Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Exploration of anti-stress mechanisms in high temperature exposed juvenile golden cuttlefish (Sepia esculenta) based on transcriptome profiling

Sepia esculenta is a cephalopod widely distributed in the Western Pacific Ocean, and there has been growing research interest due to its high economic and nutritional value. The limited anti-stress capacity of larvae renders challenges for their adaptation to high ambient temperatures. Exposure to high temperatures produces intense stress responses, thereby affecting survival, metabolism, immunity, and other life activities. Notably, the molecular mechanisms by which larval cuttlefish cope with high temperatures are not well understood. As such, in the present study, transcriptome sequencing of S. esculenta larvae was performed and 1,927 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified. DEGs were subjected to functional enrichment analyses using the Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) databases. The top 20 terms of biological processes in GO and 20 high-temperature stress-related pathways in KEGG functional enrichment analysis were identified. A protein-protein interaction network was constructed to investigate the interaction between temperature stress-related genes. A total of 30 key genes with a high degree of participation in KEGG signaling pathways or protein-protein interactions were identified and subsequently validated using quantitative RT-PCR. Through a comprehensive analysis of the protein-protein interaction network and KEGG signaling pathway, the functions of three hub genes (HSP90AA1, PSMD6, and PSMA5), which belong to the heat shock protein family and proteasome, were explored. The present results can facilitate further understanding of the mechanism of high temperature resistance in invertebrates and provide a reference for the S. esculenta industry in the context of global warming.

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.

Strengthening Angel Shark Conservation in the Northeastern Mediterranean Sea

Angel sharks are among the most threatened species of sharks globally. Twenty-two species have been identified globally so far, with three species being present in the Mediterranean Sea: Squatina aculeata, Squatina oculata, and Squatina squatina. The Mediterranean populations of all three species have been assessed as Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to the steep decline of their populations as a result of their historical and current overexploitation by demersal fisheries. Therefore, currently there is an ongoing increasing effort for advancing the conservation of the species in the basin. Recently, in the context of the Regional Action Plan for Mediterranean Angel Sharks, the Aegean Sea and Crete have been identified as critical areas for all three species. This study provides the first predictive distribution map of the three angel shark species in the basin, while critical areas for the conservation of the species were identified through a systematic spatial conservation planning analysis. Our analysis revealed low overlapping between the existing MPA network and critical areas for the distribution of the species primarily in Greece and then Turkey, while 20% of the critical areas for the distribution of the species overlaps with Fisheries Restricted Areas of the region. This highlights the need for creating MPAs focusing on shark conservation within the Mediterranean that are currently completely absent. In addition, we provide policy recommendations that can secure better protection of angel sharks through the enforcement of the current legislations and the engagement of all relevant stakeholders.

Elevated seasonal temperature disrupts prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and promotes cellular apoptosis in the American oyster, Crassostrea virginica, in the Gulf of Mexico: a field study

One of the major impacts of climate change has been the marked rise in global temperature. Recently, we demonstrated that high temperatures (1-week exposure) disrupt prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and promote cellular apoptosis in the American oyster. In this study, we evaluated the effects of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) on tissue morphology, extrapallial fluid (EPF) conditions, heat shock protein-70 (HSP70), dinitrophenyl protein (DNP, an indicator of reactive oxygen species, ROS), 3-nitrotyrosine protein (NTP, an indicator of RNS), catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD) protein expressions, and cellular apoptosis in gills and digestive glands of oysters collected on the southern Texas coast during the winter (15 °C), spring (24 °C), summer (30 °C), and fall (27 °C). Histological observations of both tissues showed a notable increase in mucus production and an enlargement of the digestive gland lumen with seasonal temperature rise, whereas biochemical analyses exhibited a significant decrease in EPF pH and protein concentration. Immunohistochemical analyses showed higher expression of HSP70 along with the expression of DNP and NTP in oyster tissues during summer. Intriguingly, CAT and SOD protein expressions exhibited significant upregulation with rising seasonal temperatures (15 to 27 °C), which decreased significantly in summer (30 °C), leaving oysters vulnerable to oxidative and nitrative damage. qRT-PCR analysis revealed a significant increase in HSP70 mRNA levels in oyster tissues during the warmer seasons. In situ TUNNEL assay showed a significant increase in apoptotic cells in seasons with high temperature. These results suggest that elevated SST induces oxidative/nitrative stress through the overproduction of ROS/RNS and disrupts the antioxidant system which promotes cellular apoptosis in oysters.

