Ecological Contexts of Index Cases and Spillover Events of Different Ebolaviruses

SARS-CoV-2 infection in brown-headed spider monkeys (Ateles fusciceps) at a wildlife rescue center on the coast of Ecuador-South America

Human populations can be affected in unpredictable ways by the emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases. The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) pandemic was a reminder of how devastating these events can be if left unchecked. However, once they have spread globally, the impact of these diseases when entering non-exposed wildlife populations is unknown. The current study reports the infection of brown-headed spider monkeys (Ateles fusciceps) at a wildlife rescue center in Ecuador. Four monkeys were hospitalized, and all tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) by RT-qPCR (Quantitative Reverse Transcription PCR). Fecal samples (n = 12) from monkeys at the rescue center also tested positive; three zookeepers responsible for feeding and deworming the monkeys also tested positive, suggesting human-animal transmission. Whole genome sequencing identified most samples' omicron clade 22B BA.5 lineage. These findings highlight the threat posed by an emerging zoonotic disease in wildlife species and the importance of preventing spillover and spillback events during epidemic or pandemic events.IMPORTANCEAlthough COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) has been primarily contained in humans through widespread vaccination, the impact and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) and its transmission and epidemiology in wildlife may need to be addressed. In some natural environments, the proximity of animals to humans is difficult to control, creating perfect scenarios where susceptible wildlife can acquire the virus from humans. In these places, it is essential to understand how transmission can occur and to develop protocols to prevent infection. This study reports the infection of brown-headed spider monkeys with SARS-CoV-2, a red-listed monkey species, at a wildlife recovery center in Ecuador. This study reports the infection of brown-headed spider monkeys with SARS-CoV-2, indicating the potential for transmission between humans and wildlife primates and the importance of preventing such events in the future.

Using serosurveys to optimize surveillance for zoonotic pathogens

Zoonotic pathogens pose a significant risk to human health, with spillover into human populations contributing to chronic disease, sporadic epidemics, and occasional pandemics. Despite the widely recognized burden of zoonotic spillover, our ability to identify which animal populations serve as primary reservoirs for these pathogens remains incomplete. This challenge is compounded when prevalence reaches detectable levels only at specific times of year. In these cases, statistical models designed to predict the timing of peak prevalence could guide field sampling for active infections. Here we develop a general model that leverages routinely collected serosurveillance data to optimize sampling for elusive pathogens. Using simulated data sets we show that our methodology reliably identifies times when pathogen prevalence is expected to peak. We then apply our method to two putative Ebolavirus reservoirs, straw-colored fruit bats (Eidolon helvum) and hammer-headed bats (Hypsignathus monstrosus) to predict when these species should be sampled to maximize the probability of detecting active infections. In addition to guiding future sampling of these species, our method yields predictions for the times of year that are most likely to produce future spillover events. The generality and simplicity of our methodology make it broadly applicable to a wide range of putative reservoir species where seasonal patterns of birth lead to predictable, but potentially short-lived, pulses of pathogen prevalence.

Yellow fever in Ghana: Predicting emergence and ecology from historical outbreaks

Understanding the epidemiology and ecology of yellow fever in endemic regions is critical for preventing future outbreaks. Ghana is a high-risk country for yellow fever. In this study we estimate the epidemiology, ecological cycles, and areas at risk for yellow fever in Ghana based on historical outbreaks. We identify 2371 cases and 887 deaths (case fatality rate 37.4%) from yellow fever reported in Ghana from 1910 to 2022. Since implementation of routine childhood vaccination in 1992, the estimated mean annual number of cases decreased by 81% and the geographic distribution of yellow fever cases also changed. While there have been multiple large historical outbreaks of yellow fever in Ghana from the urban cycle, recent outbreaks have originated among unvaccinated nomadic groups in rural areas with the sylvatic/savanna cycles. Using machine learning and an ecological niche modeling framework, we predict areas in Ghana that are similar to where prior yellow fever outbreaks have originated based on temperature, precipitation, landcover, elevation, and human population density. We find differences in predictions depending on the ecological cycles of outbreaks. Ultimately, these findings and methods could be used to inform further subnational risk assessments for yellow fever in Ghana and other high-risk countries.

Lineage classification and selective site identification of Orthoebolavirus zairense

As the high pathogenic species of Filoviridae virus family, Orthoebolavirus zairense (EBOV) shows frequent outbreaks in human in recently years since its first emerging in 1976 in Democratic Republic of the Congo (COD), bringing ongoing risks and burden on public health safety. Here, the phylogenetic relationship among major outbreaks was analyzed. The results showed that EBOV isolates could be divided into four lineages according to spatial and temporal epidemics. Then, the positive selection sites (PSSs) were detected on all proteins of the EBOV, exhibiting lineage characteristic. Particularly, sites in GP and VP24 were identified to be significantly under positive selection, and partial of which were maintained in the latest isolates in 2021. GP and L were found to have high variability between lineages. Substitutions including F443L and F443S in GP, as well as F1610L and I1951V in L could be characteristic of the two large outbreaks in COD (2018) and West Africa (2014), respectively. Further, substitutions of significant PSSs in VP24 and L proteins were visualized for analysis of structural changes, which may affect EBOV pathogenesis. In summary, our results gains insights in genetic characteristic and adaptive evolution of EBOV, which could facilitate gene functional research against EBOV.

Ebola virus disease in children: epidemiology, pathogenesis, management, and prevention

Ebola disease is a severe disease with extremely high case-fatality rates ranging from 28-100%. Observations made during the 2013-2016 West African epidemic improved our understanding of the clinical course of Ebola disease and accelerated the study of therapeutic and preventative strategies. The epidemic also highlighted the unique challenges associated with providing optimal care for children during Ebola disease outbreaks. In this review, we outline current understanding of Ebola disease epidemiology, pathogenesis, management, and prevention, highlighting data pertinent to the care of children. IMPACT: In this review, we summarize recent advancements in our understanding of Ebola disease epidemiology, clinical presentation, and therapeutic and preventative strategies. We highlight recent data pertinent to the care of children and pregnant women and identify research gaps for this important emerging viral infection in children.

Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease

Health emergencies caused by epidemic-prone pathogens (EPPs) have increased exponentially in recent decades. Although vaccines have proven beneficial, they are unavailable for many pathogens. Furthermore, achieving timely and equitable access to vaccines against EPPs is not trivial. It requires decision-makers to capture numerous interrelated factors across temporal and spatial scales, with significant uncertainties, variability, delays, and feedback loops that give rise to dynamic and unexpected behavior. Therefore, despite progress in filling R&D gaps, the path to licensure and the long-term viability of vaccines against EPPs continues to be unclear. This paper presents a quantitative system dynamics modeling framework to evaluate the long-term sustainability of vaccine supply under different vaccination strategies. Data from both literature and 50 expert interviews are used to model the supply and demand of a prototypical Ebolavirus Zaire (EBOV) vaccine. Specifically, the case study evaluates dynamics associated with proactive vaccination ahead of an outbreak of similar magnitude as the 2018-2020 epidemic in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. The scenarios presented demonstrate how uncertainties (e.g., duration of vaccine-induced protection) and design criteria (e.g., priority geographies and groups, target coverage, frequency of boosters) lead to important tradeoffs across policy aims, public health outcomes, and feasibility (e.g., technical, operational, financial). With sufficient context and data, the framework provides a foundation to apply the model to a broad range of additional geographies and priority pathogens. Furthermore, the ability to identify leverage points for long-term preparedness offers directions for further research.

Natural History of Nonhuman Primates After Oral Exposure to Ebola Virus Variant Makona

BACKGROUND

The primary route of infection by Ebola virus (EBOV) is through contact of mucosal surfaces. Few studies have explored infection of nonhuman primates (NHPs) via the oral mucosa, which is a probable portal of natural infection in humans.

METHODS

To further characterize the pathogenesis of EBOV infection via the oral exposure route, we challenged cohorts of cynomolgus monkeys with low doses of EBOV variant Makona.

RESULTS

Infection with 100 or 50 PFU of EBOV Makona via the oral route resulted in 50% and 83% lethality, respectively. Animals that progressed to fatal disease exhibited lymphopenia, marked coagulopathy, high viral loads, and increased levels of serum markers of inflammation and hepatic/renal injury. Survival in these cohorts was associated with milder fluctuations in leukocyte populations, lack of coagulopathy, and reduced or absent serum markers of inflammation and/or hepatic/renal function. Surprisingly, 2 surviving animals from the 100- and 50-PFU cohorts developed transient low-level viremia in the absence of other clinical signs of disease. Conversely, all animals in the 10 PFU cohort remained disease free and survived to the study end point.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations highlight the susceptibility of NHPs, and by extension, likely humans, to relatively low doses of EBOV via the oral route.

The Multiple Origins of Ebola Disease Outbreaks

BACKGROUND

The origins of Ebola disease outbreaks remain enigmatic. Historically outbreaks have been attributed to spillover events from wildlife. However, recent data suggest that some outbreaks may originate from human-to-human transmission of prior outbreak strains instead of spillover. Clarifying the origins of Ebola disease outbreaks could improve detection and mitigation of future outbreaks.

METHODS

We reviewed the origins of all Ebola disease outbreaks from 1976 to 2022 to analyze the earliest cases and characteristics of each outbreak. The epidemiology and phylogenetic relationships of outbreak strains were used to further identify the likely source of each outbreak.

RESULTS

From 1976 to 2022 there were 35 Ebola disease outbreaks with 48 primary/index cases. While the majority of outbreaks were associated with wildlife spillover, resurgence of human-to-human transmission could account for roughly a quarter of outbreaks caused by Ebola virus. Larger outbreaks were more likely to lead to possible resurgence, and nosocomial transmission was associated with the majority of outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

While spillover from wildlife has been a source for many Ebola disease outbreaks, multiple outbreaks may have originated from flare-ups of prior outbreak strains. Improving access to diagnostics as well as identifying groups at risk for resurgence of ebolaviruses will be crucial to preventing future outbreaks.

Micro‒Global Positioning Systems for Identifying Nightly Opportunities for Marburg Virus Spillover to Humans by Egyptian Rousette Bats

Marburg virus disease, caused by Marburg and Ravn orthomarburgviruses, emerges sporadically in sub-Saharan Africa and is often fatal in humans. The natural reservoir is the Egyptian rousette bat (ERB), which sheds virus in saliva, urine, and feces. Frugivorous ERBs discard test-bitten and partially eaten fruit, potentially leaving infectious virus behind that could be consumed by other susceptible animals or humans. Historically, 8 of 17 known Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been linked to human encroachment on ERB habitats, but no linkage exists for the other 9 outbreaks, raising the question of how bats and humans might intersect, leading to virus spillover. We used micro‒global positioning systems to identify nightly ERB foraging locations. ERBs from a known Marburg virus‒infected population traveled long distances to feed in cultivated fruit trees near homes. Our results show that ERB foraging behavior represents a Marburg virus spillover risk to humans and plausibly explains the origins of some past outbreaks.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) as a form of human-wildlife conflict: Why and how nondomesticated species should be incorporated into AMR guidance

The challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) continues to receive significant global attention as common infections become increasingly resistant to the drugs used to treat them. Once an infectious microbe has developed a mechanism of resistance, it can cause longer, more damaging infections which are more costly, time-consuming, and sometimes impossible to treat. Such impacts occur across the health of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. Thus, AMR is considered a One Health issue. However, current narratives on AMR focus on humans, food-producing animals, crops, and their immediate environments. Very little attention is given to wildlife in terms of the impact of AMR on their health, nor their role in the evolution and spread of AMR. This article (1) discusses an absence of wildlife in current AMR guidance, (2) suggests how this absence of wildlife could limit understanding of, and action on, AMR, (3) proposes that considering AMR as a form of human-wildlife conflict could enable AMR guidance to better incorporate wildlife into action planning and create a truly One Health approach to tackle AMR.

