Locating pleistocene refugia: comparing phylogeographic and ecological niche model predictions

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Historical fragmentation and stepping-stone gene flow led to population genetic differentiation in a coastal seabird

Understanding the forces that shape population genetic structure is fundamental both for understanding evolutionary trajectories and for conservation. Many factors can influence the geographic distribution of genetic variation, and the extent to which local populations differ can be especially difficult to predict in highly mobile organisms. For example, many species of seabirds are essentially panmictic, but some show strong structure. Pigeon Guillemots (Cepphus columba; Charadriiformes: Alcidae) breed in small colonies scattered along the North Pacific coastline and feed in shallow nearshore waters year-round. Given their distribution, gene flow is potentially lower and population genetic structure is stronger than in most other high-latitude Northern Hemisphere seabirds. We screened variation in the mitochondrial control region, four microsatellite loci, and two nuclear introns in 202 Pigeon Guillemots representing three of five subspecies. Mitochondrial sequences and nuclear loci both showed significant population differences, although structure was weaker for the nuclear loci. Genetic differentiation was correlated with geographic distance between sampling locations for both the mitochondrial and nuclear loci. Mitochondrial gene trees and demographic modeling both provided strong evidence for two refugial populations during the Pleistocene glaciations: one in the Aleutian Islands and one farther east and south. We conclude that historical fragmentation combined with a stepping-stone model of gene flow led to the relatively strong population differentiation in Pigeon Guillemots compared to other high-latitude Northern Hemisphere seabird species. Our study adds to growing evidence that Pleistocene glaciation events affected population genetic structure not only in terrestrial species but also in coastal marine animals.

Ensemble species distribution modeling and multilocus phylogeography provide insight into the spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of a keystone forest species, Quercus glauca

BACKGROUND

Forests are essential for maintaining species diversity, stabilizing local and global climate, and providing ecosystem services. Exploring the impact of paleogeographic events and climate change on the genetic structure and distribution dynamics of forest keystone species could help predict responses to future climate change. In this study, we combined an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM) and multilocus phylogeography to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and distribution change of Quercus glauca Thunb, a keystone of East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest.

RESULTS

A total of 781 samples were collected from 77 populations, largely covering the natural distribution of Q. glauca. The eSDM showed that the suitable habitat experienced a significant expansion after the last glacial maximum (LGM) but will recede in the future under a general climate warming scenario. The distribution centroid will migrate toward the northeast as the climate warms. Using nuclear SSR data, two distinct lineages split between east and west were detected. Within-group genetic differentiation was higher in the West than in the East. Based on the identified 58 haplotypes, no clear phylogeographic structure was found. Populations in the Nanling Mountains, Wuyi Mountains, and the southwest region were found to have high genetic diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant negative correlation between habitat stability and heterozygosity might be explained by the mixing of different lineages in the expansion region after LGM and/or hybridization between Q. glauca and closely related species. The Nanling Mountains may be important for organisms as a dispersal corridor in the west-east direction and as a refugium during the glacial period. This study provided new insights into spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of Q. glauca.

Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia

Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.

From North/Central America to the World? Assessing the potential of Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus Guerin-Meneville (Heteroptera: Miridae) as a pest through Ecological Niche Models

BACKGROUND

Pycnoderes quadrimaculatus is a pest that feeds on several plants, many of which are economically important. It is native to North/Central America and its distribution has expanded to several countries in South America.

RESULTS

Ecological niche models show that P. quadrimaculatus has invaded regions with climates different from those of its native range, and that there are suitable climatic conditions for its establishment worldwide. Regions where P. quadrimaculatus is a major threat and possible natural pathways of ingression were identified. In the future, its distribution will be modified by climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides useful information for risk assessment and pest management of P. quadrimaculatus. According to our results, the species has great potential as a pest because it can adapt to different climatic conditions and feeds on a wide range of economically important plants. Over time, its distribution has expanded, and our models suggest that it will continue to invade other regions unless preventive measures are taken. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Demography and linked selection interact to shape the genomic landscape of codistributed woodpeckers during the Ice Age

The influence of genetic drift on population dynamics during Pleistocene glacial cycles is well understood, but the role of selection in shaping patterns of genomic variation during these events is less explored. We resequenced whole genomes to investigate how demography and natural selection interact to generate the genomic landscapes of Downy and Hairy Woodpecker, species codistributed in previously glaciated North America. First, we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of genomic diversity produced by neutral evolution. Next, we tested (i) whether levels of nucleotide diversity along the genome are correlated with intrinsic genomic properties, such as recombination rate and gene density, and (ii) whether different demographic trajectories impacted the efficacy of selection. Our results revealed cycles of bottleneck and expansion, and genetic structure associated with glacial refugia. Nucleotide diversity varied widely along the genome, but this variation was highly correlated between the species, suggesting the presence of conserved genomic features. In both taxa, nucleotide diversity was positively correlated with recombination rate and negatively correlated with gene density, suggesting that linked selection played a role in reducing diversity. Despite strong fluctuations in effective population size, the maintenance of relatively large populations during glaciations may have facilitated selection. Under these conditions, we found evidence that the individual demographic trajectory of populations modulated linked selection, with purifying selection being more efficient in removing deleterious alleles in large populations. These results highlight that while genome-wide variation reflects the expected signature of demographic change during climatic perturbations, the interaction of multiple processes produces a predictable and highly heterogeneous genomic landscape.

Identifying the Past, Present, and Future Distribution Patterns of the Balkan Wall Lizard (Sauria: Lacertidae: Podarcis tauricus) by Ecological Niche Modelling

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Diversity of Palaearctic Dragonflies and Damselflies (Odonata)

More than 1.2 million distribution records were used to create species distribution models for 402 Palaearctic species of dragonflies and damselflies. On the basis of these diversity maps of total, lentic and lotic diversity for the whole of the Palaearctic (excluding China and the Himalayan region) are presented. These maps show a clear pattern of decreasing diversity longitudinally, with species numbers dropping in the eastern half of Europe and remaining low throughout a large part of Russia, then increasing again towards Russia’s Far East and Korea. There are clear differences in diversity patterns of lentic and lotic species, with lentic species being dominant in colder and more arid areas. Areas with a high diversity of species assessed as threatened on the IUCN red list are largely restricted to the Mediterranean, Southwest Asia, and Japan, with clear hotspots found in the Levant and the southern half of Japan. The diversity at species, generic, and family level is higher in the south of Japan than in areas at a similar latitude in the western Mediterranean. This is likely to be the result of the more humid climate of Japan resulting in a higher diversity of freshwater habitats and the stronger impact of the glacial periods in the Western Palaearctic in combination with the Sahara, preventing tropical African lineages dispersing northwards.

