The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States

Heterogeneity of Zika virus exposure and outcome ascertainment across cohorts of pregnant women, their infants and their children: a metadata survey

OBJECTIVES

To support the Zika virus (ZIKV) Individual Participant Data (IPD) Consortium's efforts to harmonise and analyse IPD from ZIKV-related prospective cohort studies and surveillance-based studies of pregnant women and their infants and children; we developed and disseminated a metadata survey among ZIKV-IPD Meta-Analysis (MA) study participants to identify and provide a comprehensive overview of study-level heterogeneity in exposure, outcome and covariate ascertainment and definitions.

SETTING

Cohort and surveillance studies that measured ZIKV infection during pregnancy or at birth and measured fetal, infant, or child outcomes were identified through a systematic search and consultations with ZIKV researchers and Ministries of Health from 20 countries or territories.

PARTICIPANTS

Fifty-four cohort or active surveillance studies shared deidentified data for the IPD-MA and completed the metadata survey, representing 33 061 women (11 020 with ZIKV) and 18 281 children.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Study-level heterogeneity in exposure, outcome and covariate ascertainment and definitions.

RESULTS

Median study sample size was 268 (IQR=100, 698). Inclusion criteria, follow-up procedures and exposure and outcome ascertainment were highly heterogenous, differing meaningfully across regions and multisite studies. Enrolment duration and follow-up for children after birth varied before and after the declaration of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) and according to the type of funding received.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights the logistic and statistical challenges that must be addressed to account for the multiple sources of within-study and between-study heterogeneity when conducting IPD-MAs of data collected in the research response to emergent pathogens like ZIKV.

Seroprevalence of Zika Virus among Forest Fringe Communities in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah: General Population-Based Study

Zika virus (ZIKV) has had a history in Malaysia since its first isolation in 1966. However, it is believed that the immunity status among forest fringe communities has been underreported. We conducted cross-sectional surveillance of forest fringe communities from 10 Orang Asli villages and their peripheral communities in Perak, Pahang, and Sabah in Malaysia. A total of 706 samples were collected from 2019 to 2020 and screened for ZIKV exposure using an anti-ZIKV IgG ELISA kit. A neutralization assay against ZIKV was used to confirm the reactive samples. The seroprevalence results reported from the study of this population in Malaysia were 21.0% (n = 148, 95% CI, 0.183-0.273) after confirmation with a foci reduction neutralization test. The presence of neutralizing antibodies provides evidence that the studied forest fringe communities in Malaysia have been exposed to ZIKV. Multivariate analysis showed that those older than 44 years and those with an education below the university level had been exposed significantly to ZIKV. In addition, higher seropositivity rates to ZIKV were also reported among secondary school students from Bentong (Pahang) and residents from Segaliud (Sabah). No associations were identified between Zika seropositivity and gender, household size, house radius to the jungle, and income level. The presence of neutralizing antibodies against ZIKV among the study population might indicate that the causative pathogen had already circulated widely in forest fringe regions. Intervention for vector control, protection from mosquito bites, and awareness improvement should be encouraged in this population.

Our issue or their issue? Media coverage and framing of the Zika virus epidemic

How does the news media respond to health emergencies abroad? Between 2015 and 2018, Zika virus spread rapidly throughout Latin America before arriving in the continental United States. Despite the risks to adults and newborns, it is unclear how media coverage developed and framed the threat for its audience. In this paper, we argue that while the frequency of coverage was responsive to infections, its content failed to promote proactive health behaviour. To assess these claims, we analyse each of 442 articles dealing with Zika virus published by The New York Times from 2015-18. We find that the amount of coverage reflected infections but did not change once the disease emerged in the US. Furthermore, content analysis using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count software reveals that coverage emphasised differences between communities (those affected and those at home) and that present and past time orientations dominated coverage as opposed to future time orientations.

Could species-focused suppression of Aedes aegypti, the yellow fever mosquito, and Aedes albopictus, the tiger mosquito, affect interacting predators? An evidence synthesis from the literature

The risks of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus nuisance and vector-borne diseases are rising and the adverse effects of broad-spectrum insecticide application have promoted species-specific techniques, such as sterile insect technique (SIT) and other genetic strategies, as contenders in their control operations. When specific vector suppression is proposed, potential effects on predators and wider ecosystem are some of the first stakeholder questions. These are not the only Aedes vectors of human diseases, but are those for which SIT and genetic strategies are of most interest. They vary ecologically and in habitat origin, but both have behaviorally human-adapted forms with expanding ranges. The aquatic life stages are where predation is strongest due to greater resource predictability and limited escape opportunity. These vectors' anthropic forms usually use ephemeral water bodies and man-made containers as larval habitats; predators that occur in these are mobile, opportunistic and generalist. No literature indicates that any predator depends on larvae of either species. As adults, foraging theory predicts these mosquitoes are of low profitability to predators. Energy expended hunting and consuming will mostly outweigh their energetic benefit. Moreover, as adult biomass is mobile and largely disaggregated, any predator is likely to be a generalist and opportunist. This work, which summarizes much of the literature currently available on the predators of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, indicates it is highly unlikely that any predator species depends on them. Species-specific vector control to reduce nuisance and disease is thus likely to be of negligible or limited impact on nontarget predators. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Needs Assessment of Southeastern United States Vector Control Agencies: Capacity Improvement Is Greatly Needed to Prevent the Next Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak

A national 2017 vector control capacity survey was conducted to assess the United States’ (U.S.’s) ability to prevent emerging vector-borne disease. Since that survey, the southeastern U.S. has experienced continued autochthonous exotic vector-borne disease transmission and establishment of invasive vector species. To understand the current gaps in control programs and establish a baseline to evaluate future vector control efforts for this vulnerable region, a focused needs assessment survey was conducted in early 2020. The southeastern U.S. region was targeted, as this region has a high probability of novel vector-borne disease introduction. Paper copies delivered in handwritten envelopes and electronic copies of the survey were delivered to 386 unique contacts, and 150 returned surveys were received, corresponding to a 39% response rate. Overall, the survey found vector control programs serving areas with over 100,000 residents and those affiliated with public health departments had more core capabilities compared to smaller programs and those not affiliated with public health departments. Furthermore, the majority of vector control programs in this region do not routinely monitor for pesticide resistance. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that the majority of the southeastern U.S. is vulnerable to vector-borne disease outbreaks. Results from this survey raise attention to the critical need of providing increased resources to bring all vector control programs to a competent level, ensuring that public health is protected from the threat of vector-borne disease.

Economic burden of public health care and hospitalisation associated with COVID-19 in China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the socio-economic burden imposed on the Chinese healthcare system during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was used to investigate how COVID-19 impacted health and medical costs in China. Data were derived from a subdivision of the Centers for Disease control and Prevention of China.

METHODS

We prospectively collected information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the designated hospitals to determine the cost of public health care and hospitalisation due to COVID-19. We estimated the resource use and direct medical costs associated with public health.

RESULTS

The average costs, per case, for specimen collection and nucleic acid testing (NAT [specifically, polymerase chain reaction {PCR}]) in low-risk populations were $29.49 and $53.44, respectively; however, the average cost of NAT in high-risk populations was $297.94 per capita. The average costs per 1000 population for epidemiological surveys, disinfectant, health education and centralised isolation were $49.54, $247.01, $90.22 and $543.72, respectively. A single hospitalisation for COVID-19 in China cost a median of $2158.06 ($1961.13-$2325.65) in direct medical costs incurred only during hospitalisation, whereas the total costs associated with hospitalisation of patients with COVID-19 were estimated to have reached nearly $373.20 million in China as of 20, May, 2020. The cost of public health care associated with COVID-19 as of 20, May, 2020 ($6.83 billion) was 18.31 times that of hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the magnitude of resources needed to treat patients with COVID-19 and control the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health measures implemented by the Chinese government have been valuable in reducing the infection rate and may be cost-effective ways to control emerging infectious diseases.

Game-Theoretical Model of the Voluntary Use of Insect Repellents to Prevent Zika Fever

Zika fever is an emerging mosquito-borne disease. While it often causes no or only mild symptoms that are similar to dengue fever, Zika virus can spread from a pregnant woman to her baby and cause severe birth defects. There is no specific treatment or vaccine, but the disease can be mitigated by using several control strategies, generally focusing on the reduction in mosquitoes or mosquito bites. In this paper, we model Zika virus transmission and incorporate a game-theoretical approach to study a repeated population game of DEET usage to prevent insect bites. We show that the optimal use effectively leads to disease elimination. This result is robust and not significantly dependent on the cost of the insect repellents.

Emerging Mosquito-Borne Viruses Linked to Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus: Global Status and Preventive Strategies

Emerging mosquito-borne viruses continue to cause serious health problems and economic burden among billions of people living in and near the tropical belt of the world. The highly invasive mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have successively invaded and expanded their presence as key vectors of Chikungunya virus, dengue virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus, and that has consecutively led to frequent outbreaks of the corresponding viral diseases. Of note, these two mosquito species have gradually adapted to the changing weather and environmental conditions leading to a shift in the epidemiology of the viral diseases, and facilitated their establishment in new ecozones inhabited by immunologically naive human populations. Many abilities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as vectors of significant arbovirus pathogens, may affect the infection and transmission rates after a bloodmeal, and may influence the vector competence for either virus. We highlight that many collaborating risk factors, for example, the global transportation systems may result in sporadic and more local outbreaks caused by mosquito-borne viruses related to Ae. aegypti and/or Ae. albopictus. Those local outbreaks could in synergy grow and produce larger epidemics with pandemic characters. There is an urgent need for improved surveillance of vector populations, human cases, and reliable prediction models. In summary, we recommend new and innovative strategies for the prevention of these types of infections.

