Low Lipid Levels and High Variability are Associated With the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Low remnant cholesterol and the subsequent risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia with high morbidity and mortality implications. Several studies have described a paradoxical inverse relationship between serum cholesterol and the risk of AF, but it remains unknown whether remnant cholesterol (RC) is associated with AF incidence.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to prospectively investigate the association between RC and AF.

METHODS

A total of 392,783 participants free of AF at baseline from the UK Biobank were included for the analysis. Cox proportional hazards model, subgroup analysis, and sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the independent association between RC levels and the risk of new-onset AF. Furthermore, we performed a discordance analysis by using the median cutoff points of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and RC.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 12.8 years (interquartile range 12.0-13.6 years), a total of 23,558 participants experienced incident AF. Compared with the highest RC level, the lower RC level was associated with an increased risk of AF incidence (quartile 1 vs quartile 4: hazard ratio 1.396; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.343-1.452). The results remained robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. In the discordance analyses, a significantly higher risk of AF was observed in participants with discordant low RC/high LDL-C levels than in those with concordant high RC/LDL-C levels. In the low LDL-C group, RC reduction even contributed to an additional 15.8% increased rate of incident AF (low RC/low LDL-C: hazard ratio 1.303; 95% CI 1.260-1.348 vs high RC/low LDL-C: hazard ratio 1.125; 95% CI 1.079-1.172).

CONCLUSION

Low RC levels were associated with an increased risk of incident AF independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Prospective associations between systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, and physical activity behaviour and the development of cardiovascular disease

AIMS

To systematically appraise and summarise meta-analyses of longitudinal studies to determine the effect size, and quality and certainty of the evidence summaries for systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum cholesterol, and physical activity behaviour in developing cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

An umbrella review was conducted by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus databases. Eligible meta-analyses were longitudinal studies investigating the association between SBP, serum cholesterol, or physical activity behaviour on CVD development. Summary risk estimates were extracted. Quality and certainty of the evidence summaries of included records were performed using AMSTAR 2 and GRADE, respectively. Forty-one eligible records were found of which thirteen related to SBP, five to cholesterol, and twenty-three to physical activity behaviour. The quality and certainty of the evidence summaries were variable, with most studies rating 'low'. Reported risk estimates for the risk of developing CVD ranged from: no change to a 68% decreased risk for lower SBP; a 21% increased risk to a 44% decreased risk for lower cholesterol; and a 1% decreased risk to a 56% decreased risk for higher physical activity levels.

CONCLUSIONS

There were strong associations with CVD risk at the meta-analysis level for all three exposures, with a proportionally greater number of meta-analyses and primary studies for physical activity than SBP or serum cholesterol. Given the number of meta-analyses and similar CVD risk reductions and certainty of evidence associated with physical activity behaviour, there is a strong case for its routine assessment alongside SBP and serum cholesterol in primary CVD prevention.

Association Between Remnant Cholesterol and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: Population-Based Evidence From a Large-Scale Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence for the relationship between remnant cholesterol (RC) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) risk remains sparse and limited.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants were enrolled between 2006 and 2010 and followed up to 2021. The multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the relationship between RC quartiles and risk of incident AF. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the potential modification of the association and the robustness of the main findings. A total of 422 316 participants (mean age, 56 years; 54% women) were included for analyses. During a median follow-up of 11.9 years (first quartile-third quartile, 11.6-13.2 years), there were 24 774 AF events documented with an incidence of 4.92 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 4.86-4.98). Participants in higher RC quartiles had a lower risk of incident AF than those in the lowest quartile (first quartile): hazard ratio (HR)=0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00) for second quartile; HR=0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.96) for third quartile; and HR=0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.89) for fourth quartile (P for trend <0.001). The association between RC quartiles and risk of incident AF was stronger in participants aged ≥65 years, in men, and in participants without history of diabetes when compared with control groups (P<0.001 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of data from this large-scale prospective cohort study, elevated RC was associated with a lower risk of incident AF.

Sex-Specific Cardiometabolic Determinants of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases increase the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF), a complication leading to higher long-term risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE). It remains unknown whether the effect of these risk factors differs according to sex. We sought to evaluate the sex-specific predictors of POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

METHODS

In a prospective registry of patients undergoing isolated CABG, we compared predictors of POAF between sexes with logistic regression models. Because of high prevalence of abdominal obesity in women, > 80% having a waist circumference (WC) ≥ 88 cm, median WC values were used to define abdominal obesity (men ≥ 102 cm, women ≥ 100 cm).

RESULTS

This analysis included 6177 individuals (17% women). Mean age was 65.6 ± 8.9 years. POAF occurred in 32% of men and 28% of women (P < 0.05). Compared with men, women with POAF had similar WC; higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes; lower high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol; and higher glucose, triglyceride, low- density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, and C-reactive protein levels (all P < 0.05). After adjustment, age and abdominal obesity were associated with POAF in both sexes (P < 0.05). The interaction of WC with sex suggested a worse impact of WC on POAF risk among women (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-2.62 vs in men 1.33; 95% CI, 1.17-1.50; P for interaction = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Abdominal obesity is a major predictor of POAF in both sexes, with higher risk in women. These results emphasize the need for enhanced strategies to manage abdominal obesity and its cardiometabolic consequences in the general population and the potential to develop sex-specific preventive interventions to reduce risk of POAF.

Association Between Lipoprotein (a) and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Mendelian Randomization Studies

Lipoprotein (a) (Lp[a]) is an established risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, data on association of Lp(a) with risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still limited. We searched PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and EMBASE for studies evaluating the association of Lp(a) with the occurrence of AF until July 2023. Random effects models and I2 statistics were used for pooled odds ratios (OR), and heterogeneity assessments. A subgroup analysis was performed based on the cohort population, and a one-out sensitivity analysis was performed. This meta-analysis comprised 275,647 AF cases and 2,100,172 Lp(a) participants. An increase in Lp(a) was associated with an increased risk of AF in mendelian randomization (MR) studies (OR 1.024, 95% CI: 1.007-1.042, I2 = 87.72%, P < 0.001). Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis confirmed equivalent results in MR studies. Subgroup analysis of MR studies revealed a higher risk of AF in the European cohort (OR 1.023, 95% CI: 1.007-1.040, I2 = 89.05%, P < 0.001) and a low risk (OR 0.940, 95% CI: 0.893-0.990) in the Chinese population. Meta-analysis of the MR data suggested higher levels of Lp(a) were associated with increased risk of AF. Future robust prospective studies are warranted to validate these findings.

Non-invasive mid-term electrocardiogram patch monitoring is effective in detecting atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a cause of serious morbidity such as stroke. Early detection and treatment of AF is important. Current guidelines recommend screening via opportunistic pulse taking or 12‑lead electrocardiogram. Mid-term ECG patch monitors increases the sensitivity of AF detection.