Structurally Different Yet Functionally Similar: Aptamers Specific for the Ebola Virus Soluble Glycoprotein and GP1,2 and Their Application in Electrochemical Sensing

The Ebola virus glycoprotein (GP) gene templates several mRNAs that produce either the virion-associated transmembrane protein or one of two secreted glycoproteins. Soluble glycoprotein (sGP) is the predominant product. GP1 and sGP share an amino terminal sequence of 295 amino acids but differ in quaternary structure, with GP1 being a heterohexamer with GP2 and sGP a homodimer. Two structurally different DNA aptamers were selected against sGP that also bound GP1,2. These DNA aptamers were compared with a 2'FY-RNA aptamer for their interactions with the Ebola GP gene products. The three aptamers have almost identical binding isotherms for sGP and GP1,2 in solution and on the virion. They demonstrated high affinity and selectivity for sGP and GP1,2. Furthermore, one aptamer, used as a sensing element in an electrochemical format, detected GP1,2 on pseudotyped virions and sGP with high sensitivity in the presence of serum, including from an Ebola-virus-infected monkey. Our results suggest that the aptamers interact with sGP across the interface between the monomers, which is different from the sites on the protein bound by most antibodies. The remarkable similarity in functional features of three structurally distinct aptamers suggests that aptamers, like antibodies, have preferred binding sites on proteins.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

Zoonoses and global epidemics

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of the review is to summarize recent advances in understanding the origins, drivers and clinical context of zoonotic disease epidemics and pandemics. In addition, we aimed to highlight the role of clinicians in identifying sentinel cases of zoonotic disease outbreaks.

RECENT FINDINGS

The majority of emerging infectious disease events over recent decades, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have been caused by zoonotic viruses and bacteria. In particular, coronaviruses, haemorrhagic fever viruses, arboviruses and influenza A viruses have caused significant epidemics globally. There have been recent advances in understanding the origins and drivers of zoonotic epidemics, yet there are gaps in diagnostic capacity and clinical training about zoonoses.

SUMMARY

Identifying the origins of zoonotic pathogens, understanding factors influencing disease transmission and improving the diagnostic capacity of clinicians will be crucial to early detection and prevention of further epidemics of zoonoses.

Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.

Ebola virus disease is a highly pathogenic disease transmitted from wildlife to humans. It was first described in 1976 and its distribution remained restricted to Central Africa until 2014, when an outbreak in West Africa, causing more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, took place. Anthropogenic factors, such as bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption, and environmental and climatic factors, may promote the contact between humans and infected animals, such as bats, primates and duikers, increasing the risk of virus transmission to the human population. In this study, we used the spatial multicriteria evaluation framework to gather all available information on risk factors and animal species susceptible to infection, and produce maps of areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover in regions in Guinea, Congo and Gabon. The resulting maps highlighted high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover. Data from reported cases of Ebola virus transmission from wild animals to humans were used to validate the maps. The approach developed is capable of integrating a wide diversity of risk factors, and provides a flexible and simple tool for surveillance, which can be updated as more data and knowledge on risk factors become available.

Canine distemper in neotropical procyonids: Molecular evidence, humoral immune response and epidemiology

Canine Distemper Virus (CDV) can produce a fatal multisystem disease in carnivores and other mammals and is an important threat for wildlife conservation. However, integrative and comparative studies in wild carnivores are scarce and some areas of the world lack of genetic studies. We explore the dynamic of host-CDV in a procyonid community during an outbreak. This study reports for the first time an index case occurred in a common raccoon (Procyon lotor) and for which a complete CDV diagnosis was performed. The long-term epidemiological analysis in two sympatric populations of common raccoons and white-nosed coatis (Nasua narica) was achieved through seroneutralization, RT-PCR and direct immunofluorescence assays. Additionally, hematologic analyses were performed and phylogenetic reconstruction of CDV was done using molecular data from this study. Overall prevalence for white-nosed coatis was 19.6 % and for common raccoons was 25.3 % by seroneutralization, and 13.3 % and 17.3 % by RT-PCR. Antibodies titer average for white-nosed coatis was 1:512 and 1:156 for common raccoons. Significant difference in prevalence between white-nosed coatis and common raccoons was detected during one season (summer 2013). White-nosed coatis showed differences in erythrocytes and monocytes counts between positives and negative animals. A 100 % similarity was found between CDV of white-nosed coati and CDV of common raccoon and is a new CDV sequence not previously described; this sequence is close to Asian and European lineage. An endemic state of distemper in both species was observed but showed different dynamics over time per host species. Differences in cellular and humoral responses were also detected between procyonids. The evidence found here may have serious implications for CDV understanding in wild carnivores, it reveals clear differences in the response over time to the same CDV strain, in two close related carnivore species.

Bats as putative Zaire ebolavirus reservoir hosts and their habitat suitability in Africa

The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease.

