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Kalthoum S, Mzoughi S, Gharbi R, Lachtar M, Bel Haj Mohamed B, Hajlaoui H, Khalfaoui W, Dhaouadi A, Ben Sliman I, Ben Salah C, Kessa H, Benkirane H, Fekih AJ, Barrak K, Sayari H, Bahloul C, Porphyre T. Factors associated with the spatiotemporal distribution of dog rabies in Tunisia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012296. [PMID: 39102447 PMCID: PMC11326702 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Despite continuous efforts of veterinary services to control rabies in dogs since 1982, rabies remains a cause of death in Tunisia, with more than five reported human cases in 2022. As little is known on the determinants of transmission of rabies in dogs, better understand which factors contribute to its spatial heterogeneity in Tunisia is critical for developing bespoke mitigation activities. In this context, we developed Bayesian Poisson mixed-effect spatio-temporal model upon all cases of rabid dogs reported in each delegation during the period from 2019 to 2021. The best fitting model highlighted the association between the risk of rabies and the mean average monthly temperature, the density of markets and the density of dogs in delegations. Interestingly, no relationship was found between intensity of vaccination in dogs and the risk of rabies. Our results provided insights into the spatio-temporal dynamics of dog rabies transmission and highlighted specific geographic locations where the risk of infection was high despite correction for associated explanatory variables. Such an improved understanding represent key information to design bespoke, cost-efficient, rabies prevention and control strategies to support veterinary services activities and policymaking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sana Kalthoum
- Centre National de veille zoosanitaire, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Samia Mzoughi
- Centre National de veille zoosanitaire, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Raja Gharbi
- Centre National de veille zoosanitaire, Tunis, Tunisia
| | - Monia Lachtar
- Centre National de veille zoosanitaire, Tunis, Tunisia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Thibaud Porphyre
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, VetAgro Sup, Marcy l'Étoile, France
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2
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Beggs PJ, Trueck S, Linnenluecke MK, Bambrick H, Capon AG, Hanigan IC, Arriagada NB, Cross TJ, Friel S, Green D, Heenan M, Jay O, Kennard H, Malik A, McMichael C, Stevenson M, Vardoulakis S, Dang TN, Garvey G, Lovett R, Matthews V, Phung D, Woodward AJ, Romanello MB, Zhang Y. The 2023 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: sustainability needed in Australia's health care sector. Med J Aust 2024; 220:282-303. [PMID: 38522009 DOI: 10.5694/mja2.52245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. It examines five broad domains: health hazards, exposures and impacts; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the sixth report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Our results highlight the health and economic costs of inaction on health and climate change. A series of major flood events across the four eastern states of Australia in 2022 was the main contributor to insured losses from climate-related catastrophes of $7.168 billion - the highest amount on record. The floods also directly caused 23 deaths and resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. High red meat and processed meat consumption and insufficient consumption of fruit and vegetables accounted for about half of the 87 166 diet-related deaths in Australia in 2021. Correction of this imbalance would both save lives and reduce the heavy carbon footprint associated with meat production. We find signs of progress on health and climate change. Importantly, the Australian Government released Australia's first National Health and Climate Strategy, and the Government of Western Australia is preparing a Health Sector Adaptation Plan. We also find increasing action on, and engagement with, health and climate change at a community level, with the number of electric vehicle sales almost doubling in 2022 compared with 2021, and with a 65% increase in coverage of health and climate change in the media in 2022 compared with 2021. Overall, the urgency of substantial enhancements in Australia's mitigation and adaptation responses to the enormous health and climate change challenge cannot be overstated. Australia's energy system, and its health care sector, currently emit an unreasonable and unjust proportion of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As the Lancet Countdown enters its second and most critical phase in the leadup to 2030, the depth and breadth of our assessment of health and climate change will be augmented to increasingly examine Australia in its regional context, and to better measure and track key issues in Australia such as mental health and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and wellbeing.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Hilary Bambrick
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
| | - Anthony G Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC
| | | | | | | | | | - Donna Green
- Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW, Sydney, NSW
| | - Maddie Heenan
- Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, Sax Institute, Sydney, NSW
- The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, NSW
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
| | - Harry Kennard
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | | | - Mark Stevenson
- Transport, Health and Urban Design (THUD) Research Lab, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC
| | - Sotiris Vardoulakis
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
| | - Tran N Dang
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Raymond Lovett
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
- Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies, Canberra, ACT
| | - Veronica Matthews
- University Centre for Rural Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW
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Linh Tran NQ, Cam Hong Le HT, Pham CT, Nguyen XH, Tran ND, Thi Tran TH, Nghiem S, Ly Luong TM, Bui V, Nguyen-Huy T, Doan VQ, Dang KA, Thuong Do TH, Thi Ngo HK, Nguyen TV, Nguyen NH, Do MC, Ton TN, Thu Dang TA, Nguyen K, Tran XB, Thai P, Phung D. Climate change and human health in Vietnam: a systematic review and additional analyses on current impacts, future risk, and adaptation. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 40:100943. [PMID: 38116497 PMCID: PMC10730327 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100943] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to investigate climate change's impact on health and adaptation in Vietnam through a systematic review and additional analyses of heat exposure, heat vulnerability, awareness and engagement, and projected health costs. Out of 127 reviewed studies, findings indicated the wider spread of infectious diseases, and increased mortality and hospitalisation risks associated with extreme heat, droughts, and floods. However, there are few studies addressing health cost, awareness, engagement, adaptation, and policy. Additional analyses showed rising heatwave exposure across Vietnam and global above-average vulnerability to heat. By 2050, climate change is projected to cost up to USD1-3B in healthcare costs, USD3-20B in premature deaths, and USD6-23B in work loss. Despite increased media focus on climate and health, a gap between public and government publications highlighted the need for more governmental engagement. Vietnam's climate policies have faced implementation challenges, including top-down approaches, lack of cooperation, low adaptive capacity, and limited resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nu Quy Linh Tran
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Australia
| | - Huynh Thi Cam Hong Le
- Child Health Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Xuan Huong Nguyen
- Centre for Scientific Research and International Collaboration, Phan Chau Trinh University, Quang Nam, Vietnam
| | - Ngoc Dang Tran
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Son Nghiem
- Department of Health Economics, Wellbeing and Society, Australian National University, Australia
| | - Thi Mai Ly Luong
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Vietnam University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Vinh Bui
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Australia
| | - Thong Nguyen-Huy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Australia
| | - Van Quang Doan
- Centre for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Kim Anh Dang
- Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Thi Hoai Thuong Do
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Hieu Kim Thi Ngo
- University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | - Ngoc Huy Nguyen
- Vietnam National University - Vietnam Japan University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Manh Cuong Do
- Health Environment Management Agency, Ministry of Health, Vietnam
| | | | - Thi Anh Thu Dang
- Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue City, Vietnam
| | - Kien Nguyen
- Hue University of Economics, Hue University, Hue City, Vietnam
| | | | - Phong Thai
- Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia
| | - Dung Phung
- School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Australia
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Rahmani AA, Susanna D, Febrian T. The relationship between climate change and malaria in South-East Asia: A systematic review of the evidence. F1000Res 2023; 11:1555. [PMID: 37867624 PMCID: PMC10585202 DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.125294.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Climatic change is an inescapable fact that implies alterations in seasons where weather occurrences have their schedules shift from the regular and magnitudes intensify to more extreme variations over a multi-year period. Southeast Asia is one of the many regions experiencing changes in climate and concurrently still has endemicities of malaria. Given that previous studies have suggested the influence of climate on malaria's vector the Anopheles mosquitoes and parasite the Plasmodium group, this study was conducted to review the evidence of associations made between malaria cases and climatic variables in Southeast Asia throughout a multi-year period. Methods: Our systematic literature review was informed by the PRISMA guidelines and registered in PROSPERO: CRD42022301826 on 5 th February 2022. We searched for original articles in English and Indonesian that focused on the associations between climatic variables and malaria cases. Results: The initial identification stage resulted in 535 records of possible relevance and after abstract screening and eligibility assessment we included 19 research articles for the systematic review. Based on the reviewed articles, changing temperatures, precipitation, humidity and windspeed were considered for statistical association across a multi-year period and are correlated with malaria cases in various regions throughout Southeast Asia. Conclusions: According to the review of evidence, climatic variables that exhibited a statistically significant correlation with malaria cases include temperatures, precipitation, and humidity. The strength of each climatic variable varies across studies. Our systematic review of the limited evidence indicates that further research for the Southeast Asia region remains to be explored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ardhi Arsala Rahmani
- Doctoral Program in Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Jawa Barat, 16424, Indonesia
| | - Dewi Susanna
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Jawa Barat, 16424, Indonesia
| | - Tommi Febrian
- Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Jakarta, Daerah Khusus Ibukota (DKI), 12950, Indonesia
