Drivers of inequality in Millennium Development Goal progress: a statistical analysis

Better individual-level risk models can improve the targeting and life-saving potential of early-mortality interventions

Infant mortality remains high and uneven in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Even low-cost, highly effective therapies can only save lives in proportion to how successfully they can be targeted to those children who, absent the treatment, would have died. This places great value on maximizing the accuracy of any targeting or means-testing algorithm. Yet, the interventions that countries deploy in hopes of reducing mortality are often targeted based on simple models of wealth or income or a few additional variables. Examining 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we illustrate the use of flexible (machine learning) risk models employing up to 25 generally available pre-birth variables from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Using these models, we construct risk scores such that the 10 percent of the population at highest risk account for 15-30 percent of infant mortality, depending on the country. Successful targeting in these models turned on several variables other than wealth, while models that employ only wealth data perform little or no better than chance. Consequently, employing such data and models to predict high-risk births in the countries studied flexibly could substantially improve the targeting and thus the life-saving potential of existing interventions.

The impact of partner's behaviour on pregnancy related outcomes and safe child-birth in Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Pakistan is one of the nations with the worst statistics for pregnancy-related outcomes. Health programmes in underdeveloped nations frequently ignore the role of partners in maternal health, which is a crucial contributing factor in these worst situations. This research study aims to explore the role of husbands in maternity care and safe childbirth in Pakistan.

METHODS

The data for this study comes from the Pakistan Maternal Mortality Survey 2019. The k-Modes clustering algorithm was implemented to generate clusters from the dataset. Cluster profiling was used to identify the problems in pregnancy-related outcomes in cases where women live away from their partners. The chi-square test and logistic regression model were fitted to identify the significant factors associated with women's health and safe childbirth.

RESULTS

The finding of the study reveals that the partner's support during and after pregnancy plays a vital role in maternal health and safe child-birth. It was revealed that the women living away from their partners have certain health problems during pregnancy. These problems include Vaginal bleeding, Excessive vomiting, Chest pain, Cough, High B.P, Excessive weight gain, Body aches, Swelling of feet, and Swelling of the face. This also leads to complications and health problems in the postpartum period. Due to a lack of antenatal care from the spouse during pregnancy, the women who lived away from their partners lost their pregnancies.

CONCLUSION

The study concludes that the husband's emotional and financial support substantially impacts the overall health of expecting mothers and the safety of delivery in Pakistan. Given its potential advantages for mother and child health outcomes, male engagement in health education must be acknowledged and addressed. The finding of the study is of immense importance, as it guides the policymakers to arrange various awareness programs for the male partners to support their pregnant spouse and provide proper antenatal care.

An Evolutionary Model of “Sexual Conflict” Over Women's Age at Marriage: Implications for Child Mortality and Undernutrition

Background

Early women's marriage is associated with adverse outcomes for mothers and their offspring, including reduced human capital and increased child undernutrition and mortality. Despite preventive efforts, it remains common in many populations and is often favored by cultural norms. A key question is why it remains common, given such penalties. Using an evolutionary perspective, a simple mathematical model was developed to explore women's optimal marriage age under different circumstances, if the sole aim were to maximize maternal or paternal lifetime reproductive fitness (surviving offspring).

Methods

The model was based on several assumptions, supported by empirical evidence, regarding relationships between women's marital age and parental and offspring outcomes. It assumes that later marriage promotes women's autonomy, enhancing control over fertility and childcare, but increases paternity uncertainty. Given these assumptions, optimal marriage ages for maximizing maternal and paternal fitness were calculated. The basic model was then used to simulate environmental changes or public health interventions, including shifts in child mortality, suppression of women's autonomy, or promoting women's contraception or education.

Results

In the basic model, paternal fitness is maximized at lower women's marriage age than is maternal fitness, with the paternal optimum worsening child undernutrition and mortality. A family planning intervention delays marriage age and reduces child mortality and undernutrition, at a cost to paternal but not maternal fitness. Reductions in child mortality favor earlier marriage but increase child undernutrition, whereas ecological shocks that increase child mortality favor later marriage but reduce fitness of both parents. An education intervention favors later marriage and reduces child mortality and undernutrition, but at a cost to paternal fitness. Efforts to suppress maternal autonomy substantially increase fitness of both parents, but only if other members of the household provide compensatory childcare.

Conclusion

Early women's marriage maximizes paternal fitness despite relatively high child mortality and undernutrition, by increasing fertility and reducing paternity uncertainty. This tension between the sexes over the optimal marriage age is sensitive to ecological stresses or interventions. Education interventions seem most likely to improve maternal and child outcomes, but may be resisted by males and their kin as they may reduce paternal fitness.

ICT and Women's Health: An Examination of the Impact of ICT on Maternal Health in SADC States

Attainment of sexual and reproductive health is regarded as a human rights matter. Notwithstanding this, maternal mortality continues to be a major public health concern in low-income countries, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa. Maternal mortality remains high in Africa, yet there are information communication technologies (ICTs) (such as the internet, mobile communication, social media, and community radios) that have the potential to make a difference. Making effective use of all of these ICTs can considerably decrease preventable maternal deaths. ICTs, particularly mobile devices, offer a platform for access to health information and services that can bring change in areas where health infrastructure and resources are often limited. However, for Southern Africa, maternal mortality remains high despite the presence of ICT tools that have transformative potential to improve maternal health. In light of this, this study sought to examine the impact of ICT on maternal health. The study was quantitative in nature, and it used panel data that covered the period from 2000-2018. The Mean Group and Pooled Mean Group cointegration techniques and a generalised method of moments panel technique were used for estimation purposes. Results showed that ICT has a negative effect on maternal health. This shows that ICT tools contribute positively to maternal health. The study gave a number of recommendations. The mobile gender gap should be closed (digital inclusion), mobile network connectivity boosted, and digital platforms must be created in order to enhance the transformative potential of ICT in improving health outcomes.

Peer support for people with chronic conditions: a systematic review of reviews

Background

People with chronic conditions experience functional impairment, lower quality of life, and greater economic hardship and poverty. Social isolation and loneliness are common for people with chronic conditions, with multiple co-occurring chronic conditions predicting an increased risk of loneliness. Peer support is a socially driven intervention involving people with lived experience of a condition helping others to manage the same condition, potentially offering a sense of connectedness and purpose, and experiential knowledge to manage disease. However, it is unclear what outcomes are important to patients across the spectrum of chronic conditions, what works and for whom. The aims of this review were to (1) collate peer support intervention components, (2) collate the outcome domains used to evaluate peer support, (3) synthesise evidence of effectiveness, and (4) identify the mechanisms of effect, for people with chronic conditions.

Methods

A systematic review of reviews was conducted. Reviews were included if they reported on formal peer support between adults or children with one or more chronic condition. Data were analysed using narrative synthesis.

Results

The search identified 6222 unique publications. Thirty-one publications were eligible for inclusion. Components of peer support were organised into nine categories: social support, psychological support, practical support, empowerment, condition monitoring and treatment adherence, informational support, behavioural change, encouragement and motivation, and physical training. Fifty-five outcome domains were identified. Quality of life, and self-efficacy were the most measured outcome domains identified. Most reviews reported positive but non-significant effects.

Conclusions

The effectiveness of peer support is unclear and there are inconsistencies in how peers are defined, a lack of clarity in research design and intervention reporting, and widely variable outcome measurement. This review presents a range of components of peer support interventions that may be of interest to clinicians developing new support programmes. However, it is unclear precisely what components to use and with whom. Therefore, implementation of support in different clinical settings may benefit from participatory action research so that services may reflect local need.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07816-7.

