Evaluating vaccination strategies for reducing infant respiratory syncytial virus infection in low-income settings

Long-term effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on total disease burden in parsimonious epidemiological models

The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation. Therefore, the net long-term effects of NPIs on the total disease burden of non-target diseases remain unclear. Knowledge of this is important for infectious disease management and maintenance of public health. In this study, we shed light on this issue for the simplified scenario of a set of NPIs that prevent or reduce transmission of a seasonal respiratory disease for about a year and are then removed, using mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of a suite of four epidemiological models with varying complexity and generality. The model parameters were estimated using empirical data pertaining to seasonal respiratory diseases and covered a wide range. Our results showed that NPIs reduced the total disease burden of a non-target seasonal respiratory disease in the long-term. Expressed as a percentage of population size, the reduction was greater for larger values of the basic reproduction number and the immunity loss rate, reflecting larger outbreaks and hence more infections averted by imposition of NPIs. Our study provides a foundation for exploring the effects of NPIs on total disease burden in more-complex scenarios.

Change in Age profile of Respiratory Syncytial Virus disease over the course of annual epidemics: a multi-national study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study whether the percentwise age distribution of RSV cases changes over time during annual epidemics.

METHODS

We used surveillance data (2008-2019) from the Netherlands, Lyon (France), Portugal, Singapore, Ecuador, South Africa, and New Zealand. In each country, every season was divided into "epidemic quarters", i.e. periods corresponding to each quartile of RSV cases. Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate whether the likelihood of RSV cases being aged <1 or ≥5 years (vs. 1 to <5) changed over time within a season.

RESULTS

In all countries, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged <1 year in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter; the relative risk ratio [RRR] ranged between 1.35 and 2.56. Likewise, RSV cases were significantly more likely to be aged ≥5 years in the 4th vs. 1st epidemic quarter (except in Singapore); the RRR ranged from 1.75 to 6.70. The results did not change when stratifying by level of care or moving the lower cut-off to 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The age profile of RSV cases shifts within a season, with infants and adolescents, adults, and the elderly constituting a higher proportion of cases in the later phases of annual epidemics. These findings may have implications for RSV prevention policies with newly approved vaccines.

Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, Italy

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and mortality in young children globally. The social distancing measures implemented against COVID-19 in Lombardy (Italy) disrupted the typically seasonal RSV circulation during 2019-2021 and caused substantially more hospitalisations during 2021-2022. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the immunity gap-defined as the increased proportion of the population naïve to RSV infection following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Lombardy, which has been hypothesised to be a potential cause of the increased RSV burden in 2021-2022.

METHODS

We developed a catalytic model to reconstruct changes in the age-dependent susceptibility profile of the Lombardy population throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is calibrated to routinely collected hospitalisation, syndromic, and virological surveillance data and tested for alternative assumptions on age-dependencies in the risk of RSV infection throughout the pandemic.

FINDINGS

We estimate that the proportion of the Lombardy population naïve to RSV infection increased by 60.8% (95% CrI: 55.2-65.4%) during the COVID-19 pandemic: from 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.3-1.6%) in 2018-2019 to 2.3% (95% CrI: 2.2-2.5%) before the 2021-2022 season, corresponding to an immunity gap of 0.87% (95% CrI: 0.87-0.88%). We found evidence of heterogeneity in RSV transmission by age, suggesting that the COVID-19 restrictions had variable impact on the contact patterns and risk of RSV infection across ages.

INTERPRETATION

We estimate a substantial increase in the population-level susceptibility to RSV in Lombardy during 2019-2021, which contributed to an increase in primary RSV infections in 2021-2022.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), EDCTP2 programme, European Union, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, EU-MUR PNRR INF-ACT.

The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: A semi-parametric, meta-regression approach

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are among the primary causes of death for children under 5 years of age worldwide. A notable challenge with many of the upcoming prophylactic interventions against RSV is their short duration of protection, making the age profile of key interest to the design of prevention strategies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We leverage the RSV data collected on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in a systematic review in combination with flexible generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to characterize the age burden of RSV incidence, hospitalization, and hospital-based case fatality rate (hCFR). Due to the flexible nature of GAMMs, we estimate the peak, median, and mean incidence of infection to inform discussions on the ideal "window of protection" of prophylactic interventions. In a secondary analysis, we reestimate the burden of RSV in all low- and middle-income countries. The peak age of community-based incidence is 4.8 months, and the mean and median age of infection is 18.9 and 14.7 months, respectively. Estimating the age profile using the incidence coming from hospital-based studies yields a slightly younger age profile, in which the peak age of infection is 2.6 months and the mean and median age of infection are 15.8 and 11.6 months, respectively. More severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and in-hospital death have a younger age profile. Children under 6 months of age constitute 10% of the population under 5 years of age but bear 20% to 29% of cases, 28% to 39% of hospitalizations, and 38% to 50% of deaths. On an average year, we estimate 28.23 to 31.34 million cases of RSV, between 2.95 to 3.35 million hospitalizations, and 16,835 to 19,909 in-hospital deaths in low, lower- and upper middle-income countries. In addition, we estimate 17,254 to 23,875 deaths in the community, for a total of 34,114 to 46,485 deaths. Globally, evidence shows that community-based incidence may differ by World Bank Income Group, but not hospital-based incidence, probability of hospitalization, or the probability of in-hospital death (p ≤ 0.01, p = 1, p = 0.86, 0.63, respectively). Our study is limited mainly due to the sparsity of the data, especially for low-income countries (LICs). The lack of information for some populations makes detecting heterogeneity between income groups difficult, and differences in access to care may impact the reported burden.

CONCLUSIONS

We have demonstrated an approach to synthesize information on RSV outcomes in a statistically principled manner, and we estimate that the age profile of RSV burden depends on whether information on incidence is collected in hospitals or in the community. Our results suggest that the ideal prophylactic strategy may require multiple products to avert the risk among preschool children.

Cost-Effectiveness of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Preventive Interventions in Children: A Model Comparison Study

OBJECTIVES

Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses on maternal vaccine (MV) and monoclonal antibody (mAb) interventions against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) use context-specific data and produce varied results. Through model comparison, we aim to characterize RSV cost-effectiveness models and examine drivers for their outputs.

METHODS

We compared 3 static and 2 dynamic models using a common input parameter set for a hypothetical birth cohort of 100 000 infants. Year-round and seasonal programs were evaluated for MV and mAb interventions, using available evidence during the study period (eg, phase III MV and phase IIb mAb efficacy).

