Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Investigating the Determinants of Mortality before CD4 Count Recovery in a Cohort of Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa Using a Fine and Gray Competing Risks Model

CD4 count recovery is the main goal for an HIV patient who initiated ART. Early ART initiation in HIV patients can help restore immune function more effectively, even when they have reached an advanced stage. Some patients may respond positively to ART and attain CD4 count recovery. Meanwhile, other patients failing to recover their CD4 count due to non-adherence, treatment resistance and virological failure might lead to HIV-related complications and death. The purpose of this study was to find the determinants of death in patients who failed to recover their CD4 count after initiating antiretroviral therapy. The data used in this study was obtained from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where 2528 HIV-infected patients with a baseline CD4 count of <200 cells/mm3 were initiated on ART. We used a Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard and cumulative incidence function to estimate potential confounding factors of death, where CD4 count recovery was a competing event for failure due to death. Patients who had no tuberculosis were 1.33 times at risk of dying before attaining CD4 count recovery [aSHR 1.33; 95% CI (0.96-1.85)] compared to those who had tuberculosis. Rural patients had a higher risk of not recovering and leading to death [aSHR 1.97; 95% CI (1.57-2.47)] than those from urban areas. The patient's tuberculosis status, viral load, regimen, baseline CD4 count, and location were significant contributors to death before CD4 count recovery. Intervention programs targeting HIV testing in rural areas for early ART initiation and promoting treatment adherence are recommended.

Evaluating tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Haiti from 2018 to 2019: A competing risk analysis

Objectives

This study assesses tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes in Haiti.

Methods

Data from drug-susceptible patients with TB (2018-2019) were analyzed using the Fine & Gray model with multiple imputation.

Results

Of the 16,545 patients, 14.7% had concurrent HIV coinfection, with a 66.2% success rate. The median treatment duration was 5 months, with patients averaging 30 years (with an interquartile range of 22-42 years). The estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome decreased by 2.5% and 8.1% for patients aged 45 and 60 years, respectively, compared with patients aged 30 years. Male patients had a 6.5% lower estimated hazard of success than their female counterparts. In addition, patients coinfected with HIV experienced a 35.3% reduction in the estimated hazard of achieving a successful treatment outcome compared with those with a negative HIV serologic status.

Conclusions

Integrated health care approaches should be implemented, incorporating innovative solutions, such as machine learning algorithms combined with geographic information systems and non-conventional data sources (including social media), to identify TB hotspots and high-burden households.

Predictors of loss to follow up among adults on antiretroviral therapy before and after the start of treat-all strategy in public health facilities of Hawassa city, Ethiopia: A Competing risk regression

BACKGROUND

Treat-all strategies improved patient outcomes, despite higher rates of loss to follow-up compared to the pre-treat era. Patients in Ethiopia experienced a higher rate of LTFU during the treat-all strategy period; however, studies did not identify contributing factors in comparison with previous strategies. This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up before and after the start of the treat-all strategy among adults on anti-retroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 1190 randomly selected adults on antiretroviral therapy in public health facilities in Hawassa City. Using the Open Data Kit (ODK), data were collected from medical records and exported to Stata version 16 and R 4.2.1 for analysis. A Grays test and cumulative incidence curve were used to compare the cumulative incidence function of loss to follow-up. Bivariable and multivariable competing risk regression were fitted to identify predictors of LTFU and variables with a p-value <0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of lost-to-follow-up was 4.92(3.84,6.3) and 8.67(7.26,10.3) per 100 person-years (PY) in pre-treat all and treat all cohorts, respectively. The cumulative incidence of mortality was 5.86(4.67,7.35) and 3(2.26,4.12) per 100 PY in pre-treat and treat all cohorts, respectively. Fair/poor adherence (aSHR:5.17; (95% CI 1.97, 13.51), underweight (aSHR:2.13; 95% CI: 1.15-3.93) and WHO stage III/IV (aSHR:2.69; 95% CI: 1.27, 5.71) were predictors of loss up in pre-treat all, whereas fair/poor adherence (aSHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.68), underweight (aSHR:1.71; 95% CI: 1.13, 2.56), and CD4 cell >350 cell/m3 (aSHR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.65) predicts of loss up in treat all cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that the incidence of loss to follow-up was considerably higher in the treat-all period as compared to the pre-treat-all era. Poor medication compliance, underweight, and a CD4 level >350 cells/m3 contributed to the higher rate of LTFU in the treat-all strategy. Targeted interventions, such as nutritional support and strengthening medication adherence counseling, should be implemented to maintain treatment retention and reduce antiretroviral therapy dropout rates.

How soon should patients be eligible for differentiated service delivery models for antiretroviral treatment? Evidence from a retrospective cohort study in Zambia

OBJECTIVES

Patient attrition is high the first 6 months after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Patients with <6 months of ART are systematically excluded from most differentiated service delivery (DSD) models, which are intended to support retention. Despite DSD eligibility criteria requiring ≥6 months on ART, some patients enrol earlier. We compared loss to follow-up (LTFU) between patients enrolling in DSD models early with those enrolled according to guidelines, assessing whether the ART experience eligibility criterion is necessary.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic medical record data.

SETTING

PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥15 years) who initiated ART between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2020.

OUTCOMES

LTFU (>30 days late for scheduled visit) at 18 months for 'early enrollers' (DSD enrolment after <6 months on ART) and 'established enrollers' (DSD enrolment after ≥6 months on ART). We used a log-binomial model to compare LTFU risk, adjusting for age, sex, location, ART refill interval and DSD model.

RESULTS

For 6340 early enrollers and 25 857 established enrollers, there were no differences in sex (61% female), age (median 37 years) or location (65% urban). ART refill intervals were longer for established versus early enrollers (72% vs 55% were given 4-6 months refills). LTFU at 18 months was 3% (192 of 6340) for early enrollers and 5% (24 646 of 25 857) for established enrollers. Early enrollers were 41% less likely to be LTFU than established patients (adjusted risk ratio 0.59, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients enrolled in DSD after <6 months of ART were more likely to be retained than patients established on ART prior to DSD enrolment. A limitation is that early enrollers may have been selected for DSD due to providers' and patients' expectations about future retention. Offering DSD models to ART patients soon after ART initiation may help address high attrition during the early treatment period.

TRIAL REGISTERATION NUMBER

NCT04158882.

Incidence and factors associated with being lost to follow-up among people living with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy in Nyarugenge the central business district of Kigali city, Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Lost to follow-up (LTFUP) continues to threaten the sustainability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) benefits and success of ART programs. We determined the incidence and predictors of LTFUP among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART in Nyarugenge the Central Business District of Kigali city.

METHODS

A cohort of PLHIV who initiated ART in 2018 was retrospectively studied for 24 months. Using health facility records, a person who had no record of contact with the health facility for at least three consecutive months was considered LTFUP. LTFUP incidence rates were computed, and the Fine-Gray's competing risk regression models were used to determine factors associated with time to first LTFUP. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to analyze repeated measurement outcomes of LTFUP and predictors of LTFUP.

RESULTS

Of 950 participants, 581 (61.2%) were females and 866 (91.2%) were 15 to 49 years old. From 1,586.1 person years of observation (pyo), 148 participants got LTFUP for 451 times. The incidence rate to first event was 9.4 per 100 pyo (95%CI:7.9-10.9) and 31.8 per 100 pyo (95%CI:29.0-34.4) to multiple events. WHO stage, marital status, employment status and person to contact when PLHIV is not reachable were associated with time to first LTFUP event. However, an average participant with a contact person who was not a Community Health Worker (CHW) or a peer educator had higher incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 2.69, 95%CI: 1.43-5.06), an average single patients had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.74, 95%CI: 1.28-2.34) compared to married/co-habiting, and an average self-employed had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.14-2.01) compared to participants employed by others. Furthermore, an average PLHIV living out-of-the health facility catchment area had higher incidence of LTFUP (aIRR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.19-2.01) compared to an average PLHIV living in the health facility catchment area whereas, an average children initiated on first line had lower incidence of LTUP (aIRR = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.21-0.86) compared to adults.

CONCLUSION

Using CHW and peer educators as contact persons can help to reduce LTFUP while, targeted sensitization and service delivery are needed for single, self-employed and, patients living out of the health facility catchment area.

A semiparametric method for the analysis of outcomes during a gap in HIV care under incomplete outcome ascertainment

Objectives

Estimation of the cascade of HIV care is essential for evaluating care and treatment programs, informing policy makers and assessing targets such as 90-90-90. A challenge to estimating the cascade based on electronic health record concerns patients "churning" in and out of care. Correctly estimating this dynamic phenomenon in resource-limited settings, such as those found in sub-Saharan Africa, is challenging because of the significant death under-reporting. An approach to partially recover information on the unobserved deaths is a double-sampling design, where a small subset of individuals with a missed clinic visit is intensively outreached in the community to actively ascertain their vital status. This approach has been adopted in several programs within the East Africa regional IeDEA consortium, the context of our motivating study. The objective of this paper is to propose a semiparametric method for the analysis of competing risks data with incomplete outcome ascertainment.

Methods

Based on data from double-sampling designs, we propose a semiparametric inverse probability weighted estimator of key outcomes during a gap in care, which are crucial pieces of the care cascade puzzle.

Results

Simulation studies suggest that the proposed estimators provide valid estimates in settings with incomplete outcome ascertainment under a set of realistic assumptions. These studies also illustrate that a naïve complete-case analysis can provide seriously biased estimates. The methodology is applied to electronic health record data from the East Africa IeDEA Consortium to estimate death and return to care during a gap in care.