METHODS

The Singapore Atrial Fibrillation Study is a prospective multi-centre study aiming to study the incidence of AF in patients with no prior AF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 1, with the use of a mid-term continuous ECG monitoring device (Spyder ECG). Consecutive patients from both inpatient and outpatient settings were recruited from 3 major hospitals from May 2016 to December 2019.

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-five patients were monitored. 6 patients (1.7%) were diagnosed with AF. There were no significant differences in total duration of monitoring between the AF and non-AF group (6.39 ± 3.19 vs 5.42 ± 2.46 days, p = 0.340). Patients with newly detected AF were more likely to have palpitations (50.0% vs 11.8%, p = 0.027). Half of the patients (n = 3, 50.0%) were diagnosed on the first day of monitoring and the rest were diagnosed after 24 h. On univariate analysis, only hyperlipidemia was associated with reduced odds of being diagnosed with AF (OR HR 0.08 CI 0.01-0.74, p = 0.025). In a group of 128 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and had post-operative ECG monitoring, 9 patients (7.0%) were diagnosed with post-operative AF.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of non-invasive mid-term patch-based ECG monitoring is an effective modality for AF screening.

Association between lipid variability and the risk of mortality in cancer patients not receiving lipid-lowering agents

Aim

We investigated the association between total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglyceride (TG) variability and cancer patient mortality risk.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 42,539 cancer patients who were not receiving lipid-lowering agents and who had at least three TC measurements within 2 years of their initial cancer diagnosis. Using a multivariable Cox regression model, the risk of mortality was evaluated.

Results

In multivariable analysis, Q2 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-1.41), Q3 (aHR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.56-1.76), and Q4 (aHR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.84-2.08) of coefficient of variation (CV) in TC were significantly associated with mortality risk compared to Q1, showing a linear association between higher TC variability and mortality (P for trend<0.001). Q2 (aHR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.06-1.77), Q3 (aHR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.06-1.85), and Q4 (aHR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.14-1.97) were all significantly associated with a higher risk of death compared to Q1 in multivariable Cox regression for the association between CV in LDL and all-cause mortality (P for trend=0.005).

Conclusion

In cancer patients who do not receive lipid-lowering agents, high variability in total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels was found to pose significant role in mortality risk.

Association between cardiovascular risk factors and atrial fibrillation

Background

The most prevalent sustained arrhythmia in medical practice, atrial fibrillation (AF) is closely associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease. Nevertheless, the risk of AF associated with cardiovascular risk factors has not been well elucidated. We pooled all published studies to provide a better depiction of the relationship among cardiovascular risk factors with AF.

Methods

Studies were searched in the MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases since initiation until January 15, 2022. Prospective cohort studies assessing the relationship a minimum of single cardiovascular risk factors to AF incidence were included if they contained adequate data for obtaining relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Random-effects models were utilized to perform independent meta-analyses on each cardiovascular risk factor. PROSPERO registry number: CRD42022310882.

Results

A total of 17,098,955 individuals and 738,843 incident cases were reported for data from 101 studies included in the analysis. In all, the risk of AF was 1.39 (95% CI, 1.30-1.49) for obesity, 1.27 (95% CI, 1.22-1.32) per 5 kg/m2 for increase in body mass index, 1.19 (95% CI, 1.10-1.28) for former smokers, 1.23 (95% CI, 1.09-1.38) for current smokers, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.23-1.39) for diabetes mellitus, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.51-1.87) for hypertension, and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.95-1.32) for dyslipidemia.

Interpretation

Adverse cardiovascular risk factors correlate with an increased risk of AF, yet dyslipidemia does not increase the risk of AF in the general population, potentially providing new insights for AF screening strategies among patients with these risk factors.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO identifier (CRD42022310882).

Effect of lard plus soybean oil on blood pressure and other cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy subjects: a randomized controlled-feeding trial

Lard has been consumed by humans for thousands of years, but its consumption has declined substantially in the last few decades, because of negative publicity about the consumption of animal-derived saturated fats. Emerging evidence highlights that lard plus soybean oil (blend oil) could be more beneficial for body weight and liver function than the individual use of the two oils. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of blend oil on cardiometabolic risk factors in healthy subjects. This was a parallel, three-arm, randomized controlled-feeding trial. 334 healthy subjects (mean age: 33.1 years, 60% women) were randomized into three isoenergetic diet groups with three different edible oils (30 g day^-1) (soybean oil, lard, and blend oil [50% lard and 50% soybean oil]) for 12 weeks. 245 (73.4%) participants completed the study. After the 12-week intervention, reductions in both systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were greater in the blend oil group than in the other two groups (P = 0.023 and 0.008 for the interaction between the diet group and time, respectively). Reductions of SBP and DBP in the blend oil group were more significant than those in the soybean oil group with P = 0.008 and P = 0.026 and the lard group with P < 0.001 and P < 0.001. Changes in SBP/DBP at 12 weeks were -6.0 (95% CI: -8.6 to -3.4)/0.8 (95% CI: -1.7 to 3.2) mmHg in the blend oil group, -3.3 (95% CI: -5.7 to -0.9)/1.5 (95% CI: -1.0 to 4.0) mmHg in the soybean oil group and -1.2 (95% CI: -3.7 to 1.4)/3.3 (95% CI: 0.9 to 5.8) mmHg in the lard group. Subgroup analyses showed that blend oil significantly decreased SBP and DBP compared with the other two groups in participants with BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg and body mass index ≥25. There were no significant differences in the changes in body weight, waist circumference, serum lipids, or glucose between groups. In conclusion, our findings suggest that blend oil (lard plus soybean oil) reduces BP compared with soybean oil and lard in healthy subjects.

Cholesterol Paradox in Older People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Regardless of Lipid-Lowering Drug Use: A Cross-Sectional Cohort Study

Lipid-lowering drugs (LLDs) have protective effects against coronary artery disease (CAD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD); however, a paradoxical association with cholesterol has been identified in several diseases, such as diabetes, dementia, and atrial fibrillation. We aimed to analyze the association between LLDs and cholesterol levels in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This cross-sectional study enrolled consecutive patients aged ≥50 years from three centers in Taiwan. A multiple logistic regression model was used, and odds ratios (ORs) for different levels of total cholesterol (TC) or low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) compared with the highest level were adjusted for age, triglyceride level, sex, comorbidities, and medications. Among the 3688 participants, 572 with and 676 without T2DM used LLDs. After adjusting for age and sex, the non-T2DM group demonstrated better medical conditions, cognition, and daily function than the T2DM group, regardless of LLD use. Compared to the highest TC level (≥240 mg/dL), ORs were significantly increased as TC levels decreased. A similar pattern of T2DM prevalence was observed in LDL-C levels. Older people with T2DM demonstrated low cognitive and daily functions. Significantly reduced TC and LDL levels were associated with a higher T2DM prevalence in older adults regardless of LLD use. T2DM was associated with impaired cognitive and daily functioning. A higher prevalence of T2DM in older people with low cholesterol levels raises doubt surrounding cognition and daily function being jeopardized when the "lower is better" strategy is applied for the secondary prevention of CAD or CVD.

