Cost-benefit analysis of vaccination: a comparative analysis of eight approaches for valuing changes to mortality and morbidity risks

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of 'Lassa-X'-a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant-and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1-3.4 million) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over 10 years in 2.0 million (793,800-3.9 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified 'endemic' districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1 million ($8.2-$39.0 million) in lost DALY value and $128.2 million ($67.2-$231.9 million) in societal costs (2021 international dollars ($)). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2 million DALYs within 2 years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7M (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1M-3.4M) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over ten years in 2.0M (793.8K-3.9M) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified "endemic" districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1M ($8.2M-$39.0M) in lost DALY value and $128.2M ($67.2M-$231.9M) in societal costs (International dollars 2021). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2M DALYs within two years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease, and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

The broader benefits of vaccines: methodologies for inclusion in economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

As the societal value of vaccines is increasingly recognized, there is a need to examine methodological approaches that could be used to integrate these various benefits in the economic evaluation of a vaccine.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A literature review and two expert panel meetings explored methodologies to value herd immunity, health spillover effects (beyond herd immunity), impact on antimicrobial resistance, productivity, and equity implications of vaccines.

RESULTS

The consideration of broader benefits of vaccines in economic evaluation is complicated and necessitates technical expertise. Whereas methodologies to account for herd immunity and work productivity are relatively well established, approaches to investigate equity implications are developing and less frequently applied. Modeling the potential impact on antimicrobial resistance not only depends on the multi-faceted causal relationship between vaccination and resistance but also on data availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Different methods are available to value the broad impact of vaccines, and it is important that analysts are aware of their strengths and limitations and justify their choice of method. In the future, we expect that an increasing number of economic evaluations will consider the broader benefits of vaccines as part of their base-case analysis or in sensitivity analyses.

Analyses of the return on investment of public health interventions: a scoping review and recommendations for future studies

Return on investment (ROI) analysis is increasingly being used for evaluating the value for money of public health interventions. Given its potential role for informing health policies, it is important that there is a more comprehensive understanding of ROI analysis within the global health field. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a scoping review of recent research articles reporting an ROI metric for a health intervention within the public sector in any country setting. The database search was limited to literature published in English and studies published between 1 January 2018 and 14 June 2021. Uses and settings where the ROI metric is being applied, key methodological features of the calculations and the types of economic benefits included were extracted. 118 relevant studies were included within this scoping review. We found that ROI analyses of health interventions differed between those that only included fiscal savings (such as prevented medical expenses) and those which incorporated a wider range of benefits (such as monetised health benefits). This highlights the variation in the definition of ROI analyses and supports the finding that ROI analyses are used for a range of different research questions/purposes within the healthcare sector. We also found that the methodologies used in ROI calculations were inconsistent and often poorly reported. This review demonstrates that there is notable variation in the methodology surrounding recent ROI calculations of healthcare interventions, as well as the definition of ROI analysis. We recommend that ROI metrics should be carefully interpreted before they are used to inform policy decisions regarding the allocation of healthcare resources. To improve the consistency of future studies, we also set out recommended use cases for ROI analysis and a reporting checklist.

Quantifying the economic gains associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the Canadian population: A cost-benefit analysis

Background

Vaccination has been a key part of Canada's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response. Although the clinical benefits of vaccination are clear, an understanding of the population-level benefits of vaccination relative to the programmatic costs is of value. The objective of this article is to quantify the economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination in the Canadian population between December 2020 and March 2022.

Methods

We conducted a model-based cost-benefit analysis of Canada's COVID-19 vaccination program. We used an epidemiological model to estimate the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, post-COVID condition (PCC) cases, and deaths in the presence and absence of vaccination. Median, lower and upper 95% credible interval (95% CrI) outcome values from 100 model simulations were used to estimate the direct and indirect costs of illness, including the value of health. We used a societal perspective and a 1.5% discount rate.

