Multiple biomarkers and atrial fibrillation in the general population

Natriuretic Peptides to Classify Risk of Atrial Fibrillation Detection After Stroke: Analysis of the BIOSIGNAL and PRECISE Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Prolonged cardiac monitoring (PCM) increases atrial fibrillation (AF) detection after ischemic stroke, but access is limited, and it is burdensome for patients. Our objective was to assess whether midregional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) could classify people who are unlikely to have AF after ischemic stroke and allow better targeting of PCM.

METHODS

We analyzed people from the Biomarker Signature of Stroke Aetiology (BIOSIGNAL) study with ischemic stroke, no known AF, and ≥3 days cardiac monitoring. External validation was performed in the Preventing Recurrent Cardioembolic Stroke: Right Approach, Right Patient (PRECISE) study of 28 days of cardiac monitoring in people with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack and no known AF. The main outcome is no AF detection. We assessed the discriminatory value of MR-proANP and NT-proBNP combined with clinical variables to identify people with no AF. A decision curve analysis was performed with combined data to determine the net reduction in people who would undergo PCM using the models based on a 15% threshold probability for AF detection.

RESULTS

We included 621 people from the BIOSIGNAL study. The clinical multivariable prediction model included age, NIH Stroke Scale score, lipid-lowering therapy, creatinine, and smoking status. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for clinical variables was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74), which improved with the addition of log10MR-proANP (0.72, 0.66-0.78; p = 0.001) or log10NT-proBNP (0.71, 0.65-0.77; p = 0.009). Performance was similar for the models with log10MR-proANP vs log10NT-proBNP (p = 0.28). In 239 people from the PRECISE study, the AUROC for clinical variables was 0.68 (0.59-0.76), which improved with the addition of log10NT-proBNP (0.73, 0.65-0.82; p < 0.001) or log10MR-proANP (0.79, 0.72-0.86; p < 0.001). Performance was better for the model with log10MR-proANP vs log10NT-proBNP (p = 0.03). The models could reduce the number of people who would undergo PCM by 30% (clinical and log10MR-proANP), 27% (clinical and log10NT-proBNP), or 20% (clinical only).

DISCUSSION

MR-proANP and NT-proBNP help classify people who are unlikely to have AF after ischemic stroke. Measuring MR-proANP or NT-proBNP could reduce the number of people who need PCM by 30%, without reducing the amount of AF detected.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

NCT02274727; clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT02274727.

Circulating adipose tissue proteins involved in atrial fibrillation: An explorative scoping review

Obesity increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), potentially through proteins secreted by adipose tissue (AT) that affect atrial electrical and structural remodeling. We aim to give a comprehensive overview of circulating AT proteins involved in inflammation and fibrosis, that are associated with prevalent AF (paroxysmal or persistent) and the risk on developing new-onset AF. These include adipokines, defined as proteins enriched in AT as adiponectin, but also proteins less specific to AT. We systematically performed an explorative search for studies reporting associations between proteins secreted from cells residing in the AT and AF, and additionally assessed the effect of obesity on these proteins by a secondary search. The AT proteins involved in inflammation were mostly increased in patients with prevalent and new-onset AF, and with obesity, while the AT enriched adipokines were mostly not associated with AF. This review provides insight into circulating adipose tissue proteins involved in AF substrate formation.

Chronic disease outcome metadata from German observational studies - public availability and FAIR principles

Metadata from epidemiological studies, including chronic disease outcome metadata (CDOM), are important to be findable to allow interpretability and reusability. We propose a comprehensive metadata schema and used it to assess public availability and findability of CDOM from German population-based observational studies participating in the consortium National Research Data Infrastructure for Personal Health Data (NFDI4Health). Additionally, principal investigators from the included studies completed a checklist evaluating consistency with FAIR principles (Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, Reusability) within their studies. Overall, six of sixteen studies had complete publicly available CDOM. The most frequent CDOM source was scientific publications and the most frequently missing metadata were availability of codes of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Principal investigators' main perceived barriers for consistency with FAIR principles were limited human and financial resources. Our results reveal that CDOM from German population-based studies have incomplete availability and limited findability. There is a need to make CDOM publicly available in searchable platforms or metadata catalogues to improve their FAIRness, which requires human and financial resources.

The Role of Major Biomarkers of Stress in Atrial Fibrillation: A Literature Review

Numerous studies have reported that physical or emotional stress can provoke atrial fibrillation (AF) or vice versa, which suggests a potential link between exposure to external stressors and AF. This review article sought to describe in detail the relationship between major stress biomarkers and the pathogenesis of AF and presents up-to-date knowledge on the role of physiological and psychological stress in AF patients. For this purpose, this review article contends that plasma cortisol is linked to a greater risk of AF. A previous study has investigated the association between increased copeptin levels and paroxysmal AF (PAF) in rheumatic mitral stenosis and reported that copeptin concentration was not independently associated with AF duration. Reduced levels of chromogranin were measured in patients with AF. Furthermore, the dynamic activity of antioxidant enzymes, including catalase as well as superoxide dismutase, was examined in PAF patients during a period of <48 h. Malondialdehyde activity, serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and high mobility group box 1 protein concentrations were significantly greater in patients with persistent AF or PAF compared to controls. Pooled data from 13 studies confirmed a significant reduction in the risk of AF related to the administration of vasopressin. Other studies have revealed the mechanism of action of heat shock proteins (HSPs) in preventing AF and also discussed the therapeutic potential of HSP-inducing compounds in clinical AF. More research is required to detect other biomarkers of stress, which have not been reported in the pathogenesis of AF. Further studies are required to identify their mechanism of action and drugs to manage these biomarkers of stress in AF patients, which might help to reduce the prevalence of AF globally.

