Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy in patients with advanced nasopharyngeal cancer: phase III randomized Intergroup study 0099

PURPOSE

The Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) coordinated an Intergroup study with the participation of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG), and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG). This randomized phase III trial compared chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone in patients with nasopharyngeal cancers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Radiotherapy was administered in both arms: 1.8- to 2.0-Gy/d fractions Monday to Friday for 35 to 39 fractions for a total dose of 70 Gy. The investigational arm received chemotherapy with cisplatin 100 mg/m2 on days 1, 22, and 43 during radiotherapy; postradiotherapy, chemotherapy with cisplatin 80 mg/m2 on day 1 and fluorouracil 1,000 mg/m2/d on days 1 to 4 was administered every 4 weeks for three courses. Patients were stratified by tumor stage, nodal stage, performance status, and histology.

RESULTS

Of 193 patients registered, 147 (69 radiotherapy and 78 chemoradiotherapy) were eligible for primary analysis for survival and toxicity. The median progression-free survival (PFS) time was 15 months for eligible patients on the radiotherapy arm and was not reached for the chemo-radiotherapy group. The 3-year PFS rate was 24% versus 69%, respectively (P < .001). The median survival time was 34 months for the radiotherapy group and not reached for the chemo-radiotherapy group, and the 3-year survival rate was 47% versus 78%, respectively (P = .005). One hundred eighty-five patients were included in a secondary analysis for survival. The 3-year survival rate for patients randomized to radiotherapy was 46%, and for the chemoradiotherapy group was 76% (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

We conclude that chemoradiotherapy is superior to radiotherapy alone for patients with advanced nasopharyngeal cancers with respect to PFS and overall survival.

Childhood-Onset Lupus Nephritis in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry: Short-Term Kidney Status and Variation in Care

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to characterize short-term kidney status and describe variation in early care utilization in a multicenter cohort of patients with childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE) and nephritis.

METHODS

We analyzed previously collected prospective data from North American patients with cSLE with kidney biopsy-proven nephritis enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry from March 2017 through December 2019. We determined the proportion of patients with abnormal kidney status at the most recent registry visit and applied generalized linear mixed models to identify associated factors. We also calculated frequency of medication use, both during induction and ever recorded.

RESULTS

We identified 222 patients with kidney biopsy-proven nephritis, with 64% class III/IV nephritis on initial biopsy. At the most recent registry visit at median (interquartile range) of 17 (8-29) months from initial kidney biopsy, 58 of 106 patients (55%) with available data had abnormal kidney status. This finding was associated with male sex (odds ratio [OR] 3.88, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.21-12.46) and age at cSLE diagnosis (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.49). Patients with class IV nephritis were more likely than class III to receive cyclophosphamide and rituximab during induction. There was substantial variation in mycophenolate, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab ever use patterns across rheumatology centers.

CONCLUSION

In this cohort with predominately class III/IV nephritis, male sex and older age at cSLE diagnosis were associated with abnormal short-term kidney status. We also observed substantial variation in contemporary medication use for pediatric lupus nephritis between pediatric rheumatology centers. Additional studies are needed to better understand the impact of this variation on long-term kidney outcomes.

Filtration performance of three models of N95 filtering facepiece respirators following clinical usage and vaporized hydrogen peroxide decontamination

BACKGROUND

N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs) are essential personal protective equipment (PPE) for protecting healthcare workers from airborne pathogens.

AIM

To perform the first large-scale evaluation of particulate filtration efficiency (PFE) of three models of N95 FFRs following clinical usage and vaporized hydrogen peroxide (VHP) decontamination.

METHODS

Three variables were assessed for effect on PFE following VHP decontamination: VHP sterilizer model, N95 respirator model, and prior N95 clinical usage.

FINDINGS

The VHP sterilizer model and N95 FFR model impacted PFE performance. Worn N95 FFRs had a 91% lower odds of exhibiting ≥95% PFE compared with the control.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights the importance of validating any N95 FFR decontamination programme in its entirety, including prior clinical usage.

Cohort profile: the ESC EURObservational Research Programme Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (NSTEMI) Registry

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) Registry aims to identify international patterns in NSTEMI management in clinical practice and outcomes against the 2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without ST-segment-elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutively hospitalised adult NSTEMI patients (n = 3620) were enrolled between 11 March 2019 and 6 March 2021, and individual patient data prospectively collected at 287 centres in 59 participating countries during a two-week enrolment period per centre. The registry collected data relating to baseline characteristics, major outcomes (in-hospital death, acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, bleeding, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and 30-day mortality) and guideline-recommended NSTEMI care interventions: electrocardiogram pre- or in-hospital, pre-hospitalization receipt of aspirin, echocardiography, coronary angiography, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, smoking cessation advice, dietary advice, and prescription on discharge of aspirin, P2Y12 inhibition, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, and statin.

CONCLUSION

The EORP NSTEMI Registry is an international, prospective registry of care and outcomes of patients treated for NSTEMI, which will provide unique insights into the contemporary management of hospitalised NSTEMI patients, compliance with ESC 2015 NSTEMI Guidelines, and identify potential barriers to optimal management of this common clinical presentation associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Intraarticular steroids as DMARD-sparing agents for juvenile idiopathic arthritis flares: Analysis of the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry

BACKGROUND

Children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) who achieve a drug free remission often experience a flare of their disease requiring either intraarticular steroids (IAS) or systemic treatment with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). IAS offer an opportunity to recapture disease control and avoid exposure to side effects from systemic immunosuppression. We examined a cohort of patients treated with IAS after drug free remission and report the probability of restarting systemic treatment within 12 months.

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of patients from the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance (CARRA) Registry who received IAS for a flare after a period of drug free remission. Historical factors and clinical characteristics and of the patients including data obtained at the time of treatment were analyzed.

RESULTS

We identified 46 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Of those with follow up data available 49% had restarted systemic treatment 6 months after IAS injection and 70% had restarted systemic treatment at 12 months. The proportion of patients with prior use of a biologic DMARD was the only factor that differed between patients who restarted systemic treatment those who did not, both at 6 months (79% vs 35%, p < 0.01) and 12 months (81% vs 33%, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

While IAS are an option for all patients who flare after drug free remission, it may not prevent the need to restart systemic treatment. Prior use of a biologic DMARD may predict lack of success for IAS. Those who previously received methotrexate only, on the other hand, are excellent candidates for IAS.

Use of an active esophageal cooling device in zero-fluoroscopy settings without intracardiac echocardiography

Background

Active esophageal cooling is increasingly being utilized during radiofrequency (RF) ablation to achieve pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). In addition to data showing decreases in severe esophageal injury with active esophageal cooling, placement of a commercially available cooling device can be identified on intracardiac echocardiography (ICE), allowing implementation in zero-fluoroscopy settings. In the case of procedures that do not have ICE available, an alternative method to determine proper placement of an esophageal cooling device is needed in zero-fluoroscopy settings..

Purpose

To describe a large single-center approach to visualizing an active esophageal cooling device into a 3D mapping system.

Methods

We reviewed data on patients treated with RF ablation for PVI procedures over the time frame 1/1/2020 to 12/31/21. Active esophageal cooling was phased in towards the end of 2020. For all cases, transseptal puncture was performed with the use of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE). After successful transseptal puncture, the TEE probe was removed, and either a single-sensor LET probe or an active esophageal cooling device was placed. For the active cooling device, the distal tip was cut, and an SL-1 (0.032 inch, 150 cm length) guidewire was placed through the central lumen of the cooling device (used for gastric suctioning and enteral feeding). The guidewire was pinned via a pin block to the 3D mapping system (EnSite, Abbott). Unipolar configuration was used to generate a 3D map, which was then visualized during device placement. Placement was confirmed after visualizing the guidewire tip on the 3D map passing below the coronary sinus (Figure 1).

Results

A total of 417 cases were performed over the study timeframe. The mean age of patients was 65±10 years, and 40% were female. A total of 5 complications were recorded (3 pericardial effusions, 1 pseudoaneurysm, and 1 air embolism). A total of 156 patients received LET monitoring, and 261 received active esophageal cooling. The mean procedure length was 109±24 minutes for cases utilizing LET monitoring, and 93±11 minutes for cases utilizing active esophageal cooling. Visualization of the active esophageal cooling device on the cardiac mapping system was possible in all cases.

