Population aging and migrant workers: bottlenecks in tuberculosis control in rural China

Prospective cohort study on tuberculosis incidence and risk factors in the elderly population of eastern China

Background

Tuberculosis continues to be a significant public health concern in China, particularly among the elderly population. This study aimed to assess the risk factors of tuberculosis among elderly individuals in China through a cohort study, focusing on this high-risk population.

Methods

The population-based census was strategically designed to cover diverse regions and demographics across the city. The survey captured demographic and lifestyle information, as well as a clinical examination. Participants were prospectively followed up over a specified duration to monitor the incidence of tuberculosis cases.

Results

After a follow-up period of more than 7 years, 246 individuals developed tuberculosis, resulting in an incidence rate of 92.21 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 81.2-104.3). In multivariate analysis, the following factors were found to have significant associations with active tuberculosis. Increasing age correlated with a higher risk of active tuberculosis (AHR = 1.03 per 1-year increase in age, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04, P < 0.001). Males continued to have a higher risk compared to females (HR = 2.73, 95%CI: 2.08, 3.58, P < 0.001). Individuals with a normal Body Mass Index (BMI) faced nearly three times higher risk compared to their obese counterparts (HR = 2.87, 95 % CI: 1.51, 5.46, P = 0.001). Conversely, those with an underweight BMI had a ten-fold higher risk compared to the obese group (HR = 9.89, 95 % CI: 4.92, 19.85, P < 0.001). Elderly individuals who quit smoking had a 1.35-fold increased risk compared to non-smokers (HR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.12, 1.64, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Tuberculosis incidence among the elderly population in China remained alarmingly high. This finding emphasizes the urgent need for implementing proactive case detection measures specifically tailored to address the specific needs of this vulnerable demographic, particularly in individuals who are male, have a history of former or current smoking, and have a low BMI. Moreover, we must not underestimate the influence of former smoking on tuberculosis risk.

Population impact of fine particulate matter on tuberculosis risk in China: a causal inference

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested the potential association between air pollution and tuberculosis incidence, but this association remains inconclusive and evidence to assess causality is particularly lacking. We aimed to draw causal inference between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) and tuberculosis in China.

METHODS

Granger causality (GC) inference was performed within vector autoregressive models at levels and/or first-differences using annual national aggregated data during 1982-2019, annual provincial aggregated data during 1982-2019 and monthly provincial aggregated data during 2004-2018. Convergent cross-mapping (CCM) approach was used to determine the backbone nonlinear causal association based on the monthly provincial aggregated data during 2004-2018. Moreover, distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the causal effects.

RESULTS

GC tests identified PM2.5 driving tuberculosis dynamics at national and provincial levels in Granger sense. Empirical dynamic modeling provided the CCM causal intensity of PM2.5 effect on tuberculosis at provincial level and demonstrated that PM2.5 had a positive effect on tuberculosis incidence. Then, DLNM estimation demonstrated that the PM2.5 exposure driven tuberculosis risk was concentration- and time-dependent in a nonlinear manner. This result still held in the multi-pollutant model.

CONCLUSIONS

Causal inference showed that PM2.5 exposure driving tuberculosis, which showing a concentration gradient change. Air pollutant control may have potential public health benefit of decreasing tuberculosis burden.

Regional and epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis and treatment outcomes in West China

Objective

To understand the prevalence and treatment outcome of tuberculosis in a typically regional County from 2016 to 2021, so as to provide reference and basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in this area.

Methods

Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the population, time and location distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Dazhu County from 2016 to 2021. The incidence rates were compared by Chi-square test and trend test, time distribution combined with seasonal index analysis, and the test level was α = 0.05.

Results

A total of 2,899 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in Dazhu County from 2016 to 2021, with an average annual incidence rate of 44.29/100,000 and standardized reported incidence rate was 36.77/100,000, showing a downward trend year by year (χ2 trend = 124.629, p < 0.001). A total of 955 cases of pathogen positive were reported, showing an increasing trend year by year (χ2 trend = 59.773, p < 0.001). In terms of time distribution, the incidence rate was high in autumn and winter, and September and December were the peak of the disease in the whole year, and the overall trend increased first, then decreased and once again increased (F = 5.861, p < 0.05). In regional distribution, the highest annual average reported incidence rate was in concentrated population. The incidence rate of male was higher than female in population distribution. After standardization, the overall incidence rate increased from 34 to 45 years old (χ2 trend = 6963.101, p < 0.001), and decreased after 45 years old (χ2 trend = 1104.393, p < 0.001). The occupation distribution is mainly farmers (82.75%). The overall arrival rate and cure rate of patients showed an upward trend year by year (χ2 trend = 4.306, χ2 trend = 5.772, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in this regional county is decreasing year by year. Male patients are higher than female patients and have certain seasonal characteristics. Attention should be paid to male, older adult, farmers and other groups, and corresponding measures should be taken to strengthen the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis in high incidence areas.

