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Self S, Yang Y, Walden H, Yabsley MJ, McMahan C, Herrin BH. A nowcast model to predict outdoor flea activity in real time for the contiguous United States. Parasit Vectors 2024; 17:27. [PMID: 38254213 PMCID: PMC10804753 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-06112-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 12/26/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis), a parasite commonly found on both dogs and cats, is a competent vector for several zoonotic pathogens, including Dipylidium caninum (tapeworms), Bartonella henselae (responsible for cat scratch disease) and Rickettsia felis (responsible for flea-borne spotted fever). Veterinarians recommend that both cats and dogs be routinely treated with medications to prevent flea infestation. Nevertheless, surveys suggest that nearly one third of pet owners do not routinely administer appropriate preventatives. METHODS A mathematical model based on weighted averaging over time is developed to predict outdoor flea activity from weather conditions for the contiguous United States. This 'nowcast' model can be updated in real time as weather conditions change and serves as an important tool for educating pet owners about the risks of flea-borne disease. We validate our model using Google Trends data for searches for the term 'fleas.' This Google Trends data serve as a proxy for true flea activity, as validating the model by collecting fleas over the entire USA is prohibitively costly and time-consuming. RESULTS The average correlation (r) between the nowcast outdoor flea activity predictions and the Google Trends data was moderate: 0.65, 0.70, 0.66, 0.71 and 0.63 for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. However, there was substantial regional variation in performance, with the average correlation in the East South Atlantic states being 0.81 while the average correlation in the Mountain states was only 0.45. The nowcast predictions displayed strong seasonal and geographic patterns, with predicted activity generally being highest in the summer months. CONCLUSIONS The nowcast model is a valuable tool by which to educate pet owners regarding the risk of fleas and flea-borne disease and the need to routinely administer flea preventatives. While it is ideal for domestic cats and dogs to on flea preventatives year-round, many pets remain vulnerable to flea infestation. Alerting pet owners to the local increased risk of flea activity during certain times of the year may motivate them to administer appropriate routine preventives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stella Self
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, USA
| | - Yuan Yang
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, USA
| | - Heather Walden
- Department of Comparative, Diagnostic and Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
| | - Michael J Yabsley
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, USA
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, USA
| | - Christopher McMahan
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, USA
| | - Brian H Herrin
- Department of Diagnostic Medicine/Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, USA.
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Athni TS, Childs ML, Glidden CK, Mordecai EA. Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.12.04.569955. [PMID: 38105988 PMCID: PMC10723351 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.04.569955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.
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Carrera-Faja L, Yesson C, Jones BA, Benfield CTO, Kock RA. An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo ( Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem. Pathogens 2023; 12:1423. [PMID: 38133306 PMCID: PMC10747384 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12121423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/01/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Carrera-Faja
- Wildlife Conservation Medicine Research Group, Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animal, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Edifici V, Travessera dels Turons, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Chris Yesson
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, UK;
| | - Bryony A. Jones
- WOAH Collaborating Centre in Risk Analysis and Modelling, Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK;
| | - Camilla T. O. Benfield
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy;
| | - Richard A. Kock
- Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London NW1 0TU, UK
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Lippi CA, Mundis SJ, Sippy R, Flenniken JM, Chaudhary A, Hecht G, Carlson CJ, Ryan SJ. Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:302. [PMID: 37641089 PMCID: PMC10463544 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05912-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 08/04/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine A Lippi
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA.
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA.
| | - Stephanie J Mundis
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
| | - Rachel Sippy
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, KY16 9SS, UK
| | - J Matthew Flenniken
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
| | - Anusha Chaudhary
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
| | - Gavriella Hecht
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA
| | - Colin J Carlson
- Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA.
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32601, USA.
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Li X, Wei X, Yin W, Soares Magalhaes RJ, Xu Y, Wen L, Peng H, Qian Q, Sun H, Zhang W. Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China. Parasit Vectors 2023; 16:44. [PMID: 36721181 PMCID: PMC9887782 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-023-05668-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/13/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated. METHODS A negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk. RESULTS The final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference vegetation index, and land cover types. The projected potentially most suitable areas for scrub typhus were widely distributed across the eastern coastal area of Fujian Province, with highly suitable and moderately suitable areas accounting for 16.14% and 9.42%, respectively. Of the total human population of the province, 81.63% reside in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus. CONCLUSIONS These findings could help deepen our understanding of the risk factors of scrub typhus, and provide information for public health authorities in Fujian Province to develop more effective surveillance and control strategies in identified high risk areas in Fujian Province.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuan Li
- grid.186775.a0000 0000 9490 772XDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China ,grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xianyu Wei
- grid.186775.a0000 0000 9490 772XDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China ,grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wenwu Yin
- grid.198530.60000 0000 8803 2373Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes
- grid.1003.20000 0000 9320 7537Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia ,grid.1003.20000 0000 9320 7537Child Health Research Center, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yuanyong Xu
- grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Liang Wen
- grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hong Peng
- grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Quan Qian
- grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hailong Sun
- grid.186775.a0000 0000 9490 772XDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China ,grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- grid.186775.a0000 0000 9490 772XDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China ,grid.488137.10000 0001 2267 2324Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Giesen C, Herrador Z, Fernandez B, Figuerola J, Gangoso L, Vazquez A, Gómez-Barroso D. A systematic review of environmental factors related to WNV circulation in European and Mediterranean countries. One Health 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
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7
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Amdouni J, Conte A, Ippoliti C, Candeloro L, Tora S, Sghaier S, Hassine TB, Fakhfekh EA, Savini G, Hammami S. Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches. Vet Med Sci 2022; 8:2703-2715. [PMID: 36005907 PMCID: PMC9677390 DOI: 10.1002/vms3.897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level. OBJECTIVES In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia. METHODS To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens. RESULTS Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. CONCLUSIONS The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jihane Amdouni
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Annamaria Conte
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Carla Ippoliti
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Luca Candeloro
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Susanna Tora
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Soufien Sghaier
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Thameur Ben Hassine
- Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi ThabetUniv. ManoubaIRESATunisie
| | - Emna Ayari Fakhfekh
- Université Tunis El Manar, Institut de la Recherche Vétérinaire de TunisieTunisTunisie
| | - Giovanni Savini
- Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’TeramoItaly
| | - Salah Hammami
- Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi ThabetUniv. ManoubaIRESATunisie
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Soltanbeiglu S, Mohammadi Bavani M, Vahedi M, Chavshin AR. Susceptibility of Culiseta longiareolata to insecticides in West Azerbaijan province, northwestern Iran. VETERINARY RESEARCH FORUM : AN INTERNATIONAL QUARTERLY JOURNAL 2022; 13:435-437. [PMID: 36320294 PMCID: PMC9548223 DOI: 10.30466/vrf.2020.134833.3025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Mosquitoes are involved in the transmission of a wide range of diseases and among them, Culiseta longiareolata, acts as a vector of avian malaria, tularemia and several arboviruses like West Nile fever. The current study was conducted to determine the susceptibility of C. longiareolata against deltamethrin 0.05% (pyrethroids), fenitrothion 1.00% (organophosphate) and bendiocarb 0.10% (carbamate). Mosquitoes were collected from different parts of Urmia county, the capital of West Azerbaijan. In the current study, 443 empty 3 - 5 days old adult female C. longiareolata were used for susceptibility tests. The susceptibility status of C. longiareolata was determined using WHO's recommended procedure. The results indicated higher mortality rates of Culiseta longiareolata against studied insecticides. Culiseta longiareolata, was resistant to all studied insecticides (deltamethrin, mortality rate: 62.50%, fenitrothion, mortality rate: 35.96% and bendiocarb, mortality rate: 20.16%). The current study represents the first report of susceptibility status of C. longiareolata to fenitrothion and bendicarb in Iran. Considering the climatic diversity and geographical conditions of northwestern Iran, reports of resistance of other mosquitoes' of this region, the susceptibility status of medically and veterinary important mosquitoes should be given serious attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shadiyeh Soltanbeiglu
- Department of Medical Entomology, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Mulood Mohammadi Bavani
