wide age range of older adults, and with multiple years of follow-up.

Feasibility of advanced composite endpoint analysis: Post-hoc insights from the vitamin intervention for stroke prevention randomized control trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Stroke is a major cause of mortality and disability, highlighting the importance of prevention. Clinical trials play an important role in evaluating interventions that can maximize stroke prevention. Traditional composite endpoints (TCE) used in clinical trials have limitations, as they pool together events of varying clinical importance. Weighted composite endpoints (WCE) have emerged as a solution to address these limitations and provide more accurate assessments of outcomes. In this study, we investigate the use of WCE in a previously reported negative clinical trial for stroke prevention.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention (VISP) trial, which compared high dose and low dose multivitamin therapy. We utilized weighted methods to analyze time-to-event outcomes with censoring. The primary outcomes of interest were time to nonfatal stroke, nonfatal coronary events, and death. We calculated modified Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves for each intervention group. We also performed a modified log-rank test to assess significant differences based on the weighted KM curves. The analysis included 3668 VISP trial participants, and most remained event-free throughout the study period. The TCE KM curve showed no significant difference in outcomes between high dose and low dose groups. Similarly, the WCE KM curves, with different weights assigned to each outcome, did not reveal significant differences in outcomes between the studied groups.

CONCLUSION

This post-hoc analysis confirms the negative trial results of VISP and demonstrates the feasibility of using WCE in assessing nutrition-based interventions for stroke prevention.

Mobile Health-Technology-Integrated Care for Atrial Fibrillation: A Win Ratio Analysis from the mAFA-II Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

 The Mobile Health (mHealth) Technology for Improved Screening and Optimized Integrated Care in atrial fibrillation (AF) (mAFA-II) cluster randomized trial assessed the efficacy of an integrated care approach in improving the prognosis of AF patients. In this study, we provide a reanalysis of the trial outcomes using the win ratio (WR) approach.

METHODS

 The mAFA-II trial allocated patients to receive a mHealth-technology implemented Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway (mAFA intervention) or usual care. The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death, ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism, and rehospitalization. The efficacy of the mAFA intervention was analyzed according to the WR method using the unmatched pairs approach, with the components of the primary outcome analyzed hierarchically as follows: (1) all-cause death; (2) ischemic stroke or thromboembolism; (3) rehospitalization. Results were reported as WR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, we calculated win odds (WO) and 95% CI.

RESULTS

 A total of 3,324 patients were enrolled in the mAFA-II trial and included in this analysis (1,646 allocated to mAFA intervention and 1,678 to usual care). Among 2,761,988 unmatched pairs comparisons, the number of wins was higher in the mAFA intervention group, with a WR: 2.78 (95% CI: 1.85-4.17). WO confirmed the effect of mAFA intervention, although with a lower magnitude (WO: 1.06; 95% Cl: 1.04-1.08).

CONCLUSION

 In this posthoc WR analysis of the mAFA-II trial, a mHealth-technology-implemented integrated care approach was effective in reducing the risk of the primary composite outcome of all-cause death, ischemic stroke or thromboembolism, and rehospitalization, even when prioritizing fatal events.

Anakinra authorized to treat severe coronavirus disease 2019; Sepsis breakthrough or time to reflect?

Introduction

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced conditions for using recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (rhIL-1ra) to treat hospitalized patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and risk for progression. These decisions followed publication of the suPAR-guided Anakinra treatment for Validation of the risk and early Management OF seveRE respiratory failure by COVID-19 (SAVE- MORE) phase 3 clinical trial that yielded positive results.

Methods

We conducted a literature review and theoretical analysis of IL-1 blockade as a therapy to treat COVID-19. Using a stepwise analysis, we assessed clinical applicability of the SAVE-MORE results and evaluated conceptual support for interleukin-1 suppression as a suitable approach to COVID-19 treatment. This therapeutic approach was then examined as an example of inflammation-suppressing measures used to treat sepsis.

Results

Anakinra use as a COVID-19 therapy seems to rely on a view of pathogenesis that incorrectly reflects human disease. Since COVID-19 is an example of sepsis, COVID-19 benefit due to anti-inflammatory therapy contradicts an extensive history of unsuccessful clinical study. Repurposing rhIL-1ra to treat COVID-19 appears to exemplify a cycle followed by inflammation-suppressing sepsis treatments. A landscape of treatment failures is interrupted by a successful clinical trial. However, subsequent confirmatory study fails to replicate the positive data.

Discussion

We suggest further experimentation is not a promising pathway to discover game-changing sepsis therapies. A different kind of approach may be necessary.