The association of coagulation and atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

While atrial fibrillation (AF) is suggested to induce a prothrombotic state, increasing thrombotic risk, it is also hypothesized that coagulation underlies AF onset. However, conclusive evidence is lacking. With this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to summarize and combine the evidence on the associations between coagulation factors with AF in both longitudinal and cross-sectional studies.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We systematically searched for longitudinal cohort and cross-sectional studies investigating AF and thrombosis. For longitudinal studies, pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. For cross-sectional studies, we determined pooled standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% CIs. A total of 17 longitudinal and 44 cross-sectional studies were included. In longitudinal studies, we found significant associations between fibrinogen (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.10), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12), and D-dimer (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19) and AF incidence. In cross-sectional studies, we found significantly increased levels of fibrinogen (SMD 0.47, 95% CI 0.20-0,74), von Willebrand factor (SMD 0.96, 95% CI 0.28-1.66), P-selectin (SMD 0.31, 95% CI 0.08-0.54), ß-thromboglobulin (SMD 0.82, 95% CI 0.61-1.04), Platelet Factor 4 (SMD 0.42, 95% CI 0.12-0.7), PAI-1 (1.73, 95% CI 0.26-3.19), and D-dimer (SMD 1.74, 95% CI 0.36-3.11) in AF patients, as opposed to controls.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that higher levels of coagulation factors are associated with prevalent and incident AF. These associations are most pronounced with prevalent AF in cross-sectional studies. Limited evidence from longitudinal studies suggests a prothrombotic state underlying AF development.

Plasma mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin: A biomarker of the ischemic penumbra in hyperacute stroke

Reperfusion therapy has improved the outcomes of ischemic stroke but also emphasized the importance of ischemic penumbra. However, blood biomarkers are currently unavailable for this region. Adrenomedullin (ADM) is a neuroprotective peptide, secreted in a compensatory response to brain ischemia. We thus investigated whether an increase in mid-regional pro-ADM (MR-proADM), a stable peptide fragment of the ADM precursor, could act as a biomarker by predicting the ischemic penumbra in hyperacute ischemic stroke (HAIS). We prospectively enrolled consecutive HAIS patients (n = 119; median age, 77 years; male, 59.7%) admitted to our institutes from July 2017 to March 2019 and evaluated plasma MR-proADM levels within 4.5 h of onset. MR-proADM levels in HAIS were compared to healthy controls (n = 1298; median age, 58 years; male, 33.2%) in the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study from 2013 to 2017. Furthermore, we evaluated whether MR-proADM levels were associated with the penumbra estimated by clinical-diffusion mismatch (CDM) (National Institute of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] ≥8, diffusion ischemic core volume ≤25 ml), or magnetic resonance angiography-diffusion-weighted imaging mismatch (MDM) (NIHSS ≥5, a proximal vessel occlusion with core volume ≤25 ml, or a proximal vessel stenosis/distal vessel occlusion with core volume ≤15 ml). In a case-control study, multivariate logistic analysis showed a significant association between HAIS and MR-proADM ≥0.54 nmol/L (adjusted odds ratio, 7.92 [95% CI, 4.17-15.02], p < 0.001). Though MR-proADM levels in HAIS did not correlate with the ischemic core volume (r_s  = 0.09, p = 0.348), they were higher in HAIS with CDM (n = 34; 0.81 vs. 0.61 nmol/L, p < 0.001) or MDM (n = 26; 0.83 vs. 0.62 nmol/L, p = 0.002). These differences remained significant after adjusting baseline factors (adjusted odds ratio, 4.06 [95% CI, 1.31-12.55], p = 0.015 and 4.65 [1.35-16.11], p = 0.015, respectively). Plasma MR-proADM is elevated in HAIS, especially in those with a substantial penumbra, suggesting potential as a blood biomarker in this region.

Measurement of Midregional Pro-Atrial Natriuretic Peptide to Discover Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND

Midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) is a promising biomarker to differentiate the underlying etiology of acute ischemic stroke (AIS).

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the role of MR-proANP for classification as cardioembolic (CE) stroke, identification of newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (NDAF), and risk assessment for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

METHODS

This study measured MR-proANP prospectively collected within 24 hours after symptom-onset in patients with AIS from the multicenter BIOSIGNAL (Biomarker Signature of Stroke Aetiology) cohort study. Primary outcomes were CE stroke etiology and NDAF after prolonged cardiac monitoring, as well as a composite outcome of MACE (recurrent cerebrovascular events, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) within 1 year. Logistic/Poisson and subproportional hazard regression were applied to evaluate the association between MR-proANP levels and outcomes. Additionally, a model for prediction of NDAF was derived and validated as a decision tool for immediate clinical application.

RESULTS

Between October 1, 2014, and October 31, 2017, this study recruited 1,759 patients. Log₁₀MR-proANP levels were associated with CE stroke (OR: 7.96; 95% CI: 4.82-13.14; risk ratio: 3.12; 95% CI: 2.23-4.37), as well as NDAF (OR: 35.3; 95% CI: 17.58-71.03; risk ratio: 11.47; 95% CI: 6.74-19.53), and MACE (subdistributional HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.32-3.08) during follow-up. The model to predict NDAF including only age and MR-proANP levels had a good discriminatory capacity with an area under the curve of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76-0.86), was well calibrated (calibration in the large: -0.086; calibration slope 1.053), and yielded higher net-benefit compared with validated scores to predict NDAF (AS5F score, CHA₂DS₂-VASc [Congestive Heart Failure, Hypertension, Age ≥65 or ≥75, Diabetes, Prior Cardioembolic Event, (female) Sex, or Vascular Disease] score).

CONCLUSIONS

MR-proANP is a valid biomarker to determine risk of NDAF and MACE in patients with AIS and can be used as a decision tool to identify patients for prolonged cardiac monitoring. (Biomarker Signature of Stroke Aetiology Study: The BIOSIGNAL study [BIOSIGNAL]; NCT02274727).