Conclusions

The proposed methodology provides a robust approach for valid inferences about return to care and death during a gap in care, in settings with death under-reporting. Ultimately, the resulting estimates will have significant consequences on program construction, resource allocation, policy and decision making at the highest levels.

Competing risk of mortality on loss to follow-up outcome among patients with HIV on ART: a retrospective cohort study from the Zimbabwe national ART programme

OBJECTIVE

To determine the loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates at different healthcare levels after antiretroviral therapy (ART) services decentralisation among ART patients who initiated ART between 2004 and 2017 using the competing risk model in addition to the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regressions analysis.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was done in Zimbabwe using a nationwide routinely collected HIV patient-level data from various health levels of care facilities compiled through the electronic patient management system (ePMS).

PARTICIPANTS

We analysed 390 771 participants aged 15 years and above from 538 health facilities.

OUTCOMES

The primary endpoint was LTFU defined as a failure of a patient to report for drug refill for at least 90 days from last appointment date or if the patient missed the next scheduled visit date and never showed up again. Mortality was considered a secondary outcome if a patient was reported to have died.

RESULTS

The total exposure time contributed was 1 544 468 person-years. LTFU rate was 5.75 (95% CI 5.71 to 5.78) per 100 person-years. Adjustment for the competing event independently increased LTFU rate ratio in provincial and referral (adjusted sub-HRs (AsHR) 1.22; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.26) and district and mission (AsHR 1.47; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.50) hospitals (reference: primary healthcare); in urban sites (AsHR 1.61; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.63) (reference: rural); and among adolescence and young adults (15-24 years) group (AsHR 1.19; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.21) (reference: 35-44 years). We also detected overwhelming association between LTFU and tuberculosis-infected patients (AsHR 1.53; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.62) (reference: no tuberculosis).

CONCLUSIONS

We have observed considerable findings that 'leakages' (LTFU) within the ART treatment cascade persist even after the decentralisation of health services. Risk factors for LTFU reflect those found in sub-Saharan African studies. Interventions that retain patients in care by minimising any 'leakages' along the treatment cascade are essential in attaining the 90-90-90 UNAIDS fast-track targets.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates from antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are high, leading to poor treatment outcomes and onward transmission of HIV. Knowledge of risk factors is required to address LTFU. In this systematic review, risk factors for LTFU are identified and meta-analyses performed.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Psycinfo and Cochrane were searched for studies that report on potential risk factors for LTFU in adults who initiated ART in LMICs. Meta-analysis was performed for risk factors evaluated by at least five studies. Pooled effect estimates and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using random effect models with inverse variance weights. Risk of bias was assessed and sensitivity analyses performed.

RESULTS

Eighty studies were included describing a total of 1 605 320 patients of which 87.4% from sub-Saharan Africa. The following determinants were significantly associated with an increased risk of LTFU in meta-analysis: male sex, older age, being single, unemployment, lower educational status, advanced WHO stage, low weight, worse functional status, poor adherence, nondisclosure, not receiving cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy when indicated, receiving care at secondary level and more recent year of initiation. No association was seen for CD4 cell count, tuberculosis at baseline, regimen, and geographical setting.

CONCLUSION

There are several sociodemographic, clinical, patient behaviour, treatment-related and system level risk factors for LTFU from ART programs. Knowledge of risk factors should be used to better target retention interventions and develop tools to identify high-risk patients.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up in human immunodeficiency virus care in the Greater Accra Regional Hospital in Ghana: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Loss of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to follow-up increases HIV-related morbidity and mortality. This study identified the factors associated with loss to follow-up (LTFU) in an urban health facility in Ghana.

METHODS

A 12-y retrospective study was conducted using routinely collected data from the National Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Control Programme (NACP) on persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 2006 to 2017 at the Greater Accra Regional Hospital. Convenience sampling was used to select the study area. All gathered data were exported to Stata 14 statistical software for analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4330 PLWHA initiated ART between January 2006 and December 2017. Of these, 1166 (26.9%) were lost to follow-up over the 12-y period. The factors associated with LTFU included being a Muslim (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.31 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.05 to 1.65]), having CD4 <250 cells/ml (aHR 1.45 [95% CI 1.21 to 1.76]) and completing adherence counselling (aHR 1.58 [95% CI 1.31 to 1.92]). Having other sources of health care funding and disclosure of one's disease status were found to be protective (aHR 0.74 [95% CI 0.58 to 0.94] and 0.80 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.98], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Some of the determinants of LTFU in the hospital are comparable to those found in other parts of Africa and could be addressed using existing interventions.

HIV Disease Progression Among Antiretroviral Therapy Patients in Zimbabwe: A Multistate Markov Model

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) impact has prolonged survival of people living with HIV. We evaluated HIV disease progression among ART patients using routinely collected patient-level data between 2004 and 2017 in Zimbabwe. Methods: We partitioned HIV disease progression into four transient CD4 cell counts states: state 1 (CD4 ≥ 500 cells/μl), state 2 (350 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 500 cells/μl), state 3 (200 cells/μl ≤ CD4 < 350 cells/μl), state 4 (CD4 < 200 cells/μl), and the absorbing state death (state 5). We proposed a semiparametric time-homogenous multistate Markov model to estimate bidirectional transition rates. Covariate effects (age, gender, ART initiation period, and health facility level) on the transition rates were assessed. Results: We analyzed 204,289 clinic visits by 63,422 patients. There were 24,325 (38.4%) patients in state 4 (CD4 < 200) at ART initiation, and 7,995 (12.6%) deaths occurred by December 2017. The overall mortality rate was 3.9 per 100 person-years. The highest mortality rate of 5.7 per 100 person-years (4,541 deaths) was from state 4 (CD4 < 200) compared to other states. Mortality rates decreased with increase in time since ART initiation. Health facility type was the strongest predictor for immune recovery. Provincial or central hospital patients showed a diminishing dose-response effect on immune recovery by state from a hazard ratio (HR) of 8.30 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 6.64-10.36] (state 4 to 3) to HR of 3.12 (95% CI, 2.54-4.36) (state 2 to 1) compared to primary healthcare facilities. Immune system for male patients was more likely to deteriorate, and they had a 32% increased mortality risk (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23-1.42) compared to female patients. Elderly patients (45+ years) were more likely to immune deteriorate compared to 25-34 years age group: HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.18-1.54; HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.34-1.81 and HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.32-1.79 for states 1 to 2, state 2 to 3, and states 3 to 4, respectively. Conclusion: Immune recovery was pronounced among provincial or central hospitals. Male patients with lower CD4 cell counts were at a higher risk of immune deterioration and mortality, while elderly patients were more likely to immune deteriorate. Early therapeutic interventions when the immune system is relatively stable across gender and age may contain mortality and increase survival outcomes. Interventions which strengthen ART services in primary healthcare facilities are essential.

Outcomes of Patients Lost to Follow-up in African Antiretroviral Therapy Programs: Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background

Low retention on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has emerged as a threat to the Joint United Nations Programme on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets. We examined outcomes of patients who started cART but were subsequently lost to follow-up (LTFU) in African treatment programs.

Methods

This was a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of studies that traced patients who were LTFU. Outcomes were analyzed using cumulative incidence functions and proportional hazards models for the competing risks of (i) death, (ii) alive but stopped cART, (iii) silent transfer to other clinics, and (iv) retention on cART.

Results

Nine studies contributed data on 7377 patients who started cART and were subsequently LTFU in sub-Saharan Africa. The median CD4 count at the start of cART was 129 cells/μL. At 4 years after the last clinic visit, 21.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.8%-22.7%) were known to have died, 22.6% (95% CI, 21.6%-23.6%) were alive but had stopped cART, 14.8% (95% CI, 14.0%-15.6%) had transferred to another clinic, 9.2% (95% CI, 8.5%-9.8%) were retained on cART, and 31.6% (95% CI, 30.6%-32.7%) could not been found. Mortality was associated with male sex, more advanced disease, and shorter cART duration; stopping cART with less advanced disease andlonger cART duration; and silent transfer with female sex and less advanced disease.

Conclusions

Mortality in patients LTFU must be considered for unbiased assessments of program outcomes and UNAIDS targets in sub-Saharan Africa. Immediate start of cART and early tracing of patients LTFU should be priorities.

Loss to follow-up and associated factors of patients in the National AIDS Program in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a crucial indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of HIV care and treatment programmes. We assessed the LTFU rate and associated factors of Thai HIV-infected patients who enrolled in the National AIDS Program (NAP) for two periods: prior to (pre-ART) and after starting ART (ART-patients).

METHODS

Thai HIV patients aged ≥15 years enrolled in NAP from 2008 to 2014. Vital status was ascertained by linkage with the National Death Registry. Competing risk models were used to calculate the adjusted sub-distribution hazards (aSHR) for LTFU for pre-ART and ART-patients, with death considered as a competing risk.

RESULTS

A total of 157,026 patients registered in care and were included in analyses. The cumulative incidence of LTFU in pre-ART patients at 1 year was 10.2%, whereas in ART-patients it was 12.8%. Among pre-ART patients, younger age (<30 versus ≥45 years, aSHR 1.60, 95% CI 1.49, 1.72), less advanced HIV stage (aSHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.21, 1.37) and higher CD4⁺ T-cell count (≥350 versus <100, aSHR 6.31, 95% CI 5.74, 6.95) had a higher chance of LTFU. ART-patients with high baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count (CD4 ≥350 versus CD4 <50, aSHR 2.06, 95% CI 1.97, 2.15) and non-advanced HIV stage had increased risk of LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new evidence of the LTFU rate in Thai HIV-infected patients in NAP. Emphasis needs to be placed on improving follow-up in all patients with higher CD4⁺ T-cell counts. LTFU will be important to monitor as programmes move to commence ART regardless of CD4⁺ T-cell count.