Association of hyperglycemia ratio and ventricular arrhythmia in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between relative hyperglycemia and ventricular arrhythmia (VA) in critically ill patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) and VA in this population.

METHODS

This retrospective and observational study analyzed data from 4324 critically ill patients admitted to the ICU, obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. The SHR was calculated as the highest blood glucose level during the first 24 h of ICU admission divided by the admission blood glucose level. Based on the optimal cut-off values under the receiver operating characteristic curve, patients were stratified into high SHR (≥ 1.31) and low SHR (< 1.31) group. To investigate the impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the outcome, patients were stratified as low SHR/DM; low SHR/non-DM; high SHR/DM, and high SHR/non-DM. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) and logistic regression analysis were performed to analyze the relationship between SHR and VA.

RESULTS

A total of 4,324 critically ill patients were included in this retrospective and observational study. The incidence of VA was higher in the high SHR group. Multiple-adjusted RCS revealed a "J-shaped" correlation between SHR and VA morbidity. The logistic regression model demonstrated that high SHR was associated with VA. The high SHR/non-DM group had a higher risk of VA than other groups stratified based on SHR and DM. Subgroup analysis showed that high SHR was associated with an increased risk of VA in patients with coronary artery disease.

CONCLUSION

High SHR is an independent risk factor and has potential as a biomarker of higher VT/VF risk in ICU-admitted patients.

Antithrombotic therapy and bleeding risk in the era of aggressive lipid-lowering: current evidence, clinical implications, and future perspectives

ABSTRACT

The clinical efficacy of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) in reducing major cardiovascular adverse events related to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) has been well established in recent large randomized outcome trials. Although the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality benefit of PCSK9i remains inconclusive, current cholesterol management guidelines have been modified toward more aggressive goals for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Consequently, the emerging concept of "the lower the better" has become the paradigm of ASCVD prevention. However, there is evidence from observational studies of a U-shaped association between baseline LDL-C levels and all-cause mortality in population-based cohorts. Among East Asian populations, low LDL-C was associated with an increased risk for hemorrhagic stroke in patients not on antithrombotic therapy. Accumulating evidence showed that low LDL-C was associated with an enhanced bleeding risk in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy following percutaneous coronary intervention. Additionally, low LDL-C was associated with a higher risk for incident atrial fibrillation and thereby, a possible increase in the risk for intracranial hemorrhage after initiation of anticoagulation therapy. The mechanism of low-LDL-C-related bleeding risk has not been fully elucidated. This review summarizes recent evidence of low-LDL-C-related bleeding risk in patients on antithrombotic therapy and discusses potential measures for reducing this risk, underscoring the importance of carefully weighing the pros and cons of aggressive LDL-C lowering in patients on antithrombotic therapy.

Current Evidence on Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation: Modifiable Risk Factors and the Effects of Risk Factor Intervention

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the most encountered arrhythmias in clinical practice. It is also estimated that the absolute AF burden may increase by greater than 60% by 2050. It is inevitable that AF will become one of the largest epidemics in the world and may pose a major health problem for countries. Although AF rarely causes mortality in the acute period, it causes a significant increase in mortality and morbidity, including a fivefold increase in the risk of stroke, a twofold increase in dementia, and a twofold increase in myocardial infarction in the chronic period. Despite all the advances in the treatment of AF, it is better understood day by day that preventing AF may play a key role in reducing AF and its related complications. Modification of the main modifiable factors such as quitting smoking, abstaining from alcohol, changing eating habits, and exercise seems to be the first step in preventing AF. The strict adherence to the treatment process of secondary causes predisposing to AF such as DM, hypertension, obesity, and sleep apnea is another step in the prevention of AF. Both an individual approach and global public health campaigns can be highly beneficial to reduce the risk of AF. In this review, we aimed to summarize the current evidence on the relationship between modifiable risk factors and AF, and the impact of possible interventions on these factors in preventing or reducing the AF burden in the light of recently published guidelines and studies.

Evaluation of the Paradoxical Association Between Lipid Levels and Incident Atrial Fibrillation According to Statin Usage: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Objective

Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) are associated with a lower risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Statin use might exert confounding effects on the paradoxical associations; however, the relationships that distinguish statin users from non-users have not been thoroughly evaluated.

Methods

From the Korean National Health Insurance Database, we included 9,778,014 adults who underwent a health examination in 2009. The levels of TC and LDL-C at the health examination were categorized into quartile values of the total study population. We grouped the study population into statin users and non-users and investigated the associations between TC, LDL-C, and the risk of incident AF.

Results

Of the total population, 867,336 (8.9%) were taking statins. During a mean follow-up of 8.2 years, inverse associations of TC - AF and LDL-C - AF were observed; higher levels of TC and LDL-C were associated with the lower risk of AF in the total population. Overall, statin users showed higher AF incidence rate than non-users, but the inverse associations of TC - AF and LDL-C - AF were consistently observed irrespective of statin usage; adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval was 0.81 (0.79-0.84) for statin users and 0.81 (0.80-0.83) for non-users in the highest TC quartile, and 0.84 (0.82-0.87) for statin users and 0.85 (0.84-0.86) for non-users in the highest LDL-C quartile (all p<0.001).

Conclusion

The paradoxical relationship between lipid levels (TC and LDL-C) and the risk of AF remains consistent in both statin users and non-users.

Relationship between nutritional status and length of hospital stay among patients with atrial fibrillation - a result of the nutritional status heart study

Background

Nutritional status is related to the prognosis and length of hospital stay (LOHS) of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess how nutritional status affects LOHS for patients with AF.

Methods

We performed retrospective analysis of the medical records of 1,813 patients admitted urgently with a diagnosis of AF to the Institute of Heart Diseases of the University Clinical Hospital in Wroclaw, Poland.