Results

We estimated that the costs of the vaccination program were far outweighed by the savings associated with averted infections and associated downstream consequences. Vaccination increased the net benefit by CAD $298.1 billion (95% CrI: 27.2-494.6) compared to the no vaccination counterfactual. The largest benefits were due to averted premature mortality, resulting in an estimated $222.0 billion (95% CrI: 31.2-379.0) benefit.

Conclusion

Our model-based economic evaluation provides a retrospective assessment of COVID-19 vaccination during the first 16 months of the program in Canada and suggests that it was welfare-improving, considering the decreased hospitalizations and use of healthcare resources, deaths averted and lower morbidity from conditions such as PCC.

Multi-dimensional potential factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine booster acceptance and hesitancy among university academic community in Bangladesh: A cross-sectional comparative study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Vaccination is the most powerful public health intervention proven to be safe and effective in the battle against the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite the potential therapeutic benefits of primer vaccine dosage regimens, public perceptions of COVID-19 vaccine booster dose (VBD) acceptance and hesitancy vary among various sub-group populations. This study investigates COVID-19 vaccine booster dose acceptance and compares the multi-dimensional potential factors influencing VBD acceptance and hesitancy among university teachers and the student community in Bangladesh.

METHODS

This web-based cross-sectional study employed an anonymous, validated, and self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire items were adopted from a theoretical analysis of the recent relevant literature. The questionnaire was deployed in an on-line-enabled format (Google form) and conveniently distributed to 685 teachers and 990 students between 15th June, 2022 and 15th August, 2022 which resulted in the participation of 1250 (505 teachers vs.745 students) total respondents (response rate 73.72% vs. 75.25%) from various universities in Bangladesh. A non-parametric analytical tool (binary logistic regression) was applied to rationalize the study objectives and a Chi-squared test was performed to estimate the booster- hesitant risky group.

RESULTS

The pooled COVID-19 vaccine booster dose acceptance rates were 84.6% (95% CI 81.5─87.7) and 67.2% (95% CI 63.8─70.6) for teachers and students in the university academic community, respectively. In employing a binary logistic regression, this study revealed that out of twelve (12)multi-dimensional key predictors, "equal safety", "risk-benefit ratio", and "variant control" had a significant positive association with VBD acceptance in both sets (p = 0.000, p = 0.000, and p = 0.005, respectively). Varied effects were found for several predictors; post-vaccination "side effects" had a significant negative association (p = 0.020) and "community protection" had significant positive association (p = 0.034) with vaccine booster dose acceptance in the teachers community while these variables were insignificant in the students cohort. "Trust" had a highly significant positive association (p = 0.000);"communication" and "academic attainment" had significant positive associations (p = 0.033 and 0.024, respectively) with VBD acceptance in the students cohort, while these predictors were insignificant in the teachers community. Women were more likely to receive a third dose of the vaccine (OR = 1.4 vs. 0.9 between teacher and student model); however, no significant association between gender and booster vaccine acceptance was found in a comparative Chi-squared model. Therefore, statistically, the booster vaccine-hesitant risky group was not found to implicate the massive booster vaccine drive among the university academic community.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 booster vaccine acceptability among the student cohort was slightly lower than pre-roll-out intent. The teacher community was more inclined to get booster vaccinated. Moreover, differences were found between the multi-dimensional potential factors associated with VBD acceptance among teachers and students in university settings. This study explicitly confirmed positive attitudes toward the safety, health benefits, and variants control of the COVID-19 VBD under any circumstances. Post-vaccination side effect concern was found to be a barrier to administering booster shots and a reason for booster skepticism. Tailored communication and health education interventions need to be adopted to improve the public awareness of booster vaccine consequences, and limit booster skepticism.

Cost-benefit analysis of rotavirus vaccine included in the national immunization program in China

BACKGROUND

Globally, rotavirus is a leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among children aged under 5 years and has a significant economic cost. Currently, rotavirus vaccines are only included in the private market in China. This study aimed to assess the cost-benefit of including a three-dose rotavirus vaccine in China's National Immunization Program (NIP).