Biomarkers associated with rhythm status after cardioversion in patients with atrial fibrillation

Biomarkers may help to improve our knowledge about the complex pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF). In this study we sought to identify significant changes in biomarkers and clinical measures in patients with and without AF recurrence after electrical cardioversion. We measured 21 conventional and new biomarkers before and 30 days after electrical cardioversion and assessed the associations of changes in biomarker levels with rhythm status at follow-up. Significant between-group changes were observed for bone morphogenetic protein 10 (BMP10), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and total bilirubin. Their respective changes were − 10.4%, − 62.0% and − 25.6% in patients with sinus rhythm, and 3.1%, 1.1% and − 9.4% in patients with recurrent AF, for a between-group difference of − 13.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] − 19.3% to − 7.6%; P < 0.001), − 63.1% (95% CI − 76.6% to − 49.6%; P < 0.001) and − 16.3% (95% CI − 27.9% to − 4.7%; P = 0.007). In multivariable models, the reductions of BMP10 and NT-proBNP were significantly associated with follow-up rhythm status (β coefficient per 1 − SD decrease, − 3.85; 95% CI − 6.34 to − 1.35; P = 0.003 for BMP10 and − 5.84; 95% CI − 10.22 to − 1.47; P = 0.009 for NT-proBNP. In conclusion, changes in BMP10 und NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with rhythm status after cardioversion, suggesting that these markers may be dependent on the actual heart rhythm.

NT-proBNP as a marker for atrial fibrillation and heart failure in four observational outpatient trials

Aims

Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist and are both associated with increased levels of N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP). It is known that AF impairs the diagnostic accuracy of NT‐proBNP for HF. The aim of the present study was to compare the diagnostic and predictive accuracy of NT‐proBNP for HF and AF in stable outpatients with cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods and results

Data were obtained from the DIAST‐CHF trial, a prospective cohort study that recruited individuals with cardiovascular risk factors and followed them up for 12 years. Data were validated in three independent population‐based cohorts using the same inclusion/exclusion criteria: LIFE‐Adult (n = 2869), SHIP (n = 2013), and SHIP‐TREND (n = 2408). Serum levels of NT‐proBNP were taken once at baseline. The DIAST‐CHF study enrolled 1727 study participants (47.7% female, mean age 66.9 ± 8.1 years). At baseline, patients without AF or HF (n = 1375) had a median NT‐proBNP of 94 pg/mL (interquartile range 51;181). In patients with AF (n = 93), NT‐proBNP amounted to 667 (215;1130) pg/mL. It was significantly higher than in the first group (P < 0.001) and compared with those with only HF [n = 201; 158 (66;363) pg/mL; P < 0.001]. The highest levels of NT‐proBNP [868 (213;1397) pg/mL] were measured in patients with concomitant HF and AF (n = 58; P < 0.001 vs. control and vs. HF, P = 1.0 vs. AF). In patients with AF, NT‐proBNP levels did not differ between those with HF and preserved ejection fraction (EF) > 50% [n = 38; 603 (175;1070) pg/mL] and those without HF (P = 1.0). Receiver‐operating characteristic curves of NT‐proBNP showed a similar area under the curve (AUC) for the detection of AF at baseline (0.84, 95% CI [0.79–0.88]) and for HF with EF < 50% (0.78 [0.72–0.85]; P = 0.18). The AUC for HF with EF > 50% was significantly lower (0.61 [0.56–0.65]) than for AF (P = 0.001). During follow‐up, AF was newly diagnosed in 157 (9.1%) and HF in 141 (9.6%) study participants. NT‐proBNP was a better predictor of incident AF during the first 2 years (AUC: 0.79 [0.75–0.83]) than of newly diagnosed HF (0.59 [0.55–0.63]; P < 0.001). Data were validated in three independent population‐based cohorts (LIFE‐Adult, n = 2869; SHIP, n = 2013; and SHIP‐TREND, n = 2408).

Conclusions

In stable outpatients, NT‐proBNP is a better marker for prevalent and incident AF than for HF. In AF patients, the diagnostic value of NT‐proBNP for HF with EF > 50% is very limited.

Atrial fibrillation: is there a role for cardiac troponin?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia, and its prevalence rate is expected to be doubled over the next decades. Despite the wide use of biomarkers in the management of different cardiac diseases such as myocardial infarction and heart failure, utilization of biomarkers in AF management is not routinely recommended by current guidelines. There is also growing evidence that higher levels of cardiac-specific troponin, as an intracellular protein involved in cardiomyocyte contraction, may be associated with the risk of incident and recurrent AF and its complications. In the present paper, we review the association between troponin and AF and propose clinical suggestions for use of troponin in the management of AF patients.

Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Persons with Very High Serum Levels of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Objective

While persons in the upper fourth or fifth of the distribution of serum levels of N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are at a sharply increased risk of developing atrial fibrillation, their absolute risk of this condition (about 20 per 1000 per year) is not clearly high enough to justify prevention or early detection measures. We sought to determine whether the incidence of atrial fibrillation among persons with VERY high levels of NT-proBNP might be sufficiently high to warrant further action.

Design and Setting

Among persons enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we documented rates of new onset atrial fibrillation in those with increasingly high serum levels of NT-proBNP.

Results

There was a monotonic increase in the incidence of atrial fibrillation with increasing serum level of NT-proBNP, reaching rates of about 50–70 cases per 1000 person-years among those in the upper 3.1% of the distribution (above 422 pg/mL). In this group the incidence tended to be somewhat higher still among persons who were at increased risk of atrial fibrillation for other reasons (eg older age), but in no subgroup did the incidence reach 100 per 1000 person-years.

Conclusion

Serum levels of NT-proBNP have a considerable ability to predict the development of atrial fibrillation. However, the value of screening middle aged and older adults for these levels hinges largely on the ability of interventions in screen-positive people to lead to a reduced incidence of atrial fibrillation and its complications.

