Epidemiology and timing of seasonal influenza epidemics in the Asia-Pacific region, 2010-2017: implications for influenza vaccination programs

Seasonal distribution and upsurge of respiratory viruses among indigenous tribes with ILI and SARI in a far-flung Car Nicobar Island

BACKGROUND

Respiratory viral illnesses among children are a prominent cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The aim of this study is to understand the seasonal pattern and surge of respiratory viruses among the Nicobarese tribe.

METHODS

Respiratory specimens were collected from both ARI and SARI cases attended the BJR district hospital in Car Nicobar Island, India, between 2021 and 2022. Respiratory viruses were identified from the specimens by using the qRT-PCR assay. Meteorological parameters were collected and evaluated using Microsoft Excel and SPSS 21. The significant association between the surge of respiratory viruses and each climatic parameter was evaluated.

RESULTS

In this hospital-based cross-sectional study, 471 ILI cases were enrolled, and 209 of these were positive for respiratory viral infections. Of these respiratory virus infections, 201 (96.2%) were infected with a single respiratory virus infection, and 8 (3.8%) had mixed viral infections. Fever, cough, and chills were the most common symptoms of respiratory illness among this indigenous population. There was a significant link between respiratory viruses and influenza-like illness in children (below 5 years and 6 to 15 years).

CONCLUSION

This prevalence study revealed that viral respiratory infections were more common in children than adults. Among these respiratory viruses, respiratory syncytial virus A (RSV) and influenza B virus were predominantly reported among tribal children up to age five years. In the year 2021, these viruses were recorded frequently during the winter season. Climate factors such as high humidity, high precipitation, moderate temperature, and moderate rainfall are found to be correlated with respiratory viral infections. This study implicates important information for preventing a further outbreak of respiratory viral infections in Car Nicobar Island.

Clinical Presentation, Risk Factors, and Comparison of Laboratory Diagnostics for Seasonal Influenza Virus Among Cambodians From 2007 to 2020

Background

Despite its global significance, challenges associated with understanding the epidemiology and accurately detecting, measuring, and characterizing the true burden of seasonal influenza remain in many resource-poor settings.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in Cambodia at 28 health facilities between 2007 and 2020 utilizing passive surveillance data of patients presenting with acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) to describe the prevalence of influenza A and B and characterize associated risk factors and symptoms using a questionnaire. A comparison of rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) results was also conducted.

Results

Of 30 586 total participants, 5634 (18.4%) tested positive for either influenza A or B, with 3557 (11.6%) positive for influenza A and 2288 (7.5%) positive for influenza B during the study. Influenza A and B were strongly associated with the rainy season (odds ratio [OR], 2.30; P < .001) and being from an urban area (OR, 1.45; P < .001). Analysis of individual symptoms identified cough (OR, 2.8; P < .001), chills (OR, 1.4; P < .001), and sore throat (OR, 1.4; P < .001) as having the strongest positive associations with influenza among patients with AUFI. Analysis comparing RIDTs and rRT-PCR calculated the overall sensitivity of rapid tests to be 0.492 (95% CI, 0.479-0.505) and specificity to be 0.993 (95% CI, 0.992-0.994) for both influenza type A and B.

Conclusions

Findings from this 14-year study include describing the epidemiology of seasonal influenza over a prolonged time period and identifying key risk factors and clinical symptoms associated with infection; we also demonstrate the poor sensitivity of RIDTs in Cambodia.

Pertussis seasonal variation in Northern Vietnam: the evidence from a tertiary hospital

BACKGROUND

Pertussis is a highly contagious and dangerous respiratory disease that threatens children's health in many countries, including Vietnam, despite vaccine coverage. From 2015 to 2018, Vietnam experienced an increasing number of pertussis patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the trend and examine the seasonal variations of pertussis in North Vietnam.

METHODS

Data were collected from medical records of all under-5-year-old inpatients admitted to the National Children's Hospital in Hanoi, Vietnam (VNCH) 2015-2018. A descriptive analysis was performed to describe the distribution of incident cases by year and season. Linear multivariable regression was conducted to investigate the association between the incidence of cases and seasonality adjusted by age and vaccination status.

