The impact of economic crises on communicable disease transmission and control: a systematic review of the evidence

Evaluation of post-COVID mortality risk in cases classified as severe acute respiratory syndrome in Brazil: a longitudinal study for medium and long term

Background

There are few studies in the literature evaluating post-COVID mortality in Brazil, along medium and long term, especially in those who presented severe clinical disease.

Objective

This study aims to investigate the factors associated with post-COVID mortality of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases from 2020 to 2023 in Brazil, along medium and long term.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study using notification data of SARS classified as COVID-19 from the Brazilian National Information System, "Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica (SIVEP)," during the period 2020 to 2023. Data included demographics, comorbidities, vaccination status, number of COVID-19 vaccine doses, city of residence, and survival outcomes. Classic Cox, Cox mixed effects, and Cox fragility models were used to assess medium and long-term risks of dying post-COVID.

Results

In the medium and long-term periods studied, 5,157 deaths were recorded out of 15,147 reported SARS/COVID-19 cases. Of these deaths, 91.5% (N = 4,720) occurred within the first year, while 8,5% (N = 437) after the first year. People without formal education, the older adult, had higher percentages of deaths in both periods. In the medium-term post-COVID period, the risk of death was reduced by 8% for those who had been vaccinated while in the long-term post-COVID period, the risk of death almost doubled for those who had been vaccinated. While in the medium term, there was a reduction in mortality risk for those who took two or three doses, in the long term the risk of death was greater for those who took one or two doses.

Conclusion

The protective effect of COVID-19 immunization was observed up to one year after the first symptoms. After one year, the effect was reversed, showing an increased risk of death for those vaccinated. These results highlight the need for further research to elucidate the factors that contribute to these findings.

Impact of migrants on communicable diseases in Thailand

BACKGROUND

While foreign migrants contribute to economic development, they may impact public health by transmitting communicable diseases to the local population. With its geopolitical position, Thailand has been a primary destination for migrants from neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia and beyond. This positioning makes it a focal point for examining the complexities of migration dynamics and its implications for public health. Through a quantitative analysis, this paper investigates the influence of foreign migrants on physical health issues in Thailand, exploring their impact on various types of communicable diseases. The utilization of provincial-level data from Thailand offers insights into the localized effects of migrant populations on public health within the country. These insights can serve as a valuable resource for researchers and policymakers who conduct comparative analyses, facilitating a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between international migration and public health worldwide.

METHODS

A spatial panel autoregressive model (SAR) is applied on the provincial level communicable diseases and socio-economic data in Thailand from the period 2016 to 2021.

RESULTS

The results indicate that the influence of foreign migrants on communicable diseases in Thailand varies depending on the type of disease. While an increase in migrants correlates with a higher prevalence of respiratory and other communicable diseases, it conversely reduces the prevalence of vaccine-preventable diseases. Additionally, we found that migrants do not significantly impact the prevalence of food- and water-borne diseases, insect-borne diseases, animal-borne diseases, or sexually transmitted diseases in Thailand. Additionally, other factors, such as GPP per capita, unemployment, poverty, and technology access, strongly correlate with most types of communicable diseases.

CONCLUSION

As revealed by this study, the increase in migrants leads to a rise in respiratory and other communicable diseases, as well as a decrease in vaccine-preventable diseases, which carries significant policy implications. These results urge policymakers, the Ministry of Labour, and the Ministry of Public Health to implement tailored policies and measures to enhance public health and effectively mitigate the risk of communicable diseases transmitted by migrants in the future.

Economic sanctions and spread of infectious diseases

Economic sanctions can induce economic crises and compromise the determinants of health. In the literature, economic crises have been found to increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Presumably, sanctions can increase the risk of infectious disease spreads, indirectly. However, non-economic factors can fuel the adverse impact of sanctions, including political consequences of sanctions and civil war. We performed a systematic literature review of articles in Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and the grey literature to assess empirically the impact of economic sanctions on the spread of infectious diseases within and beyond the borders of sanctioned countries. Our review did not identify any study meeting our inclusion criteria. Most of the studies did not control for major socio-political events, particularly armed conflicts in the sanctioned countries. This discovery underscores a notable gap in the examination of the impact of economic sanctions on the propagation of infectious diseases, presenting a threat to global health. Using the social-ecological model, we hypothesize how the economic crisis resulting from economic sanctions affects determinants of health, increases the risk of the spread of infectious diseases and hinders the response capacity of health systems.

Annual incidence and fatality rates of notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China from 1950 to 2022 and relationship to socioeconomic development

Background

Over the past 70 years, China has advanced significantly in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases while simultaneously undergoing a socioeconomic transformation, making it a useful source of data for analysing relationships between public health policy and the control of infectious diseases.

Methods

We collected data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases and associated fatalities in Jiangsu province in southeast China from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, and the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. We compared data from different historical periods using descriptive statistical methods, joinpoint regression, and correlation analysis.

Results

During 1950-2022, 75 754 008 cases of 46 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jiangsu, with an average annual incidence was 1679.49 per 100 000 population and a fatality rate of 1.82 per 1000 persons. The incidence of classes A-B decreased (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.1) during the entire study period, while the incidence of class C increased (AAPC = 10.8) after 2004. The incidence of intestinal diseases (AAPC = -4.4) and vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (AAPC = -8.1) decreased rapidly, while the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases (AAPC = 1.8) increased. The number of medical and health institutions and the per capita gross domestic product correlated negatively with the annual incidence of diseases in classes A-B, but not with fatality rates.

Conclusions

Although the annual incidence of many severe infectious diseases has decreased in Jiangsu since 1950, the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases increased. Socioeconomic growth and sustainable investment in health systems are associated with better control of infectious diseases.

Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2000-2018 in a Specialised Centre: Comparison between Pre-Crisis, Crisis, and Post-Crisis Period

(1) Background: Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) are a major public health problem due to their consequences in sexual and reproductive health. There is a close link between the crisis and the increase in communicable diseases. The objective of this study was to analyse the evolution of Sexually Transmitted Infections during the period 2000-2018 in the population attending the Centre for Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Sexual Orientation in Granada (Spain), specifically comparing the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. (2) Methods: A retrospective, observational, and analytical study was conducted by reviewing medical records. The sample analysed comprised 1666 cases. (3) Results: During the pre-crisis period (2000-2007), the percentage of diagnoses was 41.6% (n = 126) compared to 58.4% (n = 177) of negative results; during the crisis, the percentages were 63.5% (n = 183) and 36.5% (n = 105), respectively; and during the post-crisis period, the percentages were 42.9% (n = 157) and 57.1% (n = 209), respectively. The variables that were significantly associated with STI diagnosis were the time periods analysed, sexual orientation, occupation, and age at first intercourse. The evolution of the number of positive diagnoses during the entire study period showed a trend of progressive increase in Sexually Transmitted Infections from 2000 to 2018. (4) Conclusions: The period of economic crisis presented a higher risk of infection, although this is a finding with certain limitations due to the lack of homogeneity between the periods analysed.

