Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density-impact curve

Spatial prioritization for widespread invasive species control: Trade-offs between current impact and future spread

Spatially explicit prioritization of invasive species control is a complex issue, requiring consideration of trade-offs between immediate and future benefits. This study aimed to prioritize management efforts to account for current and future threats from widespread invasions and examine the strength of the trade-off between these different management goals. As a case study, we identified spatially explicit management priorities for the widespread invasion of introduced willow into riparian and wetland habitats across a 102,145-km2 region in eastern Australia. In addition to targeting places where willow threatens biodiversity now, a second set of management goals was to limit reinfestation and further spread that could occur via two different mechanisms (downstream and by wind). A model of likely willow distribution across the region was combined with spatial data for biodiversity (native vegetation, threatened species and communities), ecological conditions, management costs, and two potential dispersal layers. We used systematic conservation planning software (Zonation) to prioritize where willow management should be focussed across more than 100,000 catchments for a range of different scenarios that reflected different weights between management goals. For willow invasion, we found that we could prioritize willow management to reduce the future threat of dispersal downstream with little reduction in the protection of biodiversity. However, accounting for future threats from wind dispersal resulted in a stronger trade-off with protection of threatened biodiversity. The strongest trade-off was observed when both dispersal mechanisms were considered together. This study shows that considering current and future goals together offers the potential to substantially improve conservation outcomes for invasive species management. Our approach also informs land managers about the relative trade-offs among different management goals under different control scenarios, helping to make management decisions more transparent. This approach can be used for other widespread invasive species to help improve invasive species management decisions.

Contemporary perspectives on the ecological impacts of invasive freshwater fishes

Introductions of non-native freshwater fish continue to increase globally, although only a small proportion of these introductions will result in an invasion. These invasive populations can cause ecological impacts in the receiving ecosystem through processes including increased competition and predation pressure, genetic introgression and the transmission of non-native pathogens. Definitions of ecological impact emphasize that shifts in the strength of these processes are insufficient for characterizing impact alone and, instead, must be associated with a quantifiable decline of biological and/or genetic diversity and lead to a measurable loss of diversity or change in ecosystem functioning. Assessments of ecological impact should thus consider the multiple processes and effects that potentially occur from invasive fish populations where, for example, impacts of invasive common carp Cyprinus carpio populations are through a combination of bottom-up and top-down processes that, in entirety, cause shifts in lake stable states and decreased species richness and/or abundances in the biotic communities. Such far-reaching ecological impacts also align to contemporary definitions of ecosystem collapse, given they involve substantial and persistent declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions that cannot be recovered unaided. Thus, while not all introduced freshwater fishes will become invasive, those species that do develop invasive populations can cause substantial ecological impacts, where some of the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning might be sufficiently harmful to be considered as contributing to ecosystem collapse.

Sigmoidal curves reflect impacts and dynamics of aquatic invasive species

Identifying general patterns and trends underlying the impacts and dynamics of biological invasions has proven elusive for scientists. Recently, the impact curve was proposed as a means to predict temporal impacts of invasive alien species, characterised by a sigmoidal growth pattern with an initial exponential increase, followed by a subsequent rate of decline and approaching a saturation level in the long-term where impact is maximised. While the impact curve has been empirically demonstrated with monitoring data of a single invasive alien species (the New Zealand mud snail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum), broadscale applicability remains to be tested for other taxa. Here, we examined whether the impact curve can adequately describe the invasion dynamics of 13 other aquatic species (within Amphipoda, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Hirudinea, Isopoda, Mysida, and Platyhelminthes) at the European level, employing multi-decadal time series of macroinvertebrate cumulative abundances from regular benthic monitoring efforts. For all except one tested species (the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus), the sigmoidal impact curve was strongly supported (R² > 0.95) on a sufficiently long time-scale. For D. villosus, the impact had not yet reached saturation, likely reflecting the ongoing European invasion. The impact curve facilitated estimation of introduction years and lag phases, as well as parameterisation of growth rates and carrying capacities, providing strong support for the boom-bust dynamics typically observed in several invader populations. These findings suggest that impact can grow rapidly before saturating at a high level, with timely monitoring often lacking for the detection of invasive alien species post-introduction. We further confirm the applicability of the impact curve to determine trends in invasion stages, population dynamics, and impacts of pertinent invaders, ultimately helping inform the timing of management interventions. We hence call for improved monitoring and reporting of invasive alien species over broad spatio-temporal scales to permit further testing of large-scale impact consistencies across various habitat types.

