Climatic Stress during Stand Development Alters the Sign and Magnitude of Age-Related Growth Responses in a Subtropical Mountain Pine

Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches

Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.

Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence

In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.

Linking functional traits with tree growth and forest productivity in Quercus ilex forests along a climatic gradient

Plant functional traits are highly plastic to changes in climatic factors and nutrient availability. However, the intraspecific plant response to abiotic factors and the overall effect on tree growth and productivity is still under debate. We studied forest productivity for 30 Quercus ilex subsp. ballota forests in Spain along a broad climatic gradient of aridity (mean annual precipitation from 321 to 858 mm). We used linear mixed models to quantify the effect of climatic and edaphic (soil nutrients, topography, and texture) factors on tree functional traits (leaf and branch traits), and subsequently, the effect of such functional traits and abiotic factors on the relative growth rate (RGR) of adult trees. We used piecewise structural equation models (SEMs) to determine the causal effect of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on forest productivity. Our results showed that tree functional traits were mainly explained by climatic and edaphic factors. Functional traits and tree biomass explained forest biomass and RGR, respectively, which ultimately explained forest productivity. In conclusion, intraspecific variability of functional traits has a significant effect on plant biomass and growth, which ultimately may explain forest productivity in Quercus ilex forests.

Evidence of non-stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non-stationary (i.e. non-time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above-ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above-ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non-stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above-ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.

Age-mediation of tree-growth responses to experimental warming in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The trajectory of tree-growth response to climate warming may be related to attributes like tree age. However, age-mediation of temperature sensitivity of tree growth has received little attention. This study aimed to determine how age affects tree growth in a future warmer world. In a 2-year ecosystem warming experiment in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China, we explored the response of Qinghai spruce saplings at two life stages to two warming levels. Our results indicated a significant interaction between warming and age for sapling growth of Qinghai spruce. In high-level warming scenario, the experiment increased growing season air temperatures by approximately 1.0°C and annual growing degree-days by 38%. In response, warmed saplings lengthened the growing season by 10 days on average and increased the final shoot length to a maximum of 104% compared to control groups. Comparison of age classes revealed that old saplings exhibited significantly higher temperature sensitivity than young saplings. This performance may be caused by the differences in adaptive strategy to the asymmetric warming occurring during the whole day. Increased daytime temperature was expected to significantly enhance leaf photosynthesis, whereas lack of obvious nighttime warming would effectively restrict autotrophic respiration, thus resulting in the higher growth rate of old saplings compared with young saplings. Moreover, lack of nighttime warming rendered young saplings to be still in high stresses of freezing injury at low temperatures. These findings highlight the need for additional research on the effects of further climate anomalies on tree species during their ontogenetic processes.

Recent rising temperatures drive younger and southern Korean pine growth decline

The Earth has experienced an unequivocal warming, with the warmest period of the past 150 years occurring in the last three decades. Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), a key tree species in northeast Asia, is predicted to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Here, we use dendrochronological methods to test whether the observed growth decline of Korean pine in northeast China is related to climate warming and whether climate-growth responses varied with age. A total of 628 cores from 401 trees across 16 sites were sampled over the entire distribution area of Korean pine in China. Samples were divided into three age classes: younger (50-130 years), middle (131-210 years), and older trees (>210 years), and measured by the ring-width index and basal area increment (BAI). Results showed a significant decline in BAI in most sites coinciding with an increase of temperature in the growing season and a decrease in precipitation since the 1980s. Meanwhile, we found that temperature-induced growth decline was significantly related to tree age. The BAI of younger trees decreased significantly and sharply (0.44 cm² year^-1, P < 0.0001), while old trees either decreased slightly or stabilized (0.04 cm² year^-1, P = 0.33). Tree growth in the southernmost locations was more likely to decline, what was most likely a result of forest-stand age. The age-related growth decline induced by climate warming might be explained by tree species traits, differences in growth rates between age classes and their relation to stress, changes in root system, competition/stand structure or physiological mechanisms. Our results might also predict that early stand process-thinning is exacerbated by warming and drying. This research informs that the age effect of growth response to rising temperature should be considered in forest management under climate change, and particularly models of future carbon cycle patterns and forest dynamics.

Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late-successional short-statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm-like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad-leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm-like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.