Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds

Data error propagation in stacked bioclimatic envelope models

Stacking is the process of overlaying inferred species potential distributions for multiple species based on outputs of bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). The approach can be used to investigate patterns and processes of species richness. If data limitations on individual species distributions are inevitable, but how do they affect inferences of patterns and processes of species richness? We investigate the influence of different data sources on estimated species richness gradients in China. We fitted BEMs using species distributions data for 334 bird species obtained from (1) global range maps, (2) regional checklists, (3) museum records and surveys, and (4) citizen science data using presence-only (Mahalanobis distance), presence-background (MAXENT), and presence-absence (GAM and BRT) BEMs. Individual species predictions were stacked to generate species richness gradients. Here, we show that different data sources and BEMs can generate spatially varying gradients of species richness. The environmental predictors that best explained species distributions also differed between data sources. Models using citizen-based data had the highest accuracy, whereas those using range data had the lowest accuracy. Potential richness patterns estimated by GAM and BRT models were robust to data uncertainty. When multiple data sets exist for the same region and taxa, we advise that explicit treatments of uncertainty, such as sensitivity analyses of the input data, should be conducted during the process of modeling.

DNA Barcode library of the endemic-rich avifauna of the oceanic islands of the Gulf of Guinea

Background

The BioSTP: DNA Barcoding of endemic birds from oceanic islands of the Gulf of Guinea dataset contains records of 155 bird specimens belonging to 56 species in 23 families, representing over 80% of the diversity of the breeding landbird community. All specimens were collected on Príncipe, São Tomé and Annobón Islands between 2002 and 2021 and morphologically identified to species or subspecies level by qualified ornithologists. The dataset includes all endemic species and 3/4 of the extant endemic subspecies of the islands. This dataset is the second release by BioSTP and it greatly increases the knowledge on the DNA barcodes of Gulf of Guinea birds. All DNA extractions are deposited at Associação BIOPOLIS - CIBIO, Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources.

New information

The dataset includes DNA barcodes for all 29 endemic bird species and for 11 of the 15 extant endemic bird subspecies from the oceanic islands of the Gulf of Guinea. This is the first major DNA barcode set of African birds. The three endemic subspecies of Crithagrarufobrunnea, an island endemic with three allopatric populations within the Archipelago, are also represented. Additionally, we obtained DNA barcodes for 16 of the 21 non-endemic landbirds and for one vagrant (Sylviacommunis). In total, forty-one taxa were new additions to the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD), with another 11 corresponding to under-represented taxa in BOLD. Furthermore, the submitted sequences were found to cluster in 55 Barcode Index Numbers (BINs), 37 of which were new to BOLD. All specimens have their DNA barcodes publicly accessible through BOLD online database and GenBank.

Forests are critically important to global pollinator diversity and enhance pollination in adjacent crops

Although the importance of natural habitats to pollinator diversity is widely recognized, the value of forests to pollinating insects has been largely overlooked in many parts of the world. In this review, we (i) establish the importance of forests to global pollinator diversity, (ii) explore the relationship between forest cover and pollinator diversity in mixed-use landscapes, and (iii) highlight the contributions of forest-associated pollinators to pollination in adjacent crops. The literature shows unambiguously that native forests support a large number of forest-dependent species and are thus critically important to global pollinator diversity. Many pollinator taxa require or benefit greatly from resources that are restricted to forests, such as floral resources provided by forest plants (including wind-pollinated trees), dead wood for nesting, tree resins, and various non-floral sugar sources (e.g. honeydew). Although landscape-scale studies generally support the conclusion that forests enhance pollinator diversity, findings are often complicated by spatial scale, focal taxa, landscape context, temporal context, forest type, disturbance history, and external stressors. While some forest loss can be beneficial to pollinators by enhancing habitat complementarity, too much can result in the near-elimination of forest-associated species. There is strong evidence from studies of multiple crop types that forest cover can substantially increase yields in adjacent habitats, at least within the foraging ranges of the pollinators involved. The literature also suggests that forests may have enhanced importance to pollinators in the future given their role in mitigating the negative effects of pesticides and climate change. Many questions remain about the amount and configuration of forest cover required to promote the diversity of forest-associated pollinators and their services within forests and in neighbouring habitats. However, it is clear from the current body of knowledge that any effort to preserve native woody habitats, including the protection of individual trees, will benefit pollinating insects and help maintain the critical services they provide.

