Temperature dependence of the extrinsic incubation period of orbiviruses in Culicoides biting midges

Climate correlates of bluetongue incidence in southern Portugal

Model forecasts of the spatiotemporal occurrence dynamics of diseases are necessary and can help understand and thus manage future disease outbreaks. In our study, we used ecological niche modelling to assess the impact of climate on the vector suitability for bluetongue disease, a disease affecting livestock production with important economic consequences. Specifically, we investigated the relationship between the occurrence of bluetongue outbreaks and the environmental suitability of each of the four vector species studied. We found that the main vector for bluetongue disease, Culicoides imicola, a typically tropical and subtropical species, was a strong predictor for disease outbreak occurrence in a region of southern Portugal from 2004 to 2021. The results highlight the importance of understanding the climatic factors that might influence vector presence to help manage infectious disease impacts. When diseases impact economically relevant species, the impacts go beyond mortality and have important economic consequences.

Evaluating Temperature Effects on Bluetongue Virus Serotype 10 and 17 Coinfection in Culicoides sonorensis

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a segmented, double-stranded RNA virus transmitted by Culicoides midges that infects ruminants. As global temperatures increase and geographical ranges of midges expand, there is increased potential for BTV outbreaks from incursions of novel serotypes into endemic regions. However, an understanding of the effect of temperature on reassortment is lacking. The objectives of this study were to compare how temperature affected Culicoides survival, virogenesis, and reassortment in Culicoides sonorensis coinfected with two BTV serotypes. Midges were fed blood meals containing BTV-10, BTV-17, or BTV serotype 10 and 17 and maintained at 20 °C, 25 °C, or 30 °C. Midge survival was assessed, and pools of midges were collected every other day to evaluate virogenesis of BTV via qRT-PCR. Additional pools of coinfected midges were collected for BTV plaque isolation. The genotypes of plaques were determined using next-generation sequencing. Warmer temperatures impacted traits related to vector competence in offsetting ways: BTV replicated faster in midges at warmer temperatures, but midges did not survive as long. Overall, plaques with BTV-17 genotype dominated, but BTV-10 was detected in some plaques, suggesting parental strain fitness may play a role in reassortment outcomes. Temperature adds an important dimension to host-pathogen interactions with implications for transmission and evolution.

Epidemiological Analyses of the First Incursion of the Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus Serotype 8 in Tunisia, 2021-2022

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) is a non-contagious arthropod-transmitted viral disease and a World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH)-listed disease of domestic and wild ruminants since 2008. EHDV is transmitted among susceptible animals by a few species of midges of genus Culicoides. During the fall of 2021, a large outbreak caused by the epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), identified as serotype 8, was reported in Tunisian dairy and beef farms with Bluetongue virus (BTV)-like clinical signs. The disease was detected later in the south of Italy, in Spain, in Portugal and, more recently, in France, where it caused severe infections in cattle. This was the first evidence of EHDV-8 circulation outside Australia since 1982. In this study, we analyzed the epidemiological situation of the 2021-2022 EHDV outbreaks reported in Tunisia, providing a detailed description of the spatiotemporal evolution of the disease. We attempted to identify the eco-climatic factors associated with infected areas using generalized linear models (GLMs). Our results demonstrated that environmental factors mostly associated with the presence of C. imicola, such as digital elevation model (DEM), slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and night-time land surface temperature (NLST)) were by far the most explanatory variables for EHD repartition cases in Tunisia that may have consequences in neighboring countries, both in Africa and Europe through the spread of infected vectors. The risk maps elaborated could be useful for disease control and prevention strategies.

Thermal preference of Culicoides biting midges in laboratory and semi-field settings

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are hematophagous insects, and some species can transmit a plethora of pathogens, e.g., bluetongue virus and African horse sickness virus, that mainly affect animals. The transmission of vector-borne pathogens is strongly temperature dependent, and recent studies pointed to the importance of including microclimatic data when modelling disease spread. However, little is known about the preferred temperature of biting midges. The present study addressed the thermal selection of field-caught Culicoides with two experiments. In a laboratory setup, sugar-fed or blood-fed midges were video tracked for 15 min while moving inside a 60 × 30 × 4 cm setup with a 15-25 °C temperature gradient. Culicoides spent over double the time in the coldest zone of the setup compared to the warmest one. This cold selection was significantly stronger for sugar-fed individuals. Calculated preferred temperatures were 18.3 °C and 18.9 °C for sugar-fed and blood-fed Culicoides, respectively. The effect of temperature on walking speed was significant but weak, indicating that their skewed distribution results from preference and not cold trapping. A second experiment consisted of a two-way-choice-setup, performed in a 90 × 45 × 45 cm net cage, placed outdoors in a sheltered environment. Two UV LED CDC traps were placed inside the setup, and a mean temperature difference of 2.2 °C was created between the two traps. Hundred-fifty Culicoides were released per experiment. Recapture rates were negatively correlated with ambient temperature and were on average three times higher in the cooled trap. The higher prevalence of biting midges in cooler environments influences fitness and ability to transmit pathogens and should be considered in models that predict Culicoides disease transmission.

Biting Midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) as Vectors of Viruses

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides occur almost globally and can regionally and seasonally reach high abundances. Most species are hematophagous, feeding on all groups of vertebrates, including humans. In addition to being nuisance pests, they are able to transmit disease agents, with some viruses causing high morbidity and/or mortality in ruminants, horses and humans. Despite their impact on animal husbandry, public health and tourism, knowledge on the biology and ecology of culicoid biting midges and their interactions with ingested pathogens or symbiotic microorganisms is limited. Research is challenging due to unknown larval habitats, the insects' tiny size, the inability to establish and breed most species in the laboratory and the laborious maintenance of colonies of the few species that can be reared in the laboratory. Consequently, the natural transmission of pathogens has experimentally been demonstrated for few species while, for others, only indirect evidence of vector potential exists. Most experimental data are available for Culicoides sonorensis and C. nubeculosus, the only species kept in western-world insectaries. This contribution gives an overview on important biting midge vectors, transmitted viruses, culicoid-borne viral diseases and their epidemiologies and summarizes the little knowledge on interactions between biting midges, their microflora and culicoid-borne arboviruses.

Thermal preference of adult mosquitoes (Culicidae) and biting midges (Ceratopogonidae) at different altitudes in Switzerland

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are among the most important vectors of human and veterinary pathogens. For modelling the distribution of these pathogens, entomological aspects are essential, which in turn are highly dependent on environmental factors, such as temperature. In this study, mosquitoes and biting midges were sampled in multiple microclimates at two low (360, 480 meters above sea level, m.a.s.l.) and two high (1250, 1530 m.a.s.l.) altitude locations in Switzerland. Sets of various traps (CO2 -baited CDC, LED-UV, resting boxes, oviposition cups) equipped with dataloggers were placed in transects at five sites with similar vegetation at each location. Only the CDC and the LED-UV traps collected enough insects for analyses. Taxonomic diversity was greater for mosquitoes but lower for biting midges at lower altitudes. Both mosquitoes and biting midges had a thermal preference. Culicoides preferred the traps with warmer microclimate, especially at lower altitudes, whereas mosquito preferences depended on the species, but not on altitude. Relative humidity had a significant positive impact on catches of biting midges but not mosquitoes. To obtain better data on thermal preferences of resting and ovipositing vectors in addition to host seeking individuals, new and improved collecting methods are needed.