Facilitators and Barriers to Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy and Retention in Care Among Adolescents Living with HIV/AIDS in Zambia: A Mixed Methods Study

Little is known about the factors that contribute to the losses during stages of the HIV continuum of care (CoC) and specifically during the latter stages of antiretroviral (ART) adherence and retention in HIV care among adolescents living with HIV/AIDS (ALHA) in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a mixed-methods study: six focus group discussions with 43 ALHA (age 17-19); in-depth interviews with four (age 18-19): and survey-based interviews with 330 ALHA (age 18-19) to identify, understand, and describe factors contributing to the losses in the latter stages of the CoC among ALHA in Zambia. Through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews, ALHA identified barriers at the intrapersonal level (e.g., poverty; lack of adequate nutrition; fear of stigma), interpersonal level (e.g., stigma; disrespectful treatment by providers), institutional/facility level (e.g., lack of adolescent specific services), and community level (e.g., lack of collaboration among organizations; social norms). In quantitative interviews, we found that 46% (101/220) of ALHA reported missing any clinic appointments in the past three months, and about 19% (41/221) reporting missing one or more doses of ART in the last week. Logistic regressions indicate that walking to the site of appointment and being currently employed were predictive of missed visits. Findings highlight the complexity of the multiple factors that are unique to ALHA in Zambia, which should be addressed to improve adherence to ART and retention in HIV.

Treatment outcomes among children, adolescents, and adults on treatment for tuberculosis in two metropolitan municipalities in Gauteng Province, South Africa

Background

Gauteng Province has the second lowest tuberculosis (TB) incidence rate in South Africa but the greatest proportion of TB/HIV co-infection, with 68% of TB patients estimated to have HIV. TB treatment outcomes are well documented at the national and provincial level; however, knowledge gaps remain on how outcomes differ across detailed age groups.

Methods

Using data from South Africa’s National Electronic TB Register (ETR), we assessed all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating treatment for TB between 01/2010 and 12/2015 in the metropolitan municipalities of Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality and the City of Johannesburg in Gauteng Province. We excluded patients who were missing age, had known drug-resistance, or transferred into TB care from sites outside the two metropolitan municipalities. Among patients assigned a treatment outcome, we investigated the association between age group at treatment initiation and mortality or LTFU (treatment interruption of ≥2 months) within 10 months after treatment initiation using Cox proportional hazard models and present hazard ratios and Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Results

We identified 182,890 children (<10 years), young adolescent (10–14), older adolescent (15–19), young adult (20–24), adult (25–49), and older adult (≥50) TB cases without known drug-resistance. ART coverage among HIV co-infected patients was highest for young adolescents (64.3%) and lowest for young adults (54.0%) compared to other age groups (all over 60%). Treatment success exceeded 80% in all age groups (n = 170,017). All-cause mortality increased with age. Compared to adults, young adults had an increased hazard of LTFU (20–24 vs 25–49 years; aHR 1.43 95% CI: 1.33, 1.54) while children, young adolescents, and older adults had lower hazard of LTFU. Patients with HIV on ART had a lower risk of LTFU, but greater risk of death when compared to patients without HIV.

Conclusions

Young adults in urban areas of Gauteng Province experience a disproportionate burden of LTFU and low coverage of ART among co-infected patients. This group should be targeted for interventions aimed at improving clinical outcomes and retention in both TB and HIV care.

Are there differences in HIV retention in care between female and male patients in Indonesia? A multi-state analysis of a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about HIV treatment outcomes in Indonesia, which has one of the most rapidly growing HIV epidemics worldwide.

METHODS

We examined possible differences in loss to follow-up (LTFU) and survival between HIV-infected females and males over a 7-year period in an HIV clinic in Bandung, West Java. Data imputation was performed on missing covariates and a multi-state Cox regression was used to investigate the effects of sex and other covariates on patient transitions among four states: (1) clinic enrollment with HIV, (2) initiation/continuation/re-initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART), (3) LTFU, and (4) death.

RESULTS

We followed 3215 patients (33% females), for a total of 8430 person-years. ART was used by 59% of patients at some point. One-year retention was 73% for females and 77% for males (p = 0.06). One-year survival was 98% for both females and males (p = 0.15). Females experienced a higher relative hazard to transition from HIV to LTFU (adjusted hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.45), but this decreased after adjustments for clinical variables (aHR 0.94; 95% CI 0.79-1.11). Similarly, a lower relative hazard in females to transition from ART to death (aHR 0.59; 95% CI 0.35-0.99) decreased after adjustments for demographic variables.

CONCLUSION

This Indonesian cohort has low ART uptake and poor overall pre- and post-ART retention. Female-male differences in survival and retention were gone after adjusting for clinical and sociodemographic factors such as CD4 count and education level. Efforts should be made to improve retention among patients with lower education.

Retention and mortality on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: collaborative analyses of HIV treatment programmes

Introduction

By 2020, 90% of all people diagnosed with HIV should receive long‐term combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In sub‐Saharan Africa, this target is threatened by loss to follow‐up in ART programmes. The proportion of people retained on ART long‐term cannot be easily determined, because individuals classified as lost to follow‐up, may have self‐transferred to another HIV treatment programme, or may have died. We describe retention on ART in sub‐Saharan Africa, first based on observed data as recorded in the clinic databases, and second adjusted for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers.

Methods

We analysed data from HIV‐infected adults and children initiating ART between 2009 and 2014 at a sub‐Saharan African HIV treatment programme participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA). We used the Kaplan–Meier method to calculate the cumulative incidence of retention on ART and the Aalen–Johansen method to calculate the cumulative incidences of death, loss to follow‐up, and stopping ART. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust clinic data for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer, based on estimates from a recent systematic review and meta‐analysis.

Results

We included 505,634 patients: 12,848 (2.5%) from Central Africa, 109,233 (21.6%) from East Africa, 347,343 (68.7%) from Southern Africa and 36,210 (7.2%) from West Africa. In crude analyses of observed clinic data, 52.1% of patients were retained on ART, 41.8% were lost to follow‐up and 6.0% had died 5 years after ART initiation. After accounting for undocumented deaths and self‐transfers, we estimated that 66.6% of patients were retained on ART, 18.8% had stopped ART and 14.7% had died at 5 years.

Conclusions

Improving long‐term retention on ART will be crucial to attaining the 90% on ART target. Naïve analyses of HIV cohort studies, which do not account for undocumented mortality and self‐transfer of patients, may severely underestimate both mortality and retention on ART.

Attrition among HIV positive children enrolled under integrated HIV care programme in Myanmar: 12 years cohort analysis

Background: In Myanmar, HIV seropositive children are being enrolled in an integrated HIV care (IHC) Program for HIV treatment and care since 2005.

Objectives: To assess the: (a) attrition (death or loss-to-follow-up) rates among children (aged ≥ 18 months to < 15 years) enrolled into the programme before and after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) (pre-ART and ART periods); (b) demographic and clinical factors associated with attrition during these two periods.

Methods: Children enrolled in IHC Programme and their status (death, lost to follow-up, regular follow-up or transferred out) was assessed as on 30 June 2017. Attrition rates (per 100 person-years) at pre – ART and ART periods were calculated and the association between demographic and clinical characteristics with attrition was assessed using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results: Among 2,736 children enrolled, pre-ART attrition rate was 19 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 17–21) and ART attrition rate was 4 per 100 person-years of follow-up (95% CI: 3–4) with higher levels during the initial few months of enrolment. The 36-month retention rates during pre-ART period was 75% (95% CI: 72–78) and during ART period was 87% (95% CI: 86–88). The children ‘at enrolment’ with relatively lower levels of haemoglobin, immune deficiency, underweight for age, higher WHO clinical stages, presence of hepatitis B infection had higher hazards of attrition in both periods.

Conclusion: The attrition rates are high particularly among children with relatively poorer clinical, nutritional profiles at enrolment. The study suggests the urgent need for improving adherence counselling especially during the initial few months of enrolment and early ART initiation.

Incidence and predictors of LTFU among adults with TB/HIV co-infection in two governmental hospitals, Mekelle, Ethiopia, 2009-2016: survival model approach

Background

Lost to follow-up (LTFU) negatively affects the treatment success of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) and thus, increases Tuberculosis-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (TB/HIV) related morbidity, mortality and hospitalization. However, the incidence and predictors of loss to follow up (LTFU) among adults with TB/HIV co-infection have not yet well-investigated in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed at investigating the incidence and predictors of LTFU in the study setting in particular.

Methods

A facility based retrospective cohort study was employed among 305 (114 anemic and 191 normal) TB/HIV co-infected adults in two governmental hospitals (Mekelle Hospital and Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital), Mekelle, Ethiopia from 2009 to 2016 and data were collected using checklist. Besides to descriptive statistics, a cox regression analysis was applied to identify statistically significant predictors of LTFU at 5% level of significance. Eventually, the Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were estimated and interpreted for predictors of LTFU in the final cox model.

Results

Generally, 45 of 305 (14.8%) of TB/HIV co-infected adults were LTFU with an incidence rate of 4.5 new LTFUs per 100 Person Years (PYs) and a median follow up time of 3.1 years (Interquartile Range (IQR): 0.8–5.3 Years). Hemoglobin level ≤ 11.0 g/dl (AHR = 2.660; 95%CI: 1.459–4.848), and any history of OI/s (AHR = 3.795; 95%CI: 1.165–12.364) were risk factors of LTFU. While, adverse drug events (AHR = 0.451; 95%CI: 0.216–0.941), TB treatment completion (AHR = 0.121; 95% CI: 0.057–0.254), and being on Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) (AHR = 0.085; 95%CI: 0.012–0.628) had protective effect against LTFU.

