A measles epidemic threshold in a highly vaccinated population

Seroprevalence of measles antibodies in the Italian general population in 2019-2020

In Italy, the measles elimination target has not yet been reached despite a significant reduction in cases. A multicenter study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of anti-measles (MV) IgG antibodies in the Italian population by age, sex and geographical area. To determine the level of MV-specific antibodies in sera, the immunoenzymatic assay ELISA was used (Enzygnost Anti-VZV/IgG, Siemens Healthcare Diagnostic Products GmbH, Germany). Overall, 3746 serum samples collected in the years 2019-20 from healthy subjects aged 6-64 years residing in 13 Italian regions. The overall seroprevalence of anti-MV IgG was 91.2 % (90.6 % male, 91.7 % female). Significantly higher seroprevalence values (p < 0.05) were recorded for the extreme age groups of the study population (6-9 years: 94.2 %; 40-64 years: 97.6 %). Subjects 20-39 and 40-64 years old had significantly higher antibody titers suggesting a protection against measles mainly derived from natural infection. Seroprevalence was significantly higher in the South (93.2 %) than in the Northern-Central Italy (88.9 %). The results indicate an increase in the overall seroprevalence data compared to previous investigations. However, further efforts must be made to implement and maintain high measles vaccination coverage to avoid the risk of future epidemic outbreaks.

Immunogenicity and reactogenicity following MMR vaccination in 5-7-month-old infants: a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial in 6540 Danish infants

Background

Measles is a highly contagious viral disease. Vaccinated mothers transfer fewer antibodies during pregnancy, resulting in shortened infant immunity. Earlier primary vaccination might avert the gap in protection.

Methods

Healthy 5-7-month-old Danish infants were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to M-M-RVaxPro or placebo (solvent) in a double-blind, randomized trial between April 15, 2019 and November 1, 2021 (ClinicalTrials.govNCT03780179, EudraCT 2016-001901-18). Eligibility criteria were birth weight >1000 g and gestational age ≥32 weeks.Immunogenicity was measured by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) and IgG ELISA before intervention, four weeks after intervention and routine MMR. Reactogenicity data were collected for six weeks and measured by hazard ratios (HR).

Findings

647 and 6540 infants participated in the immunogenicity and reactogenicity study, respectively; 87% and 99% completed follow-up. After early MMR, seroprotection rates (SPRs) were 47% (13%) in measles PRNT; 28% (2%), 57% (8%) in mumps and rubella IgG (placebo). For measles PRNT, geometric mean ratio was 4.3 (95% CI: 3.4-5.3) between randomization groups after intervention and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) after routine MMR.Reactogenicity was independent of randomization (HR, 1.0; 95% CI: 0.9-1.1). Severe adverse events occurred in 25 infants (HR, 1.8; 95% CI: 0.8-4.0); none deemed vaccine related.

Interpretation

Early MMR elicited low SPRs but did not negatively impact short-term responses to a subsequent MMR. MMR at 5-7 months was safe and not associated with higher rates of reactogenicity than placebo.

Funding

Innovation Fund Denmark.

Aerosol transmission of human pathogens: From miasmata to modern viral pandemics and their preservation potential in the Anthropocene record

Ongoing uncertainty over the relative importance of aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is in part rooted in the history of medical science and our understanding of how epidemic diseases can spread through human populations. Ancient Greek medical theory held that such illnesses are transmitted by airborne pathogenic emanations containing particulate matter ("miasmata"). Notable Roman and medieval scholars such as Varro, Ibn al-Khatib and Fracastoro developed these ideas, combining them with early germ theory and the concept of contagion. A widely held but vaguely defined belief in toxic miasmatic mists as a dominant causative agent in disease propagation was overtaken by the science of 19th century microbiology and epidemiology, especially in the study of cholera, which was proven to be mainly transmitted by contaminated water. Airborne disease transmission came to be viewed as burdened by a dubious historical reputation and difficult to demonstrate convincingly. A breakthrough came with the classic mid-20th century work of Wells, Riley and Mills who proved how expiratory aerosols (their "droplet nuclei") could transport still-infectious tuberculosis bacteria through ventilation systems. The topic of aerosol transmission of pathogenic respiratory diseases assumed a new dimension with the mid-late 20th century "Great Acceleration" of an increasingly hypermobile human population repeatedly infected by different strains of zoonotic viruses, and has taken centre stage this century in response to outbreaks of new respiratory infections that include coronaviruses. From a geoscience perspective, the consequences of pandemic-status diseases such as COVID-19, produced by viral pathogens utilising aerosols to infect a human population currently approaching 8 billion, are far-reaching and unprecedented. The obvious and sudden impacts on for example waste plastic production, water and air quality and atmospheric chemistry are accelerating human awareness of current environmental challenges. As such, the "anthropause" lockdown enforced by COVID-19 may come to be seen as a harbinger of change great enough to be preserved in the Anthropocene stratal record.

Study protocol for a phase 1/2, single-centre, double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, active-controlled, age de-escalation trial to assess the safety, tolerability and immunogenicity of a measles and rubella vaccine delivered by a microneedle patch in healthy adults (18 to 40 years), measles and rubella vaccine-primed toddlers (15 to 18 months) and measles and rubella vaccine-naïve infants (9 to 10 months) in The Gambia [Measles and Rubella Vaccine Microneedle Patch Phase 1/2 Age De-escalation Trial]

BACKGROUND

New strategies to increase measles and rubella vaccine coverage, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, are needed if elimination goals are to be achieved. With this regard, measles and rubella vaccine microneedle patches (MRV-MNP), in which the vaccine is embedded in dissolving microneedles, offer several potential advantages over subcutaneous delivery. These include ease of administration, increased thermostability, an absence of sharps waste, reduced overall costs and pain-free administration. This trial will provide the first clinical trial data on MRV-MNP use and the first clinical vaccine trial of MNP technology in children and infants.

METHODS

This is a phase 1/2, randomized, active-controlled, double-blind, double-dummy, age de-escalation trial. Based on the defined eligibility criteria for the trial, including screening laboratory investigations, 45 adults [18-40 years] followed by 120 toddlers [15-18 months] and 120 infants [9-10 months] will be enrolled in series. To allow double-blinding, participants will receive either the MRV-MNP and a placebo (0.9% sodium chloride) subcutaneous (SC) injection or a placebo MNP and the MRV by SC injection (MRV-SC). Local and systemic adverse event data will be collected for 14 days following study product administration. Safety laboratories will be repeated on day 7 and, in the adult cohort alone, on day 14. Unsolicited adverse events including serious adverse events will be collected until the final study visit for each participant on day 180. Measles and rubella serum neutralizing antibodies will be measured at baseline, on day 42 and on day 180. Cohort progression will be dependent on review of the unblinded safety data by an independent data monitoring committee.

