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Souther S, Colombo S, Lyndon NN. Integrating traditional ecological knowledge into US public land management: Knowledge gaps and research priorities. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.988126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) is an understanding of natural systems acquired through long-term human interactions with particular landscapes. Traditional knowledge systems complement western scientific disciplines by providing a holistic assessment of ecosystem dynamics and extending the time horizon of ecological observations. Integration of TEK into land management is a key priority of numerous groups, including the United Nations and US public land management agencies; however, TEK principles have rarely been enshrined in national-level US policy or planning. We review over 20 years of TEK literature to describe key applications of TEK to ecological understanding, conservation, restoration and land management generally. By identifying knowledge gaps, we highlight research avenues to support the integration of TEK into US public land management, in order to enhance conservation approaches and participation of historically underrepresented groups, particularly American Indian Tribes, in the stewardship of ancestral lands critical to the practice of living cultural traditions.
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Conquet E, Ozgul A, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB, Oli MK, Martin JGA, Clutton-Brock TH, Paniw M. Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity. Ecology 2023; 104:e3894. [PMID: 36208282 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Conquet
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Daniel T Blumstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.,The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA
| | - Kenneth B Armitage
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Julien G A Martin
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Tim H Clutton-Brock
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Kalahari Research Trust, Kuruman River Reserve, Northern Cape, South Africa.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Department of Conservation and Global Change, Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC), Seville, Spain
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3
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Svendsen NA, Radchuk V, Morel-Journel T, Thuillier V, Schtickzelle N. Complexity vs linearity: relations between functional traits in a heterotrophic protist. BMC Ecol Evol 2023; 23:1. [PMID: 36631737 PMCID: PMC9832698 DOI: 10.1186/s12862-022-02102-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2022] [Accepted: 12/26/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Functional traits are phenotypic traits that affect an organism's performance and shape ecosystem-level processes. The main challenge when using functional traits to quantify biodiversity is to choose which ones to measure since effort and money are limited. As one way of dealing with this, Hodgson et al. (Oikos 85:282, 1999) introduced the idea of two types of traits, with soft traits that are easy and quick to quantify, and hard traits that are directly linked to ecosystem functioning but difficult to measure. If a link exists between the two types of traits, then one could use soft traits as a proxy for hard traits for a quick but meaningful assessment of biodiversity. However, this framework is based on two assumptions: (1) hard and soft traits must be tightly connected to allow reliable prediction of one using the other; (2) the relationship between traits must be monotonic and linear to be detected by the most common statistical techniques (e.g. linear model, PCA). RESULTS Here we addressed those two assumptions by focusing on six functional traits of the protist species Tetrahymena thermophila, which vary both in their measurement difficulty and functional meaningfulness. They were classified as: easy traits (morphological traits), intermediate traits (movement traits) and hard traits (oxygen consumption and population growth rate). We detected a high number (> 60%) of non-linear relations between the traits, which can explain the low number of significant relations found using linear models and PCA analysis. Overall, these analyses did not detect any relationship strong enough to predict one trait using another, but that does not imply there are none. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlighted the need to critically assess the relations among the functional traits used as proxies and those functional traits which they aim to reflect. A thorough assessment of whether such relations exist across species and communities is a necessary next step to evaluate whether it is possible to take a shortcut in quantifying functional diversity by collecting the data on easily measurable traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nils A. Svendsen
- grid.7942.80000 0001 2294 713XEarth and Life Institute, Biodiversity Research Center, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Viktoriia Radchuk
- grid.418779.40000 0001 0708 0355Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Alfred-Kowalke-Straße 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Thibaut Morel-Journel
- grid.7942.80000 0001 2294 713XEarth and Life Institute, Biodiversity Research Center, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium ,grid.440907.e0000 0004 1784 3645Centre Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Biologie (CIRB), Collège de France, PSL Research University, CNRS UMR 7241, Paris, France
| | - Virginie Thuillier
- grid.7942.80000 0001 2294 713XEarth and Life Institute, Biodiversity Research Center, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Nicolas Schtickzelle
- grid.7942.80000 0001 2294 713XEarth and Life Institute, Biodiversity Research Center, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium
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4
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Clements SJ, Loghry JP, Ballard BM, Weegman MD. Carry‐over effects of weather and decision‐making on nest success of a migratory shorebird. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9581. [PMCID: PMC9745104 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Revised: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 11/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah J. Clements
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
| | - Jason P. Loghry
- Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute Texas A&M University Kingsville Texas USA
| | - Bart M. Ballard
- Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute Texas A&M University Kingsville Texas USA
| | - Mitch D. Weegman
- School of Natural Resources University of Missouri Columbia Missouri USA
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
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5
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Kanno Y, Kim S, Pregler KC. Sub‐seasonal correlation between growth and survival in three sympatric aquatic ectotherms. OIKOS 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yoichiro Kanno
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
| | - Seoghyun Kim
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
| | - Kasey C. Pregler
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
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6
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Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios. Animals (Basel) 2022; 12:ani12223226. [PMID: 36428454 PMCID: PMC9686532 DOI: 10.3390/ani12223226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 11/13/2022] [Accepted: 11/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Studying current and future geographic distribution is essential for conserving endangered species such as the Boreal Owl and Eurasian Pygmy Owl. The main aim of this study was to determine the potential distribution of both species in the Balkan Peninsula by using spatial distribution models (SDMs) in MaxEnt. We used data from field surveys, the scientific and grey literature, and an online database. We considered the current time and two future periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For future periods, we included different climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) in studying the potential geographic distribution of both species. We identified two types of potential future refugia for species: in situ and ex situ. Our study shows the highly suitable area for the Boreal Owl increased during the 2041-2060 period compared with the current area in all scenarios, except in SSP 585. However, during the 2061-2080 period, the highly suitable areas contracted. For the Eurasian Pygmy Owl, highly suitable areas decreased during 2041-2060, but during the 2061-2080 period, it was larger than the current area. Our study is of importance for conservation and preserving areas of potential distribution and refugia for Boreal and Eurasian Pygmy Owls in the face of climate change.
