Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

Resurgence of Clinical Malaria in Ethiopia in the Era of Anopheles stephensi Invasion

Background

The invasion of Anopheles stephensi into Africa poses a potential threat to malaria control and elimination on the continent. However, it is not clear if the recent malaria resurgence in Ethiopia has linked to the expansion of An. stephensi. We aimed to summarize the major achievements and lesson learnt in malaria control in Ethiopia from 2001 to 2022, to assess the new challenges and prospects for the control of An. stephensi.

Methods and findings

We obtained the clinical malaria case reports, antimalarial drug treatment records, insecticide-treated and long-lasting insecticidal net (ITN/LLIN) distribution and utilization records, and indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage data from the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MoH) for the period 2001-2022. We analyzed clinical malaria hotspots using spatially optimized hotspot analysis. We investigated malaria outbreaks in 2022 and examined the potential role of An. stephensi in the outbreaks.Clinical malaria cases in Ethiopia decreased by 80%, from 5.2 million cases (11% confirmed) in 2004 to 1.0 million cases (92% confirmed) in 2018; however, cases increased steadily to 2.6 million confirmed cases (98% confirmed) in 2022. Plasmodium vivax cases and proportion have increased significantly in the past 5 years. Clinical malaria hotspots are concentrated along the western Ethiopian border areas and have grown significantly from 2017 to 2022. Major malaria outbreaks in 2022/23 were detected in multiple sites across Ethiopia, and An. stephensi was the predominant vector in some of these sites, however, it was absence from many of the outbreak sites.

Conclusions

The malaria burden has been significantly reduced in Ethiopia in the past two decades, but in recent years it has increased substantially, and the cause of such increase is a subject of further investigation. Major gaps exist in An. stephensi research, including vector ecology, surveillance, and control tools, especially for adult mosquito control.

Exposure to common infections may shape basal immunity and potentially HIV-1 acquisition amongst a high-risk population in Coastal Kenya

Introduction

The impact of exposure to endemic infections on basal immunity and susceptibility to HIV-1 acquisition remains uncertain. We hypothesized that exposure to infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), malaria and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in high-risk individuals may modulate immunity and subsequently increase susceptibility to HIV-1 acquisition.

Methods

A case-control study nested in an HIV-1 negative high-risk cohort from Coastal Kenya was used. Cases were defined as volunteers who tested HIV-1 positive during follow-up and had a plasma sample collected 3 ± 2 months prior to the estimated date of HIV-1 infection. Controls were individuals who remained HIV-1 negative during the follow-up and were matched 2:1 to cases by sex, age, risk group and follow-up time. STI screening was performed using microscopic and serologic tests. HIV-1 pre-infection plasma samples were used to determined exposure to CMV and malaria using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and to quantify forty-one cytokines and soluble factors using multiplexing assays. Multiplexing data were analyzed using principal component analysis. Associations between cytokines and soluble factors with subsequent HIV-1 acquisition were determined using conditional logistic regression models.

Results and discussion

Overall, samples from 47 cases and 94 controls were analyzed. While exposure to malaria (p=0.675) and CMV (p=0.470) were not associated with HIV-1 acquisition, exposure to STIs was (48% [95% CI, 33.3 - 63] vs. 26% [95% CI, 17.3 - 35.9]. Ten analytes were significantly altered in cases compared to controls and were clustered into four principal components: PC1 (VEGF, MIP-1β, VEGF-C and IL-4), PC2 (MCP-1, IL-2 and IL-12p70), PC3 (VEGF-D) and PC4 (Eotaxin-3). PC1, which is suggestive of a Th2-modulatory pathway, was significantly associated with HIV-1 acquisition after controlling for STIs (adjusted odds ratio, (95% CI), p-value: 1.51 [1.14 - 2.00], p=0.004). Elevation of Th2-associated pathways may dampen responses involved in viral immunity, leading to enhanced susceptibility to HIV-1 acquisition. Immunomodulatory interventions aimed at inhibiting activation of Th2-associated pathways may be an additional strategy to STI control for HIV-1 prevention and may reduce dampening of immune responses to vaccination.

Malaria attributable fractions with changing transmission intensity: Bayesian latent class vs logistic models

Background

Asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites is common in high transmission intensity areas and confounds clinical case definitions for research studies. This is important for investigations that aim to identify immune correlates of protection from clinical malaria. The proportion of fevers attributable to malaria parasites is widely used to define different thresholds of parasite density associated with febrile episodes. The varying intensity of malaria transmission was investigated to check whether it had a significant impact on the parasite density thresholds. The same dataset was used to explore an alternative statistical approach, using the probability of developing fevers as a choice over threshold cut-offs. The former has been reported to increase predictive power.

Methods

Data from children monitored longitudinally between 2005 and 2017 from Junju and Chonyi in Kilifi, Kenya were used. Performance comparison of Bayesian-latent class and logistic power models in estimating malaria attributable fractions and probabilities of having fever given a parasite density with changing malaria transmission intensity was done using Junju cohort. Zero-inflated beta regressions were used to assess the impact of using probabilities to evaluate anti-merozoite antibodies as correlates of protection, compared with multilevel binary regression using data from Chonyi and Junju.

Results

Malaria transmission intensity declined from over 49% to 5% between 2006 and 2017, respectively. During this period, malaria attributable fraction varied between 27–59% using logistic regression compared to 10–36% with the Bayesian latent class approach. Both models estimated similar patterns of fevers attributable to malaria with changing transmission intensities. The Bayesian latent class model performed well in estimating the probabilities of having fever, while the latter was efficient in determining the parasite density threshold. However, compared to the logistic power model, the Bayesian algorithm yielded lower estimates for both attributable fractions and probabilities of fever. In modelling the association of merozoite antibodies and clinical malaria, both approaches resulted in comparable estimates, but the utilization of probabilities had a better statistical fit.

Conclusions

Malaria attributable fractions, varied with an overall decline in the malaria transmission intensity in this setting but did not significantly impact the outcomes of analyses aimed at identifying immune correlates of protection. These data confirm the statistical advantage of using probabilities over binary data.

Qualitative study on the use and maintenance of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in Bouaké (Côte d'Ivoire), 17 months after the last mass distribution campaign

Background

The use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) is one of the main malaria prevention method promoted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Côte d'Ivoire. LLIN-coverage has reached 95% since 2015 and nearly 16 million LLINs were distributed in 2017. Despite these efforts, malaria incidence at the national level remains high (120‰ in 2012 to 164‰ in 2017) although this could be partly explained by increased screening efforts. This study aimed at determining what preventative measures were used against mosquito bites, as well as LLIN maintenance practices used by the inhabitants of the city of Bouaké, capital city of the Gbêkê region with a malaria incidence of 257‰ in 2017.

Methods

A descriptive qualitative investigation took place in Bouaké, in four neighbourhoods that were selected through purposive sampling based on their social composition. Data were collected using an interview guide based on convenience sampling.

Results

The results of the study reveal that LLINs are the most reported used malaria prevention measure (66.4%). Environmental health (28.8%) came second in their declarations, smoke coils (23.5%) third and aerosol cans (18.8%) last. The percentage of respondents who answered that they had slept under an LLIN the previous night was 53%. 57.7% reported that they wash their LLINs, 12.1% that they do not wash them, and 4% that they replace dirty LLINs with new ones. The LLINs washing methods described by the respondents did not comply with the WHO recommendations and there was no mention of LLINs repairs.

Conclusion

Despite mass distributions of LLINs in Côte d'Ivoire, this key malaria control tool remains under-used by the population. Regarding LLIN maintenance, more than half of the population reports that they wash their nets while not complying with recommended practices or repairing them.