Results

In total, 1,813 patients were included in the analysis. The average LOHS in the entire group was 3.53 ± 3.41 days. The mean BMI was 28.7 kg/m² (SD: 5.02). Patients who were hospitalized longer were statistically more likely to have a Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) ≥3 (p = 0.028). A higher percentage of longer hospitalized patients with LDL levels below 70 mg/dl (p < 0.001) and those with HDL ≥40 mg/dl (p < 0.001) were observed. Study participants with NRS ≥3 were an older group (M = 76.3 years), with longer mean LOHS (M = 4.44 days). The predictors of LOHS in the univariate model were age (OR = 1.04), LDL (OR = 0.99), HDL (OR = 0.98), TC (OR = 0.996), CRP (OR = 1, 02, p < 0.001), lymphocytes (OR = 0.97, p = 0.008) and in the multivariate model were age, LDL (mg/dl), HDL (mg/dl), Na, and K.

Conclusion

For nutritional status, factors indicating the risk of prolonged hospitalization in patients with AF are malnutrition, lower serum LDL, HDL, potassium, and sodium levels identified at the time of admission to the cardiology department. Assessment of nutritional status in patients with AF is important both in the context of evaluating obesity and malnutrition status, as both conditions can alter the prognosis of patients. Further studies are needed to determine the exact impact of the above on the risk of prolonged hospitalization.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil

BACKGROUND

The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil).

METHODS

This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05.

RESULTS

The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

Lipids and atrial fibrillation: New insights into a paradox

In this Perspective, Dimitrios Sagris, Stephanie Harrison, and Gregory Lip discuss new evidence concerning the paradoxical relationship between circulating lipids and atrial fibrillation.

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

Lipid Levels and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

AIM

In acute myocardial fraction (AMI) patients, the association between lipid parameters and new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) remains unclear due to limited evidence.

METHODS

A total of 4282 participants free from atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline were identified in Beijing Friendship Hospital. Fasting levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were measured at baseline. The study population was stratified based on tertiles of lipid profile and lipid ratios. Incidence of NOAF was observed at the follow-up visits. The associations between different lipid parameters and the incidence of NOAF were assessed by multivariate Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 42.0 months (IQR: 18.7, 67.3 months), 3.1% (N=132) AMI patients developed NOAF. After multivariable adjustment, higher TC (hazard ratios (HR): 0.205, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.061-0.696) levels were inversely associated with NOAF development. However, higher HDL-C (HR: 1.892, 95% CI: 1.133-3.159) levels were positively associated with NOAF development. LDL-C levels, TG levels, non-HDL-C levels, and lipid ratios showed no association with NOAF development.

CONCLUSION

TC levels were inversely associated with incidence of NOAF; this was mainly reflected in the subgroups of male gender and older patients (65 years or older). HDL-C levels were positively associated with incidence of NOAF; this was mainly reflected in the subgroups of male gender and younger patients (age ＜65 years). There was no significant association of NOAF with LDL-C, TG, or non-HDL-C levels.

The effect of apolipoprotein E gene polymorphism and Lp(a) levels on coronary artery disease with atrial fibrillation

Objective

To explore the influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes and blood lipid metabolism on coronary artery disease (CAD) with atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods

Patients with suspected CAD were consecutively enrolled and divided into groups with or without CAD and/or AF. Blood lipid levels and APOE genotypes were determined and analysed for associations with CAD and AF.

Results

A total of 2048 patients were included (400 patients without CAD or AF [controls], 126 patients without CAD but with AF, 1294 patients with CAD without AF, and 228 patients with CAD and AF). Age and lipoprotein (a) (Lp[a]) levels were significantly higher in patients with CAD and AF versus those with CAD without AF. Among patients with CAD, the E3/E3 genotype and ε3 allele frequencies were significantly lower in patients with AF than in those without AF, and the E4/E4 genotype and ε4 allele frequencies were significantly increased. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that increased Lp(a) levels and age were independent risk factors for AF in patients with CAD.

Conclusion

Among patients with CAD, those with AF had increased age, ε4 frequencies and Lp(a) levels. Age and Lp(a) levels may be independent risk factors for AF in patients with CAD.

Development and Validation of a Novel Score for Predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Atrial fibrillation (AF)—whether paroxysmal or sustained—increases the risk of stroke. We developed and validated a risk score for identifying patients at risk of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (pAF) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). A total of 6033 patients with AIS who received 24 h Holter monitoring were identified in the Chang Gung Research Database. Among the identified patients, 5290 with pAF and without AF were included in the multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop the pAF prediction model. The ABCD-SD score (Age, Systolic Blood pressure, Coronary artery disease, Dyslipidemia, and Standard Deviation of heart rate) comprises age (+2 points for every 10 years), systolic blood pressure (−1 point for every 20 mmHg), coronary artery disease (+2 points), dyslipidemia (−2 points), and standard deviation of heart rate (+2 points for every 3 beats per minute). Overall, 5.2% (274/5290) of patients had pAF. The pAF risk ranged from 0.8% (ABCD-SD score ≤ 7) to 18.3% (ABCD-SD score ≥ 15). The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) of 0.767 in the model development group. The ABCD-SD score could aid clinicians in identifying patients with AIS at risk of pAF for advanced cardiac monitoring.

Lipid Variability and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

No consensus has yet been reached on the associations of lipid variability (LV) with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to quantify the associations of different types and metrics of LV with CVDs and all-cause mortality. PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases were searched for eligible cohort studies published until 14 December 2021. Lipids included total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG). Metrics of variability included standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of the mean (VIM). The primary outcomes were CVDs and all-cause mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate a summary of the relative risks (SRRs). Sources of heterogeneity were explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. A total of 11 articles based on seven cohorts were included. Participants in the top quartile of TC variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: SRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.15-1.45; TC-SD: 1.28, 1.15-1.43; TC-VIM: 1.26, 1.13-1.41, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: 1.28, 1.15-1.42; TC-SD: 1.32, 1.22-1.44; TC-VIM: 1.32, 1.25-1.40, respectively). Participants in the top quartile of HDL-C variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.11, 1.07-1.15; HDL-C-SD: 1.18, 1.02-1.38; HDL-C-VIM: 1.18, 1.09-1.27, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.29, 1.27-1.31; HDL-C-SD: 1.24, 1.09-1.41; HDL-C-VIM: 1.25, 1.22-1.27, respectively). LDL-C variability was also associated with an increased risk of CVDs (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-SD: 1.09, 1.02-1.17; LDL-C-VIM: 1.16, 1.02-1.32, respectively) and all-cause mortality (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-CV: 1.19, 1.04-1.36; LDL-C-SD: 1.17, 1.09-1.26, respectively). The relationships of TG variability with the risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality were inconclusive across different metrics. The effects of SRR became stronger when analyses were restricted to studies that adjusted for lipid-lowering medication and unadjusted for mean lipid levels. These findings indicate that the measurement and surveillance of lipid variability might have important clinical implications for risk assessment of CVDs and all-cause mortality.

Age-dependent associations of body mass index with myocardial infarction, heart failure, and mortality in over 9 million Koreans

BACKGROUND

While obesity is a well-known cardiovascular risk factor, little is known whether age has a modifying effect.