NT -pro BNP as a Mediator of the Racial Difference in Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure

Background

Blacks harbor more cardiovascular risk factors than whites, but experience less atrial fibrillation (AF). Conversely, whites may have a lower risk of heart failure (CHF). N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) levels are higher in whites, predict incident AF, and have diuretic effects in the setting of increased ventricular diastolic pressures, potentially providing a unifying explanation for these racial differences.

Methods and Results

We used data from the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) to determine the degree to which baseline NT‐proBNP levels mediate the relationships between race and incident AF and CHF by comparing beta estimates between models with and without NT‐proBNP. The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study was used to assess reproducibility. Among 4731 CHS (770 black) and 12 418 ARIC (3091 black) participants, there were 1277 and 1253 incident AF events, respectively. Whites had higher baseline NT‐proBNP (CHS: 40% higher than blacks; 95% CI, 29–53; ARIC: 39% higher; 95% CI, 33–46) and had a greater risk of incident AF compared with blacks (CHS: adjusted hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.31–1.93; ARIC: hazard ratio, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.57–2.27). NT‐proBNP levels explained a significant proportion of the racial difference in AF risk (CHS: 36.2%; 95% CI, 23.2–69.2%; ARIC: 24.6%; 95% CI, 14.8–39.6%). Contrary to our hypothesis, given an increased risk of CHF among whites in CHS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.05–1.47) and the absence of a significant association between race and CHF in ARIC (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.94–1.23), CHF‐related mediation analyses were not performed.

Conclusions

A substantial portion of the relationship between race and AF was statistically explained by baseline NT‐proBNP levels. No consistent relationship between race and CHF was observed.

See Editorial by Richards

Cardiac natriuretic peptides

Investigations into the mixed muscle-secretory phenotype of cardiomyocytes from the atrial appendages of the heart led to the discovery that these cells produce, in a regulated manner, two polypeptide hormones - the natriuretic peptides - referred to as atrial natriuretic factor or atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and brain or B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), thereby demonstrating an endocrine function for the heart. Studies on the gene encoding ANP (NPPA) initiated the field of modern research into gene regulation in the cardiovascular system. Additionally, ANP and BNP were found to be the natural ligands for cell membrane-bound guanylyl cyclase receptors that mediate the effects of natriuretic peptides through the generation of intracellular cGMP, which interacts with specific enzymes and ion channels. Natriuretic peptides have many physiological actions and participate in numerous pathophysiological processes. Important clinical entities associated with natriuretic peptide research include heart failure, obesity and systemic hypertension. Plasma levels of natriuretic peptides have proven to be powerful diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of heart disease. Development of pharmacological agents that are based on natriuretic peptides is an area of active research, with vast potential benefits for the treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Atrial fibrillation among Russian men and women aged 55 years and older: prevalence, mortality, and associations with biomarkers in a population-based study

Objective

To examine the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), its impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality, and the associations between AF and inflammatory and serum biomarkers in a population-based sample of Muscovites.

Methods

The study is a secondary analysis of data from the Stress, Aging and Health in Russia (SAHR) survey that includes information on 1800 individuals with an average age of 68.5 years at baseline, and on their subsequent mortality during 7.4 years on average. AF is detected by 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) and 24-hour Holter monitoring. The statistical analysis includes proportional hazard and logistic regression models.

Results

Of the 1732 participants with relevant Holter data, AF was detected in 100 (74 by ECG and Holter, 26 by Holter only). The prevalence of AF was 5.8% for men and 7.4% for women. The fully adjusted model showed strongly elevated hazard of CVD and all-cause mortality in men and women with long non-self-limiting AF (LAF). LAF was found to be negatively associated with elevated total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and to be positively associated with elevated markers of inflammation in women.

Conclusions

The study assessed for the first time the prevalence and the risks of death related to AF among older Russians. LAF was shown to be a strong and independent predictor of CVD and all-cause mortality. AF is unlikely to contribute to the large excess male mortality in Russia. The finding that one-quarter of AF cases were detected only by Holter monitoring demonstrates the usefulness of diagnostics with prolonged ECG registration.

Brain Natriuretic Peptide and Discovery of Atrial Fibrillation After Stroke

Background and Purpose—

Diagnosing paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (pAF) can be challenging after acute ischemic stroke. Enhanced and prolonged Holter-ECG monitoring (EPM) improves the detection rate but is not feasible for all patients. We hypothesized that brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) may help to identify patients with stroke at high risk for pAF to select patients for EPM more effectively.

Methods—

Patients with acute cerebral ischemia ≥60 years presenting in sinus rhythm and without history of AF were included into a prospective, randomized multicenter study to receive either EPM (3× 10-day Holter-ECG) or usual stroke care diagnostic work-up. BNP plasma levels were measured on randomization and 3 months thereafter. Levels were compared between patients with and without pAF detected by means of EPM or usual care. Furthermore, the number needed to screen for EPM depending on BNP cut offs was calculated.

Results—

A total of 398 patients were analyzed. In 373 patients (93.7%), BNP was measured at baseline and in 275 patients (69.1%) after 3 months. pAF was found in 27 patients by means of EPM and in 9 patients by means of usual care ( P =0.002). Median BNP was higher in patients with pAF as compared to patients without AF in both study arms at baseline (57.8 versus 28.3 pg/mL in the EPM arm, P =0.0003; 46.2 versus 27.7 pg/mL, P =0.28 in the control arm) and after 3 months (74.9 versus 31.3 pg/mL, P =0.012 in the EPM arm, 99.3 versus 26.3 pg/mL, P =0.02 in the control arm). Applying a cut off of 100 pg/mL, the number needed to screen was reduced from 18 by usual care to 3 by EPM.

Conclusions—

BNP measured early after ischemic stroke identifies a subgroup of patients with stroke at increased risk for AF, in whom EPM is particularly efficacious.

Registration—

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01855035.