Impact of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment for Malaria in Pregnancy on Hospital Birth Outcomes on the Kenyan Coast

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) for pregnant women with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is widely implemented for the prevention of malaria in pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. The efficacy of SP is declining, and there are concerns that IPTp may have reduced impact in areas of high resistance. We sought to determine the protection afforded by SP as part of IPTp against adverse birth outcomes in an area with high levels of SP resistance on the Kenyan coast.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of surveillance data on deliveries at the Kilifi County Hospital between 2015 and 2021 was undertaken in an area of low malaria transmission and high parasite mutations associated with SP resistance. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to estimate the effect of SP doses on the risk of low birthweight (LBW) deliveries and stillbirths.

RESULTS

Among 27 786 deliveries, 3 or more doses of IPTp-SP were associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-.83; P < .001) compared with no dose. A dose-response association was observed with increasing doses of SP from the second trimester linked to increasing protection against LBW deliveries. Three or more doses of IPTp-SP were also associated with a 21% reduction in stillbirth deliveries (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, .65-.97; P = .044) compared with women who did not take any dose of IPTp-SP.

CONCLUSIONS

The continued significant association of SP on LBW deliveries suggests that the intervention may have a non-malaria impact on pregnancy outcomes.

Neurological impairment and disability in children in rural Kenya

AIM

To investigate geographical change over time in the burden of neurological impairments in school-aged children in a demographic surveillance area.

METHOD

We investigated changes in neurological impairment prevalence in five domains (epilepsy and cognitive, hearing, vision, and motor impairments) using similar two-phase surveys conducted in 2001 (n=10 218) and 2015 (n=11 223) and determined changes in location-level prevalence, geographical clustering, and significant risk factors for children aged 6 to 9 years (mean 7y 6mo, SD 1y) of whom 50.4% were males. Admission trends for preterm birth, low birthweight (LBW), and encephalopathy were determined using admission data to a local hospital.

RESULTS

Overall prevalence for any neurological impairment decreased from 61 per 1000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.0-74.0) in 2001 to 44.7 per 1000 (95% CI 40.9-48.6) in 2015 (p<0.001). There was little evidence of geographical variation in the prevalence of neurological impairments in either survey. The association between neurological impairments and some risk factors changed significantly with year of survey; for example, the increased association of adverse perinatal events with hearing impairments (exponentiated coefficient for the interaction=5.94, p=0.03). Annual admission rates with preterm birth (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.07-1.09), LBW (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.06-1.10), and encephalopathy (rate ratio 1.08, range 1.06-1.09) significantly increased between 2005 and 2016 (p<0.001).

INTERPRETATION

There was a significant decline in the prevalence of neurological impairments and differential changes in the associations of some risk factors with neurological impairments over the study period. Limited geographical variation suggests that similar interventions are appropriate across the defined area.

The burden of neurological impairments and disability in older children measured in disability-adjusted life-years in rural Kenya

Neurological impairment (NI) and disability are common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the overall burden in terms of morbidity and mortality in older children remains unknown. We estimated the burden of NI in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for older children in a defined rural setting in Kenya. We used empirical and literature estimates to model the overall burden for children aged 5-14 years in five domains: epilepsy (lifetime and active) and moderate/severe cognitive, hearing, motor, and visual impairments. We obtained internally consistent estimates of prevalence, mortality, and transitional hazards using DisMod II software. Disability weights and life expectancy estimates were based on the global burden of disease (GBD) studies. We used the most plausible parameters to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs and their bootstrapped 95% uncertainty intervals (95%UI) for the defined area. NI in the five domains resulted in a total of 4587 (95%UI 4459-4715) absolute DALYs or 53 (95%UI 39-67) DALYs per 1000 children aged 5-14 years, of which 83% were YLLs and 17% YLDs. Girls had significantly more YLLs and DALYs than boys (p-values <0.001, respectively). Besides being the leading cause of fatal and non-fatal outcomes, epilepsy accounted for the greatest proportion of the total burden for a single domain (20 DALYs per 1000, 95%UI 11-26, or 38.5% of the total DALYs). Visual impairment accounted for the least proportion of the total burden (6 per 1000, 95%UI 1-17, or 12.1%). Children with NI and disability bear a significantly high burden of fatal and non-fatal outcomes. The burden is highest among girls and those with childhood-onset epilepsy. We recommend active identification, treatment, and rehabilitative support for the affected children to prevent premature mortality and improve their quality of life.

Spatio-temporal distribution of antimalarial drug resistant gene mutations in a Plasmodium falciparum parasite population from Kilifi, Kenya: A 25-year retrospective study

Background: Antimalarial drug resistance is a major obstacle to sustainable malaria control. Here we use amplicon sequencing to describe molecular markers of drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum parasites from Kilifi county in the coastal region of Kenya over a 25-year period. Methods: We performed P. falciparum amplicon sequencing on 1162 malaria-infected blood samples collected between 1994 and 2018 to identify markers of antimalarial drug resistance in the Pfcrt, Pfdhfr, Pfdhps, Pfmdr1, Pfexo, Pfkelch13, plasmepsin 2/3, Pfarps10, Pffd, and Pfmdr2 genes. We further interrogated parasite population structure using a genetic barcode of 101 drug resistance-unrelated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the genomes of 1245 P. falciparum parasites. Results: Two major changes occurred in the parasite population over the 25 years studied. In 1994, approximately 75% of parasites carried the marker of chloroquine resistance, CVIET. This increased to 100% in 1999 and then declined steadily, reaching 6.7% in 2018. Conversely, the quintuple mutation form of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance increased from 16.7% in 1994 to 83.6% in 2018. Several non-synonymous mutations were identified in the Kelch13 gene, although none of them are currently associated with artemisinin resistance. We observed a temporal increase in the Pfmdr1 NFD haplotype associated with lumefantrine resistance, but observed no evidence of piperaquine resistance. SNPs in other parts of the genome showed no significant temporal changes despite the marked changes in drug resistance loci over this period. Conclusions: We identified substantial changes in molecular markers of P. falciparum drug resistance over 25 years in coastal Kenya, but no associated changes in the parasite population structure.

10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

Genetic markers associated with insecticide resistance and resting behaviour in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes in selected sites in Kenya

Background

Molecular diagnostic tools have been incorporated in insecticide resistance monitoring programmes to identify underlying genetic basis of resistance and develop early warning systems of vector control failure. Identifying genetic markers of insecticide resistance is crucial in enhancing the ability to mitigate potential effects of resistance. The knockdown resistance (kdr) mutation associated with resistance to DDT and pyrethroids, the acetylcholinesterase-1 (ace-1^R) mutation associated with resistance to organophosphates and carbamates and 2La chromosomal inversion associated with indoor resting behaviour, were investigated in the present study.

Methods

Anopheles mosquitoes sampled from different sites in Kenya and collected within the context of malaria vector surveillance were analysed. Mosquitoes were collected indoors using light traps, pyrethrum spray and hand catches between August 2016 and November 2017. Mosquitoes were identified using morphological keys and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes further identified into sibling species by the polymerase chain reaction method following DNA extraction by alcohol precipitation. Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis were analysed for the presence of the kdr and ace-1^R mutations, while 2La inversion was only screened for in An. gambiae where it is polymorphic. Chi-square statistics were used to determine correlation between the 2La inversion karyotype and kdr-east mutation.

Results

The kdr-east mutation occurred at frequencies ranging from 0.5 to 65.6% between sites. The kdr-west mutation was only found in Migori at a total frequency of 5.3% (n = 124). No kdr mutants were detected in Tana River. The ace-1^R mutation was absent in all populations. The 2La chromosomal inversion screened in An. gambiae occurred at frequencies of 87% (n = 30), 80% (n = 10) and 52% (n = 50) in Baringo, Tana River and Migori, respectively. A significant association between the 2La chromosomal inversion and the kdr-east mutation was found.

Conclusion

The significant association between the 2La inversion karyotype and kdr-east mutation suggests that pyrethroid resistant An. gambiae continue to rest indoors regardless of the presence of treated bed nets and residual sprays, a persistence further substantiated by studies documenting continued mosquito abundance indoors. Behavioural resistance by which Anopheles vectors prefer not to rest indoors may, therefore, not be a factor of concern in this study’s malaria vector populations.