An Agent-Based Model of Biting Midge Dynamics to Understand Bluetongue Outbreaks

Bluetongue (BT) is a well-known vector-borne disease that infects ruminants such as sheep, cattle, and deer with high mortality rates. Recent outbreaks in Europe highlight the importance of understanding vector-host dynamics and potential courses of action to mitigate the damage that can be done by BT. We present an agent-based model, entitled 'MidgePy', that focuses on the movement of individual Culicoides spp. biting midges and their interactions with ruminants to understand their role as vectors in BT outbreaks, especially in regions that do not regularly experience outbreaks. The results of our sensitivity analysis suggest that midge survival rate has a significant impact on the probability of a BTV outbreak as well as its severity. Using midge flight activity as a proxy for temperature, we found that an increase in environmental temperature corresponded with an increased probability of outbreak after identifying parameter regions where outbreaks are more likely to occur. This suggests that future methods to control BT spread could combine large-scale vaccination programs with biting midge population control measures such as the use of pesticides. Spatial heterogeneity in the environment is also explored to give insight on optimal farm layouts to reduce the potential for BT outbreaks.

Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus: Current Knowledge and Emerging Perspectives

Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) of ruminants is a viral pathology that has significant welfare, social, and economic implications. The causative agent, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV), belongs to the Orbivirus genus and leads to significant regional disease outbreaks among livestock and wildlife in North America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania, causing significant morbidity and mortality. During the past decade, this viral disease has become a real threat for countries of the Mediterranean basin, with the recent occurrence of several important outbreaks in livestock. Moreover, the European Union registered the first cases of EHDV ever detected within its territory. Competent vectors involved in viral transmission, Culicoides midges, are expanding its distribution, conceivably due to global climate change. Therefore, livestock and wild ruminants around the globe are at risk for this serious disease. This review provides an overview of current knowledge about EHDV, including changes of distribution and virulence, an examination of different animal models of disease, and a discussion about potential treatments to control the disease.

Effect of Constant Temperatures on Culicoides sonorensis Midge Physiology and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Infection

Simple Summary

Culicoides biting midges are nuisance pests of livestock and well-known vectors of veterinary arboviruses, such as vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Female midges ingest viruses when feeding on blood to obtain protein for egg-laying. After ingesting a VSV-infected blood meal, the environmental temperature of the resting location mediates the rates at which blood is digested, eggs are laid, and virus particles are replicated inside the midge. VSV transmission will occur if the timing of virus amplification aligns with the next feeding–egg-laying cycle. We evaluated the impact of constant environmental temperatures on midge physiology (lifespan and reproduction), vector competence for VSV (infection and dissemination), and thermal resting preference. Our results indicate that after ingesting a blood meal, most midges prefer to rest in areas that fall within their preferred physiological range regardless of the temperatures at which they were being maintained. These preferred temperatures maximized their survival, the number of egg-laying cycles, and the likelihood of VSV transmission. Our temperature approach shows that in the Culicoides–VSV system, the preferred resting temperature selected by blood-fed midges is beneficial for both insect and virus transmission.

Abstract

Culicoides midges play an important role in vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) transmission to US livestock. After VSV-blood feeding, blood digestion followed by oviposition occurs while ingested virus particles replicate and disseminate to salivary glands for transmission during subsequent blood-feeding events. Changes to environmental temperature may alter the feeding–oviposition–refeeding cycles, midge survival, VSV infection, and overall vector capacity. However, the heterothermic midge may respond rapidly to environmental changes by adjusting their thermal behavior to resting in areas closer to their physiological range. Here we investigated the effects of four constant environmental temperatures (20, 25, 30, and 35 °C) on C. sonorensis survival, oviposition, and VSV infection, as well as resting thermal preferences after blood-feeding. We found that most midges preferred to rest in areas at 25–30 °C. These two constant temperatures (25 and 30 °C) allowed an intermediate fitness performance, with a 66% survival probability by day 10 and oviposition cycles occurring every 2–3 days. Additionally, VSV infection rates in bodies and heads with salivary glands were higher than in midges held at 20 °C and 35 °C. Our results provide insight into the implications of temperature on VSV–Culicoides interactions and confirm that the range of temperature preferred by midges can benefit both the vector and the arbovirus.

Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.

A Qualitative Risk Assessment for Bluetongue Disease and African Horse Sickness: The Risk of Entry and Exposure at a UK Zoo

Bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) cause economically important diseases that are currently exotic to the United Kingdom (UK), but have significant potential for introduction and onward transmission. Given the susceptibility of animals kept in zoo collections to vector-borne diseases, a qualitative risk assessment for the introduction of BTV and AHSV to ZSL London Zoo was performed. Risk pathways for each virus were identified and assessed using published literature, animal import data and outputs from epidemiological models. Direct imports of infected animals, as well as wind-borne infected Culicoides, were considered as routes of incursion. The proximity of ongoing disease events in mainland Europe and proven capability of transmission to the UK places ZSL London Zoo at higher risk of BTV release and exposure (estimated as low to medium) than AHSV (estimated as very low to low). The recent long-range expansion of AHSV into Thailand from southern Africa highlights the need for vector competence studies of Palearctic Culicoides for AHSV to assess the risk of transmission in this region.

Re-parameterisation of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search

African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector‐borne disease transmitted by Culicoides spp., endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and recent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better inform a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that died/were euthanized or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous estimations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, decrease in the duration of the outbreak and greater prevalence in vectors.

Climate change impacts on ticks and tick-borne infections

Evidence climate change is impacting ticks and tick-borne infections is generally lacking. This is primarily because, in most parts of the world, there are no long-term and replicated data on the distribution and abundance of tick populations, and the prevalence and incidence of tick-borne infections. Notable exceptions exist, as in Canada where the northeastern advance of Ixodes scapularis and Lyme borreliosis in the USA prompted the establishment of tick and associated disease surveillance. As a result, the past 30 years recorded the encroachment and spread of I. scapularis and Lyme borreliosis across much of Canada concomitant with a 2-3 °C increase in land surface temperature. A similar northerly advance of I. ricinus [and associated Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)] has been recorded in northern Europe together with expansion of this species’ range to higher altitudes in Central Europe and the Greater Alpine Region, again concomitant with rising temperatures. Changes in tick species composition are being recorded, with increases in more heat tolerant phenotypes (such as Rhipicephalus microplus in Africa), while exotic species, such as Haemaphysalis longicornis and Hyalomma marginatum, are becoming established in the USA and Southern Europe, respectively. In the next 50 years these trends are likely to continue, whereas, at the southern extremities of temperate species’ ranges, diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and TBE may become less prevalent. Where socioeconomic conditions link livestock with livelihoods, as in Pakistan and much of Africa, a One Health approach is needed to tackling ticks and tick-borne infections under the increasing challenges presented by climate change.

Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.

Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

BACKGROUND

African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus.

METHODS

The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios.

RESULTS

The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan

Background

Bluetongue is a serious disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV). BTV is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). Serological evidence from livestock and the presence of at least one competent vector species of Culicoides suggests that transmission of BTV is possible and may have occurred in Kazakhstan.

Methods

We estimated the risk of transmission using a mathematical model of the reproduction number R₀ for bluetongue. This model depends on livestock density and climatic factors which affect vector density. Data on climate and livestock numbers from the 2466 local communities were used. This, together with previously published model parameters, was used to estimate R₀ for each month of the year. We plotted the results on isopleth maps of Kazakhstan using interpolation to smooth the irregular data. We also mapped the estimated proportion of the population requiring vaccination to prevent outbreaks of bluetongue.

Results

The results suggest that transmission of bluetongue in Kazakhstan is not possible in the winter from October to March. Assuming there are vector-competent species of Culicoides endemic in Kazakhstan, then low levels of risk first appear in the south of Kazakhstan in April before spreading north and intensifying, reaching maximum levels in northern Kazakhstan in July. The risk declined in September and had disappeared by October.

Conclusion

These results should aid in surveillance efforts for the detection and control of bluetongue in Kazakhstan by indicating where and when outbreaks of bluetongue are most likely to occur. The results also indicate where vaccination efforts should be focussed to prevent outbreaks of disease.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04945-6.

Summer seasonal prevalence of Culicoides species from pre-alpine areas in Switzerland

Biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are arthropods of veterinary importance since they can transmit pathogens and cause severe allergic dermatitis in horses. Very little is known about the species at higher altitudes and their seasonal dynamics. In this work, adult Culicoides were collected with Onderstepoort UV-light suction traps (OVI) from June to September 2016 at two areas situated at around 1600 m asl (pre-alpine area I, 2 farms) and 2030 m asl (pre-alpine area II, 1 farm) in the Canton of Grisons (south-east Switzerland). Overall, 17 049 Culicoides were collected, including 871 parous females. A total of 50 individuals/trap/night (n = 1050) were identified to species (17 species) by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) or by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing. The remaining 15 128 Culicoides were classified to species groups' level. Culicoides obsoletus (Meigen, 1818), a multivoltine species, was mainly present at 1600 m asl, whereas at high altitudes (2030 m asl), C. grisescens Edwards, 1939 I&II were the most abundant species. In particular, C. grisescens II, which seems to be univoltine, occurred later in the season but significantly increasing over time. Species diversity was higher at pre-alpine I area (n = 16 species) compared to pre-alpine II (n = 10 species).

Development and lifespan of Culicoides obsoletus s.s. (Meigen) and other livestock-associated species reared at different temperatures under laboratory conditions

Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) transmit arboviruses affecting wild and domestic ruminants such as bluetongue (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV). The sub-adult development and lifespan of Culicoides obsoletus s.s. (Meigen), Culicoides circumscriptus Kieffer and Culicoides paolae Boorman were examined at three different temperatures under laboratory conditions. Insects were collected from field between spring and autumn 2015 in two livestock farms located in Majorca (Spain). Gravid females were held individually at 18, 25 or 30 °C. Low temperatures increased the adult lifespan, time to oviposit and rate of development, whereas high temperatures increased the number of eggs, successful pupation and adult emergence as well as the larvae growth rate. The results showed that C. obsoletus s.s. have optimum development at 18 °C, whereas the optimal rearing temperature for C. circumscriptus and C. paolae was under warmer conditions of 25-30 °C. Variations in temperature/humidity and assays with different materials and substrates for oviposition should be considered in future studies. Understanding the requirements of the different species of Culicoides optimizing the results should be of special interest for predicting environmental change effects on these species, in addition to determining the rearing conditions for candidate Culicoides vectors.

Exposure of Culicoides sonorensis to Enzootic Strains of Bluetongue Virus Demonstrates Temperature- and Virus-Specific Effects on Virogenesis

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is a segmented RNA virus transmitted by Culicoides midges. Climatic factors, animal movement, vector species, and viral mutation and reassortment may all play a role in the occurrence of BTV outbreaks among susceptible ruminants. We used two enzootic strains of BTV (BTV-2 and BTV-10) to explore the potential for Culicoides sonorensis, a key North American vector, to be infected with these viruses, and identify the impact of temperature variations on virogenesis during infection. While BTV-10 replicated readily in C. sonorensis following an infectious blood meal, BTV-2 was less likely to result in productive infection at biologically relevant exposure levels. Moreover, when C. sonorensis were co-exposed to both viruses, we did not detect reassortment between the two viruses, despite previous in vitro findings indicating that BTV-2 and BTV-10 are able to reassort successfully. These results highlight that numerous factors, including vector species and exposure dose, may impact the in vivo replication of varying BTV strains, and underscore the complexities of BTV ecology in North America.

Transmission of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 by Artificial Insemination with Frozen-Thawed Semen from Naturally Infected Bulls

Transmission of bluetongue (BT) virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) via artificial insemination of contaminated frozen semen from naturally infected bulls was investigated in two independent experiments. Healthy, BT negative heifers were hormonally synchronized and artificially inseminated at oestrus. In total, six groups of three heifers received semen from four batches derived from three bulls naturally infected with BTV-8. Each experiment included one control heifer that was not inseminated and that remained BT negative throughout. BTV viraemia and seroconversion were determined in 8 out of 18 inseminated heifers, and BTV was isolated from five of these animals. These eight heifers only displayed mild clinical signs of BT, if any at all, but six of them experienced pregnancy loss between weeks four and eight of gestation, and five of them became BT PCR and antibody positive. The other two infected heifers gave birth at term to two healthy and BT negative calves. The BT viral load varied among the semen batches used and this had a significant impact on the infection rate, the time of onset of viraemia post artificial insemination, and the gestational stage at which pregnancy loss occurred. These results, which confirm unusual features of BTV-8 infection, should not be extrapolated to infection with other BTV strains without thorough evaluation. This study also adds weight to the hypothesis that the re-emergence of BTV-8 in France in 2015 may be attributable to the use of contaminated bovine semen.