RESULTS

We identified 1063 laboratory-confirmed patients during 2015-2018, including 247 (23.2%) severe patients. The number of pertussis patients admitted to VNCH per 1000 hospitalizations was 3.2 in 2015, compared to 1.9, 3.1, and 2.1 in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. Outbreaks occurred biennially; however, there was no significant difference in the number of severe patients over this period. Most cases occurred in the hot season (509 patients, or nearly half of the study population). With the adjustment of the vaccination rate and average age, the risk of pertussis-associated hospitalization in the mild season and the hot season was 21% (95% CI [0.12; 0.3]) and 15% (95% CI [0.05; 0.25]) higher than that in the warm season, respectively. The rate of hospitalizations was high in the mild season (28.9%) and the warm season (30.8%), nearly twice as much as that in the hot season; nevertheless, the death rate was only striking high in the mild season, about 5-6 times as much as those in the other seasons.

CONCLUSION

The pertussis incidence in Northern Vietnam varied between seasons, peaking in the hot season (April-July). However, severe patients and deaths increased in the mild season (December-March). Interventions, for example, communication activities on pertussis and vaccination, are of immense importance in lowering the prevalence of pertussis. In addition, early diagnoses and early warnings performed by health professionals should be encouraged.

Influenza: seasonality and travel-related considerations

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

This review aims to summarize the transmission patterns of influenza, its seasonality in different parts of the globe, air travel- and cruise ship-related influenza infections and interventions to reduce transmission.

KEY FINDINGS

The seasonality of influenza varies globally, with peak periods occurring mainly between October and April in the northern hemisphere (NH) and between April and October in the southern hemisphere (SH) in temperate climate zones. However, influenza seasonality is significantly more variable in the tropics. Influenza is one of the most common travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases and can be contracted during travel, such as during a cruise or through air travel. Additionally, travellers can come into contact with people from regions with ongoing influenza transmission. Current influenza immunization schedules in the NH and SH leave individuals susceptible during their respective spring and summer months if they travel to the other hemisphere during that time.

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

The differences in influenza seasonality between hemispheres have substantial implications for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of travellers. Health care providers should be aware of influenza activity when patients report travel plans, and they should provide alerts and advise on prevention, diagnostic and treatment options. To mitigate the risk of travel-related influenza, interventions include antivirals for self-treatment (in combination with the use of rapid self-tests), extending the shelf life of influenza vaccines to enable immunization during the summer months for international travellers and allowing access to the influenza vaccine used in the opposite hemisphere as a travel-related vaccine. With the currently available vaccines, the most important preventive measure involves optimizing the seasonal influenza vaccination. It is also imperative that influenza is recognized as a travel-related illness among both travellers and health care professionals.

Behavioral changes of preventive activities of influenza among children in satellite cities of a metropolitan area of Tokyo, Japan, by the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

In children in a metropolitan area of Tokyo, Japan, behavioral change and influenza infection associated with the frequency of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) was assessed from the 2018-2019 season (Preseason) and the 2020-2021 season (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19] season).

METHODS

We conducted an exclusive survey among children attending preschool, elementary school, and junior high school in the Toda and Warabi regions, Japan, during the 2018-2019 (Preseason, distributed via mail) and 2020-2021 seasons (COVID-19 season, conducted online). The proportion of preventive activities (hand washing, face mask-wearing, and vaccination) was compared in the Preseason with that of the COVID-19 season. The multivariate logistic regression model was further applied to calculate the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for influenza infection associated with NPI frequency (hand washing and face mask wearing) in each Preseason and COVID-19 season.

RESULTS

The proportion of vaccinated children who carried out hand washing and face mask wearing was remarkably higher during the COVID-19 season (48.8%) than in the Preseason (18.2%). A significant influenza infection reduction was observed among children who washed hands and wore face masks simultaneously (AOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99; P = 0.033).

CONCLUSIONS

A strong interest and performance in the intensive measures for the prevention of influenza under the COVID-19 pandemic was demonstrated. Positive association was observed from a combination of NPI, hand washing, and face mask-wearing and influenza infection. This study's findings could help in activities or preventive measures against influenza and other communicable diseases in children.