Prebiotic chemical refugia: multifaceted scenario for the formation of biomolecules in primitive Earth

The origin of life was a cosmic event happened on primitive Earth. A critical problem to better understand the origins of life in Earth is the search for chemical scenarios on which the basic building blocks of biological molecules could be produced. Classic works in pre-biotic chemistry frequently considered early Earth as an homogeneous atmosphere constituted by chemical elements such as methane (CH₄), ammonia (NH₃), water (H₂O), hydrogen (H₂) and hydrogen sulfide (H₂S). Under that scenario, Stanley Miller was capable to produce amino acids and solved the question about the abiotic origin of proteins. Conversely, the origin of nucleic acids has tricked scientists for decades once nucleotides are complex, though necessary molecules to allow the existence of life. Here we review possible chemical scenarios that allowed not only the formation of nucleotides but also other significant biomolecules. We aim to provide a theoretical solution for the origin of biomolecules at specific sites named "Prebiotic Chemical Refugia." Prebiotic chemical refugium should therefore be understood as a geographic site in prebiotic Earth on which certain chemical elements were accumulated in higher proportion than expected, facilitating the production of basic building blocks for biomolecules. This higher proportion should not be understood as static, but dynamic; once the physicochemical conditions of our planet changed periodically. These different concentration of elements, together with geochemical and astronomical changes along days, synodic months and years provided somewhat periodic changes in temperature, pressure, electromagnetic fields, and conditions of humidity, among other features. Recent and classic works suggesting most likely prebiotic refugia on which the main building blocks for biological molecules might be accumulated are reviewed and discussed.

Birds adapted to cold conditions show greater changes in range size related to past climatic oscillations than temperate birds

Investigation of ecological responses of species to past climate oscillations provides crucial information to understand the effects of global warming. In this work, we investigated how past climate changes affected the distribution of six bird species with different climatic requirements and migratory behaviours in the Western Palearctic and in Africa. Species Distribution Models and Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 2 fossil occurrences of selected species were employed to evaluate the relation between changes in range size and species climatic tolerances. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) range predictions, generally well supported by the MIS 2 fossil occurrences, suggest that cold-dwelling species considerably expanded their distribution in the LGM, experiencing more pronounced net changes in range size compared to temperate species. Overall, the thermal niche proves to be a key ecological trait for explaining the impact of climate change in species distributions. Thermal niche is linked to range size variations due to climatic oscillations, with cold-adapted species currently suffering a more striking range reduction compared to temperate species. This work also supports the persistence of Afro-Palearctic migrations during the LGM due to the presence of climatically suitable wintering areas in Africa even during glacial maxima.

Genetic diversity and demography of Bufo japonicus and B. torrenticola (Amphibia: Anura: Bufonidae) influenced by the Quaternary climate

The Quaternary climate affected the present species richness and geographic distribution patterns of amphibians by limiting their activities during the glacial period. The present study examined the phylogenetic relationships of Japanese toads (Bufo japonicus and B. torrenticola) and the demography of each lineage from the past to the present based on mitochondrial sequences and ecological niche models. Japanese toads are a monophyletic group with two main clades (clades A and B). Clade A represents B. j. formosus, including three clades (clades A1, A2, and A3). Clade B contains three clades, two of which corresponded to B. j. japonicus (clades B1 and B2) and the other to B. torrenticola. Clade B2 and B. torrenticola made a sister group, and, thus, B. j. japonicus is paraphyletic. Clades A and B diverged in the late Miocene 5.7 million years ago (Mya) during the period when the Japanese archipelago was constructed. The earliest divergence between the three clades of clade A was estimated at 1.8 Mya. Clades A1 and A2 may have diverged at 0.8 Mya, resulting from the isolation in the multiple different refugia; however, the effects of the glacial climate on the divergence events of clade A3 are unclear. Divergences within clade B occurred from the late Pliocene to the early Pleistocene (3.2-2.2 Mya). Niche similarity between the parapatric clade in clade B (clades B1 and B2) indicated their allopatric divergence. It was suggested that niche segregation between B. japonicus and B. torrenticola contributed to a rapid adaptation of B. torrenticola for lotic breeding. All clade of Japanese toads retreated to each refugium at a low elevation in the glacial period, and effective population sizes increased to construct the current populations after the Last Glacial Maximum. Furthermore, we highlight the areas of climate stability from the last glacial maximum to the present that have served as the refugia of Japanese toads and, thus, affected their present distribution patterns.

Revisiting the comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America: 15 years of patterns and progress

In a landmark comparative phylogeographic study, “Comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America,” Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) identified geographic discontinuities in genetic variation shared across taxa occupying unglaciated eastern North America and proposed several common biogeographical discontinuities related to past climate fluctuations and geographic barriers. Since 2006, researchers have published many phylogeographical studies and achieved many advances in genotyping and analytical techniques; however, it is unknown how this work has changed our understanding of the factors shaping the phylogeography of eastern North American taxa. We analyzed 184 phylogeographical studies of eastern North American taxa published between 2007 and 2019 to evaluate: (1) the taxonomic focus of studies and whether a previously detected taxonomic bias towards studies focused on vertebrates has changed over time, (2) the extent to which studies have adopted genotyping technologies that improve the resolution of genetic groups (i.e., NGS DNA sequencing) and analytical approaches that facilitate hypothesis‐testing (i.e., divergence time estimation and niche modeling), and (3) whether new studies support the hypothesized biogeographic discontinuities proposed by Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) or instead support new, previously undetected discontinuities. We observed little change in taxonomic focus over time, with studies still biased toward vertebrates. Although many technological and analytical advances became available during the period, uptake was slow and they were employed in only a small proportion of studies. We found variable support for previously identified discontinuities and identified one new recurrent discontinuity. However, the limited resolution and taxonomic breadth of many studies hindered our ability to clarify the most important climatological or geographical factors affecting taxa in the region. Broadening the taxonomic focus to include more non‐vertebrate taxa, employing technologies that improve genetic resolution, and using analytical approaches that improve hypothesis testing are necessary to strengthen our inference of the forces shaping the phylogeography of eastern North America.