Efficacy and safety of Panax notoginseng saponins (Xuesaitong) for patients with acute ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background: Stroke is the major cause of mortality and permanent disability and is associated with an astonishing economic burden worldwide. In the past few decades, accumulated evidence has indicated that Xuesaitong (XST) has therapeutic benefits in cases of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Our study aimed to provide the best current body of evidence of the efficacy and safety of XST for patients with AIS. Methods: This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched eight electronic databases from inception to 17 July 2023 for relevant RCTs. The investigators independently screened trials, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A meta-analysis was conducted using RevMan 5.3 and STATA 16.0 software. Results: In total, 46 RCTs involving 7,957 patients were included. The results showed that XST improved the long-term functional outcomes with lower modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores (MD = -0.67; 95% CI [-0.92 to -0.42]; p < 0.00001) and a higher proportion of functional independence (mRS ≤2) (RR = 1.08; 95% CI [1.05 to 1.12]; p < 0.00001). Low-quality evidence indicated that XST improved the activities of daily living (MD = 10.17; 95% CI [7.28 to 13.06]; p < 0.00001), improved the neurological impairment (MD = -3.39; 95% CI [-3.94 to -2.84]; p < 0.00001), and enhanced the total efficiency rate (RR = 1.19; 95% CI [1.15 to 1.23]; p < 0.00001). No significant difference was found in the all-cause mortality or incidence of adverse events between the XST and control groups. The certainty of evidence was estimated as moderate to very low. Conclusion: Presently, the administration of XST within 14 days of AIS is associated with favorable long-term functional outcomes. In addition, XST can improve activities of daily living, alleviate neurological deficits, and has shown good tolerability. However, the current evidence is too weak, and the confidence of evidence synthesis was restricted by the high risk of bias. Given the insufficient evidence, appropriately sized and powered RCTs investigating the efficacy and safety of XST for patients with AIS are warranted. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?RecordID=446208, CRD42023446208.

Generalized Pairwise Comparisons to Assess Treatment Effects: JACC Review Topic of the Week

A time-to-first-event composite endpoint analysis has well-known shortcomings in evaluating a treatment effect in cardiovascular clinical trials. It does not fully describe the clinical benefit of therapy because the severity of the events, events repeated over time, and clinically relevant nonsurvival outcomes cannot be considered. The generalized pairwise comparisons (GPC) method adds flexibility in defining the primary endpoint by including any number and type of outcomes that best capture the clinical benefit of a therapy as compared with standard of care. Clinically important outcomes, including bleeding severity, number of interventions, and quality of life, can easily be integrated in a single analysis. The treatment effect in GPC can be expressed by the net treatment benefit, the success odds, or the win ratio. This review provides guidance on the use of GPC and the choice of treatment effect measures for the analysis and reporting of cardiovascular trials.

Making Sense of Composite Endpoints in Clinical Research

Multiple drugs currently used in clinical practice have been approved by regulatory agencies based on studies that utilize composite endpoints. Composite endpoints are appealing because they reduce sample size requirements, follow-up periods, and costs. However, interpreting composite endpoints can be challenging, and their misuse is not uncommon. Incorrect interpretation of composite outcomes can lead to misleading conclusions that impact patient care. To correctly interpret composite outcomes, several important questions should be considered. Are the individual components of the composite outcome equally important to patients? Did the more and less important endpoints occur with similar frequency? Do the component endpoints exhibit similar relative risk reductions? If these questions receive affirmative answers, the use and interpretation of the composite endpoint would be appropriate. However, if any component of the composite endpoint fails to satisfy the aforementioned criteria, interpretation can become difficult, necessitating additional steps. Regulatory agencies acknowledge these challenges and have specific considerations when approving drugs based on studies employing composite endpoints. In conclusion, composite endpoints are valuable tools for evaluating the efficacy and net clinical benefit of interventions; however, cautious interpretation is advised.

Days alive and out of hospital at 30 days and outcomes of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

Days alive and out of hospital (DAOH) is a simple estimator based on the number of days not in hospital within a defined period. In cases of mortality within the period, DAOH is regarded as zero. It has not been validated solely in off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). This study aimed to demonstrate a correlation between DAOH and outcome of OPCAB. We identified 2211 OPCAB performed from January 2010 to August 2016. We calculated DAOH at 30 and 60 days. We generated a receiver-operating curve and compared outcomes. The median duration of hospital stay after OPCAB was 6 days. The median DAOH values at 30 and 60 days were 24 and 54 days. The estimated thresholds for 3-year mortality for DAOH at 30 and 60 days were 20 and 50 days. Three-year mortality was higher for short DAOH (1.2% vs. 5.7% and 1.1% vs. 5.6% DAOH at 30 and 60 days). After adjustment, the short DAOH 30 group showed significantly higher mortality during 3-year follow-up (hazard ratio 3.07; 95% confidence interval 1.45-6.52; p = 0.004). DAOH at 30 days after OPCAB showed a correlation with 3-year outcomes. DAOH 30 might be a reliable long-term outcome measure that can be obtained within 30 days after surgery.