10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

The impact of child health interventions and risk factors on child survival in Kenya, 1993-2014: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactual scenarios

BACKGROUND

During the millennium development goals period, reduction in under-five mortality (U5M) and increases in child health intervention coverage were characterised by sub-national disparities and inequities across Kenya. The contribution of changing risk factors and intervention coverage on the sub-national changes in U5M remains poorly defined.

METHODS

Sub-national county-level data on U5M and 43 factors known to be associated with U5M spanning 1993 and 2014 were assembled. Using a Bayesian ecological mixed-effects regression model, the relationships between U5M and significant intervention and infection risk ecological factors were quantified across 47 sub-national counties. The coefficients generated were used within a counterfactual framework to estimate U5M and under-five deaths averted (U5-DA) for every county and year (1993-2014) associated with changes in the coverage of interventions and disease infection prevalence relative to 1993.

RESULTS

Nationally, the stagnation and increase in U5M in the 1990s were associated with rising human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and reduced maternal autonomy while improvements after 2006 were associated with a decline in the prevalence of HIV and malaria, increase in access to better sanitation, fever treatment-seeking rates and maternal autonomy. Reduced stunting and increased coverage of early breastfeeding and institutional deliveries were associated with a smaller number of U5-DA compared to other factors while a reduction in high parity and fully immunised children were associated with under-five lives lost. Most of the U5-DA occurred after 2006 and varied spatially across counties. The highest number of U5-DA was recorded in western and coastal Kenya while northern Kenya recorded a lower number of U5-DA than western. Central Kenya had the lowest U5-DA. The deaths averted across the different regions were associated with a unique set of factors.

CONCLUSION

Contributions of interventions and risk factors to changing U5M vary sub-nationally. This has important implications for targeting future interventions within decentralised health systems such as those operated in Kenya. Targeting specific factors where U5M has been high and intervention coverage poor would lead to the highest likelihood of sub-national attainment of sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.2 on U5M in Kenya.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions

Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.

10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

Subnational estimates of factors associated with under-five mortality in Kenya: a spatio-temporal analysis, 1993-2014

BACKGROUND

To improve child survival, it is necessary to describe and understand the spatial and temporal variation of factors associated with child survival beyond national aggregates, anchored at decentralised health planning units. Therefore, we aimed to provide subnational estimates of factors associated with child survival while elucidating areas of progress, stagnation and decline in Kenya.

METHODS

Twenty household surveys and three population censuses conducted since 1989 were assembled and spatially aligned to 47 subnational Kenyan county boundaries. Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression models accounting for inadequate sample size and spatio-temporal relatedness were fitted for 43 factors at county level between 1993 and 2014.

RESULTS

Nationally, the coverage and prevalence were highly variable with 38 factors recording an improvement. The absolute percentage change (1993-2014) was heterogeneous ranging between 1% and 898%. At the county level, the estimates varied across space and over time with a majority showing improvements after 2008 which was preceded by a period of deterioration (late-1990 to early-2000). Counties in Northern Kenya were consistently observed to have lower coverage of interventions and remained disadvantaged in 2014 while areas around Central Kenya had and historically have had higher coverage across all intervention domains. Most factors in Western and South-East Kenya recorded moderate intervention coverage although having a high infection prevalence of both HIV and malaria.

CONCLUSION

The heterogeneous estimates necessitates prioritisation of the marginalised counties to achieve health equity and improve child survival uniformly across the country. Efforts are required to narrow the gap between counties across all the drivers of child survival. The generated estimates will facilitate improved benchmarking and establish a baseline for monitoring child development goals at subnational level.

Endemic chikungunya fever in Kenyan children: a prospective cohort study

Background

Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) was first described in Tanzania in 1952. Several epidemics including East Africa have occurred, but there are no descriptions of longitudinal surveillance of endemic disease. Here, we estimate the incidence of CHIKF in coastal Kenya and describe the associated viral phylogeny.

Methods

We monitored acute febrile illnesses among 3500 children visiting two primary healthcare facilities in coastal Kenya over a 5-year period (2014–2018). Episodes were linked to a demographic surveillance system and blood samples obtained. Cross-sectional sampling in a community survey of a different group of 435 asymptomatic children in the same study location was done in 2016. Reverse-transcriptase PCR was used for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) screening, and viral genomes sequenced for phylogenetic analyses.

Results

We found CHIKF to be endemic in this setting, associated with 12.7% (95% CI 11.60, 13.80) of all febrile presentations to primary healthcare. The prevalence of CHIKV infections among asymptomatic children in the community survey was 0.7% (95% CI 0.22, 2.12). CHIKF incidence among children < 1 year of age was 1190 cases/100,000-person years and 63 cases/100,000-person years among children aged ≥10 years. Recurrent CHIKF episodes, associated with fever and viraemia, were observed among 19 of 170 children with multiple febrile episodes during the study period. All sequenced viral genomes mapped to the ECSA genotype albeit distinct from CHIKV strains associated with the 2004 East African epidemic.

Conclusions

CHIKF may be a substantial public health burden in primary healthcare on the East African coast outside epidemic years, and recurrent infections are common.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-05875-5.

Antibody Responses to Crude Gametocyte Extract Predict Plasmodium falciparum Gametocyte Carriage in Kenya

Background

Malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum remains a serious global public health challenge especially in Africa. Interventions that aim to reduce malaria transmission by targeting the gametocyte reservoir are key to malaria elimination and/or eradication. However, factors that are associated with gametocyte carriage have not been fully explored. Consequently, identifying predictors of the infectious reservoir is fundamental in the elimination campaign.

Methods

We cultured P. falciparum NF54 gametocytes (to stage V) and prepared crude gametocyte extract. Samples from a total of 687 participants (aged 6 months to 67 years) representing two cross-sectional study cohorts in Kilifi, Kenya were used to assess IgG antibody responses by ELISA. We also analyzed IgG antibody responses to the blood-stage antigen AMA1 as a marker of asexual parasite exposure. Gametocytemia and asexual parasitemia data quantified by microscopy and molecular detection (QT-NASBA) were used to determine the relationship with antibody responses, season, age, and transmission setting. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study the association between antibody responses and gametocyte carriage. The predictive power of the models was tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that IgG antibody response to crude gametocyte extract predicted both microscopic (OR=1.81 95% CI: 1.06-3.07, p=0.028) and molecular (OR=1.91, 95% CI: 1.11-3.29, p=0.019) P. falciparum gametocyte carriage. Antibody responses to AMA1 were also associated with both microscopic (OR=1.61 95% CI: 1.08-2.42, p=0.020) and molecular (OR=3.73 95% CI: 2.03-6.74, p<0.001) gametocytemia. ROC analysis showed that molecular (AUC=0.897, 95% CI: 0.868-0.926) and microscopic (AUC=0.812, 95% CI: 0.758-0.865) multivariable models adjusted for gametocyte extract showed very high predictive power. Molecular (AUC=0.917, 95% CI: 0.891-0.943) and microscopic (AUC=0.806, 95% CI: 0.755-0.858) multivariable models adjusted for AMA1 were equally highly predictive.

Conclusion

In our study, it appears that IgG responses to crude gametocyte extract are not an independent predictor of gametocyte carriage after adjusting for AMA1 responses but may predict gametocyte carriage as a proxy marker of exposure to parasites. Serological responses to AMA1 or to gametocyte extract may facilitate identification of individuals within populations who contribute to malaria transmission and support implementation of transmission-blocking interventions.

Evaluating the impact of larviciding with Bti and community education and mobilization as supplementary integrated vector management interventions for malaria control in Kenya and Ethiopia

Background

Malaria prevention in Africa is mainly through the use of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs). The objective of the study was to assess the effect of supplementing LLINs with either larviciding with Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) or community education and mobilization (CEM), or with both interventions in the context of integrated vector management (IVM).

