Carotid Artery Plaques, Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, and Risk of Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Death in Older Adults: A 5-Year Prospective, Community-Based Study

Carotid Plaques and Hypertension as Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in Middle-Aged Adults

Background/Objectives: Both hypertension and carotid atherosclerosis are independent risk factors for cardiovascular disease. We aim to investigate the synergistic effects of hypertension and carotid plaques on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. Methods: A follow-up study was conducted at the Preventive Cardiology Department of Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Klinikos between 2012 and 2021. The study recruited participants aged 40-65 who did not have overt cardiovascular disease (CVD) and were part of the Lithuanian High Cardiovascular Risk primary preventive program. The study collected demographic and clinical data, including an ultrasound assessment of carotid plaque. Results: The participants were monitored for 4-10 years for CVD events and all-cause mortality. Among 6138 participants, 954 (16%) experienced CVD events. The presence of carotid plaque on both sides was significantly associated with CVD events, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality. However, the combination of hypertension and carotid plaque did not significantly increase the risk for CVD events or all-cause mortality. Conclusions: The risk of CVD events or all-cause mortality was not significantly increased by the combination of hypertension and carotid plaque. Cardiovascular events depend on the extent of atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries.

Assessment of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Asymptomatic People In Vivo: Measurements Suitable for Biomarker and Mendelian Randomization Studies

BACKGROUND

One strategy to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease is the early detection and treatment of atherosclerosis. This has led to significant interest in studies of subclinical atherosclerosis, using different phenotypes, not all of which are accurate reflections of the presence of asymptomatic atherosclerotic plaques. The aim of part 2 of this series is to provide a review of the existing literature on purported measures of subclinical disease and recommendations concerning which tests may be appropriate in the prevention of incident cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We conducted a critical review of measurements used to infer the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis in the major conduit arteries and focused on the predictive value of these tests for future cardiovascular events, independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors, in asymptomatic people. The emphasis was on studies with >10 000 person-years of follow-up, with meta-analysis of results reporting adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The arterial territories were limited to carotid, coronary, aorta, and lower limb arteries.

RESULTS

In the carotid arteries, the presence of plaque (8 studies) was independently associated with future stroke (pooled HR, 1.89 [1.04-3.44]) and cardiac events (7 studies), with a pooled HR, 1.77 (1.19-2.62). Increased coronary artery calcium (5 studies) was associated with the risk of coronary heart disease events, pooled HR, 1.54 (1.07-2.07) and increasing severity of calcification (by Agaston score) was associated with escalation of risk (13 studies). An ankle/brachial index (ABI) of <0.9, the pooled HR for cardiovascular death from 7 studies was 2.01 (1.43-2.81). There were insufficient studies of either, thoracic or aortic calcium, aortic diameter, or femoral plaque to synthesize the data based on consistent reporting of these measures.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of carotid plaque, coronary artery calcium, or abnormal ankle pressures seems to be a valid indicator of the presence of subclinical atherosclerosis and may be considered for use in biomarker, Mendelian randomization and similar studies.

Varying Definitions of Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Future Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has been widely used as a predictor of future cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, various definitions of cIMT exist. This study provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the associations between different cIMT definitions and CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A systematic review of the different cIMT definitions used in prospective cohort studies was performed. The relationships between cIMT of different definitions (common carotid artery IMT [CCA-IMT], internal carotid artery IMT [ICA-IMT], combined segments [combined-IMT], mean CCA-IMT, and maximum CCA-IMT) with future stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and CVD events were analyzed using random effects models. Among 2287 articles, 18 articles (14 studies) with >10 different cIMT definitions were identified and included in our meta-analysis. After adjusting for age and sex, a 1-SD increase in CCA-IMT was associated with future stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32 [95% CI, 1.27-1.38]), MI (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.22-1.33]), and CVD events (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.19-1.37]). A 1-SD increase in ICA-IMT was related to future stroke (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.11-1.42]) and CVD events (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.04-1.50]) but not MI (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.98-1.61]). A 1-SD increase in combined-IMT was associated with future stroke (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.08-1.57]) and CVD events (HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.23-1.49]). Maximum CCA-IMT was more strongly related than mean CCA-IMT with risk of MI, and both measures were similarly associated with stroke and CVD events.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined-IMT is more strongly associated with CVD events compared with single-segment cIMT definitions. Maximum CCA-IMT shows a stronger association with MI than mean CCA-IMT. Further research is warranted to validate our findings and to standardize the cIMT measurement protocol, as well as to explore underlying mechanisms.

Machine learning models for predicting the risk factor of carotid plaque in cardiovascular disease

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a group of diseases involving the heart or blood vessels and represents a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Carotid plaque is an important risk factor for CVD that can reflect the severity of atherosclerosis. Accordingly, developing a prediction model for carotid plaque formation is essential to assist in the early prevention and management of CVD.