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Le Coeur C, Yoccoz NG, Salguero-Gómez R, Vindenes Y. Life history adaptations to fluctuating environments: Combined effects of demographic buffering and lability. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:2107-2119. [PMID: 35986627 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14071] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Revised: 06/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
Demographic buffering and lability have been identified as adaptive strategies to optimise fitness in a fluctuating environment. These are not mutually exclusive, however, we lack efficient methods to measure their relative importance for a given life history. Here, we decompose the stochastic growth rate (fitness) into components arising from nonlinear responses and variance-covariance of demographic parameters to an environmental driver, which allows studying joint effects of buffering and lability. We apply this decomposition for 154 animal matrix population models under different scenarios to explore how these main fitness components vary across life histories. Faster-living species appear more responsive to environmental fluctuations, either positively or negatively. They have the highest potential for strong adaptive demographic lability, while demographic buffering is a main strategy in slow-living species. Our decomposition provides a comprehensive framework to study how organisms adapt to variability through buffering and lability, and to predict species responses to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christie Le Coeur
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | | | - Yngvild Vindenes
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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8
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Zhang W, Sun H, Su R, Wang S. Fat rather than health - Ecotoxic responses of Bufo raddei to environmental heavy metal stress during the non-breeding season. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 2022; 244:114040. [PMID: 36055043 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2022.114040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Revised: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 08/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The non-breeding season is a critical period for iteroparous animals to repair damage and store energy, which is crucial for future survival and reproductive success. However, it is unknown how animals allocate energy efficiently among reproduction, self-maintenance, and repair of oxidative damage caused by breeding during the non-breeding period, particularly under pollution. In the present study, the self-maintenance response and reproductive strategy of Bufo raddei to long-term environmental heavy metal stress was explored during the non-breeding season. Heavy metal enrichment level, organ coefficients, nutritional status, gonadal developmental level, oxidation level, and the immune status of B. raddei during the non-breeding season were tested, energy allocation preferences and energy consumption costs were analyzed. The results revealed significant heavy metal accumulation through biomagnification in the organs of B. raddei from the polluted area. Under long-term environmental heavy metal pollution, the energy investment by B. raddei for growth and energy storage was higher than that for health-maintenance during the early life cycle stage. The energy inputted for immune and antioxidant functions was significantly lower, and the energy inputted for self-maintenance during the early life stage was significantly higher than that during the late stage. B. raddei from a heavy metal polluted area spent more energy consumption cost on immunity and oxidative stress, but suffered higher oxidative stress and lower immune status. Moreover, the reproductive input of individuals in a heavy metal polluted area was generally low during the non-breeding season, and the energy input for reproduction limited the energy input for self-maintenance in females.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenya Zhang
- Gansu Key Laboratory of Biomonitoring and Bioremediation for Environmental Pollution, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
| | - Hao Sun
- Gansu Key Laboratory of Biomonitoring and Bioremediation for Environmental Pollution, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Rui Su
- Gansu Key Laboratory of Biomonitoring and Bioremediation for Environmental Pollution, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
| | - Shengnan Wang
- Gansu Key Laboratory of Biomonitoring and Bioremediation for Environmental Pollution, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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9
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Eastick DL, Griffiths SR, Yen JDL, Robert KA. Size at Birth, Postnatal Growth, and Reproductive Timing in an Australian Microbat. Integr Org Biol 2022; 4:obac030. [PMID: 36060865 PMCID: PMC9436771 DOI: 10.1093/iob/obac030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Reproductive phenology, size at birth, and postnatal growth are important life history traits that reflect parental investment. The ability to document detailed changes in these traits can be a valuable tool in the identification and management of at-risk wildlife populations. We examined reproductive traits in a common, widespread Australian microbat, Chalinolobus gouldii, at two sites over two years and derived growth curves and age estimation equations which will be useful in the study of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors alter parental investment strategies. We found that male and female offspring did not differ significantly in their size at birth or their postnatal growth rates. Bats born in 2018 were smaller at birth but grew at a faster rate than those born in 2017. When date of birth was compared across sites and years, we found bats born in 2018 had a later median birthdate (by 18 days) and births were more widespread than those born in 2017. Cooler and wetter weather during late gestation (Nov) in 2018 may have prolonged gestation and delayed births. With many bats facing threatening processes it is important to study reproductive plasticity in common and widespread “model” species, which may assist in the conservation and management of threatened microbats with similar reproductive traits.
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Affiliation(s)
- D L Eastick
- School of Agriculture, Biomedicine and Environment, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
- Centre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
| | - S R Griffiths
- School of Agriculture, Biomedicine and Environment, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
- Centre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
| | - J D L Yen
- Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment , Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Victoria 3084
| | - K A Robert
- School of Agriculture, Biomedicine and Environment, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
- Centre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Victoria 3086
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10
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Fay R, Hamel S, van de Pol M, Gaillard JM, Yoccoz NG, Acker P, Authier M, Larue B, Le Coeur C, Macdonald KR, Nicol-Harper A, Barbraud C, Bonenfant C, Van Vuren DH, Cam E, Delord K, Gamelon M, Moiron M, Pelletier F, Rotella J, Teplitsky C, Visser ME, Wells CP, Wheelwright NT, Jenouvrier S, Saether BE. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1640-1654. [PMID: 35610546 PMCID: PMC9323452 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rémi Fay
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sandra Hamel
- Département de biologie, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, Canada
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Paul Acker
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Matthieu Authier
- Observatoire PELAGIS, UMS-CNRS 3462, Université de la Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Benjamin Larue
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Christie Le Coeur
- Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Alex Nicol-Harper
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, UK.,Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Christophe Bonenfant
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Dirk H Van Vuren
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, USA
| | - Emmanuelle Cam
- LEMAR, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Plouzané, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.,Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Maria Moiron
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.,Institute of Avian Research, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Fanie Pelletier
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Jay Rotella
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | | | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Caitlin P Wells
- Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology Department, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA.,Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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11
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Schmid M, Paniw M, Postuma M, Ozgul A, Guillaume F. A tradeoff between robustness to environmental fluctuations and speed of evolution. Am Nat 2022; 200:E16-E35. [DOI: 10.1086/719654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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12
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Allen AM, Jongejans E, van de Pol M, Ens BJ, Frauendorf M, van der Sluijs M, de Kroon H. The demographic causes of population change vary across four decades in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 2021; 103:e3615. [PMID: 34921394 PMCID: PMC9286424 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 09/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Understanding which factors cause populations to decline begins with identifying which parts of the life cycle, and which vital rates, have changed over time. However, in a world where humans are altering the environment both rapidly and in different ways, the demographic causes of decline likely vary over time. Identifying temporal variation in demographic causes of decline is crucial to assure that conservation actions target current and not past threats. However, this has rarely been studied as it requires long time series. Here we investigate how the demography of a long‐lived shorebird (the Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus) has changed in the past four decades, resulting in a shift from stable dynamics to strong declines (−9% per year), and recently back to a modest decline. Since individuals of this species are likely to respond differently to environmental change, we captured individual heterogeneity through three state variables: age, breeding status, and lay date (using integral projection models). Timing of egg‐laying explained significant levels of variation in reproduction, with a parabolic relationship of maximal productivity near the average lay date. Reproduction explained most variation in population growth rates, largely due to poor nest success and hatchling survival. However, the demographic causes of decline have also been in flux over the last three decades: hatchling survival was low in the 2000s but improved in the 2010s, while adult survival declined in the 2000s and remains low today. Overall, the joint action of several key demographic variables explain the decline of the oystercatcher, and improvements in a single vital rate cannot halt the decline. Conservations actions will thus need to address threats occurring at different stages of the oystercatcher's life cycle. The dynamic nature of the threat landscape is further supported by the finding that the average individual no longer has the highest performance in the population, and emphasizes how individual heterogeneity in vital rates can play an important role in modulating population growth rates. Our results indicate that understanding population decline in the current era requires disentangling demographic mechanisms, individual variability, and their changes over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew M. Allen