Uneven economic burden of non-communicable diseases among Indian households: A comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading global cause of death and disproportionately concentrate among those living in low-income and middle-income countries. However, its economic impact on households remains less well known in the Indian context. This study aims to assess the economic impact of NCDs in terms of out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and its catastrophic impact on NCDs affected households in India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were collected from the 75th round of the National Sample Survey Office, Government of India, conducted in the year 2017-18. This is the latest round of data available on health, which constitutes a sample of 113,823 households. The collection of data is based on a stratified multi-stage sampling method. Generalised Linear Regression model was employed to identify the socio-economic covariates associated with the catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) on hospitalisation.

RESULTS

The result shows a higher burden of OOPE on NCDs affected households. The mean expenditure by NCDs households in public hospitals is INR 13,170 which is more than twice as compared to the non-NCDs households INR 6,245. Particularly, the proportion of total medical expenditure incurred on medicines (0.39) and diagnostics (0.15) is troublesome for households with NCDs, treated in public hospitals. Moreover, results from the generalised linear regression model confirm the significant relationship between CHE with residence, caste, religion, household size, and economic status of households. The intensity of CHE is more for the households who are poor, drinking unsafe water, using firewood as cooking fuel, and household size of 1-5 members.

CONCLUSION

Therefore, an urgent need for a prevention strategy should be made by the government to protect households from the economic burden of NCDs. Specifically, to reduce the burden of CHE associated with NCDs, a customised disease-specific health insurance package should be introduced by the government of India in both public and private facilities.

Survival and predictors of death in tuberculosis/HIV coinfection cases in Porto Alegre, Brazil: A historical cohort from 2009 to 2013

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a curable disease, which remains the leading cause of death among infectious diseases worldwide, and it is the leading cause of death in people living with HIV. The purpose is to examine survival and predictors of death in Tuberculosis/HIV coinfection cases from 2009 to 2013.

METHODS

We estimated the survival of 2,417 TB/HIV coinfection cases in Porto Alegre, from diagnosis up to 85 months of follow-up. We estimated hazard ratios and survival curves.

RESULTS

The adjusted risk ratio (aRR) for death, by age, hospitalization, and Directly Observed Treatment was 4.58 for new cases (95% CI: 1.14-18.4), 4.51 for recurrence (95% CI: 1.11-18.4) and 4.53 for return after abandonment (95% CI: 1.12-18.4). The average survival time was 72.56 ± 1.57 months for those who underwent Directly Observed Treatment and 62.61 ± 0.77 for those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS

Case classification, age, and hospitalization are predictors of death. The occurrence of Directly Observed Treatment was a protective factor that increased the probability of survival. Policies aimed at reducing the mortality of patients with TB/HIV coinfection are needed.

Why are the Pakistani maternal, fetal and newborn outcomes so poor compared to other low and middle-income countries?

BACKGROUND

Pakistan has among the poorest pregnancy outcomes worldwide, significantly worse than many other low-resource countries. The reasons for these differences are not clear. In this study, we compared pregnancy outcomes in Pakistan to other low-resource countries and explored factors that might help explain these differences.

METHODS

The Global Network (GN) Maternal Newborn Health Registry (MNHR) is a prospective, population-based observational study that includes all pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes in defined geographic communities in six low-middle income countries (India, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, Kenya, Zambia). Study staff enroll women in early pregnancy and follow-up soon after delivery and at 42 days to ascertain delivery, neonatal, and maternal outcomes. We analyzed the maternal mortality ratios (MMR), neonatal mortality rates (NMR), stillbirth rates, and potential explanatory factors from 2010 to 2018 across the GN sites.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2018, there were 91,076 births in Pakistan and 456,276 births in the other GN sites combined. The MMR in Pakistan was 319 per 100,000 live births compared to an average of 124 in the other sites, while the Pakistan NMR was 49.4 per 1,000 live births compared to 20.4 in the other sites. The stillbirth rate in Pakistan was 53.5 per 1000 births compared to 23.2 for the other sites. Preterm birth and low birthweight rates were also substantially higher than the other sites combined. Within weight ranges, the Pakistani site generally had significantly higher rates of stillbirth and neonatal mortality than the other sites combined, with differences increasing as birthweights increased. By nearly every measure, medical care for pregnant women and their newborns in the Pakistan sites was worse than at the other sites combined.

CONCLUSION

The Pakistani pregnancy outcomes are much worse than those in the other GN sites. Reasons for these poorer outcomes likely include that the Pakistani sites' reproductive-aged women are largely poorly educated, undernourished, anemic, and deliver a high percentage of preterm and low-birthweight babies in settings of often inadequate maternal and newborn care. By addressing the issues highlighted in this paper there appears to be substantial room for improvements in Pakistan's pregnancy outcomes.

Leave no child behind: Using data from 1.7 million children from 67 developing countries to measure inequality within and between groups of births and to identify left behind populations

Background

Goal 3.2 from the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) calls for reductions in national averages of Under-5 Mortality. However, it is well known that within countries these reductions can coexist with left behind populations that have mortality rates higher than national averages. To measure inequality in under-5 mortality and to identify left behind populations, mortality rates are often disaggregated by socioeconomic status within countries. While socioeconomic disparities are important, this approach does not quantify within group variability since births from the same socioeconomic group may have different mortality risks. This is the case because mortality risk depends on several risk factors and their interactions and births from the same socioeconomic group may have different risk factor combinations. Therefore mortality risk can be highly variable within socioeconomic groups. We develop a comprehensive approach using information from multiple risk factors simultaneously to measure inequality in mortality and to identify left behind populations.

Methods

We use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data on 1,691,039 births from 182 different surveys from 67 low and middle income countries, 51 of which had at least two surveys. We estimate mortality risk for each child in the data using a Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model. We include commonly used risk factors for monitoring inequality in early life mortality for the SDG as well as their interactions. We quantify variability in mortality risk within and between socioeconomic groups and describe the highest risk sub-populations.

Findings

For all countries there is more variability in mortality within socioeconomic groups than between them. Within countries, socioeconomic membership usually explains less than 20% of the total variation in mortality risk. In contrast, country of birth explains 19% of the total variance in mortality risk. Targeting the 20% highest risk children based on our model better identifies under-5 deaths than targeting the 20% poorest. For all surveys, we report efficiency gains from 26% in Mali to 578% in Guyana. High risk births tend to be births from mothers who are in the lowest socioeconomic group, live in rural areas and/or have already experienced a prior death of a child.

Interpretation

While important, differences in under-5 mortality across socioeconomic groups do not explain most of overall inequality in mortality risk because births from the same socioeconomic groups have different mortality risks. Similarly, policy makers can reach the highest risk children by targeting births based on several risk factors (socioeconomic status, residing in rural areas, having a previous death of a child and more) instead of using a single risk factor such as socioeconomic status. We suggest that researchers and policy makers monitor inequality in under-5 mortality using multiple risk factors simultaneously, quantifying inequality as a function of several risk factors to identify left behind populations in need of policy interventions and to help monitor progress toward the SDG.

Assessing health system challenges and opportunities for better noncommunicable disease outcomes: the case of Mauritius

BACKGROUND

The objectives of the study reported in this paper were: (a) to score the coverage of core NCD population-based interventions and individual services in Mauritius; (b) to analyse and score the presence of 15 common health system challenges that impede delivery of core NCD interventions and services in Mauritius; and (c) to provide policy recommendations for Mauritius to address health system barriers to delivery of NCD interventions and services.

METHODS

The Mauritius country assessment applied the guidelines developed by the World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe for systematically scoring coverage of NCD interventions and assessing health system challenges for improving NCD outcomes. The assessment used qualitative research design approach.