Climate-driven variation in dispersal ability predicts responses to forest fragmentation in birds

Species sensitivity to forest fragmentation varies latitudinally, peaking in the tropics. A prominent explanation for this pattern is that historical landscape disturbance at higher latitudes has removed fragmentation-sensitive species or promoted the evolution of more resilient survivors. However, it is unclear whether this so-called extinction filter is the dominant driver of geographic variation in fragmentation sensitivity, particularly because climatic factors may also cause latitudinal gradients in dispersal ability, a key trait mediating sensitivity to habitat fragmentation. Here we combine field survey data with a morphological proxy for avian dispersal ability (hand-wing index) to assess responses to forest fragmentation in 1,034 bird species worldwide. We find that fragmentation sensitivity is strongly predicted by dispersal limitation and that other factors-latitude, body mass and historical disturbance events-have relatively limited explanatory power after accounting for species differences in dispersal. We also show that variation in dispersal ability is only weakly predicted by historical disturbance and more strongly associated with intra-annual temperature fluctuations (seasonality). Our results suggest that climatic factors play a dominant role in driving global variation in the impacts of forest fragmentation, emphasizing the need for more nuanced environmental policies that take into account local context and associated species traits.

High sensitivity of tropical forest birds to deforestation at lower altitudes

Habitat conversion is a major driver of tropical biodiversity loss, but its effects are poorly understood in montane environments. While community-level responses to habitat loss display strong elevational dependencies, it is unclear whether these arise via elevational turnover in community composition and interspecific differences in sensitivity or elevational variation in environmental conditions and proximity to thermal thresholds. Here we assess the relative importance of inter- and intraspecific variation across the elevational gradient by quantifying how 243 forest-dependent bird species vary in sensitivity to landscape-scale forest loss across a 3000-m elevational gradient in the Colombian Andes. We find that species that live at lower elevations are strongly affected by loss of forest in the nearby landscape, while those at higher elevations appear relatively unperturbed, an effect that is independent of phylogeny. Conversely, we find limited evidence of intraspecific elevational gradients in sensitivity, with populations displaying similar sensitivities to forest loss, regardless of where they exist in a species' elevational range. Gradients in biodiversity response to habitat loss thus appear to arise via interspecific gradients in sensitivity rather than proximity to climatically limiting conditions.

A new species of scops-owl (Aves, Strigiformes, Strigidae, Otus) from Príncipe Island (Gulf of Guinea, Africa) and novel insights into the systematic affinities within Otus

A new species of scops-owl (Aves, Strigiformes, Strigidae, Otus) is described from Príncipe Island, São Tomé and Príncipe (Gulf of Guinea, Africa). This species was discovered for science in 2016, although suspicions of its occurrence gained traction from 1998, and testimonies from local people suggesting its existence could be traced back to 1928. Morphometrics, plumage colour and pattern, vocalisations, and molecular evidence all support the species status of the scops-owl from Príncipe, which is described here as Otusbikegila sp. nov. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that this species descended from the first colonisation of the Gulf of Guinea islands, being sister to the clade including the mainland African Scops-Owl O.senegalensis, and the island endemics Sao Tome Scops-Owl O.hartlaubi and Pemba Scops-Owl O.pembaensis. The most diagnostic trait in the field is its unique call which, curiously, is most similar to a distantly related Otus species, the Sokoke Scops-Owl O.ireneae. The new species occurs at low elevations of the old-growth native forest of Príncipe, currently restricted to the south of the island but fully included within Príncipe Obô Natural Park. Otusbikegila sp. nov. takes the number of single-island endemic bird species of Príncipe to eight, further highlighting the unusually high level of bird endemism for an island of only 139 km².