- Department of Medical Entomology, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Mozaffar Vahedi
- Department of Medical Entomology, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
| | - Ali Reza Chavshin
- Department of Medical Entomology, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran; ,Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran.,Correspondence Ali Reza Chavshin. PhD Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control, School of Public Health, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran. E-mail:
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Shaheen MNF. The concept of one health applied to the problem of zoonotic diseases. Rev Med Virol 2022; 32:e2326. [PMID: 35060214 DOI: 10.1002/rmv.2326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2021] [Revised: 01/03/2022] [Accepted: 01/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Zoonotic diseases are a burden on healthcare systems globally, particularly underdeveloped nations. Numerous vertebrate animals (e.g., birds, mammals and reptiles) serve as amplifier hosts or reservoirs for viral zoonoses. The spread of zoonotic disease is associated with environmental factors, climate change, animal health as well as other human activities including globalization, urbanization and travel. Diseases at the human-animal environment interface (e.g., zoonotic diseases, vector-borne diseases, food/water borne diseases) continue to pose risk to animals and humans with a great significant mortality and morbidity. It is estimated that of 1400 infectious diseases known to affect humans, 60% of them are of animal origin. In addition, 75% of the emerging infectious diseases have a zoonotic nature, worldwide. The one health concept plays an important role in the control and prevention of zoonoses by integrating animal, human, and environmental health through collaboration and communication among osteopaths, wildlife, physicians, veterinarians professionals, public health and environmental experts, nurses, dentists, physicists, biomedical engineers, plant pathologists, biochemists, and others. No one sector, organization, or person can address issues at the animal-human-ecosystem interface alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamed N F Shaheen
- Environmental Virology Laboratory, Water Pollution Research Department, Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, National Research Center, Giza, Egypt
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10
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Pramanik M, Singh P, Dhiman RC. Identification of bio-climatic determinants and potential risk areas for Kyasanur forest disease in Southern India using MaxEnt modelling approach. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:1226. [PMID: 34876036 PMCID: PMC8650402 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06908-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2020] [Accepted: 11/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Kyasanur forest disease (KFD), known as monkey fever, was for the first time reported in 1957 from the Shivamogga district of Karnataka. But since 2011, it has been spreading to the neighbouring state of Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. The disease is transmitted to humans, monkeys and by the infected bite of ticks Haemaphysalis spinigera. It is known that deforestation and ecological changes are the main reasons for KFD emergence, but the bio-climatic understanding and emerging pathways remain unknown. METHODS The present study aims to understand the bio-climatic determinants of distribution of tick vector of KFD in southern India using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The analysis was done using 34 locations of Haemaphysalis spinigera occurrence and nineteen bio-climatic variables from WorldClim. Climatic variables contribution was assessed using the Jackknife test and mean AUC 0.859, indicating the model performs with very high accuracy. RESULTS Most influential variables affecting the spatial distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera were the average temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10, contributed 32.5%), average diurnal temperature range (bio2, contributed 21%), precipitation of wettest period (bio13, contributed 17.6%), and annual precipitation (bio12, contributed 11.1%). The highest probability of Haemaphysalis spinigera presence was found when the mean warmest quarter temperature ranged between 25.4 and 30 °C. The risk of availability of the tick increased noticeably when the mean diurnal temperature ranged between 8 and 10 °C. The tick also preferred habitat having an annual mean temperature (bio1) between 23 and 26.2 °C, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) between 20 and 28 °C, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) between 22.5 and 25 °C. CONCLUSIONS The results have established the relationship between bioclimatic variables and KFD tick distribution and mapped the potential areas for KFD in adjacent areas wherein surveillance for the disease is warranted for early preparedness before the occurrence of outbreaks etc. The modelling approach helps link bio-climatic variables with the present and predicted distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera tick.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malay Pramanik
- Environmental Epidemiology Division, ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector 8, Dwarka, Delhi, 110077 India
| | - Poonam Singh
- Environmental Epidemiology Division, ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector 8, Dwarka, Delhi, 110077 India
| | - Ramesh C. Dhiman
- Environmental Epidemiology Division, ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector 8, Dwarka, Delhi, 110077 India
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Cuervo PF, Artigas P, Mas-Coma S, Bargues MD. West Nile virus in Spain: Forecasting the geographical distribution of risky areas with an ecological niche modelling approach. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:e1113-e1129. [PMID: 34812589 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Revised: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 11/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV), a well-known emerging vector-borne arbovirus with a zoonotic life cycle, represents a threat to both public and animal health. Transmitted by ornithophilic mosquitoes, its transmission is difficult to predict and even more difficult to prevent. The massive and unprecedented number of human cases and equid outbreaks in Spain during 2020 interpellates for new approaches. For the first time, we present an integrate analysis from a niche perspective to provide an insight to the situation of West Nile disease (WND) in Spain. Our modelling approach benefits from the combined use of global occurrence records of outbreaks of WND in equids and of its two alleged main vectors in Spain, Culex pipiens and Cx. perexiguus. Maps of the climatic suitability for the presence of the two vectors species and for the circulation of WNV are provided. The main outcome of our study is a map delineating the areas under certain climatic risk of transmission. Our analyses indicate that the climatic risk of transmission of WND is medium in areas nearby the south Atlantic coastal area of the Cadiz Gulf and the Mediterranean coast, and high in southwestern Spain. The higher risk of transmission in the basins of the rivers Guadiana and Guadalquivir cannot be attributed exclusively to the local abundance of Cx. pipiens, but could be ascribed to the presence and abundance of Cx. perexiguus. Furthermore, this integrated analysis suggests that the WNV presents an ecological niche of its own, not fully overlapping the ones of its hosts or vector, and thus requiring particular environmental conditions to succeed in its infection cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Fernando Cuervo
- Facultad de Farmacia, Departamento de Parasitología, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, Valencia, Spain.,Laboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades, Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral (ICIVET - Litoral), Universidad Nacional del Litoral (UNL)/Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Esperanza, Santa Fe, Argentina
| | - Patricio Artigas
- Facultad de Farmacia, Departamento de Parasitología, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
| | - Santiago Mas-Coma
- Facultad de Farmacia, Departamento de Parasitología, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
| | - María Dolores Bargues
- Facultad de Farmacia, Departamento de Parasitología, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
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Hanafi-Bojd AA, Motazakker M, Vatandoost H, Dabiri F, Chavshin AR. Sindbis virus infection of mosquito species in the wetlands of northwestern Iran and modeling the probable ecological niches of SINV vectors in the country. Acta Trop 2021; 220:105952. [PMID: 33979644 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2021.105952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Revised: 04/17/2021] [Accepted: 04/30/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
Sindbis virus (SINV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) are among the most widely spread mosquito-borne viruses worldwide. Due to the key role of mosquitoes in the transmission cycle of vector-borne diseases, models such as Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) have been used in recent years to predict the environmental suitability and ecological niches of mosquito vectors. Infection of three mosquito species (Anopheles maculipennis s.l., Culex tritaeniorhynchus, and Culiseta longiareolata) with CHIKV has recently been reported in Iran. However, given the importance of vector-borne diseases in the country, there is a need for extensive studies on the infection of mosquitoes with CHIKV and SINV in different areas of the country. Accordingly, the current research was conducted to investigate the infection of mosquitoes with the two aforementioned viruses in the northwestern part of Iran and also to model the ecological niches of the vectors of these mosquito-borne viruses in the country. In the current study, 4639 mosquito specimens, consisting of 2515 adults and 2124 larvae, were collected from the wetlands of West Azerbaijan Province and identified. Ten species belonging to four genera were identified in this study. The specimens were allocated to 149 pools for the determination of infection with CHIKV and SINV. The amplification pattern of five pools comprising two mosquito species (Culex pipiens complex and Cx. Theileri) corresponded to the reference strain of SINV, and the isolates were sequenced to confirm the presence of SINV genome. No cases of CHIKV infection were found among the 149 examined mosquito pools. Data on the distribution of Cx. Pipiens complex and Cx. Theileri were mapped using ArcMap 10.5. Prediction maps of the presence probability for these species revealed that they are most likely to be found in and spread to the north, northwest, south, and southeastern areas of the country and in areas with abundant water resources. For the first time in Iran, our study investigated the presence probability of SINV vectors using ecological niche modeling. Ecological niche profiling showed that the most suitable habitats for Cx. pipiens are mainly concentrated in the north and northwestern parts of the country, whereas Cx. theileri is mostly located in the northwest and western regions. However, there were some other areas of low suitability for these two species in the country. Further studies in a broader geographical area with more species of mosquitos and the determination of infection with other mosquito-borne viruses can provide a clear understanding of the potential spread of mosquito-borne diseases in various regions of Iran.
