Yellow fever in the Americas: the growing concern about new epidemics

Changing epidemiology of yellow fever virus in Oyo State, Nigeria

Background

Yellow Fever is an acute viral hemorrhagic disease endemic in tropical Africa and Latin America and is transmitted through infected mosquitoes. The earliest outbreak of yellow fever in Nigeria was reported in Lagos in 1864 with subsequent regular outbreaks reported until 1996. A large epidemic of yellow fever occurred in Oyo State in April and May 1987 following an epidemic of sylvatic yellow fever in Eastern Nigeria the previous year. For 21 years, no further confirmed cases were reported until September 2017 following which Nigeria has been responding to successive outbreaks. The renewed onset of yellow fever outbreaks in Nigeria followed a global trend of reports and from other African countries. Yellow Fever disease has no cure, but control is through vaccination and vector control. Eliminating Yellow fever Epidemic (EYE) strategy to improve high-risk countries’ prevention, preparedness, detection, management, and response to yellow fever outbreaks was developed by the WHO in 2017 and launched in Nigeria in April 2018. Yet, poor vaccination coverage continues to be a cause for concern.

Materials and methods

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study that examines the resurgence of Yellow fever cases and outbreaks from 2013 to 2020 in Oyo State, Nigeria. The Yellow Fever data for both surveillance and routine Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) were the focus of the review. Surveillance data were retrieved from the State’s database reported by all 33 LGAs, maintained by the State and supported by the World Health Organization at the Zonal and State levels. The routine EPI data were retrieved from District Health Information Software (DHIS_2). The proportion of LGAs reporting at least one case of suspected yellow fever with a blood specimen and the number of suspected cases reported for each year within the period under review was measured. We also assessed the trend of confirmed cases and the incidence per 100,000 persons. Also, suspected cases of yellow fever were categorized into four age groups and their vaccination status was assessed. The State’s annual administrative routine vaccination coverage for yellow fever vaccine was compared with the number of confirmed cases for each year.

Results

The proportion of LGAs reporting at least a case of suspected yellow fever, with blood samples collected, ranged from 6.1 to 84.9% between 2014 and 2020 while a total of 9 confirmed (8 cases) and probable (1 case) cases of yellow fever were recorded. However, there were no confirmed cases from the year 2013 to 2016, including 2018 but an upward trend of incidence of the disease per 100,000 persons from 0% to 2013 through 2018, to 3.5% in 2019, and then to 5.6% in 2020 was observed. 93 of 240 (39%) suspected yellow fever cases reported during the given period were observed to have received yellow fever vaccine.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the increase in the circulation of the yellow fever virus in the state reiterates the state is at a high risk of yellow fever transmission and underlines the need for viable interventions such as environmental hygiene to rid the environment of the disease vector’s ecological niche and improving routine EPI coverage to provide population immunity.

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term).

METHODS

A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.

RESULTS

Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.

Understanding Asthma and Allergies by the Lens of Biodiversity and Epigenetic Changes

Exposure to different organisms (bacteria, mold, virus, protozoan, helminths, among others) can induce epigenetic changes affecting the modulation of immune responses and consequently increasing the susceptibility to inflammatory diseases. Epigenomic regulatory features are highly affected during embryonic development and are responsible for the expression or repression of different genes associated with cell development and targeting/conducting immune responses. The well-known, "window of opportunity" that includes maternal and post-natal environmental exposures, which include maternal infections, microbiota, diet, drugs, and pollutant exposures are of fundamental importance to immune modulation and these events are almost always accompanied by epigenetic changes. Recently, it has been shown that these alterations could be involved in both risk and protection of allergic diseases through mechanisms, such as DNA methylation and histone modifications, which can enhance Th2 responses and maintain memory Th2 cells or decrease Treg cells differentiation. In addition, epigenetic changes may differ according to the microbial agent involved and may even influence different asthma or allergy phenotypes. In this review, we discuss how exposure to different organisms, including bacteria, viruses, and helminths can lead to epigenetic modulations and how this correlates with allergic diseases considering different genetic backgrounds of several ancestral populations.