A qualitative exploration of factors that influence the uptake of tuberculosis services by low-skilled migrant workers in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

Singapore relies heavily on migrant workers to build its country and harbours a relatively large population of these workers. Importantly, tuberculosis (TB) remains a pernicious threat to the health of these workers and in line with the United Nations High-Level Meeting in 2023, this paper aims to uncover the qualitative discourse facing migrant workers' uptake of TB services and provide policy recommendations to enable more equitable access to TB services for this population.

METHODS

In-depth interviews were carried out with the migrant worker population recruited from a non-governmental organisation in Singapore that serves migrant workers through the provision of primary healthcare services, counselling, and social assistance. Interviews stopped once thematic saturation was achieved and no new themes and subthemes were found.

RESULTS

A total of 29 participants were interviewed, including 16 Bangladeshis and 13 Chinese, aged between 22 and 54 years old, all worked in the construction sector. Four key themes emerged. They are (1) General TB knowledge: Misconceptions are prevalent, where we found that participants were aware of the disease but did not possess a clear understanding of its pathophysiology and associated health effects, (2) Contextual knowledge and perception of associated policies related to TB in Singapore: low awareness among migrant workers as participants' accounts depicted a lack of information sources in Singapore especially on issues related to healthcare including TB, (3) Attitude to towards TB: Motivation to seek treatment is underpinned by ability to continue working and (4) Stigma: mixed perception of how society views TB patients. The gaps identified in migrant workers' TB knowledge, their attitude towards the disease and their perception of the availability of TB-related services is despite Singapore's efforts to curb community spread of TB and its proactive initiatives to reduce the prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Our study illuminates the various aspects that policymakers need to home in on to ensure this vulnerable group is sufficiently supported and equitably cared for if they develop active TB during their stay in Singapore as they contribute to the nation's economy. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a window of opportunity to improve overall healthcare access for vulnerable groups in Singapore can be a starting point.

Global rural health disparities in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: State of the science

INTRODUCTION

Individuals living in rural communities are at heightened risk for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD), which parallels other persistent place-based health disparities. Identifying multiple potentially modifiable risk factors specific to rural areas that contribute to ADRD is an essential first step in understanding the complex interplay between various barriers and facilitators.

METHODS

An interdisciplinary, international group of ADRD researchers convened to address the overarching question of: "What can be done to begin minimizing the rural health disparities that contribute uniquely to ADRD?" In this state of the science appraisal, we explore what is known about the biological, behavioral, sociocultural, and environmental influences on ADRD disparities in rural settings.

RESULTS

A range of individual, interpersonal, and community factors were identified, including strengths of rural residents in facilitating healthy aging lifestyle interventions.

DISCUSSION

A location dynamics model and ADRD-focused future directions are offered for guiding rural practitioners, researchers, and policymakers in mitigating rural disparities.

HIGHLIGHTS

Rural residents face heightened Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) risks and burdens due to health disparities. Defining the unique rural barriers and facilitators to cognitive health yields insight. The strengths and resilience of rural residents can mitigate ADRD-related challenges. A novel "location dynamics" model guides assessment of rural-specific ADRD issues.

Tuberculosis in older adults: challenges and best practices in the Western Pacific Region

The Western Pacific has one of the fastest-growing older adult populations globally, and tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the foremost infectious causes of disease and death in the region. Older adults are at higher risk of TB due to immunosenescence, comorbidities, and increased institutionalisation. Atypical symptoms and reduced access to health services may delay care-seeking and TB diagnosis, while co-morbidity and increased risk of adverse drug reactions complicate TB treatment. Post-TB sequelae and socioeconomic challenges may decrease the quality of life after TB treatment completion. Despite their high disease burden and special challenges, there is a lack of regionally coordinated policies and guidelines to manage TB among older adults. Routine TB screening at aged-care facilities, age-friendly infrastructure and services, awareness of atypical TB features, integration of TB and non-communicable diseases services, and person-centred approaches to treatment support could improve TB management among older adults. Addressing these challenges and adopting the best practices identified should inform policy formulation and implementation.

Funding

This project was funded by 1) the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, with financial contributions from the Government of the Republic of Korea through the Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Government of Japan through the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and 2) NUS Start-up Grant. The funders had no role in the paper design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of data and in writing of the paper.

Patient adherence to tuberculosis treatment in the Indian subcontinent: systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative research

OBJECTIVES

How well patients adhere to their tuberculosis (TB) treatment influences their recovery and development of drug resistance, but influences on adherence are multiple and often competing. We synthesised qualitative studies from our setting in the Indian subcontinent to understand the dimensions and dynamics involved to help inform service provision.

