The construction and selection of predictive scales, with special reference to parasuicide

Risk of suicide after attempted suicide in the population of Slovenia from 1970 to 1996

Objective:

All suicide attempts cannot predict suicide, therefore we examined those characteristics of suicide attempt which could most accurately predict completed suicide.

Subject and methods:

Subjects were all individuals registered as committed suicides (N = 16,522) or attempted suicides (N = 15,057) in the register of suicides of the Republic of Slovenia between 1970 and 1996. Log linear analysis of a frequency table was used to uncover relationship between categorical variables.

Results:

The model we found fit between variables: mode, number of repetitions and type, then between number of repetitions, type and gender, and between mode, type and gender.

Discussion:

The risk of suicide in those who previously attempted suicide is approximately 773 times higher than the risk of suicide without a previous suicide attempt. Those who attempt suicide by hanging (hanging being in Slovenia the most frequent mode of completed suicide) are at even greater risk to commit suicide.

Conclusion:

Our data suggests that clinicians should heighten their awareness that any suicide attempt can in some 20% predict suicide. Someone who has attempted suicide by hanging is at the highest risk of suicide.

Suicide prediction models: a critical review of recent research with recommendations for the way forward

Suicide is a leading cause of death. A substantial proportion of the people who die by suicide come into contact with the health care system in the year before their death. This observation has resulted in the development of numerous suicide prediction tools to help target patients for preventive interventions. However, low sensitivity and low positive predictive value have led critics to argue that these tools have no clinical value. We review these tools and critiques here. We conclude that existing tools are suboptimal and that improvements, if they can be made, will require developers to work with more comprehensive predictor sets, staged screening designs, and advanced statistical analysis methods. We also conclude that although existing suicide prediction tools currently have little clinical value, and in some cases might do more harm than good, an even-handed assessment of the potential value of refined tools of this sort cannot currently be made because such an assessment would depend on evidence that currently does not exist about the effectiveness of preventive interventions. We argue that the only way to resolve this uncertainty is to link future efforts to develop or evaluate suicide prediction tools with concrete questions about specific clinical decisions aimed at reducing suicides and to evaluate the clinical value of these tools in terms of net benefit rather than sensitivity or positive predictive value. We also argue for a focus on the development of individualized treatment rules to help select the right suicide-focused treatments for the right patients at the right times. Challenges will exist in doing this because of the rarity of suicide even among patients considered high-risk, but we offer practical suggestions for how these challenges can be addressed.

Attempting to disentangle the relationship between impulsivity and longitudinal self-harm: Epidemiological analysis of UK household survey data

BACKGROUND

Impulsivity may be an important risk factor in terms of future self-harm. However, the extent of this, whether it may relate to self-harm that is new in onset and/or repetition of self-harm, and the detail of any interaction with mood instability (MI) and childhood sexual abuse (CSA) requires detailed examination.

AIMS

We used the 2000 Adult Psychiatry Morbidity Survey and an 18-month follow-up data to test hypotheses relating to the role of impulsivity, CSA and MI in the inception and persistence of self-harm.

METHODS

We assessed associations of impulsivity with (1) suicidal self-harm (SSH) and (2) non-SSH (NSSH) at baseline and follow-up, controlling for confounders including MI. Finally, we tested whether impulsivity mediated the relationship between CSA and self-harm.

RESULTS

A total of 8,580 respondents were assessed at baseline and 2,406 at follow-up as planned. Impulsivity significantly predicted emergence of new NSSH at 18-month follow-up even after adjustment for MI and other confounders. Impulsivity did not significantly predict repetition of NSSH, or repetition or new inception of SSH, even before inclusion of MI in the model. However, the absolute numbers involved were small. Cross-sectionally, impulsivity was a stronger mediator of the link between CSA and SSH (13.1%) than that between CSA and NSSH (4.8%).

CONCLUSION

Impulsivity may increase the risk of future development of NSSH independently of MI, which is clinically important for risk assessment. The involvement of impulsivity in the repetition of self-harm generally appears less certain. However, impulsivity may have a role in SSH in the context of previous CSA.

Against a high-risk strategy in the prevention of suicide

Standard approaches to the prevention of suicide have concentrated on the rigorous assessment and management of suicidal risk. Using deliberate self-harm as a specific example, we discuss the relative merits of this ‘high-risk’ strategy and compare it with a population-based preventive strategy. We conclude that a combined approach offers the best hope for reducing the rate of suicide, although it may not fit easily with medical models of care.

Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales

BackgroundPrediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV).AimsTo identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal behaviours.MethodA systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours.ResultsFor all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI 19.5-35.6%) for psychiatric in-patients.ConclusionsNo 'high-risk' classification was clinically useful. Prevalence imposes a ceiling on PPV. Treatment should reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors and offer effective interventions for selected subpopulations and unselected clinical populations.

Which are the most useful scales for predicting repeat self-harm? A systematic review evaluating risk scales using measures of diagnostic accuracy

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this review were to calculate the diagnostic accuracy statistics of risk scales following self-harm and consider which might be the most useful scales in clinical practice.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

We based our search terms on those used in the systematic reviews carried out for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence self-harm guidelines (2012) and evidence update (2013), and updated the searches through to February 2015 (CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsychINFO). Methodological quality was assessed and three reviewers extracted data independently. We limited our analysis to cohort studies in adults using the outcome of repeat self-harm or attempted suicide. We calculated diagnostic accuracy statistics including measures of global accuracy. Statistical pooling was not possible due to heterogeneity.

RESULTS

The eight papers included in the final analysis varied widely according to methodological quality and the content of scales employed. Overall, sensitivity of scales ranged from 6% (95% CI 5% to 6%) to 97% (CI 95% 94% to 98%). The positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 5% (95% CI 3% to 9%) to 84% (95% CI 80% to 87%). The diagnostic OR ranged from 1.01 (95% CI 0.434 to 2.5) to 16.3 (95%CI 12.5 to 21.4). Scales with high sensitivity tended to have low PPVs.