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Armando CJ, Rocklöv J, Sidat M, Tozan Y, Mavume AF, Bunker A, Sewes MO. Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1162535. [PMID: 37325319 PMCID: PMC10267345 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1162535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity (RH), and Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI), influence malaria transmission dynamics. However, an understanding of interactions between socioeconomic indicators, environmental factors and malaria incidence can help design interventions to alleviate the high burden of malaria infections on vulnerable populations. Our study thus aimed to investigate the socioeconomic and climatological factors influencing spatial and temporal variability of malaria infections in Mozambique. Methods We used monthly malaria cases from 2016 to 2018 at the district level. We developed an hierarchical spatial-temporal model in a Bayesian framework. Monthly malaria cases were assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution. We used integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in R for Bayesian inference and distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) framework to explore exposure-response relationships between climate variables and risk of malaria infection in Mozambique, while adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Results A total of 19,948,295 malaria cases were reported between 2016 and 2018 in Mozambique. Malaria risk increased with higher monthly mean temperatures between 20 and 29°C, at mean temperature of 25°C, the risk of malaria was 3.45 times higher (RR 3.45 [95%CI: 2.37-5.03]). Malaria risk was greatest for NDVI above 0.22. The risk of malaria was 1.34 times higher (1.34 [1.01-1.79]) at monthly RH of 55%. Malaria risk reduced by 26.1%, for total monthly precipitation of 480 mm (0.739 [95%CI: 0.61-0.90]) at lag 2 months, while for lower total monthly precipitation of 10 mm, the risk of malaria was 1.87 times higher (1.87 [1.30-2.69]). After adjusting for climate variables, having lower level of education significantly increased malaria risk (1.034 [1.014-1.054]) and having electricity (0.979 [0.967-0.992]) and sharing toilet facilities (0.957 [0.924-0.991]) significantly reduced malaria risk. Conclusion Our current study identified lag patterns and association between climate variables and malaria incidence in Mozambique. Extremes in climate variables were associated with an increased risk of malaria transmission, peaks in transmission were varied. Our findings provide insights for designing early warning, prevention, and control strategies to minimize seasonal malaria surges and associated infections in Mozambique a region where Malaria causes substantial burden from illness and deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaibo Jose Armando
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Mohsin Sidat
- Faculty of Medicine, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Yesim Tozan
- School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY, United States
| | | | - Aditi Bunker
- Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewes
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Sustainable Health Section, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
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Jane Ling MY, Halim AFNA, Ahmad D, Ramly N, Hassan MR, Syed Abdul Rahim SS, Saffree Jeffree M, Omar A, Hidrus A. Rabies in Southeast Asia: a systematic review of its incidence, risk factors and mortality. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e066587. [PMID: 37164462 PMCID: PMC10173986 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-066587] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease that can infect all mammals, including humans. We aimed to summarise the current knowledge of the incidence, risk factors and mortality of rabies in Southeast Asia. DESIGN Systematic review based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020. DATA SOURCES Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed were searched from 1 January 2012 to 21 February 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Original English language articles published between 2012 and 2023 were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Nine independent reviewers extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. The quality appraisal of included articles was carried out using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. RESULTS A total of eight articles were included in this analysis. In Vietnam, the incidence of rabies ranged from 1.7 to 117.2 per 100 000 population. The cumulative incidence in Sarawak was estimated at 1.7 per 100 000 population. In Indonesia, 104 human rabies cases were reported from 2008 to 2010, while in Thailand, a total of 46 rabies cases were reported in Thailand from 2010 to 2015. In the Philippines, the incidence of rabies ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 per 100 000 population. An increased risk of rabies virus infection was associated with a high population density, illiteracy, seasonal patterns and dog butchers. The case fatality rate was 100%. CONCLUSION This study included research from Southeast Asia, which may not represent rabies infection in other regions or continents. In addition, the role of publication bias should be acknowledged as grey literature was not included. The occurrence of rabies in Southeast Asia is due to the high number of unvaccinated stray and pet dogs, working hazards (dog butchers in Vietnam), the unavailability of the rabies vaccine in rural regions and misinformation about the significance of seeking treatment after dog bites. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42022311654.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miaw Yn Jane Ling
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | | | - Dzulfitree Ahmad
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Nurfatehar Ramly
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Rohaizat Hassan
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- Borneo Medical and Health Research Centre, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | | | | | - Azizan Omar
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
| | - Aizuddin Hidrus
- Department of Public Health Medicine, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia
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Damtew YT, Tong M, Varghese BM, Anikeeva O, Hansen A, Dear K, Zhang Y, Morgan G, Driscoll T, Capon T, Bi P. Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis. EBioMedicine 2023; 91:104582. [PMID: 37088034 PMCID: PMC10149186 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/06/2023] [Indexed: 04/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally. METHODS A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO). FINDINGS The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be "sufficient" for high temperatures but "limited" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income. INTERPRETATION High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention. FUNDING Australian Research Council Discovery Program.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yohannes Tefera Damtew
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia; College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O.BOX 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia.
