On cross-ancestry cancer polygenic risk scores

Assessing the Risk Stratification of Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in a Brazilian Cohort

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer have a clear clinical utility in risk prediction. PRS transferability across populations and ancestry groups is hampered by population-specific factors, ultimately leading to differences in variant effects, such as linkage disequilibrium and differences in variant frequency (allele frequency differences). Thus, locally sourced population-based phenotypic and genomic data sets are essential to assess the validity of PRSs derived from signals detected across populations. This study assesses the transferability of a breast cancer PRS composed of 313 risk variants (313-PRS) in a Brazilian trihybrid admixed ancestries (European, African, and Native American) whole-genome sequenced cohort, the Rare Genomes Project. 313-PRS was computed in the Rare Genomes Project (n = 853) using the UK Biobank (UKBB; n = 264,307) as reference. The Brazilian cohorts have a high European ancestry (EA) component, with allele frequency differences and to a lesser extent linkage disequilibrium patterns similar to those found in EA populations. The 313-PRS distribution was found to be inflated when compared with that of the UKBB, leading to potential overestimation of PRS-based risk if EA is taken as a standard. However, case controls lead to equivalent predictive power when compared with UKBB-EA samples with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.66 to 0.62 compared with 0.63 for UKBB.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to Africans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of depression PRS trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict major depressive disorder (MDD) and related traits in African ancestry participants from the UK Biobank. UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population, MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). PRS were computed using PRSice2 software using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics. PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (R2 = 2%, β = 0.32, empirical p-value = 0.002) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R² = 1.8%, β = 0.28, empirical p-value = 0.008). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency relative to discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of likely causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant. GWAS of MDD in European ancestries are inefficient for improving polygenic prediction in African samples; urgent MDD studies in Africa are needed.

Genome-wide analysis in over 1 million individuals of European ancestry yields improved polygenic risk scores for blood pressure traits

Hypertension affects more than one billion people worldwide. Here we identify 113 novel loci, reporting a total of 2,103 independent genetic signals (P < 5 × 10-8) from the largest single-stage blood pressure (BP) genome-wide association study to date (n = 1,028,980 European individuals). These associations explain more than 60% of single nucleotide polymorphism-based BP heritability. Comparing top versus bottom deciles of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) reveals clinically meaningful differences in BP (16.9 mmHg systolic BP, 95% CI, 15.5-18.2 mmHg, P = 2.22 × 10-126) and more than a sevenfold higher odds of hypertension risk (odds ratio, 7.33; 95% CI, 5.54-9.70; P = 4.13 × 10-44) in an independent dataset. Adding PRS into hypertension-prediction models increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) from 0.791 (95% CI, 0.781-0.801) to 0.826 (95% CI, 0.817-0.836, ∆AUROC, 0.035, P = 1.98 × 10-34). We compare the 2,103 loci results in non-European ancestries and show significant PRS associations in a large African-American sample. Secondary analyses implicate 500 genes previously unreported for BP. Our study highlights the role of increasingly large genomic studies for precision health research.

A polygenetic risk score combined with environmental factors better predict susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population

AIMS

This study aimed to investigate environmental factors and genetic variant loci associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Chinese population and construct a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) and polygenic risk score (PRS).

METHODS

A case-control study was applied to confirm the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and environmental variables linked to HCC in the Chinese population, which had been screened by meta-analyses. wGRS and PRS were built in training sets and validation sets. Area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were applied to evaluate the performance of the models.

RESULTS

A total of 13 SNPs were included in both risk prediction models. Compared with wGRS, PRS had better accuracy and discrimination ability in predicting HCC risk. The AUC for PRS in combination with drinking history, cirrhosis, HBV infection, and family history of HCC in training sets and validation sets (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.84-0.89; AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) increased at least 20% than the AUC for PRS alone (AUC: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.60-0.67; AUC: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.60-0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

A novel model combining PRS with alcohol history, HBV infection, cirrhosis, and family history of HCC could be applied as an effective tool for risk prediction of HCC, which could discriminate at-risk individuals for precise prevention.