Scientific Opinion on the assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: African Horse Sickness

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases (‘Animal Health Law’). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures will be assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for African Horse Sickness (AHS). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zone, and the minimum duration of measures in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, specific details of the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radius of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures were assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. In summary, sampling procedures described in the diagnostic manual for AHS were considered efficient for all Equidae considering the high case fatality rate expected. The monitoring period (14 days) was assessed as effective in every scenario, except for those relating to the epidemiological enquiry where the risk manager should consider increasing the monitoring period, based on the awareness of keepers, environmental conditions and the vector abundance in the region. The current protection zone (100 km) comprises more than 95% of the infections from an affected establishment. Both the radius and duration of the zones could be reduced, based on local environmental conditions and the time of year of the first index case. Recommendations provided for each of the scenarios assessed aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation relating to AHS.

Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.

Thermal limits for flight activity of field-collected Culicoides in the United Kingdom defined under laboratory conditions

BACKGROUND

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are biological vectors of internationally important arboviruses and inflict biting nuisance on humans, companion animals and livestock. In temperate regions, transmission of arboviruses is limited by temperature thresholds, in both replication and dissemination of arboviruses within the vector and in the flight activity of adult Culicoides. This study aims to determine the cold-temperature thresholds for flight activity of Culicoides from the UK under laboratory conditions.

METHODS

Over 18,000 Culicoides adults were collected from the field using 4 W down-draught miniature ultraviolet Centers for Disease Control traps. Populations of Culicoides were sampled at three different geographical locations within the UK during the summer months and again in the autumn at one geographical location. Activity at constant temperatures was assessed using a bioassay that detected movement of adult Culicoides towards an ultraviolet light source over a 24-h period.

RESULTS

The proportion of active adult Culicoides increased with temperature but cold temperature thresholds for activity varied significantly according to collection season and location. Populations dominated by the subgenus Avaritia collected in South East England had a lower activity threshold temperature in the autumn (4 °C) compared with populations collected in the summer (10 °C). Within the subgenus Avaritia, Culicoides scoticus was significantly more active across all temperatures tested than Culicoides obsoletus within the experimental setup. Populations of Culicoides impunctatus collected in the North East of England were only active once temperatures reached 14 °C. Preliminary data suggested flight activity of the subgenus Avaritia does not differ between populations in South East England and those in the Scottish Borders.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate seasonal changes in temperature thresholds for flight and across different populations of Culicoides. These data, alongside that defining thresholds for virus replication within Culicoides, provide a primary tool for risk assessment of arbovirus transmission in temperate regions. In addition, the study also provides a comparison with thermal limits derived directly from light-suction trapping data, which is currently used as the main method to define adult Culicoides activity during surveillance.

Risk-based surveillance for bluetongue virus in cattle on the south coast of England in 2017 and 2018

BACKGROUND

Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease of ruminants and camelids which can have a significant impact on animal health and welfare and cause severe economic loss. The UK has been officially free of bluetongue virus (BTV) since 2011. In 2015, BTV-8 re-emerged in France and since then BTV has been spreading throughout Europe. In response to this outbreak, risk-based active surveillance was carried out at the end of the vector seasons in 2017 and 2018 to assess the risk of incursion of BTV into Great Britain.

METHOD

Atmospheric dispersion modelling identified counties on the south coast of England at higher risk of an incursion. Blood samples were collected from cattle in five counties based on a sample size designed to detect at least one positive if the prevalence was 5 per cent or greater, with 95 per cent confidence.

RESULTS

No virus was detected in the 478 samples collected from 32 farms at the end of the 2017 vector season or in the 646 samples collected from 43 farms at the end of the 2018 vector season, when tested by RT-qPCR.

CONCLUSION

The negative results from this risk-based survey provided evidence to support the continuation of the UK's official BTV-free status.

Epidemiological surveillance of Schmallenberg virus in small ruminants in southern Spain

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an emerging Culicoides-borne Orthobunyavirus that affects ruminant species. Between 2011 and 2013, it was responsible for a large-scale epidemic in Europe. In the present study, we aimed to determine the seroprevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors associated with SBV exposure in sheep and goats in the region where the first Schmallenberg disease outbreak in Spain was reported. Blood samples from 1,796 small ruminants from 120 farms were collected in Andalusia (southern Spain) between 2015 and 2017. Antibodies against SBV were detected in 536 of 1,796 animals (29.8%; 95%CI: 27.7-32.0) using a commercial blocking ELISA. The individual seroprevalence according to species was 31.1% (280/900; 95%CI: 28.1-34.1) in sheep and 28.6% (256/896; 95%CI: 25.6-31.5) in goats. The farm prevalence was 76.7% (95%CI: 69.1-84.2). Seropositivity to SBV was confirmed in both sheep and goats in all provinces by virus neutralization test. Two significant (p < .001) spatial clusters of high seroprevalence were identified. The generalized estimating equation analysis showed that management system (extensive), temperature (>14ºC) and altitude (<400 metres above sea level) were risk factors associated with SBV exposure in small ruminants. Our results highlight widespread but not homogeneous circulation of SBV in small ruminant populations in Spain.

Bluetongue Disease Control in Northern Ireland During 2017 and 2018

Since the emergence of bluetongue virus in central and northern Europe in 2006, Northern Ireland's (NI) surveillance programme has evolved to include the use of risk assessments and simulation models to monitor the risk of bluetongue incursion. Livestock production is of high economic importance to NI as it exports approximately 75% of its agricultural produce. Its surveillance programme is designed to enable effective mitigation measures to be identified to minimize disease risk, and to provide additional assurances to protect NI's export markets in the European Union (EU) and third countries. Active surveillance employs an atmospheric dispersion model to assess the likelihood of wind-borne midge transfer from Great Britain (GB) to NI and to identify high risk areas. In these areas, the number of cattle tested for bluetongue is proportionally increased. Targeted surveillance is directed to ruminants imported from restricted countries and regions at risk of bluetongue. Targeted surveillance on high risk imports assists in early detection of disease as, despite all controls and preventive measures, legally imported animals may still carry the virus. In November 2018, a bluetongue-positive heifer was imported into NI. A case specific risk assessment was commissioned to estimate the likelihood of spread of bluetongue as a result of this incursion. November is the tail end of the midges' active period and therefore there was considerable uncertainty pertaining to the survival of midges inside a cattle shed and the potential for incubation of the virus in the vectors. An evidenced-based approach was adopted where temperature and midge abundance was monitored in order to minimize uncertainty and give an accurate estimate of the likelihood of virus spread to other animals following the arrival of the positive heifer. The heifer was destroyed and the evidence indicated that the risk of successful completion of the extrinsic cycle within the local midge population was negligible. This paper describes NI's surveillance programme between January 2017 and December 2018 and the case of a positive imported animal into the country. The importance of effective surveillance in early detection of threats and the usefulness of risk assessments is highlighted through the case study.

