Mortality in nursing home residents: A longitudinal study over three years

Predictors of mortality over time in geriatric patients with hip fracture

Objectives

The aim of this study was to determine the variations in effect for predictors of mortality over time and risk of in-hospital complications in geriatric patients with a hip fracture. Many studies have investigated risk factors of short-term and long-term mortality separately. In current literature, little is known about the variations in effect of risk factors over time and no comparison with the general population is made.

Methods

All patients with a hip fracture aged 70 years or older admitted to our hospital between January 1, 2016, and May 1, 2018, were included in this retrospective study. Patients who had undergone total hip arthroplasty (THA) were not included. The primary outcome was mortality after 1 year. Secondary outcomes were mortality after 30 days, 90 days, 2 years, and complications. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves for risk factors were generated to visualize survival over time. Data were compared with data extracted from the national health records.

Results

A total of 685 geriatric patients with hip fractures were included with a 1-year mortality of 27%. The adjusted odds ratios (AOR) found differed over time. Five risk factors for mortality were investigated in this study using KM curves: age, prefracture living situation, dementia, sex, and ASA classification.

Conclusions

Over time, the variation of 5 risk factors for mortality were visualized in geriatric patients with a hip fracture: age, prefracture living situation, dementia, sex, and ASA classification. An elevated risk of mortality was discovered compared with the general population. The variation in effect observed in risk factors plays a vital role in prognosis. This insight will help guide accurate medical decision-making for a tailored treatment plan for geriatric patients with a hip fracture.

Risk of Death Among Nursing Home Residents: A Cross-National Perspective

OBJECTIVES

Describe the rate of death over 4 consecutive quarters and determine optimal categorization of residents into risk-of-death categories, expanding the Changes in Health, Endstage Disease, Signs and Symptoms (CHESS) scale.

DESIGN

Using secondary analysis design with Minimum Data Set (MDS) data, the CHESS scale provided the base upon which the DeathRisk-NH scale was developed.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Baseline and 4 quarterly follow-up analyses of Canadian (n = 109,145) and US (n = 1,075,611) nursing home resident data were completed.

METHODS

Logistic regression analyses identified predictors of death, additive to CHESS, to form the DeathRisk-NH scale. The independent variable set used MDS items, focusing on clinical complexity indicators, diagnostic conditions, and measures of severe clinical distress.

RESULTS

Country cohorts had similar percentages of residents with mean activities of daily living hierarchy scores, dependence in mobility, continence, memory, and overall CHESS scores. The percentage of individuals who died increased from 10.5% (3 months) to 30.7% (12 months). The average annual death rate for this cohort was 5.5 times higher than the national annual death rate of approximately 5.6%.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The DeathRisk-NH is an effective prediction model to identify residents at risk of death within the first 12 months after admission to the nursing home. The tool may be helpful in patient care planning, resource allocation, and excess death monitoring.

Hip fracture rate and osteoporosis treatment in Ontario: A population-based retrospective cohort study

This population-based study analyzes hip fracture and osteoporosis treatment rates among older adults, stratified by place of residence prior to fracture. Hip fracture rates were higher among older adults living in the community and discharged to long-term care (LTC) after fracture, compared to LTC residents and older adults living in the community. Only 23% of LTC residents at high fracture risk received osteoporosis treatment.

PURPOSE

This population-based study examines hip fracture rate and osteoporosis management among long-term care (LTC) residents > 65 years of age compared to community-dwelling older adults at the time of fracture and admitted to LTC after fracture, in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

Healthcare utilization and administrative databases were linked using unique, encoded identifiers from the ICES Data Repository to estimate hip fractures (identified using the Public Health Agency of Canada algorithm and International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes) and osteoporosis management (pharmacotherapy) among adults > 66 years from April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2018. Sex-specific and age-standardized rates were compared by pre-fracture residency and discharge location (i.e., LTC to LTC, community to LTC, or community to community). Fracture risk was determined using the Fracture Risk Scale (FRS).

RESULTS

At baseline (2014/15), the overall age-standardized hip fracture rate among LTC residents was 223 per 10,000 person-years (173 per 10,000 females and 157 per 10,000 males), 509 per 10,000 person-years (468 per 10,000 females and 320 per 10,000 males) among the community to LTC cohort, and 31.5 per 10,000 person-years (43.1 per 10,000 females and 25.6 per 10,000 males). During the 5-year observation period, the overall annual average percent change (APC) for hip fracture increased significantly in LTC (AAPC =  + 8.6 (95% CI 5.0 to 12.3; p = 0.004) compared to the community to LTC group (AAPC =  + 2.5 (95% CI - 3.0 to 8.2; p = 0.248)) and the community-to-community cohort (AAPC - 3.8 (95% CI - 6.7 to - 0.7; p = 030)). However, hip fracture rate remained higher in the community to LTC group over the study period. There were 33,594 LTC residents identified as high risk of fracture (FRS score 4 +), of which 7777 were on treatment (23.3%).

CONCLUSION

Overall, hip fracture rates have increased in LTC and among community-dwelling adults admitted to LTC after fracture. However, hip fracture rates among community-dwelling adults have decreased over time. A non-significant increase in osteoporosis treatment rates was observed among LTC residents at high risk of fracture (FRS4 +). Residents in LTC are at very high risk for fracture and require individualized based on goals of care and life expectancy.

Predictors of mortality shortly after entering a long-term care facility

OBJECTIVE

Moving into a long-term care facility (LTCF) requires substantial personal, societal and financial investment. Identifying those at high risk of short-term mortality after LTCF entry can help with care planning and risk factor management. This study aimed to: (i) examine individual-, facility-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related predictors for 90-day mortality at entry into an LTCF and (ii) create risk profiles for this outcome.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using data from the Registry of Senior Australians.

SUBJECTS

Individuals aged ≥ 65 years old with first-time permanent entry into an LTCF in three Australian states between 01 January 2013 and 31 December 2016.

METHODS

A prediction model for 90-day mortality was developed using Cox regression with the purposeful variable selection approach. Individual-, medication-, system- and healthcare-related factors known at entry into an LTCF were examined as predictors. Harrell's C-index assessed the predictive ability of our risk models.

RESULTS

116,192 individuals who entered 1,967 facilities, of which 9.4% (N = 10,910) died within 90 days, were studied. We identified 51 predictors of mortality, five of which were effect modifiers. The strongest predictors included activities of daily living category (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.99-5.88 for high vs low), high level of complex health conditions (HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.58-1.77 for high vs low), several medication classes and male sex (HR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.53-1.65). The model out-of-sample Harrell's C-index was 0.773.

CONCLUSIONS

Our mortality prediction model, which includes several strongly associated factors, can moderately well identify individuals at high risk of mortality upon LTCF entry.

The Involvement of Caregivers in the End-of-life Care of an Older Adult Living in a Long-term Care Home: A Qualitative Case Study with Nurses and Relatives

BACKGROUND

A key role of nurses working in long-term care homes (LTCHs) is to promote the involvement of care partners in end-of-life (EOL) care. However, studies on the involvement of care partners in EOL care in LTCHs have focused on care planning and decision-making. While care partners can participate in other ways, it's unclear how they are currently involved in EOL care by staff.

PURPOSE

We aimed to explore the involvement of care partners in the EOL care of an older adult living in a LTCH.

METHODS

A qualitative case study was conducted. Data was collected from a sample of four nurses and three care partners, using sociodemographic questionnaires, individual semi-structured interviews, documents pertaining to the LTCH's philosophy for EOL care, and a field diary.

RESULTS

The results of a thematic analysis showed the broad scope of care partners' possible involvement, including contributing to care, obtaining information, and being present. As there was some variation in care partners' desire to be involved, nurses seemed to rely on them to convey their wishes. To promote this involvement, some strategies aimed at health professionals and managers were suggested.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can guide improvement in clinical practices and raise awareness on the EOL care experiences of care partners.

Resources to Support Decision-Making Regarding End-of-Life Nutrition Care in Long-Term Care: A Scoping Review

Resources are needed to aid healthcare providers and families in making end-of-life nutrition care decisions for residents living in long-term care settings. This scoping review aimed to explore what is reported in the literature about resources to support decision-making at the end of life in long-term care. Four databases were searched for research published from 2003 to June 2023. Articles included peer-reviewed human studies published in the English language that reported resources to support decision-making about end-of-life nutrition in long-term care settings. In total, 15 articles were included. Thematic analysis of the articles generated five themes: conversations about care, evidence-based decision-making, a need for multidisciplinary perspectives, honouring residents' goals of care, and cultural considerations for adapting resources. Multidisciplinary care teams supporting residents and their families during the end of life can benefit from resources to support discussion and facilitate decision-making.

