Timing of Tuberculosis Transmission and the Impact of Household Contact Tracing. An Agent-based Simulation Model

M. tuberculosis Infection Attributable to Exposure in Social Networks of Tuberculosis Cases in an Urban African Community

Background

The persistence of tuberculosis today and its global disparity send a powerful message that effective tuberculosis control must respond to its regional epidemiology. Active case finding through contact investigation is a standard protocol used for tuberculosis control, but its effectiveness has not been established, especially in endemic areas.

Methods

To quantify the potential effectiveness of contact investigation in Kampala, Uganda, we used a cross-sectional design to evaluate the social networks of 123 tuberculosis index cases and 124 controls without tuberculosis.

Results

Tuberculous infection was present in 515 of 989 tuberculosis case contacts (52.1%) and 396 of 1026 control contacts (38.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6). The proportion of infected participants with known exposure within the social network of the tuberculosis case was 35%. The population-attributable fraction was 11.1% for any known exposure, with 7.3% attributable to household exposure and 3.4% attributable to extrahousehold exposure.

Conclusions

This low population-attributable fraction indicates that contact tracing in the social networks of index cases will have only a modest effect in reducing tuberculous infection in a community. New approaches to community-level active case finding are needed.

Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis

Mathematical models have suggested that spatially-targeted screening interventions for tuberculosis may efficiently accelerate disease control, but empirical data supporting these findings are limited. Previous models demonstrating substantial impacts of these interventions have typically simulated large-scale screening efforts and have not attempted to capture the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in households and communities at a high resolution. Here, we calibrate an individual-based model to the locations of case notifications in one district of Lima, Peru. We estimate the incremental efficiency and impact of a spatially-targeted interventions used in combination with household contact tracing (HHCT). Our analysis reveals that HHCT is relatively efficient with a median of 40 (Interquartile Range: 31.7 to 49.9) household contacts required to be screened to detect a single case of active tuberculosis. However, HHCT has limited population impact, producing a median incidence reduction of only 3.7% (Interquartile Range: 5.8% to 1.9%) over 5 years. In comparison, spatially targeted screening (which we modeled as active case finding within high tuberculosis prevalence areas 100 m2 grid cell) is far less efficient, requiring evaluation of ≈12 times the number of individuals as HHCT to find a single individual with active tuberculosis. Furthermore, the addition of the spatially targeted screening effort produced only modest additional reductions in tuberculosis incidence over the 5 year period (≈1.3%) in tuberculosis incidence. In summary, we found that HHCT is an efficient approach for tuberculosis case finding, but has limited population impact. Other screening approaches which target areas of high tuberculosis prevalence are less efficient, and may have limited impact unless very large numbers of individuals can be screened.

A user-centred implementation strategy for tuberculosis contact investigation in Uganda: protocol for a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis(TB) is among the leading causes of infectious death worldwide. Contact investigation is an evidence-based, World Health Organisation-endorsed intervention for timely TB diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but has not been widely and effectively implemented.

METHODS

We are conducting a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised, hybrid Type III implementation-effectiveness trial comparing a user-centred to a standard strategy for implementing TB contact investigation in 12 healthcare facilities in Uganda. The user-centred strategy consists of several client-focused components including (1) a TB-education booklet, (2) a contact-identification algorithm, (3) an instructional sputum-collection video, and (4) a community-health-rider service to transport clients, CHWs, and sputum samples, along with several healthcare-worker-focused components, including (1) collaborative improvement meetings, (2) regular audit-and-feedback reports, and (3) a digital group-chat application designed to develop a community of practice. Sites will cross-over from the standard to the user-centred strategy in six, eight-week transition steps following a randomly determined site-pairing scheme and timeline. The primary implementation outcome is the proportion of symptomatic close contacts completing TB evaluation within 60 days of TB treatment initiation by the index person with TB. The primary clinical effectiveness outcomes are the proportion of contacts diagnosed with and initiating active TB disease treatment and the proportion initiating TB preventative therapy within 60 days. We will assess outcomes from routine source documents using intention-to-treat analyses. We will also conduct nested mixed-methods studies of implementation fidelity and context and perform cost-effectiveness and impact modelling. The Makerere School of Public Health IRB(#554), the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology(#HS1720ES), and the Yale Institutional Review Board(#2000023199) approved the study and waived informed consent for the main trial implementation-effectiveness outcomes. We will submit results for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminate findings to local policymakers and representatives of affected communities.

DISCUSSION

This pragmatic, quasi-experimental implementation trial will inform efforts to find and prevent undiagnosed persons with TB in high-burden settings using contact investigation. It will also help assess the suitability of human-centred design and communities of practice for tailoring implementation strategies and sustaining evidence-based interventions in low-and-middle-income countries.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered(ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT05640648) on 16 November 2022, after the trial launch on 7 March 2022.

A user-centred implementation strategy for tuberculosis contact investigation in Uganda: Protocol for a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised trial

Background Tuberculosis (TB) is among the leading causes of infectious death worldwide. Contact investigation is an evidence-based, World Health Organisation-endorsed intervention for timely TB diagnosis, treatment, and prevention but has not been widely and effectively implemented. Methods We are conducting a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised, hybrid Type III implementation-effectiveness trial comparing a user-centred to a standard strategy for implementing TB contact investigation in 12 healthcare facilities in Uganda. The user-centred strategy consists of several client-focused components including 1) a TB-education booklet, 2) a contact-identification algorithm, 3) an instructional sputum-collection video, and 4) a community-health-rider service to transport clients, CHWs, and sputum samples, along with several healthcare-worker-focused components, including 1) collaborative improvement meetings, 2) regular audit-and-feedback reports, and 3) a digital group-chat application designed to develop a community of practice. Sites will cross from the standard to the user-centred strategy in six, eight-week transition steps following a randomly determined site-pairing scheme and timeline. The primary implementation outcome is the proportion of symptomatic close contacts completing TB evaluation within 60 days of TB treatment initiation by the index person with TB. The primary clinical effectiveness outcomes are the proportion of contacts diagnosed with and initiating active TB disease treatment and the proportion initiating TB preventative therapy within 60 days. We will assess outcomes from routine source documents using intention-to-treat analyses. We will also conduct nested mixed-methods studies of implementation fidelity and context and perform cost-effectiveness and impact modelling. The Makerere School of Public Health IRB (#554), the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (#HS1720ES), and the Yale Institutional Review Board (#2000023199) approved the study with a waiver of informed consent for the main trial implementation-effectiveness outcomes. We will submit trial results for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and disseminate findings to local shareholders, including policymakers and representatives of affected communities. Discussion This pragmatic, quasi-experimental implementation trial will inform efforts to find and prevent undiagnosed persons with TB in high-burden setting using contact investigation. It will help assess the suitability of human-centred design and communities of practice for tailoring implementation strategies and sustain evidence-based interventions in low-and-middle-income countries. Trial registration number ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05640648.

Is neglect of self-clearance biassing TB vaccine impact estimates?

Background

Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, with the majority of existing models assuming that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis disease. Recent research provides evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection may be common, which may affect the potential impact of new vaccines that only take in infected or uninfected individuals. We explored how the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India.