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Abdelkrim O, Samia B, Said Z, Souad L. Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco. Parasite 2021; 28:37. [PMID: 33861197 PMCID: PMC8051322 DOI: 10.1051/parasite/2021030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2020] [Accepted: 03/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquitoes transmit several agents of diseases and the presence of different species represents a threat to animal and public health. Aedes and Culex mosquitoes are of particular concern giving their potential vector competence for Arbovirus transmission. In Morocco, the lack of detailed information related to their spatial distribution raises major concerns and hampers effective vector surveillance and control. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling, we generated prediction models for the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors (Aedes aegypti, Ae. vexans, Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus, and Culex pipiens) in Morocco, under current climatic conditions. Also, we investigated the habitat suitability for the potential occurrence and establishment of Ae. albopictus and Ae. vittatus recorded only once in the country. Prediction models for these last two species were generated considering occurrence datasets from close countries of the Mediterranean Basin, where Ae. albopictus is well established, and from a worldwide database for the case of Ae. vittatus (model transferability). With the exception of Ae. vittatus, the results identify potential habitat suitability in Morocco for all mosquitos considered. Existing areas with maximum risk of establishment and high potential distribution were mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Morocco. Our results essentially underline the assumption that Ae. albopictus, if not quickly controlled, might find suitable habitats and has the potential to become established, especially in the northwest of the country. These findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species and enhance surveillance efforts in areas identified as high risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Outammassine Abdelkrim
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Laboratory of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Medical Biology, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cadi Ayyad University PO Box 7010 40000 Marrakech Morocco
| | - Boussaa Samia
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ISPITS-Higher Institute of Nursing and Health Technology 40000 Marrakech Morocco
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Ecology and the Environment Laboratory L2E (URAC 32, CNRST ERACNERS 06), Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University 2390-40080 Marrakech Morocco
| | - Zouhair Said
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Laboratory of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Medical Biology, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cadi Ayyad University PO Box 7010 40000 Marrakech Morocco
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Laboratory of Bacteriology–Virology, Avicienne Hospital Military 40000 Marrakech Morocco
| | - Loqman Souad
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Laboratory of Microbiology and Virology, Department of Medical Biology, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cadi Ayyad University PO Box 7010 40000 Marrakech Morocco
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Bakhshi H, Fazlalipour M, Dadgar-Pakdel J, Zakeri S, Raz A, Failloux AB, Dinparast Djadid N. Developing a Vaccine to Block West Nile Virus Transmission: In Silico Studies, Molecular Characterization, Expression, and Blocking Activity of Culex pipiens mosGCTL-1. Pathogens 2021; 10:pathogens10020218. [PMID: 33671430 PMCID: PMC7921969 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens10020218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2021] [Revised: 02/04/2021] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mosquito galactose-specific C-type lectins (mosGCTLs), such as mosGCTL-1, act as ligands to facilitate the invasion of flaviviruses like West Nile virus (WNV). WNV interacts with the mosGCTL-1 of Aedes aegypti (Culicidae) and facilitates the invasion of this virus. Nevertheless, there is no data about the role of mosGCTL-1 as a transmission-blocking vaccine candidate in Culex pipiens, the most abundant Culicinae mosquito in temperate regions. METHODS Adult female Cx. pipiens mosquitoes were experimentally infected with a WNV infectious blood meal, and the effect of rabbit anti-rmosGCTL-1 antibodies on virus replication was evaluated. Additionally, in silico studies such as the prediction of protein structure, homology modeling, and molecular interactions were carried out. RESULTS We showed a 30% blocking activity of Cx. pipiens mosGCTL-1 polyclonal antibodies (compared to the 10% in the control group) with a decrease in infection rates in mosquitoes at day 5 post-infection, suggesting that there may be other proteins in the midgut of Cx. pipiens that could act as cooperative-receptors for WNV. In addition, docking results revealed that WNV binds with high affinity, to the Culex mosquito lectin receptors. CONCLUSIONS Our results do not support the idea that mosGCTL-1 of Cx. pipiens primarily interacts with WNV to promote viral infection, suggesting that other mosGCTLs may act as primary infection factors in Cx. pipiens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hasan Bakhshi
- Malaria and Vector Research Group (MVRG), Biotechnology Research Center (BRC), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (J.D.-P.); (S.Z.)
| | - Mehdi Fazlalipour
- Department of Arboviruses and Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers (National Ref Lab), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran;
| | - Javad Dadgar-Pakdel
- Malaria and Vector Research Group (MVRG), Biotechnology Research Center (BRC), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (J.D.-P.); (S.Z.)
- Trauma Research Center, Sina Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Hassan Abad Square, Imam Khomeini Avenue, Tehran 1136746911, Iran
| | - Sedigheh Zakeri
- Malaria and Vector Research Group (MVRG), Biotechnology Research Center (BRC), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (J.D.-P.); (S.Z.)
| | - Abbasali Raz
- Malaria and Vector Research Group (MVRG), Biotechnology Research Center (BRC), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (J.D.-P.); (S.Z.)
- Correspondence: (A.R.); (A.-B.F.); (N.D.D.); Tel.: +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (A.R.); +33-(0)1-40-61-36-17 (A.-B.F.); +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (N.D.D.)
| | - Anna-Bella Failloux
- Institut Pasteur, Department of Virology, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, 25 rue Dr. Roux, CEDEX 15, 75724 Paris, France
- Correspondence: (A.R.); (A.-B.F.); (N.D.D.); Tel.: +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (A.R.); +33-(0)1-40-61-36-17 (A.-B.F.); +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (N.D.D.)
| | - Navid Dinparast Djadid
- Malaria and Vector Research Group (MVRG), Biotechnology Research Center (BRC), Pasteur Institute of Iran, Pasteur Ave., Tehran 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (J.D.-P.); (S.Z.)
- Correspondence: (A.R.); (A.-B.F.); (N.D.D.); Tel.: +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (A.R.); +33-(0)1-40-61-36-17 (A.-B.F.); +98-(0)21-64-11-24-62 (N.D.D.)
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Predicting WNV Circulation in Italy Using Earth Observation Data and Extreme Gradient Boosting Model. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12183064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
West Nile Disease (WND) is one of the most spread zoonosis in Italy and Europe caused by a vector-borne virus. Its transmission cycle is well understood, with birds acting as the primary hosts and mosquito vectors transmitting the virus to other birds, while humans and horses are occasional dead-end hosts. Identifying suitable environmental conditions across large areas containing multiple species of potential hosts and vectors can be difficult. The recent and massive availability of Earth Observation data and the continuous development of innovative Machine Learning methods can contribute to automatically identify patterns in big datasets and to make highly accurate identification of areas at risk. In this paper, we investigated the West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in relation to Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Surface Soil Moisture collected during the 160 days before the infection took place, with the aim of evaluating the predictive capacity of lagged remotely sensed variables in the identification of areas at risk for WNV circulation. WNV detection in mosquitoes, birds and horses in 2017, 2018 and 2019, has been collected from the National Information System for Animal Disease Notification. An Extreme Gradient Boosting model was trained with data from 2017 and 2018 and tested for the 2019 epidemic, predicting the spatio-temporal WNV circulation two weeks in advance with an overall accuracy of 0.84. This work lays the basis for a future early warning system that could alert public authorities when climatic and environmental conditions become favourable to the onset and spread of WNV.