Impact of Virtual Reality-Based Group Activities on Activity Level and Well-Being Among Older Adults in Nursing Homes: Longitudinal Exploratory Study

BACKGROUND

In addition to illness, inactivity is a risk factor for high mortality in nursing homes. Using innovative technology, such as virtual reality (VR), for meaningful group activities could provide new opportunities for solving this problem. VR interventions have already been approved as a promising method for enhancing the health of older adults.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we examined whether VR-based group activities can have a positive impact on activity level and group interaction among older adults living in nursing homes.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal study and provided VR interventions as a group activity once a week for 4 consecutive weeks in nursing homes. Participants were recruited based on the experience of the nursing staff members and the natural decisions of the older adults. Within a virtual cottage, designed according to the needs of the target group, older adults were able to perform daily tasks that they were no longer able to do in real life, such as gardening and making pizza. Overall, 2 psychologists measured the psychosocial capacities, activities of daily life, and well-being before and after the interventions using standardized instruments.

RESULTS

The results focus on a total of 84 older adults from 14 nursing homes who completed at least 3 VR interventions. The results indicate that several psychosocial capacities among the older adults improved, including adherence to regulations (P<.001; η²=0.122), flexibility (P<.001; η²=0.109), and group integration (P<.001; η²=0.141). Problems related to competence also showed a slight decrease (P=.04; η²=0.039). In addition, the VR intervention promoted their proactivity (P<.001; η²=0.104) and mobility (P=.04; η²=0.039). During the VR group intervention, older adults' well-being could be maintained at a high level. The results highlight the beneficial effects of VR intervention as a meaningful activity in nursing homes, showcasing the potential of VR applications in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a novel and naturalistic perspective, offering new insights into the use of VR in nursing homes. The VR intervention was well accepted and fulfilled the aim of enhancing capacity and well-being. It could be a meaningful group activity in nursing homes to improve social group interaction. To provide stronger evidence, randomized controlled trials are necessary.

Health disparities in mortality among individuals with HIV-associated dementia in South Carolina

HIV disproportionately affects the South compared to other regions of the US. Some people living with HIV (PLWH) may acquire HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND), of which HIV-associated dementia (HAD) is the most severe form. This study aimed to examine the disparities in mortality among individuals with HAD. Data were obtained from the South Carolina Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Registry from 2010 to 2016 (HAD: n = 505; N = 164,982). Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine mortality related to HIV-associated dementia and potential sociodemographic differences. Adjusted models controlled for age, gender, race, rurality, and place of diagnosis. Individuals diagnosed in a nursing facility were three times more likely to die with HAD compared to those diagnosed in the community (OR: 3.25; 95% CI: 2.08-5.08). Black populations were more likely to die with HAD compared to White populations (OR: 1.52; 95% CI: 0.953-2.42). Disparities in mortality among patients with HAD were found in place of diagnosis and by race. Future research should determine if mortality among individuals with HAD were as a result of HAD or non-HIV related decline.

Cause and place of death in Norwegian nursing home residents

BACKGROUND

Nursing home (NH) residents are in their last phase of life, and two aims of the NH's medical care in Norway is to prevent unnecessary hospital admissions that would not benefit the resident and to facilitate a peaceful death in familiar surroundings when the time comes. However, little is known about the share of residents dying in NHs and the causes of death. We therefore evaluated the cause and place of death in a cohort of NH residents followed from the time of NH admission until death.

METHODS

NH residents were followed from admission to the NH and over the entire course of their NH stay. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Cause and place of death were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry.

RESULTS

Of 1283 residents, 6.2% died in hospital and 91.2% in a NH. Those who died in hospitals were more often male, died sooner after NH admission, had a less severe degree of dementia and had poorer general health. Dementia was the most common underlying cause of death, followed by cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Dementia is one of the main causes of death in NH residents. In addition, our findings indicate a low number of inappropriate referrals to hospital during the last stage of life. However, further research should explore whether the terminal phase of NH residents is formed in accordance with their preferences and whether appropriate palliative care is offered.

Excess mortality in residents of aged care facilities during COVID-19 in Australia, 2019-22

BACKGROUND

To date, the excess mortality experienced by residential aged care facility (RACF) residents related to COVID-19 has not been estimated in Australia. This study examined (i) the historical mortality trends (2008-09 to 2021-22) and (ii) the excess mortality (2019-20 to 2021-22) of Australian RACF residents.

METHODS

A retrospective population-based study was conducted using the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's GEN website data (publicly available aged care services information). Non-Aboriginal, older (≥65 years old) RACF residents between 2008-09 and 2021-22 were evaluated. The observed mortality rate was estimated from RACF exits compared with the RACF cohort yearly. Direct standardization was employed to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and 95% CIs. Excess mortality and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for 2019-20 to 2021-22 were estimated using four negative binomial (NB) and NB generalized additive models and compared.

RESULTS

The age-standardized mortality rate in 2018-19 was 23 061/100 000 residents (95% CI, 22 711-23 412). This rate remained similar in 2019-20 (23 023/100 000; 95% CI, 22 674-23 372), decreased in 2020-21 (22 559/100 000; 95% CI, 22 210-22 909) and increased in 2021-22 (24 885/100 000; 95% CI, 24 543-25 227). The mortality rate increase between 2020-21 and 2021-22 was observed in all age and sex groups. All models yielded excess mortality in 2021-22. Using the best-performing model (NB), the excess mortality for 2019-20 was -160 (95% PI, -418 to 98), -958 (95% PI, -1279 to -637) for 2020-21 and 4896 (95% PI, 4503-5288) for 2021-22.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2021-22, RACF residents, who represented <1% of the population, experienced 21% of the Australian national excess mortality (4896/22 886). As Australia adjusts to COVID-19, RACF residents remain a population vulnerable to COVID-19.

Healthcare professionals' perceived barriers in providing palliative care in primary care and nursing homes: a survey study

Background

Palliative care in primary care and nursing home settings is becoming increasingly important. A multidimensional palliative care approach, provided by a multiprofessional team, is essential to meeting patients' and relatives' values, wishes, and needs. Factors that hamper the provision of palliative care in this context have not yet been fully explored.

Objectives

To identify the barriers to providing palliative care for patients at home or in nursing homes as perceived by healthcare professionals.

Design

Cross-sectional survey study.

Methods

A convenience sample of nurses, doctors, chaplains, and rehabilitation therapists working in primary care and at nursing homes in the Netherlands is used. The primary outcome is barriers, defined as statements with ⩾20% negative response. The survey contained 56 statements on palliative reasoning, communication, and multiprofessional collaboration. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics.

Results

In total, 249 healthcare professionals completed the survey (66% completion rate). The main barriers identified in the provision of palliative care were the use of measurement tools (43%), consultation of an expert (31%), estimation of life expectancy (29%), and documentation in the electronic health record (21% and 37%). In primary care, mainly organizational barriers were identified, whereas in nursing homes, most barriers were related to care content. Chaplains and rehabilitation therapists perceived the most barriers.

Conclusion

In primary care and nursing homes, there are barriers to the provision of palliative care. The provision of palliative care depends on the identification of patients with palliative care needs and is influenced by individual healthcare professionals, possibilities for consultation, and the electronic health record. An unambiguous and systematic approach within the multiprofessional team is needed, which should be patient-driven and tailored to the setting.

Influence of type of household on prognosis at one year in patients ≥65 years attending hospital emergency departments in Spain. The EDEN-6 study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the type of household is associated with prognosis at one year in patients ≥65 years of age discharged after medical consultation requiring emergency department care.

METHODS

Data from the Emergency Department and Elder Needs (EDEN) cohort were used. This retrospective cohort included all patients ≥65 years of age seen in 52 Spanish emergency departments over one week (April 1-7, 2019) in whom the type of household was recorded and categorized as living at home alone, with relatives, with professional caregivers, or in a nursing home. Patient demographic and other baseline characteristics and management during the index emergency department episode were recorded and used to adjust the following 1-year outcomes: all-cause mortality, hospitalization and emergency department revisit. Associations between type of household and outcomes are expressed as adjusted hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals using living alone as the reference category.

RESULTS

13,442 patients with a median age of 79 years (interquartile range 72-86) were included; 56% were women, 12.2% of patients lived alone, 74.9% with relatives, 3.9% with a professional caregiver, and 9.1% in a nursing home. During the year following discharge, the mortality rate was 14.0%, the hospitalization rate 29.7%, and the emergency department revisit rate 59.3%. In the fully adjusted model, the risk of death was associated only with living in a nursing home (hazard ratio 1.366 (1.101-1.695)). On the other hand, the risk of hospitalization was lower in individuals living in nursing homes (hazard ratio 0.783 [0.676-0.907]) and at home with relatives (hazard ratio 0.897 [0.810-0.992]), while the risk of emergency department revisit was lower in individuals living in nursing homes (hazard ratio 0.826 [0.742-0.920]) or at home with caregivers (hazard ratio 0.856 [0.750-0.976]).