CONCLUSIONS

It is difficult to be certain which, if any, are the most useful scales for self-harm risk assessment. No scales perform sufficiently well so as to be recommended for routine clinical use. Further robust prospective studies are warranted to evaluate risk scales following an episode of self-harm. Diagnostic accuracy statistics should be considered in relation to the specific service needs, and scales should only be used as an adjunct to assessment.

Can We Use Neurocognition to Predict Repetition of Self-Harm, and Why Might This Be Clinically Useful? A Perspective

Over 800,000 people die by suicide each year globally, with non-fatal self-harm 20 times more common. With each episode of self-harm, the risks of future self-harm and suicide increase, as well as personal and healthcare costs. Therefore, early delineation of those at high risk of future self-harm is important. Historically, research has focused on clinical and demographic factors, but risk assessments based on these have low sensitivity to predict repetition. Various neurocognitive factors have been associated with self-harming behavior, but it is less certain if we can use these factors clinically (i) as risk markers to predict future self-harm and (ii) to become therapeutic targets for interventions. Recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses of behavioral tasks and fMRI studies point to an emerging hypothesis for neurocognition in self-harm: an underactive pre-frontal cortex is unable to respond appropriately to non-emotional stimuli, or inhibit a hyperactive emotionally-/threat-driven limbic system. However, there is almost no imaging data examining repetition of self-harm. Extrapolating from the non-repetition data, there may be several potential neurocognitive targets for interventions to prevent repeat self-harm: cognitive training; pharmacological regimes to promote non-emotional neurocognition; or other techniques, such as repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation. Hence, there is an urgent need for imaging studies examining repetition and to test specific hypotheses. Until we investigate the functional neurocognitive basis underlying repetition of self-harm in a systematic manner using second-generational imaging techniques, we will be unable to inform third-generational imaging and potential future clinical applications.

A cross-sectional study of major repeaters: a distinct phenotype of suicidal behavior

OBJECTIVE

The characterization of major repeaters (individuals with ≥ 5 lifetime suicide attempts) is a neglected area of research. Our aim was to establish whether or not major repeaters are a distinctive suicidal phenotype, taking into account a wide range of potential competing risks including sociodemographic characteristics, personal and familial history, psychiatric diagnoses, and personality traits.

METHOD

This cross-sectional study included 372 suicide attempters admitted to a specialized unit for suicide attempters in Montpellier University Hospital, Montpellier, France, between October 12, 2000, and June 10, 2010. Logistic regression models controlling for potential confounders were used.

RESULTS

When compared with subjects who attempted suicide < 5 times, major repeaters were more likely to be female (odds ratio [OR] = 5.54; 95% CI, 1.41-21.81), to have a lower educational level (OR = 5.1; 95% CI, 1.55-17.2), to have lifetime diagnoses of anorexia nervosa (OR = 3.45; 95% CI, 1.10-10.84) and substance dependence (OR = 5.00; 95% CI, 1.37-18.27), and to have lower levels of anger expressed outward (OR = 0.17; 95% CI, 0.06-0.47) and higher levels of trait anger (OR = 2.82; 95% CI, 1.18-6.75). Major repeaters had significantly higher suicide risk (lethality) scores (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.23).

CONCLUSION

Major repeaters are a distinctive suicidal phenotype characterized by a distinctive sociodemographic (ie, female gender, low education) and clinical profile (ie, trait anger, substance dependence, anorexia nervosa). If our results are replicated, specific preventive plans should be tailored to major repeaters.

Cluster analysis reveals risk factors for repeated suicide attempts in a multi-ethnic Asian population

This study explores underlying patterns in suicide risk factors using data mining techniques. Medical records of suicide attempters who were admitted to a teaching hospital in January 2004 - December 2006 were studied. Cluster analysis revealed hidden patterns for repeated and single attempters (n=418). Repeated attempters had a more complex clinical picture. Symptoms of psychotic illness, borderline personality disorder, and psychosomatic complaints of insomnia and headaches, reports of adverse life events such as unemployment, divorce and quarrels, experience of negative feelings, and usage of alcohol were associated with risk of repeated overdoses with benzodiazepines and paracetamol. The findings have implications for suicide assessments and interventions.

Risk factors for repetition of self-harm: a systematic review of prospective hospital-based studies

BACKGROUND

Self-harm entails high costs to individuals and society in terms of suicide risk, morbidity and healthcare expenditure. Repetition of self-harm confers yet higher risk of suicide and risk assessment of self-harm patients forms a key component of the health care management of self-harm patients. To date, there has been no systematic review published which synthesises the extensive evidence on risk factors for repetition.

OBJECTIVE

This review is intended to identify risk factors for prospective repetition of self-harm after an index self-harm presentation, irrespective of suicidal intent.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, PsychInfo and Scirus were used to search for relevant publications. We included cohort studies which examining factors associated with prospective repetition among those presenting with self-harm to emergency departments. Journal articles, abstracts, letters and theses in any language published up to June 2012 were considered. Studies were quality-assessed and synthesised in narrative form.

RESULTS

A total of 129 studies, including 329,001 participants, met our inclusion criteria. Some factors were studied extensively and were found to have a consistent association with repetition. These included previous self-harm, personality disorder, hopelessness, history of psychiatric treatment, schizophrenia, alcohol abuse/dependence, drug abuse/dependence, and living alone. However, the sensitivity values of these measures varied greatly across studies. Psychological risk factors and protective factors have been relatively under-researched but show emerging associations with repetition. Composite risk scales tended to have high sensitivity but poor specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

Many risk factors for repetition of self-harm match risk factors for initiation of self-harm, but the most consistent evidence for increased risk of repetition comes from long-standing psychosocial vulnerabilities, rather than characteristics of an index episode. The current review will enhance prediction of self-harm and assist in the efficient allocation of intervention resources.

