Trajectories of Lipids Profile and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Risk: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

The promising role of Transcendental Meditation in the prevention and treatment of cardiometabolic diseases: A systematic review

Psychological distress has a demonstrable impact on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and risk factors. Transcendental Meditation (TM) has been shown to reduce stress and improve health and well-being. The current review aimed to synthesize the evidence on the effects of TM on cardiometabolic outcomes and identify gaps for future research. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science databases for relevant literature. Forty-five papers that reported studies of TM on cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases were included. Evidence shows that TM is effective in reducing blood pressure (BP). We found some evidence that TM can improve insulin resistance and may play a role in improving dyslipidemia, exercise tolerance, and myocardial blood flow, and in reducing carotid intima-media thickness and left ventricular mass. Studies show that long-term TM practice can reduce the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD mortality. This review identified that certain studies have high participant drop-out rates, and fewer studies targeted comprehensive cardiometabolic outcomes beyond BP with longer follow-up periods. We found that most studies were conducted in specific populations, which may limit generalizability. In conclusion, TM has the potential to improve cardiometabolic health; however, research gaps highlight the need for larger phase III multicenter clinical trials with long-term follow-ups.

HDL-Cholesterol Subfraction Dimensional Distribution Is Associated with Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Is Predicted by Visceral Adiposity and Dietary Lipid Intake in Women

HDL-cholesterol quality, including cholesterol distribution in HDL subfractions, is emerging as a key discriminant in dictating the effects of these lipoproteins on cardiovascular health. This study aims at elucidating the relationship between cholesterol distribution in HDL subfractions and CVD risk factors as well as diet quality and energy density in a population of pre- and postmenopausal women. Seventy-two women aged 52 ± 6 years were characterized metabolically and anthropometrically. Serum HDL-C subfractions were quantified using the Lipoprint HDL System. Cholesterol distribution in large HDL subfractions was lower in overweight individuals and study participants with moderate to high estimated CVD risk, hypertension, or insulin resistance. Cholesterol distribution in large, as opposed to small, HDL subfractions correlated negatively with insulin resistance, circulating triglycerides, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT). VAT was an independent positive and negative predictor of cholesterol distribution in large and small HDL subfractions, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in energy intake could predict a decrease in cholesterol levels in large HDL subfractions while lipid intake positively predicted cholesterol levels in small HDL subfractions. Cholesterol distribution in HDL subfractions may represent an additional player in shaping CVD risk and a novel potential mediator of the effect of diet on cardiovascular health.

Protocol for evaluating the effects of the Reducing Cardiometabolic Diseases Risk dietary pattern in the Chinese population with dyslipidaemia: a single-centre, open-label, dietary intervention study

INTRODUCTION

Cardiometabolic disease (CMD) is the leading cause of mortality in China. A healthy diet plays an essential role in the occurrence and development of CMD. Although the Chinese heart-healthy diet is the first diet with cardiovascular benefits, a healthy dietary pattern that fits Chinese food culture that can effectively reduce the risk of CMD has not been found.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study is a single-centre, open-label, randomised controlled trial aimed at evaluating the effect of the Reducing Cardiometabolic Diseases Risk (RCMDR) dietary pattern in reducing the risk of CMDs in people with dyslipidaemia and providing a reference basis for constructing a dietary pattern suitable for the prevention of CMDs in the Chinese population. Participants are men and women aged 35-45 years with dyslipidaemia in Tianjin. The target sample size is 100. After the run-in period, the participants will be randomised to the RCMDR dietary pattern intervention group or the general health education control group with a 1:1 ratio. The intervention phases will last 12 weeks, with a dietary intervention of 5 working days per week for participants in the intervention group. The primary outcome variable is the cardiometabolic risk score. The secondary outcome variables are blood lipid, blood pressure, blood glucose, body composition indices, insulin resistance and 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study complies with the Measures for Ethical Review of Life Sciences and Medical Research Involving Human Beings and the Declaration of Helsinki. Signed informed consent will be obtained from all participants. The study has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University (approval number: KY2023020). The results from the study will be disseminated through publications in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2300072472).

Clusters of longitudinal risk profile trajectories are associated with cardiometabolic diseases: Results from the population-based KORA cohort

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk.

METHODS

We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham).

CONCLUSIONS

On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

Optimization of time interval for the measurement of plasma lipids for cardiovascular disease risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Lipid testing for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is often performed every 4-6 years, but we hypothesized that the optimum time interval may vary depending on baseline risk.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using lipid values and other risk factors from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 9,704), we calculated a 10-year risk score with the pooled-cohort equations. Future risk scores were predicted by increasing age and projecting systolic blood pressure (SBP) and lipid changes, using the mean-percentile age group change in NHANES for SBP (n = 17,329) and the Lifelines Cohort study for lipids (n = 133,540). The crossing of high and intermediate-risk thresholds were calculated by time to determine optimum intervals for lipid testing.

RESULTS

Time to crossing risk thresholds depends on baseline risk, but the mean increase in the risk score plateaus at 1% per year for those with a baseline 10-year risk greater than 15%. Based on these findings, we recommend the following maximum time intervals for lipid testing: baseline risk < 15%: 5-years, 16%: 4-years, 17%: 3-years, 18%: 2-years, and 19%: ≤1-year.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing patients for lipids who have a higher baseline risk more often could identify high-risk patients sooner, allowing for earlier and more effective therapeutic intervention.

Tumor Marker Trajectories and Survival Analysis in Patients With Normal Carcinoembryonic Antigen Ranges After Colorectal Cancer Resection

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding postoperative CEA for predicting long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer remains controversial, especially in patients with normal postoperative CEA.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the risk difference among different postoperative CEA trajectories in patients with normal postoperative CEA after curative colorectal cancer resection.

DESIGN

This cohort study was conducted at a comprehensive cancer center and included data retrieved from a prospectively collected database between January 2006 and December 2018.

SETTINGS

Retrospective cohort study.

PATIENTS

Patients with colorectal cancer who underwent surgery for primary stage I to III colorectal adenocarcinoma were included and those with postoperative CEA >5 ng/mL were excluded.

INTERVENTIONS

Standard curative radical resection was performed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Ten-year overall survival and disease-free survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

The study population (n = 8156) was categorized into 6 trajectories: persistent-ultralow (n = 2351), persistent-low (n = 2474), gradually decrease (n = 401), persistent-medium (n = 1727), slightly increase (n = 909), and around-upper-limit (n = 394). The median follow-up time was 7.8 years, and the median time frame in which CEA was measured to determine trajectory was 2.6 years. The persistent-ultralow group had the highest 10-year overall survival (85.1%) and disease-free survival (82.7%). The around-upper-limit group had the lowest 10-year overall survival (55.5%) and disease-free survival (53.4%). The adjusted HR trend was comparable to the crude HR of the persistent-ultralow group. Consequently, the higher initial serum CEA groups had higher HRs of overall survival and disease-free survival. The adjusted HR of overall survival was 2.96 (95% CI, 2.39-3.66) and of disease-free survival was 2.66 (95% CI, 2.18-3.69) for the around-upper-limit groups.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective design.

CONCLUSIONS

The postoperative serum CEA trajectory is an independent factor associated with long-term outcomes. Although CEA levels were all within normal range, higher levels of postoperative serum CEA trajectory correlated with worse long-term oncological outcomes. See Video Abstract.