A perspective on the expansion of the genetic technologies to support the control of neglected vector-borne diseases and conservation

Genetic-based technologies are emerging as promising tools to support vector population control. Vectors of human malaria and dengue have been the main focus of these development efforts, but in recent years these technologies have become more flexible and adaptable and may therefore have more wide-ranging applications. Culex quinquefasciatus, for example, is the primary vector of avian malaria in Hawaii and other tropical islands. Avian malaria has led to the extinction of numerous native bird species and many native bird species continue to be threatened as climate change is expanding the range of this mosquito. Genetic-based technologies would be ideal to support avian malaria control as they would offer alternatives to interventions that are difficult to implement in natural areas, such as larval source reduction, and limit the need for chemical insecticides, which can harm beneficial species in these natural areas. This mosquito is also an important vector of human diseases, such as West Nile and Saint Louis encephalitis viruses, so genetic-based control efforts for this species could also have a direct impact on human health. This commentary will discuss the current state of development and future needs for genetic-based technologies in lesser studied, but important disease vectors, such as C. quinquefasciatus, and make comparisons to technologies available in more studied vectors. While most current genetic control focuses on human disease, we will address the impact that these technologies could have on both disease and conservation focused vector control efforts and what is needed to prepare these technologies for evaluation in the field. The versatility of genetic-based technologies may result in the development of many important tools to control a variety of vectors that impact human, animal, and ecosystem health.

Avian species richness and tropical urbanization gradients: Effects of woodland retention and human disturbance

Urbanization is a major driver of tropical biodiversity loss. In temperate regions avian species richness-urbanization intensity relationships typically exhibit unimodal patterns, with peak richness at intermediate urbanization levels. In tropical regions, the form of such relationships and the extent to which they are moderated by patches of seminatural habitat are unclear. We address these questions in Bangkok, Thailand (one of the largest and most rapidly expanding tropical mega-cities) and generate conservation recommendations for tropical biodiversity in urban locations. We use repeated point count surveys at a random location, and the largest available woodland patch, in 150 1 km × 1 km grid cells selected along the urbanization gradient. Woodland patches support higher species richness compared with randomized locations (except for non-natives), and avian species richness declines linearly with increasing urbanization. The contrast with unimodal patterns in temperate regions is probably driven by divergent patterns of habitat heterogeneity along tropical and temperate urbanization gradients. Moreover, we provide novel evidence that retaining patches of urban woodland moderates adverse impacts of urbanization on avian species richness. For most species groups, the benefits of woodland increase as urbanization intensifies, despite such woodland patches being very small (mean of 0.38 ha). Avian species richness in woodland patches is maximized, and community composition less similar to that in randomized locations, when woodland patches are larger and visited by fewer people. Assemblages of forest-dependent species (which provide additional ecological functions) have higher richness, and are less similar to those in randomized locations, in patches of woodland with higher tree species richness and biomass. Finally, species richness in randomized sites is greatest when they are closer to woodland patches, and such assemblages more closely resemble those of woodland sites. Our work highlights four strategies for tropical urban bird conservation: (1) conserving woodland patches across the urbanization gradient regardless of patch size, (2) improving the quality of existing woodland by increasing tree biomass and diversity, (3) creating additional woodland that is well distributed throughout the urban area to minimize effects of habitat isolation and (4) reducing human disturbance, especially in areas of the highest habitat quality, while ensuring that the benefits of connecting people to nature are realized in other locations.

Biogeography of terrestrial vertebrates and its conservation implications in a transitional region in western Mexico

