Space-time risk cluster of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazilian endemic region with high social vulnerability: An ecological time series study

Mortality due to visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil by municipalities, 2001-2018: a spatial-temporal analysis of estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study

OBJECTIVES

In the American regions, Brazil accounts for 97% of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases, with a case fatality rate of approximately 10%. This study aimed to investigate the VL mortality distribution in Brazil and identify high-priority and high-risk areas for intervention strategies.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an ecological study that analysed the spatial-temporal patterns of VL mortality in Brazilian municipalities.

METHODS

Age-standardised VL mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease study from 2001 to 2018 were used. The distribution of mortality in the municipalities was assessed, and subsequently the Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) analysis was conducted to identify contiguous areas with high mortality rates. Scan analysis identified clusters of high spatial-temporal risks.

RESULTS

The highest mortality rates and clusters were in municipalities located in the Northeast region and in the states of Tocantins and Roraima (North region), Mato Grosso do Sul (Central-West region), and Minas Gerais (Southeast region). According to LISA, there was an increase in the number of municipalities classified as high priority from the first 3-year period (n = 434) to the last 3-year period (n = 644). The spatio-temporal analysis identified 21 high-risk clusters for VL mortality.

CONCLUSION

Areas with a high risk of VL mortality should prioritise preventing transmission, invest in early diagnosis and treatment, and promote the training of healthcare professionals.

Profile and temporal dynamics of the feline sporotrichosis epidemic in southern Brazil: A forecasting analysis

A detailed clinical-epidemiological analysis of feline sporotrichosis was conducted, and 288 cases reported between the years 2007 and 2018 were analyzed. The studied cases primarily involved mongrel cats (240/260), males (212/282), and adults (121/200). The main objectives were to identify the risk factors, calculate the monthly incidence rates, and establish a predictive model using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) approach. The statistical analysis revealed significant associations (p < 0.05) between prolonged lesion evolution times and factors such as respiratory signs, prior treatments, and lesion contact. Empirical treatment was identified as a significant risk factor for disease progression. Moreover, the number of cases demonstrated an increasing trend over the study period, with annual peaks noted in disease incidence. The SARIMA model proved to be an effective tool for forecasting the incidence of sporotrichosis, offering robust support for epidemiological surveillance and facilitating targeted public health interventions in endemic regions. The predictive accuracy of the developed model underscored its utility in enhancing disease monitoring and supporting proactive health measures for the effective management of sporotrichosis.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: A nonlinear regression analysis

AIMS

This study describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of new visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases notified in Brazil between 2001 and 2020.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data on the occurrence of the disease were obtained by means of the Notifiable Diseases Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Joinpoint, temporal generalized additive models and conditional autoregressive (CAR) models were used to analyse the temporal evolution of the rates in Brazil, states and regions. Spatio-temporal generalized additive and CAR models were used to identify the distribution of annual risks of VL occurrence in the Brazilian territory in relation to variation in the spatial average. There were 63,966 VL cases in the target period (3.198 cases/year), corresponding to a mean incidence rate of 1.68 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Of these, 4451 resulted in deaths, which gives a mean mortality rate of 0.12 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and a case fatality of 6.96%. The highest incidence rate was found in the North region, followed closely by the Northeast region, which presented the second and first highest mortality rates, respectively. For all of Brazil, and in the Northeast region, there were stability in the incidence rates, while the other regions showed an increasing trend in different time segments in the period: Central-West up to 2011, North up to 2008, Southeast up to 2004, and South up to 2010. On the other hand, all regions experienced a reduction in incidence rate during the last years of the series. The Northeast region had the highest number of municipalities with statistically significant elevated relative risks. The spatio-temporal analysis showed the highest risk area predominantly in the Northeast region in the beginning of the time series. From 2002 to 2018, this area expanded to the interior of the country.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study has shown that VL has expanded in Brazil. However, the North and Northeast regions continue to have the highest incidence, and the risk of infection has decreased in recent years.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: An Ecological Study

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015-2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran's Indices and retrospective space-time scan statistics were used in spatial and space-time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (-46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (-54.70%), North (-49.97%), and Northeast (-44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.