Risk perception of Ebola virus disease and COVID-19 among transport drivers living in Ugandan border districts

Background

Cross-border movements between districts bordering Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are common due to the interdependence between populations on either side, though this increases the risk of the international spread of infectious diseases. Due to the nature of their work, boda boda drivers (motorcycle taxis), taxis and truck drivers continue to cross the border during epidemics. However, perceived risk of contracting and spreading communicable diseases may be influenced by several factors such as the level of education, packaging and perception of health care messages, limited interaction with local socio-cultural dynamics or personal experiences. This study aims to explore differences in movement patterns and risk perceptions as factors for transmission among transport drivers in Ugandan border districts during the 2018-2020 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

Between May and June 2021, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with transport drivers in three Ugandan districts bordering DRC (Kasese, Kisoro and Hoima). Participants were asked about their knowledge and beliefs about EVD and COVID-19, perceived risk during epidemics, reasons for, and travel patterns during the EVD epidemic and COVID- 19 pandemic. A thematic content analysis was applied.

Results

Participants' awareness of EVD was higher than that of COVID-19 however, the risk of transmission of Ebola virus was perceived as a remote threat. Measures restricting mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on transport drivers compared to those implemented during the EVD epidemic, and were perceived as prohibitive rather than protective, largely due to fear of reprisals by security officers. Despite this, drivers were unlikely to be able to comply with the restrictions as they relied on their work as a source of income.

Conclusion

The vulnerabilities of transport drivers should be considered in the context of epidemics such EVD and COVID-19 in Uganda. Policy makers should address these particularities and assess the impact of public health measures on transport drivers' mobility and involve them in designing of mobility-relatedpolicies.

Health inequalities in infectious diseases: a systematic overview of reviews

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this systematic overview of reviews was to synthesise available evidence on inequalities in infectious disease based on three dimensions of inequalities; inclusion health groups, protected characteristics and socioeconomic inequalities.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and OpenGrey databases in November 2021. We included reviews published from the year 2000 which examined inequalities in the incidence, prevalence or consequences of infectious diseases based on the dimensions of interest. Our search focused on tuberculosis, HIV, sexually transmitted infections, hepatitis C, vaccination and antimicrobial resistance. However, we also included eligible reviews of any other infectious diseases. We appraised the quality of reviews using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews V.2 (AMSTAR2) checklist. We conducted a narrative data synthesis.

RESULTS

We included 108 reviews in our synthesis covering all the dimensions of inequalities for most of the infectious disease topics of interest, however the quality and volume of review evidence and consistency of their findings varied. The existing literature reviews provide strong evidence that people in inclusion health groups and lower socioeconomic status are consistently at higher risk of infectious diseases, antimicrobial resistance and incomplete/delayed vaccination. In the protected characteristics dimension, ethnicity, and sexual orientation are important factors contributing to inequalities across the various infectious disease topics included in this overview of reviews.

CONCLUSION

We identified many reviews that provide evidence of various types of health inequalities in different infectious diseases, vaccination, and antimicrobial resistance. We also highlight areas where reviews may be lacking. The commonalities in the associations and their directions suggest it might be worth targeting interventions for some high risk-groups that may have benefits across multiple infectious disease outcomes rather than operating purely in infectious disease siloes.

Are austerity measures really distressing? Evidence from Italy

Since 2007 financial recovery plans have been adopted by some Italian regions to contain the costs of the healthcare sector. It is legitimate to ask whether spending cuts associated with the austerity policy have had any effect on the health of the citizens. We examine the indirect impact of financial recovery plans on a broad set of health indicators, accounting for several dimensions of both physical and psychological diseases. We use an instrumental variable fixed-effects model to control for time-varying heterogeneity and to deal with the potential endogeneity of the enrolment in the austerity programme. We find that the Italian austerity policy Piano di Rientro resulted in unintended negative effects on several dimensions of health, hurting and potentially jeopardising the health of citizens.

The long-term dynamic relationship between communicable disease spread, economic prosperity, greenhouse gas emissions, and government health expenditures: preparing for COVID-19-like pandemics

The spread of communicable diseases, such as COVID-19, has a detrimental effect on our socio-economic structure. In a dynamic log-run world, socio-economic and environmental factors interact to spread communicable diseases. We investigated the long-term interdependence of communicable disease spread, economic prosperity, greenhouse gas emissions, and government health expenditures in India's densely populated economy using a variance error correction (VEC) approach. The VEC model was validated using stationarity, cointegration, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and normality tests. Our impulse response and variance decomposition analyses revealed that economic prosperity (GNI) significantly impacts the spread of communicable diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, government health expenditures, and GNI. Current health expenditures can reduce the need for future increases, and the spread of communicable diseases is detrimental to economic growth. Developing economies should prioritize economic growth and health spending to combat pandemics. Simultaneously, the adverse effects of economic prosperity on environmental degradation should be mitigated through policy incentives.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Physicians' Working Hours and Earnings in São Paulo and Maranhão States, Brazil

Evidence exists on the health impacts of the current COVID-19 pandemic on health workers, but less is known about its impact on their work dynamics and livelihoods. This matters, as health workers-and physicians in particular-are a scarce and expensive resource in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our cross-sectional survey set out to explore changes in working hours and earnings during the second year of the pandemic in a representative sample of 1183 physicians in Brazil's São Paulo (SP) and Maranhão (MA) states. Descriptive analysis and inferential statistics were employed to explore differences in working hours and earnings among public and private sector physicians across the two locations. The workloads and earnings of doctors working exclusively in the public sector increased the most in the second year of the epidemic, particularly in MA. Conversely, the largest proportion of private-only doctors in our sample saw a decrease in their working hours (48.4%, 95% CI 41.8-55.0), whereas the largest proportion of public-only doctors in MA saw an increase in their working hours (44.4%, 95% CI 38.0-50.8). Although earnings remained broadly stable in the public sector, a third of public sector-only physicians in MA saw an increase in their earnings (95% CI 24.4-36.2). More than half of private-only doctors across both states saw a decrease in their earnings (52.2%, 95% CI 45.6-58.8). The largest proportion of dual practitioners (the majority in Brazil and in our sample) maintained their pre-pandemic levels of income (38.8%, 95% CI 35.3-42.3). As public-sector doctors have been key in the fight against the pandemic, it is critical to invest in these cadres in order to develop epidemic preparedness in LMICs, and to find new ways to harness for-profit actors to deliver social benefits.