Methods

For both countries, we calibrated a tuberculosis model to a scenario without self-clearance and to various scenarios with self-clearance. To account for the current uncertainty in self-clearance properties, we varied the rate of self-clearance, and the level of protection against reinfection in self-cleared individuals. We introduced potential new vaccines in 2025, exploring vaccines that work in uninfected or infected individuals only, or that are effective regardless of infection status, and modelling scenarios with different levels of vaccine efficacy in self-cleared individuals. We then estimated the relative incidence reduction in 2050 for each vaccine compared to the no vaccination scenario.

Findings

The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated relative reductions in incidence in 2050 for vaccines effective only in uninfected individuals, by a maximum of 12% in China and 8% in India. The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated impact of vaccines only effective in infected individuals in some scenarios and decreased it in others, by a maximum of 14% in China and 15% in India. As would be expected, the inclusion of self-clearance had minimal impact on estimated reductions in incidence for vaccines that work regardless of infection status.

Interpretations

Our work suggests that the neglect of self-clearance in mathematical models of tuberculosis vaccines does not result in substantially biased estimates of tuberculosis vaccine impact. It may, however, mean that we are slightly underestimating the relative advantages of vaccines that work in uninfected individuals only compared to those that work in infected individuals.

Tuberculin test versus interferon gamma release assay in pregnant women with household contacts of tuberculosis patients

Background

Pregnant women who live in tuberculosis (TB)-affected households are more likely to develop latent TB infection (LTBI), which often escapes treatment. This study aims to determine if Interferon-gamma release (IGRA) is reliable in screening for LTBI in pregnant women, compare to the tuberculin skin test (TST).

Methods

It was a cross-sectional study that involved 60 pregnant women with TB contact history as a proxy for LTBI and 30 pregnant women without contact history. Latent TB was detected using the TST 5 tuberculin units and IGRA using the QuantiFERON Gold Plus TB Test kit (QFT-Plus). The sensitivity and specificity of the two diagnostic methods and the agreement between them were estimated using SPSS version 20.0.

Results

The sensitivity 95% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.08%-98.96%) and specificity 26.7% (95% CI: 12.28%-45.89%) of TST were compared to that of the IGRA with 60% (95% CI: 46.54%-72.44%) and 73.3% (95% CI: 54.11%-87.72%) sensitivity and specificity, respectively in detecting LTBI in pregnancy. Although there was a significant difference (P < 0.05) between TST and IGRA, the agreement was fair (kappa 0.39; 95% CI: 0.24-0.45).

Conclusion

TST assay is more sensitive than IGRA; however, the specificity of IGRA was superior to the TST method. In this study, a fair agreement of TST and IGRA was observed for detecting latent TB infection in pregnant women with household contact with TB patients.

Comparative assessment of the cost-effectiveness of Tuberculosis (TB) active case-finding interventions: A systematic analysis of TB REACH wave 5 projects

Purpose

Interventions that can help streamline and reduce gaps in the tuberculosis (TB) care cascade can play crucial roles in TB prevention and care, but are often operationally complex and resource intensive, given the heterogenous settings in which they are implemented. In this study, we present a comparative analysis on cost-effectiveness of TB REACH Wave 5 projects with diverse programmatic objectives to inform future decisions regarding funding, strategic adoption, and scale-up.

Methods

We comprehensively reviewed project reports and financial statements from TB REACH Wave 5, a funding mechanism for interventions that aimed to strengthen the TB care cascade in diverse settings. Two independent reviewers abstracted cost (in 2017 US dollars) and key programmatic data, including project type (case-finding only; case-finding and linkage-to-care; or case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support), operational setting (urban or rural), and project outputs (numbers of people with TB diagnosed, started on treatment, and successfully completing treatment). Cost-effectiveness ratios for each project were calculated as ratios of apportioned programmatic expenditures to corresponding project outputs.

Results

Of 32 case finding and patient support projects funded through TB REACH Wave 5, 29 were included for analysis (11 case-finding only; 9 case-finding and linkage-to-care; and 9 case-finding, linkage-to-care and patient support). 21 projects (72%) were implemented in either Africa or Southeast Asia, and 19 (66%) focused on serving urban areas. Average cost-effectiveness was $184 per case diagnosed (range: $30-$10,497), $332 per diagnosis and treatment initiation ($123-$10,608), and $40 per patient treatment supported ($8-$160). Cost per case diagnosed was lower for case-finding-only projects ($132) than projects including linkage-to-care ($342) or linkage-to-care and patient support ($254), and generally increased with the corresponding country’s per-capita GDP ($543 per $1000 increase, 95% confidence interval: -$53, $1138).

Conclusion

The costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions to strengthen the TB care cascade were heterogenous, reflecting differences in context and programmatic objective. Nevertheless, many such interventions are likely to offer good value for money. Systematic collection and analysis of cost-effectiveness data can help improve comparability, monitoring, and evaluation.

Contributory Factors to Successful Tuberculosis Treatment in Southwest Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Study

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the oldest human diseases, and preventing treatment failure is critical. This is because TB cases pose a risk to the immediate and remote communities due to the potential for spread, particularly for multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains that have been associated with higher morbidity and mortality rates. Hence, this study looked at the factors that influence TB treatment outcomes in Southwest Nigeria. We conducted a cross-sectional study with 712 TB patients from 25 directly observed treatment short course (DOTS) centers, out of which 566 (79.49%) were new treatment cases, and 102 (14.33%) were retreatment cases. The outcome variable was computed into successful treatment where ‘Yes’ was assigned to TB treatment completed and cured, and ‘No’ was assigned to all the remaining outcomes following the standard TB definition. Independent variables included in the analysis were the patient’s socio-demographic characteristics (such as age, sex, distance from the facility, marital status, family type, education, and computed socioeconomic status from modified DHS household assets), clinical and facility parameters (such as the HIV status, facility of access to healthcare, healthcare workers attitudes, services offered at the facility, appearance of the facility, number of people seeking care and waiting time at the facility). Bivariate analysis showed that HIV status (OR: 3.53, 95% CI: 1.83–6.82; p = 0.001), healthcare worker attitude (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.21–3.74; p = 0.01), services offered at the facility (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.49–0.92; p = 0.01), appearance of facility (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46–0.98; p = 0.04), and number of people seeking care (OR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.72–3.55; p = 0.001) were associated with higher odds of successful treatment outcome with statistical significance. After multivariate analysis, reactive HIV status (aOR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.67–6.80; p = 0.001), positive attitude of healthcare workers (aOR: 2.58, 95% CI: 1.36–4.89; p = 0.04), excellent services offered at the healthcare facility (aOR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.36–0.78; p = 0.001) and few people seeking care (aOR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.21–3.84; p = 0.001) became independent significant determinants of successful treatment outcome. The study concluded that reactive HIV status, positive attitude of healthcare workers, few people seeking healthcare, and excellent service provided were all factors that contributed to successful treatment outcomes.

Transmission Dynamics of Tuberculosis with Age-specific Disease Progression

Demographic structure and latent phenomenon are two essential factors determining the rate of tuberculosis transmission. However, only a few mathematical models considered age structure coupling with disease stages of infectious individuals. This paper develops a system of delay partial differential equations to model tuberculosis transmission in a heterogeneous population. The system considers demographic structure coupling with the continuous development of disease stage, which is crucial for studying how aging affects tuberculosis dynamics and disease progression. Here, we determine the basic reproduction number, and several numerical simulations are used to investigate the influence of various progression rates on tuberculosis dynamics. Our results support that the aging effect on the disease progression rate contributes to tuberculosis permanence.