Myeloperoxidase - A bridge linking inflammation and oxidative stress with cardiovascular disease

Myeloperoxidase (MPO) is a member of the superfamily of heme peroxidases that is mainly expressed in neutrophils and monocytes. MPO-derived reactive species play a key role in neutrophil antimicrobial activity and human defense against various pathogens primarily by participating in phagocytosis. Elevated MPO levels in circulation are associated with inflammation and increased oxidative stress. Multiple lines of evidence suggest an association between MPO and cardiovascular disease (CVD) including coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, arterial hypertension, pulmonary arterial hypertension, peripheral arterial disease, myocardial ischemia/reperfusion-related injury, stroke, cardiac arrhythmia and venous thrombosis. Elevated MPO levels are associated with a poor prognosis including increased risk for overall and CVD-related mortality. Elevated MPO may signify an increased risk for CVD for at least 2 reasons. First, low-grade inflammation and increased oxidative stress coexist with many metabolic abnormalities and comorbidities and consequently an elevated MPO level may represent an increased cardiometabolic risk in general. Second, MPO produces a large number of highly reactive species which can attack, destroy or modify the function of every known cellular component. The most common MPO actions relevant to CVD are generation of dysfunctional lipoproteins with an increased atherogenicity potential, reduced NO availability, endothelial dysfunction, impaired vasoreactivity and atherosclerotic plaque instability. These actions strongly suggest that MPO is directly involved in the pathophysiology of CVD. In this regard MPO may be seen as a mediator or an instrument through which inflammation promotes CVD at molecular and cellular level. Clinical value of MPO therapeutic inhibition remains to be tested.

Cardiovascular Biomarkers in Amniotic Fluid, Umbilical Arterial Blood, Umbilical Venous Blood, and Maternal Blood at Delivery, and Their Reference Values for Full-Term, Singleton, Cesarean Deliveries

Background: Several cardiovascular biomarkers have regulatory functions in perinatal physiology. Aim: This study aimed to analyze the feto-maternal distribution pattern of biomarkers in samples of amniotic fluid, umbilical arterial blood, umbilical venous blood, and maternal blood samples, and to establish reference values. Each linked sample set consisted of the combined samples obtained in an individual pregnancy. Study design: We performed a prospective, observational, cross-sectional, single-center study. Subjects: The sample cohort included 189 neonates who were born to 170 mothers. A total of 162/189 neonates were full term and 129/189 were delivered by elective cesarean section. Outcome measures: Midregional pro-adrenomedullin (MRproADM [nmol/L]), midregional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MRproANP [pmol/L]), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP [pg/mL]), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP [pg/mL]), copeptin [pmol/L], and high-sensitive troponin I (hsTnI [pg/mL]) levels were measured. Results: In singleton, full-term, primary cesarean deliveries (n = 91), biomarker levels (median, [IQR]) at delivery were as follows. MRproADM levels in umbilical arterial blood/umbilical venous blood/amniotic fluid/maternal blood were 0.88 (0.20)/0.95 (0.18)/2.80 (1.18)/1.10 (0.54), respectively. MRproANP levels were 214.23 (91.38)/216.03 (86.15)/0.00 (3.82)/50.67 (26.81), respectively. BNP levels were 14.60 (25.18)/22.08 (18.91)/7.15 (6.01)/6.20 (18.23), respectively. NTproBNP levels were 765.48 (555.24)/816.45 (675.71)/72.03 (55.58)/44.40 (43.94), respectively. Copeptin levels were 46.17 (290.42)/5.54 (9.08)/9.97 (7.44)/4.61 (4.59), respectively. Levels of hsTnI were 6.20 (4.25)/5.60 (5.01)/0.45 (1.73)/2.50 (2.40), respectively. Conclusion: We determined reference values for biomarkers in term neonates delivered by primary cesarean section in amniotic fluid, umbilical arterial and venous blood, and maternal blood. Biomarkers in the fetal circulation appear to be of primary fetal origin, except for MRproADM.

Biomarkers and arrhythmia recurrence following radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation

Objective

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and radiofrequency catheter ablation of AF (RCAAF) has become increasingly popular. Cardiac stress and inflammation have been associated with AF. This study was performed to determine whether the pre- or post-AF ablation levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are predictive of AF recurrence.

Methods

This multicenter prospective cohort study involved patients undergoing RCAAF in Switzerland and Canada. The primary endpoint was the recurrence of AF or atrial flutter at 6 months.

Results

Of 202 patients, 195 completed follow-up (age, 57.5 ± 9 years; mean left ventricular ejection fraction, 62%; mean left atrial size, 19.4 cm²). Patients with AF recurrence had larger atrial surfaces and longer total RCAAF times. Both the pre-ablation hs-CRP level and 1-day post-RCAAF NT-proBNP level were significantly associated with an increased risk of recurrence.

Conclusions

The pre-ablation hs-CRP level and immediate post-ablation NT-proBNP level were markers for atrial arrhythmia recurrence after RCAAF. This confirms growing evidence of the role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of AF. These biomarkers appear to be promising stratification tools for selection and management of patients undergoing RCAAF.

Cross-Sectional Associations between Homoarginine, Intermediate Phenotypes, and Atrial Fibrillation in the Community-The Gutenberg Health Study

Homoarginine has come into the focus of interest as a biomarker for cardiovascular disease. Atrial fibrillation (AF) causes a substantial increase in morbidity and mortality. Whether circulating homoarginine is associated with occurrence or persistence of AF and may serve as a new predictive biomarker remains unknown. We measured plasma levels of homoarginine in the population-based Gutenberg health study (3761 patients included, of them 51.7% males), mean age 55.6 ± 10.9 years-old. Associations between homoarginine and intermediate electrocardiographic and echocardiographic phenotypes and manifest AF were examined. Patients with AF (124 patients, of them 73.4% males) had a mean age 64.8 ± 8.6 years-old compared to a mean age of 55.3 ± 10.9 in the population without AF (p-value < 0.001) and showed a less beneficial risk factor profile. The median homoarginine levels in individuals with and without AF were 1.9 μmol/L (interquartile range (IQR) 1.5–2.5) and 2.0 μmol/L (IQR 1.5–2.5), respectively, p = 0.56. In multivariable-adjusted regression analyses homoarginine was not statistically significantly related to electrocardiographic variables. Among echocardiographic variables beta per standard deviation increase was −0.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) −0.23–(−0.02); p = 0.024) for left atrial area and −0.01 (95% CI −0.02–(−0.003); p = 0.013) for E/A ratio. The odds ratio between homoarginine and AF was 0.91 (95% CI 0.70–1.16; p = 0.45). In our large, population-based cross-sectional study, we did not find statistically significant correlations between lower homoarginine levels and occurrence or persistence of AF or most standard electrocardiographic phenotypes, but some moderate inverse associations with echocardiographic left atrial size and E/A. Homoarginine may not represent a strong biomarker to identify individuals at increased risk for AF. Further investigations will be needed to elucidate the role of homoarginine and cardiac function.

