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van Daalen KR, Zhang D, Kaptoge S, Paige E, Di Angelantonio E, Pennells L. Risk estimation for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: considerations for appropriate risk prediction model selection. Lancet Glob Health 2024; 12:e1343-e1358. [PMID: 39030064 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(24)00210-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2024] [Revised: 05/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 07/21/2024]
Abstract
Cardiovascular diseases remain the number one cause of death globally. Cardiovascular disease risk scores are an integral tool in primary prevention, being used to identify individuals at the highest risk and guide the assignment of preventive interventions. Available risk scores differ substantially in terms of the population sample data sources used for their derivation and, consequently, in the absolute risks they assign to individuals. Differences in cardiovascular disease epidemiology between the populations contributing to the development of risk scores, and the target populations in which they are applied, can result in overestimation or underestimation of cardiovascular disease risks for individuals, and poorly informed clinical decisions. Given the wide plethora of cardiovascular disease risk scores available, identification of an appropriate risk score for a target population can be challenging. This Review provides an up-to-date overview of guideline-recommended cardiovascular disease risk scores from global, regional, and national contexts, evaluates their comparative characteristics and qualities, and provides guidance on selection of an appropriate risk score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim Robin van Daalen
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Dudan Zhang
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Stephen Kaptoge
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ellie Paige
- Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - Emanuele Di Angelantonio
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; National Institute for Health and Care Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Behaviour, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Health Data Science Research Centre, Human Technopole, Milan, Italy
| | - Lisa Pennells
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
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Szponar J, Niziński P, Dudka J, Kasprzak-Drozd K, Oniszczuk A. Natural Products for Preventing and Managing Anthracycline-Induced Cardiotoxicity: A Comprehensive Review. Cells 2024; 13:1151. [PMID: 38995002 PMCID: PMC11240786 DOI: 10.3390/cells13131151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2024] [Revised: 07/03/2024] [Accepted: 07/04/2024] [Indexed: 07/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Doxorubicin (DOX) is an anthracycline anticancer agent that is highly effective in the treatment of solid tumors. Given the multiplicity of mechanisms involved in doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity, it is difficult to identify a precise molecular target for toxicity. The findings of a literature review suggest that natural products may offer cardioprotective benefits against doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity, both in vitro and in vivo. However, further confirmatory studies are required to substantiate this claim. It is of the utmost importance to direct greater attention towards the intricate signaling networks that are of paramount importance for the survival and dysfunction of cardiomyocytes. Notwithstanding encouraging progress made in preclinical studies of natural products for the prevention of DOX-induced cardiotoxicity, these have not yet been translated for clinical use. One of the most significant obstacles hindering the development of cardioprotective adjuvants based on natural products is the lack of adequate bioavailability in humans. This review presents an overview of current knowledge on doxorubicin DOX-induced cardiotoxicity, with a focus on the potential benefits of natural compounds and herbal preparations in preventing this adverse effect. As literature search engines, the browsers in the Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science databases and the ClinicalTrials.gov register were used.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarosław Szponar
- Clinical Department of Toxicology and Cardiology, Toxicology Clinic, Stefan Wyszyński Regional Specialist Hospital, Medical University of Lublin, 20-718 Lublin, Poland;
| | - Przemysław Niziński
- Department of Pharmacology, Medical University of Lublin, Radziwiłłowska 11 Street, 20-080 Lublin, Poland;
| | - Jarosław Dudka
- Chair and Department of Toxicology, Medical University of Lublin, Jaczewskiego 8b, 20-090 Lublin, Poland;
| | - Kamila Kasprzak-Drozd
- Department of Inorganic Chemistry, Medical University of Lublin, Chodźki 4a, 20-093 Lublin, Poland;
| | - Anna Oniszczuk
- Department of Inorganic Chemistry, Medical University of Lublin, Chodźki 4a, 20-093 Lublin, Poland;
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Oksanen M, Parviainen J, Asseburg C, Hageman S, Rissanen TT, Kivelä A, Taipale K, Visseren F, Martikainen J. Risk-stratified analysis of long-term clinical outcomes and cumulative costs in Finnish patients with recent acute coronary syndrome or coronary revascularization: a 5-year real-world study using electronic health records. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL OPEN 2024; 4:oeae049. [PMID: 38988674 PMCID: PMC11234202 DOI: 10.1093/ehjopen/oeae049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2024] [Revised: 05/27/2024] [Accepted: 06/07/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024]
Abstract
Aims Risk assessment is essential in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. In patients with recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or coronary revascularization, risk prediction tools, like the European Society of Cardiology guideline recommended SMART-REACH risk score, are increasingly used to predict the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events enabling risk-based personalized prevention. However, little is known about the association between risk stratification and the social and healthcare costs at a population level. This study evaluated the associations between baseline SMART-REACH risk scores, long-term recurrent clinical events, cumulative costs, and post-index event LDL-C goal attainment in patients with recent ACS and/or revascularization. Methods and results This retrospective study used electronic health records and was conducted in the North Karelia region of Finland. The study cohort included all patients aged 45-85 admitted to a hospital for ACS or who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass surgery between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2021. Patients were divided into quintiles based on their baseline SMART-REACH risk scores to examine the associations between predicted 5-year scores and selected clinical and economic outcomes. In addition, simple age-based stratification was conducted as a sensitivity analysis. The observed 5-year cumulative incidence of recurrent events ranged from 20% in the lowest to 41% in the highest risk quintile, whereas the corresponding predicted risks ranged from 13% to 51%, and cumulative 5-year mean total costs per patient ranged from 15 827 to 46 182€, respectively. Both monitoring and attainment of low LDL-C values were suboptimal. Conclusion The use of the SMART-REACH quintiles as a population-level risk stratification tool successfully stratified patients into subgroups with different cumulative numbers of recurrent events and cumulative total costs. However, more research is needed to define clinically and economically optimal threshold values for a population-level stratification.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Steven Hageman
- Universitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Tuomas T Rissanen
- Wellbeing Services County of North Karelia, Siun sote, Joensuu, Finland
| | | | - Kristian Taipale
- Wellbeing Services County of North Karelia, Siun sote, Joensuu, Finland
| | - Frank Visseren
- Universitair Medisch Centrum Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Janne Martikainen
- ESiOR Oy, Tulliportinkatu 2, 70100 Kuopio, Finland
- School of Pharmacy, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 1627, 70211 Kuopio, Finland
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Scalia IG, Gheyath B, Tamarappoo BK, Moudgil R, Otton J, Pereyra M, Narayanasamy H, Larsen C, Herrmann J, Arsanjani R, Ayoub C. Chemotherapy Related Cardiotoxicity Evaluation-A Contemporary Review with a Focus on Cardiac Imaging. J Clin Med 2024; 13:3714. [PMID: 38999280 PMCID: PMC11242267 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13133714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2024] [Revised: 06/20/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024] Open
Abstract
The long-term survivorship of patients diagnosed with cancer has improved due to accelerated detection and rapidly evolving cancer treatment strategies. As such, the evaluation and management of cancer therapy related complications has become increasingly important, including cardiovascular complications. These have been captured under the umbrella term "cardiotoxicity" and include left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, valvular abnormalities, pericardial disease, arrhythmia, myocarditis, and vascular complications. These complications add to the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or are risk factors patients with cancer treatment are presenting with. Of note, both pre- and newly developing CVD is of prognostic significance, not only from a cardiovascular perspective but also overall, potentially impacting the level of cancer therapy that is possible. Currently, there are varying recommendations and practices regarding CVD risk assessment and mitigating strategies throughout the cancer continuum. This article provides an overview on this topic, in particular, the role of cardiac imaging in the care of the patient with cancer. Furthermore, it summarizes the current evidence on the spectrum, prevention, and management of chemotherapy-related adverse cardiac effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel G. Scalia
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
| | - Bashaer Gheyath
- Department of Imaging, Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA 90048, USA
| | - Balaji K. Tamarappoo
- Division of Cardiology, Banner University Medical Center, The University of Arizona College of Medicine, Phoenix, AZ 85004, USA
| | - Rohit Moudgil
- Department of Cardiology, Heart and Vascular Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA
| | - James Otton
- Clinical School, St. Vincent’s Hospital, UNSW, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia
| | - Milagros Pereyra
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
| | - Hema Narayanasamy
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
| | - Carolyn Larsen
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
| | - Joerg Herrmann
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
| | - Reza Arsanjani
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
| | - Chadi Ayoub
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, AZ 85054, USA; (I.G.S.)
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Elola J, Fernández-Pérez C, Del Prado N, Bernal JL, Rosillo N, Bas M, Fernández-Ortiz A, Barba R, Carretero-Gómez J, Pérez-Villacastín J. Weekend and holiday admissions for decompensated heart failure and in-hospital mortality. A cumulative effect of "nonworking" days? REVISTA ESPANOLA DE CARDIOLOGIA (ENGLISH ED.) 2024; 77:440-447. [PMID: 37977280 DOI: 10.1016/j.rec.2023.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to analyze whether nonelective admissions in patients with heart failure (HF) on nonworking days (NWD) are associated with higher in-hospital mortality. METHODS We conducted a retrospective (2018-2019) observational study of episodes of nonelective admissions in patients aged 18 years and older discharged with a principal diagnosis of HF in acute general hospitals of the Spanish National Health System. NWD at admission were defined as Fridays after 14:00hours, Saturdays, Sundays, and national and regional holidays. In-hospital mortality was analyzed with logistic regression models. The length of NWD was considered as an independent continuous variable. Propensity score matching was used as a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS We selected 235 281 episodes of nonelective HF admissions. When the NWD periods were included in the in-hospital mortality model, the increases in in-hospital mortality compared with weekday admission were as follows: 1 NWD day (OR, 1.11; 95%CI, 1.07-1.16); 2 days (OR, 1.13; 95%CI, 1.09-1.17); 3 (OR, 1.16; 95%CI, 1.05-1.27); and ≥4 days (OR, 1.20; 95%CI, 1.09-1.32). There was a statistically significant association between a linear increase in NWD and higher risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality (chi-square trend P=.0002). After propensity score matching, patients with HF admitted on NWD had higher in-hospital mortality than those admitted on weekdays (OR, 1.11; average treatment effect, 12.2% vs 11.1%; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS We found an association between admissions for decompensated HF on an NWD and higher in-hospital mortality. The excess mortality is likely not explained by differences in severity. In this study, the "weekend effect" tended to increase as the NWD period became longer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Elola
- Fundación Instituto para la Mejora de la Asistencia Sanitaria, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Cristina Fernández-Pérez
- Fundación Instituto para la Mejora de la Asistencia Sanitaria, Madrid, Spain; Servicio de Medicina Preventiva, Área Sanitaria de Santiago de Compostela y Barbanza, Santiago de Compostela, A Coruña, Spain; Instituto de Investigación de Santiago, Santiago de Compostela, A Coruña, Spain
| | - Náyade Del Prado
- Fundación Instituto para la Mejora de la Asistencia Sanitaria, Madrid, Spain
| | - José Luis Bernal
- Fundación Instituto para la Mejora de la Asistencia Sanitaria, Madrid, Spain; Servicio de Información y control de gestión, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - Nicolás Rosillo
- Fundación Instituto para la Mejora de la Asistencia Sanitaria, Madrid, Spain; Servicio de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - Marian Bas
- Instituto Cardiovascular, Hospital Clínico Universitario San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Raquel Barba
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Julián Pérez-Villacastín
- Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital Clínico Universitario San Carlos, Madrid, Spain. https://twitter.com/@jvillacastin
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Augé-Bailac F, Rosselló X. Value of the Life's Essential 8 score in cardiovascular health and mortality. REVISTA ESPANOLA DE CARDIOLOGIA (ENGLISH ED.) 2024; 77:381-382. [PMID: 38280547 DOI: 10.1016/j.rec.2023.10.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/29/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Ferran Augé-Bailac
- Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Son Espases, Palma, Islas Baleares, Spain
| | - Xavier Rosselló
- Servicio de Cardiología, Hospital Universitario Son Espases, Palma, Islas Baleares, Spain; Institut d'Investigació Sanitària Illes Balears (IdISBa), Palma, Islas Baleares, Spain; Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB), Palma, Islas Baleares, Spain; Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC), Madrid, Spain.