Conclusions

We describe here the largest series to date utilizing active esophageal cooling in a zero-fluoroscopy, zero-ICE setting. With increasing efforts to reduce fluoroscopy, this approach allows pursuit of zero-fluoroscopy even in systems without the availability of ICE, while maintaining procedural speed and safety.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private company. Main funding source(s): Attune Medical

Patient age, gender, and early outcome after PVI atrial ablation: analysis of a large regional database

Background

Demographics such as patient age and gender have been inconsistently found to be associated with outcome after ablation to achieve pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). A database created by the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council (DFWHC) includes a collaboration of 90 member hospitals in North Texas reporting data on procedures, diagnoses, and discharges. All patients in this system can be followed longitudinally via unique identification number. The availability of this large, regional database offers opportunities to better characterize trends.

Objective

Characterize the association between age, gender, and 60-day outcome in patients receiving PVI over a 7-year time span.

Methods

Using the DFWHC database, all PVI procedures performed from January 2013 to December 2019 were identified. Follow up visits for this cohort of patients were then obtained, and outcomes recorded. Early mortalities (occurring less than 60 days from PVI), mean age and patient gender were determined for each of the groups and compared.

Results

A total of 11,880 unique PVI procedures were performed over this 7 year timeframe. Mean patient age was 64±10 years, with 66% male and 34% female. A total of 130 mortalities at any time after PVI occurred (1.1%), with 19 (0.16%) occurring within 60 days of the procedure. In multivariate analysis, the risk of 60-day mortality increased with year of procedure (OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.4) and female gender (OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.57 to 3.6), and decreased with age (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.03); however no variable demonstrated statistically significant association with outcome.

Conclusions

Although trends towards increasing mortality over time and in female patients were seen, the total number of events remained low, and no statistically significant associations between age, gender, and early mortality were identified in this large regional database.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Sex differences among patients with tachyarrhythmias and bradyarrhythmias following acute myocardial infarction

Background

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is commonly complicated by ventricular, supraventricular tachycardias and high-grade atrioventricular block (HAVB) which may result in increased morbidity and mortality.

Purpose

To evaluate the sex differences in tachyarrhythmias and HAVB, and their associated outcomes following AMI.

Methods

Using the Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Survey (ACSIS) survey database from 2000–2018, we analyzed the specific incidence rates for arrhythmias including: sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and HAVB in men and women after AMI. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the sex differences of in-hospital arrhythmias after AMI. Multivariate cox proportional hazard models were performed to assess the impact of arrhythmias on 1-year mortality.

Results

In this cohort study of 14280 patients with 3159 (22.1%) women and 11121 (77.9%) men, 316 (2.2%) experienced ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) (sustained VT or secondary VF) with similar rates among men and women (2.3% and 2.2%, respectively, p=0.62). Compared to men, women were less likely to experience primary VF (1.6% vs 2.3%, p=0.034), but more likely to experience AF (8.6% and 5.0%, p&lt;0.001). 372 (2.6%) patients experienced HAVB with higher rates of HAVB in women than men (3.7% and 2.3%, respectively, p&lt;0.001).

After multivariate analyses, the association with primary VF was attenuated (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.80, p=0.15) but women remained more likely to experience AF (adjusted OR =1.24, p=0.01) and HAVB (adjusted OR =1.28, p=0.04). The occurrence of VAs was found to be associated with increased mortality in both men (adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) =3.68, p&lt;0.01) and women (adjusted HR=3.87, p&lt;0.01) without a significant difference between the groups (p for interaction=0.203). The occurrence of AF was found to be associated with increased mortality in both men (adjusted HR=1.64, p&lt;0.001) and women (adjusted HR=1.34, p&lt;0.001) with a significant difference between the groups (p for interaction&lt;0.001). HAVB was found to be associated with increased mortality in both men (adjusted HR=2.31, p&lt;0.001) and women (adjusted HR=2.26, p&lt;0.001) without a significant difference between the groups (p of interaction=0.21).

Conclusions

The incidence rates of VAs after AMI were similar in men and women, except for primary VF, which was more common among men. Women experienced more AF and HAVB than men. VAs, AF and HAVB were found to be associated with increased mortality.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Arterial Spin-Labeling Perfusion Metrics in Pediatric Posterior Fossa Tumor Surgery

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Pediatric posterior fossa tumors often present with hydrocephalus; postoperatively, up to 25% of patients develop cerebellar mutism syndrome. Arterial spin-labeling is a noninvasive means of quantifying CBF and bolus arrival time. The aim of this study was to investigate how changes in perfusion metrics in children with posterior fossa tumors are modulated by cerebellar mutism syndrome and hydrocephalus requiring pre-resection CSF diversion.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty-four patients were prospectively scanned at 3 time points (preoperatively, postoperatively, and at 3-month follow-up) with single- and multi-inflow time arterial spin-labeling sequences. Regional analyses of CBF and bolus arrival time were conducted using coregistered anatomic parcellations. ANOVA and multivariable, linear mixed-effects modeling analysis approaches were used. The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03471026).

RESULTS

CBF increased after tumor resection and at follow-up scanning (P = .045). Bolus arrival time decreased after tumor resection and at follow-up scanning (P = .018). Bolus arrival time was prolonged (P = .058) following the midline approach, compared with cerebellar hemispheric surgical approaches to posterior fossa tumors. Multivariable linear mixed-effects modeling showed that regional perfusion changes were more pronounced in the 6 children who presented with symptomatic obstructive hydrocephalus requiring pre-resection CSF diversion, with hydrocephalus lowering the baseline mean CBF by 20.5 (standard error, 6.27) mL/100g/min. Children diagnosed with cerebellar mutism syndrome (8/44, 18.2%) had significantly higher CBF at follow-up imaging than those who were not (P = .040), but no differences in pre- or postoperative perfusion parameters were seen.

CONCLUSIONS

Multi-inflow time arterial spin-labeling shows promise as a noninvasive tool to evaluate cerebral perfusion in the setting of pediatric obstructive hydrocephalus and demonstrates increased CBF following resolution of cerebellar mutism syndrome.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

A scoping review to identify and describe the characteristics of theories, models and frameworks of health research partnerships

Background

Engaging users of health research, namely knowledge users, as partners in the research process may to lead to evidence that is more relevant to the users. This may optimize the uptake of evidence in healthcare practice, resulting in improved health outcomes or more efficient healthcare systems. However, barriers to involving knowledge users in the research process exist. Theories, models and frameworks may help guide the process of involving knowledge users and address barriers to engaging with knowledge users in research; however, there is little evidence identifying or describing the theories, models and frameworks of health research partnerships.

Objectives

Identify and describe theories, models and frameworks of health research partnerships. Report on concepts of knowledge user engagement represented in identified theories, models and frameworks.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review. Database (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PCORI) and ancestry and snowball searches were utilized. Included articles were written in English, published between January 2005 and June 2021, specific to health, a research partnership, and referred to a theory, model or framework. No critical appraisal was conducted. We developed a coding framework to extract details related to the publication (e.g. country, year) and theory, model or framework (e.g. intended users, theoretical underpinning, methodology, methods of development, purpose, concepts of knowledge user engagement). One reviewer conducted data extraction. Descriptive statistics and narrative synthesis were utilized to report the results.

Results

We identified 21 874 articles in screening. Thirty-nine models or frameworks were included in data analysis, but no theory. Two models or frameworks (5%) were underpinned by theory. Literature review was the method (n = 11, 28%) most frequently used to develop a model or framework. Guiding or managing a partnership was the most frequently reported purpose of the model/framework (n = 14, 36%). The most represented concept of knowledge user engagement was principles/values (n = 36, 92%).

Conclusions

The models and frameworks identified could be utilized by researchers and knowledge users to inform aspects of a health research partnership, such as guidance or implementation of a partnership. Future research evaluating the quality and applicability of the models and frameworks is necessary to help partners decide which model or framework to implement.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12961-022-00877-4.