TRAYECTORIAS DE MARCADORES TUMORALES Y ANLISIS DE SUPERVIVENCIA EN PACIENTES CON RANGOS NORMALES DE ANTGENO CARCINOEMBRIONARIO POSTERIOR A RESECCIN DE CNCER COLORRECTAL

ANTECEDENTES:La evidencia sobre el CEA post operatorio para la predicción de los resultados a largo plazo del cáncer colorrectal sigue siendo controversial, especialmente en pacientes con CEA post quirúrgico normal.OBJETIVO:Investigar la diferencia de riesgo entre diferentes trayectorias postoperatorias del CEA en pacientes con CEA post quirúrgico normal tras la resección curativa del cáncer colorrectal.DISEÑO:Este estudio de cohorte se realizó en un centro oncológico integral e incluyó datos recuperados de una base de datos recopilada prospectivamente entre enero de 2006 y diciembre de 2018.AJUSTES:Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo.PACIENTES:Se incluyeron pacientes con el diagnostico de CCR que fueron sometidos a cirugía por adenocarcinoma colorrectal primario en estadio I-III. Se excluyeron pacientes con CEA postoperatorio >5 ng/mL.INTERVENCIONES:Se realizó una resección radical curativa estandarizada.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE RESULTADO:Se analizaron la supervivencia general a diez años y la supervivencia libre de enfermedad.RESULTADOS:La población de estudio (n = 8156) fue clasificada en seis trayectorias, que incluyeron ultrabajo persistente (n = 2351), bajo persistente (n = 2474), disminución gradual (n = 401), medio persistente (n = 1727), aumento leve (n = 909) y alrededor del límite superior (n = 394). La mediana del tiempo de seguimiento fue de 7,8 años y la mediana del período de tiempo en el que el CEA fue medido para determinar la trayectoria fue de 2,6 años. El grupo ultrabajo persistente tuvo la mayor supervivencia general a 10 años (85,1 %) y supervivencia libre de enfermedad (82,7 %). El grupo alrededor del límite superior tuvo la supervivencia general a 10 años más baja (55,5 %) y la supervivencia libre de enfermedad (53,4 %). La tendencia del índice de riesgo ajustado fue comparable al índice de riesgo bruto del grupo ultrabajo persistente. En consecuencia, los grupos con CEA sérico iniciales más altos tenían índices de riesgos más altos de supervivencia general y supervivencia libre de enfermedad. Los índices de riesgos ajustados de supervivencia general/supervivencia libre de enfermedad fueron 2,96/2,66 (intervalo de confianza del 95 %: 2,39-3,66/2,18-3,69) para los grupos cercanos al límite superior.LIMITACIONES:El estudio estuvo limitado por su diseño retrospectivo.CONCLUSIONES:La trayectoria del CEA sérico postoperatorio es un factor independiente asociado con resultados a largo plazo. Aunque los niveles de CEA se encontraban todos dentro del rango normal, los niveles más altos de trayectoria del CEA en suero posoperatorio se correlacionaron con peores resultados oncológicos a largo plazo. (Traducción-Dr Osvaldo Gauto ).

The 30-year cardiovascular risk trajectories and their independently associated factors in participants of a Brazilian cohort (CUME Study)

We aimed to analyze the different trajectories of 30-year cardiovascular risk (CVR) and its independently associated factors in participants of the CUME Study, a prospective study with alumni from federal universities of Minas Gerais State, Brazil. In this study, 1,286 participants who answered the baseline (2016) and follow-up (2018 and 2020) questionnaires were included. Trajectories of CVR, according to the Framingham score, were identified with the latent class growth modelling technique with the use of the censored normal model. Analysis of the factors independently associated with each of the trajectories was conducted with multinomial logistic regression technique. Three CVR trajectories were identified: Low-Low (68.3%), Medium-Medium (26.2%), and High-High (5.5%). Male sex, living in a stable union, and having moderate and high intakes of ultra-processed foods were positively associated with the Medium-Medium and High-High CVR trajectories. Having non-healthcare professional training and working were positively associated with the Medium-Medium CVR trajectory, whereas being physically active was negatively associated with the High-High CVR trajectory. In conclusion, more than one-third of participants had CVR trajectories in the Medium-Medium and High-High categories. Food consumption and physical activity are modifiable factors that were associated with these trajectories; thus, implementing health promotion measures could help prevent the persistence or worsen of CVR. On the other hand, sociodemographic and labor characteristics are non-modifiable factors that were associated with Medium-Medium and High-High trajectories, which could help identify people who should be monitored with more caution by health services.

Lipid Levels During Adult Lifetime in Men and Women With and Without a Subsequent Incident Myocardial Infarction: A Longitudinal Analysis of Data From the Tromsø Study 1974 to 2016

Background The atherosclerotic effect of an adverse lipid profile is assumed to accumulate throughout life, leading to increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Still, little is known about age at onset and duration of unfavorable lipid levels before MI. Methods and Results Longitudinal data on serum lipid levels for 26 130 individuals (50.5% women, aged 20-89 years) were obtained from 7 population-based health surveys in Tromsø, Norway. Diagnoses of MI were obtained from national registers. A linear mixed model was applied to compare age- and sex-specific mean values of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride concentration by MI status (MI versus non-MI). Already from young adulthood, 20 to 35 years before the incident MI, individuals with a subsequent incident MI had on average more adverse lipid levels than individuals of the same age and sex without MI. Analogous to a dose-response relationship, there was a clear trend toward more severe adverse lipid levels the lower the age at incident MI (P<0.001, test for trend through ordered categories <55, 55-74, ≥75 years). This trend was particularly pronounced for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in percentage of total cholesterol (both sexes) and for the relative relationship between triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol level (women). The difference in mean lipid level by MI status was just as large in women as in men, but the age pattern differed (P≤0.05, tests of 3-way interaction). Conclusions Compared with general population mean levels, adverse lipid levels were seen 20 to 35 years before the incident MI in both men and women.

Association of Multitrajectories of Lipid Indices With Premature Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study

Background The multitrajectory model can identify joint longitudinal patterns of different lipids simultaneously, which might help better understand the heterogeneous risk of premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and facilitate targeted prevention programs. This study aimed to investigate the associations between multitrajectories of lipids with premature CVD. Methods and Results The study enrolled 78 526 participants from the Kailuan study, a prospective cohort study in Tangshan, China. Five distinct multitrajectories of triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol over 6-year exposure were identified on the basis of Nagin's criteria, using group-based multitrajectory modeling. During a median follow-up of 6.75 years (507 645.94 person-years), 665 (0.85%) premature CVDs occurred. After adjustment for confounders, the highest risk of premature CVD was observed in group 4 (the highest and increasing triglyceride, optimal and decreasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13 [95% CI, 1.36-3.32]), followed by group 5 (high and decreasing triglyceride, optimal and increasing LDL-C, low and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 2.07 [95% CI, 1.45-2.98]), and group 3 (optimal and increasing triglyceride, borderline high and increasing LDL-C, optimal and decreasing high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) (HR, 1.90 [95% CI, 1.32-2.73]). Conclusions Our results showed that the residual risk of premature CVD caused by increasing triglyceride levels remained high despite the fact that LDL-C levels were optimal or declining over time. These findings emphasized the importance of assessing the joint longitudinal patterns of lipids and undertaking potential interventions on triglyceride lowering to reduce the residual risk of premature CVD, even among individuals with optimal LDL-C levels.

