Humidity's Role in Heat-Related Health Outcomes: A Heated Debate

Effects of Extreme Humidity and Heat on Ventricular Arrhythmia Risk in Patients With Cardiac Devices

Background

Climate change is increasing the frequency of high heat and high humidity days. Whether these conditions can trigger ventricular arrhythmias [ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation, VT/VF] in susceptible persons is unknown.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between warm-season weather conditions and risk of VT/VF in individuals with pacemakers and defibrillators.

Methods

Baseline clinical and device data from 5,944 patients in North Carolina (2010-2021) were linked to daily weather data geocoded to individuals' residential addresses. Associations between extreme humidity, temperature, and VT/VF overall and by patient, community, and built environment factors were estimated using a case time-series design with distributed lag nonlinear models, adjusting for temporal trends and individual factors.

Results

VT/VF events occurred on 4,486 of the 484,988 person-days. Extreme humidity (95th percentile: 90% relative humidity) increased odds of VT/VF in the 7 days following exposure (aOR 1.23 [95% CI: 1.00-1.51]). Humidity-associated VT/VF risk was highest among those who were male (aOR: 1.38 [95% CI: 1.08-1.76]), age 67 to 75 years (aOR: 1.65 [95% CI: 1.16-2.35]) with coronary artery disease (aOR: 1.79 [95% CI: 1.25-2.57]), heart failure (aOR: 1.72 [95% CI: 1.2-2.46]), diabetes (aOR: 3.01 [95% CI: 1.99-4.56]), hypertension (aOR: 2.06 [95% CI: 1.48-2.88]), and prior myocardial infarction (aOR: 1.75 [95% CI: 1.23-2.48]). Communities with high socioeconomic deprivation (aOR: 1.83 [95% CI: 1.28-2.62]), high income inequality (aOR: 1.56 [95% CI: 1.19-2.04]), and urban areas with less greenspace (aOR: 1.29 [95% CI: 0.93-1.78]) also had increased VT/VF risk. High temperatures were not associated with VT/VF.

Conclusions

In patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease, exposure to extreme humidity increased VT/VF risk, especially among vulnerable individuals, disadvantaged communities, and urban areas with less green space. These findings emphasize the need for policies that address environmental risks in susceptible individuals and communities.

Extreme Heat Stress and Unplanned Hospital Admissions

OBJECTIVES

The burden and health impact of heat stress on child hospitalization is limited. This study aims to investigate associations between extreme heat stress exposure based on a Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), emergency department (ED) visits, and ED visits that translate into unplanned hospital admissions.

METHODS

This population-based case-crossover study included all ED visits and unplanned hospital admissions among children and adolescents aged 0 to 18 years from New South Wales, Australia, from July 2001 to June 2020. Heat stress was measured by heatwave days defined as 2 consecutive days or more with daily maximum UTCI in the 95th percentile or higher. Distributed lag nonlinear regression models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, and the relative risks from the models were presented.

RESULTS

Totals of 8 240 170 ED visits and 1 427 736 unplanned hospital admissions were recorded. Compared with nonheatwave days, heatwave days were associated with an increased risk of ED visits and hospital admissions due to infectious diseases and infectious enteritis by 5% to 17% and heat-related illness by 78% to 104%. Findings were consistent for subgroup analyses. Children aged younger than 1 year and those from the most disadvantaged areas were more vulnerable to heat-related illness on heatwave days. Effects on hospitalization were attenuated using ambient temperature only.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the effectiveness of UTCI to more completely demonstrate the harmful impact of extreme heat stress on increased infection and heat-related hospitalizations among children, which were not fully captured by using ambient temperature alone. Findings can inform targeted area-based strategies, particularly among vulnerable groups to mitigate the effects of extreme heat events.

Air Pollution and Temperature in Seizures and Epilepsy: A Scoping Review of Epidemiological Studies

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Seizures and epilepsy can be debilitating neurological conditions and have few known causes. Emerging evidence has highlighted the potential contribution of environmental exposures to the etiology of these conditions, possibly manifesting via neuroinflammation and increased oxidative stress in the brain. We conducted a scoping review of epidemiological literature linking air pollution and temperature exposures with incidence and acute aggravation of seizures and epilepsy. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and APA PsycINFO databases for peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from inception to February 7, 2024.

RECENT FINDINGS

We identified a total of 34 studies: 16 examined air pollution exposure, 12 ambient temperature, and six examined both air pollution and ambient temperature. Most studies were conducted in Asia (China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan). Nearly all studies retrospectively derived acute (daily average), ambient, and postnatal exposure estimates from ground monitoring systems and ascertained epilepsy cases or seizure events through record linkage with medical records, health registry systems, or insurance claims data. Commonly assessed exposures were particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and daily mean ambient temperature. Overall, the main findings across studies lacked consistency, with mixed results reported for the associations of air pollutants and temperature metrics with both seizure incidence and acute aggravations of epilepsy.

Prenatal exposure to heat and humidity and infant birth size in Ghana

Previous studies - primarily in high income countries - have shown that high prenatal temperatures are associated with adverse birth outcomes. However, these studies are mostly focused on average exposure across the full gestational period or short-term exposure immediately prior to delivery and may miss important sensitive windows of exposure in utero. Further, nearly all use ambient air temperature data, which neglect physiologically important interactions between air temperature and humidity. The Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS) recruited pregnant individuals from 2013 to 2015 from communities in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South District of Ghana. We estimated daily maximum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGTmax) and heat index (HImax) during pregnancy and examined associations with birth weight, birth length, head circumference, and incidence of low birth weight, preterm birth, and small for gestational age. Using linear regression analyses, trimester average models identified that higher WBGTmax in the first trimester was associated with larger head circumference; second trimester was associated with shorter birth length, lower birth weight and higher odds of preterm birth, and third trimester was associated with shorter gestational age and larger head circumference. Time-varying analyses using distributed lag nonlinear models find that, compared to the median, lower WBGTmax and HImax (25th percentile) during the first half of pregnancy was associated with higher birth weight and longer birth length. Compared to the median, lower WBGTmax and HImax (25th percentile) in the second half of pregnancy was associated with smaller head circumference while higher wet bulb globe temperature (75th percentile) was associated with larger head circumference. Overall, our study identified that higher WBGTmax and HImax are associated with pregnancy duration and newborn size. Given the overall trend in our study area of rising temperatures, these data suggest that adaptation strategies are urgently needed to protect child health.

Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico

Recent studies project that temperature-related mortality will be the largest source of damage from climate change, with particular concern for the elderly whom it is believed bear the largest heat-related mortality risk. We study heat and mortality in Mexico, a country that exhibits a unique combination of universal mortality microdata and among the most extreme levels of humid heat. Combining detailed measurements of wet-bulb temperature with age-specific mortality data, we find that younger people who are particularly vulnerable to heat: People under 35 years old account for 75% of recent heat-related deaths and 87% of heat-related lost life years, while those 50 and older account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of cold-related lost life years. We develop high-resolution projections of humid heat and associated mortality and find that under the end-of-century SSP 3-7.0 emissions scenario, temperature-related deaths shift from older to younger people. Deaths among under-35-year-olds increase 32% while decreasing by 33% among other age groups.

