Trade and investment liberalization, food systems change and highly processed food consumption: a natural experiment contrasting the soft-drink markets of Peru and Bolivia

Trade liberalization and nutrition transition: Evidence from China

We examine the impact of trade liberalization on the nutrition transition between 1997 and 2011. Our findings demonstrate that the reduction in tariff rates has had a significant effect on the dietary patterns of both rural and urban residents in the country. With the decrease in tariffs, there has been a noticeable increase in the consumption of animal products (such as meat and aquatic products), vegetables, beans and nuts, as well as packaged and processed foods. Simultaneously, there has been a decrease in the demand for staple foods, fruits, and dairy products. Consequently, there has been an increase in the proportion of overall calories derived from fat and protein, while the proportion from staple foods has declined. As a result, trade liberalization has led to increased food expenditure, while reducing the cost of maintaining a healthy diet. Furthermore, trade liberalization has also contributed to a growing risk of obesity. Additionally, our study identifies rising incomes, specialization in agricultural production, changing food prices, and shifting food preferences as the primary mechanisms of the trade-diet relationship.

Nutrition policy reforms to address the double burden of malnutrition in Zambia: a prospective policy analysis

The evolution of nutrition patterns in Zambia has resulted in the coexistence of undernutrition and overnutrition in the same population, the double burden of malnutrition. While Zambia has strong policies addressing undernutrition and stunting, these do not adequately address food environment drivers of the double burden of malnutrition and the adolescent age group and hence the need for nutrition policy reforms. We conducted a theory-based qualitative prospective policy analysis involving in-depth interviews with nutrition policy stakeholders and policy document review to examine the feasibility of introducing nutrition policy options that address the double burden of malnutrition among adolescents to identify barriers and facilitators to such policy reforms. Using the multiple streams theory, we categorized the barriers and facilitators to prospective policy reforms into those related to the problem, policy solutions and politics stream. The use of a life-course approach in nutrition programming could facilitate policy reforms, as adolescence is one of the critical invention points in a person's lifecycle. Another key facilitator of policy reform was the availability of institutional infrastructure that could be leveraged to deliver adolescent-focused policies. However, the lack of evidence on the burden and long-term impacts of adolescent nutrition problems, the food industry's strong influence over governments' policy agenda setting and the lack of public awareness to demand better nutrition were perceived as critical barriers to policy reforms. In addition, the use of the individual responsibility framing for nutrition problems was dominant among stakeholders. As a result, stakeholders did not perceive legislative nutrition policy options that effectively address food environment drivers of the double burden of malnutrition to be feasible for the Zambian context. Policy entrepreneurs are required to broker policy reforms that will get legislative policy options on the government's agenda as they can help raise public support and re-engineer the framing of nutrition problems and their solutions in Zambia.

Reassessing the health impacts of trade and investment agreements: a systematic review of quantitative studies, 2016-20

To ensure a high level of health protection, governments must ensure that health and trade policy objectives are aligned. We conducted a systematic review of the health impacts of trade policies, including trade and investment agreements (TIAs), to provide a timely overview of this field. We systematically reviewed studies evaluating the health impacts of trade policies published between Jan 19, 2016, and July 10, 2020. Included studies were quantitative studies evaluating the impact of TIAs and trade policies on health determinants or outcomes. We evaluated methodological quality and performed a narrative synthesis. 21 of 28 067 articles identified via searches met our criteria. Methodologically strong studies found reduced child mortality, deteriorating worker health, rising supplies of sugar, ultra-processed food, tobacco, and alcohol supplies, and increased drug overdoses following trade reforms, compared with the time periods before trade reform. However, associations varied substantially across contexts and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings show that trade policies, including TIAs, have diverse effects on health and health determinants. These effects vary substantially across contexts and socioeconomic groups. Governments seeking to adopt healthy trade policies should consider these updated findings to ensure that opportunities for health improvement are leveraged and widely shared, while harms are avoided, especially among vulnerable groups.

Does international trade and investment liberalization facilitate corporate power in nutrition and alcohol policymaking? Applying an integrated political economy and power analysis approach to a case study of South Africa

Background

While there is a growing body of legally-focused analyses exploring the potential restrictions on public health policy space due to international trade rules, few studies have adopted a more politically-informed approach. This paper applies an integrated political economy and power analysis approach to understand how power relations and dynamics emerging as a result of the international trade and investment regime influence nutrition and alcohol regulatory development in a case study of South Africa.

Methods

We interviewed 36 key stakeholders involved in nutrition, alcohol and/or trade/investment policymaking in South Africa. Interview transcripts and notes were imported into NVivo and analyzed using thematic analysis. We used a conceptual framework for analyzing power in health policymaking to guide the analysis.

Results

Under the neoliberal paradigm that promotes trade liberalization and market extension, corporate power in nutrition and alcohol policymaking has been entrenched in South Africa via various mechanisms. These include via close relationships between economic policymakers and industry; institutional structures that codify industry involvement in all policy development but restrict health input in economic and trade policy decisions; limited stakeholder knowledge of the broader linkages between trade/investment and food/alcohol environments; high evidentiary requirements to prove public health policy effectiveness; both deliberate use of neoliberal frames/narratives as well as processes of socialization and internalization of neoliberal ideas/values shaping perceptions and policy preferences and ultimately generating policy norms prioritizing economic/trade over health objectives.

Conclusions

Exposing power in policymaking can expand our own ideational boundaries of what is required to promote transformative policy change. This work points to a number of potential strategies for challenging corporate power in nutrition and alcohol policymaking in the context of international trade and investment liberalization in South Africa.