Prenatal Exposure to Legacy and Alternative Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances and Neuropsychological Development Trajectories over the First 3 Years of Life

The neurotoxic effects of prenatal exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) on offspring animals are well-documented. However, epidemiological evidence for legacy PFAS is inconclusive, and for alternative PFAS, it is little known. In this investigation, we selected 718 mother-child pairs from the Chinese Maoming Birth Cohort Study and measured 17 legacy and alternative PFAS in the third-trimester serum. Neuropsychological developments (communication, gross motor function, fine motor function, problem solving ability, and personal-social skills) were assessed at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months using the Ages and Stages Questionnaires 3rd edition. Trajectories of each subscale were classified into persistently low and persistently high groups via group-based trajectory modeling. Logistic regression and grouped weighted quantile sum were fitted to assess the potential effects of individual PFAS and their mixtures, respectively. Higher linear PFHxS levels were associated with elevated odds for the persistently low trajectories of communication (OR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.12, 2.66) and problem solving ability (OR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.14, 3.90). Similar findings were observed for linear PFOS, 1m-PFOS, PFDA, PFDoDA, PFUnDA, and legacy PFAS mixture. However, no association was observed for alternative PFAS and their mixture. We provided insights into the longitudinal links between prenatal legacy/alternative PFAS exposure and neuropsychological development trajectories over the first 3 years of life.

Longitudinal metabolomics of increasing body-mass index and waist-hip ratio reveals two dynamic patterns of obesity pandemic

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

This observational study dissects the complex temporal associations between body-mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR) and circulating metabolomics using a combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional population-based datasets and new systems epidemiology tools.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Firstly, a data-driven subgrouping algorithm was employed to simplify high-dimensional metabolic profiling data into a single categorical variable: a self-organizing map (SOM) was created from 174 metabolic measures from cross-sectional surveys (FINRISK, n = 9708, ages 25-74) and a birth cohort (NFBC1966, n = 3117, age 31 at baseline, age 46 at follow-up) and an expert committee defined four subgroups of individuals based on visual inspection of the SOM. Secondly, the subgroups were compared regarding BMI and WHR trajectories in an independent longitudinal dataset: participants of the Young Finns Study (YFS, n = 1286, ages 24-39 at baseline, 10 years follow-up, three visits) were categorized into the four subgroups and subgroup-specific age-dependent trajectories of BMI, WHR and metabolic measures were modelled by linear regression.

RESULTS

The four subgroups were characterised at age 39 by high BMI, WHR and dyslipidemia (designated TG-rich); low BMI, WHR and favourable lipids (TG-poor); low lipids in general (Low lipid) and high low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (High LDL-C). Trajectory modelling of the YFS dataset revealed a dynamic BMI divergence pattern: despite overlapping starting points at age 24, the subgroups diverged in BMI, fasting insulin (three-fold difference at age 49 between TG-rich and TG-poor) and insulin-associated measures such as triglyceride-cholesterol ratio. Trajectories also revealed a WHR progression pattern: despite different starting points at the age of 24 in WHR, LDL-C and cholesterol-associated measures, all subgroups exhibited similar rates of change in these measures, i.e. WHR progression was uniform regardless of the cross-sectional metabolic profile.

CONCLUSIONS

Age-associated weight variation in adults between 24 and 49 manifests as temporal divergence in BMI and uniform progression of WHR across metabolic health strata.

Effects of Combined Interventions of Exercise and Diet or Exercise and Supplementation on Breast Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review

This systematic review investigated the effects of exercise interventions combined with diet and/or dietary supplement interventions on anthropometry, body composition, metabolic biomarkers, physical function, healthy lifestyles, quality of life, psychosocial variables and fatigue for women with breast cancer. A systematic search was performed in the PubMed and Web of Science databases (from inception to 1 March 2022). A review was carried out following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The methodological quality and the risk of bias of the included studies was assessed with the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale. A total of 13 randomised controlled trial studies were included, comprising 1569 breast cancer patients. The main finding of this systematic review is that groups performing interventions combining exercise plus diet show significant improvements in cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength, body composition, quality of life, fatigue, anxiety, depression and sleep compared to control groups. On the other hand, the use of interventions combining exercise plus supplementation does not result in an improvement compared to groups using exercise alone or supplementation alone.

Multi-trajectories of systolic and diastolic hypertension and coronary heart disease in middle-aged and older adults

Objective

This study aimed to investigate multi-trajectories of systolic and diastolic hypertension and assess their association with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Methods

The study cohort comprised 4,102 individuals aged 40-75 years with records of at least four systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). A group-based multi-trajectory model was adopted to identify multi-trajectories of systolic and diastolic hypertension, followed by a logistic model to assess the independent associations between these trajectories and CHD risk. The multinomial logistic model was used to evaluate the impact of baseline covariates on trajectory groups.

Results

Six distinct trajectories for systolic and diastolic hypertension were identified which represent distinct stages of hypertension and were characterized as low-stable, low-increasing, medium-decreasing, medium-increasing-decreasing, isolated systolic hypertension phase, and high-decreasing. Compared with the low-stable group, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 2.23 (1.34-3.70) for the medium-increasing-decreasing group and 1.87 (1.12-3.11) for the high-decreasing group after adjustment for baseline covariates. Compared with the low-increasing group, the ORs and 95% CIs were 1.88 (1.06-3.31) for the medium-increasing-decreasing group. Age, gender, drinking, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride (TG), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were independent predictors for trajectory groups 4 and 6.

Conclusion

Novel, clinically defined multi-trajectories of systolic and diastolic hypertension were identified. Middle-aged and older adults with medium-increasing-decreasing or high-decreasing blood pressure trajectories are potentially critical periods for the development of CHD. Preventing adverse changes in hypertension status and reducing the high risk of CHD is necessary for people in distinct trajectory groups.

Associations of Hypertriglyceridemia Onset Age With Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in Adults: A Cohort Study

Background Limited studies have involved new-onset hypertriglyceridemia, and this study was to evaluate the associations of hypertriglyceridemia onset age with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality. Methods and Results This population-based prospective study enrolled 98 779 participants free of hypertriglyceridemia and CVD at baseline in the Kailuan study initiated in June 2006. All participants underwent health checkups biennially until December 2017, and a total of 13 832 participants developed new hypertriglyceridemia. A 1:1 age- (±1 year) and sex-matched analysis was applied to select control subject of the same year for each new-onset case. There were 13 056 case-control pairs included. The total follow-up time was 179 409 person-years, with a median follow-up time of 7.0 years. Primary outcomes were CVD and all-cause mortality, and hazard ratios were estimated after adjustment for baseline characteristics. A total of 807 incident CVD events and 600 all-cause mortality events were documented. After multivariable adjustment, participants with hypertriglyceridemia onset age <45 years had the highest risk compared with matched controls, with hazard ratios of 2.61 (95% CI, 1.59-4.27) for CVD, 4.69 (95% CI, 2.34-9.40) for all-cause mortality, 2.23 (95% CI, 0.67-7.38) for myocardial infarction, and 2.68 (95% CI, 1.56-4.62) for stroke. The risk estimates gradually decreased with each decade increase in the onset age of hypertriglyceridemia. Conclusions Among Chinese adults, hypertriglyceridemia identified at an earlier onset age was associated with higher risks for CVD and all-cause mortality.