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Animal Ecology and PhysiologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Animal Ecology and PhysiologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- College of Science and EngineeringJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQueenslandAustralia
| | - Bruno J. Ens
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field OrnithologySovon‐TexelTexelThe Netherlands
| | - Magali Frauendorf
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Martijn van der Sluijs
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Hans de Kroon
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Experimental Plant EcologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
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13
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Zhao Q, Heath-Acre K, Collins D, Conway W, Weegman MD. Integrated population modelling reveals potential drivers of demography from partially aligned data: a case study of snowy plover declines under human stressors. PeerJ 2021; 9:e12475. [PMID: 34820197 PMCID: PMC8601057 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Knowledge of demography is essential for understanding wildlife population dynamics and developing appropriate conservation plans. However, population survey and demographic data (e.g., capture-recapture) are not always aligned in space and time, hindering our ability to robustly estimate population size and demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) can provide inference for population dynamics with poorly aligned but jointly analysed population and demographic data. In this study, we used an IPM to analyse partially aligned population and demographic data of a migratory shorebird species, the snowy plover (Charadrius nivosus). Snowy plover populations have declined dramatically during the last two decades, yet the demographic mechanisms and environmental drivers of these declines remain poorly understood, hindering development of appropriate conservation strategies. We analysed 21 years (1998-2018) of partially aligned population survey, nest survey, and capture-recapture-resight data in three snowy plover populations (i.e., Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma) in the Southern Great Plains of the US. By using IPMs we aimed to achieve better precision while evaluating the effects of wetland habitat and climatic factors (minimum temperature, wind speed) on snowy plover demography. Our IPM provided reasonable precision for productivity measures even with missing data, but population and survival estimates had greater uncertainty in years without corresponding data. Our model also uncovered the complex relationships between wetland habitat, climate, and demography with reasonable precision. Wetland habitat had positive effects on snowy plover productivity (i.e., clutch size and clutch fate), indicating the importance of protecting wetland habitat under climate change and other human stressors for the conservation of this species. We also found a positive effect of minimum temperature on snowy plover productivity, indicating potential benefits of warmth during night on their population. Based on our results, we suggest prioritizing population and capture-recapture surveys for understanding population dynamics and underlying demographic processes when data collection is limited by time and/or financial resources. Our modelling approach can be used to allocate limited conservation resources for evidence-based decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Zhao
- University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, United States
| | - Kristen Heath-Acre
- University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri, United States.,Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States
| | - Daniel Collins
- US Fish & Wildlife Service, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
| | - Warren Conway
- Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States
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14
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Le Vaillant J, Potti J, Camacho C, Canal D, Martínez-Padilla J. Fluctuating selection driven by global and local climatic conditions leads to stasis in breeding time in a migratory bird. J Evol Biol 2021; 34:1541-1553. [PMID: 34415649 DOI: 10.1111/jeb.13916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Revised: 07/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The origin of natural selection is linked to environmental heterogeneity, which influences variation in relative fitness among phenotypes. However, individuals in wild populations are exposed to a plethora of biotic and abiotic environmental factors. Surprisingly, the relative influence of multiple environmental conditions on the relative fitness of phenotypes has rarely been tested in wild populations. Identifying the main selection agent(s) is crucial when the target phenotype is tightly linked to reproduction and when temporal variation in selection is expected to affect evolutionary responses. By using individual-based data from a 29-year study of a short-lived migratory songbird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), we studied the relative influence of 28 temperature- and precipitation-based factors at local and global scales on selection on breeding time (egg laying) at the phenotypic level. Selection, estimated using the number of recruits as a proxy for fitness, penalized late breeders. Minimum temperatures in April and May were the environmental drivers that best explained selection on laying date. In particular, there was negative directional selection on laying date mediated by minimum temperature in April, being strongest in cold years. In addition, nonlinear selection on laying date was influenced by minimum temperatures in May, with selection on laying date changing from null to negative as the breeding season progressed. The intensity of selection on late breeders increased when minimum temperatures in May were highest. Our results illustrate the complex influence of environmental factors on selection on laying date in wild bird populations. Despite minimum temperature in April being the only variable that changed over time, its increase did not induce a shift in laying date in the population. In this songbird population, stabilizing selection has led to a three-decade stasis in breeding time. We suggest that variation in the effects of multiple climatic variables on selection may constrain phenotypic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justine Le Vaillant
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana-CSIC, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Jaime Potti
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana-CSIC, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Carlos Camacho
- Department of Biological Conservation and Ecosystem Restoration, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC), Jaca, Spain
| | - David Canal
- Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Jesús Martínez-Padilla
- Department of Biological Conservation and Ecosystem Restoration, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC), Jaca, Spain
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15
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Srivastava DS, Coristine L, Angert AL, Bontrager M, Amundrud SL, Williams JL, Yeung ACY, Zwaan DR, Thompson PL, Aitken SN, Sunday JM, O'Connor MI, Whitton J, Brown NEM, MacLeod CD, Parfrey LW, Bernhardt JR, Carrillo J, Harley CDG, Martone PT, Freeman BG, Tseng M, Donner SD. Wildcards in climate change biology. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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16
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Quéroué M, Barbraud C, Barraquand F, Turek D, Delord K, Pacoureau N, Gimenez O. Multispecies integrated population model reveals bottom‐up dynamics in a seabird predator–prey system. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Maud Quéroué
- CEFE Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD Montpellier France
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) UMR 7372 CNRS‐La Rochelle Université Villiers‐en‐Bois 79360 France
| | - Frédéric Barraquand
- Institute of Mathematics of Bordeaux CNRS, University of Bordeaux 351 Cours de la Libération Talence 33400 France
| | - Daniel Turek
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics Williams College 18 Hoxsey Street Williamstown Massachusetts 01267 USA
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) UMR 7372 CNRS‐La Rochelle Université Villiers‐en‐Bois 79360 France
| | - Nathan Pacoureau
- Department of Biological Sciences Earth to Ocean Research Group Simon Fraser University 8888 University Drive Burnaby British Columbia V5A 1S6 Canada
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17
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Saunders SP, Piper W, Farr MT, Bateman BL, Michel NL, Westerkam H, Wilsey CB. Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:1165-1176. [PMID: 33754380 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2020] [Accepted: 02/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Walter Piper
- Schmid College of Science & Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA, USA
| | - Matthew T Farr
- Department of Integrative Biology, Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
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18
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Mitchell CI, Friend DA, Phillips LT, Hunter EA, Lovich JE, Agha M, Puffer SR, Cummings KL, Medica PA, Esque TC, Nussear KE, Shoemaker KT. ‘Unscrambling’ the drivers of egg production in Agassiz’s desert tortoise: climate and individual attributes predict reproductive output. ENDANGER SPECIES RES 2021. [DOI: 10.3354/esr01103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The ‘bet hedging’ life history strategy of long-lived iteroparous species reduces short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure over a lifetime. For desert-dwelling ectotherms living in variable and unpredictable environments, reproductive output is further influenced by precipitation and temperature via effects on food availability and limits on activity. We assembled multiple (n = 12) data sets on egg production for the threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii across its range and used these data to build a range-wide predictive model of annual reproductive output as a function of annual weather variation and individual-level attributes (body size and prior-year reproductive status). Climate variables were more robust predictors of reproductive output than individual-level attributes, with overall reproductive output positively related to prior-year precipitation and an earlier start to the spring activity season, and negatively related to spring temperature extremes (monthly temperature range in March-April). Reproductive output was highest for individuals with larger body sizes that reproduced in the previous year. Expected annual reproductive output from 1990-2018 varied from 2-5 to 6-12 eggs female-1 yr-1 , with a weak decline in expected reproductive output over this time (p = 0.02). Climate-driven environmental variation in expected reproductive output was highly correlated across all 5 Recovery Units for this species (Pearson’s r > 0.9). Overall, our model suggests that climate change could strongly impact the reproductive output of Agassiz’s desert tortoise, and could have a negative population-level effect if precipitation is significantly reduced across the species’ range as predicted under some climate models.