DISCUSSION

This trial will provide the first clinical data on the use of a MNP to deliver the MRV and the first data on the use of MNPs in a paediatric population. It will guide future product development decisions for what may be a key technology for future measles and rubella elimination.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Pan-African Clinical Trials Registry 202008836432905 .

CLINICALTRIALS

gov NCT04394689.

It's worth a shot: urban density, endogenous vaccination decisions, and dynamics of infectious disease

We develop an agent-based model of vaccine decisions across a heterogeneous network model with urban and rural regions. In the model, agents make rational decisions to vaccinate or not, based on the relative private costs of vaccinations and infections as well as an estimated probability of infection if not vaccinated. The model is a methodological advance in that it provides an economic rationale for traditional threshold models of vaccine decision-making that are commonly used in agent-based network models of vaccine choice. In the model, more dense urban regions have more connections between agents than less dense rural regions. Higher density leads to higher levels of vaccine usage and lower rates of infection in urban regions within the model. This finding adds to the more commonly discussed socio-economic reasons for higher levels of vaccination usage in urban areas compared to rural areas. In addition to this direct contribution, the paper emphasizes the importance of endogenous decision-making in models of epidemiology. For instance, we find that networks that lead to larger epidemics in exogenous vaccination models lead to smaller epidemics in our model because agents use vaccinations to offset the additional risk introduced by these network structures. Endogenous agent responses to risk need to be incorporated into theoretical and empirical models of economic epidemiology.

Updates on Measles Incidence and Eradication: Emphasis on the Immunological Aspects of Measles Infection

Measles is an RNA virus infectious disease mainly seen in children. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine against measles, it remains a health issue in children. Although it is a self-limiting disease, it becomes severe in undernourished and immune-compromised individuals. Measles infection is associated with secondary infections by opportunistic bacteria due to the immunosuppressive effects of the measles virus. Recent reports highlight that measles infection erases the already existing immune memory of various pathogens. This review covers the incidence, pathogenesis, measles variants, clinical presentations, secondary infections, elimination of measles virus on a global scale, and especially the immune responses related to measles infection.

Spatiotemporal distributions of immunization coverage in Ethiopia from 2000 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is the most important mechanism to improve childhood survival. However, immunization coverage is very low and unevenly distributed throughout the country. Therefore, this study was aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of immunization coverage in Ethiopia.

METHOD

Immunization coverage data and geospatial covariates data were obtained from EDHS 2000 to 2019 and different publicly available sources. A Bayesian geostatistic model was used to estimate the national immunization coverage at a pixel level and to identify factors associated with the spatial clustering of immunization coverages.

RESULT

The overall immunization coverage in Ethiopia was 38.7%, 36.55%, 51.8%, 67.1% and 66.9% for 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016 and 2019 respectively. Spatial clustering of low immunization coverage was observed in Eastern, Southern, Southwestern, Southeastern and Northeastern parts of Ethiopia in EDHSs. The altitude of the area was positively associated with immunization coverage in 2000, 2005 and 2019 EDHS. The population density was positively associated with immunization coverage in 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016. Precipitation is also positively associated with immunization coverage in 2016. Moreover, mean annual temperature was positively associated with immunization coverage in 2000, 2005 and 2019 EDHSs. Travel time to the nearest city is negatively associated with immunization coverage in 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016. Likewise, distance to health facilities was negatively associated with immunization coverage in all the five EDHSs.

CONCLUSION

This study found that immunization coverage in Ethiopia substantially varied across the subnational and local levels. Spatial clustering of low immunization coverage was observed in Southern, Southeastern, Southwestern, Northeastern, and Eastern parts of the country. Altitude, population density, precipitation, temperature, travel time to the nearest city in minutes, and distance to the health facilities were factors that affect the spatial clustering of immunizations coverage. These findings can guide policymakers in Ethiopia to design geographically targeted interventions to increase programs to achieve maximum immunization coverage.

Trait-Based Vaccination of Individual Meerkats (Suricata suricatta) against Tuberculosis Provides Evidence to Support Targeted Disease Control

Simple Summary

There is evidence to show that, within a population, some individuals are more likely to spread infections than others. When trying to protect a population against infection, most strategies aim to vaccinate as many individuals as possible. However, vaccinating wildlife is difficult because individuals are difficult to find and capture. For wildlife therefore, the ideal strategy would involve targeting vaccinations at those individuals most likely to transmit infection, thus gaining maximum benefit from capturing a small number of individuals. Whilst this seems a very attractive solution, very few studies have attempted to provide evidence to support this theory. This study focuses on a population of meerkats with a history of tuberculosis. Previous work has suggested that socially dominant individuals are most likely to transmit infection, with subordinates most likely to become infected. Therefore, whilst some social groups were left untreated as a baseline, in others, either dominants or subordinates were vaccinated. All groups were monitored for two years, after which time the infection data was analysed. Groups in which vaccinations had been used showed reduced infection rates suggesting that the targeted approach had reduced transmission. A targeted approach may therefore offer an efficient option for vaccinating wildlife in the future.

Abstract

Individuals vary in their potential to acquire and transmit infections, but this fact is currently underexploited in disease control strategies. We trialled a trait-based vaccination strategy to reduce tuberculosis in free-living meerkats by targeting high-contact meerkats (socially dominant individuals) in one study arm, and high-susceptibility individuals (young subordinates) in a second arm. We monitored infection within vaccinated groups over two years comparing the results with untreated control groups. Being a member of a high-contact group had a protective effect on individuals’ survival times (Hazard Ratio = 0.5, 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.29–0.88, p = 0.02) compared to control groups. Over the study, odds of testing positive for tuberculosis increased more than five-fold in control groups (Odds Ratio = 5.40, 95% CI = 0.94–30.98, p = 0.058); however, no increases were observed in either of the treatment arms. Targeted disease control approaches, such as the one described in this study, allow for reduced numbers of interventions. Here, trait-based vaccination was associated with reduced infection rates and thus has the potential to offer more efficient alternatives to traditional mass-vaccination policies. Such improvements in efficiency warrant further study and could make infectious disease control more practically achievable in both animal (particularly wildlife) and human populations.

The Use of Digital Technologies to Support Vaccination Programmes in Europe: State of the Art and Best Practices from Experts' Interviews

Digitalisation offers great potential to improve vaccine uptake, supporting the need for effective life-course immunisation services. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with public health experts from 10 Western European countries (Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom) to assess the current level of digitalisation in immunisation programmes and retrieve data on interventions and best practices. Interviews were performed using an ad hoc questionnaire, piloted on a sample of national experts. We report a mixed level of digital technologies deployment within vaccination services across Europe: Some countries are currently developing eHealth strategies, while others have already put in place robust programmes. Institutional websites, educational videos, and electronic immunisation records are the most frequently adopted digital tools. Webinars and dashboards represent valuable resources to train and support healthcare professionals in immunisation services organisation. Text messages, email-based communication, and smartphone apps use is scattered across Europe. The main reported barrier to the implementation of digital-based programmes is the lack of resources and shared standards. Our study offers a comprehensive picture of the European context and shows the need for robust collaboration between states and international institutions to share best practices and inform the planning of digital intervention models with the aim of countering vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccine uptake.