Conservation biogeography, which applies principles, theories, and analyses of biodiversity distribution patterns to address conservation challenges, can provide valuable insight and guidance to policy making for protection of biodiversity at multiple scales. The temperate and tropical ecosystems of the Nearctic-Neotropical transition in the small western state of Colima, Mexico, support a mosaic of remarkably diverse fauna and flora and provide a rare opportunity to determine spatial distribution patterns of terrestrial vertebrate species, assess human-induced threats, and identify potential conservation strategies. We analyzed the spatial distribution patterns and correlated them with the current land cover and extent of the protected areas. Despite its limited geographic extension, 29% (866) of all vertebrates, and almost a quarter of both endemic and threatened species in Mexico, live in Colima. Our analysis identified clear high-richness concentration sites (i.e., “hotspots”) coincident for all groups and that elevation and both temperate and tropical ecosystems composition exert significant influence on richness patterns. Furthermore, current species´ distribution also showed significant correlation with natural and disturbed landcover. Significant hotspots for all species groups coincided poorly with the limited protected areas in the state (only 3.8%). The current state of natural land cover (less than 16%) in the state, coupled with its remarkable biological importance, highlights the need for further complementary conservation efforts including expansion and creation of new protected areas, significant restoration efforts and other conservation measures to maintain this uniquely biogeographic and biological diverse region of the country.

Effects of landscape structure on restoration success in tropical premontane forest

Reversing large-scale habitat degradation and deforestation goes beyond what can be achieved by site-level ecological restoration and a landscape ecology perspective is fundamental. Here we assess the relative importance of tree cover and its configuration on forest-dependent birds and late-successional tree seedlings in restoration sites in southern Costa Rica. The abundance and species richness of birds increased in landscapes with more corridors, higher tree cover, and lower levels of fragmentation, highlighting the importance of riparian corridors for connectivity, and continuous tree cover as suitable habitat. Landscape variables affected abundance and species richness of seedlings similarly, but effects were weaker, possibly because seedlings face establishment limitation in addition to dispersal limitation. Moreover, the scale of landscape effects on seedlings was small, likely because proximal individual trees can significantly influence recruitment in restoration plots. Results underscore the importance of incorporating landscape-level metrics to restoration projects, as knowing the extent, and how the landscape may affect restoration outcomes can help to infer what kind of species will arrive to restoration plots.

Identifying priority areas for bat conservation in the Western Ghats mountain range, peninsular India

Understanding patterns of species distribution and diversity plays a vital role in biodiversity conservation. Such documentation is frequently lacking for bats, which are relatively little studied and often threatened. The Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in peninsular India is a bat hotspot with 63 species. We conducted a comprehensive bat survey across the southern Western Ghats and used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to model the potential distribution of 37 bat species for which sufficient data were available. We generated binary maps of each species using species-specific thresholds to estimate suitable habitat areas and overlaid binary maps of species to produce bat hotspots (we use the term “bat hotspot” for regions that were suitable for more than 25 bat species). We also estimated species richness across protected area networks in the southern Western Ghats to assess the level of protection. The highest levels of species richness were found mainly along the southmost Periyar–Agastyamalai landscape. The study also identified a 1,683 km2 area of potential bat hotspot and 726 km2 (43%) of the total bat hotspots are currently within the protected area network. However, more than 50% of suitable habitats for each of the 37 species remain unprotected. Therefore, conservation decisions are needed to take into account both bat hotspots and species with restricted distributions.

Patterns of forest cover loss in the terrestrial Key Biodiversity Areas in the Philippines: critical habitat conservation priorities

The Philippines, home to over 20,000 endemic species of plants and animals, is facing a biodiversity crisis due to the constant decrease of forest cover. The Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) approach was developed to conserve species threatened with extinction using a site-based conservation strategy to select globally important sites using threshold-based criteria for species irreplaceability and vulnerability. This study investigates the applicability of remotely sensed data through geospatial analysis to quantify forest cover loss of the 101 terrestrial KBAs in the country between 2001 and 2019. Results showed that the study sites had 4.5 million hectares (ha) of forest in the year 2000. However, these sites have lost about 270,000 ha of forest in nearly two decades, marking a steady decline with an annual deforestation rate of 14,213 ha per year in these terrestrial KBAs. The majority of the study sites (58) had a high percentage of forest loss (>3.13%), and these should be prioritized for conservation. By the year 2030, it is forecast that a total of 331 thousand ha of forest will be lost unless there is a transformational change in the country’s approach to dealing with deforestation. The results of this study provide relevant data and information in forest habitat in near real-time monitoring to assess the impact and effectiveness of forest governance and approaches within these critical habitats.