Heat Index: An Alternative Indicator for Measuring the Impacts of Meteorological Factors on Diarrhoea in the Climate Change Era: A Time Series Study in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Heat index (HI) is a biometeorological indicator that combines temperature and relative humidity. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the Heat Index and daily counts of diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data on daily diarrhoea hospitalisations and meteorological variables from 1981 to 2010 were collected. We categorised the Heat Index of >94.3 °F (>34.6 °C), >100.7 °F (>38.2 °C) and >105 °F (>40.6 °C) as high, very high and extremely high Heat Index, respectively. We applied a time series adjusted generalised linear model (GLM) with negative binomial distribution to investigate the effects of the Heat Index and extreme Heat Index on hospitalisations for diarrhoea. Effects were assessed for all ages, children under 5 years old and by gender. A unit higher HI and high, very high and extremely high HI were associated with 0.8%, 8%, 7% and 9% increase in diarrhoea hospitalisations in all ages, respectively. The effects varied slightly by gender and were most pronounced in children under 5 years old with a rise of 1°F in high, very high and extremely high HI associated with a 14.1% (95% CI: 11.3-17.0%), 18.3% (95% CI: 13.4-23.5%) and 18.1% (95% CI: 8.4-28.6%) increase of diarrhoea, respectively. This suggests that the Heat Index may serve as an alternative indicator for measuring the combined effects of temperature and humidity on diarrhoea.

Associations of heat with diseases and specific symptoms in Flanders, Belgium: An 8-year retrospective study of general practitioner registration data

INTRODUCTION

Global temperature rise has become a major health concern. Most previous studies on the impact of heat on morbidity have used hospital data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to quantify the association between ambient temperature and a variety of potentially heat-related medical conditions and symptoms using general practitioner (GP) data, in Flanders, Belgium.

METHODS

We used eight years (2012-2019) of aggregated data of daily GP visits during the Belgian summer period (May-September). A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with time-stratified conditional quasi-Poisson regression was used to account for the non-linear and delayed effect of temperature indicators (minimum, mean and maximum). We controlled for potential confounders such as particulate matter, humidity, and ozone.

RESULTS

The overall (lag0-14) association between heat and most of the outcomes was J-shaped, with an increased risk of disease observed at higher temperatures. The associations were more pronounced using the minimum temperatures indicator. Comparing the 99th (20 °C) to the minimum morbidity temperature (MMT) of the minimum temperature distribution during summer, the relative risk (RR) was significantly higher for heat-related general symptoms (RR = 1.30 [95 % CI: 1.07, 1.57]), otitis externa (RR = 4.87 [95 % CI:2.98, 7.98]), general heart problems (RR = 2.43 [95 % CI: 1.33, 4.42]), venous problems (RR = 2.48 [95 % CI:1.55, 3.96]), respiratory complaints (RR = 1.97 [95 % CI: 1.25, 3.09]), skin problems (RR = 3.26 [95 % CI: 2.51, 4.25]), and urinary infections (RR = 1.37 [95 % CI: 1.11, 1.69]). However, we did not find evidence for heat-related increases in gastrointestinal problems, cerebrovascular events, cardiovascular events, arrhythmia, mental health problems, upper respiratory problems and lower respiratory problems. An increased risk of allergy was observed when the minimum temperature reached 17.8 °C (RR = 1.50 [95 % CI: 1.23, 1.83]). Acute effects of heat were observed (largest effects at the first few lags).

SUMMARY

Our findings indicated that the occurrence of certain symptoms and illnesses during summer season is associated to high temperature or environmental exposures that are augmented by elevated temperatures. Overall, unlike hospitalization data, GP visits data provide broader population coverage, revealing a more accurate representation of heat-health association.

Extreme Humid-Heat Exposure and Mortality Among Patients Receiving Dialysis

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Exposure to extreme heat events has been linked to increased morbidity and mortality in the general population. Patients receiving maintenance dialysis may be vulnerable to greater risks from these events, but this is not well understood. We characterized the association of extreme heat events and the risk of death among patients receiving dialysis in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Data from the US Renal Data System were used to identify adults living in US urban settlements prone to extreme heat who initiated maintenance dialysis between 1997 and 2016.

EXPOSURE

An extreme heat event, defined as a time-updated heat index (a humid-heat metric) exceeding 40.6°C for≥2 days or 46.1°C for≥1day.

OUTCOME

Death.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the elevation in risk of death during a humid-heat event adjusted for age, sex, year of dialysis initiation, dialysis modality, poverty level, and climate region. Interactions between humid-heat and these same factors were explored.

RESULTS

Among 945,251 adults in 245 urban settlements, the mean age was 63 years, and 44% were female. During a median follow-up period of 3.6 years, 498,049 adults were exposed to at least 1 of 7,154 extreme humid-heat events, and 500,025 deaths occurred. In adjusted models, there was an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1.18 [95% CI, 1.15-1.20]) during extreme humid-heat exposure. The relative mortality risk was higher among patients living in the Southeast (P<0.001) compared with the Southwest.

LIMITATIONS

Possibility of exposure misclassification, did not account for land use and air pollution co-exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that patients receiving dialysis face an increased risk of death during extreme humid-heat exposure.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Patients who receive dialysis are vulnerable to extreme weather events, and rising global temperatures may bring more frequent extreme heat events. We sought to determine whether extreme heat exposure was associated with an increased risk of death in urban-dwelling patients receiving dialysis across the United States. We found that people receiving dialysis were more likely to die during extreme humid-heat events, defined by a heat index exceeding 40.6°C (105°F) for≥2 days or 46.1°C (115°F) for≥1day. These findings inform the nephrology community about the potential importance of protecting patients receiving maintenance dialysis from the risks associated with extreme heat.

Nitric oxide: Potential therapeutic target in Heat Stress-induced Multiple Organ Dysfunction

As climate change intensifies, urgent action is needed to address global warming and its associated health risks, particularly in vulnerable regions. Rising global temperature and increasing frequency of heatwaves present a hidden health risk, disrupting the body's temperature regulation and leading to severe consequences such as heat stress-induced multiple organ dysfunction (HS-MOD). Multiple organ injury triggered by heat stress involves complex molecular pathways such as nitric oxide dysregulation, inflammation, oxidative stress, mitochondrial dysfunction, calcium homeostasis disruption, and autophagy impairment that contribute to cellular damage. Understanding these molecular pathways is crucial for developing targeted therapeutic interventions to alleviate the impact of heat stress (HS). As we explore numerous therapeutic strategies, a remarkable molecule captures our attention: nitric oxide (NO). This colorless gas, mainly produced by nitric oxide synthase (NOS) enzymes, plays crucial roles in various body functions. From promoting vasodilation and neurotransmission to regulating the immune response, platelet function, cell signaling, and reproductive health, NO stands out for its versatility. Exploring it as a promising treatment for heat stress-induced multiple organ injury highlights its distinctive features in the journey towards effective therapeutic interventions. This involves exploring both pharmacological avenues, considering the use of NO donors and antioxidants, and non-pharmacological strategies, such as adopting nitrate-rich diets and engaging in exercise regimens. This review highlights the concept of heat stress, the molecular framework of the disease, and treatment options based upon some new interventions.