CONCLUSION

The type of household was modestly associated with the one-year prognosis of patients ≥65 years of age discharged after attendance at an emergency department. Living in a nursing home is associated with an increased risk of death but a decreased risk of rehospitalization or emergency department revisit, while living at home with relatives or professional caregivers is associated only with a decreased risk of hospitalization and emergency department revisit, respectively.

Prescriber Perspectives and Experiences with Deprescribing Versus Continuing Bisphosphonates in Older Nursing Home Residents with Dementia

BACKGROUND

Few guidelines address fracture prevention medication use in nursing home (NH) residents with dementia.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to identify factors that influence prescriber decision-making for deprescribing of bisphosphonates for older NH residents with dementia.

METHODS

We conducted 12 semi-structured interviews with prescribers who care for older adults with dementia in NHs.

MAIN MEASURES

Interview prompts addressed experiences treating fractures, benefits, and harms of bisphosphonates, and experiences with deprescribing. Coding was guided by the social-ecological framework including patient-level (intrapersonal) and external (interpersonal, system, community, and policy) influences.

RESULTS

Most prescribers were physicians (83%); 75% were female and 75% were White. Most (75%) spent less than half of their clinical effort in NHs and half were in the first decade of practice. Among patient-level influences, prescribers uniformly agreed that a prior bisphosphonate treatment course of several years, emergence of adverse effects, and changing goals of care or limited life expectancy were compelling reasons to deprescribe. External influences were frequently discussed as barriers to deprescribing. At the interpersonal level, prescribers noted that family/informal caregivers are diverse in their involvement in decision-making, and frequently concerned about the adverse effects of bisphosphonates, but perceive deprescribing as "withdrawing care." At the health system level, prescribers felt that frequent transitions make it difficult to determine duration of prior treatment and to implement deprescribing. At the policy level, prescribers highlighted the lack of guidelines addressing residents with limited mobility and dementia or criteria for deprescribing, including uncertainty in the setting of prior fractures and lack of bone densitometry in NHs.

CONCLUSION

Systems-level barriers to evaluating bone densitometry and treatment history in NHs may impede person-centered decision-making for fracture prevention. Further research is needed to evaluate the residual benefits of bisphosphonates in medically complex residents with limited mobility and dementia to inform recommendations for deprescribing versus continued use.

Cluster randomized trials in nursing homes should better be planned as open-cohort than as closed-cohort

OBJECTIVES

Two designs are frequently used in cluster randomized trials in nursing homes: closed cohort and open cohort. The former design includes residents at the beginning of the trial and then follows them. In the latter design, participants are enrolled at the beginning of the trial or although it is ongoing; at dates of assessment, all residents present in the nursing home are assessed. The open-cohort design is much less used than the closed-cohort design, but it offers several advantages such as less exposure to individual attrition. Objective was to assess whether an open-cohort design could have been feasible in trials with a closed-cohort design.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Twenty-two closed-cohort trials in nursing homes.

RESULTS

An open-cohort design was considered a relevant alternative for 20 trials. For 16 trials, a resident newly admitted could not opt out of the intervention, and for all trials, the resident could benefit from an intervention effect if it existed. For two trials, newly admitted residents could not benefit from the intervention effect, if it existed.

CONCLUSION

The open-cohort design is well-adapted for most of the interventions assessed in nursing homes by means of a cluster randomized trial and should be considered more often.

The OptimaMed intervention to reduce medication burden in nursing home residents with severe dementia: results from a pragmatic, controlled study

BACKGROUND

Nursing home (NH) residents with severe dementia use many medications, sometimes inappropriately within a comfort care approach. Medications should be regularly reviewed and eventually deprescribed. This pragmatic, controlled trial assessed the effect of an interprofessional knowledge exchange (KE) intervention to decrease medication load and the use of medications of questionable benefit among these residents.

METHODS

A 6-month intervention was performed in 4 NHs in the Quebec City area, while 3 NHs, with comparable admissions criteria, served as controls. Published lists of "mostly", "sometimes" or "exceptionally" appropriate medications, tailored for NH residents with severe dementia, were used. The intervention included 1) information for participants' families about medication use in severe dementia; 2) a 90-min KE session for NH nurses, pharmacists, and physicians; 3) medication reviews by NH pharmacists using the lists; 4) discussions on recommended changes with nurses and physicians. Participants' levels of agitation and pain were evaluated using validated scales at baseline and the end of follow-up.

RESULTS

Seven (7) NHs and 123 participants were included for study. The mean number of regular medications per participant decreased from 7.1 to 6.6 in the intervention, and from 7.7 to 5.9 in the control NHs (p-value for the difference in differences test: < 0.05). Levels of agitation decreased by 8.3% in the intervention, and by 1.4% in the control NHs (p = 0.026); pain levels decreased by 12.6% in the intervention and increased by 7% in the control NHs (p = 0.049). Proportions of participants receiving regular medications deemed only exceptionally appropriate decreased from 19 to 17% (p = 0.43) in the intervention and from 28 to 21% (p = 0.007) in the control NHs (p = 0.22). The mean numbers of regular daily antipsychotics per participant fell from 0.64 to 0.58 in the intervention and from 0.39 to 0.30 in the control NHs (p = 0.27).

CONCLUSIONS

This interprofessional intervention to reduce inappropriate medication use in NH residents with severe dementia decreased medication load in both intervention and control NHs, without important concomitant increase in agitation, but mixed effects on pain levels. Practice changes and heterogeneity within these 7 NHs, and a ceiling effect in medication optimization likely interfered with the intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: # NCT05155748 (first registration 03-10-2017).

Prevalence of geriatric syndromes in frail patients and mortality risks

The prevalence of older people in Russian population increases rapidly. Therefore, the concept of healthy aging is becoming crucial in Russia and all over the world, and thus disability prevention is one aspect of this issue.

Aim

To assess a possible association between geriatric syndromes, comorbidities, and mortality rate among frail patients who receive home medical care in Moscow.

Materials and methods

The study included 450 patients with home medical care provided by the State Budgetary Healthcare Institution "Diagnostic Center No. 3 of the Moscow Health Department" from June 2019 to April 2021. Physical health, functional, cognitive, social and emotional statuses were evaluated by comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). The mortality rate after 1 year was assessed.

Results

The all-cause case mortality rate in patients during the observation period was 22.4%. There was no difference in age and comorbidities in survivors and deceased patients, but the latter group had more geriatric syndromes. The association between risks of mortality and anemia and some geriatric syndromes, such as malnutrition and hearing impairment, total dependence (Barthel index less than 60) was observed.

Controversies in Osteoporosis Treatment of Nursing Home Residents

Osteoporotic fractures are a common and serious health problem for older adults living in nursing homes (NHs). Risk of fracture increases with age and dementia status, yet gaps in evidence result in controversies around when to start and stop treatment for osteoporosis in NH residents, particularly those who have high fracture risk but have limited life expectancy. In this article, we discuss these areas of controversy. We provide an overview of current guidelines that explicitly address osteoporosis treatment strategies for NH residents, review the evidence for osteoporosis medications in NH residents, and use these sources to suggest practical recommendations for clinical practice and for research. Three published guidelines (from the United States, Canada, and Australia) and several studies provide the current basis for clinical decisions about osteoporosis treatment for NH residents. Practical approaches may include broad use of vitamin D and selective use of osteoporosis medication based on risks, benefits, and goals of care. Clinicians still lack strong evidence to guide treatment of NH residents with advanced dementia, multimorbidity, or severe mobility impairment. Future priorities for research include identifying optimal approaches to risk stratification and prevention strategies for NH residents and evaluating the risk-benefit profile of pharmacologic treatments for osteoporosis NH residents across key clinical strata. In the absence of such evidence, decisions for initiating and continuing treatment should reflect a patient-centered approach that incorporates life expectancy, goals of care, and the potential burden of treatment.

Delirium: Prevalence and outcome in the very old in 27 medical departments during a one-year prospective study

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence and effects of delirium in very old individuals aged ≥80 years have not yet been systematically evaluated. Therefore, this large single-center study of the one-year prevalence of delirium in 3,076 patients in 27 medical departments of the University Hospital of Zurich was conducted.

METHODS

Patient scores on the Delirium Observation Screening scale, Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 5th edition, and electronic Patient Assessment-Acute Care (nursing tool) resulted in the inclusion of 3,076 individuals in 27 departments. The prevalence rates were determined by simple logistic regressions, odds ratios (ORs), and confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Of the 3,076 patients, 1,285 (41.8%) developed delirium. The prevalence rates in the 27 departments ranged from 15% in rheumatology (OR = 0.30) to 73% in intensive care (OR = 5.25). Delirious patients were more likely to have been admitted from long-term care facilities (OR = 2.26) or because of emergencies (OR = 2.24). The length of their hospital stay was twice as long as that for other patients. Some died before discharge (OR = 24.88), and others were discharged to nursing homes (OR = 2.96) or assisted living facilities (OR = 2.2).

