Air Pollution and Mortality in Seven Million Adults: The Dutch Environmental Longitudinal Study (DUELS)

Exploration of Geographical Environmental Factors Influencing Regional Population Mortality Patterns in China

OBJECTIVES

The regional population mortality patterns in China exhibit substantial geographical distribution characteristics. This paper aims to explore the impact and mechanisms of geographical environmental factors on regional population mortality patterns.

METHODS

This study first utilized the data from China's Seventh Population Census to obtain mortality patterns for the 31 provincial-level administrative regions. Subsequently, a functional regression method was employed to explore the geographical environmental driving factors of regional mortality patterns.

RESULTS

The study provides a detailed explanation of the mechanisms and marginal contributions of key geographical environmental factors at different age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

(1) The impact of geographical environmental factors on mortality patterns shows distinct phased characteristics. Mortality patterns before the age of 40 years are hardly influenced by geographical environmental factors, with a noticeable impact beginning at ages 40-69 years and reaching the maximum influence after the age of 70 years. (2) In mortality patterns at ages 40-69 years, average altitude have the most substantial impact, followed by extreme low-temperature days and PM2.5 concentration. In mortality patterns at ages 70-94 years, high-temperature days have the greatest influence, followed by the impact of SO2 concentration. (3) In comparisons based on gender, socioeconomic factors, and geographical environmental factors, gender and urban-rural differences have the most significant impact on regional population mortality patterns, followed by the influence of other socioeconomic factors, with geographical environmental factors having a relatively smaller impact.

Excess deaths and loss of life expectancy attributed to long-term NO2 exposure in the Chinese elderly

BACKGROUND

Evidence linking nitrogen dioxide (NO2) air pollution to life span of high-vulnerability older adults is extensively scarce in low- and middle-income countries. This study seeks to quantify mortality risk, excess deaths, and loss of life expectancy (LLE) associated with long-term exposure to NO2 among elderly individuals in China.

METHODS

A nationwide dynamic cohort of 20352 respondents ≥65 years old were enrolled from the China Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey during 2005-2018. Residential exposures to NO2 and co-pollutants were assessed by well-validated spatiotemporal prediction models. A Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was utilized to quantify the association of all-cause mortality with NO2 exposure, controlling for confounders such as demographics, lifestyle, health status, and ambient temperature. NO2-attributable deaths and LLE were evaluated for the years 2010 and 2020 based on the pooled NO2-mortality relation derived from multi-national cohort investigations. Decomposition analyses were conducted to dissociate net shift in NO2-related deaths between 2010 and 2020 into four primary contributing factors.

RESULTS

A total of 14313 deaths were recorded during follow-up of approximately 100 hundred person-years (median 3.6 years). We observed an approximately linear relationship (nonlinear P = 0.882) of NO2 exposure with all-cause death across a broad range from 6.6 to 95.7 μg/m3. Every 10-μg/m3 rise in yearly average NO2 concentration was linked to a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.045 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.031-1.059). In the updated meta-analysis of this study and 9 existing cohorts, we estimated a pooled HR of 1.043 (95% CI: 1.023-1.063) for each 10-μg/m3 growth in NO2. Reaching a 10-μg/m3 counterfactual target of NO2 concentration in China could avoid 0.33 (95% empirical CI: 0.19-0.49) million premature deaths and an LLE of 0.40 (95% empirical CI: 0.23-0.59) years in 2010, which greatly dropped to 0.24 (95% empirical CI: 0.14-0.36) million deaths and 0.21 (95% empirical CI: 0.12-0.31) years of LLE in 2020. The net fall in NO2-attributable deaths (-26.8%) between 2010 and 2020 was primarily driven by the declines in both NO2 concentration (-41.6%) and mortality rate (-27.1%) under population growth (+41.0%) and age structure transition (+0.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide national evidence for increased risk of premature death and loss of life expectancy attributed to later-life NO2 exposure among the elderly in China. In an accelerated aging society, strengthened clean air actions should be formulated to minimize the health burden and regional inequality in NO2-attributable mortality.

Monitoring and assessment of CO2 and NO2 in schools within the Sentinel Schools Network of Catalonia during the COVID-19 era

In response to the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, international and national authorities, including those in Catalonia (Spain), recognized the crucial need to ensure proper ventilation in classrooms, emphasizing the importance of safe and healthy indoor environments for face-to-face learning. The present work, conducted within the COVID-19 Sentinel Schools Network of Catalonia (CSSNC) framework, aimed to monitor carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations in 23 schools, ensuring a comprehensive sample regarding educational levels, daily scholar schedules, and classroom typologies distributed across the four provinces of Catalonia. The research spanned three study periods: March and April 2021, October 2021 to January 2022, and March to June 2022. Briefly, 28%, 25%, and 37% of classrooms surpassed the 700 parts per million (ppm) CO2 limit in each study period, respectively. Generally, CO2 averages were lower in preschool classrooms (mean ± SD = 486 ± 106 ppm), while high school classrooms displayed the highest CO2 concentrations (mean ± SD = 710 ± 253 ppm). Moreover, classrooms in towns (<30000 inhabitants) exhibited higher CO2 levels as compared to classrooms from schools located in cities. As for NO2, the highest averages were obtained in urban areas, particularly in the Barcelona metropolitan area (e.g. mean indoor levels of 24.56 μg m-3 as compared to 11.05 μg m-3 in towns). In addition, the Indoor/Outdoor ratio (I/O ratio) in towns was the lowest (0.60). These results, together with the higher concentration of CO2 indoors, could indicate poorer ventilation in town schools. The results of this study are anticipated to contribute to implementing evidence-based measures to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) in educational settings.

Emerging contaminants: A One Health perspective

Environmental pollution is escalating due to rapid global development that often prioritizes human needs over planetary health. Despite global efforts to mitigate legacy pollutants, the continuous introduction of new substances remains a major threat to both people and the planet. In response, global initiatives are focusing on risk assessment and regulation of emerging contaminants, as demonstrated by the ongoing efforts to establish the UN's Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste, and Pollution Prevention. This review identifies the sources and impacts of emerging contaminants on planetary health, emphasizing the importance of adopting a One Health approach. Strategies for monitoring and addressing these pollutants are discussed, underscoring the need for robust and socially equitable environmental policies at both regional and international levels. Urgent actions are needed to transition toward sustainable pollution management practices to safeguard our planet for future generations.

Air pollution and survival in patients with malignant mesothelioma and asbestos-related lung cancer: a follow-up study of 1591 patients in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Despite significant advancements in treatments such as surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, the survival rate for patients with asbestos-related cancers remains low. Numerous studies have provided evidence suggesting that air pollution induces oxidative stress and inflammation, affecting acute respiratory diseases, lung cancer, and overall mortality. However, because of the high case fatality rate, there is limited knowledge regarding the effects of air pollution exposures on survival following a diagnosis of asbestos-related cancers. This study aimed to determine the effect of air pollution on the survival of patients with malignant mesothelioma and asbestos-related lung cancer.

METHODS

We followed up with 593 patients with malignant mesothelioma and 998 patients with lung cancer identified as asbestos victims between 2009 and 2022. Data on five air pollutants-sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, fine particulate matter with a diameter < 10 μm, and fine particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 μm-were obtained from nationwide atmospheric monitoring stations. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association of cumulative air pollutant exposure with patient mortality, while adjusting for potential confounders. Quantile-based g-computation was used to assess the combined effect of the air pollutant mixture on mortality.

RESULTS

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates for both cancer types decreased with increasing exposure to all air pollutants. The estimated hazard ratios rose significantly with a 1-standard deviation increase in each pollutant exposure level. A quartile increase in the pollutant mixture was associated with a 1.99-fold increase in the risk of malignant mesothelioma-related mortality (95% confidence interval: 1.62, 2.44). For lung cancer, a quartile increase in the pollutant mixture triggered a 1.87-fold increase in the mortality risk (95% confidence interval: 1.53, 2.30).

CONCLUSION

These findings support the hypothesis that air pollution exposure after an asbestos-related cancer diagnosis can negatively affect patient survival.

Long-term exposure to air pollution on cardio-respiratory, and lung cancer mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Air pollution is a major cause of specific deaths worldwide. This review article aimed to investigate the results of cohort studies for air pollution connected with the all-cause, cardio-respiratory, and lung cancer mortality risk by performing a meta-analysis. Relevant cohort studies were searched in electronic databases (PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus). We used a random effect model to estimate the pooled relative risks (RRs) and their 95% CIs (confidence intervals) of mortality. The risk of bias for each included study was also assessed by Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) checklists. We applied statistical tests for heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses. The registration code of this study in PROSPERO was CRD42023422945. A total of 88 cohort studies were eligible and included in the final analysis. The pooled relative risk (RR) per 10 μg/m3 increase of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was 1.080 (95% CI 1.068-1.092) for all-cause mortality, 1.058 (95% CI 1.055-1.062) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.066 (95%CI 1.034-1.097) for respiratory mortality and 1.118 (95% CI 1.076-1.159) for lung cancer mortality. We observed positive increased associations between exposure to PM2.5, PM10, black carbon (BC), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and lung cancer mortality, but the associations were not significant for nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ozone (O3). The risk of mortality for males and the elderly was higher compared to females and younger age. The pooled effect estimates derived from cohort studies provide substantial evidence of adverse air pollution associations with all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, and lung cancer mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-024-00900-6.

