Relationship between resting heart rate and long-term outcomes in stabilized patients with myocardial infarction: A prospective community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Resting heart rate (RHR) during hospitalization has been shown to be associated with adverse outcomes in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). This study aimed to evaluate the long-term prognostic effect of RHR during the stable phase after MI in post-MI patients.

METHODS

Patients who had prior or new-onset MI and RHR measurements during the stable period after MI between 2006 and 2018 in the community-based Kailuan Study were enrolled. RHR was divided into four groups based on quartiles. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the association of RHR with primary composite outcome of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), stroke, and recurrent MI and its components.

RESULTS

A total of 4447 post-MI patients were included. During a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 1813 patients (40.8%) developed primary outcomes. Compared to RHR ≤67 bpm, patients with 72 < RHR ≤80 bpm and RHR >80 bpm had increased risks of primary outcome, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.23 (1.08-1.40) and 1.35 (1.18-1.55), respectively. The risk of primary outcome increased by 12% (1.07-1.17) for each 10-bpm increase in RHR. Similar results were observed in all-cause death and hospitalization for HF. Restricted cubic splines revealed a linear relationship between RHR and primary outcome, all-cause death, and hospitalization for HF (P for nonlinearity >0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

RHR during the stable phase after MI was an independent predictor for primary outcome and all-cause death in post-MI patients, and RHR >72 bpm was associated with increased risk for primary outcome and all-cause death.

Importance of resting heart rate

Resting heart rate is a determinant of cardiac output and physiological homeostasis. Although a simple, but critical, parameter, this vital sign predicts adverse outcomes, including mortality, and development of diseases in otherwise normal and healthy individuals. Temporal changes in heart rate can have valuable predictive capabilities. Heart rate can reflect disease severity in patients with various medical conditions. While heart rate represents a compilation of physiological inputs, including sympathetic and parasympathetic tone, aside from the underlying intrinsic sinus rate, how resting heart rate affects outcomes is uncertain. Mechanisms relating resting heart rate to outcomes may be disease-dependent but why resting heart rate in otherwise healthy, normal individuals affects outcomes remains obscure. For specific conditions, physiologically appropriate heart rate reductions may improve outcomes. However, to date, in the normal population, evidence that interventions aimed at reducing heart rate improves outcomes remains undefined. Emerging data suggest that reduction in heart rate via vagal activation and/or sympathetic inhibition is propitious.

Association of Resting Heart Rate Trajectories With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus

CONTEXT

Longitudinal patterns of resting heart rate (RHR) in patients with diabetes mellitus and their association with health outcomes are not well-characterized.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to explore the RHR trajectories in patients with diabetes mellitus and their association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

The Kailuan Study is a prospective cohort study. Participants underwent health examinations biennially starting in 2006 and were followed until December 31, 2020.

SETTING

General community.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 8218 diabetic participants who attended at least 3 of the examinations conducted in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

CVD and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 4 RHR trajectories in participants with diabetes mellitus between 2006 and 2012: low-stable (range, 66.83-64.91 beats/min; n = 1705), moderate-stable (range, 76.30-76.95 beats/min; n = 5437), high-decreasing (mean decreased from 92.14 to 85.60 beats/min; n = 862), and high-increasing (mean increased from 84.03 to 111.62 beats/min; n = 214). During an average follow-up of 7.25 years, 977 cases of CVD and 1162 deaths were identified. Compared with the low-stable trajectory, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD were 1.48 (95% CI, 1.02-2.14; P = .04) for the high-increasing trajectory, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.14-1.58; P < .01) for the moderate-stable trajectory, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.35-2.10; P < .01) for the high-decreasing trajectory, and 2.47 (95% CI, 1.85-3.31; P < .01) for the high-increasing trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

RHR trajectories were associated with the subsequent risks of CVD and all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus.

Association between admission heart rate and major adverse cardiovascular events in acute myocardial infarction participants with different left ventricular ejection fraction

BACKGROUND

This study intended to investigate the independent effect of admission heart rate (HR) on the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients with different left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) levels.

METHODS

The study was a secondary analysis of the Acute Coronary Syndrome Quality Improvement in Kerela Trial. The relationship between admission HR and 30-day adverse outcomes in AMI patients with different LVEF levels was detected using a Logistic regression model. Interaction tests were used to compare the effects of different subgroups on HR and MACEs.