Looking through the lens of social science approaches: A scoping review of leishmaniases and Chagas disease research

Scholars have called for increased attention to sociocultural, economic, historical, and political processes shaping Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) ecology. We conducted a scoping review to identify major research themes and the knowledge gaps in social science literature in leishmaniases or Chagas disease (CD). Following the scoping review protocol, we first determined the focus of the review to be centered on identifying research that approaches leishmaniases and CD from social science perspective and was indexed by large, biomedically focused databases. We then searched PubMed and Web of Science using "Leishmaniasis" and "Chagas disease" with "social science" or "anthropology" as search terms. We analyzed 199 articles (123 on leishmaniases and 76 on CD), categorizing them into three main research themes. Sociocultural dimensions of the diseases (leishmaniases=60.2 %; CD=68.4 %) primarily focused on individuals' knowledge, practices, and behaviors, barriers to accessing healthcare (especially in endemic regions), psychosocial effects, stigma, and traditional treatments. Research focused on socioeconomic dimensions of the diseases (leishmaniases=29.3 %; CD=19.7 %) included topics like household characteristics, social capital, and infrastructure access. A final theme, the historical and political contexts of the diseases (Leishmaniases=10.5 %; CD=11.9 %) was less common than other themes. Here, studies consider civil war and the (re)emergence of leishmaniasis, as well as the significance of CD discovery for scientific and public health in Brazil, which is the most common country for research on both leishmaniases and CD that draws on social science approaches. Future directions for research include focusing on how social institutions and economic factors shape diseases education, control measures, healthcare access, and quality of life of people affected by NTDs. Greater attention to social sciences can help mitigate and undo the ways that structural biases have infiltrated biomedicine.

Reduced HIV/AIDS diagnosis rates and increased AIDS mortality due to late diagnosis in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected global health, leading to the suspension of numerous routine healthcare services and posing challenges in efforts to control other diseases, such as HIV/AIDS. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality rates in Brazil during 2020 and 2021. The percentage change was calculated to determine whether there was an increase or decrease in HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality, considering the average numbers from the last 5 years. Additionally, a Joinpoint regression model and an interrupted time series analysis were applied to assess time trends before and after the onset of the pandemic. Lastly, choropleth maps were prepared. We observed a reduction of 22.4% (2020) and 9.8% (2021) in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS in Brazil. Conversely, there was a significant increase in the percentage change of late diagnosis of AIDS deaths in 2020 (6.9%) and 2021 (13.9%), with some states showing an increase of over 87%. Decreasing time trends in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS were identified before the pandemic in Brazil, especially in the Southeast and South regions, and then time trends stabilized after including the pandemic years. Along with the dissemination of COVID-19, there was a reduction in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS and an increase in late diagnosis AIDS deaths, signaling a serious impact of the pandemic on HIV/AIDS control strategies in Brazil. Therefore, we highlight the need for continuous efforts to control both diseases, that is, maintaining regular health services even in crisis situations.

[Spatial-temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil from 2007 to 2020Distribución espaciotemporal de la leishmaniasis visceral en Brasil en el período 2007-2020]

Objective

To analyze the dynamics of the spatial and temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil from 2007 to 2020.

Method

This ecological study focused on the spatial pattern of visceral leishmaniasis cases in Brazil from 2007 to 2020 using data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN). The variables analyzed were the incidence rate of visceral leishmaniasis and the visceral leishmaniasis composite indicator (VLCI), from which triennial thematic maps were constructed. The global Moran index was calculated to assess the existence of spatial autocorrelation, and the local Moran index was used to identify areas with higher and lower risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil.

Results

During the study period, there were 48 705 cases of visceral leishmaniasis, with an incidence rate of 25.53 cases per 100 000 population. There was spatial autocorrelation in all triennial blocks, with municipalities in the North and Northeast regions having an incidence equal to or greater than 50 cases per 100 000 population. Regarding the VLCI there was an increase in the number of municipalities classified as low risk for transmission, and a growing presence of state capitals with a classification of very high risk.

Conclusion

The incidence of visceral leishmaniasis varied over the trienniums. The border region between the states of Tocantins, Maranhão, and Pará, along with the state of Ceará, stood out in the spatial distribution of the disease incidence and risk stratification by VLCI. These areas should be a priority for surveillance and control efforts for the disease.