RESULTS

Three static models estimated comparable medically attended (MA) cases averted versus no intervention (MV, 1019-1073; mAb, 5075-5487), with the year-round MV directly saving ∼€1 million medical and €0.3 million nonmedical costs, while gaining 4 to 5 discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually in <1-year-olds, and mAb resulting in €4 million medical and €1.5 million nonmedical cost savings, and 21 to 25 discounted QALYs gained. In contrast, both dynamic models estimated fewer MA cases averted (MV, 402-752; mAb, 3362-4622); one showed an age shift of RSV cases, whereas the other one reported many non-MA symptomatic cases averted, especially by MV (2014). These differences can be explained by model types, assumptions on non-MA burden, and interventions' effectiveness over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Our static and dynamic models produced overall similar hospitalization and death estimates, but also important differences, especially in non-MA cases averted. Despite the small QALY decrement per non-MA case, their larger number makes them influential for the costs per QALY gained of RSV interventions.

Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 related non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to a suppression of RSV circulation in winter 2020/21 in the UK and an off-season resurgence in Summer 2021. We explore how the parameters of RSV epidemiology shape the size and dynamics of post-suppression resurgence and what we can learn about them from the resurgence patterns observed so far.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV and sampled the parameters governing RSV seasonality, infection susceptibility and post-infection immunity, retaining simulations fitting the UK's pre-pandemic epidemiology by a set of global criteria consistent with likelihood calculations. From Spring 2020 to Summer 2021 we assumed a reduced contact frequency, returning to pre-pandemic levels from Spring 2021. We simulated transmission forwards until 2023 and evaluated the impact of the sampled parameters on the projected trajectories of RSV hospitalisations and compared these to the observed resurgence.

RESULTS

Simulations replicated an out-of-season resurgence of RSV in 2021. If unmitigated, paediatric RSV hospitalisation incidence in the 2021/22 season was projected to increase by 30-60% compared to pre-pandemic levels. The increase was larger if infection risk was primarily determined by immunity acquired from previous exposure rather than age-dependent factors, exceeding 90 % and 130 % in 1-2 and 2-5 year old children, respectively. Analysing the simulations replicating the observed early outbreak in 2021 in addition to pre-pandemic RSV data, we found they were characterised by weaker seasonal forcing, stronger age-dependence of infection susceptibility and higher baseline transmissibility.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 mitigation measures in the UK stopped RSV circulation in the 2020/21 season and generated immunity debt leading to an early off-season RSV epidemic in 2021. A stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on immunity from previous exposure increases the size of the resurgent season. The early onset of the RSV resurgence in 2021, its marginally increased size relative to previous seasons and its decline by January 2022 suggest a stronger dependence of infection susceptibility on age-related factors, as well as a weaker effect of seasonality and a higher baseline transmissibility. The pattern of resurgence has been complicated by contact levels still not back to pre-pandemic levels. Further fitting of RSV resurgence in multiple countries incorporating data on contact patterns will be needed to further narrow down these parameters and to better predict the pathogen's future trajectory, planning for a potential expansion of new immunisation products against RSV in the coming years.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess respiratory syncytial virus epidemiology and interventions: a literature review

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide, resulting in approximately sixty thousand annual hospitalizations of< 5-year-olds in the United States alone and three million annual hospitalizations globally. The development of over 40 vaccines and immunoprophylactic interventions targeting RSV has the potential to significantly reduce the disease burden from RSV infection in the near future. In the context of RSV, a highly contagious pathogen, dynamic transmission models (DTMs) are valuable tools in the evaluation and comparison of the effectiveness of different interventions. This review, the first of its kind for RSV DTMs, provides a valuable foundation for future modelling efforts and highlights important gaps in our understanding of RSV epidemics. Specifically, we have searched the literature using Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and PubMed to identify all published manuscripts reporting the development of DTMs focused on the population transmission of RSV. We reviewed the resulting studies and summarized the structure, parameterization, and results of the models developed therein. We anticipate that future RSV DTMs, combined with cost-effectiveness evaluations, will play a significant role in shaping decision making in the development and implementation of intervention programs.

Individual's daily behaviour and intergenerational mixing in different social contexts of Kenya

We investigated contact patterns in diverse social contexts in Kenya and the daily behaviours that may play a pivotal role in infection transmission to the most vulnerable leveraging novel data from a 2-day survey on social contacts and time use (TU) from a sample of 1407 individuals (for a total of 2705 person days) from rural, urban formal, and informal settings. We used TU data to build six profiles of daily behaviour based on the main reported activities, i.e., Homestayers (71.1% of person days), Workers (9.3%), Schoolers (7.8%), or locations at increasing distance from home, i.e., Walkers (6.6%), Commuters (4.6%), Travelers (0.6%). In the rural setting, we observed higher daily contact numbers (11.56, SD 0.23) and percentages of intergenerational mixing with older adults (7.5% of contacts reported by those younger than 60 years vs. less than 4% in the urban settings). Overall, intergenerational mixing with older adults was higher for Walkers (7.3% of their reported contacts), Commuters (8.7%), and Homestayers (5.1%) than for Workers (1.5%) or Schoolers (3.6%). These results could be instrumental in defining effective interventions that acknowledge the heterogeneity in social contexts and daily routines, either in Kenya or other demographically and culturally similar sub-Saharan African settings.

Adjustable Algorithmic Tool for Assessing the Effectiveness of Maternal Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Vaccination on Infant Mortality in Developing Countries

Acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) due to RSV is a common cause of global infant mortality, with most cases occurring in developing countries. Using data aggregated from priority countries as designated by the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Maternal Child Health and Nutrition (MCHN) program, we created an adjustable algorithmic tool for visualizing the effectiveness of candidate maternal RSV vaccination on infant mortality. Country-specific estimates for disease burden and case fatality rates were computed based on established data. Country-specific RSV-ALRI incidence rates for infants 0-5 months were scaled based on the reported incidence rates for children 0-59 months. Using in-hospital mortality rates and predetermined “inflation factor,” we estimated the mortality of infants aged 0-5 months. Given implementation of a candidate maternal vaccination program, estimated reduction in infant RSV-ALRI incidence and mortality rates were calculated. User input is used to determine the coverage of the program and the efficacy of the vaccine. Using the generated algorithm, the overall reduction in infant mortality varied considerably depending on vaccine efficacy and distribution. Given a potential efficacy of 70% and a maternal distribution rate of 50% in every USAID MCHN priority country, annual RSV-ALRI-related infant mortality is estimated to be reduced by 14,862 cases. The absolute country-specific reduction is dependent on the number of live births; countries with the highest birth rates had the greatest impact on annual mortality reduction. The adjustable algorithm provides a standardized analytical tool in the evaluation of candidate maternal RSV vaccines. Ultimately, it can be used to guide public health initiatives, research funding, and policy implementation concerning the effectiveness of potential maternal RSV vaccination on reducing infant mortality.