DESIGN

Qualitative synthesis comprising inductive coding, thematic analysis and forming a conceptual framework.

DATA SOURCES

Medline (OVID), Embase (OVID), CINAHL (EBSCOHost), PsycINFO (EBSCOHost), Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane Library and Epistemonikos were databases searched on 26 March 2020 for studies published since 1 January 2000.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

We included reports in English from the Indian subcontinent that used qualitative or mixed-methodology designs and reported findings around adherence to TB treatment. Full texts meeting eligibility were sampled based on 'thickness' (the richness of the qualitative data reported).

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers used standardised methods to screen abstracts and code. Included studies were assessed for reliability and quality using a standard tool. Qualitative synthesis was performed by inductive coding, thematic analysis and developing conceptual framework.

RESULTS

Of 1729 abstracts screened from initial search, 59 were shortlisted for full-text review. Twenty-four studies that qualified as 'thick' were included in the synthesis. Studies were set in India (12), Pakistan (6), Nepal (3), Bangladesh (1) or in two or more of these countries (2). Of the 24 studies, all but one included people who were taking TB treatment (1 study included only healthcare providers), and 17 included healthcare workers, community members or both.We identified three themes: (1) personal influences on the people with TB include interconnections between their social role in the family unit, their own priorities in day-to-day living and their experience to date with the disease; (2) adherence is profoundly influenced by how individual healthcare providers interact with patients on treatment and address their needs; (3) adherence is influenced across communities by structural, social, economic and cultural factors related to treatment.

CONCLUSION

Staff in TB programmes require an understanding of the various competing influences on individuals undergoing treatment. Programmes need to have more flexible and people-centred approaches to service provision in order to achieve adherence, and thus improve treatment outcomes.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020171409.

Factors Associated with Medication Adherence in Elderly Individuals with Tuberculosis: A Qualitative Study

Methods

This qualitative study was conducted in two phases, using an integrative literature review and individual interviews. Studies were gathered without time restriction from MEDLINE databases, Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), Google Scholar, Scopus, and EMBASE, as well as national databases, including Scientific Information Database and Magiran. The findings of 38 studies that met the inclusion criteria were analyzed through the conventional content analysis method based on the ecological approach. After reviewing and forming the data matrix, purposive sampling was performed among healthcare professionals, elderly tuberculosis patients aged 60 and over, and family caregivers of elderly patients to conduct individual interviews. Data obtained from 20 interviews were analyzed using the directed content analysis method. After coding, the data from individual interviews were entered based on similarity and difference in the categories of data matrix obtained from the literature review.

Results

In general, the aforementioned codes were placed in four main categories, including individual factors (i.e., biological factors, affective-emotional factors, behavioral factors, cognitive factors, tuberculosis-related factors, and economic factors), interpersonal factors (i.e., patient's relationship with treatment team and family-related factors), factors related to healthcare service provider centers (i.e., medical centers' facilities and capacity building in healthcare service provider), and extraorganizational factors (i.e., social factors and health policymaking).

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that medication adherence in elderly patients with tuberculosis was a complex and multidimensional phenomenon. Therefore, society, policymakers, and healthcare providers should scrutinize the factors affecting medication adherence in this group of patients to plan and implement more effective interventions.

Application of the ARIMA Model in Forecasting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Anhui During COVID-19 Pandemic from 2021 to 2022

Objective

Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis is important for the rational allocation of health resources. In this study, we predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis by establishing the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and providing support for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

Registered tuberculosis(TB) cases from January 2013 to December 2020 in Anhui province were analysed using traditional descriptive epidemiological methods. Then we used the monthly incidence rate of TB from January 2013 through June 2020 to construct ARIMA model, and used the incidence rate from July 2020 to December 2020 to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. Ljung Box test, Akaike's information criterion(AICc), Bayesian information criterion(BIC) and Realtive error were used to evaluate the model fitting and forecasting effect, Finally, the optimal model was used to forecast the expected monthly incidence of tuberculosis for 2021 and 2022 to learn about the incidence trend.

Results

A total of 255,656 TB cases were registered. The reported rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2013 and lowest in 2020. The peak incidence was in March, Tongling (71.97/100,000), Chizhou (59.93/100,000), and Huainan (58.36/100,000) had the highest number of cases. The ratio of male to female incidence was 2.59:1, with the largest proportion of people being between 66 and 75 years old. The main occupation of patients was farmer. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model was the optimal model to forecast the incidence trend of TB.