Conclusions

One in approximately seven TB/HIV co-infected adults had experienced of LTFU with an incidence rate 4.5 LTFUs per 100 PYs. The LTFU rate was higher among adults with low baseline hemoglobin level, no adverse drug events, presence of OI/s, failure to complete TB treatment, and being not on IPT. Therefore, it is advisable to treat anemia and active TB, and preventing the occurrence of OIs including TB using IPT to reduce the incidence of LTFU among TB/HIV co-infected adults.

Reasons and predictors for antiretroviral therapy change among HIV-infected adults at South West Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

This retrospective cohort study is aimed to assess reasons and predictors of regimen change from initial highly active antiretroviral therapy among 1533 Human Immunodeficiency virus-infected adult patients at the Jimma University Tertiary Hospital.

RESULTS

One in two (47.7%) adults changed their antiretroviral therapy regimen. Patients who were above the primary level of education [Hazard ratio (HR) 1.241 (95% CI 1.070-1.440)] and with human immunodeficiency virus/tuberculosis co-infection [HR 1.405 (95% CI 1.156-1.708)] had the higher risk of regimen change than their comparator. Individuals on Efavirenz [HR 0.675 (95% CI 0.553-0.825)] and non-stavudine [HR 0.494 (95% CI 0.406-0.601)] based regimens had lower risk of regimen change.

Cascade of care among HIV patients diagnosed in 2013 in Georgia: Risk factors for late diagnosis and attrition from HIV care

INTRODUCTION

The major challenge in the HIV epidemic in Georgia is a high proportion of undiagnosed people living with HIV (estimated 48%) as well as a very high proportion of late presentations for care, with 66% presenting for HIV care with CD4 count <350 and 40% with <200 cells/mm3, in 2013. The objectives of this study was to evaluate patient engagement in the continuum of HIV care for HIV patients diagnosed in 2013 and, within this cohort, to evaluate factors associated with late diagnosis and attrition from care.

METHODS

Factors associated with late diagnosis were analyzed through binary logistic regression. Exposure variables were the mode of HIV transmission (injecting drug use, male-to-male contact, and heterosexual contact), gender (male vs female), and age (categorized by median value ≤36 vs >36). In addition, CD4 count at diagnosis (cells/mm3) (≤350 or >350) together with all above factors were tested for the association with attrition through Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 317 patients retained in care, representing 65% of those diagnosed (n = 488). Out of eligible 295 patients, 89.5% were on treatment and 84% of those viral load count was measured after 6 months of antiretroviral treatment initiation had HIV-1 viral load <1000 copies/mL. Patients reporting injecting drug use as a route-of HIV transmission had two times the odds (95% confidence interval = 1.34-3.49) to be diagnosed late and patients reporting male-to-male contact as a way of HIV transmission had half the odds (odds ratio = 0.46 (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.81)) of late diagnosis compared to patients acquiring HIV through heterosexual contact. Patients older than 36 years were more likely to being diagnosed late.

CONCLUSION

More attention should be given to injecting drug users as they represent the most at-risk population for late diagnosis together with older age and attrition.

Attrition and Mortality of Children Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment through the Universal Coverage Health Program in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess mortality and loss to follow-up of children with HIV infection who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) through the Universal Coverage Health Program (UC) in Thailand.

STUDY DESIGN

Children with HIV infection who initiated ART at age <15 years through the UC between 2008 and 2013 were included in the analysis. Death was ascertained through linkage with the National Death Registry. A competing-risks method was used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of predictors for loss to follow-up. Death was considered a competing risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 4618 children from 497 hospitals in Thailand were included in the study. Median age at ART initiation was 9 years (IQR, 6-12 years), and the median duration of tracking was 4.1 years (a total of 18 817 person-years). Three hundred and ninety-five children (9%) died, for a mortality rate of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.3) per 100 person-years, and 525 children (11%) were lost to follow-up, for a lost to follow-up rate of 2.9 (95% CI, 2.7-3.2) per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up increased from 4% at 1 year to 8.8% at 3 years. Children who started ART at age ≥12 years were at the greatest risk of loss to follow-up. The probability of death was 3.2% at 6 months and 6.4% at 3 years. Age ≥12 years at ART initiation, lower baseline CD4%, advanced HIV staging, and loss to follow-up were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

The Thai national HIV treatment program has been very effective in treating children with HIV infection, with low mortality and modest rates of loss to follow-up.

Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes Among HIV/TB-Coinfected Children in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Network

INTRODUCTION

Management of tuberculosis (TB) is challenging in HIV/TB-coinfected children. The World Health Organization recommends nucleic acid amplification tests for TB diagnosis, a 4-drug regimen including ethambutol during intensive phase (IP) of treatment, and initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis. We investigated TB treatment outcomes by diagnostic modality, IP regimen, and ART status.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among HIV/TB-coinfected children enrolled at the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS treatment sites from 2012 to 2014. We modeled TB outcome using multivariable logistic regression including diagnostic modality, IP regimen, and ART status.

RESULTS

Among the 386 HIV-infected children diagnosed with TB, 20% had microbiologic confirmation of TB, and 20% had unfavorable TB outcomes. During IP, 78% were treated with a 4-drug regimen. Thirty-one percent were receiving ART at the time of TB diagnosis, and 32% were started on ART within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis. Incidence of ART initiation within 8 weeks of TB diagnosis was higher for those with favorable TB outcomes (64%) compared with those with unfavorable outcomes (40%) (P = 0.04). Neither diagnostic modality (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 3.65) nor IP regimen (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 1.80) was associated with TB outcome.

DISCUSSION

In this multinational study of HIV/TB-coinfected children, many were not managed as per World Health Organization guidelines. Children with favorable TB outcomes initiated ART sooner than children with unfavorable outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of early ART for children with HIV/TB coinfection, and reinforce the need for implementation research to improve pediatric TB management.

Prevalence, trend and risk factors for antiretroviral therapy discontinuation among HIV-infected adults in Ethiopia in 2003-2015

BACKGROUND

It is well acknowledged that antiretroviral therapy (ART) discontinuation hampers the progress towards achieving the UNAIDS treatment targets that aim to treat 90% of HIV diagnosed patients and achieve viral suppression for 90% of those on treatment. Nevertheless, the magnitude, trend and risk factors for ART discontinuation have not been explored extensively. We carried out a retrospective data analysis to assess prevalence, trend and risk factors for ART discontinuation among adults in Southwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

12 years retrospective cohort analysis was performed with 4900 HIV-infected adult patients between 21 June 2003 and 15 March 2015 registered at the ART clinic at Jimma University Teaching Hospital. ART discontinuation could be loss to follow-up, defaulting and/or stopping medication while remaining in care. Because data for 2003 and 2015 were incomplete, the 10 years data were used to describe trends for ART discontinuation using a line graph. We used binary logistic regression to identify factors that were correlated with ART discontinuation. To handle missing data, we applied multiple imputations assuming missing at random pattern.

RESULTS

In total, 4900 adult patients enrolled on ART, of whom 1090 (22.3%) had discontinued, 954 (19.5%) had transferred out, 300 (6.1%) had died, 2517 (51.4%) were alive and on ART, and the remaining 39 (0.8%) had unknown outcome status. The trend of ART discontinuation showed an upward direction in the recent times and reached a peak, accounting for a magnitude of 10%, in 2004 and 2005. Being a female (AOR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.7-2.8), having an immunological failure (AOR = 2.3, 1.9-8.2), having tuberculosis/HIV co-infection (AOR = 1.5, 1.1-2.1) and no previous history of HIV testing (AOR = 1.8, 1.4-2.9) were the risk factors for ART discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

One out of five adults had discontinued from ART, and the trend of ART discontinuation increased recently. Discontinued adults were more likely to be females, tuberculosis/HIV co-infected, with immunological failure and no history of HIV testing. Therefore, it is vital to implement effective programs such as community ART distribution and linkage-case-management to enhance ART linkage and retention.

Social determinants of health and retention in HIV care in a clinical cohort in Ontario, Canada

Continuous HIV care supports antiretroviral therapy initiation and adherence, and prolongs survival. We investigated the association of social determinants of health (SDH) and subsequent retention in HIV care in a clinical cohort in Ontario, Canada. The Ontario HIV Treatment Network Cohort Study is a multi-site cohort of patients at 10 HIV clinics. Data were collected from medical charts, interviews, and via record linkage with the provincial public health laboratory for viral load tests. For participants interviewed in 2009, we used three-category multinomial logistic regression to identify predictors of retention in 2010-2012, defined as (1) continuous care (≥2 viral loads ≥90 days in all years; reference category); (2) discontinuous care (only 1 viral load/year in ≥1 year); and (3) a gap in care (≥1 year in 2010-2012 with no viral load). In total, 1838 participants were included. In 2010-2012, 71.7% had continuous care, 20.9% had discontinuous care, and 7.5% had a gap in care. Discontinuous care in 2009 was predictive (p < .0001) of future retention. SDH associated with discontinuous care were Indigenous ethnicity, being born in Canada, being employed, reporting hazardous drinking, and non-injection drug use. Being a heterosexual male was associated with having a gap in care, and being single and younger were associated with discontinuous care and a gap in care. Various SDH were associated with retention. Care discontinuity was highly predictive of future gaps. Targeted strategic interventions that better engage those at risk of suboptimal retention merit exploration.