Ecological processes underlying the emergence of novel enzootic cycles: Arboviruses in the neotropics as a case study

Pathogens originating from wildlife (zoonoses) pose a significant public health burden, comprising the majority of emerging infectious diseases. Efforts to control and prevent zoonotic disease have traditionally focused on animal-to-human transmission, or "spillover." However, in the modern era, increasing international mobility and commerce facilitate the spread of infected humans, nonhuman animals (hereafter animals), and their products worldwide, thereby increasing the risk that zoonoses will be introduced to new geographic areas. Imported zoonoses can potentially "spill back" to infect local wildlife-a danger magnified by urbanization and other anthropogenic pressures that increase contacts between human and wildlife populations. In this way, humans can function as vectors, dispersing zoonoses from their ancestral enzootic systems to establish reservoirs elsewhere in novel animal host populations. Once established, these enzootic cycles are largely unassailable by standard control measures and have the potential to feed human epidemics. Understanding when and why translocated zoonoses establish novel enzootic cycles requires disentangling ecologically complex and stochastic interactions between the zoonosis, the human population, and the natural ecosystem. In this Review, we address this challenge by delineating potential ecological mechanisms affecting each stage of enzootic establishment-wildlife exposure, enzootic infection, and persistence-applying existing ecological concepts from epidemiology, invasion biology, and population ecology. We ground our discussion in the neotropics, where four arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of zoonotic origin-yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses-have separately been introduced into the human population. This paper is a step towards developing a framework for predicting and preventing novel enzootic cycles in the face of zoonotic translocations.

Pathogenesis of Uveitis in Ebola Virus Disease Survivors: Evolving Understanding from Outbreaks to Animal Models

Ebola virus disease (EVD) and emerging infectious disease threats continue to threaten life, prosperity and global health security. To properly counteract EVD, an improved understanding of the long-term impact of recent EVD outbreaks in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo are needed. In the wake of recent outbreaks, numerous health sequelae were identified in EVD survivors. These findings include joint pains, headaches, myalgias, and uveitis, a vision-threatening inflammatory condition of the eye. Retrospective and more recent prospective studies of EVD survivors from West Africa have demonstrated that uveitis may occur in 13–34% of patients with an increase in prevalence from baseline to 12-month follow-up. The clinical spectrum of disease ranges from mild, anterior uveitis to severe, sight-threatening panuveitis. Untreated inflammation may ultimately lead to secondary complications of cataract and posterior synechiae, with resultant vision impairment. The identification of Ebola virus persistence in immune privileged organs, such as the eye, with subsequent tissue inflammation and edema may lead to vision loss. Non-human primate models of EVD have demonstrated tissue localization to the eye including macrophage reservoirs within the vitreous matter. Moreover, in vitro models of Ebola virus have shown permissiveness in retinal pigment epithelial cells, potentially contributing to viral persistence. Broad perspectives from epidemiologic studies of the outbreak, animal modeling, and immunologic studies of EVD survivors have demonstrated the spectrum of the eye disease, tissue specificity of Ebola virus infection, and antigen-specific immunologic response. Further studies in these areas will elucidate the mechanisms of this highly prevalent disease with the potential for improved therapeutics for Ebola virus in immune-privileged sites.

Three-gene PCR and high-resolution melting analysis for differentiating vertebrate species mitochondrial DNA for biodiversity research and complementing forensic surveillance

Reliable molecular identification of vertebrate species from morphologically unidentifiable tissue is critical for the prosecution of illegally-traded wildlife products, conservation-based biodiversity research, and identification of blood-meal hosts of hematophagous invertebrates. However, forensic identification of vertebrate tissue relies on sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) 'barcode' gene, which remains costly for purposes of screening large numbers of unknown samples during routine surveillance. Here, we adapted a rapid, low-cost approach to differentiate 10 domestic and 24 wildlife species that are common in the East African illegal wildlife products trade based on their unique high-resolution melting profiles from COI, cytochrome b, and 16S ribosomal RNA gene PCR products. Using the approach, we identified (i) giraffe among covertly sampled meat from Kenyan butcheries, and (ii) forest elephant mitochondrial sequences among savannah elephant reference samples. This approach is being adopted for high-throughput pre-screening of potential bushmeat samples in East African forensic science pipelines.

Ebola virus disease

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe and frequently lethal disease caused by Ebola virus (EBOV). EVD outbreaks typically start from a single case of probable zoonotic transmission, followed by human-to-human transmission via direct contact or contact with infected bodily fluids or contaminated fomites. EVD has a high case-fatality rate; it is characterized by fever, gastrointestinal signs and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Diagnosis requires a combination of case definition and laboratory tests, typically real-time reverse transcription PCR to detect viral RNA or rapid diagnostic tests based on immunoassays to detect EBOV antigens. Recent advances in medical countermeasure research resulted in the recent approval of an EBOV-targeted vaccine by European and US regulatory agencies. The results of a randomized clinical trial of investigational therapeutics for EVD demonstrated survival benefits from two monoclonal antibody products targeting the EBOV membrane glycoprotein. New observations emerging from the unprecedented 2013-2016 Western African EVD outbreak (the largest in history) and the ongoing EVD outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have substantially improved the understanding of EVD and viral persistence in survivors of EVD, resulting in new strategies toward prevention of infection and optimization of clinical management, acute illness outcomes and attendance to the clinical care needs of patients.

Delayed recognition of Ebola virus disease is associated with longer and larger outbreaks

The average time required to detect an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak following spillover of Ebola virus (EBOV) to a primary human case has remained essentially unchanged for over 40 years, with some of the longest delays in detection occurring in recent decades. In this review, our aim was to examine the relationship between delays in detection of EVD and the duration and size of outbreaks, and we report that longer delays are associated with longer and larger EVD outbreaks. Historically, EVD outbreaks have typically been comprised of less than 100 cases (median = 60) and have lasted less than 4 months (median = 118 days). The ongoing outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo, together with the 2013–2016 west Africa outbreak, are stark outliers amidst these trends and had two of the longest delays in detection on record. While significant progress has been made in the development of EVD countermeasures, implementation during EVD outbreaks is problematic. Thus, EVD surveillance must be improved by the broad deployment of modern diagnostic tools, as prompt recognition of EVD has the potential to stem early transmission and ultimately limit the duration and size of outbreaks.

Possible importance of carcasses for ebolavirus persistence in the ecosystem

Some outbreaks caused by ebolaviruses have been associated with wildlife mortalities in the past. Here, we discuss the possible roles played by animal carcasses during an ebolavirus outbreak. Corpses of wild animals that died due to ebolavirus infection or other reasons might be eaten by vertebrates and invertebrates, spreading live ebolaviruses to other animals, including humans. To prevent and contain an ebolavirus outbreak, not only potential reservoirs but also all organisms with a high likelihood of virus exposure need to be investigated.