Decentralized systems for the treatment of antimicrobial compounds released from hospital aquatic wastes

In many developing countries, untreated hospital effluents are discharged and treated simultaneously with municipal wastewater. However, if the hospital effluents are not treated separately, they pose concerning health risks due to the possible transport of the antimicrobial genes and microbes in the environment. Such effluent is considered as a point source for a number of potentially infectious microorganisms, waste antimicrobial compounds and other contaminants that could promote antimicrobial resistance development. The removal of these contaminants prior to discharge reduces the exposure of antimicrobials to the environment and this should lower the risk of superbug development. At an effluent discharge site, suitable pre-treatment of wastewater containing antimicrobials could maximise the ecological impact with potentially reduced risk to human health. In addressing these points, this paper reviews the applications of decentralized treatment systems toward reducing the concentration of antimicrobials in wastewater. The most commonly used techniques in decentralized wastewater treatment systems for onsite removal of antimicrobials were discussed and evidence suggests that hybrid techniques should be more useful for the efficient removal of antimicrobials. It is concluded that alongside the cooperation of administration departments, health industries, water treatment authorities and general public, decentralized treatment technology can efficiently enhance the removal of antimicrobial compounds, thereby decreasing the concentration of contaminants released to the environment that could pose risks to human and ecological health due to development of antimicrobial resistance in microbes.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of influenza virus infection in hospitalized children with acute respiratory infections in Sri Lanka

Influenza viruses (Inf-V) are an important cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI) in children. This study was undertaken to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of Inf-V infections in a sample of hospitalized children with ARI. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) from 500 children between 1 month to 5 years old with symptoms of ARI were collected at the Teaching Hospital Kegalle Sri Lanka From May 2016 to June 2018, NPAs were tested for influenza A (Inf-A) and B (Inf-B) viruses, human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV), human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) 1–3 using an immunofluorescence assay. The Inf-V were then subtyped using a multiplex RT-PCR. Inf-V were detected in 10.75% (54/502) of the hospitalized children with ARI and in that 5.57% (28/502) were positive for Inf-A and 5.17% (26/502) were positive for Inf-B. Of the 54 Inf-V positive children, 33 were aged between 6 and 20 months. Of the 28 children infected with Inf-A, 15 had uncharacterized lower respiratory infection, 7 had bronchopneumonia and 6 had bronchiolitis. Of the 26 children infected with Inf-B, 11 had uncharacterized lower respiratory infection, 10 had bronchiolitis, and 4 had bronchopneumonia. Inf-B circulated throughout the year with a few peaks, one in June and then in August followed by November to December in 2016 and one in April 2017 and January 2018. Inf-A circulated throughout the year with a major peak in March to April 2017 and July 2018. ARI was more common in boys compared to girls. Majority of the children infected with Inf-V were diagnosed with uncharacterized lower respiratory infection and mild to moderate bronchiolitis. Inf-V infections were prevalent throughout the year in the study area of Sri Lanka with variations in the type of the circulating virus.

Epidemiological survey to establish thresholds for influenza among children in satellite cities of Tokyo, Japan, 2014-2018

OBJECTIVE

We described the characteristics of children reported as having influenza across five consecutive influenza seasons and investigated the usefulness of setting influenza thresholds in two satellite cities of Tokyo, Japan.

METHODS

An annual survey was conducted among parents of children at preschools (kindergartens and nursery schools), elementary schools and junior high schools in Toda and Warabi cities, Saitama prefecture, at the end of the 2014-2018 influenza seasons. Using the World Health Organization method, we established seasonal, high and alert thresholds.

RESULTS

There were 64 586 children included in the analysis. Over the five seasons, between 19.1% and 22% of children annually were reported as having tested positive for influenza. Influenza type A was reported as the dominant type, although type B was also reported in more than 40% of cases in the 2015 and 2017 seasons. The median period of the seasonal peak was 3 weeks in mid-January, regardless of school level. Of the five surveyed seasons, the high threshold was reached in 2014 and 2018, with no season exceeding the alert threshold.

DISCUSSION

This study provides insights into the circulation of influenza in children in the study areas of Toda and Warabi, Japan, from 2014 to 2018. Although we were able to utilize these annual surveys to calculate influenza thresholds from five consecutive seasons, the prospective usefulness of these thresholds is limited as the survey is conducted at the end of the influenza season.