Glacial Expansion or Interglacial Expansion? Contrasting Demographic Models of Four Cold-Adapted Fir Species in North America and East Asia

Understanding and forecasting species’ response to climate change is a critical need for future conservation and management. Two expansion hypotheses, the glacial expansion versus the interglacial expansion, have been proposed to interpret how cold-adapted organisms in the northern hemisphere respond to Quaternary climatic fluctuations. To test these two hypotheses, we originally used two pairs of high-low elevation firs from North America (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies balsamea) and East Asia (Abies chensiensis and Abies nephrolepis). Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis are widely distributed in high-elevation regions of western North America and central China. Abies balsamea and Abies nephrolepis occur in central North America and northeast China, with much lower elevations. These fir species are typical cold-adapted species and sensitive to climate fluctuations. Here, we integrated the mtDNA and cpDNA polymorphisms involving 44 populations and 585 individuals. Based on phylogeographic analyses, recent historical range expansions were indicated in two high-elevation firs (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis) during the last glaciation (43.8–28.4 or 21.9–14.2 kya, 53.1–34.5 or 26.6–17.2 kya). Such glacial expansions in high-elevation firs were further confirmed by the evidence of species distribution modelling, geographic-driven genetic patterns, palynological records, and current distribution patterns. Unlike the north American firs, the SDM models indicated unremarkable expansion or contraction in East Asia firs for its much more stable conditions during different historical periods. Taken together, our findings highly supported that high-elevation firs experienced glacial expansion during the Quaternary climate change in East Asia and North America, as interglacial expansion within low-elevation firs. Under this situation, the critically endangered fir species distributed in high elevation would have no enough higher elevational space to migrate. Facing the increasing global warming, thus we proposed ex-situ conservation of defining conservation units as the most meaningful strategy.

Predicting potential distribution of Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen in China under climate change scenarios

Ziziphus spinosa (Bunge) H.H. Hu ex F.H. Chen is a woody plant species of the family Rhamnaceae (order Rhamnales) that possesses high nutritional and medicinal value. Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of Z. spinosa is of great significance for the investigation, protection, and exploitation of this germplasm resource. For this study, optimized maximum entropy models were employed to predict the distribution patterns and changes of its present (1970–2000) and future (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) potential suitable regions in China under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 & SSP5‐8.5). The results revealed that the total area of the present potential suitable region for Z. spinosa is 162.60 × 10⁴ km², which accounts for 16.94% of China's territory. Within this area, the regions having low, medium, and high suitability were 80.14 × 10⁴ km², 81.50 × 10⁴ km², and 0.96 × 10⁴ km², respectively, with the high suitability regions being distributed primarily in Shanxi, Hebei, and Beijing Provinces. Except for SSP‐1‐2.6‐2070s, SSP‐5‐8.5‐2070s, and SSP‐5‐8.5‐2090s, the suitable areas for Z. spinosa in the future increased to different degrees. Meanwhile, considering the distribution of Z. spinosa during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study predicted that the low impact areas of Z. spinosa were mainly restricted to Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin Provinces. The results of core distributional shifts showed that, except for SSP1‐2.6, the center of the potential suitable region of Z. spinosa exhibited a trend of gradually shifting to the northwest.

Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga ( Sistrurus tergeminus )

The western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus) is a small pit viper with an extensive geographic range, yet observations of this species are relatively rare. They persist in patchy and isolated populations, threatened by habitat destruction and fragmentation, mortality from vehicle collisions, and deliberate extermination. Changing climates may pose an additional stressor on the survival of isolated populations. Here, we evaluate historic, modern, and future geographic projections of suitable climate for S. tergeminus to outline shifts in their potential geographic distribution and inform current and future management. We used maximum entropy modeling to build multiple models of the potential geographic distribution of S. tergeminus. We evaluated the influence of five key decisions made during the modeling process on the resulting geographic projections of the potential distribution, allowing us to identify areas of model robustness and uncertainty. We evaluated models with the area under the receiver operating curve and true skill statistic. We retained 16 models to project both in the past and future multiple general circulation models. At the last glacial maximum, the potential geographic distribution associated with S. tergeminus occurrences had a stronghold in the southern part of its current range and extended further south into Mexico, but by the mid‐Holocene, its modeled potential distribution was similar to its present‐day potential distribution. Under future model projections, the potential distribution of S. tergeminus moves north, with the strongest northward trends predicted under a climate scenario increase of 8.5 W/m². Some southern populations of S. tergeminus have likely already been extirpated and will continue to be threatened by shifting availability of suitable climate, as they are already under threat from desertification of grasslands. Land use and habitat loss at the northern edge of the species range are likely to make it challenging for this species to track suitable climates northward over time.

Assessment of the potential establishment of Lyme endemic cycles in Mexico

Although Lyme disease is currently classified as exotic in Mexico, recent studies have suggested that it might be endemic there. We assessed the potential risk for the establishment of Borrelia burgdorferi transmission in Mexico. To identify the potential routes of B. burgdorferi spread, Complex Inference Networks were used initially to identify potential vector-host interactions between hard ticks (Ixodes) and migratory birds in the U.S., and a model for predicting the most important potential bird hosts of hard ticks was then obtained. By using network metrics, keystone-vectors were identified as those species with highest connectivity within and between network communities and had the potential to keep the pathogen circulating with many birds and to be dispersed to several regions. The climatic profile where these interactions occur in the U.S. was characterized and a geographic model for each keystone-vector was built. The accuracy of these models to predict areas where hard ticks have been reported positive for B. burgdorferi allows one to identify areas of greater risk of Lyme disease emergence. These hard tick-bird interactions and their climatic profile were mapped into the winter ranges of birds in Mexico. Thus, those regions in Mexico with the highest potential for becoming endemic areas of Lyme disease through the arrival of hard ticks and birds infected by B. burgdorferi were identified. These areas are candidates for future surveillance programs.