METHODS

A decision tree Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-benefit of universal immunization with three doses of rotavirus vaccine for a 2019 birth cohort of Chinese children. Costs of the universal vaccination program included vaccine price, vaccine wastage, vaccine administration, and indirect costs. All costs were discounted at 3 % per year and converted from 2019 Chinese Yuan to 2019 USD using the 2019 exchange rate.

RESULTS

For the 2019 birth cohort of Chinese infants, inclusion of RotaTeq in NIP was estimated to prevent 5,677,911 cases of rotavirus infection, with net savings of $1.1 billion in total societal costs. A cost of $17.55 per vaccine dose was the threshold at which inclusion of rotavirus vaccine in NIP would be cost-saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing rotavirus vaccine into the China NIP would have significant costs from a societal perspective at the current private market price.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine in Iran

Despite increasing global attention to the national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program, this program is controversial in Iran. Evidence indicates that HPV vaccination is not cost-effective in Iran. Using cost-effectiveness analysis for decision-making about public health interventions such as vaccination is controversial because its potential benefits may not fit this framework. This study aimed to evaluate the economic effects of the HPV vaccination by cost-benefit analysis (CBA) using bivalent and quadrivalent in Iran in 2020. We performed a CBA from a societal perspective. We used two approaches of the vaccine's economic benefits: willingness to pay by discrete choice experiment and cost of illness. Costs only included the vaccine cost. The cost of two doses of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were US $29 and the US $151, respectively (US $1 = IRR 42,000). The benefits of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were US $ - 432, US $380 per person using the willingness to pay approach, and they were US $7375 and US $6590 thorough cost-of-illness approach. The cost-benefit ratio (CBR) of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines was - 15.11 and 2.51 by the willingness to pay approach, and 258.12 and 43.51 by the cost of illness approach. This study confirms the benefits of the national bivalent and quadrivalent vaccination programs and provides reliable evidence for policy-makers programming HPV vaccination.

Value of the Immunization Program for Children in the 2017 US Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the economic impact of routine childhood immunization in the United States, reflecting updated vaccine recommendations and recent data on epidemiology and coverage rates.

METHODS

An economic model followed the 2017 US birth cohort from birth through death; impact was modeled via a decision tree for each of the vaccines recommended for children by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices as of 2017 (with annual influenza vaccine considered in scenario analysis). Using information on historic prevaccine and vaccine-era incidence and disease costs, we calculated disease cases, deaths, disease-related healthcare costs, and productivity losses without and with vaccination, as well as vaccination program costs. We estimated cases and deaths averted because of vaccination, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained because of vaccination, incremental costs (2019 US dollars), and the overall benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of routine childhood immunization from the societal and healthcare payer perspectives.

RESULTS

Over the cohort's lifetime, routine childhood immunization prevented over 17 million cases of disease and 31 000 deaths; 853 000 life years and 892 000 quality-adjusted life-years were gained. Estimated vaccination costs ($8.5 billion) were fully offset by the $63.6 billion disease-related averted costs. Routine childhood immunization was associated with $55.1 billion (BCR of 7.5) and $13.7 billion (BCR of 2.8) in averted costs from a societal and healthcare payer perspective, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to preventing unnecessary morbidity and mortality, routine childhood immunization is cost-saving. Continued maintenance of high vaccination coverage is necessary to ensure sustained clinical and economic benefits of the vaccination program.

An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England against SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

Children and young persons are known to have a high number of close interactions, often within the school environment, which can facilitate rapid spread of infection; yet for SARS-CoV-2, it is the elderly and vulnerable that suffer the greatest health burden. Vaccination, initially targeting the elderly and vulnerable before later expanding to the entire adult population, has been transformative in the control of SARS-CoV-2 in England. However, early concerns over adverse events and the lower risk associated with infection in younger individuals means that the expansion of the vaccine programme to those under 18 years of age needs to be rigorously and quantitatively assessed.