International investment liberalization, transnational corporations and NCD prevention policy non-decisions: a realist review on the political economy of tobacco, alcohol and ultra-processed food

BACKGROUND

Public health concerns relating to international investment liberalization have centred on the potential for investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS)-related regulatory chill. However, the broader political and economic dimensions that shape the relationship between the international investment regime and non-communicable disease (NCD) policy development have been less well explored. This review aimed to synthesise the available evidence using a political economy approach, to understand why, how and under what conditions transnational corporations may use the international investment regime to promote NCD prevention policy non-decisions.

MAIN BODY

Methods: Mechanisms explaining why/how the international investment regime may be used by transnational health-harmful commodity corporations (THCCs) to encourage NCD prevention policy non-decisions, including regulatory chill, were iteratively developed. Six databases and relevant grey literature was searched, and evidence was extracted, synthesized and mapped against the various proposed explanatory mechanisms.

FINDINGS

Eighty-nine sources were included. THCCs may be incentivised to use the ISDS mechanism since the costs may be outweighed by the benefits of even just delaying regulatory adoption, particularly since the chilling effect tends to ripple out across jurisdictions. Drivers of regulatory chill may include ambiguity in treaty terms, inconsistency in arbitral rulings, potential arbitrator bias and the high cost of arbitration. Evidence indicates ISDS can delay policy adoption both within the country directly involved but also in other jurisdictions. Additionally, governments are adopting standard assessments of public health regulatory proposals for trade and ISDS risk. Various economic, political and industry-related factors likely interact to increase (or decrease) the ultimate risk of regulatory chill. Some evidence indicates that THCCs take advantage of governments' prioritization of foreign investment over NCD prevention objectives to influence the NCD prevention regulatory environment.

CONCLUSIONS

While ISDS-related regulatory chill is a real risk under certain conditions, international investment-related NCD prevention policy non-decisions driven by broader political economy dynamics may well be more widespread and impactful on NCD regulatory environments. There is therefore a clear need to expand the research agenda on investment liberalization and NCD policy beyond regulatory chill and engage with theories and approaches from international relations and political science, including political economy and power analyses.

The future of human malnutrition: rebalancing agency for better nutritional health

The major threat to human societies posed by undernutrition has been recognised for millennia. Despite substantial economic development and scientific innovation, however, progress in addressing this global challenge has been inadequate. Paradoxically, the last half-century also saw the rapid emergence of obesity, first in high-income countries but now also in low- and middle-income countries. Traditionally, these problems were approached separately, but there is increasing recognition that they have common drivers and need integrated responses. The new nutrition reality comprises a global ‘double burden’ of malnutrition, where the challenges of food insecurity, nutritional deficiencies and undernutrition coexist and interact with obesity, sedentary behaviour, unhealthy diets and environments that foster unhealthy behaviour. Beyond immediate efforts to prevent and treat malnutrition, what must change in order to reduce the future burden? Here, we present a conceptual framework that focuses on the deeper structural drivers of malnutrition embedded in society, and their interaction with biological mechanisms of appetite regulation and physiological homeostasis. Building on a review of malnutrition in past societies, our framework brings to the fore the power dynamics that characterise contemporary human food systems at many levels. We focus on the concept of agency, the ability of individuals or organisations to pursue their goals. In globalized food systems, the agency of individuals is directly confronted by the agency of several other types of actor, including corporations, governments and supranational institutions. The intakes of energy and nutrients by individuals are powerfully shaped by this ‘competition of agency’, and we therefore argue that the greatest opportunities to reduce malnutrition lie in rebalancing agency across the competing actors. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems and individuals illustrates our conceptual framework. Efforts to improve agency must both drive and respond to complementary efforts to promote and maintain equitable societies and planetary health.

Who influences nutrition policy space using international trade and investment agreements? A global stakeholder analysis

Background

Regulation of food environments is needed to address the global challenge of poor nutrition, yet policy inertia has been a problem. A common argument against regulation is potential conflict with binding commitments under international trade and investment agreements (TIAs). This study aimed to identify which actors and institutions, in different contexts, influence how TIAs are used to constrain policy space for improving food environments, and to describe their core beliefs, interests, resources and strategies, with the objective of informing strategic global action to preserve nutrition policy space.

Methods

We conducted a global stakeholder analysis applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework, based on existing academic literature and key informant interviews with international experts in trade and investment law and public health nutrition policy.

Results

We identified 12 types of actors who influence policy space in the food environment policy subsystem, relevant to TIAs. These actors hold various beliefs regarding the economic policy paradigm, the nature of obesity and dietary diseases as health problems, the role of government, and the role of industry in solving the health problem. We identified two primary competing coalitions: 1) a ‘public health nutrition’ coalition, which is overall supportive of and actively working to enact comprehensive food environment regulation; and 2) an ‘industry and economic growth’ focussed coalition, which places a higher priority on deregulation and is overall not supportive of comprehensive food environment regulation. The industry and economic growth coalition appears to be dominant, based on its relative power, resources and coordination. However, the public health nutrition coalition maintains influence through individual activism, collective lobbying and government pressure (e.g. by civil society), and expert knowledge generation.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that industry and economic growth-focussed coalitions are highly capable of leveraging networks, institutional structures and ideologies to their advantage, and are a formidable source of opposition acting to constrain nutrition policy space globally, including through TIAs. Opportunities for global public health nutrition coalitions to strengthen their influence in the support of nutrition policy space include strategic evidence generation and coalition-building through broader engagement and capacity-building.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12992-021-00764-7.

Intersectoral policy on industries that produce unhealthy commodities: governing in a new era of the global economy?

Tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy foods are key contributors to non-communicable diseases globally. Public health advocates have been proactive in recent years, developing systems to monitor and mitigate both health harms and influence by these industries. However, establishing and implementating strong government regulation of these unhealthy product-producing industries remains challenging. The relevant regulatory instruments lie not only with ministries of health but with agriculture, finance, industry and trade, largely driven by economic concerns. These policy sectors are often unreceptive to public health imperatives for restrictions on industry, including policies regarding labelling, marketing and excise taxes. Heavily influenced by traditional economic paradigms, they have been more receptive to industry calls for (unfettered) market competition, the rights of consumers to choose and the need for government to allow industry free rein; at most to establish voluntary standards of consumer protection, and certainly not to directly regulate industry products and practices. In recent years, the status quo of a narrow economic rationality that places economic growth above health, environment or other social goals is being re-evaluated by some governments and key international economic agencies, leading to windows of opportunity with the potential to transform how governments approach food, tobacco and alcohol as major, industry-driven risk factors. To take advantage of this window of opportunity, the public health community must work with different sectors of government to(1) reimagine policy mandates, drawing on whole-of-government imperatives for sustainable development, and (2) closely examine the institutional structures and governance processes, in order to create points of leverage for economic policies that also support improved health outcomes.

Ultraprocessed food and chronic noncommunicable diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 43 observational studies

This systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the association between consumption of ultraprocessed food and noncommunicable disease risk, morbidity and mortality. Forty-three observational studies were included (N = 891,723): 21 cross-sectional, 19 prospective, two case-control and one conducted both a prospective and cross-sectional analysis. Meta-analysis demonstrated consumption of ultraprocessed food was associated with increased risk of overweight (odds ratio: 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23-1.51; P < 0.001), obesity (odds ratio: 1.51; 95% CI, 1.34-1.70; P < 0.001), abdominal obesity (odds ratio: 1.49; 95% CI, 1.34-1.66; P < 0.0001), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.28; 95% CI, 1.11-1.48; P = 0.001), metabolic syndrome (odds ratio: 1.81; 95% CI, 1.12-2.93; P = 0.015) and depression in adults (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% CI, 1.16-1.28, P < 0.001) as well as wheezing (odds ratio: 1.40; 95% CI, 1.27-1.55; P < 0.001) but not asthma in adolescents (odds ratio: 1.20; 95% CI, 0.99-1.46; P = 0.065). In addition, consumption of ultraprocessed food was associated with cardiometabolic diseases, frailty, irritable bowel syndrome, functional dyspepsia and cancer (breast and overall) in adults while also being associated with metabolic syndrome in adolescents and dyslipidaemia in children. Although links between ultraprocessed food consumption and some intermediate risk factors in adults were also highlighted, further studies are required to more clearly define associations in children and adolescents. STUDY REGISTRATION: Prospero ID: CRD42020176752.

Environmental Interventions to Reduce the Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: Abridged Cochrane Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Regular consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) can increase the risk for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and dental caries. Interventions that alter the physical or social environment in which individuals make beverage choices have been proposed to reduce the consumption of SSB.

METHODS

We included randomised controlled, non-randomised controlled, and interrupted time series studies on environmental interventions, with or without behavioural co-interventions, implemented in real-world settings, lasting at least 12 weeks, and including at least 40 individuals. Studies on the taxation of SSB were not included, as these are subject of a separate Cochrane review. We used standard Cochrane methods for data extraction, risk of bias assessment, and evidence grading and synthesis. Searches were updated to January 24, 2018.

RESULTS

We identified 14,488 unique records and assessed 1,030 full texts for eligibility. We included 58 studies comprising a total of 1,180,096 participants and a median length of follow-up of 10 months. We found moderate-certainty evidence for consistent associations with decreases in SSB consumption or sales for the following interventions: traffic light labelling, price increases on SSB, in-store promotion of healthier beverages in supermarkets, government food benefit programs with incentives for purchasing fruits and vegetables and restrictions on SSB purchases, multi-component community campaigns focused on SSB, and interventions improving the availability of low-calorie beverages in the home environment. For the remaining interventions we found low- to very-low-certainty evidence for associations showing varying degrees of consistency.

CONCLUSIONS

With observed benefits outweighing observed harms, we suggest that environmental interventions to reduce the consumption of SSB be considered as part of a wider set of measures to improve population-level nutrition. Implementation should be accompanied by evaluations using appropriate methods. Future studies should examine population-level effects of interventions suitable for large-scale implementation, and interventions and settings not yet studied thoroughly.

Food Environment Typology: Advancing an Expanded Definition, Framework, and Methodological Approach for Improved Characterization of Wild, Cultivated, and Built Food Environments toward Sustainable Diets

The food environment is a critical place in the food system to implement interventions to support sustainable diets and address the global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change, because it contains the total scope of options within which consumers make decisions about which foods to acquire and consume. In this paper, we build on existing definitions of the food environment, and provide an expanded definition that includes the parameter of sustainability properties of foods and beverages, in order to integrate linkages between food environments and sustainable diets. We further provide a graphical representation of the food environment using a socio-ecological framework. Next, we provide a typology with descriptions of the different types of food environments that consumers have access to in low-, middle-, and high-income countries including wild, cultivated, and built food environments. We characterize the availability, affordability, convenience, promotion and quality (previously termed desirability), and sustainability properties of food and beverages for each food environment type. Lastly, we identify a methodological approach with potential objective and subjective tools and metrics for measuring the different properties of various types of food environments. The definition, framework, typology, and methodological toolbox presented here are intended to facilitate scholars and practitioners to identify entry points in the food environment for implementing and evaluating interventions that support sustainable diets for enhancing human and planetary health.

The relationship between joining a US free trade agreement and processed food sales, 2002-2016: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in sales of highly processed foods, including infant formulas, in countries joining free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US.

DESIGN

Annual country-level data for food and beverage sales come from Euromonitor International. Analyses are conducted in a comparative interrupted time-series (CITS) framework using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for key confounders: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, percent of the population living in urban areas and female labor force participation rate. Memberships in other FTAs and investment treaties are also explored as possible confounders.