CONCLUSION

This is the largest study to date regarding the prevalence of delirium in patients aged ≥80 years and the medical characteristics of these patients. Almost two out of five patients developed delirium, with a high risk of loss of independence and mortality.

Efficacy of therapeutic exercise on activities of daily living and cognitive function among older residents in long-term care facilities: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to systematically analyze the efficacy of therapeutic exercise on activities of daily living (ADL) and cognitive function among older residents in long-term care facilities.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Cochrane Central of Register Trials, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, OTseeker, and Ichushi-Web were searched from inception until December 2018.

STUDY SELECTION

Databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of therapeutic exercise for long-term care facility residents aged 60 years and older, focusing on ADL and cognitive function as outcomes.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two independent reviewers extracted the key information from each eligible study. Two reviewers independently screened and assessed all studies for eligibility, extracting information on study participants, details of interventions, outcome characteristics, and significant outcomes. Any discrepancies were resolved by a third reviewer.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 11 RCTs with 1,280 participants were eligible for analyses. Therapeutic exercise had a significant benefit on ADL (standard mean difference [SMD] = 0. 22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.42, p = 0.03)]. Subgroup analyses indicated that interventions were conducted ≥ 3 days per week [SMD = 0.42, 95% CI 0.02, 0.82, p = 0.04]. For cognitive function, group exercise and ≥ 3 days/week of intervention had a significant benefit (group exercise: mean difference [MD] = 3.36, 95% CI 0.91, 5.80, p = 0.007; ≥ 3 days/week of intervention: MD = 2.28, 95% CI 0.07, 4.49, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Therapeutic exercise conducted 3 or more days per week may be effective for improving ADL and cognitive function among older residents in long-term care facilities. This meta-analysis suggested that group exercise for cognitive functions was effective. However, the effective method of intervention delivery for ADL was unclear.

Management of death-related noncompleters in cluster randomized trials carried out in nursing homes: a methodological review

BACKGROUND

A noncompleter is defined as a participant who leaves a trial before the end of the planned follow-up. Research in nursing homes is highly exposed to this problem because of high death rates.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this trial is to assess the statistical management of noncompleters in cluster randomized trials carried out in nursing homes.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A methodological review of published cluster randomized trials.

RESULTS

We selected 37 articles. For 22 (59%) trials, the design was closed-cohort (i.e., participants included all at the same time when randomizing clusters). In those 22 closed-cohort trials, the median follow-up was 6.5 months (interquartile range 4-12). The median noncompleter rate was 19.5% and the median noncompletions due to death was 73.2%. In only one trial were the baseline characteristics of completers and noncompleters compared. Strategies to deal with noncompleters were an inflation of the planned sample size (11 trials), the use of repeated measurements of the outcome (12 trials), and the use of imputation methods when analyzing data (7 trials).

CONCLUSION

In cluster randomized trials of nursing homes, noncompleters are managed as for any missing data, but they are essentially due to death. Methodological and statistical developments and guidance are needed.

Optimal@NRW: optimized acute care of nursing home residents using an intersectoral telemedical cooperation network - study protocol for a stepped-wedge trial

Background

Increasing life expectancy is associated with a growing number of people living in nursing homes, while the availability of outpatient medical care, especially from family doctors, is stagnating in this sector. Consequently, numerous and often avoidable, low-threshold hospitalizations of nursing home residents are observed. This results in unnecessary use of resources such as emergency services and emergency rooms as well as in potential health risks to the nursing home residents related to hospitalization. This study aims to improve this healthcare gap by implementing an intersectoral telemedicine approach.

Methods

Twenty-five nursing homes are participating and provided with telemedical equipment to perform teleconsultations. Additionally, an early warning system and a digital patient record system are implemented. Telephysicians based at RWTH Aachen University Hospital are ready to support the nursing homes around the clock if the family doctor or an emergency service practice is not available in time. Mobile non-physician practice assistants from the telemedicine centre can be dispatched to perform delegable medical activities. General practitioners and the medical emergency practices also have access to the telemedical infrastructure and the non-physician practice assistants.

Discussion

Optimal@NRW adds a telemedicine component to standard care — combining elements of outpatient and inpatient health care as well as emergency service practices — to enable timely medical consultation for nursing home residents in case of the development of an acute medical condition. In addition to optimized medical care, the goal is to reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The intersectoral approach allows for the appropriate use of resources to match the individually needed medical treatment.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT04879537. Registered on May 10, 2021

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06613-1.

The Course of Depressive Symptoms Over 36 Months in 696 Newly Admitted Nursing Home Residents

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the course of depressive symptoms in newly admitted nursing home (NH) residents and how resident characteristics were associated with the symptoms. To identify groups of residents following the same symptom trajectory.

DESIGN

An observational, multicenter, longitudinal study over 36 months with 7 biannual assessments.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Representing 47 Norwegian NHs, 696 residents were included at admission to a NH.

METHODS

Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD). We selected severity of dementia, functional impairment, physical health, pain, use of antidepressants, age, and sex as covariates. Time trend in CSDD score was assessed by a linear mixed model adjusting for covariates. Next, a growth mixture model was estimated to investigate whether there were groups of residents following distinct trajectories in CSDD scores. We estimated a nominal regression model to assess whether the covariates at admission were associated to group membership.

RESULTS

There was a nonlinear trend in CSDD score. More severe dementia, a lower level of functioning, poorer physical health, more pain, use of antidepressants, and younger age at admission were associated with higher CSDD scores. Growth mixture model identified 4 groups: (1) persistent mild symptoms (32.6%), (2) persistent moderate symptoms (50.8%), (3) increasing symptoms (5.1%), and (4) severe but decreasing symptoms (11.6%). A lower level of functioning, poorer physical health, more pain, use of antidepressants, and younger age at admission were associated with higher odds for belonging to the severe but decreasing symptoms group compared with the persistent mild symptoms group.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Most NH residents were in trajectory groups with persistent mild or moderate depressive symptoms. Residents with more severe dementia, lower levels of functioning, poor physical health, severe pain, younger age at admittance, and who are using antidepressants should be monitored closely and systematically with respect to depression. Taking actions toward a more personalized treatment for depression in NHs is a priority and should be investigated in future studies.

Preferences Elicited and Respected for Seriously Ill Veterans through Enhanced Decision-Making (PERSIVED): a protocol for an implementation study in the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND

Empirical evidence supports the use of structured goals of care conversations and documentation of life-sustaining treatment (LST) preferences in durable, accessible, and actionable orders to improve the care for people living with serious illness. As the largest integrated healthcare system in the USA, the Veterans Health Administration (VA) provides an excellent environment to test implementation strategies that promote this evidence-based practice. The Preferences Elicited and Respected for Seriously Ill Veterans through Enhanced Decision-Making (PERSIVED) program seeks to improve care outcomes for seriously ill Veterans by supporting efforts to conduct goals of care conversations, systematically document LST preferences, and ensure timely and accurate communication about preferences across VA and non-VA settings.

METHODS

PERSIVED encompasses two separate but related implementation projects that support the same evidence-based practice. Project 1 will enroll 12 VA Home Based Primary Care (HBPC) programs and Project 2 will enroll six VA Community Nursing Home (CNH) programs. Both projects begin with a pre-implementation phase during which data from diverse stakeholders are gathered to identify barriers and facilitators to adoption of the LST evidence-based practice. This baseline assessment is used to tailor quality improvement activities using audit with feedback and implementation facilitation during the implementation phase. Site champions serve as the lynchpin between the PERSIVED project team and site personnel. PERSIVED teams support site champions through monthly coaching sessions. At the end of implementation, baseline site process maps are updated to reflect new steps and procedures to ensure timely conversations and documentation of treatment preferences. During the sustainability phase, intense engagement with champions ends, at which point champions work independently to maintain and improve processes and outcomes. Ongoing process evaluation, guided by the RE-AIM framework, is used to monitor Reach, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance outcomes. Effectiveness will be assessed using several endorsed clinical metrics for seriously ill populations.

DISCUSSION

The PERSIVED program aims to prevent potentially burdensome LSTs by consistently eliciting and documenting values, goals, and treatment preferences of seriously ill Veterans. Working with clinical operational partners, we will apply our findings to HBPC and CNH programs throughout the national VA healthcare system during a future scale-out period.

End of life care in UK care homes - controlled drugs: systematic review and narrative synthesis

BACKGROUND

Controlled drugs (CDs) such as opioids and midazolam are commonly used in end-of-life care symptom management for care home residents.

AIM

To review the published evidence concerning the prescribing, storage, use and disposal of CDs for end-of-life care for care home residents in the UK.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis.