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Landolfo M, Spannella F, Gezzi A, Giulietti F, Sabbatini L, Bari I, Alessandroni R, Di Agostini A, Turri P, Alborino F, Scoppolini Massini L, Sarzani R. Validation of the Novel Web-Based Application HUMTELEMED for a Comprehensive Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk Based on the 2021 European Society of Cardiology Guidelines. J Clin Med 2024; 13:2295. [PMID: 38673568 PMCID: PMC11050958 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13082295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2024] [Revised: 04/04/2024] [Accepted: 04/12/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and aims: SCORE2/SCORE2-OP cardiovascular risk (CVR) charts and online calculators do not apply to patients with comorbidities, target organ damage, or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, for whom the assessment relies on the conventional consultation of the 2021 ESC guidelines (qualitative approach). To simplify the CVR evaluation, we developed an integrated multi-language and free-to-use web application. This study assessed the agreement between the conventional method versus our web app. Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out on 1306 consecutive patients aged 40+ years referred to our center for the diagnosis and management of hypertension and dyslipidemia. Two double-blind operators performed the CVR assessment and classified each patient into low-moderate-, high-, and very-high-risk categories by using the conventional method (SCORE2/SCORE2-OP charts and consultation of the 2021 ESC guidelines) and the web app. The Kappa statistics were used to compare the two methods. Results: The mean age was 60.3 ± 11.9 years, with male prevalence (51.4%). Patients in primary prevention were 77.0%. According to the SCORE2/SCORE2-OP charts and 2021 ESC guideline consultation, the CVR was low-moderate in 18.6% (n° 243), high in 36.8% (n° 480), and very high in 44.6% (n° 583). According to the web app, individual CVR was low-moderate in 19.5% (n° 255), high in 35.4% (n° 462), and very high in 45.1% (n° 589). The two methods strongly agreed (Kappa = 0.960, p < 0.001), with a 97.5% concordance. Conclusions: our application has excellent reliability in a broad "real life" population and may help non-expert users and busy clinicians to assess individual CVR appropriately, representing a free-to-use, simple, time-sparing and widely available alternative to the conventional CVR evaluation using SCORE2/SCORE2-OP and 2021 ESC guideline charts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matteo Landolfo
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Francesco Spannella
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Alessandro Gezzi
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Federico Giulietti
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
| | - Lucia Sabbatini
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Isabella Bari
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Romina Alessandroni
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Angelica Di Agostini
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | - Paolo Turri
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
| | | | | | - Riccardo Sarzani
- Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCCS), Istituto Nazionale di Ricovero e Cura per gli Anziani (INRCA), 60127 Ancona, Italy; (M.L.); (A.G.); (F.G.); (L.S.); (I.B.); (R.A.); (A.D.A.); (P.T.); (R.S.)
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Sciences (DISCLIMO), Centre of Obesity, University “Politecnica delle Marche”, 60127 Ancona, Italy
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Jordan G, Ridder D, Joost S, Vollenweider P, Preisig M, Marques-Vidal P, Guessous I, Vaucher J. Spatial analysis of 10-year predicted risk and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: the CoLaus cohort. Sci Rep 2024; 14:4752. [PMID: 38413661 PMCID: PMC10899582 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54900-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/18/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Whether cardiovascular risk scores geographically aggregate and inform on spatial development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) remains unknown. Our aim is to determine the spatial distribution of 10-year predicted cardiovascular risk and ASCVD, and to compare the overlap of the resulting spatial distributions. Using prospective data from the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus cohort study (2003-2021) we computed SCORE2 in participants free from ASCVD. Geographical distributions of predicted risk and events were determined using the Gi* Getis-Ord autocorrelation statistic. 6203 individuals (54% women, mean age 52.5 ± SD 10.7, ASCVD incidence rate 5.7%) were included. We identified clusters of high versus low predicted risk (4%, 6%, respectively) and ASCVD (5%, 5% respectively) at baseline. They persisted at follow-up. Overlap of SCORE2 and ASCVD clusters was marginal. Body-mass index and alcohol consumption explained most of the predicted risk distribution. For ASCVD, high clusters persisted or were reinforced after multivariate adjustment, while low incidence clusters were reduced, multifactorial determinants. Incidence rate of ASCVD was 2.5% higher (IC 95%, 1.4-3.7) in clusters of higher incidence of ASCVD. To develop up-to-date, geographically targeted prevention strategies, there is a need to study novel geographically risk factors affecting ASCVD and to update commonly used prediction models for a population approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Jordan
- Department of Medicine, Division of Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Rue du Bugnon 46, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - David Ridder
- Department of Primary Care Medicine, Division of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland
- Laboratory for Biological Geochemistry (LGB), Group of Geospatial Molecular Epidemiology (GEOME), Institute of Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
- Geographic Information Research and Analysis in Population Health (GIRAPH), Geneva, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Stephane Joost
- Department of Primary Care Medicine, Division of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland
- Laboratory for Biological Geochemistry (LGB), Group of Geospatial Molecular Epidemiology (GEOME), Institute of Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
- Geographic Information Research and Analysis in Population Health (GIRAPH), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Peter Vollenweider
- Department of Medicine, Division of Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Rue du Bugnon 46, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Martin Preisig
- CEPP, Department of Psychiatry, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Prilly, Switzerland
| | - Pedro Marques-Vidal
- Department of Medicine, Division of Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Rue du Bugnon 46, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Idris Guessous
- Department of Primary Care Medicine, Division of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland
- Laboratory for Biological Geochemistry (LGB), Group of Geospatial Molecular Epidemiology (GEOME), Institute of Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland
- Geographic Information Research and Analysis in Population Health (GIRAPH), Geneva, Switzerland
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Julien Vaucher
- Department of Medicine, Division of Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Rue du Bugnon 46, 1011, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Medicine and Specialties, Service of Internal Medicine, Fribourg Hospital and University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
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Xiang R, Kelemen M, Xu Y, Harris LW, Parkinson H, Inouye M, Lambert SA. Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools. Genome Med 2024; 16:33. [PMID: 38373998 PMCID: PMC10875792 DOI: 10.1186/s13073-024-01304-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2024] [Indexed: 02/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruidong Xiang
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Martin Kelemen
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Yu Xu
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Laura W Harris
- European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK
| | - Helen Parkinson
- European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK
| | - Michael Inouye
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
| | - Samuel A Lambert
- Cambridge Baker Systems Genomics Initiative, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Wellcome Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK
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10
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Luca SA, Bungau RM, Lazar S, Potre O, Timar B. To What Extent Does Cardiovascular Risk Classification of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Differ between European Guidelines from 2023, 2021, and 2019? A Cross-Sectional Study. MEDICINA (KAUNAS, LITHUANIA) 2024; 60:334. [PMID: 38399621 PMCID: PMC10890196 DOI: 10.3390/medicina60020334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2024] [Revised: 02/11/2024] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) is intricately associated with an increased cardiovascular (CV) risk, highlighting the imperative for tailored intervention in the prevention and management of CV diseases. To assess the CV risk and subsequent interventions in patients with diabetes, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) has been consistently developing and updating specific guidelines for risk assessment and patient management since 2019. The 2023 risk classification method has significantly changed, introducing a novel probability-based assessment through the implementation of SCORE2-Diabetes instrument. This marks a shift from the risk factor-based classification employed in the 2019 and 2021 methods, representing an innovative approach in risk assessment for individuals with T2DM. This study aims to evaluate the differences in the CV risk classification among hospitalized patients with T2DM using the three proposed methods within the Romanian population, a European population considered to be at very high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods: in a consecutive-case, population-based study design, 70 patients hospitalized with T2DM from a European population characterized by very high CV risk were assessed for CV risk using the three proposed methods. The differences between these classifications were subsequently analyzed. Results: In the study group, according to 2023 classification, one patient (1.4%) was classified with moderate CV risk, eight (11.4%) with high cardiovascular risk, and sixty-one (87.2%) with very high cardiovascular risk. A total of 36 patients (51.4%) were classified differently compared to 2021 criteria, the differences being statistically significant (p = 0.047), while 13 (18.6%) were different compared to 2019 criteria, the differences being statistically non-significant (p = 0.731). By comparing the 2021 to the 2019 ESC Guidelines recommendations, 40 patients had a one-step decrease in cardiovascular risk category, from very high to high risk. Conclusions: Most patients included in the analysis were classified as very high CV risk (87.2%). Within a European population characterized by very high CV risk, the SCORE2-Diabetes instrument proves to be a valuable tool, contributing to most step-ups in CV risk classes within the 2023 classification. In a very-high-risk demographic, the 2023 algorithm resulted in different classifications in contrast to the 2021 method but similar classifications observed with the 2019 method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Silvia Ana Luca
- Department of Cardiology, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania;
- Centre for Molecular Research in Nephrology and Vascular Diseases, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania; (S.L.); (B.T.)
| | - Raluca Malina Bungau
- Department of Diabetes, “Pius Brinzeu” Emergency Hospital, 300736 Timisoara, Romania;
| | - Sandra Lazar
- Centre for Molecular Research in Nephrology and Vascular Diseases, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania; (S.L.); (B.T.)
- First Department of Internal Medicine, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania
| | - Ovidiu Potre
- First Department of Internal Medicine, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania
- Multidisciplinary Research Centre for Malignant Hematological Diseases (CCMHM), “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania
| | - Bogdan Timar
- Centre for Molecular Research in Nephrology and Vascular Diseases, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania; (S.L.); (B.T.)
- Department of Diabetes, “Pius Brinzeu” Emergency Hospital, 300736 Timisoara, Romania;
- Second Department of Internal Medicine, “Victor Babes” University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 300041 Timisoara, Romania
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11
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You J, Guo Y, Kang JJ, Wang HF, Yang M, Feng JF, Yu JT, Cheng W. Development of machine learning-based models to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study. Stroke Vasc Neurol 2023; 8:475-485. [PMID: 37105576 PMCID: PMC10800279 DOI: 10.1136/svn-2023-002332] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous prediction algorithms for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) were established using risk factors retrieved largely based on empirical clinical knowledge. This study sought to identify predictors among a comprehensive variable space, and then employ machine learning (ML) algorithms to develop a novel CVD risk prediction model. METHODS From a longitudinal population-based cohort of UK Biobank, this study included 473 611 CVD-free participants aged between 37 and 73 years old. We implemented an ML-based data-driven pipeline to identify predictors from 645 candidate variables covering a comprehensive range of health-related factors and assessed multiple ML classifiers to establish a risk prediction model on 10-year incident CVD. The model was validated through a leave-one-center-out cross-validation. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 31 466 participants developed CVD within 10 years after baseline visits. A novel UK Biobank CVD risk prediction (UKCRP) model was established that comprised 10 predictors including age, sex, medication of cholesterol and blood pressure, cholesterol ratio (total/high-density lipoprotein), systolic blood pressure, previous angina or heart disease, number of medications taken, cystatin C, chest pain and pack-years of smoking. Our model obtained satisfied discriminative performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.762±0.010 that outperformed multiple existing clinical models, and it was well-calibrated with a Brier Score of 0.057±0.006. Further, the UKCRP can obtain comparable performance for myocardial infarction (AUC 0.774±0.011) and ischaemic stroke (AUC 0.730±0.020), but inferior performance for haemorrhagic stroke (AUC 0.644±0.026). CONCLUSION ML-based classification models can learn expressive representations from potential high-risked CVD participants who may benefit from earlier clinical decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia You
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yu Guo
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ju-Jiao Kang
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hui-Fu Wang
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ming Yang
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jian-Feng Feng
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience and Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
- Zhangjiang Fudan International Innovation Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Fudan ISTBI-ZJNU Algorithm Centre for Brain-inspired Intelligence, Zhejiang Normal University, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jin-Tai Yu
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Cheng
- Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Key Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience and Brain-Inspired Intelligence, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