Vaccine value profile for leishmaniasis

Leishmania infections are global, occurring in 98 countries and all World Health Organization (WHO) regions with 600 million to 1 billion people at risk of infection. Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with almost 20,000 reported deaths annually, with children under 5 years of age being at the greatest risk of mortality. Amongst WHO-recognised Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), leishmaniasis is one of the most important in terms of mortality and morbidity. With an increasing global burden of disease and a growing threat from climate change, urbanisation and drug resistance, there remains an imperative to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. New tools to understand correlates of protection and to assess vaccine efficacy are being developed to ease the transition into larger scale efficacy trials or provide alternate routes to licensure. Early indications suggest a diverse portfolio of manufacturers exists in endemic countries with an appetite to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. This Vaccine Value Profile (VVP) provides a high-level, comprehensive assessment of the currently available data to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of leishmaniasis vaccines. The leishmaniasis VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, public health groups, policy organizations, and non-profit organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the leishmaniasis VVP and have collectively described the state of knowledge and identified the current gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Socio-geographical factors and vulnerability to leptospirosis in South Brazil

BACKGROUND

Leptospirosis, caused by the Leptospira bacteria, is an acute infectious disease that is mainly transmitted by exposure to contaminated soil or water, thereby presenting a wide range of subsequent clinical conditions. This study aimed to assess the distribution of cases and deaths from leptospirosis and its association with social vulnerability in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, between 2010 and 2019.

METHODS

The lethality rates and incidence of leptospirosis and their association with gender, age, education, and skin color were analyzed using chi-square tests. The spatial relationship between the environmental determinants, social vulnerability, and the incidence rate of leptospirosis in the different municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul was analyzed through spatial regression analysis.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 4,760 cases of leptospirosis, along with 238 deaths, were confirmed. The mean incidence rate was 4.06 cases/100,000 inhabitants, while the mean fatality rate was 5%. Although the entire population was susceptible, white-colored individuals, males, people of the working-age group, along with less-educated individuals, were more affected by the disease. Lethality was higher in people with dark skin, and the prime risk factor associated with death was the direct contact of the patients with rodents, sewage, and garbage. The social vulnerability was positively associated with the incidence of leptospirosis in the Rio Grande do Sul, especially in municipalities located in the center of the state.

CONCLUSIONS

It is evident that the incidence of the disease is significantly related to the vulnerability of the population. The use of the health vulnerability index showed great relevance in the evaluation of leptospirosis cases and can be used further as a tool to help municipalities identify disease-prone areas for intervention and resource allocation.

Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that is globally distributed and has the potential to cause very serious illness. Prior literature highlights the emergence and spread of VL is influenced by multiple factors, such as socioeconomic status, sanitation levels or animal and human reservoirs. The study aimed to retrospectively investigate the presence and infectiousness of VL in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil between 2007 and 2020. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate municipality-specific relative risk of VL across space and time. The results show evidence that lower socioeconomic status is connected to higher municipality-specific VL risk. Overall, estimates reveal spatially heterogeneous VL risks in RN, with a high probability that VL risk for municipalities within the West Potiguar mesoregion are more than double the expected VL risk. Additionally, given the data available, results indicate there is a high probability of increasing VL risk in the municipalities of Natal, Patu and Pau dos Ferros. These findings demonstrate opportunities for municipality-specific public health policy interventions and warrant future research on identifying epidemiological drivers in at-risk regions.

