Pollinator peaking earlier than flowering is more detrimental to plant fecundity

Climate change has caused asynchronous phenological shifts between most plants and their pollinators, resulting in an earlier or later appearance of peak flowering relative to peak pollinator abundance. The fitness impact of these two mismatch patterns may not be simply equivalent, but the information has so far been limited. To explore how differently plant fitness responds to the distinct mismatch patterns, we conducted a seed-setting comparative study at the individual level in an alpine grassland community in the Qilian Mountains of China. By monitoring flowering abundance and insect visits, we measured the phenological matching relationship between plants and their key pollinators, and evaluated the impact of mismatches on plant productivity. We found that the pattern of "pollinator peaks earlier" accounted for a relatively high proportion in the natural community, with a significantly stronger fitness impact on plants than that of the "flower peaks earlier" pattern. The asymmetry in the fitness impacts between phenological mismatch patterns is related to the length of flowering period. Specially, the shorter the flowering duration, the greater the difference in influence between the two patterns. Our results suggest that plants with shorter flowering periods may be confronted with more severe pollination limitations if climate warming cause insects to forage further ahead. Therefore, the asymmetric effects of phenological mismatch patterns should be considered in phenological models to improve the predictive performance of plant responses to climate change.

Is Joint Management between Conservationists and Farmers Sustainable and Biodiversity-friendly? A Ten-year Study in Residual Grasslands of a Protected Area

In recent decades, there has been a discernible reduction in temperate and Mediterranean grasslands with consequences on the decline of biodiversity and landscape heterogeneity. When this decline is due to agricultural abandonment, a renewed joint management, combining bush clearing by conservationists and grazing by farmers, should favor the maintenance of grasslands, their protected habitats and species and forage production. Rainfall irregularity explains part of the variation of these parameters. To verify these hypotheses, we conduct a comprehensive, multi-scale, multi-taxa study over a ten-year period in a Mediterranean protected area. At the regional scale, experimental plots in which this joint management was implemented are representative of residual managed grasslands of the protected area. At the mesoscale, rainfall irregularity is the main factor explaining inter-annual differences in the biomass of open landscapes, while fauna depends on management, tree cover and trophic resources. At the local scale, in a representative experimental plot, clearing had an immediate negative impact on plant richness and bird and positive on forage. Over a decade, plant biodiversity increased while forage, specialist plants and bird maintained, despite the regrowth of bush. Drought had a negative impact on richness, plant and forage abundance and phenological asynchrony on butterflies. In conclusion, joint management has positive, neutral and negative impacts to be considered before implementing this strategy. This long-term monitoring study draws important lessons for designing a sustainable management of grasslands under abandonment and irregular climate, that should be applied in temperate and Mediterranean regions that are increasingly vulnerable to these trends.

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Multi-locus genomic signatures of local adaptation to snow across the landscape in California populations of a willow leaf beetle

Organisms living in mountains contend with extreme climatic conditions, including short growing seasons and long winters with extensive snow cover. Anthropogenic climate change is driving unprecedented, rapid warming of montane regions across the globe, resulting in reduced winter snowpack. Loss of snow as a thermal buffer may have serious consequences for animals overwintering in soil, yet little is known about how variability in snowpack acts as a selective agent in montane ecosystems. Here, we examine genomic variation in California populations of the leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis, an emerging natural model system for understanding how organisms respond to climate change. We used a genotype-environment association approach to identify genomic signatures of local adaptation to microclimate in populations from three montane regions with variable snowpack and a coastal region with no snow. We found that both winter-associated environmental variation and geographical distance contribute to overall genomic variation across the landscape. We identified non-synonymous variation in novel candidate loci associated with cytoskeletal function, ion transport and membrane stability, cellular processes associated with cold tolerance in other insects. These findings provide intriguing evidence that variation in snowpack imposes selective gradients in montane ecosystems.

Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species

The first comprehensive species distribution models for orchid, its fungal symbionts and pollinator are presented. To evaluate impact of global warming on these organisms three different projections and four various climate change scenarios were analysed. The niche modelling was based on presence-only records of Limodorum abortivum, two species of Russula and three insects pollinating orchid (Anthophora affinis, Bombus terrestris, Rhodanthidium septemdentatum). Two sets of orchid predictions were examined-the first one included only climatic data and the second one was based on climate data and data on future distribution of orchid fungal symbionts. Overall, a poleward range shift is predicted to occur as a result of climate change and apparently global warming will be favorable for L. abortivum and its potential geographical range will expand. However, due to the negative effect of global warming on fungal symbionts of L. abortivum, the actual extension of the suitable niches of the orchid will be much limited. Considering future possibility of cross-pollination, the availability of A. affinis for L. abortivum will decrease and this bee will be available in the worst case scenarios only for 21% of orchid populations. On the other hand, the overlap of orchid and the buff-tailed bumblebee will increase and as much as 86.5% of plant populations will be located within B. terrestris potential range. Also the availability of R. septemdentatum will be higher than currently observed in almost all analysed climate change projections. This study showed the importance of inclusion of ecological factors in species distribution models as the climate data itself are not enough to estimate the future distribution of plant species. Moreover, the availability of pollen vectors which is crucial for long-term survival of orchid populations should be analysed in context of climate changes.

Differences in individual flowering time change pollen limitation and seed set in three montane wildflowers

PREMISE

Changes to flowering time caused by climate change could affects plant fecundity, but studies that compare the individual-level responses of phenologically distinct, co-occurring species are lacking. We assessed how variation in floral phenology affects the fecundity of individuals from three montane species with different seasonal flowering times, including in snowmelt acceleration treatments to increase variability in phenology.

METHODS

We collected floral phenology and seed set data for individuals of three montane plant species (Mertensia fusiformis, Delphinium nuttallianum, Potentilla pulcherrima). To examine the drivers of seed set, we measured conspecific floral density and conducted pollen limitation experiments to isolate pollination function. We advanced the phenology of plant communities in a controlled large-scale snowmelt acceleration experiment.

RESULTS

Differences in individual phenology relative to the rest of the population affected fecundity in our focal species, but effects were species-specific. For our early-season species, individuals that bloomed later than the population peak bloom had increased fecundity, while for our midseason species, simply blooming before or after the population peak increased individual fecundity. For our late-season species, blooming earlier than the population peak increased fecundity. The early and midseason species were pollen-limited, and conspecific density affected seed set only for our early-season species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that variation in individual phenology affects fecundity in three phenologically distinct montane species, and that pollen limitation may be more influential than conspecific density. Our results suggest that individual-level changes in phenology are important to consider for understanding plant reproductive success.

Ecological traits explain long-term phenological trends in solitary bees

Across taxa, the timing of life-history events (phenology) is changing in response to warming temperatures. However, little is known about drivers of variation in phenological trends among species. We analysed 168 years of museum specimen and sighting data to evaluate the patterns of phenological change in 70 species of solitary bees that varied in three ecological traits: diet breadth (generalist or specialist), seasonality (spring, summer or fall) and nesting location (above-ground or below-ground). We estimated changes in onset, median, end and duration of each bee species' annual activity (flight duration) using quantile regression. To determine whether ecological traits could explain phenological trends, we compared average trends across species groups that differed in a single trait. We expected that specialist bees would be constrained by their host plants' phenology and would show weaker phenological change than generalist species. We expected phenological advances in spring and delays in summer and fall. Lastly, we expected stronger shifts in above-ground versus below-ground nesters. Across all species, solitary bees have advanced their phenology by 0.43 days/decade. Since 1970, this advancement has increased fourfold to 1.62 days/decade. Solitary bees have also lengthened their flight period by 0.44 days/decade. Seasonality and nesting location explained variation in trends among species. Spring- and summer-active bees tended to advance their phenology, whereas fall-active bees tended to delay. Above-ground nesting species experienced stronger advances than below-ground nesting bees in spring; however, the opposite was true in summer. Diet breadth was not associated with patterns of phenological change. Our study has two key implications. First, an increasing activity period of bees across the flight season means that bee communities will potentially provide pollination services for a longer period of time during the year. And, since phenological trends in solitary bees can be explained by some ecological traits, our study provides insight into mechanisms underpinning population viability of insect pollinators in a changing world.