Improving prediction models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using polygenic, pre-existing conditions, and survey-based risk scores in the UK Biobank

Background and Objectives

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) causes profound impairments in neurological function and a cure for this devastating disease remains elusive. Early detection and risk stratification are crucial for timely intervention and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify predisposing genetic, phenotypic, and exposure-related factors for Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using multi-modal data and assess their joint predictive potential.

Methods

Utilizing data from the UK Biobank, we analyzed an unrelated set of 292 ALS cases and 408,831 controls of European descent. Two polygenic risk scores (PRS) are constructed: "GWAS Hits PRS" and "PRS-CS," reflecting oligogenic and polygenic ALS risk profiles, respectively. Time-restricted phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were performed to identify pre-existing conditions increasing ALS risk, integrated into phenotypic risk scores (PheRS). A poly-exposure score ("PXS") captures the influence of environmental exposures measured through survey questionnaires. We evaluate the performance of these scores for predicting ALS incidence and stratifying risk, adjusting for baseline demographic covariates.

Results

Both PRSs modestly predicted ALS diagnosis, but with increased predictive power when combined (covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic [AAUC] = 0.584 [0.525, 0.639]). PheRS incorporated diagnoses 1 year before ALS onset (PheRS1) modestly discriminated cases from controls (AAUC = 0.515 [0.472, 0.564]). The "PXS" did not significantly predict ALS. However, a model incorporating PRSs and PheRS1 improved prediction of ALS (AAUC = 0.604 [0.547, 0.667]), outperforming a model combining all risk scores. This combined risk score identified the top 10% of risk score distribution with a 4-fold higher ALS risk (95% CI: [2.04, 7.73]) versus those in the 40%-60% range.

Discussions

By leveraging UK Biobank data, our study uncovers predisposing ALS factors, highlighting the improved effectiveness of multi-factorial prediction models to identify individuals at highest risk for ALS.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Polygenic prediction of major depressive disorder and related traits in African ancestries UK Biobank participants

Introduction

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) over-represent European ancestries compared to the global population, neglecting all other ancestry groups and low-income nations. Consequently, polygenic risk scores (PRS) more accurately predict complex traits in Europeans than African Ancestries groups. Very few studies have looked at the transferability of European-derived PRS for behavioural and mental health phenotypes to non-Europeans. We assessed the comparative accuracy of PRS for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) trained on European and African Ancestries GWAS studies to predict MDD and related traits in African Ancestries participants from the UK Biobank.

Methods

UK Biobank participants were selected based on Principal component analysis (PCA) clustering with an African genetic similarity reference population and MDD was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) were computed using PRSice2 using either European or African Ancestries GWAS summary statistics.

Results

PRS trained on European ancestry samples (246,363 cases) predicted case control status in Africans of the UK Biobank with similar accuracies (190 cases, R2=2%) to PRS trained on far much smaller samples of African Ancestries participants from 23andMe, Inc. (5045 cases, R2=1.8%). This suggests that prediction of MDD status from Africans to Africans had greater efficiency per unit increase in the discovery sample size than prediction of MDD from Europeans to Africans. Prediction of MDD status in African UK Biobank participants using GWAS findings of causal risk factors from European ancestries was non-significant.

Conclusion

GWAS studies of MDD in European ancestries are an inefficient means of improving polygenic prediction accuracy in African samples.

Assessing the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk using polygenic and clinical risk scores in South Asian study populations

Background

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown high specificity and sensitivity in predicting type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk in Europeans. However, the PRS-driven information and its clinical significance in non-Europeans are underrepresented. We examined the predictive efficacy and transferability of PRS models using variant information derived from genome-wide studies of Asian Indians (AIs) (PRSAI) and Europeans (PRSEU) using 13,974 AI individuals.

Methods

Weighted PRS models were constructed and analyzed on 4602 individuals from the Asian Indian Diabetes Heart Study/Sikh Diabetes Study (AIDHS/SDS) as discovery/training and test/validation datasets. The results were further replicated in 9372 South Asian individuals from UK Biobank (UKBB). We also assessed the performance of each PRS model by combining data of the clinical risk score (CRS).