Ecological Divergence and the History of Gene Flow in the Nearctic Milksnakes (Lampropeltis triangulum Complex)

Many phylogeographic studies on species with large ranges have found genetic-geographic structure associated with changes in habitat and physical barriers preventing or reducing gene flow. These interactions with geographic space, contemporary and historical climate, and biogeographic barriers have complex effects on contemporary population genetic structure and processes of speciation. While allopatric speciation at biogeographic barriers is considered the primary mechanism for generating species, more recently it has been shown that parapatric modes of divergence may be equally or even more common. With genomic data and better modeling capabilities, we can more clearly define causes of speciation in relation to biogeography and migration between lineages, the location of hybrid zones with respect to the ecology of parental lineages, and differential introgression of genes between taxa. Here, we examine the origins of three Nearctic milksnakes (Lampropeltis elapsoides, Lampropeltis triangulum and Lampropeltis gentilis) using genome-scale data to better understand species diversification. Results from artificial neural networks show that a mix of a strong biogeographic barrier, environmental changes, and physical space has affected genetic structure in these taxa. These results underscore conspicuous environmental changes that occur as the sister taxa L. triangulum and L. gentilis diverged near the Great Plains into the forested regions of the Eastern Nearctic. This area has been recognized as a region for turnover for many vertebrate species, but as we show here the contemporary boundary does not isolate these sister species. These two species likely formed in the mid-Pleistocene and have remained partially reproductively isolated over much of this time, showing differential introgression of loci. We also demonstrate that when L. triangulum and L. gentilis are each in contact with the much older L. elapsoides, some limited gene flow has occurred. Given the strong agreement between nuclear and mtDNA genomes, along with estimates of ecological niche, we suggest that all three lineages should continue to be recognized as unique species. Furthermore, this work emphasizes the importance of considering complex modes of divergence and differential allelic introgression over a complex landscape when testing mechanisms of speciation. [Cline; delimitation; Eastern Nearctic; Great Plains; hybrids; introgression; speciation.].

San Josecito Cave and Its Paleoecological Contributions for Quaternary Studies in Mexico

San Josecito Cave (2250 m elevation) is located nearby Aramberri, Nuevo León, northeastern Mexico, with excavations occurring in 1935–1941 and 1990. It is a paleontological cave and the significance of its faunal data rests in the understanding of the Quaternary ecosystems of the Mexican Plateau and the Southern Plains. This significance is underpinned by a consideration of associated stratigraphic and geochronological data. The fauna is composed of mollusks, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. More than 30 extinct vertebrate species have been identified, constituting one of the most important Quaternary localities in the Americas. Radiocarbon dates and faunal correlations indicate the excavated deposits represent an interval of time between 45,000 and 11,000 14C years BP. The current synthesis demonstrates that the previous view of the assemblage as a single local fauna is erroneous and that, instead, several successive local faunas are present within a stratigraphic framework. This finding underscores the need for detailed studies of single localities in building paleoenvironmental models. As a corollary, results point to the necessity of including all vertebrate classes represented from a locality in building those models. In addition, the field and analytical methodologies demonstrate the importance of very detailed paleontological excavations, with precise spatial and temporal controls, to assess the taphonomic history of a locality, construct a stratigraphic and geochronological framework, and infer the paleoecological conditions during the time span considered based on the number of local faunas represented. The recognition of San Josecito Cave as an important Late Pleistocene vertebrate paleontological locality is enhanced with the consideration of its faunal data for paleoenvironment reconstruction and possible contribution to Quaternary paleoclimatic modeling.

Potential distribution of Amblyomma mixtum (Koch, 1844) in climate change scenarios in the Americas

Amblyomma mixtum is a Neotropical generalist tick of medical and veterinary importance which is widely distributed from United States of America to Ecuador. The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in the geographic projections of the ecological niche models of A. mixtum in climate change scenarios in America. We constructed a database of published scientific publications, personal collections, personal communications, and online databases. Ecological niche modelling was performed with 15 Bioclimatic variables using kuenm in R and was projected to three time periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Current and 2050) for America. Our model indicated a wide distribution for A. mixtum, with higher probability of occurrence along the Gulf of Mexico and occurring in a lesser proportion in the Pacific states, Central America, and the northern part of South America. The areas of new invasion are located mainly on the border of Mexico with Guatemala and Belize, some regions of Central America and Colombia. We conclude that the ecological niche modelling are effective tools to infer the potential distribution of A. mixtum in America, in addition to helping to propose future measures of epidemiological control and surveillance in the new potential areas of invasion.

The effects of climate and demographic history in shaping genomic variation across populations of the Desert Horned Lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos)

Species often experience spatial environmental heterogeneity across their range, and populations may exhibit signatures of adaptation to local environmental characteristics. Other population genetic processes, such as migration and genetic drift, can impede the effects of local adaptation. Genetic drift in particular can have a pronounced effect on population genetic structure during large-scale geographic expansions, where a series of founder effects leads to decreases in genetic variation in the direction of the expansion. Here, we explore the genetic diversity of a desert lizard that occupies a wide range of environmental conditions and that has experienced post-glacial expansion northwards along two colonization routes. Based on our analyses of a large SNP data set, we find evidence that both climate and demographic history have shaped the genetic structure of populations. Pronounced genetic differentiation was evident between populations occupying cold versus hot deserts, and we detected numerous loci with significant associations with climate. The genetic signal of founder effects, however, is still present in the genomes of the recently expanded populations, which comprise subsets of genetic variation found in the southern populations.

Centre-periphery approaches based on geography, ecology and historical climate stability: what explains the variation in morphological traits of Bulnesia sarmientoi?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The centre-periphery hypothesis posits that higher species performance is expected in geographic and ecological centres rather than in peripheral populations. However, this is not the commonly found pattern; therefore, alternative approaches, including the historical dimension of species geographical ranges, should be explored. Morphological functional traits are fundamental determinants of species performance, commonly related to environmental stability and productivity. We tested whether or not historical processes may have shaped variations in tree and leaf traits of the Chaco tree Bulnesia sarmientoi.