Ebola virus disease: An emerging and re-emerging viral threat

The genus Ebolavirus from the family Filoviridae is composed of five species including Sudan ebolavirus, Reston ebolavirus, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, Taï Forest ebolavirus, and Ebola virus (previously known as Zaire ebolavirus). These viruses have a large non-segmented, negative-strand RNA of approximately 19 kb that encodes for glycoproteins (i.e., GP, sGP, ssGP), nucleoproteins, virion proteins (i.e., VP 24, 30,40) and an RNA dependent RNA polymerase. These viruses have become a global health concern because of mortality, their rapid dissemination, new outbreaks in West-Africa, and the emergence of a new condition known as "Post-Ebola virus disease syndrome" that resembles inflammatory and autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondyloarthritis with uveitis. However, there are many gaps in the understanding of the mechanisms that may induce the development of such autoimmune-like syndromes. Some of these mechanisms may include a high formation of neutrophil extracellular traps, an uncontrolled "cytokine storm", and the possible formation of auto-antibodies. The likely appearance of autoimmune phenomena in Ebola survivors suppose a new challenge in the management and control of this disease and opens a new field of research in a special subgroup of patients. Herein, the molecular biology, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, and treatment of Ebola virus disease are reviewed and some strategies for control of disease are discussed.

Lek-associated movement of a putative Ebolavirus reservoir, the hammer-headed fruit bat (Hypsignathus monstrosus), in northern Republic of Congo

The biology and ecology of Africa's largest fruit bat remains largely understudied and enigmatic despite at least two highly unusual attributes. The acoustic lek mating behavior of the hammer-headed bat (Hypsignathus monstrosus) in the Congo basin was first described in the 1970s. More recently molecular testing implicated this species and other African bats as potential reservoir hosts for Ebola virus and it was one of only two fruit bat species epidemiologically linked to the 2008 Luebo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ebola outbreak. Here we share findings from the first pilot study of hammer-headed bat movement using GPS tracking and accelerometry units and a small preceding radio-tracking trial at an apparent lekking site. The radio-tracking revealed adult males had high rates of nightly visitation to the site compared to females (only one visit) and that two of six females day-roosted ~100 m west of Libonga, the nearest village that is ~1.6 km southwest. Four months later, in mid-April 2018, five individual bats, comprised of four males and one female, were tracked from two to 306 days, collecting from 67 to 1022 GPS locations. As measured by mean distance to the site and proportion of nightly GPS locations within 1 km of the site (percent visitation), the males were much more closely associated with the site (mean distance 1.4 km; 51% visitation), than the female (mean 5.5 km; 2.2% visitation). Despite the small sample size, our tracking evidence supports our original characterization of the site as a lek, and the lek itself is much more central to male than female movement. Moreover, our pilot demonstrates the technical feasibility of executing future studies on hammer-headed bats that will help fill problematic knowledge gaps about zoonotic spillover risks and the conservation needs of fruit bats across the continent.

Cross-species pathogen spillover across ecosystem boundaries: mechanisms and theory

Pathogen spillover between different host species is the trigger for many infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events, and ecosystem boundary areas have been suggested as spatial hotspots of spillover. This hypothesis is largely based on suspected higher rates of zoonotic disease spillover and emergence in fragmented landscapes and other areas where humans live in close vicinity to wildlife. For example, Ebola virus outbreaks have been linked to contacts between humans and infected wildlife at the rural-forest border, and spillover of yellow fever via mosquito vectors happens at the interface between forest and human settlements. Because spillover involves complex interactions between multiple species and is difficult to observe directly, empirical studies are scarce, particularly those that quantify underlying mechanisms. In this review, we identify and explore potential ecological mechanisms affecting spillover of pathogens (and parasites in general) at ecosystem boundaries. We borrow the concept of 'permeability' from animal movement ecology as a measure of the likelihood that hosts and parasites are present in an ecosystem boundary region. We then discuss how different mechanisms operating at the levels of organisms and ecosystems might affect permeability and spillover. This review is a step towards developing a general theory of cross-species parasite spillover across ecosystem boundaries with the eventual aim of improving predictions of spillover risk in heterogeneous landscapes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Confronting models with data: the challenges of estimating disease spillover

For pathogens known to transmit across host species, strategic investment in disease control requires knowledge about where and when spillover transmission is likely. One approach to estimating spillover is to directly correlate observed spillover events with covariates. An alternative is to mechanistically combine information on host density, distribution and pathogen prevalence to predict where and when spillover events are expected to occur. We use several case studies at the wildlife-livestock disease interface to highlight the challenges, and potential solutions, to estimating spatio-temporal variation in spillover risk. Datasets on multiple host species often do not align in space, time or resolution, and may have no estimates of observation error. Linking these datasets requires they be related to a common spatial and temporal resolution and appropriately propagating errors in predictions can be difficult. Hierarchical models are one potential solution, but for fine-resolution predictions at broad spatial scales, many models become computationally challenging. Despite these limitations, the confrontation of mechanistic predictions with observed events is an important avenue for developing a better understanding of pathogen spillover. Systems where data have been collected at all levels in the spillover process are rare, or non-existent, and require investment and sustained effort across disciplines. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Long-term wildlife mortality surveillance in northern Congo: a model for the detection of Ebola virus disease epizootics