Suicide reattempters: a systematic review

The aim of this study is to identify the characteristic features of suicide reattempters. The recognition of the suicide reattempters population as a distinct clinical population may encourage future preventive and clinical work with this high-risk subgroup and thus reduce deaths. A systematic literature review was carried out in order to identify the key demographic, psychological, and clinical variables associated with the repetition of suicide attempts. In addition, we wished to analyze the operational definitions of the repetition of suicide attempts proposed in the scientific literature. Studies published from 2000 to 2012 were identified in PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases and were selected according to predetermined criteria. We examined a total of 1480 articles and selected 86 that matched our search criteria. The literature is heterogeneous, with no consensus regarding the operational definitions of suicide reattempters. Comparison groups in the literature have also been inconsistent and include subjects making a single lifetime attempt and subjects who did not reattempt during a defined study period. Suicide reattempters were associated with higher rates of the following characteristics: unemployment, unmarried status, diagnosis of mental disorders, suicidal ideation, stressful life events, and family history of suicidal behavior. Additional research is needed to establish adequate differentiation and effective treatment plans for this population.

Dimensions of suicidality: analyzing the domains of the SIS-MAP Suicide Risk Assessment Instrument and the development of a brief screener

This study aimed at validating the domains of suicidality assessed by the Scale for Impact of Suicidality-Management, Assessment and Planning of Care (SIS-MAP) and creating a brief screener based on the full scale. A total of 50 individuals with suicidal ideation were given the SIS-MAP interview. Support was found for these domains of suicide risk; in particular, the subscales of ideation and protective factors for suicide risk were highly reliable. For each domain of suicidality, items most predictive of total risk index scores were selected to create a brief screener aimed at expediting the assessment process. The screener was reliable, predicted overall suicide risk index scores, and approached significance in predicting subsequent suicide attempts.

The development of a population-level clinical screening tool for self-harm repetition and suicide: the ReACT Self-Harm Rule

BACKGROUND

Self-harm is a common reason for Emergency Department (ED) attendance. We aimed to develop a clinical tool to help identify patients at higher risk of repeat self-harm, or suicide, within 6 months of an ED self-harm presentation.

METHOD

The tool, the ReACT Self-Harm Rule, was derived using multicentre data from a prospective cohort study. Binary recursive partitioning was applied to data from two centres, and data from a separate centre were used to test the tool. There were 29 571 self-harm presentations to five hospital EDs between January 2003 and June 2007, involving 18 680 adults aged ⩾16 years. We estimated sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values to measure the performance of the tool.

RESULTS

A self-harm presentation was classified as higher risk if at least one of the following factors was present: recent self-harm (in the past year), living alone or homelessness, cutting as a method of harm and treatment for a current psychiatric disorder. The rule performed with 95% sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI) 94-95] and 21% specificity (95% CI 21-22), and had a positive predictive value of 30% (95% CI 30-31) and a negative predictive value of 91% (95% CI 90-92) in the derivation centres; it identified 83/92 of all subsequent suicides.

CONCLUSIONS

The ReACT Self-Harm Rule might be used as a screening tool to inform the process of assessing self-harm presentations to ED. The four risk factors could also be used as an adjunct to in-depth psychosocial assessment to help guide risk formulation. The use of multicentre data helped to maximize the generalizability of the tool, but we need to further verify its external validity in other localities.

Distinguishing the relevant features of frequent suicide attempters

BACKGROUND

In spite of the high prevalence of suicide behaviours and the magnitude of the resultant burden, little is known about why individuals reattempt. We aim to investigate the relationships between clinical risk factors and the repetition of suicidal attempts.

METHODS

1349 suicide attempters were consecutively recruited in the Emergency Room (ER) of two academic hospitals in France and Spain. Patients were extensively assessed and demographic and clinical data obtained. Data mining was used to determine the minimal number of variables that blinded the rest in relation to the number of suicide attempts. Using this set, a probabilistic graph ranking relationships with the target variable was constructed.

RESULTS

The most common diagnoses among suicide attempters were affective disorders, followed by anxiety disorders. Risk of frequent suicide attempt was highest among middle-aged subjects, and diminished progressively with advancing age of onset at first attempt. Anxiety disorders significantly increased the risk of presenting frequent suicide attempts. Pathway analysis also indicated that frequent suicide attempts were linked to greater odds for alcohol and substance abuse disorders and more intensive treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel statistical methods found several clinical features that were associated with a history of frequent suicide attempts. The identified pathways may promote new hypothesis-driven studies of suicide attempts and preventive strategies.

The role of parental bonding and early maladaptive schemas in the risk of suicidal behavior repetition

The current study examined the role of perceived parental bonding and early maladaptive schemas in suicidal behavior. Participants completed measures of perceived parental bonding; schemas; risk of repeating suicidal behavior; anxiety; and depression following their presentation at Accident and Emergency with suicidal behavior. A suicidal behavior group (n = 60) differed from a comparison clinical (n = 46) and non-clinical (n = 48) group on measures of early maladaptive schemas, anxiety, and depression. No significant difference was noted between the suicidal behavior group and the comparison clinical group on a measure of parental bonding. Within the suicidal behavior group, significant associations were indicated between perceived parental bonding and risk of repetition of suicidal behavior; and early maladaptive schemas and risk of repetition of suicidal behavior. Early maladaptive schemas were found to mediate the relationship between perceived parental bonding and risk of repetition of suicidal behavior, with schemas of Social Alienation and Defectiveness/Shame offering mediator roles. The findings of the current study emphasize the complexities of suicidal behavior and factors that are associated with suicidal behavior. Although causality cannot be assumed, the findings highlight the importance and inter-relationships of not only perceived early experiences, but of underlying schemas in relation to suicidal behavior.