Scalable Estimation of Epidemic Thresholds via Node Sampling

Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. It is therefore of great practical relevance to investigate the network transmission of contagious diseases from the perspective of statistical inference. An important and widely studied boundary condition for contagion processes over networks is the so-called epidemic threshold. The epidemic threshold plays a key role in determining whether a pathogen introduced into a social contact network will cause an epidemic or die out. In this paper, we investigate epidemic thresholds from the perspective of statistical network inference. We identify two major challenges that are caused by high computational and sampling complexity of the epidemic threshold. We develop two statistically accurate and computationally efficient approximation techniques to address these issues under the Chung-Lu modeling framework. The second approximation, which is based on random walk sampling, further enjoys the advantage of requiring data on a vanishingly small fraction of nodes. We establish theoretical guarantees for both methods and demonstrate their empirical superiority.

Current understandings of the impact of mandatory vaccination laws in Europe

Vaccinations are among the most successful preventive tools to protect collective health. In response to alarming vaccines preventable diseases (VPDs) outbreaks resurgence, decreased vaccination coverage and vaccine refusal, several European countries have recently revised their vaccination policies introducing or extending mandatory vaccinations. This review examines the health, political and ethical aspects of mandatory vaccination.The authors first clarify terms and definitions and propose a conceptual framework of mandatory policies. Second, they describe the current status of mandatory childhood immunization programmes in Europe, assessing selected mandatory laws. Third, as the authors conduct a systematic review of the literature (retrieving from Medline 17 relevant records between 2010 and 2020), they take an analytical approach to measure the impact of mandatory vaccination policies on both VPDs control and immunization coverage, but also on population attitudes toward vaccines. 40% of European countries currently have mandatory vaccination policies; however, policies vary widely and, although there is evidence of increased vaccine uptake, their impact on informed adherence to preventive behaviors is scant.Although mandatory vaccination policies might be needed to protect collective health in times of emergency, public health goals of VPD prevention and health promotion should primarily be pursued through health education and population empowerment.

Transmission Network of Measles During the Yamagata Outbreak in Japan, 2017

Background

A measles outbreak involving 60 cases occurred in Yamagata, Japan in 2017. Using two different mathematical models for different datasets, we aimed to estimate measles transmissibility over time and explore any heterogeneous transmission patterns.

Methods

The first model relied on the temporal distribution for date of illness onset for cases, and a generation-dependent model was applied to the data. Another model focused on the transmission network. Using the illness-onset date along with the serial interval and geographical location of exposure, we reconstructed a transmission network with 19 unknown links. We then compared the number of secondary transmissions with and without clinical symptoms or laboratory findings.

Results

Using a generation-dependent model (assuming three generations other than the index case), the reproduction number (R) over generations 0, 1, and 2 were 25.3, 1.3, and <0.1, respectively, explicitly yielding the transmissibility over each generation. The network data enabled us to demonstrate that both the mean and the variance for the number of secondary transmissions per primary case declined over time. Comparing primary cases with and without secondary transmission, high viral shedding was the only significant determinant (P < 0.01).

Conclusions

The R declined abruptly over subsequent generations. Use of network data revealed the distribution of the number of secondary transmissions per primary case and also allowed us to identify possible secondary transmission risk factors. High viral shedding from the throat mucosa was identified as a potential predictor of secondary transmission.

Seropositivity of measles antibodies in the Israeli population prior to the nationwide 2018 - 2019 outbreak

Measles vaccine is administered in Israel as part of the routine childhood immunization program, at ages 1 and 6 years. In this study, we assessed seropositivity of the Israeli population against measles before the onset and propagation of the 2018-2019 measles outbreak. From the Israel Center for Disease Control National Serum Bank, 3,164 samples collected during 2015 were tested for measles antibodies. All the tests were performed using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) commercial kit (Enzygnost, Anti-Measles Virus/IgG: Behring, Marburg, Germany). The overall seropositivity rate for measles was 90.7%. The seropositivity rate at 6 months and younger was 48.9%, and decreased to 3.8% among infants aged 6-11 months. Seropositivity increased to 90.7% in the 1-4-year age group, and reached 96.1% for 5-9 year-old children. Our results suggest high immunity in the Israeli population against measles virus, but not high enough to prevent outbreaks because of pockets of specific population groups with low immunization coverage. Infants between ages 6 and 11 months and children younger than 2 years had the lowest seropositivity rates being the age groups with the highest attack rates of measles during the epidemic of 2018. Efforts should be aimed at avoiding any delay in vaccination once a child reaches the age of 1 year and improving immunity levels in children aged 1-4 years.

Spatiotemporal Distribution and Genetic Characterization of Measles Strains Circulating in Greece during the 2017-2018 Outbreak

Between May 2017 and November 2018, Greece has experienced a severe measles outbreak with a total of 3258 cases reported, after reaching its goal of eliminating measles since 2014-2015. In this study, we aimed to investigate the origin and the dispersal patterns of the measles strains that circulated in Greece during this outbreak and to identify possible transmission patterns of measles virus (MeV) in the country. Of the 832 measles suspect cases referred to the National Measles and Rubella Reference Laboratory for MeV RNA detection, 131 randomly selected positive samples, representative of the temporal and spatial distribution of the laboratory-confirmed measles cases in Greece, were processed for genotypic identification by an RT-PCR amplification of a 598 bp fragment containing the 450 bp hypervariable region of the measles virus N gene. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out by the approximate maximum likelihood method (ML) under the generalized time-reversible (GTR + cat) model. All samples analyzed were found to belong to genotype B3. Comparative analysis with other European and reference measles strains revealed three separate major clusters and other multiple viruses circulating simultaneously in Greece. They were all isolated from three main community groups, Greek-Roma children, non-minority Greek nationals and immigrants/refugees, a finding that is in accordance with what was also observed in the last two measles outbreaks in 2005-2006 and 2010-2011. Notably, for one of the three clusters, no similarity was detected with previously reported prototype strains. Our results indicate the need for a more intensive vaccination program against measles amongst minority populations and in refugee hot-spots as well as the importance of molecular surveillance as a tool for monitoring measles outbreaks.