Re-Emergence of Yellow Fever in Brazil during 2016-2019: Challenges, Lessons Learned, and Perspectives

Yellow fever (YF) is a re-emerging viral zoonosis caused by the Yellow Fever virus (YFV), affecting humans and non-human primates (NHP). YF is endemic in South America and Africa, being considered a burden for public health worldwide despite the availability of an effective vaccine. Acute infectious disease can progress to severe hemorrhagic conditions and has high rates of morbidity and mortality in endemic countries. In 2016, Brazil started experiencing one of the most significant YF epidemics in its history, with lots of deaths being reported in regions that were previously considered free of the disease. Here, we reviewed the historical aspects of YF in Brazil, the epidemiology of the disease, the challenges that remain in Brazil's public health context, the main lessons learned from the recent outbreaks, and our perspective for facing future YF epidemics.

Viral Emerging Diseases: Challenges in Developing Vaccination Strategies

In the last decades, a number of infectious viruses have emerged from wildlife or re-emerged, generating serious threats to the global health and to the economy worldwide. Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fevers, Lassa fever, Dengue fever, Yellow fever, West Nile fever, Zika, and Chikungunya vector-borne diseases, Swine flu, Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and the recent Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are examples of zoonoses that have spread throughout the globe with such a significant impact on public health that the scientific community has been called for a rapid intervention in preventing and treating emerging infections. Vaccination is probably the most effective tool in helping the immune system to activate protective responses against pathogens, reducing morbidity and mortality, as proven by historical records. Under health emergency conditions, new and alternative approaches in vaccine design and development are imperative for a rapid and massive vaccination coverage, to manage a disease outbreak and curtail the epidemic spread. This review gives an update on the current vaccination strategies for some of the emerging/re-emerging viruses, and discusses challenges and hurdles to overcome for developing efficacious vaccines against future pathogens.

Impact of synthetic and biological immunomodulatory therapy on the duration of 17DD yellow fever vaccine-induced immunity in rheumatoid arthritis

Background

The 17DD-yellow fever (YF) vaccine induces a long-lasting protective immunity, resulting from humoral and cellular immunological memory. The treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARD) may affect pre-existing 17DD-vaccine protective immunity and increase the risk of acquiring YF infection. Our goal was to determine whether DMARD would affect the duration of YF-specific protective immunity in RA patients.

Methods

A total of 122 RA patients, previously immunized with the 17DD-YF vaccine (1–5, 5–9, and ≥ 10 years) and currently under DMARD therapy, were enrolled in the present investigation. Immunomodulatory therapy encompasses the use of conventional synthetic DMARD alone (csDMARD) or combines with biological DMARD (cs+bDMARD). A total of 226 healthy subjects were recruited as a control group (CONT). Neutralizing antibody responses were measured by a plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT), and cellular immunity was evaluated by an in vitro 17DD-YF-specific peripheral blood lymphoproliferative assay.

Results

The data demonstrated that csDMARD therapy did not affect the duration of protective immunity induced by the 17DD-YF vaccine compared to that of CONT, as both presented a significant time-dependent decline at 10 years after vaccination. Conversely, cs+bDMARD therapy induced a premature depletion in the main determinants of the vaccine protective response, with diminished PRNT seropositivity levels between 5 and 9 years and impaired effector memory in CD8⁺ T cells as early as 1–5 years after 17DD-YF vaccination.

Conclusions

These findings could support changing the vaccination schedule of this population, with the possibility of a planned booster dose upon the suspension of bDMARD in cases where this is allowed, even before 10 years following 17DD-YF vaccination. The benefit of a planned booster dose should be evaluated in further studies.