Methods

In this study, eight machine learning algorithms were established, and their performance in predicting carotid plaque risk was compared. Physical examination data were collected from 4,659 patients and used for model training and validation. The eight predictive models based on machine learning algorithms were optimized using the above dataset and 10-fold cross-validation. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) tool was used to compute and visualize feature importance. Then, the performance of the models was evaluated according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), feature importance, accuracy and specificity.

Results

The experimental results indicated that the XGBoost algorithm outperformed the other machine learning algorithms, with an AUC, accuracy and specificity of 0.808, 0.749 and 0.762, respectively. Moreover, age, smoke, alcohol drink and BMI were the top four predictors of carotid plaque formation. It is feasible to predict carotid plaque risk using machine learning algorithms.

Conclusions

This study indicates that our models can be applied to routine chronic disease management procedures to enable more preemptive, broad-based screening for carotid plaque and improve the prognosis of CVD patients.

Frailty in relation to the risk of carotid atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events in Chinese community-dwelling older adults: A five-year prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the frailty, as estimated by accumulated health deficits, in association with the symptomatic carotid atherosclerosis and in relation to five-year cardiovascular (CVD) outcomes.

METHODS

This is a five-year prospective cohort study. Secondary analysis of data from the Beijing Longitudinal Study on Aging. Community-dwelling people aged 55+ years (n = 1257) have been followed between 2009 and 2014, and having carotid ultrasonography examinations with no CVD events at baseline. Frailty was quantified using the deficit accumulation-based frailty index (FI), constructed from 37 health deficits assessed at baseline. The association between the degree of frailty and carotid atherosclerosis was examined using odds ratios (OR) with multivariate logistic regression analyses. Effects of frailty on the probability of five-year cardiovascular events and mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard ratios (HR). The analyses were adjusted for demographics, baseline carotid atherosclerosis status, and CVD risk factors.

RESULTS

The FI showed characteristic properties and was independently associated with the major carotid atherosclerosis symptoms, including carotid artery intima-media thickening (the most frail vs. the least frail: OR = 4.39: 1.98-7.82), carotid plaque (OR = 3.41: 1.28-6.54), and carotid plaque stability (OR = 1.19, 95 % CI: 1.01-3.59). Compared with the least frail, the most frail individuals were more likely to develop a cardiovascular event in five years, including myocardial infarction (HR = 3.38, 95 % CI = 1.84-6.19), stroke (HR = 1.26, 95 % CI = 1.00-5.87), CVD death (HR = 6.33, 95 % CI = 1.69-11.02), and all-cause death (HR = 5.95, 95 % CI = 2.74-8.95).

CONCLUSION

Deficit accumulation was closely associated with carotid atherosclerosis risks and strongly predicted five-year CVD events. The frailty index can be used to help identify older adults at high risks of CVD for improved preventive healthcare.

Polyvascular Subclinical Atherosclerosis: Correlation Between Ankle Brachial Index and Carotid Atherosclerosis in a Population-Based Sample

We assessed the correlation between the biomarkers of lower limb atherosclerosis (eg, ankle-brachial index [ABI]) and of carotid atherosclerosis (eg, common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and presence of atherosclerotic plaque) in a population-based cohort from Girona (Northwest Spain) recruited in 2010. Ankle-brachial index and carotid ultrasound were performed in all participants. Generalized additive multivariable models were used to adjust a regression model of common carotid IMT on ABI. Logistic regression multivariable models were adjusted to assess the probability of carotid plaque in individuals with peripheral artery disease. We included 3307 individuals (54.2% women), mean age 60 years (standard deviation 11). Two patterns of association were observed between subclinical biomarkers of atherosclerosis at the lower limb and carotid artery. Ankle-brachial index and common carotid IMT showed a linear trend in men [beta coefficient (95% confidence interval) =-.068 (-.123; -.012); P = .016]. Women with peripheral artery disease presented with high risk of atherosclerotic plaque at the carotid artery [Odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 2.61, (1.46; 4.69); P = .001]. Men showed a significant linear association between ABI levels and common carotid IMT values. Women with peripheral artery disease presented with high risk of atherosclerotic plaque at the carotid artery.

Evaluation of Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis and Arterial Stiffness in Cardiovascular Disease Risk: An Ongoing Prospective Study From the Kailuan Cohort

Objective

To assess whether carotid artery ultrasonography and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurement can accurately predict cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, and all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD).