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Linear scaling – negative effects of invasive Spiraea tomentosa (Rosaceae) on wetland plants and pollinator communities

Invasive plants directly and indirectly disrupt the ecosystem functioning, of which indirect effects, for example, through trophic cascades, are particularly difficult to predict. It is frequently assumed that the impact of an invading species on the ecosystem is proportional (linearly related) to its density or abundance in a habitat, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We hypothesised that abundance and richness of plants and potentially pollinators of wet meadows change as a result of invasion of steeplebush Spiraea tomentosa and that these changes are proportional to the density of the shrub. We selected 27 sites amongst wet meadows habitats invaded by S. tomentosa with coverage ranging from 0% to 100% and examined the diversity of plants, as well as the abundance and diversity of flower visitors (bees, butterflies with moths and flies). Our results showed that the richness of plants, as well as the richness and number of individuals of flower visitors, decrease significantly and linearly with an increase of the S. tomentosa cover. This finding supports the hypothesis that the impact of an invasive species can be proportional to their population density, especially if this species is limiting the available resources without supplying others. Our study is the first to show such an unequivocal negative, linear effect of an invasive shrub on the abundance and richness of potential pollinators. It proves that the negative impact of S. tomentosa on the wetland ecosystem appears even with a minor coverage of the invader, which should be taken into account when planning activities aimed at controlling the population of this transformer species. The simultaneously detected linear dependence allows us to assume that the benefits of controlling secondary populations of the shrub can be proportional to the incurred effort.

Predicting the impact of invasive trees from different measures of abundance

Biological invasions produce negative impacts worldwide, causing massive economic costs and ecological impacts. Knowing the relationship between invasive species abundance and the magnitude of their impacts (abundance-impact curves) is critical to designing prevention and management strategies that effectively tackle these impacts. However, different measures of abundance may produce different abundance-impact curves. Woody plants are among the most transformative invaders, especially in grassland ecosystems because of the introduction of hitherto absent life forms. In this study, our first goal was to assess the impact of a woody invader, Pinus contorta (hereafter pine), on native grassland productivity and livestock grazing in Patagonia (Argentina), building abundance-impact curves. Our second goal, was to compare different measure of pine abundance (density, basal area and canopy cover) as predictors of pine's impact on grassland productivity. Our third goal, was to compare abundance-impact curves among the mentioned measures of pine abundance and among different measures of impact: total grassland productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate (the number of sheep that the grassland can sustainably support). Pine canopy cover, closely followed by basal area, was the measure of abundance that best explained the impact on grassland productivity, but the shape of abundance impact curves differed between measures of abundance. While increases in pine density and basal area always reduced grassland productivity, pine canopy cover below 30% slightly increased grassland productivity and higher values caused an exponential decline. This increase in grassland productivity with low levels of pine canopy cover could be explained by the amelioration of stressful abiotic conditions for grassland species. Different measures of impact, namely total productivity, palatable productivity and sheep stocking rate, drew very similar results. Our abundance-impact curves are key to guide the management of invasive pines because a proper assessment of how many invasive individuals (per surface unit) are unacceptable, according to environmental or economic impact thresholds, is fundamental to define when to start management actions.

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Invasion impacts and dynamics of a European-wide introduced species

Globalization has led to the introduction of thousands of alien species worldwide. With growing impacts by invasive species, understanding the invasion process remains critical for predicting adverse effects and informing efficient management. Theoretically, invasion dynamics have been assumed to follow an "invasion curve" (S-shaped curve of available area invaded over time), but this dynamic has lacked empirical testing using large-scale data and neglects to consider invader abundances. We propose an "impact curve" describing the impacts generated by invasive species over time based on cumulative abundances. To test this curve's large-scale applicability, we used the data-rich New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum, one of the most damaging freshwater invaders that has invaded almost all of Europe. Using long-term (1979-2020) abundance and environmental data collected across 306 European sites, we observed that P. antipodarum abundance generally increased through time, with slower population growth at higher latitudes and with lower runoff depth. Fifty-nine percent of these populations followed the impact curve, characterized by first occurrence, exponential growth, then long-term saturation. This behaviour is consistent with boom-bust dynamics, as saturation occurs due to a rapid decline in abundance over time. Across sites, we estimated that impact peaked approximately two decades after first detection, but the rate of progression along the invasion process was influenced by local abiotic conditions. The S-shaped impact curve may be common among many invasive species that undergo complex invasion dynamics. This provides a potentially unifying approach to advance understanding of large-scale invasion dynamics and could inform timely management actions to mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies.