METHODS

Here, using a bespoke mathematical model matched to case and hospital data for England, we consider the potential impact of vaccinating 12-17 and 5-11-year-olds. This analysis is reported from an early model (generated in June 2021) that formed part of the evidence base for the decisions in England, and a later model (from November 2021) that benefits from a richer understanding of vaccine efficacy, greater knowledge of the Delta variant wave and uses data on the rate of vaccine administration. For both models, we consider the population wide impact of childhood vaccination as well as the specific impact on the age groups targeted for vaccination.

RESULTS

Projections from June suggested that an expansion of the vaccine programme to those 12-17 years old could generate substantial reductions in infection, hospital admission and deaths in the entire population, depending on population behaviour following the relaxation of control measures. The benefits within the 12-17-year-old cohort were less marked, saving between 660 and 1100 (95% PI (prediction interval) 280-2300) hospital admissions and between 22 and 38 (95% PI 9-91) deaths depending on assumed population behaviour. For the more recent model, the benefits within this age group are reduced, saving on average 630 (95% PI 300-1300) hospital admissions and 11 (95% PI 5-28) deaths for 80% vaccine uptake, while the benefits to the wider population represent a reduction of 8-10% in hospital admissions and deaths. The vaccination of 5-11-year-olds is projected to have a far smaller impact, in part due to the later roll-out of vaccines to this age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination of 12-170-year-olds and 5-11-year-olds is projected to generate a reduction in infection, hospital admission and deaths for both the age groups involved and the population in general. For any decision involving childhood vaccination, these benefits needs to be balanced against potential adverse events from the vaccine, the operational constraints on delivery and the potential for diverting resources from other public health campaigns.

Acceptance and application of a broad population health perspective when evaluating vaccine

The traditional health economic analysis is limited to estimating the impact on the treated patient. As vaccines are usually aimed at preventing infectious diseases, they may be associated with additional values for the non-treated wider population. Although there are valid reasons for treating vaccines differently, and a wide support for a broader perspective in the literature (i.e., beyond the net costs and health gain related to the outcome for the vaccinated individual), it remains unclear to what extent the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies accept and apply a broader perspective.

The purpose of this study is to examine and discuss what type of consequences are relevant for a health economic analysis of vaccines and which consequences are considered by HTA agencies. The study includes a strategic review of literature and HTA decisions in Sweden and other countries, online round-table discussions with stakeholders in Sweden, and a basic estimation of the value of a COVID-19 vaccination in Sweden.

The study shows that, other than herd effect, broader economic consequences for the population are generally not included in the economic evaluation of vaccines. Also, all economic consequences for the treated patient (production loss) and caregiver (health loss) are not always considered. The perspective chosen can have a major impact on the outcome of the analysis. A vaccine for COVID-19 is estimated to provide a value of €744–€956 per dose when using a societal perspective including broader consequences for the population.

Providing a complete and appropriate picture of the value of vaccination is of importance to allocate resources efficiently, to provide incentives for vaccine development, and to show the cost of delaying decisions to implement a new vaccine.

The Value(s) of Vaccination: Building the Scientific Evidence According to a Value-Based Healthcare Approach

Objectives

To provide a new value-based immunization approach collating the available scientific evidence on the topic.

Methods

Four value pillars (personal, allocative, technical, and societal) applied to vaccination field were investigated. A systematic literature review was performed querying three database from December 24th, 2010 to May 27th, 2020. It included studies on vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) that mentioned the term value in any part and which were conducted in advanced economies. An in-depth analysis was performed on studies addressing value as key element.

Results

Overall, 107 studies were considered. Approximately half of the studies addressed value as a key element but in most of cases (83.3%) only a single pillar was assessed. Furthermore, the majority of papers addressed the technical value by looking only at classical methods for economic assessment of vaccinations whereas very few dealt with societal and allocative pillars.

Conclusions

Estimating the vaccinations value is very complex, even though their usefulness is certain. The assessment of the whole value of vaccines and vaccinations is still limited to some domains and should encompass the wider impact on economic growth and societies.

Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 Explanation and Elaboration: A Report of the ISPOR CHEERS II Good Practices Task Force

Health economic evaluations are comparative analyses of alternative courses of action in terms of their costs and consequences. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement, published in 2013, was created to ensure health economic evaluations are identifiable, interpretable, and useful for decision making. It was intended as guidance to help authors report accurately which health interventions were being compared and in what context, how the evaluation was undertaken, what the findings were, and other details that may aid readers and reviewers in interpretation and use of the study. The new CHEERS 2022 statement replaces the previous CHEERS reporting guidance. It reflects the need for guidance that can be more easily applied to all types of health economic evaluation, new methods and developments in the field, and the increased role of stakeholder involvement including patients and the public. It is also broadly applicable to any form of intervention intended to improve the health of individuals or the population, whether simple or complex, and without regard to context (such as healthcare, public health, education, and social care). This Explanation and Elaboration Report presents the new CHEERS 2022 28-item checklist with recommendations and explanation and examples for each item. The CHEERS 2022 statement is primarily intended for researchers reporting economic evaluations for peer-reviewed journals and the peer reviewers and editors assessing them for publication. Nevertheless, we anticipate familiarity with reporting requirements will be useful for analysts when planning studies. It may also be useful for health technology assessment bodies seeking guidance on reporting, given that there is an increasing emphasis on transparency in decision making.

In the era of rapid mRNA-based vaccines: Why is there no effective hepatitis C virus vaccine yet?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is responsible for no less than 71 million people chronically infected and is one of the most frequent indications for liver transplantation worldwide. Despite direct-acting antiviral therapies fuel optimism in controlling HCV infections, there are several obstacles regarding treatment accessibility and reinfection continues to remain a possibility. Indeed, the majority of new HCV infections in developed countries occur in people who inject drugs and are more plausible to get reinfected. To achieve global epidemic control of this virus the development of an effective prophylactic or therapeutic vaccine becomes a must. The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic led to auspicious vaccine development against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus, which has renewed interest on fighting HCV epidemic with vaccination. The aim of this review is to highlight the current situation of HCV vaccine candidates designed to prevent and/or to reduce HCV infectious cases and their complications. We will emphasize on some of the crossroads encountered during vaccine development against this insidious virus, together with some key aspects of HCV immunology which have, so far, hampered the progress in this area. The main focus will be on nucleic acid-based as well as recombinant viral vector-based vaccine candidates as the most novel vaccine approaches, some of which have been recently and successfully employed for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Finally, some ideas will be presented on which methods to explore for the design of live-attenuated vaccines against HCV.

An Introduction to the Main Types of Economic Evaluations Used for Informing Priority Setting and Resource Allocation in Healthcare: Key Features, Uses, and Limitations

Economic evidence is increasingly being used for informing health policies. However, the underlining principles of health economic analyses are not always fully understood by non-health economists, and inappropriate types of analyses, as well as inconsistent methodologies, may be being used for informing health policy decisions. In addition, there is a lack of open access information and methodological guidance targeted to public health professionals, particularly those based in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive and accessible introduction to economic evaluations for public health professionals with a focus on LMIC settings. We cover the main principles underlining the most common types of full economic evaluations used in healthcare decision making in the context of priority setting (namely cost-effectiveness/cost-utility analyses, cost-benefit analyses), and outline their key features, strengths and weaknesses. It is envisioned that this will help those conducting such analyses, as well as stakeholders that need to interpret their output, gain a greater understanding of these methods and help them select/distinguish between the different approaches. In particular, we highlight the need for greater awareness of the methods used to place a monetary value on the health benefits of interventions, and the potential for such estimates to be misinterpreted. Specifically, the economic benefits reported are typically an approximation, summarising the health benefits experienced by a population monetarily in terms of individual preferences or potential productivity gains, rather than actual realisable or fiscal monetary benefits to payers or society.

Mothers' preferences and willingness-to-pay for human papillomavirus vaccines in Iran: A discrete choice experiment study

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The relative importance for serious side effects was the highest among all attributes.