Methods

Patients from the Kailuan Study Stroke Cohort (Tangshan, China) who underwent carotid artery ultrasonography and baPWV measurement between June 2010 and June 2011 were included in this study. The effects of carotid plaque, baPWV, and their combination on cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (MI), cerebral ischemic stroke, cerebrovascular events, and all-cause mortality, were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

A total of 4,899 participants (59.7% males; 54.18 ± 11.52 years old) were analyzed. During a mean follow-up of 5.68 ± 0.66 years, the incidence of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality were 4.94‰ person-years and 7.02‰ person-years, respectively; 32.8% of participants had both carotid artery atherosclerosis and increased arterial stiffness. A high baPWV alone was associated with an increased risk of CVD events [hazard ratio (HR): 2.68; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.20–6.00; P = 0.007] and cerebral infarction (HR: 5.92; 95% CI: 1.76–19.93; P = 0.004), but not with MI or all-cause death. The presence of both carotid plaque and high baPWV was highly associated with an increased risk of CVD events (HR: 4.65; 95% CI: 2.06–10.45; P < 0.001) and cerebral infarction (HR: 9.21; 95% CI: 2.71–31.19; P < 0.001), but not with MI or all-cause death. Similar results were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier analyses.

Conclusion

The presence of carotid plaque and high baPWV were associated with a high risk of CVD events and ischemic stroke. Moreover, the combination of carotid artery ultrasonography and baPWV measurement could predict the risk for CVD ability more accurately than a single measurement alone.

Association of atherosclerotic plaque and prediabetes. Observational study with propensity score matching

INTRODUCTION

Subjects with prediabetes, defined as impaired fasting blood glucose (IFG), have an increased cardiovascular risk. The main objective of the study is to establish whether prediabetes is associated with the presence of subclinical atherosclerotic plaque (pATS) regardless of age, sex, arterial hypertension and other cardiovascular risk factores.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Observational study with propensity score matching (PSM). We included 481 subjects with prediabetes (according to the criteria of the American Diabetes Association) and 481 controls matched for age, sex, and hypertension. Subjects with coronary artery disease and/or peripheral vascular disease and/or diabetes were excluded. pATS was defined as the presence of plaque detected by carotid doppler ultrasound.

RESULTS

The prevalence of pATS was 34.7% in prediabetic subjects compared to 28.8% in controls. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) after controlling for age, sex, hypertension, and HDL-c was 1.29 (95% CI: 1.12-1.48; P<.001). The prevalence of pATS was 42.3% in hypertensive prediabetic subjects compared to 32.9% in controls (OR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.05-2.12; P: .02). We also observed higher pATS (18.7%) in younger subjects (≤55 years) compared to controls (11.1%) of the same age (OR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.05-3.2; P: .03).

CONCLUSION

Subjects with prediabetes were associated with a higher prevalence of pATS. The possibility (odds) of presenting subclinical atherosclerosis was 29% higher in subjects with prediabetes after adjusting for age, sex, hypertension and HDL-c.

Evaluation of Intima-Media Thickness and Arterial Stiffness as Early Ultrasound Biomarkers of Carotid Artery Atherosclerosis

Carotid atherosclerosis is a major and potentially preventable cause of ischemic stroke. It begins early in life and progresses silently over the years. Identification of individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis is needed to initiate early aggressive vascular prevention. Although carotid plaque appears to be a powerful predictor of cardiovascular risk, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and arterial stiffness can be detected at the initial phases and, therefore, they are considered important new biomarkers of carotid atherosclerosis. There is a well-documented association between CIMT and cerebrovascular events. CIMT provides a reliable marker in young people, in whom plaque formation or calcification is not established. However, the usefulness of CIMT measurement in the improvement of risk cardiovascular models is still controversial. Carotid stiffness is also significantly associated with ischemic stroke. Carotid stiffness adds value to the existing risk prediction based on Framingham risk factors, particularly individuals at intermediate cardiovascular risk. Carotid ultrasound is used to assess carotid atherosclerosis. During the last decade, automated techniques for sophisticated analysis of vascular mechanics have evolved, such as speckle tracking, and new methods based on deep learning have been proposed with promising outcomes. Additional research is needed to investigate the imaging-based cardiovascular risk prediction of CIMT and stiffness.

Intima Media Thickness and Cognitive Function Among Adults: Meta-Analysis of Observational and Longitudinal Studies

Background

Carotid structural changes measured by intima media thickness (IMT) have been related to cognitive complaints during aging. Therefore, the aims of this meta‐analysis were (1) to elucidate the relationship between vascular status, measured as IMT, and cognitive domains distinguishing between global cognition, executive functions, memory and attention; and (2) to explore whether demographic (ie, age and sex), clinical (ie, body mass index and IMT baseline values), and procedure characteristics influence this association.

Methods and Results

We performed a systematic review of MEDLINE (via PubMed), Scopus, and Web of Science databases from their inception to June 2021. Studies meeting the following inclusion criteria were included: (1) the participants were adults; (2) the exposure was carotid IMT; (3) the outcome was cognitive function, including global cognition, executive function, memory, and attention measured using standardized tests; and (4) the study design was cross‐sectional or longitudinal including unadjusted and adjusted analyses. A total of 19 cross‐sectional and 15 longitudinal studies were included and demographic (age and sex), clinical (body mass index and baseline IMT values), and procedure characteristics were analyzed as potential mediator or moderators of the association.