Current and lagged climate affects phenology across diverse taxonomic groups

The timing of life events (phenology) can be influenced by climate. Studies from around the world tell us that climate cues and species' responses can vary greatly. If variation in climate effects on phenology is strong within a single ecosystem, climate change could lead to ecological disruption, but detailed data from diverse taxa within a single ecosystem are rare. We collated first sighting and median activity within a high-elevation environment for plants, insects, birds, mammals and an amphibian across 45 years (1975-2020). We related 10 812 phenological events to climate data to determine the relative importance of climate effects on species' phenologies. We demonstrate significant variation in climate-phenology linkage across taxa in a single ecosystem. Both current and prior climate predicted changes in phenology. Taxa responded to some cues similarly, such as snowmelt date and spring temperatures; other cues affected phenology differently. For example, prior summer precipitation had no effect on most plants, delayed first activity of some insects, but advanced activity of the amphibian, some mammals, and birds. Comparing phenological responses of taxa at a single location, we find that important cues often differ among taxa, suggesting that changes to climate may disrupt synchrony of timing among taxa.

Selection against early flowering in geothermally heated soils is associated with pollen but not prey availability in a carnivorous plant

PREMISE

In high-latitude environments, plastic responses of phenology to increasing spring temperatures allow plants to extend growing seasons while avoiding late frosts. However, evolved plasticity might become maladaptive if climatic conditions change and spring temperatures no longer provide reliable cues for conditions important for fitness. Maladaptative phenological responses might be related to both abiotic factors and mismatches with interacting species. When mismatches arise, we expect selection to favor changes in phenology.

METHODS

We combined observations along a soil temperature gradient in a geothermally heated area with pollen and prey supplementation experiments and examined how phenotypic selection on flowering time in the carnivorous plant Pinguicula vulgaris depends on soil temperature, and pollen and prey availability.

RESULTS

Flowering advanced and fitness decreased with increasing soil temperature. However, in pollen-supplemented plants, fitness instead increased with soil temperature. In heated soils, there was selection favoring later flowering, while earlier flowering was favored in unheated soils. This pattern remained also after artificially increasing pollen and prey availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-pollinator mismatches can be an important reason why evolved plastic responses of flowering time to increasing spring temperatures become maladaptive under novel environmental conditions, and why there is selection to delay flowering. In our study, selection for later flowering remained after artificially increasing pollen availability, suggesting that abiotic factors also contribute to the observed selection. Identifying the factors that make evolved phenological responses maladaptive under novel conditions is fundamental for understanding and predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Climate driven disruption of transitional alpine bumble bee communities

Pollinators at high elevations face multiple threats from climate change including heat stress, failure to phenological match advancing flower resources and competitive pressure from range-expanding species of lower elevations. We conducted long-term multi-site surveys of alpine bumble bees to determine how phenology of range-stable and range-expanding species is responding to climate change. We ask whether bumble bee responses generate mismatches with floral resources, and whether these mismatches in turn promote community disruption and potential species replacement. In alpine environments of the central Rocky Mountains, range-stable and range-expanding bumble bees exhibit phenological mismatches with flowering host plants due to earlier flowering of preferred resources under warmer spring temperatures. However, workers of range-stable species are more canalised in their foraging schedules, exploiting a relatively narrow portion of the flowering season. Specifically, range-stable species show less variance in phenology in response to temporally and spatially changing conditions than range-expanding ones. Because flowering duration drives the seasonal abundance of floral resources at the landscape scale, we hypothesize that canalisation of phenology in alpine bumble bees could reduce their access to earlier or later season flowers. Warmer conditions are decreasing abundances of range-stable alpine bumble bees above the timberline, increasing abundance of range-expanding species, and facilitating a novel and more species-diverse bumble bee community. However, this trend is not explained by greater phenological mismatch of range-stable bees. Results suggest that conversion of historic habitats for cold-adapted alpine bumble bee species into refugia for more heat-tolerant congeners is disrupting bumble bee communities at high elevations, though the precise mechanisms accounting for these changes are not yet known. If warming continues, we predict that the transient increase in diversity due to colonization by historically low-elevation species will likely give way to declines of alpine bumble bees in the central Rocky Mountains.