Influence of land use and host species on parasite richness, prevalence and co-infection patterns

Tropical forests are experiencing increasing impacts from a multitude of anthropogenic activities such as logging and conversion to agricultural use. These perturbations are expected to have strong impacts on ecological interactions and on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. To date, no clear picture of the effects of deforestation on vector-borne disease transmission has emerged. This is associated with the challenge of studying complex systems where many vertebrate hosts and vectors co-exist. To overcome this problem, we focused on an innately simplified system - a small oceanic island (São Tomé, Gulf of Guinea). We analyzed the impacts of human land-use on host-parasite interactions by sampling the bird community (1735 samples from 30 species) in natural and anthropogenic land use at different elevations, and screened individuals for haemosporidian parasites from three genera (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon). Overall, Plasmodium had the highest richness but the lowest prevalence, while Leucocytozoon diversity was the lowest despite having the highest prevalence. Interestingly, co-infections (i.e. intra-host diversity) involved primarily Leucocytozoon lineages (95%). We also found marked differences between bird species and habitats. Some bird species showed low prevalence but harbored high diversity of parasites, while others showed high prevalence but were infected with fewer lineages. These infection dynamics are most likely driven by host specificity of parasites and intrinsic characteristics of hosts. In addition, Plasmodium was more abundant in disturbed habitats and at lower elevations, while Leucocytozoon was more prevalent in forest areas and at higher elevations. These results likely reflect the ecological requirements of their vectors: mosquitoes and black flies, respectively.

Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon

In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belém endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called “Deforestation Arc.” Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belém Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The “Gurupi Mosaic” and the “Rio-Capim” watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.

Global conservation of species' niches

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive¹. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations^1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas⁴. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally^5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots⁹, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas^1,2.

Characterising the spatial distribution of opportunities and constraints for land sparing in Brazil

Brazil is a megadiversity country with more tropical forest than any other, and is a leading agricultural producer. The technical potential to reconcile these roles by concentrating agriculture on existing farmland and sparing land for nature is well-established, but the spatial overlap of this potential with conservation priorities and institutional constraints remains poorly understood. We mapped conservation priorities, food production potential and socio-economic variables likely to influence the success of land sparing. Pasture occupies 70% of agricultural land but contributes ≤11% of the domestic food supply. Increasing yields on pasture would add little to Brazil’s food supply but – if combined with concerted conservation and restoration policies – provides the greatest opportunities for reducing land demand. Our study illustrates a method for identifying municipalities where land-sparing policies are most likely to succeed, and those where further effort is needed to overcome constraints such as land tenure insecurity, lack of access to technical advice, labour constraints, and non-compliance with environmental law.

Measuring Terrestrial Area of Habitat (AOH) and Its Utility for the IUCN Red List

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species includes assessment of extinction risk for 98 512 species, plus documentation of their range, habitat, elevation, and other factors. These range, habitat and elevation data can be matched with terrestrial land cover and elevation datasets to map the species' area of habitat (AOH; also known as extent of suitable habitat; ESH). This differs from the two spatial metrics used for assessing extinction risk in the IUCN Red List criteria: extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). AOH can guide conservation, for example, through targeting areas for field surveys, assessing proportions of species' habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation. We recommend that IUCN Red List assessments document AOH wherever practical.

Effects of Protected Area Size on Conservation Return on Investment

The objective of this research is to examine how protected area size influences the conservation benefit and acquisition cost of creating a protected area, how the resulting effects influence the predicted rate of return on investment (ROI), and how those relationships change prioritization decision-making for selecting protected areas compared with decisions based only on conservation benefit and decisions based only on acquisition cost. The objective is accomplished in an econometric framework by analyzing the parcel-level acquisition cost and conservation benefit measured by the change in potential fragmentation patterns on the landscape resulting from protection. We focus on areas acquired by The Nature Conservancy in central and southern Appalachia, United States. As an indicator of the change in landscape fragmentation, we use a fragmentation statistic known as effective mesh size. Although the effect of protected parcel size on predicted ROI is inelastic, greater conservation effectiveness is obtained with larger protected parcels than with smaller ones on average. Protected parcel size influences parcels' rankings for protection more (less) when only the predicted change in effective mesh size of protected area (only the predicted acquisition cost per area) is used for prioritizing parcels than when the ranking of parcels is determined by the predicted ROI. These findings imply that, although protected parcel size is important, failure to prioritize using ROI could result in an inappropriate level of emphasis being given to protected parcel size than is warranted.