Is Buying Local Less Expensive? Debunking a Myth—Assessing the Price Competitiveness of Local Food Products in Canada

It is well known that many consumers believe local foods are more expensive than comparative products coming from other markets. The aim of this study was to measure the price competitiveness of products certified by the Aliments du Québec program, a well-known program in the Canadian province of Quebec. Using machine-learning, artificial intelligence and targeted data mining, the report identifies local products and comparator products, to consider whether locally certified products are more expensive than comparative products coming from outside Quebec. Uncertified products used as comparative products come from anywhere around the world, outside of the province of Quebec. For this study, a total of more than 350,000 discrete price data points were analyzed in the Winter 2022. Local product prices were examined relative to the prices of comparator products. In total, there were 48 subcategories considered. In 70.83% of the subcategories, the local product was either as expensive (similar price) or less expensive than the comparator product. Results challenge the popular belief that local food products are often more expensive. This study also provides limitation and future research paths.

Economic change and population health: lessons learnt from an umbrella review on the Great Recession

OBJECTIVES

Worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the sharpest economic downturn since the Great Recession. To prepare for future crises and to preserve public health, we conduct an overview of systematic reviews to examine the evidence on the effect of the Great Recession on population health.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses focusing specifically on the impact of the Great Recession on population health (eg, mental health). Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed throughout this review and critical appraisal of included systematic reviews was performed using Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies were identified and consistently showed that the Great Recession was most risky to health, the more a country's economy was affected and the longer strict austerity policies were in place. Consequently, a deterioration of health was highest in countries that had implemented strict austerity measures (eg, Greece), but not in countries that rejected austerity measures (eg, Germany). Moreover, the impact of the Great Recession fell disproportionately on the most vulnerable groups such as people in unemployment, at risk of unemployment and those living in poverty.

CONCLUSIONS

The experiences of the last economic crisis show that it is possible to limit the consequences for health. Prioritising mental healthcare and prevention, foregoing austerity measures in the healthcare system and protecting vulnerable groups are the most important lessons learnt. Moreover, given the further aggravating social inequalities, a health in all policies approach, based on a comprehensive Health Impact Assessment, is advised.

Understanding the Effect of Economic Recession on Healthcare Services: A Systematic Review

Background

We aimed to examine the available evidence about the impact of the crisis on the use of healthcare services in Europe.

Methods

We developed a systematic review of scientific literature for the period 2008-2017. The researchers searched three databases Medline/PubMed, Scopus and Web of Knowledge. For manual searching, several specialized journals of related scope as well as the finalized articles' reference list were searched. Descriptive and thematic analyses were carried out. PRISMA quality criteria and the recommendations of the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination were followed.

Results

Of 3,685 studies, 35 met inclusion criteria. Regarding "Effects of the social structure" healthcare accessibility inequalities increased by socioeconomic levels, especially in unemployed, people with low educational levels and migrants. Regarding "Healthcare effect", the impact of the recession was observed in unmet needs, pharmaceutical spending containment, reduction of hospital beds, and privatization of services.

Conclusion

Austerity policies have contributed to increasing inequalities in the use of health services during the economic downturn. In the current economic climate, new management and health planning strategies such as hospitalisation at home, new models of integrated care and pharmaceutical management are needed to help achieve greater equity and equality in health.

Changes in Access to Health Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Scoping Review

The COVID-19 pandemic and the measures adopted are having a profound impact on a major goal of public healthcare systems: universal access to health services. The objective is to synthesize the available knowledge on access to health care for non-COVID-19 conditions and to identify knowledge gaps. A scoping review was conducted searching different databases (Medline, Google Scholar, etc.) for original articles published between December 2019 and September 2021. A total of 53 articles were selected and analyzed using the Aday and Andersen framework as a guide. Of these, 37 analyzed changes in levels of use of health services, 15 focused on the influencing factors and barriers to access, and 1 studied both aspects. Most focused on specific diseases and the early stages of the pandemic, based on a review of records. Analyses of the impact on primary care services' use, unmet needs or inequalities in access were scarce. A generalized reduction in the use of health services was described. The most frequent access barrier described for non-COVID-19 conditions related to the services was a lack of resources, while barriers related to the population were predisposing (fear of contagion, stigma, or anticipating barriers) and enabling characteristics (worse socioeconomic status and an increase in technological barriers). In conclusion, our results show a general reduction in services' use in the early stages of the pandemic, as well as new barriers to access and the exacerbation of existing ones. In view of these results, more studies are required on the subsequent stages of the pandemic, to shed more light on the factors that have influenced access and the pandemic's impact on equity of access.

Regional poverty and infection disease: early exploratory evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the role of regional poverty on the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. It also explores how the effects differ with the concentration of ethnic minorities. We find that poverty is a significant and consistent determinant of higher COVID-19 infections and fatalities. Prevalent poverty areas experienced higher infections due to economic structure that require hypermobility (high mobility and interpersonal interaction)-more physical human to human contact resulting in higher deaths from limited access to health services. These are also regions where minority groups are concentrated. Disproportionate infections and fatalities occurred within the black, Hispanic, and Asian population. Our evidence is robust to state fixed effects that capture local COVID-19 mitigation policies, multi-level hierarchical modeling, spatial autoregressive assessment, and large sets of county-level health, social, and economic factors. This paper contributes to the literature on health and economic disparities and their resulting consequences for infectious diseases.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets

This article aims to uncover the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy markets in terms of energy stock indexes, energy futures, ETFs, and implied volatility indexes. We model the volatility of energy markets and demonstrate the effects of various phases of the pandemic outbreak (COVID-19) on the energy market. COVID-19-induced uncertainty indicators like the growth of the infection, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and infectious diseases market volatility (IDsMV) have shown pronounced effects on energy markets’ historical volatility. The volatility of energy ETFs–stocks appears to be more resilient in line with S&P 500 energy stocks. WTI crude oil market has shown an unprecedented overreaction amid pandemic outbreaks and traded with an extreme volatility level. The investors’ sentiment in the energy market was factually higher on the tail events, indicating that fearful investors rushed toward put options and paid an excess premium to protect from unparalleled risk in the energy market.

Surveillance of COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons in the US South: The role of economic distress in the communities surrounding prison facilities

Introduction:

The US South is the epicenter of the epidemic of mass incarceration. Prisons have experienced substantial challenges in preventing COVID-19. Incarcerated individuals and prison staff are at a high risk for infection due to minimal available preventive measures. Prisons are not closed systems and many staff come from communities in close proximity to the facility. Characteristics of the communities immediately surrounding prisons are an overlooked but critical factor to better understand the role prisons play in pandemics.