Respiratory syncytial virus in severe lower respiratory infections in previously healthy young Ethiopian infants

BACKGROUND

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the commonest cause of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in infants. However, the burden of RSV is unknown in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the prevalence, seasonality and predictors of RSV infection in young infants with ALRI for the first time in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We performed RSV immuno-chromatographic assay from nasopharyngeal swabs of infants, 29 days to 6 months of age. We included the first 10 eligible infants in each month from June 2018 to May 2019 admitted in a tertiary pediatric center. Clinical, laboratory and imaging data were also collected, and chi-square test and regression were used to assess associated factors with RSV infection.

RESULTS

Among a total of 117 study children, 65% were male and mean age was 3 months. Bronchiolitis was the commonest diagnosis (49%). RSV was isolated from 26 subjects (22.2%) of all ALRI, 37% of bronchiolitis and 11% of pneumonia patients. Although RSV infection occurred year round, highest rate extended from June to November. No clinical or laboratory parameter predicted RSV infection and only rainy season (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 10.46 [95%. C.I. 1.95, 56.18]) was independent predictor of RSV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

RSV was isolated in a fifth of young infants with severe ALRI, mostly in the rainy season. Diagnosis of RSV infection in our setting require specific tests as no clinical parameter predicted RSV infection. Since RSV caused less than a quarter of ALRI in our setting, the other causes should be looked for in future studies.

Assessment of the Effects of Active Immunisation against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) using Decision-Analytic Models: A Systematic Review with a Focus on Vaccination Strategies, Modelling Methods and Input Data

BACKGROUND

Several vaccine and antibody candidates are currently in development for the prevention of lower respiratory tract infections caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and SCOPUS and included model-based evaluations of RSV vaccinations. Two reviewers performed the selection, data extraction, and quality evaluation with EVIDEM. Cost-effectiveness (CE) estimates were converted to $US purchasing power parity (PPP), year 2018 values. Potential economic and epidemiological outcomes were summarised for maternal, infant, children, and elderly vaccinations. The PROSPERO identifier is CRD42019122570.

RESULTS

In total, 22 model-based studies were reviewed. On average, a potential 27% reduction in RSV hospitalisations in infants was projected for maternal vaccination and 50% for direct infant immunisation. The CE of maternal vaccination was $US1766-5857 PPP 2018/disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi)-eligible countries. For England, the maximum cost-effective price of maternal vaccination was estimated at $US81.5 PPP 2018. Infant vaccination was associated with higher CE ratios in low- and high-income settings. Vaccination of neonates born before the RSV season was the most cost effective in high-income settings. Higher values for vaccine effectiveness, duration of protection, and vaccine uptake increased the benefits. Due to indirect effects, the vaccination of school-age children and a cocooning strategy were effective alternatives to protect infants, and the vaccination of children aged < 5 years had a beneficial impact on the elderly.

CONCLUSION

RSV vaccines with anticipated characteristics may reduce a sizeable proportion of the RSV burden. The results are subject to uncertainty because of the limited epidemiological and clinical data. Data on RSV incidence and hospitalisation risk for granular age strata should be prioritised to facilitate the evaluation of RSV interventions and decision making.

Mathematical modelling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

Background:

Due to high burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), international funding organizations have prioritized the development of RSV vaccines. Mathematical models of RSV will play an important role in assessing the relative value of these interventions. Our objectives were to provide an overview of the existing RSV modelling literature in LMIC and summarize available results on population-level effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Methods:

We searched MEDLINE from 2000 to 2020 for English language publications that employed a mathematical model of RSV calibrated to LMIC. Qualitative data were extracted on study and model characteristics. Quantitative data were collected on key model input assumptions and base case effectiveness and cost-effectiveness estimates for various immunization strategies.

Findings:

Of the 283 articles reviewed, 15 met inclusion criteria. Ten studies used modelling techniques to explore RSV transmission and/or natural history, while eight studies evaluated RSV vaccines and/or monoclonal antibodies, three of which included cost-effectiveness analyses. Six studies employed deterministic compartmental models, five studies employed individual transmission models, and four studies used different types of cohort models. Nearly every model was calibrated to at least one middle-income country, while four were calibrated to low-income countries.

Interpretation:

The mathematical modelling literature in LMIC has demonstrated the potential effectiveness of RSV vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. This review has demonstrated the importance of accounting for seasonality, social contact rates, immunity from prior infection and maternal antibody transfer. Future models should consider incorporating individual-level risk factors, subtype-specific effects, long-term sequelae of RSV infections, and out-of-hospital mortality.

Respiratory syncytial virus in young children: community cohort study integrating serological surveys, questionnaire and electronic health records, Born in Bradford cohort, England, 2008 to 2013

Background

Bronchiolitis caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in infants.

Aim

To describe RSV epidemiology in children in the community in a high-income setting.

Methods

We used stored blood samples from the United Kingdom Born in Bradford cohort study that had been collected at birth, age 1 and 2 years old, tested for IgG RSV postfusion F antibody and linked to questionnaires and primary and hospital care records. We used finite mixture models to classify children as RSV infected/not infected according to their antibody concentrations at age 1 and 2 years. We assessed risk factors for primary RSV infection at each age using Poisson regression models.

Results

The study cohort included 700 children with cord blood samples; 490 had additional blood samples taken at both ages 1 and 2 years old. Of these 490 children, 258 (53%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 48–57%) were first infected with RSV at age 1, 99 of whom (38%; 95% CI: 33–43%) had been in contact with healthcare during peak RSV season (November–January). Having older siblings, birth in October–June and attending formal childcare were associated with risk of RSV infection in infancy. By age 2, a further 164 of 490 children (33%; 95% CI: 29–38%) had been infected.

Conclusion

Over half of children experienced RSV infection in infancy, a further one third had evidence of primary RSV infection by age 2, and one in seven remained seronegative by their second birthday. These findings will inform future analyses to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSV vaccination programmes in high-income settings.