The extent and predictability of the biodiversity-carbon correlation

Protecting biomass carbon stocks to mitigate climate change has direct implications for biodiversity conservation. Yet, evidence that a positive association exists between carbon density and species richness is contrasting. Here, we test how this association varies (1) across spatial extents and (2) as a function of how strongly carbon and species richness depend on environmental variables. We found the correlation weakens when moving from larger extents, e.g. realms, to narrower extents, e.g. ecoregions. For ecoregions, a positive correlation emerges when both species richness and carbon density vary as functions of the same environmental variables (climate, soil, elevation). In 20% of tropical ecoregions, there are opportunities to pursue carbon conservation with direct biodiversity co-benefits, while other ecoregions require careful planning for both species and carbon to avoid potentially perverse outcomes. The broad assumption of a linear relationship between carbon and biodiversity can lead to undesired outcomes.

Insularity effects on bird immune parameters: A comparison between island and mainland populations in West Africa

Oceanic islands share several environmental characteristics that have been shown to drive convergent evolutionary changes in island organisms. One change that is often assumed but has seldom been examined is the evolution of weaker immune systems in island species. The reduction in species richness on islands is expected to lead to a reduced parasite pressure and, given that immune function is costly, island animals should show a reduced immune response. However, alternative hypotheses exist; for example, the slower pace of life on islands could favor the reorganization of the immune system components (innate vs. acquired immunity) on islands. Thus far, few island species have been studied and no general patterns have emerged. Here, we compared two immune parameters of birds from São Tomé and Príncipe islands to those of their close relatives at similar latitudes on the mainland (Gabon, West Africa). On islands, the acquired humoral component (total immunoglobulins) was lower for most species, whereas no clear pattern was detected for the innate component (haptoglobin levels). These different responses did not seem to arise from a reorganization of the two immune components, as both total immunoglobulins and haptoglobin levels were positively associated. This work adds to the few empirical studies conducted so far which suggest that changes in immune parameters in response to insularity are not as straightforward as initially thought.

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21^st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.

The collection of birds from São Tomé and Príncipe at the Instituto de Investigação Científica Tropical of the University of Lisbon (Portugal)

The former Instituto de Investigação Científica Tropical-IICT (Lisbon, Portugal), recently integrated into the University of Lisbon, gathers important natural history collections from Portuguese-speaking African countries. In this study, we describe the bird collection from the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe, which was fully taxonomically checked and georeferenced. The IICT bird collection contains 5598 specimens, of which 559 are from São Tomé and Príncipe, representing 85 taxa, including 19 endemic species and 13 endemic subspecies of birds. The specimens were collected between 1946 and 1973, although 43% of the records are from 1954 and 45% are from 1970. The geographic distribution of samples covers the whole territory, with a higher number of records from São Tomé than from Príncipe. The districts with highest number of records are Pagué (equivalent to Príncipe Island), and Água Grande and Mé-Zochi on São Tomé. Despite the relatively low number of specimens per taxon, the importance of the collection is considerable due to the high number of endemic and threatened species represented. Furthermore, it adds valuable information to the GBIF network, especially for a country whose two islands are each an Endemic Bird Area and for which substantial gaps in ornithological knowledge remain.

DNA Barcodes Confirm the Taxonomic and Conservation Status of a Species of Tree on the Brink of Extinction in the Pacific

The taxonomic status of a single island, narrow range endemic plant species from Palau, Micronesia (Timonius salsedoi) was assessed using DNA barcode markers, additional plastid loci, and morphology in order to verify its conservation status. DNA barcode loci distinguished T. salsedoi from all other Timonius species sampled from Palau, and were supported by sequence data from the atpB-rbcL intergenic spacer region. Timonius salsedoi was only known from two mature individual trees in 2012. Due to its extremely narrow range and population size, it had previously been recommended to be listed as Critically Endangered Status under three separate IUCN Criteria. In 2014 a second survey of the population following a typhoon revealed that the only two known trees had died suggesting that this species may now be extinct. Comprehensive follow up surveys of suitable habitat for this species are urgently required.