Social determinants of health influence disease activity and functional disability in Polyarticular Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDH) greatly influence outcomes during the first year of treatment in rheumatoid arthritis, a disease similar to polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pJIA). We investigated the correlation of community poverty level and other SDH with the persistence of moderate to severe disease activity and functional disability over the first year of treatment in pJIA patients enrolled in the Childhood Arthritis and Rheumatology Research Alliance Registry.

METHODS

In this cohort study, unadjusted and adjusted generalized linear mixed effects models analyzed the effect of community poverty and other SDH on disease activity, using the clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-10, and disability, using the Child Health Assessment Questionnaire, measured at baseline, 6, and 12 months.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred eighty-four patients were identified. High community poverty (≥20% living below the federal poverty level) was associated with increased odds of functional disability (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.28-2.60) but was not statistically significant after adjustment (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 0.81-1.86) and was not associated with increased disease activity. Non-white race/ethnicity was associated with higher disease activity (aOR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.41-4.36). Lower self-reported household income was associated with higher disease activity and persistent functional disability. Public insurance (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.06-2.29) and low family education (aOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.14-3.12) was associated with persistent functional disability.

CONCLUSION

High community poverty level was associated with persistent functional disability in unadjusted analysis but not with persistent moderate to high disease activity. Race/ethnicity and other SDH were associated with persistent disease activity and functional disability.

155 Fracture of Pubic Rami During Hip Fracture Fixation - a Rare Case of Traction Table Related Injury

Background

Traction tables form the mainstay of closed reduction techniques for lower limb fracture and in particular hip fractures. They offer a versatile solution to continuous traction required in a variety of operations such as closed intramedullary femoral fixation and hip fixation. Counter traction on the table is provided by the perineal post, this has been associated with significant complications such as neuropraxia, erectile dysfunction, cutaneous necrosis, and urethral injuries.

Case presentation

We present a case of an elderly and co-morbid patient who was scheduled to undergo a hip fracture fixation using an intramedullary nail. Unfortunately, this was delayed by 3 weeks as the patient was unfit to undergo this procedure. She was placed onto the traction table and intra-operatively sustained a superior and inferior pubic rami fracture while attempting reduction on the traction table.

Conclusions

Closed reduction techniques using traction tables and perineal posts are not without morbidity. Risk factors such as osteoporosis and delayed fixation should be accounted for when managing this complex and often frail group of patients.

A211 INCIDENCE OF PRIMARY SCLEROSING CHOLANGITIS: A META-ANALYSIS OF POPULATION-BASED STUDIES

Background

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic liver disease associated with significant morbidity, mortality and healthcare utilization. Understanding the incidence of PSC is important in defining the burden of disease and planning for allocation of healthcare resources.

Aims

To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based studies of the incidence of PSC and to assess temporal trends of incidence overtime.

Methods

Medline and Embase (from inception to May 10, 2021) were systematically searched to identify studies via the following inclusion criteria: 1) original articles, 2) population-based study of defined geographic area, 3) reported the incidence of PSC or provided data to calculate the incidence of PSC. Studies that assessed specific populations (e.g., pediatric-only, IBD-only) or reported less than 1 year of data were excluded. Abstracts and full texts were reviewed for inclusion and data was extracted independently in duplicate by two individuals (JC, AM). Meta-analyses were performed to calculate overall and country-specific incidence rates (per 100,000 persons) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Meta-regression calculated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) of PSC incidence rates overtime.

Results

The initial search returned 3,958 abstracts. After duplicates were removed, abstracts (3,443) were screened, and full texts were reviewed (317), 17 studies met the criteria for inclusion and underwent data extraction. Meta-analysis included 6 studies with annual data contributing to the calculation of AAPC. Studies originated from 10 countries from North America, Europe, and Oceania; however, no population-based studies were published in Asia, Africa, or Latin America (Figure 1). Overall, the incidence rates of PSC was 0.82 per 100,000 (95% CI: 0.62, 1.02) (Figure 1). Incidence rates of PSC were significantly increasing overtime (AAPC: 4.56%; 95% CI: 0.45, 8.68).

Conclusions

The incidence of PSC is low at 0.82 per 100,000 but has been significantly increasing over time. Future studies on the incidence of PSC should be directed at Asia, Africa of Latin America to assess the global epidemiology of PSC.

Figure 1: Pooled incidence rate estimates of PSC per 100,000 person-years at risk.

Funding Agencies

None

Outcomes of trans-catheter versus surgical aortic valve replacement for patients with classic low-flow low-gradient aortic stenosis

Background

Classical low-flow low-gradient aortic stenosis (cLFLG-AS) is frequently encountered within clinical practice [1], and is often associated with high mortality [2]. Whilst aortic valve replacement can improve outcomes, there is a lack of real-world data guiding the decision between trans-catheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in this specific patient cohort.

Purpose

To compare outcomes between TAVI and SAVR in patients with cLFLG-AS.

Methods

cLFLG-AS was defined by an aortic valve area &lt;1cm2, mean gradient &lt;40mmHg or peak velocity &lt;4m/s and left ventricular ejection fraction &lt;50%. All patients who met cLFLG-AS criteria who underwent TAVI or SAVR at our tertiary referral centre between 2015 and 2020 were included. Inverse probability weighting was used to adjust for differences in baseline characteristics and the non-random assignment of treatment modalities. The primary end-point was all-cause mortality. Secondary end-points were procedure-related permanent pacemaker implantation, renal replacement therapy (RRT) and stroke.

Results

322 patients were included (220 TAVI and 102 SAVR). Baseline characteristics were: male sex 70%, mean gradient 30mmHg (23–35), aortic valve area 0.8cm2 (0.6–0.9). Patients undergoing TAVI were older than the SAVR group (81.3±8.5 vs 70.6±11.1 years, p&lt;0.0001) with higher Logistic Euroscore (19.3 (11.8–32.3) vs 7.1 (3.7–14.1), p&lt;0.0001) (figure 1).

At median follow-up of 2.7 years (1.5–4.1), 99 patients had died; 70 (31.8%) had TAVI and 29 (28.4%) had SAVR. Both unweighted and weighted Kaplan-Meier curve analysis was performed; there was similar survival between SAVR and TAVI (log rank test 0=0.27 and p=0.4 respectively) (figure 2).

Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality with SAVR was 0.78 unweighted (95% CI 0.5–1.21; p=0.27) and 0.66 weighted (95% CI 0.26–1.64; p=0.37).

In terms of contributory procedural factors, concomitant multiple valve intervention in the SAVR group independently affected mortality (HR 5.47, 95% CI 2.52–11.51, p&lt;0.001).

There was no difference in permanent pacemaker insertion or stroke across the two groups, but rates of RRT were higher in SAVR cohort (13.7% vs 0%, p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Despite the TAVI cohort being both older and at higher risk, there was no observed difference in mortality between TAVI and SAVR in the mid-term. Deciding upon intervention choice can therefore be based upon criteria other than the specific presence of a classic low-flow low-gradient state.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Clinical training research fellowship from the British Heart Foundation Baseline characteristics by treatmentKaplan-Meier curves for TAVI vs SAVR

46 Primary Care Practitioners Have A High Level of Satisfaction with The Current Breast Referral Pathway but The Majority Would Support A Change to Patient Self-Referral

Aim

Currently, patients must consult with a primary care practitioner (PCP) prior to being referred to secondary care breast services. A change to patient self-referral would arguably reduce primary care workload, improve access for patients, and allow breast units to allocate resources more appropriately; no data currently supports this. This study aims to explore PCP's views on breast referral, evaluate the community breast workload, and to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on referral rates.

Method

An electronic survey was designed on SurveyMonkey.com which aimed to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. The weblink to the survey was sent out via two electronic newsletters. Participants were asked: their role and gender, their level of confidence surrounding breast care, details surrounding their breast workload, how they felt COVID-19 had affected their referral rates, their level of satisfaction with the current pathway, and their opinions on a potential change to patient self-referral.

Results

79 responses were received. PCPs estimated that 7.0% (median) of their total consultations were regarding a breast-related issue and that COVID-19 had not had a significant impact on the rate of referral to breast units (P = 0.75). 84.8% of PCPs were satisfied with the current referral pathway. Whilst 74.5% felt a change to patient self-referral would benefit patients and primary care services, their free text comments highlighted some of their reservations.