The development trend of influenza in China from 2010 to 2019

In this study, we quantify and evaluate the transmission capacity of different types of influenza, and evaluate the flu vaccination effect. Taking the influenza cases reported by the National Influenza Center of China from 2010 to 2019 as the research object (http://www.chinaivdc.cn/cnic), we established the SEIABR model to calculate the influenza infection rate and R₀ for each year from 2010 to 2019, and calculate the influenza A and B influenza infection rates. We further added vaccination measures to the SEIABR model, and analysis the impact of different vaccination rates on the spread of influenza. We find that the range of β(infection rate) is 6.03×10−10 to 9.66×10−10, and the average is 7.95±1.27×10−10, the range of R₀ is .98 to 1.47, and the average is 1.21. Simulation result suggest that vaccine coverage needed to reach 60%-80% to control the spread of influenza virus in China when the vaccine effectiveness was 20%-40%. When the vaccine effectiveness is 40%-60%, vaccine coverage needs to reach 40%-60% to control the spread of influenza virus in China. In China, the infection rate of influenza A is higher than influenza B, to better control the spread of the flu virus, we suggest that we also need to increase the number of people vaccinated or improve the efficiency of vaccines(the current vaccination coverage is probably less than 20%).

Behavioral-biological surveillance of emerging infectious diseases among a dynamic cohort in Thailand

Background

Interactions between humans and animals are the key elements of zoonotic spillover leading to zoonotic disease emergence. Research to understand the high-risk behaviors associated with disease transmission at the human-animal interface is limited, and few consider regional and local contexts.

Objective

This study employed an integrated behavioral–biological surveillance approach for the early detection of novel and known zoonotic viruses in potentially high-risk populations, in an effort to identify risk factors for spillover and to determine potential foci for risk-mitigation measures.

Method

Participants were enrolled at two community-based sites (n = 472) in eastern and western Thailand and two hospital (clinical) sites (n = 206) in northeastern and central Thailand. A behavioral questionnaire was administered to understand participants’ demographics, living conditions, health history, and animal-contact behaviors and attitudes. Biological specimens were tested for coronaviruses, filoviruses, flaviviruses, influenza viruses, and paramyxoviruses using pan (consensus) RNA Virus assays.

Results

Overall 61/678 (9%) of participants tested positive for the viral families screened which included influenza viruses (75%), paramyxoviruses (15%), human coronaviruses (3%), flaviviruses (3%), and enteroviruses (3%). The most salient predictors of reporting unusual symptoms (i.e., any illness or sickness that is not known or recognized in the community or diagnosed by medical providers) in the past year were having other household members who had unusual symptoms and being scratched or bitten by animals in the same year. Many participants reported raising and handling poultry (10.3% and 24.2%), swine (2%, 14.6%), and cattle (4.9%, 7.8%) and several participants also reported eating raw or undercooked meat of these animals (2.2%, 5.5%, 10.3% respectively). Twenty four participants (3.5%) reported handling bats or having bats in the house roof. Gender, age, and livelihood activities were shown to be significantly associated with participants’ interactions with animals. Participants’ knowledge of risks influenced their health-seeking behavior.

Conclusion

The results suggest that there is a high level of interaction between humans, livestock, and wild animals in communities at sites we investigated in Thailand. This study highlights important differences among demographic and occupational risk factors as they relate to animal contact and zoonotic disease risk, which can be used by policymakers and local public health programs to build more effective surveillance strategies and behavior-focused interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07439-7.

Over-the-Counter Medicine Attitudes and Knowledge among University and College Students in Brunei Darussalam: Findings from the First National Survey

Over-the-counter (OTC) medicine is defined as safe and effective for the general public to use, without seeking therapy from a health professional. As primary social media and internet users, university and college students are more likely to be exposed to unverified sources of health information. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour of students at institutions of higher learning in Brunei with regard to the safe use of OTC medicines. A cross-sectional study was performed using a self-administered online questionnaire, adapted from the literature with additional information from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the educational resources in understanding OTC medicine for consumers. The questionnaire consisted of 4 sections: demographic information, knowledge of OTC medicines, attitudes, and practice. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. A total of 335 students returned a completed questionnaire. The students had a mean knowledge score of 7.1 out of 9, with more than half (53.4%) having good knowledge (knowledge score > 7), and only a small percentage (5.7%) with poor knowledge. Almost all of the students (99.7%) had a positive attitude toward OTC medicine use. Few of the students practiced improper habits in terms of OTC medicine use, such as not reading the instructions or taking more than the recommended dose. Awareness of proper OTC medicine use among students in institutions of higher learning is necessary to prevent the rise of inappropriate user practices.