The association between plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and long-term outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prognostic role of big endothelin-1 (ET-1) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. We aimed to assess its predictive value in patients with AF.

METHODS

A total of 716 AF patients were enrolled and divided into two groups based on the optimal cut-off value of big ET-1 in predicting all-cause mortality. The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and major adverse events (MAEs). Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were performed to assess the predictive value of big ET-1 on outcomes.

RESULTS

With the optimal cut-off value of 0.55 pmol/L, 326 patients were classified into the high big ET-1 levels group. Cardiac dysfunction and left atrial dilation were factors related to high big ET-1 levels. During a median follow-up of 3 years, patients with big ET-1 ≥ 0.55 pmol/L had notably higher risk of all-cause death (44.8% vs. 11.5%, p < 0.001), MAEs (51.8% vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001), cardiovascular death, major bleeding, and tended to have higher thromboembolic risk. After adjusting for confounding factors, high big ET-1 level was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.05; p < 0.001), MAEs (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.50-2.80; p = 0.001), and cardiovascular death (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.52-3.93; p < 0.001). NRI analysis showed that big ET-1 allowed a significant improvement of 0.32 in the accuracy of predicting the risk of both all-cause mortality and MAEs.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated big ET-1 levels is an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality, MAEs, and cardiovascular death in patients with AF.

Gene Expression Profiles for the Identification of Prevalent Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) can be difficult, requiring cumbersome investigations. We aimed to determine the association of established whole-blood gene expression scores with prevalent AF and to evaluate their performance for the identification of AF in a SIRS (Steroids in Cardiac Surgery) trial cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Whole-blood, transcriptome-wide gene expression profiling was performed using the Illumina HumanHT-12 Expression BeadChip in 416 participants (65% men) before surgery, including 91 with a diagnosis of AF. An AF gene score (GS) calculated from 7 genes reported to be upregulated in AF and a validated GS for biological age based on 1254 genes related to aging were both independently associated with AF diagnosis before surgery in multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusting for known risk factors (P=0.0006 and P=0.003). Addition of AF and biological age GSs to clinical risk factors led to significant improvement in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (from 0.77 to 0.80; P=0.03), continuous net reclassification improvement index (P<0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement index (P=0.0002). When stratifying AF by subtype, AF GS was mainly associated with paroxysmal AF (P=0.003), whereas the biological age GS was mainly associated with permanent AF (P=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

We validated the existence of a blood gene expression signature for prevalent AF and showed that biological age derived from gene expression is significantly associated with prevalent AF. These findings suggest a potential utility of blood gene expression for the identification of patients with AF, particularly paroxysmal AF. This result could have implications for the prevention and management of cryptogenic stroke.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00427388.

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation

Approximately 10% of ischemic strokes are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) first diagnosed at the time of stroke. Detecting asymptomatic AF would provide an opportunity to prevent these strokes by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. The AF-SCREEN international collaboration was formed in September 2015 to promote discussion and research about AF screening as a strategy to reduce stroke and death and to provide advocacy for implementation of country-specific AF screening programs. During 2016, 60 expert members of AF-SCREEN, including physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, health economists, and patient advocates, were invited to prepare sections of a draft document. In August 2016, 51 members met in Rome to discuss the draft document and consider the key points arising from it using a Delphi process. These key points emphasize that screen-detected AF found at a single timepoint or by intermittent ECG recordings over 2 weeks is not a benign condition and, with additional stroke factors, carries sufficient risk of stroke to justify consideration of anticoagulation. With regard to the methods of mass screening, handheld ECG devices have the advantage of providing a verifiable ECG trace that guidelines require for AF diagnosis and would therefore be preferred as screening tools. Certain patient groups, such as those with recent embolic stroke of uncertain source (ESUS), require more intensive monitoring for AF. Settings for screening include various venues in both the community and the clinic, but they must be linked to a pathway for appropriate diagnosis and management for screening to be effective. It is recognized that health resources vary widely between countries and health systems, so the setting for AF screening should be both country- and health system-specific. Based on current knowledge, this white paper provides a strong case for AF screening now while recognizing that large randomized outcomes studies would be helpful to strengthen the evidence base.

Predictive Role of Coagulation, Fibrinolytic, and Endothelial Markers in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation, Stroke, and Thromboembolism: A Meta-Analysis, Meta-Regression, and Systematic Review

Background

The pathophysiological mechanism associated with the higher prothrombotic tendency in atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex and multifactorial. However, the role of prothrombotic markers in AF remains inconclusive.

Material/Methods

We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies evaluating the association of coagulation activation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial function with occurrence of AF and clinical adverse events. A comprehensive subgroup analysis and meta-regression was performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity.