Contact Tracing: Barriers and Facilitators

Contact tracing-the process of identifying, isolating, and managing infected persons and their contacts-is a recognized public health measure for controlling the transmission of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, contact tracing has received intense attention. We provide a brief overview of the history of contact tracing during several major disease outbreaks in the past century: syphilis and other sexually transmitted infections, HIV infection, tuberculosis, Ebola virus disease, and COVID-19. Our discussion on the barriers to and facilitators of contact tracing offers a perspective on societal and institutional roles and dynamics, stigma as a major barrier to effective tracing efforts, and how the nature and epidemiology of the infection itself can affect its success. We explore the evolution and adaptation of contact tracing and provide insights for future programming and research. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 2, 2022: e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306842).

Prioritising attributes for tuberculosis preventive treatment regimens: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent years have seen important improvements in available preventive treatment regimens for tuberculosis (TB), and research is ongoing to develop these further. To assist with the formulation of target product profiles for future regimens, we examined which regimen properties would be most influential in the epidemiological impact of preventive treatment.

METHODS

Following expert consultation, we identified 5 regimen properties relevant to the incidence-reducing impact of a future preventive treatment regimen: regimen duration, efficacy, ease-of-adherence (treatment completion rates in programmatic conditions), forgiveness to non-completion and the barrier to developing rifampicin resistance during treatment. For each regimen property, we elicited expert input for minimally acceptable and optimal (ideal-but-feasible) performance scenarios for future regimens. Using mathematical modelling, we then examined how each regimen property would influence the TB incidence reduction arising from full uptake of future regimens according to current WHO guidelines, in four countries: South Africa, Kenya, India and Brazil.

RESULTS

Of all regimen properties, efficacy is the single most important predictor of epidemiological impact, while ease-of-adherence plays an important secondary role. These results are qualitatively consistent across country settings; sensitivity analyses show that these results are also qualitatively robust to a range of model assumptions, including the mechanism of action of future preventive regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

As preventive treatment regimens against TB continue to improve, understanding the key drivers of epidemiological impact can assist in guiding further development. By meeting these key targets, future preventive treatment regimens could play a critical role in global efforts to end TB.

Achieving a "step change" in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a "step change" in the TB burden.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention.

RESULTS

A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450-10,200) cases and 1710 (1290-2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2-38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4-56.9) to health system strengthening.

CONCLUSIONS

A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.

The yield of tuberculosis contact investigation in low- and middle-income settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Contact investigation, the systematic evaluation of individuals in close contact with an infectious tuberculosis (TB) patient, is a key active case-finding strategy for global TB control. Better estimates of the yield of contact investigation can guide strategies to reduce the number of underreported and underdiagnosed TB cases, approximately three million cases per year globally. A systematic review (Prospero ID # CRD42019133380) and meta-analysis was conducted to update and enhance the estimates of the yield of TB contact investigation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Pubmed, Web of Science, Embase and the WHO Global Index Medicus were searched for peer-reviewed studies (published between January 2006–April 2019); studies reporting the number of active TB or latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) found through contact investigation were included. Pooled data were meta-analyzed using a random effects model and risk of bias was assessed.

Results

Of 1,644 unique citations obtained from database searches, 110 studies met eligibility criteria for descriptive data synthesis and 95 for meta-analysis. The pooled yields of contact investigation activities for different outcomes were: secondary cases of all active TB (defined as those bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed) 2.87% (2.61–3.14, I² 97.79%), bacteriologically confirmed active TB 2.04% (1.77–2.31, I² 98.06%), and LTBI 43.83% (38.11–49.55, I² 99.36%). Yields are interpreted as the percent of contacts screened who are diagnosed with active TB as a result of TB contact investigation activities. Pooled estimates were substantially heterogenous (I² ≥ 75%).

Conclusions

This study provides methodologically rigorous and up-to-date estimates for the yield of TB contact investigation activities in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). While the data are heterogenous, these findings can inform strategic and programmatic planning for scale up of TB contact investigation activities.

Representing Tuberculosis Transmission with Complex Contagion: An Agent-Based Simulation Modeling Approach

OBJECTIVE

A recent study reported a tuberculosis (TB) outbreak in which, among newly infected individuals, exposure to additional active infections was associated with a higher probability of developing active disease. Referred to as complex contagion, multiple reexposures to TB within a short period after initial infection is hypothesized to confer a greater likelihood of developing active infection in 1 y. The purpose of this article is to develop and validate an agent-based simulation model (ABM) to study the effect of complex contagion on population-level TB transmission dynamics.

METHODS

We built an ABM of a TB epidemic using data from a series of outbreaks recorded in the 20th century in Saskatchewan, Canada. We fit 3 dynamical schemes: base, with no complex contagion; additive, in which each reexposure confers an independent risk of activated infection; and threshold, in which a small number of reexposures confers a low risk and a high number of reexposures confers a high risk of activation.

RESULTS

We find that the base model fits the mortality and incidence output targets best, followed by the threshold and then the additive models. The threshold model fits the incidence better than the base model does but overestimates mortality. All 3 models produce qualitatively realistic epidemic curves.

CONCLUSION

We find that complex contagion qualitatively changes the trajectory of a TB epidemic, although data from a high-incidence setting are reproduced better with the base model. Results from this model demonstrate the feasibility of using ABM to capture nuances in TB transmission.

Transmission Modeling with Regression Adjustment for Analyzing Household-based Studies of Infectious Disease: Application to Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Household contacts of people infected with a transmissible disease may be at risk due to this proximate exposure, or from other unobserved sources. Understanding variation in infection risk is essential for targeting interventions.

METHODS

We develop an analytical approach to estimate household and exogenous forces of infection, while accounting for individual-level characteristics that affect susceptibility to disease and transmissibility. We apply this approach to a cohort study conducted in Lima, Peru, of 18,544 subjects in 4,500 households with at least one active tuberculosis (TB) case and compare the results to those obtained by Poisson and logistic regression.

RESULTS

HIV-coinfected (susceptibility hazard ratio [SHR] = 3.80, 1.56-9.29), child (SHR = 1.72, 1.32-2.23), and teenage (SHR = 2.00, 1.49-2.68) household contacts of TB cases experience a higher hazard of TB than do adult contacts. Isoniazid preventive therapy (SHR = 0.30, 0.21-0.42) and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination (SHR = 0.66, 0.51-0.86) reduce the risk of disease among household contacts. TB cases without microbiological confirmation exert a smaller hazard of TB among their close contacts compared with smear- or culture-positive cases (excess hazard ratio = 0.88, 0.82-0.93 for HIV- cases and 0.82, 0.57-0.94 for HIV+ cases). The extra household force of infection results in 0.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.004, 0.028) TB cases per susceptible household contact per year and the rate of transmission between a microbiologically confirmed TB case and susceptible household contact at 0.08 (95% CI = 0.045, 0.129) TB cases per pair per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Accounting for exposure to infected household contacts permits estimation of risk factors for disease susceptibility and transmissibility and comparison of within-household and exogenous forces of infection.

Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns

There is an emerging consensus that achieving global tuberculosis control targets will require more proactive case finding approaches than are currently used in high-incidence settings. Household contact tracing (HHCT), for which households of newly diagnosed cases are actively screened for additional infected individuals is a potentially efficient approach to finding new cases of tuberculosis, however randomized trials assessing the population-level effects of such interventions in settings with sustained community transmission have shown mixed results. One potential explanation for this is that household transmission is responsible for a variable proportion of population-level tuberculosis burden between settings. For example, transmission is more likely to occur in households in settings with a lower tuberculosis burden and where individuals mix preferentially in local areas, compared with settings with higher disease burden and more dispersed mixing. To better understand the relationship between endemic incidence levels, social mixing, and the impact of HHCT, we developed a spatially explicit model of coupled household and community transmission. We found that the impact of HHCT was robust across settings of varied incidence and community contact patterns. In contrast, we found that the effects of community contact tracing interventions were sensitive to community contact patterns. Our results suggest that the protective benefits of HHCT are robust and the benefits of this intervention are likely to be maintained across epidemiological settings.

Contact tracing - Old models and new challenges

Contact tracing is an effective method to control emerging infectious diseases. Since the 1980's, modellers are developing a consistent theory for contact tracing, with the aim to find effective and efficient implementations, and to assess the effects of contact tracing on the spread of an infectious disease. Despite the progress made in the area, there remain important open questions. In addition, technological developments, especially in the field of molecular biology (genetic sequencing of pathogens) and modern communication (digital contact tracing), have posed new challenges for the modelling community. In the present paper, we discuss modelling approaches for contact tracing and identify some of the current challenges for the field.

Blood RNA signatures predict recent tuberculosis exposure in mice, macaques and humans

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death due to a single infectious disease. Knowing when a person was infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) is critical as recent infection is the strongest clinical risk factor for progression to TB disease in immunocompetent individuals. However, time since M.tb infection is challenging to determine in routine clinical practice. To define a biomarker for recent TB exposure, we determined whether gene expression patterns in blood RNA correlated with time since M.tb infection or exposure. First, we found RNA signatures that accurately discriminated early and late time periods after experimental infection in mice and cynomolgus macaques. Next, we found a 6-gene blood RNA signature that identified recently exposed individuals in two independent human cohorts, including adult household contacts of TB cases and adolescents who recently acquired M.tb infection. Our work supports the need for future longitudinal studies of recent TB contacts to determine whether biomarkers of recent infection can provide prognostic information of TB disease risk in individuals and help map recent transmission in communities.

Coverage of tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus screening among household contacts of tuberculosis patients: a household-based cross-sectional survey from Southern Thailand

Background

The comorbid presence of tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus has become an increasingly important public health threat to the prevention and control of both diseases. Thus, household contact investigation may serve a dual purpose of screening for both tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus among household contacts. We therefore aimed to evaluate the coverage of screening for tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus among household contacts of tuberculosis index cases and to determine predictors of tuberculosis screening.

Methods

A household-based survey was conducted in February 2019 in Muang district of Phatthalung Province, Thailand where 95 index tuberculosis patients were newly diagnosed with pulmonary or pleural tuberculosis between October 2017 and September 2018. Household contacts of the index patients were interviewed using a structured questionnaire to ascertain their past-year history of tuberculosis screening and, if appropriate, diabetes mellitus screening. For children, the household head or an adult household member was interviewed as a proxy. Coverage of tuberculosis screening at the household level was regarded as households having all contacts screened for tuberculosis. Logistic regression and mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of tuberculosis screening at the household and individual levels, respectively, with the strengths of association presented as adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Of 61 responding households (64%), complete coverage of tuberculosis screening at the household level was 34.4% and among the 174 household contacts was 46.6%. About 20% of contacts did not receive any recommendation for tuberculosis screening. Households were more likely to have all members screened for tuberculosis if they were advised to be screened by a healthcare professional rather than someone else. At the individual level, contacts aged ≥35 years (AOR: 30.6, 95% CI: 2.0–466.0), being an employee (AOR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0–0.8) and those who had lived more than 5 years in the same household (AOR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0–0.8) were independent predictors for tuberculosis screening. Coverage of diabetes mellitus screening was 80.6% with lack of awareness being the main reason for not being screened.

Conclusions

Compared to diabetes screening, the coverage of tuberculosis screening was low. A better strategy to improve coverage of tuberculosis contact screening is needed.

A Framework for Network-Based Epidemiological Modeling of Tuberculosis Dynamics Using Synthetic Datasets

We present a framework for discrete network-based modeling of TB epidemiology in US counties using publicly available synthetic datasets. We explore the dynamics of this modeling framework by simulating the hypothetical spread of disease over 2 years resulting from a single active infection in Washtenaw County, MI. We find that for sufficiently large transmission rates that active transmission outweighs reactivation, disease prevalence is sensitive to the contact weight assigned to transmissions between casual contacts (that is, contacts that do not share a household, workplace, school, or group quarter). Workplace and casual contacts contribute most to active disease transmission, while household, school, and group quarter contacts contribute relatively little. Stochastic features of the model result in significant uncertainty in the predicted number of infections over time, leading to challenges in model calibration and interpretation of model-based predictions. Finally, predicted infections were more localized by household location than would be expected if they were randomly distributed. This modeling framework can be refined in later work to study specific county and multi-county TB epidemics in the USA.

A household-level score to predict the risk of tuberculosis among contacts of patients with tuberculosis: a derivation and external validation prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of social protection and biomedical interventions for tuberculosis-affected households might be improved by risk stratification. We therefore derived and externally validated a household-level risk score to predict tuberculosis among contacts of patients with tuberculosis.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we recruited tuberculosis-affected households from 15 desert shanty towns in Ventanilla and 17 urban communities in Callao, Lima, Peru. Tuberculosis-affected households included index patients with a new diagnosis of tuberculosis and their contacts who reported being in the same house as the index patient for more than 6 h per week in the 2 weeks preceding index patient diagnosis. Tuberculosis-affected households were not included if the index patient had no eligible contacts or lived alone. We followed contacts until 2018 and defined household tuberculosis, the primary outcome, as any contact having any form of tuberculosis within 3 years. We used logistic regression to identify characteristics of index patients, contacts, and households that were predictive of household tuberculosis, and used these to derive and externally validate a household-level score.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 12, 2007, and Dec 31, 2015, 16 505 contacts from 3 301 households in Ventanilla were included in a derivation cohort. During the 3-year follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 430 (13%, 95% CI 12-14) households. Index patient predictors were pulmonary tuberculosis and sputum smear grade, age, and the maximum number of hours any contact had spent with the index patient while they had any cough. Household predictors were drug use, schooling of the female head of a household, and lower food spending. Contact predictors were if any of the contacts were children, number of lower-weight (body-mass index [BMI] <20·0 kg/m2) adult contacts, number of normal-weight (BMI 20·0-24·9 kg/m2) adult contacts, and number of past or present household members who previously had tuberculosis. In this derivation cohort, the score c statistic was 0·77 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 31% (95% CI 25-38; 65 of 211) versus 2% (95% CI 0-4; four of 231) in the lowest scoring quintile. We externally validated the risk score in a cohort of 4248 contacts from 924 households in Callao recruited between April 23, 2014, and Dec 31, 2015. During follow-up, tuberculosis occurred in contacts of index patients in 120 (13%, 95% CI 11-15) households. The score c statistic in this cohort was 0·75 and the risk of household tuberculosis in the highest scoring quintile was 28% (95% CI 21-36; 43 of 154) versus 1% (95% CI 0-5; two of 148) in the lowest scoring quintile. The highest-scoring third of households captured around 70% of all tuberculosis among contacts. A simplified risk score including only five variables performed similarly, with only a small reduction in performance.