Estimating the cost of congenital Zika syndrome to families and healthcare providers in Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco, Brazil: results of a case-control study

Background: Children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) have a wide range of additional healthcare needs. This study aimed to estimate the direct costs of CZS from the health provider and family perspectives, and the indirect costs for families, in two Brazilian states: Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco. Methods: A case-control study was undertaken between May 2017-January 2018 recruiting 174 cases with severe CZS, 41 with mild/moderate CZS and 269 children with no CZS, across the two sites, from existing studies. The primary caregiver was interviewed using a structured questionnaire to collect information on healthcare use and costs incurred during the previous 12 months. In Rio de Janeiro, health care utilization data was also extracted from electronic medical records. We estimated direct and indirect costs incurred as a result of CZS from the perspective of the health system and families. Results: Children with CZS accessed more healthcare facilities and reported longer travel and waiting times than children unaffected by CZS. Total costs from the health provider perspective of outpatient visits, were highest for children with severe CZS (U$1,411) followed by children with mild/moderate CZS (U$264) and children without CZS (U$107). This pattern was apparent for direct costs incurred by families, while median indirect costs were low. Families of children with CZS reported high levels of catastrophic expenditures; Expenses incurred by families to meet their child’s needs as a proportion of household income was 30% (IQR=14%-67%, p<0.01) for children with severe CZS, 11% (IQR=4%-33%, p<0.01) for mild/moderate CZS, and 1% (IQR=0%-8%) for controls. Costs incurred by families were generally higher in Rio de Janeiro than Pernambuco. Conclusions: Families of children affected by CZS in Brazil may need additional public health resources and social benefits to protect them from incurring catastrophic expenses while meeting the needs of their children.

World one-hundred days after COVID-19 outbreak: Incidence, case fatality rate, and trend

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of viral diseases is on the rise and has caused many problems for public health. COVID-19 is a new viral outbreak in the world. This study aimed to investigate the trends of incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the world by April 30, 2020.

METHODS

This was a descriptive-analytical study. We investigated the number of cases and deaths in 35 selected countries and regions of the WHO that had at least 10,000 cases by the time of the study. In addition, the incidence and CFR of COVID-19 were investigated. Finally, time trends of the number of cases, deaths, and CFR were investigated using ordinary least squares regression models.

RESULTS

The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 3,090,184. The European region had the highest number of COVID-19 patients (1,434,649 [46.43%]). Ukraine with 10,406 and the USA with 1,003,974 cases have reported the lowest and highest confirmed cases, respectively. In addition, the European region and the African region with 157.13 and 2.50 patients per 100,000 population had the highest and the lowest incidence rate, respectively. India (2.44) and Spain (455.69) had the lowest and the highest incidence rate per 100,000 population, respectively. In the world, 217,759 deaths have happened, of which 135,961 (62.44%) were reported in the European region. Furthermore, the USA had the highest number of deaths (52,428) due to COVID-19. CFR was 7.05% in the world, which ranged from 3.74% in the African region and 9.48% in the European region. The number of patients and deaths due to COVID-19 had increasing trends in all countries, and the trend of CFR just for Iran and Ukraine was negative.

CONCLUSION

The countries had different trends in the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. However, regarding the increasing trend of the disease in the world, it will be more important to rely on public prevention strategies. It is necessary to apply and continue public health policies at national and global levels till the control of the disease.

Stability and detection of nucleic acid from viruses and hosts in controlled mosquito blood feeds

Monitoring the presence and spread of pathogens in the environment is of critical importance. Rapid detection of infectious disease outbreaks and prediction of their spread can facilitate early responses of health agencies and reduce the severity of outbreaks. Current sampling methods are sorely limited by available personnel and throughput. For instance, xenosurveillance utilizes captured arthropod vectors, such as mosquitoes, as sampling tools to access blood from a wide variety of vertebrate hosts. Next generation sequencing (NGS) of nucleic acid from individual blooded mosquitoes can be used to identify mosquito and host species, and microorganisms including pathogens circulating within either host. However, there are practical challenges to collecting and processing mosquitoes for xenosurveillance, such as the rapid metabolization or decay of microorganisms within the mosquito midgut. This particularly affects pathogens that do not replicate in mosquitoes, preventing their detection by NGS or other methods. Accordingly, we performed a series of experiments to establish the windows of detection for DNA or RNA from human blood and/or viruses present in mosquito blood meals. Our results will contribute to the development of xenosurveillance techniques with respect to optimal timing of sample collection and NGS processing and will also aid trap design by demonstrating the stabilizing effect of temperature control on viral genome recovery from blood-fed mosquitoes.

The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.