Results

A literature search of major databases retrieved 1703 studies. After screening, a total of 71 studies were identified. Pooled analysis showed the association of coagulation markers (D-dimer (weighted mean difference (WMD)=197.67 and p<0.001), fibrinogen (WMD=0.43 and p<0.001), prothrombin fragment 1–2 (WMD=0.53 and p<0.001), antithrombin III (WMD=23.90 and p=0.004), thrombin-antithrombin (WMD=5.47 and p=0.004)); fibrinolytic markers (tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) (WMD=2.13 and p<0.001), plasminogen activator inhibitor (WMD=11.44 and p<0.001), fibrinopeptide-A (WMD=4.13 and p=0.01)); and endothelial markers (von Willebrand factor (WMD=27.01 and p<0.001) and soluble thrombomodulin (WMD=3.92 and p<0.001)) with AF.

Conclusions

The levels of coagulation, fibrinolytic, and endothelial markers have been reported to be significantly higher in AF patients than in SR patients.

Short-Term Influence of Radiofrequency Ablation on NT-proBNP, MR-proANP, Copeptin, and MR-proADM in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Data From the Observational SMURF Study

Background

There is limited knowledge on the short‐term influence of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) on 2 cardiac biomarkers; the N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) and the midregional fragment of the N‐terminal of pro‐ANP (MR‐proANP) and 2 extracardiac biomarkers; the c‐terminal provasopressin (copeptin) and the midregional portion of proadrenomedullin (MR‐proADM). There are also limited data concerning cardiac production of the latter two.

Methods and Results

We studied 192 consecutive patients eligible for RFA of AF referred to the University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden. NT‐proBNP, MR‐proANP, copeptin, and MR‐proADM levels were measured in peripheral blood, the coronary sinus (CS), and the left atrium before ablation, and in peripheral blood immediately and the day after RFA. The level of NT‐proBNP decreased the day after RFA in participants in AF at the time of RFA, compared to the participants in sinus rhythm who showed a slight increase (P<0.001). Furthermore, regardless of the actual rhythm, the level of MR‐proANP showed an increase immediately after RFA (P<0.001), followed by a decrease the day after ablation (P<0.001). Copeptin level showed a 6‐fold increase immediately after RFA compared to baseline (P<0.001), whereas MR‐proADM level increased the day after RFA (P<0.001). Levels of copeptin and MR‐proADM were not higher in the CS compared to peripheral blood.

Conclusions

RFA of AF is a strong stimulus with a significant and direct impact on different neurohormonal systems. We found no sign of a cardiac release of MR‐proADM or copeptin.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT01553045.

Discovery of new biomarkers for atrial fibrillation using a custom-made proteomics chip

BACKGROUND

Apart from several established clinical risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), a number of biomarkers have also been identified as potential risk factors for AF. None of these have so far been adopted in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

To use a novel custom-made proteomics chip to discover new prognostic biomarkers for AF risk.

METHODS

In two independent community-based cohorts (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study (978 participants without AF, mean age 70.1 years, 50% women, median follow-up 10.0 years) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) (n=725, mean age 77.5 years, median follow-up 7.9 years)), ninety-two plasma proteins were assessed at baseline by a proximity extension assay (PEA) chip. Of those, 85 proteins showed a call rate >70% in both cohorts.

RESULTS

Thirteen proteins were related to incident AF in PIVUS (148 events) using a false discovery rate of 5%. Of those, five were replicated in ULSAM at nominal multivariable p value (123 events, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)). Of those, NT-pro-BNP and FGF-23 were also associated with AF after adjusting for established AF risk factors. In a prespecified secondary analysis pooling the two data sets, T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 1 (TIM-1) and adrenomedullin (AM) were also significantly related to incident AF in addition to the aforementioned five proteins (Bonferroni-adjustment). The addition of NT-pro-BNP to a model with established risk factors increased the C-statistic from 0.605 to 0.676 (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Using a novel proteomics approach, we confirmed the previously reported association between NT-pro-BNP, FGF-23, GDF-15 and incident AF, and also discovered four proteins (FABP4, IL-6, TIM-1 and AM) that could be of importance in the development of AF.

Asymmetric dimethylarginine, related arginine derivatives, and incident atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress plays an important role in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Arginine derivatives including asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) are central to nitric oxide metabolism and nitrosative stress. Whether blood concentrations of arginine derivatives are related to incidence of AF is uncertain.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 3,310 individuals (mean age 58 ± 10 years, 54% women) from the community-based Framingham Study, we prospectively examined the relations of circulating levels of ADMA, l-arginine, symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA), and the ratio of l-arginine/ADMA to incidence of AF using proportional hazards regression models. Over a median follow-up time of 10 years, 247 AF cases occurred. Using age- and sex-adjusted regression models, ADMA was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.15 per 1-SD increase in loge-biomarker concentration (95% CI 1.02-1.29, P = .02) for AF, which was no longer significant after further risk factor adjustment (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.97-1.23, P = .15). Neither l-arginine nor SDMA was related to new-onset AF. A clinical model comprising clinical risk factors for AF (for age, sex, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, diabetes, hypertension treatment, myocardial infarction, and heart failure; c statistic = 0.781; 95% CI 0.753-0.808) was not improved by the addition of ADMA (0.782; 95% CI 0.755-0.809).

CONCLUSIONS

Asymmetric dimethylarginine and related arginine derivatives were not associated with incident AF in the community after accounting for other clinical risk factors and confounders. Its role in the pathogenesis of AF needs further refinement.

Subclinical impairment of lung function is related to mild cardiac dysfunction and manifest heart failure in the general population

BACKGROUND

Lung function impairment has previously been related to heart failure, although no overt cardiovascular or structural heart disease is present. The extent to which pulmonary function is related to subclinical left ventricular impairment in the general population remains to be investigated.