RESULTS

Of the 24 core population-based interventions for addressing key NCD risk factors, 16.7% were rated extensive, 37.5% moderate and 45.8% limited. Three (20%), 8 (53%) and 4 (27%) of the 15 individual/personal CVD, diabetes and cancer services were rated extensive, moderate and limited respectively. The top five health system challenges hampering scale-up of coverage of population-based NCD interventions in Mauritius were inadequate interagency cooperation; limited application of explicit priority setting approaches; inadequate change management; sub-optimal distribution and mix human resources; insufficient population empowerment; and insufficient political commitment. The top five challenges had average scores of between 3.1 (interagency cooperation) and 2.4 (distribution and mix of human resources). The top five health system challenges constraining expansion in coverage of individual NCD services were limited integration of evidence into practice; limited use of explicit priority-setting approaches; inadequate application of information and technology solutions; insufficient population empowerment; and sub-optimal distribution and mix of human resources. The top five challenges for individual interventions had mean scores varying between 2.6 (integration of evidence into practice) and 1.7 (distribution and mix of human resources).

CONCLUSIONS

Mauritius needs to increase its domestic general government investments into the national health system and requisite multi-sectoral action to address the priority health system challenges with a view of bridging the existing gaps in coverage of NCD population-based interventions and individual services.

The effect of family doctor-contracted services on noncommunicable disease self-management in Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a major threat to population health worldwide. In Shanghai, China, a new pattern of NCD management-self-management-has been developed in community health service centres (CHSCs).

OBJECTIVE

To clarify how contracting with CHSC-based family doctors (FDs) influences the engagement in and effectiveness of self-management behaviour among NCD patients.

METHOD

We conducted two waves of a questionnaire survey (in 2013 and 2016) to collect data on patients with NCDs. Separate logistic regression models and longitudinal analysis were performed to examine the effect of contracting with an FD on NCD self-management and the effectiveness of this self-management.

RESULTS

Nearly all contracted patients (80.79%) had implemented NCD self-management, while only 55.57% of non-contracted patients did so. The self-management effectiveness rate was also higher among contracted patients than among non-contracted ones (86.66% vs. 54.79%). In the population-averaged models, contracted patients had 2.25 and 2.91 times greater odds of implementing self-management and reporting that the self-management was effective, respectively, after controlling for all related variables. Additionally, awareness of FD-contracted services, satisfaction with CHSCs, and experiencing first contact at CHSCs had positive impacts on the implementation and effectiveness of self-management.

CONCLUSIONS

FDs were important for ensuring that NCD patients engaged in self-management behaviour, the most common form of which was focus group. Participation in NCD focus groups may be key for attaining the effects of self-management, including improved health knowledge, greater health awareness, more frequent engagement in health behaviour, and, most importantly, greater practice of self-monitoring. Self-management might help to achieve greater NCD control.

Good governance, public health expenditures, urbanization and child undernutrition Nexus in Ethiopia: an ecological analysis

Background

Child undernutrition remains the major public health problem in low and middle-income countries including Ethiopia. The effects of good governance, urbanization and public health expenditure on childhood undernutrition are not well studied in developing countries. The objective of the study is to examine the relationship between quality of governance, public health expenditures, urbanization and child undernutrition in Ethiopia.

Methods

This is pooled data analysis with ecological design. We obtained data on childhood undernutrition from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) that were conducted in 2000, 2005, 2011 and 2016. Additionally, data on quality of governance for Ethiopia were extracted from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) and public health spending and urbanization were obtained from the World Development Indicators and United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP) respectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis were done to assess the relationship between governance, public health expenditure and urbanization with childhood undernutrition.

Result

Government effectiveness (adjusted odd ratio (AOR) = 20.7; p = 0.046), regulatory quality (AOR = 0.0077; p = 0.026) and control of corruption (AOR = 0.0019; p = 0.000) were associated with stunting. Similarly, government effectiveness (AOR = 72.2; p = 0.007), regulatory quality (AOR = 0.0015; p = 0.004) and control of corruption (AOR = 0.0005; p = 0.000) were associated with underweight. None of the governance indicators were associated with wasting. On the other hand, there is no statistically significant association observed between public health spending and urbanization with childhood undernutrition. However, other socio-demographic variables play a significant effect on reducing of child undernutrition.

Conclusion

This study indicates that good governance in the country plays a significant role for reducing childhood undernutrition along with other socio-demographic factors. Concerned bodies should focus on improving governance and producing a quality policy and at the same time monitor its implementation and adherence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3822-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Improving program targeting to combat early-life mortality by identifying high-risk births: an application to India

Background

It is widely recognized that there are multiple risk factors for early-life mortality. In practice most interventions to curb early-life mortality target births based on a single risk factor, such as poverty. However, most premature deaths are not from the targeted group. Thus interventions target many births that are at not at high risk and miss many births at high risk.

Methods

Using data from the second wave of Demographic and Health Surveys from India and a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate infant mortality risk for 73.320 infants in India as a function of 4 risk factors. We show how this information can be used to improve program targeting. We compare our novel approach against common programs that target groups based on a single risk factor.

Results

A conventional approach that targets mothers in the lowest quintile of income correctly identifies only 30% of infant deaths. By contrast, using four risk factors simultaneously we identify a group of births of the same size that includes 57% of all deaths. Using the 2012 census to translate these percentages into numbers, there were 25.642.200 births in 2012 and 4.4% died before the age of one. Our approach correctly identifies 643.106 of 1.128.257 infant deaths while poverty only identifies 338.477 infant deaths.

Conclusion

Our approach considerably improves program targeting by identifying more infant deaths than the usual approach that targets births based on a single risk factor. This leads to more efficient program targeting. This is particularly useful in developing countries, where resources are lacking and needs are high.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0172-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impacto macroeconómico generado por la pandemia del VIH/SIDA informado por la literatura internacional desde 1990 a 2013

Introducción: en 2013, ONUSIDA reportó más de 62 millones de personas infectadas por el VIH desde el inicio de la pandemia; de estos, tres millones se infectaron durante el último año. El impacto del VIH/SIDA a nivel individual ha sido bien documentado, mas los efectos de la pandemia a nivel macroeconómico mundial han sido menos estudiados. Objetivo: determinar el impacto a nivel macroeconómico del VIH/SIDA. Materiales y métodos: estudio hermenéutico sobre fuentes secundarias de información que mediante la triangulación de esta con la teoría económica, se proyectaron posibles consecuencias en los países más afectados por la pandemia. Resultados: la pandemia del VIH/SIDA impacta la oferta de trabajo, mediante el aumento de la morbilidad y mortalidad. El SIDA reduce la productividad laboral, creando así crisis fiscales. El gasto público relacionado con el VIH/SIDA aumentará dentro del rango de 0,2% y 3,5% del presupuesto del gobierno. La baja productividad del sector primario nacional aumenta la importación de alimentos. En Sudáfrica para el año 2010 el PIB sería un 17% menor a un escenario sin VIH/SIDA. Conclusiones: se estima que el VIH/SIDA aumentará los costos de mantenimiento de la fuerza de trabajo, alterará la balanza comercial, induciendo déficit fiscal, así como una caída de la productividad cercana al 75% y del crecimiento económico de 5% del PIB en los próximos diez años. Aunque se realizó una búsqueda a nivel mundial, los resultados obtenidos se concentran en África.