Conclusions

PCPs have a high level of satisfaction with the current breast referral pathway, but the majority would be open to a change to patient self-referral to specialist breast units.

An evaluation of influenza vaccine uptake in UK medical students

BACKGROUND

The annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all front-line healthcare workers in the UK and is a crucial way of reducing mortality for vulnerable patient groups. However, to date the UK government has never explicitly monitored influenza vaccine uptake in medical students. This is important to ascertain, as students regularly move between clinical areas and are both a perfect vector for the spread of influenza and at an increased risk of contracting influenza themselves.

AIMS

This service evaluation was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of an influenza vaccination programme in one UK medical school and make recommendations to increase vaccination rates in the future.

METHODS

This service evaluation collected data about medical student uptake of influenza vaccination in one UK medical school. Two hundred and fifty-one students at different course stages completed questionnaires, answering questions on vaccination status and Likert-scale 'belief' questions to assess the subjective reasons behind vaccine refusal.

RESULTS

There was a substantial difference between year group cohorts (~20%), with significantly higher vaccination rates in the preclinical year group. Two significant negative predictors of vaccination were found (P < 0.001), related to scepticism over the effectiveness of the vaccine and lack of convenient access to the vaccination. Results indicated that integrating information about the influenza vaccine into the curriculum would reduce lack of knowledge over the efficacy of the vaccine. The centralization of vaccination programmes at mandatory university-based learning events would mitigate against the problem of diversity of vaccination locations and lack of central accountability.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this service evaluation provide significant predictors of vaccination status for medical students and potential occupational health interventions to improve vaccine uptake in this group.

Comparison of the prognostic value of stress and rest pulmonary transit time estimation using myocardial perfusion CMR

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Clinical Research Training Fellowship

Background

Pulmonary transit time (PTT) is a quantitative biomarker of cardiopulmonary status. Rest PTT was previously shown to predict outcomes in specific disease models, but clinical adoption is hindered but challenges in data acquisition. Whether evaluation of PTT during stress encodes incremental prognostic information has not been previously investigated as scale.

Objectives

To compare the prognostic value of stress and rest PTT derived from a fully automated, in-line method of estimation using perfusion CMR, in a large patient cohort.

Methods

A retrospective two-center study of patients referred clinically for adenosine stress myocardial perfusion assessment using CMR. Analysis of right and left ventricular cavity arterial input function curves from first pass perfusion was performed automatically, allowing the in-line estimation of both rest and stress PTT. Association with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was evaluated. MACE was defined as a composite outcome of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure admission and ventricular tachycardia or appropriate ICD treatment (including ICD shock and/or anti-tachycardia pacing).

Results

985 patients (67% male, median age 62 years (IQR 52,71)) were included, with median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 62% (IQR 54-69). Median stress PTT was shorter than rest PTT 6.2 (IQR 5.1, 7.7) seconds versus 7.7 (IQR, 6.4, 9.2) seconds. Stress and rest PTT were highly correlated (r = 0.69; p &lt; 0.001). Stress PTT also correlated with LVEF (r=-0.37), stress MBF (r=-0.31), LVEDVi (r = 0.24), LA area index (r = 0.32) (p &lt; 0.001 for all). Over a median follow-up period of 28.6 (IQR, 22.6 35,7) months, MACE occurred in 61 (6.2%) patients. After adjusting for prognostic factors, both rest and stress PTT, independently predicted MACE, but not all-cause mortality. For every 1xSD (2.39s) increase in rest PTT the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for MACE was 1.43 (95% CI 1.10-1.85, p = 0.007). The hazard ratio for one standard deviation (2.64s) increase in stress PTT was 1.34 (95% CI 1.048-1.723; p = 0.020) after adjusting for age, LVEF, hypertension, diabetes, sex and presence of LGE

Conclusions

In this 2-center study of 985 patients, we deploy a fully automated method of PTT estimation using perfusion mapping with CMR and show that both stress and rest PTT are independently associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes. In this patient cohort, there is no clear incremental prognostic value of stress PTT, over its evaluation during rest.

Figure 1. Stress and Rest Pulmonary Transit Time estimation using myocardial perfusion CMR

Figure 2. Event-free survival curves for major adverse cardiovascular events (Heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction, stroke and ventricular tachycardia/ICD treatment) according to mean rest PTT (8.05seconds) and mean stress PTT (6.7seconds). Log-rank for both p &lt; 0.05

Higher consumption of red and processed meat is associated with adverse cardiovascular magnetic resonance morpho-functional phenotypes: A study of 19,408 UK Biobank participants

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Clinical Research Training Fellowship No. FS/17/81/33318 European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 825903 (euCanSHare project).

Background

Multiple epidemiological studies link greater red and processed meat consumption with poorer cardiovascular outcomes. However, the impact of these exposures on directly measured cardiovascular phenotypes has not been examined in large cohorts. Limited existing studies suggest that the observed associations may be mediated by cardiometabolic diseases and/or novel mechanisms acting via the heart-gut axes. However, few studies systematically examine potential confounding and mediating mechanisms.

Purpose

We assessed, in the UK Biobank, the association between meat intake and cardiovascular structure and function incorporating a comprehensive range of confounders and mediators.

Methods

We studied 19,408 participants with cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) data. We determined average daily red and processed meat intake using food frequency questionnaires. We used oily fish as a comparator linked to favourable cardiac health. We considered conventional CMR measures (ventricular volumes, left ventricular mass, ejection fraction, stroke volume), novel CMR radiomics features (shape, texture), and arterial stiffness metrics (arterial stiffness index, aortic distensibility). Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate associations between meat/fish intake and cardiovascular phenotypes, adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, educational level, smoking, alcohol intake, and exercise. In separate models, we investigated the mediating role of cardiometabolic morbidities.

Results

Higher intake of red and processed meat was associated with an adverse overall pattern of right and left ventricular remodelling, poorer cardiac function, and higher arterial stiffness. Conversely, higher oily fish intake was associated with a healthy cardiovascular phenotype (better ventricular function, greater arterial compliance). Radiomics analysis showed association of the different dietary habits with unique overall geometry of the ventricles and myocardial texture. These associations were partially mediated by cardiometabolic morbidities.

Conclusions

Higher red and processed meat consumption is associated with adverse cardiovascular phenotypes. These relationships are not fully explained by mediation through cardiometabolic morbidities suggesting importance of alternative disease pathways. Understanding these potential novel disease mechanisms is important for optimising cardiovascular disease prevention strategies.

Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in COVID-19: A New York Metropolitan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with hypercoagulability. We sought to evaluate the demographic and clinical characteristics of cerebral venous thrombosis among patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at 6 tertiary care centers in the New York City metropolitan area.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study of 13,500 consecutive patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized between March 1 and May 30, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 13,500 patients with COVID-19, twelve had imaging-proved cerebral venous thrombosis with an incidence of 8.8 per 10,000 during 3 months, which is considerably higher than the reported incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis in the general population of 5 per million annually. There was a male preponderance (8 men, 4 women) and an average age of 49 years (95% CI, 36-62 years; range, 17-95 years). Only 1 patient (8%) had a history of thromboembolic disease. Neurologic symptoms secondary to cerebral venous thrombosis occurred within 24 hours of the onset of the respiratory and constitutional symptoms in 58% of cases, and 75% had venous infarction, hemorrhage, or both on brain imaging. Management consisted of anticoagulation, endovascular thrombectomy, and surgical hematoma evacuation. The mortality rate was 25%.

CONCLUSIONS

Early evidence suggests a higher-than-expected frequency of cerebral venous thrombosis among patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Cerebral venous thrombosis should be included in the differential diagnosis of neurologic syndromes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

A123 DEFINING CROHN’S DISEASE STRICTURES USING INTESTINAL ULTRASOUND COMPARED TO HISTOPATHOLOGY

Background

Fibrostenotic Crohn’s Disease (CD) is a challenging phenotype often leading to surgical resection. Diagnostic imaging is an invaluable tool to diagnose CD strictures. MRE (Magnetic Resonance Enterography) is the most widely used modality for evaluating strictures, but is limited by access and cost. The current definition of strictures is based only on MRE or CT (computed tomography). Strictures are defined as increased bowel wall thickness (BWT), narrowed luminal apposition, and pre-stenotic dilation &gt; 3cm according to CONSTRICT MR/CT expert consensus criteria. However, this definition has not been studied in intestinal US (IUS). IUS is a cost-effective, easily repeatable, and well-tolerated tool shown to have equal accuracy to MRE in diagnosing and monitoring CD.