Methods

The study involved a factorial, cluster-randomized, controlled trial conducted in Malindi and Nyabondo sites in Kenya and Tolay site in Ethiopia, to assess the impact of the following four intervention options on mosquitoes and malaria prevalence: LLINs only (arm 1); LLINs and Bti (arm 2); LLINs and CEM (arm 3); and, LLINs combined with Bti and CEM (arm 4). Between January 2013 and December 2015, CDC light traps were used to sample adult mosquitoes during the second, third and fourth quarter of each year in 10 houses in each of 16 villages at each of the three study sites. Larvae were sampled once a fortnight from potential mosquito-breeding habitats using standard plastic dippers. Cross-sectional malaria parasite prevalence surveys were conducted involving a total of 11,846 primary school children during the 3-year period, including 4800 children in Tolay, 3000 in Malindi and 4046 in Nyabondo study sites.

Results

Baseline relative indoor anopheline density was 0.11, 0.05 and 0.02 mosquitoes per house per night in Malindi, Tolay and Nyabondo sites, respectively. Nyabondo had the highest recorded overall average malaria prevalence among school children at 32.4%, followed by Malindi with 5.7% and Tolay 1.7%. There was no significant reduction in adult anopheline density at each of the three sites, which could be attributed to adding of the supplementary interventions to the usage of LLINs. Malaria prevalence was significantly reduced by 50% in Tolay when using LLINs coupled with application of Bti, community education and mobilization. The two other sites did not reveal significant reduction of prevalence as a result of combining LLINs with any of the other supplementary interventions.

Conclusion

Combining LLINs with larviciding with Bti and CEM further reduced malaria infection in a low prevalence setting in Ethiopia, but not at sites with relatively higher prevalence in Kenya. More research is necessary at the selected sites in Kenya to periodically determine the suite of vector control interventions and broader disease management strategies, which when integrated would further reduce adult anopheline populations and malaria prevalence beyond what is achieved with LLINs.

No Evidence of Acute Dengue Virus Infections at a Rural Site in Western Kenya, 2011 and 2013

The incidence and spread of dengue virus (DENV) have increased rapidly in recent decades. Dengue is underreported in Africa, but recent outbreaks and seroprevalence data suggest that DENV is widespread there. A lack of ongoing surveillance limits knowledge about its spatial reach and hinders disease control planning. We sought to add data on dengue distribution in Kenya through diagnostic testing of serum specimens from persons with an acute febrile illness (AFI) attending an outpatient clinic in rural western Kenya (Asembo) during rainy seasons. Patients with symptoms not likely to be misclassified as dengue (e.g., diarrhea and anemia), those with a positive diagnostic laboratory results which explained their febrile illness, or those with serum collected more than 5 days after fever onset were excluded. However, febrile patients with a positive malaria smear were included in the study. We used reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for DENV and IgM anti-DENV to test for recent infection. Of the 615 serum specimens available for testing, none were dengue positive by either RT-PCR or IgM anti-DENV testing. Dengue did not appear to be a cause of febrile illness in this area of western Kenya, although our relatively small sample size may not have identified DENV infections occurring at low incidence. A more widespread AFI surveillance system that includes dengue diagnostic testing by RT-PCR and antibody-based methods is required to more definitively gauge the size and geographic distribution of DENV infection in western Kenya.

Predictors of health workers' knowledge about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations in government and faith-based hospitals in Kenya

Background

Health workers’ knowledge deficiencies about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations have been reported. However, predictors of the treatment knowledge have not been examined. In this paper, predictors of artesunate-based treatment knowledge among inpatient health workers in two hospital sectors in Kenya are reported.

Methods

Secondary analysis of 367 and 330 inpatient health workers randomly selected and interviewed at 47 government hospitals in 2016 and 43 faith-based hospitals in 2017 respectively, was undertaken. Multilevel ordinal and binary logistic regressions examining the effects of 11 factors on five knowledge outcomes in government and faith-based hospital sectors were performed.

Results

Among respective government and faith-based health workers, about a third of health workers had high knowledge of artesunate treatment policies (30.8% vs 32.9%), a third knew all dosing intervals (33.5% vs 33.3%), about half knew preparation solutions (49.9% vs 55.8%), half to two-thirds knew artesunate dose for both weight categories (50.8% vs 66.7%) and over three-quarters knew the preferred route of administration (78.7% vs 82.4%). Eight predictors were significantly associated with at least one of the examined knowledge outcomes. In the government sector, display of artesunate administration posters, paediatric ward allocation and repeated surveys were significantly associated with more than one of the knowledge outcomes. In the faith-based hospitals, availability of artesunate at hospitals and health worker pre-service training were associated with multiple outcomes. Exposure to in-service malaria case-management training and access to malaria guidelines were only associated with higher knowledge about artesunate treatment policy.

Conclusion

Programmatic interventions ensuring display of artesunate administration posters in the wards, targeting of health workers managing adult patients in the medical wards, and repeated knowledge assessments are likely to be beneficial for improving the knowledge of government health workers about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations. The availability of artesunate and focus on improvements of nurses’ knowledge should be prioritized at the faith-based hospitals.

Serologic Markers of Previous Malaria Exposure and Functional Antibodies Inhibiting Parasite Growth Are Associated With Parasite Kinetics Following a Plasmodium falciparum Controlled Human Infection

BACKGROUND

We assessed the impact of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum on parasite kinetics, clinical symptoms, and functional immunity after controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) in 2 cohorts with different levels of previous malarial exposure.

METHODS

Nine adult males with high (sero-high) and 10 with low (sero-low) previous exposure received 3200 P. falciparum sporozoites (PfSPZ) of PfSPZ Challenge by direct venous inoculation and were followed for 35 days for parasitemia by thick blood smear (TBS) and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Endpoints were time to parasitemia, adverse events, and immune responses.

RESULTS

Ten of 10 (100%) volunteers in the sero-low and 7 of 9 (77.8%) in the sero-high group developed parasitemia detected by TBS in the first 28 days (P = .125). The median time to parasitemia was significantly shorter in the sero-low group than the sero-high group (9 days [interquartile range {IQR} 7.5-11.0] vs 11.0 days [IQR 7.5-18.0], respectively; log-rank test, P = .005). Antibody recognition of sporozoites was significantly higher in the sero-high (median, 17.93 [IQR 12.95-24] arbitrary units [AU]) than the sero-low volunteers (median, 10.54 [IQR, 8.36-12.12] AU) (P = .006). Growth inhibitory activity was significantly higher in the sero-high (median, 21.8% [IQR, 8.15%-29.65%]) than in the sero-low group (median, 8.3% [IQR, 5.6%-10.23%]) (P = .025).

CONCLUSIONS

CHMI was safe and well tolerated in this population. Individuals with serological evidence of higher malaria exposure were able to better control infection and had higher parasite growth inhibitory activity.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT03496454.

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal patterns of genetic differences between Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in Kilifi County, Kenya

Knowledge of how malaria infections spread locally is important both for the design of targeted interventions aiming to interrupt malaria transmission and the design of trials to assess the interventions. A previous analysis of 1602 genotyped Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Kilifi, Kenya collected over 12 years found an interaction between time and geographic distance: the mean number of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences was lower for pairs of infections which were both a shorter time interval and shorter geographic distance apart. We determine whether the empiric pattern could be reproduced by a simple model, and what mean geographic distances between parent and offspring infections and hypotheses about genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections would be consistent with the data. We developed an individual-based stochastic simulation model of households, people and infections. We parameterized the model for the total number of infections, and population and household density observed in Kilifi. The acquisition of new infections, mutation, recombination, geographic location and clearance were included. We fit the model to the observed numbers of SNP differences between pairs of parasite genotypes. The patterns observed in the empiric data could be reproduced. Although we cannot rule out genotype-specific immunity or a limit on the number of infections per individual, they are not necessary to account for the observed patterns. The mean geographic distance between parent and offspring malaria infections for the base model was 0.5 km (95% CI 0.3-1.5), for a distribution with 68% of distances shorter than the mean. Very short mean distances did not fit well, but mixtures of distributions were also consistent with the data. For a pathogen which undergoes meiosis in a setting with moderate transmission and a low coverage of infections, analytic methods are limited but an individual-based model can be used with genotyping data to estimate parameter values and investigate hypotheses about underlying processes.