Temperature-dependent variation in the extrinsic incubation period elevates the risk of vector-borne disease emergence

Identifying ecological drivers of disease transmission is central to understanding disease risks. For vector-borne diseases, temperature is a major determinant of transmission because vital parameters determining the fitness of parasites and vectors are highly temperature-sensitive, including the extrinsic incubation period required for parasites to develop within the vector. Temperature also underlies dramatic differences in the individual-level variation in the extrinsic incubation period, yet the influence of this variation in disease transmission is largely unexplored. We incorporate empirical estimates of dengue virus extrinsic incubation period and its variation across a range of temperatures into a stochastic model to examine the consequences for disease emergence. We find that such variation impacts the probability of disease emergence because exceptionally rapid, but empirically observed incubation - typically ignored by modelling only the average - increases the chance of disease emergence even at the limits of the temperature range for dengue transmission. We show that variation in the extrinsic incubation period causes the greatest proportional increase in the risk of disease emergence at cooler temperatures where the mean incubation period is long, and associated variation is large. Thus, ignoring EIP variation will likely lead to underestimation of the risk of vector-borne disease emergence in temperate climates.

Culicoides species as potential vectors of African horse sickness virus in the southern regions of South Africa

African horse sickness (AHS), a disease of equids caused by the AHS virus, is of major concern in South Africa. With mortality reaching up to 95% in susceptible horses and the apparent reoccurrence of cases in regions deemed non-endemic, most particularly the Eastern Cape, epidemiological research into factors contributing to the increase in the range of this economically important virus became imperative. The vectors, Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), are considered unable to proliferate during the unfavourable climatic conditions experienced in winter in the province, although the annual occurrence of AHS suggests that the virus has become established and that vector activity continues throughout the year. Surveillance of Culicoides within the province is sparse and little was known of the diversity of vector species or the abundance of known vectors, Culicoides imicola and Culicoides bolitinos. Surveillance was performed using light trapping methods at selected sites with varying equid species over two winter and two outbreak seasons, aiming to determine diversity, abundance and vector epidemiology of Culicoides within the province. The research provided an updated checklist of Culicoides species within the Eastern Cape, contributing to an increase in the knowledge of AHS vector epidemiology, as well as prevention and control in southern Africa.

Prospects of Next-Generation Vaccines for Bluetongue

Bluetongue (BT) is a haemorrhagic disease of wild and domestic ruminants with a huge economic worldwide impact on livestock. The disease is caused by BT-virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges and disease control without vaccination is hardly possible. Vaccination is the most feasible and cost-effective way to minimize economic losses. Marketed BT vaccines are successfully used in different parts of the world. Inactivated BT vaccines are efficacious and safe but relatively expensive, whereas live-attenuated vaccines are efficacious and cheap but are unsafe because of under-attenuation, onward spread, reversion to virulence, and reassortment events. Both manufactured BT vaccines do not enable differentiating infected from vaccinated animals (DIVA) and protection is limited to the respective serotype. The ideal BT vaccine is a licensed, affordable, completely safe DIVA vaccine, that induces quick, lifelong, broad protection in all susceptible ruminant species. Promising vaccine candidates show improvement for one or more of these main vaccine standards. BTV protein vaccines and viral vector vaccines have DIVA potential depending on the selected BTV antigens, but are less effective and likely more costly per protected animal than current vaccines. Several vaccine platforms based on replicating BTV are applied for many serotypes by exchange of serotype dominant outer shell proteins. These platforms based on one BTV backbone result in attenuation or abortive virus replication and prevent disease by and spread of vaccine virus as well as reversion to virulence. These replicating BT vaccines induce humoral and T-cell mediated immune responses to all viral proteins except to one, which could enable DIVA tests. Most of these replicating vaccines can be produced similarly as currently marketed BT vaccines. All replicating vaccine platforms developed by reverse genetics are classified as genetic modified organisms. This implies extensive and expensive safety trails in target ruminant species, and acceptance by the community could be hindered. Nonetheless, several experimental BT vaccines show very promising improvements and could compete with marketed vaccines regarding their vaccine profile, but none of these next generation BT vaccines have been licensed yet.

Current Challenges in the Development of Vaccines and Drugs Against Emerging Vector-borne Diseases

Vectors are living organisms that transmit infectious diseases from an infected animal to humans or another animal. Biological vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and sand flies carry pathogens that multiply within their bodies prior to delivery to a new host. The increased prevalence of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) such as Aedes-borne dengue, Chikungunya (CHIKV), Zika (ZIKV), malaria, Tick-Borne Disease (TBD), and scrub typhus has a huge impact on the health of both humans and livestock worldwide. In particular, zoonotic diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks place a considerable burden on public health. Vaccines, drugs, and vector control methods have been developed to prevent and treat VBDs and have prevented millions of deaths. However, development of such strategies is falling behind the rapid emergence of VBDs. Therefore, a comprehensive approach to fighting VBDs must be considered immediately. In this review, I focus on the challenges posed by emerging outbreaks of VBDs and discuss available drugs and vaccines designed to overcome this burden. Research into promising drugs needs to be upgraded and fast-tracked, and novel drugs or vaccines being tested in in vitro and in vivo models need to be moved into human clinical trials. Active preventive tactics, as well as new and upgraded diagnostics, surveillance, treatments, and vaccination strategies, need to be monitored constantly if we are to manage VBDs of medical importance.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Quantifying the potential for bluetongue virus transmission in Danish cattle farms

We used a mechanistic transmission model to estimate the number of infectious bites (IBs) generated per bluetongue virus (BTV) infected host (cattle) using estimated hourly microclimatic temperatures at 22,004 Danish cattle farms for the period 2000–2016, and Culicoides midge abundance based on 1,453 light-trap collections during 2007–2016. We used a range of published estimates of the duration of the hosts’ infectious period and equations for the relationship between temperature and four key transmission parameters: extrinsic incubation period, daily vector survival rate, daily vector biting rate and host-to-vector transmission rate resulting in 147,456 combinations of daily IBs. More than 82% combinations of the parameter values predicted > 1 IBs per host. The mean IBs (10–90^th percentiles) for BTV per infectious host were 59 (0–73) during the transmission period. We estimated a maximum of 14,954 IBs per infectious host at some farms, while a best-case scenario suggested transmission was never possible at some farms. The use of different equations for the vector survival rate and host-to-vector transmission rates resulted in large uncertainty in the predictions. If BTV is introduced in Denmark, local transmission is very likely to occur. Vectors infected as late as mid-September (early autumn) can successfully transmit BTV to a new host until mid-November (late autumn).