METHODS

Seven databases (Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Social Care Online) were searched from January 2000 to January 2021, alongside reference, citation and journal hand searches. Gough's 'Weight of Evidence' framework was used to appraise the relevance of studies to the review questions.

RESULTS

The search yielded 1279 titles, from which 125 abstracts and then 42 full-text papers were screened. 14 papers were included in the synthesis. Prescribing is primarily by general practitioners, with administration by nurses. Nurses frequently report feeling inadequately trained in the use of CDs. The storage, monitoring and disposal of end-of-life care CDs in UK care homes has not been researched to date. The attitudes and experiences of residents and family members regarding these medications also remain unknown.

CONCLUSION

The current widespread use of CDs for end-of-life care in care homes has a limited evidence base. The lack of research concerning the storing, monitoring and disposing of CDs, alongside the limited evidence concerning resident and family members' perspectives, is a significant knowledge deficit that requires urgent attention.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020173014.

Mortality in Thai Nursing Homes Based on Antimicrobial-Resistant Enterobacterales Carriage and COVID-19 Lockdown Timing: A Prospective Cohort Study

Antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown measures may impact the incidence all-cause mortality rate among nursing home residents. To determine the all-cause mortality rate in the presence/absence of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage and the incidence all-cause mortality rate before and during COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, this prospective closed-cohort study was conducted at various types of nursing homes in Bangkok, Thailand, from June 2020 to December 2021. The elderly residents included 142 participants (aged ≥60 years) living in nursing homes ≥3 months, who did not have terminal illnesses. Time-to-event analyses with Cox proportional hazards models and stratified log-rank tests were used. The all-cause mortality rate was 18%, and the incidence all-cause mortality rate was 0.59/1000 person-days in residents who had antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales carriage at baseline. Meanwhile, the incidence all-cause mortality rate among noncarriage was 0.17/1000 person-days. The mortality incidence rate of carriage was three times higher than residents who were noncarriage without statistical significance (HR 3.2; 95% CI 0.74, 13.83). Residents in nonprofit nursing homes had a higher mortality rate than those in for-profit nursing homes (OR 9.24; 95% CI 2.14, 39.86). The incidence mortality rate during and before lockdown were 0.62 and 0.30, respectively. Effective infection-control policies akin to hospital-based systems should be endorsed in all types of nursing homes. To limit the interruption of long-term chronic care, COVID-19 prevention should be individualized to nursing homes.

Repeat hospital transfers among long stay nursing home residents: a mixed methods analysis of age, race, code status and clinical complexity

Background

Nursing home residents are at increased risk for hospital transfers resulting in emergency department visits, observation stays, and hospital admissions; transfers that can also result in adverse resident outcomes. Many nursing home to hospital transfers are potentially avoidable. Residents who experience repeat transfers are particularly vulnerable to adverse outcomes, yet characteristics of nursing home residents who experience repeat transfers are poorly understood. Understanding these characteristics more fully will help identify appropriate intervention efforts needed to reduce repeat transfers.

Methods

This is a mixed-methods study using hospital transfer data, collected between 2017 and 2019, from long-stay nursing home residents residing in 16 Midwestern nursing homes who transferred four or more times within a 12-month timeframe. Data were obtained from an acute care transfer tool used in the Missouri Quality Initiative containing closed- and open-ended questions regarding hospital transfers. The Missouri Quality Initiative was a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid demonstration project focused on reducing avoidable hospital transfers for long stay nursing home residents. The purpose of the analysis presented here is to describe characteristics of residents from that project who experienced repeat transfers including resident age, race, and code status. Clinical, resident/family, and organizational factors that influenced transfers were also described.

Results

Findings indicate that younger residents (less than 65 years of age), those who were full-code status, and those who were Black were statistically more likely to experience repeat transfers. Clinical complexity, resident/family requests to transfer, and lack of nursing home resources to manage complex clinical conditions underlie repeat transfers, many of which were considered potentially avoidable.

Conclusions

Improved nursing home resources are needed to manage complex conditions in the NH and to help residents and families set realistic goals of care and plan for end of life thus reducing potentially avoidable transfers.

Mortality in nursing home residents stratified according to subtype of dementia: a longitudinal study over three years

Background

There are several subtypes of dementia caused by different pathophysiology and with different clinical characteristics. Irrespective subtype, the disease is progressive, eventually leading to the need for care and supervision on a 24/7 basis, often provided in nursing homes (NH). The progression rate and course of the disease might vary according to subtype. The aim of this study was to explore whether the mortality rate for NH residents varied according to the subtype of dementia.

Methods

NH residents were followed from admission to NH over a period of 36 months or until death with annual follow-up examinations. Demographic and clinical data were collected. The diagnosis of dementia and its subtype at baseline (BL) were set according to international accepted criteria. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to estimate median survival time. A Cox regression model was estimated to assess the impact of dementia diagnosis and demographic and clinical variables on mortality.

Results

A total of 1349 participants were included. When compared to persons with Alzheimer’s disease (AD), persons with frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and dementia with Lewy bodies or Parkinson’s disease dementia (DLB/PDD) were younger and had more neuropsychiatric symptoms. Median survival for the total sample was 2.3 years (95% confidence interval: 2.2–2.5). When compared to persons with AD, having no dementia or unspecified dementia was associated with higher mortality, while we found similar mortality in other subtypes of dementia. Higher age, male gender, poorer general health, higher dependency in activities of daily living, and more affective symptoms were associated with higher mortality.

Conclusion

Mortality did not differ across the subtypes of dementia, except in persons with unspecified dementia or without dementia, where we found a higher mortality. With a median survival of 2.3 years, NH residents are in the last stage of their lives and care and medical follow-up should focus on a palliative approach. However, identifying the subtype of dementia might help carers to better understand and address neuropsychiatric symptoms and to customize medical treatment.

Mortality of care home residents and community-dwelling controls during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020: matched cohort study

Objective

This study aimed to estimate and compare mortality of care home residents, and matched community-dwelling controls, during the COVID-19 pandemic from primary care electronic health records in England.

Design

Matched cohort study.

Setting and Participants

Family practices in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. There were 83,627 care home residents in 2020, with 26,923 deaths; 80,730 (97%) were matched on age, sex, and family practice with 300,445 community-dwelling adults.

Methods

All-cause mortality was evaluated and adjusted rate ratios by negative binomial regression were adjusted for age, sex, number of long-term conditions, frailty category, region, calendar month or week, and clustering by family practice.

Results

Underlying mortality of care home residents was higher than community controls (adjusted rate ratio 5.59, 95% confidence interval 5.23‒5.99, P < .001). During April 2020, there was a net increase in mortality of care home residents over that of controls. The mortality rate of care home residents was 27.2 deaths per 1000 patients per week, compared with 2.31 per 1000 for controls. Excess deaths for care home residents, above that predicted from pre-pandemic years, peaked between April 13 and 19 (men, 27.7, 95% confidence interval 25.1‒30.3; women, 17.4, 15.9‒18.8 per 1000 per week). Compared with care home residents, long-term conditions and frailty were differentially associated with greater mortality in community-dwelling controls.

Conclusions and Implications

Individual-patient data from primary care electronic health records may be used to estimate mortality in care home residents. Mortality is substantially higher than for community-dwelling comparators and showed a disproportionate increase in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Care home residents require particular protection during periods of high infectious disease transmission.

Factors Affecting Hospitalization and Death of Older Patients Who Need Long-Term Care—The Necessity of the Support for Dysphagia in Home Dental Care

The demand for home dental care is increasing, but how it should be involved in the continuation of life at home for elderly people who need care has not been examined. Therefore, we examined whether items examined by dentists can affect hospitalization and death. The study included 239 patients with oral intake. They were divided into regular and non-regular diet groups, and ages, nutritional statuses, activities of daily living (ADLs), Charlson Comorbidity Indexes (CCI) and swallowing functions were compared. The nutritional statuses and ADLs of the three groups at the first visit and after one year were compared. The groups included those with stable, declined and improved diet forms. Factors influencing hospitalization and death over three years were examined. Nutritional status, swallowing function, CCI and ADLs were worse in the non-regular diet group. The declined diet form group had lower ADL levels and nutritional statuses at the first visit. A proportional hazards analysis showed significant differences in the changes in diet form for the stable and declined groups related to hospitalization (hazard ratio (HR): 6.53) and death (HR: 3.76). Changes in diet form were thought to affect hospitalization and death, and it is worthwhile to assess swallowing function in home dental care.

BABEL (Better tArgeting, Better outcomes for frail ELderly patients) advance care planning: a comprehensive approach to advance care planning in nursing homes: a cluster randomised trial

Background

Nursing home (NH) residents should have the opportunity to consider, discuss and document their healthcare wishes. However, such advance care planning (ACP) is frequently suboptimal.