Context-Dependent Accuracy of the BG-Counter Remote Mosquito Surveillance Device in North Carolina

There is a clear need for improved vector surveillance approaches that are affordable, labor efficient, and safer than traditional methods. The BG-Counter (Biogents USA, Moorefield, WV) is a device for remotely monitoring mosquito activity in combination with the BG-Sentinel (Biogents USA), a widely used trap for the collection of host-seeking mosquitoes. The BG-Counter uses a wireless connection to provide real-time counts of mosquitoes captured by the BG-Sentinel, allowing users to remotely monitor mosquito populations. This study tested the effectiveness of the BG-Counter in 5 North Carolina counties. A total of 96 trap-days resulted in the collection of >45,000 individual mosquitoes representing 35 species. Aedes albopictus was the most common species collected in all counties, except for New Hanover County where Culex nigripalpus was the most common. The mean daily accuracy ranged from 80.1% (New Hanover County) to 9.4% (Jackson County). There was a significant linear relationship between the actual number of mosquitoes collected and the device counts at all sites except Jackson County, the site with the lowest relative mosquito abundance compared with nontarget organisms. A linear regression of daily BG-Counter accuracy and the daily proportion of mosquitoes to the total number of arthropods collected revealed a significant positive linear relationship, supporting the premise that the BG-Counter is less effective when the relative abundance of mosquitoes is low. Mosquito surveillance programs using the BG-Counter should recognize its context-dependent accuracy and routinely evaluate the accuracy of the device based on local conditions.

Genomic Epidemiology as a Public Health Tool to Combat Mosquito-Borne Virus Outbreaks

Next-generation sequencing technologies, exponential increases in the availability of virus genomic data, and ongoing advances in phylogenomic methods have made genomic epidemiology an increasingly powerful tool for public health response to a range of mosquito-borne virus outbreaks. In this review, we offer a brief primer on the scope and methods of phylogenomic analyses that can answer key epidemiological questions during mosquito-borne virus public health emergencies. We then focus on case examples of outbreaks, including those caused by dengue, Zika, yellow fever, West Nile, and chikungunya viruses, to demonstrate the utility of genomic epidemiology to support the prevention and control of mosquito-borne virus threats. We extend these case studies with operational perspectives on how to best incorporate genomic epidemiology into structured surveillance and response programs for mosquito-borne virus control. Many tools for genomic epidemiology already exist, but so do technical and nontechnical challenges to advancing their use. Frameworks to support the rapid sharing of multidimensional data and increased cross-sector partnerships, networks, and collaborations can support advancement on all scales, from research and development to implementation by public health agencies.

A review of the economic evidence of Aedes-borne arboviruses and Aedes-borne arboviral disease prevention and control strategies

Introduction: Aedes-borne arboviruses contributes substantially to the disease and cost burden.Areas covered: We performed a systematic review of the economic evidence surrounding aedes-borne arboviruses and strategies to prevent and control these diseases to inform disease control policy decisions and research directions. We searched four databases covering an 18-year period (2000-2018) to identify arboviral disease-related cost of illness studies, cost studies of vector control and prevention strategies, cost-effectiveness analyses and cost-benefit analyses. We identified 74 published studies that revealed substantial global total costs in yellow fever virus and dengue virus ranging from 2.1 to 57.3 billion USD. Cost studies of vector control and surveillance programs are limited, but a few studies found that costs of vector control programs ranged from 5.62 to 73.5 million USD. Cost-effectiveness evidence was limited across Aedes-borne diseases, but generally found targeted dengue vaccination programs cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction and implementation of surveillance and vector control programs.Expert opinion: Evidence of the economic burden of aedes-borne arboviruses and the economic impact of strategies for arboviral disease prevention and control is critical to inform policy decisions and to secure continued financial support for these preventive and control measures.

AMP-Activated Protein Kinase Restricts Zika Virus Replication in Endothelial Cells by Potentiating Innate Antiviral Responses and Inhibiting Glycolysis

Viruses are known to perturb host cellular metabolism to enable their replication and spread. However, little is known about the interactions between Zika virus (ZIKV) infection and host metabolism. Using primary human retinal vascular endothelial cells and an established human endothelial cell line, we investigated the role of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), a master regulator of energy metabolism, in response to ZIKV challenge. ZIKV infection caused a time-dependent reduction in the active phosphorylated state of AMPK and of its downstream target acetyl-CoA carboxylase. Pharmacological activation of AMPK using 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide (AICAR), metformin, and a specific AMPKα activator (GSK621) attenuated ZIKV replication. This activity was reversed by an AMPK inhibitor (compound C). Lentivirus-mediated knockdown of AMPK and the use of AMPKα^-/- mouse embryonic fibroblasts provided further evidence that AMPK has an antiviral effect on ZIKV replication. Consistent with its antiviral effect, AMPK activation potentiated the expression of genes with antiviral properties (e.g., IFNs, OAS2, ISG15, and MX1) and inhibited inflammatory mediators (e.g., TNF-α and CCL5). Bioenergetic analysis showed that ZIKV infection evokes a glycolytic response, as evidenced by elevated extracellular acidification rate and increased expression of key glycolytic genes (GLUT1, HK2, TPI, and MCT4); activation of AMPK by AICAR treatment reduced this response. Consistent with this, 2-deoxyglucose, an inhibitor of glycolysis, augmented AMPK activity and attenuated ZIKV replication. Thus, our study demonstrates that the anti-ZIKV effect of AMPK signaling in endothelial cells is mediated by reduction of viral-induced glycolysis and enhanced innate antiviral responses.