Conclusion

Tongling, Chizhou, and Huainan should strengthen measures for TB. In particular, the government should pay more attention on elderly people to prevent tuberculosis infections. The rate of TB patient registration and reporting has decreased under the pandemic of COVID-19. The ARIMA model can be a useful tool for predicting future TB cases.

How to Effectively Identify Patients With Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis in China: Perspectives of Stakeholders Among Service Providers

To evaluate China's current rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) screening strategy from stakeholders' perspectives, the perceptions, attitudes, and interests of 245 stakeholders from three eastern, central, and western China provinces on RR-TB screening strategies, were investigated through stakeholder survey and interview. The attitudes toward three RR-TB screening strategies were statistically different: inclination to choose who to screen (Z = 98.477; P < 0.001), funding for rapid diagnostic technology screening either by reimbursed health insurance or directly subsidized financial assistance (Z = 4.142, P < 0.001), and respondents' attitude during RR-TB screening implementation levels (Z = 2.380, P = 0.017). In conclusion, RR-TB screening scope could be expanded by applying rapid diagnostic technologies. Provinces with different economic status could adjust their screening policies accordingly.

Impacts of a comprehensive tuberculosis control model on the quality of clinical services and the financial burden of treatment for patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis in China: a mixed-methods evaluation

Background

The China National Health Commission-Gates TB Project Phase III implemented a comprehensive TB control model including multiple interventions to address the burden of drug-resistant TB (DRTB). This study aims to evaluate the quality of DRTB clinical services and assess the financial burden of DRTB patients during the intervention period.

Methods

A mixed-methods approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in the three project provinces: Zhejiang, Jilin and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The quantitative data included de-identified DRTB registry data during 2015–2018 in project provinces from China CDC, medical records of DRTB patients registered in 2018 (n = 106) from designated hospitals, and a structured DRTB patient survey in six sample prefectures in 2019. The quality of clinical services was evaluated using seven indicators across patient screening, diagnosis and treatment. Logistic regression was conducted to explore factors associated with the extremely high financial burden. Semi-structured in-depth interviews with policymakers and focus group discussions with physicians and DRTB patients were conducted to understand the interventions implemented and their impacts.

Results

The percentage of bacterially confirmed patients taking a drug susceptibility test (DST) increased significantly between 2015 and 2018: from 57.4 to 93.6% in Zhejiang, 12.5 to 86.5% in Jilin, and 29.7 to 91.4% in Ningxia. The treatment enrollment rate among diagnosed DRTB patients also increased significantly and varied from 73 to 82% in the three provinces in 2018. Over 90% of patients in Zhejiang and Jilin and 75% in Ningxia remained in treatment by the end of the first six months’ treatment. Among all survey respondents 77.5% incurred extremely high financial burden of treatment. Qualitative results showed that interventions on promoting rapid DST technologies and patient referral were successfully implemented, but the new financing policies for reducing patients’ financial burden were not implemented as planned.

Conclusions

The quality of DRTB related clinical services has been significantly improved following the comprehensive interventions, while the financial burden of DRTB patients remains high due to the delay in implementing financing policies. Stronger political commitment and leadership are required for multi-channel financing to provide additional financial support to DRTB patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00832-5.

Health education services utilization and its determinants among migrants: a cross-sectional study in urban-rural fringe areas of Beijing, China

Background

Domestic migration poses a challenge for China as migrants have little access to preventive healthcare services and are vulnerable to certain risks and diseases. This research sought to unveil and explore the determinant factors associated with health education utilization as a key aspect in basic public health services for migrants in Beijing, China.

Methods

A sample of 863 inter-provincial migrants, 18 years old and above, was selected by three-stage stratified cluster sampling method in urban-rural fringe areas of Beijing during 2016 to 2017. Face-to-face structured interviews were conducted in the questionnaire survey. The effects of the explanatory variables on health education utilization from predisposing, enabling, health behaviors and need variables were used to demonstrate by Anderson health service utilization model.

Results

The study revealed that 61.6% migrants desired to receive health education, while only 53.8% of them received in the past year. There were differences in the utilization and needs of health education among the migrants in different ages and genders. Many migrants desired to gain access to various types of health education information from the internet. Chi-square independence test lists such major determinant factors in migrants whole health education as age, “Hukou” registration system, marital status, education level, long-term residence plan in Beijing, one or more children in Beijing, employment status, housing source, average daily working time, exercises, health knowledge, smoking, self-rated health. The binary logistic regression indicates that the migrants with younger age, high education level, one or more children in Beijing, exercises and good self-rated health were more likely to receive whole health education. The results also show that average daily working time of enabling variables and exercise of health behavior variables were the strong and consistent determinants of three types of health education utilization, including communicable, non-communicable and occupational diseases.