- Fudan ISTBI-ZJNU Algorithm Centre for Brain-inspired Intelligence, Zhejiang Normal University, Zhejiang, China
- Shanghai Medical College and Zhongshan Hospital Immunotherapy Technology Transfer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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12
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Burger PM, Dorresteijn JAN, Fiolet ATL, Koudstaal S, Eikelboom JW, Nidorf SM, Thompson PL, Cornel JH, Budgeon CA, Westendorp ICD, Beelen DPW, Martens FMAC, Steg PG, Asselbergs FW, Cramer MJ, Teraa M, Bhatt DL, Visseren FLJ, Mosterd A. Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary artery disease. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2023; 30:1950-1962. [PMID: 37409348 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Revised: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
AIMS Low-dose colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but absolute benefits may vary between individuals. This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute benefits from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine and applied to patients with CAD from the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial and the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) study (n = 10 830). Individual treatment benefits were expressed as 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and MACE-free life-years gained. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus coronary revascularization (MACE+), using a new lifetime model derived in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Colchicine was compared with other ESC guideline-recommended intensified (Step 2) prevention strategies, i.e. LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to 1.4 mmol/L and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to 130 mmHg. The generalizability to other populations was assessed in patients with CAD from REACH North America and Western Europe (n = 25 812). The median 10-year ARR from low-dose colchicine was 4.6% [interquartile range (IQR) 3.6-6.0%] for MACE and 8.6% (IQR 7.6-9.8%) for MACE+. Lifetime benefit was 2.0 (IQR 1.6-2.5) MACE-free years, and 3.4 (IQR 2.6-4.2) MACE+-free life-years gained. For LDL-c and SBP reduction, respectively, the median 10-year ARR for MACE was 3.0% (IQR 1.5-5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0-5.7%), and the lifetime benefit was 1.2 (IQR 0.6-2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0-2.3) MACE-free life-years gained. Similar results were obtained for MACE+ and in American and European patients from REACH. CONCLUSION The absolute benefits of low-dose colchicine vary between individual patients with chronic CAD. They may be expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in a majority of patients already on conventional lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal M Burger
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jannick A N Dorresteijn
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Aernoud T L Fiolet
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Dutch Cardiovascular Research Network (WCN), Moreelsepark 1, 3511 EP Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Stefan Koudstaal
- Dutch Cardiovascular Research Network (WCN), Moreelsepark 1, 3511 EP Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Green Heart Hospital, Gouda, The Netherlands
| | | | - Stefan M Nidorf
- Department of Cardiology, GenesisCare Western Australia, Perth, Australia
- Heart Research Institute of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Peter L Thompson
- Department of Cardiology, GenesisCare Western Australia, Perth, Australia
- Heart Research Institute of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Jan H Cornel
- Dutch Cardiovascular Research Network (WCN), Moreelsepark 1, 3511 EP Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Charley A Budgeon
- School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | | | - Driek P W Beelen
- Department of Cardiology, IJsselland Hospital, Capelle aan den IJssel, The Netherlands
| | - Fabrice M A C Martens
- Dutch Cardiovascular Research Network (WCN), Moreelsepark 1, 3511 EP Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Deventer Hospital, Deventer, The Netherlands
| | - Philippe Gabriel Steg
- Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôpital Bichat, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | - Folkert W Asselbergs
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten J Cramer
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Martin Teraa
- Department of Vascular Surgery, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Deepak L Bhatt
- Mount Sinai Heart, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Health System, New York, USA
| | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Arend Mosterd
- Dutch Cardiovascular Research Network (WCN), Moreelsepark 1, 3511 EP Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Meander Medical Centre, Maatweg 3, 3813 TZ Amersfoort, The Netherlands
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13
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Starnecker F, Reimer LM, Nissen L, Jovanović M, Kapsecker M, Rospleszcz S, von Scheidt M, Krefting J, Krüger N, Perl B, Wiehler J, Sun R, Jonas S, Schunkert H. Guideline-Based Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Delivered by an mHealth App: Development Study. JMIR Cardio 2023; 7:e50813. [PMID: 38064248 PMCID: PMC10746971 DOI: 10.2196/50813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Revised: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 12/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying high-risk individuals is crucial for preventing cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Currently, risk assessment is mostly performed by physicians. Mobile health apps could help decouple the determination of risk from medical resources by allowing unrestricted self-assessment. The respective test results need to be interpretable for laypersons. OBJECTIVE Together with a patient organization, we aimed to design a digital risk calculator that allows people to individually assess and optimize their CVD risk. The risk calculator was integrated into the mobile health app HerzFit, which provides the respective background information. METHODS To cover a broad spectrum of individuals for both primary and secondary prevention, we integrated the respective scores (Framingham 10-year CVD, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 in Older Persons, and Secondary Manifestations Of Arterial Disease) into a single risk calculator that was recalibrated for the German population. In primary prevention, an individual's heart age is estimated, which gives the user an easy-to-understand metric for assessing cardiac health. For secondary prevention, the risk of recurrence was assessed. In addition, a comparison of expected to mean and optimal risk levels was determined. The risk calculator is available free of charge. Data safety is ensured by processing the data locally on the users' smartphones. RESULTS Offering a risk calculator to the general population requires the use of multiple instruments, as each provides only a limited spectrum in terms of age and risk distribution. The integration of 4 internationally recommended scores allows risk calculation in individuals aged 30 to 90 years with and without CVD. Such integration requires recalibration and harmonization to provide consistent and plausible estimates. In the first 14 months after the launch, the HerzFit calculator was downloaded more than 96,000 times, indicating great demand. Public information campaigns proved effective in publicizing the risk calculator and contributed significantly to download numbers. CONCLUSIONS The HerzFit calculator provides CVD risk assessment for the general population. The public demonstrated great demand for such a risk calculator as it was downloaded up to 10,000 times per month, depending on campaigns creating awareness for the instrument.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabian Starnecker
- Department of Cardiology, German Heart Center Munich, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
| | - Lara Marie Reimer
- School for Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Institute for Digital Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Leon Nissen
- Institute for Digital Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Marko Jovanović
- Institute for Digital Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Maximilian Kapsecker
- School for Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Susanne Rospleszcz
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
- Chair of Epidemiology, Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Moritz von Scheidt
- Department of Cardiology, German Heart Center Munich, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
| | - Johannes Krefting
- Department of Cardiology, German Heart Center Munich, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
| | - Nils Krüger
- Department of Cardiology, German Heart Center Munich, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
| | - Benedikt Perl
- Department of Sport and Health Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Jens Wiehler
- BioM Biotech Cluster Development GmbH - BioM, Munich, Germany
| | - Ruoyu Sun
- BioM Biotech Cluster Development GmbH - BioM, Munich, Germany
| | - Stephan Jonas
- Institute for Digital Medicine, University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Heribert Schunkert
- Department of Cardiology, German Heart Center Munich, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Disease (Deutsches Zentrum für Herz-Kreislauf-Forschung eV), Munich, Germany
- Medical Graduate Center, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
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14
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Drosos GC, Konstantonis G, Sfikakis PP, Tektonidou MG. Cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with antiphospholipid syndrome: a cross-sectional performance analysis of nine clinical risk prediction tools. RMD Open 2023; 9:e003601. [PMID: 38016710 PMCID: PMC10685980 DOI: 10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/30/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to assess the performance of cardiovascular risk (CVR) prediction models reported by European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology and European Society of Cardiology recommendations to identify high-atherosclerotic CVR (ASCVR) patients with antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). METHODS Six models predicting the risk of a first cardiovascular disease event (first-CVD) (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE); modified-SCORE; Framingham risk score; Pooled Cohorts Risk Equation; Prospective Cardiovascular Münster calculator; Globorisk), three risk prediction models for patients with a history of prior arterial events (recurrent-CVD) (adjusted Global APS Score (aGAPSS); aGAPSSCVD; Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART)) and carotid/femoral artery vascular ultrasound (VUS) were used to assess ASCVR in 121 APS patients (mean age: 45.8±11.8 years; women: 68.6%). We cross-sectionally examined the calibration, discrimination and classification accuracy of all prediction models to identify high ASCVR due to VUS-detected atherosclerotic plaques, and risk reclassification of patients classified as non high-risk according to first-CVD/recurrent-CVD tools to actual high risk based on VUS. RESULTS Spiegelhalter's z-test p values 0.47-0.57, area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUROC) 0.56-0.75 and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) 0.01-0.35 indicated moderate calibration, poor-to-acceptable discrimination and negligible-to-moderate classification accuracy, respectively, for all risk models. Among recurrent-CVD tools, SMART and aGAPSSCVD (for non-triple antiphospholipid antibody-positive patients) performed better (z/AUROC/MCC: 0.47/0.64/0.29 and 0.52/0.69/0.29, respectively) than aGAPSS. VUS reclassified 34.2%-47.9% and 40.5%-52.6% of patients classified as non-high-ASCVR by first-CVD and recurrent-CVD prediction models, respectively. In patients aged 40-54 years, >40% VUS-guided reclassification was observed for first-CVD risk tools and >50% for recurrent-CVD prediction models. CONCLUSION Clinical CVR prediction tools underestimate actual high ASCVR in APS. VUS may help to improve CVR assessment and optimal risk factor management.
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Affiliation(s)
- George C Drosos
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
| | - George Konstantonis
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
| | - Petros P Sfikakis
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
- Rheumatology Unit, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine and Joint Academic Rheumatology Program, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
| | - Maria G Tektonidou
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
- Rheumatology Unit, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine and Joint Academic Rheumatology Program, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
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15
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Mohammadnia N, Opstal TSJ, El Messaoudi S, Bax WA, Cornel JH. An Update on Inflammation in Atherosclerosis: How to Effectively Treat Residual Risk. Clin Ther 2023; 45:1055-1059. [PMID: 37716836 DOI: 10.1016/j.clinthera.2023.08.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2023] [Revised: 08/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/21/2023] [Indexed: 09/18/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE This study reviewed the contribution of inflammation to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which has gained widespread recognition in recent years. METHODS This critical review evaluated how recent publications and ongoing clinical trials in atherosclerotic inflammation will affect clinical care. FINDINGS Key trials, including CANTOS (Canakinumab Anti-Inflammatory Thrombosis Outcomes Study) with canakinumab (interleukin-1β inhibition), and COLCOT (Colchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial) and LoDoCo2 (Low Dose Colchicine 2) with colchicine, have shown that suppressing inflammation can improve outcomes in ASCVD. Cholesterol crystals play an important role in activating the NOD-, LRR-, and pyrin domain-containing protein 3 inflammasome and subsequent cytokine cascade. Inflammation contributes to significant residual risk after optimal lipid-lowering therapy. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein is a recognized biomarker of residual risk, and newer biomarkers such as the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio may add additional information. The role of lipoprotein(a) as a proinflammatory agent or possible inflammatory biomarker is under investigation. The contribution of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential and trained immunity are in the early stages of investigation. Ongoing clinical trials of suppressing inflammation with NOD-, LRR-, and pyrin domain-containing protein 3 inflammasome inhibition (colchicine) and alternative approaches with downstream interleukin-6 ligand inhibition (ziltivekimab) will expand the evidence base for the use of anti-inflammatory agents in ASCVD. IMPLICATIONS Based on current evidence and ongoing clinical trials, targeting inflammation alongside optimal lipid lowering is likely to be central to the future treatment of ASCVD. (Clin Ther. 2023;45:XXX-XXX) © 2023 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Mohammadnia
- Department of Cardiology, Radboudumc, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - T S J Opstal
- Department of Cardiology, Radboudumc, Nijmegen, the Netherlands; Department of Cardiology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, the Netherlands
| | - S El Messaoudi
- Department of Cardiology, Radboudumc, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - W A Bax
- Department of Internal Medicine, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, the Netherlands
| | - J H Cornel
- Department of Cardiology, Radboudumc, Nijmegen, the Netherlands; Department of Cardiology, Northwest Clinics, Alkmaar, the Netherlands; Dutch Network for Cardiovascular Research (WCN), Utrecht, the Netherlands.