SETTING

Changes are assessed between 2002 and 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Ten countries joining US FTAs are compared with eleven countries without US FTAs in force; countries are matched on national income level, world region and World Trade Organization membership.

RESULTS

After countries join a US FTA, sales are estimated to increase by: 0·89 (95 % CI 0·16, 1·6; P = 0·016) kg per capita per annum for ultra-processed products, 0·81 (95 % CI 0·47, 1·1; P < 0·001) kg per capita per annum for processed culinary ingredients and 0·17 (95 % CI 0·052, 0·29; P = 0·005) kg per capita under age 5 per annum for baby food. No significant change is estimated for minimally processed foods. In statistical models, large unexplained variations in country-specific trends suggest additional unmeasured country-level factors also impact sales trends following entry into US FTAs.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings strongly support the conclusion that joining US FTAs can contribute to detrimental changes in national dietary consumption that increase population risk of non-communicable diseases.

Government policy and agricultural production: a scoping review to inform research and policy on healthy agricultural commodities

Unhealthy foods and tobacco remain the leading causes of non-communicable disease (NCDs). These are key agricultural commodities for many countries, and NCD prevention policy needs to consider how to influence production towards healthier options. There has been little scholarship to bridge the agriculture with the public health literature that seeks to address the supply of healthy commodities. This scoping review synthesizes the literature on government agricultural policy and production in order to 1) present a typology of policies used to influence agricultural production, 2) to provide a preliminary overview of the ways that impact is assessed in this literature, and 3) to bring this literature into conversation with the literature on food and tobacco supply.This review analyzes the literature on government agricultural policy and production. Articles written in English and published between January 1997 and April 2018 (20-year range) were included. Only quantitative evaluations were included. Studies that collected qualitative data to supplement the quantitative analysis were also included. One hundred and three articles were included for data extraction. The following information was extracted: article details (e.g., author, title, journal), policy details (e.g., policy tools, goals, context), methods used to evaluate the policy (e.g., outcomes evaluated, sample size, limitations), and study findings. Fifty four studies examined the impact of policy on agricultural production. The remaining articles assessed land allocation (n = 25) (e.g., crop diversification, acreage expansion), efficiency (n = 23), rates of employment including on- and off-farm employment (n = 18), and farm income (n = 17) among others. Input supports, output supports and technical support had an impact on production, income and other outcomes. Although there were important exceptions, largely attributed to farm level allocation of labour or resources. Financial supports were most commonly evaluated including cash subsidies, credit, and tax benefits. This type of support resulted in an equal number of studies reporting increased production as those with no effects.This review provides initial extrapolative insights from the general literature on the impact of government policies on agricultural production. This review can inform dialogue between the health and agricultural sector and evaluative research on policy for alternatives to tobacco production and unhealthy food supply.

How Neoliberalism Is Shaping the Supply of Unhealthy Commodities and What This Means for NCD Prevention

Alcohol, tobacco, and unhealthy foods contribute greatly to the global burden of non-communicable disease (NCD). Member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) have recognized the critical need to address these three key risk factors through global action plans and policy recommendations. The 2013-2020 WHO action plan identifies the need to engage economic, agricultural and other relevant sectors to establish comprehensive and coherent policy. To date one of the biggest barriers to action is not so much identifying affective policies, but rather how a comprehensive policy approach to NCD prevention can be established across sectors. Much of the research on policy incoherence across sectors has focused on exposing the strategies used by commercial interests to shape public policy in their favor. Although the influence of commercial interests on government decisions remains an important issue for policy coherence, we argue, that the dominant neoliberal policy paradigm continues to enable the ability of these interests to influence public policy. In this paper, we examine how this dominant paradigm and the way it has been enshrined in institutional mechanisms has given rise to existing systems of governance of product environments, and how these systems create structural barriers to the introduction of meaningful policy action to prevent NCDs by fostering healthy product environments. Work to establish policy coherence across sectors, particularly to ensure a healthy product environment, will require systematic engagement with the assumptions that continue to structure institutions that perpetuate unhealthy product environments.

An exposé of the realpolitik of trade negotiations: implications for population nutrition

OBJECTIVE

To explore the formal and informal ways in which different actors involved in shaping trade agreements pursue their interests and understand the interactions with nutrition, in order to improve coherence between trade and nutrition policy goals.

DESIGN

The paper draws on empirical evidence from Australian key informant interviews that explore the underlying political dimensions of trade agreements that act as barriers or facilitators to getting nutrition objectives on trade agendas.

SETTING

Countries experiencing greater availability and access to diets full of energy-dense and nutrient-poor foods through increased imports, greater foreign direct investment and increasing constraints on national health policy space as a result of trade agreements.

PARTICIPANTS

Interviews took place with Australian government officials, industry, public-interest non-government organizations and academics.

RESULTS

The analysis reveals the formal and informal mechanisms and structures that different policy actors use both inside and outside trade negotiations to pursue their interests. The analysis also identifies the discourses used by the different actors, as they attempt to influence trade agreements in ways that support or undermine nutrition-related goals.

CONCLUSIONS

Moving forward requires policy makers, researchers and health advocates to use various strategies including: reframing the role of trade agreements to include health outcomes; reforming the process to allow greater access and voice to health arguments and stakeholders; establishing cross-government partners through accountable committees; and building circles of consensus and coalitions of sympathetic public-interest actors.