The ecological implications of intra- and inter-species variation in phenological sensitivity

Plant-pollinator mutualisms rely upon the synchrony of interacting taxa. Climate change can disrupt this synchrony as phenological responses to climate vary within and across species. However, intra- and interspecific variation in phenological responses is seldom considered simultaneously, limiting our understanding of climate change impacts on interactions among taxa across their ranges. We investigated how variation in phenological sensitivity to climate can alter ecological interactions simultaneously within and among species using natural history collections and citizen science data. We focus on a unique system, comprising a wide-ranged spring ephemeral with varying color morphs (Claytonia virginica) and its specialist bee pollinator (Andrena erigeniae). We found strongly opposing trends in the phenological sensitivities of plants vs their pollinators. Flowering phenology was more sensitive to temperature in warmer regions, whereas bee phenology was more responsive in colder regions. Phenological sensitivity varied across flower color morphs. Temporal synchrony between flowering and pollinator activity was predicted to change heterogeneously across the species' ranges in the future. Our work demonstrates the complexity and fragility of ecological interactions in time and the necessity of incorporating variation in phenological responses across multiple axes to understand how such interactions will change in the future.

Phat Queens Emerge Fashionably Late: Body Size and Condition Predict Timing of Spring Emergence for Queen Bumble Bees

For insects, the timing of many life history events (phenology) depends on temperature cues. Body size is a critical mediator of insect responses to temperature, so may also influence phenology. The determinants of spring emergence of bumble bee queens are not well understood, but body size is likely important for several reasons. In fall, queens accumulate energy stores to fuel overwinter survival. Accumulation of fat stores prior to and depletion of fat stores during overwintering are likely size-dependent: larger queens can accumulate more lipids and have lower mass-specific metabolic rates. Therefore, larger queens and queens in relatively better condition may have delayed depletion of energy stores, allowing for later spring emergence. To test whether timing of spring emergence is associated with body size and condition, we captured 295 Bombus huntii queens in Laramie, WY, during the 2020 and 2021 growing seasons, weighed them, and measured intertegular width (a size metric unaffected by variation in feeding and hydration state). Early emerging queens were smaller than later emerging queens across years. Mass relative to intertegular width increased as the season progressed suggesting, as predicted, that body condition influences the timing of spring emergence for these crucial pollinators.

Global analysis of floral longevity reveals latitudinal gradients and biotic and abiotic correlates

The length of time a flower remains open and functional - floral longevity - governs important reproductive processes influencing pollination and mating and varies considerably among angiosperm species. However, little is known about large-scale biogeographic patterns and the correlates of floral longevity. Using published data on floral longevity from 818 angiosperm species in 134 families and 472 locations world-wide, we present the first global quantification of the latitudinal pattern of floral longevity and the relationships between floral longevity and a range of biotic and abiotic factors. Floral longevity exhibited a significant phylogenetic signal and was longer at higher latitudes in both northern and southern hemispheres, even after accounting for elevation. This latitudinal variation was associated with several biotic and abiotic variables. The mean temperature of the flowering season had the highest predictive power for floral longevity, followed by pollen number per flower. Surprisingly, compatibility status, flower size, pollination mode, and growth form had no significant effects on flower longevity. Our results suggest that physiological processes associated with floral maintenance play a key role in explaining latitudinal variation in floral longevity across global ecosystems, with potential implications for floral longevity under global climate change and species distributions.

Heat of the moment: extreme heat poses a risk to bee-plant interactions and crop yields

Extreme heat events threaten the development, functioning, and success of bee pollinators and crops that rely on pollinators for high yields. While direct effects of extreme heat and climate warming have gained more attention, the indirect effects on bees and crops remain largely unexplored. Extreme heat can directly alter the nutritional value of floral rewards, which indirectly contributes to lower bee survival, development, and reproduction with implications for pollination. Phenological mismatches between bee activity and crop flowering are also expected. Heat-stressed crop plants with reduced floral rewards may reduce bee foraging and nesting, limiting pollination services. Understanding how extreme heat affects bee-crop interactions will be essential for resilient production of pollinator-dependent crops in this era of climate change.