Associations Between Life-Course Lipid Trajectories and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Midlife

IMPORTANCE

Childhood lipid levels have been associated with adult subclinical atherosclerosis; however, life-course lipid trajectories and their associations with cardiovascular disease risk are poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations of lipid levels at different ages and discrete lipid trajectory patterns from childhood to adulthood with subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study conducted in a semirural, biracial community in Bogalusa, Louisiana, with follow-up from 1973 to 2016 (median follow-up, 36.8 years). Participants had 4 to 16 repeated measurements of lipids, including total cholesterol (TC), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), from childhood to midlife and adult measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). Statistical analyses were conducted from July 1 to December 31, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Age-specific lipid levels were estimated, and lipid trajectory patterns were identified using latent mixture modeling.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Subclinical atherosclerosis measured by carotid IMT.

RESULTS

The study evaluated 1201 adults (mean [SD] age, 45.7 [6.8] years; 691 [57.5%] women and 510 [42.5%] men; 392 Black [32.6%] and 809 White [67.4%] individuals). Levels of all lipids at each age from 5 to 45 years were significantly associated with adult IMT. The magnitude of associations generally increased with age, and non-HDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.040; 95% CI, 0.025-0.055; age 45 y, β, 0.049; 95% CI, 0.026-0.072) and LDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.039; 95% CI, 0.024-0.054; age 45 y, β, 0.043; 95% CI, 0.023-0.063) showed the strongest associations. After adjusting for race, sex, and other cardiovascular risk factors, mean IMT values were significantly higher in the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, and high-stable trajectory groups for TC (eg, high-stable group: mean difference, 0.152 mm; 95% CI, 0.059-0.244 mm), the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, moderate-stable, and high-stable trajectory groups for non-HDL-C (eg, low-slow increase group: mean difference, 0.048 mm; 95% CI, 0.012-0.085 mm) and LDL-C (eg, low-rapid increase group: mean difference, 0.104 mm; 95% CI, 0.056-0.151 mm) and the low-rapid increase and moderate-stable trajectory groups for TG (eg, moderate-stable group: mean difference, 0.071 mm; 95% CI, 0.019-0.122 mm) vs the corresponding low-stable trajectory groups. These associations were slightly attenuated after further adjustment for lipid levels at baseline or follow-up. There were no significant differences in mean IMT among HDL-C trajectory groups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, discrete life-course lipid trajectories were associated with the development of atherosclerosis in midlife. The findings emphasize the importance of maintaining optimal lipid levels across the lifespan.

Differences in plasma lipoprotein profiles between patients with chronic peripheral neuropathic pain and healthy controls: an exploratory pilot study

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Lipoprotein profiles were significantly different between patients with chronic peripheral neuropathic pain and healthy controls, indicative of ongoing systemic low-grade inflammation among the patients.

Introduction:

Little is still known about the underlying mechanisms that drive and maintain neuropathic pain (NeuP). Recently, lipids have been implicated as endogenous proalgesic ligands affecting onset and maintenance of pain; however, in the case of NeuP, the relationship is largely unexplored.

Objectives:

The aim of this study was to investigate the lipoprotein profile in patients with chronic peripheral NeuP compared with healthy controls.

Methods:

The concentrations of 112 lipoprotein fractions in plasma from patients with NeuP (n = 16) and healthy controls (n = 13) were analyzed using proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A multiplex immunoassay based on an electrochemiluminescent detection method was used to measure the concentration of 71 cytokines in plasma from patients with NeuP (n = 10) and healthy controls (n = 11). Multivariate data analysis was used to identify patterns of protein intercorrelations and proteins significant for group discrimination.

Results:

We found 23 lipoproteins that were significantly upregulated in patients with NeuP compared with healthy controls. When the influence of cytokines was included in a regression model, 30 proteins (8 cytokines and 22 lipoprotein fractions) were significantly upregulated or downregulated in patients with NeuP. Both conditions presented lipoprotein profiles consistent with inflammation. Body mass index did not affect lipoprotein profiles in either group. No relationship between age and lipoprotein pattern was found in NeuP, but a significant relationship was found in healthy controls.

Conclusion:

Patients with NeuP presented a lipoprotein profile consistent with systemic low-grade inflammation, like that seen in autoimmune, cardiometabolic, and neuroprogressive diseases. These preliminary results emphasize the importance of chronic low-grade inflammation in NeuP.

Trajectories of Lipid Profile and Risk of Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background: Early assessment of carotid atherosclerotic plaque characteristics is essential for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification and prediction. We aimed to identify different trajectories of lipid profiles and investigate the association of lipid trajectories with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression in a large, longitudinal cohort of the Chinese population. Methods: 10,412 participants aged ≥18 years with ≥2 times general health checkups were included in this longitudinally prospective cohort study at Peking University Third Hospital. We used latent class trajectory models to identify trajectories of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) over follow-up time (757 days, IQR: 388–844 days). Results: Participants with carotid plaque were more likely to be older, male, have higher body mass index, have a higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, and have a higher level of blood pressure, TG, TC, and LDL-C, compared with carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and normal group. Subjects were trichotomized according to different trajectory patterns into stable, moderate-stable, and elevated-increasing classes. TC ≥ 5.18 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (hazard ratio (HR): 1.416, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.285–1.559, p: 0.000), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (HR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.163–1.913, p: 0.002), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and elevated-increasing class (HR: 1.218, 95% CI: 1.094–1.357, p: 0.000), LDL-C ≥ 3.36 mmol/L and stable class (HR: 1.500, 95% CI: 1.361–1.653, p: 0.000) were statistically significant associated with CAS progression compared with the reference group. Conclusions: Borderline elevated baseline lipid (TC, TG, and LDL-C) with stable and elevated-increasing trajectories were associated with CAS progression. Long-term strategies for low-level lipid are beneficial for ASCVD management.

PDAY risk score predicts cardiovascular events in young adults: the CARDIA study

AIMS

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction equations apply to older adults. For this study, the Pathobiologic Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) risk score, based on post-mortem measurements of atherosclerosis in 15-34-year olds dying accidentally, was used to predict ASCVD events, specifically myocardial infarction and revascularization, in middle age, from risk measured at ≤40 years of age.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (CARDIA) collected longitudinal cardiovascular risk data, coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and ASCVD data beginning at age 18 and 30 years with 30-year follow-up. Predictive accuracy for ASCVD of the PDAY risk score, calculated at baseline (mean age 24) and at all six CARDIA examinations up until year 15, was examined. We also examined whether the presence of CAC improved model discrimination. The cohort for this study comprised 5004 Black and White men and women, at baseline and 3558 with data at year 15. Each standard deviation increase in PDAY score, at each examination, was significantly associated with future ASCVD. Hazard ratios (per standard deviation) increased from 1.74 to 2.04 from year 0 to year 15. C-statistics ranged from 0.771 to 0.794. Coronary artery calcium measurement at age 33-45 years improved risk prediction only if the score was 0. Cumulative risk exposure over the first 15 years of the CARDIA study also had high-predictive value (c-statistic 0.798, 95% confidence interval 0.762-0.835).

CONCLUSION

The PDAY risk score may be used in young adults, prior to age 40 years to predict ASCVD events.