Tackling socioeconomic inequalities and non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries under the Sustainable Development agenda

Five Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set targets that relate to the reduction of health inequalities nationally and worldwide. These targets are poverty reduction, health and wellbeing for all, equitable education, gender equality, and reduction of inequalities within and between countries. The interaction between inequalities and health is complex: better economic and educational outcomes for households enhance health, low socioeconomic status leads to chronic ill health, and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) reduce income status of households. NCDs account for most causes of early death and disability worldwide, so it is alarming that strong scientific evidence suggests an increase in the clustering of non-communicable conditions with low socioeconomic status in low-income and middle-income countries since 2000, as previously seen in high-income settings. These conditions include tobacco use, obesity, hypertension, cancer, and diabetes. Strong evidence from 283 studies overwhelmingly supports a positive association between low-income, low socioeconomic status, or low educational status and NCDs. The associations have been differentiated by sex in only four studies. Health is a key driver in the SDGs, and reduction of health inequalities and NCDs should become key in the promotion of the overall SDG agenda. A sustained reduction of general inequalities in income status, education, and gender within and between countries would enhance worldwide equality in health. To end poverty through elimination of its causes, NCD programmes should be included in the development agenda. National programmes should mitigate social and health shocks to protect the poor from events that worsen their frail socioeconomic condition and health status. Programmes related to universal health coverage of NCDs should specifically target susceptible populations, such as elderly people, who are most at risk. Growing inequalities in access to resources for prevention and treatment need to be addressed through improved international regulations across jurisdictions that eliminate the legal and practical barriers in the implementation of non-communicable disease control.

The impact of HIV prevalence, conflict, corruption, and GDP/capita on treatment cascades: data from 137 countries

OBJECTIVE

In 2014, UNAIDS and partners set the 90-90-90 targets for the HIV treatment cascade. Multiple social, political and structural factors might influence progress towards these targets. We assessed how close countries and regions are to reaching these targets, and compared cascade outcomes with HIV prevalence, gross domestic product (GDP)/capita, conflict and corruption.

METHODS

Country-level HIV cascade data on diagnosis, ART coverage and viral suppression, from 2010 to 2016 were extracted from national reports, published papers and the www.AIDSinfoOnline database, and analysed. Weighted least-squares regression was used to assess predictors of cascade achievement: region, HIV prevalence, GDP/capita, the 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which is an international ranking system, and the 2016 Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks all countries based on three main categories: societal safety, militarisation and conflict.

RESULTS

Data were available for diagnosis for 84 countries, ART coverage for 137 countries, and viral suppression for 94 countries. Regions with the lowest ART coverage were South-east Asia and Pacific (36%), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (17%), and Middle East and North Africa (13%). Lower HIV prevalence was associated with poorer cascade results. Countries with higher GDP/capita achieved higher ART coverage (P<0.001). Furthermore, countries with lower levels of peace and higher corruption had lower ART coverage (P<0.001). Countries with a GPI >2.5 all had ART coverage of <40%.

CONCLUSION

Only one country has reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. International comparison remains difficult due to heterogeneous data reporting. Difficulty meeting UNAIDS targets is associated with lower GDP/capita, lower HIV prevalence, higher corruption and conflict levels.

Measuring health systems strength and its impact: experiences from the African Health Initiative

Background

Health systems are essential platforms for accessible, quality health services, and population health improvements. Global health initiatives have dramatically increased health resources; however, funding to strengthen health systems has not increased commensurately, partially due to concerns about health system complexity and evidence gaps demonstrating health outcome improvements. In 2009, the African Health Initiative of the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation began supporting Population Health Implementation and Training Partnership projects in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze significant advances in strengthening health systems. This manuscript reflects on the experience of establishing an evaluation framework to measure health systems strength, and associate measures with health outcomes, as part of this Initiative.

Methods

Using the World Health Organization’s health systems building block framework, the Partnerships present novel approaches to measure health systems building blocks and summarize data across and within building blocks to facilitate analytic procedures. Three Partnerships developed summary measures spanning the building blocks using principal component analysis (Ghana and Tanzania) or the balanced scorecard (Zambia). Other Partnerships developed summary measures to simplify multiple indicators within individual building blocks, including health information systems (Mozambique), and service delivery (Rwanda). At the end of the project intervention period, one to two key informants from each Partnership’s leadership team were asked to list – in rank order – the importance of the six building blocks in relation to their intervention.

Results

Though there were differences across Partnerships, service delivery and information systems were reported to be the most common focus of interventions, followed by health workforce and leadership and governance. Medical products, vaccines and technologies, and health financing, were the building blocks reported to be of lower focus.

Conclusion

The African Health Initiative experience furthers the science of evaluation for health systems strengthening, highlighting areas for further methodological development – including the development of valid, feasible measures sensitive to interventions in multiple contexts (particularly in leadership and governance) and describing interactions across building blocks; in developing summary statistics to facilitate testing intervention effects on health systems and associations with health status; and designing appropriate analytic models for complex, multi-level open health systems.

Smoking and projected cardiovascular risk in an HIV-positive Asian regional cohort

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence and characteristics associated with current smoking in an Asian HIV-positive cohort, to calculate the predictive risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infarction (MI), and to identify the impact that simulated interventions may have.

METHODS

Logistic regression analysis was used to distinguish associated current smoking characteristics. Five-year predictive risks of CVD, CHD and MI and the impact of simulated interventions were calculated utilizing the Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs Study (D:A:D) algorithm.

RESULTS

Smoking status data were collected from 4274 participants and 1496 of these had sufficient data for simulated intervention calculations. Current smoking prevalence in these two groups was similar (23.2% vs. 19.9%, respectively). Characteristics associated with current smoking included age > 50 years compared with 30-39 years [odds ratio (OR) 0.65; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.83], HIV exposure through injecting drug use compared with heterosexual exposure (OR 3.03; 95% CI 2.25-4.07), and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at study sites in Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan and Vietnam in comparison to Thailand (all OR > 2). Women were less likely to smoke than men (OR 0.11; 95% CI 0.08-0.14). In simulated interventions, smoking cessation demonstrated the greatest impact in reducing CVD and CHD risk and closely approximated the impact of switching from abacavir to an alternate antiretroviral in the reduction of 5-year MI risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple interventions could reduce CVD, CHD and MI risk in Asian HIV-positive patients, with smoking cessation potentially being the most influential.

Influence of distance between residence and health facilities on non-communicable diseases: An assessment over hypertension and diabetes in Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

This paper reflected on the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Bangladesh, which is spreading rapidly in low-income countries. The rationale of constructing more health centers for addressing NCDs was assessed in this paper by determining the relationship between prevalence of NCDs, particularly hypertension and diabetes, and distance to health facilities.

METHODS

From BDHS (Bangladesh Health and Demographic Survey) 2011 data set, 7544 samples were analyzed to demonstrate association between Non-communicable diseases (NCD) and distance from respondents' home to health facilities like hospitals, community clinics, pharmacies or doctors' chambers, and community facilities like market, post office or cinema hall. Bivariate analysis was conducted between accessibility to health facilities and prevalence of the diseases. The causal relationship between the spatial effects and the prevalence of the diseases were analyzed by applying Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) was fitted.

RESULTS

Fitting linear mixed effect models, we found that hypertension and diabetes react differently with various spatial effects. Distance from home to hospital had significant effect (P < 0.001) on hypertension showing people living further from the facilities or town centers seemed to be less hypertensive, whereas diabetes showed no such affiliation.

CONCLUSION

Higher prevalence of diabetes (40.9%) over hypertension (26.5%) in people aging 35 or higher, have appeared to have caused the difference, which concluded that each non-communicable disease should be dealt to its own merit for policy making instead considering as a group of diseases.

A Review of Ranibizumab for the Treatment of Diabetic Retinopathy

Introduction

Laser photocoagulation has been the standard treatment for diabetic macular edema (DME) and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) for several decades. The discovery of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and the subsequent determination of its critical role in the development DME and PDR has led to the development of VEGF inhibitory drugs. Ranibizumab was the first anti-VEGF drug approved for the treatment of both DME and diabetic retinopathy in eyes with DME.