Disentangling fine particles (PM2.5) composition in Hanoi, Vietnam: Emission sources and oxidative potential

A comprehensive chemical characterization of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was conducted at an urban site in one of the most densely populated cities of Vietnam, Hanoi. Chemical analysis of a series of 57 daily PM2.5 samples obtained in 2019-2020 included the quantification of a detailed set of chemical tracers as well as the oxidative potential (OP), which estimates the ability of PM to catalyze reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in vivo as an initial step of health effects due to oxidative stress. The PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 8.3 to 148 μg m-3, with an annual average of 40.2 ± 26.3 μg m-3 (from September 2019 to December 2020). Our results obtained by applying the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) source-receptor apportionment model showed the contribution of nine PM2.5 sources. The main anthropogenic sources contributing to the PM mass concentrations were heavy fuel oil (HFO) combustion (25.3 %), biomass burning (20 %), primary traffic (7.6 %) and long-range transport aerosols (10.6 %). The OP activities were evaluated for the first time in an urban site in Vietnam. The average OPv levels obtained in our study were 3.9 ± 2.4 and 4.5 ± 3.2 nmol min-1 m-3 for OPDTT and OPAA, respectively. We assessed the contribution to OPDTT and OPAA of each PM2.5 source by applying multilinear regression models. It shows that the sources associated with human activities (HFO combustion, biomass burning and primary traffic) are the sources driving OP exposure, suggesting that they should be the first sources to be controlled in future mitigation strategies. This study gives for the first time an extensive and long-term chemical characterization of PM2.5, providing also a link between emission sources, ambient concentrations and exposure to air pollution at an urban site in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Assessing the Global Impact of Ambient Air Pollution on Cancer Incidence and Mortality: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

This study aims to examine the association between exposure to major ambient air pollutants and the incidence and mortality of lung cancer and some nonlung cancers.

METHODS

This meta-analysis used PubMed and EMBASE databases to access published studies that met the eligibility criteria. Primary analysis investigated the association between exposure to air pollutants and cancer incidence and mortality. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis was conducted using R software.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 61 studies, of which 53 were cohort studies and eight were case-control studies. Particulate matter 2.5 mm or less in diameter (PM2.5) was the exposure pollutant in half (55.5%), and lung cancer was the most frequently studied cancer in 59% of the studies. A pooled analysis of exposure reported in cohort and case-control studies and cancer incidence demonstrated a significant relationship (relative risk [RR], 1.04 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.05]; I2, 88.93%; P < .05). A significant association was observed between exposure to pollutants such as PM2.5 (RR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.12]; I2, 68.52%) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (RR, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.05]; I2, 73.52%) and lung cancer incidence. The relationship between exposure to the air pollutants and cancer mortality demonstrated a significant relationship (RR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.10]; I2, 94.77%; P < .001). Among the four pollutants, PM2.5 (RR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.22]; I2, 95.33%) and NO2 (RR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.08]; I2, 89.98%) were associated with lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

The study confirms the association between air pollution exposure and lung cancer incidence and mortality. The meta-analysis results could contribute to community cancer prevention and diagnosis and help inform stakeholders and policymakers in decision making.

Disentangling associations between multiple environmental exposures and all-cause mortality: an analysis of European administrative and traditional cohorts

Background

We evaluated the independent and joint effects of air pollution, land/built environment characteristics, and ambient temperature on all-cause mortality as part of the EXPANSE project.

Methods

We collected data from six administrative cohorts covering Catalonia, Greece, the Netherlands, Rome, Sweden, and Switzerland and three traditional cohorts in Sweden, the Netherlands, and Germany. Participants were linked to spatial exposure estimates derived from hybrid land use regression models and satellite data for: air pollution [fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon (BC), warm season ozone (O3)], land/built environment [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to water, impervious surfaces], and ambient temperature (the mean and standard deviation of warm and cool season temperature). We applied Cox proportional hazard models accounting for several cohort-specific individual and area-level variables. We evaluated the associations through single and multiexposure models, and interactions between exposures. The joint effects were estimated using the cumulative risk index (CRI). Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR) were combined using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

We observed over 3.1 million deaths out of approximately 204 million person-years. In administrative cohorts, increased exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (pooled HRs: 1.054, 1.033, and 1.032, respectively). We observed an adverse effect of increased impervious surface and mean season-specific temperature, and a protective effect of increased O3, NDVI, distance to water, and temperature variation on all-cause mortality. The effects of PM2.5 were higher in areas with lower (10th percentile) compared to higher (90th percentile) NDVI levels [pooled HRs: 1.054 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.030-1.079) vs. 1.038 (95% CI 0.964-1.118)]. A similar pattern was observed for NO2. The CRI of air pollutants (PM2.5 or NO2) plus NDVI and mean warm season temperature resulted in a stronger effect compared to single-exposure HRs: [PM2.5 pooled HR: 1.061 (95% CI 1.021-1.102); NO2 pooled HR: 1.041 (95% CI 1.025-1.057)]. Non-significant effects of similar patterns were observed in traditional cohorts.

Discussion

The findings of our study not only support the independent effects of long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness, but also highlight the increased effect when interplaying with other environmental exposures.

Assessment of health impacts and costs attributable to air pollution in urban areas using two different approaches. A case study in the Western Balkans

In this study, two different air quality impact assessment methodologies were adopted and combined with a sensitivity analysis to estimate the unit costs. Air pollution health impact (mortality) assessment was carried out using one methodology based on log-linear concentration response functions (CRF) and another relying on the integrated exposure response curve (IER) from the Global Burden of Disease. Morbidity impacts were estimated with the CRF approach only. To assess the inequalities between low and high income countries, an area of low-medium income countries with a critical air pollution situation, was selected. The health impact and related external costs attributable to air pollution in 2019 were assessed in 30 urban areas of the Western Balkans region, one of Europe's air pollution hot spots. The evaluation was based on PM2.5, O3 and NO2 concentrations in background sites from official monitoring networks. In 2019, the cost of mortality attributable to PM2.5 in 26 urban areas was 7.8 and 9.0 billion Euro according to IER and CRF methodologies, respectively. The cost of O3 associated with all-cause mortality estimated with the CRF methodology in 17 urban areas was 1.0 billion Euro while the one attributable to NO2 pollution in 28 urban areas was 1.5 billion Euro. The study results suggest that the economic burden of air pollution in the Western Balkans is higher in terms of GDP than the one observed in EU27 in the same time window. The study concludes that CRF and IER methodologies are coherent, because the discrepancy in the results are explained by the differences in the assessed health outcomes. The two approaches are complementary because the combination of them makes it possible to obtain a wider range of outcomes. In addition, despite the different causes of death considered, the comparison between them is useful for cross-validation.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in Scotland: A register-based individual-level longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is associated with several adverse health outcomes. However, heterogeneity in the size of effect estimates between cohort studies for long-term exposures exist and pollutants like SO2 and mental/behavioural health outcomes are little studied. This study examines the association between long-term exposure to multiple ambient air pollutants and all-cause and cause-specific mortality from both physical and mental illnesses.

METHODS

We used individual-level administrative data from the Scottish-Longitudinal-Study (SLS) on 202,237 individuals aged 17 and older, followed between 2002 and 2017. The SLS dataset was linked to annual concentrations of NO2, SO2, and particulate-matter (PM10, PM2.5) pollution at 1 km2 spatial resolution using the individuals' residential postcode. We applied survival analysis to assess the association between air pollution and all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer, mental/behavioural disorders/suicides, and other-causes mortality.

RESULTS

Higher all-cause mortality was associated with increasing concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 pollutants. NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 were also associated with cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer and other-causes mortality. For example, the mortality hazard from respiratory diseases was 1.062 (95%CI = 1.028-1.096), 1.025 (95%CI = 1.005-1.045), and 1.013 (95%CI = 1.007-1.020) per 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 pollutants, respectively. In contrast, mortality from mental and behavioural disorders was associated with 1 μg/m3 higher exposure to SO2 pollutant (HR = 1.042; 95%CI = 1.015-1.069).

CONCLUSION

This study revealed an association between long-term (16-years) exposure to ambient air pollution and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The results suggest that policies and interventions to enhance air quality would reduce the mortality hazard from cardio-respiratory, cancer, and mental/behavioural disorders in the long-term.

Exposure to low-level ambient air pollution and the relationship with lung and bladder cancer in older men, in Perth, Western Australia

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is a cause of lung cancer and is associated with bladder cancer. However, the relationship between air pollution and these cancers in regions of low pollution is unclear. We investigated associations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon (BC), and both these cancers in a low-pollution city.

METHODS

A cohort of 11,679 men ≥65 years old in Perth (Western Australia) were followed from 1996-1999 until 2018. Pollutant concentrations, as a time-varying variable, were estimated at participants' residential addresses using land use regression models. Incident lung and bladder cancer were identified through the Western Australian Cancer Registry. Risks were estimated using Cox proportional-hazard models (age as the timescale), adjusting for smoking, socioeconomic status, and co-pollutants.

RESULTS

Lung cancer was associated with PM2.5 and BC in the adjusted single-pollutant models. A weak positive association was observed between ambient air pollution and squamous cell lung carcinoma but not lung adenocarcinoma. Positive associations were observed with bladder cancer, although these were not statistically significant. Associations were attenuated in two-pollutant models.

CONCLUSION

Low-level ambient air pollution is associated with lung, and possibly bladder, cancer among older men, suggesting there is no known safe level for air pollution as a carcinogen.

An analysis of atmospheric stability indices and parameters under air pollution conditions

The stability of the atmosphere plays an important role in changes in air pollutant concentrations. Stable atmospheric conditions cause pollutant concentrations to reach high values, which degrades the air quality in a particular region. This study aims to reveal the relationship between atmospheric stability indices/parameters (thermodynamic indices) and changes in air pollutant concentrations. Pollutant concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 were statistically analyzed for a 10-year (2013-2022) period for nine air quality stations located in the megacity Istanbul. Based on national and international air quality standards, 145 episode days were determined for the days when these parameters exceeded the threshold values. Five stability indices (Showalter Index - SI, Lifted Index - LI, Severe Weather Index - SWEAT, K Index - KI, Totals Totals Index - TTI), and three stability parameters (Convective Available Potential Energy - CAPE, Convective Inhibition - CIN, Bulk Richardson Number - BRN) were used to determine the stability of the atmosphere for episode days. It has been found that in cases where air pollutant concentrations are high, the stability parameters reveal the stability of the atmosphere better than the stability indices. It was also found that there was at least one vertical inversion layer on 122 of the 145 episode days, these layers mostly (84%) occurred between the surface and 850 hPa levels, and the layer thicknesses were mostly between 0-250 m (84%).