Parasite Genotype Is a Major Predictor of Mortality from Visceral Leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a potentially fatal disease caused mainly by Leishmania infantum in South America and Leishmania donovani in Asia and Africa. Disease outcomes have been associated with patient genotype, nutrition, age, sex, comorbidities, and coinfections. In this study, we examine the effects of parasite genetic variation on VL disease severity in Brazil. We collected and sequenced the genomes of 109 L. infantum isolates from patients in northeastern Brazil and retrieved matching patient clinical data from medical records, including mortality, sex, HIV coinfection, and laboratory data (creatinine, hemoglobin, and leukocyte and platelet counts). We identified genetic differences between parasite isolates, including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), small insertions/deletions (indels), and variations in genic, intergenic, and chromosome copy numbers (copy number variants [CNVs]). To describe associations between the parasite genotypes and clinical outcomes, we applied quantitative genetics methods of heritability and genome-wide association studies (GWAS), treating clinical outcomes as traits that may be influenced by parasite genotype. Multiple aspects of the genetic analysis indicate that parasite genotype affects clinical outcomes. We estimate that parasite genotype explains 83% chance of mortality (narrow-sense heritability [h²] = 0.83 ± 0.17) and has a significant relationship with patient sex (h² = 0.60 ± 0.27). Impacts of parasite genotype on other clinical traits are lower (h² ≤ 0.34). GWAS analysis identified multiple parasite genetic loci that were significantly associated with clinical outcomes; 17 CNVs were significantly associated with mortality, two with creatinine, and one with bacterial coinfection, jaundice, and HIV coinfection, and two SNPs/indels and six CNVs were associated with age, jaundice, HIV and bacterial coinfections, creatinine, and/or bleeding sites. Parasite genotype is an important factor in VL disease severity in Brazil. Our analysis indicates that specific genetic differences between parasites act as virulence factors, enhancing risks of severe disease and mortality. More detailed understanding of these virulence factors could be exploited for novel therapies. IMPORTANCE Multiple factors contribute to the risk of mortality from visceral leishmaniasis (VL), including, patient genotype, comorbidities, and nutrition. Many of these factors are influenced by socioeconomic biases. Our work suggests that the virulence of the infecting parasite is an important risk factor for mortality. We pinpoint some specific genomic markers that are associated with mortality, which can lead to a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms that cause severe VL disease, to the identification of genetic markers for virulent parasites, and to the development of drug and vaccine therapies.

Spatial Heterogeneity and Its Influencing Factors of Syphilis in Ningxia, Northwest China, from 2004 to 2017: A Spatial Analysis

Syphilis remains a growing and resurging infectious disease in China. However, exploring the influence of environmental factors on the spatiotemporal distribution of syphilis remains under explore. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis in Ningxia, Northwest China, and its potential environmental influencing factors. Based on the standardized incidence ratio of syphilis for 22 administrative areas in Ningxia from 2004 to 2017, spatiotemporal autocorrelation and scan analyses were employed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of syphilis incidence, while a fixed-effect spatial panel regression model identified the potential factors affecting syphilis incidence. Syphilis incidence increased from 3.78/100,000 in 2004 to 54.69/100,000 in 2017 with significant spatial clustering in 2007 and 2009-2013. The "high-high" and "low-low" clusters were mainly distributed in northern and southern Ningxia, respectively. The spatial error panel model demonstrated that the syphilis incidence may be positively correlated with the per capita GDP and tertiary industry GDP and negatively correlated with the number of health facilities and healthcare personnel. Sex ratio and meteorological factors were not significantly associated with syphilis incidence. These results show that the syphilis incidence in Ningxia is still increasing and has significant spatial distribution differences and clustering. Socio-economic and health-resource factors could affect the incidence; therefore, strengthening syphilis surveillance of migrants in the economically developed region and allocating health resources to economically underdeveloped areas may effectively help prevent and control syphilis outbreaks in high-risk cluster areas of Ningxia.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Diagnosis of Tuberculosis in Brazil: Is the WHO End TB Strategy at Risk?

Background: In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched the “post-2015 End TB strategy”, that aims to end the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted global public health and the strict measures to control the coronavirus spread can affect the management of other diseases, such as TB. Herein, we aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of TB in Brazil, during 2020.

Methods: We carried out an ecological and population-based study, using spatial analysis techniques. The variables used were the new cases of TB, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and also baciloscopy-positive (BP) cases in Brazil between 2015 and 2020. The percentage of changes (% change) was calculated to verify if there was an increase or decrease of TB cases in 2020, along with time trend analyses given by Joinpoint regression model. Also, interrupted time series analyses were used to assess the trend of TB diagnosis before and after the onset of the COVID-19 in Brazil. Spatial distribution maps were elaborated, considering the % change of each Brazilian state.