Methods

Medline searches with the keywords "ranibizumab," "diabetic macular edema," and "proliferative diabetic retinopathy" were performed to identify pertinent pre-clinical studies and clinical trials. Top-line data, with emphasis on pivotal trials, was identified and incorporated into this manuscript. Findings from small uncontrolled trials were generally not used unless they filled important gaps in our understanding of anti-VEGF therapy.

Results

Ranibizumab is a recombinant humanized antibody fragment that binds all isoforms of VEGF-A with high affinity. Three parallel lines of clinical research have produced level I evidence supporting the superiority of ranibizumab over laser photocoagulation for the treatment of DME. Regular injections also lead to improvement in diabetic retinopathy severity scores in a large minority of eyes. Ranibizumab is effective for PDR and produces less visual field loss than laser photocoagulation. It has an excellent safety profile, with low incidence of ocular and systemic adverse events.

Conclusions

Ranibizumab has become a frequently used first-line therapy for the treatment of DME. Emerging data suggest that it may become an important treatment for DR and PDR.

Acute and Chronic Health Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Unfinished Agenda

The concept of a “Double Burden of Disease” conceived in the second half of the last century has by now turned into a success story in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been instrumental in creating the regional and global political momentum to address the “unfinished agenda of infectious diseases” and to fight against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in a concerted and sustainably financed action. An estimated three million children under the age of five have been saved from malaria, and the incidence of new HIV cases in sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by more than half between 2001 and 2012. The concept also created an awareness of the rising epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in this part of the world. It is too early to predict whether or not this success in the area of infectious disease will repeat itself in the domain of non-communicable diseases. There are some obstacles to overcome. The countries of SSA have to integrate the two separately conceived policies and their different funding into one and to avoid competition in resource allocation between the two areas. They need to develop integrated strategies that begin in the primary health care sector and finally they need to define strategies on how to engage constructively with the private sector.

Achieving universal health coverage in South Africa through a district health system approach: conflicting ideologies of health care provision

Background

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has emerged as a major goal for health care delivery in the post-2015 development agenda. It is viewed as a solution to health care needs in low and middle countries with growing enthusiasm at both national and global levels. Throughout the world, however, the paths of countries to UHC have differed. South Africa is currently reforming its health system with UHC through developing a national health insurance (NHI) program. This will be practically achieved through a decentralized approach, the district health system, the main vehicle for delivering services since democracy.

Methods

We utilize a review of relevant documents, conducted between September 2014 and December 2015 of district health systems (DHS) and UHC and their ideological underpinnings, to explore the opportunities and challenges, of the district health system in achieving UHC in South Africa.

Results

Review of data from the NHI pilot districts suggests that as South Africa embarks on reforms toward UHC, there is a need for a minimal universal coverage and emphasis on district particularity and positive discrimination so as to bridge health inequities. The disparities across districts in relation to health profiles/demographics, health delivery performance, management of health institutions or district management capacity, income levels/socio-economic status and social determinants of health, compliance with quality standards and above all the burden of disease can only be minimised through positive discrimination by paying more attention to underserved and disadavantaged communities.

Conclusions

We conclude that in South Africa the DHS is pivotal to health reform and UHC may be best achieved through minimal universal coverage with positive discrimination to ensure disparities across districts in relation to disease burden, human resources, financing and investment, administration and management capacity, service readiness and availability and the health access inequalities are consciously implicated. Yet ideological and practical issues make its achievement problematic.

Importance of Public-Private Partnerships: Strengthening Laboratory Medicine Systems and Clinical Practice in Africa

After the launch of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief in 2003, it became evident that inadequate laboratory systems and services would severely limit the scale-up of human immunodeficiency virus infection prevention, care, and treatment programs. Thus, the Office of the US Global AIDS Coordinator, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Becton, Dickinson and Company developed a public-private partnership (PPP). Between October 2007 and July 2012, the PPP combined the competencies of the public and private sectors to boost sustainable laboratory systems and develop workforce skills in 4 African countries. Key accomplishments of the initiative include measurable and scalable outcomes to strengthen national capacities to build technical skills, develop sample referral networks, map disease prevalence, support evidence-based health programming, and drive continuous quality improvement in laboratories. This report details lessons learned from our experience and a series of recommendations on how to achieve successful PPPs.

Political determinants of progress in the MDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lagged furthest behind in achieving targets for the millennium development goals (MDG). We investigate the hypothesis that its slow progress is influenced by political factors. Longitudinal data on three health MDG indicators: under-five mortality, maternal mortality and HIV prevalence rates were collated from 1990 to 2012 in 48 countries. Countries were grouped into geo-political and eco-political groups. Groupings were based on conflict trends in geographical regions and the International Monetary Fund's classification of SSA countries based on gross national income and development assistance respectively. Cumulative progress in each group was derived and main effects tested using ANOVA. Correlation analysis was conducted between political variables - POLITY 2, fragile state index (FSI), voter turnout rates, civil liberty scores (CLS) and the health variables. Our results suggest a significant main effect of eco-political and geo-political groups on some of the health variables. Political conflict as measured by FSI and political participation as measured by CLS were stronger predictors of slow progress in reducing under-five mortality rates and maternal mortality ratios. Our findings highlight the need for further research on political determinants of mortality in SSA. Cohesive effort should focus on strengthening countries' political, economic and social capacities in order to achieve sustainable goals beyond 2015.

Associations of gender inequality with child malnutrition and mortality across 96 countries

National efforts to reduce low birth weight (LBW) and child malnutrition and mortality prioritise economic growth. However, this may be ineffective, while rising gross domestic product (GDP) also imposes health costs, such as obesity and non-communicable disease. There is a need to identify other potential routes for improving child health. We investigated associations of the Gender Inequality Index (GII), a national marker of women's disadvantages in reproductive health, empowerment and labour market participation, with the prevalence of LBW, child malnutrition (stunting and wasting) and mortality under 5 years in 96 countries, adjusting for national GDP. The GII displaced GDP as a predictor of LBW, explaining 36% of the variance. Independent of GDP, the GII explained 10% of the variance in wasting and stunting and 41% of the variance in child mortality. Simulations indicated that reducing GII could lead to major reductions in LBW, child malnutrition and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Independent of national wealth, reducing women's disempowerment relative to men may reduce LBW and promote child nutritional status and survival. Longitudinal studies are now needed to evaluate the impact of efforts to reduce societal gender inequality.

Socioeconomic status and cardiovascular risk in urban South Asia: The CARRS Study

BACKGROUND

Although South Asians experience cardiovascular disease (CVD) and risk factors at an early age, the distribution of CVD risks across the socioeconomic spectrum remains unclear.

METHODS

We analysed the 2011 Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia survey data including 16,288 non-pregnant adults (≥20 years) that are representative of Chennai and Delhi, India, and Karachi, Pakistan. Socioeconomic status (SES) was defined by highest education (primary schooling, high/secondary schooling, college graduate or greater); wealth tertiles (low, middle, high household assets) and occupation (not working outside home, semi/unskilled, skilled, white-collar work). We estimated age and sex-standardized prevalence of behavioural (daily fruit/vegetables; tobacco use), weight (body mass index; waist-to-height ratio) and metabolic risk factors (diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia; hypo-HDL; and hypertriglyceridaemia) by each SES category.

RESULTS

Across cities, 61.2% and 16.1% completed secondary and college educations, respectively; 52.8% reported not working, 22.9% were unskilled; 21.3% were skilled and 3.1% were white-collar workers. For behavioural risk factors, low fruit/vegetable intake, smoked and smokeless tobacco use were more prevalent in lowest education, wealthy and occupation (for men only) groups compared to higher SES counterparts, while weight-related risks (body mass index 25.0-29.9 and ≥30 kg/m(2); waist-to-height ratio ≥0.5) were more common in higher educated and wealthy groups, and technical/professional men. For metabolic risks, a higher prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemias was observed in more educated and affluent groups, with unclear patterns across occupation groups.