Trial registration

RBR-946bv5. Date of registration: March 05, 2018. Retrospectively registered

Unexpected outbreaks of arbovirus infections: lessons learned from the Pacific and tropical America

Pandemic arboviruses have emerged as a major global health problem in the past four decades. Predicting where and when the next arbovirus epidemic will occur is a challenge, but history suggests that arboviral black swan events (epidemics that are difficult to predict and that have an extreme effect) will continue to occur as urban growth and globalisation expand. We briefly review unexpected arbovirus epidemics that have occurred in the past 50 years, with emphasis on the American and Pacific regions, to illustrate their unpredictability, and to highlight the need for improved global preparedness, including laboratory-based surveillance, prevention, and control programmes.

Yellow Fever Virus: Knowledge Gaps Impeding the Fight Against an Old Foe

Yellow fever (YF) was one of the most dangerous infectious diseases of the 18th and 19th centuries, resulting in mass casualties in Africa and the Americas. The etiologic agent is yellow fever virus (YFV), and its live-attenuated form, YFV-17D, remains one of the most potent vaccines ever developed. During the first half of the 20th century, vaccination combined with mosquito control eradicated YFV transmission in urban areas. However, the recent 2016-2018 outbreaks in areas with historically low or no YFV activity have raised serious concerns for an estimated 400-500 million unvaccinated people who now live in at-risk areas. Once a forgotten disease, we highlight here that YF still represents a very real threat to human health and economies. As many gaps remain in our understanding of how YFV interacts with the human host and causes disease, there is an urgent need to address these knowledge gaps and propel YFV research forward.

Factors contributing to and strategies to combat emerging arboviruses

Less than half a century ago infectious diseases appeared to be destined to be extinguished via as a culmination of medical triumphs. As focus turned towards combating non-communicable diseases, emerging and re-emerging diseases (EIDs) have bloomed from those ashes. Five epidemic mosquito-borne arboviruses (Yellow Fever virus (YFV), Dengue virus, West Nile virus, Chikungunya virus, and Zika virus) have emerged in the recent past. Arboviruses are of the utmost importance with respect to EIDs due to intensive growth of globalisation, arthropod urban fitness/adaption, and environmental changes. We focus on recent outbreaks of the arthropod borne viruses (arboviruses) Zika virus and YFV. Factors contributing to the blossoming of EIDs (environmental, globalisation, and urbanisation) and combating strategies (surveillance, containment, and prevention) will be discussed. Specifically, Zika virus and YFV will be used in the context of these factors and strategies. YFV is discussed in detail as it pertains to these factors and strategies in the United States (US), 2017 Brazil Outbreak, 2016 Africa Outbreak, and global risk. Vigilance is needed to focus on, prevent, and control the current and next arbovirus EIDs.

Mosquito-borne arboviruses of African origin: review of key viruses and vectors

Key aspects of 36 mosquito-borne arboviruses indigenous to Africa are summarized, including lesser or poorly-known viruses which, like Zika, may have the potential to escape current sylvatic cycling to achieve greater geographical distribution and medical importance. Major vectors are indicated as well as reservoir hosts, where known. A series of current and future risk factors is addressed. It is apparent that Africa has been the source of most of the major mosquito-borne viruses of medical importance that currently constitute serious global public health threats, but that there are several other viruses with potential for international challenge. The conclusion reached is that increased human population growth in decades ahead coupled with increased international travel and trade is likely to sustain and increase the threat of further geographical spread of current and new arboviral disease.

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector.

METHODS

Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps.

RESULTS

Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.

Examining the potential for South American arboviruses to spread beyond the New World

Zika and chikungunya viruses emerged as public health emergencies in the Western Hemisphere where previously they had not been reported on a large scale. Millions were infected as the viruses met with virtually no herd immunity upon emergence.

Purpose of the Review

We explore the histories of these two recent arbovirus experiences in South America. We then review similarly three endemic South American viruses: yellow fever, Oropouche, and Mayaro viruses.

Recent Findings

We discuss the commonalities of the transmission systems and the possibility of an atypical emergence, that of New World virus to the Old World.

Summary

We discuss the avenues for research that would increase preparedness and efficiency of response should a South American arbovirus emerge in the Eastern Hemisphere.