Integrating epidemiological and genetic data with different sampling intensities into a dynamic model of respiratory syncytial virus transmission

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is responsible for a significant burden of severe acute lower respiratory tract illness in children under 5 years old; particularly infants. Prior to rolling out any vaccination program, identification of the source of infant infections could further guide vaccination strategies. We extended a dynamic model calibrated at the individual host level initially fit to social-temporal data on shedding patterns to include whole genome sequencing data available at a lower sampling intensity. The study population was 493 individuals (55 aged < 1 year) distributed across 47 households, observed through one RSV season in coastal Kenya. We found that 58/97 (60%) of RSV-A and 65/125 (52%) of RSV-B cases arose from infection probably occurring within the household. Nineteen (45%) infant infections appeared to be the result of infection by other household members, of which 13 (68%) were a result of transmission from a household co-occupant aged between 2 and 13 years. The applicability of genomic data in studies of transmission dynamics is highly context specific; influenced by the question, data collection protocols and pathogen under investigation. The results further highlight the importance of pre-school and school-aged children in RSV transmission, particularly the role they play in directly infecting the household infant. These age groups are a potential RSV vaccination target group.

Nanoparticle vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory disease in infants, the elderly and immunocompromised individuals. Despite the global burden, there is no licensed vaccine for RSV. Recent advances in the use of nanoparticle technology have provided new opportunities to address some of the limitations of conventional vaccines. Precise control over particle size and surface properties enhance antigen stability and prolong antigen release. Particle size can also be modified to target specific antigen-presenting cells in order to induce specific types of effector T-cell responses. Numerous nanoparticle-based vaccines are currently being evaluated for RSV including inorganic, polymeric and virus-like particle-based formulations. Here, we review the potential advantages of using different nanoparticle formulations in a vaccine for RSV, and discuss many examples of safe, and effective vaccines currently in both preclinical and clinical stages of testing.

Modelling the household-level impact of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in a high-income setting

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infects almost all children by the age of 2 years, with the risk of hospitalisation highest in the first 6 months of life. Development and licensure of a vaccine to prevent severe RSV illness in infants is a public health priority. A recent phase 3 clinical trial estimated the efficacy of maternal vaccination at 39% over the first 90 days of life. Households play a key role in RSV transmission; however, few estimates of population-level RSV vaccine impact account for household structure.

METHODS

We simulated RSV transmission within a stochastic, individual-based model framework, using an existing demographic model, structured by age and household and parameterised with Australian data, as an exemplar of a high-income country. We modelled vaccination by immunising pregnant women and explicitly linked the immune status of each mother-infant pair. We quantified the impact on children for a range of vaccine properties and uptake levels.

RESULTS

We found that a maternal immunisation strategy would have the most substantial impact in infants younger than 3 months, reducing RSV infection incidence in this age group by 16.6% at 70% vaccination coverage. In children aged 3-6 months, RSV infection was reduced by 5.3%. Over the first 6 months of life, the incidence rate for infants born to unvaccinated mothers was 1.26 times that of infants born to vaccinated mothers. The impact in older age groups was more modest, with evidence of infections being delayed to the second year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that while individual benefit from maternal RSV vaccination could be substantial, population-level reductions may be more modest. Vaccination impact was sensitive to the extent that vaccination prevented infection, highlighting the need for more vaccine trial data.

Estimating Transmission Parameters for Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Predicting the Impact of Maternal and Pediatric Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory tract illness in young children and a major cause of hospital admissions globally.

METHODS

Here we fit age-structured transmission models with immunity propagation to data from the Netherlands (2012-2017). Data included nationwide hospitalizations with confirmed RSV, general practitioner (GP) data on attendance for care from acute respiratory infection, and virological testing of acute respiratory infections at the GP. The transmission models, equipped with key parameter estimates, were used to predict the impact of maternal and pediatric vaccination.

RESULTS

Estimates of the basic reproduction number were generally high (R0 > 10 in scenarios with high statistical support), while susceptibility was estimated to be low in nonelderly adults (<10% in persons 20-64 years) and was higher in older adults (≥65 years). Scenario analyses predicted that maternal vaccination reduces the incidence of infection in vulnerable infants (<1 year) and shifts the age of first infection from infants to young children.

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of infection in infants and young children (0-5 years), slightly increase incidence in 5 to 9-year-old children, and have minor indirect benefits.

The impact of maternal RSV vaccine to protect infants in Gavi-supported countries: Estimates from two models

•

First study examining potential impact of a maternal RSV vaccine across LMICs.

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Results from independent models to inform Gavi’s 2018 Vaccine Investment Strategy.

•

Experts and stakeholders advised on methods, assumptions, and key model inputs.

•

Substantial potential to reduce infant morbidity and mortality in Gavi countries.

Background

Interventions to protect young infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in advanced phases of development and are expected to be available in the foreseeable future. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, included maternal vaccines and infant monoclonal antibodies for RSV as part of the 2018 vaccine investment strategy (VIS) and decided to support these products subject to licensure, World Health Organization prequalification, Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recommendation, and meeting the financial assumptions used as the basis of the investment case. Impact estimates reported in this manuscript were used to inform the Gavi VIS.

Methods

We compared two independent vaccine impact models to evaluate a potential maternal RSV vaccine’s impact on infant health in 73 Gavi-supported countries. Key inputs were harmonized across both models. We analyzed various scenarios to evaluate the effect of uncertain model parameters such as vaccine efficacy, duration of infant protection, and infant disease burden. Estimates of averted cases, severe cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated over the 2023–2035 horizon.

Findings

A maternal RSV vaccine with 60% efficacy offering 5 months of infant protection implemented across 73 low- and middle-income countries could avert 10.1–12.5 million cases, 2.8–4.0 million hospitalizations, 123.7–177.7 thousand deaths, and 8.5–11.9 million DALYs among infants under 6 months of age for the duration of analysis (2023–2035). Maternal RSV vaccination was projected to avert up to 42% of estimated RSV deaths among infants under 6 months in year 2035. Alternative scenario analyses with higher disease burden assumptions showed that a maternal vaccine could avert as many as 325–355 thousand deaths among infants under 6 months.

Interpretation

RSV maternal immunization is projected to substantially reduce mortality and morbidity among young infants if introduced across Gavi-supported countries.

Funding

This work was supported by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium in Europe. The findings and conclusions contained within are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect positions or policies of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation or of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Consortium. LW is supported by Research Foundation–Flanders (1234620 N).

The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015

Introduction

Several vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are under development. Designing an effective vaccination programme for RSV requires information about the relative contribution of risk factors for severe RSV symptoms.