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16
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Burger PM, Savarese G, Tromp J, Adamson C, Jhund PS, Benson L, Hage C, Tay WT, Solomon SD, Packer M, Rossello X, McEvoy JW, De Bacquer D, Timmis A, Vardas P, Graham IM, Di Angelantonio E, Visseren FLJ, McMurray JJV, Lam CSP, Lund LH, Koudstaal S, Dorresteijn JAN, Mosterd A. Personalized lifetime prediction of survival and treatment benefit in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: The LIFE-HF model. Eur J Heart Fail 2023; 25:1962-1975. [PMID: 37691140 DOI: 10.1002/ejhf.3028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Although trials have proven the group-level effectiveness of various therapies for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective for Heart Failure (LIFE-HF) model for the prediction of individual (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in patients with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Cox proportional hazards functions with age as the time scale were developed in the PARADIGM-HF and ATMOSPHERE trials (n = 15 415). Outcomes were cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death, and non-cardiovascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, New York Heart Association class, prior HF hospitalization, diabetes mellitus, extracardiac vascular disease, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and glomerular filtration rate. The functions were combined in life-tables to predict individual overall and HF hospitalization-free survival. External validation was performed in the SwedeHF registry, ASIAN-HF registry, and DAPA-HF trial (n = 51 286). Calibration of 2- to 10-year risk was adequate, and c-statistics were 0.65-0.74. An interactive tool was developed combining the model with hazard ratios from trials to allow estimation of an individual's (lifetime) risk and treatment benefit in clinical practice. Applying the tool to the development cohort, combined treatment with a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor was estimated to afford a median of 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.7-3.7) and 3.7 (IQR 2.4-5.5) additional years of overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, respectively. CONCLUSION The LIFE-HF model enables estimation of lifelong overall and HF hospitalization-free survival, and (lifetime) treatment benefit for individual patients with HFrEF. It could serve as a tool to improve the management of HFrEF by facilitating personalized medicine and shared decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pascal M Burger
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | - Jasper Tromp
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- National University Health System Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Carly Adamson
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Pardeep S Jhund
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lina Benson
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Camilla Hage
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Wan Ting Tay
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Scott D Solomon
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Milton Packer
- Baylor Heart and Vascular Institute, Baylor University Medical Centre, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Xavier Rossello
- Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares, Madrid, Spain
| | - John W McEvoy
- National Institute for Prevention and Cardiovascular Health, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Dirk De Bacquer
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Adam Timmis
- William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | | | - Ian M Graham
- School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin, College Green, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - John J V McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Carolyn S P Lam
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Duke-National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lars H Lund
- Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Jannick A N Dorresteijn
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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17
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Atehortúa A, Gkontra P, Camacho M, Diaz O, Bulgheroni M, Simonetti V, Chadeau-Hyam M, Felix JF, Sebert S, Lekadir K. Cardiometabolic risk estimation using exposome data and machine learning. Int J Med Inform 2023; 179:105209. [PMID: 37729839 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The human exposome encompasses all exposures that individuals encounter throughout their lifetime. It is now widely acknowledged that health outcomes are influenced not only by genetic factors but also by the interactions between these factors and various exposures. Consequently, the exposome has emerged as a significant contributor to the overall risk of developing major diseases, such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. Therefore, personalized early risk assessment based on exposome attributes might be a promising tool for identifying high-risk individuals and improving disease prevention. OBJECTIVE Develop and evaluate a novel and fair machine learning (ML) model for CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk prediction based on a set of readily available exposome factors. We evaluated our model using internal and external validation groups from a multi-center cohort. To be considered fair, the model was required to demonstrate consistent performance across different sub-groups of the cohort. METHODS From the UK Biobank, we identified 5,348 and 1,534 participants who within 13 years from the baseline visit were diagnosed with CVD and T2D, respectively. An equal number of participants who did not develop these pathologies were randomly selected as the control group. 109 readily available exposure variables from six different categories (physical measures, environmental, lifestyle, mental health events, sociodemographics, and early-life factors) from the participant's baseline visit were considered. We adopted the XGBoost ensemble model to predict individuals at risk of developing the diseases. The model's performance was compared to that of an integrative ML model which is based on a set of biological, clinical, physical, and sociodemographic variables, and, additionally for CVD, to the Framingham risk score. Moreover, we assessed the proposed model for potential bias related to sex, ethnicity, and age. Lastly, we interpreted the model's results using SHAP, a state-of-the-art explainability method. RESULTS The proposed ML model presents a comparable performance to the integrative ML model despite using solely exposome information, achieving a ROC-AUC of 0.78±0.01 and 0.77±0.01 for CVD and T2D, respectively. Additionally, for CVD risk prediction, the exposome-based model presents an improved performance over the traditional Framingham risk score. No bias in terms of key sensitive variables was identified. CONCLUSIONS We identified exposome factors that play an important role in identifying patients at risk of CVD and T2D, such as naps during the day, age completed full-time education, past tobacco smoking, frequency of tiredness/unenthusiasm, and current work status. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of exposome-based machine learning as a fair CVD and T2D risk assessment tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- Angélica Atehortúa
- BCN-AIM laboratory, Facultat de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Polyxeni Gkontra
- BCN-AIM laboratory, Facultat de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marina Camacho
- BCN-AIM laboratory, Facultat de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Oliver Diaz
- BCN-AIM laboratory, Facultat de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | | | - Marc Chadeau-Hyam
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Janine F Felix
- The Generation R Study Group, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Pediatrics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Sylvain Sebert
- Research Unit of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Karim Lekadir
- BCN-AIM laboratory, Facultat de Matemàtiques i Informàtica, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
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18
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Patel KV, Budoff MJ, Valero-Elizondo J, Lahan S, Ali SS, Taha MB, Blaha MJ, Blankstein R, Shapiro MD, Pandey A, Arias L, Feldman T, Cury RC, Cainzos-Achirica M, Shah SH, Ziffer JA, Fialkow J, Nasir K. Coronary Atherosclerosis Across the Glycemic Spectrum Among Asymptomatic Adults: The Miami Heart Study at Baptist Health South Florida. Circ Cardiovasc Imaging 2023; 16:e015314. [PMID: 37772409 PMCID: PMC10695004 DOI: 10.1161/circimaging.123.015314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The contemporary burden and characteristics of coronary atherosclerosis, assessed using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), is unknown among asymptomatic adults with diabetes and prediabetes in the United States. The pooled cohort equations and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score stratify atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, but their association with CCTA findings across glycemic categories is not well established. METHODS Asymptomatic adults without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease enrolled in the Miami Heart Study were included. Participants underwent CAC and CCTA testing and were classified into glycemic categories. Prevalence of coronary atherosclerosis (any plaque, noncalcified plaque, plaque with ≥1 high-risk feature, maximal stenosis ≥50%) assessed by CCTA was described across glycemic categories and further stratified by pooled cohort equations-estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk and CAC score. Adjusted logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between glycemic categories and coronary outcomes. RESULTS Among 2352 participants (49.5% women), the prevalence of euglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes was 63%, 30%, and 7%, respectively. Coronary plaque was more commonly present across worsening glycemic categories (euglycemia, 43%; prediabetes, 58%; diabetes, 69%), and similar pattern was observed for other coronary outcomes. In adjusted analyses, compared with euglycemia, prediabetes and diabetes were each associated with higher odds of any coronary plaque (OR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.05-1.60] and 1.75 [1.17-2.61], respectively), noncalcified plaque (OR, 1.47 [1.19-1.81] and 1.99 [1.38-2.87], respectively), and plaque with ≥1 high-risk feature (OR, 1.65 [1.14-2.39] and 2.53 [1.48-4.33], respectively). Diabetes was associated with stenosis ≥50% (OR, 3.01 [1.79-5.08]; reference=euglycemia). Among participants with diabetes and estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk <5%, 46% had coronary plaque and 10% had stenosis ≥50%. Among participants with diabetes and CAC=0, 30% had coronary plaque and 3% had stenosis ≥50%. CONCLUSIONS Among asymptomatic adults, worse glycemic status is associated with higher prevalence and extent of coronary atherosclerosis, high-risk plaque, and stenosis. In diabetes, CAC was more closely associated with CCTA findings and informative in a larger population than the pooled cohort equations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kershaw V Patel
- Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, TX (K.V.P., J.V.-E., S.L., M.B.T., K.N.)
| | - Matthew J Budoff
- Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.)
- David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles (M.J.B.)
| | - Javier Valero-Elizondo
- Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, TX (K.V.P., J.V.-E., S.L., M.B.T., K.N.)
- Center for Outcomes Research, Houston Methodist (J.V.-E., K.N.)
| | - Shubham Lahan
- Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, TX (K.V.P., J.V.-E., S.L., M.B.T., K.N.)
| | - Shozab S Ali
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
- Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Florida International University, Miami (S.S.A., T.F., R.C.C.)
| | - Mohamad B Taha
- Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, TX (K.V.P., J.V.-E., S.L., M.B.T., K.N.)
| | - Michael J Blaha
- Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore (M.J.B., M.C.-A., K.N.)
| | - Ron Blankstein
- Brigham and Women's Hospital Heart and Vascular Center, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (R.B.)
| | - Michael D Shapiro
- Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (M.D.S.)
| | - Ambarish Pandey
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas (A.P.)
| | - Lara Arias
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
| | - Theodore Feldman
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
- Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Florida International University, Miami (S.S.A., T.F., R.C.C.)
| | - Ricardo C Cury
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
- Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Florida International University, Miami (S.S.A., T.F., R.C.C.)
| | - Miguel Cainzos-Achirica
- Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore (M.J.B., M.C.-A., K.N.)
- Department of Cardiology, Hospital del Mar and Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain (M.C.-A.)
| | - Svati H Shah
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC (S.H.S.)
| | - Jack A Ziffer
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
| | - Jonathan Fialkow
- Miami Cardiac and Vascular Institute, Baptist Health South Florida (S.S.A., L.A., T.F., R.C.C., J.A.Z., J.F.)
| | - Khurram Nasir
- Division of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, TX (K.V.P., J.V.-E., S.L., M.B.T., K.N.)
- Center for Outcomes Research, Houston Methodist (J.V.-E., K.N.)
- Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore (M.J.B., M.C.-A., K.N.)
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19
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Orlova IA, Sorokin ED, Pavlova ZS, Plisyuk AG, Kamalov AA. Linking Cardiovascular Risk With Estradiol Level in Men. KARDIOLOGIIA 2023; 63:14-19. [PMID: 37815135 DOI: 10.18087/cardio.2023.9.n2450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/17/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Aim To study the relationship between the cardiovascular risk and the level of estradiol in men of young and middle age. The main group included 71 patients with newly diagnosed hyperestrogenia (HE) (serum estradiol >41.2 pg/ ml). Using pseudorandomization, 68 men with normal estradiol level and age- and body weight index (BWI)-matched with the main group were included into the control group. Anthropometric data, bioimpedance variables, blood pressure (BP), and concentrations of estradiol, testosterone, glucose, and total cholesterol were analyzed in both groups.Results Patients of the main and control groups did not differ in age, BWI, and smoking status. Testosterone concentration was 10.18 nmol/l in the HE group and 12.18 nmol /l in the control group (p=0.006). Systolic BP was 142.0 mm Hg in the HE group and 135.2 mm Hg in the control group (p=0.011); diastolic BP was 90.3 mm Hg in the HE group and 86.2 mm Hg in the control group (p=0.008). Total cholesterol was 5.87 mmol/l in the HE group and 5.33 mmol/l in the control group (p=0.023). Blood glucose did not differ between the groups. The presence of HE in men 2.11 times (р=0.038) increased the probability of arterial hypertension. The intergroup difference by the SCORE scale did not reach statistical significance (р=0.172). BWI, waist and hip circumferences, and bioimpedance body composition parameters did not differ between the groups.Conclusion In the studied cohort of young and middle-aged men, HE was an independent predictor for the presence of arterial hypertension. There were no significant intergroup differences in the total risk of cardiovascular diseases calculated with the SCORE scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ia A Orlova
- Medical Research and Educational Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow; School of Fundamental Medicine, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
| | - E D Sorokin
- School of Fundamental Medicine, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
| | - Z Sh Pavlova
- Medical Research and Educational Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
| | - A G Plisyuk
- Medical Research and Educational Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow; School of Fundamental Medicine, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
| | - A A Kamalov
- Medical Research and Educational Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow; School of Fundamental Medicine, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
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Gourdy P, Schiele F, Halimi JM, Kownator S, Hadjadj S, Valensi P. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk stratification and management in type 2 diabetes: review of recent evidence-based guidelines. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1227769. [PMID: 37829695 PMCID: PMC10566622 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1227769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Accordingly, several scientific societies have released clinical practice guidelines to assist health professionals in ASCVD risk management in patients with T2DM. However, some recommendations differ from each other, contributing to uncertainty about the optimal clinical management of patients with T2DM and established ASCVD or at high risk for ASCVD. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discuss recent evidence-based guidelines on ASCVD risk stratification and prevention in patients with T2DM, in terms of disparities and similarities. To close the gap between different guidelines, a multidisciplinary approach involving general practitioners, endocrinologists, and cardiologists may enhance the coordination of diagnosis, therapy, and long-term follow-up of ASCVD in patients with T2DM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Gourdy
- Diabetology Department, Toulouse University Hospital, Toulouse, France
- Institute of Metabolic and Cardiovascular Diseases, UMR1297 INSERM/UT3, Toulouse University, Toulouse, France
| | - François Schiele
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Besancon, Besancon, France
- EA3920, University of Franche-Comté, Besancon, France
| | - Jean-Michel Halimi
- Néphrologie-Immunologie Clinique, Hôpital Bretonneau, CHU Tours, Tours, France
- EA4245, University of Tours, Tours, France
- Investigation Network Initiative Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists (INI-CRCT), Nancy, France
| | | | - Samy Hadjadj
- Nantes Université, CHU Nantes, CNRS, INSERM, l’Institut du Thorax, Nantes, France
| | - Paul Valensi
- Unit of Endocrinology-Diabetology-Nutrition, AP-HP, Jean Verdier Hospital, Paris 13 University, Sorbonne Paris Cité, CRNH-IdF, CINFO, Bondy, France
- Polyclinique D'Aubervilliers, Aubervilliers, France
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Rehm M, Jaensch A, Schöttker B, Mons U, Hahmann H, Koenig W, Brenner H, Rothenbacher D. Medical care and biomarker-based assessment of mortality in two cohorts of patients with chronic coronary syndrome 10 years apart. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2023; 23:428. [PMID: 37644408 PMCID: PMC10466796 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-023-03469-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aimed to describe the characteristics and mortality of two cohorts of patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) recruited with identical study designs in the same rehabilitation clinics but approximately 10 years apart. METHODS The KAROLA cohorts included patients with CCS participating in an inpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme in Germany (KAROLA-I: years 1999/2000, KAROLA-II: 2009-2011). Blood samples and information on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, and medical treatment were collected at baseline, at the end of rehabilitation, and after one year of follow-up. A biomarker-based risk model (ABC-CHD model) and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV mortality risk. RESULTS We included 1130 patients from KAROLA-I (mean age 58.7 years, 84.4% men) and 860 from KAROLA-II (mean age 60.4 years, 83.4% men). Patients in the KAROLA-I cohort had significantly higher concentrations of CV biomarkers and fewer patients were taking CV medications, except for statins. The biomarker-based ABC-CHD model provided a higher estimate of CV death risk for patients in the KAROLA-I cohort (median 3-year risk, 3.8%) than for patients in the KAROLA-II cohort (median 3-year risk, 2.7%, p-value for difference < 0.001). After 10 years of follow-up, 91 (8.1%) patients in KAROLA-I and 45 (5.2%) in KAROLA-II had died from a CV event. CONCLUSIONS Advances in disease management over the past 20 years may have led to modest improvements in pharmacological treatment during cardiac rehabilitation and long-term outpatient care for patients with CCS. However, modifiable risk factors such as obesity have increased in the more recent cohort and should be targeted to further improve the prognosis of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Rehm
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
| | - Andrea Jaensch
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
| | - Ben Schöttker
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ute Mons
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Cardiology, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Harry Hahmann
- Klinik Schwabenland, Isny-Neutrauchburg, Isny, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Koenig
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
- Deutsches Herzzentrum München, Technische Universität München, Munich, Germany
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), partner site Munich Heart Alliance, Munich, Germany
| | - Hermann Brenner
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumour Diseases (NCT), Heidelberg, Germany
- German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Dietrich Rothenbacher
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.