Integrating observational and modelled data to advance the understanding of heat stress effects on pregnant subsistence farmers in the gambia

Studies on the effect of heat stress on pregnant women are scarce, particularly in highly vulnerable populations. To support the risk assessment of pregnant subsistence farmers in the West Kiang district, The Gambia we conducted a study on the pathophysiological effects of extreme heat stress and assessed the applicability of heat stress indices. From ERA5 climate reanalysis we added location-specific modelled solar radiation to datasets of a previous observational cohort study involving on-site measurements of 92 women working in the heat. Associations between physiological and environmental variables were assessed through Pearson correlation coefficient analysis, mixed effect linear models with random intercepts per participant and confirmatory composite analysis. We found Pearson correlations between r-values of 0 and 0.54, as well as independent effects of environmental variables on skin- and tympanic temperature, but not on heart rate, within a confidence interval of 98%. Pregnant women experienced stronger pathophysiological effects from heat stress in their third rather than in their second trimester. Environmental heat stress significantly altered maternal heat strain, particularly under humid conditions above a 50% relative humidity threshold, demonstrating interactive effects. Based on our results, we recommend including heat stress indices (e.g. UTCI or WBGT) in local heat-health warning systems.

Associations between environmental factors and running performance: An observational study of the Berlin Marathon

Extensive research has delved into the impact of environmental circumstances on the pacing and performance of professional marathon runners. However, the effects of environmental conditions on the pacing strategies employed by marathon participants in general remain relatively unexplored. This study aimed to examine the potential associations between various environmental factors, encompassing temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloud cover, wind speed, and dew point, and the pacing behavior of men and women. The retrospective analysis involved a comprehensive dataset comprising records from a total of 668,509 runners (520,521 men and 147,988 women) who participated in the 'Berlin Marathon' events between the years 1999 and 2019. Through correlations, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and machine learning (ML) methods, we investigated the relationships between adjusted average temperature values, barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloud cover, wind speed, and dew point, and their impact on race times and paces. This analysis was conducted across distinct performance groups, segmented by 30-minute intervals, for race durations between 2 hours and 30 minutes to 6 hours. The results revealed a noteworthy negative correlation between rising temperatures and declining humidity throughout the day and the running speed of marathon participants in the 'Berlin Marathon.' This effect was more pronounced among men than women. The average pace for the full race showed positive correlations with temperature and minutes of sunshine for both men and women. However, it is important to note that the predictive capacity of our model, utilizing weather variables as predictors, was limited, accounting for only 10% of the variance in race pace. The susceptibility to temperature and humidity fluctuations exhibited a discernible increase as the marathon progressed. While weather conditions exerted discernible influences on running speeds and outcomes, they did not emerge as significant predictors of pacing.

Long-Term Effect of Temperature Increase on Liver Cancer in Australia: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis

BACKGROUND

While some evidence has potentially linked climate change to carcinogenic factors, the long-term effect of climate change on liver cancer risk largely remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective is to evaluate the long-term relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer incidence in Australia.

METHODS

We mapped the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Australia. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the relationships between the increase in temperature at different lags and liver cancer incidence in Australia, after controlling for chronic hepatitis B prevalence, chronic hepatitis C prevalence, and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Spatial random effects obtained from the Bayesian CAR model were also mapped.

RESULTS

The research showed that the distribution of liver cancer in Australia is spatially clustered, most areas in Northern Territory and Northern Queensland have higher incidence and relative risk. The increase in temperature at the lag of 30 years was found to correlate with the increase in liver cancer incidence in Australia, with a posterior mean of 30.57 [95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 0.17, 58.88] for the univariate model and 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) after controlling for confounders, respectively. The results were not highly credible for other lags.

DISCUSSION

Our Bayesian spatial analysis suggested a potential relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer. To our knowledge, this research marks the first attempt to assess the long-term effect of global warming on liver cancer. If the relationship is confirmed by other studies, these findings may inform the development of prevention and mitigation strategies based on climate change projections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574.

Identifying groups at-risk to extreme heat: Intersections of age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status

Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in a significant rise in extreme heat events, exerting considerable but unequal impacts on morbidity and mortality. Numerous studies have identified inequities in heat exposure across different groups, but social identities have often been viewed in isolation from each other. Children (5 and under) and older adults (65 and older) also face elevated risks of heat-related health impacts. We employ an intersectional cross-classificatory approach to analyze the distribution of heat exposure between sociodemographic categories split into age groups in the contiguous US. We utilize high-resolution daily air temperature data to establish three census tract-level heat metrics (i.e., average summer temperature, heat waves, and heat island days). We pair those metrics with American Community Survey estimates on racial/ethnic, socioeconomic, and disability status by age to calculate population weighted mean exposures and absolute disparity metrics. Our findings indicate few substantive differences between age groups overall, but more substantial differences between sociodemographic categories within age groups, with children and older adults from socially marginalized backgrounds facing greater exposure than adults from similar backgrounds. When looking at sociodemographic differences by age, people of color of any age and older adults without health insurance emerge as the most exposed groups. This study identifies groups who are most exposed to extreme heat. Policy and program interventions aimed at reducing the impacts of heat should take these disparities in exposure into account to achieve health equity objectives.

Sex and age characteristics of thunderstorm asthma emergency department visits

Severe asthma has been shown to occur in the combined presence of high pollen and thunderstorm conditions, also known as 'thunderstorm asthma.' First studied as severe epidemic events, recent longitudinal work studied less dramatic but more frequent occurrences. We explore thunderstorm asthma-related emergency department visits in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and evaluated risk differences by sex and age. We define a thunderstorm asthma exposure event as the daily occurrence of 2 or more lightning strikes during high pollen periods, and use daily counts of asthma-related emergency department visits to estimate relative and absolute risk of severe asthma during thunderstorm asthma events for the full population and for sex and age subgroups. The overall population had a 1.06 (95 % CI: 1.02, 1.09) times higher risk of asthma-related ED visits during thunderstorm asthma events compared to days without thunderstorm asthma events. Children under 18 show no higher risk (RR 1.02; 95 % CI: 0.97 1.08), but adults 18-44 years (RR 1.08; 95 % CI: 1.02, 1.13) and 45 and up (RR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.02, 1.15) show higher relative risk. Absolute risk measures show similar patterns to the age and sex results, but age-sex subgroups show more variation in absolute vs relative risk. Our results support an association between ED visits and thunderstorm asthma and provide evidence of varying risks by sex across the life course. These differences in risk have implications for clinical treatment of this allergic type of asthma and for future research into this poorly recognized environmental exposure. Plain Language Summary: Recent research has highlighted the existence of Thunderstorm asthma events, a phenomenon in which pollen grains rupture in the conditions that occur with a thunderstorm, releasing subpollen particles that are capable of triggering severe asthma in susceptible populations. Where severe asthma is a disease that usually impacts children, we find in this study that asthma ED visits associated with thunderstorm asthma events more frequently impact adults, particularly males 18-44 and females 45 and up.