Evolution of plant drought strategies and herbivore tolerance after two decades of climate change

Ongoing global warming, coupled with increased drought frequencies, together with other biotic drivers may have resulted in complex evolutionary adaptation. The resurrection approach, comparing ancestors raised from stored seeds with their contemporary descendants under common conditions, is a powerful method to test for recent evolution in plant populations. We used 21-26-yr-old seeds of four European plant species - Matthiola tricuspidata, Plantago crassifolia, Clinopodium vulgare and Leontodon hispidus - stored in seed banks together with re-collected seeds from their wild populations. To test for evolutionary changes, we conducted a glasshouse experiment that quantified heritable changes in plant responses to drought and simulated insect herbivory. In three out of the four studied species, we found evidence that descendants had evolved shorter life cycles through faster growth and flowering. Shifts in the osmotic potential and leaf dry matter content indicated that descendants also evolved increased drought tolerance. A comparison of quantitative genetic differentiation (Q_ST ) vs neutral molecular differentiation (F_ST ) values, using double digest restriction-site associated DNA (ddRAD) genotyping data, suggested that directional selection, and therefore adaptive evolution, was underlying some of the observed phenotypic changes. In summary, our study revealed evolutionary changes in plant populations over the last decades that are consistent with adaptation of drought escape and tolerance as well as herbivory avoidance.

A specialist bee and its host plants experience phenological shifts at different rates in response to climate change

Changes in climate can alter the phenology of organisms, potentially decoupling partners within mutualisms. Previous studies have shown that plant and pollinator phenologies are shifting over time, but these shifts have primarily been documented for generalists and within small geographic regions, and the specific climatic cues regulating these shifts are not well-understood. We examined phenological shifts in a specialist pollinator and its host plant species over a 117-year study period using a digitized dataset of over 4000 unique collection records. We assess how climatic cues regulate these organisms' phenologies using PRISM weather data associated with each record. We tested the hypothesis that rates of phenological change would be greater at northern latitudes. We found that the phenology of the specialist bee pollinator Habropoda laboriosa is changing over time, but at different rates across its range. Specifically, phenology is advancing to a greater degree in more northern populations, with increasing phenological advances of 0.04 days/year with each degree of latitude, and with a delay in phenology in more southern populations. In contrast, only one species in the host plant genus Vaccinium is experiencing phenological change over time. For this plant, rates of change are also variable across latitudes, but in a pattern opposite that of the bee; while phenology is advancing across its range, rates of advance are highest in more southern populations, with decreasing phenological advances of 0.01 days/year with each degree of latitude. The phenologies of both the bee and three of four Vaccinium spp. were regulated primarily by spring temperature, with phenologies overall advancing with increasing temperature, and with the strongest responses shown by the bee in northern populations. Our study provides partial support for the hypothesis that phenologies advance most at northern latitudes, but demonstrates that pollinators and plants do not adhere similarly to this prediction. Additionally, we illustrate the potential for phenological mismatch between a specialist pollinator and its host plants by showing that plants and pollinators are advancing their phenologies at different rates across space and time and with differing responses to changing climatic cues.

Ecological responses to variation in seasonal snow cover

Seasonal snow is among the most important factors governing the ecology of many terrestrial ecosystems, but rising global temperatures are changing snow regimes and driving widespread declines in the depth and duration of snow cover. Loss of the insulating snow layer will fundamentally change the environment. Understanding how individuals, populations, and communities respond to different snow conditions is thus essential for predicting and managing future ecosystem change. We synthesized 365 studies that examined ecological responses to variation in winter snow conditions. This research encompasses a broad range of methods (experimental manipulations, measurement of natural snow gradients, and long-term monitoring), locations (35 countries), study organisms (plants, mammals, arthropods, birds, fish, lichen, and fungi), and response measures. Earlier snowmelt was consistently associated with advanced spring phenology in plants, mammals, and arthropods. Reduced snow depth often increased mortality or physical injury in plants, although there were few clear effects on animals. Neither snow depth nor snowmelt timing had clear or consistent directional effects on body size of animals or biomass of plants. However, because 96% of studies were from the northern hemisphere, the generality of these trends across ecosystems and localities is also unclear. We identified substantial research gaps for several taxonomic groups and response types; research on wintertime responses was notably scarce. Future research should prioritize examination of the mechanisms underlying responses to changing snow conditions and the consequences of those responses for seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.