Results

Both genetic models (PRSAI and PRSEU) successfully predicted the T2D risk. However, the PRSAI revealed 13.2% odds ratio (OR) 1.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.63-1.97; p = 1.6 × 10-152] and 12.2% OR 1.38 (95% CI 1.30-1.46; p = 7.1 × 10-237) superior performance in AIDHS/SDS and UKBB validation sets, respectively. Comparing individuals of extreme PRS (ninth decile) with the average PRS (fifth decile), PRSAI showed about two-fold OR 20.73 (95% CI 10.27-41.83; p = 2.7 × 10-17) and 1.4-fold OR 3.19 (95% CI 2.51-4.06; p = 4.8 × 10-21) higher predictability to identify subgroups with higher genetic risk than the PRSEU. Combining PRS and CRS improved the area under the curve from 0.74 to 0.79 in PRSAI and 0.72 to 0.75 in PRSEU.

Conclusion

Our data suggest the need for extending genetic and clinical studies in varied ethnic groups to exploit the full clinical potential of PRS as a risk prediction tool in diverse study populations.

Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks

OBJECTIVE

To overcome the limitations associated with the collection and curation of COVID-19 outcome data in biobanks, this study proposes the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as reliable proxies of COVID-19 severity across three large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), UK Biobank (UKB), and NIH All of Us. The goal is to identify associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 severity.

METHODS

Drawing on a sample of more than 500,000 individuals from the three biobanks, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify associations between a PRS for COVID-19 severity, derived from a genome-wide association study on COVID-19 hospitalization, and clinical pre-existing, pre-pandemic phenotypes. We performed cohort-specific PRS PheWAS and a subsequent fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

The current study uncovered 23 pre-existing conditions significantly associated with the COVID-19 severity PRS in cohort-specific analyses, of which 21 were observed in the UKB cohort and two in the MGI cohort. The meta-analysis yielded 27 significant phenotypes predominantly related to obesity, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular conditions. After adjusting for body mass index, several clinical phenotypes, such as hypercholesterolemia and gastrointestinal disorders, remained associated with an increased risk of hospitalization following COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSION

By employing PRS as a proxy for COVID-19 severity, we corroborated known risk factors and identified novel associations between pre-existing clinical phenotypes and COVID-19 severity. Our study highlights the potential value of using PRS when actual outcome data may be limited or inadequate for robust analyses.

Evaluation of optimal methods and ancestries for calculating polygenic risk scores in East Asian population

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been studied for predicting human diseases, and various methods for PRS calculation have been developed. Most PRS studies to date have focused on European ancestry, and the performance of PRS has not been sufficiently assessed in East Asia. Herein, we evaluated the predictive performance of PRSs for East Asian populations under various conditions. Simulation studies using data from the Korean cohort, Health Examinees (HEXA), demonstrated that SBayesRC and PRS-CS outperformed other PRS methods (lassosum, LDpred-funct, and PRSice) in high fixed heritability (0.3 and 0.7). In addition, we generated PRSs using real-world data from HEXA for ten diseases: asthma, breast cancer, cataract, coronary artery disease, gastric cancer, glaucoma, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, osteoporosis, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We utilized the five previous PRS methods and genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from two biobank-scale datasets [European (UK Biobank) and East Asian (BioBank Japan) ancestry]. Additionally, we employed PRS-CSx, a PRS method that combines GWAS data from both ancestries, to generate a total of 110 PRS for ten diseases. Similar to the simulation results, SBayesRC showed better predictive performance for disease risk than the other methods. Furthermore, the East Asian GWAS data outperformed those from European ancestry for breast cancer, cataract, gastric cancer, and T2D, but neither of the two GWAS ancestries showed a significant advantage on PRS performance for the remaining six diseases. Based on simulation data and real data studies, it is expected that SBayesRC will offer superior performance for East Asian populations, and PRS generated using GWAS from non-East Asian may also yield good results.

Ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores are risk enhancers for clinical cardiovascular disease assessments

Clinical implementation of new prediction models requires evaluation of their utility in a broad range of intended use populations. Here we develop and validate ancestry-specific Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) using 29,389 individuals from diverse cohorts and genetic ancestry groups. The CAD PRSs outperform published scores with an average Odds Ratio per Standard Deviation of 1.57 (SD = 0.14) and identify between 12% and 24% of individuals with high genetic risk. Using this risk factor to reclassify borderline or intermediate 10 year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk improves assessments for both CAD (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) = 13.14% (95% CI 9.23-17.06%)) and ASCVD (NRI = 10.70 (95% CI 7.35-14.05)) in an independent cohort of 9,691 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that using PRSs as Risk Enhancers improves ASCVD risk assessments outlining an approach for guiding ASCVD prevention with genetic information.