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space–time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.

The Economic and Social Burden of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

Background

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa was more devastating than all previous EVD outbreaks combined; however, many estimates of its economic burden did not capture its significant social costs. This study aimed to review all currently available estimates, identify social components missed by these estimates, and generate a comprehensive cost of the 2014 EVD outbreak.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of the grey (reports produced by nonprofit or nongovernmental organizations, government, or industry) and published literature to identify current estimates of the burden of the outbreak. Based on the findings of this review, we identified 6 key areas absent or underestimated from previous estimates and calculated the underestimated social costs using estimates from the literature and extrapolation.

Results

Current estimates of the economic burden of the outbreak range from $2.8 to $32.6 billion in lost gross domestic product. We estimated the comprehensive economic and social burden from the 2014 EVD outbreak to be $53.19 billion (2014 USD). The most significant component, $18.8 billion, was deaths from non-Ebola causes.

Conclusions

A more complete understanding of the burden of the 2014 EVD outbreak underscores the value of interventions that can mitigate or reduce the severity of future outbreaks.

Risk society online: Zika virus, social media and distrust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

While social construction of illness research has examined the redefinition of medically defined illness as non-illness by laypersons, nothing has considered this process alongside emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Using Gidden's notion of modern risk society and distrust in expert authority, this paper examines how social media posts construct Zika virus as nonhazardous while displaying a distrust in research and prevention. Using qualitative content analysis, we examine 801 posts on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Facebook page to highlight the interplay between risk, the social construction of Zika and trust in experts. Three themes are discussed, including Zika: (i) as legitimate public health threat; (ii) as product of CDC corruption and (iii) used to question medical expertise. We find the latter two themes supportive of Gidden's focus on risk and distrust in expert authority and discuss the danger of constructing EIDs as products of corrupt expert authority on public health social media platforms.

What Is the Value of Different Zika Vaccination Strategies to Prevent and Mitigate Zika Outbreaks?

BACKGROUND

While the 2015-2016 Zika epidemics prompted accelerated vaccine development, decision makers need to know the potential economic value of vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We developed models of Honduras, Brazil, and Puerto Rico, simulated targeting different populations for Zika vaccination (women of childbearing age, school-aged children, young adults, and everyone) and then introduced various Zika outbreaks. Sensitivity analyses varied vaccine characteristics.

RESULTS

With a 2% attack rate ($5 vaccination), compared to no vaccination, vaccinating women of childbearing age cost $314-$1664 per case averted ($790-$4221/disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] averted) in Honduras, and saved $847-$1644/case averted in Brazil, and $3648-$4177/case averted in Puerto Rico, varying with vaccination coverage and efficacy (societal perspective). Vaccinating school-aged children cost $718-$1849/case averted (≤$5002/DALY averted) in Honduras, saved $819-$1609/case averted in Brazil, and saved $3823-$4360/case averted in Puerto Rico. Vaccinating young adults cost $310-$1666/case averted ($731-$4017/DALY averted) in Honduras, saved $953-$1703/case averted in Brazil, and saved $3857-$4372/case averted in Puerto Rico. Vaccinating everyone averted more cases but cost more, decreasing cost savings per case averted. Vaccination resulted in more cost savings and better outcomes at higher attack rates.

CONCLUSIONS

When considering transmission, while vaccinating everyone naturally averted the most cases, specifically targeting women of childbearing age or young adults was the most cost-effective.

An evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines for Zika virus disease

BACKGROUND

In the face of an unclear causal association between Zika virus in utero exposure and congenital abnormalities and urgent demand for guidance, the World Health Organization (WHO) had to produce timely and trustworthy guidelines during the 2016 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional evaluation of WHO emergency guidelines produced during the Zika virus disease PHEIC from 1 February to 18 November 2016. We assessed adherence to WHO publication requirements and the reporting of guideline development processes associated with trustworthiness. In the absence of quality appraisal tools for guidelines developed under compressed timeframes, we applied the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) tool.

RESULTS

We included 21 guidelines (13 de novo and 8 updates). Six guidelines used a formal evidence review process. Most guidelines involved external experts in the development process and collected declarations of interest. Peer review was reported in six documents. Most emergency guidelines included updating plans. The highest scoring AGREE II domain was clarity of presentation (median score 78%); the lowest scoring domain was applicability (median score 18%).

CONCLUSION

WHO developed moderate- to high-quality emergency guidelines in the challenging context of a PHEIC. We found improvement opportunities for WHO guideline development teams in the use of evidence to formulate recommendations, the collection of declarations of interest, reporting of conflicts of interest, and the use of existing WHO organizational quality assurance processes.