CONCLUSIONS

SES-CVD patterns are heterogeneous, suggesting customized interventions for different SES groups may be warranted. Different behavioural, weight, and metabolic risk factor prevalence patterns across SES indicators may signal on-going epidemiological transition in South Asia.

Current recommendations on managing tuberculosis patients with diabetes & its epidemiology

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE

Tuberculosis (TB) & Diabetes Mellitus (DM) are common diseases globally & both are mutually on rising trend, and co-existing together. To analyze the effect of TB on diabetes by causing hyperglycemia and causing impaired glucose tolerance. Impaired glucose tolerance that is one of the major risk factor for developing diabetes.

STUDY DESIGN

Literature study regarding co-association of TB & DM with its complications and management through published articles. The drugs used to treat tuberculosis especially rifampicin and isoniazid interacts with oral anti-diabetic drugs and can lead to suboptimal glycemic control. Therefore the interaction of diabetes and tuberculosis is at multiple levels exacerbating each other. DM is also well recognized as an independent risk factor for lower respiratory tract infection. Infection with, staphylococcus aureus, gram negative bacteria, and fungi occur more frequently in diabetics.

RESULT & CONCLUSION

The prevalence of diabetes globally is projected to rise from the current estimate of 150 million to 200 million in 2010 and to 300 million (5.4%) in 2025. The potential for increase in the number of cases of diabetes is greatest in Asia. It is an emerging public health problem leading in an associated significant proportion. This article reviews the association between diabetes and tuberculosis and suggests appropriate management for these conditions.

Research Priorities for NCD Prevention and Climate Change: An International Delphi Survey

Climate change and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are arguably the greatest global challenges of the 21st Century. However, the confluence between them remains under-examined and there is little evidence of a comprehensive, systematic approach to identifying research priorities to mitigate their joint impact. Consequently, we: (i) convened a workshop of academics (n = 25) from the Worldwide Universities Network to identify priority areas at the interface between NCDs and climate change; (ii) conducted a Delphi survey of international opinion leaders in public health and relevant other disciplines; and (iii) convened an expert panel to review and advise on final priorities. Three research areas (water security; transport; conceptualising NCD harms to support policy formation) were listed among the top 10 priorities by >90% of Delphi respondents, and ranked among the top 12 priorities by >60% of respondents who ranked the order of priority. A fourth area (reducing the carbon footprint of cities) was ranked highest by the same >60% of respondents. Our results are consistent with existing frameworks on health and climate change, and extends them by focusing specifically on NCDs. Researching these priorities could progress understanding of climate change and NCDs, and inform global and national policy decisions for mitigating associated harms.

A Global Perspective on Cardiovascular Disease in Vulnerable Populations

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major contributor to the growing public health epidemic in chronic diseases. Much of the disease and disability burden from CVDs are in people younger than the age of 70 years in low- and middle-income countries, formerly "the developing world." The risk of CVD is heavily influenced by environmental conditions and lifestyle variables. In this article we review the scope of the CVD problem in low- and middle-income countries, including economic factors, risk factors, at-risk groups, and explanatory frameworks that hypothesize the multifactorial drivers. Finally, we discuss current and potential interventions to reduce the burden of CVD in vulnerable populations including research needed to evaluate and implement promising solutions for those most at risk.

Adapting chronic care models for diabetes care delivery in low-and-middle-income countries: A review

A contextual review of models for chronic care was done to develop a context-adapted chronic care model-based service delivery model for chronic conditions including diabetes. The Philippines was used as the setting of a low-to-middle-income country. A context-based narrative review of existing models for chronic care was conducted. A situational analysis was done at the grassroots level, involving the leaders and members of the community, the patients, the local health system and the healthcare providers. A second analysis making use of certain organizational theories was done to explore on improving feasibility and acceptability of organizing care for chronic conditions. The analyses indicated that care for chronic conditions may be introduced, considering the needs of people with diabetes in particular and the community in general as recipients of care, and the issues and factors that may affect the healthcare workers and the health system as providers of this care. The context-adapted chronic care model-based service delivery model was constructed accordingly. Key features are: incorporation of chronic care in the health system's services; assimilation of chronic care delivery with the other responsibilities of the healthcare workers but with redistribution of certain tasks; and ensuring that the recipients of care experience the whole spectrum of basic chronic care that includes education and promotion in the general population, risk identification, screening, counseling including self-care development, and clinical management of the chronic condition and any co-morbidities, regardless of level of control of the condition. This way, low-to-middle income countries can introduce and improve care for chronic conditions without entailing much additional demand on their limited resources.

Tuberculosis control and economic recession: longitudinal study of data from 21 European countries, 1991-2012

Objective

To investigate whether the economic recession affected the control of tuberculosis in the European Union.

Methods

Multivariate regression models were used to quantify the association between gross domestic product, public health expenditure and tuberculosis case detection rates, using data from 21 European Union member states (1991–2012). The estimated changes in case detection attributable to the recession were combined with mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission, to project the potential influence of the recession on tuberculosis epidemiology until 2030.

Findings

Between 1991 and 2007, detection rates for sputum-smear-positive tuberculosis in the European Union were stable at approximately 85%. During the economic recession (2008–2011) detection rates declined by a mean of 5.22% (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.54–7.90) but treatment success rates showed no significant change (P = 0.62). A fall in economic output of 100 United States dollars per capita was associated with a 0.22% (95% CI: 0.05–0.39) mean reduction in the tuberculosis case detection rate. An equivalent fall in spending on public health services was associated with a 2.74% (95% CI: 0.31–5.16) mean reduction in the detection rate. Mathematical models suggest that the recession and consequent austerity policies will lead to increases in tuberculosis prevalence and tuberculosis-attributable mortality that are projected to persist for over a decade.

Conclusion

Across the European Union, reductions in spending on public health services appear to have reduced tuberculosis case detection and to have increased the long-term risk of a resurgence in the disease.

Below the poverty line and non-communicable diseases in Kerala: The Epidemiology of Non-communicable Diseases in Rural Areas (ENDIRA) study

INTRODUCTION

India carries the greatest burden of global non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Poverty is strongly associated with NCDs but there are few prevalence studies which have measured poverty in India, particularly in rural settings.

METHODS

In Kerala, India, a population of 113,462 individuals was identified. The "Epidemiology of Non-communicable Diseases in Rural Areas" (ENDIRA) study was conducted via ASHAs (Accredited Social Health Activists). Standardised questionnaires were used in household interviews of individuals ≥18years during 2012 to gather sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical data for this population. The Government of Kerala definition of "the poverty line" was used. The association between below poverty line (BPL) status, NCDs and risk factors was analysed in multivariable regression models.

RESULTS

84,456 adults were included in the analyses (25.4% below the poverty line). The prevalence of NCDs was relatively common: myocardial infarction (MI) 1.4%, stroke 0.3%, respiratory diseases 5.0%, and cancer 1.1%. BPL status was not associated with age (p=0.96) or gender (p=0.26). Compared with those above the poverty line (APL), the BPL group was less likely to have diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia (p<0.0001), and more likely to smoke (p<0.0001). Compared with APL, BPL was associated with stroke (OR 1.33, 1.04-1.69; p=0.02) and respiratory disease (OR 1.23, 1.15-1.32; p<0.0001) in multivariable analyses, but not MI or cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural Kerala, BPL status was associated with stroke and respiratory diseases, but not with MI and cancer although it was associated with smoking status, compared with above poverty line status.