INTERPRETATION

This externally validated score will enable comprehensive biosocial, household-level interventions to be targeted to tuberculosis-affected households that are most likely to benefit.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care, Department for International Development, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Innovation for Health and Development.

Community-wide Screening for Tuberculosis in a High-Prevalence Setting

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has set ambitious targets for the global elimination of tuberculosis. However, these targets will not be achieved at the current rate of progress.

METHODS

We performed a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in Ca Mau Province, Vietnam, to evaluate the effectiveness of active community-wide screening, as compared with standard passive case detection alone, for reducing the prevalence of tuberculosis. Persons 15 years of age or older who resided in 60 intervention clusters (subcommunes) were screened for pulmonary tuberculosis, regardless of symptoms, annually for 3 years, beginning in 2014, by means of rapid nucleic acid amplification testing of spontaneously expectorated sputum samples. Active screening was not performed in the 60 control clusters in the first 3 years. The primary outcome, measured in the fourth year, was the prevalence of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis among persons 15 years of age or older. The secondary outcome was the prevalence of tuberculosis infection, as assessed by an interferon gamma release assay in the fourth year, among children born in 2012.

RESULTS

In the fourth-year prevalence survey, we tested 42,150 participants in the intervention group and 41,680 participants in the control group. A total of 53 participants in the intervention group (126 per 100,000 population) and 94 participants in the control group (226 per 100,000) had pulmonary tuberculosis, as confirmed by a positive nucleic acid amplification test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (prevalence ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40 to 0.78; P<0.001). The prevalence of tuberculosis infection in children born in 2012 was 3.3% in the intervention group and 2.6% in the control group (prevalence ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.70 to 2.36; P = 0.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Three years of community-wide screening in persons 15 years of age or older who resided in Ca Mau Province, Vietnam, resulted in a lower prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the fourth year than standard passive case detection alone. (Funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; ACT3 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12614000372684.).

Contact tracing for hepatitis C: The case for novel screening strategies as we strive for viral elimination

Contact tracing has been a key element of the public health response to infectious diseases for decades. These practices have been powerful in slowing the spread of tuberculosis, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections. Despite success in other contexts, contact tracing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) has historically been considered infeasible because of a long asymptomatic period, which often makes it difficult to pinpoint the time of acquisition. Additionally, individuals may be reluctant to identify injecting partners because of stigma or fear of criminal repercussions. However, multiple factors - including the improved curability of HCV with advances in direct acting antiviral agents (DAAs), the implementation of age-based screening, and the current opioid epidemic -- have led to rapid changes in the landscape of HCV. HCV is increasingly concentrated among young people who inject drugs (PWID), many of whom are inadequately being reached by current screening practices. With the shift in the population most at risk for HCV and the fundamental changes in how we manage this disease, it's time to also rethink the public health response in identifying and informing those who may have been exposed. Contact tracing programs for HCV can augment existing screening strategies to provide curative treatment for patients and their partners, prevent reciprocal transmission of HCV between risk partners and within networks, and ultimately reach individuals who aren't yet engaged in healthcare and harm reduction. While there remain limitations to contact tracing for HCV, it has the potential to be a powerful tool in slowing the spread of the virus as we attempt to achieve viral elimination.

The relative fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a modelling study of household transmission in Peru

The relative fitness of drug-resistant versus susceptible bacteria in an environment dictates resistance prevalence. Estimates for the relative fitness of resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains are highly heterogeneous and mostly derived from in vitro experiments. Measuring fitness in the field allows us to determine how the environment influences the spread of resistance. We designed a household structured, stochastic mathematical model to estimate the fitness costs associated with multidrug resistance (MDR) carriage in Mtb in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013. By fitting the model to data from a large prospective cohort study of TB disease in household contacts, we estimated the fitness, relative to susceptible strains with a fitness of 1, of MDR-Mtb to be 0.32 (95% credible interval: 0.15–0.62) or 0.38 (0.24–0.61), if only transmission or progression to disease, respectively, was affected. The relative fitness of MDR-Mtb increased to 0.56 (0.42–0.72) when the fitness cost influenced both transmission and progression to disease equally. We found the average relative fitness of MDR-Mtb circulating within households in Lima, Peru during 2010–2013 to be significantly lower than concurrent susceptible Mtb. If these fitness levels do not change, then existing TB control programmes are likely to keep MDR-TB prevalence at current levels in Lima, Peru.

Prevalence and Determinants of QuantiFERON-Diagnosed Tuberculosis Infection in 9810 Mongolian Schoolchildren

BACKGROUND

There is controversy regarding the potential influence of vitamin D deficiency, exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, BCG vaccination, season, and body habitus on susceptibility to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to identify determinants of a positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) assay result in children aged 6-13 years attending 18 schools in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Data relating to potential risk factors for MTB infection were collected by questionnaire, physical examination, and determination of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated with adjustment for potential confounders, and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for modifiable risk factors identified.

RESULTS

Nine hundred forty-six of 9810 (9.6%) participants had a positive QFT result. QFT positivity was independently associated with household exposure to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted RR [aRR], 4.75 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 4.13-5.46, P < .001]; PAF, 13.1% [95% CI, 11.1%-15.0%]), vitamin D deficiency (aRR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.40], P = .002; PAF, 5.7% [95% CI, 1.9%-9.3%]), exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (1 indoor smoker, aRR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.04-1.35]; ≥2 indoor smokers, aRR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.02-1.64]; P for trend = .006; PAF, 7.2% [95% CI, 2.2%-12.0%]), and increasing age (aRR per additional year, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.10-1.19], P < .001). No statistically significant independent association was seen for presence of a BCG scar, season of sampling, or body mass index.

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke are potentially modifiable risk factors for MTB infection.

Active and passive case-finding in tuberculosis-affected households in Peru: a 10-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Active case-finding among contacts of patients with tuberculosis is a global health priority, but the effects of active versus passive case-finding are poorly characterised. We assessed the contribution of active versus passive case-finding to tuberculosis detection among contacts and compared sex and disease characteristics between contacts diagnosed through these strategies.

METHODS

In shanty towns in Callao, Peru, we identified index patients with tuberculosis and followed up contacts aged 15 years or older for tuberculosis. All patients and contacts were offered free programmatic active case-finding entailing sputum smear microscopy and clinical assessment. Additionally, all contacts were offered intensified active case-finding with sputum smear and culture testing monthly for 6 months and then once every 4 years. Passive case-finding at local health facilities was ongoing throughout follow-up.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 23, 2002, and May 26, 2006, we identified 2666 contacts, who were followed up until March 1, 2016. Median follow-up was 10·0 years (IQR 7·5-11·0). 232 (9%) of 2666 contacts were diagnosed with tuberculosis. The 2-year cumulative risk of tuberculosis was 4·6% (95% CI 3·5-5·5), and overall incidence was 0·98 cases (95% CI 0·86-1·10) per 100 person-years. 53 (23%) of 232 contacts with tuberculosis were diagnosed through active case-finding and 179 (77%) were identified through passive case-finding. During the first 6 months of the study, 23 (45%) of 51 contacts were diagnosed through active case-finding and 28 (55%) were identified through passive case-finding. Contacts diagnosed through active versus passive case-finding were more frequently female (36 [68%] of 53 vs 85 [47%] of 179; p=0·009), had a symptom duration of less than 15 days (nine [25%] of 36 vs ten [8%] of 127; p=0·03), and were more likely to be sputum smear-negative (33 [62%] of 53 vs 62 [35%] of 179; p=0·0003).