Investigation of Measles Outbreak among Thai and Migrant Workers in Two Factories in Nakhon Pathom, Thailand, 2019

On 22 March 2019 the Thai Department of Disease Control (DDC) was notified that 16 workers, including Thai and Myanmar migrant workers, from two factories located in Nakhon Phathom Province, had presented with a fever with rash during the previous 2 weeks. Active case finding was conducted among workers in both factories using face-to-face interviews. Suspected cases were defined as a worker who developed fever with rash with one of the following symptoms: cough, coryza or conjunctivitis. Testing for measles IgM antibodies and viral identification through throat swabs by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were performed to confirm diagnosis. Vaccination history among cases was reviewed. Nationality and age-specific attack rates (AR) were calculated. An environmental study and a social network analysis were conducted to better understand the transmission process. A total 56 cases (AR = 0.97%) were identified. Of 21 serum measles IgM collected, 8 (38.0%) were positive. Of 8 throat swabs collected, 5 (62.5%) were positive for measles genotype D8. The disease attack rate in migrant employees was twice as large as the rate in Thai counterparts (AR = 0.7 and 1.4%). The first case was identified as a Myanmar worker who arrived in Thailand two weeks prior to his illness. The Myanmar workers’ accommodation was more crowded than that for Thai workers. The hot spots of transmission were found at a drinking water tank which had shared glasses. Among the cases, 62.5% could not recall their vaccination history, and 25% had never had an injection containing a measles vaccination. The majority of migrant cases had never completed a two-dose measles vaccination. To halt the outbreak, measles vaccines were administered to the employees, particularly those working in the same sections with the cases and shared glasses were removed. For future policy action, a vaccination program should be incorporated into the work permit issuance process.

Herd immunity communication counters detrimental effects of selective vaccination mandates: Experimental evidence

BACKGROUND

Low vaccine uptake results in regular outbreaks of severe diseases, such as measles. Selective mandates, e.g. making measles vaccination mandatory (as currently implemented in Germany), could offer a viable solution to the problem. However, prior research has shown that making only some vaccinations mandatory, while leaving the rest to voluntary decisions, can result in psychological reactance (anger) and decreased uptake of voluntary vaccines. Since communicating the concept of herd immunity has been shown to increase willingness to vaccinate, this study assessed whether it can buffer such reactance effects.

METHODS

A total of N = 576 participants completed a preregistered 2 (policy: selective mandate vs. voluntary decision) × 2 (communication: herd immunity explained yes vs. no) factorial online experiment (AsPredicted #26007). In a first scenario, the concept of herd immunity was either introduced or not and vaccination either mandatory or voluntary, depending on condition. The dependent variable was the intention to vaccinate in the second scenario, where vaccination was always voluntary. Additionally, we explored the mediating role of anger between policies and intentions.

FINDINGS

Herd immunity communication generally increased vaccination intentions; selective mandates had no overall effect on intentions, and there was no interaction of the factors. However, selective mandates led to increased anger when herd immunity was not explained, leading in turn to lower subsequent vaccination intentions.

INTERPRETATION

Explaining herd immunity can counter potential detrimental effects of selective mandates by preventing anger (reactance).

FUNDING

This study was funded by the University of Erfurt and the German Research Foundation (BE-3979/11-1).

Measles: An Overview of a Re-Emerging Disease in Children and Immunocompromised Patients

Despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, in 2018, around 350,000 measles cases were reported worldwide, which resulted in an estimate of 142,300 deaths from measles. Additionally, in 2017, global measles cases spiked, causing the death of 110,000 people, mostly children under the age of 5 years and immunocompromised adults. The increase in measles incidence is caused by the ongoing reduction of vaccination coverage. This event has triggered public and scientific interest. For this reason, we reviewed the pathophysiology of measles infection, focusing on mechanisms by which the virus spreads systemically through the host organism. By reaching the lymphocytes from the airways through a "trojan horse" strategy, measles induces an immunosuppression status. H and F glycoproteins, both expressed in the envelope, ensure attachment of the virus to host cells and spreading from one cell to another by binding to several receptors, as described in detail. The severity of the disease depends both on the age and underlying conditions of patients as well as the social and health context in which epidemics spread, and is often burdened by sequelae and complications that may occur several years after infection. Particular attention was paid to special groups that are more susceptible to severe or atypical measles. An overview of microbiology, symptoms, diagnosis, prevention, and treatment completes and enriches the review.

Influenza, Measles, SARS, MERS, and Smallpox

Influenza, measles, SARS, MERS, and smallpox illnesses are caused by highly infectious viral pathogens that induce critical illness. These biologically diverse viruses enter and replicate within host cells triggering viral- and host-mediated damage that results in pneumonia and multiorgan failure in severe cases. Early case identification and strict infection control limit healthcare transmission. Vaccination allowed smallpox eradication and limits global measles and seasonal influenza mortality. While SARS-coronavirus (CoV) is no longer circulating, MERS-CoV and zoonotic influenza viruses, with pandemic potential, remain persistent threats. Supportive critical care is the mainstay of treatment for severe disease due to these viral infections.

[CME Dermatology 22: Measles - Empidemiology and Clinical Manifestations]

CME Dermatology 22: Measles - Empidemiology and Clinical Manifestations Abstract. Measles is a highly contagious, acute and febrile illness that results from infection with measles virus. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates a worldwide prevalence of ten million patients per year, leading to approximately 142 000 deaths (case fatality rate 1.4 %). The illness begins with fever, malaise and typically with at least one of the following signs: cough, coryza and/or conjunctivitis. Three to four days later, the characteristical rash appears. The primary clinical diagnosis needs to be confirmed by detection of specific IgM antibodies in serum or viral RNA by a throat swap. The management mainly consists of supportive therapy, a specific antiviral treatment does not exist. Therefore, prevention by widespread measles vaccination has absolute priority.

Additional Evidence on Serological Correlates of Protection against Measles: An Observational Cohort Study among Once Vaccinated Children Exposed to Measles

To assess correlates of protection against measles and against subclinical measles virus (MV) infection, we recruited once-vaccinated children from geographic regions associated with increased MV circulation and/or at schools with low vaccination coverage in the Netherlands. Paired blood samples were collected shortly after onset of the measles outbreak and after the outbreak. A questionnaire was used to document the likelihood of exposure to MV and occurrence of measles-like symptoms. All blood samples were tested for MV-specific antibodies with five different assays. Correlates of protection were assessed by considering the lowest neutralizing antibody levels in children without MV infection, and by ROC analyses. Among 91 participants, two seronegative children (2%) developed measles, and an additional 19 (23%) experienced subclinical MV infection. The correlate of protection against measles was lower than 0.345 IU/mL. We observed a decreasing attack rate of subclinical MV infection with increasing levels of specific antibodies until 2.1 IU/mL, above which no subclinical MV infections were detected. The ROC analyses found a correlate of protection of 1.71 IU/mL (95% CI 1.01–2.11) for subclinical MV infection. Our correlates of protection were consistent with previous estimates. This information supports the analyses of serosurveys to detect immunity gaps that require targeted intervention strategies.