Emergence of influenza B/Victoria in the Micronesian US-affiliated Pacific Islands, spring 2019

Data collected through routine syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness in the Micronesian United States-affiliated Pacific Islands highlighted out-of-season influenza outbreaks in the spring of 2019. This report describes the data collected through the World Health Organization's Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Compared with historical data, more cases of influenza-like illness were observed in all four islands described here, with the highest number reported in Guam in week 9, CNMI and FSM in week 15, and RMI in week 19. The outbreaks predominantly affected those aged < 20 years, with evidence from CNMI and RMI suggesting higher attack rates among those who were unvaccinated. Cases confirmed by laboratory testing suggested that influenza B was predominant, with 83% (99/120) of subtyped specimens classified as influenza B/Victoria during January-May 2019. These outbreaks occurred after the usual influenza season and were consistent with transmission patterns in Eastern Asia rather than those in Oceania or the United States of America, the areas typically associated with the United States-affiliated Pacific Islands due to their geographical proximity to Oceania and political affiliation with the United States of America. A plausible epidemiological route of introduction may be the high levels of international tourism from Eastern Asian countries recorded during these periods of increased influenza B/Victoria circulation. This report demonstrates the value of year-round surveillance for communicable diseases and underscores the importance of seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly among younger age groups.

Expert opinion on the way forward for improving maternal influenza vaccination in India

INTRODUCTION

: Rates of maternal vaccination against influenza are extremely low in India. An expert panel of obstetric-gynecologists and pediatricians met to develop consensus-based recommendations for improving awareness of the benefits of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in India.

AREAS COVERED

: The group discussed experiences of influenza infection in pregnancy and infancy before focusing on maternal vaccination practices in India, including the degree of communication between obstetric-gynecologists and pediatricians and opinions on optimal timing for vaccination. The impact of inconsistent vaccine prescription practices by healthcare providers was discussed, as well as current clinical recommendations on maternal influenza vaccination.

EXPERT OPINION

: Although clinical evidence demonstrates the benefit of maternal influenza vaccination in any trimester, influenza vaccination is not widely accepted in India as an integral part of antenatal care. There is a lack of familiarity among obstetricians of clinical guidelines on maternal influenza vaccination. This can be addressed with an education campaign targeting obstetricians and other providers of maternal healthcare. With variable influenza seasons between regions in India, common vaccine stock shortages, and data suggesting influenza vaccination is feasible anytime in pregnancy, all opportunities to offer vaccination to this high-risk group for severe influenza disease should be considered.

Epidemiology and Seasonality of Childhood Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in the Tropics

Infections caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in young children worldwide. Understanding seasonal patterns of region-specific RSV activity is important to guide resource allocation for existing and future treatment and prevention strategies. The decades of excellent RSV surveillance data that are available from the developed countries of the world are incredibly instructive in advancing public health initiatives in those regions. With few exceptions, these developed nations are positioned geographically across temperate regions of the world. RSV surveillance across tropical regions of the world has improved in recent years, but remains spotty, and where available, still lacks the necessary longitudinal data to determine the amount of seasonal variation expected over time. However, existing and emerging data collected across tropical regions of the world do indicate that patterns of infection are often quite different from those so well described in temperate areas. Here, we provide a brief summary regarding what is known about general patterns of RSV disease activity across tropical Asia, Africa and South America, then offer additional country-specific details using examples where multiple reports and/or more robust surveillance data have become available.

Differential Antibody Recognition of H3N2 Vaccine and Seasonal Influenza Virus Strains Based on Age, Vaccine Status, and Sex in the 2017-2018 Season

BACKGROUND

An antigenic mismatch between the vaccine and circulating H3N2 strains was hypothesized to contribute to the severity of the 2017-2018 season in North America.

METHODS

Serum and nasal washes were collected from influenza positive and negative patients during the 2017-2018 season to determine neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers and for influenza virus sequencing, respectively.

RESULTS

The circulating and vaccine H3N2 virus strains were different clades, with the vaccine strain being clade 3C.2a and the circulating viruses being 3C.2a2 or 3C.3a. At enrollment, both the H3N2 negative and positive patients had greater nAb titers to the egg-adapted vaccine virus compared to the cell-grown vaccine but the H3N2-negative population had significantly greater titers to the circulating 3C.2a2. Among H3N2-positive patients, vaccination, younger age, and female sex were associated with greater nAb responses to the egg-adapted vaccine H3N2 virus but not to the cell-grown vaccine or circulating viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

For the 2017-2018 circulating viruses, mutations introduced by egg adaptation decreased vaccine efficacy. No increased protection was afforded by vaccination, younger age, or female sex against 2017-2018 circulating H3N2 viruses.