Ebolavirus (EBOV) has caused disease outbreaks taking thousands of lives, costing billions of dollars in control efforts and threatening great ape populations. EBOV ecology is not fully understood but infected wildlife and consumption of animal carcasses have been linked to human outbreaks, especially in the Congo Basin. Partnering with the Congolese Ministry of Health, we conducted wildlife mortality surveillance and educational outreach in the northern Republic of Congo (RoC). Designed for EBOV detection and to alert public health authorities, we established a low-cost wildlife mortality reporting network covering 50 000 km². Simultaneously, we delivered educational outreach promoting behavioural change to over 6600 people in rural northern RoC. We achieved specimen collection by training project staff on a safe sampling protocol and equipping geographically distributed bases with sampling kits. We established in-country diagnostics for EBOV testing, reducing diagnostic turnaround time to 3 days and demonstrated the absence of EBOV in 58 carcasses. Central Africa remains a high-risk EBOV region, but RoC, home to the largest remaining populations of great apes, has not had an epidemic since 2005. This effort continues to function as an untested early warning system in RoC, where people and great apes have died from past Ebola virus disease outbreaks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Estimating undetected Ebola spillovers

The preparedness of health systems to detect, treat, and prevent onward transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) is central to mitigating future outbreaks. Early detection of outbreaks is critical to timely response, but estimating detection rates is difficult because unreported spillover events and outbreaks do not generate data. Using three independent datasets available on the distributions of secondary infections during EVD outbreaks across West Africa, in a single district (Western Area) of Sierra Leone, and in the city of Conakry, Guinea, we simulated realistic outbreak size distributions and compared them to reported outbreak sizes. These three empirical distributions lead to estimates for the proportion of detected spillover events and small outbreaks of 26% (range 8-40%, based on the full outbreak data), 48% (range 39-62%, based on the Sierra Leone data), and 17% (range 11-24%, based on the Guinea data). We conclude that at least half of all spillover events have failed to be reported since EVD was first recognized. We also estimate the probability of detecting outbreaks of different sizes, which is likely less than 10% for single-case spillover events. Comparing models of the observation process also suggests the probability of detecting an outbreak is not simply the cumulative probability of independently detecting any one individual. Rather, we find that any individual's probability of detection is highly dependent upon the size of the cluster of cases. These findings highlight the importance of primary health care and local case management to detect and contain undetected early stage outbreaks at source.

Early transmission and case fatality of Ebola virus at the index site of the 2013-16 west African Ebola outbreak: a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey

BACKGROUND

To date, epidemiological studies at the index site of the 2013-16 west African Ebola outbreak in Meliandou, Guinea, have been restricted in their scope. We aimed to determine the occurrence of previously undocumented Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and infections, and to reconstruct transmission events.

METHODS

This cross-sectional seroprevalence survey of the adult population of Meliandou used a highly specific oral fluid test and detailed interviews of all households in the village and key informants. Each household was interviewed, with all members prompted to describe the events of the outbreak, any illness within the household, and possible contact with suspected cases. Information for deceased individuals was provided by relatives living in the same household. Symptoms were based on Ebola virus Makona variant EVD case definitions (focusing on fever, vomiting, and diarrhoea). For antibody testing, we used an Ebola virus glycoprotein IgG capture enzyme immunoassay developed from a previously validated assay. A maximum exposure level was assigned to every participant using a predetermined scale. We used a generalised linear model (logit function) to estimate odds ratios for the association of sociodemographic variables and exposure level with Ebola virus infection. We adjusted estimates for age and maximum exposure, as appropriate.

FINDINGS

Between June 22, and July 9, 2017, we enrolled 237 participants from 27 households in Meliandou. Two households refused to participate and one was absent. All adults in participating households who were present for the interview provided an oral fluid swab for testing, of which 224 were suitable for analysis. In addition to the 11 EVD deaths described previously, on the basis of clinical description and oral fluid testing, we found two probable EVD deaths and eight previously unrecognised anti-Ebola virus IgG-positive survivors, including one who had mild symptoms and one who was asymptomatic, resulting in a case fatality of 55·6% (95% CI 30·8-78·5) for adults. Health-care work (adjusted odds ratio 6·64, 1·54-28·56; p=0·001) and level of exposure (odds ratio adjusted for linear trend across five levels 2·79, 1·59-4·883; p<0·0001) were independent risk factors for infection.

INTERPRETATION

Ebola virus infection was more widespread in this spillover population than previously recognised (21 vs 11 cases). We show the first serological evidence of survivors in this population (eight anti-Ebola virus IgG seropositive) and report a case fatality lower than previously reported (55·6% vs 100% in adults). These data show the high community coverage achievable by using a non-invasive test and, by accurately documenting the beginnings of the west African Ebola virus outbreak, reveal important insight into transmission dynamics and risk factors that underpin Ebola virus spillover events.

FUNDING

US Food and Drug Administration, Wellcome Trust, and German Research Council.

Monkeypox re-emergence in Africa: a call to expand the concept and practice of One Health

INTRODUCTION

Monkeypox is a re-emerging viral zoonosis that occurs naturally in heavily forested regions of West and Central Africa. Inter-human transmission of monkeypox virus, although limited, drives outbreaks, particularly in household and health-care settings. But the available evidence suggests that without repeated zoonotic introductions, human infections would eventually cease to occur. Therefore, interrupting virus transmission from animals to humans is key to combating this disease. Areas covered: Herein we review laboratory and field studies examining the susceptibility of various animal taxa to monkeypox virus infection, and note the competence of various species to serve as reservoirs or transmission hosts. In addition, we discuss early socio-ecologic theories of monkeypox virus transmission in rural settings and review current modes of ecologic investigation - including ecologic niche modeling, and ecologic sampling - in light of their potential to identify specific animal species and features of the environment that are associated with heightened risk for human disease. Expert opinion: The role of disease ecology and scientific research in ongoing disease prevention efforts should be reinforced, particularly for wildlife-associated zoonoses such as monkeypox. Such efforts alongside those aimed at nurturing 'One Health' collaborations may ultimately hold the greatest promise for reducing human infections with this pathogen.

Ebola Virus Maintenance: If Not (Only) Bats, What Else?