ABBREVIATIONS

AOR: adjusted odds ratio; ART: antiretroviral therapy; AUDIT: Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test; CES-D: Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; CIs: confidence intervals; HIV: human immunodeficiency virus; IQR: interquartile range; MSM: men who have sex with men; NA-ACCORD: North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design; OCS: Ontario HIV Treatment Network Cohort Study; OHTN: Ontario HIV Treatment Network; OR: odds ratio; PHOL: Public Health Ontario Laboratories; REB: Research Ethics Board; SDH: social determinants of health; US: United States.

Marked sex differences in all-cause mortality on antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

While women and girls are disproportionately at risk of HIV acquisition, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), globally men and women comprise similar proportions of people living with HIV who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy. However, men represent only approximately 41% of those receiving antiretroviral therapy globally. There has been limited study of men’s outcomes in treatment programmes, despite data suggesting that men living with HIV and engaged in treatment programmes have higher mortality rates. This systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) aims to assess differential all-cause mortality between men and women living with HIV and on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC.

Methods

A SR was conducted through searching PubMed, Ovid Global Health and EMBASE for peer-reviewed, published observational studies reporting differential outcomes by sex of adults (≥15 years) living with HIV, in treatment programmes and on antiretroviral medications in LMIC. For studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality by sex, quality assessment using Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (cohort studies) and an MA using a random-effects model (Stata 14.0) were conducted.

Results

A total of 11,889 records were screened, and 6726 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. There were 31 included studies in the final MA reporting 42 HRs, with a total sample size of 86,233 men and 117,719 women, and total time on antiretroviral therapy of 1555 months. The pooled hazard ratio (pHR) showed a 46% increased hazard of death for men while on antiretroviral treatment (1.35–1.59). Increased hazard was significant across geographic regions (sub-Saharan Africa: pHR 1.41 (1.28–1.56); Asia: 1.77 (1.42–2.21)) and persisted over time on treatment (≤12 months: 1.42 (1.21–1.67); 13–35 months: 1.48 (1.23–1.78); 36–59 months: 1.50 (1.18–1.91); 61 to 108 months: 1.49 (1.29–1.71)).

Conclusions

Men living with HIV have consistently and significantly greater hazards of all-cause mortality compared with women while on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC. This effect persists over time on treatment. The clinical and population-level prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy will only be realized if programmes can improve male engagement, diagnosis, earlier initiation of therapy, clinical outcomes and can support long-term adherence and retention.

A Decade of Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-up in Mozambique: Evaluation of Outcome Trends and New Models of Service Delivery Among More Than 300,000 Patients Enrolled During 2004-2013

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2013 in Mozambique, 455,600 HIV-positive adults (≥15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). We evaluated trends in patient characteristics and outcomes during 2004-2013, outcomes of universal treatment for pregnant women (Option B+) implemented since 2013, and effect on outcomes of distributing ART to stable patients through Community ART Support Groups (CASG) since 2010.

METHODS

Data for 306,335 adults starting ART during 2004-2013 at 170 ART facilities were analyzed. Mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) were estimated using competing risks models. Outcome determinants were estimated using proportional hazards models, including CASG participation as a time-varying covariate.

RESULTS

Compared with ART enrollees in 2004, enrollees in 2013 were more commonly female (55% vs. 73%), more commonly pregnant if female (<1% vs. 30%), and had a higher median baseline CD4 count (139 vs. 235/μL). During 2004-2013, observed 6-month mortality declined from 7% to 2% but LTFU increased from 24% to 30%. Pregnant women starting ART with CD4 count >350/μL and WHO stage I/II under Option B+ guidelines in 2013 had low 6-month mortality (0.1%) but high 6-month LTFU (38%). During 2010-2013, 6766 patients joined CASGs. In multivariable analysis, compared with nonparticipation in CASG, CASG participation was associated with 35% lower LTFU but similar mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Initiation of ART at earlier disease stages in later calendar years might explain observed declines in mortality. Retention interventions are needed to address trends of increasing LTFU overall and the high LTFU among Option B+ pregnant women specifically. Further expansion of CASG could help reduce LTFU.

The Effect of Timing of Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy on Loss to Follow-up in HIV-Tuberculosis Coinfected Patients in South Africa: An Open-Label, Randomized, Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of early integrated, late-integrated, and delayed antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during tuberculosis (TB) treatment on the incidence rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) and to evaluate the effect of ART initiation on LTFU rates within trial arms in patients coinfected with TB and HIV.

METHODS

A substudy within a 3-armed, open label, randomized, controlled trial. Patients were randomized to initiate ART either early or late during TB treatment or after the TB treatment completion. We reported the incidence and predictors of LTFU from TB treatment initiation during the 24 months of follow-up. LTFU was defined as having missed 4 consecutive monthly visits with the inability to make contact.

RESULTS

Of the 642 patients randomized, a total of 96 (15.0%) were LTFU at a median of 6.0 [interquartile range (IQR), 1.1-11.3] months after TB treatment initiation. Incidence rates of LTFU were 7.5 per 100 person-years (PY) [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.9 to 11], 10.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 7.6 to 15.1), and 11.0 per 100 PY (95% CI: 7.6 to 15.4) in the early integrated, late-integrated, and delayed treatment arms (P = 0.313). Incidence rate of LTFU before and after ART initiation was 31.7 per 100 PY (95% CI: 11.6 to 69.0) vs. 6.1 per 100 PY (95% CI: 3.7 to 9.4); incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 5.2 (95% CI: 2.1 to 13.0; P < 0.001) in the early integrated arm; 31.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 20.4 to 47.5) vs. 4.7 per 10 PY (95% CI: 2.4 to 8.2) and IRR was 6.8 (95% CI: 3.4 to 13.6; P < 0.0001) in the late-integrated arm; and 21.9 per 100 PY (95% CI: 14.6 to 31.5) vs. 2.8 per 100 PY (95% CI: 0.9 to 6.6) and IRR was 7.7 (95% CI: 3.0 to 19.9; P < 0.0001) in the sequential arm.

CONCLUSION

LTFU rates were not significantly different between the 3 trials arms. However, ART initiation within each trial arm resulted in a significant reduction in LTFU rates among TB patients.

Retention in Care among HIV-Infected Adults in Ethiopia, 2005- 2011: A Mixed-Methods Study

Background

Poor retention in HIV care challenges the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study assessed how well patients stay in care and explored factors associated with retention in the context of an initial ART rollout in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We conducted a mixed-methods study at a teaching hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A cohort of 385 patients was followed for a median of 4.6 years from ART initiation to lost-to-follow-up (LTFU—missing appointments for more than three months after last scheduled visit or administrative censoring). We used Kaplan-Meier plots to describe LTFU over time and Cox-regression models to identify factors associated with being LTFU. We held six focus group discussions, each with 6–11 patients enrolled in care; we analyzed data inductively informed by grounded theory.

Results

Patients in the cohort were predominantly female (64%) and the median age was 34 years. Thirty percent were LTFU by study’s end; the median time to LTFU was 1,675 days. Higher risk of LTFU was associated with baseline CD4 counts <100 and >200 cells/μL (HR = 1.62; 95% CI:1.03–2.55; and HR = 2.06; 95% CI:1.15–3.70, respectively), compared with patients with baseline CD4 counts of 100–200 cells/μL. Bedridden participants at ART initiation (HR = 2.05; 95% CIs [1.11–3.80]) and those with no or only primary education (HR = 1.50; 95% CIs [1.00–2.24]) were more likely to be LTFU. Our qualitative data revealed that fear of stigma, care dissatisfaction, use of holy water, and economic constraints discouraged retention in care. Social support and restored health and functional ability motivated retention.

Conclusion

Complex socio-cultural, economic, and health-system factors inhibit optimum patient retention. Better tracking, enhanced social support, and regular adherence counseling addressing stigma and alternative healing options are needed. Intervention strategies aimed at changing clinic routines and improving patient–provider communication could address many of the identified barriers.

Improved long-term antiretroviral treatment outcomes amongst patients receiving community-based adherence support in South Africa

Retaining high levels of patients in care who are virally suppressed over long treatment periods has been an important challenge for antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa, the region having the highest HIV burden globally. Clinic-linked community-based adherence support (CBAS) programmes provide home-based adherence and psychosocial support for ART patients. However, there is little evidence of their longer-term impact. This study assessed the effectiveness of CBAS after eight years of ART. CBAS workers are lay healthcare personnel providing regular adherence and psychosocial support for ART patients and their households through home visits addressing household challenges affecting adherence. A multicentre cohort study using routinely collected data was undertaken at six public ART sites in a high HIV-prevalence South African district. Patient retention, loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression and CD4 cell restoration were compared between patients with and without CBAS, using competing-risks regression, linear mixed models and log-binomial regression. 3861 patients were included, of whom 1616 (41.9%) received CBAS. Over 14,792 patient-years of observation, the cumulative incidence of LTFU was 37.3% and 46.2% amongst patients with and without CBAS, respectively, following 8 years of ART; adjusted subhazard ratio (CBAS vs. no CBAS) = 0.74 (95% CI: 0.66-0.84; P < .0001). Amongst patients on ART for 6.5-8 years, proportions not achieving viral suppression were 11.4% and 19.4% in patients with and without CBAS, respectively; adjusted risk ratio = 0.47 (95% CI: 0.26-0.86; P = .015). Annual CD4 cell increases from baseline were 62.8 cells/µL/year and 51.5 cells/µL/year amongst patients with and without CBAS, respectively, after 6.5 years or more (P = .034). After adjustment, annual CD4 cell recovery was 15.1 cells/µL/year (95% CI: 2.7-27.6) greater in CBAS patients (P = .017). ART patients who received CBAS had improved long-term patient retention, viral suppression and immunological restoration. CBAS is an intervention that can improve longer-term ART programme outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Clinical and Virologic Outcomes After Changes in First Antiretroviral Regimen at 7 Sites in the Caribbean, Central and South America Network

BACKGROUND

HIV-infected persons in resource-limited settings may experience high rates of antiretroviral therapy (ART) change, particularly because of toxicity or other nonfailure reasons. Few reports address patient outcomes after these modifications.