| | - Michael Tong
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | - Blesson Mathew Varghese
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Olga Anikeeva
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Keith Dear
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Geoffrey Morgan
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Tim Driscoll
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, 2006, Australia.
| | - Tony Capon
- Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, 5005, Australia.
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A Review of Dengue's Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate. Curr Environ Health Rep 2021; 8:245-265. [PMID: 34269994 PMCID: PMC8416809 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-021-00322-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The purpose of this review is to summarize research articles that provide risk estimates for the historical and future impact that climate change has had upon dengue published from 2007 through 2019. RECENT FINDINGS Findings from 30 studies on historical health estimates, with the majority of the studies conducted in Asia, emphasized the importance of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, as well as lag effects, when trying to understand how climate change can impact the risk of contracting dengue. Furthermore, 35 studies presented findings on future health risk based upon climate projection scenarios, with a third of them showcasing global level estimates and findings across the articles emphasizing the need to understand risk at a localized level as the impacts from climate change will be experienced inequitably across different geographies in the future. Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading viral diseases in the world, with ~390 million people infected worldwide annually. Several factors have contributed towards its proliferation, including climate change. Multiple studies have previously been conducted examining the relationship between dengue and climate change, both from a historical and a future risk perspective. We searched the U.S. National Institute of Environmental Health (NIEHS) Climate Change and Health Portal for literature (spanning January 2007 to September 2019) providing historical and future health risk estimates of contracting dengue infection in relation to climate variables worldwide. With an overview of the evidence of the historical and future health risk posed by dengue from climate change across different regions of the world, this review article enables the research and policy community to understand where the knowledge gaps are and what areas need to be addressed in order to implement localized adaptation measures to mitigate the health risks posed by future dengue infection.
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Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. EPIDEMIOLGIA (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2021; 2:162-178. [PMID: 36417181 PMCID: PMC9620933 DOI: 10.3390/epidemiologia2020013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q1) and 6-month cycle (Q2) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q1 and Q2 were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.
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Li Y, Dou Q, Lu Y, Xiang H, Yu X, Liu S. Effects of ambient temperature and precipitation on the risk of dengue fever: A systematic review and updated meta-analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110043. [PMID: 32810500 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2019] [Revised: 05/21/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We systematically reviewed the published studies on the relationship between dengue fever and meteorological factors and applied a meta-analysis to explore the effects of ambient temperature and precipitation on dengue fever. METHODS We completed the literature search by the end of September 1st, 2019 using databases including Science Direct, PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. We extracted relative risks (RRs) in selected studies and converted all effect estimates to the RRs per 1 °C increase in temperature and 10 mm increase in precipitation, and combined all standardized RRs together using random-effect meta-analysis. RESULTS Our results show that dengue fever was significantly associated with both temperature and precipitation. Our subgroup analyses suggested that the effect of temperature on dengue fever was most pronounced in high-income subtropical areas. The pooled RR of dengue fever associated with the maximum temperature was much lower than the overall effect. CONCLUSIONS Temperature and precipitation are important risk factors for dengue fever. Future studies should focus on factors that can distort the effects of temperature and precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanbing Li
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, 430071, Wuhan, China
| | - Qiujun Dou
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, 430071, Wuhan, China
| | - Yuanan Lu
- Environmental Health Laboratory, Department of Public Health Sciences, University Hawaii at Manoa, 1960 East West Rd, Biomed Bldg, D105, Honolulu, USA
| | - Hao Xiang
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, 430071, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuejie Yu
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, 430071, Wuhan, China
| | - Suyang Liu
- School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115 Donghu Road, 430071, Wuhan, China.