Conclusions

Our data support negative associations between IMT and cognitive function in cross‐sectional studies. The association between IMT and cognition lost significance in longitudinal studies and when controlling for covariates in cross‐sectional studies. Finally, the strength of these associations seems not to be modified by age, sex, body mass index, and baseline IMT values. This systematic review and meta‐analysis adds to the evidence supporting the use of IMT as a measure for identifying patients at risk of cognitive decline.

Imaging-guided evaluation of subclinical atherosclerosis to enhance cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic low-to-intermediate risk individuals: A systematic review

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), plaque quantification and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring have been suggested to improve risk prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD), particularly for asymptomatic individuals classified as low-to-intermediate risk. We aimed to compare the predictive value of cIMT, carotid plaque identification, and CAC scoring for identifying sub-clinical atherosclerosis and assessing future risk of CVD in asymptomatic, low-to-intermediate risk individuals. We conducted a comprehensive search of Ovid (Embase and Medline), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Medline complete (EBSCO health). A total of 30 papers were selected and data were extracted. Comparisons were made according to the cIMT measurement (mean, maximum), carotid plaque evaluation (presence or area), and CAC scoring. CVD event rates, hazard ratios (HR), net reclassification index (NRI), and c-statistic of the markers were compared. There were 27 studies that reported cIMT, 24 reported carotid plaque, and 6 reported CAC scoring. Inclusion of CAC scores yielded the highest HR ranging from 1.45 (95% CI, 1.11-1.88, p = 0.006) to 3.95 (95% CI, 2.97-5.27, p < 0.001), followed by maximum cIMT (HR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.11, p < 0.001 to 2.58; 95% CI, 1.83-3.62, p < 0.001) and carotid plaque presence (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2, p = 0.39 to 2.43; 95% CI, 1.7-3.47, p < 0.001). The c-statistic enhanced predictive value by a minimum increase of 0.7. Finally, the NRI ranked higher with CAC (≥11.2%), followed by carotid plaque (≥2%) and cIMT (3%). CAC scoring was superior compared to carotid plaque and cIMT measurements in asymptomatic individuals classified as being at low-to-intermediate risk.

Left Atrial Spontaneous Echo Contrast and Ischemic Stroke in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Closure

Objectives: Spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in the left atrium (LA) is frequently observed in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and may lead to thromboembolic events. We aimed to investigate both periprocedural and long-term stroke risks associated with LA SEC in AF patients undergoing percutaneous left atrial appendage closure (LAAC). Methods: A total of 408 consecutive AF patients treated with LAAC between March 2015 and February 2019 were divided into two groups based on preprocedural transesophageal echocardiography: the study group (moderate/severe LA SEC; n = 41) and the control group (none, mild, or mild to moderate LA SEC; n = 367). To attenuate the observed imbalance in baseline covariates, a propensity score matching technique was used. Results: No periprocedural stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) was documented. The incidence of device-related thrombus was higher in the study group than in the control group (8.8 vs. 1.3%; P = 0.025). The mean follow-up period was 3.2 ± 1.1 years, during which 8 patients (2.2%) in the control group and 4 (9.8%) in the study group experienced stroke/TIA (P = 0.024). Moderate/severe LA SEC was identified as an independent predictor of stroke/TIA in both the original population (HR = 5.71, 95% CI 1.47-22.19, P = 0.012) and the matched population (HR = 9.79, 95% CI 1.44-66.86, P = 0.020). Conclusions: LA SEC did not show a relationship with periprocedural stroke events in patients undergoing percutaneous LAAC. However, moderate/severe LA SEC increased the incidence of device-related thrombus and the risk of late stroke/TIA.

Carotid intima media thickness measurements coupled with stroke severity strongly predict short-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke: a machine learning study

Acute ischemic stroke (IS) is one of the leading causes of morbidity, functional disability and mortality worldwide. The objective was to evaluate IS risk factors and imaging variables as predictors of short-term disability and mortality in IS. Consecutive 106 IS patients were enrolled. We examined the accuracy of IS severity using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid stenosis (both assessed using ultrasonography with doppler) predicting IS outcome assessed with the modified Rankin scale (mRS) three months after hospital admission. Poor prognosis (mRS ≥ 3) at three months was predicted by carotid stenosis (≥ 50%), type 2 diabetes mellitus and NIHSS with an accuracy of 85.2% (sensitivity: 90.2%; specificity: 81.8%). The mRS score at three months was strongly predicted by NIHSS (β = 0.709, p < 0.001). Short-term mortality was strongly predicted using a neural network model with cIMT (≥ 1.0 mm versus < 1.0 mm), NIHSS and age, yielding an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.977 and an accuracy of 94.7% (sensitivity: 100.0%; specificity: 90.9%). High NIHSS (≥ 15) and cIMT (≥ 1.0 mm) increased the probability of dying with hazard ratios of 7.62 and 3.23, respectively. Baseline NIHSS was significantly predicted by the combined effects of age, large artery atherosclerosis stroke, sex, cIMT, body mass index, and smoking. In conclusion, high values of cIMT and NIHSS at admission strongly predict short-term functional impairment as well as mortality three months after IS, underscoring the importance of those measurements to predict clinical IS outcome.