INTERPRETATION

Although active case-finding made an important contribution to tuberculosis detection among contacts, passive case-finding detected most of the tuberculosis burden. Compared with passive case-finding, active case-finding was equitable, helped to diagnose tuberculosis earlier and usually before a positive result on sputum smear microscopy, and showed a high burden of undetected tuberculosis among women.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development Civil Society Challenge Fund, Joint Global Health Trials consortium, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College National Institutes of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, Sir Halley Stewart Trust, WHO, TB REACH, and IFHAD: Innovation for Health and Development.

Immunometabolic Signatures Predict Risk of Progression to Active Tuberculosis and Disease Outcome

There remains a pressing need for biomarkers that can predict who will progress to active tuberculosis (TB) after exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) bacterium. By analyzing cohorts of household contacts of TB index cases (HHCs) and a stringent non-human primate (NHP) challenge model, we evaluated whether integration of blood transcriptional profiling with serum metabolomic profiling can provide new understanding of disease processes and enable improved prediction of TB progression. Compared to either alone, the combined application of pre-existing transcriptome- and metabolome-based signatures more accurately predicted TB progression in the HHC cohorts and more accurately predicted disease severity in the NHPs. Pathway and data-driven correlation analyses of the integrated transcriptional and metabolomic datasets further identified novel immunometabolomic signatures significantly associated with TB progression in HHCs and NHPs, implicating cortisol, tryptophan, glutathione, and tRNA acylation networks. These results demonstrate the power of multi-omics analysis to provide new insights into complex disease processes.

Protective effects of household-based TB interventions are robust to neighbourhood-level variation in exposure risk in Lima, Peru: a model-based analysis

Background

Untargeted active screening and treatment programmes for tuberculosis (TB) have not been shown to be more effective than passive screening and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for reducing TB incidence. In this manuscript, we compare the efficacy of targeting screening and IPT on high-risk household contacts of diagnosed TB cases, with less-targeted active screening approaches in Lima, Peru.

Methods

We conducted a population-based prospective cohort study within households of TB cases in Lima. We identified all adults diagnosed with incident pulmonary TB from 2009 through 2012 at 106 participating public health centres (HC) within our catchment area of ∼3.3 million inhabitants. We estimated combined effects of community and household exposure on the risk of latent TB infection (LTBI) and incident TB disease. We used simulation modelling to assess the efficacy of TB screening programmes for reducing the risk of incident TB in these contacts.

Results

Individuals with household exposure to TB are more likely to present with LTBI and TB disease than those without this exposure, despite wide variation in community exposure. Simulations suggest that more cases are prevented by 1000 administrations of IPT to tuberculin skin test (TST)-positive household contacts of identified TB cases (30, 95% CI = 16,47) than from blanket screening and treatment in the community (7, 95% CI = 2,17).

Conclusions

Household exposure remains a major driver of incident TB risk among household contacts of identified TB cases. Targeting interventions on these individuals is likely to prevent more cases of TB than blanket screening of individuals in the community.

Paradigm changing evidence that alter tuberculosis perception and detection: Focus on latency

Tuberculosis remains a devastating disease to Mankind, ranking as the ninth cause of death worldwide. Eliminating tuberculosis as proven much more difficult than once anticipated. In addition to the delay in diagnosis and drug resistance problems that compromise the efficacy of treatment, the enormous reservoir of latently infected individuals continuously feeds the epidemics. However, targeting latency with prophylactic antibiotic administration is not possible at the populational level. Together, these issues call for a better understanding of latency, as well as for a more precise identification of individuals at high risk of reactivation. For this, recent paradigm changing evidence need to be taken into account, most notably, the existence of a tuberculosis spectrum; the genetic diversity of both humans and tuberculosis-causing bacteria; and the changes in the human population that interfere with tuberculosis. Here we discuss latency in the light of these variables and how that understanding can move forward tuberculosis research and elimination.

Four-Gene Pan-African Blood Signature Predicts Progression to Tuberculosis

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated.Measurements and Main Results: A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-α variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

Household-Contact Investigation for Detection of Tuberculosis in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Active case finding is a top priority for the global control of tuberculosis, but robust evidence for its effectiveness in high-prevalence settings is lacking. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of household-contact investigation, as compared with standard, passive measures alone, in Vietnam.

METHODS

We performed a cluster-randomized, controlled trial at clinics in 70 districts (local government areas with an average population of approximately 500,000 in urban areas and 100,000 in rural areas) in eight provinces of Vietnam. Health workers at each district clinic or hospital were assigned to perform either household-contact intervention plus standard passive case finding (intervention group) or passive case finding alone (control group). In the intervention districts, household contacts of patients with positive results for tuberculosis on sputum smear microscopy (smear-positive tuberculosis) were invited for clinical assessment and chest radiography at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months. The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of registered cases of tuberculosis among household contacts of patients with tuberculosis during a 2-year period.

RESULTS

In 70 selected districts, we enrolled 25,707 household contacts of 10,964 patients who had smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. In the 36 districts that were included in the intervention group, 180 of 10,069 contacts were registered as having tuberculosis (1788 cases per 100,000 population), as compared with 110 of 15,638 contacts (703 per 100,000) in the control group (relative risk of the primary outcome in the intervention group, 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 3.2; P<0.001); the relative risk of smear-positive disease among household contacts in the intervention group was 6.4 (95% CI, 4.5 to 9.0; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Household-contact investigation plus standard passive case finding was more effective than standard passive case finding alone for the detection of tuberculosis in a high-prevalence setting at 2 years. (Funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; ACT2 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12610000600044 .).

Drivers of Tuberculosis Transmission

Measuring tuberculosis transmission is exceedingly difficult, given the remarkable variability in the timing of clinical disease after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection; incident disease can result from either a recent (ie, weeks to months) or a remote (ie, several years to decades) infection event. Although we cannot identify with certainty the timing and location of tuberculosis transmission for individuals, approaches for estimating the individual probability of recent transmission and for estimating the fraction of tuberculosis cases due to recent transmission in populations have been developed. Data used to estimate the probable burden of recent transmission include tuberculosis case notifications in young children and trends in tuberculin skin test and interferon γ-release assays. More recently, M. tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing has been used to estimate population levels of recent transmission, identify the distribution of specific strains within communities, and decipher chains of transmission among culture-positive tuberculosis cases. The factors that drive the transmission of tuberculosis in communities depend on the burden of prevalent tuberculosis; the ways in which individuals live, work, and interact (eg, congregate settings); and the capacity of healthcare and public health systems to identify and effectively treat individuals with infectious forms of tuberculosis. Here we provide an overview of these factors, describe tools for measurement of ongoing transmission, and highlight knowledge gaps that must be addressed.