Observational study: 27 years of severe malaria surveillance in Kilifi, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Many parts of Africa have witnessed reductions in Plasmodium falciparum transmission over the last 15 years. Since immunity to malaria is acquired more rapidly at higher transmission, the slower acquisition of immunity at lower transmission may partially offset the benefits of reductions in transmission. We examined the clinical spectrum of disease and predictors of mortality after sustained changes in transmission intensity, using data collected from 1989 to 2016.

METHODS

We conducted a temporal observational analysis of 18,000 children, aged 14 days to 14 years old, who were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 1989 to 2016 with malaria. We describe the trends over time of the clinical and laboratory criteria for severe malaria and associated risk of mortality.

RESULTS

During the time periods 1989-2003, 2004-2008, and 2009-2016, Kilifi County Hospital admitted averages of 657, 310, and 174 cases of severe malaria per year including averages of 48, 14, and 12 malaria-associated deaths per year, respectively. The median ages in years of children admitted with cerebral malaria, severe anaemia, and malaria-associated mortality were 3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-3.9), 1.1 (95% CI 0.9-1.4), and 1.1 (95% CI 0.3-2.2) in the year 1989, rising to 4.9 (95% CI 3.9-5.9), 3.8 (95% CI 2.5-7.1), and 5 (95% CI 3.3-6.3) in the year 2016. The ratio of children with cerebral malaria to severe anaemia rose from 1:2 before 2004 to 3:2 after 2009. Hyperparasitaemia was a risk factor for death after 2009 but not in earlier time periods.

CONCLUSION

Despite the evidence of slower acquisition of immunity, continued reductions in the numbers of cases of severe malaria resulted in lower overall mortality. Our temporal data are limited to a single site, albeit potentially applicable to a secular trend present in many parts of Africa.

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP): factors associated with childhood parasitaemia and anaemia 3 years after a national long-lasting insecticidal net distribution campaign: a cross-sectional survey

Background

Recent reductions in malaria burden have been attributed largely to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). In March–June 2017, approximately 3 years after a national LLIN distribution campaign, a cross-sectional community survey was conducted to investigate factors associated with malaria parasitaemia and anaemia, in advance of Uganda’s 2017–2018 LLIN campaign.

Methods

Households from 104 clusters in 48 districts were randomly selected using two-staged cluster sampling; 50 households were enrolled per cluster. Eligible children aged 2–10 years had blood obtained for a thick blood smear and those aged 2–4 years had haemoglobin measured. Associations between outcomes and variables of interest were assessed using log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations to adjust for household clustering.

Results

In total, 5196 households, 8834 children with blood smear results, and 3753 with haemoglobin results were included. Only 16% of children lived in households with adequate LLIN coverage. Overall, parasite prevalence was 26.0%, ranging from 8.0% in the South West to 53.1% in East Central. Limiting data to children 2–4 years of age, parasite prevalence was 21.4%, up from 16.9% in 2014–2015 following the national LLIN campaign. In a multivariate analysis, factors associated with parasitaemia included region (East-Central vs South-Western; adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 6.45, 95% CI 5.55–7.50; p < 0.001), older age (8–10 vs 2–3 years; aPR 1.57, 95% CI 1.43–1.72; p < 0.001), living in a poorer household (poorest vs least poor tercile; aPR 2.32, 95% CI 2.05–2.63; p < 0.001), one constructed of traditional materials (aPR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.24; p = 0.008), or without adequate LLIN coverage (aPR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48; p < 0.001). Overall, the prevalence of anaemia (haemoglobin < 10 g/dL) was 15.1% and varied geographically. In a multivariate analysis, factors associated with anaemia included region, younger age, living in a traditional house, and parasitaemia, which was the strongest predictor (aPR 2.50, 95% CI 2.12–2.95; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Three years after a national LLIN campaign, LLIN coverage was low and parasite prevalence had increased. Parasite prevalence varied widely across Uganda; older children, those living in poorer households, and those with inadequate LLIN coverage, were at highest risk of parasitaemia. LLINs may need to be distributed more frequently through mass campaigns or continuously through sustainable mechanisms. Targeting interventions to geographic areas and populations at highest risk should also be considered.

Gametocyte carriage in an era of changing malaria epidemiology: A 19-year analysis of a malaria longitudinal cohort

Background: Interventions to block malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are currently in development. To be successfully implemented, key populations need to be identified where the use of these transmission-blocking and/or reducing strategies will have greatest impact.

Methods: We used data from a longitudinally monitored cohort of children from Kilifi county located along the Kenyan coast collected between 1998-2016 to describe the distribution and prevalence of gametocytaemia in relation to transmission intensity, time and age. Data from 2,223 children accounting for 9,134 person-years of follow-up assessed during cross-sectional surveys for asexual parasites and gametocytes were used in logistic regression models to identify factors predictive of gametocyte carriage in this cohort.

Results: Our analysis showed that children 1-5 years of age were more likely to carry microscopically detectable gametocytes than their older counterparts. Carrying asexual parasites and recent episodes of clinical malaria were also strong predictors of gametocyte carriage. The prevalence of asexual parasites and of gametocyte carriage declined over time, and after 2006, when artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) was introduced, recent episodes of clinical malaria ceased to be a predictor of gametocyte carriage. 

Conclusions: Gametocyte carriage in children in Kilifi has fallen over time.  Previous episodes of clinical malaria may contribute to the development of carriage, but this appears to be mitigated by the use of ACTs highlighting the impact that gametocidal antimalarials can have in reducing the overall prevalence of gametocytaemia when targeted on acute febrile illness.

Gametocyte carriage in an era of changing malaria epidemiology: A 19-year analysis of a malaria longitudinal cohort

Background: Interventions to block malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are currently in development. To be successfully implemented, key populations need to be identified where the use of these transmission-blocking and/or reducing strategies will have greatest impact. Methods: We used data from a longitudinally monitored cohort of children from Kilifi county located along the Kenyan coast collected between 1998-2016 to describe the distribution and prevalence of gametocytaemia in relation to transmission intensity, time and age. Data from 2,223 children accounting for 9,134 person-years of follow-up assessed during cross-sectional surveys for asexual parasites and gametocytes were used in logistic regression models to identify factors predictive of gametocyte carriage in this cohort. Results: Our analysis showed that children 1-5 years of age were more likely to carry microscopically detectable gametocytes than their older counterparts. Carrying asexual parasites and recent episodes of clinical malaria were also strong predictors of gametocyte carriage. The prevalence of asexual parasites and of gametocyte carriage declined over time, and after 2006, when artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) was introduced, recent episodes of clinical malaria ceased to be a predictor of gametocyte carriage.  Conclusions: Gametocyte carriage in children in Kilifi has fallen over time.  Previous episodes of clinical malaria may contribute to the development of carriage, but this appears to be mitigated by the use of ACTs highlighting the impact that gametocidal antimalarials can have in reducing the overall prevalence of gametocytaemia when targeted on acute febrile illness.