RESULTS

Our study enrolled 18,819 patients. In both partially and fully adjusted models (Model1 and Model2), the risk of MACEs was highest in patients with HR ≥ 120 (OR: 1.62, 95%CI: (1.16, 2.26), P = 0.004, Model1; OR: 1.46, 95%CI: (1.00, 2.12), P = 0.047, Model2). There was a significant interaction between LVEF and HR (P for interaction = 0.003). Meanwhile, the trend test for this association showed that HR was positively and significantly associated with the MACEs in LVEF≥40% group (OR (95%CI): 1.27 (1.12, 1.45), P < 0.001). However, in LVEF<40% group, the trend test was not statistically significant (OR (95%CI): 1.09 (0.93, 1.29), P = 0.269).

CONCLUSION

This study found that elevated admission HR was associated with a significantly higher risk for MACEs in patients admitted with AMI. Elevated admission HR was significantly associated with the risk of MACEs in AMI patients without low LVEF but not those with low LVEF (<40%). LVEF levels should be considered when evaluating the association between admission HR and the prognosis of AMI patients in the future.

Resting heart rate and risk of atrial fibrillation in Chinese general population: Kailuan prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Previous research has shown an association of higher heart rate with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between resting heart rate (RHR) and AF is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between RHR and AF in the general population of China.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

Community based.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 46 126 individuals from the Kailuan study who participated in the first three surveys (2006/2007, 2008/2009 and 2010/2011) and were followed up at 2-year intervals were enrolled.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The association between RHR and risk of incident AF was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic spline models.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty-one individuals (0.52%) developed AF during 7.5 years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, low-density and high-density lipoprotein, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking status, body mass index, mean systolic blood pressure, and history of diabetes and hypertension, the HRs were 2.32 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.72) for an RHR <60 beats/min and 2.80 (1.13 to 6.94) for an RHR ≥100 beats/min in comparison with an RHR of 70-80 beats/min. Restricted cubic spline models revealed a U-shaped relationship between RHR and incident AF.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that RHR and incident AF have a U-shaped relationship in the Chinese general population. Both lower and higher RHRs were associated with an increased risk of AF.

Factors associated with changes in the objectively measured physical activity among Japanese adults: A longitudinal and dynamic panel data analysis

Factors associated with dynamic changes in the objectively measured physical activity have not been well understood. We aimed to 1) evaluate the longitudinal change in the physical activity trajectory according to sex which is associated with age and to 2) determine the factors associated with the dynamic change in physical activity-related variables across a wide age range among Japanese adults. This longitudinal prospective study included 689 Japanese adults (3914 measurements) aged 26-85 years, whose physical activity data in at least two surveys were available. Physical activity-related variables, such as intensity (inactive, light [LPA; 1.5 to 2.9 metabolic equivalents (METs)], moderate-to-vigorous [MVPA; ≥3.0 METs]), total energy expenditure (TEE), physical activity level (PAL), and step count, were evaluated using a validated triaxial accelerometer. Statistical analysis involved the latent growth curve models and random-effect panel data multivariate regression analysis. During a mean follow-up period of 6.8 years, physical activity was assessed an average of 5.1 times in men and 5.9 times in women. The profiles for the inactive time, LPA (only men), MVPA, step count, PAL, and TEE showed clear curvature, indicating an accelerated rate of change around the age of 70. In contrast, other variables exhibited minimal or no curvature over the age span. The MVPA trajectory was positively associated with alcohol consumption, hand grips, leg power, and trunk flexibility and negatively associated with age, local area, body mass index (BMI), comorbidity score, and heart rate over time. Our results indicated that the physical activity trajectory revealed clear curvature, accelerated rate of change around the age of 70, and determined physical health and fitness and BMI as dynamic factors associated with physical activity changes. These findings may be useful to help support populations to achieve and maintain the recommended level of physical activity.