Snow melt timing acts independently and in conjunction with temperature accumulation to drive subalpine plant phenology

Organisms use environmental cues to align their phenology-the timing of life events-with sets of abiotic and biotic conditions that favor the successful completion of their life cycle. Climate change has altered the environmental cues organisms use to track climate, leading to shifts in phenology with the potential to affect a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the drivers of phenological shifts is critical to predicting future responses, but disentangling the effects of temperature from precipitation on phenology is often challenging because they tend to covary. We addressed this knowledge gap in a high-elevation environment where phenological shifts are associated with both the timing of spring snow melt and temperature. We factorially crossed early snow melt and passive warming treatments to (1) disentangle the effects of snow melt timing and warming on the phenology of flowering and fruiting and reproductive success in three subalpine plant species (Delphinium nuttallianum, Valeriana edulis, and Potentilla pulcherrima); and (2) assess whether snow melt acts via temperature accumulation or some other aspect of the environment (e.g., soil moisture) to affect phenological events. Both the timing and duration of flowering and fruiting responded to the climate treatments, but the effect of snow melt timing and warming varied among species and phenological stages. The combined effects of the treatments on phenology were always additive, and the snow melt treatment often affected phenology even when the warming treatment did not. Despite marked responses of phenology to climate manipulations, the species showed little change in reproductive success, with only one species producing fewer seeds in response to warming (Delphinium, -56%). We also found that snow melt timing can act both through temperature accumulation and as a distinct cue for phenology, and these effects are not mutually exclusive. Our results show that one environmental cue, here snow melt timing, may act through multiple mechanisms to shift phenology.

Climate change and elevational range shifts in insects

On mountains, unique in their steep and rapid climatic gradients, many insects are shifting their elevational range limits to track recent temperature change. In a review of the range shift literature to date, most of the 1478 montane insect populations tested so far are shifting to higher elevations, but there is conspicuous variation in the responses. We discuss the impact of study methodology as well as potential abiotic and biotic factors that may underlie this variation in climate change response. We encourage more empirical studies spanning greater insect biodiversity and directly testing how variation in species' traits, biogeography, and abiotic-biotic context shapes variation in range shift responses.

Low winter precipitation, but not warm autumns and springs, threatens mountain butterflies in middle-high mountains

Low-elevation mountains represent unique model systems to study species endangered by climate warming, such as subalpine and alpine species of butterflies. We aimed to test the effect of climate variables experienced by Erebia butterflies during their development on adult abundances and phenology, targeting the key climate factors determining the population dynamics of mountain insects. We analysed data from a long-term monitoring of adults of two subalpine and alpine butterfly species, Erebia epiphron and E. sudetica (Nymphalidae: Satyrinae) in the Jeseník Mts and Krkonoše Mts (Czech Republic). Our data revealed consistent patterns in their responses to climatic conditions. Lower precipitation (i.e., less snow cover) experienced by overwintering larvae decreases subsequent adult abundances. Conversely, warmer autumns and warmer and drier springs during the active larval phase increase adult abundances and lead to earlier onset and extended duration of the flight season. The population trends of these mountain butterflies are stable or even increasing. On the background of generally increasing temperatures within the mountain ranges, population stability indicates dynamic equilibrium of positive and detrimental consequences of climate warming among different life history stages. These contradictory effects warn against simplistic predictions of climate change consequences on mountain species based only on predicted increases in average temperature. Microclimate variability may facilitate the survival of mountain insect populations, however the availability of suitable habitats will strongly depend on the management of mountain grasslands.

Global Warming, Advancing Bloom and Evidence for Pollinator Plasticity from Long-Term Bee Emergence Monitoring

Simple Summary

Common experience has it that natural seasonal events are earlier in some years and later in others. In temperate zones, these events often seem to be timed by some combination of winter chill hours followed by cumulative warmth, variables which vary with a year’s weather. Over the course of decades, monitored annual bloom dates of a variety of wildflower species varies over 4–8-week ranges. This study reports annual emergence dates of four wild species of ground-nesting bees recorded over 12–24 years. Their first emergence ranged over 4–6 weeks, comparable to wildflowers and in part relatable to the same thermal cues used by plants. Global warming is advancing seasonal events, notably flowering, but it appears that native bees have the phenological flexibility to maintain their floral associations and critical pollination services both in wild and agricultural settings.