Modelling a Supplementary Vaccination Program of Rubella Using the 2012⁻2013 Epidemic Data in Japan

From 2012-2013, Japan experienced a major epidemic of rubella, involving a total of 12,614 rubella cases and 45 confirmed cases of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). One of the contributory factors in this outbreak may have been that the majority of adult males remained unvaccinated. To plan for a supplementary immunization program (SIP) to elevate the herd immunity level, it is critical to determine the required amount of vaccine and identify the target age groups among males for the SIP. The present study aimed to answer these policy questions, employing a mathematical model and analyzing epidemiological datasets from 2012-2013. Our model allowed us to reconstruct the age- and sex-dependent transmission patterns, and the effective reproduction number during the exponential growth phase in 2013 was estimated to be 1.5. The computed next-generation matrix indicated that vaccinating adult males aged from 20-49 years in 2013, using at least 17 million doses, was considered essential to prevent a major epidemic in the future. The proposed model also indicated that, even with smaller doses of vaccine, the SIP in adult males could lead to a substantial reduction in the incidence of rubella, as well as CRS. Importantly, the present study endorses a substantial background risk of observing another major epidemic from 2018-2019, in which cases may be dominated by adult males aged from 25-54 years, that is, our identified age groups plus a five-year time lag from 2013 to 2018.

Measles outbreaks in Italy: A paradigm of the re-emergence of vaccine-preventable diseases in developed countries

Over the last decade, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases have been reported in developed countries around the world. In particular, measles outbreaks have been ongoing in the European Union since 2017, with the majority of cases concentrated in Romania and Italy. Measles has been identified as a powerful indicator of the status of vaccination programs in a region, as outbreaks have been reported to quickly emerge as a result of underlying problems in the immunisation routine. This paper aims to report and critically comment on the factors underpinning the recent measles outbreaks in Italy, considering the psychological, cultural, social and political causes of vaccine hesitancy and refusal amongst the population. Data from government agencies including the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) are analysed to describe incidence and mortality trends from 1887 to the present day, including regional variations and the impact of measles vaccination coverage. The topic of compulsory vaccination is currently the object of heated debate in the Italian social and political panorama; this paper discusses the current state of the vaccination controversy in the Italian political discourse and its potential impact on immunisation policies and measles vaccine coverage amongst the population. A burgeoning body of evidence indicates that every effort should be made to bolster the existing legislation on mandatory vaccination through widespread health education campaigns aimed at improving scientific literacy amongst the Italian population with regards to the topic of immunisation.

Simultaneous Detection and Differentiation between Wild-Type and Vaccine Measles Viruses by a Multiplex Real-Time Reverse Transcription-PCR Assay

Measles is one of the most contagious viral respiratory infections and was declared to be eliminated from Canada in 1998; however, measles cases and outbreaks still occur every year through reintroduction from other parts of the world. Laboratory confirmation of measles virus (MV) RNA by real-time PCR provides a definitive diagnosis, and molecular analysis to determine the genotype is the only way to distinguish between wild-type and vaccine strains. This distinction is important since live attenuated vaccine strains are able to replicate in the patient and can be associated with rash and fever but are poorly transmissible, if at all. Prompt reporting of measles cases to local authorities, including differentiation between wild-type and vaccine strains, allows for optimal management and contact tracing. The development and validation of a multiplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR (rtRT-PCR) assay for the simultaneous detection and differentiation of the Moraten and Schwarz vaccine strains from presumptive wild-type MV in a format that can be easily implemented for high-throughput testing of patient samples are reported here. This assay is sensitive, specific, reproducible, and 100% accurate in comparison with the gold standard comparator assay.

Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan

Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease have been documented in Japan since 1963. This disease is primarily caused by the two closely related serotypes of Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Here, we analyse Japanese virologic and syndromic surveillance time-series data from 1982 to 2015. As in some other countries in the Asia Pacific region, EV-A71 in Japan has a 3 year cyclical component, whereas CV-A16 is predominantly annual. We observe empirical signatures of an inhibitory interaction between the serotypes; virologic lines of evidence suggest they may indeed interact immunologically. We fit the time series to mechanistic epidemiological models: as a first-order effect, we find the data consistent with single-serotype susceptible–infected–recovered dynamics. We then extend the modelling to incorporate an inhibitory interaction between serotypes. Our results suggest the existence of a transient cross-protection and possible asymmetry in its strength such that CV-A16 serves as a stronger forcing on EV-A71. Allowing for asymmetry yields accurate out-of-sample predictions and the directionality of this effect is consistent with the virologic literature. Confirmation of these hypothesized interactions would have important implications for understanding enterovirus epidemiology and informing vaccine development. Our results highlight the general implication that even subtle interactions could have qualitative impacts on epidemic dynamics and predictability.

Measles outbreak risk in Pakistan: exploring the potential of combining vaccination coverage and incidence data with novel data-streams to strengthen control

Although measles incidence has reached historic lows in many parts of the world, the disease still causes substantial morbidity globally. Even where control programs have succeeded in driving measles locally extinct, unless vaccination coverage is maintained at extremely high levels, susceptible numbers may increase sufficiently to spark large outbreaks. Human mobility will drive potentially infectious contacts and interact with the landscape of susceptibility to determine the pattern of measles outbreaks. These interactions have proved difficult to characterise empirically. We explore the degree to which new sources of data combined with existing public health data can be used to evaluate the landscape of immunity and the role of spatial movement for measles introductions by retrospectively evaluating our ability to predict measles outbreaks in vaccinated populations. Using inferred spatial patterns of accumulation of susceptible individuals and travel data, we predicted the timing of epidemics in each district of Pakistan during a large measles outbreak in 2012–2013 with over 30 000 reported cases. We combined these data with mobility data extracted from over 40 million mobile phone subscribers during the same time frame in the country to quantify the role of connectivity in the spread of measles. We investigate how different approaches could contribute to targeting vaccination efforts to reach districts before outbreaks started. While some prediction was possible, accuracy was low and we discuss key uncertainties linked to existing data streams that impede such inference and detail what data might be necessary to robustly infer timing of epidemics.

Spatial clustering of measles vaccination coverage among children in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

During the past two decades, vaccination programs have greatly reduced global morbidity and mortality due to measles, but recently this progress has stalled. Even in countries that report high vaccination coverage rates, transmission has continued, particularly in spatially clustered subpopulations with low vaccination coverage.

Methods

We examined the spatial heterogeneity of measles vaccination coverage among children aged 12–23 months in ten Sub-Saharan African countries. We used the Anselin Local Moran’s I to estimate clustering of vaccination coverage based on data from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2008 and 2013. We also examined the role of sociodemographic factors to explain clustering of low vaccination.

Results

We detected 477 spatial clusters with low vaccination coverage, many of which were located in countries with relatively high nationwide vaccination coverage rates such as Zambia and Malawi. We also found clusters in border areas with transient populations. Clustering of low vaccination coverage was related to low health education and limited access to healthcare.