The epidemiology, pathogenesis, transmission, diagnosis, and management of multidrug-resistant, extensively drug-resistant, and incurable tuberculosis

Global tuberculosis incidence has declined marginally over the past decade, and tuberculosis remains out of control in several parts of the world including Africa and Asia. Although tuberculosis control has been effective in some regions of the world, these gains are threatened by the increasing burden of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis. XDR tuberculosis has evolved in several tuberculosis-endemic countries to drug-incurable or programmatically incurable tuberculosis (totally drug-resistant tuberculosis). This poses several challenges similar to those encountered in the pre-chemotherapy era, including the inability to cure tuberculosis, high mortality, and the need for alternative methods to prevent disease transmission. This phenomenon mirrors the worldwide increase in antimicrobial resistance and the emergence of other MDR pathogens, such as malaria, HIV, and Gram-negative bacteria. MDR and XDR tuberculosis are associated with high morbidity and substantial mortality, are a threat to health-care workers, prohibitively expensive to treat, and are therefore a serious public health problem. In this Commission, we examine several aspects of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The traditional view that acquired resistance to antituberculous drugs is driven by poor compliance and programmatic failure is now being questioned, and several lines of evidence suggest that alternative mechanisms-including pharmacokinetic variability, induction of efflux pumps that transport the drug out of cells, and suboptimal drug penetration into tuberculosis lesions-are likely crucial to the pathogenesis of drug-resistant tuberculosis. These factors have implications for the design of new interventions, drug delivery and dosing mechanisms, and public health policy. We discuss epidemiology and transmission dynamics, including new insights into the fundamental biology of transmission, and we review the utility of newer diagnostic tools, including molecular tests and next-generation whole-genome sequencing, and their potential for clinical effectiveness. Relevant research priorities are highlighted, including optimal medical and surgical management, the role of newer and repurposed drugs (including bedaquiline, delamanid, and linezolid), pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic considerations, preventive strategies (such as prophylaxis in MDR and XDR contacts), palliative and patient-orientated care aspects, and medicolegal and ethical issues.

Stochastic agent-based modeling of tuberculosis in Canadian Indigenous communities

Background

In Canada, active tuberculosis (TB) disease rates remain disproportionately higher among the Indigenous population, especially among the Inuit in the north. We used mathematical modeling to evaluate how interventions might enhance existing TB control efforts in a region of Nunavut.

Methods

We developed a stochastic, agent-based model of TB transmission that captured the unique household and community structure. Evaluated interventions included: (i) rapid treatment of active cases; (ii) rapid contact tracing; (iii) expanded screening programs for latent TB infection (LTBI); and (iv) reduced household density. The outcomes of interest were incident TB infections and total diagnosed active TB disease over a 10- year time period.

Results

Model-projected incidence in the absence of additional interventions was highly variable (range: 33–369 cases) over 10 years. Compared to the ‘no additional intervention’ scenario, reducing the time between onset of active TB disease and initiation of treatment reduced both the number of new TB infections (47% reduction, relative risk of TB = 0.53) and diagnoses of active TB disease (19% reduction, relative risk of TB = 0.81). Expanding general population screening was also projected to reduce the burden of TB, although these findings were sensitive to assumptions around the relative amount of transmission occurring outside of households. Other potential interventions examined in the model (school-based screening, rapid contact tracing, and reduced household density) were found to have limited effectiveness.

Conclusions

In a region of northern Canada experiencing a significant TB burden, more rapid treatment initiation in active TB cases was the most impactful intervention evaluated. Mathematical modeling can provide guidance for allocation of limited resources in a way that minimizes disease transmission and protects population health.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3996-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Interventions to improve contact tracing for tuberculosis in specific groups and in wider populations: an evidence synthesis

Background

The tracing and screening of people who have had contact with an active case of tuberculosis (TB) is an important element of TB control strategies.

Objectives

This study aimed to carry out a review of evidence regarding TB contact tracing, with a particular emphasis on research that was applicable to TB contact tracing in specific population groups in the UK.

Design

An evidence synthesis of literature of any study design on TB contact tracing in developed countries was carried out.

Setting

Any setting.

Population

Individuals found to have active TB disease, and people who have come into contact with them.

Interventions

Contact-tracing investigations.

Main outcome measures

Any outcome related to TB infection, contact investigations and/or the views of staff, people with TB disease, or their contacts.

Data sources

Searches for research published 1995 onwards were undertaken in the following databases: MEDLINE via Ovid SP, EMBASE via Ovid SP, EconLit via Ovid SP, PsycINFO via Ovid SP, Social Policy and Practice via Ovid SP, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature via EBSCOhost, Science and Social Science Citation Indices via Web of Science and The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library.

Review methods

The study comprised a review of TB contact tracing in specific population groups and a review in wider populations. A narrative synthesis was completed and a logic model was developed from the literature.

Results

There were 112 articles in the review: 23 related to specific populations and 89 related to wider populations. The literature was of limited quality, with much general description of investigations. We identified only two (uncontrolled) studies that could be considered evaluative. Although the limitations of the evidence should be recognised, the review suggested the following: the value of a location-based approach, working with local communities and the media, partnership working, using molecular epidemiological testing, ensuring adequate systems and addressing fear of stigma. The literature on investigations for specific populations has much concordance with that reporting findings from wider population groups. The recognised limitations of conventional investigation methods may, however, be exacerbated in specific populations.

Limitations

The English-language inclusion criterion may have limited the breadth of countries represented. A meta-analysis was not possible owing to the nature of the literature. Relevant studies may have been missed by our searches, which used terminology relating to contact tracing rather than to active case finding or screening.

Conclusions

The review identified a sizeable volume of literature relating to contact investigations. However, it is currently predominantly descriptive, with little evaluative work underpinning investigations in either specific or wider populations. Our findings are, therefore, based on limited evidence. Further research is required if robust conclusions are to be made.

Future work

Research should further explore the development of measures that can be used to compare the effectiveness of different contact investigations, in studies using evaluative designs.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Passive case finding for tuberculosis is not enough

Current World Health Organisation targets calling for an end to the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2035 require a dramatic improvement in current case-detection strategies. A reliance on passive case finding (PCF) has resulted consistently, in over three million infectious TB cases per year, being missed by the health system, leading to ongoing transmission of infection within families and communities. Active case finding (ACF) for TB has been recognized as an important complementary strategy to PCF, in order to diagnose and treat patients earlier, reducing the period of infectiousness and therefore transmission. ACF may also achieve substantial population-level TB control. Local TB epidemiology and the resources available in each setting will influence which populations should be screened, and the types of ACF interventions to use for maximal impact. TB control programs should begin with the highest risk groups and broaden their activities as resources allow. Mathematical models can help to predict the population-level effects and the cost-effectiveness of a variety of ACF strategies on different risk populations.

Research Methods in Healthcare Epidemiology and Antimicrobial Stewardship-Mathematical Modeling

Mathematical modeling is a valuable methodology used to study healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship, particularly when more traditional study approaches are infeasible, unethical, costly, or time consuming. We focus on 2 of the most common types of mathematical modeling, namely compartmental modeling and agent-based modeling, which provide important advantages-such as shorter developmental timelines and opportunities for extensive experimentation-over observational and experimental approaches. We summarize these advantages and disadvantages via specific examples and highlight recent advances in the methodology. A checklist is provided to serve as a guideline in the development of mathematical models in healthcare epidemiology and antimicrobial stewardship. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1-7.