Trajectory of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with chronic kidney disease and its association with cardiovascular disease

Background

The role of longitudinal temporal trends in LDL-C in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes is unclear. This study categorized the long-term LDL-C trajectory and determined its association with the incidence of atherosclerotic CVD in patients with CKD according to diabetes status and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

Methods

The risk of atherosclerotic CVD was estimated in 137,127 Taiwanese patients with CKD using six LDL-C trajectory classes determined by the latent class mixed model as optimal, near optimal, above optimal, borderline, sustained high, and declined high over 5 years.

Results

The risk of CVD was higher in the sustained high LDL-C [>160 mg/dL over time; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.45–1.94], declined high LDL-C (>160 to <100 mg/dL; aHR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.11–1.38), and borderline LDL-C (approximately 140 mg/dL over time; aHR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.07–1.26) groups than in the optimal LDL-C group (<100 mg/dL over time). There was no such association in patients with an eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m². Persistent diabetes was associated with a 1.15–2.47-fold increase in CVD in patients with high LDL-C (>120 mg/dL).

Conclusion

The LDL-C trajectory pattern was associated with the phenotype of CVD risk. The degree of risk varied according to eGFR and diabetes status. A stable low LDL-C over time was potentially beneficial for prevention of CVD. Intensive lipid management and periodic assessment of LDL-C is essential to reduce the risk of CVD in patients with CKD and diabetes.

Effects of antipsychotics on triglyceride trajectories and its implications in CVD: A longitudinal cohort study

Background

Although the association between short-term antipsychotics exposure and triglycerides (TG) levels has been confirmed, the effects of long-term antipsychotics exposure on TG trajectories and its implications in cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains largely unknown.

Methods

A total of 39,988 participants with at least 3 TG measurements between January 2014 and February 2021 were included in this longitudinal study, with a median follow-up was 4.48 years. A latent class growth mixed model (LCGMM) was used to identify TG trajectories. Based on the LCGMM parameters, we calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and estimated the effect of antipsychotics on AUC and TG trajectory slopes. The primary outcome was CVD events. We also investigated and compared the association between antipsychotics and CVD in subgroups stratified by TG trajectory and TG levels.

Findings

A total of 11,543 CVD events were documented and the incidence density was 64.64 per 1000 person-years. We identified two TG trajectories labeled as inverse-U shape (30.77%, n=12306) and low-decreasing (69.23%, n=27682). The antipsychotic exposure increased total AUC by 13% and increased the slopes of TG trajectories before age 48 years. In the inverse-U and low-decreasing group, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for antipsychotics associated with CVD were 1.40 (1.21-1.62) and 1.29 (1.14-1.45), respectively, and the difference between the two trajectory groups become larger with the increase of the antipsychotic exposure. The association of antipsychotics with CVD (HR=1.72, 95%CI: 1.36-2.19) in inverse-U trajectory and high TG group was stronger than that in other subgroups.

Interpretation

Long-term antipsychotic exposure increased the TG burden and TG increase rate early in life. The strength of the association between antipsychotics and CVD risk in the inverse-U group was stronger than that in the low-decreasing group.

Funding

The National Key Research and Development Program of China, Shandong Province Major Science and Technology Innovation Project, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Association between Atherogenic Index and Cholesterol to HDL Ratio in COVID-19 Patients During the Initial Phase of Infection

This case-control study aimed to assess pathologic alteration in the serum levels of the atherogenic index, cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio, HDL cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglyceride, HbA1c, and glucose in 158 COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized in Erbil international hospital, Erbil, Iraq, between January and May 2020, in the early stage of infection. The patients were confirmed for SARS-CoV-2 on admission. The laboratory test results were compared between this group and a group of healthy individuals (n=158). A statistically significant difference was found between the studied factors in healthy controls and COVID-19 patients, except for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (P=0.13). In the case of COVID-19 patients, total levels of cholesterol and HDL cholesterol were significantly lower than controls (P<0.003). Triglyceride, VLDL cholesterol, atherogenic index, and total cholesterol to HDL ratio were found to be significantly higher in COVID-19 patients, compared to controls (P<0.005). Atherogenic index were found to be positively correlated with triglyceride (r=0.88, P=0.00), HbA1C (r=0.6, P=0.05), and glucose index (r= 0.62, P= 0.05), and the ratio of cholesterol to HDL (r=0.64, P=0.04). In contrast, no correlation was found between atherogenic index and cholesterol to HDL ratio in controls. The results of the current study indicated that risk factors for the cardiovascular disease increased in patients with COVID-19 infection, which included atherogenic index, cholesterol to HDL ratio, as well as the association between atherogenic index, and all were organized in one cluster. Therefore, lipids can perform a vital physiological function in patients infected with COVID-19.

The profile of HDL-C subfractions and their association with cardiovascular risk in the Hungarian general and Roma populations

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is not a homogenous lipid fraction, but it can be further divided into subfractions. It is well-known that the Roma population has a high prevalence of reduced HDL-C levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, it is unknown how this reduction affects different HDL subfractions, and whether changes in their quantity/representation are associated with an increased cardiovascular risk among them. In the present study, the HDL subfraction profile of the Hungarian general (HG) and the Roma populations were compared, and the subfractions showing a significant difference between the two populations were identified. The association of HDL subfractions with CVD risk estimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms were also defined. The present study is the first to find a significant association between HDL subfractions and cardiovascular risk estimated by FRS and SCORE. Ten HDL subfractions were investigated on small but carefully selected samples comprising 100 control subjects (with normal lipid profile) and 277 case subjects (with reduced HDL-C levels) from HG and Roma populations of a complex health survey. The level of HDL-1 to 3 subfractions and HDL-L showed a significant inverse association with cardiovascular risk estimated by both SCORE and FRS algorithms, whereas HDL-4 to 6 and HDL-I only for FRS. A higher representation (in %) of HDL-1 to 3 has a significant risk-reducing effect, while HDL-8 to 10 has a risk-increasing effect estimated by FRS. Our results confirmed that reduced levels of HDL-6 and -7 expressed in mmol/L were significantly associated with Roma ethnicity.

Dynamic trajectory of platelet counts after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy in AML patients

Background

Platelet counts varied over time after induction chemotherapy. We aimed to investigate the different trajectories of platelet counts after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy in patients newly diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia.

Methods and results

In total, 149 individuals were included in this study. We identified four distinct trajectories using a group-based trajectory model: low- stability group (n = 27, 18.12%), low-level decrease–medium elevation group (n = 42, 28.19%), low-level decrease–high elevation group (n = 60, 40.27%), and high-level decrease–medium elevation group (n = 20, 13.42%). The baseline characteristics of the high-level decrease–medium elevation group included higher platelet count, lower white blood cell count, lower percentage of bone marrow blasts, and lower rates of complete remission after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy. Compared with the low-stability group, the hazard ratios were 0.32 (95% confidence interval, 0.15–0.68) for the low-level decrease–medium elevation group, 0.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.15–0.63) for the low-level decrease–high elevation group, and 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.13–0.89) for the high-level decrease–medium elevation group after adjustment for age and gender by Cox proportional hazard regression. Compared with the low-stability group, the hazard ratios were 0.33 (95% confidence interval, 0.14–0.77) for the low-level decrease–medium elevation group and 0.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.14–0.67) for the low-level decrease–high elevation group after adjustment for age, gender, white blood cell count, and bone marrow blasts. These associations persisted after adjusting for age, gender, white blood cell count, bone marrow blasts, and platelet count.