Findings: Data analyses showed a reduction in the diagnosis of TB (−8.3%) and PTB (−8.1%) in Brazil after the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, 22 states depicted a reduction in TB diagnosis. An expressive reduction of BP cases (−17.1%) was also observed. Interestingly, interrupted time series analysis showed decline in TB and PTB diagnoses from March 2020. Spatial analyses revealed that all states had a progressive reduction of TB, PTB and PB cases, from March on, with the highest percentages of reduction in December (−100% to −75%).

Interpretation: Taken together, our analyses demonstrated a reduction in TB diagnosis after the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its regions, signaling a serious impact on the WHO “End TB Strategy” global plan.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of leprosy in Brazil: An ecological and population-based study

Background

The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has seriously affected global health, resulting in the suspension of many regular health services, making the diagnosis of other infections difficult. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of leprosy in Brazil during the year 2020.

Methods

We evaluated the monthly incidence of leprosy and calculated the percentage change to verify whether there was an increase or decrease in the number of leprosy cases in 2020, considering the monthly average of cases over the previous 5 years. We used interrupted time series analysis to assess the trend in the diagnosis of leprosy before and after the start of COVID-19 in Brazil and prepared spatial distribution maps, considering the percentage variation in each state.

Findings

We verified a reduction of 41.4% of leprosy cases in Brazil in 2020. Likewise, there was a reduction of leprosy notifications in children under 15 years-old (-56.82%). Conversely, the diagnosis of multibacillary leprosy increased (8.1%). There was a decreasing trend in the leprosy incidence in the general population between 2015 and 2020 in Brazil. Spatial distribution maps depicted a reduction of up to 100% in new cases of leprosy in some states.

Interpretation

Along with COVID-19 spread there was a reduction in leprosy diagnosis in the general population and children under 15 years-old, and also an increase in multibacillary cases diagnosed, signalling a serious impact of the pandemic on leprosy control strategies in Brazil.

Funding

This research received no specific grants.

Magnitude of visceral leishmaniasis and HIV coinfection and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast region of Brazil: a retrospective, spatiotemporal model (2010-2018)

The Northeast region of Brazil (NRB) includes the states with the highest prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), as well as those with significant increases in HIV cases. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of VL-HIV coinfection and its association with the social determinants of health (SDH) in the NRB. Time trend analysis and Bayesian spatial statistical inferences, Moran's autocorrelation, and retrospective space-time scanning were performed. Spatial regression modelling was used to build an explanatory model for the occurrence of VL-HIV coinfection within NRB. A total of 1550 cases of VL-HIV coinfection were confirmed. We observed a higher prevalence among males (1232; 83%), individuals aged from 20 to 59 years (850; 54.8%), non-white skin color (1,422; 91.7%), and with low education (550; 35.48%). NRB showed an increasing and significant trend in the detection rate of coinfection (APC, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.4 to 9.4). The states of Maranhão and Piauí comprised the high-risk cluster. The SDH that most correlated with the occurrence of coinfection were poor housing, low income, and low education. VL-HIV is dispersed in the NRB but chiefly affects states with greater social vulnerability. Taken together, these findings reinforce the necessity to implement surveillance strategies that will contribute to the reduction of cases in these populations.

Challenges and health-care priorities for reducing the burden of paediatric sepsis in Latin America: a call to action

Sepsis is a worldwide public health problem due to its high incidence and accompanying mortality, morbidity, and financial burden. It is a major cause of admission to paediatric intensive care units; despite advances in the diagnosis and treatment, both incidence and mortality are high in low-income and middle-income countries. There are several barriers in addressing the enormous burden of paediatric sepsis in these countries, which include: lack of data of incidence and mortality; unfamiliarity of sepsis by the lay public, leading to failure to seek care early, and by health professionals, leading to failure to treat emergently; and insufficient government funding for sepsis care programmes leading to inadequate staffing, material, and financial resources, and therefore, poor health systems. Socioeconomic inequalities, such as inequity and marked variation in income and education, high rates of malnutrition, high percentage of young population, and health systems that do not meet the population's demands also represent barriers in the care of children with sepsis in Latin America. In this Viewpoint, we draw attention to the problem of paediatric sepsis in Latin America and call for action to reduce the disease burden by proposing some solutions.