The maintenance mechanisms of ebolaviruses in African forest ecosystems are still unknown, but indirect evidences point at the involvement of some bat species. Despite intense research, the main bat-maintenance hypothesis has not been confirmed yet. The alternative hypotheses of a non-bat maintenance host or a maintenance community including, or not, several bat and other species, deserves more investigation. However, African forest ecosystems host a large biodiversity and abound in potential maintenance hosts. How does one puzzle out? Since recent studies have revealed that several bat species have been exposed to ebolaviruses, the common denominator to these hypotheses is that within the epidemiological cycle, some bats species must be exposed to the viruses and infected by these potential alternative hosts. Under this constraint, and given the peculiar ecology of bats (roosting behaviour, habitat utilisation, and flight mode), we review the hosts and transmission pathways that can lead to bat exposure and infection to ebolaviruses. In contrast to the capacity of bats to transmit ebolaviruses and other pathogens to many hosts, our results indicate that only a limited number of hosts and pathways can lead to the transmission of ebolaviruses to bats, and that the alternative maintenance host, if it exists, must be amongst them. A list of these pathways is provided, along with protocols to prioritise and investigate these alternative hypotheses. In conclusion, taking into account the ecology of bats and their known involvement in ebolaviruses ecology drastically reduces the list of potential alternative maintenance hosts for ebolaviruses. Understanding the natural history of ebolaviruses is a health priority, and investigating these alternative hypotheses could complete the current effort focused on the role of bats.

Advances in Designing and Developing Vaccines, Drugs, and Therapies to Counter Ebola Virus

Ebola virus (EBOV), a member of the family Filoviridae, is responsible for causing Ebola virus disease (EVD) (formerly named Ebola hemorrhagic fever). This is a severe, often fatal illness with mortality rates varying from 50 to 90% in humans. Although the virus and associated disease has been recognized since 1976, it was only when the recent outbreak of EBOV in 2014-2016 highlighted the danger and global impact of this virus, necessitating the need for coming up with the effective vaccines and drugs to counter its pandemic threat. Albeit no commercial vaccine is available so far against EBOV, a few vaccine candidates are under evaluation and clinical trials to assess their prophylactic efficacy. These include recombinant viral vector (recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vector, chimpanzee adenovirus type 3-vector, and modified vaccinia Ankara virus), Ebola virus-like particles, virus-like replicon particles, DNA, and plant-based vaccines. Due to improvement in the field of genomics and proteomics, epitope-targeted vaccines have gained top priority. Correspondingly, several therapies have also been developed, including immunoglobulins against specific viral structures small cell-penetrating antibody fragments that target intracellular EBOV proteins. Small interfering RNAs and oligomer-mediated inhibition have also been verified for EVD treatment. Other treatment options include viral entry inhibitors, transfusion of convalescent blood/serum, neutralizing antibodies, and gene expression inhibitors. Repurposed drugs, which have proven safety profiles, can be adapted after high-throughput screening for efficacy and potency for EVD treatment. Herbal and other natural products are also being explored for EVD treatment. Further studies to better understand the pathogenesis and antigenic structures of the virus can help in developing an effective vaccine and identifying appropriate antiviral targets. This review presents the recent advances in designing and developing vaccines, drugs, and therapies to counter the EBOV threat.

A Predictive Spatial Distribution Framework for Filovirus-Infected Bats

Tools with predictive capabilities in regards of filovirus outbreaks are mainly anthropocentric and have disregarded the ecological dimension of the problem. Here we contribute to shift the current paradigm by studying the dynamics of the putative main zoonotic niche of filoviruses, bats, and its link to environmental drivers. We propose a framework that combines data analysis, modeling, and the evaluation of sources of variability. We implement a regression analysis using factual data to correlate environmental parameters and the presence of bats to find the distribution of resources. The information inferred by the regression is fed into a compartmental model that describes the infection state. We also account for the lack of knowledge of some parameters using a sampling/averaging technique. As a result we estimate the spatio-temporal densities of bats. Importantly, we show that our approach is able to predict where and when an outbreak is likely to appear when tested against recent epidemic data in the context of Ebola. Our framework highlights the importance of considering the feedback between the ecology and the environment in zoonotic models and sheds light on the mechanisms to propagate filoviruses geographically. We expect that our methodology can help to design prevention policies and be used as a predictive tool in the context of zoonotic diseases associated to filoviruses.

Herd Immunity to Ebolaviruses Is Not a Realistic Target for Current Vaccination Strategies

The recent West African Ebola virus pandemic, which affected >28,000 individuals increased interest in anti-Ebolavirus vaccination programs. Here, we systematically analyzed the requirements for a prophylactic vaccination program based on the basic reproductive number (R₀, i.e., the number of secondary cases that result from an individual infection). Published R₀ values were determined by systematic literature research and ranged from 0.37 to 20. R₀s ≥ 4 realistically reflected the critical early outbreak phases and superspreading events. Based on the R₀, the herd immunity threshold (I_c) was calculated using the equation I_c = 1 - (1/R₀). The critical vaccination coverage (V_c) needed to provide herd immunity was determined by including the vaccine effectiveness (E) using the equation V_c = I_c/E. At an R₀ of 4, the I_c is 75% and at an E of 90%, more than 80% of a population need to be vaccinated to establish herd immunity. Such vaccination rates are currently unrealistic because of resistance against vaccinations, financial/logistical challenges, and a lack of vaccines that provide long-term protection against all human-pathogenic Ebolaviruses. Hence, outbreak management will for the foreseeable future depend on surveillance and case isolation. Clinical vaccine candidates are only available for Ebola viruses. Their use will need to be focused on health-care workers, potentially in combination with ring vaccination approaches.