GIRAE: a generalised approach for linking the total impact of invasion to species' range, abundance and per-unit effects

The total impact of an alien species was conceptualised as the product of its range size, local abundance and per-unit effect in a seminal paper by Parker et al. (Biol Invasions 1:3-19, 1999). However, a practical approach for estimating the three components has been lacking. Here, we generalise the impact formula and, through use of regression models, estimate the relationship between the three components of impact, an approach we term GIRAE (Generalised Impact = Range size × Abundance × per-unit Effect). We discuss how GIRAE can be applied to multiple types of impact, including environmental impacts, damage and management costs. We propose two methods for applying GIRAE. The species-specific method computes the relationship between impact, range size, abundance and per-unit effect for a given species across multiple invaded sites or regions of different sizes. The multi-species method combines data from multiple species across multiple sites or regions to calculate a per-unit effect for each species and is computed using a single regression model. The species-specific method is more accurate, but it requires a large amount of data for each species and assumes a constant per-unit effect for a species across the invaded area. The multi-species method is more easily applicable and data-parsimonious, but assumes the same relationship between impact, range size and abundance for all considered species. We illustrate these methods using data about money spent managing plant invasions in different biomes of South Africa. We found clear differences between species in terms of money spent per unit area invaded, with per-unit expenditure varying substantially between biomes for some species-insights that are useful for monitoring and evaluating management. GIRAE offers a versatile and practical method that can be applied to many different types of data to better understand and manage the impacts of biological invasions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-022-02836-0.

The macroecology of plant populations from local to global scales

Population ecologists develop theoretical and pragmatic knowledge of how and why populations change or remain stable, how life histories evolve and devise management strategies for populations of concern. However, forecasting the effects of global change or recommending management strategies is often urgent, requiring ecologists to work without detailed local evidence while using data and models from outside the focal location or species. Here we explore how the comparative ecology of populations, population macroecology, can be used to develop generalisations within and between species across different scales, using available demographic, environmental, life history, occurrence and trait data. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of using broad climatic variables and suitability inferred from probability of occupancy models to represent environmental variation in comparative analyses. We evaluate the contributions of traits, environment and their interaction as drivers of life history strategy. We propose that insights from life history theory, together with the adaptive capacity of populations and individuals, can inform on 'persist in place' vs 'shift in space' responses to changing conditions. As demographic data accumulate at landscape and regional scales for single species, and throughout plant phylogenies, we will have new opportunities for testing macroecological generalities within and across species.

Stand age, degree of encroachment and soil characteristics modulate changes of C and N cycles in dry grassland soils invaded by the N2-fixing shrub Amorpha fruticosa

The N₂-fixing shrub Amorpha fruticosa L. is rapidly spreading in the dry riparian natural grasslands of Europe, altering ecosystem functions and depleting plant diversity. Alteration of the N cycle represents the key factor involved in invasions by N₂-fixing plants with cascading effects on plant species richness. We hypothesized that A. fruticosa encroachment strongly impacts not only the N but also the C cycle and that the magnitude of such alterations may be modulated by soil characteristics. To test these hypotheses, we selected four river floodplains in North East of Italy and compared natural uninvaded grasslands with half invaded and completely invaded sites, based on A. fruticosa stand characteristic and relevant leaf traits and on soil properties related to soil texture and to C and N cycles. Soil organic matter mineralisation, ammonification and nitrification rates were determined. Soil nitrification increased remarkably with plant invasion while ammonification was significantly higher only in half invaded sites. Soil organic matter mineralisation, microbial biomass C sustained per soil organic C unit and nitrification positively correlated with stand age, regardless to the stage of the encroachment. Mineralisation and nitrification increased with soil organic C and total N in uninvaded and completely invaded sites, but decreased in half invaded sites. At the half invasion stage, trends in nitrification and CO₂ mineralisation were transitionally reverted and remediation may be facilitated by less pronounced changes in soil properties compared to completely invaded sites. Direct effects of plant invasion are modulated by the action of soil characteristics such as soil organic C and clay contents, with soils rich in organic C showing larger nitrification and mineralisation rates.

Use of spatio-temporal habitat suitability modelling to prioritise areas for common carp biocontrol in Australia using the virus CyHV-3

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) are an invasive species of the rivers and waterways of south-eastern Australia, implicated in the serious decline of many native fish species. Over the past 50 years a variety of control options have been explored, all of which to date have proved either ineffective or cost prohibitive. Most recently the use of cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3) has been proposed as a biocontrol agent, but to assess the risks and benefits of this, as well as to develop a strategy for the release of the virus, a knowledge of the fundamental processes driving carp distribution and abundance is required. To this end, we developed a novel process-based modelling framework that integrates expert opinion with spatio-temporal datasets via the construction of a Bayesian Network. The resulting weekly networks thus enabled an estimate of the habitat suitability for carp across a range of hydrological habitats in south-eastern Australia, covering five diverse catchment areas encompassing in total a drainage area of 132,129 km² over a period of 17-27 years. This showed that while suitability for adult and subadult carp was medium-high across most habitats throughout the period, nevertheless the majority of habitats were poorly suited for the recruitment of larvae and young-of-year (YOY). Instead, high population abundance was confirmed to depend on a small number of recruitment hotspots which occur in years of favourable inundation. Quantification of the underlying ecological drivers of carp abundance thus makes possible detailed planning by focusing on critical weaknesses in the population biology of carp. More specifically, it permits the rational planning for population reduction using the biocontrol agent, CyHV-3, targeting areas where the total population density is above a "damage threshold" of approximately 100 kg/ha.