Sinus Tachycardia: a Multidisciplinary Expert Focused Review

Sinus tachycardia (ST) is ubiquitous, but its presence outside of normal physiological triggers in otherwise healthy individuals remains a commonly encountered phenomenon in medical practice. In many cases, ST can be readily explained by a current medical condition that precipitates an increase in the sinus rate, but ST at rest without physiological triggers may also represent a spectrum of normal. In other cases, ST may not have an easily explainable cause but may represent serious underlying pathology and can be associated with intolerable symptoms. The classification of ST, consideration of possible etiologies, as well as the decisions of when and how to intervene can be difficult. ST can be classified as secondary to a specific, usually treatable, medical condition (eg, pulmonary embolism, anemia, infection, or hyperthyroidism) or be related to several incompletely defined conditions (eg, inappropriate ST, postural tachycardia syndrome, mast cell disorder, or post-COVID syndrome). While cardiologists and cardiac electrophysiologists often evaluate patients with symptoms associated with persistent or paroxysmal ST, an optimal approach remains uncertain. Due to the many possible conditions associated with ST, and an overlap in medical specialists who see these patients, the inclusion of experts in different fields is essential for a more comprehensive understanding. This article is unique in that it was composed by international experts in Neurology, Psychology, Autonomic Medicine, Allergy and Immunology, Exercise Physiology, Pulmonology and Critical Care Medicine, Endocrinology, Cardiology, and Cardiac Electrophysiology in the hope that it will facilitate a more complete understanding and thereby result in the better care of patients with ST.

Acute-phase heart rate trajectories and functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke

The heart rate (HR) trajectory is a dynamic metric that shows how HR changes over time. Previous studies have demonstrated that elevated HR is associated with stroke events. However, little research has been done on the influence of shifting HR throughout the acute period on clinical outcomes. This study aims to investigate the effect of HR trajectories on functional outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). A total of 981 AIS patients were included in the study. A latent mixture model was used to assess HR trends over the first 7 days following disease onset. The patients were divided into four groups based on different HR trajectories: markedly decreasing in 48 h (T1), mildly decreasing in 48 h (T2), sustained moderate in 7 days (T3), and sustained high in 7 days (T4). Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of ≥3 in 3 months. Logistic regression was used to analyze the correlation between different HR trajectories and outcomes. The incidence of poor outcomes was 9.02%, 10.80%, 11.79%, 16.36% in T1 (n = 133), T2 (n = 352), T3 (n = 441), and T4 (n = 55) groups, respectively. Compared with T1 group, T4 group was significantly associated with a higher risk of poor outcome at 3 months (odds ratio = 3.00, 95% confidence interval = 1.06-8.54, p value = .0392). This suggests that in AIS patients, a sustained high HR trajectory is linked to a greater likelihood of poor functional outcome than a markedly decreasing HR trajectory. HR trajectories demonstrate the utility of repeated HR measurements for outcome assessment.

Modelling of longitudinal data to predict cardiovascular disease risk: a methodological review

OBJECTIVE

The identification of methodology for modelling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using longitudinal data and risk factor trajectories.

METHODS

We screened MEDLINE-Ovid from inception until 3 June 2020. MeSH and text search terms covered three areas: data type, modelling type and disease area including search terms such as "longitudinal", "trajector*" and "cardiovasc*" respectively. Studies were filtered to meet the following inclusion criteria: longitudinal individual patient data in adult patients with ≥3 time-points and a CVD or mortality outcome. Studies were screened and analyzed by one author. Any queries were discussed with the other authors. Comparisons were made between the methods identified looking at assumptions, flexibility and software availability.

RESULTS

From the initial 2601 studies returned by the searches 80 studies were included. Four statistical approaches were identified for modelling the longitudinal data: 3 (4%) studies compared time points with simple statistical tests, 40 (50%) used single-stage approaches, such as including single time points or summary measures in survival models, 29 (36%) used two-stage approaches including an estimated longitudinal parameter in survival models, and 8 (10%) used joint models which modelled the longitudinal and survival data together. The proportion of CVD risk prediction models created using longitudinal data using two-stage and joint models increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Single stage models are still heavily utilized by many CVD risk prediction studies for modelling longitudinal data. Future studies should fully utilize available longitudinal data when analyzing CVD risk by employing two-stage and joint approaches which can often better utilize the available data.

Rapid decline of resting heart rate trajectories from childhood to young adulthood is paradoxically associated with increased cardiac mass

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the varied resting heart rate (RHR) trajectory patterns from childhood to young adulthood and their clinical significance. We aim to identify RHR trajectories from childhood to young adulthood, and to determine their relationship with left ventricular mass (LVM) index.

METHODS

RHR was measured up to 15 times over a 21-year period in 759 participants from childhood to young adulthood. LVM was measured using echocardiography and was normalised to body surface area to obtain LVM index in 546 participants.

RESULTS

Using latent class models, three trajectory groups in RHR from childhood to young adulthood were identified, including high-decreasing group (HDG), moderate-decreasing group (MDG), and low-decreasing group (LDG). We found that trajectory of RHR was a significant predictor of LVM index with faster decrease of RHR associated with higher levels of total peripheral resistance (P for trend <0.001) and LVM index (P for trend <0.001). Compared to the LDG, individuals in the HDG showed higher LVM index (β = 6.08, p < 0.001). In addition, the interactions between race and RHR trajectories for LVM index was significant (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our findings show an association between RHR trajectories from childhood to young adulthood with cardiac mass, suggesting that monitoring RHR may help identify subpopulation at high cardiovascular risk.