AIM

To determine the age-dependent associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

A population-based cohort of 9,278,433 Koreans without prior cardiovascular disease were followed up for the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and all-cause death. The effect of BMI with optimal normal weight (18.5-22.9 kg/m2) as reference was analyzed according to age groups [young (20-39 years), middle-aged (40-64 years), and elderly (≥65 years)] and age decades.

RESULTS

During 8.2 years, MI, HF, and all-cause death occurred in 65,607 (0.71%), 131,903 (1.42%), and 306,065 (3.30%), respectively. Associations between BMI and all outcomes were significantly modified by age (p-for-interaction < 0.001). There was a proportional increase in incident MI according to BMI in young subjects; this relationship became U-shaped in middle-aged subjects, and inversely proportional/plateauing in elderly subjects. A U-shaped relationship between BMI and incident HF was observed, but the impact of obesity was stronger in young subjects while the impact of underweight was stronger in middle-aged and elderly subjects. Meanwhile, lower BMI was associated with higher all-cause mortality in all ages, although this association was attenuated at young age, and pre-obesity was associated with the greatest survival benefit. These associations were independent of sex, smoking, physical activity, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of BMI on cardiovascular risk differs according to age. Weight loss may be recommended for younger overweight subjects, while being mildly overweight may be beneficial at old age.

Elimination of Vitamin D Signaling Causes Increased Mortality in a Model of Overactivation of the Insulin Receptor: Role of Lipid Metabolism

Vitamin D (VD) deficiency has been associated with cancer and diabetes. Insulin signaling through the insulin receptor (IR) stimulates cellular responses by activating the PI3K/AKT pathway. PTEN is a tumor suppressor and a negative regulator of the pathway. Its absence enhances insulin signaling leading to hypoglycemia, a dangerous complication found after insulin overdose. We analyzed the effect of VD signaling in a model of overactivation of the IR. We generated inducible double KO (DKO) mice for the VD receptor (VDR) and PTEN. DKO mice showed severe hypoglycemia, lower total cholesterol and increased mortality. No macroscopic tumors were detected. Analysis of the glucose metabolism did not show clear differences that would explain the increased mortality. Glucose supplementation, either systemically or directly into the brain, did not enhance DKO survival. Lipidic liver metabolism was altered as there was a delay in the activation of genes related to β-oxidation and a decrease in lipogenesis in DKO mice. High-fat diet administration in DKO significantly improved its life span. Lack of vitamin D signaling increases mortality in a model of overactivation of the IR by impairing lipid metabolism. Clinically, these results reveal the importance of adequate Vitamin D levels in T1D patients.

Effect of blood lipid variability on mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: a large single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is a major cardiovascular risk factor and common in diabetes patients. Most guidelines focus on optimal lipid levels, while variation of lipid profiles is far less discussed. This study aims to investigate the association of visit-to-visit variability in blood lipids with all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We identified 10,583 type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥ 30 years with follow-up ≥ 3 years and who participated in the Diabetes Care Management Program at a medical center in Taiwan. Variability in lipid profiles within 3 years after entry was calculated using coefficient of variation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate lipid variability in relation to subsequent mortality.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years, 1838 all-cause deaths (809 cardiovascular deaths) were observed. For each 10% increase in variability in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality were 1.30 (1.22-1.37), 1.05 (1.01-1.09), and 1.10 (1.03-1.16), respectively; those of cardiovascular mortality were 1.27 (1.16-1.39), 1.08 (1.02-1.15), and 1.16 (1.07-1.27), respectively. Each 10% increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability conveyed 31% greater risk of non-cardiovascular mortality. High variability in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol increased all-cause mortality in subgroups of nonsmoking, regular exercising, non-dyslipidemia, and more severe status of diabetes at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood lipid variability except for triglyceride variability was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Risk stratification of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients receiving insulin therapy: A population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic abnormalities may exacerbate the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The present study aims to assess the predictive value of HbA1c and lipid variability on the risks of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

The retrospective observational study consists of type 2 diabetic patients prescribed with insulin, who went to publicly funded clinics and hospitals in Hong Kong between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2009. Variability in total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride, and HbA1c were assessed through their SD and coefficient of variation. The primary outcomes were incident (1) ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, actual or aborted SCD and (2) AF.

RESULTS

A total of 23 329 patients (mean ± SD age: 64 ± 14 years old; 51% male; mean HbA1c 8.6 ± 1.3%) were included. On multivariable analysis, HbA1c, total cholesterol, LDL-C and triglyceride variability were found to be predictors of SCD (p < .05).

CONCLUSION

HbA1c and lipid variability were predictive of SCD. Therefore, poor glucose control and variability in lipid parameters in diabetic patients are associated with aborted or actual SCD. These observations suggest the need to re-evaluate the extent of glycemic control required for outcome optimization.

LDL cholesterol levels and in-hospital bleeding in patients on high-intensity antithrombotic therapy: findings from the CCC-ACS project

AIMS 

Emerging evidence has linked cholesterol metabolism with platelet responsiveness. We sought to examine the dose-response relationship between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and major in-hospital bleeds in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS 

Among 42 378 ACS patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) enrolled in 240 hospitals in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-ACS project from 2014 to 2019, a total of 615 major bleeds, 218 ischaemic events, and 337 deaths were recorded. After controlling for baseline variables, a non-linear relationship was observed for major bleeds, with the higher risk at lower LDL-C levels. No dose-response relationship was identified for ischaemic events and mortality. A threshold value of LDL-C <70 mg/dL was associated with an increased risk for major bleeds (adjusted odds ratio: 1.49; 95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.84) in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models and in propensity score-matched cohorts. The results were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses. Among ticagrelor-treated patients, the LDL-C threshold for increased bleeding risk was observed at <88 mg/dL, whereas for clopidogrel-treated patients, the threshold was <54 mg/dL. Across a full spectrum of LDL-C levels, the treatment effect size associated with ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel on major bleeds favoured clopidogrel at lower LDL-C levels, but no difference at higher LDL-C levels.

CONCLUSIONS 

In a nationwide ACS registry, a non-linear association was identified between LDL-C levels and major in-hospital bleeds following PCI, with the higher risk at lower levels. As the potential for confounding may exist, further studies are warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02306616.

Risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients on oral anticoagulant and proton pump inhibitor co-therapy

Background

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are known to reduce the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients on oral anticoagulants, and patients are increasingly on oral anticoagulants and PPI co-therapy. However, evidence is lacking on the safety and effectiveness of oral anticoagulants when co-administered with PPIs.