Effect of Previous Exposure to Malaria on Blood Pressure in Kilifi, Kenya: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background Malaria exposure in childhood may contribute to high blood pressure ( BP ) in adults. We used sickle cell trait ( SCT ) and α+thalassemia, genetic variants conferring partial protection against malaria, as tools to test this hypothesis. Methods and Results Study sites were Kilifi, Kenya, which has malaria transmission, and Nairobi, Kenya, and Jackson, Mississippi, where there is no malaria transmission. The primary outcome was 24-hour systolic BP. Prevalent hypertension, diagnosed using European Society of Hypertension thresholds was a secondary outcome. We performed regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. We studied 1127 participants in Kilifi, 516 in Nairobi, and 651 in Jackson. SCT frequency was 21% in Kilifi, 16% in Nairobi, and 9% in Jackson. SCT was associated with -2.4 (95% CI , -4.7 to -0.2) mm Hg lower 24-hour systolic BP in Kilifi but had no effect in Nairobi/Jackson. The effect of SCT in Kilifi was limited to 30- to 59-year-old participants, among whom it was associated with -6.1 mm Hg ( CI , -10.5 to -1.8) lower 24-hour systolic BP. In pooled analysis allowing interaction by site, the effect of SCT on 24-hour systolic BP in Kilifi was -3.5 mm Hg ( CI , -6.9 to -0.1), increasing to -5.2 mm Hg ( CI , -9.5 to -0.9) when replacing estimated glomerular filtration rate with urine albumin to creatinine ratio as a covariate. In Kilifi, the prevalence ratio for hypertension was 0.86 ( CI , 0.76-0.98) for SCT and 0.89 ( CI , 0.80-0.99) for α+thalassemia. Conclusions Lifelong malaria protection is associated with lower BP in Kilifi. Confirmation of this finding at other sites and elucidating the mechanisms involved may yield new preventive and therapeutic targets.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum in Kenyan-Ugandan border areas

Kenya has, in the last decade, made tremendous progress in the fight against malaria. Nevertheless, continued surveillance of the genetic diversity and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum is required to refine malaria control and to adapt and improve elimination strategies. Twelve neutral microsatellite loci were genotyped in 201 P. falciparum isolates obtained from the Kenyan-Ugandan border (Busia) and from two inland malaria-endemic sites situated in western (Nyando) and coastal (Msambweni) Kenya. Analyses were done to assess the genetic diversity (allelic richness and expected heterozygosity, [H_e ]), multilocus linkage disequilibrium ( I S A ) and population structure. A similarly high degree of genetic diversity was observed among the three parasite populations surveyed (mean H_e  = 0.76; P > 0.05). Except in Msambweni, random association of microsatellite loci was observed, indicating high parasite out-breeding. Low to moderate genetic structure (F_ST   = 0.022-0.076; P < 0.0001) was observed with only 5% variance in allele frequencies observed among the populations. This study shows that the genetic diversity of P. falciparum populations at the Kenyan-Ugandan border is comparable to the parasite populations from inland Kenya. In addition, high genetic diversity, panmixia and weak population structure in this study highlight the fitness of Kenyan P. falciparum populations to successfully withstand malaria control interventions.

Predicting the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on malaria in coastal Kenya

Background

The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya.

Methods and findings

We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios.

Under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO₂], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO₂] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density.

Conclusions

Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO₂] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified 6 hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people were asleep was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoors asleep. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were asleep was consistently high across all locations, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited.

Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness.

Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified 6 hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people were asleep was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoors asleep. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were asleep was consistently high across all locations, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00.

Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained significant modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified significant hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people are indoor was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoor. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were indoor was consistently high, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data do not provide evidence of an epidemiological association between microgeographical variations in ITN effectiveness and variations in the microgeographical distribution of outdoor biting.

Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease.

Methods

We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016.

Findings

The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8–871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1–596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1–101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9–51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9–399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1–335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7–7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016.

Interpretation

Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Relationship between Flooding and Out Break of Infectious Diseasesin Kenya: A Review of the Literature

Flooding can potentially increase the spread of infectious diseases. To enhance good understanding of the health consequences of flooding and facilitate planning for mitigation strategies, deeper consideration of the relationship between flooding and out-break of infectious diseases is required. This paper examines the relationship between occurrence of floods in Kenya and outbreak of infectious diseases and possible interventions. This review intended to build up the quality and comprehensiveness of evidence on infectious diseases arising after flooding incidence in Kenya. An extensive literature review was conducted in 2017, and published literature from 2000 to 2017 was retrieved. This review suggests that infectious disease outbreaks such as waterborne, rodent-borne, and vector-borne diseases have been associated with flooding in Kenya. But there is need for more good quality epidemiological data to cement the evidence. Comprehensive surveillance and risk assessment, early warning systems, emergency planning, and well-coordinated collaborations are essential in reducing future vulnerability to infectious diseases following flooding.

Spatio-temporal analysis of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence to understand the past and chart the future of malaria control in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Spatial and temporal malaria risk maps are essential tools to monitor the impact of control, evaluate priority areas to reorient intervention approaches and investments in malaria endemic countries. Here, the analysis of 36 years data on Plasmodium falciparum prevalence is used to understand the past and chart a future for malaria control in Kenya by confidently highlighting areas within important policy relevant thresholds to allow either the revision of malaria strategies to those that support pre-elimination or those that require additional control efforts.

METHODS

Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR) surveys undertaken in Kenya between 1980 and 2015 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) at 1 × 1 km spatial resolution from 1990 to 2015. Changing PfPR2-10 was compared against plausible explanatory variables. The fitted model was used to categorize areas with varying degrees of prediction probability for two important policy thresholds PfPR2-10 < 1% (non-exceedance probability) or ≥ 30% (exceedance probability).

RESULTS

5020 surveys at 3701 communities were assembled. Nationally, there was an 88% reduction in the mean modelled PfPR2-10 from 21.2% (ICR: 13.8-32.1%) in 1990 to 2.6% (ICR: 1.8-3.9%) in 2015. The most significant decline began in 2003. Declining prevalence was not equal across the country and did not directly coincide with scaled vector control coverage or changing therapeutics. Over the period 2013-2015, of Kenya's 47 counties, 23 had an average PfPR2-10 of < 1%; four counties remained ≥ 30%. Using a metric of 80% probability, 8.5% of Kenya's 2015 population live in areas with PfPR2-10 ≥ 30%; while 61% live in areas where PfPR2-10 is < 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Kenya has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last 26 years. Areas today confidently and consistently with < 1% prevalence require a revised approach to control and a possible consideration of strategies that support pre-elimination. Conversely, there remains several intractable areas where current levels and approaches to control might be inadequate. The modelling approaches presented here allow the Ministry of Health opportunities to consider data-driven model certainty in defining their future spatial targeting of resources.

Unexpectedly high Plasmodium sporozoite rate associated with low human blood index in Anopheles coluzzii from a LLIN-protected village in Burkina Faso

Despite the effectiveness of mass distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) in reducing malaria transmission in Africa, in hyperendemic areas such as Burkina Faso the burden of malaria remains high. We here report the results of a 4-month survey on the feeding habits and Plasmodium infection in malaria vectors from a village in Burkina Faso one year following a national LLIN distribution programme. Low values of human blood index (HBI) observed in the major malaria vectors in the area (Anopheles coluzzii: N = 263, 20.1%; An. arabiensis: 5.8%, N = 103) are consistent with the hypothesis that LLINs reduced the availability of human hosts to mosquitoes. A regression meta-analysis of data from a systematic review of published studies reporting HBI and sporozoite rates (SR) for An. gambiae complex revealed that the observed SR values (An. coluzzii: 7.6%, N = 503; An. arabiensis: 5.3%, N = 225) are out of the ranges expected based on the low HBI observed. We hypothesize that a small fraction of inhabitants unprotected by bednets acts as a "core group" repeatedly exposed to mosquito bites, representing the major Plasmodium reservoir for the vectors, able to maintain a high risk of transmission even in a village protected by LLINs.

Trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in two communities of Muheza district North-eastern Tanzania: correlation between parasite prevalence, malaria interventions and rainfall in the context of re-emergence of malaria after two decades of progressively declining transmission

Background

Although the recent decline of malaria burden in some African countries has been attributed to a scale-up of interventions, such as bed nets (insecticide-treated bed nets, ITNs/long-lasting insecticidal nets, LLINs), the contribution of other factors to these changes has not been rigorously assessed. This study assessed the trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Magoda (1992–2017) and Mpapayu (1998–2017) villages of Muheza district, North-eastern Tanzania, in relation to changes in the levels of different interventions and rainfall patterns.