Repetition and severity of suicide attempts across the life cycle: a comparison by age group between suicide victims and controls with severe depression

BACKGROUND

Suicide attempts have been shown to be less common in older age groups, with repeated attempts generally being more common in younger age groups and severe attempts in older age groups. Consistently, most studies have shown an increased suicide risk after attempts in older age. However, little is known about the predictive value of age on repeated and severe suicide attempts for accomplished suicide. The aim of the present study was to investigate the reduced incidence for initial, repeated, or severe suicide attempts with age in suicide victims and controls by gender.

METHODS

The records of 100 suicide victims and matched controls with severe depression admitted to the Department of Psychiatry, Lund University Hospital, Sweden between 1956 and 1969, were evaluated and the subjects were monitored up to 2006. The occurrence of suicide attempts (first, repeated, or severe, by age group) was analysed for suicide victims and controls, with gender taken into consideration.

RESULTS

There was a reduced risk for an initial suicide attempt by older age in females (suicide victims and controls) and male controls (but not suicide victims). The risk for repeated suicide attempts appeared to be reduced in the older age groups in female controls as compared to female suicide victims. The risk for severe suicide attempts seemed reduced in the older age groups in female suicide victims. This risk was also reduced in male controls and in male controls compared to male suicide victims.

CONCLUSION

In the older age groups repeated attempts appeared to be predictive for suicide in women and severe attempts predictive in men.

The Relationship Between Problem-Solving and Autobiographical Memory in Parasuicide Patients

The relationship between effectiveness of interpersonal problem-solving and specificity of autobiographical memory was examined for 35 patients admitted to an inner-city District General Hospital following a deliberate drug-overdose. The results replicated those of Evans, Williams, O'Loughlin and Howells (1992) in finding a significant correlation between ineffective problem-solving and the over-general retrieval of autobiographical memories, giving further support to the suggestion that an over-general memory database may underpin the problem-solving deficits characteristic of parasuicide patients. However, the correlation coefficient computed was notably lower than in the Evans et al. study and an attempt is made to explain this discrepancy on the basis of differences in the levels of psychopathology between the patients involved in each study.

New Developments in the Understanding and Treatment of Suicidal Behaviour

Recent developments in the understanding, assessment and treatment of suicidal behaviour are reviewed. The accumulated social and demographic knowledge of suicidal populations has proved to be clinically useful in shaping the general level of concern, but at the individual level an understanding of the psychological processes involved in suicidal behaviour is required. Studies examining psychological processes involved in suicidal behaviour is required. Studies examining psychological processes in parasuicidal groups have revealed a number of deficits, including poor interpersonal problem solving, hopelessness about the future, and reduced ability to regulate affect. Research has also begun to look at some of the processes underlying these deficits, such as over-general retrieval of autobiographical memories and reduced anticipation of specific positive experiences. The clinical picture is now more optimistic, with therapies, such as Dialectical Behaviour Therapy, which focus on using problem solving strategies with those clients who are most vulnerable to repeat parasuicide episodes, producing demonstrable delays in parasuicide and reduced risk of repetition. The importance of the relationship between research and clinical practice is emphasized.

Factors Associated with Repeated Suicide Attempts

Background: This study compares sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of 102 first-time hospital-treated suicide attempters (first-evers) with a group of 101 repeat suicide attempters (repeaters) consecutively admitted to a general hospital in Brazil, during the intake phase of the WHO Multisite Intervention Study on Suicidal Behaviors (SUPRE-MISS). Aims: To compare sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of first-time hospital-treated suicide attempters (first-evers) with a group of repeat suicide attempters (repeaters). Methods: A standardized interview and psychometric scales were administered to all patients. Results: Repetition was associated with being of female sex (OR = 2.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2–6.2), a housewife (OR = 3.8; 95% CI = 1.2–11.8), and having a score above median on the Beck Depression Inventory (OR = 5.2; 95% CI = 1.7–15.6). Conclusions: The findings suggest that repeaters, namely, depressed housewives who have attempted suicide previously, need specific treatment strategies in order to avoid future suicide attempts.

A risk index for 12-month suicide attempts in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R)

BACKGROUND

Clinical judgments about the likelihood of suicide attempt would be aided by an index of risk factors that could be quickly assessed in diverse settings. We sought to develop such a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts among suicide ideators.

METHOD

The National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), a household survey of adults aged 18+, assessed the 12-month occurrence of suicide ideation, plans and attempts in a subsample of 5692 respondents. Retrospectively assessed correlates include history of prior suicidality, sociodemographics, parental psychopathology and 12-month DSM-IV disorders.

RESULTS

Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans and attempts are 2.6, 0.7 and 0.4% respectively. Although ideators with a plan are more likely to make an attempt (31.9%) than those without a plan (9.6%), 43% of attempts were described as unplanned. History of prior attempts is the strongest correlate of 12-month attempts. Other significant correlates include shorter duration of ideation, presence of a suicide plan, and several sociodemographic and parental psychopathology variables. Twelve-month disorders are not powerful correlates. A four-category summary index of correlates is strongly related to attempts among ideators [area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC)=0.88]. The distribution (conditional probability of attempt) of the risk index is: 19.0% very low (0.0%), 51.1% low (3.5%), 16.2% intermediate (21.3%), and 13.7% high (78.1%). Two-thirds (67.1%) of attempts were made by ideators in the high-risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

A short, preliminary risk index based on retrospectively reported responses to fully structured questions is strongly correlated with 12-month suicide attempts among ideators, with a high concentration of attempts among high-risk ideators.

A Clinical Tool for Assessing Risk After Self-Harm

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Our aim is to develop a risk-stratification model for use by emergency department (ED) clinical staff in the assessment of patients attending with self-harm.