Methods

Among patients initiating oral anticoagulants (warfarin and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants [NOACs], i.e. rivaroxaban, dabigatran, apixaban, and edoxaban) during 2013–2017, those concomitantly prescribed PPIs were identified (n = 19,851). The primary endpoint was hospitalization for major upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and secondary endpoints were death and ischemic stroke.

Results

During a mean 1.4 years of follow-up, the primary endpoint occurred in 512 (2.58%) patients. Overall, NOACs were associated with lower upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk after adjustment for age, sex, comorbidities and concomitant medications (adjusted hazard ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.65–0.94), compared to warfarin. There was no significant difference in upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk among the individual NOACs. This trend of reduced risk for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in NOACs compared to warfarin was consistent for both regular and reduced doses, throughout bleeding risk groups, and other subgroup analyses. NOACs were also associated with lower risk of death compared to warfarin. The risk for ischemic stroke was not significantly different among the oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Conclusion

In patients on oral anticoagulant and PPI co-therapy, NOACs were associated with lower risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and mortality compared to warfarin, while there was no difference among the oral anticoagulants for stroke prevention. In patients on PPI therapy, NOACs may preferred over warfarin for decreasing risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding and mortality.

Causal effects of plasma lipids on the risk of atrial fibrillation: A multivariable mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Observational studies have suggested that plasma lipids contribute substantially to cardiovascular disease, but "cholesterol paradox" in atrial fibrillation (AF) remains. We sought to investigate the causal effects of lipid profiles on the risk of AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) framework was implemented to examine the causality of association. Summary estimations of genetic variants associated with low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein-a [Lp(a)], apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA 1), and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) were 81, 99, 96, 61, 30, 10, and 23 single nucleotide polymorphisms, respectively. Genetic association with AF were retrieved from a genome-wide association study that included 1,030,836 individuals. The complications for AF were predefined as cardioembolic stroke (CES) and heart failure (HF). In the multivariable MR, the odds ratios for AF per standard deviation (SD) increase were 1.030 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.979-1.083; P = 0.257) for LDL-cholesterol, 0.986 (95% CI 0.931-1.044; P = 0.622) for HDL-cholesterol, 0.965 (95% CI 0.896-1.041; P = 0.359) for triglycerides, 1.001 (95% CI 1.000-1.003; P = 0.023) for Lp(a), 1.017 (95% CI 0.966-1.070; P = 0.518) for ApoA1, and 1.002 (95% CI 0.963-1.043; P = 0.923) for ApoB. There was no evidence that other lipid components were causally associated with AF, CES, or HF, other than for a marginal association between triglycerides and HF.

CONCLUSIONS

This MR study provides robust evidence that high Lp(a) increases the risk of AF, suggesting that interventions targeting Lp(a) may contribute to the primary prevention of AF.

Glycemic and lipid variability for predicting complications and mortality in diabetes mellitus using machine learning

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies have reported that HbA1c and lipid variability is useful for risk stratification in diabetes mellitus. The present study evaluated the predictive value of the baseline, subsequent mean of at least three measurements and variability of HbA1c and lipids for adverse outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study consists of type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients who were prescribed insulin at outpatient clinics of Hong Kong public hospitals, from 1st January to 31st December 2009. Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation were used to measure the variability of HbA1c, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglyceride. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were diabetes-related complications.

RESULT

The study consists of 25,186 patients (mean age = 63.0, interquartile range [IQR] of age = 15.1 years, male = 50%). HbA1c and lipid value and variability were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. Higher HbA1c and lipid variability measures were associated with increased risks of neurological, ophthalmological and renal complications, as well as incident dementia, osteoporosis, peripheral vascular disease, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure (p <  0.05). Significant association was found between hypoglycemic frequency (p <  0.0001), HbA1c (p <  0.0001) and lipid variability against baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR).

CONCLUSION

Raised variability in HbA1c and lipid parameters are associated with an elevated risk in both diabetic complications and all-cause mortality. The association between hypoglycemic frequency, baseline NLR, and both HbA1c and lipid variability implicate a role for inflammation in mediating adverse outcomes in diabetes, but this should be explored further in future studies.

Risk prediction for new-onset atrial fibrillation using the Minnesota code electrocardiography classification system

Background

Few risk models are available to predict future onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) in workers. We aimed to develop risk prediction models for new-onset AF, using annual health checkup (HC) data with electrocardiogram findings.

Methods and Results

We retrospectively included 56,288 factory or office workers (mean age = 51.5 years, 33.0% women) who underwent a HC at a medical center and fulfilled the following criteria; age ≥ 40 years, no history of AF, and greater than 1 annual follow-up HC in 2013–2016. Using Cox models with the Akaike information criterion, we developed and compared prediction models for new-onset AF with and without the Minnesota code information. We externally validated the discrimination accuracy of the models in a general Japanese population cohort, the Hisayama cohort. During the median 3.0-year follow-up, 209 (0.37%) workers developed AF. Age, sex, waist circumference, blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and γ-GTP were associated with new-onset of AF. Using the Minnesota code information, the AUC significantly improved from 0.82 to 0.84 in the derivation cohort and numerically improved from 0.78 to 0.79 in the validation cohort, and from 0.77 to 0.79 in the Hisayama cohort. The NRI and IDI significantly improved in all and male subjects in both the derivation and validation cohorts, and in female subjects in both the validation and the Hisayama cohorts.

Conclusions

We developed useful risk model with Minnesota code information for predicting new-onset AF from large worker population validated in the original and external cohorts, although study interpretation is limited by small improvement of AUC.

Association between lipoprotein cholesterol and future cardiovascular disease and mortality in older adults: a Korean nationwide longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is considered an independent health risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), a leading cause of mortality in older adults. Despite its importance, there have been few reports on the association between lipoprotein cholesterol and future CVD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality among elderly Asians aged ≥ 65 years. This study investigated the association between lipoprotein cholesterol and future CVD and CV mortality in an elderly Korean population using a large nationwide sample.

METHODS

From the cohort database of the Korean National Health Insurance Service, 62,604 adults aged ≥ 65 years (32,584 men and 30,020 women) were included. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were categorized by quartiles. Cox proportional hazard models and linear regression analyses were used to assess the association between the quartiles of lipoprotein cholesterol and future CV events or mortality.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up period was 3.3 years. The incidence rates of ischemic heart disease and ischemic brain disease were 0.97 and 0.61 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, and the mortality rates from these diseases were 0.22 and 0.34 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. In a completely adjusted model, high HDL-C and LDL-C levels were not associated with total CV events and CVD mortality. However, high LDL-C levels were significantly associated with a lower incidence of ischemic brain disease. Furthermore, diabetic patients with high LDL-C levels were more likely to have higher CV mortality, whereas non-smokers with high LDL-C levels were less likely to be at risk of CV events.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither high LDL-C nor HDL-C levels were significantly associated with future CV mortality in older adults aged ≥ 65 years. High LDL-C levels do not seem to be a risk factor for CVD in elderly individuals, and further studies are required.