Benchmarking health system performance across districts in Zambia: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions from 1990 to 2010

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage and reducing health inequalities are primary goals for an increasing number of health systems worldwide. Timely and accurate measurements of levels and trends in key health indicators at local levels are crucial to assess progress and identify drivers of success and areas that may be lagging behind.

METHODS

We generated estimates of 17 key maternal and child health indicators for Zambia's 72 districts from 1990 to 2010 using surveys, censuses, and administrative data. We used a three-step statistical model involving spatial-temporal smoothing and Gaussian process regression. We generated estimates at the national level for each indicator by calculating the population-weighted mean of the district values and calculated composite coverage as the average of 10 priority interventions.

RESULTS

National estimates masked substantial variation across districts in the levels and trends of all indicators. Overall, composite coverage increased from 46% in 1990 to 73% in 2010, and most of this gain was attributable to the scale-up of malaria control interventions, pentavalent immunization, and exclusive breastfeeding. The scale-up of these interventions was relatively equitable across districts. In contrast, progress in routine services, including polio immunization, antenatal care, and skilled birth attendance, stagnated or declined and exhibited large disparities across districts. The absolute difference in composite coverage between the highest-performing and lowest-performing districts declined from 37 to 26 percentage points between 1990 and 2010, although considerable variation in composite coverage across districts persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

Zambia has made marked progress in delivering maternal and child health interventions between 1990 and 2010; nevertheless, substantial variations across districts and interventions remained. Subnational benchmarking is important to identify these disparities, allowing policymakers to prioritize areas of greatest need. Analyses such as this one should be conducted regularly and feed directly into policy decisions in order to increase accountability at the local, regional, and national levels.

The global response to diabetes: action or apathy?

Diabetes and related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for over 60% of the world's annual deaths, untold personal suffering, and an economically crippling burden of lost productivity. Despite the body of evidence and various calls to action, historically, the global response has bordered on apathy. Although diabetes and related NCDs remain disproportionately underfunded, the United Nations now recognises them as a major challenge to human and economic development, resulting in an action-oriented policy, frameworks and monitoring requirements that are being driven by the UN and the World Health Organization. Australia is at the forefront of many of these initiatives and is currently developing a new national diabetes strategy.

The Difficult Task of Evaluating MDG-4

Background. The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) proposed to reduce under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) by two thirds within 25 years. The article discusses changes in U5MR for 35 sub-Saharan African countries, for which DHS surveys are available. Methods. Analysis of DHS data, reconstruction of time series of U5MR, and comparison with other series. Findings. Few countries were able to achieve MDG-4 from 1985 to 2010, and the few who did seem to have achieved the goal apparently either because of abnormally high baseline or a surprisingly low endpoint. If all countries experienced significant mortality decline, only a minority had a steady decline, and many had periods of rising and falling mortality, for a variety of reasons. Interpretation. Discussion focuses on data quality, on methods for estimating levels and trends in under-5 mortality, and on the circumstances explaining rises and falls in mortality. MDG-4 appeared overambitious for Africa, given high mortality levels, political instability, economic crises, and above all emerging diseases, in particular HIV/AIDS. The last 10 years from 2000 to 2010 appeared as the most favorable period since 1960 in African countries, with the exception of countries with widespread HIV/AIDS.

Country progress towards the Millennium Development Goals: adjusting for socioeconomic factors reveals greater progress and new challenges

BACKGROUND

The health Millennium Development Goals (4, 5, 6) impose the same ambitious 2015 targets on every country. Few low-income countries are on track to reach them. Some authors have proposed country-specific targets as a more informative method by which countries can measure their progress against their potential.

METHODS

This paper demonstrates a supplementary approach to assess individual country progress that complements the global goals by adjusting for socioeconomic resources and prior time trends. A minimum performance target adjusts for time and national GDP. Fast-track targets, based on best-performing countries' progress within regional and income groups, adjust for health and non-health sector factors known to affect maternal and child health.

RESULTS

Measuring by the minimum performance target, 74% and 59% of low- and middle-income countries are on track for reducing child mortality and maternal mortality, respectively, compared with 69% and 22% using global MDGs. Only 20% and 7% of low- and middle-income countries are on track for the child and maternal mortality fast-track targets.

CONCLUSIONS

Supplementary targets in maternal and child health, adjusted for each country's resources and policy performance can help countries know if they are truly underperforming relative to their potential. Adjusted targets can also flag countries that have surpassed their potential, and open opportunities for learning from success.

FUNDING

Partnership for Maternal, Newborn & Child Health and the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, as part of the Success Factors Study on reducing maternal and child mortality.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS

To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS

Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV and noncommunicable disease comorbidities in the era of antiretroviral therapy: a vital agenda for research in low- and middle-income country settings

In this special 2014 issue of JAIDS, international investigator teams review a host of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) that are often reported among people living and aging with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. With the longer lifespans that antiretroviral therapy programs have made possible, NCDs are occurring due to a mix of chronic immune activation, medication side effects, coinfections, and the aging process itself. Cancer; cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases; metabolic, body, and bone disorders; gastrointestinal, hepatic, and nutritional aspects; mental, neurological, and substance use disorders; and renal and genitourinary diseases are discussed. Cost-effectiveness, key research methods, and issues of special importance in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean are also addressed. In this introduction, we present some of the challenges and opportunities for addressing HIV and NCD comorbidities in low- and middle-income countries, and preview the research agenda that emerges from the articles that follow.

Effects of health-system strengthening on under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality: 11-year provincial-level time-series analyses in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of the relation between health-system factors and child mortality could help to inform health policy in low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to quantify modifiable health-system factors and their relation with provincial-level heterogeneity in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality over time in Mozambique.

METHODS

Using Demographic and Health Survey (2003 and 2011) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2008) data, we generated provincial-level time-series of child mortality in under-5 (ages 0-4 years), infant (younger than 1 year), and neonatal (younger than 1 month) age groups for 2000-10. We built negative binomial mixed models to examine health-system factors associated with changes in child mortality.

FINDINGS

Under-5 mortality rate was heterogeneous across provinces, with yearly decreases ranging from 11·1% (Nampula) to 1·9% (Maputo Province). Heterogeneity was greater for neonatal mortality rate, with only seven of 11 provinces showing significant yearly decreases, ranging from 13·6% (Nampula) to 4·2% (Zambezia). Health workforce density (adjusted rate ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·90-0·98) and maternal and child health nurse density (0·96, 0·92-0·99) were both associated with reduced under-5 mortality rate, as were institutional birth coverage (0·94, 0·90-0·98) and government financing per head (0·80, 0·65-0·98). Higher population per health facility was associated with increased under-5 mortality rate (1·14, 1·02-1·28). Neonatal mortality rate was most strongly associated with institutional birth attendance, maternal and child nurse density, and overall health workforce density. Infant mortality rate was most strongly associated with institutional birth attendance and population per health facility.

INTERPRETATION

The large decreases in child mortality seen in Mozambique between 2000 and 2010 could have been partly caused by improvements in the public-sector health workforce, institutional birth coverage, and government health financing. Increased attention should be paid to service availability, because population per health facility is increasing across Mozambique and is associated with increased under-5 mortality. Investments in health information systems and new methods to track potentially increasing subnational health disparities are urgently needed.

FUNDING

Doris Duke Charitable Foundation and Mozambican National Institute of Health.

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

BACKGROUND

Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa.

RESULTS

Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the 1950s through the 1990s in a context of preponderant communicable diseases in all African countries; 5) the salient role of adult mortality, mostly ascribed to HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities, since the 1990s in reversing trends in mortality decline, its interruption of life expectancy improvements, and its reversal of gender differences in life expectancies disadvantaging women in several countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS; 6) the huge impact of wars in reversing the trends in under-five mortality decline in sub-Saharan countries in the 1990s and beyond. These assessments of these transition frameworks and these phenomena were not well documented to date for all five regions and 57 countries of Africa.