Assessments of dietary intake and polygenic risk score in associations with colorectal cancer risk: evidence from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore the potential interaction between dietary intake and genetics on incident colorectal cancer (CRC) and whether adherence to healthy dietary habits could attenuate CRC risk in individuals at high genetic risk.

METHODS

We analyzed prospective cohort data of 374,004 participants who were free of any cancers at enrollment in UK Biobank. Dietary scores were created based on three dietary recommendations of the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the overall effects of 11 foods on CRC risks using the inverse-variance (IV) method. Genetic risk was assessed using a polygenic risk score (PRS) capturing overall CRC risk. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs (confidence intervals) of associations. Interactions between dietary factors and the PRS were examined using a likelihood ratio test to compare models with and without the interaction term.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.4 years, 4,686 CRC cases were newly diagnosed. Both low adherence to the WCRF recommendations (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.05-1.19) and high IV-weighted dietary scores (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.18-1.37) were associated with CRC risks. The PRS of 98 genetic variants was associated with an increased CRC risk (HRT3vsT1 = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.97-2.29). Participants with both unfavorable dietary habits and a high PRS had a more than twofold increased risk of developing CRC; however, the interaction was not significant. Adherence to an overall healthy diet might attenuate CRC risks in those with high genetic risks (HR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.08-1.35 for high vs. low IV-weighted dietary scores), while adherence to WCRF dietary recommendations showed marginal effects only (HR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00-1.19 for low vs. high WCRF dietary scores).

CONCLUSION

Dietary habits and the PRS were independently associated with CRC risks. Adherence to healthy dietary habits may exert beneficial effects on CRC risk reduction in individuals at high genetic risk.

Early breast cancer risk detection: a novel framework leveraging polygenic risk scores and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death in women; an estimated one in eight women in the USA will develop BC during her lifetime. However, current methods of BC screening, including clinical breast exams, mammograms, biopsies and others, are often underused due to limited access, expense and a lack of risk awareness, causing 30% (up to 80% in low-income and middle-income countries) of patients with BC to miss the precious early detection phase.

METHODS

This study creates a key step to supplement the current BC diagnostic pipeline: a prescreening platform, prior to traditional detection and diagnostic steps. We have developed BREast CAncer Risk Detection Application (BRECARDA), a novel framework that personalises BC risk assessment using artificial intelligence neural networks to incorporate relevant genetic and non-genetic risk factors. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was enhanced by employing AnnoPred and validated by fivefolds cross-validation, outperforming three existing state-of-the-art PRS methods.

RESULTS

We used data from 97 597 female participants of the UK BioBank to train our algorithm. Using the enhanced PRS thus trained together with non-genetic information, BRECARDA was evaluated in a testing dataset with 48 074 UK Biobank female participants and achieved a high accuracy of 94.28% and area under the curve of 0.7861. Our optimised AnnoPred outperformed other state-of-the-art methods on quantifying genetic risk, indicating its potential for supplementing the current BC detection tests, population screening and risk evaluation.

CONCLUSION

BRECARDA can enhance disease risk prediction, identify high-risk individuals for BC screening, facilitate disease diagnosis and improve population-level screening efficiency. It can serve as a valuable and supplemental platform to assist doctors in BC diagnosis and evaluation.

Cis-meQTL for cocaine use-associated DNA methylation in an HIV-positive cohort show pleiotropic effects on multiple traits

BACKGROUND

Cocaine use (CU) is associated with psychiatric and medical diseases. Little is known about the mechanisms of CU-related comorbidities. Findings from preclinical and clinical studies have suggested that CU is associated with aberrant DNA methylation (DNAm) that may be influenced by genetic variants [i.e., methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTLs)]. In this study, we mapped cis-meQTLs for CU-associated DNAm sites (CpGs) in an HIV-positive cohort (Ntotal = 811) and extended the meQTLs to multiple traits.