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Liu B, Gao X, Zheng K, Ma J, Jiao Z, Xiao J, Wang H. The potential distribution and dynamics of important vectors Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus in China under climate change scenarios: an ecological niche modelling approach. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2020; 76:3096-3107. [PMID: 32281209 DOI: 10.1002/ps.5861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2019] [Revised: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 04/12/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Intense studies have been carried out on the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases and vectors. Culex pipiens pallens and Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus are two medically concerned mosquito species in temperate and tropical areas, which serve as important disease-transmitting pests of a variety of diseases. The ongoing geographical expansion of these mosquitoes has brought an increasing threat to public health. RESULTS Based on mosquito occurrence records and high-resolution environmental layers, an ecological niche model was established to model their current and future potential distribution in China. Our model showed that the current suitable area for Cx. p. pallens is distributed in the central, eastern and northern parts of China, while Cx. p. quinquefasciatus is distributed in vast areas in southern China. Under future climate change scenarios, both species are predicted to expand their range to varying degrees and RCP 8.5 provides the largest expansion. Northward core shifts will occur in ranges of both species. Environmental variables which have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes were also revealed by our model. CONCLUSION Severe habitat expansion of vectors is likely to occur in the future 21st century. Our models mapped the high-risk areas and risk factors which needs to be paid attention. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological surveys and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Keren Zheng
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, P. R. China
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Liu B, Ma J, Jiao Z, Gao X, Xiao J, Wang H. Risk assessment for the Rift Valley fever occurrence in China: Special concern in south-west border areas. Transbound Emerg Dis 2020; 68:445-457. [PMID: 32568445 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2019] [Revised: 04/29/2020] [Accepted: 06/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease. Since its first outbreak in 1930, RVF epidemics have caused huge economic losses and public health impacts in Africa. In 2000, RVF became a disease of global concern as it spread to the Arabian Peninsula. In our study, a Geographic Information System-based risk assessment for the occurrence of Rift Valley fever in China was established by means of ecological niche modelling. Based on occurrence records (RVF records from FAO EMPRES-i, vector records from literatures and GBIF) and high-resolution environmental layers, the prediction maps of RVF occurrence probability and distribution of five potential RVF vectors in China were modelled using Maxent. An internal validation was adopted for model verification, and high AUC values were obtained (0.918 for RVF and 0.837-0.992 for vectors). By overlaying the RVF prediction map with the combined RVF vector prediction map using Fuzzy overlay tool ('AND' operator) of ArcMap 10.2, we got the first risk map of possible RVF vector transmission. This map was further overlaid with the latest livestock distribution map ('AND' operator) to generate the second risk map of possible RVF threat to domestic livestock. The south-west border provinces in China, Yunnan, Guangxi and Tibet were predicted to have a high possibility of RVF occurrence. Conditions conducive to the local amplification of RVF also exist in these areas. Temperature seasonality, mean temperature of dry season and precipitation of the driest month were considered as key environmental variables for RVF, and common environmental conditions were found conductive for vectors. It is suggested to establish proper surveillance systems in south-west border areas to minimize the possibility of RVF invasion. Our findings can serve as a valuable reference for prevention measures to be implemented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.,College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China.,College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China
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18
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Bakhshi H, Mousson L, Vazeille M, Zakeri S, Raz A, de Lamballerie X, Dinparast-Djadid N, Failloux AB. High Transmission Potential of West Nile Virus Lineage 1 for Cx. pipiens s.l. of Iran. Viruses 2020; 12:E397. [PMID: 32260215 PMCID: PMC7232300 DOI: 10.3390/v12040397] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2020] [Revised: 03/31/2020] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
: Vector competence is an important parameter in evaluating whether a species plays a role in transmission of an arbovirus. Although the protocols are similar, interpretation of results is unique given the specific interactions that exist between a mosquito population and a viral genotype. Here, we assessed the infection (IR), dissemination (DR), and transmission (TR) rates of Cx. pipiens s.l., collected from Iran, for West Nile virus (WNV) lineage 1a. We showed that Cx. pipiens s.l. mosquitoes in Iran were susceptible to WNV with IR up to 89.7%, 93.6%, and 83.9% at 7, 14, and 21 days post-infection (dpi) respectively. In addition, DR and TR reached respectively 92.3% and 75.0% at 21 dpi, and the number of viral particles delivered with saliva reached up to 1.33 × 105 particles. Therefore, an unexpected high risk of WNV dissemination in the region where Cx. pipiens s.l. mosquitoes are well established should be considered carefully and surveillance measures implemented accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hasan Bakhshi
- Malaria and Vector Research Group, Biotechnology Research Center, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran P.O. Box 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (S.Z.); (A.R.)
| | - Laurence Mousson
- Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, 75724 Paris, France; (L.M.); (M.V.)
| | - Marie Vazeille
- Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, 75724 Paris, France; (L.M.); (M.V.)
| | - Sedigheh Zakeri
- Malaria and Vector Research Group, Biotechnology Research Center, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran P.O. Box 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (S.Z.); (A.R.)
| | - Abbasali Raz
- Malaria and Vector Research Group, Biotechnology Research Center, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran P.O. Box 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (S.Z.); (A.R.)
| | - Xavier de Lamballerie
- Unité des Virus Emergents (UVE), Aix Marseille Université, IRD 190, INSERM 1207, IHU Méditerranée Infection, 13005 Marseille, France;
| | - Navid Dinparast-Djadid
- Malaria and Vector Research Group, Biotechnology Research Center, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran P.O. Box 1316943551, Iran; (H.B.); (S.Z.); (A.R.)
| | - Anna-Bella Failloux
- Institut Pasteur, Arboviruses and Insect Vectors, 75724 Paris, France; (L.M.); (M.V.)
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Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16234845. [PMID: 31810239 PMCID: PMC6926588 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16234845] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 11/26/2019] [Accepted: 11/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.
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Liu B, Jiao Z, Ma J, Gao X, Xiao J, Hayat MA, Wang H. Modelling the potential distribution of arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under current and future climate scenarios in Taiwan, China. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2019; 75:3076-3083. [PMID: 30919547 DOI: 10.1002/ps.5424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2019] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito species and is a common disease-transmitting pest in tropical areas. Various infectious arbovirus diseases can be transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of disease vectors into wider geographical areas. To better understand the current ecological niche range and possible future expansion of Ae. aegypti, an ecological niche modelling approach was adopted to predict its current and future potential habitat in Taiwan, China. RESULTS Based on observed occurrence records and environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, predictions with a high resolution of 30 arcsec (approx. 1 × 1 km) were made by our model. Ae. aegypti was predicted to expand its habitat in varying degrees out of its current niche range under different climate scenarios for the future 21st century. Winter temperature and dry season precipitation were considered as important predictors among climate variables. Croplands, pasture, forested lands and urban lands were important land-use variables. CONCLUSION Ae. aegypti is expected to establish new habitats out of its current niche range under the trend of global climate change. The extent of habitat expansion varies under different climate scenarios. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent its expansion to a broader scale. Our study has important strategic implications for mosquito surveillance and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Muhammad A Hayat
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
- Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, People's Republic of China
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Ciota AT, Keyel AC. The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses. Viruses 2019; 11:E1013. [PMID: 31683823 PMCID: PMC6893470 DOI: 10.3390/v11111013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Revised: 10/29/2019] [Accepted: 10/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander T Ciota
- Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY 12201, USA.
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA.
| | - Alexander C Keyel
- Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY 12201, USA.
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222, USA.