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Affiliation(s)
- CI Mitchell
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
- Desert Centered Ecology, LLC, Tucson, AZ 85716, USA
| | - DA Friend
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
| | - LT Phillips
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
| | - EA Hunter
- Department of Biology, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460, USA
| | - JE Lovich
- US Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - M Agha
- Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA 98501, USA
| | - SR Puffer
- US Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - KL Cummings
- US Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - PA Medica
- US Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center, Henderson, NV 89074, USA
| | - TC Esque
- US Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center, Henderson, NV 89074, USA
| | - KE Nussear
- Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
| | - KT Shoemaker
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA
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19
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Louthan AM, Morris W. Climate change impacts on population growth across a species' range differ due to nonlinear responses of populations to climate and variation in rates of climate change. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0247290. [PMID: 33657137 PMCID: PMC7928526 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 02/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Impacts of climate change can differ substantially across species’ geographic ranges, and impacts on a given population can be difficult to predict accurately. A commonly used approximation for the impacts of climate change on the population growth rate is the product of local changes in each climate variable (which may differ among populations) and the sensitivity (the derivative of the population growth rate with respect to that climate variable), summed across climate variables. However, this approximation may not be accurate for predicting changes in population growth rate across geographic ranges, because the sensitivities to climate variables or the rate of climate change may differ among populations. In addition, while this approximation assumes a linear response of population growth rate to climate, population growth rate is typically a nonlinear function of climate variables. Here, we use climate-driven integral projection models combined with projections of future climate to predict changes in population growth rate from 2008 to 2099 for an uncommon alpine plant species, Douglasia alaskana, in a rapidly warming location, southcentral Alaska USA. We dissect the causes of among-population variation in climate change impacts, including magnitude of climate change in each population and nonlinearities in population response to climate change. We show that much of the variation in climate change impacts across D. alaskana’s range arises from nonlinearities in population response to climate. Our results highlight the critical role of nonlinear responses to climate change impacts, suggesting that current responses to increases in temperature or changes in precipitation may not continue indefinitely under continued changes in climate. Further, our results suggest the degree of nonlinearity in climate responses and the shape of responses (e.g., convex or concave) can differ substantially across populations, such that populations may differ dramatically in responses to future climate even when their current responses are quite similar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison M. Louthan
- Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - William Morris
- Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
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20
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Selonen V, Helle S, Laaksonen T, Ahola MP, Lehikoinen E, Eeva T. Identifying the paths of climate effects on population dynamics: dynamic and multilevel structural equation model around the annual cycle. Oecologia 2021; 195:525-538. [PMID: 33459864 PMCID: PMC7882558 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04817-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Accepted: 11/24/2020] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
How environmental factors influence population dynamics in long-distance migrants is complicated by the spatiotemporal diversity of the environment the individuals experience during the annual cycle. The effects of weather on several different aspects of life history have been well studied, but a better understanding is needed on how weather affects population dynamics through the different associated traits. We utilise 77 years of data from pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), to identify the most relevant climate signals associated with population growth rate. The strongest signals on population growth were observed from climate during periods when the birds were not present in the focal location. The population decline was associated with increasing precipitation in the African non-breeding quarters in the autumn (near the arrival of migrants) and with increasing winter temperature along the migration route (before migration). The number of fledglings was associated positively with increasing winter temperature in non-breeding area and negatively with increasing winter temperature in Europe. These possible carry-over effects did not arise via timing of breeding or clutch size but the exact mechanism remains to be revealed in future studies. High population density and low fledgling production were the intrinsic factors reducing the breeding population. We conclude that weather during all seasons has the potential to affect the reproductive success or population growth rate of this species. Our results show how weather can influence the population dynamics of a migratory species through multiple pathways, even at times of the annual cycle when the birds are in a different location than the climate signal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vesa Selonen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
| | - Samuli Helle
- Department of Social Research, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Toni Laaksonen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Markus P Ahola
- Environmental Research and Monitoring, Swedish Museum of Natural History, 10405, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Esa Lehikoinen
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Tapio Eeva
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
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21
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Acker P, Daunt F, Wanless S, Burthe SJ, Newell MA, Harris MP, Grist H, Sturgeon J, Swann RL, Gunn C, Payo‐Payo A, Reid JM. Strong survival selection on seasonal migration versus residence induced by extreme climatic events. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:796-808. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 11/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Paul Acker
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Institutt for Biologi NTNU Trondheim Norway
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Hannah Grist
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
- Scottish Association for Marine Science Scottish Marine Institute Oban UK
| | - Jenny Sturgeon
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | | | - Carrie Gunn
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Midlothian UK
| | - Ana Payo‐Payo
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - Jane M. Reid
- School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Institutt for Biologi NTNU Trondheim Norway
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22
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Le Coeur C, Storkey J, Ramula S. Population responses to observed climate variability across multiple organismal groups. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Christie Le Coeur
- Dept of Biology, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Univ. of Turku Turku Finland
| | - Jonathan Storkey
- Sustainable Agricultural Sciences, Rothamsted Research Harpenden Hertfordshire UK
| | - Satu Ramula
- Dept of Biology, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Univ. of Turku Turku Finland
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23
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DeLong JP, Lyon S. Temperature alters the shape of predator-prey cycles through effects on underlying mechanisms. PeerJ 2020; 8:e9377. [PMID: 32596054 PMCID: PMC7307560 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.9377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2020] [Accepted: 05/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Predicting the effects of climate warming on the dynamics of ecological systems requires understanding how temperature influences birth rates, death rates and the strength of species interactions. The temperature dependance of these processes—which are the underlying mechanisms of ecological dynamics—is often thought to be exponential or unimodal, generally supported by short-term experiments. However, ecological dynamics unfold over many generations. Our goal was to empirically document shifts in predator–prey cycles over the full range of temperatures that can possibly support a predator–prey system and then to uncover the effect of temperature on the underlying mechanisms driving those changes. Methods We measured the population dynamics of the Didinium-Paramecium predator–prey system across a wide range of temperatures to reveal systematic changes in the dynamics of the system. We then used ordinary differential equation fitting to estimate parameters of a model describing the dynamics, and used these estimates to assess the long-term temperature dependance of all the underlying mechanisms. Results We found that predator–prey cycles shrank in state space from colder to hotter temperatures and that both cycle period and amplitude varied with temperature. Model parameters showed mostly unimodal responses to temperature, with one parameter (predator mortality) increasing monotonically with temperature and one parameter (predator conversion efficiency) invariant with temperature. Our results indicate that temperature can have profound, systematic effects on ecological dynamics, and these can arise through diverse and simultaneous changes in multiple underlying mechanisms. Predicting the effects of temperature on ecological dynamics may require additional investigation into how the underlying drivers of population dynamics respond to temperature beyond a short-term, acute response.