International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand

United Nations (UN) member states have, since 2011, worked to address the emerging global NCD crisis, but progress has, so far, been insufficient. Food trade policy is recognised to have the potential to impact certain major diet-related health and environmental outcomes. We study the potential for using import tariff protection as a health and environmental policy instrument. Specifically, we apply a rigorous and consistent Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) simulation model framework to study fiscal food policy import tariffs and dietary change in Thailand over the future 20 year period 2016-2035. We find that the existing Thai tariff structure, by lowering imports, lowers agricultural Land Use Change (LUC)-related GHG emissions and protects against cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). This confirms previous evidence that food trade, measured by import shares of food expenditures and caloric intakes, is correlated with unhealthy eating and adverse health outcomes among importing country populations. A continued drive towards tariff liberalization and economic efficiency in Thailand may therefore come at the expense of reduced health and environmental sustainability of food consumption and production systems. Due to large efficiency losses, the existing tariff structure is, however, not cost-effective as an environmental or health policy instrument. However, additional simulations confirm that stylized 30% food sector import tariffs generally improve nutritional, clinical health, demographic, and environmental indicators across the board. We also find that diet-related health improvements can go hand-in-hand with increased Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) intakes. Despite limited cost-effectiveness, policy makers from Thailand and abroad, including WHO, would therefore be well advised to consider targeted fiscal food policy tariffs as a potential intervention to maintain combined health and environmental sustainability, and to reconsider the specification of WHO dietary guidelines with their focus on SFA intake (rather than composition of fatty acid intake) targets.

•

Fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health model for Thailand.

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Methodologically rigorous quantitative approach to analysing trade and health.

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Existing Thai tariff structure protects against cholesterol-related CVD illness.

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Food import tariffs generally improve nutritional, health and demographic outcomes.

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Protective import tariffs generally lead to economic-environmental trade-offs.

Environmental interventions to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and their effects on health

BACKGROUND

Frequent consumption of excess amounts of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is a risk factor for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dental caries. Environmental interventions, i.e. interventions that alter the physical or social environment in which individuals make beverage choices, have been advocated as a means to reduce the consumption of SSB.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of environmental interventions (excluding taxation) on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and sugar-sweetened milk, diet-related anthropometric measures and health outcomes, and on any reported unintended consequences or adverse outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched 11 general, specialist and regional databases from inception to 24 January 2018. We also searched trial registers, reference lists and citations, scanned websites of relevant organisations, and contacted study authors.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies on interventions implemented at an environmental level, reporting effects on direct or indirect measures of SSB intake, diet-related anthropometric measures and health outcomes, or any reported adverse outcome. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised controlled trials (NRCTs), controlled before-after (CBA) and interrupted-time-series (ITS) studies, implemented in real-world settings with a combined length of intervention and follow-up of at least 12 weeks and at least 20 individuals in each of the intervention and control groups. We excluded studies in which participants were administered SSB as part of clinical trials, and multicomponent interventions which did not report SSB-specific outcome data. We excluded studies on the taxation of SSB, as these are the subject of a separate Cochrane Review.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risks of bias of included studies. We classified interventions according to the NOURISHING framework, and synthesised results narratively and conducted meta-analyses for two outcomes relating to two intervention types. We assessed our confidence in the certainty of effect estimates with the GRADE framework as very low, low, moderate or high, and presented 'Summary of findings' tables.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 14,488 unique records, and assessed 1030 in full text for eligibility. We found 58 studies meeting our inclusion criteria, including 22 RCTs, 3 NRCTs, 14 CBA studies, and 19 ITS studies, with a total of 1,180,096 participants. The median length of follow-up was 10 months. The studies included children, teenagers and adults, and were implemented in a variety of settings, including schools, retailing and food service establishments. We judged most studies to be at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain, and most studies used non-randomised designs. The studies examine a broad range of interventions, and we present results for these separately.Labelling interventions (8 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that traffic-light labelling is associated with decreasing sales of SSBs, and low-certainty evidence that nutritional rating score labelling is associated with decreasing sales of SSBs. For menu-board calorie labelling reported effects on SSB sales varied.Nutrition standards in public institutions (16 studies): We found low-certainty evidence that reduced availability of SSBs in schools is associated with decreased SSB consumption. We found very low-certainty evidence that improved availability of drinking water in schools and school fruit programmes are associated with decreased SSB consumption. Reported associations between improved availability of drinking water in schools and student body weight varied.Economic tools (7 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that price increases on SSBs are associated with decreasing SSB sales. For price discounts on low-calorie beverages reported effects on SSB sales varied.Whole food supply interventions (3 studies): Reported associations between voluntary industry initiatives to improve the whole food supply and SSB sales varied.Retail and food service interventions (7 studies): We found low-certainty evidence that healthier default beverages in children's menus in chain restaurants are associated with decreasing SSB sales, and moderate-certainty evidence that in-store promotion of healthier beverages in supermarkets is associated with decreasing SSB sales. We found very low-certainty evidence that urban planning restrictions on new fast-food restaurants and restrictions on the number of stores selling SSBs in remote communities are associated with decreasing SSB sales. Reported associations between promotion of healthier beverages in vending machines and SSB intake or sales varied.Intersectoral approaches (8 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that government food benefit programmes with restrictions on purchasing SSBs are associated with decreased SSB intake. For unrestricted food benefit programmes reported effects varied. We found moderate-certainty evidence that multicomponent community campaigns focused on SSBs are associated with decreasing SSB sales. Reported associations between trade and investment liberalisation and SSB sales varied.Home-based interventions (7 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that improved availability of low-calorie beverages in the home environment is associated with decreased SSB intake, and high-certainty evidence that it is associated with decreased body weight among adolescents with overweight or obesity and a high baseline consumption of SSBs.Adverse outcomes reported by studies, which may occur in some circumstances, included negative effects on revenue, compensatory SSB consumption outside school when the availability of SSBs in schools is reduced, reduced milk intake, stakeholder discontent, and increased total energy content of grocery purchases with price discounts on low-calorie beverages, among others. The certainty of evidence on adverse outcomes was low to very low for most outcomes.We analysed interventions targeting sugar-sweetened milk separately, and found low- to moderate-certainty evidence that emoticon labelling and small prizes for the selection of healthier beverages in elementary school cafeterias are associated with decreased consumption of sugar-sweetened milk. We found low-certainty evidence that improved placement of plain milk in school cafeterias is not associated with decreasing sugar-sweetened milk consumption.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence included in this review indicates that effective, scalable interventions addressing SSB consumption at a population level exist. Implementation should be accompanied by high-quality evaluations using appropriate study designs, with a particular focus on the long-term effects of approaches suitable for large-scale implementation.