Effect of Variability in Blood Pressure, Glucose and Cholesterol Concentrations, and Body Weight on Emergency Hospitalization and 30-Day Mortality in the General Population

Background

Variability in blood pressure, glucose concentration, cholesterol concentration, or body weight is associated with a wide range of health outcomes. We hypothesized that high variability in metabolic parameters is associated with an increased risk of emergency hospitalization and mortality.

Methods and Results

Using a nationally representative database from the Korean National Health Insurance System, 8 049 228 individuals who underwent 3 or more health examinations during 2005 to 2010 were followed up until the end of 2016. Variability in fasting blood glucose and total cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and body weight was measured using the variability independent of the mean (VIM). High variability was defined as the highest quartile of variability. Subjects were classified according to the number of high variability parameters. The end points of the study were emergency hospitalization and 30‐day mortality. There were 733 387 emergency hospitalizations (9.1%) during a median follow‐up of 5.6±1.2 years. For each metabolic parameter, an incrementally higher risk of emergency hospitalization was observed for higher VIM quartile groups than for the lowest quartile group. Compared with the group with low variability for all 4 parameters, the group with high variability for all 4 parameters had a significantly higher risk for emergency hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 1.58; 95% CI, 1.54–1.61) and 30‐day mortality (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.62–3.69), after adjusting for possible confounding factors.

Conclusions

High variability in metabolic parameters was associated with increased risk of emergency hospitalization and short‐term mortality.

Greater variability in lipid measurements associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality: A 10-year diabetes cohort study

AIM

To examine the associations between variability in lipids and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes based on low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), the total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and triglycerides (TG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study included 125 047 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes aged 45-84 years without CVD during 2008-2012. The variability of LDL-C, TC to HDL-C and TG was determined using the standard deviation of variables in a mixed effects model to minimize regression dilution bias. The associations between variability in lipids and CVD and mortality risk were assessed by Cox regression. Subgroup analyses based on patients' baseline characteristics were also conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 19 913 CVD events and 15 329 mortalities were recorded after a median follow-up period of 77.5 months (0.8 million person-years), suggesting a positive linear relationship between variability in lipids and the risk of CVD and mortality. Each unit increase in the variability of LDL-C (mmol/L), the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG (mmol/L) was associated with a 27% (HR: 1.27 [95% CI: 1.20-1.34]), 31% (HR:1.31 [95% CI: 1.25-1.38]) and 9% (HR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.04-1.15]) increase in the risk of composite endpoint of CVD and mortality, respectively. Age-specific effects were also found when comparing LDL-C variability, with patients aged 45-54 years (HR: 1.70 [95% CI: 1.42-2.02]) exhibiting a 53% increased risk for the composite endpoints than those aged 75-84 years (HR: 1.11 [95% CI: 1.01-1.23]). Similar age effects were observed for both the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG variability. Significant associations remained consistent among most of the subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in respective lipids are significant factors in predicting CVD and mortality in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes, with the strongest effects related to LDL-C and the TC to HDL-C ratio and most significant in the younger age group of patients aged 45-54 years. Further study is warranted to confirm these findings.

Lipid levels and risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis

Lipid levels are closely associated with health, but whether lipid levels are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. We thought that blood lipid levels may influence new-onset AF. Here, we used a meta-analysis to examine the overall association between lipid levels and new-onset AF. PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched up to 20 December 2019. We conducted a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis of prospective studies to clarify the association between lipid levels and the risk of new-onset AF. Sixteen articles with data on 4 032 638 participants and 42 825 cases of AF were included in this meta-analysis. The summary relative risk (RR) for a 1 mmol/L increment in total cholesterol (TC) was 0.95 (95% CI 0.93-0.96, I² = 74.6%, n = 13). Subgroup analyses showed that follow-up time is a source of heterogeneity; for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), RR was 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.97, I² = 71.5%, n = 10). Subgroup analyses indicated that adjusting for heart failure explains the source of heterogeneity; for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), RR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.96-0.99, I² = 26.1%, n = 11); for triglycerides (TGs), RR was 1.00 (95% CI 0.96-1.03, I² = 81.1%, n = 8). Subgroup analysis showed that gender, age, follow-up time, and adjustment for heart failure are sources of heterogeneity. Higher levels of TC, LDL-C, and HDL-C were associated with lower risk of new-onset AF. TG levels were not associated with new-onset AF in all subjects.

High variability in bodyweight is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a nationwide cohort study

Background

Bodyweight variability is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to examine the relationship between bodyweight variability and the risk of AF in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), and whether this relationship was affected by baseline body mass index (BMI), weight change, or advanced diabetic stage.

Methods

A nationwide population-based cohort of 670,797 patients with type 2 DM from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database without a history of AF and with ≥ 3 measurements of bodyweight over a 5-year period were followed up for AF development. Intra-individual bodyweight variability was calculated using variability independent of mean, and high bodyweight variability was defined as the quintile with the highest variability with the lower four quintiles as reference.

Results

During a median of 7.0 years of follow-up, 22,019 patients (3.3%) newly developed AF. After multivariate adjustment, those in the highest quintile of bodyweight variability showed a higher risk of incident AF (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12–1.20) compared to those in the lower 4 quintiles with reference bodyweight variability, irrespective of baseline BMI group and direction of overall weight change. This association was greater in magnitude in subjects with lower BMI, those on insulin, and those with a DM duration of greater than 5 years. In sensitivity analyses, high bodyweight variability was consistently associated with AF development using other indices of variability and adjusting for glycemic variability.

Conclusions

High variability in bodyweight was associated with AF development, independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and baseline BMI. This association was stronger in underweight patients and with advanced diabetic stage. Weight fluctuation may interfere with the beneficial effects of weight loss and should be avoided when possible in weight control regimens for DM patients.

Effects of Cardiovascular Risk Factor Variability on Health Outcomes

Innumerable studies have suggested "the lower, the better" for cardiovascular risk factors, such as body weight, lipid profile, blood pressure, and blood glucose, in terms of health outcomes. However, excessively low levels of these parameters cause health problems, as seen in cachexia, hypoglycemia, and hypotension. Body weight fluctuation is related to mortality, diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, although contradictory findings have been reported. High lipid variability is associated with increased mortality and elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and dementia. High blood pressure variability is associated with increased mortality, myocardial infarction, hospitalization, and dementia, which may be caused by hypotension. Furthermore, high glucose variability, which can be measured by continuous glucose monitoring systems or self-monitoring of blood glucose levels, is associated with increased mortality, microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, and hypoglycemic events, leading to hospitalization. Variability in metabolic parameters could be affected by medications, such as statins, antihypertensives, and hypoglycemic agents, and changes in lifestyle patterns. However, other mechanisms modify the relationships between biological variability and various health outcomes. In this study, we review recent evidence regarding the role of variability in metabolic parameters and discuss the clinical implications of these findings.