Methods:

We used facility-level COVID-19 data from the COVID Prison Project to identify the number of unique outbreaks between May 2019 and May 2020. We used a county-level composite indicator of economic distress (DCI score) to identify the environment surrounding each prison (2015–2019). We modeled the number of outbreaks to DCI scores using negative binomial regression, adjusting for race/ethnicity (African American and Latino/Hispanic), age (65 and older), and rurality level.

Results:

Our sample included 570 prisons in 368 counties across 13 Southern states. We found that score was positively and significantly associated with prison COVID-19 outbreaks (aRR, 1.012; p < 0.0001), and rurality was potentially a stronger surrogate measure of economic distress (aRR, 1.35; p, 0.02). Economic stability is a key precursor to physical health. Poorer communities have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, and we found that prisons located in these communities were more susceptible to recurring outbreaks. Prison-based disease prevention interventions should consider the impact that the outside world has on the health of incarcerated individuals.

A data-driven approach to measuring epidemiological susceptibility risk around the world

Epidemic outbreaks are extreme events that become more frequent and severe, associated with large social and real costs. It is therefore important to assess whether countries are prepared to manage epidemiological risks. We use a fully data-driven approach to measure epidemiological susceptibility risk at the country level using time-varying information. We apply both principal component analysis (PCA) and dynamic factor model (DFM) to deal with the presence of strong cross-section dependence in the data. We conduct extensive in-sample model evaluations of 168 countries covering 17 indicators for the 2010-2019 period. The results show that the robust PCA method accounts for about 90% of total variability, whilst the DFM accounts for about 76% of the total variability. Our index could therefore provide the basis for developing risk assessments of epidemiological risk contagion. It could be also used by organizations to assess likely real consequences of epidemics with useful managerial implications.

A Lateral Flow Test for Staphylococcus aureus in Nasal Mucus Using a New DNAzyme as the Recognition Element

Detection of pathogenic bacteria in complex biological matrices remains a major challenge. Herein, we report the selection and optimization of a new DNAzyme for Staphylococcus aureus (SA) and the use of the DNAzyme to develop a simple lateral flow device (LFD) for detection of SA in nasal mucus. The DNAzyme was generated by in vitro selection using a crude extra/intracellular mixture derived from SA, which could be used directly for simple solution or paper-based fluorescence assays for SA. The DNAzyme was further modified to produce a DNA cleavage fragment that acted as a bridging element to bind DNA-modified gold nanoparticles to the test line of a LFD, producing a simple colorimetric dipstick test. The LFD was evaluated with nasal mucus samples spiked with SA, and demonstrated that SA detection was possible in minutes with minimal sample processing.

On the relation between Pandemic Disease Outbreak News and Crude oil, Gold, Gold mining, Silver and Energy Markets

Fear of the disease outbreak news (DONs) has shocked commodity markets and raised the likelihood of economic uncertainty and recession globally. This article examines the unprecedented overreaction of investors sentiments in the commodities such as Crude oil, Gold, Gold Mining, Silver, and the Energy sector. The deadly effects of DONs-COVID-19 in the commodities market have been the worst in history; it appeared the first time higher than the common stock's volatility. Covid-19 induced economic uncertainty has impacted severely through all commodities except the safe-haven Gold (GVZ). Importantly, ETF Options based Implied Volatility Index of Crude (OVX), Silver (VXSLV), and Energy (VXXLE) stocks have crossed the peak level what it was prevailing during the global financial crisis 2008. The unparalleled upsurge of the implied volatility index across all commodities indicates higher demand for the hedge funds to protects the commodity portfolio. ETF options on the commodity act as the best hedge against market uncertainty. Overburden on the put option results in an increased risk premium, henceforth higher expected volatility. ETF options truly measure the investor's fear of predominant in the commodity market.

The impact of economic recessions on health workers: a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis of the evidence from the last 50 years

Economic crises carry a substantial impact on population health and health systems, but little is known on how these transmit to health workers (HWs). Addressing such a gap is timely as HWs are pivotal resources, particularly during pandemics or the ensuing recessions. Drawing from the empirical literature, we aimed to provide a framework for understanding the impact of recessions on HWs and their reactions. We use a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis approach to identify the relevant qualitative, quantitative and mixed-methods evidence, and refine an a priori, theory-based conceptual framework. Eight relevant databases were searched, and four reviewers employed to independently review full texts, extract data and appraise the quality of the evidence retrieved. A total of 57 peer-reviewed publications were included, referring to six economic recessions. The 2010-15 Great Recession in Europe was the subject of most (52%) of the papers. Our consolidated framework suggests that recessions transmit to HWs through three channels: (1) an increase in the demand for services; (2) the impacts of austerity measures; and (3) changes in the health labour market. Some of the evidence appeared specific to the context of crises; demand for health services and employment increased during economic recessions in North America and Oceania, but stagnated or declined in Europe in connection with the austerity measures adopted. Burn-out, lay-offs, migration and multiple jobholding were the reactions observed in Europe, but job opportunities never dwindled for physicians during recessions in North America, with nurses re-entering labour markets during such crises. Loss of motivation, absenteeism and abuse of health systems were documented during recessions in low-income countries. Although the impacts of recessions may vary across economic events, health systems, labour markets and policy responses, our review and framework provide an evidence base for policies to mitigate the effects on HWs.

Impact of the Economic Crisis on Endocarditis Mortality in Spain: A Nationwide Study

Economic recession has dire consequences on overall health. None have explored the impact of economic crisis (EC) on infective endocarditis (IE) mortality. We conducted a retrospective, nationwide, temporal trend study analyzing mortality trends by age, sex, and adverse outcomes in patients diagnosed with IE in Spain from 1997 to 2014. Data were divided into two subperiods: pre-EC (January 1997-August 2008) and post-EC (September 2008-December 2014). A total of 25 952 patients presented with IE. The incidence increased from 301.4 to 365.1 per 10 000 000 habitants, and the mortality rate rose from 24.3% to 28.4%. Those aged >75 years experienced more adverse outcomes. Complications due to sepsis, shock, acute kidney injury requiring dialysis, and heart failure increased after the EC onset, and expenditures soared to €16 216. Expenditure per community was related to mortality (P < .001). The EC resulted as an independent predictor for mortality (hazard ratio 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.11). Incidence and mortality rate in patients with IE after the onset of the EC have increased as a result of rising adverse outcomes despite an overall increased investment.