Projections of mortality attributable to hot ambient temperatures in Cyprus under moderate and extreme climate change scenarios

BACKGROUND

Heat-related mortality has become a growing public health concern in light of climate change. However, few studies have quantified the climate-attributable health burden in Cyprus, a recognized climate change hotspot. This study aims to estimate the heat-related mortality in Cyprus for all future decades in the 21st century under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate scenarios.

METHODS

We applied distributed lag non-linear models to estimate the baseline associations between temperature and mortality from 2004 to 2019 (data obtained from Department of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment and the Health Monitoring Unit of the Cyprus Ministry of Health). The relationships were then extrapolated to future daily mean temperatures derived from downscaled global climate projections from General Circulation Models. Attributable number of deaths were calculated to determine the excess heat-related health burden compared to the baseline decade of 2000-2009 in the additive scale. The analysis process was repeated for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and mortality among males, females, and adults younger or older than 65. We assumed a static population and demographic structure, no adaptation to hot temperatures over time, and did not evaluate potential interaction between temperature and humidity.

RESULTS

Compared to 2000-2009, heat-related total mortality is projected to increase by 2.7% (95% empirical confidence interval: 0.6, 4.0) and 4.75% (2.2, 7.1) by the end of the century in the moderate and extreme climate scenarios, respectively. Cardiovascular disease is expected to be an important cause of heat-related death with projected increases of 3.4% (0.7, 5.1) and 6% (2.6, 9.0) by the end of the century. Reducing carbon emission to the moderate scenario can help avoid 75% of the predicted increase in all-cause heat-related mortality by the end of the century relative to the extreme scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that climate change mitigation and sustainable adaptation strategies are crucial to reduce the anticipated heat-attributable health burden, particularly in Cyprus, where adaptation strategies such as air conditioning is nearing capacity.

Methodological Approaches for Measuring the Association Between Heat Exposure and Health Outcomes: A Comprehensive Global Scoping Review

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the methodologies of studies that evaluate the impacts of heat exposure on morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from date of inception until 1 March 2023 for English language literature on heat exposure and health outcomes. Records were collated, deduplicated and screened, and full texts were reviewed for inclusion and data abstraction. Eligibility for inclusion was determined as any article with climate-related heat exposure and an associated morbidity/mortality outcome.

RESULTS

Of 13,136 records initially identified, 237 articles were selected for analysis. The scope of research represented 43 countries, with most studies conducted in China (62), the USA (44), and Australia (16). Across all studies, there were 141 unique climate data sources, no standard threshold for extreme heat, and 200 unique health outcome data sources. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was the most common analytic method (48.1% of studies) and had high usage rates in China (68.9%) and the USA (31.8%); Australia frequently used conditional logistic regression (50%). Conditional logistic regression was most prevalent in case-control studies (5 of 8 studies, 62.5%) and in case-crossover studies (29 of 70, 41.4%). DLNMs were most common in time series studies (64 of 111, 57.7%) and ecological studies (13 of 20, 65.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

This review underscores the heterogeneity of methods in heat impact studies across diverse settings and provides a resource for future researchers. Underrepresentation of certain countries, health outcomes, and limited data access were identified as potential barriers.

Analyzing effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in the Paris region to identify social and environmental levers for more effective adaptation to heat

Adaptation to heat is a major challenge for the Paris region (France). Based on fine-scale data for the 1,287 municipalities of the region over 2000-2017, we analyzed (time-serie design) the temperature-mortality relationship by territories (urban, suburban, rural), age (15-64 and ≥ 65) and sex, and explored how it was modified by vegetation and socio-economic indicators. Heat was associated with an increased mortality risk for all territories, age groups, sex, and mortality causes. Women aged 65 and over residing in the most deprived municipalities had a relative risk (RR) of deaths at 29.4 °C (compared to 16.6 °C) of 4.2 [3.8:4.5], while the RR was 3.4 [3.2:3.7] for women living in less deprived municipalities. Actions to reduce such sex and social inequities should be central in heat adaptation policy.

Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

The rising humid heat is regarded as a severe threat to human survivability, but the proper integration of humid heat into heat-health alerts is still being explored. Using state-of-the-art epidemiological and climatological datasets, we examined the association between multiple heat stress indicators (HSIs) and daily human mortality in 739 cities worldwide. Notable differences were observed in the long-term trends and timing of heat events detected by HSIs. Air temperature (Tair) predicts heat-related mortality well in cities with a robust negative Tair-relative humidity correlation (CT-RH). However, in cities with near-zero or weak positive CT-RH, HSIs considering humidity provide enhanced predictive power compared to Tair. Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of heat-related mortality measured by HSIs could differ largely from those associated with Tair in many cities. Our findings provide important insights into specific regions where humans are vulnerable to humid heat and can facilitate the further enhancement of heat-health alert systems.

Meteorological parameters and hospital-acquired falls-A multicenter retrospective study based on 10 years of adverse events reporting system data

Objective and rationale

Hospital-acquired falls are common and serious adverse events in medical institutions, with high incidence and injury rates. Studying the occurrence patterns of hospital-acquired falls is important for preventing falls in hospitalized patients. However, the effect of meteorological factors on hospital-acquired falls has not been elucidated. Therefore, this study explored the impact of meteorological parameters on hospital-acquired falls in Chongqing, China, and provided new ideas for the clinical prevention of falls in patients.

Methods

Correlation analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models were employed to analyze the relationship between 3890 cases of hospital-acquired falls and meteorological data in 13 hospitals in 11 districts and counties in Chongqing from January 2013 to April 2023.

Results

The number of hospital-acquired falls demonstrated a nonlinear correlation with the daily average relative humidity and negatively correlated with sunshine duration; however, temperature, air pressure, and wind speed were not correlated. Compared to the reference humidity (87 %), the immediate effects of daily average relative humidity (65-68 % and 90-97 %) increased the risk of hospital-acquired falls on the same day (relative risk [RR]:1.027-1.243). When the daily average relative humidity was 95-97 %, lags of 0-1 d and 8-12 d had greater effects on falls (RR:1.073-1.243). The daily average relative humidities of 62-74 % and 91-97 % were statistically significant at cumulative relative risk (CRR)of 4, 7, 10, and 14 d with a cumulative lag (CRR: 1.111-4.277). On sex and age stratification, the lag and cumulative effects of relative humidity more significantly impacted falls in women and patients aged ≥65 years.

Conclusion

Daily average relative humidity had a nonlinear correlation and lag effect on hospital-acquired falls; therefore, medical institutions should pay attention to the effect of relative humidity on hospital-acquired falls in patients, especially old and female patients.