Species distribution models for invasive Eurasian watermilfoil highlight the importance of data quality and limitations of discrimination accuracy metrics

AIM

Availability of uniformly collected presence, absence, and abundance data remains a key challenge in species distribution modeling (SDM). For invasive species, abundance and impacts are highly variable across landscapes, and quality occurrence and abundance data are critical for predicting locations at high risk for invasion and impacts, respectively. We leverage a large aquatic vegetation dataset comprising point-level survey data that includes information on the invasive plant Myriophyllum spicatum (Eurasian watermilfoil) to: (a) develop SDMs to predict invasion and impact from environmental variables based on presence-absence, presence-only, and abundance data, and (b) compare evaluation metrics based on functional and discrimination accuracy for presence-absence and presence-only SDMs.

LOCATION

Minnesota, USA.

METHODS

Eurasian watermilfoil presence-absence and abundance information were gathered from 468 surveyed lakes, and 801 unsurveyed lakes were leveraged as pseudoabsences for presence-only models. A Random Forest algorithm was used to model the distribution and abundance of Eurasian watermilfoil as a function of lake-specific predictors, both with and without a spatial autocovariate. Occurrence-based SDMs were evaluated using conventional discrimination accuracy metrics and functional accuracy metrics assessing correlation between predicted suitability and observed abundance.

RESULTS

Water temperature degree days and maximum lake depth were two leading predictors influencing both invasion risk and abundance, but they were relatively less important for predicting abundance than other water quality measures. Road density was a strong predictor of Eurasian watermilfoil invasion risk but not abundance. Model evaluations highlighted significant differences: Presence-absence models had high functional accuracy despite low discrimination accuracy, whereas presence-only models showed the opposite pattern.

MAIN CONCLUSION

Complementing presence-absence data with abundance information offers a richer understanding of invasive Eurasian watermilfoil's ecological niche and enables evaluation of the model's functional accuracy. Conventional discrimination accuracy measures were misleading when models were developed using pseudoabsences. We thus caution against the overuse of presence-only models and suggest directing more effort toward systematic monitoring programs that yield high-quality data.

Modelling the damage costs of invasive alien species

The rate of biological invasions is growing unprecedentedly, threatening ecological and socioeconomic systems worldwide. Quantitative understandings of invasion temporal trajectories are essential to discern current and future economic impacts of invaders, and then to inform future management strategies. Here, we examine the temporal trends of cumulative invasion costs by developing and testing a novel mathematical model with a population dynamical approach based on logistic growth. This model characterises temporal cost developments into four curve types (I–IV), each with distinct mathematical and qualitative properties, allowing for the parameterization of maximum cumulative costs, carrying capacities and growth rates. We test our model using damage cost data for eight genera (Rattus, Aedes, Canis, Oryctolagus, Sturnus, Ceratitis, Sus and Lymantria) extracted from the InvaCost database—which is the most up-to-date and comprehensive global compilation of economic cost estimates associated with invasive alien species. We find fundamental differences in the temporal dynamics of damage costs among genera, indicating they depend on invasion duration, species ecology and impacted sectors of economic activity. The fitted cost curves indicate a lack of broadscale support for saturation between invader density and impact, including for Canis, Oryctolagus and Lymantria, whereby costs continue to increase with no sign of saturation. For other taxa, predicted saturations may arise from data availability issues resulting from an underreporting of costs in many invaded regions. Overall, this population dynamical approach can produce cost trajectories for additional existing and emerging species, and can estimate the ecological parameters governing the linkage between population dynamics and cost dynamics.