How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.

State fragility and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: an ecologic analysis of data from 146 countries

BACKGROUND

Global spread and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are determined to a large extent, by resistance to the pandemic and public response of all countries in the world; while a country's resistance and response are in turn determined by its political and socio economic conditions. To inform future disease prevention and control, we analyzed global data to exam the relationship between state vulnerabilities and COVID-19 incidences and deaths.

METHODS

Vulnerability was measured using the Fragile States Index (FSI). FSI is created by the Fund for Peace to assess levels of fragility for individual countries. Total FSI score and scores for 12 specific indicators were used as the predictor variables. Outcome variables were national cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths up to September 16, 2020, derived from the World Health Organization. Cumulative incidence rates were computed using 2019 National population derived from the World Bank, and case fatality rates were computed as the ratio of deaths/COVID-19 cases. Countries with incomplete data were excluded, yielding a final sample of 146 countries. Multivariate regression was used to examine the association between the predictor and the outcome measures.

RESULTS

There were dramatic cross-country variations in both FSI and COVID-19 epidemiological measurements. FSI total scores were negatively associated with both COVID-19 cumulative incidence rates (β = -0.0135, P < 0.001) and case fatality rates (β = -0.0147, P < 0.05). Of the 12 FSI indicators, three negatively associated with COVID-19 incidences were E1(Economic Decline and Poverty), E3 (Human Flight and Brain Drain), and S2 (Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons); two positively associated were P1 (State Legitimacy) and X1 (External Intervention). With regard to association with case fatality rates, C1 (Security Apparatus) was positive, and P3 (Human Rights and Rule of Law) and X1 was negative.

CONCLUSION

With FSI measures by the Fund of Peace, overall, more fragile countries are less likely to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and even if affected, death rates were lower. However, poor in state legitimacy and lack of external intervention are risk for COVID-19 infection and lack of security apparatus is risky for COVID-19 death. Implications of the study findings are discussed and additional studies are needed to examine the mechanisms underpinning these relationships.

Did Economic Crisis Affect Mortality Due to Infectious Diseases? Trends of Infectious Diseases Mortality in Greece Before and After Economic Crisis

Introduction

Economic crisis and the restrictive policies applied in Greece and other countries raise questions about whether financial crises may affect the declining trend of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the economic crisis on mortality due to infectious diseases in Greece and its possible correlation with socio-economic variables affected by the crisis. 

Methods

Data including all deaths due to infectious diseases in Greece during 2001-2016 were analyzed. Annual total and cause-specific standardized death rates (SDR) and age-specific mortality rates were calculated. Cumulative SDRs and standardized rate ratios of the exposed and the non-exposed to austerity periods were computed. The correlation of mortality with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, long-term unemployment and hospital expenditure was explored.

Results

During the exposed-to-austerity period, the SDR of infectious diseases recorded a significant increase by 5% (2.4%-7.7%), exhibiting different trends in the various groups of diseases. The cause-specific SDR increased significantly in intestinal infections, viral diseases, pneumonia, and influenza, and declined in tuberculosis and meningitis. Overall mortality was positively correlated with GDP and unemployment, and adversely with hospital expenditure.

Conclusions

The mortality of infectious disease was adversely affected by economic crisis and austerity, but the effects were found disease-dependent, with significant differences between the various groups of infectious disease. Unemployment and hospital expenditure were the main socio-economic determinants of mortality. Causal mechanisms of the impact remain unclear, requiring further research.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in South Korea from 1983 to 2017

We aimed to describe the infectious disease (ID) mortality trends and evaluate age-period-cohort (APC) effects on ID mortality in Korea. Using cause-of-death and census population estimates data from 1983-2017, age-standardized ID mortality trends were investigated by joinpoint regression analysis. The APC effects on ID mortality were estimated using intrinsic estimator models. The age effect showed a J-shaped concave upward curve. Old age, especially ≥70 years, was a critical factor for ID deaths. Similar to the W-shaped period curve, ID mortality rapidly decreased due to economic development and the expansion of health coverage in the 1980s, decelerated with increasing inequality, surged due to the 1997 economic crisis, and has gradually increased since the mid-2000s. The cohort effect showed an inverted U-shape. The increasing cohort effect due to the deterioration of living standards led to a decreasing trend after the independence of Korea. Notwithstanding the slowdown during the 1950-1953 Korean War, educational expansion, economic growth, fertility reduction, and the improvement of ID-related policies might have led to a continued decline among the cohorts born since the 1960s. Diverse socioeconomic events may have influenced ID mortality trends in Korea via period and cohort effects. Policies to reduce the growing burden of ID deaths should be further improved.

A Review: Aedes-Borne Arboviral Infections, Controls and Wolbachia-Based Strategies

Arthropod-borne viruses (Arboviruses) continue to generate significant health and economic burdens for people living in endemic regions. Of these viruses, some of the most important (e.g., dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever virus), are transmitted mainly by Aedes mosquitoes. Over the years, viral infection control has targeted vector population reduction and inhibition of arboviral replication and transmission. This control includes the vector control methods which are classified into chemical, environmental, and biological methods. Some of these control methods may be largely experimental (both field and laboratory investigations) or widely practised. Perceptively, one of the biological methods of vector control, in particular, Wolbachia-based control, shows a promising control strategy for eradicating Aedes-borne arboviruses. This can either be through the artificial introduction of Wolbachia, a naturally present bacterium that impedes viral growth in mosquitoes into heterologous Aedes aegypti mosquito vectors (vectors that are not natural hosts of Wolbachia) thereby limiting arboviral transmission or via Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which naturally harbour Wolbachia infection. These strategies are potentially undermined by the tendency of mosquitoes to lose Wolbachia infection in unfavourable weather conditions (e.g., high temperature) and the inhibitory competitive dynamics among co-circulating Wolbachia strains. The main objective of this review was to critically appraise published articles on vector control strategies and specifically highlight the use of Wolbachia-based control to suppress vector population growth or disrupt viral transmission. We retrieved studies on the control strategies for arboviral transmissions via arthropod vectors and discussed the use of Wolbachia control strategies for eradicating arboviral diseases to identify literature gaps that will be instrumental in developing models to estimate the impact of these control strategies and, in essence, the use of different Wolbachia strains and features.

Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.

METHOD

Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.

RESULTS

On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.