Methods

Individuals aged 0–19 years were recruited in cross-sectional surveys to determine the prevalence of P. falciparum infections in relation to different malaria interventions deployed, particularly bed nets and anti-malarial drugs. Trends and patterns of rainfall in Muheza for 35 years (from 1981 to 2016) were assessed to determine changes in the amount and pattern of rainfall and their possible impacts on P. falciparum prevalence besides of those ascribed to interventions.

Results

High prevalence (84–54%) was reported between 1992 and 2000 in Magoda, and 1998 and 2000 in Mpapayu, but it declined sharply from 2001 to 2004 (from 52.0 to 25.0%), followed by a progressive decline between 2008 and 2012 (to ≤ 7% in both villages). However, the prevalence increased significantly from 2013 to 2016 reaching ≥ 20.0% in 2016 (both villages), but declined in the two villages to ≤ 13% in 2017. Overall and age specific P. falciparum prevalence decreased in both villages over the years but with a peak prevalence shifting from children aged 5–9 years to those aged 10–19 years from 2008 onwards. Bed net coverage increased from < 4% in 1998 to > 98% in 2001 and was ≥ 85.0% in 2004 in both villages; followed by fluctuations with coverage ranging from 35.0 to ≤ 98% between 2008 and 2017. The 12-month weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index showed a marked rainfall deficit in 1990–1996 and 1999–2010 coinciding with declining prevalence and despite relatively high bed net coverage from 2000. From 1992, the risk of infection decreased steadily up to 2013 when the lowest risk was observed (RR = 0.07; 95% CI 0.06–0.08, P < 0.001), but it was significantly higher during periods with positive rainfall anomalies (RR = 2.79; 95% CI 2.23–3.50, P < 0.001). The risk was lower among individuals not owning bed nets compared to those with nets (RR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.22–1.49, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

A decline in prevalence up to 2012 and resurgence thereafter was likely associated with changes in monthly rainfall, offset against changing malaria interventions. A sustained surveillance covering multiple factors needs to be undertaken and climate must be taken into consideration when relating control interventions to malaria prevalence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2395-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Stochastic lattice-based modelling of malaria dynamics

BACKGROUND

The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. In addition, the dispersal of Anopheles mosquitoes is a key determinant that affects the persistence and dynamics of malaria. Simple, lumped-population models of malaria prevalence have been insufficient for predicting the complex responses of malaria to environmental changes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A stochastic lattice-based model that couples a mosquito dispersal and a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemics model was developed for predicting the dynamics of malaria in heterogeneous environments. The It[Formula: see text] approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motion was used to derive a model of stochastic differential equations. The results show that stochastic equations that capture uncertainties in the life cycle of mosquitoes and interactions among vectors, parasites, and hosts provide a mechanism for the disruptions of malaria. Finally, model simulations for a case study in the rural area of Kilifi county, Kenya are presented.

CONCLUSIONS

A stochastic lattice-based integrated malaria model has been developed. The applicability of the model for capturing the climate-driven hydrologic factors and demographic variability on malaria transmission has been demonstrated.

Geostatistical Methods for Disease Mapping and Visualisation Using Data from Spatio-temporally Referenced Prevalence Surveys

In this paper, we set out general principles and develop geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Our objective is to provide a tutorial guide that can be used in order to identify parsimonious geostatistical models for prevalence mapping. A general variogram-based Monte Carlo procedure is proposed to check the validity of the modelling assumptions. We describe and contrast likelihood-based and Bayesian methods of inference, showing how to account for parameter uncertainty under each of the two paradigms. We also describe extensions of the standard model for disease prevalence that can be used when stationarity of the spatio-temporal covariance function is not supported by the data. We discuss how to define predictive targets and argue that exceedance probabilities provide one of the most effective ways to convey uncertainty in prevalence estimates. We describe statistical software for the visualisation of spatio-temporal predictive summaries of prevalence through interactive animations. Finally, we illustrate an application to historical malaria prevalence data from 1 334 surveys conducted in Senegal between 1905 and 2014.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Challenges of DHS and MIS to capture the entire pattern of malaria parasite risk and intervention effects in countries with different ecological zones: the case of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

In 2011, the demographic and health survey (DHS) in Cameroon was combined with the multiple indicator cluster survey. Malaria parasitological data were collected, but the survey period did not overlap with the high malaria transmission season. A malaria indicator survey (MIS) was also conducted during the same year, within the malaria peak transmission season. This study compares estimates of the geographical distribution of malaria parasite risk and of the effects of interventions obtained from the DHS and MIS survey data.

METHODS

Bayesian geostatistical models were applied on DHS and MIS data to obtain georeferenced estimates of the malaria parasite prevalence and to assess the effects of interventions. Climatic predictors were retrieved from satellite sources. Geostatistical variable selection was used to identify the most important climatic predictors and indicators of malaria interventions.

RESULTS

The overall observed malaria parasite risk among children was 33 and 30% in the DHS and MIS data, respectively. Both datasets identified the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the altitude as important predictors of the geographical distribution of the disease. However, MIS selected additional climatic factors as important disease predictors. The magnitude of the estimated malaria parasite risk at national level was similar in both surveys. Nevertheless, DHS estimates lower risk in the North and Coastal areas. MIS did not find any important intervention effects, although DHS revealed that the proportion of population with an insecticide-treated nets access in their household was statistically important. An important negative relationship between malaria parasitaemia and socioeconomic factors, such as the level of mother's education, place of residence and the household welfare were captured by both surveys.

CONCLUSION

Timing of the malaria survey influences estimates of the geographical distribution of disease risk, especially in settings with seasonal transmission. In countries with different ecological zones and thus different seasonal patterns, a single survey may not be able to identify all high risk areas. A continuous MIS or a combination of MIS, health information system data and data from sentinel sites may be able to capture the disease risk distribution in space across different seasons.

Variation in the effectiveness of insecticide treated nets against malaria and outdoor biting by vectors in Kilifi, Kenya

Background: Insecticide treated nets (ITNs) protect humans against bites from the Anopheles mosquito vectors that transmit malaria, thereby reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. It has been noted that ITN use leads to a switch from indoor to outdoor feeding among these vectors. It might be expected that outdoor feeding would undermine the effectiveness of ITNs that target indoors vectors, but data are limited. Methods: We linked homestead level geospatial data to clinical surveillance data at a primary healthcare facility in Kilifi County in order to map geographical heterogeneity in ITN effectiveness and observed vector feeding behaviour using landing catches and CDC light traps in six selected areas of varying ITN effectiveness. We quantified the interaction between mosquitoes and humans to evaluate whether outdoor vector biting is a potential explanation for the variation in ITN effectiveness. Results: We observed 37% and 46% visits associated with positive malaria slides among ITN users and non-ITN-users, respectively; ITN use was associated with 32% protection from malaria (crude OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). We obtained significant modification of ITN effectiveness by geographical area (p=0.016), and identified significant hotspots using the spatial scan statistic. Majority of mosquitoes were caught outdoor (60%) and were of the An. funestus group (75%). The overall propensity to feed at times when most people are indoor was high; the vast majority of the Anopheles mosquitoes were caught at times when most people are indoor. Estimates for the proportion of human-mosquito contact between the first and last hour when most humans were indoor was consistently high, ranging from 0.83 to 1.00. Conclusion: Our data therefore do not support the hypothesis that outdoor biting limits the effectiveness of ITNs in our study area.