Assessing climate change risks to the geographical distribution of grass species

There is extensive evidence showing the impact of climate change on the biology and biogeography of species. Adopting drought-tolerant plants to conserve water is a potential adaptation to reduce the consequences of climate change. Accordingly, it was hypothesized that climate change would not affect potential distributions of drought-tolerant species. Here, this hypothesis was tested to model the potential distribution of three drought-resistant plant. Here, the potential distribution of Agropyron cristatum, Agropyron desertorum, and Festuca arundinacea was studied in Iran under current and future climate conditions, using 10 species distribution models. Sixty-two climate change scenarios (19 global climate models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) were used to model the potential distribution of the three plants in Iran in the future. The three species have different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions, species morphological and physiological advancement. The three species showed different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions. Festuca arundinacea and Agropyron cristatum will, respectively, experience the most and least severe decline in suitable habitats in the next 50 years. This result is because decreased annual precipitation caused an increase in habitat suitability for A. cristatum, while the same variable had the opposite effect for A. desertorum and F. arundinacea. On the other hand, F. arundinacea grows on moist soils that decreased annual precipitation caused a decrease in habitat suitability. Also, our results have clearly shown that plant species drought-stress tolerant are not immune to climate change and their current distributions undergo significant changes as a result of the changing of climate.

Effects of elevated temperature on prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and redox status in the American oyster: Signaling pathways of cellular apoptosis during heat stress

Increasing seawater temperature affects growth, reproduction, development, and various other physiological processes in aquatic organisms, such as marine invertebrates, which are especially susceptible to high temperatures. In this study, we examined the effects of short-term heat stress (16, 22, 26, and 30 °C for 1-week exposure) on prooxidant-antioxidant homeostasis and redox status in the American oyster (Crassostrea virginica, an edible and commercially cultivated bivalve mollusk) under controlled laboratory conditions. Immunohistochemical and real-time quantitative PCR (qRT-PCR) analyses were performed to examine the expression of heat shock protein-70 (HSP70, a biomarker of heat stress), catalase (CAT, an antioxidant), superoxide dismutase (SOD, an antioxidant), dinitrophenyl protein (DNP, a biomarker of reactive oxygen species, ROS), and 3-nitrotyrosine protein (NTP, an indicator of reactive nitrogen species, RNS), in the gills and digestive glands of oysters. In situ TUNEL assay was performed to detect cellular apoptosis in tissues. Histological analysis showed an increase in mucus secretion in the gills and digestive glands of oysters exposed to higher temperatures (22, 26, and 30 °C) compared to control (16 °C). Immunohistochemical and qRT-PCR analyses showed significant increases in HSP70, DNP and NTP protein, and mRNA expressions in tissues at higher temperatures. Cellular apoptosis was also significantly increased at higher temperatures. Thus, heat-induced oxidative and nitrative stress likely occur due to overproduction of ROS and RNS. Interestingly, expression of CAT and SOD increased in oysters exposed to 22 and 26 °C, but was at or below control levels in the highest temperature exposure (30 °C). Collectively, these results suggest that elevated seawater temperatures cause oxidative/nitrative stress and induce cellular apoptosis through excessive ROS and RNS production, leading to inhibition of the antioxidant defense system in marine mollusks.

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large-scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North-East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature-dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985-2004 and 2081-2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature- and oxygen-dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities

Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade(-1) by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations' territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers' knowledge.

Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast

Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.

Quantifying Florida Bay habitat suitability for fishes and invertebrates under climate change scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.