The Role of Movement Restrictions in Limiting the Economic Impact of Livestock Infections

Movements are essential for the economic success of the livestock industry. These movements however bring the risk of long-range spread of infection, potentially bringing infection to previously disease-free areas where subsequent localised transmission can be devastating. Mechanistic predictive models usually consider controls that minimize the number of livestock affected without considering other costs of an ongoing epidemic. However, it is more appropriate to consider the economic burden, as movement restrictions have major consequences for the economic revenue of farms. Using mechanistic models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), bluetongue virus (BTV) and bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in the UK, we contrast the economically optimal control strategies for these diseases. We show that for FMD, the optimal strategy is to ban movements in a small radius around infected farms; the balance between disease control and maintaining 'business as usual' varies between regions. For BTV and bTB, we find that the cost of any movement ban is more than the epidemiological benefits due to the low within-farm prevalence and slow rate of disease spread. This work suggests that movement controls need to be carefully matched to the epidemiological and economic consequences of the disease, and optimal movement bans are often far shorter than existing policy.

A network-based approach to modelling bluetongue spread in France

Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) was reported for the first time in Europe in 2006, causing the largest bluetongue outbreak ever recorded. France was mostly impacted in 2007/09. Trade restrictions were implemented all along. Vaccination became available from 2008: a limited number of doses was first administered in an emergency vaccination campaign, followed by two nationwide compulsory vaccination campaigns in 2009 and 2010. France regained a disease-free status in December 2012, but BTV may have kept circulating undetected as infected herds have been reported again since August 2015. We developed a stochastic dynamic compartmental model of BTV transmission in cattle and sheep to analyze the relative importance of vector active flight and host movements in disease spread, and assess the effectiveness of control measures. We represented BTV transmission both within and between French administrative subdivisions called cantons, during the 2007/09 outbreak and until the end of 2010, when compulsory vaccination was interrupted. Within-canton transmission was vector-borne, and between canton transmission could occur through three contact networks that accounted for movements of: (i) vectors between pastures located at close distance; (ii) cattle and sheep between pastures of the same farm; (iii) traded cattle. We estimated the model parameters by approximate Bayesian computation, using data from the 2007 French outbreak. With this framework, we were able to reproduce the BTV-8 epizootic wave. Host movements between distant pastures of the same farm were found to have a major contribution to BTV spread to disease-free areas, thus raising practical questions about herd management during outbreaks. We found that cattle trade restrictions had been well complied with; without them, the whole French territory would have been infected by winter 2007. The 2008 emergency vaccination campaign had little impact on disease spread as almost half vaccine doses had likely been administered to already immune cattle. Alternatively, establishing a vaccination buffer zone would have allowed a better control of BTV in 2008: limiting its spatial expansion and decreasing the number of infected cattle and sheep. We also showed a major role of compulsory vaccination in controlling the outbreak in 2009 and 2010, though we predicted a possible low-level circulation after the last detection.

Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

Towards a thermodynamic mechanistic model for the effect of temperature on arthropod vector competence for transmission of arboviruses

Arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), bluetongue virus (BTV), dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infect their arthropod vectors over a range of average temperatures depending on the ambient temperature. How the transmission efficiency of an arbovirus (i.e. vector competence) varies with temperature influences not only the short term risk of arbovirus outbreaks in humans and livestock but also the long term impact of climate change on the geographical range of the virus. The strength of the interaction between viral surface (glyco)protein (GP) and the host cell receptor (Cr) on binding of virus to host cell is defined by the thermodynamic dissociation constant K_{d_receptor} which is assumed to equal 10^-3 M (at 37 °C) for binding of a sialic acid (SA) on the arthropod midgut epithelial cell surface to a SA-binding site on the surface of BTV, for example. Here virus binding affinity is modelled with increasing number of GP/Cr contacts at temperatures from 10 °C to 35 °C taking into account the change in entropy on immobilization of the whole virus on binding (ΔS_{a_immob}). Based on published data, three thermodynamic GP/Cr binding scenarios, namely enthalpy-driven, entropy-assisted and entropy-driven, are shown to affect the temperature sensitivity of virus binding in different ways. Thus for enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding, viruses bind host cells much more strongly at 10 °C than 35 °C. A mechanistic model is developed for the number of arthropod midgut cells with bound virus and by building in a kinetic component for the rate of arbovirus replication and subsequent spread to the arthropod salivary glands, a model for the effect of temperature on vector competence is developed. The model separates the opposing effects of temperature on midgut cell binding affinity from the kinetic component of virogenesis. It successfully accommodates both increases in vector competence with temperature as for DENV and WNV in mosquitoes and decreases as for the CHIKV 2010-1909 strain in various populations of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Enhanced cell binding at lower temperatures through enthalpy-driven GP/Cr binding compensates for the lower replication rate to some degree such that some transmission can still occur at lower temperatures. In contrast, the strength of entropy-driven GP/Cr binding diminishes at low temperatures although there is no minimum temperature threshold for transmission efficiency. The magnitude of ΔS_{a_immob} is an important data gap. It is concluded that thermodynamic and kinetic data obtained at the molecular level will prove important in modelling vector competence with temperature.

Long-term shifts in the seasonal abundance of adult Culicoides biting midges and their impact on potential arbovirus outbreaks

Surveillance of adult Culicoides biting midge flight activity is used as an applied ecological method to guide the management of arbovirus incursions on livestock production in Europe and Australia.To date the impact of changes in the phenology of adult vector activity on arbovirus transmission has not been defined. We investigated this at two sites in the UK, identifying 150,000 Culicoides biting midges taken from 2867 collections over a nearly 40 year timescale.Whilst we recorded no change in seasonal activity at one site, shifts in first adult appearance and last adult appearance increased the seasonal activity period of Culicoides species at the other site by 40 days over the time period.Lengthening of the adult activity season was driven by an increase in abundance of Culicoides and correlated with local increases in temperature and precipitation. This diversity in responses poses significant challenges for predicting future transmission and overwintering risk. Policy implications. Our analysis not only shows a dramatic and consistent increase in the adult active period of Culicoides biting midges, but also that this varies significantly between sites. This suggests broad-scale analyses alone are insufficient to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate on arbovirus vector populations. Understanding the impact of climate change on adult Culicoides seasonality and transmission of arboviruses requires the context of changes in a range of other local ecological drivers.

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

A cross-sectional serosurvey in a sheep population in central Italy following a bluetongue epidemic

Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease that affects ruminants and is transmitted by midges of the genus Culicoides spp. The seroprevalence, the clinical form and the occurrence rates significantly differ in relation to several factors such as bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype, host species, breed susceptibility, specific previous exposure, vector ecology, husbandry and health status. Following the 2001-2006 BTV2 and BTV16 epidemics in central Italy, a new epidemic caused by BTV1 occurred in 2013-2015 causing 398 outbreaks in a susceptible population of about 1 million ruminants. The present study assessed the BTV1 seroprevalence in the sheep population of central Italy by conducting two cross-sectional surveys, in the proximity of and within BT outbreak farms. A total of 2,984 sheep from 437 farms were sampled. The animal-level prevalence was 19% (95% CI: 17-21%), the between-herd prevalence was 46% (95% CI: 41-51%) and the within-herd prevalence was 21% (95% CI: 16-26%). Risk factors were investigated by logistic regression models. Living on a farm where an outbreak occurred and the number of outbreaks in proximity of the farm were identified as risk factors, while herd size was identified as a protective factor. This study represents the first BT survey in southern Europe and reports valuable findings on BTV epidemiology. Despite intensive virus circulation, the estimated seroprevalences were low. The assessment of the population immunity level is crucial for defining an efficient vaccination strategy and for predicting the impact of future virus circulation. In view of the low seroprevalence detected albeit an extensive BTV1 circulation, the population immunity was likely to be inadequate in preventing new BTV1 epidemics. Moreover, considering the recurrent introduction of new serotypes from North Africa and the Balkans, the control of multi-serotype BTV infections will continue to present a challenge in the near future.