The spatial-temporal effect of air pollution on individuals' reported health and its variation by ethnic groups in the United Kingdom: a multilevel longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is associated with poor health; though it is unclear whether this association is stronger for ethnic minorities compared to the rest of the population. This study uses longitudinal data to investigate the spatial-temporal effect of air pollution on individuals' reported health and its variation by ethnicity in the United-Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

Longitudinal individual-level data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study including 67,982 adult individuals with 404,264 repeated responses over 11 years (2009-2019) were utilized and were linked to yearly concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, and particulate-matter (PM10, PM2.5) pollution once at the local authority and once at the census Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence for each individual. This allows for analysis at two geographical scales over time. The association between air pollution and individuals' health (Likert scale: 1-5, Excellent to poor) and its variation by ethnicity was assessed using three-level mixed-effects ordered logistic models. Analysis distinguished between spatial (between areas) and temporal (across time within each area) effects of air pollution on health.

RESULTS

Higher concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, PM10, and PM2.5 pollution were associated with poorer health. Decomposing air pollution into between (spatial: across local authorities or LSOAs) and within (temporal: across years within each local authority or LSOA) effects showed a significant between effect for NO₂ and SO₂ pollutants at both geographical scales, while a significant between effect for PM10 and PM2.5 was shown only at the LSOAs level. No significant within effects were detected at an either geographical level. Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, Black/African/Caribbean and other ethnic groups and non-UK-born individuals reported poorer health with increasing concentrations of NO₂, SO₂, PM10, and PM2.5 pollutants in comparison to the British-white and UK-born individuals.

CONCLUSION

Using longitudinal data on individuals' health linked with air pollution data at two geographical scales (local authorities and LSOAs), this study supports the presence of a spatial-temporal association between air pollution and poor self-reported health, which is stronger for ethnic minorities and foreign-born individuals in the UK, partly explained by location-specific differences. Air pollution mitigation is necessary to improve individuals' health, especially for ethnic minorities who are affected the most.

Long-term exposure to ultrafine particles and natural and cause-specific mortality

BACKGROUND

Health implications of long-term exposure to ubiquitously present ultrafine particles (UFP) are uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between long-term UFP exposure and natural and cause-specific mortality (including cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and lung cancer) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

A Dutch national cohort of 10.8 million adults aged ≥ 30 years was followed from 2013 until 2019. Annual average UFP concentrations were estimated at the home address at baseline, using land-use regression models based on a nationwide mobile monitoring campaign performed at the midpoint of the follow-up period. Cox proportional hazard models were applied, adjusting for individual and area-level socio-economic status covariates. Two-pollutant models with the major regulated pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particles (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), and the health relevant combustion aerosol pollutant (elemental carbon (EC)) were assessed based on dispersion modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 945,615 natural deaths occurred during 71,008,209 person-years of follow-up. The correlation of UFP concentration with other pollutants ranged from moderate (0.59 (PM_2.5)) to high (0.81 (NO₂)). We found a significant association between annual average UFP exposure and natural mortality [HR 1.012 (95 % CI 1.010-1.015), per interquartile range (IQR) (2723 particles/cm³) increment]. Associations were stronger for respiratory disease mortality [HR 1.022 (1.013-1.032)] and lung cancer mortality [HR 1.038 (1.028-1.048)] and weaker for CVD mortality [HR 1.005 (1.000-1.011)]. The associations of UFP with natural and lung cancer mortality attenuated but remained significant in all two-pollutant models, whereas the associations with CVD and respiratory mortality attenuated to the null.

CONCLUSION

Long-term UFP exposure was associated with natural and lung cancer mortality among adults independently from other regulated air pollutants.

Impacts of emissions policies on future UK mortality burdens associated with air pollution

Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM_2.5 and NO₂ air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM_2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO₂ by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ is in the range 26,287 - 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.

Exploring the impact of particulate matter on mortality in coastal Mediterranean environments

Air pollution is one of the most important problems the world is facing nowadays, adversely affecting public health and causing millions of deaths every year. Particulate matter is a criteria pollutant that has been linked to increased morbidity, as well as all-cause and cause-specific mortality. However, this association remains under-investigated in smaller-size cities in the Eastern Mediterranean, which are also frequently affected by heat waves and dust storms. This study explores the impact of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀) and ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) on mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory) in two coastal cities in the Eastern Mediterranean; Thessaloniki, Greece and Limassol, Cyprus. Generalized additive Poisson models were used to explore overall and gender-specific associations, controlling for long- and short-term patterns, day of week and the effect of weather variables. Moreover, the effect of different lags, season, co-pollutants and dust storms on primary associations was investigated. A 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 resulted in 1.10 % (95 % CI: -0.13, 2.34) increase in cardiovascular mortality in Thessaloniki, and in 3.07 % (95 % CI: -0.90, 7.20) increase in all-cause mortality in Limassol on the same day. Additionally, significant positive associations were observed between PM_2.5 as well as PM₁₀ and mortality at different lags up to seven days. Interestingly, an association with dust storms was observed only in Thessaloniki, having a protective effect, while the gender-specific analysis revealed significant associations only for the males in both cities. The outcome of this study highlights the need of city- or county-specific public health interventions to address the impact of climate, population lifestyle behaviour and other socioeconomic factors that affect the exposure to air pollution and other synergistic effects that alter the effect of PM on population health.

Ambient NO2 exposure hinders long-term survival of Chinese middle-aged and older adults

INTRODUCTION

Serval longitudinal investigations have reported relationships between long-term nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) exposure and mortality. In developing countries such as China, however, the cohort evidence was extremely rare. In this study, we aimed to establish the concentration-response relationship between long-term exposure to NO₂ and mortality in Chinese adults.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study followed up from 2011 to 2018, by enrolling 15,440 participants aged ≥45 years from 28 provincial regions of China. NO₂ concentration estimates were derived from high-quality spatiotemporal datasets developed by machine learning methods and were assigned for each participant according to their residential cities. We applied Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying exposures to assess the association of all-cause death with long-term NO₂ exposure. Subgroup analyses were performed to identify effect modifications.

RESULTS

A total of 1646 death events occurred during 105,478.5 person-years' follow-up (median 7.1 years). No evident violation for linear NO₂-mortality relationship (P nonlinear = 0.332) was observed at a range of 7.4-45.0 μg/m³. Per 10-μg/m³ rise in NO₂ was associated with an hazard ratio of 1.220 (95% confidence interval: 1.103-1.350) for all-cause mortality. The association between NO₂ and mortality was generally robust after adjusting for co-pollutants including fine particulate matter or/and ozone. Only participants aged 65 and over (1.351 [1.193-1.531]) suffered from increased risks of death associated with NO₂ exposure, and an evident effect modification by age (P = 0.008) was identified. The elevated risk of death induced by NO₂ was also observed in participants living in rural areas and those with elementary school education or below, though effect modifications were non-significant in these subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided novel evidence that long-term NO₂ exposure could be an independent risk for mortality among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. Our findings highlighted the importance of controlling air pollution induced by vehicle emissions.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NO_x and SO_x, known to be harmful to health.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NO_x emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and lung function among children in China: Association and effect modification

Background

Children are vulnerable to the respiratory effects of air pollution, and their lung function has been associated with long-term exposure to low air pollution level in developed countries. However, the impact of contemporary air pollution level in developing countries as a result of recent efforts to improve air quality on children's lung function is less understood.

Methods

We obtained a cross-sectional sample of 617 schoolchildren living in three differently polluted areas in Anhui province, China. 2-year average concentrations of air pollutants at the year of spirometry and the previous year (2017-2018) obtained from district-level air monitoring stations were used to characterize long-term exposure. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁), and forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of FVC (FEF_25-75) were determined under strict quality control. Multivariable regression was employed to evaluate the associations between air pollution level and lung function parameters, overall and by demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and vitamin D that was determined by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry.

Results

Mean concentration of fine particulate matter was 44.7 μg/m³, which is slightly above the interim target 1 standard of the World Health Organization. After adjusting for confounders, FVC, FEV₁, and FEF_25-75 showed inverse trends with increasing air pollution levels, with children in high exposure group exhibiting 87.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 9.5, 166.4] mL decrement in FEV₁ and 195.3 (95% CI: 30.5, 360.1) mL/s decrement in FEF_25-75 compared with those in low exposure group. Additionally, the above negative associations were more pronounced among those who were younger, girls, not exposed to secondhand smoke, non-overweight, physically inactive, or vitamin D deficient.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that long-term exposure to relatively high air pollution was associated with impaired lung function in children. More stringent pollution control measures and intervention strategies accounting for effect modification are needed for vulnerable populations in China and other developing countries.

Health effects of exposure to sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide between 1980 and 2019: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The burden of disease attributed to the indoor exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO₂ ), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂ ), ozone (O₃ ), and carbon monoxide (CO) is not clear, and the quantitative concentration-response relationship is a prerequisite. This is a systematic review to summarize the quantitative concentration-response relationships by screening and analyzing the polled effects of population-based epidemiological studies. After collecting literature published between 1980 and 2019, a total of 19 health outcomes in 101 studies with 182 health risk estimates were recruited. By meta-analysis, the leave-one-out sensitivity analysis and Egger's test for publication bias, the robust and reliable effects were found for SO₂ (per 10 μg/m³ ) with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (pooled relative risks [RRs] 1.016, 95% CI: 1.012-1.021) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (RR 1.012, 95%CI: 007-1.018), respectively. NO₂ (per 10 μg/m³ ) had the pooled RRs for childhood asthma, preterm birth, lung cancer, diabetes, and COPD by 1.134 (1.084-1.186), 1.079 (1.007-1.157), 1.055 (1.010-1.101), 1.019 (1.009-1.029), and 1.016 (1.012-1.120), respectively. CO (per 1 mg/m³ ) was significantly associated with Parkinson's disease (RR 1.574, 95% CI: 1.069-2.317) and CVD (RR 1.024, 95% CI: 1.011-1.038). No robust effects were observed for O₃ . This study provided evidence and basis for further estimation of the health burden attributable to the four gaseous pollutants.