Conclusion

The dynamic trajectory of platelet counts after the first cycle of induction chemotherapy is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with acute myeloid leukemia. Timely intervention should be considered for the low-stability group. The low-level decrease–medium elevation and low-level decrease-high elevation groups were independent protective factors for all-cause mortality.

Adipocyte Phenotype Flexibility and Lipid Dysregulation

The prevalence of obesity and associated cardiometabolic diseases continues to rise, despite efforts to improve global health. The adipose tissue is now regarded as an endocrine organ since its multitude of secretions, lipids chief among them, regulate systemic functions. The loss of normal adipose tissue phenotypic flexibility, especially related to lipid homeostasis, appears to trigger cardiometabolic pathogenesis. The goal of this manuscript is to review lipid balance maintenance by the lean adipose tissue’s propensity for phenotype switching, obese adipose tissue’s narrower range of phenotype flexibility, and what initial factors account for the waning lipid regulatory capacity. Metabolic, hypoxic, and inflammatory factors contribute to the adipose tissue phenotype being made rigid. A better grasp of normal adipose tissue function provides the necessary context for recognizing the extent of obese adipose tissue dysfunction and gaining insight into how pathogenesis evolves.

The association between trajectories of risk factors and risk of cardiovascular disease or mortality among patients with diabetes or hypertension: A systematic review

Introduction

Cardiometabolic risk factors and renal function are monitored regularly for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM)/ hypertension (HT). In addition to risk factor levels at a single time point, their trajectory (changes over time) can also be differentially related to the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and mortality. This study aimed to systematically examine the evidence regarding the association between risk factor trajectories and risk of CVD/mortality in patients with DM/HT.

Method

PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase were searched for articles from January 1963 to April 2021. Inclusion criteria: studies that 1) analyzed trajectories of risk factors including haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), body mass index (BMI), and blood lipids; 2) were performed in the DM/HT population and, 3) included risk of CVD/mortality as outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale.

Results

A total of 22,099 articles were identified. After screening by title and abstract, 22,027 articles were excluded by irrelevant outcomes, exposure, population, or type of articles. Following full-text screening, 11 articles investigating the trajectories of HbA1c (N = 7), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (N = 3), and eGFR (N = 1) were included for data extraction and analysis. No studies were identified examining the association of BMI or lipid trajectories with CVD/mortality. All included studies were of good quality based on the NOS criteria. In general, stable trajectories within optimal ranges of the risk factors (HbA1c: <7%, SBP: 120-139mmHg, eGFR: >60mL/min/1.73m²) had the lowest CVD/mortality risk compared to an increasing HbA1c trajectory (from 8% to 10%), an increasing SBP trajectory (from 120–139 to ≥140mmHg), or a decreasing eGFR trajectory (from 90 to 70mL/min/1.73m²).

Conclusion

A relatively stable and well-controlled trajectory for cardiometabolic risk factors was associated with the lowest risk of CVD/mortality. Risk factor trajectories have important clinical implications in addition to single time point measurements. More attention should be given to patients with suboptimal control and those with unstable trends of cardiometabolic risk factors.

Distinct patterns of fasting plasma glucose and lipid profile levels over time in adults tested positive for HIV on HAART in Shanghai, China, revealed using growth mixture models

Objectives

This study sought to identify potential change patterns and predictors of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and lipid levels after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 1,572 patients tested positive for HIV who initiated HAART between January 2010 and October 2020 in Shanghai, China. The growth mixture models (GMM) were used for capturing subgroups of FPG trajectories as well as triglyceride (TG) and total cholesterol (TC) dual-trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression models identified correlates of given trajectories.

Results

The median follow-up time was 2.0 years (IQR 1.0-4.7). Three FPG trajectory subgroups were identified as FPG low-stable (62.3%), medium-stable (30.5%), and high-increasing (7.2%). Furthermore, three subgroups of TG and TC dual-trajectories were identified as TG and TC high-slight increasing (13.7%), low-rapid increasing (27.6%), and a subgroup of medium-stable TC and slight-decreasing TG (58.7%). Older age, high TG, FPG, BMI, CD4 count of <200 at baseline, and initial use of zidovudine (AZT) and protease inhibitors (PIs) helped to identify the class with increasing glucose or lipid metabolism trajectories.

Conclusion

The change patterns of plasma glucose and lipid in patients tested positive for HIV were heterogeneous and tailored interventions should be considered in specific subgroups.

Modelling of longitudinal data to predict cardiovascular disease risk: a methodological review

OBJECTIVE

The identification of methodology for modelling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using longitudinal data and risk factor trajectories.

METHODS

We screened MEDLINE-Ovid from inception until 3 June 2020. MeSH and text search terms covered three areas: data type, modelling type and disease area including search terms such as "longitudinal", "trajector*" and "cardiovasc*" respectively. Studies were filtered to meet the following inclusion criteria: longitudinal individual patient data in adult patients with ≥3 time-points and a CVD or mortality outcome. Studies were screened and analyzed by one author. Any queries were discussed with the other authors. Comparisons were made between the methods identified looking at assumptions, flexibility and software availability.

RESULTS

From the initial 2601 studies returned by the searches 80 studies were included. Four statistical approaches were identified for modelling the longitudinal data: 3 (4%) studies compared time points with simple statistical tests, 40 (50%) used single-stage approaches, such as including single time points or summary measures in survival models, 29 (36%) used two-stage approaches including an estimated longitudinal parameter in survival models, and 8 (10%) used joint models which modelled the longitudinal and survival data together. The proportion of CVD risk prediction models created using longitudinal data using two-stage and joint models increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Single stage models are still heavily utilized by many CVD risk prediction studies for modelling longitudinal data. Future studies should fully utilize available longitudinal data when analyzing CVD risk by employing two-stage and joint approaches which can often better utilize the available data.

The Roles of Carotenoid Consumption and Bioavailability in Cardiovascular Health

Carotenoids are natural pigments generally with a polyene chain consisting of 9-11 double bonds. In recent years, there has been increasing research interest in carotenoids because of their protective roles in cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). While the consumption of carotenoids may have a beneficial effect on CVDs, the literature shows inconsistencies between carotenoid consumption and reductions in the risk of CVDs. Therefore, this review aims to provide a summary of the association between dietary carotenoid intake and the risk of CVDs from published epidemiological studies. Meanwhile, to further elucidate the roles of carotenoid intake in CVD protection, this review outlines the evidence reporting the effects of carotenoids on cardiovascular health from randomized controlled trials by assessing classical CVD risk factors, oxidative stress, inflammatory markers and vascular health-related parameters, respectively. Given the considerable discrepancies among the published results, this review underlines the importance of bioavailability and summarizes the current dietary strategies for improving the bioavailability of carotenoids. In conclusion, this review supports the protective roles of carotenoids against CVDs, possibly by attenuating oxidative stress and mitigating inflammatory response. In addition, this review suggests that the bioavailability of carotenoids should be considered when evaluating the roles of carotenoids in CVD protection.