Aims

The objective of this study was to assess the utility of identifying strictures with IUS using CONSTRICT definition.

Methods

In this retrospective pilot study, 30 of 80 CD patients who underwent small bowel resection (gold standard for stricture diagnosis) between 2015–2019 with IUS within 6 months prior to surgery were randomly identified for chart review. IUS was performed in a fasted state without oral contrast. Data extracted included confirmed stricture on resection specimens defined as having fibrosis and prestenotic dilation. Fistulizing disease was excluded. Student’s t-tests, sensitivities, specificities, positive (PNV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated for IUS in detecting strictures.

Results

Of the 30 CD patients evaluated, 20 patients had fibrostenosis on pathology and IUS reports. Only 40% (8/20) met CONSTRICT criteria for stricture diagnosis on IUS, despite having a stricture on pathology. All patients had elevated BWT and luminal narrowing, but 60% (12/20) did not have prestenotic dilation &gt; 3cm. Mean dilation was 2.9 cm (SD 1.38) and was significantly different from the mean stricture diameter of 1.3cm (SD 0.59 cm, p=0.0001, 95% CI: 0.9–2.2). Mean BWT was 8.7 mm (SD: 2.5, range 5–15) where normal is &lt; 3mm, and mean luminal apposition was 2.3 mm (SD 1.2, range 0.2–5.8mm). IUS has a sensitivity of 95.2% (95% CI: 76.2 - 99.9%), specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 29.9 - 92.5%), PPV of 87.0% (95% CI: 72.5–94.4), and NPV of 85.7% (95% CI 45.6–97.7%) in detecting strictures when compared to gold standard.

Conclusions

CONSTRICT criteria for diagnosing fibrostenotic CD on CT/MR may not be applicable to IUS. In this study, only 40% of patients met criteria despite having histologic confirmed strictures. Thus, perhaps additional criteria of stricture diameter &lt; 50% of prestenotic dilation size is most appropriate for IUS. This pilot study provides the initial data to delineate an IUS stricture definition for future validation and to inform both clinical practice and trial design.

Funding Agencies

None

Assessing automated CMR contouring algorithms using systematic contour quality scoring analysis

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): SmartHeart EPSRC programme grant (www.nihr.ac.uk), London Medical Imaging and AI Centre for Value-Based Healthcare

Background

Quality measures for machine learning algorithms include clinical measures such as end-diastolic (ED) and end-systolic (ES) volume, volumetric overlaps such as Dice similarity coefficient and surface distances such as Hausdorff distance. These measures capture differences between manually drawn and automated contours but fail to capture the trust of a clinician to an automatically generated contour.

Purpose

We propose to directly capture clinicians’ trust in a systematic way. We display manual and automated contours sequentially in random order and ask the clinicians to score the contour quality. We then perform statistical analysis for both sources of contours and stratify results based on contour type.

Data

The data selected for this experiment came from the National Health Center Singapore. It constitutes CMR scans from 313 patients with diverse pathologies including: healthy, dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), hypertension (HTN), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), ischemic heart disease (IHD), left ventricular non-compaction (LVNC), and myocarditis. Each study contains a short axis (SAX) stack, with ED and ES phases manually annotated. Automated contours are generated for each SAX image for which manual annotation is available. For this, a machine learning algorithm trained at Circle Cardiovascular Imaging Inc. is applied and the resulting predictions are saved to be displayed in the contour quality scoring (CQS) application.

Methods: The CQS application displays manual and automated contours in a random order and presents the user an option to assign a contour quality score

1: Unacceptable, 2: Bad, 3: Fair, 4: Good. The UK Biobank standard operating procedure is used for assessing the quality of the contoured images. Quality scores are assigned based on how the contour affects clinical outcomes. However, as images are presented independent of spatiotemporal context, contour quality is assessed based on how well the area of the delineated structure is approximated. Consequently, small contours and small deviations are rarely assigned a quality score of less than 2, as they are not clinically relevant. Special attention is given to the RV-endo contours as often, mostly in basal images, two separate contours appear. In such cases, a score of 3 is given if the two disjoint contours sufficiently encompass the underlying anatomy; otherwise they are scored as 2 or 1.

Results

A total of 50991 quality scores (24208 manual and 26783 automated) are generated by five expert raters. The mean score for all manual and automated contours are 3.77 ± 0.48 and 3.77 ± 0.52, respectively. The breakdown of mean quality scores by contour type is included in Fig. 1a while the distribution of quality scores for various raters are shown in Fig. 1b.

Conclusion

We proposed a method of comparing the quality of manual versus automated contouring methods. Results suggest similar statistics in quality scores for both sources of contours.

Abstract Figure 1

Prothrombin complex concentrate vs. fresh frozen plasma in adult patients undergoing heart surgery - a pilot randomised controlled trial (PROPHESY trial)

There is equipoise regarding the use of prothrombin complex concentrate vs. fresh frozen plasma in bleeding patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We performed a pilot randomised controlled trial to determine the recruitment rate for a large trial, comparing the impact of prothrombin complex concentrate vs. fresh frozen plasma on haemostasis (1 h and 24 h post-intervention), and assessing safety. Adult patients who developed bleeding within 24 h of cardiac surgery that required coagulation factor replacement were randomly allocated to receive prothrombin complex concentrate (15 IU.kg^-1 based on factor IX) or fresh frozen plasma (15 ml.kg^-1 ). If bleeding continued after the first administration of prothrombin complex concentrate or fresh frozen plasma administration, standard care was administered. From February 2019 to October 2019, 180 patients were screened, of which 134 (74.4% (95%CI 67-81%)) consented, 59 bled excessively and 50 were randomly allocated; 25 in each arm, recruitment rate 35% (95%CI 27-44%). There were 23 trial protocol deviations, 137 adverse events (75 prothrombin complex concentrate vs. 62 fresh frozen plasma) and 18 serious adverse events (5 prothrombin complex concentrate vs. 13 fresh frozen plasma). There was no increase in thromboembolic events with prothrombin complex concentrate. No patient withdrew from the study, four were lost to follow-up and two died. At 1 h after administration of the intervention there was a significant increase in fibrinogen, Factor V, Factor XII, Factor XIII, α₂ -antiplasmin and antithrombin levels in the fresh frozen plasma arm, while Factor II and Factor X were significantly higher in the prothrombin complex concentrate group. At 24 h, there were no significant differences in clotting factor levels. We conclude that recruitment to a larger study is feasible. Haemostatic tests have provided useful insight into the haemostatic changes following prothrombin complex concentrate or fresh frozen plasma administration. A definitive trial is needed to ascertain the benefits and safety for each.

Variation in the achievement of HbA1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets in type 2 diabetes in general practice and characteristics associated with risk factor control

AIMS

To identify population, general practitioner, and practice characteristics associated with the achievement of HbA_1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets, and to describe variation in the achievement of risk factor control.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 9342 people with type 2 diabetes, 281 general practitioners and 77 general practices in Norway. Missing values (7.4%) were imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. We used three-level logistic regression with the achievement of HbA_1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets as dependent variables, and factors related to population, general practitioners, and practices as independent variables.

RESULTS

Treatment targets were achieved for HbA_1c in 64%, blood pressure in 50%, and LDL cholesterol in 52% of people with type 2 diabetes, and 17% met all three targets. There was substantial heterogeneity in target achievement among general practitioners and among practices; the estimated proportion of a GPs diabetes population at target was 55-73% (10-90 percentiles) for HbA_1c , 36-63% for blood pressure, and 47-57% for LDL cholesterol targets. The models explained 11%, 5% and 14%, respectively, of the total variation in the achievement of HbA_1c , blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets. Use among general practitioners of a structured diabetes form was associated with 23% higher odds of achieving the HbA_1c target (odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.47) and 17% higher odds of achieving the LDL cholesterol target (odds ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.01-1.35).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical diabetes management is difficult, and few people meet all three risk factor control targets. The proportion of people reaching target varied among general practitioners and practices. Several population, general practitioner and practice characteristics only explained a small part of the total variation. The use of a structured diabetes form is recommended.