Is Intention to Treat Still the Gold Standard or Should Health Technology Assessment Agencies Embrace a Broader Estimands Framework?: Insights and Perspectives From the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen on the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E9 (R1) Addendum

OBJECTIVES

The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9 (R1) addendum will have an important impact on the design and analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials, which represent crucial sources of evidence in health technology assessments, and on the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle in particular. This article brings together a task force of health economists and statisticians in academic institutes and the pharmaceutical industry, to examine the implications of the addendum from the perspective of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG) and to address the question of whether the ITT principle should be considered the gold standard for estimating treatment effects.

METHODS

We review the ITT principle, as introduced in the ICH E9 guideline. We then present an overview of the ICH E9 (R1) addendum and its estimand framework, highlighting its premise and the proposed strategies for handling intercurrent events, and examine some cases among submissions to IQWiG and NICE.

RESULTS

IQWiG and NICE appear to have diverging perspectives around the relevance of the ITT principle and, in particular, the acceptance of hypothetical strategies for estimating treatment effects, as suggested by examples where the sponsor proposed an alternative approach to the ITT principle when accounting for treatment switching for interventional oncology trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The ICH E9 (R1) addendum supports the use of methods that depart from the ITT principle. The relevance of estimands using these methods depends on the perspectives and objectives of payers. It is challenging to design a study that meets all stakeholders' research questions. Different estimands may serve to answer different relevant questions or decision problems.

Multiparametric Quantitative Imaging Biomarker as a Multivariate Descriptor of Health: A Roadmap

Multiparametric quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) offer distinct advantages over single, univariate descriptors because they provide a more complete measure of complex, multidimensional biological systems. In disease, where structural and functional disturbances occur across a multitude of subsystems, multivariate QIBs are needed to measure the extent of system malfunction. This paper, the first Use Case in a series of articles on multiparameter imaging biomarkers, considers multiple QIBs as a multidimensional vector to represent all relevant disease constructs more completely. The approach proposed offers several advantages over QIBs as multiple endpoints and avoids combining them into a single composite that obscures the medical meaning of the individual measurements. We focus on establishing statistically rigorous methods to create a single, simultaneous measure from multiple QIBs that preserves the sensitivity of each univariate QIB while incorporating the correlation among QIBs. Details are provided for metrological methods to quantify the technical performance. Methods to reduce the set of QIBs, test the superiority of the mp-QIB model to any univariate QIB model, and design study strategies for generating precision and validity claims are also provided. QIBs of Alzheimer's Disease from the ADNI merge data set are used as a case study to illustrate the methods described.

Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative: A Milestone-Based Strategy to Monitor Parkinson's Disease Progression

BACKGROUND

Identifying a meaningful progression metric for Parkinson's disease (PD) that reflects heterogeneity remains a challenge.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the frequency and baseline predictors of progression to clinically relevant motor and non-motor PD milestones.

METHODS

Using data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) de novo PD cohort, we monitored 25 milestones across six domains ("walking and balance"; "motor complications"; "cognition"; "autonomic dysfunction"; "functional dependence"; "activities of daily living"). Milestones were intended to be severe enough to reflect meaningful disability. We assessed the proportion of participants reaching any milestone; evaluated which occurred most frequently; and conducted a time-to-first-event analysis exploring whether baseline characteristics were associated with progression.

RESULTS

Half of participants reached at least one milestone within five years. Milestones within the cognitive, functional dependence, and autonomic dysfunction domains were reached most often. Among participants who reached a milestone at an annual follow-up visit and remained active in the study, 82% continued to meet criteria for any milestone at one or more subsequent annual visits and 55% did so at the next annual visit. In multivariable analysis, baseline features predicting faster time to reaching a milestone included age (p < 0.0001), greater MDS-UPDRS total scores (p < 0.0001), higher GDS-15 depression scores (p = 0.0341), lower dopamine transporter binding (p = 0.0043), and lower CSF total α-synuclein levels (p = 0.0030). Symptomatic treatment was not significantly associated with reaching a milestone (p = 0.1639).

CONCLUSION

Clinically relevant milestones occur frequently, even in early PD. Milestones were significantly associated with baseline clinical and biological markers, but not with symptomatic treatment. Further studies are necessary to validate these results, further assess the stability of milestones, and explore translating them into an outcome measure suitable for observational and therapeutic studies.

Cardiac Adverse Events Associated With Chemo-Radiation Versus Chemotherapy for Resectable Stage III Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare Study