Global economic costs of aquatic invasive alien species

Much research effort has been invested in understanding ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) across ecosystems and taxonomic groups, but empirical studies about economic effects lack synthesis. Using a comprehensive global database, we determine patterns and trends in economic costs of aquatic IAS by examining: (i) the distribution of these costs across taxa, geographic regions and cost types; (ii) the temporal dynamics of global costs; and (iii) knowledge gaps, especially compared to terrestrial IAS. Based on the costs recorded from the existing literature, the global cost of aquatic IAS conservatively summed to US$345 billion, with the majority attributed to invertebrates (62%), followed by vertebrates (28%), then plants (6%). The largest costs were reported in North America (48%) and Asia (13%), and were principally a result of resource damages (74%); only 6% of recorded costs were from management. The magnitude and number of reported costs were highest in the United States of America and for semi-aquatic taxa. Many countries and known aquatic alien species had no reported costs, especially in Africa and Asia. Accordingly, a network analysis revealed limited connectivity among countries, indicating disparate cost reporting. Aquatic IAS costs have increased in recent decades by several orders of magnitude, reaching at least US$23 billion in 2020. Costs are likely considerably underrepresented compared to terrestrial IAS; only 5% of reported costs were from aquatic species, despite 26% of known invaders being aquatic. Additionally, only 1% of aquatic invasion costs were from marine species. Costs of aquatic IAS are thus substantial, but likely underreported. Costs have increased over time and are expected to continue rising with future invasions. We urge increased and improved cost reporting by managers, practitioners and researchers to reduce knowledge gaps. Few costs are proactive investments; increased management spending is urgently needed to prevent and limit current and future aquatic IAS damages.

Plant functional traits reflect different dimensions of species invasiveness

Trait-based invasiveness studies typically categorize exotic species as invasive or noninvasive, implicitly assuming species form two homogenous groups. However, species can become invasive in different ways (e.g., high abundance, fast spread), likely relying on different functional traits to do so. As such, binary classification may obscure traits associated with invasiveness. We tested whether (1) the way in which invasiveness is quantified influences its correlation with functional traits and (2) different demography-based metrics are related to different sets of traits. Using a case study of 251 herbs exotic to Victoria, Australia, we quantified species' invasiveness using 10 metrics: four continuous, demography-based dimensions of invasiveness (spread rate, local abundance, geographic and environmental range sizes) and six binary classifications of invasiveness (based on alternative sources and invasion criteria). We examined the correlation between species' invasiveness and a set of four traits known to relate to plant demography and invasion. Then, we examined whether different demographic dimensions of invasiveness were better explained by different sets of traits. We found that the way invasiveness was quantified was important: different traits were linked with different invasiveness metrics, and some traits showed opposite effects across metrics. Species with fast spread were either tall with small seeds (i.e., good colonizers), or had heavy, animal-dispersed seeds. Plants with a large environmental range had greater plasticity for some traits. Locally abundant plants had low SLA and heavy seeds (i.e., strong competitors). Animal dispersal was also key to reach a large geographic range. No traits were consistently related to the six binary classifications. Our results indicate that exotic plants are invasive in different ways and rely on different combinations of traits to be so. Some traits (e.g., seed mass) had complex relationships with invasion: they apparently promote, hampered, or had no influence on different dimensions of invasiveness. Our findings are consistent with the notion that plant species use strategies that may be near optimal under some, but not all, ecological conditions. Compared to binary classifications of invasiveness, the use of invasiveness dimensions advances clearer hypothesis testing in invasion science.

Seasonality and forest edge as drivers of Tradescantia zebrina Hort. ex Bosse invasion in the Atlantic Forest

As a result of biodiversity and ecosystem service losses associated with biological invasions, there has been growing interest in basic and applied research on invasive species aiming to improve management strategies. Tradescantia zebrina is a herbaceous species increasingly reported as invasive in the understory of disturbed forest ecosystems. In this study, we assess the effect of spatial and seasonal variation on biological attributes of this species in the Atlantic Forest. To this end, we measured attributes of T. zebrina associated with plant growth and stress in the four seasons at the forest edge and in the forest interior of invaded sites in the Iguaçu National Park, Southern Brazil. The invasive plant had higher growth at the forest edge than in the forest interior and lower leaf asymmetry and herbivory in the winter than in the summer. Our findings suggest that the forest edge environment favours the growth of T. zebrina. This invasive species is highly competitive in the understory of semi-deciduous seasonal forests all over the year. Our study contributes to the management of T. zebrina by showing that the summer is the best season for controlling this species.

How important is individual foraging specialisation in invasive predators for native-prey population viability?