METHODS

HIV-infected adults from the 7 Caribbean, Central and South America network clinical cohorts who modified >1 drug from the first ART regimen (ART-1) for any reason thereby starting a second regimen (ART-2) were included. We assessed cumulative incidence of, and factors associated with, death, virologic failure (VF), and regimen change after starting ART-2.

RESULTS

Five thousand five hundred sixty-five ART-naive highly active ART initiators started ART-2 after a median of 9.8 months on ART-1; 39% changed to ART-2 because of toxicity and 11% because of failure. Median follow-up after starting ART-2 was 2.9 years; 45% subsequently modified ART-2. Cumulative incidences of death at 1, 3, and 5 years after starting ART-2 were 5.1%, 8.4%, and 10.5%, respectively. In adjusted analyses, death was associated with older age, clinical AIDS, lower CD4 at ART-2 start, earlier calendar year, and starting ART-2 because of toxicity (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.5 vs. failure, 95% confidence interval: 1.0 to 2.1). Cumulative incidences of VF after 1, 3, and 5 years were 9%, 19%, and 25%. In adjusted analyses, VF was associated with younger age, earlier calendar year, lower CD4 at the start of ART-2, and starting ART-2 because of failure (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.1 vs. toxicity, 95% confidence interval: 1.5 to 2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients modifying the first ART regimen, risks of subsequent modifications, mortality, and virologic failure were high. Access to improved antiretrovirals in the region is needed to improve initial treatment success.

Survival functions for defining a clinical management Lost To Follow-Up (LTFU) cut-off in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) program in Zomba, Malawi

BACKGROUND

While, lost to follow-up (LTFU) from antiretroviral therapy (ART) can be considered a catch-all category for patients who miss scheduled visits or medication pick-ups, operational definitions and methods for defining LTFU vary making comparisons across programs challenging. Using weekly cut-offs, we sought to determine the probability that an individual would return to clinic given that they had not yet returned in order to identify the LTFU cut-off that could be used to inform clinical management and tracing procedures.

METHODS

Individuals who initiated ART with Dignitas International supported sites (n = 22) in Zomba, Malawi between January 1 2007-June 30 2010 and were ≥ 1 week late for a follow-up visit were included. Lateness was categorized using weekly cut-offs from ≥1 to ≥26 weeks late. At each weekly cut-off, the proportion of patients who returned for a subsequent follow-up visit were identified. Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) were plotted to determine the probability of returning as a function of lateness. Hazard functions were plotted to demonstrate the proportion of patients who returned each weekly interval relative to those who had yet to return.

RESULTS

In total, n = 4484 patients with n = 7316 follow-up visits were included. The number of included follow-up visits per patient ranged from 1-10 (median: 1). Both the CDF and hazard function demonstrated that after being ≥9 weeks late, the proportion of new patients who returned relative to those who had yet to return decreased substantially.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a LTFU definition useful for clinical management. The simple functions plotted here did not require advanced statistical expertise and were created using Microsoft Excel, making it a particularly practical method for HIV programs in resource-constrained settings.

Pitfalls of practicing cancer epidemiology in resource-limited settings: the case of survival and loss to follow-up after a diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma in five countries across sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data.

Methods

We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009–2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure.

Results

Nominally, 22 % of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45 % cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, age <30 years and male sex were independently associated with becoming lost.

Conclusions

In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Factors of Loss to Follow-up Among HIV-Positive Pediatric Patients in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors for loss to follow-up (LTFU) in an HIV-infected pediatric population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, between 2004 and 2011.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analysis of 6236 HIV-infected children.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 6236 pediatric patients enrolled in care and treatment in Dar es Salaam from October 2004 to September 2011. LTFU was defined as missing a clinic visit for >90 days for patients on ART and for >180 days for patients in care and monitoring. The relationship of baseline and time-varying characteristics to the risk of LTFU was examined using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 2130 children (34%) were LTFU over a median follow-up of 16.7 months (interquartile range, 3.4-36.9). Factors independently associated with a higher risk of LTFU were age ≤2 years (relative risk [RR] = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.40 to 1.80), diarrhea at enrollment (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.41), a low mid-upper arm circumference for age (RR = 1.20, CI: 1.05 to 1.37), eating protein-rich foods ≤3 times a week (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.90), taking cotrimoxazole (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.81), initiating onto antiretrovirals (RR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.61), receiving treatment at a hospital instead of a local facility (RR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.41), and starting treatment in 2006 or later (RR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.16).

CONCLUSIONS

Health workers should be aware of pediatric patients who are at a greatest risk of LTFU, such as younger and undernourished patients, so that they can proactively counsel families about the importance of visit adherence. Findings support decentralization of HIV care to local facilities as opposed to hospitals.

Effect of Community Support Agents on Retention of People Living With HIV in Pre-antiretroviral Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Eastern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Over 50% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa are lost to follow-up between diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral treatment during pre-antiretroviral (pre-ARV) care. The effect of providing home counseling visits by community support agents on 2-year retention in pre-ARV care was evaluated through a randomized controlled trial in eastern Uganda.

METHODS

Four hundred newly screened HIV-positive patients were randomly assigned to receive posttest counseling alone (routine arm) or posttest counseling and monthly home counseling visits by community support agents to encourage them go back for routine pre-ARV care (intervention arm). The outcome measure was the proportion of new PLHIV in either arm who attended their scheduled pre-ARV care visits for at least 6 of the anticipated 8 visits in the first 24 months after HIV diagnosis. The difference between the 2 study arms was assessed using the χ and T tests. Mantel-Haenszel Risk Ratios and multivariate logistic models were used to assess the adjusted effect of the intervention on the outcome.

RESULTS

In all models generated, participants receiving monthly home counseling visits were 2.5 times more likely to be retained in pre-ARV compared with those in standard care over a period of 24 months (adjusted risk ratio, 2.5; 95% confidence interval: 2.0 to 3.0).

CONCLUSION

Monthly follow-up home visits by community workers more than doubled the retention of PLHIV in pre-ARV care in rural Uganda and can be applicable in similar resource-poor settings.

Temporal Trends in Patient Characteristics and Outcomes Among Children Enrolled in Mozambique's National Antiretroviral Therapy Program

BACKGROUND

During 2004-2009, >12,000 children (<15 years old) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mozambique. Nationally representative outcomes and temporal trends in outcomes were investigated.

METHODS

Rates of death, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and attrition (death or LTFU) were evaluated in a nationally representative sample of 1054 children, who initiated ART during 2004-2009 at 25 facilities randomly selected using probability-proportional-to-size sampling.

RESULTS

At ART initiation during 2004-2009, 50% were male; median age was 3.3 years; median CD4% was 13%; median CD4 count was 375 cells/μL; median weight-for-age Z score was -2.1. During 2004-2009, median time from HIV diagnosis to care initiation declined from 33 to 0 days (P = 0.001); median time from care to ART declined from 93 to 62 days (P = 0.004); the percentage aged <2 at ART initiation increased from 16% to 48% (P = 0.021); the percentage of patients with prior tuberculosis declined from 50% to 10% (P = 0.009); and the percentage with prior lymphocytic interstitial pneumonia declined from 16% to 1% (P < 0.001). Over 2652 person-years of ART, 183 children became LTFU and 26 died. Twelve-month attrition was 11% overall but increased from 3% to 22% during 2004-2009, mainly because of increases in 12-month LTFU (from 3% to 18%).

CONCLUSION

Declines in the prevalence of markers of advanced HIV disease at ART initiation probably reflect increasing ART access. However, 12-month LTFU increased during program expansion, and this negated any program improvements in outcomes that might have resulted from earlier ART initiation.

Retention of Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis 2008-2013

BACKGROUND

We previously published systematic reviews of retention in care after antiretroviral therapy initiation among general adult populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated 36-month retention at 73% for publications from 2007 to 2010. This report extends the review to cover 2008-2013 and expands it to all low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013, and abstracts from AIDS and IAS from 2008-2013. We estimated retention across cohorts using simple averages and interpolated missing times through the last time reported. We estimated all-cause attrition (death, loss to follow-up) for patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy in routine settings in low- and middle-income countries.

RESULTS

We found 123 articles and abstracts reporting retention for 154 patient cohorts and 1,554,773 patients in 42 countries. Overall, 43% of all patients not retained were known to have died. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 78%, 71%, and 69% at 12, 24, and 36 months, after treatment initiation, respectively. We estimated 36-month retention at 65% in Africa, 80% in Asia, and 64% in Latin America and the Caribbean. From lifetable analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months at 83%, 74%, 68%, 64%, and 60%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Retention at 36 months on treatment averages 65%-70%. There are several important gaps in the evidence base, which could be filled by further research, especially in terms of geographic coverage and duration of follow-up.

Pregnant women with HIV in rural Nigeria have higher rates of antiretroviral treatment initiation, but similar loss to follow-up as non-pregnant women and men

BACKGROUND

We examined antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and retention by sex and pregnancy status in rural Nigeria.