RESULTS

We conducted cis-meQTL analysis for 224 candidate CpGs selected for their association with CU in blood. We identified 7,101 significant meQTLs [false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05], which mostly mapped to genes involved in immunological functions and were enriched in immune pathways. We followed up the meQTLs using phenome-wide association study and trait enrichment analyses, which revealed 9 significant traits. We tested for causal effects of CU on these 9 traits using Mendelian Randomization and found evidence that CU plays a causal role in increasing hypertension (p-value = 2.35E-08) and decreasing heel bone mineral density (p-value = 1.92E-19).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that genetic variants for CU-associated DNAm have pleiotropic effects on other relevant traits and provide new insights into the causal relationships between cocaine use and these complex traits.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new candidate genes for sickle cell disease nephropathy

Sickle cell disease nephropathy (SCDN), a common SCD complication, is strongly associated with mortality. Polygenic risk scores calculated from recent transethnic meta-analyses of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trended toward association with proteinuria and eGFR in SCD but the model fit was poor (R2 < 0.01), suggesting that there are likely unique genetic risk factors for SCDN. Therefore, we performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 2 critical manifestations of SCDN, proteinuria and decreased eGFR, in 2 well-characterized adult SCD cohorts, representing, to the best of our knowledge, the largest SCDN sample to date. Meta-analysis identified 6 genome-wide significant associations (false discovery rate, q ≤ 0.05): 3 for proteinuria (CRYL1, VWF, and ADAMTS7) and 3 for eGFR (LRP1B, linc02288, and FPGT-TNNI3K/TNNI3K). These associations are independent of APOL1 risk and represent novel SCDN loci, many with evidence for regulatory function. Moreover, GWAS SNPs in CRYL1, VWF, ADAMTS7, and linc02288 are associated with gene expression in kidney and pathways important to both renal function and SCD biology, supporting the hypothesis that SCDN pathophysiology is distinct from other forms of kidney disease. Together, these findings provide new targets for functional follow-up that could be tested prospectively and potentially used to identify patients with SCD who are at risk, before onset of kidney dysfunction.

Racial disparity in the genomics of precision oncology of prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

Significant racial disparities in prostate cancer incidence and mortality have been reported between African American Men (AAM), who are at increased risk for prostate cancer, and European American Men (EAM). In most of the studies carried out on prostate cancer, this population is underrepresented. With the advancement of genome-wide association studies, several genetic predictor models of prostate cancer risk have been elaborated, as well as numerous studies that identify both germline and somatic mutations with clinical utility.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite significant advances, the AAM population continues to be underrepresented in genomic studies, which can limit generalizability and potentially widen disparities. Here we outline racial disparities in currently available genomic applications that are used to estimate the risk of individuals developing prostate cancer and to identify personalized oncology treatment strategies. While the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer are different between AAM and EAM, samples from AAM remain to be unrepresented in different studies.

CONCLUSION

This disparity impacts the available genomic data on prostate cancer. As a result, the disparity can limit the predictive utility of the genomic applications and may lead to the widening of the existing disparities. More studies with substantially higher recruitment and engagement of African American patients are necessary to overcome this disparity.

Epidemiologic Questionnaire (EPI-Q) - a scalable, app-based health survey linked to electronic health record and genotype data

The Epidemiologic Questionnaire (EPI-Q) was established to collect broad, uniform, self-reported health data to supplement electronic health record (EHR) and genotype information from participants in the University of Michigan (UM) Precision Health cohorts. Recruitment of EPI-Q participants, who were already enrolled in 1 of 3 ongoing UM Precision Health cohorts-the Michigan Genomics Initiative, Mental Health Biobank, and Metabolism, Endocrinology, and Diabetes cohorts-began in March 2020. Of 54,043 retrospective invitations, 5,577 individuals enrolled, representing a 10.3% response rate. Of these, 3,502 (63.7%) were female, and the average age was 56.1 years (standard deviation, 15.4). The baseline survey comprises 11 modules on topics including personal and family health history, lifestyle, and cancer screening and history. Additionally, 11 optional modules cover topics including financial toxicity, occupational exposure, and life meaning. The questions are based on standardized and validated instruments used in other cohorts, and we share resources to expedite development of similar surveys. Data are collected via the MyDataHelps platform, which enables current and future participants to share non-Michigan Medicine EHR data. Recruitment is ongoing. Cohort data are available to those with institutional review board approval; for details, contact the Data Office for Clinical and Translational Research (DataOffice@umich.edu).