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Hammoud A, Chen H, Ivanov A, Yeboah J, Nasir K, Cainzos-Achirica M, Bertoni A, Khan SU, Blaha M, Herrington D, Shapiro MD. Implications of Social Disadvantage Score in Cardiovascular Outcomes and Risk Assessment: Findings From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2023; 16:e009304. [PMID: 37403692 PMCID: PMC10524792 DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.122.009304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Social determinants of health contribute to disparate cardiovascular outcomes, yet they have not been operationalized into the current paradigm of cardiovascular risk assessment. METHODS Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, which includes participants from 6 US field centers, were used to create an index of baseline Social Disadvantage Score (SDS) to explore its association with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and all-cause mortality and impact on ASCVD risk prediction. SDS, which ranges from 0 to 4, was calculated by tallying the following social factors: (1) household income less than the federal poverty level; (2) educational attainment less than a high school diploma; (3) single-living status; and (4) experience of lifetime discrimination. Cox models were used to examine the association between SDS and each outcome with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Changes in the discrimination and reclassification of ASCVD risk by incorporating SDS into the pooled cohort equations were examined. RESULTS A total of 6434 participants (mean age, 61.9±10.2 years; female 52.8%; non-white 60.9%) had available SDS 1733 (26.9%) with SDS 0; 2614 (40.6%) with SDS 1; 1515 (23.5%) with SDS 2; and 572 (8.9%) with SDS ≥3. In total, 775 incident ASCVD events and 1573 deaths were observed over a median follow-up of 17.0 years. Increasing SDS was significantly associated with incident ASCVD and all-cause mortality after adjusting for traditional risk factors (ASCVD: per unit increase in SDS hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.07-1.24]; mortality: per unit increase in SDS hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.08-1.19]). Adding SDS to pooled cohort equations components in a Cox model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction did not significantly improve discrimination (P=0.208) or reclassification (P=0.112). CONCLUSIONS Although SDS is independently associated with incident ASCVD and all-cause mortality, it does not improve 10-year ASCVD risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aziz Hammoud
- Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Haiying Chen
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Alexander Ivanov
- Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Joseph Yeboah
- Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Khurram Nasir
- Department of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, Houston, TX
| | - Miguel Cainzos-Achirica
- Department of Cardiovascular Prevention and Wellness, Department of Cardiology, Houston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular Center, Houston, TX
| | - Alain Bertoni
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Safi U. Khan
- Section of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV
| | - Michael Blaha
- Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Baltimore, MD
| | - David Herrington
- Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
| | - Michael D. Shapiro
- Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
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Castelijns MC, Hageman SHJ, Teraa M, van der Meer MG, Westerink J, Costa F, Ten Berg JM, Visseren FLJ. External validation of bleeding risk models for the prediction of long-term bleeding risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease. Am Heart J 2023; 260:72-81. [PMID: 36841319 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2023.02.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/18/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The long-term predictive performance of existing bleeding risk models in patients with various manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not well known. This study aims to assess and compare the performance of relevant existing bleeding risk models in estimating the long-term risk of major bleeding in a cohort of patients with established CVD. METHODS Seven existing bleeding risk models (PRECISE-DAPT, DAPT, Ducrocq et al, de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, Intracranial B2LEED3S and HAS-BLED) were identified and externally validated in 7,249 patients with established CVD included in the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-second manifestations of arterial disease study. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration, both at 10 years and the original prediction horizon of the models. Major bleeding was defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 8.4 years (interquartile range 4.5-12.5), a total of 233 (3.2%) major bleeding events occurred. C-statistics for discrimination at 10 years ranged from 0.53 (95%CI 0.49-0.57) to 0.64 (95%CI 0.60-0.68). Calibration plots after recalibration to 10 years showed best agreement between predicted and observed bleeding risk for De Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. CONCLUSIONS The performance of existing bleeding risk models to predict long-term bleeding in patients with CVD varied. Discrimination and calibration were best for the models of de Vries et al, S2TOP-BLEED, DAPT and PRECISE-DAPT. Of these, recalibrated models requiring the least predictors may be preferred for use to personalize prevention with antithrombotic therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria C Castelijns
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Steven H J Hageman
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Martin Teraa
- Department of Vascular Surgery, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Manon G van der Meer
- Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Westerink
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, Isala Clinics Zwolle, Zwolle, The Netherlands
| | - Francesco Costa
- Department of Cardiology, G. Martino University Hospital Messina, Messina, Italy
| | - Jurriën M Ten Berg
- Department of Cardiology and Platelet Function Research, St. Antonius Hospital Nieuwegein, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands; Cardiovascular Research Institute Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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Xiong S, Luo Y, Chen Q, Chen Y, Su H, Long Y, Chen X, Yang S, Qi L, Huang W, Hou J, Liu H, Cai L. Adjustment of the GRACE score by the stress hyperglycemia ratio improves the prediction of long-term major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A multicenter retrospective study. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2023; 198:110601. [PMID: 36871875 DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2023.110601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Revised: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2023]
Abstract
AIMS The predictive value of the stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) for long-term prognosis in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is inconsistent. Whether the SHR provides additional prognostic value in addition to the GRACE score in ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains unknown. METHODS A development-validation method was adopted to develop an algorithm to adjust the GRACE score using the SHR in ACS patients undergoing PCI from 11 hospitals. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 31.33 months, the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs), defined as a composite of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction, was more frequent in the patients with a higher level of SHR. The SHR independently predicted long-term MACEs (hazard ratio 3.3479; 95% CI 1.4103-7.9475; P = 0.0062). Adjustment of the GRACE risk by addition of the SHR increased the C-statistic from 0.706 (95% CI: 0.599-0.813) to 0.727 (95% CI: 0.616-0.837) (P < 0.01), with a continuous net reclassification improvement of 30.5% and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.042 (P < 0.01) in the derivation cohort; and addition of the SHR showed superior discrimination and good calibration in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS The SHR is an independent predictor of long-term MACEs in ACS patients undergoing PCI and markedly improves the performance of the GRACE score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiqiang Xiong
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Yan Luo
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Qiang Chen
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Yingzhong Chen
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Hong Su
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Yu Long
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Xu Chen
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Siqi Yang
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Lingyao Qi
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Wenchao Huang
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China
| | - Jun Hou
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China.
| | - Hanxiong Liu
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China.
| | - Lin Cai
- From Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Jiaotong University, the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu, Chengdu Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Chengdu 610014, Sichuan, China.
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Associations of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition with the 10-year risk of atrial fibrillation: observations from a large prospective study of 348,904 participants. BMC Med 2023; 21:88. [PMID: 36882748 PMCID: PMC9993634 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02798-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the effects of risk factor burden and genetic predisposition on the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is important to improve public health initiatives. However, the 10-year risk of AF considering risk factor burden and genetic predisposition is unknown. METHODS A total of 348,904 genetically unrelated participants without AF at baseline from the UK were categorized into three groups: index ages 45 years (n = 84,206), 55 years (n=117,520), and 65 years (n=147,178). Optimal, borderline, or elevated risk factor burden was determined by body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and history of myocardial infarction or heart failure. Genetic predisposition was estimated using the polygenic risk score (PRS), constructed using 165 predefined genetic risk variants. The combined effects of risk factor burden and PRS on the risk of incident AF in 10 years were estimated for each index age. Fine and Gray models were developed to predict the 10-year risk of AF. RESULTS The overall 10-year risk of AF was 0.67% (95% CI: 0.61-0.73%) for index age 45 years, 2.05% (95% CI: 1.96-2.13%) for index age 55 years, and 6.34% (95% CI: 6.21-6.46%) for index age 65 years, respectively. An optimal risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset regardless of genetic predisposition and sex (P < 0.001). Significant synergistic interactions were observed for risk factor burden with PRS at each index age (P < 0.05). Participants with an elevated risk factor burden and high PRS had the highest 10-year risk of AF in reference to those who had both an optimal risk factor burden and a low PRS. At younger ages, optimal risk burden and high PRS might also lead to later onset of AF, compared to the joint effect of elevated risk burden and low/intermediate PRS. CONCLUSIONS Risk factor burden together with a genetic predisposition is associated with the 10-year risk of AF. Our results may be helpful in selecting high-risk individuals for primary prevention of AF and facilitating subsequent health interventions.
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26
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Drosos GC, Konstantonis G, Sfikakis PP, Tektonidou MG. Lipid management in systemic lupus erythematosus according to risk classifiers suggested by the European Society of Cardiology and disease-related risk factors reported by the EULAR recommendations. RMD Open 2023; 9:rmdopen-2022-002767. [PMID: 36759009 PMCID: PMC9923358 DOI: 10.1136/rmdopen-2022-002767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2022] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology recommended that lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) should follow general population guidelines. We examined the eligibility for LLT in SLE according to Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), with and without the addition of vascular ultrasound (VUS) and disease-related features. METHODS 210 patients with SLE without prior cardiovascular events, diabetes or antiphospholipid syndrome underwent cardiovascular risk assessment with SCORE. LLT eligibility was evaluated in low-risk and moderate-risk patients following European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines. Atherosclerotic plaques on carotid ultrasound (cUS)) and carotid and femoral ultrasound (cfUS), prolonged disease duration (PDD, ≥10 years), failure to achieve lupus low disease activity state (LLDASno), cumulative glucocorticoid 'cardiovascular harm' dose (GCCVH, optimal cut-off to predict ultrasound-detected plaques) and antiphospholipid antibody positivity (aPLpos) were tested as SCORE risk enhancers for classification ability (phi coefficient) and agreement (Cohen's kappa) using SCORE plus cfUS as a reference modality for LLT eligibility. RESULTS Plaques were detected in 9.9% of low-risk cases and 54.6% of moderate-risk cases. SCORE alone would indicate 0% of low-risk patients and 3% of moderate-risk patients for LLT eligibility. According to SCORE+cfUS, 9.9% of low-risk patients and 57.6% of moderate-risk patients, respectively, would be eligible for LLT based on ESC guidelines. Ιn low-risk/moderate-risk patients, phi values for SCORE+PDD, GCCVH (cut-off ≥11 g), LLDASno and aPLpos in antiplatelet-naïve antiphospholipid antibody-positive (aPLpos/APT-) cases were 0.06/0.13, 0.23/0.20, 0.07/0.16 and 0.06/0.33, respectively. Agreement for LLT eligibility to SCORE+cfUS was better for SCORE+PDD in moderate-risk patients and for SCORE+cUS in both groups of patients. SCORE+GCCVH and SCORE+aPLpos showed at least fair agreement (kappa ≥0.20) to SCORE+cfUS in low-risk or moderate-risk and in aPLpos/APT- moderate-risk patients, respectively. CONCLUSION Disease-related and VUS features, in addition to SCORE, may help to improve LLT decision making in SLE. GCCVH and aPLpos improve LLT eligibility similarly and to a greater degree than PDD or LLDASno.
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Affiliation(s)
- George C Drosos
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - George Konstantonis
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Petros P Sfikakis
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece,Rheumatology Unit, First Department of Propaedeutic and Internal Medicine, Laiko Hospital, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, School of Medicine, Athens, Greece,Joint Academic Rheumatology Program, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
| | - Maria G Tektonidou
- Cardiovascular Risk Research Laboratory, First Department of Propaedeutic Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece .,Rheumatology Unit, First Department of Propaedeutic and Internal Medicine, Laiko Hospital, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, School of Medicine, Athens, Greece.,Joint Academic Rheumatology Program, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, School of Medicine, Athens, Greece
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27
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Rossello X. Cardiovascular risk assessment in survivors of cancer. Lancet 2023; 401:321-323. [PMID: 36702147 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)02582-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Xavier Rossello
- Cardiology Department, Hospital Universitari Son Espases, Palma 07120, Spain; Translational Laboratory for Cardiovascular Imaging and Therapy, Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares, Madrid, Spain; School of Medicine, University of the Balearic Islands, Palma, Spain.