Deterioration, drift, distraction, and denial: How the politics of austerity challenges the resilience of prison health governance and delivery in England

Extant scholarship has demonstrated that macroeconomic austerity disproportionately harms marginalised end-users. Its impact on the governance and delivery of health provisions on such individuals, however, has received less attention. Drawing on interviews with 27 policy elites involved with England's prison health policy, interviewees perceive that austerity policies have shaped and constrained the prison health system through the politics of deterioration, drift, distraction, and denial. The deterioration of the prison workforce size has been linked to diminished prisoner access to healthcare, attendant with an increased number of riots, assaults, acts of self-harm, and suicides. Concurrently, the microeconomic structure of organised crime is filling the void in prison governance, thus conducing to heightened abuse of psychoactive substances, as well as a surge in associated medical emergencies and violence. Successful prosecution of prior sexual offences, continued incarceration of those imprisoned for indeterminate sentences, and harsh sentencing practices have created policy drift, unremitting overcrowding, and reinforced excessive dependency on prison healthcare resources. The rapid turnover of justice ministers and intensified push for prison privatisation have enabled widespread distraction. Moreover, despite well-documented crises besetting English prisons, politicians seemingly remain in a state of denial. Preventive imprisonment, recurrent spending, and enhanced financial and political accountability measures are necessary to mitigate the effects of austerity and germane policies fomenting inimical impacts on England's prison health system.

How the 'plates' of a health system can shift, change and adjust during economic recessions: A qualitative interview study of public and private health providers in Brazil's São Paulo and Maranhão states

Background

Economic recessions carry an impact on population health and access to care; less is known on how health systems adapt to the conditions brought by a downturn. This particularly matters now that the COVID-19 epidemic is putting health systems under stress. Brazil is one of the world’s most affected countries, and its health system was already experiencing the aftermath of the 2015 recession.

Methods

Between 2018 and 2019 we conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with health practitioners, managers and policy-makers to explore the impact of the 2015 recession on public and private providers in prosperous (São Paulo) and impoverished (Maranhão) states in Brazil. Thematic analysis was employed to identify drivers and consequences of system adaptation and coping strategies. Nvivo software was used to aid data collection and analysis. We followed the Standards for Reporting Qualitative Research to provide an account of the findings.

Results

We found the concept of ‘health sector crisis’ to be politically charged among healthcare providers in São Paulo and Maranhão. Contrary to expectations, the public sector was reported to have found ways to compensate for diminishing federal funding, having outsourced services and adopted flexible–if insecure–working arrangements. Following a drop in employment and health plans, private health insurance companies have streamlined their offer, at times at the expenses of coverage. Low-cost walk-in clinics were hit hard by the recession, but were also credited for having moved to cater for higher-income customers in Maranhão.

Conclusions

The ‘plates’ of a health system may shift and adjust in unexpected ways in response to recessions, and some of these changes might outlast the crisis. As low-income countries enter post-COVID economic recessions, it will be important to monitor the adjustments taking place in health systems, to ensure that past gains in access to care and job security are not eroded.

Sexually Transmitted Infections and Associated Factors in Southeast Spain: A Retrospective Study from 2000 to 2014

The World Health Organization estimates that more than one million people acquire a Sexually Transmitted Infection (STI) every day, compromising quality of life, sexual and reproductive health, and the health of newborns and children. It is an objective of this study to identify the factors related to a Sexually Transmitted Infection diagnosis in the province of Granada (Spain), as well as those better predicting the risk of acquiring such infections. In this study, 678 cases were analyzed on a retrospective basis, which were treated at the Centre for Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Sexual Orientation in Granada, between 2000–2014. Descriptive statistics were applied, and by means of binary logistic regression, employing the forward stepwise-likelihood ratio, a predictive model was estimated for the risk of acquiring an STI. Sex, age, occupation, economic crisis period, drug use, number of days in which no condoms were used, number of sexual partners in the last month and in the last year, and number of subsequent visits and new subsequent episodes were associated with an STI diagnosis (p < 0.05). The risk of being diagnosed with an STI increased during the economic crisis period (OR: 1.88; 95%-CI: 1.28–2.76); during the economic crisis and if they were women (OR:2.35, 95%- CI: 1.24–4.44); and if they were women and immigrants (OR: 2.09; 95%- CI:1.22–3.57), while it decreased with age (OR: 0.97, 95%-CI: 0.95–0.98). Identification of the group comprised of immigrant women as an especially vulnerable group regarding the acquisition of an STI in our province reflects the need to incorporate the gender perspective into preventive strategies and STI primary health care.

Misalignment between coronavirus financial aid and public health policies: negative incentives for outpatient clinics in the United States

The United States Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) led to creation of the Paycheck Protection Program, as well as an expansion of reimbursements for telemedicine. CARES Act drafters over emphasized maintaining employment and overlooked negative downstream effects the policies had on outpatient clinics. The misalignment between this financial aid package and public health policy is most apparent in the pressure administrators face to maintain clinic operations, without a transition plan to adopt telemedicine and associated best practices. If this continues, the result will be suboptimal clinical practices and an increased risk of COVID-19 infection to both staff and patients. Particularly in times of crisis, financial aid packages should not be evaluated in isolation; policymakers should consider their implications for public health while designing, enacting, and implementing such measures.

Diagnostic Value of 18F-FDG-PET/CT in Patients with FUO

Conventional diagnostic imaging is often ineffective in revealing the underlying cause in a considerable proportion of patients with fever of unknown origin (FUO). The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic value of fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT) in patients with FUO. We retrospectively reviewed ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT scans performed on 50 consecutive adult patients referred to our department for further investigation of classic FUO. Final diagnosis was based on histopathological and microbiological findings, clinical criteria, or clinical follow-up. Final diagnosis was established in 39/50 (78%) of the patients. The cause of FUO was infection in 20/50 (40%), noninfectious inflammatory diseases in 11/50 (22%), and malignancy in 8/50 (16%) patients. Fever remained unexplained in 11/50 (22%) patients. ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT scan substantially contributed to the diagnosis in 70% of the patients, either by identifying the underlying cause of FUO or by directing to the most appropriate site for biopsy. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT for active disease detection in patients with FUO were 94.7%, 50.0%, 84.0%, 85.7%, and 75.0%, respectively. In conclusion, whole-body ¹⁸F-FDG-PET/CT is a highly sensitive method for detection of the underlining cause of FUO or for correctly targeting suspicious lesions for further evaluation.