Background We compared cardiac outcomes for surgery-eligible patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer treated adjuvantly or neoadjuvantly with chemotherapy versus chemo-radiation therapy in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare database. Methods and Results Patients were age 66+, had stage IIIA/B resectable non-small-cell lung cancer diagnosed between 2007 and 2015, and received adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy or chemo-radiation within 121 days of diagnosis. Patients having chemo-radiation and chemotherapy only were propensity-score matched and followed from day 121 to first cardiac outcome, noncardiac death, radiation initiation by patients who received chemotherapy only, fee-for-service enrollment interruption, or December 31, 2016. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and competing risks subdistribution HRs were estimated. The primary outcome was the first of these severe cardiac events: acute myocardial infarction, other hospitalized ischemic heart disease, hospitalized heart failure, percutaneous coronary intervention/coronary artery bypass graft, cardiac death, or urgent/inpatient care for pericardial disease, conduction abnormality, valve disorder, or ischemic heart disease. With median follow-up of 13 months, 70 of 682 patients who received chemo-radiation (10.26%) and 43 of 682 matched patients who received chemotherapy only (6.30%) developed a severe cardiac event (P=0.008) with median time to first event 5.45 months. Chemo-radiation increased the rate of severe cardiac events (cause-specific HR: 1.62 [95% CI, 1.11-2.37] and subdistribution HR: 1.41 [95% CI, 0.97-2.04]). Cancer severity appeared greater among patients who received chemo-radiation (noncardiac death cause-specific HR, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.93-3.33] and subdistribution HR, 2.52 [95% CI, 1.90-3.33]). Conclusions Adding radiation therapy to chemotherapy is associated with an increased risk of severe cardiac events among patients with resectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer for whom survival benefit of radiation therapy is unclear.

Clinical trials in hepatitis D virus: Measuring success

Chronic hepatitis D infection results in the most severe form of chronic viral hepatitis but currently lacks effective treatment options. Therapy with pegylated interferon alpha is recommended for finite treatment duration by major liver societies. Still, it is plagued by low rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) and frequent relapses even if SVR is achieved. Recently, a wave of investigational therapies has come under evaluation, including bulevirtide, lonafarnib, pegylated interferon lambda, and REP-2139 creating excitement with this viral infection. However, there has been significant variability in the endpoints used to evaluate these therapeutics. One of the recently introduced endpoints is characterized by a decline in HDV RNA by 2 logs, with or without achieving an undetectable serum hepatitis D virus (HDV) RNA, as a marker of virologic response. Furthermore, this measure has been combined with alanine aminotransferase normalization, also known as a biochemical response, to formulate the primary endpoint of several late-stage studies. Per recent guidance by the US Food and Drug Administration, these should be surrogate endpoints that will ultimately portend long-term clinical benefits. These clinical benefits may include reducing the risk of progression to cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, and mortality. However, the optimal way to measure success in HDV clinical trials remains unknown and will continue to evolve.

Edaravone use in acute intracerebral hemorrhage: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background: Edaravone alleviates neurological deficits among patients with intracerebral hemorrhage; however, its effects on mortality and long-term functional outcomes remain unknown.

Objective: To assess clinical outcomes associated with edaravone initiated within 7 days of symptoms onset in intracerebral hemorrhage.

Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CiNii, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese VIP information, Wanfang Data, and SinoMed for relevant randomized controlled trials from their inception to 1 May 2021 and conducted a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42019147801). All-cause mortality and long-term functional outcomes were taken as the primary outcomes.

Results: A total of 38 randomized controlled trials including 3,454 participants with acute intracerebral hemorrhage were included. The selected articles were of poor quality. Meta-analysis revealed that edaravone could not reduce all-cause mortality [relative risk (RR) = 0.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.11–2.32); p = 0.38]. No studies reported on long-term functional outcomes in those trials. In addition, edaravone alleviated neurological deficits [mean difference (MD) = −5.44; 95% CI (−6.44 to −4.44); p<0.00001], improved the activities of daily living [MD = 8.44; 95% CI (7.65–9.23); p<0.00001], reduced the hematoma volume [MD = −4.71; 95% CI (−5.86 to −3.56); p<0.00001], and increased treatment response [RR = 1.26; 95% CI (1.22–1.31); p<0.00001]. In terms of safety outcome, there was no significant difference between the edaravone group and the control groups [RR = 1.67; 95% CI (0.92 to 3.06); p = 0.09].

Conclusion: Till date, edaravone does not associate with mortality reduction when initiated within 7 days of intracerebral hemorrhage onset. The effect of edaravone on long-term functional outcomes remains unknown due to lack of data. Although edaravone alleviated neurological deficits, improved activities of daily living, and reduced hematoma volume, we cautiously interpreted the results owing to the overall poor quality and high heterogeneity of the included trials. Presently, the results are insufficient to support edaravone as a routine treatment option for acute intracerebral hemorrhage.

Modern Approaches to the Interpretation of the Results of Large Randomized Clinical Trials

Modern approaches to interpreting the results of randomized trials, which can reduce the distortion of information when they are presented to a wide range of doctors, are discussed in the article. Data on the role of taking into account multiple comparisons in the planning and analysis of large randomized clinical trials are given. The validity and approaches to using a hierarchical approach to assessing the statistical significance of indicators (“endpoints”) in cases where, in accordance with a pre-adopted study protocol, several indicators are supposed to be evaluated are considered in detail. Approaches to interpreting the p value as well as 95% confidence intervals are considered. Particular attention is paid to the interpretation of the components of the main combined indicator, since when interpreting just such data, the presentation of the results of the study and the manipulation of doctors' opinions may be distorted. This is especially true for data on mortality and mortality from complications of cardiovascular diseases. Modern approaches to the analysis of research results using methods other than the usual Kaplan-Meier analysis, in particular, the method based on the calculation of the "win ratio" are discussed. Data obtained in modern clinical studies are given as examples.