METHODS

Morphological variation patterns were analysed from three centre-periphery approaches: geographical, ecological and historical. Tree (stem and canopy) and leaf (leaf size and specific leaf area) traits were measured in 24 populations across the species range. A principal component analysis was performed on morphological traits to obtain synthetic variables. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test which of the implemented centre-periphery approaches significantly explained trait spatial patterns.

KEY RESULTS

The patterns retrieved from the three centre-periphery approaches were not concordant. The historical approach revealed that trees were shorter in centre populations than in the periphery. Significant differences in leaf traits were observed between the geographical centre and the periphery, mainly due to low specific leaf area values towards the geographical centre. We did not find any pattern associated with the ecological centre-periphery approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The decoupled response between leaf and tree traits suggests that these sets of traits respond differently to processes occurring at different times. The geographical and historical approaches showed centres with extreme environments in relation to their respective peripheries, but the historical centre has also been a climatically stable area since the Last Glacial Maximum. The historical approach allowed for the recovery of historical processes underlying variation in tree traits, highlighting that centre-periphery delimitations should be based on a multi-approach framework.

Spatial phylogenetics of butterflies in relation to environmental drivers and angiosperm diversity across North America

Broad-scale, quantitative assessments of insect biodiversity and the factors shaping it remain particularly poorly explored. Here we undertook a spatial phylogenetic analysis of North American butterflies to test whether climate stability and temperature gradients have shaped their diversity and endemism. We also performed the first quantitative comparisons of spatial phylogenetic patterns between butterflies and flowering plants. We expected concordance between the two groups based on shared historical environmental drivers and presumed strong butterfly-host plant specializations. We instead found that biodiversity patterns in butterflies are strikingly different from flowering plants, especially warm deserts. In particular, butterflies show different patterns of phylogenetic clustering compared with flowering plants, suggesting differences in habitat conservation between the two groups. These results suggest that shared biogeographic histories and trophic associations do not necessarily assure similar diversity outcomes. The work has applied value in conservation planning, documenting warm deserts as a North American butterfly biodiversity hotspot.

Integrated analysis of the ringneck snake Diadophis punctatus complex (Colubridae: Dipsadidae) in a biodiversity hotspot provides the foundation for conservation reassessment

Species classification may not reflect the underlying/cryptic genetic diversity and focusing on groups that do not represent historically independent units can misdirect conservation efforts. The identification of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) allows cryptic genetic diversity to be accounted for when designating conservation priorities. We used multi-locus coalescent-based species delimitation methods and multivariate analyses of morphological data to examine whether the subspecies merit conservation recognition and infer the ESUs in ringneck snakes (Diadophis punctatus) throughout the California Floristic Province. Species delimitation methods failed to recover groups consistent with designated subspecies and instead inferred three well supported, mostly geographically isolated lineages. Divergence time estimates suggest that the divergences were driven by historical isolation associated with Pleistocene climate shifts. We found a correlation between increased morphological differentiation and time since divergence, and greater niche similarity between the more recently diverged eastern California and western California groups. Based on these results, we propose that the morphological similarities are due to a combination of morphological conservatism and evolutionary stasis. Our study provides the foundation necessary to re-assess the biodiversity and conservation status of ringneck snakes and offers an important step in unveiling the diversity within the western portion of the genus’ range.

Phylogeography and demographic expansion in the widely distributed horned passalus beetle, Odontotaenius disjunctus (coleoptera: Passalidae)

Dynamic climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene had profound effects on the distribution of species across North America. Although the role of historical climate change on speciation remains controversial, the impact on genetic variation within species has been well documented. Analyses of mtDNA sequences from the cytochrome oxidase I gene (911 bp) for 115 individuals of Odontotaenius disjunctus was combined with ecological niche modelling (ENM) to infer the demographic and population differentiation scenarios under present and past conditions. We inferred three lineages that diverged during the Pleistocene and replace each other geographically across the eastern United States. One of these lineages traverses previously identified genetic barriers for terrestrial animals including the Mississippi and Apalachicola Rivers and the Appalachian Mountains. We observed overlapping ranges between two haplotype groups as well as a region of secondary contact associated with ecological transition zone in northern Florida. The two continental lineages depict a genetic signature of a recent population increase associated with expanding niche envelope, whereas the clade restricted to peninsular Florida shows stable populations in a shrinking niche envelope. Given the lack of ecological separation, overlapping distribution of haplogroups and the presence of secondary contact zones, the taxonomic status of these lineages must await robust testing using multilocus DNA data to assess species boundaries.

Evidence for ephemeral ring species formation during the diversification history of western fence lizards (Sceloporus occidentalis)

Divergence is often ephemeral, and populations that diverge in response to regional topographic and climatic factors may not remain reproductively isolated when they come into secondary contact. We investigated the geographical structure and evolutionary history of population divergence within Sceloporus occidentalis (western fence lizard), a habitat generalist with a broad distribution that spans the major biogeographical regions of Western North America. We used double digest RAD sequencing to infer population structure, phylogeny and demography. Population genetic structure is hierarchical and geographically structured with evidence for gene flow between biogeographical regions. Consistent with the isolation-expansion model of divergence during Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles, gene flow and secondary contact are supported as important processes explaining the demographic histories of populations. Although populations may have diverged as they spread northward in a ring-like manner around the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Ranges, there is strong evidence for gene flow among populations at the northern terminus of the ring. We propose the concept of an "ephemeral ring species" and contrast S. occidentalis with the classic North American ring species, Ensatina eschscholtzii. Contrary to expectations of lower genetic diversity at northern latitudes following post-Quaternary-glaciation expansion, the ephemeral nature of divergence in S. occidentalis has produced centres of high genetic diversity for different reasons in the south (long-term stability) vs. the north (secondary contact).