Predation by invasive species is a major threat to the persistence of naïve prey. Typically, this negative effect is addressed by suppressing the population size of the invasive predator to a point where the predation pressure does not hinder the viability of the prey. However, this type of intervention may not be effective whenever a few specialised predators are the cause of the decline. We investigated the effects of varying levels of specialised invasive stoats (Mustela erminea) abundance on the long-term viability of simulated kiwi (Apteryx spp.) populations. We explored four scenarios with different proportions of highly specialised stoats, which were those that had a ≥ 0.75 probability of predating kiwi eggs and chicks if they were within their home range: (i) a stoat population composed mostly of generalists (mean: 0.5 probability of predation across the population); (ii) 5% of highly specialised stoats and the remaining being generalists; (iii) 10% of highly specialised stoats and the remaining being generalists; and, (iv) half highly specialised stoats and half generalists. We found that stoat home range sizes, rather than stoat density or the density of highly specialised stoats, was the main driver of kiwi population trends. Stoats with large home ranges were more likely to predate kiwi eggs and chicks as these were more likely to fall within a large home range. More broadly, our findings show how the daily individual ranging and foraging behaviour of an invasive predator can scale-up to shape population trends of naïve prey.

Management Policies for Invasive Alien Species: Addressing the Impacts Rather than the Species

Effective long-term management is needed to address the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) that cannot be eradicated. We describe the fundamental characteristics of long-term management policies for IAS, diagnose a major shortcoming, and outline how to produce effective IAS management. Key international and transnational management policies conflate addressing IAS impacts with controlling IAS populations. This serious purpose–implementation gap can preclude the development of broader portfolios of interventions to tackle IAS impacts. We posit that IAS management strategies should directly address impacts via impact-based interventions, and we propose six criteria to inform the choice of these interventions. We review examples of interventions focused on tackling IAS impacts, including IAS control, which reveal the range of interventions available and their varying effectiveness in counteracting IAS impacts. As the impacts caused by IAS increase globally, stakeholders need to have access to a broader and more effective set of tools to respond.

Woody Plant Encroachment and the Sustainability of Priority Conservation Areas

Woody encroachment is a global driver of grassland loss and management to counteract encroachment represents one of the most expensive conservation practices implemented in grasslands. Yet, outcomes of these practices are often unknown at large scales and this constrains practitioner’s ability to advance conservation. Here, we use new monitoring data to evaluate outcomes of grassland conservation on woody encroachment for Nebraska’s State Wildlife Action Plan, a statewide effort that targets management in Biologically Unique Landscapes (BULs) to conserve the state’s natural communities. We tracked woody cover trajectories for BULs and compared BUL trajectories with those in non-priority landscapes (non-BULs) to evaluate statewide and BUL-scale conservation outcomes more than a decade after BUL establishment. Statewide, woody cover increased by 256,653 ha (2.3%) from 2000–2017. Most BULs (71%) experienced unsustainable trends of grassland loss to woody encroachment; however, management appeared to significantly reduce BUL encroachment rates compared to non-BULs. Most BULs with early signs of encroachment lacked control strategies, while only one BUL with moderate levels of encroachment (Loess Canyons) showed evidence of a management-driven stabilization of encroachment. These results identify strategic opportunities for proactive management in grassland conservation and demonstrate how new monitoring technology can support large-scale adaptive management pursuits.

Optimal spatial prioritization of control resources for elimination of invasive species under demographic uncertainty

Populations of invasive species often spread heterogeneously across a landscape, consisting of local populations that cluster in space but are connected by dispersal. A fundamental dilemma for invasive species control is how to optimally allocate limited fiscal resources across local populations. Theoretical work based on perfect knowledge of demographic connectivity suggests that targeting local populations from which migrants originate (sources) can be optimal. However, demographic processes such as abundance and dispersal can be highly uncertain, and the relationship between local population density and damage costs (damage function) is rarely known. We used a metapopulation model to understand how budget and uncertainty in abundance, connectivity, and the damage function, together impact return on investment (ROI) for optimal control strategies. Budget, observational uncertainty, and the damage function had strong effects on the optimal resource allocation strategy. Uncertainty in dispersal probability was the least important determinant of ROI. The damage function determined which resource prioritization strategy was optimal when connectivity was symmetric but not when it was asymmetric. When connectivity was asymmetric, prioritizing source populations had a higher ROI than allocating effort equally across local populations, regardless of the damage function, but uncertainty in connectivity structure and abundance reduced ROI of the optimal prioritization strategy by 57% on average depending on the control budget. With low budgets (monthly removal rate of 6.7% of population), there was little advantage to prioritizing resources, especially when connectivity was high or symmetric, and observational uncertainty had only minor effects on ROI. Allotting funding for improved monitoring appeared to be most important when budgets were moderate (monthly removal of 13-20% of the population). Our result showed that multiple sources of observational uncertainty should be considered concurrently for optimizing ROI. Accurate estimates of connectivity direction and abundance were more important than accurate estimates of dispersal rates. Developing cost-effective surveillance methods to reduce observational uncertainties, and quantitative frameworks for determining how resources should be spatially apportioned to multiple monitoring and control activities are important and challenging future directions for optimizing ROI for invasive species control programs.