Unstable Angina as a Component of Primary Composite Endpoints in Clinical Cardiovascular Trials: Pros and Cons

Background Unstable angina (UA) is a component of acute coronary syndrome that is only occasionally included in primary composite endpoints in clinical cardiovascular trials. The aim of this paper is to elucidate the potential benefits and disadvantages of including UA in such contexts. Summary UA comprises <10% of patients with acute coronary syndromes in contemporary settings. Based on the pathophysiological similarities, it is ideal as a part of a composite endpoint along with myocardial infarction (MI). By adding UA as a component of a primary composite endpoint, the number of events and feasibility of the trial should increase, thus decreasing size and costs of trials. Furthermore, UA has both economic and quality of life implications on a societal and an individual level. However, there are important challenges associated with the use of UA as an endpoint. With the introduction of high-sensitivity troponins, the number of individuals diagnosed with UA has decreased to rather low levels, with a reciprocal increase in the number of MI. In addition, UA is particularly challenging to define given the subjective assessment of the index symptoms, rendering a high risk of bias. To minimize bias, strict criteria are warranted, and events should be adjudicated by a blinded endpoint adjudication committee. Key messages UA should only be chosen as a component of a primary composite endpoint in cardiovascular trials after thoroughly evaluating the pros and cons. If it is chosen to include UA, appropriate precautions should be taken to minimize possible bias.

Cochrane systematic reviews on traditional Chinese medicine: What matters-the quantity or quality of evidence?

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews on traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) are constantly increasing. However, if these reviews are to be of practical value, the evidence needs to be relevant, valid, and adequately reported. Cochrane Systematic Reviews (CSRs) are considered as high-quality systematic reviews that can inform health care decision making. Our aim was to provide an overview of the scope, findings, quality and impact of CSRs on the benefits and harms associated with TCM interventions for the treatment and prevention of disease to provide new information for clinical practice and future research.

METHODS

The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was searched up to May 2021, and descriptive characteristics were extracted. The correspondence between the questions asked in the CSRs and the available evidence, conclusions and certainty of findings (according to GRADE assessment), methodological quality (AMSTAR 2), and impact (Altmetric Attention Score [AAS], total citations by guideline, and total citations in Web of Science [WoS]) of CSRs were extracted. Tabular and graphical summaries of these descriptive characteristics were constructed.

RESULTS

Of 104 CSRs on TCM identified, 70 diseases belonged to 16 disease systems and contained 1642 primary studies with 157,943 participants. Interventions included Chinese herbal medicine (n = 70), acupuncture (n = 28), TCM exercises (n = 4), and moxibustion (n = 2). Among 1642 primary studies, 662 studies included an intervention group treated with at least one TCM therapy and 980 studies included a combination of therapies. Promising outcomes from the 104 CSRs were divided into endpoint outcomes (34 diseases), doctor- or patient-reported outcomes (27 diseases), and surrogate outcomes (37 diseases). Despite the presence of promising outcomes, only 5/104 CSRs drew overall positive conclusions, 42 CSRs concluded the evidence was insufficient, and 54 failed to draw firm conclusions. GRADE assessments were reported in 41.3% of the CSRs, and the ratings were mostly low or very low. Comparing the questions asked and results obtained, there was frequently a lack of information about specific outcomes. Only 16 CSRs obtained results for all outcomes listed in the methods section. According to AMSTAR 2, 51 CSRs (49.0%) were of low quality. The total number of citations in the WoS was 2135 (mean ± SD: 20.8 ± 21.2), and 38.5% of the CSRs had been cited in guidelines 95 times.

CONCLUSION

Although TCM is commonly used, evidence of its effectiveness remains largely inconclusive. Rigorous high-quality trials are needed to support the performance of high-quality reviews and to increase the evidence base. It is critical to emphasize quality over quantity in future TCM research.

Composite Outcomes in Clinical Prediction Modeling: Are We Trying to Predict Apples and Oranges?

Composite outcomes are widely used in clinical research. Existing literature has considered the pros and cons of composite outcomes in clinical trials, but their extensive use in clinical prediction has received much less attention. Clinical prediction assists decision-making by directing patients with higher risks of adverse outcomes toward interventions that provide the greatest benefits to those at the greatest risk. In this article, we summarize our existing understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of composite outcomes, consider how these relate to clinical prediction, and highlight the problem of key predictors having markedly different associations with individual components of the composite outcome. We suggest that a "composite outcome fallacy" may occur when a clinical prediction model is based on strong associations between key predictors and one component of a composite outcome (such as mortality) and used to direct patients toward intervention when these predictors actually have an inverse association with a more relevant component of the composite outcome (such as the use of a lifesaving intervention). We propose that clinical prediction scores using composite outcomes should report their accuracy for key components of the composite outcome and examine for inconsistencies among predictor variables.