Science Policy Training for a New Physician Leader: Description and Framework of a Novel Climate and Health Science Policy Fellowship

The accelerating health impacts of climate change are undermining global health, and the roles of the health sector in addressing the many challenges of climate change are being articulated by governments, multilateral institutions, and professional societies. Given the paucity of physician engagement on this issue to date, there now exists a clear need for health professionals to meet this new challenge with the development and cultivation of new knowledge and skill sets in public health, environmental science, policy, and communication. We describe a novel GME fellowship in climate and health science policy, designed to train a new generation of clinicians to provide the necessary perspective and skills for effective leadership in this field. This fellowship identifies available university resources and leverages external collaborations (government, medical consortiums, affiliate institutions in public health, and environmental science), which we describe as being replicatable to similar training programs of any number of medical specialties and likewise bring meaningful opportunities to their respective training programs and academic departments. The creation of this novel fellowship in climate and health policy provides a roadmap and potential path for similar programs to join us in addressing the defining health issue of this generation and many to follow.

Point of care testing for infectious diseases

Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can be transmitted between individuals and populations thus threatening the general public health and potentially the economy. Efficient diagnostic tools are needed to provide accurate and timely guidance for case identification, transmission disruption and appropriate treatment administration. Point of care (POC) tests provide actionable results near the patient and thereby serve as a personal "radar". In this review, we review clinical needs for POC testing for several major pathogens, including malaria parasites, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human papillomavirus (HPV), dengue, Ebola and Zika viruses and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB). We compare different molecular approaches, including pathogen nucleic acid and protein, circulating microRNA and antibodies, used in the POC tests. Finally, we review recent advances in novel POC technologies focusing on microfluidic and plasmonic-based approaches.

Association between Knowledge of Zika Transmission and Preventative Measures among Latinas of Childbearing Age in Farm-Working Communities in South Florida

Zika infection, an otherwise usually mild disease, is of serious public health concern due to the potential teratogenic effects of the virus. The incidence of Zika infection is difficult to document since it is mostly asymptomatic and detection of those carrying Zika is usually not possible. Currently, there is no vaccine for Zika; therefore, use of personal preventative measures is the only method of avoiding transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between knowledge of Zika transmission and the use of preventive measures among Latinas of childbearing age who lived in or near farm-working communities in South Florida. A secondary data analysis was performed on a cross-sectional study, sampling 100 Latina women aged 18–50 years. Sixty-nine percent demonstrated a high degree of knowledge of Zika transmission, and 68% were categorized as taking good preventative measures. Women with high knowledge were 5.86 times more likely to take good preventative measures than those with no knowledge (p-value = 0.05). Knowledge was associated with more preventative measures. Therefore, it is essential to further investigate this relationship in order to develop effective public health interventions for this population.

Using Human Movement Data to Identify Potential Areas of Zika Transmission: Case Study of the Largest Zika Cluster in Singapore

Singapore experienced its first Zika virus (ZIKV) cluster in August 2016. To understand the implication of human movement on disease spread, a retrospective study was conducted using aggregated and anonymized mobile phone data to examine movement from the cluster to identify areas of possible transmission. An origin–destination model was developed based on the movement of three groups of individuals: (i) construction workers, (ii) residents and (iii) visitors out of the cluster locality to other parts of the island. The odds ratio of ZIKV cases in a hexagon visited by an individual from the cluster, independent of the group of individuals, is 3.20 (95% CI: 2.65–3.87, p-value < 0.05), reflecting a higher count of ZIKV cases when there is a movement into a hexagon from the cluster locality. A comparison of independent ROC curves tested the statistical significance of the difference between the areas under the curves of the three groups of individuals. Visitors (difference in AUC = 0.119) and residents (difference in AUC = 0.124) have a significantly larger difference in area under the curve compared to the construction workers (p-value < 0.05). This study supports the proof of concept of using mobile phone data to approximate population movement, thus identifying areas at risk of disease transmission.

Assessment of the effectiveness of BG-Sentinel traps baited with CO2 and BG-Lure for the surveillance of vector mosquitoes in Miami-Dade County, Florida

Vector-borne diseases are an increasing issue to public health, endangering billions of people worldwide. Controlling vector mosquitoes is widely accepted as the most effective way to prevent vector-borne disease outbreaks. Mosquito surveillance is critical for the development of control strategies under the integrated vector management framework. We hypothesize that the effectiveness and reliability of using BG-Sentinel traps for the surveillance strongly depend on the bait used to attract mosquitoes. The objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness of BG-Sentinel traps baited with CO2 and BG-Lure. A total of 72 traps were deployed for 48 hours once a week for four weeks. For the initial 24-hour period, the traps were baited with CO2, and then for an additional 24 hours using the BG-Lure. Collected mosquitoes were analyzed using the Generalized Estimating Equation for repeated measures analysis. Biodiversity was assessed by the Shannon and Simpson indices and by individual rarefaction curves and SHE profiles. A total of 5,154 mosquitoes were collected, from which 3,514 by traps baited with CO2 and 1,640 mosquitoes by traps baited with BG-Lure. Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus were the most abundant and dominant species. Results from the Generalized Estimating Equation models indicated that more than twice as many mosquitoes were attracted CO2 than to the BG-Lure. The comparison of attractiveness of CO2 and BG-Lure to Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus was non-significant, suggesting that both species were equally attracted by the baits. The individual rarefaction curves for Ae. aegypti and Cx. quinquefasciatus imply that traps baited with BG-Lure underestimated mosquito species richness compared to those baited with CO2. BG-Lure were less effective in attracting mosquitoes with low abundances and failed to collect Cx. coronator and Cx. nigripalpus, which were consistently collected by traps baited with CO2. According to our results, CO2 significantly (P<0.05) attracted more mosquitoes (2.67 adjusted odds ratios) than the BG-Lure when adjusted for time and species, being more effective in assessing the relative abundance of vector mosquitoes and yielding more trustworthy results. Traps baited with CO2 collected not only more specimens, but also more species in a more consistent pattern.