Heat, humidity and health impacts: how causal diagrams can help tell the complex story

The global health burden associated with exposure to heat is a grave concern and is projected to further increase under climate change. While physiological studies have demonstrated the role of humidity alongside temperature in exacerbating heat stress for humans, epidemiological findings remain conflicted. Understanding the intricate relationships between heat, humidity, and health outcomes is crucial to inform adaptation and drive increased global climate change mitigation efforts. This article introduces 'directed acyclic graphs' (DAGs) as causal models to elucidate the analytical complexity in observational epidemiological studies that focus on humid-heat-related health impacts. DAGs are employed to delineate implicit assumptions often overlooked in such studies, depicting humidity as a confounder, mediator, or an effect modifier. We also discuss complexities arising from using composite indices, such as wet-bulb temperature. DAGs representing the health impacts associated with wet-bulb temperature help to understand the limitations in separating the individual effect of humidity from the perceived effect of wet-bulb temperature on health. General examples for regression models corresponding to each of the causal assumptions are also discussed. Our goal is not to prioritize one causal model but to discuss the causal models suitable for representing humid-heat health impacts and highlight the implications of selecting one model over another. We anticipate that the article will pave the way for future quantitative studies on the topic and motivate researchers to explicitly characterize the assumptions underlying their models with DAGs, facilitating accurate interpretations of the findings. This methodology is applicable to similarly complex compound events.

Compounded wind gusts and maximum temperature via semiparametric copula in the risk assessments of power blackouts and air conditioning demands for major cities in Canada

A semiparametric copula joint framework was proposed to model wind gust speed (WGS) and maximum temperature (MT) in Canada, using Gaussian kernel density estimation (GKDE) with parametric copulas. Their joint probability estimates allow for a better understanding of the risk of power blackouts and the demand for air conditioning in the community. The bivariate framework used two extreme sample groups to define extreme pairs at different time lags, i.e., 0 to ± 3 days, annual maximum WGS (AMWGS) and corresponding MT and annual highest MT (AHMT) and corresponding WGS. A thorough model performance comparison indicated that GKDE outperformed the parametric models in defining the marginal distribution of selected univariate series. Significant positive correlations were observed among extreme pairs, except for Calgary and Halifax stations, with inconsistent correlation variations based on selected cities and lag time. Various parametric 2-D copulas were selected to model the dependence structure of bivariate pairs at different time lags for selected stations. AMWGS or AHMT events, when considered independently, would be stressful for all stations due to high estimated quantiles with low univariate RPs. The bivariate events exhibited lower AND-joint RPs with moderate to high design quantiles, indicating a higher risk of power blackouts and heightened air-conditioning demands, which varied inconsistently with time lags across the station. The bivariate AMWGS and corresponding MT events would be stressful in Regina, Quebec City, Ottawa, and Edmonton, while AHMT and corresponding WGS events in Toronto, Regina, and Montreal. Conversely, Vancouver poses a lower risk of joint action of pairs AHMT and corresponding WGS events. These hazard statistics can help in better planning for community well-being during extreme weather.

Effects of Coexposure to Air Pollution from Vegetation Fires and Extreme Heat on Mortality in Upper Northern Thailand

Background: understanding the effects of coexposure to compound extreme events, such as air pollution and extreme heat, is important for reducing current and future health burdens. This study investigated the independent and synergistic effects of exposure to air pollution from vegetation fires and extreme heat on all-cause mortality in Upper Northern Thailand. Methods: we used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with a conditional quasi-Poisson model to examine the association between mortality and coexposure to air pollution due to vegetation fire events (fire-PM2.5) and extreme heat. Extreme heat days were defined using the 90th and 99th percentile thresholds for daily maximum temperature. Results: we observed a significant positive excess risk of mortality due to independent exposure to fire-PM2.5 and extreme heat, but not an interactive effect. All-cause mortality risk increased by 0.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 1.8) for each 10 μg/m3 increase in fire-PM2.5 on the same day and by 12.8% (95% CI: 10.5, 15.1) on extreme heat days (90th percentile) relative to nonextreme heat days. Conclusion: this study showed that exposure to PM2.5 from vegetation fires and extreme heat independently increased all-cause mortality risk in UNT. However, there was no evidence of a synergistic effect of these events.

Multimorbidity and emergency hospitalisations during hot weather

BACKGROUND

People with chronic diseases are a commonly listed heat-vulnerable group in heat-health action plans. While prior research identifies multiple health conditions that may increase vulnerability to ambient heat, there is minimal evidence regarding the implications of multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases).

METHODS

From the statewide hospital registry of Queensland, Australia, we identified people aged ≥15 years who had emergency hospitalisation(s) between March 2004 and April 2016 and previously had 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 of five chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders, asthma/COPD, and chronic kidney disease. We conducted time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the odds ratio of hospitalisations associated with ambient heat exposure in people with different numbers, types, and combinations of chronic diseases. Ambient heat exposure was defined as a 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature above the median.

FINDINGS

There were 2,263,427 emergency hospitalisations recorded (48.7% in males and 51.3% in females). When the mean temperature increased, hospitalisation odds increased with chronic disease number, particularly in older persons (≥65 years), males, and non-indigenous people. For instance, in older persons with 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 chronic diseases, the odds ratios associated with ambient heat exposure were 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04), 1.06 (1.02, 1.09), 1.08 (1.02, 1.14), and 1.13 (1.07, 1.19), respectively. Among the chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease, and asthma/COPD, either existing alone, together, or in combination with other diseases, were associated with the highest odds of hospitalisations under ambient heat exposure.

INTERPRETATION

While individuals with multimorbidity are considered in heat-health action plans, this study suggests the need to consider specifically examining them as a distinct and vulnerable subgroup.

FUNDING

Wellcome.

A case report on the physiological responses to extreme heat during Sicily's July 2023 heatwave

July 2023 has been confirmed as Earth's hottest month on record, and it was characterized by extraordinary heatwaves across southern Europe. Field data collected under real heatwave periods could add important evidence to understand human adaptability to extreme heat. However, field studies on human physiological responses to heatwave periods remain limited. We performed field thermo-physiological measurements in a healthy 37-years male undergoing resting and physical activity in an outdoor environment in the capital of Sicily, Palermo, during (July 21; highest level of local heat-health alert) and following (August 10; lowest level of local heat-health alert) the peak of Sicily's July 2023 heatwave. Results indicated that ~40 min of outdoor walking and light running in 33.8°C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) conditions (July 21) resulted in significant physiological stress (i.e., peak heart rate: 209 bpm; core temperature: 39.13°C; mean skin temperature: 37.2°C; whole-body sweat losses: 1.7 kg). Importantly, significant physiological stress was also observed during less severe heat conditions (August 10; WBGT: 29.1°C; peak heart rate: 190 bpm; core temperature: 38.48°C; whole-body sweat losses: 2 kg). These observations highlight the physiological strain that current heatwave conditions pose on healthy young individuals. This ecologically-valid empirical evidence could inform more accurate heat-health planning.

Association of Psychiatric Emergency Visits and Warm Ambient Temperature during Pregnancy: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Study

BACKGROUND

Acute exposure to high ambient temperature and heat waves during the warm season has been linked with psychiatric disorders. Emerging research has shown that pregnant people, due to physiological and psychological changes, may be more sensitive to extreme heat, and acute exposure has been linked to increased risk of pregnancy complications; however, few studies have examined psychiatric complications.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to examine the association between acute exposure to warm ambient temperatures and emergency department (ED) visits for mental disorders during pregnancy.