Resolving spatial complexities of hybridization in the context of the gray zone of speciation in North American ratsnakes (Pantherophis obsoletus complex)

Inferring the history of divergence between species in a framework that permits the presence of gene flow has been crucial for characterizing the "gray zone" of speciation, which is the period of time where lineages have diverged but have not yet achieved strict reproductive isolation. However, estimates of both divergence times and rates of gene flow often ignore spatial information, for example when considering the location and width of hybrid zones with respect to changes in the environment between lineages. Using population genomic data from the North American ratsnake complex (Pantherophis obsoletus), we connected phylogeographic estimates of lineage structure, migration, historical demography, and timing of divergence with hybrid zone dynamics. We examined the spatial context of diversification by linking migration and timing of divergence to the location and widths of hybrid zones. Artificial neural network approaches were applied to understand how landscape features and past climate have influenced population genetic structure among these lineages. We found that rates of migration between lineages were associated with the overall width of hybrid zones. Timing of divergence was not related to migration rate or hybrid zone width across species pairs but may be related to the number of alleles weakly introgressing through hybrid zones. This research underscores how incomplete reproductive isolation can be better understood by considering differential allelic introgression and the effects of historical and contemporary landscape features on the formation of lineages as well as overall genomic estimates of migration rates through time.

Genome-wide genetic variation coupled with demographic and ecological niche modeling of the dusky-footed woodrat (Neotoma fuscipes) reveal patterns of deep divergence and widespread Holocene expansion across northern California

Understanding how species have responded to past climate change may help refine projections of how species and biotic communities will respond to future change. Here, we integrate estimates of genome-wide genetic variation with demographic and niche modeling to investigate the historical biogeography of an important ecological engineer: the dusky-footed woodrat, Neotoma fuscipes. We use RADseq to generate a genome-wide dataset for 71 individuals from across the geographic distribution of the species in California. We estimate population structure using several model-based methods and infer the demographic history of regional populations using a site frequency spectrum-based approach. Additionally, we use ecological niche modeling to infer current and past (Last Glacial Maximum) environmental suitability across the species' distribution. Finally, we estimate the directionality and possible spatial origins of regional population expansions. Our analyses indicate this species is subdivided into three regionally distinct populations, with the deepest divergence occurring ~1.7 million years ago across the modern-day San Francisco-Bay Delta region; a common biogeographic barrier for the flora and fauna of California. Our models of environmental suitability through time coincide with our estimates of population expansion, with relative long-term stability in the southern portion of the range, and more recent expansion into the northern end of the range. Our study illustrates how the integration of genome-wide data with spatial and demographic modeling can reveal the timing and spatial extent of historic events that determine patterns of biotic diversity and may help predict biotic response to future change.

Coastal Pine-Oak Glacial Refugia in the Mediterranean Basin: A Biogeographic Approach Based on Charcoal Analysis and Spatial Modelling

During the glacial episodes of the Quaternary, European forests were restricted to small favourable spots, namely refugia, acting as biodiversity reservoirs. the Iberian, Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been considered as the main glacial refugia of trees in Europe. In this study, we estimate the composition of the last glacial forest in a coastal cave of the Cilento area (SW Italy) in seven time frames, spanning from the last Pleniglacial to the Late Glacial. Charcoal analyses were performed in seven archaeological layers. Furthermore, a paleoclimate modelling (Maxent) approach was used to complement the taxonomic identification of charcoal fragments to estimate the past potential distribution of tree species in Europe. Our results showed that the mesothermophilous forest survived in this region in the core of the Mediterranean basin during the Last Glacial Period (LGP, since ~36 ka cal BP), indicating that this area played an important role as a reservoir of woodland biodiversity. Here, Quercus pubescens was the most abundant component, followed by a wide variety of deciduous trees and Pinus nigra. Charcoal data also pointed at the crucial role of this coastal area, acting as a reservoir for warm temperate trees of genera Tilia, Carpinus and Sambucus, in LGP, in the Mediterranean region. Our modelling results showed that P. nigra might be the main candidate as a “Pinus sylvestris type” in the study site in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, we found that P. nigra might coexist with Q. pubescens in several European territories both currently and in the LGM. All models showed high levels of predictive performances. Our results highlight the advantage of combining different approaches such as charcoal analysis and ecological niche models to explore biogeographic questions about past and current forest distribution, with important implications to inform today’s forest management and conservation.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

Genotyping-by-sequencing and ecological niche modeling illuminate phylogeography, admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides)

Populus tremuloides is the widest-ranging tree species in North America and an ecologically important component of mesic forest ecosystems displaced by the Pleistocene glaciations. Using phylogeographic analyses of genome-wide SNPs (34,796 SNPs, 183 individuals) and ecological niche modeling, we inferred population structure, ploidy levels, admixture, and Pleistocene range dynamics of P. tremuloides, and tested several historical biogeographical hypotheses. We found three genetic lineages located mainly in coastal-Cascades (cluster 1), east-slope Cascades-Sierra Nevadas-Northern Rockies (cluster 2), and U.S. Rocky Mountains through southern Canadian (cluster 3) regions of the P. tremuloides range, with tree graph relationships of the form ((cluster 1, cluster 2), cluster 3). Populations consisted mainly of diploids (86%) but also small numbers of triploids (12%) and tetraploids (1%), and ploidy did not adversely affect our genetic inferences. The main vector of admixture was from cluster 3 into cluster 2, with the admixture zone trending northwest through the Rocky Mountains along a recognized phenotypic cline (Utah to Idaho). Clusters 1 and 2 provided strong support for the "stable-edge hypothesis" that unglaciated southwestern populations persisted in situ since the last glaciation. By contrast, despite a lack of clinal genetic variation, cluster 3 exhibited "trailing-edge" dynamics from niche suitability predictions signifying complete northward postglacial expansion. Results were also consistent with the "inland dispersal hypothesis" predicting postglacial assembly of Pacific Northwestern forest ecosystems, but rejected the hypothesis that Pacific-coastal populations were colonized during outburst flooding from glacial Lake Missoula. Overall, congruent patterns between our phylogeographic and ecological niche modeling results and fossil pollen data demonstrate complex mixtures of stable-edge, refugial locations, and postglacial expansion within P. tremuloides. These findings confirm and refine previous genetic studies, while strongly supporting a distinct Pacific-coastal genetic lineage of quaking aspen.