Health Benefits Quantification for New-Energy Vehicles Promotion: A Case Study of Beijing

Considering that the promotion of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) is a potential measure to address urban air pollution, the Chinese government has launched subsidy schemes to improve its market penetration. The purpose of this study is to quantify the economic benefits of NEV promotion from 2016 to 2019 and compare them with the cost of government subsidies in Beijing, so the effectiveness of the NEV policies can be evaluated and valuable recommendations can be provided for decision-making. The exposure-response model and the cost of illness approach was applied to evaluate the health and economic benefits of NEV promotion. Our results are as follows: (1) promoting NEVs can reduce the PM_2.5 concentration significantly, the average annual concentration reduction was between 3.23 μg/m³ and 4.61 μg/m³; (2) at least 37,545 illnesses and deaths in Beijing could be reduced through NEV promotion annually, internal disease (15-64) was the most affected illness; (3) the economic benefits of NEV promotion were far more than the cost and the net benefits stock reached 33.71 billion CNY in 2019, accounting for 0.95% of Beijing's GDP in the same period. This study provides references in the perspective of environmental economics for the policy formulation of promoting NEVs.

NO2 and PM2.5 air pollution co-exposure and temperature effect modification on pre-mature mortality in advanced age: a longitudinal cohort study in China

BACKGROUND

There is a discourse on whether air pollution mixture or air pollutant components are causally linked to increased mortality. In particular, there is uncertainty on whether the association of NO₂ with mortality is independent of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). Furthermore, effect modification by temperature on air pollution-related mortality also needs more evidence.

METHODS

We used the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS), a prospective cohort with geographical and socio-economic diversity in China. The participants were enrolled in 2008 or 2009 and followed up in 2011-2012, 2014, and 2017-2018. We used remote sensing and ground monitors to measure nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) , and temperature. We used the Cox-proportional hazards model to examine the association between component and composite air pollution and all-cause mortality, adjusted for demographic characteristics, lifestyle, geographical attributes, and temperature. We used the restricted cubic spline to visualize the concentration-response curve.

RESULTS

Our study included 11 835 individuals with an average age of 86.9 (SD: 11.4) at baseline. Over 55 606 person-years of follow-up, we observed 8 216 mortality events. The average NO₂ exposure was 19.1 μg/m³ (SD: 14.1); the average PM_2.5 exposure was 52.8 μg/m³ (SD: 15.9). In the single pollutant models, the mortality HRs (95% CI) for 10 μg/m³ increase in annual average NO₂ or PM_2.5 was 1.114 (1.085, 1.143) and 1.244 (1.221, 1.268), respectively. In the multi-pollutant model co-adjusting for NO₂ and PM_2.5, the HR for NO₂ turned insignificant: 0.978 (0.950, 1.008), but HR for PM_2.5 was not altered: 1.252 (1.227, 1.279). PM_2.5 and higher mortality association was robust, regardless of NO₂. When acccounting for particulate matter, NO₂ exposure appeared to be harmful in places of colder climates and higher seasonal temperature variation.

CONCLUSIONS

We see a robust relationship of PM_2.5 exposure and premature mortality in advance aged individuals, however, NO₂ exposure and mortality was only harmful in places of colder climate such as northeast China, indicating evidence of effect modification by temperature. Analysis of NO₂ without accounting for its collinearity with PM_2.5, may lead to overestimation.

Assessment of drinking water safety in the Netherlands using nationwide exposure and mortality data

BACKGROUND

Although drinking water in the Netherlands is generally accepted as safe, public concern about health risks of long-term intake still exist.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to explore associations between drinking water quality for nitrate, water hardness, calcium and magnesium and causes-of-death as related to cardiovascular diseases amongst which coronary heart disease and colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We used national administrative databases on cause-specific mortality, personal characteristics, residential history, social economic indicators, air quality and drinking water quality for parameters specified by the EU Drinking Water Directive. We put together a cohort of 6,998,623 persons who were at least 30 years old on January 1, 2008 and lived for at least five years on the same address. The average drinking water concentration over 2000-2010 at the production stations were used as exposure indicators. We applied age stratified Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Magnesium was associated with a reduced risk for mortality due to coronary heart diseases: HR of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.90, 0.99) per 10 mg/L increase. For mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, a 100 mg/L increase in calcium was associated with a HR of 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.13) and an increase of 2.5 mmol/L of water hardness with a HR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10). The results show an elevated risk for coronary heart disease mortality at calcium concentrations below 30 mg/L, but over the whole exposure range no exposure response relation was observed. For other combinations of drinking water quality parameters and cause-specific mortality studied, no statistical significant associations were identified.

CONCLUSION

We identified in this explorative study a protective effect of magnesium for the risk of mortality to coronary heart disease. Also we found an increased risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease associated with the concentration of calcium and the water hardness in drinking water.

Impact of limited residential address on health effect analysis of predicted air pollution in a simulation study

BACKGROUND

Recent epidemiological studies of air pollution have adopted spatially-resolved prediction models to estimate air pollution concentrations at people's homes. However, the benefit of these models was limited in many studies that used existing health data relying on incomplete addresses resulting from confidentiality concerns or lack of interest when designed.

OBJECTIVE

This simulation study aimed to understand the impact of incomplete addresses on health effect estimation based on the association between particulate matter with diameter ≤10 µm (PM₁₀) and low birth weight (LBW).

METHODS

We generated true annual average concentrations of PM₁₀ at 46,007 mothers' homes and their LBW status, using the parameters obtained from our data analysis and a previous study in Seoul, Korea. Then, we hypothesized that mothers' address information is limited to the district and compared the properties of their health effect estimates of PM₁₀ with those using complete addresses. We performed this comparison across eight environmental scenarios that represent various spatial distributions of PM₁₀ and nine exposure prediction methods that provide different sets of predicted PM₁₀ concentrations of mothers.

RESULTS

We observed increased bias and root mean square error consistently across all environmental scenarios and prediction methods using incomplete addresses compared to complete addresses. However, the bias related to incomplete addresses decreased when we used population-representative exposures averaged to the district from predicted PM₁₀ at census tract centroids.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our simulation study suggested that individual exposure estimated by prediction approaches and averaged across population-representative points can provide improved accuracy in health effect estimates when complete address data are unavailable.

IMPACT STATEMENT

Our simulation study focused on a common and practical challenge of limited address information in air pollution epidemiology, and investigated its impact on health effect analysis. Cohort studies of air pollution have developed advanced exposure prediction model to allow the estimation of individual-level long-term air pollution concentrations at people's addresses. However, it is common that address information of existing health data is available at the coarse spatial scale such as city, district, and zip code area. Our findings can help understand the possible consequences of limited address information and provide practical guidance in achieving the accuracy in health effect analysis.

Does air pollution modify temperature-related mortality? A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is an increasing interest in understanding whether air pollutants modify the quantitative relationships between temperature and health outcomes. The results of available studies were, however, inconsistent. This study aims to sum up the current evidence and provide a comprehensive understanding of this topic.

METHODS

We conducted an electronic search in PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE, Web of Science Core Collection, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. The modified Navigation Guide was applied to evaluate the quality and strength of evidence. We calculated pooled temperature-related mortality at low and high pollutant levels respectively, using the random-effects model.

RESULTS

We identified 22 eligible studies, eleven of which were included in the meta-analysis. Significant effect modification was observed on heat effects for all-cause and non-accidental mortality by particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃) (p < 0.05). The excess risks (ERs) for all-cause and non-accidental mortality were 5.4% (4.4%, 6.4%) and 6.3% (4.8%, 7.8%) at the low PM₁₀ level, 8.8% (7.5%, 10.1%) and 11.4% (8.7%, 14.2%) at the high PM₁₀ level, respectively. As for O₃, the ERs for all-cause and non-accidental mortality were 5.1% (3.9%, 6.3%) and 3.6% (0.1%, 7.2%) at the low O₃ level, 7.6% (6.3%, 9.0%) and 12.5% (4.7%, 20.9%) at the high O₃ level, respectively. Surprisingly, the heat effects on cardiovascular mortality were found to be lower at high carbon monoxide (CO) levels [ERs = 5.4% (3.9%, 6.9%)] than that at low levels [ERs = 9.4% (7.0%, 11.9%)]. The heterogeneity varied, but the results of sensitivity analyses were generally robust. Significant effect modification by air pollutants was not observed for heatwave or cold effects.

CONCLUSIONS

PM₁₀ and O₃ modify the heat-related all-cause and non-accidental mortality, indicating that policymakers should consider air pollutants when establishing heat-health warning systems. Future studies with comparable designs and settings are needed.

Mortality Attributable to Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter: Insights from the Epidemiologic Evidence for Understudied Locations

Epidemiologic cohort studies have consistently demonstrated that long-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM_2.5) is associated with mortality. Nevertheless, extrapolating results to understudied locations may involve considerable uncertainty. To explore this issue, this review discusses the evidence for (i) the associated risk of mortality, (ii) the shape of the concentration-response function, (iii) a causal interpretation, and (iv) how the source mix/composition of PM_2.5 and population characteristics may alter the effect. The accumulated evidence suggests the following: (i) In the United States, the change in all-cause mortality risk per μg/m³ is about 0.8%. (ii) The concentration-response function appears nonlinear. (iii) Causation is overwhelmingly supported. (iv) Fossil fuel combustion-related sources are likely more toxic than others, and age, race, and income may modify the effect. To illustrate the use of our findings in support of a risk assessment in an understudied setting, we consider Kuwait. However, given the complexity of this relationship and the heterogeneity in reported effects, it is unreasonable to think that, in such circumstances, point estimates can be meaningful. Consequently, quantitative probabilistic estimates, which cannot be derived objectively, become essential. Formally elicited expert judgment can provide such estimates, and this review provides the evidence to support an elicitation.