CONTAIN: Optimising the long-term management of invasive alien species using adaptive management

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) threaten biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services, modify landscapes and impose costs to national economies. Management efforts are underway globally to reduce these impacts, but little attention has been paid to optimising the use of the scarce available resources when IAS are impossible to eradicate, and therefore population reduction and containment of their advance are the only feasible solutions.

CONTAIN, a three-year multinational project involving partners from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and the UK, started in 2019. It develops and tests, via case study examples, a decision-making toolbox for managing different problematic IAS over large spatial extents. Given that vast areas are invaded, spatial prioritisation of management is necessary, often based on sparse data. In turn, these characteristics imply the need to make the best decisions possible under likely heavy uncertainty.

Our decision-support toolbox will integrate the following components:

(i) the relevant environmental, social, cultural, and economic impacts, including their spatial distribution;

(ii) the spatio-temporal dynamics of the target IAS (focusing on dispersal and population recovery);

(iii) the relationship between the abundance of the IAS and its impacts;

(iv) economic methods to estimate both benefits and costs to inform the spatial prioritisation of cost-effective interventions.

To ensure that our approach is relevant for different contexts in Latin America, we are working with model species having contrasting modes of dispersal, which have large environmental and/or economic impacts, and for which data already exist (invasive pines, privet, wasps, and American mink). We will also model plausible scenarios for data-poor pine and grass species, which impact local people in Argentina, Brazil and Chile.

We seek the most effective strategic management actions supported by empirical data on the species’ population dynamics and dispersal that underpin reinvasion, and on intervention costs in a spatial context. Our toolbox serves to identify key uncertainties driving the systems, and especially to highlight gaps where new data would most effectively reduce uncertainty on the best course of action. The problems we are tackling are complex, and we are embedding them in a process of co-operative adaptive management, so that both researchers and managers continually improve their effectiveness by confronting different models to data. Our project is also building research capacity in Latin America by sharing knowledge/information between countries and disciplines (i.e., biological, social and economic), by training early-career researchers through research visits, through our continuous collaboration with other researchers and by training and engaging stakeholders via workshops. Finally, all these activities will establish an international network of researchers, managers and decision-makers. We expect that our lessons learned will be of use in other regions of the world where complex and inherently context-specific realities shape how societies deal with IAS.

Non-native species have multiple abundance-impact curves

The abundance-impact curve is helpful for understanding and managing the impacts of non-native species. Abundance-impact curves can have a wide range of shapes (e.g., linear, threshold, sigmoid), each with its own implications for scientific understanding and management. Sometimes, the abundance-impact curve has been viewed as a property of the species, with a single curve for a species. I argue that the abundance-impact curve is determined jointly by a non-native species and the ecosystem it invades, so that a species may have multiple abundance-impact curves. Models of the impacts of the invasive mussel Dreissena show how a single species can have multiple, noninterchangeable abundance-impact curves. To the extent that ecosystem characteristics determine the abundance-impact curve, abundance-impact curves based on horizontal designs (space-for-time substitution) may be misleading and should be used with great caution, it at all. It is important for scientists and managers to correctly specify the abundance-impact curve when considering the impacts of non-native species. Diverting attention from the invading species to the invaded ecosystem, and especially to the interaction between species and ecosystem, could improve our understanding of how non-native species affect ecosystems and reduce uncertainty around the effects of management of populations of non-native species.

On the RIP: using Relative Impact Potential to assess the ecological impacts of invasive alien species

Invasive alien species continue to arrive in new locations with no abatement in rate, and thus greater predictive powers surrounding their ecological impacts are required. In particular, we need improved means of quantifying the ecological impacts of new invasive species under different contexts. Here, we develop a suite of metrics based upon the novel Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, combining the functional response (consumer per capita effect), with proxies for the numerical response (consumer population response), providing quantification of invasive species ecological impact. These metrics are comparative in relation to the eco-evolutionary baseline of trophically analogous natives, as well as other invasive species and across multiple populations. Crucially, the metrics also reveal how impacts of invasive species change under abiotic and biotic contexts. While studies focused solely on functional responses have been successful in predictive invasion ecology, RIP retains these advantages while adding vital other predictive elements, principally consumer abundance. RIP can also be combined with propagule pressure to quantify overall invasion risk. By highlighting functional response and numerical response proxies, we outline a user-friendly method for assessing the impacts of invaders of all trophic levels and taxonomic groups. We apply the metric to impact assessment in the face of climate change by taking account of both changing predator consumption rates and prey reproduction rates. We proceed to outline the application of RIP to assess biotic resistance against incoming invasive species, the effect of evolution on invasive species impacts, application to interspecific competition, changing spatio-temporal patterns of invasion, and how RIP can inform biological control. We propose that RIP provides scientists and practitioners with a user-friendly, customisable and, crucially, powerful technique to inform invasive species policy and management.