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Satellite Earth Observation Data in Epidemiological Modeling of Malaria, Dengue and West Nile Virus: A Scoping Review. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11161862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Earth Observation (EO) data can be leveraged to estimate environmental variables that influence the transmission cycle of the pathogens that lead to mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs). The aim of this scoping review is to examine the state-of-the-art and identify knowledge gaps on the latest methods that used satellite EO data in their epidemiological models focusing on malaria, dengue and West Nile Virus (WNV). In total, 43 scientific papers met the inclusion criteria and were considered in this review. Researchers have examined a wide variety of methodologies ranging from statistical to machine learning algorithms. A number of studies used models and EO data that seemed promising and claimed to be easily replicated in different geographic contexts, enabling the realization of systems on regional and national scales. The need has emerged to leverage furthermore new powerful modeling approaches, like artificial intelligence and ensemble modeling and explore new and enhanced EO sensors towards the analysis of big satellite data, in order to develop accurate epidemiological models and contribute to the reduction of the burden of MBDs.
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Liu B, Gao X, Ma J, Jiao Z, Xiao J, Hayat MA, Wang H. Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 664:203-214. [PMID: 30743113 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2018] [Revised: 01/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/23/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are two important mosquito species which transmit various infectious arbovirus diseases represented mainly by dengue fever. These two species of mosquito have a wide range of distribution and strong transfer capacity. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of vectors in wider geographical areas. Based on observed occurrence records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and high-resolution environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, a Maxent niche modeling approach was adopted to model the current and future distribution of both species in Mainland China. Our models provide predictions of suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios up to the 2050s. Both species were predicted to expand their niche range to varying degrees under future climate scenarios. Aedes aegypti was modeled to expand its habitat from Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan to Fujian, Jiangxi and Guizhou. Aedes albopictus was modeled to increase magnitude of distribution within its present range of northern, southwestern and southeastern coastal areas of Mainland China. Area and population exposed to mosquitoes are predicted to increase significantly. Environmental variables that have significant impact on the distribution of mosquitoes are also revealed by our model. The results of our study can be referenced in further ecological studies and will guide the development of strategies for the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Muhammad Abid Hayat
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China; Key Laboratory of the Provincial Education Department of Heilongjiang for Common Animal Disease Prevention and Treatment, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, People's Republic of China.
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Liu B, Gao X, Ma J, Jiao Z, Xiao J, Wang H. Influence of Host and Environmental Factors on the Distribution of the Japanese Encephalitis Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15091848. [PMID: 30150565 PMCID: PMC6165309 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15091848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2018] [Revised: 08/23/2018] [Accepted: 08/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Culex tritaeniorhynchus is an important vector that transmits a variety of human and animal diseases. Japanese encephalitis (JE), an endemic disease in the Asia-Pacific region, is primarily transmitted by Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Insufficient monitoring of vector mosquitoes has led to a poor understanding of the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China. To delineate the habitat of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and any host and environmental factors that affect its distribution, we used a maximum entropy modeling method to predict its distribution in China. Our models provided high resolution predictions on the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The predicted suitable habitats of the JE vector were correlated with areas of high JE incidence in parts of China. Factors driving the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in China were also revealed by our models. Furthermore, human population density and the maximum NDVI were the most important predictors in our models. Bioclimate factors and elevation also significantly impacted the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Our findings may serve as a reference for vector and disease control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Boyang Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
| | - Jun Ma
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
| | - Zhihui Jiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
| | - Jianhua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
| | - Hongbin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China.
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Rift Valley Fever in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Region. CURRENT TROPICAL MEDICINE REPORTS 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s40475-018-0165-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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26
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Alaniz AJ, Bacigalupo A, Cattan PE. Spatial quantification of the world population potentially exposed to Zika virus. Int J Epidemiol 2018; 46:966-975. [PMID: 28338754 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyw366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Zika virus is an emerging Flaviviridae virus, which has spread rapidly in the last few years. It has raised concern because it has been associated with fetus microcephaly when pregnant women are infected. The main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti , distributed in tropical areas. Methods Niche modelling techniques were used to estimate the potential distribution area of A. aegypti. This was overlapped with human population density, determining areas of potential transmission risk worldwide. Afterwards, we quantified the population at risk according to risk level. Results The vector transmission risk is distributed mainly in Asia and Oceania on the shores of the Indian Ocean. In America, the risk concentrates in the Atlantic coast of South America and in the Caribbean Sea shores in Central and North America. In Africa, the major risk is concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Central and South Africa. The world population under high and very high risk levels includes 2.261 billion people. Conclusions These results illustrate Zika virus risk at the global level and provide maps to target the prevention and control measures especially in areas with higher risk, in countries with less sanitation and poorer resources. Many countries without previous vector reports could become active transmission zones in the future, so vector surveillance should be implemented or reinforced in these areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto J Alaniz
- Laboratorio de Ecología de Ambientes Fragmentados, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.,Laboratorio de Ecología de Ecosistemas, Departamento de Recursos Naturales Renovables, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Antonella Bacigalupo
- Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
| | - Pedro E Cattan
- Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
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Rossi G, Karki S, Smith RL, Brown WM, Ruiz MO. The spread of mosquito-borne viruses in modern times: A spatio-temporal analysis of dengue and chikungunya. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2018; 26:113-125. [PMID: 30390927 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2018.06.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2017] [Revised: 01/12/2018] [Accepted: 06/08/2018] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Since the 1970s, mosquito-borne pathogens have spread to previously disease-free areas, as well as causing increased illness in endemic areas. In particular, dengue and chikungunya viruses, transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and secondarily by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, represent a threat for up to a third of the world population, and are a growing public health concern. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal factors related to the occurrences of historic dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in 76 nations focused geographically on the Indian Ocean, with outbreak data from 1959 to 2009. First, we describe the historical spatial and temporal patterns of outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in the focal nations. Second, we use a boosted regression tree approach to assess the statistical relationships of nations' concurrent outbreak occurrences and annual occurrences with their spatial proximity to prior infections and climatic and socio-economic characteristics. We demonstrate that higher population density and shorter distances among nations with outbreaks are the dominant factors that characterize both dengue and chikungunya outbreaks. In conclusion, our analysis provides crucial insights, which can be applied to improve nations' surveillance and preparedness for future vector-borne disease epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gianluigi Rossi
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA.
| | - Surendra Karki
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Rebecca Lee Smith
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - William Marshall Brown
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Marilyn O'Hara Ruiz
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S Lincoln Ave, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
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Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:255. [PMID: 29673389 PMCID: PMC5907742 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2017] [Accepted: 04/05/2018] [Indexed: 01/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes in the forests of Africa. Subsequently the virus jumped out of this ancestral cycle into a human-endemic transmission cycle vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist in Africa and continue to spill over into humans, creating the potential for new CHIKV strains to enter human-endemic transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary to delineate the distributions of the sylvatic mosquito vectors of CHIKV, to identify the environmental factors that shape these distributions, and to determine the association of mosquito presence with key drivers of virus spillover, including mosquito and CHIKV abundance. We therefore modeled the distribution of seven CHIKV mosquito vectors over two sequential rainy seasons in Kédougou, Senegal using Maxent. Methods Mosquito data were collected in fifty sites distributed in five land cover classes across the study area. Environmental data representing land cover, topographic, and climatic factors were included in the models. Models were compared and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation of model outputs with abundance of individual mosquito species as well as CHIKV-positive mosquito pools was tested. Results Fourteen models were produced and evaluated; the environmental variables most strongly associated with mosquito distributions were distance to large patches of forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven models were positively correlated with mosquito abundance and one (Aedes taylori) was consistently, positively correlated with CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Eight models predicted high relative occurrence rates of mosquitoes near the villages of Tenkoto and Ngary, the areas with the highest frequency of CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Conclusions Of the environmental factors considered here, landscape fragmentation and configuration had the strongest influence on mosquito distributions. Of the mosquito species modeled, the distribution of Ae. taylori correlated most strongly with abundance of CHIKV, suggesting that presence of this species will be a useful predictor of sylvatic CHIKV presence. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Ukawuba I, Shaman J. Association of spring-summer hydrology and meteorology with human West Nile virus infection in West Texas, USA, 2002-2016. Parasit Vectors 2018; 11:224. [PMID: 29618375 PMCID: PMC5885460 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-2781-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in the Western Hemisphere has motivated research into the processes contributing to the incidence and persistence of the disease in the region. Meteorology and hydrology are fundamental determinants of vector-borne disease transmission dynamics of a region. The availability of water influences the population dynamics of vector and host, while temperature impacts vector growth rates, feeding habits, and disease transmission potential. Characterization of the temporal pattern of environmental factors influencing WNV risk is crucial to broaden our understanding of local transmission dynamics and to inform efforts of control and surveillance. Methods We used hydrologic, meteorological and WNV data from west Texas (2002–2016) to analyze the relationship between environmental conditions and annual human WNV infection. A Bayesian model averaging framework was used to evaluate the association of monthly environmental conditions with WNV infection. Results Findings indicate that wet conditions in the spring combined with dry and cool conditions in the summer are associated with increased annual WNV cases. Bayesian multi-model inference reveals monthly means of soil moisture, specific humidity and temperature to be the most important variables among predictors tested. Environmental conditions in March, June, July and August were the leading predictors in the best-fitting models. Conclusions The results significantly link soil moisture and temperature in the spring and summer to WNV transmission risk. Wet spring in association with dry and cool summer was the temporal pattern best-describing WNV, regardless of year. Our findings also highlight that soil moisture may be a stronger predictor of annual WNV transmission than rainfall.