Conclusions

Systematically monitoring clustered populations with low vaccination coverage can inform supplemental immunization activities and strengthen elimination programs. Metrics of spatial heterogeneity should be used routinely to determine the success of immunization programs and the risk of disease persistence.

Measles

Measles is a highly contagious disease that results from infection with measles virus and is still responsible for more than 100 000 deaths every year, down from more than 2 million deaths annually before the introduction and widespread use of measles vaccine. Measles virus is transmitted by the respiratory route and illness begins with fever, cough, coryza, and conjunctivitis followed by a characteristic rash. Complications of measles affect most organ systems, with pneumonia accounting for most measles-associated morbidity and mortality. The management of patients with measles includes provision of vitamin A. Measles is best prevented through vaccination, and the major reductions in measles incidence and mortality have renewed interest in regional elimination and global eradication. However, urgent efforts are needed to increase stagnating global coverage with two doses of measles vaccine through advocacy, education, and the strengthening of routine immunisation systems. Use of combined measles-rubella vaccines provides an opportunity to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome. Ongoing research efforts, including the development of point-of-care diagnostics and microneedle patches, will facilitate progress towards measles elimination and eradication.

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs.

RESULTS

A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

Geospatial characteristics of measles transmission in China during 2005-2014

Measles is a highly contagious and severe disease. Despite mass vaccination, it remains a leading cause of death in children in developing regions, killing 114,900 globally in 2014. In 2006, China committed to eliminating measles by 2012; to this end, the country enhanced its mandatory vaccination programs and achieved vaccination rates reported above 95% by 2008. However, in spite of these efforts, during the last 3 years (2013-2015) China documented 27,695, 52,656, and 42,874 confirmed measles cases. How measles manages to spread in China-the world's largest population-in the mass vaccination era remains poorly understood. To address this conundrum and provide insights for future public health efforts, we analyze the geospatial pattern of measles transmission across China during 2005-2014. We map measles incidence and incidence rates for each of the 344 cities in mainland China, identify the key socioeconomic and demographic features associated with high disease burden, and identify transmission clusters based on the synchrony of outbreak cycles. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, we identify 21 epidemic clusters, of which 12 were cross-regional. The cross-regional clusters included more underdeveloped cities with large numbers of emigrants than would be expected by chance (p = 0.011; bootstrap sampling), indicating that cities in these clusters were likely linked by internal worker migration in response to uneven economic development. In contrast, cities in regional clusters were more likely to have high rates of minorities and high natural growth rates than would be expected by chance (p = 0.074; bootstrap sampling). Our findings suggest that multiple highly connected foci of measles transmission coexist in China and that migrant workers likely facilitate the transmission of measles across regions. This complex connection renders eradication of measles challenging in China despite its high overall vaccination coverage. Future immunization programs should therefore target these transmission foci simultaneously.

Assessing the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016

OBJECTIVES

Despite the verification of measles elimination, Japan experienced multiple generations of measles transmission following importation events in 2016. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016, estimating the transmission potential in the partially vaccinated population.

METHODS

All diagnosed measles cases were notified to the government, and the present study analyzed two pieces of datasets independently, i.e., the transmission tree of the largest outbreak in Osaka (n=49) and the final size distribution of all importation events (n=23 events). Branching process model was employed to estimate the effective reproduction number R_v, and the analysis of transmission tree in Osaka enabled us to account for the timing of introducing contact tracing and case isolation.

RESULTS

Employing a negative binomial distribution for the offspring distribution, the model with time-dependent decline in R_v due to interventions appeared to best fit to the transmission tree data with R_v of 9.20 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.08, 150.68) and the dispersion parameter 0.32 (95% CI: 0.07, 1.17) before interventions were introduced. The relative transmissibility in the presence of interventions from week 34 was estimated at 0.005. Analyzing the final size distribution, models for subcritical and supercritical processes fitted equally well to the observed data, and the estimated reproduction number from both models did not exclude the possibility that R_v>1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results likely reflect the highly contagious nature of measles, indicating that Japan is at risk of observing multiple generations of measles transmission given imported cases. Considering that importation events may continue in the future, supplementary vaccination of adults needs to be considered.

Measles

Measles is an infectious disease in humans caused by the measles virus (MeV). Before the introduction of an effective measles vaccine, virtually everyone experienced measles during childhood. Symptoms of measles include fever and maculopapular skin rash accompanied by cough, coryza and/or conjunctivitis. MeV causes immunosuppression, and severe sequelae of measles include pneumonia, gastroenteritis, blindness, measles inclusion body encephalitis and subacute sclerosing panencephalitis. Case confirmation depends on clinical presentation and results of laboratory tests, including the detection of anti-MeV IgM antibodies and/or viral RNA. All current measles vaccines contain a live attenuated strain of MeV, and great progress has been made to increase global vaccination coverage to drive down the incidence of measles. However, endemic transmission continues in many parts of the world. Measles remains a considerable cause of childhood mortality worldwide, with estimates that >100,000 fatal cases occur each year. Case fatality ratio estimates vary from <0.01% in industrialized countries to >5% in developing countries. All six WHO regions have set goals to eliminate endemic transmission of MeV by achieving and maintaining high levels of vaccination coverage accompanied by a sensitive surveillance system. Because of the availability of a highly effective and relatively inexpensive vaccine, the monotypic nature of the virus and the lack of an animal reservoir, measles is considered a candidate for eradication.

Modeling Measles Transmission in the North American Amish and Options for Outbreak Response

Measles outbreaks in the United States continue to occur in subpopulations with sufficient numbers of undervaccinated individuals, with a 2014 outbreak in Amish communities in Ohio pushing the annual cases to the highest national number reported in the last 20 years. We adapted an individual-based model developed to explore potential poliovirus transmission in the North American Amish to characterize a 1988 measles outbreak in the Pennsylvania Amish and the 2014 outbreak in the Ohio Amish. We explored the impact of the 2014 outbreak response compared to no or partial response. Measles can spread very rapidly in an underimmunized subpopulation like the North American Amish, with the potential for national spread within a year or so in the absence of outbreak response. Vaccination efforts significantly reduced the transmission of measles and the expected number of cases. Until global eradication, measles importations will continue to pose a threat to clusters of underimmunized individuals in the United States. Aggressive outbreak response efforts in Ohio probably prevented widespread transmission of measles within the entire North American Amish.

The economic cost of measles: Healthcare, public health and societal costs of the 2012-13 outbreak in Merseyside, UK

BACKGROUND

Measles is a highly contagious vaccine-preventable infection that caused large outbreaks in England in 2012 and 2013 in areas which failed to achieve herd protection levels (95%) consistently. We sought to quantify the economic costs associated with the 2012-13 Merseyside measles outbreak, relative to the cost of extending preventative vaccination to secure herd protection.