Non-native plants have greater impacts because of differing per-capita effects and nonlinear abundance-impact curves

Invasive, non-native species can have tremendous impacts on biotic communities, where they reduce the abundance and diversity of local species. However, it remains unclear whether impacts of non-native species arise from their high abundance or whether each non-native individual has a disproportionate impact - that is, a higher per-capita effect - on co-occurring species compared to impacts by native species. Using a long-term study of wetlands, we asked how temporal variation in dominant native and non-native plants impacted the abundance and richness of other plants in the recipient community. Non-native plants reached higher abundances than natives and had greater per-capita effects. The abundance-impact relationship between plant abundance and richness was nonlinear. Compared with increasing native abundance, increasing non-native abundance was associated with steeper declines in richness because of greater per-capita effects and nonlinearities in the abundance-impact relationship. Our study supports eco-evolutionary novelty of non-natives as a driver of their outsized impacts on communities.

Disentangling the abundance-impact relationship for invasive species

To predict the threat of biological invasions to native species, it is critical that we understand how increasing abundance of invasive alien species (IAS) affects native populations and communities. The form of this relationship across taxa and ecosystems is unknown, but is expected to depend strongly on the trophic position of the IAS relative to the native species. Using a global metaanalysis based on 1,258 empirical studies presented in 201 scientific publications, we assessed the shape, direction, and strength of native responses to increasing invader abundance. We also tested how native responses varied with relative trophic position and for responses at the population vs. community levels. As IAS abundance increased, native populations declined nonlinearly by 20%, on average, and community metrics declined linearly by 25%. When at higher trophic levels, invaders tended to cause a strong, nonlinear decline in native populations and communities, with the greatest impacts occurring at low invader abundance. In contrast, invaders at the same trophic level tended to cause a linear decline in native populations and communities, while invaders at lower trophic levels had no consistent impacts. At the community level, increasing invader abundance had significantly larger effects on species evenness and diversity than on species richness. Our results show that native responses to invasion depend critically on invasive species' abundance and trophic position. Further, these general abundance-impact relationships reveal how IAS impacts are likely to develop during the invasion process and when to best manage them.

Evaluating the effects of landscape structure on the recovery of an invasive vertebrate after population control

CONTEXT

Effective landscape control of invasive species is context-dependent due to the interplay between the landscape structure, local population dynamics, and metapopulation processes. We use a modelling approach incorporating these three elements to explore the drivers of recovery of populations of invasive species after control.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to improve our understanding of the factors influencing the landscape-level control of invasive species.

METHODS

We focus on the case study of invasive brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) control in New Zealand. We assess how 13 covariates describing the landscape, patch, and population features influence the time of population recovery to a management density threshold of two possums/ha. We demonstrate the effects of those covariates on population recovery under three scenarios of population growth: logistic growth, strong Allee effects, and weak Allee effects.

RESULTS

Recovery times were rapid regardless of the simulated population dynamics (average recovery time < 2 years), although populations experiencing Allee effects took longer to recover than those growing logistically. Our results indicate that habitat availability and patch area play a key role in reducing times to recovery after control, and this relationship is consistent across the three simulated scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The control of invasive possum populations in patchy landscapes would benefit from a patch-level management approach (considering each patch as an independent management unit), whereas simple landscapes would be better controlled by taking a landscape-level view (the landscape as the management unit). Future research should test the predictions of our models with empirical data to refine control operations.

Doublethink and scale mismatch polarize policies for an invasive tree

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

To Spray or Not to Spray: A Decision Analysis of Coffee Berry Borer in Hawaii

Integrated pest management strategies were adopted to combat the coffee berry borer (CBB) after its arrival in Hawaii in 2010. A decision tree framework is used to model the CBB integrated pest management recommendations, for potential use by growers and to assist in developing and evaluating management strategies and policies. The model focuses on pesticide spraying (spray/no spray) as the most significant pest management decision within each period over the entire crop season. The main result from the analysis suggests the most important parameter to maximize net benefit is to ensure a low initial infestation level. A second result looks at the impact of a subsidy for the cost of pesticides and shows a typical farmer receives a positive net benefit of $947.17. Sensitivity analysis of parameters checks the robustness of the model and further confirms the importance of a low initial infestation level vis-a-vis any level of subsidy. The use of a decision tree is shown to be an effective method for understanding integrated pest management strategies and solutions.