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Affiliation(s)
- Israel Ukawuba
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th, New York, NY, 10032, USA.
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th, New York, NY, 10032, USA
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30
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Benelli G. Mating behavior of the West Nile virus vector Culex pipiens - role of behavioral asymmetries. Acta Trop 2018; 179:88-95. [PMID: 29288628 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.12.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2017] [Revised: 12/11/2017] [Accepted: 12/23/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Culex pipiens is a vector of West Nile, Rift Valley fever, Japanese encephalitis and Usutu viruses. In agreement with the criteria of Integrated Vector Management, several research efforts have been devoted to develop behavior-based control tools to fight mosquito vectors. However, our knowledge of mosquito mating biology and sexual communication is still patchy. Despite the high relevance of C. pipiens as a vector of medical and veterinary importance, no studies on its mating behavior and the factors routing mating success have been conducted. In this study, I quantified the mating behavior of an Italian strain of C. pipiens, evaluating the male mating success and its potential connections with population-level lateralized traits occurring during the mating sequence. Mean copula duration exceeded 100 s. Courting males can be straightly accepted by the female after the first genital contact (38.95%), as well as after some rejection kicks performed by females with hind legs (17.89%). No copula duration differences were detected between these two cases. The overall male mating success in laboratory conditions was 56.84%. The females performing rejection kicks preferentially used right hind legs at population-level. This was confirmed over four subsequent testing phases. The number of kicks per rejection event and the rejection success were higher when right legs are used over left ones, showing a functional advantage linked with the employ of right legs. Overall, the present study represents the first quantification of the courtship and mating behavior of C. pipiens. Data on male mating success and the role population-level lateralized mating traits provides basic biological knowledge that can be helpful to optimize autocidal and behavior-based control tools.
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Napp S, Chevalier V, Busquets N, Calistri P, Casal J, Attia M, Elbassal R, Hosni H, Farrag H, Hassan N, Tawfik R, Abd Elkader S, Bayomy S. Understanding the legal trade of cattle and camels and the derived risk of Rift Valley Fever introduction into and transmission within Egypt. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12:e0006143. [PMID: 29351273 PMCID: PMC5792020 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Revised: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/29/2017] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne zoonosis, which may cause significant losses for the livestock sector and have serious public health implications. Egypt has been repeatedly affected by RVF epidemics, mainly associated to the importation of animals from sub-Saharan countries, where the disease is endemic. The objective of our study was the improvement of the surveillance and control strategies implemented in Egypt. In order to do that, first we evaluated the legal trade of live animals into and within Egypt. Then, we assessed the risk of Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) transmission within the country using a multi-criteria evaluation approach. Finally, we combined the animal trade and the risk of RVFV transmission data to identify those areas and periods in which the introduction of RVFV is more likely. Our results indicate that the main risk of RVFV introduction is posed by the continuous flow of large number of camels coming from Sudan. The risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is restricted to the areas surrounding the Nile river, and does not vary significantly throughout the year. Imported camels are taken to quarantines, where the risk of RVFV transmission by vectors is generally low. Then, they are taken to animal markets or slaughterhouses, many located in populated areas, where the risk of RVFV transmission to animals or humans is much higher. The measures currently implemented (quarantines, vaccination or testing) seem to have a limited effect in reducing the risk of RVFV introduction, and therefore other (risk-based) surveillance strategies are proposed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Paolo Calistri
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy
- IZSAM, Teramo, Italy
| | - Jordi Casal
- CReSA-IRTA, Barcelona, Spain
- UAB, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mohamed Attia
- Central Administration of Preventive Medicine. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Rehab Elbassal
- Department of Epidemiology. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Heba Hosni
- Department of Epidemiology. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hatem Farrag
- Quarantine & Inspection Department. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Noura Hassan
- Quarantine & Inspection Department. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Rasha Tawfik
- Quarantine & Inspection Department. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Sohair Abd Elkader
- Central Administration of Preventive Medicine. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Shahin Bayomy
- Department of Epidemiology. Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Cairo, Egypt
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Filatov S. Little pigeons can carry great messages: potential distribution and ecology of Uranotaenia (Pseudoficalbia) unguiculata Edwards, 1913 (Diptera: Culicidae), a lesser-known mosquito species from the Western Palaearctic. Parasit Vectors 2017; 10:464. [PMID: 29017545 PMCID: PMC5634949 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2410-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2017] [Accepted: 09/27/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Uranotaenia unguiculata is a Palaearctic mosquito species with poorly known distribution and ecology. This study is aimed at filling the gap in our understanding of the species potential distribution and its environmental requirements through a species distribution modelling (SDM) exercise. Furthermore, aspects of the mosquito ecology that may be relevant to the epidemiology of certain zoonotic vector-borne diseases in Europe are discussed. RESULTS A maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach has been applied to predict the potential distribution of Ur. unguiculata in the Western Palaearctic. Along with the high accuracy and predictive power, the model reflects well the known species distribution and predicts as highly suitable some areas where the occurrence of the species is hitherto unknown. CONCLUSIONS To our knowledge, the potential distribution of a mosquito species from the genus Uranotaenia is modelled for the first time. Provided that Ur. unguiculata is a widely-distributed species, and some pathogens of zoonotic concern have been detected in this mosquito on several occasions, the question regarding its host associations and possible epidemiological role warrants further investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Serhii Filatov
- National Scientific Center Institute of Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkiv, Ukraine.