METHODS

A costing model based on a critical literature review was developed. A workshop and interviews were held with key stakeholders in the Merseyside outbreak to understand the pathway of a measles case and then quantify healthcare activity and costs for the main NHS providers and public health team incurred during the initial four month period to May 2012. These data were used to model the total costs of the full outbreak to August 2013, comprising those to healthcare providers for patient treatment, public health and societal productivity losses. The modelled total cost of the full outbreak was compared to the cost of extending the preventative vaccination programme to achieve herd protection.

FINDINGS

The Merseyside outbreak included 2458 reported cases. The estimated cost of the outbreak was £ 4.4m (sensitivity analysis £ 3.9 m to £ 5.2m) comprising 15% (£ 0.7 m) NHS patient treatment costs, 40% (£ 1.8m) public health costs and 44% (£ 2.0m) for societal productivity losses. In comparison, over the previous five years in Cheshire and Merseyside a further 11,793 MMR vaccinations would have been needed to achieve herd protection at an estimated cost of £ 182,909 (4% of the total cost of the measles outbreak).

INTERPRETATION

Failure to consistently reach MMR uptake levels of 95% across all localities and sectors (achieve herd protection) risks comparatively higher economic costs associated with the containment (including healthcare costs) and implementation of effective public health management of outbreaks.

FUNDING

Commissioned by the Cheshire and Merseyside Public Health England Centre.

Vaccine-preventable infection morbidity of patients with chronic kidney disease and cocoon vaccination strategies

Individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are vulnerable to vaccine-preventable infections due to impaired immunity, immunosuppressive treatments and dialysis. Protection of CKD patients by vaccination is hampered by reduced efficacy of vaccines and safety concerns for transplant candidates or recipients. 'Cocooning' vaccination policies, targeting the protection of a vulnerable individual through immunization of close contacts, have recently been introduced for infants and, to a lesser degree, for high-risk groups of immunocompromised individuals. In this article, we discuss the potentiality of implementing cocoon strategies for the high-risk group of CKD patients and conclude that this not yet officially recommended policy can substantially contribute to protection against infection and motivate vaccination among families and healthcare workers.

The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California

BACKGROUND

Measles cases continue to occur among susceptible individuals despite the elimination of endemic measles transmission in the United States. Clustering of disease susceptibility can threaten herd immunity and impact the likelihood of disease outbreaks in a highly vaccinated population. Previous studies have examined the role of contact tracing to control infectious diseases among clustered populations, but have not explicitly modeled the public health response using an agent-based model.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based simulation model of measles transmission using the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics (FRED) and the Synthetic Population Database maintained by RTI International. The simulation of measles transmission was based on interactions among individuals in different places: households, schools, daycares, workplaces, and neighborhoods. The model simulated different levels of immunity clustering, vaccination coverage, and contact investigations with delays caused by individuals' behaviors and/or the delay in a health department's response. We examined the effects of these characteristics on the probability of uncontrolled measles outbreaks and the outbreak size in 365 days after the introduction of one index case into a synthetic population.

RESULTS

We found that large measles outbreaks can be prevented with contact investigations and moderate contact rates by having (1) a very high vaccination coverage (≥ 95%) with a moderate to low level of immunity clustering (≤ 0.5) for individuals aged less than or equal to 18 years, or (2) a moderate vaccination coverage (85% or 90%) with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age), a short intervention delay, and a high probability that a contact can be traced. Without contact investigations, measles outbreaks may be prevented by the highest vaccination coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) with moderate contact rates; but for the highest contact rates, even the highest coverage with no immunity clustering for individuals (≤ 18 years of age) cannot completely prevent measles outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation results demonstrated the importance of vaccination coverage, clustering of immunity, and contact investigations in preventing uncontrolled measles outbreaks.

Transport networks and inequities in vaccination: remoteness shapes measles vaccine coverage and prospects for elimination across Africa

Measles vaccination is estimated to have averted 13·8 million deaths between 2000 and 2012. Persisting heterogeneity in coverage is a major contributor to continued measles mortality, and a barrier to measles elimination and introduction of rubella-containing vaccine. Our objective is to identify determinants of inequities in coverage, and how vaccine delivery must change to achieve elimination goals, which is a focus of the WHO Decade of Vaccines. We combined estimates of travel time to the nearest urban centre (⩾50 000 people) with vaccination data from Demographic Health Surveys to assess how remoteness affects coverage in 26 African countries. Building on a statistical mapping of coverage against age and geographical isolation, we quantified how modifying the rate and age range of vaccine delivery affects national coverage. Our scenario analysis considers increasing the rate of delivery of routine vaccination, increasing the target age range of routine vaccination, and enhanced delivery to remote areas. Geographical isolation plays a key role in defining vaccine inequity, with greater inequity in countries with lower measles vaccine coverage. Eliminating geographical inequities alone will not achieve thresholds for herd immunity, indicating that changes in delivery rate or age range of routine vaccination will be required. Measles vaccine coverage remains far below targets for herd immunity in many countries on the African continent and is likely to be inadequate for achieving rubella elimination. The impact of strategies such as increasing the upper age range eligible for routine vaccination should be considered.

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence.

High risk of a large measles outbreak despite 30 years of measles vaccination in The Netherlands

Our aim was to assess progress towards measles elimination from The Netherlands by studying humoral measles immunity in the Dutch population. A population-based seroepidemiological study was conducted in 2006-2007 (N = 7900). Serum samples were analysed by a bead-based multiplex immunoassay. IgG levels ⩾0·2 IU/ml were considered protective. The overall seroprevalence in the Dutch population was 96%. However, 51% of socio-geographically clustered orthodox Protestant individuals aged <10 years were susceptible. Infants might be susceptible to measles between ages 4 months and 14 months, the age at which maternal antibodies have disappeared and the first measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccination is administered, respectively. Waning of antibody concentrations was slower after the second MMR vaccination than after the first. The Netherlands is at an imminent risk of a measles outbreak in the orthodox Protestant minority. To prevent subsequent transmission to the general population, efforts to protect susceptible age groups are needed.

Epidemiology and clinical characteristics of the Measles outbreak in the Nylon Health District, Douala Cameroon: a retrospective descriptive cross sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Measles is a public health problem especially in South Asia and Africa. Nylon Health District has experienced two measles outbreaks over a period of three years. We hereby describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of the outbreak of February 2011.

METHODS

A retrospective descriptive cross sectional study was conducted in November 2011. All suspected measles cases according to the World Health Organization case definition line listed in the district service were included. Data was analyzed using Epi Info version 3.5.3 for Windows and Microsoft Office Excel 2010. An epidemic curve was drawn and proportions per variable category were estimated and presented in frequency tables.