Aim

To inform preventive strategies in Europe by quantifying the contribution of key child, family and health service risk factors to the burden of RSV hospital admissions in young children.

Methods

We constructed a birth cohort study of all singleton children born in Scotland between October 2009 and September 2012 using linkage between birth registration, maternity, vaccination and hospital admission records, with follow-up until the age of 3 years. RSV-confirmed hospital admissions were defined using linkage to national laboratory surveillance data. We estimated hospital admission rates per 1,000 child years and length of stay according to each risk factor. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.

Results

There were 5,185 RSV admissions among the 169,726 children in the cohort: 48.6% of admissions occurred before the age of 6 months, and 29.6% after the age of 1 year. Children born prematurely, small for gestational age, between July and December, with chronic conditions, older siblings, mothers < 30 years old or delayed infant vaccination had a significantly increased risk of admission. Minimising the risk posed by older siblings could reduce RSV admissions by up to 34%.

Conclusion

Future RSV vaccination programmes must protect children throughout early childhood. Vaccination and/or interventions to reduce transmission by older siblings could substantially reduce RSV hospital admissions.

Model evaluation of target product profiles of an infant vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a developed country setting

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in children worldwide and is a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. No RSV vaccine has been licensed but a number are under development. In this work, we present two structurally distinct mathematical models, parameterized using RSV data from the UK, which have been used to explore the effect of introducing an RSV paediatric vaccine to the National programme. We have explored different vaccine properties, and dosing regimens combined with a range of implementation strategies for RSV control. The results suggest that vaccine properties that confer indirect protection have the greatest effect in reducing the burden of disease in children under 5 years. The findings are reinforced by the concurrence of predictions from the two models with very different epidemiological structure. The approach described has general application in evaluating vaccine target product profiles.

Health and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions against RSV among children under 5 years in 72 Gavi-eligible countries

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) frequently causes acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5, representing a high burden in Gavi-eligible countries (mostly low-income and lower-middle-income). Since multiple RSV interventions, including vaccines and monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates, are under development, we aim to evaluate the key drivers of the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and infant mAb for 72 Gavi countries.

METHODS

A static Multi-Country Model Application for RSV Cost-Effectiveness poLicy (MCMARCEL) was developed to follow RSV-related events monthly from birth until 5 years of age. MCMARCEL was parameterised using country- and age-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost data. The interventions' level and duration of effectiveness were guided by the World Health Organization's preferred product characteristics and other literature. Maternal vaccination and mAb were assumed to require single-dose administration at prices assumed to align with other Gavi-subsidised technologies. The effectiveness and the prices of the interventions were simultaneously varied in extensive scenario analyses. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were the primary health outcomes for cost-effectiveness, integrated with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and Expected Value of Partially Perfect Information analysis.

RESULTS

The RSV-associated disease burden among children in these 72 countries is estimated at an average of 20.8 million cases, 1.8 million hospital admissions, 40 thousand deaths, 1.2 million discounted DALYs, and US$611 million discounted direct costs. Strategy 'mAb' is more effective due to its assumed longer duration of protection versus maternal vaccination, but it was also assumed to be more expensive. Given all parameterised uncertainty, the optimal strategy of choice tends to change for increasing willingness to pay (WTP) values per DALY averted from the current situation to maternal vaccination (at WTP > US$1000) to mAB (at WTP > US$3500). The age-specific proportions of cases that are hospitalised and/or die cause most of the uncertainty in the choice of optimal strategy. Results are broadly similar across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the maternal and mAb strategies need to be competitively priced to be judged as relatively cost-effective. Information on the level and duration of protection is crucial, but also more and better disease burden evidence-especially on RSV-attributable hospitalisation and death rates-is needed to support policy choices when novel RSV products become available.

Reducing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in a lower-income country by vaccinating mothers-to-be and their households

Respiratory syncytial virus is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection among infants. RSV is a priority for vaccine development. In this study, we investigate the potential effectiveness of a two-vaccine strategy aimed at mothers-to-be, thereby boosting maternally acquired antibodies of infants, and their household cohabitants, further cocooning infants against infection. We use a dynamic RSV transmission model which captures transmission both within households and communities, adapted to the changing demographics and RSV seasonality of a low-income country. Model parameters were inferred from past RSV hospitalisations, and forecasts made over a 10-year horizon. We find that a 50% reduction in RSV hospitalisations is possible if the maternal vaccine effectiveness can achieve 75 days of additional protection for newborns combined with a 75% coverage of their birth household co-inhabitants (~7.5% population coverage).

The Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Adults and Reproductive-Aged Women

Currently available data on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease burden in adults and reproductive-aged women are limited. These data are critically needed to assist in the advancement of strategies related to maternal RSV vaccination for the passive protection of their newborn children.

Estimating the impact of multiple immunization products on medically-attended respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in infants

Background:

Palivizumab, a monoclonal antibody and the only licensed immunization product for preventing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, is recommended for children with certain high-risk conditions. Other antibody products and maternal vaccines targeting young infants are in clinical development. Few studies have compared products closest to potential licensure and have primarily focused on the effects on hospitalizations only. Estimates of the impact of these products on medically-attended (MA) infections in a variety of healthcare settings are needed to assist with developing RSV immunization recommendations.

Methods:

We developed a tool for practicing public health officials to estimate the impact of immunization strategies on RSV-associated MA lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in various healthcare settings among infants <12 months. Users input RSV burden and seasonality and examine the influence of altering product efficacy and uptake assumptions. We used the tool to evaluate candidate products’ impacts among a US birth cohort.

Results:

We estimated without immunization, 407,360 (range: 339,650–475,980) LRTIs are attended annually in outpatient clinics, 147,240 (126,070–168,510) in emergency departments (EDs), and 33,180 (24,760–42,900) in hospitals. A passive antibody candidate targeting all infants prevented the most LRTIs: 196,470 (48% of visits without immunization) outpatient clinic visits (range: 163,810–229,650), 75,250 (51%) EDs visits (64,430–86,090), and 18,140 (55%) hospitalizations (13,770–23,160). A strategy combining maternal vaccine candidate and palivizumab prevented 58,210 (14% of visits without immunization) LRTIs in outpatient clinics (range: 48,520–67,970), 19,580 (13%) in EDs (16,760–22,400), and 8,190 (25%) hospitalizations (6,390–10,150).

Conclusions:

Results underscore the potential for anticipated products to reduce serious RSV illness. Our tool (provided to readers) can be used by different jurisdictions and accept updated data. Results can aid economic evaluations and public health decision-making regarding RSV immunization products.