Objective

Assess a comprehensive, person-centred ACP approach.

Design

Unblinded, cluster randomised trial.

Setting

Fourteen control and 15 intervention NHs in three Canadian provinces, 2018–2020.

Subjects

713 residents (442 control, 271 intervention) aged ≥65 years, with elevated mortality risk.

Methods

The intervention was a structured, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$\sim$\end{document}60-min discussion between a resident, substitute decision-maker (SDM) and nursing home staff to: (i) confirm SDMs’ identities and role; (ii) prepare SDMs for medical emergencies; (iii) explain residents’ clinical condition and prognosis; (iv) ascertain residents’ preferred philosophy to guide decision-making and (v) identify residents’ preferred options for specific medical emergencies. Control NHs continued their usual ACP processes. Co-primary outcomes were: (a) comprehensiveness of advance care planning, assessed using the Audit of Advance Care Planning, and (b) Comfort Assessment in Dying. Ten secondary outcomes were assessed. P-values were adjusted for all 12 outcomes using the false discovery rate method.

Results

The intervention resulted in 5.21-fold higher odds of respondents rating ACP comprehensiveness as being better (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.53, 7.61). Comfort in dying did not differ (difference = −0.61; 95% CI −2.2, 1.0). Among the secondary outcomes, antimicrobial use was significantly lower in intervention homes (rate ratio = 0.79, 95% CI 0.66, 0.94).

Conclusions

Superior comprehensiveness of the BABEL approach to ACP underscores the importance of allowing adequate time to address all important aspects of ACP and may reduce unwanted interventions towards the end of life.

Discontinuation of beta-blockers among nursing home residents at end of life

BACKGROUND

Given limited life expectancy of nursing home (NH) residents, harms of continuing beta-blockers (BBs) may outweigh clinical benefits. Our objective was to describe beta-blocker discontinuation for NH residents during the last year of life, and identify characteristics associated with earlier discontinuation.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study that included all long-stay residents in fee-for-service Medicare who died in 2016 and were prescribed oral BBs 1 year before death. Beta-blocker discontinuation was defined as a gap in medication on hand for ≥45 days per Medicare Part D claims, measured from the last date drug was on hand. Comorbidities were obtained from Chronic Condition Warehouse, and other characteristics from the Minimum Data Set. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to describe time to first discontinuation. Findings were stratified by cardiac diagnoses, perceived life expectancy of <6 months, or elevated mortality index.

RESULTS

Eighty-eight thousand two hundred and eighty-four residents were prescribed ≥1 daily BB 12 months before death. Mean age was 84.1 years and 69.2% were female. Of these, 60,573 residents (68.6%) remained on a BB in the last 45 days of life, and 57,880 residents (65.6%) had ≥1 cardiac diagnosis. Only 5239 residents (5.9%) had elevated mortality index, whereas 16,798 residents (19.0%) had perceived poor prognosis. In the last year of life, there was no difference in beta-blocker discontinuation pattern between residents with and without cardiac diagnoses. Residents with perceived poor prognosis and elevated mortality index discontinued BBs earlier. For example, mean time until discontinuation among residents with poor perceived prognosis was 245 versus 279 days in residents without such prognosis (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

BBs are commonly prescribed to NH residents in the final year of life. Overall, discontinuation occurs earlier in residents for whom clinicians perceive limited life expectancy, suggesting that improved prognostication may offer an important opportunity to reduce polypharmacy toward end of life.

Hidden lives and deaths: the last months of life of people with intellectual disabilities living in long-term, generic care settings in the UK

RATIONALE

This paper concerns mortality and needs for end-of-life care in a population of adults with ID living in generic care homes.

METHODS

Various sampling strategies were used to identify a difficult to find a population of people with ID in generic care homes. Demographic and health data were obtained for 132 people with ID. This included the Surprise Question. At T2, 12 months later, data were obtained on the survival of this sample.

FINDINGS

The average age was 68.6 years, and the majority were women (55.3%). Their health was typically rated as good or better. Responses to the Surprise Question indicated that 23.3% respondents might need EoLC. At T2, 18.0% of this population had died. The average of death was 72.2 years. The majority died within the care setting (62.9%).

IMPLICATIONS

The implications for end-of-life care and mortality research are discussed.

Leveraging survey and claims data to identify high-need Medicare beneficiaries in the National Health and Aging Trends Study

BACKGROUND

Multiple algorithms have been developed to identify and characterize the high-need (HN) Medicare population. However, they vary in components and yield different populations, and were developed for varying purposes. We compared the performance of existing survey and claims-based definitions in identifying HN beneficiaries and predicting poor outcomes among a community-dwelling population.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using Round 5 (2015) of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) linked with Medicare claims. We applied HN definitions from previous studies to our cohort of community-dwelling, fee-for-service beneficiaries (n = 4201) using sampling weights to obtain nationally representative estimates. The Bélanger et al. (2019) definition defines HN as individuals with complex conditions, multi-morbidity, acute and post-acute healthcare utilization, dependency in activities of daily living, and frailty. The Hayes et al. (2016) definition defines HN as individuals with 3+ chronic conditions and a functional limitation. We applied each definition to survey and claims data. Outcomes were hospitalization or mortality in the subsequent year.

RESULTS

The proportion of NHATS respondents classified as HN varied greatly across definitions, ranging from 3.1% using the claims-based Hayes definition to 32.9% using the survey-based Bélanger definition. HN respondents had significantly higher mortality and hospitalization rates in 2016. Although all definitions had good specificity, none were able to predict outcomes in the following year with good accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

While mortality and hospitalization rates were significantly higher among respondents classified as HN, existing claims and survey-based HN definitions were not able to accurately predict future outcomes in a community-dwelling, nationally representative sample measured by the area under the curve.

Identifying Unexpected Deaths in Long-Term Care Homes

OBJECTIVES

Predicting unexpected deaths among long-term care (LTC) residents can provide valuable information to clinicians and policy makers. We study multiple methods to predict unexpected death, adjusting for individual and home-level factors, and to use as a step to compare mortality differences at the facility level in the future work.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set assessment data for all LTC residents in Ontario, Canada, from April 2017 to March 2018.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

All residents in Ontario long-term homes. We used data routinely collected as part of administrative reporting by health care providers to the funder: Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. This project is a component of routine policy development to ensure safety of the LTC system residents.

METHODS

Logistic regression (LR), mixed-effect LR (mixLR), and a machine learning algorithm (XGBoost) were used to predict individual mortality over 5 to 95 days after the last available RAI assessment.

RESULTS

We identified 22,419 deaths in the cohort of 106,366 cases (mean age: 83.1 years; female: 67.7%; dementia: 68.8%; functional decline: 16.6%). XGBoost had superior calibration and discrimination (C-statistic 0.837) over both mixLR (0.819) and LR (0.813). The models had high correlation in predicting death (LR-mixLR: 0.979, LR-XGBoost: 0.885, mixLR-XGBoost: 0.882). The inter-rater reliability between the models LR-mixLR and LR-XGBoost was 0.56 and 0.84, respectively. Using results in which all 3 models predicted probability of actual death of a resident at <5% yielded 210 unexpected deaths or 0.9% of the observed deaths.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

XGBoost outperformed other models, but the combination of 3 models provides a method to detect facilities with potentially higher rates of unexpected deaths while minimizing the possibility of false positives and could be useful for ongoing surveillance and quality assurance at the facility, regional, and national levels.

Training Staff in Long-Term Care Facilities-Effects on Residents' Symptoms, Psychological Well-Being, and Proxy Satisfaction

CONTEXT

Long-term care facility (LTCF) residents have unmet needs in end-of-life and symptom care.

OBJECTIVES

This study examines the effects of an end-of-life care staff training intervention on LTCF residents' pain, symptoms, and psychological well-being and their proxies' satisfaction with care.

METHODS

We report findings from a single-blind, cluster randomized controlled trial featuring 324 residents with end-of-life care needs in 20 LTCF wards in Helsinki. The training intervention included four 4-hour educational workshops on palliative care principles (advance care planning, adverse effects of hospitalizations, symptom management, communication, supporting proxies, challenging situations). Training was provided to all members of staff in small groups. Education was based on constructive learning methods and included participants' own resident cases, role-plays, and small-group discussions. During a 12-month follow-up we assessed residents' symptoms with the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale (ESAS), pain with the PAINAD instrument and psychological well-being using a PWB questionnaire. Proxies' satisfaction with care was assessed using the SWC-EOLD.

RESULTS

The change in ESAS symptom scores from baseline to 6 months favored the intervention group compared with the control group. However, the finding was diluted at 12 months. PAINAD, PWB, and SWC-EOLD scores remained unaffected by the intervention. All follow-up analyses were adjusted for age, gender, do-not-resuscitate order, need for help, and clustering.