Association between prenatal exposure to ambient air pollutants and postpartum depressive symptoms: A multi-city cohort study

BACKGROUND

Women are vulnerable to depression during postpartum period. While several studies have shown associations between ambient air pollution exposure and depression in general population, there was few studies focused on the effect of various air pollutants on postpartum depression (PPD).

OBJECTIVE

This study is designed to explore the association between prenatal exposure to air pollutants and PPD, and to reveal the potential vulnerable exposure time point.

METHODS

The study enrolled 10,209 pregnant women who delivered between October 2019 and February 2021 in 5 participating hospitals from 3 cities in China. Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was administered at 6 weeks postpartum to identify PPD symptoms. Associations between PPD symptoms and exposure levels in PM_2.5, PM_10, SO₂, CO, NO₂, and O₃ averaged over the whole pregnancy and each trimester were estimated using logistic regression models after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Distributed lag models (DLMs) were used to determine the relevant associations in each gestational week.

RESULTS

The risk for developing PPD symptoms was significant following a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ (aOR = 1.47, 95%CI:1.36-1.59), NO₂ (aOR = 1.63, 95%CI:1.44-1.85), and 0.1 mg/m³ increase in CO (aOR = 2.31, 95%CI: 1.99-2.69) during the whole pregnancy. Similar results were also found in exposure during each trimester of pregnancy. Besides, SO₂ exposure during the second trimester was a major risk factor for developing PPD symptoms (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI:1.03-1.18). Consistent effects were also observed in DLMs, except for PM_2.5 and O₃, which showed no significant sensitive windows throughout pregnancy period.

CONCLUSION

Exposure to PM₁₀, CO, NO₂, and SO₂ in pregnancy is associated with increased risks of developing depression at 6 weeks postpartum. Our findings reveal the importance of air pollution control for preventing maternal mental health disorders among the public.

Long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure and cause-specific mortality in the U.S. Medicare population

BACKGROUND

Since 1971, the annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) has remained at 53 ppb, the impact of long-term NO₂ exposure on mortality is poorly understood.

OBJECTIVES

We examined associations between long-term NO₂ exposure (12-month moving average of NO₂) below the annual NAAQS and cause-specific mortality among the older adults in the U.S.

METHODS

Cox proportional-hazard models were used to estimate Hazard Ratio (HR) for cause-specific mortality associated with long-term NO₂ exposures among about 50 million Medicare beneficiaries living within the conterminous U.S. from 2001 to 2008.

RESULTS

A 10 ppb increase in NO₂ was associated with increased mortality from all-cause (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.05-1.06), cardiovascular (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.10-1.11), respiratory disease (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.08-1.11), and cancer (HR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) adjusting for age, sex, race, ZIP code as strata ZIP code- and state-level socio-economic status (SES) as covariates, and PM_2.5 exposure using a 2-stage approach. NO₂ was also associated with elevated mortality from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, and lung cancer. We found no evidence of a threshold, with positive and significant HRs across the range of NO₂ exposures for all causes of death examined. Exposure-response curves were linear for all-cause, supra-linear for cardiovascular-, and sub-linear for respiratory-related mortality. HRs were highest consistently among Black beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term NO₂ exposure is associated with elevated risks of death by multiple causes, without evidence of a threshold response. Our findings raise concerns about the sufficiency of the annual NAAQS for NO₂.

Residential proximity to crops and agricultural pesticide use and cause-specific mortality: A prospective census-based cohort study in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

There is continued concern about residential proximity to agricultural pesticide use and possible adverse health effects. Studies on this subject have been scarce with inconsistent results. We explored associations between residential proximity to specific crops, pesticide use and cause-specific mortality in a prospective census-based cohort study in The Netherlands.

METHODS

Selecting inhabitants aged >30 living in less urbanized areas, at the same address for nine years up to baseline (2004) from a national register-based cohort, we followed ~3.1 million individuals for cause-specific mortality until 2012. We estimated the area of specific crop groups cultivated within buffers of 50 m, 100 m and 250 m around each individual's residence and the amount of fungicides, herbicides and insecticides used within the same buffers for the period 1995-2003. The association between these exposure proxies and 25 primary causes of death was investigated using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for individual and area-level confounders.

RESULTS

Residential proximity to crops was associated with decreased mortality risks overall. In contrast to the overall trend an increased risk was observed for chronic lower respiratory diseases and proximity to maize cultivation. We found no evidence of an association between the amount of pesticides used and cause-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large prospective census-based cohort study in The Netherlands we found evidence of an increased risk of chronic lower respiratory diseases in relation to maize cultivation which was not reflected in general pesticide use, hinting to specific pesticides or practices in maize cultivation that may lead to the observed increased risk.

Designing health impact functions to assess marginal changes in outdoor fine particulate matter

Estimating health benefits from improvements in ambient air quality requires the characterization of the magnitude and shape of the association between marginal changes in exposure and marginal changes in risk, and its uncertainty. Several attempts have been made to do this, each requiring different assumptions. These include the Log-Linear(LL), IntegratedExposure-Response(IER), and GlobalExposureMortalityModel(GEMM). In this paper we develop an improved relative risk model suitable for use in health benefits analysis that incorporates features of existing models while addressing limitations in each model. We model the derivative of the relative risk function within a meta-analytic framework; a quantity directly applicable to benefits analysis, incorporating a Fusion of algebraic functions used in previous models. We assume a constant derivative in concentration over low exposures, like the LL model, a declining derivative over moderate exposures observed in cohort studies, and a derivative declining as the inverse of concentration over high global exposures in a similar manner to the GEMM. The model properties are illustrated with examples of fitting it to data for the six specific causes of death previously examined by the GlobalBurdenofDisease program with ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). In a test case analysis assuming a 1% (benefits analysis) or 100% (burden analysis), reduction in country-specific fine particulate matter concentrations, corresponding estimated global attributable deaths using the Fusion model were found to lie between those of the IER and LL models, with the GEMM estimates similar to those based on the LL model.

Ambient air pollution, healthy diet and vegetable intakes, and mortality: a prospective UK Biobank study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies suggest potential interactions of air pollutants with dietary factors and genetic susceptibility on mortality risk; however, evidence from prospective studies is still lacking. We aimed to assess the association between air pollution and mortality, and investigate the modification effects of a healthy diet and genetic susceptibility.

METHODS

A total of 386 937 participants were enrolled from 2006 to 2010 and followed up to 2018 in the UK Biobank study. The annual average air pollutant concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters ≤2.5 (PM2.5), ≤10 (PM10) and between 2.5 and 10 µm (PM2.5-10) and nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx) were calculated and linked to participants' residential addresses. Healthy dietary patterns were evaluated by a healthy diet score (HDS) based on intakes of vegetables, fruit, fish, unprocessed red meat and processed meat. We also calculated genetic risk score (GRS) of the lifespan. We examined potential interactions by setting variable cross-product terms of air pollutants with diets or GRS in the models.

RESULTS

We identified 11 881 deaths [2426 from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 1211 from coronary heart disease (CHD) and 466 from stroke] during a median follow-up of 8.9 years. We found that PM2.5 [hazard ratio (HR), 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05-1.55], PM10 (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04-1.34), NO2 (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08), and NOx (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03) were associated with all-cause mortality. PM2.5 was also associated with increased risks of CVD mortality (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.10-2.56) and CHD mortality (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.16-3.75). In addition, we found that adherence to healthy dietary patterns modified associations of PM2.5, NO2 and NOx with all-cause mortality (P-interaction = 0.006, 0.006 and 0.02, respectively). Among the individual dietary components, vegetable intakes showed interactions with PM2.5, NO2 and NOx (P-interaction = 0.007, 0.004 and 0.02, respectively). The associations between air pollutants and increased risks of all-cause mortality were attenuated among participants with higher vegetable intakes. We did not observe interactions between air pollutants and HDS on CVD, CHD or stroke mortality (P-interaction > 0.05). Besides, we did not find interactions between air pollutants and genetic risk for lifespan on mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence linking long-term exposure to various air pollutants to the risk of all-cause, CVD and CHD mortality, and the potential attenuation of a healthy diet, especially high vegetable intakes, on such relations. Our findings highlight the importance of adherence to a healthy diet in lowering ambient air-pollution-related mortality risk.

Long-term exposure to low ambient air pollution concentrations and mortality among 28 million people: results from seven large European cohorts within the ELAPSE project

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with premature mortality, but associations at concentrations lower than current annual limit values are uncertain. We analysed associations between low-level air pollution and mortality within the multicentre study Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE).

METHODS

In this multicentre longitudinal study, we analysed seven population-based cohorts of adults (age ≥30 years) within ELAPSE, from Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, Rome (Italy), and Switzerland (enrolled in 2000-11; follow-up until 2011-17). Mortality registries were used to extract the underlying cause of death for deceased individuals. Annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2·5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), black carbon, and tropospheric warm-season ozone (O₃) from Europe-wide land use regression models at 100 m spatial resolution were assigned to baseline residential addresses. We applied cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for area-level and individual-level covariates to evaluate associations with non-accidental mortality, as the main outcome, and with cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality. Subset analyses of participants living at low pollutant concentrations (as per predefined values) and natural splines were used to investigate the concentration-response function. Cohort-specific effect estimates were pooled in a random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We analysed 28 153 138 participants contributing 257 859 621 person-years of observation, during which 3 593 741 deaths from non-accidental causes occurred. We found significant positive associations between non-accidental mortality and PM_2·5, NO₂, and black carbon, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·053 (95% CI 1·021-1·085) per 5 μg/m³ increment in PM_2·5, 1·044 (1·019-1·069) per 10 μg/m³ NO₂, and 1·039 (1·018-1·059) per 0·5 × 10^-5/m black carbon. Associations with PM_2·5, NO₂, and black carbon were slightly weaker for cardiovascular mortality, similar for non-malignant respiratory mortality, and stronger for lung cancer mortality. Warm-season O₃ was negatively associated with both non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Associations were stronger at low concentrations: HRs for non-accidental mortality at concentrations lower than the WHO 2005 air quality guideline values for PM_2·5 (10 μg/m³) and NO₂ (40 μg/m³) were 1·078 (1·046-1·111) per 5 μg/m³ PM_2·5 and 1·049 (1·024-1·075) per 10 μg/m³ NO₂. Similarly, the association between black carbon and non-accidental mortality was highest at low concentrations, with a HR of 1·061 (1·032-1·092) for exposure lower than 1·5× 10^-5/m, and 1·081 (0·966-1·210) for exposure lower than 1·0× 10^-5/m.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term exposure to concentrations of PM_2·5 and NO₂ lower than current annual limit values was associated with non-accidental, cardiovascular, non-malignant respiratory, and lung cancer mortality in seven large European cohorts. Continuing research on the effects of low concentrations of air pollutants is expected to further inform the process of setting air quality standards in Europe and other global regions.