A new mechanism for void-cascade interaction from nondestructive depth-resolved atomic-scale measurements of ion irradiation-induced defects in Fe

The nondestructive investigation of single vacancies and vacancy clusters in ion-irradiated samples requires a depth-resolved probe with atomic sensitivity to defects. The recent development of short-pulsed positron beams provides such a probe. Here, we combine depth-resolved Doppler broadening and positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopies to identify vacancy clusters in ion-irradiated Fe and measure their density as a function of depth. Despite large concentrations of dislocations and voids in the pristine samples, positron annihilation measurements uncovered the structure of vacancy clusters and the change in their size and density with irradiation dose. When combined with transmission electron microscopy measurements, the study demonstrates an association between the increase in the density of small vacancy clusters with irradiation and a remarkable reduction in the size of large voids. This, previously unknown, mechanism for the interaction of cascade damage with voids in ion-irradiated materials is a consequence of the high porosity of the initial microstructure.

SAT0503 SERIOUS INFECTION RISK IN PEDIATRIC PATIENTS WITH LOW IMMUNOGLOBULIN LEVELS FOLLOWING RITUXIMAB TREATMENT FOR GRANULOMATOSIS WITH POLYANGIITIS (GPA) OR MICROSCOPIC POLYANGIITIS (MPA)

Background:

Low immunoglobulin (Ig) levels can occur after rituximab treatment, but the clinical significance is not completely understood. Not all patients (pts) who develop low Ig levels after rituximab are at an increased risk of serious infection (SI), but factors such as pre-existing low Ig levels, prior biologic therapies, history of SI and other disease and age-related factors may increase the risk.

Objectives:

To assess the risk of SI in pediatric pts with prolonged low IgG or IgM serum concentrations following rituximab treatment for GPA or MPA in a global clinical trial.

Methods:

In the Phase 2a PePRS study (WA25615), pts aged ≥ 2 to ≤ 18 yrs with GPA or MPA received 4 weekly intravenous rituximab infusions of 375 mg/m2body surface area and concomitant oral glucocorticoid taper. After 6 months, pts could receive further rituximab and/or other immunosuppressants at the investigator’s discretion during a minimum 12-month follow-up phase. Pts with IgG/IgM levels below age-specific reference ranges at baseline were excluded. Ig levels were measured every 4-12 wks. SI occurrence was assessed during/after low IgG or IgM. Prolonged low Ig was defined as IgG or IgM levels < lower limit of normal (LLN) reference range for age for a ≥ 4-month period.

Results:

All 25 pts completed 4 weekly rituximab infusions and the 6-month Remission Induction Phase; 24/25 pts completed ≥ 18 months of follow-up. 17 pts received additional rituximab treatment on or after Month 6. 11 pts received concomitant immunosuppressants (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil) during the study. All pts had a decrease in IgG and IgM mostly after the first rituximab infusion. There was no consistent trend in IgG or IgM levels over time and no clear relationship between low IgG or IgM levels and the number of follow-up rituximab treatments. 18 pts (72%) had prolonged low IgG ≥ 4 months, of whom 5 had IgG levels < LLN at screening and/or baseline; in 7 pts, IgG levels returned to within normal range by study end. During or after prolonged low IgG, 6/18 pts experienced a total of 7 SIs. Three pts received treatment with intravenous Ig. 19 pts (76%) had prolonged low IgM, of whom 5 had IgM levels < LLN at screening and/or baseline. During or after prolonged low IgM levels, 6/19 pts experienced a total of 8 SIs. There were no deaths or study discontinuation due to SI. All pts with prolonged low IgG or IgM had past and/or concomitant treatment with steroids and/or immunosuppressants as potential contributory factors. Analysis of SI onset in relation to timing of low Ig was limited due to protocol-defined time points for Ig assessments.

Conclusion:

In pediatric pts with GPA/MPA treated with rituximab, there was no consistent pattern in IgG or IgM levels over time. The majority of pts with prolonged low IgG or IgM did not experience any SIs; no increase in the number of SIs was observed over time or with multiple rituximab treatments. While no firm conclusions can be made on a possible relationship between prolonged low IgG or IgM and risk of SI following rituximab due to study limitations (low pt numbers, lack of placebo comparator), these observations are consistent with the known rituximab safety profile in adult pts with GPA/MPA.

Disclosure of Interests:

Simone Melega Shareholder of: F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Employee of: F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Paul Brogan Grant/research support from: Roche, Novartis, SOBI, Chemocentryx, Novimmune, Consultant of: Roche, SOBI, UCB, Novartis, Speakers bureau: Roche, SOBI, UCB, Novartis, Gavin Cleary Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Aimee Hersh: None declared, Ozgur Kasapcopur: None declared, Satyapal Rangaraj: None declared, Rae Yeung Consultant of: AbbVie, Novartis, Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Novartis, Andrew Zeft: None declared, Jennifer Cooper Employee of: Genentech, Inc., Pooneh Pordeli Shareholder of: Roche, Employee of: Roche, Petra Kirchner Shareholder of: Roche, Employee of: Roche, Patricia Lehane Shareholder of: Roche, Employee of: Roche

Examining consent for interventional research in potential deceased organ donors: a narrative review

In the last decade, research in transplant medicine has focused on developing interventions in the management of the deceased organ donor to improve the quality and quantity of transplantable organs. Despite the promise of interventional donor research, there remain debates about the ethics of this research, specifically regarding gaining research consent. Here, we examine the concerns and ambiguities around consent for interventional donor research, which incorporate questions about who should consent for interventional donor research and what people are being asked to consent for. We highlight the US and UK policy responses to these concerns and argue that, whereas guidance in this area has done much to clarify these ambiguities, there is little consideration of the nature, practicalities and context around consent in this area, particularly regarding organ donors and their families. We review wider studies of consent in critical care research and social science studies of consent in medical research, to gain a broader view of consent in this area as a relational and contextual process. We contend a lack of consideration has been given to: what it might mean to consent to interventional donor research; how families, patients and health professionals might experience providing and seeking this consent; who is best placed to have these discussions; and the socio-institutional contexts affecting these processes. Further, empirical research is required to establish an ethical and sensitive model for consent in interventional donor research, ensuring the principles enshrined in research ethics are met and public trust in organ donation is maintained.

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Proceedings Paper-Avian Diseases 10th AI Symposium Issue Development and Application of Real-Time PCR Assays for Specific Detection of Contemporary Avian Influenza Virus Subtypes N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9

Previously published NA subtype-specific real-time reverse-transcriptase PCRs (RRT-PCRs) were further validated for the detection of five avian influenza virus (AIV) NA subtypes, namely N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9. Testing of 30 AIV isolates of all nine NA subtypes informed the assay assessments, with the N5 and N9 RRT-PCRs retained as the original published assays while the N7 and N8 assays were modified in the primer-probe sequences to optimize detection of current threats. The preferred N6 RRT-PCR was either the original or the modified variant, depending on the specific H5N6 lineage. Clinical specimen (n = 137) testing revealed the ability of selected N5, N6, and N8 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) infections due to H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8 subtypes, respectively, all originating from European poultry and wild bird cases during 2016-2018. Similar testing (n = 32 clinical specimens) also showed the ability of N7 and N9 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect European H7N7 HPAIV and China-origin H7N9 low pathogenicity AIV infections, respectively.

Quality and Costs in a Residential Education Facility for People with Dual Sensory Impairments

The study evaluated the quality and costs of services for 16 young adults with dual sensory impairments and mental retardation before and during their placement at a specialist community-based residential further education facility. The results indicated that, overall, both the quality and costs of services were higher than in previous placements. However, there were wide variations among clients on all the dimensions studied, and there was no overall relationship between the costs and quality of services.