CONCLUSION

Our rigorous randomized controlled trial on palliative care training intervention demonstrated mild effects on residents' symptoms and no robust effects on psychological well-being or on proxies' satisfaction with care.

Mortality and characteristics of older people dying with COVID-19 in Lombardy nursing homes, Italy: An observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of Nursing Homes (NHs) residents infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and to compute the related case-fatality rate.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The outcomes were mortality and case-fatality rate with related epidemiological characteristics (age, sex, comorbidity, and frailty).

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 outbreak lasted from March 1 to May 7, 2020, 330 residents died in Fondazione Don Gnocchi NHs bringing the mortality rate to 27% with a dramatic increase compared to the same period of 2019, when it was 7.5%. Naso/oropharyngeal swabs resulted positive for COVID-19 in 315 (71%) of the 441of the symptomatic/exposed residents tested. The COVID-19 population was 75% female, with a 17% overall fatality rate and sex-specific fatality rates of 19% and 13% for females and males, respectively. Fifty-six percent of deaths presented SARS-CoV-2-associated pneumonia, 15% cardiovascular, and 29% miscellaneous pathologies.

CONCLUSION

Patients' complexity and frailty might influence SARS-CoV-2 infection case-fatality rate estimates. A COVID-19 register is needed to study COVID-19 frail patients' epidemiology and characteristics.

Explanatory survival model for nursing home residents- a 9-year retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

There is a gap in the literature regarding the analysis of long-term survival and mortality risk factors among disabled and multimorbid institutionalized populations. The study aimed to analyze 9-year survival, investigate mortality factors, and develop an explanatory survival model for nursing home residents.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study with a 9-year follow-up (2009-2018) was conducted among 96 residents of a nursing home with Barthel index ≤ 40. The study was based on baseline measurements performed in 2009, which included results obtained on geriatric scales: Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form (MNA-SF) and Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMTS). Information on demographics, comorbidities, pharmacotherapy, transfers and deaths came from medical records. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate and present survival data. Factors associated with mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

The median survival was 2.9 years. Mortality during the follow-up period was 83%. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that residents with normal nutritional status (p = 0.002) and taking aspirin (p = 0.005) had a better 9-year survival. The multivariable Cox regression model revealed that the risk of mortality (Hazard Ratio, HR) increased in older age (HR=1.04), male gender (HR=2.08), with risk of malnutrition (HR=3.91), malnutrition (HR=4.84), and presence of urinary incontinence (HR=2.14). The aspirin use was the strongest protective factor against death (HR=0.40).

CONCLUSION

The aspirin use was associated with better long-term survival for nursing home residents. Factors associated with higher mortality among residents include older age, male gender, poor nutritional status, and urinary incontinence.

BRIEF SUMMARY

We are the first to report the beneficial effects of a low-dose of aspirin on the long-term survival of disabled, institutionalized populations with multimorbidity. Furthermore, this study presents an explanatory model of survival for nursing home residents and identifies the long-term mortality risk factors among disabled residents with multimorbidity.

Overall mortality in older people receiving physician-led home visits: a multicentre prospective study in Japan

BACKGROUND

Japan has the most rapidly ageing population in the world. The Japanese government has, therefore, promoted physician-led home health care for frail and disabled people.

OBJECTIVES

To describe mortality among older people receiving physician-led health care at home or at a nursing home in Japan and to identify risk factors.

METHODS

This was a multicentre prospective cohort study. Participants were aged ≥65 years and had started to receive regular physician-led health care at home or at nursing homes from 13 facilities between 1 February 2013 and 31 January 2016. The observation period ended on 31 January 2017. We used a biopsychosocial approach for exploratory analysis of 13 variables to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

The median (25th to 75th percentile) observation time was 417 (121-744) days. Of 825 participants, 380 died. The total cumulative survival for 180, 360, 720 and 1440 days was 73.4% (95% confidence interval: 70.2-76.3), 64.2% (60.8-67.5), 52.6% (48.8-56.3) and 34.6% (23.5-46.0). The Kaplan-Meier cumulative survival curve showed a steep drop during the first 6 months of observation. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model showed that sex (male), high Charlson Comorbidity Index score, low serum albumin level, low Barthel Index score, receipt of oxygen therapy, high Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia score and non-receipt of public assistance were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall mortality in physician-led home visits in Japan was described and mortality risk factors identified. Public assistance receipt was associated with lower mortality.

The relationship between guilt feelings, conflicts with staff and satisfaction with care in relatives of nursing home residents with dementia: A longitudinal analysis

INTRODUCTION

Family caregivers often experience guilt after nursing home placement. The aim of the present study was to describe family caregivers' guilt over time and assess the impact of conflicts with staff and satisfaction with care on guilt.

METHOD

Data of 222 family caregivers at three assessments during one-year follow-up were used. In addition to caregivers' guilt and the variables conflicts with staff and satisfaction with the care, potential confounders were measured: sociodemographic data, clinical characteristics of the person with dementia, and caregiver burden. Linear mixed model analyses were performed to examine the longitudinal relationships between variables.

RESULTS

Guilt remained stable over time. Unadjusted models showed that conflicts with staff were positively associated with guilt (β = 0.11; p < 0.001; 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.16) and satisfaction with care showed a negative association with guilt (β = -0.10; p< 0.05; 95% CI: -0.18 to -0.01). After adjusting for the confounders, only the positive association of guilt with conflicts with staff was similar as in the unadjusted analysis (β = 0.11; p < 0.001; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.16), whereas satisfaction with care was not significantly associated with guilt in the adjusted analyses (β = -0.07; p = 0.10; 95% CI: -0.16 to 0.01).

DISCUSSION

More conflicts with staff are associated with stronger guilt feelings. Guilt feelings are experienced by caregivers even after the admission of the person with dementia, and they remain stable over time. Further studies should focus on how to address guilt in family caregivers of people with dementia living in nursing homes.

Does rehabilitation setting influence risk of institutionalization? A register-based study of hip fracture patients in Oslo, Norway

Background

Reducing the economic impact of hip fractures (HF) is a global issue. Some efforts aimed at curtailing costs associated with HF include rehabilitating patients within primary care. Little, however, is known about how different rehabilitation settings within primary care influence patients’ subsequent risk of institutionalization for long-term care (LTC). This study examines the association between rehabilitation setting (outside an institution versus short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution, both during 30 days post-discharge for HF) and risk of institutionalization in a nursing home (at 6–12 months from the index admission).

Methods

Data were for 612 HF incidents across 611 patients aged 50 years and older, who were hospitalized between 2008 and 2013 in Oslo, Norway, and who lived at home prior to the incidence. We used logistic regression to examine the effect of rehabilitation setting on risk of institutionalization, and adjusted for patients’ age, gender, health characteristics, functional level, use of healthcare services, and socioeconomic characteristics. The models also included fixed-effects for Oslo’s boroughs to control for supply-side and unobserved effects.

Results

The sample of HF patients had a mean age of 82.4 years, and 78.9 % were women. Within 30 days after hospital discharge, 49.0 % of patients received rehabilitation outside an institution, while the remaining 51.0 % received a short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution. Receiving rehabilitation outside an institution was associated with a 58 % lower odds (OR = 0.42, 95 % CI = 0.23–0.76) of living in a nursing home at 6–12 months after the index admission. The patients who were admitted to a nursing home for LTC were older, more dependent on help with their memory, and had a substantially greater increase in the use of municipal healthcare services after the HF.

Conclusions

The setting in which HF patients receive rehabilitation is associated with their likelihood of institutionalization. In the current study, patients who received rehabilitation outside of an institution were less likely to be admitted to a nursing home for LTC, compared to those who received a short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution. These results suggest that providing rehabilitation at home may be favorable in terms of reducing risk of institutionalization for HF patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-06703-x.

Despite Symptom Severity, do Nursing Home Residents Experience Joy-of-Life? The Associations Between Joy-of-Life and Symptom Severity in Norwegian Nursing Home Residents

Background: Finding new approaches to increase health and well-being among nursing home (NH) residents is highly warranted. From a holistic perspective, several Norwegian municipalities have implemented the certification scheme framed "Joy-of-Life Nursing Home" Aims: In a holistic perspective on NH care, this study investigated if NH residents despite potential symptom severity experience joy-of-life (JoL). Therefore, we examined the frequency of common symptoms and the association between common symptoms and JoL in cognitively intact NH residents. Methods: A cross-sectional design was employed. Using the QLQ-C15-PAL quality-of-life questionnaire, hospital anxiety and depression scale, and JoL scale, a total of 188 cognitively intact NH residents participated. Results: Symptom severity was high; 54% reported fatigue, 52% reported constipation, 45% reported pain, 43% reported dyspnea, 32% reported insomnia, 22% reported appetite loss, and 20% reported nausea, while 20% reported anxiety and 23% reported depressive symptoms. Nevertheless, 59% of the NH residents reported high JoL, which was significantly positively related to the quality of life and negatively associated with anxiety and depression.