Geotechnology-Based Modeling to Optimize Conservation of Forest Network in Urban Area

Forest network development in urban areas faces the challenge from forest fragmentation, human-induced disturbances, and scarce land resources. Here, we proposed a geotechnology-based modeling to optimize conservation of forest network by a case study of Wuhan, China. The potential forest network and their priorities were assessed using an improved least-cost path model and potential utilization efficiency estimation. The modeling process consists of four steps: (i) developing species assemblages, (ii) identifying core forest patches, (iii) identifying potential linkages among core forest patches, and (iv) demarcating forest networks. As a result, three species assemblages, including mammals, pheasants, and other birds, were identified as the conservation targets of urban forest network (UFN) in Wuhan, China. Based on the geotechnology-based model, a forest network proposal was proposed to fulfill the connectivity requirements of selected species assemblages. The proposal consists of seven forest networks at three levels of connectivity, named ideal networks, backbone networks, and comprehensive network. The action priorities of UFN plans were suggested to optimize forest network in the study area. Additionally, a total of 45 forest patches with important conservation significance were identified as prioritized stepping-stone patches in the forest network development. Urban forest conserve was also suggested for preserving woodlands with priority conservation significance. The presented geotechnology-based modeling is fit for planning and optimizing UFNs, because of the inclusion of the stepping-stone effects, human-induced pressures, and priorities. The framework can also be applied to other areas after a sensitivity test of the model and the modification of the parameters to fit the local environment.

Synergies and trade-offs in achieving global biodiversity targets

After their failure to achieve a significant reduction in the global rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, world governments adopted 20 new ambitious Aichi biodiversity targets to be met by 2020. Efforts to achieve one particular target can contribute to achieving others, but different targets may sometimes require conflicting solutions. Consequently, lack of strategic thinking might result, once again, in a failure to achieve global commitments to biodiversity conservation. We illustrate this dilemma by focusing on Aichi Target 11. This target requires an expansion of terrestrial protected area coverage, which could also contribute to reducing the loss of natural habitats (Target 5), reducing human-induced species decline and extinction (Target 12), and maintaining global carbon stocks (Target 15). We considered the potential impact of expanding protected areas to mitigate global deforestation and the consequences for the distribution of suitable habitat for >10,000 species of forest vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and mammals). We first identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on remaining forests and then identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on forest vertebrates (considering aggregate suitable habitat for species). Expanding protected areas toward locations with the highest deforestation rates (Target 5) or the highest potential loss of aggregate species' suitable habitat (Target 12) resulted in partially different protected area network configurations (overlapping with each other by about 73%). Moreover, the latter approach contributed to safeguarding about 30% more global carbon stocks than the former. Further investigation of synergies and trade-offs between targets would shed light on these and other complex interactions, such as the interaction between reducing overexploitation of natural resources (Targets 6, 7), controlling invasive alien species (Target 9), and preventing extinctions of native species (Target 12). Synergies between targets must be identified and secured soon and trade-offs must be minimized before the options for co-benefits are reduced by human pressures.

Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change

Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.

Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation

Increasing agricultural productivity to 'close yield gaps' creates both perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation. Yield increases often have negative impacts on species within farmland, but at the same time could potentially make it more feasible to minimize further cropland expansion into natural habitats. We combine global data on yield gaps, projected future production of maize, rice and wheat, the distributions of birds and their estimated sensitivity to changes in crop yields to map where it might be most beneficial for bird conservation to close yield gaps as part of a land-sparing strategy, and where doing so might be most damaging. Closing yield gaps to attainable levels to meet projected demand in 2050 could potentially help spare an area equivalent to that of the Indian subcontinent. Increasing yields this much on existing farmland would inevitably reduce its biodiversity, and therefore we advocate efforts both to constrain further increases in global food demand, and to identify the least harmful ways of increasing yields. The land-sparing potential of closing yield gaps will not be realized without specific mechanisms to link yield increases to habitat protection (and restoration), and therefore we suggest that conservationists, farmers, crop scientists and policy-makers collaborate to explore promising mechanisms.