Conclusion

Gaps exist between the needs and utilization in health education and more attention should be given to the migrants with heavy workload and low education level. Feasible policies and measures, such as multiple health information channels, should be vigorously implemented to ensure equitable and easy access to health education for migrants.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01368-1.

Primary Drug-Resistance Pattern and Trend in Elderly Tuberculosis Patients in Shandong, China, from 2004 to 2019

BACKGROUND

With an aging population, China is facing a huge burden of elderly patients with drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), which has become a significant obstacle for the global TB control. There is still little study on DR-TB in the elderly in China so far. Thus, more research on the epidemiological characteristics and trend of primary DR-TB among the elderly will be necessary.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted in Shandong, China from 2004 to 2019. We collected 12,661 primary TB cases, of which 4368 elderly (≥60 years) primary TB cases were involved. Clinical characteristics including age, sex, cavity, smoking, drinking, comorbidity and drug susceptibility data were collected from 36 TB prevention and control institutions of Shandong Province. Sputum samples were collected by each surveillance site, and examined in the TB Reference Laboratory of SPCH. Descriptive statistical analysis, chi-square and linear regression were used for analyzing.

RESULTS

Among 4368 elderly patients with primary TB, the DR-TB and multi-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) accounted for 17.19% and 2.29%, respectively. During 2004-2019, the proportions of MDR-TB, polydrug resistant tuberculosis (PDR-TB), rifampin (RFP)-resistance increased by 160.00%, 18.18%, 231.82%, respectively and the rate of DR-TB among elderly patients with primary cavitary TB increased by 255%. Among the elderly with primary DR-TB during 2004-2019, the proportion of male (from 85.19 to 89.06), cavity (from 7.41 to 46.88), RFP-resistance (from 3.70 to 21.88), and streptomycin (SM)-resistance (from 37.04 to 62.5) increased significantly (P<0.05). And the proportion of female (from 14.81 to 10.94), non-cavity (from 92.59 to 32.81), INH-resistance (from 66.67 to 57.81) decreased significantly (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Among the elderly, the proportions of MDR-TB, PDR-TB, RFP-resistance and cavitary DR-TB increased significantly. The pattern of DR-TB changed from female, non-cavity and INH-resistant groups to male, cavity, RFP or SM-resistant groups. For a better control on the elderly DR-TB in the future, we should pay more attention to male, smoking, drinking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes subgroups and take targeted measures to control these subgroups.

Seasonal variation in notified tuberculosis cases from 2014 to 2018 in eastern China

Objective

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence shows a seasonal trend. The purpose of this study was to explore seasonal trends in TB cases in Jiangsu Province.

Methods

TB case data were collected from the TB registration system from 2014 to 2018. The X12-ARIMA model was used to adjust the Jiangsu TB time series. Analysis of variance was used to compare TB seasonal amplitude (SA) between subgroups and identify factors responsible for seasonal variation.

Results

The TB incidence in Jiangsu showed a seasonal trend. Confirmed active TB peaked in March and reached a minimum in February. The amplitude of the peak-to-bottom difference was 38.15%. The SAs in individuals 7 to 17 years old (80.00%) and students (71.80%) were significantly different than those in other subgroups. Among bacterial culture positive individuals, the SAs among female patients, individuals aged 7 to 17 years and students were significantly different from those in the reference group. Among culture-negative patients, the SA among individuals aged 7 to 17 years was significantly different those in other subgroups.

Conclusions

The TB incidence in Jiangsu Province displayed a seasonal trend. Factors related to seasonal variation were age and occupation. Our results highlight the importance of controlling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission during winter.

What causes high costs for rural tuberculosis inpatients? Evidence from five counties in China

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) still causes high economic burden on patients in China, especially for rural patients. Our study aims to explore the risk factors associated with the high costs for TB inpatients in rural China from the aspects of inpatients' socio-demographic and institutional attributes.

METHODS

Generalized linear models were utilized to investigate the factors associated with TB inpatients' total costs and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures. Quantile regression (QR) models were applied to explore the effect of each factor across the different costs range and identify the risk factors of high costs.

RESULTS

TB inpatients with long length of stay and who receive hospitalization services cross provincially, in tertiary and specialized hospitals were likely to face high total costs and OOP expenditures. QR models showed that high total costs occurred in Dingyuan and Funan Counties, but they were not accompanied by high OOP expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

Early diagnosis, standard treatment and control of drug-resistant TB are still awaiting for more efforts from the government. TB inpatients should obtain medical services from appropriate hospitals. The diagnosis and treatment process of TB should be standardized across all designated medical institutions. Furthermore, the reimbursement policy for migrant workers who suffered from TB should be ameliorated.

Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangsu Province of China using advanced statistical time-series analyses

Objective

Forecasting the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis is important for the rational allocation of health resources; however, this foresting is often hampered by inappropriate prediction methods. In this study, we performed validation research by comparing the accuracy of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model in a southeastern province of China.

Methods

We applied the data from 462,214 notified pulmonary tuberculosis cases registered from January 2005 to December 2015 in Jiangsu Province to modulate and construct the ARIMA and BPNN models. Cases registered in 2016 were used to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error rate (MER) were used to evaluate the model fitting and forecasting effect.

Results

During 2005–2015, the annual pulmonary tuberculosis notification rate in Jiangsu Province was 56.35/100,000, ranging from 40.85/100,000 to 79.36/100,000. Through screening and comparison, the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ and BPNN (3-9-1) were defined as the optimal fitting models. In the fitting dataset, the RMSE, MAPE, MAE and MER were 0.3901, 6.0498, 0.2740 and 0.0608, respectively, for the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model, 0.3236, 6.0113, 0.2508 and 0.0587, respectively, for the BPNN model. In the forecasting dataset, the RMSE, MAPE, MAE and MER were 0.1758, 4.6041, 0.1368 and 0.0444, respectively, for the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model, and 0.1382, 3.2172, 0.1018 and 0.0330, respectively, for the BPNN model.

Conclusion

Both the ARIMA and BPNN models can be used to predict the seasonality and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Chinese population, but the BPNN model shows better performance. Applying statistical techniques by considering local characteristics may enable more accurate mathematical modeling.

APACHE-II score for anti-tuberculosis tolerance in critically ill patients: a retrospective study

Background

To investigate the status of anti-tuberculosis treatment in critically ill patients, and to explore the value of APACHE-II score in guiding anti-tuberculosis treatment.

Methods

This analysis included critically ill patients with tuberculosis. The utility of APACHE-II score for predicting drug withdrawal was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

Among 320 patients enrolled (58 ± 22 years; 256 males), 147 (45.9%) had drugs withdrawn. The drug withdrawal group had higher APACHE-II score (median [interquartile range]: 21 [3–52] vs. 17 [4–42] points), higher CD4%, lower hemoglobin level, higher rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic renal failure, and lower rate of extrapulmonary tuberculosis (P < 0.05). Logistic regression identified APACHE-II score > 18 (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.099 [1.321–3.334], P < 0.01), COPD (1.913 [1.028–3.561], P < 0.05) and hemoglobin level (0.987 [0.977–0.997], P < 0.05) as independent factors associated with drug withdrawal. At an optimal cutoff of 18.5, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of APACHE-II score for predicting drug withdrawal was 59.2, 61.8, 56.9 and 64.1%, respectively.

Conclusions

APACHE-II score > 18 points might predict patient tolerance of anti-tuberculosis treatment.

Trend in risk of delay in diagnosis of new pulmonary tuberculosis in Northwest China from 2008 to 2017

Background

With great changes over the past 10 years in China, especially the rapid economic development, population mobility, urbanization and aging, dynamic change on risk of delay, to our knowledge, has not been well studied in China. The study was to explore risk of delay in diagnosis of new pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and dynamic changes in risk of delay in Northwest China.

Methods

From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017, a total of 13,603 people with new PTB registered in Yulin city of Shaanxi province were included. The median delay time was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Time delay curves of year-, gender-year-, age-year- and smear-year specific were examined using log-rank test. Two-level mixed-effects survival model was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for factors associated with diagnostic delay. Time delay was defined as time interval between the onset of PTB symptoms and being diagnosed. The outcome variable of interest was defined as “being diagnosed” in survival analysis.

Results

The 10-year delay time was 33 days (Interquartile Range, 16–65). Annual median delay time gradually decreased from 60 days to 33 days during the past 10 years. The probability that individuals were diagnosed since onset of PTB symptoms increased by 1.29 times in 2017 when compared to 2008. Female (Hazard Ratio (HR), 95%CI, 0.95(0.91–0.99)), age>45 years (HR, 95%CI, 0.87(0.82–0.93)) and smear positive (HR, 95%CI, 0.86(0.78–0.95)) were associated with increased risk of diagnostic delay over 10-year timespan. However, Age>45 years and smear positive showed trend to be protective factors in the past 5 years.

Conclusions

Time and risk of delay in diagnosis of new PTB had declined over the past 10 years. However, more attentions should be paid to the fact that female still suffered from higher risk of diagnostic delay. We noted a potential reversal in traditional risk factors such as age>45 and smear positive. Those dynamic changes deserved further attention.

Prevalence and risk factors of active pulmonary tuberculosis among elderly people in China: a population based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The problem of population aging is a critical public health concern in modern China, and more tuberculosis (TB) control efforts are needed to reach elderly people at high priority. In this study, we aim to determine the prevalence and identify the risk factors of TB among elderly people in China.