Screening the Blood Supply for Zika Virus in the 50 U.S. States and Puerto Rico: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2016, universal individual donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT) of donated blood for Zika virus began in U.S. states and territories.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of universal ID-NAT in the first year of screening compared with alternatives for the 50 states and separately for Puerto Rico.

DESIGN

Microsimulation that captured Zika-related harms to transfusion recipients, sexual partners, and their infants.

DATA SOURCES

National testing results compiled by AABB and costs, utilities, and outcome probabilities estimated from the literature.

TARGET POPULATION

Transfusion recipients.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Societal.

INTERVENTION

Universal ID-NAT, universal mini-pool NAT (MP-NAT), and ID-NAT exclusively for components transfused to women of childbearing age. Seasonally targeted strategies in Puerto Rico and geographically targeted strategies in the 50 states were also considered.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and outcomes.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

In Puerto Rico, MP-NAT exclusively during high mosquito season was cost-effective at $81 123 per QALY (95% CI, -$49 138 to $978 242 per QALY). No screening policy was cost-effective in the 50 states. Universal ID-NAT cost $341 million per QALY (CI, $125 million to $2.90 billion per QALY) compared with no screening in the 50 states.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In Puerto Rico, MP-NAT only during the season of high mosquito activity was most cost-effective in 64% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis iterations. In the 50 states, no intervention was cost-effective in 99.99% of iterations. Cost-effectiveness was highly dependent on the rate of assumed infectious donations.

LIMITATION

Data were limited on the component-specific transmissibility of Zika and long-term sequelae of infection.

CONCLUSION

Screening was cost-effective only in the high mosquito season in Puerto Rico, and no evaluated screening policy was cost-effective in the 50 states. During periods with lower rates of Zika-infectious donations, the cost-effectiveness of screening will be even less favorable.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

None.

Microcephaly inpatient hospitalization and potential Zika outbreak in Texas: A cost and predicted economic burden analysis

OBJECTIVE

Estimate inpatient hospitalization costs for patients with microcephaly, and predict cost increases due to a potential Zika virus outbreak.

METHODS

We identified Texas-wide inpatient hospitalization discharge records (2008-2015), for newborns and non-newborns with microcephaly. We estimated the cost of each hospitalization by applying cost-to-charge ratios on the actual hospitalization charge. For comparison, newborn visits for patients without microcephaly were also identified, and hospital costs were compared between patients with and without microcephaly. We estimated costs for microcephaly during the first year of life following a Zika outbreak (possible 1-50% increase in birth prevalence) in Texas.

RESULTS

There were 8005 microcephaly hospitalizations ($203,899,042; total cost). The median admission cost for newborns with microcephaly (N = 1393) was higher compared to those without microcephaly ($6751 vs $725, p < 0.001). Microcephaly hospitalizations of newborns had a lower median cost compared to non-newborns ($6751 vs $9754, p < 0.001). Based on these observed hospitalization costs, we estimated that a potential Zika virus outbreak in Texas could result in an additional $1-6 million per year for hospitalizations.

CONCLUSION

Hospitalizations of patients with microcephaly are associated with high costs. An increase in microcephaly prevalence due to a Zika outbreak in Texas could have a considerable impact on health care costs.

The economic burden of Lyme disease and the cost-effectiveness of Lyme disease interventions: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

While Lyme disease (LD) is mostly treatable, misdiagnosed or untreated LD can result in debilitating sequelae and excessive healthcare usage. The objective of this review was to characterize the body of literature on the economic burden of Lyme disease (LD) and the cost-effectiveness of LD interventions, such as antibiotic treatment and vaccination.

METHODS

We followed Joanna Briggs Institute scoping review methodologies. We systematically searched terms related to LD, economic evaluations, costs, and cost-effectiveness in Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Cochrane Library, and the grey literature up to November 2017. We included primary economic evaluations conducted in North America and Europe, reporting LD-related costs or cost-effectiveness of human interventions. Two reviewers screened articles and charted data independently. Costs were standardized to 2017 United States dollars (USD).