Role of monkeys in the sylvatic cycle of chikungunya virus in Senegal

Arboviruses spillover into humans either as a one-step jump from a reservoir host species into humans or as a two-step jump from the reservoir to an amplification host species and thence to humans. Little is known about arbovirus transmission dynamics in reservoir and amplification hosts. Here we elucidate the role of monkeys in the sylvatic, enzootic cycle of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the region around Kédougou, Senegal. Over 3 years, 737 monkeys were captured, aged using anthropometry and dentition, and tested for exposure to CHIKV by detection of neutralizing antibodies. Infant monkeys were positive for CHIKV even when the virus was not detected in a concurrent survey of mosquitoes and when population immunity was too high for monkeys alone to support continuous transmission. We conclude that monkeys in this region serve as amplification hosts of CHIKV. Additional efforts are needed to identify other hosts capable of supporting continuous circulation.

Translating Predictions of Zoonotic Viruses for Policymakers

Recent outbreaks of Ebola virus disease and Zika virus disease highlight the need for disseminating accurate predictions of emerging zoonotic viruses to national governments for disease surveillance and response. Although there are published maps for many emerging zoonotic viruses, it is unknown if there is agreement among different models or if they are concordant with national expert opinion. Therefore, we reviewed existing predictions for five high priority emerging zoonotic viruses with national experts in Cameroon to investigate these issues and determine how to make predictions more useful for national policymakers. Predictive maps relied primarily on environmental parameters and species distribution models. Rift Valley fever virus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus predictions differed from national expert opinion, potentially because of local livestock movements. Our findings reveal that involving national experts could elicit additional data to improve predictions of emerging pathogens as well as help repackage predictions for policymakers.

Ebola virus - epidemiology, diagnosis, and control: threat to humans, lessons learnt, and preparedness plans - an update on its 40 year's journey

Ebola virus (EBOV) is an extremely contagious pathogen and causes lethal hemorrhagic fever disease in man and animals. The recently occurred Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in the West African countries have categorized it as an international health concern. For the virus maintenance and transmission, the non-human primates and reservoir hosts like fruit bats have played a vital role. For curbing the disease timely, we need effective therapeutics/prophylactics, however, in the absence of any approved vaccine, timely diagnosis and monitoring of EBOV remains of utmost importance. The technologically advanced vaccines like a viral-vectored vaccine, DNA vaccine and virus-like particles are underway for testing against EBOV. In the absence of any effective control measure, the adaptation of high standards of biosecurity measures, strict sanitary and hygienic practices, strengthening of surveillance and monitoring systems, imposing appropriate quarantine checks and vigilance on trade, transport, and movement of visitors from EVD endemic countries remains the answer of choice for tackling the EBOV spread. Herein, we converse with the current scenario of EBOV giving due emphasis on animal and veterinary perspectives along with advances in diagnosis and control strategies to be adopted, lessons learned from the recent outbreaks and the global preparedness plans. To retrieve the evolutionary information, we have analyzed a total of 56 genome sequences of various EBOV species submitted between 1976 and 2016 in public databases.

Detection of Emerging Zoonotic Pathogens: An Integrated One Health Approach

The emergence of novel zoonotic pathogens is one of the greatest challenges to global health security. The advent of increasingly sophisticated diagnostics tools has revolutionized our capacity to detect and respond to these health threats more rapidly than ever before. Yet, no matter how sophisticated these tools become, the initial identification of emerging infectious diseases begins at the local community level. It is here that the initial human or animal case resides, and it is here that early pathogen detection would have maximum benefit. Unfortunately, many areas at highest risk of zoonotic disease emergence lack sufficient infrastructure capacity to support robust laboratory diagnostic systems. Multiple factors are essential for pathogen detection networks, including an understanding of the complex sociological and ecological factors influencing disease transmission risk, community engagement, surveillance along high-risk human-animal interfaces, and a skilled laboratory workforce. Here we discuss factors relevant to the emerging disease paradigm, recent technical advances in diagnostic methods, and strategies for comprehensive and sustainable approaches to rapid zoonotic disease detection.

The socio-economic drivers of bushmeat consumption during the West African Ebola crisis

Bushmeat represents an important source of animal protein for humans in tropical Africa. Unsustainable bushmeat hunting is a major threat to wildlife and its consumption is associated with an increased risk of acquiring zoonotic diseases, such as Ebola virus disease (EVD). During the recent EVD outbreak in West Africa, it is likely that human dietary behavior and local attitudes toward bushmeat consumption changed in response to the crisis, and that the rate of change depended on prevailing socio-economic conditions, including wealth and education. In this study, we therefore investigated the effects of income, education, and literacy on changes in bushmeat consumption during the crisis, as well as complementary changes in daily meal frequency, food diversity and bushmeat preference. More specifically, we tested whether wealthier households with more educated household heads decreased their consumption of bushmeat during the EVD crisis, and whether their daily meal frequency and food diversity remained constant. We used Generalized Linear Mixed Models to analyze interview data from two nationwide household surveys across Liberia. We found an overall decrease in bushmeat consumption during the crisis across all income levels. However, the rate of bushmeat consumption in high-income households decreased less than in low-income households. Daily meal frequency decreased during the crisis, and the diversity of food items and preferences for bushmeat species remained constant. Our multidisciplinary approach to study the impact of EVD can be applied to assess how other disasters affect social-ecological systems and improve our understanding and the management of future crises.

The consumption of wild animal meat, commonly known as bushmeat, is widespread throughout tropical regions. Bushmeat provides an essential source of protein and income for human livelihoods. However, its consumption is linked to the transmission of zoonotic diseases, such as Ebola, and its over-harvest is a major threat to many wildlife species. The bushmeat trade therefore encompasses a broad range of socio-economic and ecological issues. As such, we think it is highly important to use an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the drivers of bushmeat consumption, to improve our understanding and management of future crises. Our analysis of household interview data collected during two surveys across Liberia shows that there was an overall decrease in bushmeat consumption during the recent Ebola crisis. However, the consumption of bushmeat in wealthier households decreased less than in poorer households. In addition, we found that daily meal frequency decreased during the crisis, and the diversity of food items and preferences for bushmeat species remained constant.