METHODS

We studied HIV-infected ART-naïve patients aged ≥15 years entering care from June 2009 to September 2013. We calculated the probability of early ART initiation and cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTFU) during the first year of ART, and examined the association between LTFU and sex/pregnancy using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The cohort included 3813 ART-naïve HIV-infected adults (2594 women [68.0%], 273 [11.8%] of them pregnant). The proportion of pregnant clients initiating ART within 90 days of enrollment (78.0%, 213/273) was higher than among non-pregnant women (54.3%,1261/2321) or men (53.0%, 650/1219), both p<0.001. Pregnant women initiated ART sooner than non-pregnant women and men (median [IQR] days from enrollment to ART initiation for pregnant women=7 days [0-21] vs 14 days [7-49] for non-pregnant women and 14 days [7-42] for men; p<0.001). Cumulative incidence of LTFU during the first year post-ART initiation was high and did not differ by sex and pregnancy status. Persons who were unemployed, bedridden, had higher CD4+ counts, and/or in earlier WHO clinical stages were more likely to be LTFU.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women with HIV in rural Nigeria were more likely to initiate ART but were no more likely to be retained in care. Our findings underscore the importance of effective retention strategies across all patient groups, regardless of sex and pregnancy status.

Outcomes of antiretroviral therapy over a 10-year period of expansion: a multicohort analysis of African and Asian HIV programs

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the evolution of program outcomes associated with rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We describe temporal trends and assess associations with mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV cohorts from 8 countries.

DESIGN

Multicohort study using electronic health records.

METHODS

Analysis included adults in 25 Médecins Sans Frontières-supported programs initiating ART between 2001 and 2011. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe time to death or LTFU and proportional hazards models to assess associations with individual and program factors.

RESULTS

ART programs (n = 132,334, median age 35 years, 61% female) expanded rapidly. Whereas 36-month mortality decreased from 22% to 9% over 5 years (≤2003-2008), LTFU increased from 11% to 21%. Hazard ratios (HR) of early (0-12 months) and late (12-72 months) LTFU increased over time, from 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83 to 1.43] and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.84 to 1.28) in 2004 to 3.29 (95% CI: 2.42 to 4.46) and 6.86 (95% CI: 4.94 to 9.53) in 2011, compared with 2001-2003. Rate of program expansion was strongly associated with increased early and late LTFU, adjusted HR (aHR) = 2.31 (95% CI: 1.78 to 3.01) and HR = 2.29 (95% CI: 1.76 to 2.99), respectively, for ≥125 vs. 0-24 patients per month. Larger program size was associated with decreased early mortality (aHR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.77 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients) and increased early LTFU (aHR = 1.77, 95% CI: 1.04 to 3.04 for ≥20,000 vs. <500 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

As ART expands in resource-limited settings, challenges remain in improving access to ART and preventing program attrition. There is an urgent need for novel and sustainable models of care to increase long-term retention of patients.

Predictors of Loss to follow-up in Patients Living with HIV/AIDS after Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background:

Long-term regular follow up of ART is an important component of HIV care. Patients who are lost to follow-up (LTFU) while on treatment compromise their own health and the long-term success of ART programs.

Aim:

This study was aimed at determining the incidence and risk factors for LTFU in HIV patients on ART at ART clinic of Mizan-Aman General Hospital, Ethiopia.

Materials and Methods:

A retrospective cohort study of 2133 people living with HIV/AIDS and attending an ART clinic between 2005 and 2013 was undertaken. LTFU was defined as not taking an ART refill for a period of 3 months or longer from the last attendance for refill and not yet classified as ‘dead’ or ‘transferred-out’. The log-rank test was used to measure differences in time to LTFU between groups and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to measure predictors of LTFU.

Results:

Of 2133 patients, 53.9% were female. The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 31.5 (8.0), 16 (2.2), and 3.8 (3.0) years for adults, adolescents, and children, respectively. Around 574 (26.7%) patients were defined as LTFU. The cumulative incidence of LTFU was 8.8 (95% CIs 8.1-9.6) per 1000 person months. Patients with regimen substitution (HR 5.2; 95% CIs 3.6-7.3), non-isoniazid (INH) prophylaxis (HR 3.7; 95% CIs 2.3-6.2), adolescent (HR 2.1; 95% CIs 1.3-3.4), and had a baseline CD₄ count < 200 cells/mm³ (HR 1.7, 95% CIs 1.3-2.2) were at higher risk of LTFU. WHO clinical stage III (HR 0.6; 95% CIs 0.4-0.9) and IV (HR 0.8; 95% CIs 0.6-1.0) patients at entry were less likely to be LTFU than clinical stage I patients. There was no significant difference in risk of LTFU in males and females.

Conclusion:

Overall, these data suggested that LTFU in this study was high. Patients phase of life, drug related factors, and clinical stages were associated with LTFU in this study. Effective control measures in the at-risk population need to be implemented to improve retention.

Observational research on NCDs in HIV-positive populations: conceptual and methodological considerations

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) account for a growing burden of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy interact with NCD risk factors in complex ways, and research into this "web of causation" has so far been largely based on data from high-income countries. However, improving the understanding, treatment, and prevention of NCDs in LMICs requires region-specific evidence. Priority research areas include: (1) defining the burden of NCDs among people living with HIV, (2) understanding the impact of modifiable risk factors, (3) evaluating effective and efficient care strategies at individual and health systems levels, and (4) evaluating cost-effective prevention strategies. Meeting these needs will require observational data, both to inform the design of randomized trials and to replace trials that would be unethical or infeasible. Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, we discuss data resources currently available to inform this effort and consider key limitations and methodological challenges. Existing data resources often lack population-based samples; HIV-negative, HIV-positive, and antiretroviral therapy-naive comparison groups; and measurements of key NCD risk factors and outcomes. Other challenges include loss to follow-up, competing risk of death, incomplete outcome ascertainment and measurement of factors affecting clinical decision making, and the need to control for (time-dependent) confounding. We review these challenges and discuss strategies for overcoming them through augmented data collection and appropriate analysis. We conclude with recommendations to improve the quality of data and analyses available to inform the response to HIV and NCD comorbidity in LMICs.

Antiretroviral treatment outcomes amongst older adults in a large multicentre cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Increasing numbers of patients are starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) at advanced age or reaching advanced age while on ART. We compared baseline characteristics and ART outcomes of older adults (aged ≥55 years) vs. younger adults (aged 25-54 years) in routine care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study of ART-naïve adults starting ART at 89 public sector facilities was conducted. Mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), immunological and virological outcomes until five years of ART were compared using competing-risks regression, generalised estimating equations and mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

4065 older adults and 86,006 younger adults were included. There were more men amongst older adults; 44.7% vs. 33.4%; RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.29-1.39). Mortality after starting ART was substantially higher amongst older adults, adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) = 1.44 over 5 years (95% CI: 1.26-1.64), particularly for the period 7-60 months of treatment, asHR = 1.73 (95% CI: 1.44-2.10). LTFU was lower in older adults, asHR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78-0.97). Achievement of virological suppression was greater in older adults, adjusted odds ratio = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.23-1.64). The probabilities of viral rebound and confirmed virological failure were both lower in older adults, adjusted hazard ratios = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.85) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.47-0.89), respectively. The rate of CD4 cell recovery (amongst patients with continuous viral suppression) was 25 cells/6 months of ART (95% CI: 17.3-33.2) lower in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Although older adults had better virological outcomes and reduced LTFU, their higher mortality and slower immunological recovery warrant consideration of age-specific ART initiation criteria and management strategies.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programmes in rural Lesotho: health centres and hospitals compared

Introduction

Lesotho was among the first countries to adopt decentralization of care from hospitals to nurse-led health centres (HCs) to scale up the provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared outcomes between patients who started ART at HCs and hospitals in two rural catchment areas in Lesotho.

Methods

The two catchment areas comprise two hospitals and 12 HCs. Patients ≥16 years starting ART at a hospital or HC between 2008 and 2011 were included. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as not returning to the facility for ≥180 days after the last visit, no follow-up (no FUP) as not returning after starting ART, and retention in care as alive and on ART at the facility. The data were analysed using logistic regression, competing risk regression and Kaplan-Meier methods. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for sex, age, CD4 cell count, World Health Organization stage, catchment area and type of ART. All analyses were stratified by gender.

Results

Of 3747 patients, 2042 (54.5%) started ART at HCs. Both women and men at hospitals had more advanced clinical and immunological stages of disease than those at HCs. Over 5445 patient-years, 420 died and 475 were LTFU. Kaplan-Meier estimates for three-year retention were 68.7 and 69.7% at HCs and hospitals, respectively, among women (p=0.81) and 68.8% at HCs versus 54.7% at hospitals among men (p<0.001). These findings persisted in adjusted analyses, with similar retention at HCs and hospitals among women (odds ratio (OR): 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73–1.09) and higher retention at HCs among men (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.20–1.96). The latter result was mainly driven by a lower proportion of patients LTFU at HCs (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.51–0.93).

Conclusions

In rural Lesotho, overall retention in care did not differ significantly between nurse-led HCs and hospitals. However, men seemed to benefit most from starting ART at HCs, as they were more likely to remain in care in these facilities compared to hospitals.

Impact of definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in antiretroviral therapy program evaluation: variation in the definition can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of different definitions of loss to follow-up (LTFU) on estimates of program outcomes in cohort studies of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We examined the impact of different definitions of LTFU using data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa. The reference approach, Definition A, was compared with five alternative scenarios that differed in eligibility for analysis and the date assigned to the LTFU outcome. Kaplan-Meier estimates of LTFU were calculated up to 2 years after starting ART.

RESULTS

Estimated cumulative LTFU were 14% and 22% at 12 and 24 months, respectively, using the reference approach. Differences in the proportion LTFU were reported in the alternative scenarios with 12-month estimates of LTFU varying by up to 39% compared with Definition A. Differences were largest when the date assigned to the LTFU outcome was 6 months after the date of last contact and when the site-specific definition of LTFU was used.