Lumbar spine bone mineral density and trabecular bone score-adjusted FRAX, but not FRAX without bone mineral density, identify subclinical carotid atherosclerosis

PURPOSE

Osteoporosis and atherosclerosis share common risk factors. Aim of this study was to test if FRAX (which is an algorithm that can identify subjects at risk of fracture), without or with BMD values, also adjusted for trabecular bone score (TBS) was able to identify subclinical atherosclerosis, evaluated by measurement of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT ≥ 0.9 mm) as compared to DXA values.

METHODS

Ninety postmenopausal women underwent DXA measurement and cIMT evaluation. For each patient, the FRAX algorithm for major osteoporotic fracture (M) and for hip fracture (H) without BMD was computed, together with FRAX with BMD and TBS-adjusted FRAX. Serum levels of osteoprotegerin, sRANKL, and interleukin-6 were also measured.

RESULTS

There were no differences in anthropometric parameters and cardiovascular risk factors between subjects with cIMT ≥ 0.9 mm (35% of subjects, group A) compared to those with cIMT < 0.9 mm (group B). The prevalence of osteoporosis and FRAX BMD, TBS-adjusted FRAX both for M and H were higher in group A compared to group B. The best ROC curves to identify subjects with a cIMT ≥ 0.9 mm were: lumbar spine T-score, with a threshold of - 2.5 SD (area under the curve, AUC 0.64; p = 0.02) with a sensibility of 50% and a specificity of 76%; TBS-adjusted FRAX H with a sensibility of 50% and a specificity of 72% (AUC 0.64; p = 0.01 with a threshold of 3%). Interleukin-6 positively correlated with FRAX BMD H and M.

CONCLUSIONS

FRAX without BMD does not identify subclinical carotid atherosclerosis, while lumbar spine T-score and TBS-adjusted FRAX H similarly detected it with higher specificity for T-score.

Cholesterol Efflux Capacity Associates with the Ankle-Brachial Index but Not All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease

Background: Cholesterol efflux is an important mechanism by which high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) protect against cardiovascular disease. As peripheral artery disease (PAD) is associated with high mortality rates, mainly due to cardiovascular causes, we investigated whether cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC) of apolipoprotein B (apoB)-depleted plasma, a widely used surrogate of HDL function, may serve as a predictive marker for mortality in this patient population. Methods: In this prospective single-center study (median follow-up time: 9.3 years), apoB-containing lipoproteins were precipitated from plasma of 95 patients with PAD and incubated with J744-macrophages, which were loaded with radiolabeled cholesterol. CEC was defined as the fractional radiolabel released during 4 h of incubation. Results: Baseline CEC was lower in PAD patients that currently smoked (p = 0.015) and had a history of myocardial infarction (p = 0.011). Moreover, CEC showed a significant correlation with HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.003) and apolipoprotein A-I levels (p = 0.001) as well as the ankle-brachial index (ABI, p = 0.018). However, CEC did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. Neither revealed Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses any significant association of CEC with all-cause mortality rates. Conclusion: Taken together, CEC is associated with ABI but does not predict all-cause mortality in patients with PAD.

Immune-inflammatory, coagulation, adhesion, and imaging biomarkers combined in machine learning models improve the prediction of death 1 year after ischemic stroke

Some clinical, imaging, and laboratory biomarkers have been identified as predictors of prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of a combination of clinical, imaging, and laboratory biomarkers in predicting 1-year mortality of IS. We evaluated 103 patients with IS within 24 h of their hospital admission and assessed demographic data, IS severity using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), and degree of stenosis, as well as laboratory variables including immune-inflammatory, coagulation, and endothelial dysfunction biomarkers. The IS patients were categorized as survivors and non-survivors 1 year after admission. Non-survivors showed higher NIHSS and cIMT values, lower antithrombin, Protein C, platelet counts, and albumin, and higher Factor VIII, von Willebrand Factor (vWF), white blood cells, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-10, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and vascular cellular adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) than survivors. Neural network models separated non-survivors from survivors using NIHSS, cIMT, age, IL-6, TNF-α, hsCRP, Protein C, Protein S, vWF, and platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1 (PECAM-1) with an area under the receiving operating characteristics curve (AUC/ROC) of 0.975, cross-validated accuracy of 93.3%, sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 85.7%. In conclusion, imaging, immune-inflammatory, and coagulation biomarkers add predictive information to the NIHSS clinical score and these biomarkers in combination may act as predictors of 1-year mortality after IS. An early prediction of IS outcome is important for personalized therapeutic strategies that may improve the outcome of IS.