RESULTS

The outbreak started from the 4(th) to the 25(th) epidemiological week of 2011 with a peak on the 10(th) week after onset. The attack and case fatality rates were 34/100000 inhabitants and zero respectively. Females and infants aged 9-59 months represented 97(63.4%) and 75(49%) of cases respectively. Bonadiwoto health area alone had 81(52.9%) of cases. Of the 153 cases, only 34(22.2%) had a card-confirmed measles vaccination status. Active community surveillance permitted the identification of 42(27.5%) cases.

CONCLUSION

Low measles vaccine coverage rate over the past years in the Nylon health district led to the accumulation of susceptible individuals which coupled with poor environmental conditions favoured inter-human spread of measles. Developing novel strategies to vaccinate every child, especially the Hard-to-Reach in the slums of the district will help to prevent future outbreaks.

Exposure of California kindergartners to students with personal belief exemptions from mandated school entry vaccinations

OBJECTIVES

Personal belief exemptions (PBEs) from mandated school entry vaccinations have increased in California over the past decade. Infectious disease outbreaks in the state may be associated with the aggregation of intentionally unvaccinated children within schools. We sought to quantify the exposure of California kindergartners to children with PBEs at school.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional California Department of Public Health data on 3 kindergarten cohorts to define and calculate multiple measures of exposure to children with exemptions, including interaction and aggregation indices, for the state as a whole (2008-2010) and by county (2010).

RESULTS

In 2010, the PBE rate in California was 2.3 per 100 students, and the school PBE rate for the average kindergartner with a PBE was 15.6 per 100. More than 7000 kindergartners in California attend schools with PBE rates greater than 20 per 100, including 2700 kindergartners with PBEs. Exposure measures vary considerably across counties.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest increasing levels of exposure among kindergarten students in California to other kindergartners with PBEs. Our data provide a concrete set of metrics through which public health and education officials can identify high-risk areas as targets for policy and programmatic interventions.

Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy

As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.

Measuring the performance of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys: a likelihood framework and retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The performance of routine and supplemental immunization activities is usually measured by the administrative method: dividing the number of doses distributed by the size of the target population. This method leads to coverage estimates that are sometimes impossible (e.g., vaccination of 102% of the target population), and are generally inconsistent with the proportion found to be vaccinated in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We describe a method that estimates the fraction of the population accessible to vaccination activities, as well as within-campaign inefficiencies, thus providing a consistent estimate of vaccination coverage.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a likelihood framework for estimating the effective coverage of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys of vaccine coverage combined with administrative data. We applied our method to measles vaccination in three African countries: Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone, using data from each country's most recent DHS survey and administrative coverage data reported to the World Health Organization. We estimate that 93% (95% CI: 91, 94) of the population in Ghana was ever covered by any measles vaccination activity, 77% (95% CI: 78, 81) in Madagascar, and 69% (95% CI: 67, 70) in Sierra Leone. "Within-activity" inefficiencies were estimated to be low in Ghana, and higher in Sierra Leone and Madagascar. Our model successfully fits age-specific vaccination coverage levels seen in DHS data, which differ markedly from those predicted by naïve extrapolation from country-reported and World Health Organization-adjusted vaccination coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining administrative data with survey data substantially improves estimates of vaccination coverage. Estimates of the inefficiency of past vaccination activities and the proportion not covered by any activity allow us to more accurately predict the results of future activities and provide insight into the ways in which vaccination programs are failing to meet their goals. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis

The epidemiology of whooping cough (pertussis) remains enigmatic. A leading cause of infant mortality globally, its resurgence in several developed nations--despite the availability and use of vaccines for many decades--has caused alarm. We combined data from a singular natural experiment and a detailed contact network study to show that age-specific contact patterns alone can explain shifts in prevalence and age-stratified incidence in the vaccine era. The practical implications of our results are notable: Ignoring age-structured contacts is likely to result in misinterpretation of epidemiological data and potentially costly policy missteps.

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Estimation of measles vaccine efficacy and critical vaccination coverage in a highly vaccinated population

Measles is a highly infectious disease that has been targeted for elimination from four WHO regions. Whether and under which conditions this goal is feasible is, however, uncertain since outbreaks have been documented in populations with high vaccination coverage (more than 90%). Here, we use the example of a large outbreak in a German public school to show how estimates of key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number (R(0)), vaccine efficacy (VE(S)) and critical vaccination coverage (p(c)) can be obtained from partially observed outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations. Our analyses rely on Bayesian methods of inference based on the final size distribution of outbreak size, and use data which are easily collected. For the German public school the analyses indicate that the basic reproduction number of measles is higher than previously thought (R(0) = 30.8, 95% credible interval: 23.6-40.4), that the vaccine is highly effective in preventing infection (VE(S) = 0.997, 95% credible interval: 0.993-0.999), and that a vaccination coverage in excess of 95 per cent may be necessary to achieve herd immunity (p(c) = 0.971, 95% credible interval: 0.961-0.978). We discuss the implications for measles elimination from highly vaccinated populations.

Measles outbreak linked to a minority group in Austria, 2008

We report on a measles outbreak originating in an anthroposophic community in Austria, 2008. A total of 394 (94·9%) cases fulfilled the outbreak case definition including 168 cases affiliated to the anthroposophic community. The source case was a school pupil from Switzerland. The Austrian outbreak strain was genotype D5, indistinguishable from the Swiss outbreak strain. A school-based retrospective cohort study in the anthroposophic school demonstrated a vaccine effectiveness of 97·3% in pupils who had received a single dose of measles-containing vaccine and 100% in those who had received two doses. The vaccination coverage of the cases in the anthroposophic community was 0·6%. Of the 226 outbreak cases not belonging to the anthroposophic community, the 10–24 years age group was the most affected. Our findings underline the epidemiological significance of suboptimal vaccination coverage in anthroposophic communities and in older age groups of the general population in facilitating measles virus circulation. The findings of this outbreak investigation suggest that the WHO European Region is unlikely to achieve its 2010 target for measles and rubella elimination.

Measles in a highly vaccinated society: the 2007-08 outbreak in Israel

BACKGROUND

Despite success in controlling measles through a national immunization program, Israel recently experienced its largest measles outbreak since 1994.

METHODS

Using data reported by health district offices to the Ministry of Health, an epidemiological analysis of the 2007-08 measles outbreak was performed.

RESULTS

1467 measles cases were reported in Israel, primarily among ultra-orthodox Jewish communities in the Jerusalem Health District and to a lesser extent in other areas. The highest age-specific incidence rate (122.5 per 100,000) occurred among infants. 38.6% of all measles patients were under the age of five, and 53.4% were under the age of ten. 186 patients (12.7%) were hospitalized; there were no fatalities. Only 4.6% of measles patients had been fully vaccinated for their age.

CONCLUSION

To minimize the risk of future outbreaks in Israel, successful marketing of the MMR vaccine to under-vaccinated sub-groups is essential.