METHODS

A multistage cluster-sampled cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2013, and 27 clusters were selected from 10 counties of 10 provinces in China. All consenting participants greater than or equal to 65 years of age were screened for pulmonary TB with a chest X-ray (CXR) and a symptom questionnaire. Three sputum specimens for bacteriological examination by microscopy and culture were collected from those whose screening was positive. Prevalence was calculated, a multiple logistic regression model was performed to confirm the risk factors, and population attributable fraction (PAF) of each risk factor was calculated to indicate the public health significance.

RESULTS

Of 38 888 eligible people from 27 clusters, 34 269 participants finished both questionnaire and physical examination. There were 193 active pulmonary TB cases, 62 of which were bacteriologically confirmed. The estimated prevalence of active pulmonary TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB in those 65 years of age and older was 563.19 per 100 000 (95% CI: 483.73-642.65) and 180.92 per 100 000 (95% CI: 135.89-225.96), respectively. Male sex, older age, living in rural areas, underweight, diabetes, close contact of pulmonary TB (PTB) and previous TB history are all risk factors for TB. The risk of TB increased with increasing age and decreasing body mass index (BMI) after adjusting for other factors, and there is a positive dose-response relationship.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, active case finding (ACF) could be implemented among elderly people aged 65 and above with underweight, diabetes, close contact history and previous TB history as a priority, which will get significant yields and be cost-effective.

Surgical release for tubercular elbow stiffness

Background

For decades, tuberculosis (TB) has posed a great threat to people worldwide. Bone and joint TB is one of the most common types of extrapulmonary TB, with elbow TB comprising a small proportion of these cases. The treatment for elbow stiffness associated with TB has been rarely reported.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively analyzed six patients (four females and two males) with tubercular elbow stiffness during a 7-year period. All of them received open arthrolysis and hinged external fixation to restore functional extension, flexion, supination and pronation. Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS) and range of motion (ROM) were evaluated preoperatively and at final follow-up.

Results

At final follow-up after surgery, we evaluated the average active ROM, which was 111.7° (90°–135°). The average extension was 11.7° (0°–30°), while the average flexion was 123.3° (115°–135°). At the same time, the average supination was increased to 70° (40°–90°) and the average pronation was increased to 68.3° (45°–80°). The MEPS was elevated to 92.5 (85–100). Three patients displayed complications and were treated and cured with dressing changes and antibiotics.

Conclusion

Open arthrolysis and hinged external fixation are useful for the treatment of non-traumatic elbow stiffness with TB.

Migrant tuberculosis patient needs and health system response along the Thailand-Myanmar border

This article aims to identify how the health system in Tak province, Thailand has responded to migrants' barriers to tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Our qualitatively driven multi-methods project utilized focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and a survey of community health volunteers to collect data in 2014 from multiple perspectives. Migrants identified legal status and transportation difficulties as the primary barriers to seeking TB treatment. Lack of financial resources and difficulties locating appropriate and affordable health services in other Thai provinces or across the border in Myanmar further contributed to migrants' challenges. TB care providers responded to barriers to treatment by bringing care out into the community, enhancing patient mobility, providing supportive services, and reaching out to potential patients. Interventions to improve migrant access and adherence to TB treatment necessarily extend outside of the health system and require significant resources to expand equitable access to treatment. Although this research is specific to the Thailand-Myanmar border, we anticipate that the findings will contribute to broader conversations around the inputs that are necessary to address disparities and inequities. Our study suggests that migrants need to be provided with resources that help stabilize their financial situation and overcome difficulties associated with their legal status in order to access and continue TB treatment.

Tuberculosis infection in rural labor migrants in Shenzhen, China: Emerging challenge to tuberculosis control during urbanization

During China’s urbanization process, rural labor migrants have been suggested to be one important bridge population to change urban-rural distribution on tuberculosis (TB) burden. Aiming to estimate the prevalence of TB infection and to track the active disease development in rural labor migrants, a prospective study was conducted in Shenzhen city, southern China. TB infection was detected using interferon-γ release assay (IGRA). Here we mainly report the characteristics of TB infection in the study population based on the baseline survey. A total of 4,422 eligible participants completed baseline survey in July 2013. QuantiFERON (QFT) positivity rates 17.87% (790/4,422) and was found to be consistent with the local TB epidemic of the areas where the participants immigrated from. Age, smoking, residence registered place, and present of BCG scars were found to be independently associated with QFT positivity. Additionally, evidence for interaction between smoking and age was observed (p for likelihood ratio test < 0.001). Our results suggested that the development of TB control strategy including latent TB infection management should pay more attention to the rural flowing population due to their high mobility and higher prevalence of TB infection.