Status of insecticide resistance in malaria vectors in Kwale County, Coastal Kenya

Background

The strategy for malaria vector control in the context of reducing malaria morbidity and mortality has been the scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal nets to universal coverage and indoor residual spraying. This has led to significant decline in malaria transmission. However, these vector control strategies rely on insecticides which are threatened by insecticide resistance. In this study the status of pyrethroid resistance in malaria vectors and it’s implication in malaria transmission at the Kenyan Coast was investigated.

Results

Using World Health Organization diagnostic bioassay, levels of phenotypic resistance to permethrin and deltamethrin was determined. Anopheles arabiensis showed high resistance to pyrethroids while Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles funestus showed low resistance and susceptibility, respectively. Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes were further genotyped for L1014S and L1014F kdr mutation by real time PCR. An allele frequency of 1.33% for L1014S with no L1014F was detected. To evaluate the implication of pyrethroid resistance on malaria transmission, Plasmodium falciparum infection rates in field collected adult mosquitoes was determined using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and further, the behaviour of the vectors was assessed by comparing indoor and outdoor proportions of mosquitoes collected. Sporozoite infection rate was observed at 4.94 and 2.60% in An. funestus s.l. and An. gambiae s.l., respectively. A higher density of malaria vectors was collected outdoor and this also corresponded with high Plasmodium infection rates outdoor.

Conclusions

This study showed phenotypic resistance to pyrethroids and low frequency of L1014S kdr mutation in An. gambiae s.l. The occurrence of phenotypic resistance with low levels of kdr frequencies highlights the need to investigate other mechanisms of resistance. Despite being susceptible to pyrethroids An. funestus s.l. could be driving malaria infections in the area.

The malaria testing and treatment landscape in Kenya: results from a nationally representative survey among the public and private sector in 2016

Background

Since 2004, Kenya’s national malaria treatment guidelines have stipulated artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria, and since 2014, confirmatory diagnosis of malaria in all cases before treatment has been recommended. A number of strategies to support national guidelines have been implemented in the public and private sectors in recent years. A nationally-representative malaria outlet survey, implemented across four epidemiological zones, was conducted between June and August 2016 to provide practical evidence to inform strategies and policies in Kenya towards achieving national malaria control goals.

Results

A total of 17,852 outlets were screened and 2271 outlets were eligible and interviewed. 78.3% of all screened public health facilities stocked both malaria diagnostic testing and quality-assured ACT (QAACT). Sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP) for intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy was available in 70% of public health facilities in endemic areas where it is recommended for treatment. SP was rarely found in the public sector outside of the endemic areas (< 0.5%). The anti-malaria stocking private sector had lower levels of QAACT (46.7%) and malaria blood testing (20.8%) availability but accounted for majority of anti-malarial distribution (70.6% of the national market share). More than 40% of anti-malarials were distributed by unregistered pharmacies (37.3%) and general retailers (7.1%). QAACT accounted for 58.2% of the total anti-malarial market share, while market share for non-QAACT was 15.8% and for SP, 24.8%. In endemic areas, 74.9% of anti-malarials distributed were QAACT. Elsewhere, QAACT market share was 49.4% in the endemic-prone areas, 33.2% in seasonal-transmission areas and 37.9% in low-risk areas.

Conclusion

Although public sector availability of QAACT and malaria diagnosis is relatively high, there is a gap in availability of both testing and treatment that must be addressed. The private sector in Kenya, where the majority of anti-malarials are distributed, is also critical for achieving universal coverage with appropriate malaria case management. There is need for a renewed commitment and effective strategies to ensure access to affordable QAACT and confirmatory testing in the private sector, and should consider how to address malaria case management among informal providers responsible for a substantial proportion of the anti-malarial market share.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-017-2089-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Examining the human infectious reservoir for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas of differing transmission intensity

A detailed understanding of the human infectious reservoir is essential for improving malaria transmission-reducing interventions. Here we report a multi-regional assessment of population-wide malaria transmission potential based on 1209 mosquito feeding assays in endemic areas of Burkina Faso and Kenya. Across both sites, we identified 39 infectious individuals. In high endemicity settings, infectious individuals were identifiable by research-grade microscopy (92.6%; 25/27), whilst one of three infectious individuals in the lowest endemicity setting was detected by molecular techniques alone. The percentages of infected mosquitoes in the different surveys ranged from 0.05 (4/7716) to 1.6% (121/7749), and correlate positively with transmission intensity. We also estimated exposure to malaria vectors through genetic matching of blood from 1094 wild-caught bloodfed mosquitoes with that of humans resident in the same houses. Although adults transmitted fewer parasites to mosquitoes than children, they received more mosquito bites, thus balancing their contribution to the infectious reservoir.

The contribution of malaria control interventions on spatio-temporal changes of parasitaemia risk in Uganda during 2009-2014

BACKGROUND

In Uganda, malaria vector control interventions and case management with Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) have been scaled up over the last few years as a result of increased funding. Data on parasitaemia prevalence among children less than 5 years old and coverage of interventions was collected during the first two Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in 2009 and 2014, respectively. In this study, we quantify the effects of control interventions on parasitaemia risk changes between the two MIS in a spatio-temporal analysis.

METHODS

Bayesian geostatistical and temporal models were fitted on the MIS data of 2009 and 2014. The models took into account geographical misalignment in the locations of the two surveys and adjusted for climatic changes and socio-economic differentials. Parasitaemia risk was predicted over a 2 × 2 km2 grid and the number of infected children less than 5 years old was estimated. Geostatistical variable selection was applied to identify the most important ITN coverage indicators. A spatially varying coefficient model was used to estimate intervention effects at sub-national level.

RESULTS

The coverage of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and ACTs more than doubled at country and sub-national levels during the period 2009-2014. The coverage of Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) remained static at all levels. ITNs, IRS, and ACTs were associated with a reduction in parasitaemia odds of 19% (95% BCI: 18-29%), 78% (95% BCI: 67-84%), and 34% (95% BCI: 28-66%), respectively. Intervention effects varied with region. Higher socio-economic status and living in urban areas were associated with parasitaemia odds reduction of 46% (95% BCI: 0.51-0.57) and 57% (95% BCI: 0.40-0.53), respectively. The probability of parasitaemia risk decline in the country was 85% and varied from 70% in the North-East region to 100% in Kampala region. The estimated number of children infected with malaria declined from 2,480,373 in 2009 to 825,636 in 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions have had a strong effect on the decline of parasitaemia risk in Uganda during 2009-2014, albeit with varying magnitude in the regions. This success should be sustained by optimizing ITN coverage to achieve universal coverage.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs.

Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement.

Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied.

Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Methodological Considerations for Use of Routine Health Information System Data to Evaluate Malaria Program Impact in an Era of Declining Malaria Transmission

Coverage of malaria control interventions is increasing dramatically across endemic countries. Evaluating the impact of malaria control programs and specific interventions on health indicators is essential to enable countries to select the most effective and appropriate combination of tools to accelerate progress or proceed toward malaria elimination. When key malaria interventions have been proven effective under controlled settings, further evaluations of the impact of the intervention using randomized approaches may not be appropriate or ethical. Alternatives to randomized controlled trials are therefore required for rigorous evaluation under conditions of routine program delivery. Routine health management information system (HMIS) data are a potentially rich source of data for impact evaluation, but have been underused in impact evaluation due to concerns over internal validity, completeness, and potential bias in estimates of program or intervention impact. A range of methodologies were identified that have been used for impact evaluations with malaria outcome indicators generated from HMIS data. Methods used to maximize internal validity of HMIS data are presented, together with recommendations on reducing bias in impact estimates. Interrupted time series and dose-response analyses are proposed as the strongest quasi-experimental impact evaluation designs for analysis of malaria outcome indicators from routine HMIS data. Interrupted time series analysis compares the outcome trend and level before and after the introduction of an intervention, set of interventions or program. The dose-response national platform approach explores associations between intervention coverage or program intensity and the outcome at a subnational (district or health facility catchment) level.

The long road to elimination: malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years

Background

Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.

Methods

The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.

Results

Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.

Conclusions

Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs. Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement. Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied. Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.