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Affiliation(s)
- John P DeLong
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA
| | - Shelby Lyon
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA
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24
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Paniw M, Childs DZ, Armitage KB, Blumstein DT, Martin JGA, Oli MK, Ozgul A. Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal. Ecol Lett 2020; 23:588-597. [PMID: 31970918 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13459] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2019] [Accepted: 12/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor-analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual-based demography from yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive-status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi-extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.,Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Campus de Bellaterra (UAB) Edifici C, ES-08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Kenneth B Armitage
- Ecology & Evolutionary Biology Department, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, 66045-7534, USA
| | - Daniel T Blumstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.,The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO, 81224, USA
| | - Julien G A Martin
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.,Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1N 9A7, Canada
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland
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25
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Woestmann L, Stucki D, Saastamoinen M. Life history alterations upon oral and hemocoelic bacterial exposure in the butterfly Melitaea cinxia. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:10665-10680. [PMID: 31624574 PMCID: PMC6787844 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5586] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2019] [Revised: 07/29/2019] [Accepted: 07/30/2019] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Life history strategies often shape biological interactions by specifying the parameters for possible encounters, such as the timing, frequency, or way of exposure to parasites. Consequentially, alterations in life-history strategies are closely intertwined with such interaction processes. Understanding the connection between life-history alterations and host-parasite interactions can therefore be important to unveil potential links between adaptation to environmental change and changes in interaction processes. Here, we studied how two different host-parasite interaction processes, oral and hemocoelic exposure to bacteria, affect various life histories of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia. We either fed or injected adult butterflies with the bacterium Micrococcus luteus and observed for differences in immune defenses, reproductive life histories, and longevity, compared to control exposures. Our results indicate differences in how female butterflies adapt to the two exposure types. Orally infected females showed a reduction in clutch size and an earlier onset of reproduction, whereas a reduction in egg weight was observed for hemocoelically exposed females. Both exposure types also led to shorter intervals between clutches and a reduced life span. These results indicate a relationship between host-parasite interactions and changes in life-history strategies. This relationship could cast restrictions on the ability to adapt to new environments and consequentially influence the population dynamics of a species in changing environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luisa Woestmann
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research ProgrammeFaculty of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Dimitri Stucki
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research ProgrammeFaculty of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research ProgrammeFaculty of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
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26
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Millon A, Lambin X, Devillard S, Schaub M. Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics: a review of methods, evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2019; 94:2049-2067. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Revised: 07/10/2019] [Accepted: 07/17/2019] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Millon
- Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, IMBE, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Technopôle Arbois‐Méditerranée, Bât. Villemin – BP 80 F‐13545 Aix‐en‐Provence cedex 04 France
| | - Xavier Lambin
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Aberdeen Tillydrone Avenue, Zoology Building, University of Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ Aberdeen U.K
| | - Sébastien Devillard
- Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive F‐69100 Villeurbanne France
| | - Michael Schaub
- Swiss Ornithological Institute Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach Switzerland
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27
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Belk MC, Tuckfield RC. Demography of an endangered, long‐lived fish: Informing management options in the face of cyclic and stochastic climate variation. POPUL ECOL 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.12005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mark C. Belk
- Department of BiologyBrigham Young University Provo Utah
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28
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Increasing drought favors nonnative fishes in a dryland river: evidence from a multispecies demographic model. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023] Open
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29
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March-Salas M, Fitze PS. A multi-year experiment shows that lower precipitation predictability encourages plants' early life stages and enhances population viability. PeerJ 2019; 7:e6443. [PMID: 30867983 PMCID: PMC6410692 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.6443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2018] [Accepted: 01/14/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is a key factor that may cause the extinction of species. The associated reduced weather predictability may alter the survival of plants, especially during their early life stages, when individuals are most fragile. While it is expected that extreme weather events will be highly detrimental for species, the effects of more subtle environmental changes have been little considered. In a four-year experiment on two herbaceous plants, Papaver rhoeas and Onobrychis viciifolia, we manipulated the predictability of precipitation by changing the temporal correlation of precipitation events while maintaining average precipitation constant, leading to more and less predictable treatments. We assessed the effect of predictability on plant viability in terms of seedling emergence, survival, seed production, and population growth rate. We found greater seedling emergence, survival, and population growth for plants experiencing lower intra-seasonal predictability, but more so during early compared to late life stages. Since predictability levels were maintained across four generations, we have also tested whether descendants exhibited transgenerational responses to previous predictability conditions. In P. rhoeas, descendants had increased the seedling emergence compared to ancestors under both treatments, but more so under lower precipitation predictability. However, higher predictability in the late treatment induced higher survival in descendants, showing that these conditions may benefit long-term survival. This experiment highlights the ability of some plants to rapidly exploit environmental resources and increase their survival under less predictable conditions, especially during early life stages. Therefore, this study provides relevant evidence of the survival capacity of some species under current and future short-term environmental alterations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martí March-Salas
- Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.,Department of Biodiversity and Ecologic Restoration, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Jaca, Spain.,Escuela Internacional de Doctorado, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Patrick S Fitze
- Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, Spain.,Department of Biodiversity and Ecologic Restoration, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Jaca, Spain
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Kissel AM, Palen WJ, Ryan ME, Adams MJ. Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01832. [PMID: 30589982 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2017] [Revised: 09/23/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λs ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λs will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amanda M Kissel
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5K 4B2, Canada
- Conservation Science Partners, 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, California, 96161, USA
| | - Wendy J Palen
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5K 4B2, Canada
| | - Maureen E Ryan
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5K 4B2, Canada
- Conservation Science Partners, 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, California, 96161, USA
| | - Michael J Adams
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, Oregon, 97300, USA
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31
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Christie KS, Hollmen TE, Flint P, Douglas D. Non-linear effect of sea ice: Spectacled Eider survival declines at both extremes of the ice spectrum. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:11808-11818. [PMID: 30598778 PMCID: PMC6303746 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2018] [Revised: 08/21/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species' response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather-related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice-free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice-free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice-free. Considerable uncertainty around parameter estimates for survival in years with minimal sea ice contributed to variation in stochastic projections of future population size, and this uncertainty could be reduced with additional survival data from low-ice winters.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tuula E. Hollmen
- The Alaska SeaLife CenterSewardAlaska
- The College of Fisheries and Ocean SciencesUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAlaska
| | - Paul Flint
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science CenterAnchorageAlaska
| | - David Douglas
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science CenterJuneauAlaska
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32
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Desprez M, Jenouvrier S, Barbraud C, Delord K, Weimerskirch H. Linking oceanographic conditions, migratory schedules and foraging behaviour during the non‐breeding season to reproductive performance in a long‐lived seabird. Funct Ecol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marine Desprez