Childhood pneumonia in low-and-middle-income countries: An update

OBJECTIVES

To review epidemiology, aetiology and management of childhood pneumonia in low-and-middle-income countries.

DESIGN

Review of published English literature between 2013 and 2019.

RESULTS

Pneumonia remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Risk factors include young age, malnutrition, immunosuppression, tobacco smoke or air pollution exposure. Better methods for specimen collection and molecular diagnostics have improved microbiological diagnosis, indicating that pneumonia results from several organisms interacting. Induced sputum increases microbiologic yield for Bordetella pertussis or Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which has been associated with pneumonia in high TB prevalence areas. The proportion of cases due to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae b has declined with new conjugate vaccines; Staphylococcus aureus and H. influenzae non-type b are the commonest bacterial pathogens; viruses are the most common pathogens. Effective interventions comprise antibiotics, oxygen and non-invasive ventilation. New vaccines have reduced severity and incidence of disease, but disparities exist in uptake.

CONCLUSION

Morbidity and mortality from childhood pneumonia has decreased but a considerable preventable burden remains. Widespread implementation of available, effective interventions and development of novel strategies are needed.

Risk factors and patterns of household clusters of respiratory viruses in rural Nepal

Viral pneumonia is an important cause of death and morbidity among infants worldwide. Transmission of non-influenza respiratory viruses in households can inform preventative interventions and has not been well-characterised in South Asia. From April 2011 to April 2012, household members of pregnant women enrolled in a randomised trial of influenza vaccine in rural Nepal were surveyed weekly for respiratory illness until 180 days after birth. Nasal swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for respiratory viruses in symptomatic individuals. A transmission event was defined as a secondary case of the same virus within 14 days of initial infection within a household. From 555 households, 825 initial viral illness episodes occurred, resulting in 79 transmission events. The overall incidence of transmission was 1.14 events per 100 person-weeks. Risk of transmission incidence was associated with an index case age 1-4 years (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-3.96), coinfection as initial infection (IRR 1.94; 95% CI 1.05-3.61) and no electricity in household (IRR 2.70; 95% CI 1.41-5.00). Preventive interventions targeting preschool-age children in households in resource-limited settings may decrease the risk of transmission to vulnerable household members, such as young infants.

Study design and protocol for investigating social network patterns in rural and urban schools and households in a coastal setting in Kenya using wearable proximity sensors

Background: Social contact patterns shape the transmission of respiratory infections spread via close interactions. There is a paucity of observational data from schools and households, particularly in developing countries. Portable wireless sensors can record unbiased proximity events between individuals facing each other, shedding light on pathways of infection transmission.

Design and methods: The aim is to characterize face-to-face contact patterns that may shape the transmission of respiratory infections in schools and households in Kilifi, Kenya. Two schools, one each from a rural and urban area, will be purposively selected. From each school, 350 students will be randomly selected proportional to class size and gender to participate. Nine index students from each school will be randomly selected and followed-up to their households. All index household residents will be recruited into the study. A further 3-5 neighbouring households will also be recruited to give a maximum of 350 participants per household setting. The sample size per site is limited by the number of sensors available for data collection. Each participant will wear a wireless proximity sensor lying on their chest area for 7 consecutive days. Data on proximal dyadic interactions will be collected automatically by the sensors only for participants who are face-to-face. Key characteristics of interest include the distribution of degree and the frequency and duration of contacts and their variation in rural and urban areas. These will be stratified by age, gender, role, and day of the week.

Expected results: Resultant data will inform on social contact patterns in rural and urban areas of a previously unstudied population. Ensuing data will be used to parameterize mathematical simulation models of transmission of a range of respiratory viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus, and used to explore the impact of intervention measures such as vaccination and social distancing.

Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a significant respiratory disease burden in the under 5 population. The transmission pathway to young children is not fully quantified in low-income settings, and this information is required to design interventions.

METHODS

We used an individual level transmission model to infer transmission parameters using data collected from 493 individuals distributed across 47 households over a period of 6 months spanning the 2009/2010 RSV season. A total of 208 episodes of RSV were observed from 179 individuals. We model competing transmission risk from within household exposure and community exposure while making a distinction between RSV groups A and B.

RESULTS

We find that 32-53% of all RSV transmissions are between members of the same household; the rate of pair-wise transmission is 58% (95% CrI: 30-74%) lower in larger households (≥8 occupants) than smaller households; symptomatic individuals are 2-7 times more infectious than asymptomatic individuals i.e. 2.48 (95% CrI: 1.22-5.57) among symptomatic individuals with low viral load and 6.7(95% CrI: 2.56-16) among symptomatic individuals with high viral load; previous infection reduces susceptibility to re-infection within the same epidemic by 47% (95% CrI: 17%-68%) for homologous RSV group and 39% (95%CrI: -8%-69%) for heterologous group; RSV B is more frequently introduced into the household, and RSV A is more rapidly transmitted once in the household.

DISCUSSION

Our analysis presents the first transmission modelling of cohort data for RSV and we find that it is important to consider the household social structuring and household size when modelling transmission. The increased infectiousness of symptomatic individuals implies that a vaccine against RSV related disease would also have an impact on infection transmission. Together, the weak cross immunity between RSV groups and the possibility of different transmission niches could form part of the explanation for the group co-existence.

Study design and protocol for investigating social network patterns in rural and urban schools and households in a coastal setting in Kenya using wearable proximity sensors

Background: Social contact patterns shape the transmission of respiratory infections spread via close interactions. There is a paucity of observational data from schools and households, particularly in developing countries. Portable wireless sensors can record unbiased proximity events between individuals facing each other, shedding light on pathways of infection transmission. Design and methods: The aim is to characterize face-to-face contact patterns that may shape the transmission of respiratory infections in schools and households in Kilifi, Kenya. Two schools, one each from a rural and urban area, will be purposively selected. From each school, 350 students will be randomly selected proportional to class size and gender to participate. Nine index students from each school will be randomly selected and followed-up to their households. All index household residents will be recruited into the study. A further 3-5 neighbouring households will also be recruited to give a maximum of 350 participants per household setting. The sample size per site is limited by the number of sensors available for data collection. Each participant will wear a wireless proximity sensor lying on their chest area for 7 consecutive days. Data on proximal dyadic interactions will be collected automatically by the sensors only for participants who are face-to-face. Key characteristics of interest include the distribution of degree and the frequency and duration of contacts and their variation in rural and urban areas. These will be stratified by age, gender, role, and day of the week. Expected results: Resultant data will inform on social contact patterns in rural and urban areas of a previously unstudied population. Ensuing data will be used to parameterize mathematical simulation models of transmission of a range of respiratory viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus, and used to explore the impact of intervention measures such as vaccination and social distancing.