Assessing the performance of European-derived cardiometabolic polygenic risk scores in South-Asians and their interplay with family history

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to assess the performance of European-derived polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for common metabolic diseases such as coronary artery disease (CAD), obesity, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the South Asian (SAS) individuals in the UK Biobank. Additionally, we studied the interaction between PRS and family history (FH) in the same population.

METHODS

To calculate the PRS, we used a previously published model derived from the EUR population and applied it to the individuals of SAS ancestry from the UKB study. Each PRS was adjusted according to an individual's genotype location in the principal components (PC) space to derive an ancestry adjusted PRS (aPRS). We calculated the percentiles based on aPRS and stratified individuals into three aPRS categories: low, intermediate, and high. Considering the intermediate-aPRS percentile as a reference, we compared the low and high aPRS categories and generated the odds ratio (OR) estimates. Further, we measured the combined role of aPRS and first-degree family history (FH) in the SAS population.

RESULTS

The risk of developing severe obesity for SAS individuals was almost twofold higher for individuals with high aPRS than for those with intermediate aPRS, with an OR of 1.95 (95% CI = 1.71-2.23, P < 0.01). At the same time, the risk of severe obesity was lower in the low-aPRS group (OR = 0.60, CI = 0.53-0.67, P < 0.01). Results in the same direction were found in the EUR data, where the low-PRS group had an OR of 0.53 (95% CI = 0.51-0.56, P < 0.01) and the high-PRS group had an OR of 2.06 (95% CI = 2.00-2.12, P < 0.01). We observed similar results for CAD and T2D. Further, we show that SAS individuals with a familial history of CAD and T2D with high-aPRS are associated with a higher risk of these diseases, implying a greater genetic predisposition.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that CAD, obesity, and T2D GWAS summary statistics generated predominantly from the EUR population can be potentially used to derive aPRS in SAS individuals for risk stratification. With future GWAS recruiting more SAS participants and tailoring the PRSs towards SAS ancestry, the predictive power of PRS is likely to improve further.

Associations between polygenic risk score and covid-19 susceptibility and severity across ethnic groups: UK Biobank analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 manifests with huge heterogeneity in susceptibility and severity outcomes. UK Black Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups have demonstrated disproportionate burdens. Some variability remains unexplained, suggesting potential genetic contribution. Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) can determine genetic predisposition to disease based on Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) within the genome. COVID-19 PRS analyses within non-European samples are extremely limited. We applied a multi-ethnic PRS to a UK-based cohort to understand genetic contribution to COVID-19 variability.

METHODS

We constructed two PRS for susceptibility and severity outcomes based on leading risk-variants from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. Scores were applied to 447,382 participants from the UK-Biobank. Associations with COVID-19 outcomes were assessed using binary logistic regression and discriminative power was validated using incremental area under receiver operating curve (ΔAUC). Variance explained was compared between ethnic groups via incremental pseudo-R2 (ΔR2).

RESULTS

Compared to those at low genetic risk, those at high risk had a significantly greater risk of severe COVID-19 for White (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.74), Asian (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.63-5.09) and Black (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.11-3.53) ethnic groups. Severity PRS performed best within Asian (ΔAUC 0.9%, ΔR2 0.98%) and Black (ΔAUC 0.6%, ΔR2 0.61%) cohorts. For susceptibility, higher genetic risk was significantly associated with COVID-19 infection risk for the White cohort (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.26-1.36), but not for Black or Asian groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant associations between PRS and COVID-19 outcomes were elicited, establishing a genetic basis for variability in COVID-19. PRS showed utility in identifying high-risk individuals. The multi-ethnic approach allowed applicability of PRS to diverse populations, with the severity model performing well within Black and Asian cohorts. Further studies with larger sample sizes of non-White samples are required to increase statistical power and better assess impacts within BAME populations.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Polygenic Risk Score in African populations: progress and challenges

Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) analysis is a method that predicts the genetic risk of an individual towards targeted traits. Even when there are no significant markers, it gives evidence of a genetic effect beyond the results of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Moreover, it selects  single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that  contribute to the disease with low effect size  making it more precise at individual level risk prediction. PRS  analysis addresses the shortfall of GWAS by taking into account the SNPs/alleles with  low effect size but play an indispensable role to the observed phenotypic/trait variance.  PRS analysis has  applications that investigate the genetic basis of several traits, which includes rare diseases. However, the accuracy of PRS analysis depends on the genomic data of the underlying population. For instance, several studies  show   that obtaining higher prediction power of PRS analysis is challenging for non-Europeans. In this manuscript, we review the conventional PRS methods and their application to sub-Saharan African communities. We conclude that  lack of sufficient GWAS data and tools is  the limiting factor of applying PRS analysis to sub-Saharan populations.   We recommend developing Africa-specific PRS methods and tools for estimating and analyzing  African population data   for clinical  evaluation of PRSs of interest and predicting  rare diseases.

Incorporating Alternative Polygenic Risk Scores into the BOADICEA Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model

BACKGROUND

The multifactorial risk prediction model BOADICEA enables identification of women at higher or lower risk of developing breast cancer. BOADICEA models genetic susceptibility in terms of the effects of rare variants in breast cancer susceptibility genes and a polygenic component, decomposed into an unmeasured and a measured component - the polygenic risk score (PRS). The current version was developed using a 313 SNP PRS. Here, we evaluated approaches to incorporating this PRS and alternative PRS in BOADICEA.

METHODS

The mean, SD, and proportion of the overall polygenic component explained by the PRS (α2) need to be estimated. $\alpha $ was estimated using logistic regression, where the age-specific log-OR is constrained to be a function of the age-dependent polygenic relative risk in BOADICEA; and using a retrospective likelihood (RL) approach that models, in addition, the unmeasured polygenic component.

RESULTS

Parameters were computed for 11 PRS, including 6 variations of the 313 SNP PRS used in clinical trials and implementation studies. The logistic regression approach underestimates $\alpha $, as compared with the RL estimates. The RL $\alpha $ estimates were very close to those obtained by assuming proportionality to the OR per 1 SD, with the constant of proportionality estimated using the 313 SNP PRS. Small variations in the SNPs included in the PRS can lead to large differences in the mean.

CONCLUSIONS

BOADICEA can be readily adapted to different PRS in a manner that maintains consistency of the model.

IMPACT

: The methods described facilitate comprehensive breast cancer risk assessment.

FairPRS: adjusting for admixed populations in polygenic risk scores using invariant risk minimization

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are increasingly used to estimate the personal risk of a trait based on genetics. However, most genomic cohorts are of European populations, with a strong under-representation of non-European groups. Given that PRS poorly transport across racial groups, this has the potential to exacerbate health disparities if used in clinical care. Hence there is a need to generate PRS that perform comparably across ethnic groups. Borrowing from recent advancements in the domain adaption field of machine learning, we propose FairPRS - an Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) approach for estimating fair PRS or debiasing a pre-computed PRS. We test our method on both a diverse set of synthetic data and real data from the UK Biobank. We show our method can create ancestry-invariant PRS distributions that are both racially unbiased and largely improve phenotype prediction. We hope that FairPRS will contribute to a fairer characterization of patients by genetics rather than by race.

Polygenic risk score improves the accuracy of a clinical risk score for coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

The value of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) towards improving guideline-recommended clinical risk models for coronary artery disease (CAD) prediction is controversial. Here we examine whether an integrated polygenic risk score improves the prediction of CAD beyond pooled cohort equations.  METHODS: An observation study of 291,305 unrelated White British UK Biobank participants enrolled from 2006 to 2010 was conducted. A case-control sample of 9499 prevalent CAD cases and an equal number of randomly selected controls was used for tuning and integrating of the polygenic risk scores. A separate cohort of 272,307 individuals (with follow-up to 2020) was used to examine the risk prediction performance of pooled cohort equations, integrated polygenic risk score, and PRS-enhanced pooled cohort equation for incident CAD cases. The performance of each model was analyzed by discrimination and risk reclassification using a 7.5% threshold.