Longitudinal trajectories of blood lipid levels in an ageing population sample of Russian Western-Siberian urban population

This study investigated 12-year blood lipid trajectories and whether these trajectories are modified by smoking and lipid lowering treatment in older Russians. To do so, we analysed data on 9,218 Russian West-Siberian Caucasians aged 45-69 years at baseline participating in the international HAPIEE cohort study. Mixed-effect multilevel models were used to estimate individual level lipid trajectories across the baseline and two follow-up examinations (16,445 separate measurements over 12 years). In all age groups, we observed a reduction in serum total cholesterol (TC), LDL-C and non-HDL-C over time even after adjusting for sex, statin treatment, hypertension, diabetes, social factors and mortality (P<0.01). In contrast, serum triglyceride (TG) values increased over time in younger age groups, reached a plateau and decreased in older age groups (> 60 years at baseline). In smokers, TC, LDL-C, non-HDL-C and TG decreased less markedly than in non-smokers, while HDL-C decreased more rapidly while the LDL-C/HDL-C ratio increased. In subjects treated with lipid-lowering drugs, TC, LDL-C and non-HDL-C decreased more markedly and HDL-C less markedly than in untreated subjects while TG and LDL-C/HDL-C remained stable or increased in treatment naïve subjects. We conclude, that in this ageing population we observed marked changes in blood lipids over a 12 year follow up, with decreasing trajectories of TC, LDL-C and non-HDL-C and mixed trajectories of TG. The findings suggest that monitoring of age-related trajectories in blood lipids may improve prediction of CVD risk beyond single measurements.

Maternal Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Health After Placental Abruption: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (CHAP-SR)

Placental abruption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have common etiological underpinnings, and there is accumulating evidence that abruption may be associated with future CVD. We estimated associations between abruption and coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. The meta-analysis was based on the random-effects risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) as the effect measure. We conducted a bias analysis to account for abruption misclassification, selection bias, and unmeasured confounding. We included 11 cohort studies comprising 6,325,152 pregnancies, 69,759 abruptions, and 49,265 CHD and stroke cases (1967-2016). Risks of combined CVD morbidity-mortality among abruption and nonabruption groups were 16.7 and 9.3 per 1,000 births, respectively (RR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.50; I2 = 94%; τ2 = 0.22). Women who suffered abruption were at 2.65-fold (95% CI: 1.55, 4.54; I2 = 85%; τ2 = 0.36) higher risk of death related to CHD/stroke than nonfatal CHD/stroke complications (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.92; I2 = 93%; τ2 = 0.15). Abruption was associated with higher mortality from CHD (RR = 2.64, 95% CI: 1.57, 4.44; I2 = 76%; τ2 = 0.31) than stroke (RR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.19, 2.42; I2 = 40%; τ2 = 0.05). Corrections for the aforementioned biases increased these estimates. Women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption may benefit from postpartum screening or therapeutic interventions to help mitigate CVD risks.

Probiotics act as a potent intervention in improving lipid profile: An umbrella systematic review and meta-analysis

Several meta-analysis studies have revealed improving effects of probiotics on lipid profile, while some studies have reported controversial findings. The purpose of present study was to evaluate the efficacy of probiotics on blood lipids. Relevant studies were searched in the international databases, including PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central Library up to August 2021. The pooled results were calculated with the use of a random-effects model to assess the effects of probiotics on blood lipids. Overall, 38 meta-analyses were inclueded in the study. The results indicated that the probiotics supplementation was effective on reduction of total cholesterol (TC) (ES= -0.46 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.61, -0.30, p < 0.001; I²= 83.8%, p < 0.001), triglycerides (TG) (ES= -0.13 mg/dl; 95% CI: -0.23, -0.04, p = 0.006; I²= 74.7%, p < 0.001), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)levels (ES= -0.29 mg/dL; 95% CI: -0.40, -0.19, p < 0.001; I²= 77.8%, p < 0.001). There was no significant effect of probiotics on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels (ES= 0.02 mg/dl; 95% CI: -0.04, 0.08, p = 0.519; I²= 72.5%, p= <0.001). The results of present umbrella meta-analysis strongly support supplementation with probiotics as an influential intervention for improving lipid profile.

Biofunctionalities of unprocessed and processed flours of Australian lupin cultivars: Antidiabetic and organ protective potential studies

As lupin has emerged popularity as dietary protein and nutritional source, our present research was aimed to demonstrate the antidiabetic and organ-protective activities of nine cultivars of Australian sweet lupin seed flours by means of in vitro and in vivo assays accompanied by identification of their bioactive phytocompounds and exploration of underlying mechanisms of their hypoglycemic activity using in silico approach. In vitro α-amylase and α-glucosidase activities inhibition and glucose uptake assays identified Jenabillup seed flours for exhibiting the most potential antidiabetic activity amongst the nine cultivars. In vivo antidiabetic and major organ-protective activities were investigated on streptozotocin-induced hyperglycemia and organ damages in Wister rat model. Along with attenuating hyperglycemia and retreating major organ damages, the biochemical imbalance in cardiac, hepatic and renal markers were well-balanced by Jenabillup seed flours treatment. These activities of lupin seed flours were insignificantly affected by thermal processing. Moreover, in silico investigation of 106 phytochemicals identified by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS) analysis of the seed flour extracts of nine cultivars revealed that more than 35% of compounds possess moderate to high binding affinity to α-amylase and α-glucosidase enzymes. These bioactive compounds act synergistically to exert potential hypoglycemic activity. Cross-docking and binding energy calculation by molecular mechanics/generalized Born volume integration (MM/GBVI) model suggest actinomycin C2 as a potential inhibitor of both α-amylase and α-glucosidase enzymes. These findings acclaim that Australian sweet lupin seed flours may be considered not only as functional food, but also for further development of effective drugs in pharmaceuticals in the treatment of diabetes mellitus and resultant organ damages.

Multi-trajectories of lipid indices with incident cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality: 23 years follow-up of two US cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Understanding the distinct patterns (trajectories) of variation in blood lipid levels before diagnosing cardiovascular disease (CVD) might carry important implications for improving disease prevention or treatment.

METHODS

We investigated 14,373 participants (45.5% men) aged 45-84 from two large US prospective cohort studies with a median of 23 years follow-up. First, we jointly estimated developmental trajectories of lipid indices, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) concentrations using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. Then, the association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Seven distinct multi-trajectories were identified. The majority of participants (approximately 80%) exhibited decreasing LDL-C but rising TG levels and relatively stable HDL-C levels. Compared to the individuals with healthy and stable LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG levels, those in other groups were at significant risk of incident CVD after adjusting for other conventional risk factors. Individuals with the highest but decreasing LDL-C and borderline high and rising TG levels over time were at the highest risk than those in other groups with a 2.22-fold risk of CVD. Also, those with the highest and increased triglyceride levels over time, over optimal and decreasing LDL-C levels, and the lowest HDL-C profile had a nearly 1.84 times CVD risk. Even individuals in the multi-trajectory group with the highest HDL-C, optimal LDL-C, and optimal TG levels had a significant risk (HR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.02-2.08). Furthermore, only those with the highest HDL-C profile increased the risk of heart failure by 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.07-2.06).

CONCLUSIONS

The trajectories and risk of CVD identified in this study demonstrated that despite a decline in LDL-C over time, a significant amount of residual risk for CVD remains. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of TG on CVD risk and emphasize the importance of assessing the lipid levels at each visit and undertaking potential interventions that lower triglyceride concentrations to reduce the residual risk of CVD, even among those with the optimal LDL-C level.