The contribution of child, family and health service factors to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospital admissions in the first 3 years of life: birth cohort study in Scotland, 2009 to 2015

IntroductionSeveral vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are under development. Designing an effective vaccination programme for RSV requires information about the relative contribution of risk factors for severe RSV symptoms.AimTo inform preventive strategies in Europe by quantifying the contribution of key child, family and health service risk factors to the burden of RSV hospital admissions in young children.MethodsWe constructed a birth cohort study of all singleton children born in Scotland between October 2009 and September 2012 using linkage between birth registration, maternity, vaccination and hospital admission records, with follow-up until the age of 3 years. RSV-confirmed hospital admissions were defined using linkage to national laboratory surveillance data. We estimated hospital admission rates per 1,000 child years and length of stay according to each risk factor. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios.ResultsThere were 5,185 RSV admissions among the 169,726 children in the cohort: 48.6% of admissions occurred before the age of 6 months, and 29.6% after the age of 1 year. Children born prematurely, small for gestational age, between July and December, with chronic conditions, older siblings, mothers < 30 years old or delayed infant vaccination had a significantly increased risk of admission. Minimising the risk posed by older siblings could reduce RSV admissions by up to 34%.ConclusionFuture RSV vaccination programmes must protect children throughout early childhood. Vaccination and/or interventions to reduce transmission by older siblings could substantially reduce RSV hospital admissions.

Respiratory syncytial virus vaccine: where are we now and what comes next?

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection in infants and elderly and to date, there is no safe or effective vaccine against RSV.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides a roadmap to RSV vaccine development. It is a journey spanning over more than half a century from the initial disappointment with inactivated formalin vaccine to the current advancements in vaccine technology. We highlight the important aspects of RSV structural biology and protective immune response. We include discussion of newer fusion glycoprotein immune targets and current vaccine candidates. We used Pub Med and Medline resources for literature search.

EXPERT OPINION

A resurgence of information on the burden related to RSV infection coupled with the newer understanding of the molecular mechanism of RSV infection has reignited a tremendous activity in RSV vaccine discovery. The vaccine pipeline is diverse and target populations are varied, thus making the goal of a safe and effective RSV vaccine in the future within reach.

A multifaceted approach to RSV vaccination

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the leading cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in infants, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition, RSV infections occur throughout different ages, thus, maintaining the virus in circulation, and increasing health risk to more susceptible populations such as infants, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. To date, there is no vaccine approved to prevent RSV infection or minimize symptoms of infection. Current clinical trials for vaccines against RSV are being carried out in four very different populations. There are vaccines that target two different pediatric populations, infants 2 to 6 month of age and seropositive children over 6 months of age, as well as women (non-pregnant or pregnant in their third trimester). There are vaccines that target adult and elderly populations. In this review, we will present and discuss RSV vaccine candidates currently in clinical trials. We will describe the preclinical studies instrumental for their advancement, with the goal of introducing new preclinical models that may more accurately predict the outcome of clinical vaccine studies.

Simulation of four respiratory viruses and inference of epidemiological parameters

While influenza has been simulated extensively to better understand its behavior and predict future outbreaks, most other respiratory viruses have seldom been simulated. In this study, we provide an overview of four common respiratory viral infections: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respiratory adenovirus, rhinovirus and parainfluenza, present specimen data collected 2004–2014, and simulate outbreaks in 19 overlapping regions in the United States. Pairing a compartmental model and data assimilation methods, we infer key epidemiological parameters governing transmission: the basic reproductive number R₀ and length of infection D. RSV had been previously simulated, and our mean estimate of D and R₀ of 5.2 days and 2.8, respectively, are within published clinical and modeling estimates. Among the four virus groupings, mean estimates of R₀ range from 2.3 to 3.0, with a lower and upper quartile range of 2.0–2.8 and 2.6–3.2, respectively. As rapid PCR testing becomes more common, estimates of the observed virulence and duration of infection for these viruses could inform decision making by clinicians and officials for managing patient treatment and response.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality and its implications on prevention strategies

With maternal and infant vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in development, it is timely to consider how the deployment of these vaccines might vary according to local RSV disease seasonality. In temperate regions RSV infection is predictably limited to a period of 3 to 5 months, while in tropical regions disease seasonality is often both more variable and more prolonged. Accordingly, in tropical regions a year-round immunisation schedule for both maternal and infant immunisation might be appropriate. In contrast, in temperate regions the benefit of year-round maternal immunisation would be heavily dependent on the duration of protection this provided, potentially necessitating a strategy directed at children due to be born in the months immediately prior to the RSV season. This review will consider the impact of seasonality on maternal and infant immunisation strategies against RSV, and the potential of an alternative approach of passive immunisation for all infants immediately prior to the RSV season.

Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6-37% for 0-2month old children, and 30-46% for 3-5month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant's first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely.

Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)

Background

Individual-based models (IBMs) are useful to simulate events subject to stochasticity and/or heterogeneity, and have become well established to model the potential (re)emergence of pathogens (e.g., pandemic influenza, bioterrorism). Individual heterogeneity at the host and pathogen level is increasingly documented to influence transmission of endemic diseases and it is well understood that the final stages of elimination strategies for vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (e.g., polio, measles) are subject to stochasticity. Even so it appears IBMs for both these phenomena are not well established. We review a decade of IBM publications aiming to obtain insights in their advantages, pitfalls and rationale for use and to make recommendations facilitating knowledge transfer within and across disciplines.

Methods

We systematically identified publications in Web of Science and PubMed from 2006-2015 based on title/abstract/keywords screening (and full-text if necessary) to retrieve topics, modeling purposes and general specifications. We extracted detailed modeling features from papers on established vaccine-preventable childhood diseases based on full-text screening.

Results

We identified 698 papers, which applied an IBM for infectious disease transmission, and listed these in a reference database, describing their general characteristics. The diversity of disease-topics and overall publication frequency have increased over time (38 to 115 annual publications from 2006 to 2015). The inclusion of intervention strategies (8 to 52) and economic consequences (1 to 20) are increasing, to the detriment of purely theoretical explorations. Unfortunately, terminology used to describe IBMs is inconsistent and ambiguous. We retrieved 24 studies on a vaccine-preventable childhood disease (covering 7 different diseases), with publication frequency increasing from the first such study published in 2008. IBMs have been useful to explore heterogeneous between- and within-host interactions, but combined applications are still sparse. The amount of missing information on model characteristics and study design is remarkable.