RESULTS

We screened 923 articles, and included 10 cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) and 11 cost analyses (CA). Three CEAs concluded LD vaccination was likely cost-effective only in endemic areas (probability of infection ≥1%). However, LD vaccination is not currently available as an intervention in the US or Europe. Six studies assessed economic burden from a societal perspective and estimated significant annual national economic impact of: 735,550 USD for Scotland (0.14 USD per capita, population = 5.40M), 142,562 USD in Sweden (0.014 USD per capita, 9.96M), 40.88M USD in Germany (0.51 USD per capita, 80.59M), 23.12M USD in the Netherlands (1.36 USD per capita, 17.08M), and up to 786M USD in the US (2.41 USD per capita, 326.63M).

CONCLUSIONS

Lyme disease imposes an economic burden that could be considered significant in the US and other developed countries to justify further research efforts in disease control and management. Societal costs for Lyme disease can be equally impactful as healthcare costs, but are not fully understood. Economic literature from countries with historically high incidence rates or increasing rates of Lyme disease are limited, and can be useful for future justification of resource allocation.

Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic

BACKGROUND

Local mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties in the contiguous United States (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the contiguous US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US.

METHODS

We present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the contiguous US during the 2015-2016 epidemic using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental, and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulates their potential to have triggered local transmission at the individual level in the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic.

RESULTS

We estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025° × 0.025° cell level across the contiguous US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the epidemic observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the model allows us to generate statistical estimates of the number of ZIKV introductions leading to local transmission in each location. We find that the risk was spatially heterogeneously distributed and concentrated in a few specific areas that account for less than 1% of the contiguous US population. Locations in Texas and Florida that have actually experienced local ZIKV transmission were among the places at highest risk according to our results. We also provide an analysis of the key determinants for local transmission and identify the key introduction routes and their contributions to ZIKV transmission in the contiguous US.

CONCLUSIONS

This framework provides quantitative risk estimates, fully captures the stochasticity of ZIKV introduction events, and is not biased by the under-ascertainment of cases due to asymptomatic cases. It provides general information on key risk determinants and data with potential uses in defining public health recommendations and guidance about ZIKV risk in the US.

Zika outbreak aftermath: status, progress, concerns and new insights

Zika, a neurotrophic virus belonging to Flaviviridae family of viruses and transmitted by vector mosquitoes of Aedes species, took the world by storm during its recent outbreak. Its spread to newer territories, unprecedented pace of transmission, lack of existing therapeutic agents and vaccines and an empty drug pipeline raised an alarm. Uncertainty about full spectrum of diseases and its long-term consequences, newly discovered modes of transmission and controversies over vector status of mosquito species like Culex quinquefasciatus led to layers of complexity and presented new hurdles and challenges in Zika virus research. This review summarizes the progress and updates of efforts, concerns, financial burden and available resources in light of newly acquired knowledge in Zika virus research.

The global fight to develop antipoverty vaccines in the anti-vaccine era

Antipoverty vaccines are the vaccines targeting a group of approximately 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), as currently defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The “antipoverty” moniker refers to the fact that NTDs trap populations in poverty due to their chronic and deleterious effects on child intellect and worker productivity. Therefore, NTD vaccines can be expected to promote both global health and economic advancement. Unfortunately, antipoverty vaccine development has lagged behind vaccines for major childhood infections and pandemic threats, despite evidence for their cost-effectiveness and cost-savings. Currently, the only licensed vaccines for NTDs include those for yellow fever, dengue, and rabies, although several other NTD vaccines for hookworm disease, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and Zika and Ebola virus infections are in different stages of clinical development, while others are at the preclinical development stage. With the exception of the viral NTD vaccines there so far has been minimal industry interest in the antipoverty vaccines, leaving their development to a handful of non-profit product development partnerships. The major scientific and geopolitical hurdles to antipoverty vaccine development are discussed, including a rising antivaccine (“antivax”) movement now entering highly populated low- and middle-income countries.

Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the usually-undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.

Transgenic Mosquitoes - Fact or Fiction?

Technologies for controlling mosquito vectors based on genetic manipulation and the release of genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs) are gaining ground. However, concrete epidemiological evidence of their effectiveness, sustainability, and impact on the environment and nontarget species is lacking; no reliable ecological evidence on the potential interactions among GMMs, target populations, and other mosquito species populations exists; and no GMM technology has yet been approved by the WHO Vector Control Advisory Group. Our opinion is that, although GMMs may be considered a promising control tool, more studies are needed to assess their true effectiveness, risks, and benefits. Overall, several lines of evidence must be provided before GMM-based control strategies can be used under the integrated vector management framework.

Point-of-Care Molecular Test for Zika Infection

The recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has led to a serious threat to public health. Rapid and sensitive diagnostics for ZIKV infection are crucial because Zika infection is usually mild and often asymptomatic, but may have serious consequences to infants born to infected mothers. We report on a simple, sensitive, inexpensive, point-of-care (POC) diagnostic technology for rapid detection of ZIKV in saliva. We use a chemically heated cup for isothermal amplification without a need for electrical power. The detection results can be directly read out by eye.