Spatiotemporal Pattern of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the First Year of the Pandemic in Brazil: A Population-based Study in a Region of High Social Vulnerability

Currently, the world is facing a severe pandemic caused by the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Although the WHO has recommended preventive measures to limit its spread, Brazil has neglected most of these recommendations, and consequently, our country has the second largest number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. In addition, recent studies have shown the relationship between socioeconomic inequalities and the risk of severe COVID-19 infection. Herein, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality and lethality rates of COVID-19 in a region of high social vulnerability in Brazil (Northeast region) during the first year of the pandemic. A segmented log-linear regression model was applied to assess temporal trends of mortality and case fatality rate (CFR) and according to the social vulnerability index (SVI). The Local Empirical Bayesian Estimator and Global Moran Index were used for spatial analysis. We conducted a retrospective space-time scan to map clusters at high risk of death from COVID-19. A total of 66,358 COVID-19-related deaths were reported during this period. The mortality rate was 116.2/100,000 inhabitants, and the CFR was 2.3%. Nevertheless, CFR was > 7.5% in 27 municipalities (1.5%). We observed an increasing trend of deaths in this region (AMCP = 18.2; P = 0.001). Also, increasing trends were observed in municipalities with high (N = 859) and very high SVI (N = 587). We identified two significant spatiotemporal clusters of deaths by COVID-19 in this Brazilian region (P = 0.001), and most high-risk municipalities were on the coastal strip of the region. Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that the pandemic has been responsible for several deaths in Northeast Brazil, with clusters at high risk of mortality mainly in municipalities on the coastline and those with high SVI.

Temporal and spatial trends in human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area in Northeast Brazil and their association with social vulnerability

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease of great importance to public health due to its wide distribution and close relationship with social and economic conditions. This study aimed to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) in an endemic state in the Northeast Region of Brazil and its spatial correlation with the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI).

METHODS

The study included all confirmed cases of HVL in Bahia from 2010 to 2017. A joinpoint regression model was used for trend analysis. Incidence rates were smoothed by a local empirical Bayesian model. Global and local Moran indices and space-time scan statistics were used for identification of spatial clusters. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between HVL incidence and the SVI and MHDI.

RESULTS

Cases of HVL demonstrated stationary behaviour during the period analysed. A significant association was observed between the HVL incidence rate and social vulnerability, with high-risk clusters concentrated in the central region of the state.

CONCLUSIONS

HVL has a strong correlation with social vulnerability in the state of Bahia. This study may provide assistance in planning actions and organizing health services to combat HVL.

Epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in mainland China: a population-based surveillance study from 2004 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Although visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was largely brought under control in most regions of China during the previous century, VL cases have rebounded in western and central China in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution of VL in mainland China from 2004 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence and mortality data for VL during the period 2004-2019 were collected from the Public Health Sciences Data Center of China and annual national epidemic reports of VL, whose data source was the National Diseases Reporting Information System. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to explore the trends of VL. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted to identify the distribution and risk areas of VL transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 4877 VL cases were reported in mainland China during 2004-2019, with mean annual incidence of 0.0228/100,000. VL incidence showed a decreasing trend in general during our study period (annual percentage change [APC] = -4.2564, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.0856 to -0.2677). Among mainly endemic provinces, VL was initially heavily epidemic in Gansu, Sichuan, and especially Xinjiang, but subsequently decreased considerably. In contrast, Shaanxi and Shanxi witnessed significantly increasing trends, especially in 2017-2019. The first-level spatial-temporal aggregation area covered two endemic provinces in northwestern China, including Gansu and Xinjiang, with the gathering time from 2004 to 2011 (relative risk [RR] = 13.91, log-likelihood ratio [LLR] = 3308.87, P < 0.001). The secondary aggregation area was detected in Shanxi province of central China, with the gathering time of 2019 (RR = 1.61, LLR = 4.88, P = 0.041). The epidemic peak of October to November disappeared in 2018-2019, leaving only one peak in March to May.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that VL is still an important endemic infectious disease in China. Epidemic trends in different provinces changed significantly and spatial-temporal aggregation areas shifted from northwestern to central China during our study period. Mitigation strategies, including large-scale screening, insecticide spraying, and health education encouraging behavioral change, in combination with other integrated approaches, are needed to decrease transmission risk in areas at risk, especially in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces.