CONCLUSION

Variation in the definitions of LTFU within cohort analyses can have an appreciable impact on estimated proportions of LTFU over 2 years of follow-up. Use of a standardized definition of LTFU is needed to accurately measure program effectiveness and comparability between programs.

Impact of definitions of loss to follow-up on estimates of retention, disease progression, and mortality: application to an HIV program in Mozambique

Patient retention is critical to the management of chronic diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); hence, accurate measures of loss to follow-up (LTF) are important. Many different LTF definitions have been proposed. In a cohort of 9,692 HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Mozambique from 2006 to 2011, we investigated the impact of the definition of LTF on estimated rates of LTF, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events, and death by applying 17 different definitions of LTF gleaned from HIV literature. We further investigated the impact of 4 specific components of the LTF definitions. Cumulative incidences of LTF and AIDS-defining events were estimated by treating death as a competing risk; Kaplan-Meier techniques and variations to account for informative censoring were used to estimate rates of mortality. Estimates of LTF 2 years after treatment initiation were high and varied substantially, from 22% to 84% depending on the LTF definition used. Estimates of 2-year mortality varied from 11% to 16%, and estimates of 2-year AIDS-defining events varied from 6% to 8%. As seen here, the choice of LTF definition can greatly affect study conclusions and program evaluations. Selection of LTF definitions should be based on the study outcome, available data on clinical encounters, and the patients' visit schedules; we suggest some general guidelines.

Combination prevention: new hope for stopping the epidemic

HIV research has identified approaches that can be combined to be more effective in transmission reduction than any 1 modality alone: delayed adolescent sexual debut, mutual monogamy or sexual partner reduction, correct and consistent condom use, pre-exposure prophylaxis with oral antiretroviral drugs or vaginal microbicides, voluntary medical male circumcision, antiretroviral therapy (ART) for prevention (including prevention of mother to child HIV transmission [PMTCT]), treatment of sexually transmitted infections, use of clean needles for all injections, blood screening prior to donation, a future HIV prime/boost vaccine, and the female condom. The extent to which evidence-based modalities can be combined to prevent substantial HIV transmission is largely unknown, but combination approaches that are truly implementable in field conditions are likely to be far more effective than single interventions alone. Analogous to PMTCT, "treatment as prevention" for adult-to-adult transmission reduction includes expanded HIV testing, linkage to care, antiretroviral coverage, retention in care, adherence to therapy, and management of key co-morbidities such as depression and substance use. With successful viral suppression, persons with HIV are far less infectious to others, as we see in the fields of sexually transmitted infection control and mycobacterial disease control (tuberculosis and leprosy). Combination approaches are complex, may involve high program costs, and require substantial global commitments. We present a rationale for such investments and cite an ongoing research agenda that seeks to determine how feasible and cost-effective a combination prevention approach would be in a variety of epidemic contexts, notably that in a sub-Saharan Africa.

Loss of HIV-infected patients on potent antiretroviral therapy programs in Togo: risk factors and the fate of these patients

Introduction

National programs are facing challenges of loss to follow-up of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to identify risk factors associated with early loss to follow-up among HIV-infected patients on ART in Togo and the outcome of such patients.

Methods

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study using medical records of all patients older than age 15 years enrolled at 28 treatment centers who were on ART programs and who were lost to follow-up from 2008 to 2011.

Results

Of the 16,617 patients on ART, 1,216 (7.3%) were lost to follow-up. Most (94.1%) were infected with HIV-1 and 32.6% were in WHO stage III or IV. The median CD4 count was 118/mm3 (IQR: 58-178 cells/mm3). No telephone number was mentioned in the medical records of 212 patients. Of the 1004 patients whose phone number was listed, 802 patients (79.9%) were not reachable on the recorded number, 114 patients (11.4%) were alive and 88 patients (8.8%) had died. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with loss to follow-up during the first 6 months of ART were: age below 35 years (OR = 1.6; 95%CI: 1.2-2.2), female sex (OR = 1.8; 95%CI: 1.3-2.5), WHO stage III or IV (OR = 1.7; 95%CI: 1.3-2.2), existence of an opportunistic infection (OR = 2.3; 95%CI: 1.5-3.1), and follow-up in a public centre (OR = 1.9; 95%CI: 1.2-3.3).

Conclusion

This study identified several factors associated with lost to follow-up during the first 6 months of ART, and confirmed high mortality among these patients. The National AIDS Program should strengthen medical support of PLWHA in Togo including active case follow-up.

Loss to follow-up as a competing risk in an observational study of HIV-1 incidence

OBJECTIVE

Conventional survival estimates may be biased if loss to follow-up (LTF) is associated with the outcome of interest. Our goal was to assess whether the association between sexual risk behavior and HIV-1 acquisition changed after accounting for LTF with competing risks regression.

METHODS

HIV-1-seronegative women who enrolled in a Kenyan sex worker cohort from 1993-2007 were followed prospectively and tested for HIV at monthly clinic visits. Our primary predictor was self-reported sexual risk behavior in the past week, analyzed as a time-dependent covariate. Outcomes included HIV-1 acquisition and LTF. We analyzed the data using Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risks regression, in which LTF was treated as a competing event.

RESULTS

A total of 1,513 women contributed 4,150 person-years (py), during which 198 (13.1%) acquired HIV-1 infection (incidence, 4.5 per 100 py) and 969 (64.0%) were LTF (incidence, 23.4 per 100 py). After adjusting for potential confounders, women reporting unprotected sex with multiple partners were less likely to be lost to follow-up (adjusted sub-hazard ratio (aSHR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.76, relative to no sexual activity). The risk of HIV-1 acquisition after reporting unprotected sex with multiple partners was similar with Cox regression (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.41, 95% CI 1.36-4.27) and competing risks regression (aSHR 2.47, 95% CI 1.33-4.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Unprotected sex with multiple partners was associated with higher HIV-1 acquisition risk, but lower attrition. This differential attrition did not substantially bias Cox regression estimates when compared to competing risks regression results.

Heterogeneity in outcomes of treated HIV-positive patients in Europe and North America: relation with patient and cohort characteristics

BACKGROUND

HIV cohort collaborations, which pool data from diverse patient cohorts, have provided key insights into outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the extent of, and reasons for, between-cohort heterogeneity in rates of AIDS and mortality are unclear.

METHODS

We obtained data on adult HIV-positive patients who started ART from 1998 without a previous AIDS diagnosis from 17 cohorts in North America and Europe. Patients were followed up from 1 month to 2 years after starting ART. We examined between-cohort heterogeneity in crude and adjusted (age, sex, HIV transmission risk, year, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) rates of AIDS and mortality using random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

During 61 520 person-years, 754/38 706 (1.9%) patients died and 1890 (4.9%) progressed to AIDS. Between-cohort variance in mortality rates was reduced from 0.84 to 0.24 (0.73 to 0.28 for AIDS rates) after adjustment for patient characteristics. Adjusted mortality rates were inversely associated with cohorts' estimated completeness of death ascertainment [excellent: 96-100%, good: 90-95%, average: 75-89%; mortality rate ratio 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.46-0.94) per category]. Mortality rate ratios comparing Europe with North America were 0.42 (0.31-0.57) before and 0.47 (0.30-0.73) after adjusting for completeness of ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity between settings in outcomes of HIV treatment has implications for collaborative analyses, policy and clinical care. Estimated mortality rates may require adjustment for completeness of ascertainment. Higher mortality rate in North American, compared with European, cohorts was not fully explained by completeness of ascertainment and may be because of the inclusion of more socially marginalized patients with higher mortality risk.

Tenofovir in second-line ART in Zambia and South Africa: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

OBJECTIVES

Tenofovir (TDF) is increasingly used in second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared outcomes of second-line ART containing and not containing TDF in cohort studies from Zambia and the Republic of South Africa (RSA).

METHODS

Patients aged 16 years and older starting protease-inhibitor-based second-line ART in Zambia (1 cohort) and RSA (5 cohorts) were included. We compared mortality, immunological failure (all cohorts), and virological failure (RSA only) between patients receiving and not receiving TDF. Competing risk models and Cox models adjusted for age, sex, CD4 count, time on first-line ART, and calendar year were used to analyze mortality and treatment failure, respectively. Hazard ratios (HRs) were combined in fixed-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

1687 patients from Zambia and 1556 patients from RSA, including 1350 (80.0%) and 206 (13.2%) patients starting TDF, were followed over 4471 person-years. Patients on TDF were more likely to have started second-line ART in recent years and had slightly higher baseline CD4 counts than patients not on TDF. Overall, 127 patients died, 532 were lost to follow-up, and 240 patients developed immunological failure. In RSA, 94 patients had virologic failure. Combined HRs comparing TDF with other regimens were 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41 to 0.87) for immunologic failure and 0.63 (0.38-1.05) for mortality. The HR for virologic failure in RSA was 0.28 (0.09-0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In this observational study, patients on TDF-containing second-line ART were less likely to develop treatment failure than patients on other regimens. TDF seems to be an effective component of second-line ART in southern Africa.

HIV treatment as prevention: models, data, and questions--towards evidence-based decision-making

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and mathematical modelling will be central in framing key decisions in the optimal use of ART. PLoS Medicine, with the HIV Modelling Consortium, has commissioned a set of articles that examine different aspects of HIV treatment as prevention with a forward-looking research agenda. Interlocking themes across these articles are discussed in this introduction. We hope that this article, and others in the collection, will provide a foundation upon which greater collaborations between disciplines will be formed, and will afford deeper insights into the key factors involved, to help strengthen the support for evidence-based decision-making in HIV prevention.