METHODS

Participants were patients who attended 5 EDs in Manchester and Salford, England, after self-harm between September 1, 1997, and February 28, 2001. Social, demographic, and clinical information was collected for each patient at each attendance. With data from the Manchester and Salford Self-Harm Project, a clinical decision rule was derived by using recursive partitioning to discriminate between patients at higher and lower risk of repetition or subsequent suicide occurring within 6 months. Data from 3 EDs were used for the derivation set. The model was validated with data from the remaining 2 EDs.

RESULTS

Data for 9,086 patients who presented with self-harm were collected during this study period, including 17% that reattended within 6 months and 22 patients who died by suicide within 6 months. A 4-question rule, with a sensitivity of 94% (92.1-95.0% [95% confidence interval]) and specificity of 25% (24.2-26.5% [95% confidence interval]), was derived to identify patients at higher risk of repetition or suicide.

CONCLUSION

Application of this simple, highly sensitive rule may facilitate assessment in the ED and help to focus psychiatric resources on patients at higher risk.

Deliberate self-harm in older people revisited

BACKGROUND

Deliberate self harm (DSH) in later life is under researched and is believed to be related to both mental illness and suicide.

AIMS

The aim of the study was to examine deliberate self-harm (DSH) in older people presenting to acute hospital services over three years.

METHOD

This was a retrospective observational study. We reviewed 97 episodes of DSH involving 82 patients aged 65 and over referred to the Liaison Psychiatric Service of the Tees and North East Yorkshire NHS Trust South Locality from 2000 to 2002.

RESULTS

There was a year on year increase in the number of older people presenting with DSH, especially in men. Twenty-one percent of older men had no discernible psychiatric diagnosis. There were a small number of people who repeated DSH within a year and males were as likely to be repeaters as females. Twenty-three percent of all patients saw a General Practitioner (GP) in the 7 days before the episode of DSH and this increased to 58% in the 4 weeks preceding the episode of DSH. More males (56%) than females (26%) who presented with DSH were married. The most common method of DSH (93%) was medication overdose of which 66% used prescribed medication. There was no difference in the methods used to self-harm between men or women.

CONCLUSION

DSH in the elderly may start to mirror some of the characteristics seen in younger adults with DSH. While the numbers of DSH per year are small among the elderly compared to younger adults, the observations suggest an increase in DSH in men. Marriage may no longer be a protective factor in prevention of DSH among older men. Longer-term observational studies of DSH in older people are required to confirm these changing patterns. GPs may have an important role to play in prevention of DSH in later life.

Deliberate self-harm in alcohol and drug misusers: patient characteristics and patterns of clinical care

The aims of this study were to describe the characteristics of alcohol and drug misusers presenting to a general hospital following suicide attempts and to investigate the patterns of clinical care they received before and after the attempts. The Oxford Monitoring System for Attempted Suicide and patient case-notes were used to obtain information on alcohol and drug misusers assessed by the general hospital psychiatric services after deliberate self-harm in 1992. Of 724 patients, 200 (28%) were substance misusers (36% of males, 23% of females). Both alcoholics and drug misusers were more likely than other attempters to be male, have histories of personality disorder and criminal offences and to make repeat attempts, and the drug misusers were more likely to be living alone and unemployed. These are characteristics associated with particularly high risk of suicide. A large proportion of the substance misusers had received specific treatment for their misuse before their attempts and the majority were offered this afterwards. Over a quarter did not accept the care they were offered. The general hospital management of attempted suicide patients must include systematic assessment for evidence of alcohol and drug misuse and maintain close links with substance misuse services. Patients identified as having problems in the use of alcohol without having developed dependence and/or physical symptoms are a group that warrants specific attention. Audits should be conducted in general hospitals to ensure that sufficient attention is being paid to the detection and management of suicide attempters with substance misuse.

Differential effects of manual assisted cognitive behavior therapy in the treatment of recurrent deliberate self-harm and personality disturbance: the POPMACT study

A total of 480 patients were treated in a large, multicenter randomized trial of a brief form of cognitive therapy, manual-assisted cognitive behavior therapy (MACT) versus treatment as usual (TAU) for recurrent deliberate self-harm. Each patient was randomized after a self-harm episode assessed at an accident and emergency center and followed up over 1 year. The main hypothesis tested was that those allocated to MACT would have a lower proportion of self-harm episodes in the succeeding year. A total of 60% of those allocated to MACT had face-to-face treatment and 430 (90%) of all patients had self-harm data recorded after 1 year. Although the results showed no significant difference between those repeating self-harm in the MACT group (39%) compared with the TAU group (46%) (P = 0.20), the treatment was cost effective (10% cheaper than TAU) and the frequency of self-harm episodes was fewer (50%) in the MACT group. A total of nine of 10 patients had some personality disturbance (42% of these with disorder), and for those where information on parasuicide events was collected, the proportion having a repeat episode ranged from 33% to 63% for different personality disorders. Those with BPD were most likely to repeat episodes quickly (mean 89 days for 25% to repeat) with dissocial personality disorder (equivalent mean 384 days) the slowest to repeat. Total costs were significantly greater in those with personality disorder and were reduced in those allocated to MACT; this saving was reversed in those with borderline disorder. On average, MACT appeared to increase the cost of those patients with BPD (BPD) and reduce the cost of those with other personality disorders. It is concluded that MACT has value in preventing self-harm cost effectively but this appears to be confined mainly to those who do not have BPD.

Deliberate self-harm in adolescents: a study of characteristics and trends in Oxford, 1990-2000

BACKGROUND

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a major healthcare problem in adolescents. Identification of targets for prevention and treatment requires ongoing monitoring of trends and characteristics of those involved.

METHOD

Using data from the Oxford Monitoring System for Attempted Suicide, we have examined trends and characteristics in adolescents aged 12-18 years presenting to a general hospital because of DSH between 1990 and 2000.