Effect of heart rate on hospital mortality in critically ill patients may be modified by age: a retrospective observational study from large database

BACKGROUND

Heart rate has been found associated with mortality in critically ill patients. However, whether the association differs between the elderly and non-elderly patients was unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in the United States. Demographic, vital signs, laboratory tests, and interventions were extracted and compared between the elderly and non-elderly patients. The main exposure was heart rate, the proportion of time spent in heart rate (PTS-HR) was calculated. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The multivariable logistic regression model was performed to assess the relationship between PTS-HR and hospital mortality, and interaction between PTS-HR and age categories was explored.

RESULTS

104,276 patients were included, of which 52,378 (50.2%) were elderly patients and 51,898 (49.8%) were non-elderly patients. The median age was 66 (IQR 54-76) years. After adjusting for confounders, PTS-HR < 60 beats per minute (bpm) (OR 0.972, 95% CI [0.945, 0.998], p = 0.031, P_interaction = 0.001) and 60-80 bpm (OR 0.925, 95% CI [0.912, 0.938], p < 0.001, P_interaction = 0.553) were associated with decreased risk of mortality; PTS-HR 80-100 bpm was associated with decreased mortality in the non-elderly patients (OR 0.955, 95% CI [0.941,0.975], p < 0.001) but was associated with increased mortality in the very elderly patients (OR 1.018, 95% CI [1.003,1.029], p = 0.017, P_interaction < 0.001). PTS-HR > 100 bpm (OR 1.093, 95% CI [1.081,1.105], p < 0.001, P_interaction = 0.004) was associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of heart rate on hospital mortality differs between the elderly and non-elderly critically ill patients.

Dynamic change of heart rate in the acute phase and clinical outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dynamic change of heart rate in the acute phase and clinical outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the associations of heart rate trajectories and variability with functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ICH.

METHODS

This prospective study was conducted among 332 patients with acute ICH. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify heart rate trajectories during the first 72 h of hospitalization after ICH onset. Mean and coefficient of variation of heart rate measurements were calculated. The study outcomes included unfavorable functional outcome, ordinal shift of modified Rankin Scale score, and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 3 distinct heart rate trajectory patterns (persistent-high, moderate-stable, and low-stable). During 3-month follow-up, 103 (31.0%) patients had unfavorable functional outcome and 46 (13.9%) patients died. In multivariable-adjusted model, compared with patients in low-stable trajectory, patients in persistent-high trajectory had the highest odds of poor functional outcome (odds ratio 15.06, 95% CI 3.67-61.78). Higher mean and coefficient of variation of heart rate were also associated with increased risk of unfavorable functional outcome (P trend < 0.05), and the corresponding odds ratios (95% CI) comparing two extreme tertiles were 4.69 (2.04-10.75) and 2.43 (1.09-5.39), respectively. Likewise, similar prognostic effects of heart rate dynamic changes on high modified Rankin Scale score and all-cause mortality were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistently high heart rate and higher variability in the acute phase were associated with increased risk of unfavorable functional outcome in patients with acute ICH.

High heart rate amplifies the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with elevated uric acid

AIMS

Whether the association between uric acid (UA) and cardiovascular disease is influenced by some facilitating factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the risk of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) associated with elevated UA was modulated by the level of resting heart rate (HR).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Multivariable Cox analyses were made in 19 128 participants from the multicentre Uric acid Right for heArt Health study. During a median follow-up of 11.2 years, there were 1381 cases of CVM. In multivariable Cox models both UA and HR, either considered as continuous or categorical variables were independent predictors of CVM both improving risk discrimination (P ≤ 0.003) and reclassification (P < 0.0001) over a multivariable model. However, the risk of CVM related to high UA (≥5.5 mg/dL, top tertile) was much lower in the subjects with HR

CONCLUSION

This data suggest that the contribution of UA to determining CVM is modulated by the level of HR supporting the hypothesis that activation of the sympathetic nervous system facilitates the action of UA as a cardiovascular risk factor.