METHODS

A time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was performed on ∼ 206,000 psychiatric ED visits for pregnant patients in North Carolina, from May to September 2016 to 2019. Daily average ambient temperature was the main exposure and was linked to daily visits by maternal zip code of residence for prenatal mood and anxiety disorders (PMAD), severe mental illness (SMI), mental disorder of pregnancy (MDP), suicidal thoughts (SUIC), and any psychiatric disorder (Any). Effect modification by trimester, residential segregation, economic segregation, urbanicity, and availability of greenspace was also investigated.

RESULTS

Each 5 ° C increase in same-day exposure to warm ambient temperature on case days was associated with an increase in incidence rate ratio (IRR) for any psychiatric disorder [IRR = 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.14] including anxiety (IRR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.30), bipolar disorder (IRR = 1.28; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.67), and suicidal thoughts (IRR = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.65) compared to control days. In general, the associations were strongest for warm season temperatures on the same day of exposure or for temperatures averaged over the 3 or 6 d preceding the ED visit. The greatest risk of an incident ED admission for PMAD (RR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.39), particularly for anxiety (RR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.59), and any psychiatric disorder (RR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.28) occurred following cumulative exposure to hot temperatures the week before admission. Higher psychiatric burden from temperature was observed in urban areas and on extreme heat days.

CONCLUSIONS

For this pregnant population in the southeastern United States, short-term exposure to high ambient temperatures during the warm season was associated with a greater risk of ED visits for an array of psychiatric disorders. Findings show that climate-related increases in ambient temperature may contribute to psychiatric morbidity in pregnant people. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13293.

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

Heat Exposure and Cause-Specific Hospital Admissions in Spain: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

More frequent and intense exposure to extreme heat conditions poses a serious threat to public health. However, evidence on the association between heat and specific diagnoses of morbidity is still limited. We aimed to comprehensively assess the short-term association between cause-specific hospital admissions and high temperature, including the added effect of temperature variability and heat waves and the effect modification by humidity and air pollution.

METHODS

We used data on cause-specific hospital admissions, weather (i.e., temperature and relative humidity), and air pollution [i.e., fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ), fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μ m (PM 10 ), NO 2 , and ozone (O 3 )] for 48 provinces in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2019. The statistical analysis was performed for the summer season (June-September) and consisted of two steps. We first applied quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression models in combination with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to estimate province-specific temperature-morbidity associations, which were then pooled through multilevel univariate/multivariate random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

High temperature had a generalized impact on cause-specific hospitalizations, while the added effect of temperature variability [i.e., diurnal temperature range (DTR)] and heat waves was limited to a reduced number of diagnoses. The strongest impact of heat was observed for metabolic disorders and obesity [relative risk (RR) = 1.978; 95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 1.772, 2.208], followed by renal failure (1.777; 95% eCI: 1.629, 1.939), urinary tract infection (1.746; 95% eCI: 1.578, 1.933), sepsis (1.543; 95% eCI: 1.387, 1.718), urolithiasis (1.490; 95% eCI: 1.338, 1.658), and poisoning by drugs and nonmedicinal substances (1.470; 95% eCI: 1.298, 1.665). We also found differences by sex (depending on the diagnosis of hospitalization) and age (very young children and the elderly were more at risk). Humidity played a role in the association of heat with hospitalizations from acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis and diseases of the muscular system and connective tissue, which were higher in dry days. Moreover, heat-related effects were exacerbated on high pollution days for metabolic disorders and obesity (PM 2.5 ) and diabetes (PM 10 , O 3 ).

DISCUSSION

Short-term exposure to heat was found to be associated with new diagnoses (e.g., metabolic diseases and obesity, blood diseases, acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis, muscular and connective tissue diseases, poisoning by drugs and nonmedicinal substances, complications of surgical and medical care, and symptoms, signs, and ill-defined conditions) and previously identified diagnoses of hospital admissions. The characterization of the vulnerability to heat can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce the health risks posed by a warming planet. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13254.

Thermal stress and hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory disease in Brazil

The growing body of scientific literature underscores the intricate relationship between meteorological conditions and human health, particularly in the context of extreme temperatures. However, conventional temperature-centric approaches often fall short in capturing the complexity of thermal stress experienced by individuals. Temperature alone, as a metric, fails to encompass the entirety of the thermal stress individuals face, necessitating a more nuanced understanding. In response to this limitation, climatologists have devised thermal indices-composite measures meticulously crafted to reflect the intricate interplay of meteorological factors influencing human perception of temperature. Recognizing the inadequacy of simplistic temperature-focused methodologies, our study aims to address the multifaceted nature of thermal stress. In this study, we explored the association between thermal indices and hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory diseases in Brazil. We used an extensive dataset spanning 11 years (2008-2018) from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, encompassing a total of 23,791,093 hospitalizations for circulatory and respiratory diseases. We considered four distinct thermal indices-Discomfort Index (DI), Net Effective Temperature (NET), Humidex (H), and Heat Index (HI). We used an extension of the two-stage design with a case time series to assess this relationship. In the first stage, we applied a distributed lag non-linear modeling framework to create a cross-basis function. We next applied quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted by time-varying confounders. In the second stage, we applied meta-analysis with random effects to estimate the national relative risk (RR). Our findings suggest robust variations among the thermal indices under examination. These variations underscore the intricate nature of associations between temperature and health, with each index capturing distinct aspects of thermal conditions. Our results indicate that extreme thermal conditions, both at the low and high ends, are associated with increased risks of hospital admissions. The diverse impact observed among different indices emphasizes the complex interplay between various meteorological factors and their specific physiological consequences. This underscores the necessity for a comprehensive comprehension of temperature metrics to guide precise public health interventions, recognizing the multifaceted nature of temperature-health relationships.

The impact of climate change and related extreme weather on people with limb loss

The human health consequences of climate change and extreme weather events are well documented. Published literature details the unique effects and necessary adaptation planning for people with physical disabilities in general; however, the specific impacts and plans for people with limb loss have yet to be explored. In this article, we discuss the impacts related to threats due to heat, cold, severe storms, and power outages. We describe how climate change uniquely affects people with limb loss and underscore the need for rehabilitation care providers and researchers to: (1) study the health impacts of climate change on people with lower limb loss; (2) educate themselves and patients on the climate crisis and climate preparedness; (3) co-develop resiliency strategies with patients, governments, and community organizations to improve adaptive capacity; and (4) advocate for policy changes that will enact protections for this at-risk population.

Impact of cash transfers on the association between prenatal exposures to high temperatures and low birthweight: Retrospective analysis from the LEAP 1000 study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the associations between prenatal temperature exposures and low birthweight (LBW) and modification by cash transfer (CT) receipt.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five rural districts in Northern Ghana.

POPULATION OR SAMPLE

A total of 3016 infants born to women interviewed as part of the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP 1000) impact evaluation between 2015 and 2017.