RESULTS

The numbers of presentations by females increased during the study period. An association of DSH with school stress was suggested by there being fewer presentations during the school holiday periods, the largest number in term times occurring on Mondays, and study problems being common. Self-poisoning was involved in more than 90% of episodes. Paracetamol overdoses decreased following legislation on pack sizes of analgesics. Antidepressant overdoses increased during the study period, in keeping with the rise in prescriptions. Drug misuse increased markedly in the boys, as did a history of violence to others. Being a victim of violence increased in girls. Suicide intent was higher in males. Problems faced by the adolescents showed marked gender differences, and differed between age groups and between those carrying out their first DSH episode and repeaters.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical management of DSH in adolescents requires a range of responses, often involving multiservice and multidisciplinary input. Preventive initiatives in schools are also required.

Service variation in baseline variables and prediction of risk in a randomised controlled trial of psychological treatment in repeated parasuicide: the POPMACT Study

The treatment protocol and baseline characteristics of 480 subjects with a history of repeated parasuicide recruited in five centres to a randomised therapeutic trial of manual assisted cognitive-behaviour therapy (MACT) and treatment as usual (TAU) are described. Most patients had significant anxiety and depressive disturbance with 42% having a personality disorder. Variation in service policies influenced recruitment, with earlier assessment centres seeing people with more frequent episodes of self-harm and greater parasuicide risk than later ones. Parasuicide risk was also significantly greater in those with their first parasuicide episode at an earlier age and in those with a more recent latest episode.

Can the Edinburgh Risk of Repetition Scale predict repetition of deliberate self-poisoning in an Australian clinical setting?

This study tested the ability of the Edinburgh Risk of Repetition Scale (ERRS) to identify patients at high risk for repeat deliberate self-poisoning (DSP). Consecutive DSP patients (N= 1,317) over a 3-year period were followed-up for 12 months. A statistically significant relationship between ERRS scores and repetition was observed; however, sensitivity and specificity were low. Logistic regression analysis revealed only "previous parasuicide" contributed significantly to repetition. The ERRS had limited value in identifying patients at high risk of repeat DSP in this clinical population.

Do we manage deliberate self-harm appropriately? Characteristics of general hospital patients who are offered psychiatric aftercare

BACKGROUND The appropriateness of psychiatric management decisions following an episode of deliberate self-harm is under-researched. AIM To determine whether the offer of follow-up or psychiatric admission by psychiatric doctors is related to known predictors of repetition of self-harm or completed suicide, and recognition of a depressive disorder. METHODS Prospective survey of 158 adult self-harm referrals from the general hospital. RESULTS Offer of aftercare was significantly associated with a definite wish to die at the time of the attempt (P&lt;0.001), Beck's Suicide Intent score (P=0.001), Beck's Hopelessness score (P=0.001), age (P&lt;0.01) and an ICD-10 diagnosis of depression (P&lt;0.001). Psychiatric admission was more likely for men (P=0.01) and accommodation problems (P=0.04) and less likely for relationship problems (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS Psychiatrists are selectively admitting or following up patients from established high-risk groups. Given the limitations of suicide prevention and mental health resources, their management is appropriate.

Staff perceptions of care for deliberate self-harm patients in rural Western Australia: a qualitative study

Suicide has been a major community concern in Esperance, a geographically isolated port on the south coast of Western Australia. This study explores the views of regional health staff on barriers to the effective management of deliberate self-harm (DSH) and ways in which those barriers could be addressed. Semi-structured interviews were tape-recorded, transcribed and subjected to qualitative content analysis. Interviewees included 77% of general practitioners (n = 7), 18% of nurses (n = 13) and 55% of mental health professionals (n = 5). The most important barrier was a lack of structure to treating DSH, resulting in deficiencies and inconsistencies in its management. Suggestions to improve the management of DSH included better communication between services, support for nurses in raising the issue of suicide, use of a simple risk assessment tool, the development of a nurse liaison position, and a multidisciplinary planning group. The higher rates of DSH and completed suicide in rural and remote regions compared with metropolitan areas make secondary prevention particularly important.

Developing A&E nursing responses to people who deliberately self-harm: the provision and evaluation of a series of reflective workshops

Accident & Emergency (A&E) departments and Medical Admission Units (MAUs) are an essential part of emergency mental health care in the UK. Deliberate self-harm and attempted suicide are particular challenges to nursing staff in such departments. Two registered mental nurses with experience of education facilitated a series of workshops with nurses from four A&E departments, two Minor Injuries Units and two MAUs. These were focused upon the assessment and management of deliberate self-harm and attempted suicide. During the workshops, participants provided systematic information on presentations of deliberate self-harm and attempted suicide, and on their professional responses to such presentations. These accounts provided invaluable information on deliberate self-harm and attempted suicide as seen by nursing staff in A&E and MAUs. Critical reflection upon nursing responses to these presentations revealed particular concerns nurses had relating to their experience with this client group which might inform future practice. Evaluation of the workshops indicated a subsequent decrease in work-related stress, which was probably a consequence of improved professional coping responses by the nurses concerned.

An evaluation of the implementation of a liaison service in an A&E department

This paper describes the results of an evaluation of a multidisciplinary liaison service based in an A&E department of a district general hospital in South Wales. The aims of the services were to increase the rate of referral for psychosocial assessment of individuals who presented at the department following acts of deliberate self-harm and to increase the number of such assessments completed within 24 h. The paper describes the context in which such a service was developed and outlines how this preliminary evaluation was completed. Data were collected from hospital records, over two corresponding five-month time-periods, in the year before the implementation of the service and the year following implementation of the service. The results show that the implementation of the service led to a statistically significant increase in the rate of referral for assessment by accident and emergency staff. Amongst other positive outcomes, the rate of repeat presentations was reduced for the period of one year following initial presentation. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to other research in the area and the suggestion is made that nursing staff may be more clinically and cost effective in completing psychosocial assessments in A&E departments than medical staff.