Detection of H3N8 influenza A virus with multiple mammalian-adaptive mutations in a rescued Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup

Avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) in different species of seals display a spectrum of pathogenicity, from sub-clinical infection to mass mortality events. Here we present an investigation of avian IAV infection in a 3- to 4-month-old Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup, rescued from St Michael's Mount, Cornwall in 2017. The pup underwent medical treatment but died after two weeks; post-mortem examination and histology indicated sepsis as the cause of death. IAV NP antigen was detected by immunohistochemistry in the nasal mucosa, and sensitive real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays detected trace amounts of viral RNA within the lower respiratory tract, suggesting that the infection may have been cleared naturally. IAV prevalence among Grey seals may therefore be underestimated. Moreover, contact with humans during the rescue raised concerns about potential zoonotic risk. Nucleotide sequencing revealed the virus to be of subtype H3N8. Combining a GISAID database BLAST search and time-scaled phylogenetic analyses, we inferred that the seal virus originated from an unsampled, locally circulating (in Northern Europe) viruses, likely from wild Anseriformes. From examining the protein alignments, we found several residue changes in the seal virus that did not occur in the bird viruses, including D701N in the PB2 segment, a rare mutation, and a hallmark of mammalian adaptation of bird viruses. IAVs of H3N8 subtype have been noted for their particular ability to cross the species barrier and cause productive infections, including historical records suggesting that they may have caused the 1889 pandemic. Therefore, infections such as the one we report here may be of interest to pandemic surveillance and risk and help us better understand the determinants and drivers of mammalian adaptation in influenza.

Evaluation of a new sink design incorporating ozonated water

BACKGROUND

Novel sink and U-trap designs have been developed to reduce contamination by users and diminish biofilm. Real-world experience with new sink designs and adjunctive measures such as ozone has been limited.

AIMS

To assess a new sink design for splashback and to evaluate the ozonated water feature for reduction of microbial bioburden.

METHODS

A portable sink unit was created that permitted the application of white absorbent paper to plexiglass shields beside and behind the sink. Participants, wearing painter coveralls and masks, spread 30 mL of tempera paint over their hands and washed for 20 s with neutral soap. Each participant repeated this five times sequentially, and cumulative results were recorded. Escherichia coli was exposed to ozonated water from the sink unit and to regular tap water and evaluated for microbial survival.

FINDINGS

Compared with a conventional sink, the SmartFLO3 sink had less environmental contamination within the sink, surrounding area and splashback on to the participant. Despite modifications to enhance ozone generation, readings of reactive oxygen species did not exceed 0.3 ppm, and no significant bactericidal effect was demonstrated.

CONCLUSIONS

The SmartFLO3 sink reduces splashback and has the potential to reduce pathogen transmission from sinks. At the low levels of ozone generated in this study, no clear bacterial killing effect was observed compared with tap water alone.

Determination of Ochratoxin A in Currants, Raisins, Sultanas, Mixed Dried Fruit, and Dried Figs by Immunoaffinity Column Cleanup with Liquid Chromatography: Interlaboratory Study

An interlaboratory study was performed on behalf of the Food Standards Agency to evaluate the effectiveness of an affinity column cleanup liquid chromatographic (LC) method for the determination of ochratoxin A in a variety of dried fruit at European regulatory limits. To ensure homogeneity before analysis, laboratory samples are normally slurried with water in the ratio of 5 parts fruit to 4 parts water, and test materials in this form were used in the study. The test portion was extracted with acidified methanol. The extract was filtered, diluted with phosphate-buffered saline, and applied to an affinity column. The column was washed and ochratoxin A was eluted with methanol. Ochratoxin A was quantified by reversed-phase LC. The use of post-column pH shift to enhance the fluorescence of ochratoxin A by the addition of 1.1M ammonia solution to the column eluant is optional. Determination was by fluorescence. Currants, sultanas, raisins, figs, and mixed fruit (comprising dried pineapple, papaya, sultanas, prunes, dates, and banana chips), both naturally contaminated and blank (very low level), were sent to 24 collaborators in 7 European countries. Participants were asked to spike test portions of all test samples at a level equivalent to 5 ng/g ochra toxin A. Average recoveries ranged from 69 to 74%. Based on results for 5 naturally contaminated test samples (blind duplicates) the relative standard deviation for repeatability (RSDr) ranged from 4.9 to 8.7%, and the relative standard deviation for reproducibility (RSDR)rangedfrom14to28%. The method showed acceptable within-and be-tween-laboratory precision for all 5 matrixes, as evidenced by HORRAT values &lt;1.3.

First measurement of neutrino oscillation parameters using neutrinos and antineutrinos by NOvA

The NOvA experiment has seen a 4.4σ signal of ν[over ¯]_{e} appearance in a 2 GeV ν[over ¯]_{μ} beam at a distance of 810 km. Using 12.33×10^{20} protons on target delivered to the Fermilab NuMI neutrino beamline, the experiment recorded 27 ν[over ¯]_{μ}→ν[over ¯]_{e} candidates with a background of 10.3 and 102 ν[over ¯]_{μ}→ν[over ¯]_{μ} candidates. This new antineutrino data are combined with neutrino data to measure the parameters |Δm_{32}^{2}|=2.48_{-0.06}^{+0.11}×10^{-3}  eV^{2}/c^{4} and sin^{2}θ_{23} in the ranges from (0.53-0.60) and (0.45-0.48) in the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. The data exclude most values near δ_{CP}=π/2 for the inverted mass hierarchy by more than 3σ and favor the normal neutrino mass hierarchy by 1.9σ and θ_{23} values in the upper octant by 1.6σ.

High Performance Bi-2212 Round Wires Made with Recent Powders

Multifilamentary Bi₂Sr₂CaCu₂O_x (Bi-2212) wire made by the powder-in-tube technique is the only high temperature superconductor made in the round shape preferred by magnet builders. The critical current density (J _C ) of Bi-2212 round wire was improved significantly by the development of overpressure heat treatment in the past few years. Bi-2212 wire is commercially available in multiple architectures and kilometer-long pieces and a very promising conductor for very high field NMR and accelerator magnets. We studied the effects of precursor powder and heat treatment conditions on the superconducting properties and microstructure of recent Bi-2212 wires. Short samples of recent wire with optimized overpressure processing showed J _C (4.2 K, 15 T) = 6640 A/mm² and J _C (4.2 K, 30 T) = 4670 A/mm², which correspond to engineering critical current densities J _E (4.2 K, 15 T) = 1320 A/mm² and J _E (4.2 K, 30 T) = 930 A/mm².

Advance decisions to refuse treatment and suicidal behaviour in emergency care: 'it's very much a step into the unknown'

BACKGROUND

Complex challenges may arise when patients present to emergency services with an advance decision to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour.

AIMS

To investigate the use of advance decisions to refuse treatment in the context of suicidal behaviour from the perspective of clinicians and people with lived experience of self-harm and/or psychiatric services.

METHOD

Forty-one participants aged 18 or over from hospital services (emergency departments, liaison psychiatry and ambulance services) and groups of individuals with experience of psychiatric services and/or self-harm were recruited to six focus groups in a multisite study in England. Data were collected in 2016 using a structured topic guide and included a fictional vignette. They were analysed using thematic framework analysis.

RESULTS

Advance decisions to refuse treatment for suicidal behaviour were contentious across groups. Three main themes emerged from the data: (a) they may enhance patient autonomy and aid clarity in acute emergencies, but also create legal and ethical uncertainty over treatment following self-harm; (b) they are anxiety provoking for clinicians; and (c) in practice, there are challenges in validation (for example, validating the patient's mental capacity at the time of writing), time constraints and significant legal/ethical complexities.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential for patients to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour in a legal document was challenging and anxiety provoking for participants. Clinicians should act with caution given the potential for recovery and fluctuations in suicidal ideation. Currently, advance decisions to refuse treatment have questionable use in the context of suicidal behaviour given the challenges in validation. Discussion and further patient research are needed in this area.

DECLARATION OF INTEREST

D.G., K.H. and N.K. are members of the Department of Health's (England) National Suicide Prevention Advisory Group. N.K. chaired the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development group for the longer-term management of self-harm and the NICE Topic Expert Group (which developed the quality standards for self-harm services). He is currently chair of the updated NICE guideline for Depression. K.H. and D.G. are NIHR Senior Investigators. K.H. is also supported by the Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust and N.K. by the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust.