METHODS

Birthweight was collected using household surveys administered to LEAP 1000 eligible women. We used a UNICEF-developed multiple imputation approach to address missingness of birthweight and applied an empirical heaping correction to the multiply imputed birthweight data. Survey data were linked to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-hourly temperature averaged to weeks for 2011-2017 using community centroids. Using distributed-lag nonlinear models, we explored the lag-specific associations between weekly average temperatures greater than 30°C and LBW, and stratified by LEAP 1000 treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Low birthweight (<2.5 kg).

RESULTS

Twelve percent (n = 365) of infants were LBW; the mean ± SD birthweight was 3.02 ± 0.37 kg. Overall, increasing temperatures were associated with increased odds of LBW, with the greatest odds observed in the 3 weeks before birth (odds ratio 1.005-1.025). These positive associations were even larger among comparison infants and null among treatment infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found increased odds of LBW with high weekly average temperatures throughout pregnancy and the preconception period and demonstrate mitigated effects by the LEAP 1000 CT program. More evidence on the potential of CTs to serve as adaptation interventions in low- and middle-income countries is needed to protect pregnant persons and their infants from the impacts of climate change.

Association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches in Japan: A nationwide case-crossover study

Background

Although the effects of temperature on genitourinary morbidity and mortality have been investigated in several countries, it remains largely unexplored in Japan. We investigated the association between ambient temperature and genitourinary emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) in Japan and the modifying roles of sex, age, and illness severity.

Methods

We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the association between mean temperature and genitourinary EADs in all prefectures of Japan between 2015 and 2019. A mixed-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the association at the country level. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore differences in associations stratified by sex, age, and illness severity.

Results

We found an increased risk of genitourinary EAD associated with higher temperatures. The cumulative relative risk (RR) at the 99th temperature percentile compared with that at the 1st percentile was 1.74 (95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.60, 1.89]). We observed higher heat-related RRs in males (RR = 1.89; 95% CI = [1.73, 2.07]) than females (RR = 1.56; 95% CI = [1.37, 1.76]), and in the younger (RR = 2.13; 95% CI = [1.86, 2.45]) than elderly (RR = 1.39; 95% CI = [1.22, 1.58]). We found a significant association for those with mild or moderate cases (RR = 1.77; 95% CI = [1.62, 1.93]), but not for severe or life-threatening cases (RR = 1.20; 95% CI = [0.80, 1.82]).

Conclusion

Our study revealed heat effects on genitourinary EADs in Japan. Men, youth, and mild-moderate illnesses were particularly vulnerable subgroups. These findings underscore the need for preventative measures aimed at mitigating the impact of temperature on genitourinary emergencies.

Female thermal sensitivity and behaviour across the lifespan: A unique journey

Women are a group of individuals that undergo unique anatomical, physiological and hormonal changes across the lifespan. For example, consider the impact of the menstrual cycle, pregnancy and menopause, all of which are accompanied by both short- and long-term effects on female body morphology (e.g., changes in breast size) and temperature regulation, heat tolerance, thermal sensitivity and comfort. However, empirical evidence on how skin thermal and wetness sensitivity might change across the lifespan of women, and the implications that this has for female-specific thermal behaviours, continues to be lacking. This paper is based on a symposium presentation given at Physiology 2023 in Harrogate, UK. It aims to review new evidence on anatomical and physiological mechanisms underpinning differences in skin thermal and wetness sensitivity amongst women varying in breast size and age, in addition to their role in driving female thermal behaviours. It is hoped that this brief overview will stimulate the development of testable hypotheses to increase our understanding of the behavioural thermal physiology of women across the lifespan and at a time of climate change.

Vulnerability assessment of heat waves within a risk framework using artificial intelligence

Current efforts to adapt to climate change are not sufficient to reduce projected impacts. Vulnerability assessments are essential to allocate resources where they are needed most. However, current assessments that use principal component analysis suffer from multiple shortcomings and are hard to translate into concrete actions. To address these issues, this article proposes a novel data-driven vulnerability assessment within a risk framework. The framework is based on the definitions from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but some definitions, such as sensitivity and adaptive capacity, are clarified. Heat waves that occurred between 2001 and 2018 in Quebec (Canada) are used to validate the framework. The studied impact is the daily mortality rates per cooling degree-days (CDD) region. A vulnerability map is produced to identify the distributions of summer mortality rates in aggregate dissemination areas within each CDD region. Socioeconomic and environmental variables are used to calculate impact and vulnerability. We compared abilities of AutoGluon (an AutoML framework), Gaussian process, and deep Gaussian process to model the impact and vulnerability. We offer advice on how to avoid common pitfalls with artificial intelligence and machine-learning algorithms. Gaussian process is a promising approach for supporting the proposed framework. SHAP values provide an explanation for the model results and are consistent with current knowledge of vulnerability. Recommendations are made to implement the proposed framework quantitatively or qualitatively.

Effects of Daylong Exposure to Indoor Overheating on Thermal and Cardiovascular Strain in Older Adults: A Randomized Crossover Trial

BACKGROUND

Health agencies recommend that homes of heat-vulnerable occupants (e.g., older adults) be maintained below 24-28°C to prevent heat-related mortality and morbidity. However, there is limited experimental evidence to support these recommendations.

OBJECTIVE

To aid in the development of evidence-based guidance on safe indoor temperatures for temperate continental climates, we evaluated surrogate physiological outcomes linked with heat-related mortality and morbidity in older adults during simulated indoor overheating.

METHODS

Sixteen older adults [six women; median age: 72 y, interquartile range (IQR): 70-73 y; body mass index: 24.6   ( IQR :   22.1 - 27.0 )   kg / m 2 ] from the Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, region (warm summer continental climate) completed four randomized, 8-h exposures to conditions experienced indoors during hot weather in continental climates (e.g., Ontario, Canada; 64 participant exposures). Ambient conditions simulated an air-conditioned environment (22°C; control), proposed indoor temperature upper limits (26°C), and temperatures experienced in homes without air-conditioning (31°C and 36°C). Core temperature (rectal) was monitored as the primary outcome; based on previous recommendations, between-condition differences > 0.3 ° C were considered clinically meaningful.

RESULTS

Compared with 22°C, core temperature was elevated to a meaningful extent in 31°C [+ 0 . 7 ° C ; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5, 0.8] and 36°C (+ 0 . 9 ° C ; 95% CI: 0.8, 1.1), but not 26°C (+ 0 . 2 ° C , 95% CI: 0.0, 0.3). Increasing ambient temperatures were also associated with elevated heart rate and reduced arterial blood pressure and heart rate variability at rest, as well as progressive impairments in cardiac and blood pressure responses to standing from supine.

DISCUSSION

Core temperature and cardiovascular strain were not appreciably altered following 8-h exposure to 26°C but increased progressively in conditions above this threshold. These data support proposals for the establishment of a 26°C indoor temperature upper limit for protecting vulnerable occupants residing in temperate continental climates from indoor overheating. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13159.