Sugar-sweetened beverage affordability and the prevalence of overweight and obesity in a cross section of countries

Background

A key component of ‘obesogenic environments’ is the ready availability of convenient, calorie-dense foods, in the form of hyper-palatable and relatively inexpensive ultra-processed products. Compelling evidence indicates that the regular consumption of soft drinks, specifically carbonated and non-carbonated sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has a significant impact on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, to implement country-level effective prevention programmes we need to supplement this evidence with quantitative knowledge of the relationships between overweight/obesity and the main determinants of SSB consumption, notably SSB prices and consumers’ disposable income.

Method

Affordability considers the simultaneous effects of both price and disposable income on the buying decision. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of SSB affordability on the consumers’ purchasing behaviour and weight-related health outcomes. Our study was divided into three parts. First, we computed SSB consumption and affordability for approximately 150 countries worldwide. Second, we estimated a demand function for SSBs to assess the impact of affordability on consumption at the country level. Third, we used a multivariate regression model and country data on the prevalence of overweight and obesity to test the role of SSB affordability in the current obesity epidemic.

Results

The analysis reveals that SSB affordability: 1) showed both a large variability across countries and a clear tendency to increase substantially with the level of economic development; 2) played a key role in determining cross-country differences in the amount of soft drink consumed per capita; and 3) was significantly associated with the prevalence rates of both overweight and obesity. Specifically, we show that a 10 % increase in SSB affordability was associated, on average, with approximately 0.4 more overweight/obese adults per 100 inhabitants.

Conclusions

By controlling for the main possible confounding factors, our results clearly indicate that affordability is a major driver of purchasing behaviours and is significantly associated with the prevalence rates of both overweight and obesity. We thus suggest a fiscal approach to curb SSB consumption based on the effectiveness of ‘soda taxes’ to affect the long-term dynamic of SSB affordability.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-019-0474-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Economic globalization, nutrition and health: a review of quantitative evidence

Background

Unhealthy dietary patterns have in recent decades contributed to an endemic-level burden from non-communicable disease (NCDs) in high-income countries. In low- and middle-income countries rapid changes in diets are also increasingly linked to malnutrition in all its forms as persistent undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies continue to coexist with a rising prevalence of obesity and associated NCDs. Economic globalization and trade liberalization have been identified as potentially important factors driving these trends, but the mechanisms, pathways and actual impact are subject to continued debate.

Methods

We use a ‘rigorous review’ to synthesize evidence from empirical quantitative studies analysing the links between economic globalization processes and nutritional outcomes, with a focus on impact as well as improving the understanding of the main underlying mechanisms and their interactions.

Findings

While the literature remains mixed regarding the impacts of overall globalization, trade liberalization or economic globalization on nutritional outcomes, it is possible to identify different patterns of association and impact across specific sub-components of globalization processes. Although results depend on the context and methods of analysis, foreign direct investment (FDI) appears to be more clearly associated with increases in overnutrition and NCD prevalence than to changes in undernutrition. Existing evidence does not clearly show associations between trade liberalization and NCD prevalence, but there is some evidence of a broad association with improved dietary quality and reductions in undernutrition. Socio-cultural aspects of globalization appear to play an important yet under-studied role, with potential associations with increased prevalence of overweight and obesity. The limited evidence available also suggests that the association between trade liberalization or globalization and nutritional outcomes might differ substantially across population sub-groups.

Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers do not necessarily face a trade-off when considering the implications of trade or economic liberalization for malnutrition in all its forms. On the contrary, a combination of nutrition-sensitive trade policy and adequate regulation of FDI could help reduce all forms of malnutrition. In the context of trade negotiations and agreements it is fundamental, therefore, to protect the policy space for governments to adopt nutrition-sensitive interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-019-0456-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Glycyrrhetic acid monoglucuronide: sweetness concentration-response and molecular mechanism as a naturally high-potency sweetener

Glycyrrhetic acid monoglucuronide (GAM) is obtained from the natural sweetener glycyrrhizin through enzymolysis. Its sweetness concentration-response (C-R) behavior in room-temperature in water was determined using two-alternative forced choice discrimination tests. The C-R equation of resultant hyperbolic curve relating sucrose equivalent (SE, %) to GAM concentration ([GAM], mg/L) was SE = 19.6 × [GAM]/(194.8 + [GAM]). From the C-R function, Pw (2) of GAM, relative to a 2% (w/v) sucrose reference, is more than 900, which has much higher potency than its precursor glycyrrhizin. Molecular modeling showed that GAM is finely bound into protein 1EWK through conventional hydrogen bonds, π-Alkyl interactions and Van der Waals bonds, which exhibited better protein inclusion than Glycyrrhizin. Thus, GAM could be developed as a new zero-calorie, naturally high-potency sweetener.

World Trade Organization membership and changes in noncommunicable disease risk factors: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis, 1980-2013

Objective

To investigate the relationship between joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the availability of several commodities with both harmful and protective effects for the development of noncommunicable diseases.