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Su D, Chen Y, He K, Zhang T, Tan M, Zhang Y, Zhang X. Influence of socio-ecological factors on COVID-19 risk: a cross-sectional study based on 178 countries/regions worldwide. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2020:2020.04.23.20077545. [PMID: 32511588 PMCID: PMC7276015 DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.23.20077545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Background The initial outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2019 has been severely tested in other countries worldwide. We aimed to describe the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide and assess the effects of various socio-ecological factors on COVID-19 risk. Methods We collected COVID-19 pandemic infection data and social-ecological data of 178 countries/regions worldwide from three database. We used spatial econometrics method to assess the global and local correlation of COVID-19 risk indicators for COVID-19. To estimate the adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR), we modelled negative binomial regression analysis with spatial information and socio-ecological factors. Findings The study indicated that 37, 29 and 39 countries/regions were strongly opposite from the IR, CMR and DCI index "spatial autocorrelation hypothesis", respectively. The IRs were significantly positively associated with GDP per capita, the use of at least basic sanitation services and social insurance program coverage, and were significantly negatively associated with the proportion of the population spending more than 25% of household consumption or income on out-of-pocket health care expenses and the poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. The CMR was significantly positively associated with urban populations, GDP per capita and current health expenditure, and was significantly negatively associated with the number of hospital beds, number of nurses and midwives, and poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. The DCI was significantly positively associated with urban populations, population density and researchers in R&D, and was significantly negatively associated with the number of hospital beds, number of nurses and midwives and poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. We also found that climatic factors were not significantly associated with COVID-19 risk. Conclusion Countries/regions should pay more attention to controlling population flow, improving diagnosis and treatment capacity, and improving public welfare policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dai Su
- Department of Health Management, School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Research Center for Rural Health Services, Hubei Province Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Yingchun Chen
- Department of Health Management, School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Research Center for Rural Health Services, Hubei Province Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Kevin He
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, United States
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Sichuan, China
| | - Min Tan
- Department of Health Management, School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Research Center for Rural Health Services, Hubei Province Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Yunfan Zhang
- Department of Health Management, School of Medicine and Health Management, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- Research Center for Rural Health Services, Hubei Province Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Wuhan, China
| | - Xingyu Zhang
- Department of Systems, Populations, and Leadership, University of Michigan School of Nursing, Ann Arbor, United States
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12
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Cabore JW, Karamagi HC, Kipruto H, Asamani JA, Droti B, Seydi ABW, Titi-Ofei R, Impouma B, Yao M, Yoti Z, Zawaira F, Tumusiime P, Talisuna A, Kasolo FC, Moeti MR. The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model. BMJ Glob Health 2020; 5:e002647. [PMID: 32451366 PMCID: PMC7252960 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Revised: 05/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%-26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 - 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735-189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6-5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876-167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253-106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Waogodo Cabore
- Director of Programme Management, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Humphrey Cyprian Karamagi
- Data Analytics and Knowledge Management, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Hillary Kipruto
- Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - James Avoka Asamani
- Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Benson Droti
- Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | | | - Regina Titi-Ofei
- Data Analytics and Knowledge Management, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Benido Impouma
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Michel Yao
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Zabulon Yoti
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Felicitas Zawaira
- Assistant Regional Director, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Prosper Tumusiime
- Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Ambrose Talisuna
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Francis Chisaka Kasolo
- Country Support, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
| | - Matshidiso R Moeti
- Regional Director, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo
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13
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The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0232273. [PMID: 32348370 PMCID: PMC7190132 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Mumps, a common childhood disease, has a high incidence in Guangzhou city, China. It has been proven that mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological factors among children is yet to be fully ascertained. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children from 2014–2018. The nonlinear lag effects of some meteorological factors were detected. Mean temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity were positively correlated with mumps incidence, contrary to that of wind speed. Extreme effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity on the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou were evaluated in a subgroup analysis according to gender and age. Our preliminary results offered fundamental information to better understand the epidemic trends of mumps among children to develop an early warning system, and strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.
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