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Østergaard HB, Humphreys V, Hengeveld EM, Honoré JB, Mach F, Visseren FLJ, Westerink J, Yadav G, Mosenzon O. Cardiovascular risk and lifetime benefit from preventive treatment in type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of the CAPTURE study. Diabetes Obes Metab 2023; 25:435-443. [PMID: 36199242 PMCID: PMC10092227 DOI: 10.1111/dom.14887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Revised: 10/03/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
AIM To assess the potential gain in the number of life-years free of a (recurrent) cardiovascular disease (CVD) event with optimal cardiovascular risk management (CVRM) and initiation of glucose-lowering agents with proven cardiovascular benefit in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). MATERIALS AND METHODS 9,416 individuals with T2D from the CAPTURE study, a non-interventional, cross-sectional, multinational study, were included. The diabetes lifetime-perspective prediction model was used for calculating individual 10-year and lifetime CVD risk. The distribution of preventive medication use was assessed according to predicted CVD risk and stratified for history of CVD. For the estimation of absolute individual benefit from lifelong preventive treatment, including optimal CVRM and the addition of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), the model was combined with treatment effects from current evidence. RESULTS GLP-1 RA or SGLT-2i use did not greatly differ between patients with and without CVD history, while use of blood pressure-lowering medication, statins and aspirin was more frequent in patients with CVD. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) lifetime benefit from optimal CVRM was 3.9 (3.0) and 1.3 (1.9) years in patients with and without established CVD, respectively. Further addition of a GLP-1 RA and an SGLT-2i in patients with CVD gave an added mean (SD) lifetime benefit of 1.2 (0.6) years. CONCLUSIONS Life-years gained free of (recurrent) CVD by optimal CVRM and the addition of a GLP-1 RA or aSGLT-2i is dependent on baseline CVD status. These results aid individualizing prevention and promote shared decision-making in patients with T2D.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - François Mach
- Cardiology Division, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Frank L J Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Jan Westerink
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Gourav Yadav
- Novo Nordisk Global Business Services, Bengaluru, India
| | - Ofri Mosenzon
- Diabetes Unit, Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Hadassah Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
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Aguiar C, Araujo F, Rubio-Mercade G, Carcedo D, Paz S, Castellano JM, Fuster V. Cost-Effectiveness of the CNIC-Polypill Strategy Compared With Separate Monocomponents in Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease in Portugal: The MERCURY Study. JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2022; 9:134-146. [PMID: 36475278 PMCID: PMC9687308 DOI: 10.36469/001c.39768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Background: Cardiovascular (CV) diseases remain a leading and costly cause of death globally. Patients with previous CV events are at high risk of recurrence. Secondary prevention therapies improve CV risk factor control and reduce disease costs. Objectives: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a CV polypill strategy (CNIC-Polypill) compared with the loose combination of monocomponents to improve the control of CV risk factors in patients with previous coronary heart disease or stroke. Methods: A Markov model cost-utility analysis was developed using 4 health states, SMART risk equation, and 3-month cycles for year 1 and annual cycles thereafter, over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the National Health System in Portugal (base case). The NEPTUNO study, Portuguese registries, mortality tables, official reports, and the literature were consulted to define effectiveness, epidemiological costs, and utility data. Outcomes were costs (estimated in 2020 euros) per life-year (LY) and quality-adjusted LY (QALY) gained. A 4% discount rate was applied. Alternative scenarios and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses tested the consistency and robustness of results. Results: The CNIC-Polypill strategy in secondary prevention provides more LY and QALY, at a higher cost, than monocomponents. The incremental cost-utility ratio is €1557/QALY gained. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30 000/QALY gained, there is a 79.7% and a 44.4% probability of the CNIC-Polypill being cost-effective and cost-saving, respectively, compared with the loose combination of monocomponents. Results remain consistent in the alternative scenarios and robust in the sensitivity analyses. Discussion: The model reflects increments in the number of years patients would live and in quality of life with the CNIC-Polypill. The clinical effectiveness of the CNIC-Polypill strategy initially demonstrated in the NEPTUNO study has been recently corroborated in the SECURE trial. The incremental cost of the CNIC-Polypill strategy emerges slightly above the comparator, but willingness-to-pay estimates and sensitivity analyses indicate that the CNIC-Polypill strategy is consistently cost-effective compared with monocomponents and remains within acceptable affordability margins. Conclusion: The CNIC-Polypill is a cost-effective secondary prevention strategy. In patients with histories of coronary heart disease or stroke, the CNIC-Polypill more effectively controls CV risk factors compared with monocomponents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Aguiar
- Serviço de Cardiologia, Hospital de Santa Cruz, Carnaxide, Portugal
| | - Francisco Araujo
- Departamento de Medicina Interna, Hospital Lusíadas, Lisboa, Portugal
| | | | | | | | - Jose María Castellano
- Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Centro Integral de Enfermedades Cardiovasculares, Hospital Universitario HM Monteprincipe, Grupo HM Hospitales, Madrid, Spain
| | - Valentín Fuster
- Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York
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30
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Rossello X, Massó-van Roessel A, Chioncel O, Tavazzi L, Ferrari R, Vahanian A, Gale CP, Popescu BA, Maggioni AP. EURObservational Research Programme: a bibliometric assessment of its scientific output. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. QUALITY OF CARE & CLINICAL OUTCOMES 2022; 8:804-811. [PMID: 35881480 DOI: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcac041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2022] [Revised: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
AIMS Given the lack of reliable observational data, a network of volunteer centres, and standardized methodological procedures, the European Society of Cardiology EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) was set up to provide a better understanding of real-world cardiovascular care and outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the scientific impact of EORP using a bibliometric approach. METHODS AND RESULTS We collected data for each individual publication and for each individual journal with at least one EORP publication. Bibliometric indicators evaluating research performance were categorized into those evaluating EORP publications (publication-based indicators) and those assessing the journals where those papers were published (journal-based indicators). During the first ∼11 years since its inception, we found that EORP produced 189 publications, with most published in journals in the first quartile (60.9%) or the second quartile (33.5%) of the Web of Science Journal Citation Report. The total number of citations to EORP publications was 9630 (average citation per publication of 51, h-index of 54, and 29 EORP publications with ≥100 citations). Of EORP publications, 20 had an Altmetric Attention Score >50 and 9 had a score >100. A total of 52 EORP papers have been cited 65 times in ESC Clinical Practice Guidelines between 2013 and 2021. CONCLUSION EORP registries have contributed to impactful scientific knowledge. The high-quality metrics highlight the relevance of the EORP international cardiovascular registries to the academic community. Efforts are needed to support this, and other programmes aimed at delivering real-world evidence from independent patient data of cardiovascular care and outcomes across multiple geographies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xavier Rossello
- Facultad de Medicina, Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB), Carretera de Valldemossa, 07122 Palma, Spain.,Cardiology Department, Health Research Institute of the Balearic Islands (IdISBa), Hospital Universitari Son Espases, 07120 Palma, Spain.,Translational Laboratory for Cardiovascular Imaging and Therapy, Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares (CNIC), 28029 Madrid, Spain.,Medical Statistics Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Albert Massó-van Roessel
- Facultad de Medicina, Universitat de les Illes Balears (UIB), Carretera de Valldemossa, 07122 Palma, Spain
| | - Ovidiu Chioncel
- Department of Cardiology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy 'Carol Davila', Bucharest 050474, Romania.,Department of Cardiology, Emergency Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases 'Prof. Dr C. C. Iliescu', 022328 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Luigi Tavazzi
- Maria Cecilia Hospital, GVM Care & Research, 48033 Cotignola, Italy
| | | | - Alec Vahanian
- UFR Médecine, Université de Paris, 75006 Paris, France.,LVTS INSERM U1148, GH Bichat, 75018 Paris, France
| | - Chris P Gale
- Leeds Institute of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.,Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9NL, UK.,Department of Cardiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds LS1 3EX, UK
| | - Bogdan A Popescu
- Department of Cardiology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy 'Carol Davila', Bucharest 050474, Romania.,Department of Cardiology, Emergency Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases 'Prof. Dr C. C. Iliescu', 022328 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Aldo P Maggioni
- ANMCO Research Center, Heart Care Foundation, 50014 Firenze, Italy
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31
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Hemels MEW. Biomarkers for cardiovascular risk prediction: from pioneering to evidence-based use in clinical practice. Neth Heart J 2022; 30:539-540. [DOI: 10.1007/s12471-022-01737-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
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Cathepsin S Levels and Survival Among Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes. J Am Coll Cardiol 2022; 80:998-1010. [PMID: 36049808 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Revised: 05/09/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are at high residual risk for long-term cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Cathepsin S (CTSS) is a lysosomal cysteine protease with elastolytic and collagenolytic activity that has been involved in atherosclerotic plaque rupture. OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to determine the following: 1) the prognostic value of circulating CTSS measured at patient admission for long-term mortality in NSTE-ACS; and 2) its additive value over the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score. METHODS This was a single-center cohort study, consecutively recruiting patients with adjudicated NSTE-ACS (n = 1,112) from the emergency department of an academic hospital. CTSS was measured in serum using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All-cause mortality at 8 years was the primary endpoint. CV death was the secondary endpoint. RESULTS In total, 367 (33.0%) deaths were recorded. CTSS was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR for highest vs lowest quarter of CTSS: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.34-2.66; P < 0.001) and CV death (HR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.15-5.77; P = 0.021) after adjusting for traditional CV risk factors, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, left ventricular ejection fraction, high-sensitivity troponin-T, revascularization and index diagnosis (unstable angina/ non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction). When CTSS was added to the GRACE score, it conferred significant discrimination and reclassification value for all-cause mortality (Delta Harrell's C: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.012-0.047; P = 0.001; and net reclassification improvement = 0.202; P = 0.003) and CV death (AUC: 0.056; 95% CI: 0.017-0.095; P = 0.005; and net reclassification improvement = 0.390; P = 0.001) even after additionally considering high-sensitivity troponin-T and left ventricular ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS Circulating CTSS is a predictor of long-term mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with NSTE-ACS over the GRACE score.
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Hagen AN, Ariansen I, Hanssen TA, Lappegård KT, Eggen AE, Løchen ML, Njølstad I, Wilsgaard T, Hopstock LA. Achievements of primary prevention targets in individuals with high risk of cardiovascular disease: an 8-year follow-up of the Tromsø study. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL OPEN 2022; 2:oeac061. [PMID: 36284643 PMCID: PMC9583183 DOI: 10.1093/ehjopen/oeac061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2022] [Revised: 08/05/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Aims To study change over 8 years in cardiovascular risk, achievement of national guideline-based treatment targets of lipids, blood pressure (BP) and smoking in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), medication use, and characteristics associated with target achievement among individuals with high CVD risk in a general population. Methods and results We followed 2524 women and men aged 40-79 years with high risk of CVD attending the population-based Tromsø study in 2007-08 (Tromsø6) to their participation in the next survey in 2015-16 (Tromsø7). We used descriptive statistics and regression models to study change in CVD risk and medication use, and characteristics associated with treatment target achievement. In total, 71.4% reported use of BP- and/or lipid-lowering medication at second screening. Overall, CVD risk decreased during follow-up, with a larger decrease among medication users compared with non-users. Treatment target achievement was 31.0% for total cholesterol <5 mmol/L, 27.3% for LDL cholesterol <3 mmol/L, 43.4% for BP <140/90 (<135/85 if diabetes) mmHg, and 85.4% for non-smoking. A total of 9.8% reached all treatment targets combined. Baseline risk factor levels and current medication use had the strongest associations with treatment target achievement. Conclusion We found an overall improvement in CVD risk factors among high-risk individuals over 8 years. However, guideline-based treatment target achievement was relatively low for all risk factors except smoking. Medication use was the strongest characteristic associated with achieving treatment targets. This study has demonstrated that primary prevention of CVD continues to remain a major challenge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amalie Nilsen Hagen
- Department of Medicine, Nordland Hospital, Parkveien 96, Nordland, 8005 Bodø, Norway
| | - Inger Ariansen
- Department of Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Folkehelseinstituttet, Postboks 222 Skøyen, 0213 Oslo, Norway
| | - Tove Aminda Hanssen
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital of North Norway, Universitetssykehuset Nord-Norge HF Postboks 100, 9038 Tromsø, Norway
- Department of Health and Care Sciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Knut Tore Lappegård
- Department of Medicine, Nordland Hospital, Parkveien 96, Nordland, 8005 Bodø, Norway
- Department of Clinical Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Anne Elise Eggen
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Maja-Lisa Løchen
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital of North Norway, Universitetssykehuset Nord-Norge HF Postboks 100, 9038 Tromsø, Norway
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Inger Njølstad
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Tom Wilsgaard
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Laila Arnesdatter Hopstock
- Department of Community Medicine, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, UiT Noregs arktiske universitet Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
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Estratificación de riesgo cardiovascular: conceptos, análisis crítico, desafíos e historia de su desarrollo en Chile. REVISTA MÉDICA CLÍNICA LAS CONDES 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rmclc.2022.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
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Van Poppel H, Albreht T, Basu P, Hogenhout R, Collen S, Roobol M. Serum PSA-based early detection of prostate cancer in Europe and globally: past, present and future. Nat Rev Urol 2022; 19:562-572. [PMID: 35974245 DOI: 10.1038/s41585-022-00638-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
In the pre-PSA-detection era, a large proportion of men were diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer and died of the disease; after the introduction of the serum PSA test, randomized controlled prostate cancer screening trials in the USA and Europe were conducted to assess the effect of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality. Contradictory outcomes of the trials and the accompanying overdiagnosis resulted in recommendations against prostate cancer screening by organizations such as the United States Preventive Services Task Force. These recommendations were followed by a decline in PSA testing and a rise in late-stage diagnosis and prostate cancer mortality. Re-evaluation of the randomized trials, which accounted for contamination, showed that PSA-based screening does indeed reduce prostate cancer mortality; however, the debate about whether to screen or not to screen continues because of the considerable overdiagnosis that occurs using PSA-based screening. Meanwhile, awareness among the population of prostate cancer as a potentially lethal disease stimulates opportunistic screening practices that further increase overdiagnosis without the benefit of mortality reduction. However, in the past decade, new screening tools have been developed that make the classic PSA-only-based screening an outdated strategy. With improved use of PSA, in combination with age, prostate volume and with the application of prostate cancer risk calculators, a risk-adapted strategy enables improved stratification of men with prostate cancer and avoidance of unnecessary diagnostic procedures. This combination used with advanced detection techniques (such as MRI and targeted biopsy), can reduce overdiagnosis. Moreover, new biomarkers are becoming available and will enable further improvements in risk stratification.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tit Albreht
- National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Partha Basu
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Renée Hogenhout
- Erasmus University Medical Center, Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Sarah Collen
- European Association of Urology, Arnhem, Netherlands
| | - Monique Roobol
- Erasmus University Medical Center, Cancer Institute, Rotterdam, Netherlands
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Bermúdez-López M, Martí-Antonio M, Castro-Boqué E, Bretones MDM, Farràs C, Torres G, Pamplona R, Lecube A, Mauricio D, Valdivielso JM, Fernández E. Development and Validation of a Personalized, Sex-Specific Prediction Algorithm of Severe Atheromatosis in Middle-Aged Asymptomatic Individuals: The ILERVAS Study. Front Cardiovasc Med 2022; 9:895917. [PMID: 35928938 PMCID: PMC9344070 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.895917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BackgroundAlthough European guidelines recommend vascular ultrasound for the assessment of cardiovascular risk in low-to-moderate risk individuals, no algorithm properly identifies patients who could benefit from it. The aim of this study is to develop a sex-specific algorithm to identify those patients, especially women who are usually underdiagnosed.MethodsClinical, anthropometrical, and biochemical data were combined with a 12-territory vascular ultrasound to predict severe atheromatosis (SA: ≥ 3 territories with plaque). A Personalized Algorithm for Severe Atheromatosis Prediction (PASAP-ILERVAS) was obtained by machine learning. Models were trained in the ILERVAS cohort (n = 8,330; 51% women) and validated in the control subpopulation of the NEFRONA cohort (n = 559; 47% women). Performance was compared to the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model.ResultsThe PASAP-ILERVAS is a sex-specific, easy-to-interpret predictive model that stratifies individuals according to their risk of SA in low, intermediate, or high risk. New clinical predictors beyond traditional factors were uncovered. In low- and high-risk (L&H-risk) men, the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.044 (95% CI: 0.020–0.068), and the integrated discrimination index (IDI) was 0.038 (95% CI: 0.029–0.048) compared to the SCORE. In L&H-risk women, PASAP-ILERVAS showed a significant increase in the area under the curve (AUC, 0.074 (95% CI: 0.062–0.087), p-value: < 0.001), an NRI of 0.193 (95% CI: 0.162–0.224), and an IDI of 0.119 (95% CI: 0.109–0.129).ConclusionThe PASAP-ILERVAS improves SA prediction, especially in women. Thus, it could reduce the number of unnecessary complementary explorations selecting patients for a further imaging study within the intermediate risk group, increasing cost-effectiveness and optimizing health resources.Clinical Trial Registration[www.ClinicalTrials.gov], identifier [NCT03228459].