Intake of food rich in saturated fat in relation to subclinical atherosclerosis and potential modulating effects from single genetic variants

The relationship between intake of saturated fats and subclinical atherosclerosis, as well as the possible influence of genetic variants, is poorly understood and investigated. We aimed to investigate this relationship, with a hypothesis that it would be positive, and to explore whether genetics may modulate it, using data from a European cohort including 3,407 participants aged 54–79 at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT), measured at baseline and after 30 months. Logistic regression (OR; 95% CI) was employed to assess the association between high intake of food rich in saturated fat (vs. low) and: (1) the mean and the maximum values of C-IMT in the whole carotid artery (C-IMT_mean, C-IMT_max), in the bifurcation (Bif-), the common (CC-) and internal (ICA-) carotid arteries at baseline (binary, cut-point ≥ 75th), and (2) C-IMT progression (binary, cut-point > zero). For the genetic-diet interaction analyses, we considered 100,350 genetic variants. We defined interaction as departure from additivity of effects. After age- and sex-adjustment, high intake of saturated fat was associated with increased C-IMT_mean (OR:1.27;1.06–1.47), CC-IMT_mean (OR:1.22;1.04–1.44) and ICA-IMT_mean (OR:1.26;1.07–1.48). However, in multivariate analysis results were no longer significant. No clear associations were observed between high intake of saturated fat and risk of atherosclerotic progression. There was no evidence of interactions between high intake of saturated fat and any of the genetic variants considered, after multiple testing corrections. High intake of saturated fats was not independently associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. Moreover, we did not identify any significant genetic-dietary fat interactions in relation to risk of subclinical atherosclerosis.

Validation of 10-Year Stroke Prediction Scores in a Community-Based Cohort of Chinese Older Adults

A stroke prediction model based on the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) project was developed. We compared its predictive ability with the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) for 5-year stroke incidence in a community cohort of Chinese adults, namely the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA). Calibration, discrimination, and recalibration were used to compare the predictive ability between the two prediction models. Category-less net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values were also assessed. During a mean follow-up duration of 5.1 years, 106 incidents of fatal or non-fatal strokes occurred among 1,203 participants aged 55–84 years. The R-FSRS applied to our cohort underestimated the 5-year risk for stroke in men and women. China-PAR performed better than the R-FSRS in terms of calibration (men, R-FSRS: χ²-value 144.2 [P < 0.001], China-PAR: 10.4 [P = 0.238]; women, R-FSRS: 280.1 [P < 0.001], China-PAR: 12.5 [P = 0.129]). In terms of discrimination, R-FSRS and China-PAR models performed modestly in our cohort (C-statistic 0.603 [95% CI: 0.560–0.644] for men using China-PAR and 0.568 [95% CI: 0.524–0.610] using the R-FSRS; the corresponding numbers for women were 0.602 [95% CI: 0.564–0.639] and 0.575 [95% CI: 0.537–0.613). The recalibrated China-PAR model significantly improved the discrimination in C statistics and produced higher category-less NRI and IDI for stroke incidence than the R-FSRS. Although China-PAR fairly estimated stroke risk in our cohort, it did not sufficiently identify adults at high risk of stroke. Caution would be exercised by practitioners in applying the original China-PAR to Chinese older adults. Further studies are needed to develop an adequate prediction model based on the recalibrated China-PAR or to find new risk markers which could upgrade this model.

The Risk of Stroke and TIA in Nonstenotic Carotid Plaques: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe carotid stenosis carries a high risk of stroke. However, the risk of stroke with nonstenotic carotid plaques (<50%) is increasingly recognized.

PURPOSE

We aimed to summarize the risk of TIA or stroke in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques.

DATA SOURCES

We performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke in whom carotid imaging was performed using MEDLINE and the Cochrane Database, including studies published up to December 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Included studies had >10 patients with <50% carotid plaques on any imaging technique and reported the incidence or recurrence of ischemic stroke/TIA. High-risk plaque features and the risk of progression to stenosis >50% were extracted if reported.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We identified 31 studies reporting on the risk of ipsilateral stroke/TIA in patients with nonstenotic carotid plaques. Twenty-five studies (n = 13,428 participants) reported on first-ever stroke/TIA and 6 studies (n = 122 participants) reported on the recurrence of stroke/TIA.

DATA ANALYSIS

The incidence of first-ever ipsilateral stroke/TIA was 0.5/100 person-years. The risk of recurrent stroke/TIA was 2.6/100 person-years and increased to 4.9/100 person-years if intraplaque hemorrhage was present. The risk of progression to severe stenosis (>50%) was 2.9/100 person-years (8 studies, n = 448 participants).

LIMITATIONS

Included studies showed heterogeneity in reporting stroke etiology, the extent of stroke work-up, imaging modalities, and classification systems used for characterizing carotid stenosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of recurrent stroke/TIA in nonstenotic carotid plaques is not negligible, especially in the presence of high-risk plaque features. Further research is needed to better define the significance of nonstenotic carotid plaques for stroke etiology.