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Mothers express more WTP for the quadrivalent vaccine compared to bivalent due to its protection against genital warts.

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Quadrivalent vaccination could be the most suitable candidate for implementation in the national immunization schedule.

This study aimed to identify mothers’ preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines (in this case, bivalent and quadrivalent) in Iran. We used a discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to present mothers with choices between two hypothetical profiles of vaccines, described by combinations of five attributes, each with two or three levels. We analyzed the DCE results using conditional logistic regression and measured WTP estimates for each attribute. Our response rate was 53.96%, while the completion rate for questioner was 93.57%. We identified protection against cervical cancer, protection against genital warts, protection duration, serious side effects, and cost to influence mothers’ preferences for HPV vaccination. The relative importance for serious side effects was the highest among all attributes. Mothers’ WTP for bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines was in US $ −432 (US $1 = IRR 42,000) and US $ 380, respectively. Quadrivalent vaccination could be the most suitable candidate for implementing the national immunization schedule. The reason is that mothers express more WTP for the quadrivalent vaccine than bivalent due to its protection against genital warts.

Parents' willingness to pay for a COVID-19 vaccine for themselves and their children in the United States

Differences in obtaining a vaccine vary based on a multitude of factors including perceptions of vaccine safety, efficacy and willingness to pay (WTP). This study focuses on parent perceptions toward a vaccine for COVID-19 including their WTP decisions for their children and themselves. A mixed methods design using a cross-sectional survey was used to assess the perceptions of US parents, with children under 18, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey was administered online in November 2020 and 584 final responses were collected. The questionnaire consisted of approximately 37 closed and open-ended questions regarding personal background information; awareness, knowledge, and experience of the virus; perception toward vaccines and COVID-19; and the contingent valuation of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine. WTP was found to be higher for children and a direct relationship between the number of children and WTP was observed. Parents were willing to pay US$228-$291 for a vaccine for themselves and US$243-US$321 for their children. A positive impact on WTP was found with self-reported parent health status but not children. The findings of this study have important implications for policy programs which require detailed cost-benefit analyses. WTP for a COVID-19 vaccine is crucial to determine the partial benefits of vaccinating to reduce the risk of repetitive widespread outbreaks.

Modelling the size, cost and health impacts of universal basic income: What can be done in advance of a trial?

Opposition to Universal Basic Income (UBI) is encapsulated by Martinelli’s claim that ‘an affordable basic income would be inadequate, and an adequate basic income would be unaffordable’. In this article, we present a model of health impact that transforms that assumption. We argue that UBI can affect higher level social determinants of health down to individual determinants of health and on to improvements in public health that lead to a number of economic returns on investment. Given that no trial has been designed and deployed with that impact in mind, we present a methodological framework for assessing prospective costs and returns on investment through modelling to make the case for that trial. We begin by outlining the pathways to health in our model of change in order to present criteria for establishing the size of transfer capable of promoting health. We then consider approaches to calculating cost in a UK context to estimate budgetary burdens that need to be met by the state. Next, we suggest means of modelling the prospective impact of UBI on health before asserting means of costing that impact, using a microsimulation approach. We then outline a set of fiscal options for funding any shortfall in returns. Finally, we suggest that fiscal strategy can be designed specifically with health impact in mind by modelling the impact of reform on health and feeding that data cyclically back into tax transfer module of the microsimulation.

Evaluating Vaccination Programs That Prevent Diseases With Potentially Catastrophic Health Outcomes: How Can We Capture the Value of Risk Reduction?