A fine-tuned global distribution dataset of marine forests

Species distribution records are a prerequisite to follow climate-induced range shifts across space and time. However, synthesizing information from various sources such as peer-reviewed literature, herbaria, digital repositories and citizen science initiatives is not only costly and time consuming, but also challenging, as data may contain thematic and taxonomic errors and generally lack standardized formats. We address this gap for important marine ecosystem-structuring species of large brown algae and seagrasses. We gathered distribution records from various sources and provide a fine-tuned dataset with ~2.8 million dereplicated records, taxonomically standardized for 682 species, and considering important physiological and biogeographical traits. Specifically, a flagging system was implemented to signal potentially incorrect records reported on land, in regions with limiting light conditions for photosynthesis, and outside the known distribution of species, as inferred from the most recent published literature. We document the procedure and provide a dataset in tabular format based on Darwin Core Standard (DwC), alongside with a set of functions in R language for data management and visualization.

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Semiliquidambar cathayensis is a special and endangered plant in China, used for traditional Chinese medicine and in landscape applications. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of S. cathayensis is crucial for its protection and the sustainable use of resources. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized by the ENMeval data packet to analyze the potential geographic distribution changes of S. cathayensis in 12 provinces of Southern China for the different periods since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). Considering the potential geographic distribution changes in the province, and based on the two climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5, the distribution range of S. cathayensis was analyzed and we predicted the range for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080). The area under AUC (Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.9388 under these parameters, which indicates that the model is very accurate. We speculate that the glacial period refugia were the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains for S. cathayensis, and central and Western Fujian and Taiwan are likely to be the future climate refugia. In the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka), the growth habitat was 32.41% larger than the modern habitat; in the 2050s and 2070s (except RCP2.6–2070s), the growth habitat will shrink to varying degrees, so efforts to support its in situ and ex situ conservation are urgently needed. The jackknife test showed that the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of S. cathayensis were annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation of the driest month. The annual precipitation may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of S. cathayensis. In general, the centroid of the distribution of S. cathayensis will move northward. The centroid of the adaptive habitats will move northward with the highest degree of climate abnormality. We think that Hainan Island is the most likely origin of S. cathayensis. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of genetic resources protection measures, the construction of core germplasm resources, and the study of the formation and evolution of Hamamelidaceae.

Biogeographic barriers, Pleistocene refugia, and climatic gradients in the southeastern Nearctic drive diversification in cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex)

The southeastern Nearctic is a biodiversity hotspot that is also rich in cryptic species. Numerous hypotheses (e.g., vicariance, local adaptation, and Pleistocene speciation in glacial refugia) have been tested in an attempt to explain diversification and the observed pattern of extant biodiversity. However, previous phylogeographic studies have both supported and refuted these hypotheses. Therefore, while data support one or more of these diversification hypotheses, it is likely that taxa are forming within this region in species-specific ways. Here, we generate a genomic data set for the cornsnakes (Pantherophis guttatus complex), which are widespread across this region, spanning both biogeographic barriers and climatic gradients. We use phylogeographic model selection combined with hindcast ecological niche models to determine regions of habitat stability through time. This combined approach suggests that numerous drivers of population differentiation explain the current diversity of this group of snakes. The Mississippi River caused initial speciation in this species complex, with more recent divergence events linked to adaptations to ecological heterogeneity and allopatric Pleistocene refugia. Lastly, we discuss the taxonomy of this group and suggest there may be additional cryptic species in need of formal recognition.

Concealed truth: Modeling reveals unique Quaternary distribution dynamics and refugia of four related endemic keystone Abies taxa on the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the factors driving the Quaternary distribution of Abies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for biodiversity conservation and for predicting future anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. Here, we collected Quaternary paleo-, palynological, and phylogeographical records from across the TP and applied ecological niche models (ENMs) to obtain a profound understanding of the different adaptation strategies and distributional changes in Abies trees in this unique area. We identified environmental variables affecting the different historical biogeographies of four related endemic Abies taxa and rebuilt their distribution patterns over different time periods, starting from the late Pleistocene. In addition, modeling and phylogeographic results were used to predict suitable refugia for Abies forrestii, A. forrestii var. georgei, A. fargesii var. faxoniana, and A. recurvata. We supplemented the ENMs by investigating pollen records and diversity patterns of cpDNA for them. The overall reconstructed distributions of these Abies taxa were dramatically different when the late Pleistocene was compared with the present. All Abies taxa gradually receded from the south toward the north in the last glacial maximum (LGM). The outcomes showed two well-differentiated distributions: A. fargesii var. faxoniana and A. recurvata occurred throughout the Longmen refuge, a temporary refuge for the LGM, while the other two Abies taxa were distributed throughout the Heqing refuge. Both the seasonality of precipitation and the mean temperature of the driest quarter played decisive roles in driving the distribution of A. fargesii var. faxoniana and A. recurvata, respectively; the annual temperature range was also a key variable that explained the distribution patterns of the other two Abies taxa. Different adaptation strategies of trees may thus explain the differing patterns of distribution over time at the TP revealed here for endemic Abies taxa.

Sufficient versus optimal climatic stability during the Late Quaternary: using environmental quality to guide phylogeographic inferences in a Neotropical montane system

Quaternary climatic oscillations affected species distributions worldwide, creating cycles of connectivity and isolation that impacted population demography and promoted lineage divergence. These effects have been well studied in temperate regions. Taxa inhabiting mesic montane habitats in tropical ecosystems show high levels of endemism and diversification in the distinct mountain ranges they inhabit; such a pattern has commonly been ascribed to past climatic oscillations, but few phylogeographic studies have tested this hypothesis. Here, we combine ecological niche models of species distributions with molecular data to study phylogeographic patterns in two rodents endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and western Panama (Reithrodontomys creper and Nephelomys devius). In so doing, we apply a novel approach that incorporates a basic ecological principle: the expected positive relationship between environmental suitability and population abundance. Specifically, we use niche models to predict potential patterns of population connectivity and stability of different suitability levels during climatic extremes of the last glacial–interglacial cycle; we then test these predictions with population genetic analyses of a mitochondrial and a nuclear marker. The detailed predictions arising from the different levels of suitability were moderately to highly congruent with the molecular data depending on the species. Overall, results suggest that in these tropical montane ecosystems, cycles of population connectivity and isolation followed a pattern opposite to that typically described for temperate or lowland tropical ecosystems: namely, higher connectivity during the colder glacials, with isolation in montane refugia during the interglacials, including today. Nevertheless, the individualistic patterns for each species indicate a potentially wide gamut of phylogeographic histories reflecting particularities of their niches. Taken together, this study illustrates how phylogeographic inferences may benefit from niche model outputs that provide more detailed predictions of connectivity and finer characterizations of potential refugia through time.