Patient similarity analytics for explainable clinical risk prediction

BACKGROUND

Clinical risk prediction models (CRPMs) use patient characteristics to estimate the probability of having or developing a particular disease and/or outcome. While CRPMs are gaining in popularity, they have yet to be widely adopted in clinical practice. The lack of explainability and interpretability has limited their utility. Explainability is the extent of which a model's prediction process can be described. Interpretability is the degree to which a user can understand the predictions made by a model.

METHODS

The study aimed to demonstrate utility of patient similarity analytics in developing an explainable and interpretable CRPM. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in a Singapore public primary care clinic. We used modified K-nearest neighbour which incorporated expert input, to develop a patient similarity model on this real-world training dataset (n = 7,041) and validated it on a testing dataset (n = 3,018). The results were compared using logistic regression, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models from the same dataset. The patient similarity model was then implemented in a prototype system to demonstrate the identification, explainability and interpretability of similar patients and the prediction process.

RESULTS

The patient similarity model (AUROC = 0.718) was comparable to the logistic regression (AUROC = 0.695), RF (AUROC = 0.764) and SVM models (AUROC = 0.766). We packaged the patient similarity model in a prototype web application. A proof of concept demonstrated how the application provided both quantitative and qualitative information, in the form of patient narratives. This information was used to better inform and influence clinical decision-making, such as getting a patient to agree to start insulin therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient similarity analytics is a feasible approach to develop an explainable and interpretable CRPM. While the approach is generalizable, it can be used to develop locally relevant information, based on the database it searches. Ultimately, such an approach can generate a more informative CRPMs which can be deployed as part of clinical decision support tools to better facilitate shared decision-making in clinical practice.

Association of baseline as well as change in lipid levels with the risk of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause deaths

High baseline atherogenic lipid level has been an established risk factor for the risk of cardiovascular events. Evidence concerning the role of lipid changes in cardiovascular and death risks are inconclusive. A cohort study was conducted based on the Taiwanese Survey on Hypertension, Hyperglycemia, and Hyperlipidemia (n = 4072, mean 44.8 years, 53.5% women) assessing lipid levels of the participants repeatedly measured in 2002 and 2007. Combined baseline and changes in lipid levels were classified into four groups-stable or decreasing lipid changes and increasing lipid changes with low- and high-risk baseline lipid levels. Developing cardiovascular events (n = 225) and all-cause deaths (n = 345) were ascertained during a median follow-up of 13.3 years. Participants with increasing and higher total cholesterol level were more likely to develop cardiovascular risks. Similar patterns for cardiovascular events were observed across other lipid profile changes. However, participants with increasing total cholesterol, LDL-C, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) levels were more likely to be at a lower risk for all-cause deaths. Baseline and changes in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL-C levels were positively associated with the risk of cardiovascular diseases, whereas baseline and changes in total cholesterol and LDL-C and non-HDL-C levels were inversely associated with all-cause deaths.

Antihypertensive medication adherence and cardiovascular disease risk: A longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Few studies estimated the impact of antihypertensive adherence on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in a longitudinal cohort with presence of time-dependent confounders. This study aims to assess the association between antihypertensive adherence and CVD using marginal structural Cox model (MSM-Cox) and to characterize blood pressure (BP) trajectories of patients with different adherence.

METHODS

This longitudinal study included 16,896 hypertensive patients receiving antihypertensive medication. The median follow-up time was 3.5 years (25th to 75th, 1.75-4.75 years). BP and medication adherence were measured four times every year. We used MSM-Cox and Cox model to assess association between antihypertensive adherence and CVD events. The linear mixed-effects model was used to characterize BP trajectories of patients with different adherence, and the area under curves (AUC) was calculated as BP burden.

RESULTS

We documented 4735 CVD events, crude incidence of CVD was 80.8 (95% CI, 78.1-83.4) and 112.6 (95% CI, 107.2-118.0) per 1000 person-years for baseline high-adherence and low-adherence, respectively. Compared with high adherence, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for association between low adherence with CVD was 1.75 (95%CI, 1.62-1.89) and 1.34 (95%CI, 1.26-1.42) based on the MSM-Cox and the Cox model, respectively. The BP burden and fluctuation range of BP trajectory in low-adherence patients were larger than those of high-adherence patients. Patients with high adherence got 28% greater reduction of BP burden than low-adherence patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Antihypertensive adherence was more strongly associated with the risk of CVD than conventional regression analyses based on a single adherence measurement.

Body surface area, height, and body fat percentage as more sensitive risk factors of cancer and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have compared the association between various physical measurements and the risk of cancer or cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aim to explore the best-individualized indicators of cancer and CVD risk assessment.

METHODS

From May 2004 to December 2017, a community-based cohort in China involving 100 280 participants were enrolled. BMI, height, body surface area (BSA), and body fat percentage (BFP) were compared in parallel about cancer and CVD risk with the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression model.

RESULTS

Within the follow-up period, 3107 (3.10%) were diagnosed with cancer and 3721 (3.71%) had CVD. Per-level increased (in tertile: T1, T2, and T3 level) BSA, height, and BFP was positively associated with the risk of overall cancer [HR (95% CI): 1.10 (1.05-1.15), 1.12 (1.07-1.18), and 1.10 (1.03-1.16), respectively], whereas BMI was insignificant. Compared with the reference group (T2), the highest BSA level (T3) was positively associated with overall cancer incidence for both male [HR (95% CI): 1.28 (1.13-1.45)] and female [HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.00-1.28)]. The BSA, height, and BFP also significantly associated with some site-specific cancers including thyroid, stomach, breast, urinary system, and skin cancer. Meanwhile, BFP presented a strong positive association with overall CVD [HR (95% CI): 1.22 (1.15-1.30) in trend] in both gender and associated with nearly all CVD subtypes especially the myocardial infarction and heart failure.

CONCLUSION

BSA, height, and BFP have more sensitivity in assessing cancer risk and BFP shows the largest hazard ratios for CVD incident. We provided valuable evidence for the application of height, BSA, and BFP in routine healthcare practice. These encouraging findings should be tested in more well-defined studies for risk prediction.

Trajectories of Lipids Profile and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Risk: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background

The association between low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides with cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been well studied. No previous studies considered trajectory of these lipids jointly. This study aims to characterize longitudinal trajectories of lipid profile jointly and examine its impact on incident CVD.

Methods and Results

A total of 9726 participants (6102 men), aged from 20 to 58 years who had lipids repeatedly measured 3 to 9 times, were included in the study. Three distinct trajectories were identified using the multivariate latent class growth mixture model: inverse U‐shape (18.72%; n=1821), progressing (66.03%; n=6422), and U‐shape (15.25%; n=1483). Compared with the U‐shape class, the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% CI were 1.33 (1.05–1.68) and 1.49 (1.14–1.95) for the progressing and inverse U‐shape class, respectively. The area under the curve was calculated using the integral of the model parameters. In the adjusted model, total and incremental area under the curve of lipid profile were significantly associated with CVD risk. Furthermore, the model‐estimated levels and linear slopes of lipids were calculated at each age point according to the latent class growth mixture model model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, standardized odds ratio of slope increases gradually from 1.11 (1.02, 1.21) to 1.21 (1.12, 1.31) at 20 to 40 years and then decreased to 1.02 (0.94, 1.11) until 60 years.

Conclusions

These results indicate that the lipids profile trajectory has a significant impact on CVD risk. Age between 20 and 42 years is a crucial period for incident CVD, which has implications for early lipids intervention.