- Biology Department MS‐50 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole Massachusetts
| | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department MS‐50 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole Massachusetts
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 CNRS/Université La Rochelle Villiers en Bois France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 CNRS/Université La Rochelle Villiers en Bois France
| | - Henri Weimerskirch
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé UMR 7372 CNRS/Université La Rochelle Villiers en Bois France
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33
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Reid JM, Travis JMJ, Daunt F, Burthe SJ, Wanless S, Dytham C. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2018; 93:1578-1603. [PMID: 29575449 PMCID: PMC6849584 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2017] [Revised: 02/17/2018] [Accepted: 02/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature. Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane M Reid
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, U.K
| | - Justin M J Travis
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, U.K
| | - Francis Daunt
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, U.K
| | - Sarah J Burthe
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, U.K
| | - Sarah Wanless
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, EH26 0QB, U.K
| | - Calvin Dytham
- Department of Biology, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, U.K
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34
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Bovyn RA, McCauley E, LaMontagne JM. Offspring size-number tradeoffs and food quality feedbacks impact population dynamics in a Daphnia-
algae system. OIKOS 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.04788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ryan A. Bovyn
- Dept of Biological Sciences; College of Science and Health, DePaul Univ.; 2325 N. Clifton Ave. Chicago IL 60614 USA
| | - Edward McCauley
- Dept of Biological Sciences; Univ. of Calgary; Calgary AB Canada
| | - Jalene M. LaMontagne
- Dept of Biological Sciences; College of Science and Health, DePaul Univ.; 2325 N. Clifton Ave. Chicago IL 60614 USA
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35
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Chevalier M, Comte L, Laffaille P, Grenouillet G. Interactions between species attributes explain population dynamics in stream fishes under changing climate. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- UMR5174 Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA 118 route de Narbonne F‐31062 Toulouse France
- Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Box 7044 750 07 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Lise Comte
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington 1122 NE Boat St Seattle Washington 98105 USA
| | - Pascal Laffaille
- CNRS, UMR5245 Ecolab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), ENSAT Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, INP Avenue de l'Agrobiopole 31326 Castanet Tolosan France
| | - Gaël Grenouillet
- UMR5174 Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA 118 route de Narbonne F‐31062 Toulouse France
- Institut Universitaire de France 1 rue Descartes 75231 Paris France
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36
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Arlt D, Pärt T. Marked reduction in demographic rates and reduced fitness advantage for early breeding is not linked to reduced thermal matching of breeding time. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:10782-10796. [PMID: 29299257 PMCID: PMC5743537 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2017] [Revised: 10/02/2017] [Accepted: 10/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Warmer springs may cause animals to become mistimed if advances of spring timing, including available resources and of timing of breeding occur at different speed. We used thermal sums (cumulative sum of degree days) during spring to describe the thermal progression (timing) of spring and investigate its relationship to breeding phenology and demography of a long-distant migrant bird, the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe L.). We first compare 20-year trends in spring timing, breeding time, selection for breeding time, and annual demographic rates. We then explicitly test whether annual variation in selection for breeding time and demographic rates associates with the degree of phenological matching between breeding time and thermal progression of spring. Both thermal progression of spring and breeding time of wheatears advanced in time during the study period. But despite breeding on average 7 days earlier with respect to date, wheatears bred about 4 days later with respect to thermal spring progression. Over the same time period, selection for breeding time changed from distinct within-season advantage of breeding early to no or very weak advantage. Furthermore, demographic rates (nest success, fledgling production, recruitment, adult survival) and nestling weight declined markedly by 16%-79%. Those temporal trends suggest that a reduced degree of phenological matching may affect within-season fitness advantage of early breeding and population demographic rates. In contrast, when we investigate links based on annual variation, we find no significant relationship between either demographic rates or fitness advantage of early breeding with annual variation in the degree of phenological matching. Our results show that corresponding temporal trends in phenological matching, selection for breeding time and demographic rates are inconclusive evidence for demographic effects of changed phenological matching. Instead, we suggest that the trends in selection for breeding time and demographic rates are due to a general deterioration of the breeding environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debora Arlt
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Tomas Pärt
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
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37
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How to Tackle Natural Focal Infections: From Risk Assessment to Vaccination Strategies. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2017; 972:7-16. [PMID: 28213810 DOI: 10.1007/5584_2016_199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/27/2023]
Abstract
Natural focal diseases are caused by biological agents associated with specific landscapes. The natural focus of such diseases is defined as any natural ecosystem containing the pathogen's population as an essential component. In such context, the agent circulates independently on human presence, and humans may become accidentally infected through contact with vectors or reservoirs. Some viruses (i.e., tick-borne encephalitis and Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever virus) are paradigmatic examples of natural focal diseases. When environmental changes, increase of reservoir/vector populations, demographic pressure, and/or changes in human behavior occur, increased risk of exposure to the pathogen may lead to clusters of cases or even to larger outbreaks. Intervention is often not highly cost-effective, thus only a few examples of large-scale or even targeted vaccination campaigns are reported in the international literature. To develop intervention models, risk assessment through disease mapping is an essential component of the response against these neglected threats and key to the design of prevention strategies, especially when effective vaccines against the disease are available.
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38
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Bowler DE, Haase P, Hof C, Kröncke I, Baert L, Dekoninck W, Domisch S, Hendrickx F, Hickler T, Neumann H, O'Hara RB, Sell AF, Sonnewald M, Stoll S, Türkay M, van Klink R, Schweiger O, Vermeulen R, Böhning-Gaese K. Cross-taxa generalities in the relationship between population abundance and ambient temperatures. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:rspb.2017.0870. [PMID: 28931734 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2017] [Accepted: 08/22/2017] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Identifying patterns in the effects of temperature on species' population abundances could help develop a general framework for predicting the consequences of climate change across different communities and realms. We used long-term population time series data from terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species communities within central Europe to compare the effects of temperature on abundance across a broad range of taxonomic groups. We asked whether there was an average relationship between temperatures in different seasons and annual abundances of species in a community, and whether species attributes (temperature range of distribution, range size, habitat breadth, dispersal ability, body size, and lifespan) explained interspecific variation in the relationship between temperature and abundance. We found that, on average, warmer winter temperatures were associated with greater abundances in terrestrial communities (ground beetles, spiders, and birds) but not always in aquatic communities (freshwater and marine invertebrates and fish). The abundances of species with large geographical ranges, larger body sizes, and longer lifespans tended to be less related to temperature. Our results suggest that climate change may have, in general, positive effects on species' abundances within many terrestrial communities in central Europe while the effects are less predictable in aquatic communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana E Bowler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Peter Haase
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany.,Faculty of Biology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Christian Hof
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Ingrid Kröncke
- Department of Marine Research, Senckenberg am Meer, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Léon Baert
- Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
| | | | - Sami Domisch
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.,Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Thomas Hickler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.,Institute of Physical Geography, Geosciences, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Hermann Neumann
- Department of Marine Research, Senckenberg am Meer, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Robert B O'Hara
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.,Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Anne F Sell
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Moritz Sonnewald
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Stefan Stoll
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany.,Department of Environmental Planning and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Trier, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Neubrücke, Germany
| | - Michael Türkay
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Roel van Klink