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Mweya CN, Mboera LEG, Kimera SI. Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2017; 97:109-114. [PMID: 28719317 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clement N Mweya
- Tukuyu Research Centre, National Institute for Medical Research, Tukuyu, Tanzania
| | - Leonard E G Mboera
- Headquarters, National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es salaam, Tanzania
| | - Sharadhuli I Kimera
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
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Helmy YA, El-Adawy H, Abdelwhab EM. A Comprehensive Review of Common Bacterial, Parasitic and Viral Zoonoses at the Human-Animal Interface in Egypt. Pathogens 2017; 6:pathogens6030033. [PMID: 28754024 PMCID: PMC5617990 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens6030033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2017] [Revised: 07/17/2017] [Accepted: 07/19/2017] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Egypt has a unique geographical location connecting the three old-world continents Africa, Asia and Europe. It is the country with the highest population density in the Middle East, Northern Africa and the Mediterranean basin. This review summarizes the prevalence, reservoirs, sources of human infection and control regimes of common bacterial, parasitic and viral zoonoses in animals and humans in Egypt. There is a gap of knowledge conerning the epidemiology of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal interface in different localities in Egypt. Some zoonotic agents are “exotic” for Egypt (e.g., MERS-CoV and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus), others are endemic (e.g., Brucellosis, Schistosomiasis and Avian influenza). Transboundary transmission of emerging pathogens from and to Egypt occurred via different routes, mainly importation/exportation of apparently healthy animals or migratory birds. Control of the infectious agents and multidrug resistant bacteria in the veterinary sector is on the frontline for infection control in humans. The implementation of control programs significantly decreased the prevalence of some zoonoses, such as schistosomiasis and fascioliasis, in some localities within the country. Sustainable awareness, education and training targeting groups at high risk (veterinarians, farmers, abattoir workers, nurses, etc.) are important to lessen the burden of zoonotic diseases among Egyptians. There is an urgent need for collaborative surveillance and intervention plans for the control of these diseases in Egypt.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yosra A Helmy
- Food Animal Health Research Program, Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, The Ohio State University, Wooster, OH 44691, USA.
- Department of Animal Hygiene, Zoonoses and Animal Ethology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Suez Canal University, 41511 Ismailia, Egypt.
| | - Hosny El-Adawy
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Bacterial Infections and Zoonoses, Naumburger Str. 96a, 07743 Jena, Germany.
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Kafrelsheikh University, 335516 Kafrelsheikh, Egypt.
| | - Elsayed M Abdelwhab
- Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Suedufer 10, 17493 Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
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Youssef SR, Eissa DG, Abo-Shady RA, Aly Fouad NT, Kattab DK, Fathey H, Abdullaha Elewa AA, Reda DM. Seroprevalence of anti-WNV IgG antibodies and WNV-RNA in Egyptian blood donors. J Med Virol 2017; 89:1323-1329. [PMID: 27603170 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.24682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/31/2016] [Indexed: 01/22/2023]
Abstract
Transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) from asymptomatic donors has been reported during blood transfusions and organ transplants in humans. In this work, we aimed to investigate the presence of WNV antibody and WNV RNA in blood donors to evaluate the sero-prevalence of WNV and risk for WNV transmission. One hundred and sixty blood donors were tested for the presence of anti-WNV IgG by ELISA and for WNVs 1 and 2 RNA by RT-PCR. About 55% of blood donors were seropositive for WNV IgG antibodies, with significantly higher percentage of positive donors coming from rural areas and Nile Delta region compared to other donors. Using RT-PCR all donors were negative for viral RNA of both WNV lineages 1 and 2. High sero-prevelance of WNV antibodies in asymptomatic blood donors denotes endemicity of the WNV in Egypt and points to the importance of routine screening of blood donors for WNV RNA. On the other hand the absence of WNV RNA by RT-PCR indicates apparent low risk of the blood products as regards WNV transmission. Further studies into significance of WNV seronegativity among Rh negative donors and into the use of WNV seropositive blood in prophylaxis or treatment of WNV neuroinvasive disease are recommended. J. Med. Virol. 89:1323-1329, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
- Soha R Youssef
- Clinical Pathology Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Doaa G Eissa
- Clinical Pathology Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | | | - Dina K Kattab
- Clinical Pathology Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | - Hanaa Fathey
- Internal Medicine Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
| | | | - Doaa M Reda
- Dar el Salam Hospital, Ministry of Health, Cairo, Egypt
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Humphrey JM, Cleton NB, Reusken CBEM, Glesby MJ, Koopmans MPG, Abu-Raddad LJ. Dengue in the Middle East and North Africa: A Systematic Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0005194. [PMID: 27926925 PMCID: PMC5142774 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2016] [Accepted: 11/17/2016] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue virus (DENV) infection is widespread and its disease burden has increased in past decades. However, little is known about the epidemiology of dengue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Methodology / Principal Findings Following Cochrane Collaboration guidelines and reporting our findings following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed available records across MENA describing dengue occurrence in humans (prevalence studies, incidence studies, and outbreak reports), occurrence of suitable vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), and DENV vector infection rates. We identified 105 human prevalence measures in 13 of 24 MENA countries; 81 outbreaks reported from 9 countries from 1941–2015; and reports of Ae. aegypti and/or Ae. albopictus occurrence in 15 countries. The majority of seroprevalence studies were reported from the Red Sea region and Pakistan, with multiple studies indicating >20% DENV seroprevalence in general populations (median 25%, range 0–62%) in these subregions. Fifty percent of these studies were conducted prior to 1990. Multiple studies utilized assays susceptible to serologic cross-reactions and 5% of seroprevalence studies utilized viral neutralization testing. There was considerable heterogeneity in study design and outbreak reporting, as well as variability in subregional study coverage, study populations, and laboratory methods used for diagnosis. Conclusions / Significance DENV seroprevalence in the MENA is high among some populations in the Red Sea region and Pakistan, while recent outbreaks in these subregions suggest increasing incidence of DENV which may be driven by a variety of ecologic and social factors. However, there is insufficient study coverage to draw conclusions about Aedes or DENV presence in multiple MENA countries. These findings illustrate the epidemiology of DENV in the MENA while revealing priorities for DENV surveillance and Aedes control. Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted flavivirus whose global distribution and disease incidence has increased in recent decades. In the Middle East and North Africa, the epidemiology of dengue remains poorly characterized despite increasing reports of outbreaks and transmission in new areas. In order to understand the evidence supporting the epidemiology of this virus in the region and the areas in need of further research, we conducted a systematic review of studies reporting human prevalence, incidence, and infection rates in the virus’ main mosquito vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Among the studies identified, the Red Sea subregion and Pakistan reported the highest seroprevalence estimates for dengue. However, we encountered substantial heterogeneity in the distribution, quality, and quantity of published studies. These findings inform future research and surveillance priorities for DENV in the MENA region.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M. Humphrey
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Natalie B. Cleton
- Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | | | - Marshall J. Glesby
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Marion P. G. Koopmans
- Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Laith J. Abu-Raddad
- Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, New York, New York, United States of America
- Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
- College of Public Health, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Education City, Doha, Qatar
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Samy AM, Elaagip AH, Kenawy MA, Ayres CFJ, Peterson AT, Soliman DE. Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of the Mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, Vector of West Nile Virus and Lymphatic Filariasis. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0163863. [PMID: 27695107 PMCID: PMC5047650 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2016] [Accepted: 09/15/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Rapid emergence of most vector-borne diseases (VBDs) may be associated with range expansion of vector populations. Culex quinquefasciatus Say 1823 is a potential vector of West Nile virus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, and lymphatic filariasis. We estimated the potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus under both current and future climate conditions. The present potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus showed high suitability across low-latitude parts of the world, reflecting the current distribution of the species. Suitable conditions were identified also in narrow zones of North Africa and Western Europe. Model transfers to future conditions showed a potential distribution similar to that under present-day conditions, although with higher suitability in southern Australia. Highest stability with changing climate was between 30°S and 30°N. The areas present high agreement among diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future, but differed in anticipating potential for distribution in North and Central Africa, southern Asia, central USA, and southeastern Europe. Highest disparity in model predictions across representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was in Saudi Arabia and Europe. The model predictions allow anticipation of changing distributional potential of the species in coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdallah M. Samy
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo 11566, Egypt
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Arwa H. Elaagip
- Department of Parasitology and Medical Entomology, Faculty of Medical Laboratory Sciences, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan
| | - Mohamed A. Kenawy
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo 11566, Egypt
| | - Constância F. J. Ayres
- Entomology Department, Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Recife-PE, Brazil
| | - A. Townsend Peterson
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, United States of America
| | - Doaa E. Soliman
- Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Abbassia, Cairo 11566, Egypt
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Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0162649. [PMID: 27681327 PMCID: PMC5040426 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0162649] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2016] [Accepted: 08/28/2016] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Dengue is the second most important vector-borne disease of humans globally after malaria. Incidence of dengue infections has dramatically increased recently, potentially due to changing climate. Climate projections models predict increases in average annual temperature, precipitation and extreme events in the future. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of changing climate on distribution of dengue vectors in relation to epidemic risk areas in Tanzania. Methods/Findings We used ecological niche models that incorporated presence-only infected Aedes aegypti data co-occurrence with dengue virus to estimate potential distribution of epidemic risk areas. Model input data on infected Ae. aegypti was collected during the May to June 2014 epidemic in Dar es Salaam. Bioclimatic predictors for current and future projections were also used as model inputs. Model predictions indicated that habitat suitability for infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue virus in current scenarios is highly localized in the coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga and Zanzibar. Models indicate that areas of Kigoma, Ruvuma, Lindi, and those around Lake Victoria are also at risk. Projecting to 2020, we show that risk emerges in Mara, Arusha, Kagera and Manyara regions, but disappears in parts of Morogoro, Ruvuma and near Lake Nyasa. In 2050 climate scenario, the predicted habitat suitability of infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue shifted towards the central and north-eastern parts with intensification in areas around all major lakes. Generally, model findings indicated that the coastal regions would remain at high risk for dengue epidemic through 2050. Conclusion/Significance Models incorporating climate change scenarios to predict emerging risk areas for dengue epidemics in Tanzania show that the anticipated risk is immense and results help guiding public health policy decisions on surveillance and control of dengue epidemics. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt control and prevention strategies.