Cardiovascular Research Using the Korean National Health Information Database

The Korean National Health Information Database (NHID) contains nationwide claims data, including sociodemographic data, health care utilization, health screening data, and healthcare provider information. To compensate for the limitations of randomized clinical trials, real-world observational studies using claims data have emerged as a novel research tool. We summarized the structure of the Korean NHID and the recent researches conducted in the field of cardiovascular science. Epidemiological studies, prescription patterns, temporal trends, comparison of effectiveness and safety of treatments, variability index using laboratory data, and rare intractable disease constitute interesting topics of research in cardiovascular science using the NHID. The operational definition of covariates and clinical outcomes is important for researchers interested in using the NHID data as new tools to prove their hypothesis. A step-by-step approach adopted by a team of data scientists, epidemiologists, statisticians, and clinical researchers may be most effective while designing research studies. The ultimate direction of research using the NHID should aim to improve the welfare of the public by promoting public health, reducing medical costs, and guiding healthcare policies.

Non-coronary atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia

Objective: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common autosomal dominant inherited disease, affecting 1 in 200-500 individuals worldwide. FH is characterized by elevated circulating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) concentrations. Its association with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) (>10-fold, compared with patients without FH) is well documented. However, the association between FH and non-CHD atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk has been poorly documented.Methods: PubMed was searched for English language publications regarding the association between FH and carotid artery stenosis, stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD; lower limbs and other arterial beds), aortic valve calcification (AoVC), aortic and renal artery disease, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure, from conception until 22 December 2019.Results: Despite the small number of available studies, as well as their characteristics (sample size, diagnostic criteria used, retrospective or cross-sectional design), there is evidence for a positive association between FH and stroke, PAD or AoVC. More data are needed for definitive conclusions regarding aortic and renal artery disease, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure. There is paucity of data with respect to homozygous FH. Increased lipoprotein (a) concentrations, often seen in FH patients, may also contribute to this non-CHD atherosclerotic process. A key question is whether statins or other LDL-C-lowering therapies, provide an additional reduction in the risk of these less-recognized vascular and non-vascular complications in FH patients.Conclusions: Heterozygous FH is associated with increased risk for stroke, PAD and AoVC. Clinicians should take these non-CHD ASCVD aspects into consideration for optimal management of FH patients.

Different Types of Atrial Fibrillation Share Patterns of Gut Microbiota Dysbiosis

Atrial fibrillation has been identified to be associated with disordered gut microbiota. Notably, atrial fibrillation is a progressive disease and could be categorized as paroxysmal and persistent based on the duration of the episodes. The persistent atrial fibrillation patients are accompanied by higher risk of stroke and lower success rate of rhythm control. However, the microbial signatures of different categories of atrial fibrillation patients remain unknown. We sought to determine whether disordered gut microbiota occurs in the self-terminating PAF or intestinal flora develops dynamically during atrial fibrillation progression. We found that different types of atrial fibrillation show a limited degree of gut microbiota shift. Gut microbiota dysbiosis has already occurred in mild stages of atrial fibrillation, which might act as an early modulator of disease, and therefore may be regarded as a potential target to postpone atrial fibrillation progression.

Dysbiotic gut microbiota (GM) and disordered metabolic patterns are known to be involved in the clinical expression of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, little evidence has been reported in characterizing the specific changes in fecal microbiota in paroxysmal AF (PAF) and persistent AF (psAF). To provide a comprehensive understanding of GM dysbiosis in AF types, we assessed the GM signatures of 30 PAF patients, 20 psAF patients, and 50 non-AF controls based on metagenomic and metabolomic analyses. Compared with control subjects, similar changes of GM were identified in PAF and psAF patients, with elevated microbial diversity and similar alteration in the microbiota composition. PAF and psAF patients shared the majority of differential taxa compared with non-AF controls. Moreover, the similarity was also illuminated in microbial function and associated metabolic alterations. Additionally, minor disparity was observed in PAF compared with psAF. Several distinctive taxa between PAF and psAF were correlated with certain metabolites and atrial diameter, which might play a role in the pathogenesis of atrial remodeling. Our findings characterized the presence of many common features in GM shared by PAF and psAF, which occurred at the self-terminating PAF. Preventative and therapeutic measures targeting GM for early intervention to postpone the progression of AF are highly warranted.

IMPORTANCE Atrial fibrillation has been identified to be associated with disordered gut microbiota. Notably, atrial fibrillation is a progressive disease and could be categorized as paroxysmal and persistent based on the duration of the episodes. The persistent atrial fibrillation patients are accompanied by higher risk of stroke and lower success rate of rhythm control. However, the microbial signatures of different categories of atrial fibrillation patients remain unknown. We sought to determine whether disordered gut microbiota occurs in the self-terminating PAF or intestinal flora develops dynamically during atrial fibrillation progression. We found that different types of atrial fibrillation show a limited degree of gut microbiota shift. Gut microbiota dysbiosis has already occurred in mild stages of atrial fibrillation, which might act as an early modulator of disease, and therefore may be regarded as a potential target to postpone atrial fibrillation progression.

Low Lipid Levels and High Variability are Associated With the Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

Background

While high levels of lipids and lipid variability are established risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, their roles in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) are unclear, with previous studies suggesting a “cholesterol paradox.”

Methods and Results

A nationwide population‐based cohort of 3 660 385 adults (mean age 43.4 years) from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, with ≥3 annual lipid measurements from 2009 to 2012 and without a history of AF or prescription of lipid‐lowering medication before 2012, were identified. Total cholesterol, low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides levels were measured, and lipid variability was calculated using variability independent of the mean. The cohort was divided into quartiles by lipid levels and lipid variability and followed up for incident AF. During a median 5.4 years of follow‐up, AF was newly diagnosed in 27 581 (0.75%). AF development was inversely associated with high lipid levels (for top versus bottom quartile; total cholesterol, HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.76–0.81; low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.78–0.84; high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91–0.98; triglycerides, HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.85–0.92). Meanwhile, AF development was associated with high lipid variability (for top versus bottom quartile; total cholesterol, HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06–1.13; low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.08–1.16; high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04–1.12; triglycerides, HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.08). Men showed greater risk reduction with high triglyceride levels and greater risk with high triglyceride variability for incident AF.

Conclusions

Low cholesterol levels and high cholesterol variability were associated with a higher risk of AF development.