Advance care planning in nursing homes: new conversation and documentation tools

Although advance care planning (ACP) is highly relevant for nursing home residents, its uptake in nursing homes is low. To meet the need for context-specific ACP tools to support nursing home staff in conducting ACP conversations, we developed the ACP+intervention. At its core, we designed three ACP tools to aid care staff in discussing and documenting nursing home resident's wishes and preferences for future treatment and care: (1) an extensive ACP conversation guide, (2) a one-page conversation tool and (3) an ACP document to record outcomes of conversations. These nursing home-specific ACP tools aim to avoid a purely document-driven or 'tick-box' approach to the ACP process and to involve residents, including those living with dementia according to their capacity, their families and healthcare professionals.

Do older parents' assistance needs deter parent-child geographic divergence in Norway?

The role of intergenerational geographic proximity in individuals' migration decisions has been well-established. The circumstances under which parents and their adult children move away from or remain close to each other are, however, less clear. Drawing on Norwegian register data for 2014-2016 and three-level logistic regression models, we examine whether formal care needs of older parents (aged ≥65) deter parent-child geographic divergence and whether variation in the likelihood of divergence is associated with municipal-level characteristics. After accounting for location-specific capital and parents' and children's sociodemographic characteristics, parents and children were less likely to diverge after the onset of parental care needs. Utilising in-home nursing decreased the likelihood of divergence for mothers while utilising institutionalised care decreased the likelihood of divergence for fathers. The use of in-home nursing care among single mothers further reduced the likelihood of divergence. Parents and adult children living in central areas were the least likely to diverge geographically. The likelihood of intergenerational divergence was lower for fathers and children living in municipalities with high healthcare spending.

Infections and patterns of antibiotic utilization in support and comfort care patients: A tertiary care center experience

PURPOSE

Little is known regarding the burden of infections and clinical practice towards hospitalized patients with limits on life-sustaining measures. We aim to describe the infectious syndromes, clinical care, the emergence of multi-drug resistant organisms and outcomes in this population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort of patients labeled as support or comfort care in a tertiary care center between 2016-2019.

RESULTS

A total of 347 patients were included with a mean age of 68.5 years, who were predominantly males (59.94%), bedbound (69.74%), on tube feeding (66.86%), and required indwelling urinary catheters (61.96%). The total number of admissions during the first year was 498, with the mean length of stay being 30 days. The number of infectious syndromes identified during that period was 821episodes, with a mean of 2 infectious syndromes per admission. The most common infection identified was pneumonia (41.66%) followed by urinary tract infections (27.16%). A total of 3891 microbiological cultures were taken with a mean of 5 cultures per infectious syndrome. The most commonly identified pathogens were Gram-negative bacteria (61.03%), with a high rate of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) (48.53%). The one-year mortality was 86.4%. Using carbapenem antibiotic and pneumonia were the independent predictors used for the MDROs.

CONCLUSION

Our study reflects the high burden of infections, antimicrobial resistance, and hospital admissions among a population with limited life expectancy. A consensus regarding investigating and managing of infectious syndromes, and antimicrobial prescription is needed to reduce the harms associated with overuse of antimicrobials.

Factors Associated with Mortality Including Nursing Home Transitions: A Retrospective Analysis of 25,418 People Prescribed Anti-Dementia Drugs in Northern Ireland

BACKGROUND

Understanding factors associated with mortality after a dementia diagnosis can provide essential information to the person with dementia, their family, and caregivers. To date very little is known about the factors associated with mortality after a dementia diagnosis in Northern Ireland.

OBJECTIVE

To determine how demographic and other factors such as deprivation and comorbidity medications influence mortality rates after a dementia diagnosis in Northern Ireland and whether these factors are influenced through nursing home transitions.

METHODS

25,418 people prescribed anti-dementia medication were identified through the enhanced prescribing database between 2010 and 2016. The impact of covariates including age, gender, marital status, deprivation measure, urban/rural classification, and comorbidity medications were examined using cox proportional hazard models with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2016, 12,129 deaths occurred, with 114 deaths/1,000 person years. Males had significantly higher mortality rates in comparison to females (HR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.23-1.33); this was true regardless of whether the person with dementia transitioned to a nursing home. People prescribed anti-dementia drugs living with lower levels of deprivation had significantly lower mortality rates in comparison to people living with the highest levels of deprivation (HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.89-0.97). Diabetic (HR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.07-1.29) and anti-arrhythmic (HR = 2.44; 95% CI = 1.01-5.91) medication in particular significantly influenced mortality.

CONCLUSION

Male gender, higher comorbidity medications, and living in areas of higher deprivation significantly increased mortality rates for people prescribed anti-dementia drugs in our study population. When comorbidity medications were classified, only anti-arrhythmia and diabetic medications significantly increased mortality. Future research should continue to investigate factors which influence mortality after a dementia diagnosis.

Reducing Morbidity and Mortality Rates from COVID-19, Influenza and Pneumococcal Illness in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities by Vaccination and Comprehensive Infection Control Interventions

The COVID-19 pandemic identifies the problems of preventing respiratory illnesses in seniors, especially frail multimorbidity seniors in nursing homes and Long-Term Care Facilities (LCTFs). Medline and Embase were searched for nursing homes, long-term care facilities, respiratory tract infections, disease transmission, infection control, mortality, systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For seniors, there is strong evidence to vaccinate against influenza, SARS-CoV-2 and pneumococcal disease, and evidence is awaited for effectiveness against COVID-19 variants and when to revaccinate. There is strong evidence to promptly introduce comprehensive infection control interventions in LCFTs: no admissions from inpatient wards with COVID-19 patients; quarantine and monitor new admissions in single-patient rooms; screen residents, staff and visitors daily for temperature and symptoms; and staff work in only one home. Depending on the vaccination situation and the current risk situation, visiting restrictions and meals in the residents' own rooms may be necessary, and reduce crowding with individual patient rooms. Regional LTCF administrators should closely monitor and provide staff and PPE resources. The CDC COVID-19 tool measures 33 infection control indicators. Hand washing, social distancing, PPE (gowns, gloves, masks, eye protection), enhanced cleaning of rooms and high-touch surfaces need comprehensive implementation while awaiting more studies at low risk of bias. Individual ventilation with HEPA filters for all patient and common rooms and hallways is needed.

National Trends in Statin Use among the United States Nursing Home Population (2011-2016)

BACKGROUND

Little is known about trends in statin use in United States (US) nursing homes.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe national trends in statin use in nursing homes and evaluate the impact of the introduction of generic statins, safety warnings, and guideline recommendations on statin use.

METHODS

This study employed a repeated cross-sectional prevalence design to evaluate monthly statin use in long-stay US nursing home residents enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service using the Minimum Data Set 3.0 and Medicare Part D claims between April 2011 and December 2016. Stratified by age (65-75 years, ≥ 76 years), analyses estimated trends and level changes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) following statin-related events (the availability of generic statins, American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guideline updates, and US FDA safety warnings) through segmented regression models corrected for autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Statin use increased from April 2011 to December 2016 (65-75 years: 38.6-43.3%; ≥ 76 years: 26.5% to 30.0%), as did high-intensity statin use (65-75 years: 4.8-9.5%; ≥ 76 years: 2.3-4.5%). The introduction of generic statins yielded little impact on the prevalence of statins in nursing home residents. Positive trend changes in high-intensity statin use occurred following national guideline updates in December 2011 (65-75 years: β = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09-0.22; ≥ 76 years: β = 0.09, 95% CI 0.06-0.12) and November 2013 (65-75 years: β = 0.11, 95% CI 0.09-0.13; ≥ 76 years: β = 0.04, 95% CI 0.03-0.05). There were negative trend changes for any statin use concurrent with FDA statin safety warnings in March 2012 among both age groups (65-75 years: β trend change = - 0.06, 95% CI - 0.10 to - 0.02; ≥ 76 years: β trend change = - 0.05, 95% CI - 0.08 to - 0.01). The publication of the results of a statin deprescribing trial yielded a decrease in any statin use among the ≥ 76 years age group (β level change = - 0.25, 95% CI - 0.48 to - 0.09; β trend change = - 0.03, 95% CI - 0.04 to - 0.01), with both age groups observing a positive trend change with high-intensity statins (65-75 years: β = 0.11, 95% CI 0.02-0.21; ≥ 76 years: β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.09).

CONCLUSION

Overall, statin use in US nursing homes increased from 2011 to 2016. Guidelines and statin-related events appeared to impact use in the nursing home setting. As such, statin guidelines and messaging should provide special consideration for nursing home populations, who may have more risk than benefit from statin pharmacotherapy.

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to "flatten the curve" of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20-40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5-10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.