Methods

We used a natural experiment design to compare trends in the domestic supply of tobacco, alcohol and seven food groups, between 1980 and 2013, in 21 countries or territories joining WTO after 1995 and 26 non-member countries, using propensity score weights. We applied a comparative interrupted time-series framework, by using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for gross domestic product per capita, the percentages of urban population and female labour force participation. In the tobacco model, we controlled for Member States that had ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and in the alcohol model, the percentage of the population identifying themselves as Muslim.

Findings

Following accession to WTO, member states experienced immediate increases in the domestic supply of fruits and vegetables of 55 g per person per day on average, compared to non-member countries. The analysis showed gradual increases in the geometric mean of the supply of tobacco and alcohol of 6.2% and 3.6% per year, respectively. We did not detect any significant changes in the availability of red meats and animal fats; seafood; nuts, seeds and legumes; starches; or edible oils; and results for sugars were inconsistent across model variations.

Conclusion

The results suggest that WTO membership may lead to increases in both harmful and protective factors for noncommunicable disease, but further exploration of country-specific variation is warranted.

Trade, investment and public health: compiling the evidence, assembling the arguments

Trade has long been an axiomatic characteristic of globalization, although international rules governing trade are of more recent vintage. Notably in the post-World War II period, an ever increasing number of countries began negotiating treaties to reduce, first, tariff barriers and, later, non-tariff barriers (government measures of any sort) that could impede the cross-border flow of goods. The rationale, in part, was that countries that became more entwined economically would be less likely to go to war with each other. It wouldn't be in their own economic interests to do so, or at least that of the firms based within their borders but engaged in transnational trade and dependent upon global supply chains. At first primarily an undertaking of developed (high-income) countries, developing (low and middle-income countries) slowly enjoined in what, in 1995, became the World Trade Organization. The WTO locked in scheduled declines in tariffs (border taxes), albeit with lesser obligations on developing country members (a problematic nomenclature given the vast geographic, economic, and development differences between such countries, but which nonetheless persists within the WTO). Importantly, a slew of new agreements that coincided with the establishment of the WTO also sought to liberalize trade in services (not just goods) (The General Agreement on Trade in Services), create new rules for agricultural trade (Agreement on Agriculture), expand intellectual property rights protections (The Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights), limit trade-distorting government subsidies (Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures), and ensure that government food, health, or environmental regulations would not pose an unnecessary barrier to trade (the Technical Barriers to Trade and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures Agreements). Outside of the WTO system, bilateral or regional investment treaties granting special rights to foreign investors to sue governments for actions perceived to affect the value of their investment (such as direct expropriation or passage of new laws and regulations considered 'tantamount to expropriation') similarly exploded in number, dispute frequency, and the size of monetary claims. The breadth and depth of these post-1995 Agreements meant that few areas of general public health concern are potentially untouched.

Analyzing the impacts of global trade and investment on non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a critical review of methodological approaches used in quantitative analyses

Background

A key mechanism through which globalization has impacted health is the liberalization of trade and investment, yet relatively few studies to date have used quantitative methods to investigate the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors. Recent reviews of this literature have found heterogeneity in results and a range of quality across studies, which may be in part attributable to a lack of conceptual clarity and methodological inconsistencies.

Methods

This study is a critical review of methodological approaches used in the quantitative literature on global trade and investment and diet, tobacco, alcohol, and related health outcomes, with the objective of developing recommendations and providing resources to guide future robust, policy relevant research. A review of reviews, expert review, and reference tracing were employed to identify relevant studies, which were evaluated using a novel quality assessment tool designed for this research.

Results

Eight review articles and 34 quantitative studies were identified for inclusion. Important ways to improve this literature were identified and discussed: clearly defining exposures of interest and not conflating trade and investment; exploring mechanisms of broader relationships; increasing the use of individual-level data; ensuring consensus and consistency in key confounding variables; utilizing more sector-specific versus economy-wide trade and investment indicators; testing and adequately adjusting for autocorrelation and endogeneity when using longitudinal data; and presenting results from alternative statistical models and sensitivity analyses. To guide the development of future analyses, recommendations for international data sources for selected trade and investment indicators, as well as key gaps in the literature, are presented.

Conclusion

More methodologically rigorous and consistent approaches in future quantitative studies on the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors can help to resolve inconsistencies of existing research and generate useful information to guide policy decisions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-018-0371-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Impact of U.S. Free Trade Agreements on Calorie Availability and Obesity: A Natural Experiment in Canada

INTRODUCTION

Globalization via free trade and investment agreements is often implicated in the obesity pandemic. Concerns center on how free trade and investment agreements increase population exposure to unhealthy, high-calorie diets, but existing studies preclude causal conclusions. Few studies of free trade and investment agreements and diets isolated their impact from confounding changes, and none examined any effect on caloric intake, despite its critical role in the etiology of obesity. This study addresses these limitations by analyzing a unique natural experiment arising from the exceptional circumstances surrounding the implementation of the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

METHODS

Data from the UN (2017) were analyzed using fixed-effects regression models and the synthetic control method to estimate the impact of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on calorie availability in Canada, 1978-2006, and coinciding increases in U.S. exports and investment in Canada's food and beverage sector. The impact of changes to calorie availability on body weights was then modeled.

RESULTS

Calorie availability increased by ≅170 kilocalories per capita per day in Canada after the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. There was a coinciding rise in U.S. trade and investment in the Canadian food and beverage sector. This rise in calorie availability is estimated to account for an average weight gain of between 1.8 kg and 12.2 kg in the Canadian population, depending on sex and physical activity levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement was associated with a substantial rise in calorie availability in Canada. U.S. free trade and investment agreements can contribute to rising obesity and related diseases by pushing up caloric intake.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Should We "Fear the Fear"? Comment on "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?"