The timing of acts of deliberate self-harm: is there any relation with suicidal intent, mental disorder or psychiatric management?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the common perception that more serious suicide attempts tend to occur earlier in the day.

METHODS

Prospective study of 158 adults referred for psychiatric assessment from the general hospital following an episode of deliberate self-harm. The main outcome measures used were Beck's Suicide Intent score, ICD-10 psychiatric diagnosis, alcohol consumption at the time of the attempt, and follow-up decision recorded by the interviewing duty psychiatrist. The patient also completed a checklist of current precipitating problems.

RESULTS

A marked circadian variation in timing of the act was found, peaking between 2200 and 2400 h. "Early" acts (0300-1459 h) were significantly less likely to involve alcohol consumption, more likely to lead to admission to a medical ward, and involved more patient-identified problems than "late" acts. People who took overdoses early in the day were more likely to have concerns about their own mental health. Compared to earlier acts of self-harm, late evening (2200-2359 h) cases were less likely to be diagnosed as depressed or offered psychiatric follow up. No relation was found between time of day of self-harm and Beck's Suicide Intent score.

CONCLUSIONS

Implications arise regarding clinical risk assessment and current staffing levels in the accident and emergency department. The interviewing psychiatrist could concentrate on excluding depression and teaching problem solving to those who self-harm in the morning or afternoon, and on the detection and treatment of alcohol dependence for late evening cases.

A thematic analysis of suicide notes

The analysis of suicide notes is an integral part of understanding suicidal behaviour. To this end, Leenaars (1996, 1992) has developed the Thematic Guide to Suicide Prediction (TGSP) for profiling the psychological correlates of suicide. The utility of this tool in suicide prevention, however, is not known. This study applied the TGSP to suicide notes (n = 45), interpreted in the light of coroner's inquest papers, drawn from a Northern Irish population. The results yielded support for the existence of psychological suicidal correlates. Moreover, qualitative differences between depressed and not depressed notewriters and those with and without a previous suicidal attempt were identified. For example, depressed suicides were more likely to communicate difficulties in developing attachments, or to exhibit cognitive constriction than nondepressed notewriters. Analysis of age differences was limited because of the paucity of suicide notes (in this sample, written by individuals aged 65 years or older). This research has further helped to identify psychological differences that should be beneficial in the prevention of suicide. Such differences should be integrated into existing risk assessment schedules. It is also argued that the analysis of suicide notes should form one strand in an integrated research framework.

General hospital services for deliberate self-poisoning: an expensive road to nowhere?

This study was designed to investigate the clinical and economic aspects of deliberate self-poisoning services in four teaching hospitals in Leeds, Leicester, Manchester and Nottingham. We investigated the management of the current self-harm episode, including direct in-hospital costs, in 456 individuals who presented to hospital on a total of 477 occasions with deliberate self-poisoning during a 4-week period in 1996. Fewer than half of the patients received specialist psychosocial assessment or follow-up. Patients were more likely to receive an assessment if they were already in contact with psychiatric services, had a history of previous overdoses, if they presented during working hours, or if they lived near the hospital. Patients who were admitted were nearly twice as likely to receive specialist assessment, and those who received a specialist assessment were nearly three times as likely to be offered follow-up. In-patient days and days on the intensive care unit accounted for 47% and 8% of the total costs, respectively. This study suggests that general hospital services are disorganised, with evidence of inequitable access to specialist assessment and after-care. This state of affairs cannot be justified on financial or clinical grounds.

Crisis telephone consultation for deliberate self-harm patients: effects on repetition

BACKGROUND

No interventions have been shown to be effective in reducing deliberate self-harm (DSH) repetition in this group of patients as a whole.

AIMS

To investigate the effect on repetition of offering emergency telephone support in a group of hospital-admitted DSH patients.

METHOD

A total of 827 DSH patients admitted to medical wards were randomly allocated to either control or intervention (green card) groups. In addition to treatment as usual, the intervention group was offered telephone support should any further crises occur. The main outcome measure was DSH repetition within six months of the index event.

RESULTS

The intervention had no significant effect on the overall DSH repetition rate (odds ratio 1.20, 95% CI 0.82-1.75). Sub-group analysis suggested that response to the intervention differed according to the past history of DSH--subjects with a previous history repeating more often and first-timers appearing to benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

No overall effect of the intervention was shown. Conclusions concerning sub-groups must be regarded as speculative, but they suggest that further assessment of the value of telephone support in first-timer DSH patients is indicated.

The development and evaluation of a brief risk screening instrument for the psychiatric inpatient setting

This paper reports on the development and evaluation of a risk screening instrument (RSI) intended for use by nursing staff on general acute psychiatric admission wards. The RSI comprised six questions concerning patient status on admission (e.g. sex, legal status, employment) and 11 items of judgement concerning the presentation of the patient (e.g. threatening behaviour, suicidality, family and social support). The interrater reliability of the RSI was calculated to be 85% overall. The predictive value of the RSI was not confirmed when tested against harmful incidents subsequent to admission. However, the mean RSI score of that group of patients involved in harmful incidents tended to be higher than that group of patients not involved in such incidents, and all such incidents were found to occur within eight days of admission. Analysis of other data collected in the course of the study revealed discrete patient groups and provided systematic insights into their characteristics, which are potentially valuable when considering the nursing skills required on acute psychiatric inpatient units. It is concluded that the RSI tested has the potential to contribute to the assessment and management of risk within the acute psychiatric inpatient setting, by augmenting and guiding clinical judgement.

Parasuicide: a Singapore perspective

OBJECTIVES

This study was undertaken to determine whether there were ethnic and social variations in parasuicide in the population of Singapore.

METHODS

All hospital records of parasuicide from a teaching hospital between 1991 and 1995 were reviewed. Demographic data, reasons precipitating the suicide attempt and the psychiatric diagnoses were recorded. Altogether 814 patients were identified.