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Key Words

• Cardiovascular
• Heart rate
• Longitudinal study
• Mortality
• Sympathetic activity
• Uric acid

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Affiliation(s)

Paolo Palatini Department of Medicine, Studium Patavinum, University of Padova, Via S. Fris 121, 31029 Vittorio Veneto, Italy
Gianfranco Parati S. Luca Hospital, Istituto Auxologico Italiano & University of Milan-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
Agostino Virdis Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Gianpaolo Reboldi Department of Medical and Surgical Science, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
Stefano Masi Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Alessandro Mengozzi Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
Edoardo Casiglia Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
Valerie Tikhonoff Department of Medicine, University of Padua, Padua, Italy
Arrigo F G Cicero Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Andrea Ungar Department of Geriatric and Intensive Care Medicine, Careggi Hospital and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Giulia Rivasi Department of Geriatric and Intensive Care Medicine, Careggi Hospital and University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Massimo Salvetti Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
Carlo M Barbagallo Biomedical Department of Internal Medicine and Specialistics, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
Michele Bombelli Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Raffaella Dell'Oro Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Berardino Bruno Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Luciano Lippa Italian Society of General, Medicine (SIMG), Avezzano, L'Aquila, Italy
Lanfranco D'Elia Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Naples, Italy
Paolo Verdecchia Hospital S. Maria della Misericordia, Perugia, Italy
Fabio Angeli Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy Department of Medicine and Cardiopulmonary Rehabilitation, Maugeri Care and Research Institutes, IRCCS Tradate, Varese, Italy
Francesca Mallamaci CNR-IFC, Clinical Epidemiology of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, Reggio Cal Unit, Reggio Calabria, Italy
Massimo Cirillo Department of Public Health, "Federico II" University of Naples, Napoli, Italy
Marcello Rattazzi Department of Medicine-DIMED, University of Padova, Medicina, Interna 1°, Ca' Foncello University Hospital, Treviso, Italy
Pietro Cirillo Department of Emergency and Organ Transplantation-Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation Unit, Aldo Moro University of Bari, Bari, Italy
Loreto Gesualdo Department of Emergency and Organ Transplantation-Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation Unit, Aldo Moro University of Bari, Bari, Italy
Alberto Mazza Department of Internal Medicine, Hypertension Unit, General Hospital, Rovigo, Italy
Cristina Giannattasio Cardiology IV, 'A. De Gasperis' Department, Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital, Milano, Italy Health Science Department, Milano-Bicocca University, Milano, Italy
Alessandro Maloberti Cardiology IV, 'A. De Gasperis' Department, Niguarda Ca' Granda Hospital, Milano, Italy Health Science Department, Milano-Bicocca University, Milano, Italy
Massimo Volpe Hypertension Unit, Division of Cardiology, Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Psychology, University of Rome Sapienza, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Rome, Italy IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli (IS), Italy
Giuliano Tocci Hypertension Unit, Division of Cardiology, Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Psychology, University of Rome Sapienza, Sant'Andrea Hospital, Rome, Italy IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli (IS), Italy
Georgios Georgiopoulos First Department of Cardiology, 'Hippokration' Hospital, University of Athens, Medical School, Athens, Greece
Guido Iaccarino Department of Advanced Biomedical Sciences, "Federico II" University of Naples, Napoli, Italy
Pietro Nazzaro Department of Medical Basic Sciences, Neurosciences and Sense Organs, University of Bari Medical School, Bari, Italy
Ferruccio Galletti Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, "Federico II" University of Naples Medical School, Naples, Italy
Claudio Ferri Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Giovambattista Desideri Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Francesca Viazzi Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa and Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
Roberto Pontremoli Department of Internal Medicine, University of Genoa and Policlinico San Martino, Genova, Italy
Maria Lorenza Muiesan Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
Guido Grassi Department of Cardiovascular, Neural and Metabolic Sciences, Clinica Medica, Monza, Italy Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milano-Bicocca, Monza, Italy
Claudio Borghi Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy

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Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for myocardial infarction patients in intensive care units: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram and evaluate the discrimination of the nomogram model in order to improve the prediction of 30-day survival of critically ill myocardial infarction (MI) patients.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database, consisting of critically ill participants between 2001 and 2012 in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2031 adult critically ill patients with MI were enrolled from the MIMIC-III database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME

Thirty-day survival.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors, including age, heart rate, white blood cell count, blood urea nitrogen and bicarbonate, were identified by Cox regression model and used in the nomogram. Good agreement between the prediction and observation was indicated by the calibration curve for 30-day survival. The nomogram exhibited reasonably accurate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.765, 95% CI, 0.716 to 0.814) and calibration (C-index, 0.758, 95% CI, 0.712 to 0.804) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial. Additionally, participants could be classified into two risk groups by the nomogram, and the 30-day survival probability was significantly different between them (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This five-factor nomogram can achieve a reasonable degree of accuracy to predict 30-day survival in critically ill MI patients and might be helpful for risk stratification and decision-making for MI patients.