FUNDING

Health Effects Institute.

Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level NO2 and Mortality among the Elderly Population in the Southeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Mounting evidence has shown that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter [PM ≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] and ozone (O3) can increase mortality. However, the health effects associated with long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are less clear, in particular the evidence is scarce for NO2 at low levels that are below the current international guidelines.

METHODS

We constructed a population-based full cohort comprising all Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥65, N=13,590,387) in the southeastern United States from 2000 to 2016, and we then further defined the below-guideline cohort that included only those who were always exposed to low-level NO2, that is, with annual means below the current World Health Organization guidelines (i.e., ≤21 ppb). We applied previously estimated spatially and temporally resolved NO2 concentrations and assigned annual means to study participants based on their ZIP code of residence. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between long-term exposure to low-level NO2 and all-cause mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

About 71.1% of the Medicare beneficiaries in the southeastern United States were always exposed to low-level NO2 over the study period. We observed an association between long-term exposure to low-level NO2 and all-cause mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR)= 1.042 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.045) in single-pollutant models and a HR= 1.047 (95% CI: 1.045, 1.049) in multipollutant models (adjusting for PM2.5 and O3), per 10-ppb increase in annual NO2 concentrations. The penalized spline indicates a linear exposure-response relationship across the entire NO2 exposure range. Medicare enrollees who were White, female, and residing in urban areas were more vulnerable to long-term NO2 exposure.

CONCLUSION

Using a large and representative cohort, we provide epidemiological evidence that long-term exposure to NO2, even below the national and global ambient air quality guidelines, was approximately linearly associated with a higher risk of mortality among older adults, independent of PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Improving air quality by reducing NO2 emissions, therefore, may yield significant health benefits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9044.

Distance to highway and factory density related to lung cancer death and associated spatial heterogeneity in effects in Jiading District, Shanghai

This study aimed to determine the spatial effects of traffic- and industrial-related pollution on the mortality for lung cancer (LC). We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using the data from LC registry in Jiading District for the period from 2002 to 2012. Standard parametric model with Weibull distribution was used for spatial survival analysis. Shorter distance to highway (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.30) and higher factory density (aOR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05-1.37) were significantly associated with an increased risk of LC death, and there was a spatial difference in the associations between northern and southern areas of Jiading District. The risk was high in suburbs as compared with urban areas. Traffic- and industrial-related pollution were significantly associated with an increased risk of LC death, which showed a spatial variation. Further studies are needed to better understand the current LC status in the suburbs and to reduce health disparities.

Evaluating the energy, health efficiency, and productivity in OECD

In the past, energy and environmental research focused on the performance of individual efficiencies. In order to make up for the research deficiencies, this research uses SBM (slack-based measures) dynamic network DEA (DN-SBM) to assess energy, health efficiency, and DN-TFP productivity changes from 2011 to 2015. This research uses forest area as the carryover that can objectively measure the performance of OECD energy, health, and total efficiency, and calls for the importance of forest protection and planting. The empirical results show that Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden, and Turkey have the best overall efficiency performance, while Ireland (0.4469), Israel (0.4179), and the Netherlands (0.3697) are the three worst. In total, 29 economies show progress in terms of productivity. Moreover, Chile (0.9706), Mexico (0.9995), Slovak Republic (0.9942), Turkey (0.9815), and the UK (0.9886) exhibit a slight decline. The overall efficiency value of 20 countries is greater than the average, and their productivity is showing an upward trend. Only the UK (0.5081, 0.9886) has an overall efficiency value that is less than the overall average with productivity that is showing a drop. About research method, this study utilizes dynamic intertemporal data to evaluate the changes in the overall efficiency and productivity of OECD members with DN-SBM and DN-TFP indices in order to offer more objective research results for various economies that are useful for formulating policies related to energy, national health, and forest conservation.

Self-reported psychological distress and self-perceived health in residents living near pesticide-treated agricultural land: a cross-sectional study in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

There is rising concern regarding possible health effects from exposure to pesticides in residents living near agricultural land. Some studies indicated increased risks of reporting symptoms of anxiety and depression among agricultural workers but less is known about the mental and perceived health of rural residents. We aimed to study possible associations between self-reported psychological distress (SPD) and self-perceived health (SPH) in residents near pesticide-treated agricultural land.

METHODS

Using the Public Health Monitor national survey from 2012, we selected 216 932 participants who lived in rural and semi-urban areas of the Netherlands and changed addresses at most once in the period 2009-2012. Psychological distress (PD) was assessed via the Kessler Psychological Distress scale (K10) and participants were asked to assess their own health. We estimated the area of specific crop groups cultivated within buffers of 50 m, 100 m, 250 m and 500 m around each individual's residence for the period 2009-2012. Association between these exposure proxies and the outcomes was investigated using logistic regression, adjusting for individual, lifestyle and area-level confounders.

RESULTS

Overall, results showed statistically non-significant OR across all buffer sizes for both SPD and SPH, except for the association between SPH and 'all crops' (total area of all considered crop groups) with OR (95% CI) ranging from 0.77 (0.63 to 0.93) in 50 m to 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) in 500 m. We observed that most ORs were below unity for SPH.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides no evidence that residential proximity to pesticide treated-crops is associated with PD or poorer perceived health.

Long term exposure to low level air pollution and mortality in eight European cohorts within the ELAPSE project: pooled analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations between air pollution and mortality, focusing on associations below current European Union, United States, and World Health Organization standards and guidelines.

DESIGN

Pooled analysis of eight cohorts.

SETTING

Multicentre project Effects of Low-Level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) in six European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

325 367 adults from the general population recruited mostly in the 1990s or 2000s with detailed lifestyle data. Stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyse the associations between air pollution and mortality. Western Europe-wide land use regression models were used to characterise residential air pollution concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and black carbon.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Deaths due to natural causes and cause specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 325 367 adults followed-up for an average of 19.5 years, 47 131 deaths were observed. Higher exposure to PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon was associated with significantly increased risk of almost all outcomes. An increase of 5 µg/m³ in PM_2.5 was associated with 13% (95% confidence interval 10.6% to 15.5%) increase in natural deaths; the corresponding figure for a 10 µg/m³ increase in nitrogen dioxide was 8.6% (7% to 10.2%). Associations with PM_2.5, nitrogen dioxide, and black carbon remained significant at low concentrations. For participants with exposures below the US standard of 12 µg/m³ an increase of 5 µg/m³ in PM_2.5 was associated with 29.6% (14% to 47.4%) increase in natural deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study contributes to the evidence that outdoor air pollution is associated with mortality even at low pollution levels below the current European and North American standards and WHO guideline values. These findings are therefore an important contribution to the debate about revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards, and future assessments by the Global Burden of Disease.

Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy

The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.

Mortality and Morbidity Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Low-Level PM2.5, BC, NO2, and O3: An Analysis of European Cohorts in the ELAPSE Project

INTRODUCTION

Epidemiological cohort studies have consistently found associations between long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution and a range of morbidity and mortality endpoints. Recent evaluations by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease study have suggested that these associations may be nonlinear and may persist at very low concentrations. Studies conducted in North America in particular have suggested that associations with mortality persisted at concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) well below current air quality standards and guidelines. The uncertainty about the shape of the concentration-response function at the low end of the concentration distribution, related to the scarcity of observations in the lowest range, was the basis of the current project. Previous studies have focused on PM2.5, but increasingly associations with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are being reported, particularly in studies that accounted for the fine spatial scale variation of NO2. Very few studies have evaluated the effects of long-term exposure to low concentrations of ozone (O3). Health effects of black carbon (BC), representing primary combustion particles, have not been studied in most large cohort studies of PM2.5. Cohort studies assessing health effects of particle composition, including elements from nontailpipe traffic emissions (iron, copper, and zinc) and secondary aerosol (sulfur) have been few in number and reported inconsistent results. The overall objective of our study was to investigate the shape of the relationship between long-term exposure to four pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, BC, and O3) and four broad health effect categories using a number of different methods to characterize the concentration-response function (i.e., linear, nonlinear, or threshold). The four health effect categories were (1) natural- and cause-specific mortality including cardiovascular and nonmalignant as well as malignant respiratory and diabetes mortality; and morbidity measured as (2) coronary and cerebrovascular events; (3) lung cancer incidence; and (4) asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidence. We additionally assessed health effects of PM2.5 composition, specifically the copper, iron, zinc, and sulfur content of PM2,5.