An analysis of time trends for canine heartworm disease in Grenada and its associated risk factors based on veterinary clinical pathology laboratory data base records between 2003 and 2015

Canine heartworm (CHW) disease is a common parasitic infection in dogs in the Caribbean islands. However, studies on temporal trends and risk factors are limited for this region. This study represents the time trends in laboratory prevalence and risk factors of canine heartworm infections between 2003 and 2015. In this case series, 662 cases of laboratory-diagnosed heartworm were compared to 662 dogs without a laboratory diagnosis of heartworm (controls). One hundred and seventy two frozen serum positive samples were later analyzed for heartworm antigens using Heska solo® Step CH, and all 172 cases of microfilariae were confirmed as Dirofilaria immitis. Annual prevalence, linear trends and odds ratios (OR) for CHW were estimated using EPIINFO version 7 at a significance level of α = 0.05. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of CHW with variables showing a statistically significant univariate relationship. Laboratory prevalence of CHW decreased from 72 cases per 1000 dogs per year in 2003 to 15 cases per 1000 dogs per year in 2015 [X² for linear trend = 151.8, p < 0.0001], with the occurrence of an epidemic of CHW between 2008 and 2010. The odds of CHW were higher among adult dogs [(OR) = 3.9 (95% CI, 2.9-7.0)] and geriatric dogs [OR = 2.1 (95% CI, 1.1-4.3)] compared to puppies. The odds of CHW were higher [OR = 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.6)] among male dogs than female dogs, but the odds for CHW were lower among neutered dogs [OR = 0.4 (95% CI, 0.2 - 0.6)] compared to intact dogs. The odds of a dog being diagnosed with CHW were elevated [OR = 4.1 (95% CI, 3.2-5.2)] during the dry season compared to the rainy season. Our findings show that canine heartworm is extensive in laboratory submissions in Grenada. However, the laboratory prevalence of CHW decreased between 2003 and 2015, with an epidemic occurring between 2008 and 2010. Age of the dog, sex, neutered status, and seasonality of diagnosis were significantly associated CHW in Grenada.

Analysis of the Role of TpUB05 Antigen from Theileria parva in Immune Responses to Malaria in Humans Compared to Its Homologue in Plasmodium falciparum the UB05 Antigen

Despite the amount of resources deployed and the technological advancements in molecular biology, vaccinology, immunology, genetics, and biotechnology, there are still no effective vaccines against malaria. Immunity to malaria is usually seen to be species- and/or strain-specific. However, there is a growing body of evidence suggesting the possibility of the existence of cross-strain, cross-species, and cross-genus immune responses in apicomplexans. The principle of gene conservation indicates that homologues play a similar role in closely related organisms. The homologue of UB05 in Theileria parva is TpUB05 (XP_763711.1), which has been tested and shown to be associated with protective immunity in East Coast fever. In a bid to identify potent markers of protective immunity to aid malaria vaccine development, TpUB05 was tested in malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. It was observed that TpUB05 was better at detecting antigen-specific antibodies in plasma compared to UB05 when tested by ELISA. The total IgG raised against TpUB05 was able to block parasitic growth in vitro more effectively than that raised against UB05. However, there was no significant difference between the two study antigens in recalling peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) memory through IFN-γ production. This study suggests, for the first time, that TpUB05 from T. parva cross-reacts with UB05 from P. falciparum and is a marker of protective immunity in malaria. Hence, TpUB05 should be considered for possible development as a potential subunit vaccine candidate against malaria.

Economic Crisis and Sexually Transmitted Infections: A Comparison Between Native and Immigrant Populations in a Specialised Centre in Granada, Spain

This study aimed to analyse the influence of the economic crisis on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the immigrant population compared to the native population. A cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing 441 clinical records (329 Spanish nationals and 112 non-Spanish nationals) of individuals who, between 2000 and 2014, visited an STI clinic in Granada and tested positive for an infection. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed, and infection rates, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The mean age was 28.06 years (SD = 8.30; range = 16–70). During the period 2000–2014, the risk of being diagnosed with an STI was higher among non-Spanish nationals than among Spanish nationals (odds ratio (OR) = 5.33; 95% CI = 4.78–6.60). Differences between both populations were less marked during the crisis period (2008–2014: OR = 2.73; 95% CI = 2.32–3.73) than during the non-crisis period (2000–2007: OR = 12.02; 95% CI = 10.33–16.17). This may be due to underreporting of diagnoses in the immigrant population. Immigrants visiting the STI clinic in Granada are especially vulnerable to positive STI diagnoses compared to the native population.

Going upstream - an umbrella review of the macroeconomic determinants of health and health inequalities

BACKGROUND

The social determinants of health have been widely recognised yet there remains a lack of clarity regarding what constitute the macro-economic determinants of health and what can be done to address them. An umbrella review of systematic reviews was conducted to identify the evidence for the health and health inequalities impact of population level macroeconomic factors, strategies, policies and interventions.

METHODS

Nine databases were searched for systematic reviews meeting the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) criteria using a novel conceptual framework. Studies were assessed for quality using a standardised instrument and a narrative overview of the findings is presented.

RESULTS

The review found a large (n = 62) but low quality systematic review-level evidence base. The results indicated that action to promote employment and improve working conditions can help improve health and reduce gender-based health inequalities. Evidence suggests that market regulation of tobacco, alcohol and food is likely to be effective at improving health and reducing inequalities in health including strong taxation, or restriction of advertising and availability. Privatisation of utilities and alcohol sectors, income inequality, and economic crises are likely to increase health inequalities. Left of centre governments and welfare state generosity may have a positive health impact, but evidence on specific welfare interventions is mixed. Trade and trade policies were found to have a mixed effect. There were no systematic reviews of the health impact of monetary policy or of large economic institutions such as central banks and regulatory organisations.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study provide a simple yet comprehensive framework to support policy-makers and practitioners in addressing the macroeconomic determinants of health. Further research is needed in low and middle income countries and further reviews are needed to summarise evidence in key gaps identified by this review.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Protocol for umbrella review prospectively registered with PROSPERO CRD42017068357.

Impact of economic recessions on healthcare workers and their crises' responses: study protocol for a systematic review of the qualitative and quantitative evidence for the development of an evidence-based conceptual framework

INTRODUCTION

During economic recessions, health professionals face reduced income and labour opportunities, hard conditions often exacerbated by governments' policy responses to crises. Growing evidence points to non-negligible effects on national health workforces and health systems-decrease in motivation, burnout, migration-arising from the combination of crisis-related factors. However, no theoretical conceptualisation currently exists framing the impacts recessions have on human resources for health (HRH), or on their reactions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This paper lays out a protocol for a systematic review of the existing qualitative, quantitative and mixed-method evidence on the economic recessions and HRH; results from the review will be used to develop a conceptual framework linking existing theories on recessions, austerity measures, health systems and population health, with a view of informing future health policies. Eight relevant databases within the health, health systems, multidisciplinary and economic literature will be searched, complemented by secondary searches and experts' input. Eligible studies will present primary quantitative or qualitative evidence on HRH impacts, or original secondary analyses. We will cover the 1970-2019 period-the modern age of global economic recessions-and full texts in English, Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese or Greek. Two reviewers will independently assess, perform data extraction and conduct quality appraisal of the texts identified. A 'best-fit' framework synthesis will be applied to summarise the findings, using an a priori, theoretically driven framework. That preliminary framework was built by the research team to inform the searches, and will be appraised by external experts.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

In addition to peer-reviewed publications, the new framework will be presented in global health systems research conferences and inform regional policy dialogue workshops in Latin America on economic recessions and health systems.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019134165.