The influence of temperature and humidity on the flight activity of Culicoides imicola both under laboratory and field conditions

BACKGROUND

Insight into the factors that regulate the circadian host-seeking flight activity of Culicoides vectors (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) will be of importance to assess the risk of transmission of Culicoides-borne pathogens. This study aimed to determine the impact of temperature and humidity on the flight activity of Culicoides imicola Kieffer, and other livestock associated Culicoides species, under both laboratory and field conditions.

METHODS

Batches of 500 field-collected C. imicola females were acclimatized at a predetermined range of temperatures (10-29 °C) and relative humidity (34-85%). After acclimatization, these females, prompted by a light source, were allowed to escape through a transparent plastic funnel into a paper cup, where they were counted after an hour. Flight activity under field conditions was determined seasonally by hourly light trap collections done overnight at four sites near cattle.

RESULTS

Experiments conducted at various test conditions in the laboratory indicated that flight activity started at 13 °C. Peak in activity was observed between 16 °C to 18 °C, and temperatures above 20 °C seemingly inhibit flight. Under field conditions, a peak in numbers collected was observed immediately after sunset. With mean nocturnal temperatures below 19 °C, more than 74% of the Culicoides were collected within two to three hours after sunset. With mean nocturnal temperature above 19 °C, the peak in numbers at sunset was sustained until after midnight, with somewhat higher numbers collected after midnight once temperatures dropped below 20 °C. No peak in numbers was observed at dawn. Although very low numbers were collected during the day, which partly may have been a result of the collecting method, Culicoides were present throughout periods of 24 hours. Humidity seemed to play a minor role in the regulation of flight activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Abundance and species diversity results as obtained in this study indicated a high level of risk of virus transmission in the first hours following sunset. A strong relationship was found between host-seeking activity, and hence trap efficiency, and within limits, temperature. Light traps primarily measure flight activity and may as such underestimate adult abundance of C. imicola if deployed at temperatures outside thresholds of 16-20 °C.

Analysis of Five Arboviruses and Culicoides Distribution on Cattle Farms in Jeollabuk-do, Korea

Arthropod-borne viruses (Arboviruses) are transmitted by arthropods such as Culicoides biting midges and cause abortion, stillbirth, and congenital malformation in ruminants, apparently leading to economic losses to farmers. To monitor the distribution of Culicoides and to determine their relationship with different environmental conditions (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and altitude of the farms) on 5 cattle farms, Culicoides were collected during summer season (May-September) in 2016 and 2017, and analyzed for identification of species and detection of arboviruses. About 35% of the Culicoides were collected in July and the collection rate increased with increase in temperature and humidity. The higher altitude where the farms were located, the more Culicoides were collected on inside than outside. In antigen test of Culicoides against 5 arboviruses, only Chuzan virus (CHUV) (2.63%) was detected in 2016. The Akabane virus (AKAV), CHUV, Ibaraki virus and Bovine ephemeral fever virus (BEFV) had a positive rate of less than 1.8% in 2017. In antigen test of bovine whole blood, AKAV (12.96%) and BEFV (0.96%) were positive in only one of the farms. As a result of serum neutralization test, antibodies against AKAV were generally measured in all the farms. These results suggest that vaccination before the season in which the Culicoides are active is probably best to prevent arbovirus infections.

Simulation of the Transmission by Vectors of Bluetongue Disease and Analysis of the Control Strategy

Bluetongue disease is an infectious non-contagious disease of domestic and wild ruminants, transmitted by hematophagous insects of the genus Culicoides. In endemic areas the disease has a seasonal character, occurs usually in summer when the population of vectors is at its peak. Culicoides are active at temperatures in the range from 13oto 35oC. The replication of the virus stops when the environmental temperature is below 13oC. It has been reported that the temperature and humidity of the environment affect to a great extent the biology of the vector and the survival of the virus in the reservoirs. During the summer, the number of infected cattle and sheep is directly dependent on the density of the population of the vector, the length of vectors’ life-span, the temperature of the environment and by precipitation, the affi nity of the vector to different hosts, and the ability of the vector to locate the host. Bluetongue has been spreading worldwide due to climatic changes and increasing average daily temperatures. The seasonal occurrences of the disease and the climate change have conditioned the need for adopting new strategies. The stochastic SEIRD mathematical model has been developed in order to simulate the transmission of the Bluetongue virus through the susceptible ruminant population on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, as well as to investigate the effect of climatic factors on the vector population and the magnitude of a possible epizootia. Besides the effects of climatic factors, we have analyzed a number of different approaches in the control of the disease based upon the vaccination of ruminants and control of vectors.

Longitudinal monitoring of Culicoides in Belgium between 2007 and 2011: local variation in population dynamics parameters warrant cautious use of monitoring data

BACKGROUND

Several European countries suffered important economic losses during the past decade due to the emergence of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses. Both are viruses of veterinary importance and are spread by Culicoides spp. This triggered many European countries to start Culicoides population monitoring. Recently a one year monitoring study at 16 sites in Belgium revealed that important variation existed in Culicoides abundance and species diversity between collection sites. In order to analyze whether this variation is consistent over years, a detailed analysis of monitoring data collected at seven locations in Belgium between 2007 and 2011 was performed in this study. At all locations, biting midges were collected with OVI black light traps set-up in close proximity to livestock.

RESULTS

In total, 42 different Culicoides species were morphologically identified. Species of the subgenus Avaritia represented 83% of all collected midges. Nevertheless, important differences in species composition were found between sites. Furthermore, statistical differences between sites were found for the total and maximum annual abundance, showing that a consistent higher or lower number of Culicoides could be collected depending on the selected collection site. Yearly, up to 16 and 30-fold differences in total and maximum annual abundances between sites, respectively, were found. Also the month in which most Culicoides were collected varied greatly between years, both at local (from May to October) and country level [May (2008), June (2010), July (2009), August (2011), October (2007)]. Finally, the average vector-free period over all sites and years was 173 days and could roughly be defined between November and the end of April. Interestingly, important yearly variations of up to two months in the duration of the vector-free period were found between the studied collection sites. In contrast to the abundance parameters, no specific sites could however be identified where monitoring consistently showed shorter or longer vector-free periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our results show that the selection of collection sites for Culicoides monitoring, even in a small country such as Belgium, strongly influences abundance parameters and that yearly variation in seasonality occurs. This emphasizes that care should be taken when using such parameters in risk assessments for transmission of Culicoides-borne diseases and that more clear and strict guidelines for Culicoides monitoring should be considered when monitoring data are used for legislative purposes.