Subclinical Atherosclerosis Markers of Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Carotid Plaques, Carotid Stenosis, and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Adults

Carotid intima–media thickness (IMT), plaque, and stenosis are widely used as early surrogate markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and strong predictors of future deaths and cardiovascular events. Albuminuria is an indicator of generalized endothelial dysfunction that speeds up atherosclerosis. However, previous studies reporting these associations cannot rule out the confounding effect of albuminuria. We aimed to examine the independent and joint relationships between IMT markers and 10-year mortality in community-dwelling Taiwanese adults. This work was a community-based prospective cohort study consisting of 2956 adults aged at least 30 years recruited in 2007 and followed up through 2019. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine associations of these subclinical atherosclerosis markers with mortality. During an average of 9.41 years of follow up, 242 deaths occurred. The mortality rate was 8.70 per 1000 person-years. Compared with those with carotid IMT less than 1.0 mm, persons with severely increased carotid IMT (≥2.0 mm) had an increased risk for death (hazard ratio (HR): 1.79; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 3.00). Compared with those without carotid plaque, persons with carotid plaque were more likely to have an increased risk for death (1.65; 1.21–2.32). Compared with those with carotid stenosis less than 25%, persons with carotid stenosis of 25–36% had a significant increased risk for death (1.57; 1.12–2.22). Considering these three IMT markers along with the traditional risk factors (c-statistic: 0.85) significantly increased their predictive ability of mortality compared with any individual variable’s predictive ability (all p-values < 0.001 for comparisons of c-statistic values). Carotid IMT measures, including IMT thickness, carotid plaque, and carotid stenosis were significant independent predictors of mortality. Our study supports evidence of blood pressure-related media thickening markers to assess future mortality risks in Chinese adults of general population.

Combined effects of carotid plaques and hypertension on the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

BACKGROUND

Both hypertension and atherosclerotic plaques are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD).

HYPOTHESIS

This study aimed to investigate whether the combined effects of carotid plaques and hypertension increase the risks of CVD and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Patients from the stroke and elderly cohorts of the Kailuan study in China who completed a carotid sonography examination were included in the study. Participants in both cohorts underwent physical examinations between 2010 and 2011 and were divided into four groups: no carotid plaques with normal blood pressure (n = 2227), hypertension only (n = 1290), carotid plaques only (n = 1128), and hypertension with carotid plaques (n = 1862). The outcomes included the first occurrence of CVD and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 6507 participants (mean age, 58.1 ± 11.8 years, 61% males), 157 cardiovascular events, and 210 deaths occurred after average follow-ups of 4.5 and 4.9 years, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, carotid plaques only and hypertension with carotid plaques were associated with excess risk (hazard ratio [HR]; confidence interval [CI]) for the first occurrence of CVD (HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.01-3.44; and HR = 2.97; 95% CI, 1.66-5.29, respectively), cerebral infarction (HR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.16-6.15; and HR = 4.15; 95% CI, 1.87-9.19, respectively), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.96; 95% CI, 1.16-3.31; and HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.09-3.13, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of hypertension and atherosclerotic plaques may increase the risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality, especially cerebral infarction, compared with participants without those factors.

Elevated circulating metalloproteinase 7 predicts recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with carotid stenosis: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Major adverse cardiovascular events are the main cause of morbidity and mortality over the long term in patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy. There are few reports assessing the prognostic value of markers of inflammation in relation to the risk of cardiovascular disease after carotid endarterectomy. Here, we aimed to determine whether matrix metalloproteinases (MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-7, MMP-9 and MMP-10), tissue inhibitor of MMPs (TIMP-1) and in vivo inflammation studied by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT predict recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with carotid stenosis who underwent endarterectomy.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was carried out on 31 consecutive patients with symptomatic (23/31) or asymptomatic (8/31) severe (> 70%) carotid stenosis who were scheduled for carotid endarterectomy between July 2013 and March 2016. In addition, 26 healthy controls were included in the study. Plasma and serum samples were collected 2 days prior to surgery and tested for MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-7, MMP-9, MMP-10, TIMP-1, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate. ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT focusing on several territories' vascular wall metabolism was performed on 29 of the patients because of no presurgical availability in 2 symptomatic patients. Histological and immunohistochemical studies were performed with antibodies targeting MMP-10, MMP-9, TIMP-1 and CD68.