The impact of kidney function in patients on antithrombotic therapy: a post hoc subgroup analysis focusing on recurrent bleeding events from the AFIRE trial

BACKGROUND

The success of antithrombotic therapies is assessed based on thrombotic and bleeding events. Simultaneously assessing both kinds of events might be challenging, and recurrent bleeding events are often ignored. We tried to confirm the effects of kidney function on outcome events in patients undergoing antithrombotic therapy.

METHODS

As a post hoc subgroup analysis of the Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Events with Rivaroxaban in Patients with Stable Coronary Artery Disease (AFIRE) trial, a randomized clinical trial with a median follow-up of 36 months, patients were divided into high and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) groups with a cutoff value of 50 mL/min. The cumulative incidence of bleeding and crude incidence of recurrent bleeding per 100 patient-years were calculated. We used the Cox regression model with multiple failure time data for recurrent bleeding events.

RESULTS

Among 2092 patients, 1386 (66.3%) showed high eGFR. The cumulative bleeding events per 100 patients at 1 year were 5.4 and 6.2 in the high and low eGFR groups, respectively. The difference continued to increase over time. The hazard ratio for time to the first bleeding event in the high eGFR group was 0.875 (95% confidence interval 0.701-1.090, p = .234) and that for the first composite event was 0.723 (95% confidence interval 0.603-0.867, p < .000). The recurrent bleeding events per 100 person-years were 11.3 and 15.3 in the high and low eGFR groups, respectively, with a rate ratio of 0.738 (95% confidence interval 0.615-0.886, p = .001). During the observation period, the risk of bleeding changed with time. It peaked soon after the study enrollment in both groups. It decreased continuously in the high eGFR group but remained high in the low eGFR group.

CONCLUSIONS

We reaffirmed that kidney function affects bleeding events in patients on antithrombotic therapy, considering recurrent events. Patients should have detailed discussions with physicians regarding the possible bleeding events when continuing antithrombotic therapy, especially in patients with decreased kidney function.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN Clinical Trials Registry, UMIN000016612 . ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02642419 . Registered on 21 October 2015.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common arrhythmia, increases the risk of stroke.

OBJECTIVE

To review the evidence on screening for AF in adults without prior stroke to inform the US Preventive Services Task Force.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Cochrane Library, and trial registries through October 5, 2020; references, experts, and literature surveillance through October 31, 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of screening among asymptomatic persons without known AF or prior stroke; test accuracy studies; RCTs of anticoagulation among persons with AF; systematic reviews; and observational studies reporting harms.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers assessed titles/abstracts, full-text articles, and study quality and extracted data; when at least 3 similar studies were available, meta-analyses were conducted.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Detection of undiagnosed AF, test accuracy, mortality, stroke, stroke-related morbidity, and harms.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies (N = 113 784) were included. In 1 RCT (n = 28 768) of twice-daily electrocardiography (ECG) screening for 2 weeks, the likelihood of a composite end point (ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, systemic embolism, all-cause mortality, and hospitalization for bleeding) was lower in the screened group over 6.9 years (hazard ratio, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.92-1.00]; P = .045), but that study had numerous limitations. In 4 RCTs (n = 32 491), significantly more AF was detected with intermittent and continuous ECG screening compared with no screening (risk difference range, 1.0%-4.8%). Treatment with warfarin over a mean of 1.5 years in populations with clinical, mostly persistent AF was associated with fewer ischemic strokes (pooled risk ratio [RR], 0.32 [95% CI, 0.20-0.51]; 5 RCTs; n = 2415) and lower all-cause mortality (pooled RR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.50-0.93]) compared with placebo. Treatment with direct oral anticoagulants was also associated with lower incidence of stroke (adjusted odds ratios range, 0.32-0.44) in indirect comparisons with placebo. The pooled RR for major bleeding for warfarin compared with placebo was 1.8 (95% CI, 0.85-3.7; 5 RCTs; n = 2415), and the adjusted odds ratio for major bleeding for direct oral anticoagulants compared with placebo or no treatment ranged from 1.38 to 2.21, but CIs did not exclude a null effect.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Although screening can detect more cases of unknown AF, evidence regarding effects on health outcomes is limited. Anticoagulation was associated with lower risk of first stroke and mortality but with increased risk of major bleeding, although estimates for this harm are imprecise; no trials assessed benefits and harms of anticoagulation among screen-detected populations.

Assessment of Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction as a Surrogate for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Treatment or Prevention of Coronary Artery Disease: A Meta-analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials

IMPORTANCE

Although nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with an increased risk of mortality, evidence validating nonfatal MI as a surrogate end point for all-cause or cardiovascular (CV) mortality is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether nonfatal MI may be a surrogate for all-cause or CV mortality in patients with or at risk for coronary artery disease.