What motivates hunters to target exotic or endemic species on the island of São Tomé, Gulf of Guinea?

Hunting and invasive species are amongst the main causes of species extinctions on oceanic islands. On the island of São Tomé hunting of introduced mammals (monkeys, civets and pigs) and endemic bird species has contrasting effects in terms of conservation. Hunting of introduced mammals may benefit native fauna and flora but pressure on endemic birds poses a threat to some species. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 119 hunters to assess the relative importance of native and introduced prey species, gathering information on personal profiles, preference and practice, and hunters’ perceptions of trends in prey populations. Eleven species were hunted, including five invasive mammals and five endemic birds of high conservation importance. Based on species hunted, techniques used and final destination of the quarry we distinguished three groups of hunters, using cluster analyses: bird, monkey and feral-pig hunters. Bird hunters were all from urban areas but most pig hunters were rural. Monkey hunters were mostly rural workers but a small proportion were from urban areas. Bird and monkey hunters were primarily motivated by commercial gains but they also hunted for enjoyment and food. In general, hunting of mammals is an opportunistic activity that, if regulated, can be sustainable and contribute to mitigating the effects of invasive species on local fauna as well contributing to local livelihoods. Given the economic drivers involved in hunting of birds, intervention to reduce or eliminate this form of hunting will require enforcement of legislation and raising awareness of the issues involved.

Can REDD+ help the conservation of restricted-range island species? Insights from the endemism hotspot of São Tomé

REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through “Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation”. Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species.

Mapping global diversity patterns for migratory birds

Nearly one in five bird species has separate breeding and overwintering distributions, and the regular migrations of these species cause a substantial seasonal redistribution of avian diversity across the world. However, despite its ecological importance, bird migration has been largely ignored in studies of global avian biodiversity, with few studies having addressed it from a macroecological perspective. Here, we analyse a dataset on the global distribution of the world's birds in order to examine global spatial patterns in the diversity of migratory species, including: the seasonal variation in overall species diversity due to migration; the contribution of migratory birds to local bird diversity; and the distribution of narrow-range and threatened migratory birds. Our analyses reveal a striking asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, evident in all of the patterns investigated. The highest migratory bird diversity was found in the Northern Hemisphere, with high inter-continental turnover in species composition between breeding and non-breeding seasons, and extensive regions (at high latitudes) where migratory birds constitute the majority of the local avifauna. Threatened migratory birds are concentrated mainly in Central and Southern Asia, whereas narrow-range migratory species are mainly found in Central America, the Himalayas and Patagonia. Overall, global patterns in the diversity of migratory birds indicate that bird migration is mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. The asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres could not have easily been predicted from the combined results of regional scale studies, highlighting the importance of a global perspective.

A problem shared is a problem reduced: seeking efficiency in the conservation of felids and primates

Threats faced by mammalian species can be grouped into one of a handful of categories, such as habitat loss, unsustainable hunting and persecution. Insofar as they face common threats, diverse species may benefit from the same conservation intervention, thereby offering efficiencies in conservation action. We explore this proposition for primates and felids by examining coarse scale overlaps in geographical distributions, using IUCN Red List assessments of the primary threats posed to each species. A global analysis of primates and felids that face common threats reveals the greatest overlap is in Central and South Asia, where up to 14 primates and felids co-occur. More than 80% of the land where at least 1 threatened species of either primate or felid occurs also contains at least one threatened species of the other taxon, yet over 60% of these grid cells containing both threatened primates and felids lie outside Conservation International's hot spots. A review of IUCN Action Plans of the threats to felids and primates strongly supports the hypothesis that they are often the same and occur in the same place. In principle, steps to conserve big cats have the potential to benefit several species of threatened primates, and vice versa.