RESULTS

The patients with carotid stenosis had significantly more circulating MMP-1, MMP-7 and MMP-10 than the healthy controls. Intraplaque TIMP-1 was correlated with its plasma level (r = 0.42 P = .02) and with ¹⁸F-FDG uptake (r = 0.38 P = .05). We did not find any correlation between circulating MMPs and in vivo carotid plaque metabolism assessed by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET. After a median follow-up of 1077 days, 4 cerebrovascular, 7 cardiovascular and 11 peripheral vascular events requiring hospitalization were registered. Circulating MMP-7 was capable of predicting events over and above the traditional risk factors (HR = 1.15 P = .006). When the model was associated with the variables of interest, the risk predicted by ¹⁸F-FDG-PET was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating MMP-7 may represent a novel marker for recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with moderate to severe carotid stenosis. MMP-7 may reflect the atherosclerotic burden but not plaque inflammation in this specific vascular territory.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and the Risk of First Stroke in Patients With Hypertension

Background and Purpose—

This study aimed to investigate the association between mean carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and the risk of first stroke and examine any possible effect modifiers in patients with hypertension.

Methods—

A total of 11 547 hypertensive participants without history of stroke from the CSPPT (China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial) were included in this analysis. The primary outcome was first stroke.

Results—

Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 726 first strokes were identified, of which 631 were ischemic, and 90 were hemorrhagic. A per SD increase in mean cIMT was positively associated with the risk of first stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.03–1.20]), and first ischemic stroke (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01–1.20]). Moreover, when cIMT was categorized in quartiles, the higher risks of first stroke (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.06–1.61]) and first hemorrhagic stroke (HR, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.11–4.58]) were found in participants in quartile 2 to 4 (≥0.66 mm), compared with those in quartile 1 (<0.66 mm). More importantly, the cIMT-first stroke association was significantly stronger in participants with higher mean arterial pressure (≥109.3 [quintile 5] versus <109.3 mm Hg, P -interaction=0.024) or diastolic blood pressure levels (≥90.7 [quintile 5] versus <90.7 mm Hg, P -interaction=0.009).

Conclusions—

There was a significant positive association between baseline cIMT and the risk of first stroke in patients with hypertension. This association was even stronger among those with higher mean arterial pressure or diastolic blood pressure levels.

Cardiac biomarkers but not measures of vascular atherosclerosis predict mortality in patients with peripheral artery disease

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) becomes more prevalent with advancing age and is associated with elevated risk of cardiovascular events and shortened life expectancy. We investigated the prognostic performance of cardiac and vascular biomarkers in a cohort of PAD patients.

METHODS

A total of 95 PAD patients were enrolled (mean age 68 years, range 47 to 86 years, 73 males). Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), ankle brachial index (ABI), high sensitive cardiac troponin T, and N-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) were measured.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 9.5 years, 44 patients died and 51 patients survived. Upon Kaplan-Meier survival analysis hs-TnT (P < .001) or NT-proBNP levels (P < .001) above the median but not cIMT above the median (P = .488) or ABI below the median (P < .436)were associated with reduced survival rate. Upon univariate cox regression and after adjustment for age, gender, prior cerebral artery disease, and diabetes mellitus only the association between hs-cTnT and mortality remained significant (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.33-2.79, P < .001). In receiver operating curve analysis hs-cTnT (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.87, P < .001) NT-proBNP (AUC: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64-0.84, P < .001) as well as hs-cTnT, and NT-proBNP combined (AUC: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69-0.88, P < .001) were superior to cIMT (AUC: 0.64, 95%, CI: 0.53-0.76, P = .022) and ABI (AUC: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.44-0.68, P = .313) in discriminating risk for mortality.

CONCLUSION

hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP should be taken into account for prognosis of patients with PAD.

History of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes, Blood Pressure, and Subclinical Vascular Measures in Late Midlife: SWAN (Study of Women's Health Across the Nation)

BACKGROUND

Adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm birth (PTB), have been associated with elevated risk of maternal cardiovascular disease, but their effect on late midlife blood pressure (BP) and subclinical vascular measures remains understudied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis with 1220 multiethnic parous women enrolled in SWAN (Study of Women's Health Across the Nation) to evaluate the impact of self-reported history of adverse pregnancy outcomes (PTB, small-for-gestational-age, stillbirth), on maternal BP, mean arterial pressure, and subclinical vascular measures (carotid intima-media thickness, plaque, and pulse wave velocity) in late midlife. We also examined whether these associations were modified by race/ethnicity. Associations were tested in linear and logistic regression models adjusting for sociodemographics, reproductive factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and medications. Women were on average aged 60 years and 255 women reported a history of an adverse pregnancy outcome. In fully adjusted models, history of PTB was associated with higher BP (systolic: β=6.40; SE, 1.62 [P<0.0001] and diastolic: β=3.18; SE, 0.98 [P=0.001]) and mean arterial pressure (β=4.55; SE 1.13 [P<0.0001]). PTB was associated with lower intima-media thickness, but not after excluding women with prevalent hypertension. There were no significant associations with other subclinical vascular measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that history of PTB is associated with higher BP and mean arterial pressure in late midlife. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were not significantly related to subclinical cardiovascular disease when excluding women with prevalent hypertension. Future studies across the menopause transition may be important to assess the impact of adverse pregnancy outcomes on midlife progression of BP.