METHODS

We focused on analyses of health effects of air pollutants at low concentrations, defined as less than current European Union (EU) Limit Values, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and/or World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline values for PM2.5, NO2, and O3. We address the health effects at low air pollution levels by performing new analyses within selected cohorts of the ESCAPE study (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects; Beelen et al. 2014a) and within seven very large European administrative cohorts. By combining well-characterized ESCAPE cohorts and large administrative cohorts in one study the strengths and weaknesses of each approach can be addressed. The large administrative cohorts are more representative of national or citywide populations, have higher statistical power, and can efficiently control for area-level confounders, but have fewer possibilities to control for individual-level confounders. The ESCAPE cohorts have detailed information on individual confounders, as well as country-specific information on area-level confounding. The data from the seven included ESCAPE cohorts and one additional non-ESCAPE cohort have been pooled and analyzed centrally. More than 300,000 adults were included in the pooled cohort from existing cohorts in Sweden, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, France, and Italy. Data from the administrative cohorts have been analyzed locally, without transfer to a central database. Privacy regulations prevented transfer of data from administrative cohorts to a central database. More than 28 million adults were included from national administrative cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, England, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland as well as an administrative cohort in Rome, Italy. We developed central exposure assessment using Europewide hybrid land use regression (LUR) models, which incorporated European routine monitoring data for PM2.5, NO2, and O3, and ESCAPE monitoring data for BC and PM2.5 composition, land use, and traffic data supplemented with satellite observations and chemical transport model estimates. For all pollutants, we assessed exposure at a fine spatial scale, 100 × 100 m grids. These models have been applied to individual addresses of all cohorts including the administrative cohorts. In sensitivity analyses, we applied the PM2.5 models developed within the companion HEI-funded Canadian MAPLE study (Brauer et al. 2019) and O3 exposures on a larger spatial scale for comparison with previous studies. Identification of outcomes included linkage with mortality, cancer incidence, hospital discharge registries, and physician-based adjudication of cases. We analyzed natural-cause, cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cardiometabolic, respiratory, and COPD mortality. We also analyzed lung cancer incidence, incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events, and incidence of asthma and COPD (pooled cohort only). We applied the Cox proportional hazard model with increasing control for individual- and area-level covariates to analyze the associations between air pollution and mortality and/or morbidity for both the pooled cohort and the individual administrative cohorts. Age was used as the timescale because of evidence that this results in better adjustment for potential confounding by age. Censoring occurred at the time of the event of interest, death from other causes, emigration, loss to follow-up for other reasons, or at the end of follow-up, whichever came first. A priori we specified three confounder models, following the modeling methods of the ESCAPE study. Model 1 included only age (time axis), sex (as strata), and calendar year of enrollment. Model 2 added individual-level variables that were consistently available in the cohorts contributing to the pooled cohort or all variables available in the administrative cohorts, respectively. Model 3 further added area-level socioeconomic status (SES) variables. A priori model 3 was selected as the main model. All analyses in the pooled cohort were stratified by subcohort. All analyses in the administrative cohorts accounted for clustering of the data in neighborhoods by adjusting the variance of the effect estimates. The main exposure variable we analyzed was derived from the Europewide hybrid models based on 2010 monitoring data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using earlier time periods, time-varying exposure analyses, local exposure models, and the PM2.5 models from the Canadian MAPLE project. We first specified linear single-pollutant models. Two-pollutant models were specified for all combinations of the four main pollutants. Two-pollutant models for particle composition were analyzed with PM2.5 and NO2 as the second pollutant. We then investigated the shape of the concentration-response function using natural splines with two, three, and four degrees of freedom; penalized splines with the degrees of freedom determined by the algorithm and shape-constrained health impact functions (SCHIF) using confounder model 3. Additionally, we specified linear models in subsets of the concentration range, defined by removing concentrations above a certain value from the analysis, such as for PM2.5 25 μg/m3 (EU limit value), 20, 15, 12 μg/m3 (U.S. EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard), and 10 μg/m3 (WHO Air Quality Guideline value). Finally, threshold models were evaluated to investigate whether the associations persisted below specific concentration values. For PM2.5, we evaluated 10, 7.5, and 5 μg/m3 as potential thresholds. Performance of threshold models versus the corresponding no-threshold linear model were evaluated using the Akaike information criterion (AIC).

RESULTS

In the pooled cohort, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values (25 μg/m3 and 40 μg/m3, respectively). More than 50,000 had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 μg/m3). More than 25,000 subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the WHO guideline (10 μg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and diabetes mortality. In our main model, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% [confidence interval] CI) were 1.13 (CI = 1.11, 1.16) for an increase of 5 μg/m3 PM2.5, 1.09 (CI = 1.07, 1.10) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1.08 (CI = 1.06, 1.10) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC for natural-cause mortality. The highest HRs were found for diabetes mortality. Associations with O3 were negative, both in the fine spatial scale of the main ELAPSE model and in large spatial scale exposure models. For PM2.5, NO2, and BC, we generally observed a supralinear association with steeper slopes at low exposures and no evidence of a concentration below which no association was found. Subset analyses further confirmed that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 μg/m3 for NO2. HRs were similar to the full cohort HRs for subjects with exposures below the EU limit values for PM2.5 and NO2, the U.S. NAAQS values for PM2.5, and the WHO guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including different time periods, PM2.5 from the MAPLE project, and estimates from the local ESCAPE model. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. HRs in two-pollutant models were attenuated but remained elevated and statistically significant for PM2.5 and NO2. In two-pollutant models of PM2.5 and NO2 HRs for natural-cause mortality were 1.08 (CI = 1.05, 1.11) for PM2.5 and 1.05 (CI = 1.03, 1.07) for NO2. Associations with O3 were attenuated but remained negative in two-pollutant models with NO2, BC, and PM2.5. We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and incidence of stroke and asthma and COPD hospital admissions. Furthermore, NO2 was significantly related to acute coronary heart disease and PM2.5 was significantly related to lung cancer incidence. We generally observed linear to supralinear associations with no evidence of a threshold, with the exception of the association between NO2 and acute coronary heart disease, which was sublinear. Subset analyses documented that associations remained even with PM2.5 below 20 μg/m3 and possibly 12 μg/m3. Associations remained even when NO2 was below 30 μg/m3 and in some cases 20 μg/m3. In two-pollutant models, NO2 was most consistently associated with acute coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, and COPD hospital admissions. PM2.5 was not associated with these outcomes in two-pollutant models with NO2. PM2.5 was the only pollutant that was associated with lung cancer incidence in two-pollutant models. Associations with O3 were negative though generally not statistically significant. In the administrative cohorts, virtually all subjects in 2010 had PM2.5 and NO2 annual average exposures below the EU limit values. More than 3.9 million subjects had a residential PM2.5 exposure below the U.S. EPA NAAQS (12 μg/m3) and more than 1.9 million had residential PM2.5 exposures below the WHO guideline (10 μg/m3). We found significant positive associations between PM2.5, NO2, and BC and natural-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality, with moderate to high heterogeneity between cohorts. We found positive but statistically nonsignificant associations with diabetes mortality. In our main model meta-analysis, the HRs (95% CI) for natural-cause mortality were 1.05 (CI = 1.02, 1.09) for an increase of 5 μg/m3 PM2.5, 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.07) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 NO2, and 1.04 (CI = 1.02, 1.06) for an increase of 0.5 × 10-5/m BC, and 0.95 (CI = 0.93, 0.98) for an increase of 10 μg/m3 O3. The shape of the concentration-response functions differed between cohorts, though the associations were generally linear to supralinear, with no indication of a level below which no associations were found. Subset analyses documented that these associations remained at low levels: below 10 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 20 μg/m3 for NO2. BC and NO2 remained significantly associated with mortality in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 and O3. The PM2.5 HR attenuated to unity in a two-pollutant model with NO2. The negative O3 association was attenuated to unity and became nonsignificant. The mortality associations were robust to alternative specifications of exposure, including time-varying exposure analyses. Time-varying exposure natural spline analyses confirmed associations at low pollution levels. Effect estimates in the youngest participants (<65 years at baseline) were much larger than in the elderly (>65 years at baseline). Effect estimates obtained with the ELAPSE PM2.5 model did not differ from the MAPLE PM2.5 model on average, but in individual cohorts, substantial differences were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was positively associated with natural-cause and cause-specific mortality in the pooled cohort and the administrative cohorts. Associations were found well below current limit values and guidelines for PM2.5 and NO2. Associations tended to be supralinear, with steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold. Two-pollutant models documented the importance of characterizing the ambient mixture with both NO2 and PM2.5. We mostly found negative associations with O3. In two-pollutant models with NO2, the negative associations with O3 were attenuated to essentially unity in the mortality analysis of the administrative cohorts and the incidence analyses in the pooled cohort. In the mortality analysis of the pooled cohort, significant negative associations with O3 remained in two-pollutant models. Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and BC was also positively associated with morbidity outcomes in the pooled cohort. For stroke, asthma, and COPD, positive associations were found for PM2.5, NO2, and BC. For acute coronary heart disease, an increased HR was observed for NO2. For lung cancer, an increased HR was found only for PM2.5. Associations mostly showed steeper slopes at low exposures with no indication of a threshold.

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period.

FINDINGS

Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (-16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (-10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (-8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (-8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9-66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3-69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations-namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Smog, media attention, and corporate social responsibility-empirical evidence from Chinese polluting listed companies

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of smog in Chinese cities has prompted great changes in the policy environment faced by enterprises. In this study, we address the question whether the decision-making behavior of enterprises will be affected by smog. This paper studied the 2010-2018 data of 218 listed Chinese polluting companies to investigate the impact of smog on corporate social responsibility (CSR). The subjects of this study were all listed on China's A-share market on either the Shenzhen or Shanghai Stock Exchange. The empirical results indicate the following: (1) the more serious the smog, the more likely enterprises are to perform CSR; (2) smog exerts a higher impact on the social responsibility of enterprises that receive more media attention. Further research determined that media attention, whether positive, negative, or neutral, plays the same role in moderating the relationship between smog and CSR; and (3) compared to private enterprises, the function of smog in promoting the CSR fulfillment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is more obvious. Based on the reality of Chinese polluting industries, this research combined smog and media attention in the exploration of CSR, which not only enriches CSR research but also provides positive guidance for the sustainable development of polluting enterprises.