RESULTS

In the cohort of 272,307 individuals (mean age, 56.7 years) used to analyze predictive accuracy, there were 7036 incident CAD cases over a 12-year follow-up period. Model discrimination was tested for integrated polygenic risk score, pooled cohort equation, and PRS-enhanced pooled cohort equation with reported C-statistics of 0.640 (95% CI, 0.634-0.646), 0.718 (95% CI, 0.713-0.723), and 0.753 (95% CI, 0.748-0.758), respectively. Risk reclassification for the addition of the integrated polygenic risk score to the pooled cohort equation at a 7.5% risk threshold resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 0.117 (95% CI, 0.102 to 0.129) for cases and - 0.023 (95% CI, - 0.025 to - 0.022) for noncases [overall: 0.093 (95% CI, 0.08 to 0.104)]. For incident CAD cases, this represented 14.2% correctly reclassified to the higher-risk category and 2.6% incorrectly reclassified to the lower-risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of the integrated polygenic risk score for CAD to the pooled cohort questions improves the predictive accuracy for incident CAD and clinical risk classification in the White British from the UK Biobank. These findings suggest that an integrated polygenic risk score may enhance CAD risk prediction and screening in the White British population.

ExPRSweb: An online repository with polygenic risk scores for common health-related exposures

Complex traits are influenced by genetic risk factors, lifestyle, and environmental variables, so-called exposures. Some exposures, e.g., smoking or lipid levels, have common genetic modifiers identified in genome-wide association studies. Because measurements are often unfeasible, exposure polygenic risk scores (ExPRSs) offer an alternative to study the influence of exposures on various phenotypes. Here, we collected publicly available summary statistics for 28 exposures and applied four common PRS methods to generate ExPRSs in two large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative and the UK Biobank. We established ExPRSs for 27 exposures and demonstrated their applicability in phenome-wide association studies and as predictors for common chronic conditions. Especially the addition of multiple ExPRSs showed, for several chronic conditions, an improvement compared to prediction models that only included traditional, disease-focused PRSs. To facilitate follow-up studies, we share all ExPRS constructs and generated results via an online repository called ExPRSweb.

Enhancing the Trajectories of Cancer Health Disparities Research: Improving Clinical Applications of Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility

In order to accurately detect and prevent racial disparities, self-reported race (SRR) and ethnicity remain valuable tools; however, inaccurate capture of patient identity and broad aggregation of minoritized race groups present challenges for data interpretation. Also, although SRR is a proxy for shared social/cultural experience, it is not an accurate representation of shared endogenous factors. Biological investigations into cancer disparities, particularly those involving genetic features, should be framed in the context of genetic background or ancestry, as these are heritable aspects of population health. In reality, both genetics and environment work in concert to influence cancer risk and clinical outcomes. The best opportunity to define actionable means for reducing health disparities is in rigorous and comprehensive generation of rich data sets that characterize environmental, biological, and genetic components of disparate disease burden. To translate this pivotal disparities research into clinical tools and improved policies, we describe a diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA) framework, which will increase participation from diverse backgrounds, reexamine previous research with a rigorous evaluation of appropriate SRR groupings, and engage community leaders to ensure that future research addresses the needs of communities at increased risk. On this path forward, we may finally end cancer disparities.

Genotype imputation and polygenic score estimation in northwestern Russian population

Numerous studies demonstrated the lack of transferability of polygenic score (PGS) models across populations and the problem arising from unequal presentation of ancestries across genetic studies. However, even within European ancestry there are ethnic groups that are rarely presented in genetic studies. For instance, Russians, being one of the largest, diverse, and yet understudied group in Europe. In this study, we evaluated the reliability of genotype imputation for the Russian cohort by testing several commonly used imputation reference panels (e.g. HRC, 1000G, HGDP). HRC, in comparison with two other panels, showed the most accurate results based on both imputation accuracy and allele frequency concordance between masked and imputed genotypes. We built polygenic score models based on GWAS results from the UK biobank, measured the explained phenotypic variance in the Russian cohort attributed to polygenic scores for 11 phenotypes, collected in the clinic for each participant, and finally explored the role of allele frequency discordance between the UK biobank and the study cohort in the resulting PGS performance.