Spatial contrasts and temporal changes in fine-scale heat exposure and vulnerability in the Paris region

Heat is identified as a key climate risk in Europe. Vulnerability to heat can be aggravated by enhanced exposure (e.g., urban heat island), individual susceptibility (e.g., age, income), and adaptive capacity (e.g., home ownership, presence of vegetation). We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of the environmental and social drivers of vulnerability to heat in the Paris region, France, over the 2000-2020 period, and their association with mortality (restricted to 2000-2017). Daily temperatures were modeled for the 5265 IRIS of the Paris region for 2000-2020. Annual land use and socioeconomic data were collected for each IRIS. They were used to identify a priori five classes of heat-vulnerable areas based on a cluster analysis. The temperature-mortality relationship was investigated using a time-series approach stratified by clusters of vulnerability. The Paris region exhibited a strong urban heat island effect, with a marked shift in temperature distributions after 2015. The clustering suggested that the most heat-vulnerable IRIS in the Paris region have a high or very high exposure to temperature in a highly urbanized environment with little vegetation, but are not systematically associated with social deprivation. A similar J-shape temperature-mortality relationship was observed in the five clusters. Between 2000 and 2017, around 8000 deaths were attributable to heat, 5600 of which were observed in the most vulnerable clusters. Vulnerability assessments based on geographical indicators are key tools for urban planners and decision-makers. They complement the knowledge about individual risk factors but should be further evaluated through interdisciplinary collaborations.

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States

Climate change is escalating the threat of heat stress to global public health, with the majority of humans today facing increasingly severe and prolonged heat waves. Accurate weather data reflecting the complexity of measuring heat stress is crucial for reducing the impact of extreme heat on health worldwide. Previous studies have employed Heat Index (HI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metrics to understand extreme heat exposure, forming the basis for heat stress guidelines. However, systematic comparisons of meteorological and climate data sets used for these metrics and the related parameters, like air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation crucial for human thermoregulation, are lacking. We compared three heat measures (HImax, WBGTBernard, and WBGTLiljegren) approximated from gridded weather data sets (ERA5-Land, PRISM, Daymet) with ground-based data, revealing strong agreement from HI and WBGTBernard (R 2 0.76-0.95, RMSE 1.69-6.64°C). Discrepancies varied by Köppen-Geiger climates (e.g., Adjusted R 2 HImax 0.88-0.95, WBGTBernard 0.79-0.97, and WBGTLiljegren 0.80-0.96), and metrological input variables (Adjusted R 2 T max 0.86-0.94, T min 0.91-0.94, Wind 0.33, Solarmax 0.38, Solaravg 0.38, relative humidity 0.51-0.74). Gridded data sets can offer reliable heat exposure assessment, but further research and local networks are vital to reduce measurement errors to fully enhance our understanding of how heat stress measures link to health outcomes.

Nationwide Geospatial Analysis to Identify Variations in Primary Cardiovascular Risk in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) varies across regions due to socioeconomic, cultural, lifestyle, healthcare access, and environmental factors.

OBJECTIVE

To find geographical variations in 10-year primary CVD risk and assess the impact of contextual factors on CVD risk.

METHOD

Data from 2658 Ethiopians aged 40 to 69 years with no previous CVD who participated in a nationally representative World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS survey in 2015 were included in the analysis. The mean 10-year CVD risk for 450 enumeration areas (EA) was used to identify spatial autocorrelation (using Global Moran's I) and CVD hot spots (using getas-Ord Gi*). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis quantified the relationship between mean 10-year CVD risk and climate-related factors across areas.

RESULT

The spatial autocorrelation analysis identified significant spatial variation in the 10-year CVD risk at the EA level, with a global Moran's I value of 0.016. Statistically significant hot spot areas with 10-year CVD risk were identified in Addis Ababa (the capital), Benishangul Gumuz, SNNPR (Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region), Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and Hareri regions. In a multivariable GWR analysis, average water vapor pressure was a statistically significant explanatory variable for the geographical variations in 10-year CVD risk.

CONCLUSION

Hot spot areas for 10-year CVD risk were identified across numerous country regions rather than concentrated in a specific region. Alongside these hot spot areas, regions with a higher annual water vapor pressure (humidity) were identified as geographical targets for CVD prevention.

Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics

Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.

A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8-34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9-33.7 °C (old)-0.9-13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2-13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5-3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.

A century of exercise physiology: concepts that ignited the study of human thermoregulation. Part 1: Foundational principles and theories of regulation

This contribution is the first of a four-part, historical series encompassing foundational principles, mechanistic hypotheses and supported facts concerning human thermoregulation during athletic and occupational pursuits, as understood 100 years ago and now. Herein, the emphasis is upon the physical and physiological principles underlying thermoregulation, the goal of which is thermal homeostasis (homeothermy). As one of many homeostatic processes affected by exercise, thermoregulation shares, and competes for, physiological resources. The impact of that sharing is revealed through the physiological measurements that we take (Part 2), in the physiological responses to the thermal stresses to which we are exposed (Part 3) and in the adaptations that increase our tolerance to those stresses (Part 4). Exercising muscles impose our most-powerful heat stress, and the physiological avenues for redistributing heat, and for balancing heat exchange with the environment, must adhere to the laws of physics. The first principles of internal and external heat exchange were established before 1900, yet their full significance is not always recognised. Those physiological processes are governed by a thermoregulatory centre, which employs feedback and feedforward control, and which functions as far more than a thermostat with a set-point, as once was thought. The hypothalamus, today established firmly as the neural seat of thermoregulation, does not regulate deep-body temperature alone, but an integrated temperature to which thermoreceptors from all over the body contribute, including the skin and probably the muscles. No work factor needs to be invoked to explain how body temperature is stabilised during exercise.

Long-term exposure to summer specific humidity and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in the US Medicare population

INTRODUCTION

Most climate-health studies focus on temperature; however, less is known about health effects of exposure to atmospheric moisture. Humid air limits sweat evaporation from the body and can in turn exert strain on the cardiovascular system. We evaluated associations of long-term exposure to summer specific humidity with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBV) hospitalization.

METHODS

We built an open cohort consisting of ∼63 million fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged ≥65, living in the contiguous US (2000-2016). We assessed zip code level summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability, based on daily estimates from the Gridded Surface Meteorological dataset (∼4km spatial resolution). To estimate associations of summer specific humidity with first CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization, we used Cox-equivalent Poisson models adjusted for individual and area-level socioeconomic status indicators, temperature, and winter specific humidity.

RESULTS

Higher summer average specific humidity was associated with an increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. We found hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CVD hospitalization, 1.08 (95%CI: 1.08, 1.09) for CHD hospitalization, and 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CBV hospitalization per IQR increase (4.0 g of water vapor/kg of dry air) in summer average specific humidity. Associations of summer average specific humidity were strongest for beneficiaries eligible for Medicaid and for beneficiaries with an unknown or other race. Higher summer specific humidity variability was also associated with increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. Associations were not affected by adjustment for temperature and regions of the US, as well as exclusion of potentially prevalent cases.

CONCLUSION

Long-term exposure to higher summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability were positively associated with CVD hospitalization. As global warming could increase humidity levels, our findings are important to assess potential health impacts of climate change.