- Division of Conservation Biology, University of Bern, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Oliver Schweiger
- Department of Community Ecology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.,Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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39
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Jan PL, Farcy O, Boireau J, Le Texier E, Baudoin A, Le Gouar P, Puechmaille SJ, Petit EJ. Which temporal resolution to consider when investigating the impact of climatic data on population dynamics? The case of the lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros). Oecologia 2017; 184:749-761. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-017-3901-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2016] [Accepted: 06/13/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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40
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Hayes MA, Adams RA. Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0180693. [PMID: 28686737 PMCID: PMC5501592 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes) populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models) and throughout western North America (General Models). Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%), 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%), and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%). All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%). These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Hayes
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Rick A Adams
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, Colorado, United States of America
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41
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Pardo D, Jenouvrier S, Weimerskirch H, Barbraud C. Effect of extreme sea surface temperature events on the demography of an age-structured albatross population. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:20160143. [PMID: 28483873 PMCID: PMC5434094 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/07/2017] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate changes include concurrent changes in environmental mean, variance and extremes, and it is challenging to understand their respective impact on wild populations, especially when contrasted age-dependent responses to climate occur. We assessed how changes in mean and standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST), frequency and magnitude of warm SST extreme climatic events (ECE) influenced the stochastic population growth rate log(λs) and age structure of a black-browed albatross population. For changes in SST around historical levels observed since 1982, changes in standard deviation had a larger (threefold) and negative impact on log(λs) compared to changes in mean. By contrast, the mean had a positive impact on log(λs). The historical SST mean was lower than the optimal SST value for which log(λs) was maximized. Thus, a larger environmental mean increased the occurrence of SST close to this optimum that buffered the negative effect of ECE. This 'climate safety margin' (i.e. difference between optimal and historical climatic conditions) and the specific shape of the population growth rate response to climate for a species determine how ECE affect the population. For a wider range in SST, both the mean and standard deviation had negative impact on log(λs), with changes in the mean having a greater effect than the standard deviation. Furthermore, around SST historical levels increases in either mean or standard deviation of the SST distribution led to a younger population, with potentially important conservation implications for black-browed albatrosses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deborah Pardo
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 CNRS, 79360 Villiers-en-Bois, France
- British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
| | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 CNRS, 79360 Villiers-en-Bois, France
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Mailstop 50, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Henri Weimerskirch
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 CNRS, 79360 Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 CNRS, 79360 Villiers-en-Bois, France
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van de Pol M, Jenouvrier S, Cornelissen JHC, Visser ME. Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:20160134. [PMID: 28483865 PMCID: PMC5434086 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/17/2017] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martijn van de Pol
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2610, Australia
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), 6708PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 CNRS/Univ La Rochelle, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Johannes H C Cornelissen
- Systems Ecology, Department of Ecological Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, 1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), 6708PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
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43
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Huntsman BM, Falke JA, Savereide JW, Bennett KE. The role of density-dependent and -independent processes in spawning habitat selection by salmon in an Arctic riverscape. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0177467. [PMID: 28531202 PMCID: PMC5439693 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2016] [Accepted: 04/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Density-dependent (DD) and density-independent (DI) habitat selection is strongly linked to a species’ evolutionary history. Determining the relative importance of each is necessary because declining populations are not always the result of altered DI mechanisms but can often be the result of DD via a reduced carrying capacity. We developed spatially and temporally explicit models throughout the Chena River, Alaska to predict important DI mechanisms that influence Chinook salmon spawning success. We used resource-selection functions to predict suitable spawning habitat based on geomorphic characteristics, a semi-distributed water-and-energy balance hydrologic model to generate stream flow metrics, and modeled stream temperature as a function of climatic variables. Spawner counts were predicted throughout the core and periphery spawning sections of the Chena River from escapement estimates (DD) and DI variables. Additionally, we used isodar analysis to identify whether spawners actively defend spawning habitat or follow an ideal free distribution along the riverscape. Aerial counts were best explained by escapement and reference to the core or periphery, while no models with DI variables were supported in the candidate set. Furthermore, isodar plots indicated habitat selection was best explained by ideal free distributions, although there was strong evidence for active defense of core spawning habitat. Our results are surprising, given salmon commonly defend spawning resources, and are likely due to competition occurring at finer spatial scales than addressed in this study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brock M. Huntsman
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Jeffrey A. Falke
- U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - James W. Savereide
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Sport Fish, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Katrina E. Bennett
- Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
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44
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Tuffa S, Treydte AC. Modeling Boran cattle populations under climate change and varying carrying capacity. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Vindenes Y, Engen S. Demographic stochasticity and temporal autocorrelation in the dynamics of structured populations. OIKOS 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.03958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yngvild Vindenes
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Dept of Biosciences, Univ. of Oslo; Oslo Norway
| | - Steinar Engen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Dept of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; Trondheim Norway
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46
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Powell EC, Taylor LA. Specialists and generalists coexist within a population of spider-hunting mud dauber wasps. Behav Ecol 2017; 28:890-898. [PMID: 29622922 PMCID: PMC5873241 DOI: 10.1093/beheco/arx050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2016] [Revised: 03/06/2017] [Accepted: 03/14/2017] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Individual foraging specialization describes the phenomenon where conspecifics within a population of generalists exhibit differences in foraging behavior, each specializing on different prey types. Individual specialization is widespread in animals, yet is understudied in invertebrates, despite potential impacts to food web and population dynamics. Sceliphron caementarium (Hymenoptera: Sphecidae) is an excellent system to examine individual specialization. Females of these mud dauber wasps capture and paralyze spiders which they store in mud nests to provision their offspring. Individuals may make hundreds of prey choices in their short lifespan and fully intact prey items can be easily excavated from their mud nests, where each distinct nest cell represents a discrete foraging bout. Using data collected from a single population of S. caementarium (where all individuals had access to the same resources), we found evidence of strong individual specialization; individuals utilized different resources (with respect to prey taxa, prey ecological guild, and prey size) to provision their nests. The extent of individual specialization differed widely within the population with some females displaying extreme specialization (taking only prey from a single species) while others were generalists (taking prey from up to 6 spider families). We also found evidence of temporal consistency in individual specialization over multiple foraging events. We discuss these findings broadly in the context of search images, responses to changing prey availability, and intraspecific competition pressure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin C Powell
- Entomology and Nematology Department, University of Florida, 1881 Natural Area Drive, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, 3A Symonds St, Auckland Central 1010, New Zealand, and
| | - Lisa A Taylor
- Entomology and Nematology Department, University of Florida, 1881 Natural Area Drive, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.,Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, 3215 Hull Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
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47
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Maslo B, Schlacher TA, Weston MA, Huijbers CM, Anderson C, Gilby BL, Olds AD, Connolly RM, Schoeman DS. Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds. PeerJ 2016; 4:e2460. [PMID: 27672510 PMCID: PMC5028745 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.2460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/18/2016] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. ‘Topographic’ exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brooke Maslo
- Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey , New Brunswick , NJ , United States
| | - Thomas A Schlacher
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
| | - Michael A Weston
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, Deakin University , Geelong , Australia
| | - Chantal M Huijbers
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
| | - Chris Anderson
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
| | - Ben L Gilby
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
| | - Andrew D Olds
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
| | - Rod M Connolly
- Australian Rivers Institute - Coast & Estuaries, and School of Environment, Griffith University , Gold Coast , Queensland , Australia
| | - David S Schoeman
- School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast , Maroochydore , Australia
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48
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Cherry SG, Derocher AE, Lunn NJ. Habitat-mediated timing of migration in polar bears: an individual perspective. Ecol Evol 2016; 6:5032-42. [PMID: 27547331 PMCID: PMC4979725 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2015] [Revised: 05/12/2016] [Accepted: 05/16/2016] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Migration phenology is largely determined by how animals respond to seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Our perception of the relationship between migratory behavior and environmental cues can vary depending on the spatial scale at which these interactions are measured. Understanding the behavioral mechanisms behind population‐scale movements requires knowledge of how individuals respond to local cues. We show how time‐to‐event models can be used to predict what factors are associated with the timing of an individual's migratory behavior using data from GPS collared polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that move seasonally between sea ice and terrestrial habitats. We found the concentration of sea ice that bears experience at a local level, along with the duration of exposure to these conditions, was most associated with individual migration timing. Our results corroborate studies that assume thresholds of >50% sea ice concentration are necessary for suitable polar bear habitat; however, continued periods (e.g., days to weeks) of exposure to suboptimal ice concentrations during seasonal melting were required before the proportion of bears migrating to land increased substantially. Time‐to‐event models are advantageous for examining individual movement patterns because they account for the idea that animals make decisions based on an accumulation of knowledge from the landscapes they move through and not simply the environment they are exposed to at the time of a decision. Understanding the migration behavior of polar bears moving between terrestrial and marine habitat, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, will be a major aspect of quantifying observed and potential demographic responses to climate‐induced environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seth G Cherry
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton AB T6G 2E9 Canada
| | - Andrew E Derocher
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton AB T6G 2E9 Canada
| | - Nicholas J Lunn
- Environment and Climate Change Canada University of Alberta CW405 Biological Sciences Building Edmonton AB T6G 2E9 Canada
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49
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Sæther BE, Grøtan V, Engen S, Coulson T, Grant PR, Visser ME, Brommer JE, Rosemary Grant B, Gustafsson L, Hatchwell BJ, Jerstad K, Karell P, Pietiäinen H, Roulin A, Røstad OW, Weimerskirch H. Demographic routes to variability and regulation in bird populations. Nat Commun 2016; 7:12001. [PMID: 27328710 PMCID: PMC4917965 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2015] [Accepted: 05/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
There is large interspecific variation in the magnitude of population fluctuations, even among closely related species. The factors generating this variation are not well understood, primarily because of the challenges of separating the relative impact of variation in population size from fluctuations in the environment. Here, we show using demographic data from 13 bird populations that magnitudes of fluctuations in population size are mainly driven by stochastic fluctuations in the environment. Regulation towards an equilibrium population size occurs through density-dependent mortality. At small population sizes, population dynamics are primarily driven by environment-driven variation in recruitment, whereas close to the carrying capacity K, variation in population growth is more strongly influenced by density-dependent mortality of both juveniles and adults. Our results provide evidence for the hypothesis proposed by Lack that population fluctuations in birds arise from temporal variation in the difference between density-independent recruitment and density-dependent mortality during the non-breeding season.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernt-Erik Sæther
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Vidar Grøtan
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Steinar Engen
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, OX1 3PS Oxford, UK
| | - Peter R. Grant
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA
| | - Marcel E. Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jon E. Brommer
- Department of Biology, University Hill, University of Turku, FI-02700 Turku, Finland
| | - B. Rosemary Grant
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA
| | - Lars Gustafsson
- Department of Animal Ecology, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18D, SE-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Ben J. Hatchwell
- Department of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
| | | | - Patrik Karell
- Department of Biosciences, Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-02700 Turku, Finland
- Coastal Zone Research Team, Novia University of Applied Sciences, Raseborgsvägen 9, FI-10600 Ekenäs, Finland
| | - Hannu Pietiäinen
- Bird Ecology Unit, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alexandre Roulin
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Biophore, University of Lausannne, 1024 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Ole W. Røstad
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, NO-1432, Ås, Norway
| | - Henri Weimerskirch
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-UPR 1934, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France
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50
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Stephens PA, Mason LR, Green RE, Gregory RD, Sauer JR, Alison J, Aunins A, Brotons L, Butchart SHM, Campedelli T, Chodkiewicz T, Chylarecki P, Crowe O, Elts J, Escandell V, Foppen RPB, Heldbjerg H, Herrando S, Husby M, Jiguet F, Lehikoinen A, Lindström Å, Noble DG, Paquet JY, Reif J, Sattler T, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Trautmann S, van Strien AJ, van Turnhout CAM, Vorisek P, Willis SG. Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science 2016; 352:84-7. [PMID: 27034371 DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 107] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2015] [Accepted: 02/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philip A Stephens
- Conservation Ecology Group, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Lucy R Mason
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK
| | - Rhys E Green
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK. Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Richard D Gregory
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK
| | - John R Sauer
- United States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, USA
| | - Jamie Alison
- Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK
| | - Ainars Aunins
- Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, Jelgavas iela 1, Riga, LV-1004, Latvia
| | - Lluís Brotons
- Center for Mediterranean Forest Research, Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya, InForest JRU, Solsona 25280, Spain. REAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain. CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Stuart H M Butchart
- Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Tommaso Campedelli
- MITO2000 National Committee; c/o Dream Italia, Via Garibaldi 3, 52015, Pratovecchio-Stia, Arezzo, Italy
| | - Tomasz Chodkiewicz
- Ogólnopolskie Towarzystwo Ochrony Ptaków, Odrowąża 24,05-270 Marki, Poland
| | - Przemysław Chylarecki
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679 Warszawa, Poland
| | - Olivia Crowe
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20 Block D Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Jaanus Elts
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise Street 46, 51014 Tartu, Estonia. Estonian Ornithological Society, Veski 4, 51005 Tartu, Estonia
| | - Virginia Escandell
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología/BirdLife Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053 Madrid. Spain
| | - Ruud P B Foppen
- European Bird Census Council, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Post Office Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Henning Heldbjerg
- Dansk Ornitologisk Forening-BirdLife Denmark and University of Aarhus, Vesterbrogade 140, 1620 København V, Denmark
| | - Sergi Herrando
- European Bird Census Council-Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Magne Husby
- Section for Science, Nord University, 7600 Levanger, Norway
| | - Frédéric Jiguet
- UMR7204 Sorbonne Universités-MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, CESCO, CRBPO, CP 135, 43 Rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, Post Office Box 17, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Åke Lindström
- Biodiversity Unit, Department of Biology, Lund University, Ecology Building, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - David G Noble
- The British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK
| | - Jean-Yves Paquet
- Natagora, Département Études, Rue Nanon 98, B-5000 Namur, Belgium
| | - Jiri Reif
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic. Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17 Listopadu 50, 771 43 Olomouc, Czech Republic
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Tibor Szép
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Nyíregyháza, Sóstói út 31/b, 4400 Nyíregyháza, Hungary
| | | | - Sven Trautmann
- Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten e.V. (Federation of German Avifaunists), An den Speichern 6, D-48157 Münster, Germany
| | - Arco J van Strien
- Statistics Netherlands, Post Office Box 24500, 2490 HA The Hague, Netherlands
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Post Office Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Petr Vorisek
- Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17 Listopadu 50, 771 43 Olomouc, Czech Republic. Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 252/34, CZ-15000 Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Stephen G Willis
- Conservation Ecology Group, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
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