Heart rate as a predictor of cardiovascular risk

Heart rate is a parameter that is very easy to measure and is widely used both in clinic and during daily life activities. Its value gained more relevance with the evidence, in prospective studies and meta-analysis, of association between elevated heart rate values and diseases and outcomes.The increased knowledge of physiological mechanisms of heart rate control and the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for its dysfunction allows to identify the cut-off value of normalcy providing info for non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments to reduce the cardiovascular risk both in general population and in pathophysiological conditions. This paper overviews the knowledges of the role of resting heart rate as predictor of cardiovascular risk.

Heart rate as cardiovascular risk factor

Heart rate is a parameter that is widely used by the general population as a marker of health. The availability of wearable electronic heart rate monitoring devices and use of specific apps are widely used both at rest and during daily life activities. Resting heart rate values gained more relevance with the evidence of association between elevated heart rate values at rest and diseases and adverse events. Also longitudinal studies demonstrated a clear association between increase in heart rate over time and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The increased knowledge of physiological mechanisms of heart rate control and the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for its dysfunction allows identification of the cutoff value of normalcy. This information can be used to select non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions to reduce the cardiovascular risk both in the general population and in patients with pathophysiological conditions. This review provides an overview of the current knowledge of resting heart rate as cardiovascular risk factor.

Leisure time and occupational physical activity, resting heart rate and mortality in the Arctic region of Norway: The Finnmark Study

Aims

This study examined the association of leisure time physical activity, occupational physical activity, and resting heart rate with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in Sami and non-Sami populations.

Study design

This was a longitudinal, observational population-based study.

Methods

The Finnmark 3 study cohort was examined in 1987–1988 and followed for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality for 26 years. The cohort included 17,697 men and women with a mean age of 47.2 years at baseline. Leisure time physical activity and occupational physical activity were assessed with a validated questionnaire at baseline, whereas cause of death was obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry.

Results

A total of 1983 women and 3147 men died during follow-up. Leisure time physical activity was linearly and inversely associated with all-cause mortality, but not coronary heart disease mortality. Compared to inactive subjects, all-cause mortality was significantly reduced by 16% in the active leisure time physical activity group (hazard ratio 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.76–0.92). Both for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality, we observed a U-shaped relationship with occupational physical activity, as participants in the walking and lifting group had significantly lower mortality than both the mostly sedentary and the heavy manual labour group ( p < 0.05). An increase in resting heart rate by one beat per minute was associated with a 1.1% increase in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.011; 95% confidence interval 1.009–1.013). The associations were similar in Sami and non-Sami subjects.

Conclusion

In this population-based study, leisure time physical activity was inversely associated with all-cause mortality, whereas resting heart rate was positively associated with all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. There was a U-shaped association between occupational physical activity and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality.

Resting heart rate in late adolescence and long term risk of cardiovascular disease in Swedish men

AIM

To investigate the association of resting heart rate (RHR) measured in late adolescence with the long term risk of myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke (IS), heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), cardiovascular- and all-cause death.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We followed a cohort of Swedish men enrolled for conscription in 1968-2005 (n = 1,008,485; mean age = 18.3 years) until December 2014. Outcomes were collected from the national inpatient - (IPR), outpatient - (OPR) and cause of death registries. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the longitudinal association between RHR and outcomes while adjusting for potential confounders. While we found no independent association between RHR and risk of IS or MI when comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of the RHR distribution, but a positive association persisted between RHR and incident HF (Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.39 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.29-1.49]) after adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP). In similarly adjusted models, an inverse association was found for AF while there were weaker associations with death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all causes (adjusted HR = 1.12 [CI = 1.04-1.21] and 1.20 [CI = 1.17-1.24]). After further adjustment for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), the associations persisted for HF (HR = 1.26 [1.17-1.35] for any diagnostic position and HR = 1.43 [1.28-1.60] for HF as a main diagnosis) and for all-cause death (HR 1.09 [1.05-1.12]) but not for CVD death.

CONCLUSION

Adolescent RHR is associated with future risk of HF and death, independently of BP, BMI and CRF, but not with CVD death, MI or IS, suggesting a causal pathway between elevated heart rate and myocardial dysfunction.