In the last 5 years, guidelines have been developed for performing cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) for the economic evaluation of vaccination programs against infectious diseases. However, these cost-effectiveness guidelines do not provide specific guidance for including the value of reducing the risk of rare but potentially catastrophic health outcomes, such as mortality or long-term sequelae. Alternative economic evaluation methods, including extended CEA, the impact inventory, cost-benefit analyses, willingness to pay or the value of a statistical life, to capture the value of this risk reduction could provide more complete estimates of the value of vaccination programs for diseases with potentially catastrophic health and nonhealth outcomes. In this commentary, using invasive meningococcal disease as an example, we describe these alternative approaches along with examples to illustrate how the benefits of vaccination in reducing risk of catastrophic health outcomes can be valued. These benefits are not usually captured in CEAs that only include population benefits estimated as the quality-adjusted life-years gained and reduced costs from avoided cases.

The State of Vaccine Confidence in Poland: A 2019 Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey

Vaccination is considered as one of the most successful and cost-effective public health interventions. This study aimed to assess (1) the attitudes and behaviors towards mandatory childhood vaccination, with particular emphasis on socio-economic factors determining the vaccine confidence among adults in Poland as well as to (2) identify the potential impact of anti-vaccination movement on vaccination coverage among children and adolescents aged ≤19 years. This cross-sectional study was carried in 2019 on a nationwide, representative sample of 1079 individuals aged 18 and over in Poland (53.7% females). Most of the respondents (74.6%) agreed or strongly agreed that mandatory vaccinations are safe, and only 8% of participants neglected the safety of vaccines. The results of multivariate analysis showed that the lowest level of vaccine confidence was observed among participants aged 25–34 years (aOR: 0.48, 95%CI: 0.29–0.80; p = 0.01). There was a positive correlation (r = 0.35; p < 0.001) between trust in doctors and vaccine confidence. Moreover, there was a positive correlation between trust in scientific knowledge and vaccine confidence (r = 0.19; p < 0.001). Also, a negative correlation (r = −0.13; p < 0.001) between trust in horoscopes and vaccine confidence was observed. Most of the parents declared (97.7%), that their children were vaccinated following the national immunization programme. However, 8.5% of parents who currently vaccinated their children declared that they would stop vaccinating children when vaccination obligation will be abolished. This study demonstrates relatively high confidence in mandatory vaccination among adults in Poland. While most of society trusts in vaccine safety, young adults are the least trustful of vaccinations.

Conducting a Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transitional Care Programmes: The Key Challenges and Recommendations

Transitional care encompasses a range of services designed to promote care integration as patients transfer between different locations or different levels of care. Transitional care programmes have been proven to produce positive outcomes in reducing hospital readmissions and improving patients’ health outcomes. However, little is known about the benefits of the programmes on healthcare cost and the published results have been inconsistent. With increasing healthcare expenditures and limited public healthcare resources, cost-benefit analyses become paramount in informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. This perspective paper describes the approaches used in estimating the total costs of a bundle of transitional care services from an academic medical centre, identifies the key methodological challenges encountered in the process of cost-benefit analysis, and recommends potential solutions to tackle these challenges. By providing a comprehensive perspective on the methodological challenges, this paper encourages program evaluators to take these possible challenges into consideration for future cost-benefit analyses.

Why vaccines matter: understanding the broader health, economic, and child development benefits of routine vaccination

The direct benefits of childhood vaccination in reducing the burden of disease morbidity and mortality in a cost-effective manner are well-established. By preventing episodes of vaccine-preventable diseases, vaccination can also help avert associated out-of-pocket medical expenses, healthcare provider costs, and losses in wages of patients and caregivers. Studies have associated vaccines positively with cognition and school attainment, suggesting benefits of long-term improved economic productivity. New evidence suggests that the measles vaccine may improve immunological memory and prevent co-infections, thereby forming a protective shield against other infections, and consequently improving health, cognition, schooling and productivity outcomes well into the adolescence and adulthood in low-income settings. Systematically documenting these broader health, economic, and child development benefits of vaccines is important from a policy perspective, not only in low and middle-income countries where the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases is high and public resources are constrained, but also in high-income settings where the emergence of vaccine hesitancy poses a threat to benefits gained from reducing vaccine-preventable diseases. In this paper, we provide a brief summary of the recent evidence on the benefits of vaccines, and discuss the policy implications of these findings.