METHODS

15010 individuals from the general population (mean age 55±11years, 50.5% men) in the Gutenberg Health Study underwent spirometry, transthoracic echocardiography and biomarker measurement. Forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in percent of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC ratio were associated with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure, systolic and diastolic function, biomarkers of cardiac necrosis (high-sensitive troponin I, hsTnI) and stress (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, Nt-proBNP) and heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

RESULTS

Percent predicted FEV1 and FVC were significantly associated with hsTnI (P<0.001) and Nt-proBNP (P<0.001). Additionally, FEV1/FVC ratio was significantly related to hsTnI (P=0.0043) and Nt-proBNP (P<0.001). In the multivariable-adjusted linear regression analyses strongest associations were observed for percent predicted FEV1 and FVC with LVESD, E/e', SV and EF. FEV1/FVC ratio was significantly related with SV and EF. The three lung function parameters were significantly (P<0.001) associated with HFpEF and HFrEF. Associations remained statistically significant after exclusion of individuals with COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

FEV1, FVC and FEV1/FVC ratio were associated with systolic and diastolic function and manifest heart failure. Our observations could show, that subclinical lung function impairment is related to a measurable reduction of left ventricular filling and cardiac output in the general population.

The changing circumstance of atrial fibrillation - progress towards precision medicine

The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population is between 1% and 2% in the developed world and is higher in men than in women. The arrhythmia occurs much more commonly in the elderly, and the estimated lifetime risk of developing AF is one in four for men and women aged 40 years and above. Projected data from multiple population-based studies in the USA and Europe predict a two- to threefold increase in the number of AF patients by 2060. The high lifetime risk of AF and increased longevity underscore the important public health burden posed by this arrhythmia worldwide. AF has multiple aetiologies and a broad variety of presentations. The primary pathologies underlying or promoting the occurrence of AF vary more than for any other cardiac arrhythmia, ranging from autonomic imbalance to organic heart disease and metabolic disorders, such as diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, hyperthyroidism and kidney disease, and lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and participation in endurance sports. Biomarkers are increasingly being investigated and, together with clinical and genetic factors, will eventually lead to a clinically valuable detailed classification of AF which will also incorporate pathophysiological determinants and mechanisms of the arrhythmia. In turn, this will allow the development and application of precision medicine to this troublesome arrhythmia.

Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Its Complications

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia associated with an increased risk of stroke and other complications. Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing AF in the community is now possible using validated predictive models that take into account clinical variables and circulating biomarkers. These models have shown adequate performance in racially and ethnically diverse populations. Similarly, risk stratification schemes predict incidence of ischemic stroke in persons with AF, assisting clinicians and patients in decisions regarding oral anticoagulation use. Complementary schemes have been developed to predict the risk of bleeding in AF patients taking vitamin K antagonists. However, major gaps exist in our ability to predict AF and its complications. Additional research should refine models for AF prediction and determine their value to improve population health and clinical outcomes, advance our ability to predict stroke and other complications in AF patients, and develop predictive models for bleeding events and other adverse effects in patients using non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants. (Circ J 2016; 80: 1061-1066).

Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND

Existing equations for prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed and validated in white and African-American populations. Whether these models adequately predict AF in more racially and ethnically diverse populations is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 6663 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without AF at baseline (2000-2002) enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Of these, 38% were non-Hispanic whites, 28% non-Hispanic African Americans, 22% Hispanics, and 12% Chinese Americans. AF during follow-up was ascertained from hospitalization discharge codes through 2012. Information collected at baseline was used to calculate predicted 5-year risk of AF using the previously published simple CHARGE-AF model, which only includes clinical variables, and a biomarker-enriched CHARGE-AF model, which also considers levels of circulating N-terminal of the prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein. For comparison purposes, we also assessed performance of the 10-year Framingham AF model. During a mean follow-up of 10.2 years, 351 cases of AF were identified. The C-statistic of the CHARGE-AF models were 0.779 (95% CI, 0.744-0.814) for the simple model and 0.825 (95% CI, 0.791-0.860) for the biomarker-enriched model. Calibration was adequate in the biomarker-enriched model (χ(2)=7.9; P=0.55), but suboptimal in the simple model (χ(2)=25.6; P=0.002). In contrast, the 10-year Framingham score had a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.746 (0.720-0.771) and showed poor calibration (χ(2)=57.4; P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The CHARGE-AF risk models adequately predicted 5-year AF risk in a large multiethnic cohort. These models could be useful to select high-risk individuals for AF screening programs or for primary prevention trials in diverse populations.

Almanac 2015: atrial fibrillation research in Heart

Atrial fibrillation continues to attract interest in the cardiovascular community and in Heart. Over 60 original research and review papers published in Heart in 2014–2015 cover various aspects of atrial fibrillation, from associated conditions and precipitating factors to new approaches to management. Here, we provide an overview of articles on atrial fibrillation published in Heart in 2014–2015, highlighting new developments, emerging concepts and novel approaches to treatment.

Relation of Biomarkers of Inflammation and Oxidative Stress with Hypertension Occurrence in Lone Atrial Fibrillation

We compared plasma levels of biomarkers of inflammation (CRP) and oxidation (oxLDL), determined at study inclusion in lone atrial fibrillation (LAF) patients (48.6 ± 11.5 years; 74.0% men) and sinus rhythm controls (49.7 ± 9.3 years; 72.7% men, P > 0.05), and investigated the association of baseline CRP and oxLDL levels with the risk for vascular disease (VD) development (hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, coronary/peripheral artery disease, and pulmonary embolism) during prospective follow-up. Baseline CRP (1.2 [0.7–1.9] mg/L versus 1.1 [0.7–1.6] mg/L) and oxLDL levels (66.3 ± 21.2 U/L versus 57.1 ± 14.6 U/L) were higher in LAF patients (both P < 0.05). Following a median of 36 months, incident VD occurred in 14 (28.0%) LAF patients, all of whom developed arterial hypertension, and in 5 (11.4%) controls (hypertension, n = 4; coronary artery disease, n = 1), P < 0.05. LAF patients developed VD more frequently and at a younger age. Both CRP (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.26–5.12; P = 0.009) and oxLDL (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.14–4.40; P = 0.019) were multivariate predictors of incident hypertension in LAF patients, but not in the controls. Further research should clarify clinical relevance of investigated biomarkers for risk stratification and treatment of LAF patients.