RESULTS

There was a general upward trend of cases admitted from 1991 to 1995. Young females appear to be the most vulnerable accounting for 60.5% of the study population. The Indian community has significantly higher risk of parasuicide compared to the Chinese and Malays. Overdose of medication was the most common method with paracetamol being implicated in 48.1% of all overdoses.

CONCLUSION

Differences in parasuicide rates amongst the three ethnic communities can be attributed to various socio-cultural factors. The phenomenon of parasuicide is of increasing importance as it particularly involves adolescents and young adults. Suicide prevention will continue to present a challenge for mental health professionals in the foreseeable future.

Repetition of parasuicide--ICD-10 personality disorders and adversity

Patients with a history of previous parasuicide were compared to those who had made their first attempt. A scale for suicidal ideation derived from the Scaled Version of the General Health Questionnaire was completed by patients. ICD-10 personality disorder diagnoses were derived from the Standardized Assessment of Personality which was administered to knowledgeable informants. Logistic regression showed that unemployment, increasing severity of suicidal ideation, previous psychiatric treatment and borderline personality disorder increased the risk of reports of previous parasuicide. Anankastic personality disorder decreased the risk of reports of previous parasuicide. Unemployment and specific personality disorders have independent risks for repetition of parasuicide. Specific ICD-10 personality disorders may increase or decrease the risk for repetition of parasuicide.

Suicide attempts among Turkish psychiatric patients

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the sociodemographic characteristics of those who attempt suicide in an Islamic country, the effect of religion on suicide attempts, and the frequency of DSM-III-R diagnoses in suicide attempters referred to the Gazi Medical School Psychiatry Department.

METHOD

Medical records of 185 cases of suicide attempts were reviewed.

RESULTS

There was a predominance of single, female subjects. Students, housewives, and employees represented the 3 largest groups. Drug overdose was the most common method of suicide attempt, and the most common DSM-III-R diagnosis was depression. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt was 43.3%.

CONCLUSION

Suicide is one of the major problems among Turkish psychiatric patients, although the Islamic religion strongly disapproves of it.

Association of short alleles of a VNTR of the serotonin transporter gene with anxiety symptoms in patients presenting after deliberate self harm

The polymorphism of a variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) region of the serotonin transporter gene consists of three alleles containing, respectively, 9 (STin2.9), 10 (STin2.10) and 12 (STin2.12) copies of a repetitive element. The frequencies of the three alleles in 384 individuals presenting after deliberate self harm were the same as a group of 346 controls. However, ratings of anxiety (and state anger) were higher in those patients with genotypes including the shorter repetitive elements. The findings support the hypothesis that, in this group of patients with low rates of severe psychiatric disorder, allelic variation in the serotonin transporter gene may contribute to the expression of anxiety symptoms.

Impulsiveness and deliberate self-harm: a comparison of "first-timers' and "repeaters'

This study investigated differences in impulsivity between patients admitted to hospital for the first time after an act of deliberate self-harm (DSH), and those admitted after repetition of DSH. A total of 185 subjects, who were admitted to general hospital wards and referred for psychiatric assessment after DSH, completed self-report questionnaires including the impulsiveness (I-V-E) questionnaire. The presence of factors known to be predictive of repetition was recorded, including any history of DSH. Subjects with a history of DSH had significantly higher scores for impulsiveness than those who were presenting for the first time. Those presenting for the first time had higher scores than expected when compared with normative data after correcting for age and sex. Impulsiveness appears to be an important personality trait in DSH, in particular repeated DSH, and merits further investigation.

Outcome of deliberate self-poisoning. An examination of risk factors for repetition

BACKGROUND

One of the most important outcomes following an episode of non-fatal deliberate self-poisoning is its repetition.

METHOD

In a prospective follow-up study the subjects were 992 people responsible for 1096 consecutive episodes of deliberate self-poisoning recorded at a teaching hospital accident and emergency department. Risk factors examined were socio-demographic variables, psychiatric and self-harm history, aspects of the self-poisoning episode, and appearance and behaviour at accident and emergency; the frequency of each was compared between those patients who repeated within one year (n = 116) and those who did not (n = 876).

RESULTS

Those who repeated were more likely to have ingested more than one drug, to report a previous episode of self-poisoning, to be aged 25-54, and to have experienced previous psychiatric care or psychiatric admission. They were less likely to be in paid employment, or to have expressed a threat to another person or written a note. The best predictor--previous psychiatric contact--only had a positive predictive value of 21% (95% confidence interval 16-25%).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for repetition of self-poisoning should be kept up-to-date despite modest predictive power. More attention might be paid to clinical rather than socio-demographic aspects of self-harm.

Challenges in preventing suicide

The success of traditional suicide prevention efforts is evaluated and found wanting. Some encouraging recent developments are noted, and it is suggested that suicidologists might also profitably consider the strategies used by professionals dealing with other public health and social problems, such as drug abuse and delinquency.

Clinical evaluation of antidepressant drugs; Guidelines from authorities

Food and Drug Administration, World Health Organisation and Committee on Proprietary Medicinal Products have published guidelines with recommendations how to conduct clinical trials. The guidelines for the clinical evaluation of antidepressant drugs contain a great variety of recommendations how to design phase I, phase II and phase III trials. Especially the pharmaceutical industry will follow these guidelines as much as possible to make the chances to register a new chemical entity as optimal as possible. While FDA and CPMP guidelines are primarily meant to be read by representatives from the pharmaceutical industries, the WHO guidelines give mainly information for clinicians. For the psychiatrist with interest in clinical research on antidepressants it is mandatory to know about the existence of these different guidelines. Fundamental differences between the guidelines do not exist; the methodological and ethical problems concerning placebo-use and relapse-recurrence problems are especially emphasized in the CPMP-guidelines.