Predictive Modeling of Suitable Habitats for Cinnamomum Camphora (L.) Presl Using Maxent Model under Climate Change in China

Rapid changes in global climate exert tremendous pressure on forest ecosystems. Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl is a multi-functional tree species, and its distribution and growth are also affected by climate warming. In order to realize its economic value and ecological function, it is necessary to explore the impact of climate change on its suitable habitats under different scenarios. In this experiment, 181 geographical distribution data were collected, and the MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. To complete the simulation, we selected two greenhouse gas release scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and also three future time periods, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. The importance of environmental variables for modeling was evaluated by jackknife test. Our study found that accumulated temperature played a key role in the distribution of camphor trees. With the change of climate, the area of suitable range will increase and continue to move to the northwest of China. These findings could provide guidance for the plantation establishment and resource protection of camphor in China.

The configuration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the Quaternary

Our understanding of how global climatic changes are translated into ice-sheet fluctuations and sea-level change is currently limited by a lack of knowledge of the configuration of ice sheets prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here, we compile a synthesis of empirical data and numerical modelling results related to pre-LGM ice sheets to produce new hypotheses regarding their extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) at 17 time-slices that span the Quaternary. Our reconstructions illustrate pronounced ice-sheet asymmetry within the last glacial cycle and significant variations in ice-marginal positions between older glacial cycles. We find support for a significant reduction in the extent of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during MIS 3, implying that global sea levels may have been 30–40 m higher than most previous estimates. Our ice-sheet reconstructions illustrate the current state-of-the-art knowledge of pre-LGM ice sheets and provide a conceptual framework to interpret NH landscape evolution.

How global climatic changes are translated into ice-sheet fluctuations and sea-level change is not well understood. Here the authors present a compilation of empirical data and numerical modelling results of pre-LGM Northern Hemisphere ice sheet changes and show pronounced ice-sheet asymmetry within the last glacial cycle and significant variations in ice-marginal positions between older glacial cycles.

Ecological Release of the Anna's Hummingbird during a Northern Range Expansion

During range expansions, species can experience rapid population growth if changes in climate or interspecific interactions remove limits on growth rates in novel habitats. Here I document a century of range expansion in the Anna's hummingbird (Calypte anna) and investigate the causes of its recent abundance through a combination of demographic, climatic, and phenological analyses. Christmas Bird Count records indicate that populations have been growing in California since the early twentieth century. Sites across the Pacific Northwest show striking fits to simple models of exponential growth following colonization in the 1960s and 1970s, and nest records indicate that the species now delays the start of the nesting season by at least 16 days in the north. Although the species now occurs in a much wider range of climates than before the range expansion, the fastest growing populations in the northwest are in regions with minimum breeding season temperatures similar to those occupied by the species in its native range. Range expansions in the Anna's hummingbird thus reflect an ecological release likely caused by a mix of introduced plants, human facilitation, and phenological acclimation that allowed a California native to expand across western North America.

Markers in time and space: A review of the last decade of plant phylogeographic approaches

Plant studies comprise a relatively small proportion of the phylogeographic literature, likely as a consequence of the fundamental challenges posed by the complex genomic structures and life history strategies of these organisms. Comparative plastomics (i.e., comparisons of mutation rates within and among regions of the chloroplast genome) across plant lineages has led to an increased understanding of which markers are likely to provide the most information at low taxonomic levels. However, the extent to which the results of such work have influenced the literature has not been fully assessed, nor has the extent to which plant phylogeographers explicitly analyse markers in time and space, both of which are integral components of the field. Here, we reviewed more than 400 publications from the last decade of plant phylogeography to specifically address the following questions: (i) What is the phylogenetic breadth of studies to date? (ii) What molecular markers have been used, and why were they chosen? (iii) What kinds of markers are most frequently used and in what combinations? (iv) How frequently are divergence time estimation and ecological niche modelling used in plant phylogeography? Our results indicate that chloroplast DNA sequence data remain the primary tool of choice, followed distantly by nuclear DNA sequences and microsatellites. Less than half (42%) of all studies use divergence time estimation, while even fewer use ecological niche modelling (14%). We discuss the implications of our findings, as well as the need for community standards on data reporting.

The Origins and Diversification of the Exceptionally Rich Gemsnakes (Colubroidea: Lamprophiidae: Pseudoxyrhophiinae) in Madagascar

Processes leading to spectacular diversity of both form and species on islands have been well-documented under island biogeography theory, where distance from source and island size are key factors determining immigration and extinction resistance. But far less understood are the processes governing in situ diversification on the world’s mega islands, where large and isolated land masses produced morphologically distinct radiations from related taxa on continental regions. Madagascar has long been recognized as a natural laboratory due to its isolation, lack of influence from adjacent continents, and diversification of spectacular vertebrate radiations. However, only a handful of studies have examined rate shifts of in situ diversification for this island. Here, we examine rates of diversification in the Malagasy snakes of the family Pseudoxyrhophiinae (gemsnakes) to understand if rates of speciation were initially high, enhanced by diversification into distinct biomes, and associated with key dentition traits. Using a genomic sequence-capture data set for 366 samples, we determine that all previously described and newly discovered species are delimitable and therefore useful candidates for understanding diversification trajectories through time. Our analysis detected no shifts in diversification rate between clades or changes in biome or dentition type. Remarkably, we demonstrate that rates of diversification of the gemsnake radiation, which originated in Madagascar during the early Miocene, remained steady throughout the Neogene. However, we do detect a significant slowdown in diversification during the Pleistocene. We also comment on the apparent paradox where most living species originated in the Pleistocene, despite diversification rates being substantially higher during the earlier 15 myr.