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Sindato C, Stevens KB, Karimuribo ED, Mboera LEG, Paweska JT, Pfeiffer DU. Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0005002. [PMID: 27654268 PMCID: PMC5031441 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2016] [Accepted: 08/24/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. MATERIALS AND METHODS Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calvin Sindato
- National Institute for Medical Research, Tabora, Tanzania
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
- Southern African Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance, Morogoro, Tanzania
- * E-mail:
| | - Kim B. Stevens
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Department of Production & Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, London, United Kingdom
| | - Esron D. Karimuribo
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania
- Southern African Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance, Morogoro, Tanzania
| | | | - Janusz T. Paweska
- Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, of the National Health Laboratory Service, Sandringham, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Dirk U. Pfeiffer
- Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Department of Production & Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, London, United Kingdom
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West Nile virus in Tunisia, 2014: First isolation from mosquitoes. Acta Trop 2016; 159:106-10. [PMID: 27038557 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.03.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2015] [Revised: 03/29/2016] [Accepted: 03/30/2016] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Several outbreaks of human West Nile virus (WNV) infections were reported in Tunisia during the last two decades. Serological studies on humans as well as on equine showed intensive circulation of WNV in Tunisia. However, no virus screening of mosquitoes for WNV has been performed in Tunisia. In the present study, we collected mosquito samples from Central Tunisia to be examined for the presence of flaviviruses. A total of 102 Culex pipiens mosquitoes were collected in September 2014 from Central Tunisia. Mosquitoes were pooled according to the collection site, date and sex with a maximum of 5 specimens per pool and tested for the presence of flaviviruses by conventional reverse transcription heminested PCR and by a specific West Nile virus real time reverse transcription PCR. Of a total of 21 pools tested, 7 were positive for WNV and no other flavivirus could be evidenced in mosquito pools. In addition, WNV was isolated on Vero cells. Phylogenetic analysis showed that recent Tunisian WNV strains belong to lineage 1 WNV and are closely related to the Tunisian strain 1997 (PAH 001). This is the first detection and isolation of WNV from mosquitoes in Tunisia. Some areas of Tunisia are at high risk for human WNV infections. WNV is likely to cause future sporadic and foreseeable outbreaks. Therefore, it is of major epidemiological importance to set up an entomological surveillance as an early alert system. Timely detection of WNV should prompt vector control to prevent future outbreaks. In addition, education of people to protect themselves from mosquito bites is of major epidemiological importance as preventive measure against WNV infection.
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Fuller DO, Alimi T, Herrera S, Beier JC, Quiñones ML. Spatial association between malaria vector species richness and malaria in Colombia. Acta Trop 2016; 158:197-200. [PMID: 26970373 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2015] [Revised: 02/12/2016] [Accepted: 03/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Malaria transmission in Colombia is highly variable in space and time. Using a species distribution model, we mapped potential distribution of five vector species including Anopheles albimanus, Anopheles calderoni, Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles neivai, and Anopheles nuneztovari in five Departments of Colombia where malaria transmission remains problematic. We overlaid the range maps of the five species to reveal areas of sympatry and related per-pixel species richness to mean annual parasite index (API) for 2011-2014 mapped by municipality (n = 287). The relationship between mean number of vector species per municipality and API was evaluated using a Poisson regression, which revealed a highly significant relationship between species richness and API (p = 0 for Wald Chi-Square statistic). The results suggest that areas of relatively high transmission in Colombia typically contain higher number of vector species than areas with unstable transmission and that future elimination strategies should account for vector species richness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Douglas O Fuller
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| | - Temitope Alimi
- Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA
| | | | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Martha L Quiñones
- Department of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia
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Alimi TO, Fuller DO, Quinones ML, Xue RD, Herrera SV, Arevalo-Herrera M, Ulrich JN, Qualls WA, Beier JC. Prospects and recommendations for risk mapping to improve strategies for effective malaria vector control interventions in Latin America. Malar J 2015; 14:519. [PMID: 26694047 PMCID: PMC4689006 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-015-1052-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2015] [Accepted: 12/12/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
With malaria control in Latin America firmly established in most countries and a growing number of these countries in the pre-elimination phase, malaria elimination appears feasible. A review of the literature indicates that malaria elimination in this region will be difficult without locally tailored strategies for vector control, which depend on more research on vector ecology, genetics and behavioural responses to environmental changes, such as those caused by land cover alterations, and human population movements. An essential way to bridge the knowledge gap and improve vector control is through risk mapping. Malaria risk maps based on statistical and knowledge-based modelling can elucidate the links between environmental factors and malaria vectors, explain interactions between environmental changes and vector dynamics, and provide a heuristic to demonstrate how the environment shapes malaria transmission. To increase the utility of risk mapping in guiding vector control activities, definitions of malaria risk for mapping purposes must be standardized. The maps must also possess appropriate scale and resolution in order to become essential tools in integrated vector management (IVM), so that planners can target areas in greatest need of control measures. Fully integrating risk mapping into vector control programmes will make interventions more evidence-based, making malaria elimination more attainable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Temitope O Alimi
- Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| | - Douglas O Fuller
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| | - Martha L Quinones
- Department of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
| | - Rui-De Xue
- Anastasia Mosquito Control District, 500 Old Beach Road, St. Augustine, FL, USA.
| | - Socrates V Herrera
- Centro de Investigacion Cientifica Caucaseco, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia. .,School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Myriam Arevalo-Herrera
- Centro de Investigacion Cientifica Caucaseco, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia. .,School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Jill N Ulrich
- Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
| | - Whitney A Qualls
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
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Alimi TO, Fuller DO, Qualls WA, Herrera SV, Arevalo-Herrera M, Quinones ML, Lacerda MVG, Beier JC. Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population. Parasit Vectors 2015; 8:431. [PMID: 26289677 PMCID: PMC4546039 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-015-1033-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2015] [Accepted: 08/05/2015] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts. Methods Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent. Results Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km2 of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km2 by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution. Conclusion As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1033-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Temitope O Alimi
- Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA.
| | - Douglas O Fuller
- Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA.
| | - Whitney A Qualls
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA.
| | - Socrates V Herrera
- Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco, Cali, Colombia. .,School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Myriam Arevalo-Herrera
- Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco, Cali, Colombia. .,School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia.
| | - Martha L Quinones
- Department of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
| | - Marcus V G Lacerda
- Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. .,Instituto de Pesquisa Leônidas & Maria Deane (FIOCRUZ Amazonas), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.
| | - John C Beier
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA.
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