DATA SOURCES

In this meta-analysis, PubMed was searched from inception until December 31, 2020, for randomized clinical trials of interventions to treat or prevent coronary artery disease reporting mortality and nonfatal MI published in 3 leading journals.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized clinical trials including at least 1000 patients with 24 months of follow-up.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Trial-level correlations between nonfatal MI and all-cause or CV mortality were assessed for surrogacy using the coefficient of determination (R2). The criterion for surrogacy was set at 0.8. Subgroup analyses based on study subject (primary prevention, secondary prevention, mixed primary and secondary prevention, and revascularization), era of trial (before 2000, 2000-2009, and 2010 and after), and follow-up duration (2.0-3.9, 4.0-5.9, and ≥6.0 years) were performed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause or CV mortality and nonfatal MI.

RESULTS

A total of 144 articles randomizing 1 211 897 patients met the criteria for inclusion. Nonfatal MI did not meet the threshold for surrogacy for all-cause (R2 = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.00-0.08) or CV (R2 = 0.11; 95% CI, 0.02-0.27) mortality. Nonfatal MI was not a surrogate for all-cause mortality in primary (R2 = 0.01; 95% CI, 0.001-0.26), secondary (R2 = 0.03; 95% CI, 0.00-0.20), mixed primary and secondary prevention (R2 = 0.001; 95% CI, 0.00-0.08), or revascularization trials (R2 = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.002-0.50). For trials enrolling patients before 2000 (R2 = 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08-0.36), between 2000 and 2009 (R2 = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.00-0.17), and from 2010 and after (R2 = 0.01; 95% CI, 0.00-0.09), nonfatal MI was not a surrogate for all-cause mortality. Nonfatal MI was not a surrogate for all-cause mortality in randomized clinical trials with 2.0 to 3.9 (R2 = 0.004; 95% CI, 0.00-0.08), 4.0 to 5.9 (R2 = 0.06; 95% CI, 0.001-0.16), or 6.0 or more years of follow-up (R2 = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.01-0.55).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this meta-analysis do not appear to establish nonfatal MI as a surrogate for all-cause or CV mortality in randomized clinical trials of interventions to treat or prevent coronary artery disease.

What really matters: a patient-centered instrument to evaluate health-related quality of life in cardiovascular disease

Aims

Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) to assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are increasingly used to guide decision-making in cardiovascular care. However, many of the existing PROMs are developed with limited patient involvement and overlook personal health preferences. We aim to develop a cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific patient-centred preference-based PROM to assess and monitor HRQoL in CVD patients.

Methods and results

A mixed-methods study consisting of several phases was conducted to identify important health items: (i) a scoping literature review, (ii) first- and second-round expert group meetings, (iii) interviews with CVD patients, and (iv) an online survey asking CVD patients to indicate from a large set those health items that are considered the most important. The literature review, expert group meetings, and patient interviews resulted in a list of 55 items potentially important to CVD patients. In total, 666 CVD patients responded to the survey. The following nine items were considered the most important by CVD patients: mobility, activities, self-reliance, fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pain, palpitations, anxiety/worrying, and sexual limitations. An electronic preference-based PROM consisting of these nine items was developed within a cloud-based environment for clinical implementation.

Conclusion

Nine items considered the most important for health by CVD patients were identified and included in a new preference-based patient-centred PROM. This new CVD-specific PROM can be easily implemented using the electronic application and has the potential to improve quality of care for CVD patients.

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors, All-Cause Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

Background

This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in reducing the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Methods and Results

We conducted a Bayesian meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors with placebo. We used meta‐regression to examine the association between treatment effects and control group event rates as measures of cardiovascular baseline risk. Fifty‐three randomized controlled trials were included in our synthesis. Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause mortality (empagliflozin: rate ratio [RR], 0.79; 95% credibility interval [CrI], 0.63–0.97; canagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.69–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.86; 95% CrI, 0.72–1.01) and cardiovascular mortality (empagliflozin: RR, 0.78; 95% CrI, 0.61–1.00; canagliflozin: RR, 0.83; 95% CrI, 0.63–1.05; dapagliflozin: RR, 0.88; 95% CrI, 0.71–1.08), with a 90.1% to 98.7% probability for the true RR to be <1.00 for both outcomes. There was little evidence for ertugliflozin and sotagliflozin versus placebo for reducing all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality. There was no association between treatment effects for all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality and the control group event rates. There was evidence for a reduction in the incidence of heart failure for empagliflozin, canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and ertugliflozin versus placebo (probability RR <1.00 of ≥99.3%) and weaker, albeit positive, evidence for acute myocardial infarction for the first 3 agents (probability RR <1.00 of 89.0%–95.2%). There was little evidence of any agent except canagliflozin for reducing the incidence of stroke.

Conclusions

Empagliflozin, canagliflozin, and dapagliflozin reduced the incidence of all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality versus placebo. Treatment effects of sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors versus placebo do not vary by baseline risk.

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding: proposed study outcomes for new randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) remains a common cause of hospitalisation. However, interpretation and comparisons of published studies in GIB have been hampered by disparate study methodology.