Vulnerabilities to and the Socioeconomic and Psychosocial Impacts of the Leishmaniases: A Review

The leishmaniases are a group of four vector-borne neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with 1.6 billion people in some 100 countries at risk. They occur in certain eco-epidemiological foci that reflect manipulation by human activities, such as migration, urbanization and deforestation, of which poverty, conflict and climate change are key drivers. Given their synergistic impacts, risk factors and the vulnerabilities of poor populations and the launch of a new 2030 roadmap for NTDs in the context of the global sustainability agenda, it is warranted to update the state of knowledge of the leishmaniases and their effects. Using existing literature, we review socioeconomic and psychosocial impacts of leishmaniasis within a framework of risk factors and vulnerabilities to help inform policy interventions. Studies show that poverty is an overarching primary risk factor. Low-income status fosters inadequate housing, malnutrition and lack of sanitation, which create and exacerbate complexities in access to care and treatment outcomes as well as education and awareness. The co-occurrence of the leishmaniases with malnutrition and HIV infection further complicate diagnosis and treatment, leading to poor diagnostic outcomes and therapeutic response. Even with free treatment, households may suffer catastrophic health expenditure from direct and indirect medical costs, which compounds existing financial strain in low-income communities for households and healthcare systems. The dermatological presentations of the leishmaniases may result in long-term severe disfigurement, leading to stigmatization, reduced quality of life, discrimination and mental health issues. A substantial amount of recent literature points to the vulnerability pathways and burden of leishmaniasis on women, in particular, who disproportionately suffer from these impacts. These emerging foci demonstrate a need for continued international efforts to address key risk factors and population vulnerabilities if leishmaniasis control, and ultimately elimination, is to be achieved by 2030.

Cases and distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in western São Paulo: A neglected disease in this region of Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is one of the most prevalent parasitic diseases worldwide. In 2019, 97% of the total numbers of cases in Latin America were reported in Brazil. In São Paulo state, currently 17.6% of infected individuals live in the western region. To study this neglected disease on a regional scale, we describe the spread of VL in 45 municipalities of the Regional Network for Health Assistance11(RNHA11). Environmental, human VL (HVL), and canine VL (CVL) cases, Human Development Index, and Lutzomyia longipalpis databases were obtained from public agencies. Global Moran’s I index and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) statistics were used to identify spatial autocorrelation and to generate maps for the identification of VL clusters. On a local scale, we determined the spread of VL in the city of Teodoro Sampaio, part of the Pontal of Paranapanema. In Teodoro Sampaio, monthly peri-domicile sand fly collection; ELISA, IFAT and Rapid Test serological CVL; and ELISA HVL serum surveys were carried out. In RNHA11 from 2000 to 2018, Lu. longipalpis was found in 77.8%, CVL in 69%, and HVL in 42.2% of the 45 municipalities, and 537 individuals were notified with HVL. Dispersion occurred from the epicenter in the north to Teodoro Sampaio, in the south, where Lu. longipalpis and CVL were found in 2010, HVL in 2018, and critical hotspots of CVL were found in the periphery. Moran’s Global Index showed a weak but statistically significant spatial autocorrelation related to cases of CVL (I = 0.2572), and 11 municipalities were identified as priority areas for implementing surveillance and control actions. In RNHA11, a complex array of socioeconomic and environmental factors may be fueling the epidemic and sustaining endemic transmission of VL, adding to the study of a neglected disease in a region of São Paulo, Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considered the second most important disease caused by a protozoan worldwide. Currently, 97% of the cases in Latin America are in Brazil. In São Paulo state, since 1997, the disease has been found in an increasing number of municipalities, mainly in the western region. The reasons why VL is spreading in a crescent shape in this region is not well understood, however, socioeconomic and environmental risk factors that increase vulnerability to the disease may be involved. From 2000 to 2018, vectors of Lutzomyia longipalpis were found in 77.8%, canine VL in 69%, and human VL in 44.4% of the 45 municipalities of the western region. Dispersion occurred from the epicenter in the north and followed central and radial highways, reaching Teodoro Sampaio in the south. Among the 45 municipalities, 11 were identified as priority areas for implementing surveillance and control actions. Considered the last frontier and one of the poorest regions of São Paulo, our findings are relevant for planning interventions aimed at reducing the cases of VL in the region.