Vector competence of pre-alpine Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) for bluetongue virus serotypes 1, 4 and 8

Background

Bluetongue disease, caused by bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), appeared for the first time in the northern part of Europe in 2006, and subsequently rapidly spread causing severe economic losses to the farming industry. The implicated vectors of BTV in Europe are Culicoides species within the subgenus Avaritia (C. chiopterus, C. dewulfi, C. obsoletus and C. scoticus). Epidemiological data from Switzerland have shown that BTV, whose spread was eliminated at an early stage by vaccination campaigns, had not been circulating among livestock at higher altitudes where other species dominate the Culicoides fauna. In this study, we investigated the extent that Culicoides spp. prevailing at higher altitudes (mainly C. grisescens) can act as vectors for BTV.

Methods

Culicoides were collected at farms in the pre-alpine region (two sites at 1550 m above sea level, masl, referred to as pre-alpine I; one site at 2030 masl, pre-alpine II) and, for comparative purposes, from the Swiss Plateau (one site, 650 masl). They were fed on bovine blood/BTV suspensions (BTV-1, 4 or 8) and incubated for eight days under a fluctuating temperature regime (13–25 °C, mean 19 °C), reflecting a mid-summer warm spell in the pre-alpine region. Susceptibility to BTV transmission was assessed from head homogenates by RT-qPCR and virus isolation.

Results

Overall, 9196 female Culicoides were exposed to the three BTV strains through an artificial membrane, with feeding rates of 14–27%. Survival rates of blood-engorged Culicoides females at eight days post-infection depended on both virus serotype and altitude of origin. Virus dissemination (C_q ≤ the cut-off value as determined by serial virus dilutions) was confirmed only for BTV-1 in C. scoticus (dissemination efficiency 22.5%; 9/40) and C. obsoletus (5.6%; 1/18) from the Swiss Plateau area. There was no strong evidence of susceptibility to infection for Culicoides from the pre-alpine area when fed with all BTV strains (BTV-1, 4 and 8).

Conclusions

This study confirms the susceptibility of C. scoticus and C. obsoletus to BTV-1 infection, including under cooler temperatures. Culicoides grisescens, which is highly abundant at higher altitudes, cannot be considered a potential vector under these temperature conditions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3050-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Bluetongue transmission and control in Europe: A systematic review of compartmental mathematical models

The growing frequency of bluetongue virus (BTV) incursions in Europe in recent years led to the largest BTV outbreak ever recorded in 2006/09, with a dramatic impact on the cattle and sheep industries. The complex epidemiology of this vector-borne disease of ruminants and its recent emergence need to be better understood to identify and implement efficient control strategies. Mathematical models provide useful tools for that purpose; many of them have been developed in the light of the 2006/09 outbreak. We aimed to provide a systematic review of compartmental mathematical models dedicated to BTV occurrence or transmission in European countries, to assess robustness of findings to different modelling approaches and assumptions. We identified relevant papers from PubMed and Scopus databases, 21 of which were included in the review following the selection process laid out in the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. We systematically extracted data from these papers to address the diversity and evolution of modelling approaches, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. Then, we summarized the main insights provided into bluetongue epidemiology, and discussed the relevance of these models as tools for risk mapping and for the design of surveillance and control systems. On the whole, the mechanistic models reviewed provided flexible frameworks, yielding mostly epidemiological insights specific to geographical areas and study periods. Despite the limitations of these models that sometimes relied on strong assumptions, we advocate their use to facilitate and inform evidence-based decision-making in animal health.

Increased Relative Risk of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Warmer Weather

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a serious acute neuroinfection of humans caused by a tick-borne flavivirus. The disease is typically seasonal, linked to the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus (predominantly nymphs), the principal European tick vector species. To address the need for accurate risk predictions of contracting TBE, data on 4,044 TBE cases reported in the Czech Republic during 2001-2006 were compared with questing activity of I. ricinus nymphs monitored weekly at a defined location for the same 6-year period. A time shift of 21 days between infected tick bite and recorded disease onset provided the optimal model for comparing the number of cases of TBE with numbers of questing nymphs. Mean annual distribution of TBE cases and tick counts showed a similar bimodal distribution. Significantly, the ratio of TBE cases to questing nymphs was highest in the summer-autumn period even though the number of questing nymphs peaked in the spring-summer period. However, this pattern changed during a period of extreme meteorological events of flooding and abnormally high temperatures, indicating that changes in climate affect the incidence of TBE. Previous studies failed to link human behavior with changes in incidence of TBE but showed extrinsic temperature impacts arbovirus replication. Hence, we hypothesize the apparent discrepancy between peak nymphal tick activity and greatest risk of contracting TBE is due to the effect of temperature on virus replication in the tick vector. Relative proportions of questing nymphs and the numbers of weeks in which they were found were greater in summer-autumn compared with spring-summer at near-ground temperatures >5°C and at standard day and weekly average temperatures of >15°C. Thus, during the summer-autumn period, the virus dose in infected tick bites is likely greater owing to increased virus replication at higher microclimatic temperatures, consequently increasing the relative risk of contracting TBE per summer-autumn tick bite. The data support the use of weather-based forecasts of tick attack risk (based on daytime ambient temperature) supplemented with weekly average temperature (as a proxy for virus replication) to provide much-needed real-time forecasts of TBE risk.

Rethinking the extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites

The time it takes for malaria parasites to develop within a mosquito, and become transmissible, is known as the extrinsic incubation period, or EIP. EIP is a key parameter influencing transmission intensity as it combines with mosquito mortality rate and competence to determine the number of mosquitoes that ultimately become infectious. In spite of its epidemiological significance, data on EIP are scant. Current approaches to estimate EIP are largely based on temperature-dependent models developed from data collected on parasite development within a single mosquito species in the 1930s. These models assume that the only factor affecting EIP is mean environmental temperature. Here, we review evidence to suggest that in addition to mean temperature, EIP is likely influenced by genetic diversity of the vector, diversity of the parasite, and variation in a range of biotic and abiotic factors that affect mosquito condition. We further demonstrate that the classic approach of measuring EIP as the time at which mosquitoes first become infectious likely misrepresents EIP for a mosquito population. We argue for a better understanding of EIP to improve models of transmission, refine predictions of the possible impacts of climate change, and determine the potential evolutionary responses of malaria parasites to current and future mosquito control tools.