AIMS

To make recommendations about outcome measures to be used in future randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of patients with acute bleeding from any GI source (nonvariceal UGI, variceal, small bowel, or colon) and suggest new RCTs in acute GIB for future peer-reviewed funding.

METHODS

As part of a National Institutes of Health conference entitled "Hemostatic Outcomes in Clinical Trials", a group of GIB experts performed targeted critical reviews of available evidence with the goal of proposing a bleeding outcome that could potentially be applied to different disciplines. In addition, the panel sought to develop a clinically meaningful primary endpoint specifically for acute GIB, potentially allowing a more contemporary regrouping of clinically relevant outcomes.

RESULTS

The primary endpoint proposed was a composite outcome of further bleeding within 30 days after randomisation leading to red blood cell transfusion, urgent intervention (repeat endoscopy; interventional radiology or surgery), or death. Secondary outcomes may include the individual components of the primary outcome, length of hospitalisation, serious adverse events, and health care resource utilisation.

CONCLUSION

The proposed endpoint may help move the GIB field forward by focusing on the most clinically relevant outcomes for patients with acute GIB of all types and informing study design and importance of sample size determination for future RCTs in GIB.

The frozen elephant trunk technique: impact of proximalization and the four-sites perfusion technique

 

OBJECTIVES

To improve organ protection with the frozen elephant trunk (FET) procedure, a so-called four-sites perfusion in combination with proximalization for the distal aortic anastomosis was performed. The impact of these techniques on patient outcome is reported.

METHODS

Between February 2005 and April 2020, a total of 357 patients underwent the FET procedure for acute (54%) or chronic (22%) aortic dissection or aneurysmal disease (24%). The level of the distal FET anastomosis was defined according to aortic arch zones 0–3. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the intraoperative perfusion strategy: (i) selective antegrade cerebral perfusion (SACP) alone (N = 96, 2 sites); (ii) SACP plus left subclavian artery or distal aorta (N = 84, 3 sites) and (iii) SACP plus left subclavian artery plus distal aorta (N = 177, 4 sites). Early outcome was addressed by a composite end point: occurrence of either a disabling stroke, a disabling spinal cord injury, extracorporeal circulatory support, kidney dialysis or death within 90 days.

RESULTS

Preoperative characteristics were similar among the groups. Surgery in group C was characterized by FET proximalization in arch zone ≤2, moderate hypothermia at 28°C and shorter periods of extracorporeal circulation, SACP, hypothermic circulatory arrest and cardioplegic arrest (P < 0.001, respectively). Occurrence of the composite end point was reduced in group C (P = 0.008). The combination of FET proximalization and four-sites perfusion was a protective factor for the composite outcome in multivariable analysis (P = 0.009). The 5-year survival was improved in patients who underwent FET proximalization in zone ≤2 (hazard ratio 0.7, 95% confidence interval 0.4–1.0; P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

FET proximalization in combination with four-sites perfusion has the potential to improve patient outcomes in terms of survival and major events.

Subject collection

120; 161.

Early-Phase Interventional Trials in Oral Cancer Prevention

Simple Summary

Oral cancer is a devastating disease with increasing incidence worldwide. Oral epithelial dysplasia (OED) is a potentially malignant disorder and patients with OED are at increased risk of developing oral cancer. Current strategies for management of OED include surgery or close observation and both fail to address the underlying pathogenesis of the disease. There is an urgent need for evidence-based medical treatments for OED to prevent oral cancer development in this cohort. Chemoprevention trials to date have not delivered therapeutic agents for routine clinical practice. Historically, there has been significant heterogeneity in the design of oral cancer chemoprevention trials, with most failing to selectively recruit patients with biopsy-proven OED, which limits the usefulness of the findings in the OED population. The present paper aims to review the current evidence and the methodology of early-phase trials in oral cancer chemoprevention. Novel strategies in oral cancer chemoprevention will also be discussed.

Abstract

The increasing breadth of molecular targets, promise of immune-targeted therapies and repurposed agents have heightened interest in cancer prevention. While, to date, testing of oral cancer chemoprevention strategies has failed to deliver therapeutic agents for routine clinical practice, there remains an urgent need for further clinical research to overcome this hurdle. Patients at the greatest risk of disease stand to benefit the most from inclusion in clinical trials; therefore, there is a need to carefully define this population using validated clinical and molecular markers. Safety, tolerability and the efficacy of interventions is assessed through carefully selected endpoints. These endpoints may include pharmacodynamic, clinical, histological and on-target molecular modifications as an individual or as a composite endpoint. Early-phase trials provide an area of opportunity to explore novel and repurposed agents in the setting of oral cancer chemoprevention, eventually leading to phase III trials with clinical endpoints such as transformation and clinical outcome; these studies are large, lengthy and expensive and should be reserved for the most promising of agents. This paper will explore current evidence in oral cancer chemoprevention, drug repurposing, selection of appropriate endpoints for early-phase trials and novel therapeutic angles in oral cancer chemoprevention.