Risk of Active Tuberculosis among Index Case of Householders-A Long-Term Assessment after the Conventional Contacts Study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of active tuberculosis (TB) among household contacts of TB-index cases diagnosed during a 7-year period in a public Primary Care Center located in a high-incidence area.

DESIGN AND SAMPLE

A retrospective cohort study was performed. Data collection was based on the capture-recapture method; the two main sources crossed information from TB-index and contact cases from the El Fondo Primary Care Center (Santa Coloma de Gramenet, Spain) and their reports to the National Epidemiologic Surveillance Service.

MEASURES

Variables were divided into demographic and health data (result of the Mantoux test, chest X-ray, presence of risk factors, and indication for chemoprophylaxis).

RESULTS

Community nurses identified 103 household contacts that underwent the conventional contact study. Overall, 60.19% were male; the mean age was 29.08 years. Only one case of secondary active TB was found, representing an incidence of 0.56% per TB-index case and year.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of new secondary TB among household contacts with TB-index cases was of a case. Nevertheless, a long-term follow-up of these householders beyond the conventional contacts study should be considered in areas with higher incidences of TB or among specific high-risk populations.

The transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high burden settings

Unacceptable levels of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission are noted in high burden settings and a renewed focus on reducing person-to-person transmission in these communities is needed. We review recent developments in the understanding of airborne transmission. We outline approaches to measure transmission in populations and trials and describe the Wells-Riley equation, which is used to estimate transmission risk in indoor spaces. Present research priorities include the identification of effective strategies for tuberculosis infection control, improved understanding of where transmission occurs and the transmissibility of drug-resistant strains, and estimates of the effect of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on transmission dynamics. When research is planned and interventions are designed to interrupt transmission, resource constraints that are common in high burden settings-including shortages of health-care workers-must be considered.

A Systematic Literature Review of Agents Applied in Healthcare

Intelligent agents and healthcare have been intimately linked in the last years. The intrinsic complexity and diversity of care can be tackled with the flexibility, dynamics and reliability of multi-agent systems. The purpose of this review is to show the feasibility of applying intelligent agents in the healthcare domain and use the findings to provide a discussion of current trends and devise future research directions. A review of the most recent literature (2009-2014) of applications of agents in healthcare is discussed, and two classifications considering the main goal of the health systems as well as the main actors involved have been investigated. This review shows that the number of published works exhibits a growing interest of researchers in this field in a wide range of applications.

Distribution and transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex lineages among children in peri-urban Kampala, Uganda

Background

To gain insight into the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in peri-urban Kampala-Uganda, we performed a household contact study using children as a surrogate for recent transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). Using this approach, we sought to understand M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC) lineage diversity, distribution and how these relate to TB transmission to exposed children.

Method

MTBC isolates from children aged ≤ 15 years, collected from 2002 to 2010 in a household-contact study, were analyzed using a LightCycler RT-PCR SNP genotyping assay (LRPS). The resultant genotypic data was used to determine associations between MTBC lineage and the children’s clinical and epidemiological characteristics.

Results and discussion

Of the 761 children surveyed, 9 % (69/761) had culture-positive TB an estimate in the range of global childhood TB; of these 71 % (49/69) were infected with an MTBC strain of the “Uganda family”, 17 % (12/69) infected with MTBC lineage 4 strains other than MTBC Uganda family and 12 % (8/69) infected with MTBC lineage 3, thereby disproportionately causing TB in the study area. Overall the data showed no correlation between the MTBC lineages studied and transmission (OR = 0.304; P-value = 0.251; CI: 95 %; 0.039-2.326) using children a proxy for TB transmission.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that MTBC Uganda family strains are the main cause of TB in children in peri-urban Kampala. Furthermore, MTBC lineages did not differ in their transmissibility to children.

Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas

Comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis (TB) control is still lacking. In this study, we use a computational model, calibrated against notification data from Arkansas during the period 2001-2011, that reproduces independent data on key features of TB transmission and epidemiology. The model estimates that the Arkansas contact investigations program has avoided 18.6% (12.1-25.9%) of TB cases and 23.7% (16.4-30.6%) of TB deaths that would have occurred during 2001-2014 if passive diagnosis alone were implemented. If contacts of sputum smear-negative cases had not been included in the program, the percentage reduction would have been remarkably lower. In addition, we predict that achieving national targets for performance indicators of contact investigation programs has strong potential to further reduce TB transmission and burden. However, contact investigations are expected to have limited effectiveness on avoiding reactivation cases of latent infections over the next 60 years.

A microbiological revolution meets an ancient disease: improving the management of tuberculosis with genomics

Tuberculosis (TB) is an ancient disease with an enormous global impact. Despite declining global incidence, the diagnosis, phenotyping, and epidemiological investigation of TB require significant clinical microbiology laboratory resources. Current methods for the detection and characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis consist of a series of laboratory tests varying in speed and performance, each of which yields incremental information about the disease. Since the sequencing of the first M. tuberculosis genome in 1998, genomic tools have aided in the diagnosis, treatment, and control of TB. Here we summarize genomics-based methods that are positioned to be introduced in the modern clinical TB laboratory, and we highlight how recent advances in genomics will improve the detection of antibiotic resistance-conferring mutations and the understanding of M. tuberculosis transmission dynamics and epidemiology. We imagine the future TB clinic as one that relies heavily on genomic interrogation of the M. tuberculosis isolate, allowing for more rapid diagnosis of TB and real-time monitoring of outbreak emergence.

Barriers to adherence with tuberculosis contact investigation in six provinces of Vietnam: a nested case-control study

Background

Close contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) have a substantial risk of developing the disease, particularly during the first year after exposure. Household contact investigation has recently been recommended as a strategy to enhance case detection in high-burden countries. However the barriers to its implementation in these settings remain poorly understood.

Methods

A nested case–control study was conducted in Vietnam within the context of a large cluster randomised controlled trial of active screening for TB in household contacts of patients with pulmonary TB. The study population comprised contacts (and their index patients) from 12 Districts in six provinces throughout the country. Cases were contacts (and their index patients) that did not attend the scheduled screening appointment. Controls were those who did attend. We assessed relevant knowledge, attitudes and practices in cases and controls.

Results

The acceptability of contact investigation was high among both cases (n = 109) and controls (n = 194). Both cases (47%) and controls (36%) commonly reported discrimination against people with TB. Cases were less likely than controls to understand that sharing sleeping quarters with a TB patient increased their risk of disease (OR 0.46, 0.27 – 0.78) or recognise TB as an infectious disease (OR 0.65, 0.39 – 1.08). A higher proportion of cases than controls held the mistaken traditional belief that a non-infectious form of TB caused the disease (OR 1.69, 1.02 – 2.78).

Conclusions

The knowledge, attitudes and practices of contacts and TB patients influence their ongoing participation in contact investigation. TB case detection policies in high-prevalence settings can be strengthened by systematically evaluating and addressing locally important barriers to attendance.

Trial registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12610000600044.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-0816-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.