Sexually Transmitted Infections and Associated Factors in Homosexuals and Bisexuals in Granada (Spain) During the Period 2000-2015

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are a major public health issue. Previous research shows the vulnerability of the homosexual and bisexual population, as well as the influence of economic, political, and cultural determinants. The aim of this study was to describe the socio-demographic healthcare profile and the main risk factors associated with STIs in homosexuals and bisexuals seen at the STI clinic in Granada (Spain) during the years 2000–2015. Infection prevalences were compared between the economic crisis period (2008–2014) and the rest of the years analysed. A cross-sectional observational and analytical study was conducted by reviewing 261 clinical records of individuals with suspected or present infection. Univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses were performed. 91.2% of the individuals were men, and 8.8% were women, with the mean age being 28.61 (SD = 9.35, Range = 17–74) years old. The prevailing sexual orientation identity was homosexual. 94.2% were single. The main reason for consultation was HIV. Differences in prevalence were found between crisis and non-crisis years (OR = 3.91; 95% CI = 1.73–9.19). In conclusion, their profile was that of a young, single man suspecting possible HIV infection. STI prevalence was significantly higher in the years of economic recession in comparison to the rest of the years.

Fiscal austerity and the health sector: the cost of adjustments

Fiscal austerity policies have been used as responses to economic crises and fiscal deficits in both developed and developing countries. While they vary in regard to their content, intensity and implementation, such models recommend reducing public expenses and social investments, retracting the public service and substituting the private sector in lieu of the State to provide certain services tied to social policies. The present article discusses the main effects of the recent economic crisis on public health based on an updated review with consideration for three dimensions: health risks, epidemiological profiles of different populations, and health policies. In Brazil, the combination of economic crisis and fiscal austerity policies is capable of producing a direr situation than those experienced in developed countries. The country is characterized by historically high levels of social inequality, an under-financed health sector, highly prevalent chronic degenerative diseases and persisting preventable infectious diseases. It is imperative to develop alternatives to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis taking into consideration not only the sustainability of public finance but also public well-being.

Can economic indicators predict infectious disease spread? A cross-country panel analysis of 13 European countries

Aims: It is unclear how economic factors impact on the epidemiology of infectious disease. We evaluated the relationship between incidence of selected infectious diseases and economic factors, including economic downturn, in 13 European countries between 1970 and 2010. Methods: Data were obtained from national communicable disease surveillance centres. Negative binomial forms of the generalised additive model (GAM) and the generalised linear model were tested to see which best reflected transmission dynamics of: diphtheria, pertussis, measles, meningococcal disease, hepatitis B, gonorrhoea, syphilis, hepatitis A and salmonella. Economic indicators were gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc), unemployment rates and (economic) downturn. Results: GAM models produced the best goodness-of-fit results. The relationship between GDPpc and disease incidence was often non-linear. Strength and directions of association between population age, tertiary education levels, GDPpc and unemployment were disease dependent. Overdispersion for almost all diseases validated the assumption of a negative binomial relationship. Downturns were not independently linked to disease incidence. Conclusions: Social and economic factors can be correlated with many infections. However, the trend is not always in the same direction, and these associations are often non-linear. Economic downturn or recessions as indicators of increased disease risk may be better replaced by GDPpc or unemployment measures.

Austerity and the future of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS): health in perspective

This article proposes an analysis of the fiscal austerity measures of the Brazilian government and its unfolding in the public health system. It has examined the post-impeachment period of the president of Brazil and the changes of the social policies conduct in opposition to the principle of equity and universality in health with impacts on Brazilian sovereignty. It was a scientific essay on the perspective of the Unified Health System (SUS) and the policy development based on fiscal austerity that is taking place in the Brazilian political scenario, seeking to articulate a diagnosis of the impact of these actions on the structure of the country and the health rights. In this way, we conclude that the SUS is in imminent danger and that austerity policies in Brazil have denied the social gains achieved from previous governments, contributing to the discussion on health systems in the context of the neoliberal economic pressure and its impacts on lifestyles and access to the health services of the Brazilian people.

The Great Recession, financial strain and self-assessed health in Ireland

In this paper, we study the effects of the 2008 economic crisis on general health in one of the most severely affected EU economies-Ireland. We examine the relationship between compositional changes in demographic and socio-economic factors, such as education, income, and financial strain, and changes in the prevalence of poor self-assessed health over a 5-year period (2008-2013). We apply a generalised Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach for non-linear regression models proposed by Fairlie (1999, 2005). Results show that the increased financial strain explained the largest part of the increase in poor health in the Irish population and different sub-groups. Changes in the economic activity status and population structure also had a significant positive effect. The expansion of education had a significant negative effect, preventing further increases in poor health. Wealthier and better educated individuals experienced larger relative increases in poor health, which led to reduced socio-economic health inequalities.

Amenable mortality in the EU-has the crisis changed its course?

Background

Did the global financial crisis and its aftermath impact upon the performance of health systems in Europe? We investigated trends in amenable and other mortality in the EU since 2000 across 28 EU countries.

Methods

We use WHO detailed mortality files from 28 EU countries to calculate age-standardized deaths rates from amenable and other causes. We then use joinpoint regression to analyse trends in mortality before and after the onset of the economic crisis in Europe in 2008.

Results

Amenable and other mortality have declined in the EU since 2000, albeit faster for amenable mortality. We observed increases in amenable mortality following the global financial crisis for females in Estonia [from -4.53 annual percentage change (APC) in 2005-12 to 0.03 APC in 2012-14] and Slovenia (from -4.22 APC in 2000-13 to 0.73 in 2013-15) as well as males and females in Greece(males: from -2.93 APC in 2000-10 to 0.01 APC in 2010-13; females: from -3.48 APC in 2000-10 to 0.06 APC in 2010-13). Other mortality continued to decline for these populations. Increases in deaths from infectious diseases before and after the crisis played a substantial part in reversals in Estonia, Slovenia and Greece.

Conclusion

There is evidence that amenable mortality rose in Greece and, among females in Estonia and Slovenia. However, in most countries, trends in amenable mortality rates appeared to be unaffected by the crisis.