CONCLUSION

Prevailing frameworks of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions as descriptive and predictive models are incomplete or irrelevant for charting the population and health experiences and prospects of national populations in the African context.

Feasibility, accuracy, and clinical effect of point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF testing for tuberculosis in primary-care settings in Africa: a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Xpert MTB/RIF test for tuberculosis is being rolled out in many countries, but evidence is lacking regarding its implementation outside laboratories, ability to inform same-day treatment decisions at the point of care, and clinical effect on tuberculosis-related morbidity. We aimed to assess the feasibility, accuracy, and clinical effect of point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF testing at primary-care health-care facilities in southern Africa.

METHODS

In this pragmatic, randomised, parallel-group, multicentre trial, we recruited adults with symptoms suggestive of active tuberculosis from five primary-care health-care facilities in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Tanzania. Eligible patients were randomly assigned using pregenerated tables to nurse-performed Xpert MTB/RIF at the clinic or sputum smear microscopy. Participants with a negative test result were empirically managed according to local WHO-compliant guidelines. Our primary outcome was tuberculosis-related morbidity (measured with the TBscore and Karnofsky performance score [KPS]) in culture-positive patients who had begun anti-tuberculosis treatment, measured at 2 months and 6 months after randomisation, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT01554384.

FINDINGS

Between April 12, 2011, and March 30, 2012, we randomly assigned 758 patients to smear microscopy (182 culture positive) and 744 to Xpert MTB/RIF (185 culture positive). Median TBscore in culture-positive patients did not differ between groups at 2 months (2 [IQR 0-3] in the smear microscopy group vs 2 [0·25-3] in the MTB/RIF group; p=0·85) or 6 months (1 [0-3] vs 1 [0-3]; p=0·35), nor did median KPS at 2 months (80 [70-90] vs 90 [80-90]; p=0·23) or 6 months (100 [90-100] vs 100 [90-100]; p=0·85). Point-of-care MTB/RIF had higher sensitivity than microscopy (154 [83%] of 185 vs 91 [50%] of 182; p=0·0001) but similar specificity (517 [95%] 544 vs 540 [96%] of 560; p=0·25), and had similar sensitivity to laboratory-based MTB/RIF (292 [83%] of 351; p=0·99) but higher specificity (952 [92%] of 1037; p=0·0173). 34 (5%) of 744 tests with point-of-care MTB/RIF and 82 (6%) of 1411 with laboratory-based MTB/RIF failed (p=0·22). Compared with the microscopy group, more patients in the MTB/RIF group had a same-day diagnosis (178 [24%] of 744 vs 99 [13%] of 758; p<0·0001) and same-day treatment initiation (168 [23%] of 744 vs 115 [15%] of 758; p=0·0002). Although, by end of the study, more culture-positive patients in the MTB/RIF group were on treatment due to reduced dropout (15 [8%] of 185 in the MTB/RIF group did not receive treatment vs 28 [15%] of 182 in the microscopy group; p=0·0302), the proportions of all patients on treatment in each group by day 56 were similar (320 [43%] of 744 in the MTB/RIF group vs 317 [42%] of 758 in the microscopy group; p=0·6408).

INTERPRETATION

Xpert MTB/RIF can be accurately administered by a nurse in primary-care clinics, resulting in more patients starting same-day treatment, more culture-positive patients starting therapy, and a shorter time to treatment. However, the benefits did not translate into lower tuberculosis-related morbidity, partly because of high levels of empirical-evidence-based treatment in smear-negative patients.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, National Research Foundation, and Claude Leon Foundation.

Implementation challenges of maternal health care in Ghana: the case of health care providers in the Tamale Metropolis

Background

Achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of improving maternal health has become a focus in recent times for the majority of countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Ghana’s maternal mortality is still high indicating that there are challenges in the provision of quality maternal health care at the facility level. This study examined the implementation challenges of maternal health care services in the Tamale Metropolis of Ghana.

Methods

Purposive sampling was used to select study participants and qualitative strategies, including in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and review of documents employed for data collection. The study participants included midwives (24) and health managers (4) at the facility level.

Results

The study revealed inadequate in-service training, limited knowledge of health policies by midwives, increased workload, risks of infection, low motivation, inadequate labour wards, problems with transportation, and difficulties in following the procurement act, among others as some of the challenges confronting the successful implementation of the MDGs targeting maternal and child health in the Tamale Metropolis.

Conclusions

Implementation of maternal health interventions should take into consideration the environment or the context under which the interventions are implemented by health care providers to ensure they are successful. The study recommends involving midwives in the health policy development process to secure their support and commitment towards successful implementation of maternal health interventions.

Evaluating regional workshops on strengthening the capacity of healthcare professional associations to achieve Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5

OBJECTIVE

In 2007-2008, the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health (PMNCH), Geneva, organized capacity-building workshops in Malawi, Burkina Faso, and Bangladesh. Their aim was to strengthen the role of healthcare professional associations (HCPAs) in national reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) planning and programs. The present cross-sectional study evaluated the outcomes of these regional workshops.

METHODS

In 2010, a structured survey, telephone interviews of workshop participants, and a document review were used to analyze the impact of these workshops.

RESULTS

Overall, HCPAs in only 2 of the 17 participating countries (11.8%) were able to increase their impact on RMNCH planning. Although all countries developed action plans, 15 (88.2%) were unable to fully implement them despite increased interactions among HCPAs and with the Ministry of Health (MOH). Nine countries (52.9%) implemented their action plans partly. Engagement of the MOH emerged as a strong indicator of HCPA contribution toward RMNCH planning.

CONCLUSION

Strong and sustained follow-up by PMNCH, a clear sense of ownership by HCPAs, designated staff, and financial resources emerged as important determinants for the implementation of action plans. These workshops were generally successful in both encouraging HCPA collaboration and marching toward Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5.

Time trends and inequalities of under-five mortality in Nepal: a secondary data analysis of four demographic and health surveys between 1996 and 2011

BACKGROUND

Inequalities in progress towards achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG-4) reflect unequal access to child health services.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the time trends, socio-economic and regional inequalities of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Nepal.

METHODS

We analyzed the data from complete birth histories of four Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) done in the years 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. For each livebirth, we computed survival period from birth until either fifth birthday or the survey date. Using direct methods i.e. by constructing life tables, we calculated yearly U5MRs from 1991 to 2010. Projections were made for the years 2011 to 2015. For each NDHS, U5MRs were calculated according to child's sex, mother's education, household wealth index, rural/urban residence, development regions and ecological zones. Inequalities were calculated as rate difference, rate ratio, population attributable risk and hazard ratio.

RESULTS

Yearly U5MR (per 1000 live births) had decreased from 157.3 (95% CIs 178.0-138.9) in 1991 to 43.2 (95% CIs 59.1-31.5) in 2010 i.e. 114.1 reduction in absolute risk. Projected U5MR for the year 2015 was 54.33. U5MRs had decreased in absolute terms in all sub groups but relative inequalities had reduced for gender and rural/urban residence only. Wide inequalities existed by wealth and education and increased between 1996 and 2011. For lowest wealth quintile (as compared to highest quintile) hazard ratio (HR) increased from 1.37 (95% CIs 1.27, 1.49) to 2.54 ( 95% CIs 2.25, 2.86) and for mothers having no education (as compared to higher education) HR increased from 2.55 (95% CIs 1.95, 3.33) to 3.75 (95% CIs 3.17, 4.44). Changes in regional inequities were marginal and irregular.

CONCLUSIONS

Nepal is most likely to achieve MDG-4 but eductional and wealth inequalities may widen further. National health policies should address to reduce inequalities in U5MR through 'inclusive policies'.