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcelino Bermúdez-López
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
| | - Manuel Martí-Antonio
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
| | - Eva Castro-Boqué
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
| | - María del Mar Bretones
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
| | - Cristina Farràs
- Centre d’Atenció Primària Cappont, Gerència Territorial de Lleida, Institut Català de la Salut, Barcelona, Spain
- Research Support Unit Lleida, Fundació Institut Universitari per a la Recerca a l’Atenció Primària de Salut Jordi Gol i Gorina (IDIAPJGol), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Gerard Torres
- Departament de Medicina Respiratòria, Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova, Grup Recerca Translational Medicina Respiratòria, IRBLleida, Universitat de Lleida, Lleida, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Madrid, Spain
| | - Reinald Pamplona
- Departament de Medicina Experimental, IRBLleida, Universitat de Lleida, Lleida, Spain
| | - Albert Lecube
- Departament d’Endocrinologia i Nutrició, Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova, Grup de Recerca Obesitat i Metabolisme (ODIM), IRBLleida, Universitat de Lleida, Lleida, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Diabetes y Enfermedades Metabólicas Asociadas (CIBERDEM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
| | - Dídac Mauricio
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Diabetes y Enfermedades Metabólicas Asociadas (CIBERDEM), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain
- Departament d’Endocrinologia i Nutrició, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Institut de Recerca Biomèdica Sant Pau (IIB Sant Pau), Barcelona, Spain
| | - José Manuel Valdivielso
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
- *Correspondence: José Manuel Valdivielso,
| | - Elvira Fernández
- Grupo de Investigación Translacional Vascular y Renal, IRBLleida, Red de Investigación Renal (RedInRen-ISCIII), Lleida, Spain
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Druzhilov MA, Kuznetsova TY, Gavrilov DV, Gusev AV. Verification of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis as part of risk stratification in overweight and obesity: the role of machine learning in the development of a diagnostic algorithm. КАРДИОВАСКУЛЯРНАЯ ТЕРАПИЯ И ПРОФИЛАКТИКА 2022. [DOI: 10.15829/1728-8800-2022-3222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim. Comparative analysis of mathematical models obtained using multivariate logistic regression (MLR) with stepwise inclusion of predictors and machine learning (ML) for assessing the probability of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in normotensive overweight and obese patients without cardiovascular diseases and/or diabetes.Material and methods. We received data on patients from the Webiomed platform database. The inclusion criteria were age ≥18 years, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, extracranial artery ultrasound results, while the exclusion criteria included diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. MLR analysis was carried out with stepwise inclusion of predictors. ML algorithms were used to create an alternative model.Results. The overall percentage of true results for MLR model was 73,2%, while the proportion of true negative and positive predictions was 80,1% and 63,4%, respectively. Mathematical models created using ML methods are characterized by a predictive value from 75 to 97% with a sensitivity of 77 to 92% and a specificity of 80 to 98%.Conclusion. A significant superiority of ML models was revealed in the study of available clinical and paraclinical parameters. Integration of ML mathematical models into a diagnostic algorithm for making a decision to refer a low-risk patient for extracranial artery ultrasound will significantly improve its accuracy and cost efficiency.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - A. V. Gusev
- LLC K-Sky; Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics; Research and Practical Clinical Center for Diagnostics and Telemedicine Technologies
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Schulberg SD, Ferry AV, Jin K, Marshall L, Neubeck L, Strachan FE, Mills NL. Cardiovascular risk communication strategies in primary prevention. A systematic review with narrative synthesis. J Adv Nurs 2022; 78:3116-3140. [PMID: 35719002 PMCID: PMC9546276 DOI: 10.1111/jan.15327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2021] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
AIM To evaluate the effectiveness of cardiovascular risk communication strategies to improve understanding and promote risk factor modification. DESIGN Systematic review with narrative synthesis. DATA SOURCES A comprehensive database search for quantitative and qualitative studies was conducted in five databases, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied health Literature (CINAHL), Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), EMBASE, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA) and Web of Science. The searches were conducted between 1980 and July 2019. REVIEW METHODS The systematic review was conducted in accordance with Cochrane review methods. Data were extracted and a narrative synthesis of quantitative and qualitative results was undertaken. RESULTS The abstracts of 16,613 articles were assessed and 210 underwent in-depth review, with 31 fulfilling the inclusion criteria. We observed significant heterogeneity across study designs and outcomes. Nine communication strategies were identified including numerical formats, graphical formats, qualitative information, infographics, avatars, game interactions, timeframes, genetic risk scores and cardiovascular imaging. Strategies that used cardiovascular imaging had the biggest impact on health behaviour change and risk factor modification. Improvements were seen in diet, exercise, smoking, risk scores, cholesterol and intentions to take preventive medication. CONCLUSION A wide range of cardiovascular risk communication strategies has been evaluated, with those that employ personalized and visual evidence of current cardiovascular health status more likely to promote action to reduce risk. IMPACT Future risk communication strategies should incorporate methods to provide individuals with evidence of their current cardiovascular health status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stacey D Schulberg
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amy V Ferry
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kai Jin
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lucy Marshall
- Critical Care Research Group, NHS Lothian, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lis Neubeck
- School of Health and Social Care, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Fiona E Strachan
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Nicholas L Mills
- BHF Centre for Cardiovascular Science, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.,Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Westerink J, Matthiessen KS, Nuhoho S, Fainberg U, Lyng Wolden M, Østergaard HB, Visseren F, Sattar N. Estimated Life-Years Gained Free of New or Recurrent Major Cardiovascular Events With the Addition of Semaglutide to Standard of Care in People With Type 2 Diabetes and High Cardiovascular Risk. Diabetes Care 2022; 45:1211-1218. [PMID: 35263432 PMCID: PMC9174968 DOI: 10.2337/dc21-1138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 02/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist, reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a post hoc analysis of pooled data from Trial to Evaluate Cardiovascular and Other Long-term Outcomes with Semaglutide in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes (SUSTAIN) 6 and Peptide Innovation for Early Diabetes Treatment (PIONEER) 6. We estimated the benefit of adding semaglutide to standard of care (SoC) on life-years free of new/recurrent CVD events in people with T2D at high risk of CVD. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) competing risk-adjusted lifetime CVD risk model for people with T2D was developed previously. Baseline characteristics of the pooled cohort from SUSTAIN 6 and PIONEER 6 (POOLED cohort) (N = 6,480) were used to estimate individual life expectancy free of CVD for patients in the POOLED cohort. The hazard ratio of MACE from adding semaglutide to SoC was derived from the POOLED cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 0.76 [95% CI 0.62-0.92]) and combined with an individual's risk to estimate their CVD benefit. RESULTS Adding semaglutide to SoC was associated with a wide distribution in life-years free of CVD gained, with a mean increase of 1.7 (95% CI 0.5-2.9) life-years. Estimated life-years free of CVD gained with semaglutide was dependent on baseline risk (life-years free of CVD gained in individuals with established CVD vs. those with cardiovascular risk factors only: 2.0 vs. 0.2) and age at treatment initiation. CONCLUSIONS Adding semaglutide to SoC was associated with a gain in life-years free of CVD events that was dependent on baseline CVD risk and age at treatment initiation. This study helps contextualize the results of semaglutide clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Westerink
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Frank Visseren
- Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Naveed Sattar
- Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, U.K
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Vavassori C, Cipriani E, Colombo GI. Circulating MicroRNAs as Novel Biomarkers in Risk Assessment and Prognosis of Coronary Artery Disease. Eur Cardiol 2022; 17:e06. [PMID: 35321524 PMCID: PMC8924954 DOI: 10.15420/ecr.2021.47] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Coronary artery disease is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Nevertheless, available cardiovascular risk prediction algorithms still miss a significant portion of individuals at-risk. Thus, the search for novel non-invasive biomarkers to refine cardiovascular risk assessment is both an urgent need and an attractive topic, which may lead to a more accurate risk stratification and/or prognostic score definition for coronary artery disease. A new class of such non-invasive biomarkers is represented by extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) circulating in the blood. MiRNAs are non-coding RNA of 22–25 nucleotides in length that play a significant role in both cardiovascular physiology and pathophysiology. Given their high stability and conservation, resistance to degradative enzymes, and detectability in body fluids, circulating miRNAs are promising emerging biomarkers, and specific expression patterns have already been associated with a wide range of cardiovascular conditions. In this review, an overview of the role of blood miRNAs in risk assessment and prognosis of coronary artery disease is given.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chiara Vavassori
- Unit of Immunology and Functional Genomics, Centro Cardiologico Monzino, IRCCS, Milan, Italy; Cardiovascular Section, Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Eleonora Cipriani
- Unit of Immunology and Functional Genomics, Centro Cardiologico Monzino, IRCCS, Milan, Italy
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Beer BN, Jentzer JC, Weimann J, Dabboura S, Yan I, Sundermeyer J, Kirchhof P, Blankenberg S, Schrage B, Westermann D. Early risk stratification in patients with cardiogenic shock irrespective of the underlying cause - The Cardiogenic Shock Score (CSS). Eur J Heart Fail 2022; 24:657-667. [PMID: 35119176 DOI: 10.1002/ejhf.2449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS Early risk stratification is essential to guide treatment in cardiogenic shock (CS). Existing CS risk scores were derived in selected cohorts, without accounting for the heterogeneity of CS. The aim of this study was to develop a universal risk score (CSS) for all CS patients, irrespective of underlying cause. METHODS AND RESULTS Within a registry of 1,308 CS unselected patients admitted to a tertiary-care hospital between 2009 and 2019, a Cox regression model was fitted to derive the CSS, with 30-day mortality as main outcome. CSS's predictive ability was compared to the IABP-Shock-II score, the CardShock score and SCAI classification by C-indices and validated in an external cohort of 934 CS patients. Based on the Cox regression, 9 predictors were included in the CSS: age, sex, acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS), systolic blood pressure, heart rate, pH, lactate, glucose and cardiac arrest. CSS had the highest C-index in the overall cohort (0.740 vs. 0.677/0.683 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score), in patients with AMI-CS (0.738 vs. 0.675/0.689 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score) and in patients with non-AMI-CS (0.734 vs. 0.677/0.669 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score). In the external validation cohort, the CSS had a C-index of 0.73, which was higher than all other tested scores. CONCLUSION The CSS provides improved information on the risk of death in unselected patients with CS compared to existing scores, irrespective of its cause. Because it is based on point-of-care variables which can be obtained even in critical situations, the CSS has the potential to guide treatment decisions in CS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benedikt N Beer
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany
| | - Jacob C Jentzer
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA
| | - Jessica Weimann
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany
| | - Salim Dabboura
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany
| | - Isabell Yan
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany
| | - Jonas Sundermeyer
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany
| | - Paulus Kirchhof
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany.,Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, UK
| | - Stefan Blankenberg
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany
| | - Benedikt Schrage
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany
| | - Dirk Westermann
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Germany.,German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Lübeck/Kiel, Germany
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Neumann JT, Thao LTP, Callander E, Chowdhury E, Williamson JD, Nelson MR, Donnan G, Woods RL, Reid CM, Poppe KK, Jackson R, Tonkin AM, McNeil JJ. Cardiovascular risk prediction in healthy older people. GeroScience 2022; 44:403-413. [PMID: 34762275 PMCID: PMC8810999 DOI: 10.1007/s11357-021-00486-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Accepted: 11/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Identification of individuals with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is important. However, algorithms specific to the elderly are lacking. Data were analysed from a randomised trial involving 18,548 participants ≥ 70 years old (mean age 75.4 years), without prior cardiovascular disease events, dementia or physical disability. MACE included coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal ischaemic stroke or myocardial infarction. Potential predictors tested were based on prior evidence and using a machine-learning approach. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate 5-year predicted risk, and discrimination evaluated from receiver operating characteristic curves. Calibration was also assessed, and the findings internally validated using bootstrapping. External validation was performed in 25,138 healthy, elderly individuals in the primary care environment. During median follow-up of 4.7 years, 594 MACE occurred. Predictors in the final model included age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), non-HDL-c, serum creatinine, diabetes and intake of antihypertensive agents. With variable selection based on machine-learning, age, sex and creatinine were the most important predictors. The final model resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 68.1 (95% confidence intervals 65.9; 70.4). The model had an AUC of 67.5 in internal and 64.2 in external validation. The model rank-ordered risk well but underestimated absolute risk in the external validation cohort. A model predicting incident MACE in healthy, elderly individuals includes well-recognised, potentially reversible risk factors and notably, renal function. Calibration would be necessary when used in other populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes T Neumann
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia.