Evidence for an increase in the intensity of inter-seasonal influenza, Queensland, Australia, 2009-2019

BACKGROUND

Inter-seasonal influenza cases have been increasing in Australia. Studies of influenza seasonality typically focus on seasonal transmission in temperate regions, leaving our understanding of inter-seasonal epidemiology limited. We aimed to improve understanding of influenza epidemiology during inter-seasonal periods across climate zones, and explored influenza intensity and strain dominance patterns over time.

METHODS

Queensland state-wide laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications and public laboratory influenza test data from 2009-2019 were described by demographics, time period, region and strain type. We compared influenza intensity over time using the WHO Average Curve method to provide thresholds for seasonal and inter-seasonal periods.

RESULTS

Among the 243 830 influenza notifications and 490 772 laboratory tests reported in Queensland between 2009 and 2019, 15% of notifications and 40% of tests occurred during inter-seasonal periods, with 6.3% of inter-seasonal tests positive. Inter-seasonal notifications and tests substantially increased over time and increases in weekly proportions positive and intensity classifications suggested gradual increases in virus activity. Tropical inter-seasonal activity was higher with periods of marked increase. Influenza A was dominant, although influenza B represented up to 72% and 42% of notifications during some seasonal and inter-seasonal periods, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Using notification and testing data, we have demonstrated a gradual increase in inter-seasonal influenza over time. Our findings suggest this increase results from an interplay between testing, activity and intensity, and strain circulation. Seasonal intensity and strain circulation appeared to modify subsequent period intensity. Routine year-round surveillance data would provide a better understanding of influenza epidemiology during this infrequently studied inter-seasonal time period.

Epidemiology of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Before and After the Introduction of Enterovirus 71 Vaccines in Chengdu, China, 2009-2018

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a serious threat to children's health. Three inactivated monovalent enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccines are proved to be highly efficacious in phase III clinical trials and are now available in China.

METHODS

We analyzed the citywide surveillance data on HFMD cases in Chengdu during 2009-2018, and estimated cumulative first-dose EV71 vaccination coverage among children eligible to EV71 vaccination after August 2016 in Chengdu. Time series susceptible-infected-recovered model was developed to analyze basic reproduction number and herd immunity threshold of HFMD. Overall and serotype-specific HFMD incidences and severity risks were compared before and after the EV71 vaccination.

RESULTS

Among 3 laboratory-identified serotype categories, i.e. EV71, coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), and other enteroviruses, the major serotype attributed to HFMD has been changing across years. The cumulative first-dose EV71 vaccination coverage rate was estimated as 60.8% during the study period in Chengdu. By contrast, herd immunity threshold for EV71-related HFMD was 94.0%. After introduction of EV71 vaccines, the overall incidence of HFMD increased 60.8%, mainly driven by 173.7% and 11.8% increased in HFMD caused by other enteroviruses and CV-A16, respectively, which offset a significant reduction in the incidence of HFMD caused by EV71. The overall case-severity risk decreased from 1.4% to 0.3%, with significantly declined presented in all serotype categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and severity of EV71-related HFMD decreased following implementation of EV71 vaccination. Developing multivalent vaccines and strengthening laboratory-based surveillance could further decline burden of HFMD.

COVID19 in South Asians/Asian Indians: Heterogeneity of data and implications for pathophysiology and research

Despite a large population and limited health infrastructure, the incidence and mortality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been lower in South Asia than many regions. The underlying reasons and mechanisms for this relative protection are not established. However both genetic and environmental factors might play a role. Polymorphisms in ACE2 gene, ACE gene and in genes for some of the host cell proteases could affect the viral entry and replication. There is some evidence that HLA polymorphisms and several pathways involved in immune and inflammatory response could contribute to ethnic variation. Cross immunity because of past exposure to viral infections as well as malaria is likely to protect from the severe manifestations of disease. Role of BCG vaccination in trained innate immunity is recognised and could be a protective factor against COVID-19. There is limited evidence of the possibility of a less virulent viral strain circulating in South Asia. There is evidence from different parts of the world that temperature and humidity can influence viral survival as well as the host immune response. Finally implementation of early containment measures by some South Asian countries has also contributed to a less disease burden.

Epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza B virus in coastal Kenya as revealed by genomic analysis of strains sampled over a single season

The genomic epidemiology of influenza B virus (IBV) remains understudied in Africa despite significance to design of effective local and global control strategies. We undertook surveillance throughout 2016 in coastal Kenya, recruiting individuals presenting with acute respiratory illness at nine outpatient health facilities (any age) or admitted to the Kilifi County Hospital (<5 years old). Whole genomes were sequenced for a selected 111 positives; 94 (84.7%) of B/Victoria lineage and 17 (15.3%) of B/Yamagata lineage. Inter-lineage reassortment was detected in ten viruses; nine with B/Yamagata backbone but B/Victoria NA and NP segments and one with a B/Victoria backbone but B/Yamagata PB2, PB1, PA, and MP segments. Five phylogenomic clusters were identified among the sequenced viruses; (i), pure B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 93, 83.8%), (ii), reassortant B/Victoria clade 1A (n = 1, 0.9%), (iii), pure B/Yamagata clade 2 (n = 2, 1.8%), (iv), pure B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 6, 5.4%), and (v), reassortant B/Yamagata clade 3 (n = 9, 8.1%). Using divergence dates and clustering patterns in the presence of global background sequences, we counted up to twenty-nine independent IBV strain introductions into the study area (∼900 km2) in 2016. Local viruses, including the reassortant B/Yamagata strains, clustered closely with viruses from neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda. Our study demonstrated that genomic analysis provides a clearer picture of locally circulating IBV diversity. The high number of IBV introductions highlights the challenge in controlling local influenza epidemics by targeted approaches, for example, sub-population vaccination or patient quarantine. The finding of divergent IBV strains co-circulating within a single season emphasises why broad immunity vaccines are the most ideal for influenza control in Kenya.

Epidemiological features and time-series analysis of influenza incidence in urban and rural areas of Shenyang, China, 2010-2018

In recent years, there have been a significant influenza activity and emerging influenza strains in China, resulting in an increasing number of influenza virus infections and leading to public health concerns. The aims of this study were to identify the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of influenza and establish seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models for forecasting the percentage of visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) in urban and rural areas of Shenyang. Influenza surveillance data were obtained for ILI cases and influenza virus positivity from 18 sentinel hospitals. The SARIMA models were constructed to predict ILI% for January–December 2019. During 2010–2018, the influenza activity was higher in urban than in rural areas. The age distribution of ILI cases showed the highest rate in young children aged 0–4 years. Seasonal A/H3N2, influenza B virus and pandemic A/H1N1 continuously co-circulated in winter and spring seasons. In addition, the SARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 1, 2)₁₂ model for the urban area and the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)₁₂ model for the rural area were appropriate for predicting influenza incidence. Our findings suggested that there were regional and seasonal distinctions of ILI activity in Shenyang. A co-epidemic pattern of influenza strains was evident in terms of seasonal influenza activity. Young children were more susceptible to influenza virus infection than adults. These results provide a reference for future influenza prevention and control strategies in the study area.

Overview of seasonal influenza and recommended vaccine during the 2016/2017 season in Nepal

Background

Influenza is a highly contagious viral respiratory infection caused by influenza viruses whose epidemic and pandemic have resulted in significant morbidity and mortality. The annual epidemic of influenza results in an estimated 3–5 million cases of severe illness and about 290000–650000 deaths globally. The vaccination program has been successful to control the epidemic however, it further needs improvement. This study was aimed to investigate the types of influenza viruses prevailing in Nepal during 2016 and, to match the recommended vaccine for use during the same season.

Methods

A descriptive cross sectional study was carried out at National Public Health Laboratory, Kathmandu, Nepal for the period of one year (Jan–Dec 2016). A total of 1683 throat swab specimen was collected from patients of different age group referred to NPHL for influenza testing. The specimen was primarily stored at 4 °C and processed using ABI 7500 RT PCR system for the identification of influenza viruses.

Results

Of the total 1683 patients suspected of having influenza infection, influenza viruses were isolated from 614 (36.5%) patients with male predominance. The highest number of infection was caused by influenza A/H3 strain (51.0%) followed by influenza B (40.4%) and influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 (8.6%). Two peaks of infection were observed during the year 2016. The widely available trivalent vaccine during the season did not match the prevailing strain because of the dominance of B/Yamagata lineage over B/Victoria lineage.

Conclusion

We concluded that Nepal experiences semiannual cycle of influenza infection, firstly during the month of January–February and secondly during the month of July–August. The vaccine to be introduced in Nepal need to be decided by national authority based on prevailing influenza types to confer effective immunization.