Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19

Darwin review: the evolution of virulence in human pathogens

By definition, all pathogens cause some level of harm to their hosts. If this harm occurs while the pathogen is transmitting, it can negatively affect the pathogen's fitness by shortening the duration over which transmission can occur. However, many of the factors that increase virulence (i.e. harm to host) also promote transmission, driving the pathogen population towards an optimal state of intermediate virulence. A wider spectrum of virulence may be maintained among pathogen populations which are structured into multiple discrete strains though direct resource and immune-mediated competition. These various evolutionary outcomes, and the effects of medical and public health interventions, are best understood within a framework that recognizes the complex relationship between transmission and virulence in the context of the antigenic diversity of the pathogen population.

Immune imprinting and next-generation coronavirus vaccines

Vaccines based on historical virus isolates provide limited protection from continuously evolving RNA viruses, such as influenza viruses or coronaviruses, which occasionally spill over between animals and humans. Despite repeated booster immunizations, population-wide declines in the neutralization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have occurred. This has been compared to seasonal influenza vaccinations in humans, where the breadth of immune responses induced by repeat exposures to antigenically distinct influenza viruses is confounded by pre-existing immunity-a mechanism known as imprinting. Since its emergence, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved in a population with partial immunity, acquired by infection, vaccination or both. Here we critically examine the evidence for and against immune imprinting in host humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 and its implications for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccine programmes.

The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants

Introduction

A key feature of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with different transmission characteristics. However, when a novel variant arrives in a host population, it will not necessarily lead to many cases. Instead, it may fade out, due to stochastic effects and the level of immunity in the population. Immunity against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants may be influenced by prior exposures to related viruses, such as other SARS-CoV-2 variants and seasonal coronaviruses, and the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by those exposures.

Methods

Here, we investigate the impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in a simplified scenario in which a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant is introduced after an antigenically related virus has spread in the population. We use mathematical modelling to explore the risk that the novel variant invades the population and causes a large number of cases, as opposed to fading out with few cases.

Results

We find that, if cross-reactive immunity is complete (i.e. someone infected by the previously circulating virus is not susceptible to the novel variant), the novel variant must be more transmissible than the previous virus to invade the population. However, in a more realistic scenario in which cross-reactive immunity is partial, we show that it is possible for novel variants to invade, even if they are less transmissible than previously circulating viruses. This is because partial cross-reactive immunity effectively increases the pool of susceptible hosts that are available to the novel variant compared to complete cross-reactive immunity. Furthermore, if previous infection with the antigenically related virus assists the establishment of infection with the novel variant, as has been proposed following some experimental studies, then even variants with very limited transmissibility are able to invade the host population.

Discussion

Our results highlight that fast assessment of the level of cross-reactive immunity conferred by related viruses against novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is an essential component of novel variant risk assessments.

Natural selection of immune and metabolic genes associated with health in two lowland Bolivian populations

A growing body of work has addressed human adaptations to diverse environments using genomic data, but few studies have connected putatively selected alleles to phenotypes, much less among underrepresented populations such as Amerindians. Studies of natural selection and genotype-phenotype relationships in underrepresented populations hold potential to uncover previously undescribed loci underlying evolutionarily and biomedically relevant traits. Here, we worked with the Tsimane and the Moseten, two Amerindian populations inhabiting the Bolivian lowlands. We focused most intensively on the Tsimane, because long-term anthropological work with this group has shown that they have a high burden of both macro and microparasites, as well as minimal cardiometabolic disease or dementia. We therefore generated genome-wide genotype data for Tsimane individuals to study natural selection, and paired this with blood mRNA-seq as well as cardiometabolic and immune biomarker data generated from a larger sample that included both populations. In the Tsimane, we identified 21 regions that are candidates for selective sweeps, as well as 5 immune traits that show evidence for polygenic selection (e.g., C-reactive protein levels and the response to coronaviruses). Genes overlapping candidate regions were strongly enriched for known involvement in immune-related traits, such as abundance of lymphocytes and eosinophils. Importantly, we were also able to draw on extensive phenotype information for the Tsimane and Moseten and link five regions (containing PSD4, MUC21 and MUC22, TOX2, ANXA6, and ABCA1) with biomarkers of immune and metabolic function. Together, our work highlights the utility of pairing evolutionary analyses with anthropological and biomedical data to gain insight into the genetic basis of health-related traits.