- Department of Cardiology, University Heart & Vascular Centre, Hamburg, Germany.
- German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Le T P Thao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - Emily Callander
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - Enayet Chowdhury
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Jeff D Williamson
- Sticht Centre On Aging and Alzheimer's Prevention, Section On Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
| | - Mark R Nelson
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - Geoffrey Donnan
- Melbourne Brain Centre, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Robyn L Woods
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - Christopher M Reid
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Katrina K Poppe
- Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Rod Jackson
- Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Andrew M Tonkin
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
| | - John J McNeil
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne, Victoria, 3004, Australia
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Rawal LB, Sun Y, Dahal PK, Baral SC, Khanal S, Arjyal A, Manandhar S, Abdullah AS. Engaging Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs) for cardiovascular diseases risk screening in Nepal. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0261518. [PMID: 34990481 PMCID: PMC8735630 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2021] [Accepted: 12/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction
Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) have become the leading public health problems worldwide and the cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is one of the major NCDs. Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs) in Nepal are the key drivers to implementing frontline health services. We explored the potential for engaging FCHVs for CVD risk screening at the community level in Nepal.
Methods
We used multiple approaches (quantitative and qualitative) for data collection. The trained FCHVs administered CVD risk screening questionnaire among 491 adults in rural and urban areas and calculated the CVD risk scores. To maintain consistency and quality, a registered medical doctor also, using the same risk scoring chart, independently calculated the CVD risk scores. Kappa statistics and concordance coefficient were used to compare these two sets of risk screening results. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted. Two focus group discussions among the FCHVs were conducted to determine their experiences with CVD risk screening and willingness to engage with CVD prevention and control efforts.
Results
The mean level of agreement between two sets of risk screening results was 94.5% (Kappa = 0.77, P<0.05). Sensitivity of FCHV screening was 90.3% (95% CI: 0.801–0.964); and the specificity was 97% (95% CI: 0.948, 0.984). FCHVs who participated in the FGDs expressed a strong enthusiasm and readiness to using the CVD risk screening tools. Despite their busy workload, all FCHVs showed high level of motivation and willingness in using CVD risk screening tools and contribute to the prevention and control efforts of NCDs. The FCHVs recommended needs for providing additional training and capacity building opportunities.
Conclusion
We conclude that there is a potential for engaging FCHVs to use simple CVD risk screening tools at the community level. The findings are promising, however, further studies engaging larger number of FCHVs and larger population would warrant feasibility of such tools within the existing healthcare systems in Nepal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lal B. Rawal
- School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, College of Science and Sustainability, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Australia
- Physical Activity Research Group, Appleton Institute, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Australia
- Translational Health Research Institute, and School of Social Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, Australia
- * E-mail: , (LBR); (ASA)
| | - Yuewen Sun
- Global Health Institute, Duke Kunshan University, Jiangsu, China
| | - Padam K. Dahal
- School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, College of Science and Sustainability, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Australia
| | | | - Sudeepa Khanal
- HERD International, Kathmandu, Nepal
- School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
| | | | | | - Abu S. Abdullah
- Global Health Institute, Duke Kunshan University, Jiangsu, China
- Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durban, NC, United States of America
- Boston University School of Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States of America
- * E-mail: , (LBR); (ASA)
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OUP accepted manuscript. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2022; 29:1412-1424. [DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwac033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2021] [Revised: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
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Berkelmans G, Read S, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Wild S, Franzen S, van der Graaf Y, Eliasson B, Visseren F, Paynter N, Dorresteijn J. Population median imputation was noninferior to complex approaches for imputing missing values in cardiovascular prediction models in clinical practice. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 145:70-80. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 12/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/17/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
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Temporelli PL. Risk scores, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and the crystal ball. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2021; 28:e14-e15. [PMID: 33611441 DOI: 10.1177/2047487320903157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Castela Forte J, Folkertsma P, Gannamani R, Kumaraswamy S, Mount S, de Koning TJ, van Dam S, Wolffenbuttel BHR. Development and Validation of Decision Rules Models to Stratify Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes, and Hypertension Risk in Preventive Care: Cohort Study of Returning UK Biobank Participants. J Pers Med 2021; 11:1322. [PMID: 34945794 PMCID: PMC8707007 DOI: 10.3390/jpm11121322] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2021] [Revised: 10/23/2021] [Accepted: 11/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Many predictive models exist that predict risk of common cardiometabolic conditions. However, a vast majority of these models do not include genetic risk scores and do not distinguish between clinical risk requiring medical or pharmacological interventions and pre-clinical risk, where lifestyle interventions could be first-choice therapy. In this study, we developed, validated, and compared the performance of three decision rule algorithms including biomarkers, physical measurements, and genetic risk scores for incident coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes (T2D), and hypertension against commonly used clinical risk scores in 60,782 UK Biobank participants. The rules models were tested for an association with incident CAD, T2D, and hypertension, and hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) were calculated from survival models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and Net Reclassification Index (NRI). The higher risk group in the decision rules model had a 40-, 40.9-, and 21.6-fold increased risk of CAD, T2D, and hypertension, respectively (p < 0.001 for all). Risk increased significantly between the three strata for all three conditions (p < 0.05). Based on genetic risk alone, we identified not only a high-risk group, but also a group at elevated risk for all health conditions. These decision rule models comprising blood biomarkers, physical measurements, and polygenic risk scores moderately improve commonly used clinical risk scores at identifying individuals likely to benefit from lifestyle intervention for three of the most common lifestyle-related chronic health conditions. Their utility as part of digital data or digital therapeutics platforms to support the implementation of lifestyle interventions in preventive and primary care should be further validated.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Castela Forte
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
| | - Pytrik Folkertsma
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
- Department of Endocrinology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands;
| | - Rahul Gannamani
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
- Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands;
| | - Sridhar Kumaraswamy
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
| | - Sarah Mount
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
| | - Tom J. de Koning
- Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands;
- Pediatrics, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Sölvegatan 19-BMC F12, 221 84 Lund, Sweden
| | - Sipko van Dam
- Ancora Health B.V., Herestraat 106, 9711 LM Groningen, The Netherlands; (P.F.); (R.G.); (S.K.); (S.M.); (S.v.D.)
- Department of Endocrinology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands;
| | - Bruce H. R. Wolffenbuttel
- Department of Endocrinology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ Groningen, The Netherlands;
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Imai Y, Mizuno Tanaka S, Satoh M, Hirata T, Murakami Y, Miura K, Waki T, Hirata A, Sairenchi T, Irie F, Sata M, Ninomiya T, Ohkubo T, Ishikawa S, Miyamoto Y, Ohnishi H, Saitoh S, Tamakoshi A, Yamada M, Kiyama M, Iso H, Sakata K, Nakagawa H, Okayama A, Ueshima H, Okamura T. Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population. J Am Heart Assoc 2021; 10:e021753. [PMID: 34845914 PMCID: PMC9075349 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.121.021753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Background Lifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors. Methods and Results We analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan–Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person‐years of follow‐up were included. The lifetime risk at the index‐age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%] for women). Conclusions The magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short‐term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yukiko Imai
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
| | | | - Michihiro Satoh
- Division of Public Health, Hygiene, and Epidemiology Tohoku Medical and Pharmaceutical University Sendai Japan
| | - Takumi Hirata
- Department of Public Health Hokkaido University Faculty of Medicine Sapporo Japan
| | - Yoshitaka Murakami
- Department of Medical Statistics Toho University School of Medicine Tokyo Japan
| | - Katsuyuki Miura
- Department of Public Health Center for Epidemiologic Research in AsiaShiga University of Medical Science Shiga Japan
| | - Takashi Waki
- Department of Medical Statistics Shiga University of Medical Science Shiga Japan
| | - Aya Hirata
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
| | - Toshimi Sairenchi
- Department of Public Health Dokkyo Medical University School of Medicine Tochigi Japan
| | - Fujiko Irie
- Department of Health and Welfare Ibaraki Prefectural Office Ibaraki Japan
| | - Mizuki Sata
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
| | - Toshiharu Ninomiya
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Graduate School of Medical Sciences Kyushu University Fukuoka Japan
| | - Takayoshi Ohkubo
- Department of Hygiene and Public Health Teikyo University School of Medicine Tokyo Japan
| | | | - Yoshihiro Miyamoto
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Osaka Japan
| | - Hirofumi Ohnishi
- Department of Public Health Sapporo Medical University Sapporo Japan
| | - Shigeyuki Saitoh
- Department of Nursing Sapporo Medical University School of Health Sciences Sapporo Japan
| | - Akiko Tamakoshi
- Department of Public Health Hokkaido University Faculty of Medicine Sapporo Japan
| | - Michiko Yamada
- Department of Clinical Studies Radiation Effects Research Foundation Hiroshima Japan
| | - Masahiko Kiyama
- Osaka Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Osaka Japan
| | - Hiroyasu Iso
- Public Health, Department of Social Medicine Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine Osaka Japan
| | - Kiyomi Sakata
- Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine Iwate Medical University School of Medicine Iwate Japan
| | - Hideaki Nakagawa
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine Kanazawa Medical University Kanazawa Japan
| | - Akira Okayama
- Research Institute of Strategy for Prevention Tokyo Japan
| | - Hirotsugu Ueshima
- Department of Public Health Center for Epidemiologic Research in AsiaShiga University of Medical Science Shiga Japan
| | - Tomonori Okamura
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
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Kopylova OV, Ershova AI, Meshkov AN, Kontsevaya AV, Drapkina OM. Lifetime prevention of cardiovascular disease. Part III: young, middle, elderly and senile age. КАРДИОВАСКУЛЯРНАЯ ТЕРАПИЯ И ПРОФИЛАКТИКА 2021. [DOI: 10.15829/1728-8800-2021-2991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Intensive investigation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (RFs), both traditional (smoking, dyslipidemia, diabetes, etc.) and non-traditional, which are a component of the so-called exposome, as well as their non-drug and drug correction provide wide prospects for effective cardiovascular prevention. Prevention becomes the dominant trend in cardiology and in medicine in general. The aim of the article was to describe cardiovascular prevention in young, middle, elderly and senile age. Due to the multifaceted nature of cardiovascular RFs, an integrated biopsychosocial approach, individual and population-based prevention, cumulative risk assessment of all CVDs, intersectoral collaboration and the involvement of decision-makers, are key to the success and effectiveness of prevention measures. It is important to note that, on the one hand, preventive measures should be started as early as possible due to cumulative effect of RFs, on the other hand, most of the preventive interventions for CVD are extremely relevant at all life stages.
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Affiliation(s)
- O. V. Kopylova
- National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine
| | - A. I. Ershova
- National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine
| | - A. N. Meshkov
- National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine
| | - A. V. Kontsevaya
- National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine
| | - O. M. Drapkina
- National Medical Research Center for Therapy and Preventive Medicine
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Chipayo-Gonzales D, Ramakrishna H, Nuñez-Gil IJ. Score2: A New Updated Algorithm to Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Europe. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth 2021; 36:18-21. [PMID: 34686439 DOI: 10.1053/j.jvca.2021.09.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2021] [Accepted: 09/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
The recently published guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases presented in August 2021 at the virtual European Society of Cardiology congress recommend the use of the SCORE2 risk index instead of the classic SCORE risk index to calculate the cardiovascular risk (specifically, ten-year fatal and nonfatal risk) in a healthy population under the age of 70 years, with a level of evidence IB. This new risk index was developed with the collaboration of about 200 investigators, including 45 cohorts in 13 countries with 700,000 participants, and covers the known risk factors for heart and circulatory diseases such as age, sex, lipid levels, blood pressure, and smoking. In addition, it divides the countries into four groups of risk and uses a competing risk model, adjusting the risk for the probability of having another event, which enables better estimation of the risk of fatal and nonfatal events in a younger population (40-69 years).
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Affiliation(s)
- David Chipayo-Gonzales
- Division of Interventional Cardiology, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
| | - Harish Ramakrishna
- Division of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Anesthesiology, Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester Minnesota, MN.
| | - Ivan J Nuñez-Gil
- Division of Interventional Cardiology, Cardiovascular Institute, Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
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