Financial barriers and coping strategies: a qualitative study of accessing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and tuberculosis care in Yunnan, China

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistance tuberculosis (MDR-TB) pose serious challenges to global health, particularly in China, which has the second highest case burden in the world. Disparities in access to care for the poorest, rural TB patients may be exacerbated for MDR-TB patients, although this has not been investigated widely. We examine whether certain patient groups experience different barriers to accessing TB services, whether there are added challenges for patients with MDR-TB, and how patients and health providers cope in Yunnan, a mountainous province in China with a largely rural population and high TB burden.

METHODS

Using a qualitative study design, we conducted five focus group discussions and 47 in-depth interviews with purposively sampled TB and MDR-TB patients and healthcare providers in Mandarin, between August 2014 and May 2015. Field-notes and interview transcripts were analysed via a combination of open and thematic coding.

RESULTS

Patients and healthcare providers consistently cited financial constraints as the most common barriers to accessing care. Rural residents, farmers and ethnic minorities were the most vulnerable to these barriers, and patients with MDR-TB reported a higher financial burden owing to the centralisation and longer duration of treatment. Support in the form of free or subsidised treatment and medical insurance, was deemed essential but inadequate for alleviating financial barriers to patients. Most patients coped by selling their assets or borrowing money from family members, which often strained relationships. Notably, some healthcare providers themselves reported making financial and other contributions to assist patients, but recognised these practices as unsustainable.

CONCLUSIONS

Financial constraints were identified by TB and MDR-TB patients and health care professionals as the most pervasive barrier to care. Barriers appeared to be magnified for ethnic minorities and patients coming from rural areas, especially those with MDR-TB. To reduce financial barriers and improve treatment outcomes, there is a need for further research into the total costs of seeking and accessing TB and MDR-TB care. This will enable better assessment and targeting of appropriate financial support for identified vulnerable groups and geographic development of relevant services.

Delays and Pathways to Final Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Patients from a Referral Hospital in Urban China

AbstractChina is among the countries with the largest epidemic of drug susceptible and resistant tuberculosis globally. We investigated the locations tuberculosis patients visited before being diagnosed, total diagnostic delay, and risk factors associated with total delay from a large tuberculosis referral hospital in Nanjing, China. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among tuberculosis patients who initiated anti-tuberculosis treatment within 3 months prior to the study date. Patient information regarding time and locations visited while seeking care for tuberculosis-related symptoms was collected through face-to-face interviews. Crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios of factors associated with time to diagnosis were calculated. Of 179 bacteriologically confirmed patients, 37% were women and median age was 41 (interquartile range [IQR], 26-62). Public hospitals were the most commonly visited health-care institution and repeated visits to them were common. The mean days to tuberculosis diagnosis were 50.3. Female patients (hazard ratio [HR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.48) or patients who contacted a health-care provider 2 weeks after becoming symptomatic (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.43-1.70) were significantly less likely to have a timely diagnosis. In a referral hospital in urban China, we found that female tuberculosis patients took significantly more time to reach diagnosis than males and patients often cycled in public hospitals for multiple visits before reaching final diagnosis. Health professionals at public hospitals in Nanjing should be encouraged to refer potential tuberculosis patients as soon as possible to avoid nosocomial transmission.

Registration and management of community patients with tuberculosis in north-west China

OBJECTIVES

To describe the registration, management and characteristics of patients with tuberculosis (TB) in north-west China, and investigate whether patients with TB were diagnosed and treated in a timely manner.

STUDY DESIGN

Health-facility-based retrospective data were collected from district patient registers and case reports for all patients with TB registered from January 2009 to December 2011 in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, north-west China.

METHODS

Patient characteristics and clinical data were collected from the national TB epidemic reporting system using standardized case reporting forms for diagnosis, treatment and outcome. Data were collected and entered by trained health staff in the regional TB clinics.

RESULTS

In total, data for 20,396 patients with TB were collected; of these, 78.5% were farmers. The age peaks were 20-44 years and 60-74 years. Average health-seeking and diagnostic delays were 32 days and two days, respectively. More than half (54.7%) of the patients with smear-negative TB were diagnosed by chest x-ray. Moreover, 94.3% of patients with TB were treated successfully. From 2009 to 2011, the health-seeking delay decreased significantly (P < 0.05), and the diagnostic delay increased significantly (P < 0.05). A significant decreasing trend in smear-positive TB was observed (P < 0.05), along with an increasing trend in treatment success (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In north-west China, there is a need to focus on key high-risk populations for prevention and control of TB, such as those aged 20-44 years and 60-74 years, males and farmers. Delays in diagnosis and treatment have a negative effect on cure rates and make it more difficult to control the propagation of TB.