RLabonté et al entitle their paper in this issue of the International Journal of Health Policy and Management "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?" Tantalisingly, they do not directly answer the question they pose, and in this commentary, we suggest that it is the wrong question; we should not 'fear' the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) at all, rather we should ask how we are to respond. The public health community is right to be concerned with the potential implications of trade and investment agreements (TIAs) for health, particularly with shifts from multilateral to regional/bilateral agreements including provisions with greater risk to public health. But it is critical to understand also the potential health benefits, and especially the mitigating policy and governance mechanisms to respond to adverse TIA implications. Given entrenched and divergent sectoral worldviews and perspectives between trade and health communities on these issues, achieving the requisite understanding will also likely require characterisation of these perspectives and identification of areas of common understanding and agreed solutions.

Assessing the Health Impact of Trade: A Call for an Expanded Research Agenda Comment on "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?"

Labonté et al provide an insightful analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and its impact on a selection of important health determinants. Their work confirms concerns raised by previous analyses of leaked drafts and offers governments serious and timely reasons to carefully consider provisions of the agreement prior to moving forward with ratification. It also contributes more generally to a growing literature focused on identifying the health impacts of trade. This commentary uses the authors' analysis as a starting point to reflect on two interrelated issues relevant both for taking seriously one of the article's main recommendations and future work in the area of trade and health.

Advancing Public Health on the Changing Global Trade and Investment Agenda Comment on "The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Is It Everything We Feared for Health?"

Concerns regarding the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have raised awareness about the negative public health impacts of trade and investment agreements. In the past decade, we have learned much about the implications of trade agreements for public health: reduced equity in access to health services; increased flows of unhealthy commodities; limits on access to medicines; and constrained policy space for health. Getting health on the trade agenda continues to prove challenging, despite some progress in moving towards policy coherence. Recent changes in trade and investment agendas highlight an opportunity for public health researchers and practitioners to engage in highly politicized debates about how future economic policy can protect and support equitable public health outcomes. To fulfil this opportunity, public health attention now needs to turn to strengthening policy coherence between trade and health, and identifying how solutions can be implemented. Key strategies include research agendas that address politics and power, and capacity building for both trade and health officials.

Is trade liberalisation a vector for the spread of sugar-sweetened beverages? A cross-national longitudinal analysis of 44 low- and middle-income countries

Does trade and investment liberalisation increase the growth in sales of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs)? Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we test this hypothesis using a unique data source on SSB-specific trade flows. We test whether lower tariffs effectively increase imports of SSBs, and whether a higher level of imports increase sales of SSBs. Cross-national fixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between SSBs sales and trade liberalisation. SSBs per capita sales data were taken from EuroMonitor, covering 44 low- and middle-income countries from 2001 to 2014, SSBs import data were from TradeMap, Foreign Direct Investment data were from EuroMonitor, and data on applied tariffs on SSB from the World Trade Organisation tariffs database, all 2015 editions. The results show that higher tariffs on SSBs significantly decreased per capita SSB imports. Each one percent increase in tariffs was associated with a 2.9% (95% CI: 0.9%–5%) decrease in imports of SSBs. In turn, increased imports of SSBs were significantly associated with greater sales of SSBs per capita, with each 10 percent increase in imports (in US$) associated with a rise in sales of 0.36 L per person (95% CI: 0.08–0.68). Between 2001 and 2014, this amounted to 9.1 L greater sales per capita, about 40% of the overall rise seen in this period in LMICs. We observed that tariffs were inversely but not significantly associated with sales of SSBs. In conclusion, lower tariffs substantially increased imports of SSBs in LMICs, which translated into greater sales. These findings suggest that trade policies which lower tariff barriers to SSB imports can be expected to lead to increased imports and then increased sales of SSBs in LMICs, with adverse consequences for obesity and the diseases that result from it.

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Higher tariffs on SSBs significantly decreased per capita SSBs imports in LMICs.

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Increased imports of SSBs were significantly associated with greater sales of SSBs.

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Policies that liberalise trade of SSBs can be expected to lead to the spread SSBs.

The role of trade and investment liberalization in the sugar-sweetened carbonated beverages market: a natural experiment contrasting Vietnam and the Philippines

Background

Trade and investment liberalization may facilitate the spread of sugar-sweetened carbonated beverages (SSCBs), products associated with increased risk factors for obesity, type II diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases (Circulation 121:1356–1364, 2010). Apart from a limited set of comparative cross-national studies, the majority of analyses linking liberalization and the food environment have drawn on case studies and descriptive accounts. The current failure of many countries to reverse the obesity epidemic calls for investigation into both individual and systemic factors, including trade and investment policies.

Methods

Using a natural experimental design we tested whether Vietnam’s removal of restrictions on foreign direct investment (FDI) subsequent to its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2007 increased sales of SSCBs compared with a matched country, the Philippines, which acceded in 1995. Difference-in-difference (DID) models were used to test pre/post differences in total SSCB sales and foreign company penetration covering the years 1999–2013.

Results

Following Vietnam’s removal of restrictions on FDI, the growth rate of SSCB sales increased to 12.1 % per capita per year from a prior growth rate of 3.3 %. SSCB sales per capita rose significantly faster pre- and post-intervention in Vietnam compared with the control country the Philippines (DID: 4.6 L per annum, 95 % CI: 3.8 to 5.4 L, p < 0.008). Vietnam’s increase in SSCBs was primarily attributable to products manufactured by foreign companies, whose annual sales growth rates rose from 6.7 to 23.1 %, again unmatched within the Philippines over this period (DID: 12.3 %, 95 % CI: 8.6 to 16.0 %, p < 0.049).

Conclusions

Growth of SSCB sales in Vietnam, led by foreign-owned companies, significantly accelerated after trade and investment liberalization.