Conclusions

IBMs are suited to combine heterogeneous within- and between-host interactions, which offers many opportunities, especially to analyze targeted interventions for endemic infections. We advocate the exchange of (open-source) platforms and stress the need for consistent “branding”. Using (existing) conventions and reporting protocols would stimulate cross-fertilization between research groups and fields, and ultimately policy making in decades to come.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2699-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical.

Estimates of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus incidences with fraction modeling approach in Baguio City, the Philippines, 2012-2014

BACKGROUND

Estimation of the incidences of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is important for disease control. Previous estimate in the city showed a substantial burden of influenza in both outpatients and inpatients while it did not account for individuals who do not seek medical attention nor RSV.

PATIENTS/METHODS

A total of 17 674 influenza-like illness (ILI) and 13 242 severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) cases were recruited, and samples were collected from 6267 and 2962 of ILI and SARI cases, respectively. RT-PCR assays were performed to detect influenza and RSV in the samples. A health-seeking behavior survey was conducted from February 2014 to April 2014 to estimate the fraction of infected individuals who did not seek medical attention between rainy and dry season.

RESULTS

Average influenza and RSV incidence rates in outpatients were 1.6 and 1.4 per 1000 individuals, respectively, and the highest incidence rate for both viruses was found in the of 6-23 month age group. Average influenza and RSV hospitalization incidence rates were 1.7 and 1.9 per 1000 individuals, respectively. Further, we estimated that the incidence rates of influenza and RSV in individuals who did not seek medical attention were threefold and 1.6-fold those in the medically attended population.

CONCLUSIONS

Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza pose a substantial disease burden, particularly in hospitalized cases. The implementation of either a community-based approach or an enhanced surveillance system in combination with a community survey will allow a better understanding of the disease burdens of RSV and influenza in the Philippines.

Vaccines to prevent pneumonia in children - a developing country perspective

Pneumonia accounted for 15% of the 6.3 million deaths among children younger than five years in 2013, a total of approximately 935,000 deaths worldwide. Routine vaccination against common childhood illnesses has been identified as one of the most cost-effective strategies to prevent death from pneumonia. Vaccine-preventable or potentially preventable diseases commonly linked with respiratory tract infections include Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenza type-b (Hib), pertussis, influenza, measles, and tuberculosis. Although here have been great strides in the development and administration of effective vaccines, the countries that carry the largest disease burdens still struggle to vaccinate their children and newer conjugated vaccines remain out of reach for many. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) has identified priority areas for innovation in research in all aspects of immunisation development and delivery to ensure equitable access to vaccines for all.

Respiratory syncytial virus vaccines: an update on those in the immediate pipeline

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the most common causes of lower respiratory tract infection among infants and the elderly worldwide. Despite its long history, no licensed vaccine is available. Recently, advances in the knowledge of RSV biology and pathology as well as the development of new techniques to generate vaccine candidates have increased the number of promising vaccines. The aim of this review is to analyze RSV characteristics, to consider the history of RSV vaccines and to discuss RSV vaccines currently in development. Among the candidates in clinical trials, nanoparticle and subunit vaccines seem to be the most promising for pregnant women and the elderly, whereas live-attenuated or vector-based vaccines appear to be optimal for the pediatric population.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of RSV Vaccination of Infants and Pregnant Women in Turkey: An Illustration Based on Bursa Data

Background

Worldwide, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is considered to be the most important viral cause of respiratory morbidity and mortality among infants and young children. Although no active vaccine is available on the market yet, there are several active vaccine development programs in various stages. To assess whether one of these vaccines might be a future asset for national immunization programs, modeling the costs and benefits of various vaccination strategies is needed.

Objectives

To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women in Turkey.

Methods

A multi-cohort static Markov model with cycles of one month was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of vaccinated cohorts versus non-vaccinated cohorts. The 2014 Turkish birth cohort was divided by twelve to construct twelve monthly birth cohorts of equal size (111,459 new-borns). Model input was based on clinical data from a multicenter prospective study from Bursa, Turkey, combined with figures from the (inter)national literature and publicly available data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜÏK). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were expressed in Turkish Lira (TL) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

Results

Vaccinating infants at 2 and 4 months of age would prevent 145,802 GP visits, 8,201 hospitalizations and 48 deaths during the first year of life, corresponding to a total gain of 1650 QALYs. The discounted ICER was estimated at 51,969 TL (26,220 US $ in 2013) per QALY gained. Vaccinating both pregnant women and infants would prevent more cases, but was less attractive from a pure economic point of view with a discounted ICER of 61,653 TL (31,106 US $ in 2013) per QALY. Vaccinating only during pregnancy would result in fewer cases prevented than infant vaccination and a less favorable ICER.

Conclusion

RSV vaccination of infants and/or pregnant women has the potential to be cost-effective in Turkey. Although using relatively conservative assumptions, all evaluated strategies remained slightly below the threshold of 3 times the GDP per capita.

Information content of household-stratified epidemics

Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

Determinants of early life immune responses to RSV infection

Respiratory syncytial virus causes significant morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries, and a vaccine that adequately protects from severe disease remains an important unmet need. RSV disease has an inordinate impact on the very young, and the physical and immunological immaturity of early life complicates vaccine design. Defining and targeting the functional capacities of early life immune responses and controlling responses during primary antigen exposure with selected vaccine delivery approaches will be important for protecting infants by active immunization. Alternatively, vaccination of older children and pregnant mothers may ameliorate disease burden indirectly until infants reach about six months of age, when they can generate more effective anti-RSV immune responses.

Progress toward a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine

In accompanying papers (P. L. Acosta, M. T. Caballero, and F. P. Polack, Clin Vaccine Immunol 23:189-195, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/CVI.00609-15; M. Vissers, I. M. L. Ahout, M. I. de Jonge, and G. Ferwerda, Clin Vaccine Immunol 23:243-245, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/CVI.00590-15) in this issue of Clinical and Vaccine Immunology, the history of and immune mechanisms underlying vaccine-enhanced respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and of investigations of mucosal antibodies and their association with viral load in RSV-infected children, respectively, are described. This commentary discusses RSV vaccine candidates, target populations, and the challenges associated with achieving a safe and effective vaccine.