Management of patients with an advance decision and suicidal behaviour: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The use of advance care planning and advance decisions for psychiatric care is growing. However, there is limited guidance on clinical management when a patient presents with suicidal behaviour and an advance decision and no systematic reviews of the extant literature.

OBJECTIVES

To synthesise existing literature on the management of advance decisions and suicidal behaviour.

DESIGN

A systematic search of seven bibliographic databases was conducted to identify studies relating to advance decisions and suicidal behaviour. Studies on terminal illness or end-of-life care were excluded to focus on the use of advance decisions in the context of suicidal behaviour. A textual synthesis of data was conducted, and themes were identified by using an adapted thematic framework analysis approach.

RESULTS

Overall 634 articles were identified, of which 35 were retained for full text screening. Fifteen relevant articles were identified following screening. Those articles pertained to actual clinical cases or fictional scenarios. Clinical practice and rationale for management decisions varied. Five themes were identified: (1) tension between patient autonomy and protecting a vulnerable person, (2) appropriateness of advance decisions for suicidal behaviour, (3) uncertainty about the application of legislation, (4) the length of time needed to consider all the evidence versus rapid decision-making for treatment and (5) importance of seeking support and sharing decision-making.

CONCLUSIONS

Advance decisions present particular challenges for clinicians when associated with suicidal behaviour. Recommendations for practice and supervision for clinicians may help to reduce the variation in clinical practice.

Perception of Unilateral Lower Extremity Weightbearing during Bilateral Upright Stance

The primary purpose of this study was to describe the error in 61 healthy subjects’ perceptions of weight-bearing at three target levels during bilateral upright stance. The secondary purpose was to describe the effects of age, sex, lower extremity dominance and target weightbearing level on the error in perceptions of weightbearing. Weightbearing was determined while subjects stood on digital scales. They adjusted their weight in an attempt to bear 25, 50, and 75% of their weight through a designated lower extremity. Three trials were allowed at each weightbearing target, and the results were averaged. Each subject's error in perception of weightbearing at each target level was determined by taking the absolute value of the target percent weightbearing minus the mean actual percent weightbearing. The mean errors at the 25, 50, and 75% targets were 7.3, 3.3, and 7.7%, respectively. The magnitude of the error was unrelated to age. An analysis of variance showed that error was not dependent on sex or whether the dominant lower extremity was used for making judgements. The error did differ between target levels. Clinicians cannot assume, based on the findings of this study, that individuals can accurately judge the percent weightbearing they are placing through one of their lower extremities during bilateral upright stance.

Platelet Reactivity In Vitro in Relation to Thromboxane in Healthy Pregnancy

There is substantial evidence of increased platelet reactivity in vivo and in vitro during pregnancy. Previous in vitro studies suggest that platelets from pregnant women show increased sensitivity to agonists, the response to which has a thromboxane dependent component. The aim of this study was to determine whether this is due to increased activity of the thromboxane biosynthetic pathway or to increased platelet sensitivity to the effects of thromboxane. During pregnancy, platelets were more sensitive to the pro-aggregatory effects in vitro of the thromboxane mimetic U46619, in whole blood and in platelet rich plasma, compared to those from non-pregnant controls. The difference in extent of U46619-induced platelet aggregation between groups was abolished in the presence of a high concentration of the specific thromboxane antagonist ICI 192605, but not by prior incubation of blood with aspirin. Platelets from pregnant women were significantly less sensitive to inhibition of arachidonic acid induced activation by the thromboxane synthetase inhibitor dazmegrel, but there was no change in platelet cyclic AMP accumulation under these conditions. Arachidonic acid induced platelet thromboxane B2 production was similar in pregnant and non-pregnant subjects. In conclusion, platelets are more sensitive to the activating effects of thromboxane during pregnancy, but there is no change in the intrinsic reactivity of the thromboxane biosynthetic pathway.

Accuracy of risk scales for predicting repeat self-harm and suicide: a multicentre, population-level cohort study using routine clinical data

BACKGROUND

Risk scales are used widely in the management of patients presenting to hospital following self-harm. However, there is evidence that their diagnostic accuracy in predicting repeat self-harm is limited. Their predictive accuracy in population settings, and in identifying those at highest risk of suicide is not known.

METHOD

We compared the predictive accuracy of the Manchester Self-Harm Rule (MSHR), ReACT Self-Harm Rule (ReACT), SAD PERSONS Scale (SPS) and Modified SAD PERSONS Scale (MSPS) in an unselected sample of patients attending hospital following self-harm. Data on 4000 episodes of self-harm presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from four established monitoring systems in England. Episodes were assigned a risk category for each scale and followed up for 6 months.

RESULTS

The episode-based repeat rate was 28% (1133/4000) and the incidence of suicide was 0.5% (18/3962). The MSHR and ReACT performed with high sensitivity (98% and 94% respectively) and low specificity (15% and 23%). The SPS and the MSPS performed with relatively low sensitivity (24-29% and 9-12% respectively) and high specificity (76-77% and 90%). The area under the curve was 71% for both MSHR and ReACT, 51% for SPS and 49% for MSPS. Differences in predictive accuracy by subgroup were small. The scales were less accurate at predicting suicide than repeat self-harm.

CONCLUSIONS

The scales failed to accurately predict repeat self-harm and suicide. The findings support existing clinical guidance not to use risk classification scales alone to determine treatment or predict future risk.

Adult height, coronary heart disease and stroke: a multi-locus Mendelian randomization meta-analysis

Background: We investigated causal effect of completed growth, measured by adult height, on coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular traits, using instrumental variable (IV) Mendelian randomization meta-analysis.

Methods: We developed an allele score based on 69 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with adult height, identified by the IBCCardioChip, and used it for IV analysis against cardiovascular risk factors and events in 21 studies and 60 028 participants. IV analysis on CHD was supplemented by summary data from 180 height-SNPs from the GIANT consortium and their corresponding CHD estimates derived from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D.

Results: IV estimates from IBCCardioChip and GIANT-CARDIoGRAMplusC4D showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height reduced the odds of CHD by 10% [odds ratios 0.90; 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.78 to 1.03 and 0.85 to 0.95, respectively],which agrees with the estimate from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91 to 0.94). IV analysis revealed no association with stroke (odds ratio 0.97; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.19). IV analysis showed that a 6.5-cm increase in height resulted in lower levels of body mass index (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.001), non high-density (non-HDL) cholesterol (P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (P = 0.042), and systolic blood pressure (P = 0.064) and higher levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 s and forced vital capacity (P < 0.001 for both).

Conclusions: Taller individuals have a lower risk of CHD with potential explanations being that taller people have a better lung function and lower levels of body mass index, cholesterol and blood pressure.

Routine hospital management of self-harm and risk of further self-harm: propensity score analysis using record-based cohort data

BACKGROUND

The care received by people presenting to hospital following self-harm varies and it is unclear how different types of treatment affect risk of further self-harm.

METHOD

Observational cohort data from the Manchester Self-Harm Project, UK, included 16 456 individuals presenting to an Emergency Department with self-harm between 2003 and 2011. Individuals were followed up for 12 months. We also used data from a smaller cohort of individuals presenting to 31 hospitals in England during a 3-month period in 2010/2011, followed up for 6 months. Propensity score (PS) methods were used to address observed confounding. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation.

RESULTS

Following PS stratification, those who received a psychosocial assessment had a lower risk of repeat hospital attendance for self-harm than those who were not assessed [RR 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.95]. The risk was reduced most among people less likely to be assessed. Following PS matching, we found no associations between risks of repeat self-harm and admission to a medical bed, referral to outpatient psychiatry or admission to a psychiatric bed. We did not find a relationship between psychosocial assessment and repeat self-harm in the 31 centre cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the potential value of using novel statistical techniques in large mental health datasets to estimate treatment effects. We found that specialist psychosocial assessment may reduce the risk of repeat self-harm. This type of routine care should be provided for all individuals who present to hospital after self-harm, regardless of perceived risk.