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Early cross-coronavirus reactive signatures of humoral immunity against COVID-19

The introduction of vaccines has inspired hope in the battle against SARS-CoV-2. However, the emergence of viral variants, in the absence of potent antivirals, has left the world struggling with the uncertain nature of this disease. Antibodies currently represent the strongest correlate of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, thus we profiled the earliest humoral signatures in a large cohort of acutely ill (survivors and nonsurvivors) and mild or asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19. Although a SARS-CoV-2–specific immune response evolved rapidly in survivors of COVID-19, nonsurvivors exhibited blunted and delayed humoral immune evolution, particularly with respect to S2-specific antibodies. Given the conservation of S2 across β-coronaviruses, we found that the early development of SARS-CoV-2–specific immunity occurred in tandem with preexisting common β-coronavirus OC43 humoral immunity in survivors, which was also selectively expanded in individuals that develop a paucisymptomatic infection. These data point to the importance of cross-coronavirus immunity as a correlate of protection against COVID-19.

Multi-Subunit SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Design Using Evolutionarily Conserved T- and B- Cell Epitopes

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has created a public health crisis worldwide. Although vaccines against the virus are efficiently being rolled out, they are proving to be ineffective against certain emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The high degree of sequence similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses (HCoV) presents the opportunity for designing vaccines that may offer protection against SARS-CoV-2 and its emerging variants, with cross-protection against other HCoVs. In this study, we performed bioinformatics analyses to identify T and B cell epitopes originating from spike, membrane, nucleocapsid, and envelope protein sequences found to be evolutionarily conserved among seven major HCoVs. Evolutionary conservation of these epitopes indicates that they may have critical roles in viral fitness and are, therefore, unlikely to mutate during viral replication thus making such epitopes attractive candidates for a vaccine. Our designed vaccine construct comprises of twelve T and six B cell epitopes that are conserved among HCoVs. The vaccine is predicted to be soluble in water, stable, have a relatively long half-life, and exhibit low allergenicity and toxicity. Our docking results showed that the vaccine forms stable complex with toll-like receptor 4, while the immune simulations predicted that the vaccine may elicit strong IgG, IgM, and cytotoxic T cell responses. Therefore, from multiple perspectives, our multi-subunit vaccine design shows the potential to elicit a strong immune-protective response against SARS-CoV-2 and its emerging variants while carrying minimal risk for causing adverse effects.

Early cross-coronavirus reactive signatures of protective humoral immunity against COVID-19

The introduction of vaccines has inspired new hope in the battle against SARS-CoV-2. However, the emergence of viral variants, in the absence of potent antivirals, has left the world struggling with the uncertain nature of this disease. Antibodies currently represent the strongest correlate of immunity against COVID-19, thus we profiled the earliest humoral signatures in a large cohort of severe and asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals. While a SARS-CoV-2-specific immune response evolved rapidly in survivors of COVID-19, non-survivors exhibited blunted and delayed humoral immune evolution, particularly with respect to S2-specific antibody evolution. Given the conservation of S2 across β-coronaviruses, we found the early development of SARS-CoV-2-specific immunity occurred in tandem with pre-existing common β-coronavirus OC43 humoral immunity in survivors, which was selectively also expanded in individuals that develop paucisymptomatic infection. These data point to the importance of cross-coronavirus immunity as a correlate of protection against COVID-19.

Moderate Red Wine Consumption Increases the Expression of Longevity-Associated Genes in Controlled Human Populations and Extends Lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster

The beneficial effects of moderate red wine consumption on cardiovascular health are well known. The composition of red wine includes several compounds, such as the phytoestrogen resveratrol, that exert these beneficial effects, although not all the mechanisms by which they act are known. Our aim was to study the effect of red wine consumption on longevity-related genes in controlled human populations, such as cloistered nuns. We found that the expression of catalase, manganese-superoxide dismutase, Sirt1, and p53 was increased in peripheral blood mononuclear cells after 14 days of moderate red wine consumption. This increase was accompanied by an enhanced metabolic wellness: fatty acids, cholesterol, branched chain amino acids (isoleucine and leucine), ketone bodies (acetoacetate), bacterial co-metabolites (trimethylamine), and cellular antioxidants (taurine) contributed to a change in metabolic profile after moderate red wine consumption by the nuns. No serious unwanted side effects were observed. Finally, we tested the effect of moderate red wine consumption on longevity in a controlled animal population, such as D. melanogaster, and found that it increased average life span by 7%. In conclusion, moderate red wine consumption increases the expression of key longevity-related genes and improves metabolic health in humans and increases longevity in flies.