Cohort studies of long-term exposure to outdoor particulate matter and risks of cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Robust evidence is needed for the hazardous effects of outdoor particulate matter (PM) on mortality and morbidity from all types of cancers. To summarize and meta-analyze the association between PM and cancer, published articles reporting associations between outdoor PM exposure and any type of cancer with individual outcome assessment that provided a risk estimate in cohort studies were identified via systematic searches. Of 3,256 records, 47 studies covering 13 cancer sites (30 for lung cancer, 12 for breast cancer, 11 for other cancers) were included in the quantitative evaluation. The pooled relative risks (RRs) for lung cancer incidence or mortality associated with every 10-μg/m³ PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10–1.23; I² = 81%) or 1.22 (95% CI, 1.02–1.45; I² = 96%), respectively. Increased but non-significant risks were found for breast cancer. Other cancers were shown to be associated with PM exposure in some studies but not consistently and thus warrant further investigation.

•

Updated evidence for the association between PM and lung cancer risk has been provided

•

Associations between PM and cancer risks from 13 sites were summarized

•

Further studies should be conducted to fill the research gaps

Effects of exposure to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with non-accidental and cause-specific mortality in the Dutch national cohort

BACKGROUND

Everyday people are exposed to multiple environmental factors, such as surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise. These exposures are generally spatially correlated. Hence, when estimating associations of surrounding green, air pollution or traffic noise with health outcomes, the other exposures should be taken into account. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations of long-term residential exposure to surrounding green, air pollution and traffic noise with mortality.

METHODS

We followed approximately 10.5 million adults (aged ≥ 30 years) living in the Netherlands from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2018. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate associations of residential surrounding green (including the average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in buffers of 300 and 1000 m), annual average ambient air pollutant concentrations [including particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2)] and traffic noise with non-accidental and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In single-exposure models, surrounding green was negatively associated with all mortality outcomes, while air pollution was positively associated with all outcomes. In two-exposure models, associations of surrounding green and air pollution attenuated but remained. For respiratory mortality, in a two-exposure model with NO2 and NDVI 300 m, the HR of NO2 was 1.040 (95%CI: 1.022, 1.059) per IQR increase (8.3 µg/m3) and the HR of NDVI 300 m was 0.964 (95%CI: 0.952, 0.976) per IQR increase (0.14). Road-traffic noise was positively associated with lung cancer mortality only, also after adjustment for air pollution or surrounding green.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower surrounding green and higher air pollution were associated with a higher risk of non-accidental and cause-specific mortality. Studies including only one of these correlated exposures may overestimate the associations with mortality of that exposure.

Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide and mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution is among the greatest environmental risks to human health. However, little is known about the health effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), a traffic-related air pollutant. Herein, we aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to investigate the long-term effects of NO₂ on mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search for studies that were published up to February 2020 and performed a meta-analysis of all available epidemiologic studies evaluating the associations between long-term exposure to NO₂ with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Overall pooled effect estimates as well as subgroup-specific pooled estimates (e.g. location, exposure assessment method, exposure metric, study population, age at recruitment, and key confounder adjustment) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-effects models. Risk of bias assessment was accessed by following WHO global air quality guidelines. Publication bias was accessed by visually inspecting funnel plot and Egger's liner regression was used to test of asymmetry.

RESULTS

Our search initially retrieved 1349 unique studies, of which 34 studies met the inclusion criteria. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality was 1.06 (95%CI: 1.04-1.08, n = 28 studies, I² = 98.6%) per 10 ppb increase in annual NO₂ concentrations. The pooled HRs for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality per 10 ppb increment were 1.11 (95%CI: 1.07-1.16, n = 20 studies, I² = 99.2%) and 1.05 (95%CI: 1.02-1.08, n = 17 studies, I² = 94.6%), respectively. The sensitivity analysis pooling estimates from multi-pollutant models suggest an independent effect of NO₂ on mortality. Funnel plots indicate that there is no evidence for publication bias in our study.

CONCLUSION

We provide robust epidemiological evidence that long-term exposure to NO₂, a proxy for traffic-sourced air pollutants, is associated with a higher risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality that might be independent of other common air pollutants.

3-Nitrobenzanthrone promotes malignant transformation in human lung epithelial cells through the epiregulin-signaling pathway

Exposure to environmental and occupational contaminants leads to lung cancer. 3-Nitrobenzanthrone (3-nitro-7H-benz[de]anthracen-7-one, 3-NBA) is a potential carcinogen in ambient air or diesel particulate matter. Studies have revealed that short-term exposure to 3-NBA induces cell death, reactive oxygen species activation, and DNA adduct formation and damage. However, details of the mechanism by which chronic exposure to 3-NBA influences lung carcinogenesis remain largely unknown. In this study, human lung epithelial BEAS-2B cells were continuously exposed to 0-10-μM 3-NBA for 6 months. NanoString analysis was conducted to evaluate gene expression in the cells, revealing that 3-NBA-mediated transformation results in a distinct gene expression signature including carbon cancer metabolism, metastasis, and angiogenesis. Alterations in tumor-promoting genes such as EREG (epiregulin), SOX9, E-cadherin, TWIST, and IL-6 were involved in epithelial cell aggressiveness. Kaplan-Meier plotter analyses indicated that increased EREG and IL-6 expressions in early-stage lung cancer cells are correlated with poor survival. In vivo xenografts on 3-NBA-transformed cells exhibited prominent tumor formation and metastasis. EREG knockout cells exposed to 3-NBA for a short period exhibited high apoptosis and low colony formation. By contrast, overexpression of EREG in 3-NBA-transformed cells markedly activated the PI3K/AKT and MEK/ERK signaling pathways, resulting in tumorigenicity. Furthermore, elevated IL-6 and EREG expressions synergistically led to STAT3 signaling activation, resulting in clonogenic cell survival and migration. Taken together, chronic exposure of human lung epithelial cells to 3-NBA leads to malignant transformation, in which the EREG signaling pathway plays a pivotal mediating role. • Short-term exposure of lung epithelial cells to 3-NBA can lead to ROS production and cell apoptosis. • Long-term chronic exposure to 3-NBA upregulates the levels of tumor-promoting genes such as EREG and IL-6. • Increased EREG expression in 3-NBA-transformed cells markedly contributes to tumorigenesis through PI3K/AKT and MEK/ERK activation and synergistically enhances the IL-6/STAT3 signaling pathway, which promotes tumorigenicity.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of recent high-quality studies on exposure to particulate matter and risk of lung cancer

BACKGROUND

Several aspects of the association between exposure to air pollution and risk of lung cancer remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed at performing a meta-analysis of high-quality cohort studies on exposure to particulate matter (PM) 10 and PM2.5 and risk of lung cancer.

METHODS

We identified cohort studies published since 2004, that reported risk estimates of lung cancer for exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 adjusted for tobacco smoking and socioeconomic status, and conducted a meta-analysis based on random-effects models, including stratification by outcome, sex, country, tobacco smoking, and age.

RESULTS

Results on PM2.5 exposure were available from 15 studies; the summary relative risk (RR) for an increase of 10 μg/m³ was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09, 1.23). The corresponding RR for PM10 exposure was 1.23 (95 CI 1.05, 1.40; seven studies). A higher risk was suggested in studies based on lung cancer mortality and in studies conducted in East Asia, while no difference was shown according to sex, smoking status or age. There was no suggestion of publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis of an association between exposure to PM2.5 or PM10 and risk of lung cancer, and provided evidence that the magnitude of the risk might be higher than previously estimated, and might be modified by outcome and geographic region.

How atmospheric pollutants impact the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer: A var-based model

The impact of air pollution on humans is a worrisome factor that has gained prominence over the years due to the importance of the topic to society. Lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are among the diseases associated with pollution that increase the mortality rate in Brazil and worldwide. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the impacts of air pollutants on mortality rates from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer (LC) using vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The adjusted model was a VAR(1) and, according to the Granger causality test, the air pollutants selected were PM₁₀, O₃, CO, NO₂, and SO₂. The shocks applied to the variables O₃, using the impulse response function, negatively impacted COPD; in the eighth period, which is stabilized. The LC variable suffered more significant variations from O₃ and after a shock in this variable, an initially negative response in LC occurred and the series stabilized in period nine. After one year, 20.19% of COPD variance was explained by O₃. After twelve months, the atmospheric pollutant O₃ represented 5.00% and NO₂ represented 4.02% of LC variance. Moreover, the variables that caused the highest impact on COPD and LC mortality rates were O₃ and NO₂, indicating that air pollution influences the clinical state of people who have these diseases and even contributes to their development. The VAR model was able to identify the air pollutants that have the most significant impact on the diseases analyzed and explained the interrelationship between them.

Empirical Evidence for the Impact of Environmental Quality on Life Expectancy in African Countries

BACKGROUND

Protecting the health of citizens is a central aim of sustainable development plans, due to the effect of health on social and economic development. However, studies show that environment-related diseases adversely affect the health status of a people, and this situation is worse for African countries. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets have included reducing environment-related deaths since 2015. However, there is a lack of empirical findings focused on the effects of environmental quality on life expectancy in Africa.

OBJECTIVES

The present study examined the impact of environmental quality on life expectancy in 24 African countries.

METHODS

Time-series data ranging from 2000 to 2016 was used and the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-dynamic fixed effect (DFE) model was employed to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The results confirmed that, in the long run, improvements in environmental quality significantly increased life expectancy in the studied African countries during the study period. A unit increment in environmental performance index (EPI) and ecosystem vitality (EV) increased the life expectancy of Africans by 0.137 and 0.1417 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first empirical (econometric) study using a broad measurement (indicator) of environmental quality to investigate its impact on life expectancy in African countries. The study recommends that the introduction of environmentally friendly economies (like renewable energy, land, water, and waste management), legal, socio-economic, demographic, and technological measures are essential to reduce environmental pollution and improve life expectancy in Africa.

COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors declare no competing financial interests.