Abstract

Global warming is extending growing seasons in temperate zones, yielding earlier wildflower blooms. Short-term field experiments with non-social bees showed that adult emergence is responsive to nest substrate temperatures. Nonetheless, some posit that global warming will decouple bee flight and host bloom periods, leading to pollination shortfalls and bee declines. Resolving these competing scenarios requires evidence for bees’ natural plasticity in their annual emergence schedules. This study reports direct observations spanning 12–24 years for annual variation in the earliest nesting or foraging activities by 1–4 populations of four native ground-nesting bees: Andrena fulva (Andrenidae), Halictus rubicundus (Halictidae), Habropoda laboriosa and Eucera (Peponapis) pruinosa (Apidae). Calendar dates of earliest annual bee activity ranged across 25 to 45 days, approximating reported multi-decadal ranges for published wildflower bloom dates. Within a given year, the bee H. rubicundus emerged in close synchrony at multiple local aggregations, explicable if meteorological factors cue emergence. Emergence dates were relatable to thermal cues, such as degree day accumulation, soil temperature at nesting depth, and the first pulse of warm spring air temperatures. Similar seasonal flexibilities in bee emergence and wildflower bloom schedules bodes well for bees and bloom to generally retain synchrony despite a warming climate. Future monitoring studies can benefit from several simple methodological improvements.

The earlier the better? Nesting timing and reproductive success in subalpine cavity-nesting bees

Reproductive timing can affect an organism's production of offspring and its offspring's success, both of which contribute to its overall fitness. In seasonal environments, the timing of reproductive activity may be restricted to short periods of the year owing to numerous potential selective pressures such as variation in daylength, weather, food availability, predation or competition. We documented the relationships between reproductive timing and individual reproductive success (total reproductive output and offspring success) in subalpine populations of five cavity-nesting solitary bee species. We also examined the relationships between bee reproductive success and environmental variables that are likely ultimate drivers of bee phenology in subalpine environments (i.e. seasonality of floral resource abundance and temperature). Over 6 years, we recorded solitary bee nesting timing, egg production and offspring success using artificial nesting structures ('trap-nests') established at multiple study sites. We also quantified floral resources and recorded temperature throughout growing seasons. Bees nesting earlier in the season exhibited greater reproductive success. Reproductive output generally increased with floral abundance, although this relationship was weak and only significant for some bee species. Elevated temperatures were associated with increased nest construction rate, but not with greater reproductive output. These contrasting effects of temperature may have been driven by the negative relationship between temperature and bee longevity. Bees who nested for shorter durations of time (a proxy for longevity) produced fewer offspring, and individuals exhibiting the shortest nesting durations were also those that began nesting late in the season. Overall, bees who initiated nesting early and sustained activity for a long duration had the highest reproductive output. This work documents the relationship between reproductive phenology and fitness in wild insect populations and highlights the ways in which organisms can cope with the challenges of living in seasonal and highly variable environments.

Effects of ozone stress on flowering phenology, plant-pollinator interactions and plant reproductive success

Tropospheric ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant with the potential to alter plant metabolism. The direct effects of ozone on plant phenotype may alter interactions with other organisms, such as pollinators, and, consequently, affect plant reproductive success. In a set of greenhouse experiments, we tested whether exposure of plants to a high level of ozone affected their phenological development, their attractiveness to four different pollinators (mason bees, honeybees, hoverflies and bumblebees) and, ultimately, their reproductive success. Exposure of plants to ozone accelerated flowering, particularly on plants that were growing in autumn, when light and temperature cues, that commonly promote flowering, were weaker. Simultaneously, there was a tendency for ozone-exposed plants to disinvest in vegetative growth. Plant exposure to ozone did not substantially affect pollinator preference, but bumblebees had a tendency to visit more flowers on ozone-exposed plants, an effect that was driven by the fact that these plants tended to have more open flowers, meaning a stronger attraction signal. Honeybees spent more time per flower on ozone-exposed plants than on control plants. Acceleration of flower production and the behavioural responses of pollinators to ozone-exposed plants resulted in retained reproductive fitness of plants pollinated by bumblebees, honeybees and mason bees, despite the negative effects of ozone on plant growth. Plants that were pollinated by hoverflies had a reduction in reproductive fitness in response to ozone. In a natural setting, acceleration of flowering by ozone might foster desynchronization between plant and pollinator activities. This can have a strong impact on plants with short flowering periods and on plants that, unlike wild mustard, lack compensatory mechanisms to cope with the absence of pollinator activity in the beginning of flowering.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions

Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to coevolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO₂ concentrations, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater food consumption by herbivores. Additionally, elevated CO₂ delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO₂ and drought stress increase foliar herbivory. Our meta-analysis also suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO₂ , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

Phenological synchronization of seasonal bird migration with vegetation greenness across dietary guilds

The seasonal movement of animals has been linked to seasonal variation in ecological productivity, and it has been hypothesized that primary consumers synchronize migration with vegetation phenology. Within temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, herbivorous bird species often track the phenology of vegetation greenness during spring migration. Phenological synchronization with vegetation greenness by migratory birds in other dietary guilds, across the full extent of their annual distributions during both spring and autumn migration, has not been explored. Here, we document population-level associations with a remotely sensed measure of vegetation greenness for 230 North American migratory bird species in seven dietary guilds across the full annual cycle using eBird occurrence information for the combined period 2006-2018. Evidence of phenological synchronization was strongest for omnivores, herbivores, herbivore-granivores and granivores during spring and autumn migration, except for omnivores in the west during spring migration. Strong evidence of synchronization was also observed for insectivores during spring migration and carnivores during spring and autumn migration that migrated across the entire breadth of the continent. The level of evidence declined for insectivores in the west and east during spring migration, and for nectarivores in the west during spring and autumn migration. Limited evidence was also found for insectivores in the east during autumn migration, insectivores in the west and the centre of the continent during spring and autumn migration, and carnivores in the west during spring migration. Carnivores in the west during autumn migration showed the weakest evidence of synchronization. We found broad support across an array of dietary guilds for phenological coupling between vegetation greenness and seasonal bird migration within North America. Our results highlight the potential for many migratory bird species to encounter phenological mismatches as vegetation phenology responds to climate change. Our findings emphasize the need to better understand the environmental cues that regulate migratory behaviour across dietary guilds, consumer levels and migration tactics.

Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects

Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.

Using satellite-derived estimates of plant phenological rhythms to predict sage-grouse nesting chronology

The "green wave" hypothesis posits that during spring consumers track spatial gradients in emergent vegetation and associated foraging opportunities. This idea has largely been invoked to explain animal migration patterns, yet the general phenomenon underlies trends in vertebrate reproductive chronology as well. We evaluated the utility of this hypothesis for predicting spatial variation in nest initiation of greater sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern in western North America. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map the green wave across elevation and then compiled dates and locations of >450 sage-grouse nests from 20 study sites (2000-2014) to model nest initiation as a function of the start of the growing season (SOS), defined here as the maximum daily rate of increase in NDVI. Individual sites were drawn from three ecoregions, distributed over 4.5° latitude, and spanning 2,300 m in elevation, which captured the climatic, edaphic, and floristic diversity of sagebrush ecosystems in the southern half of current sage-grouse range. As predicted, SOS displayed a significant, positive relationship with elevation, occurring 1.3 days later for each 100 m increase in elevation. In turn, sage-grouse nest initiation followed SOS by 22 ± 10 days (r2  = .57), with hatch dates falling on or just prior to the peak of the growing season. By timing nesting to the green wave, sage-grouse chicks hatched when the abundance of protein-rich invertebrate biomass is hypothesized to be nearing a seasonal high. This adaptation likely represents a strategy for maximizing reproductive success in the arid, variable environments that define sagebrush ecosystems. Given projected changes in climate and land use, these results can be used to predict periods of relative sensitivity to habitat disturbance for sage-grouse. Moreover, the near real-time availability of satellite imagery offers a heretofore underutilized means of mapping the green wave, planning habitat restoration, and monitoring range conditions.

Why are there so many bee-orchid species? Adaptive radiation by intra-specific competition for mnesic pollinators

Adaptive radiations occur mostly in response to environmental variation through the evolution of key innovations that allow emerging species to occupy new ecological niches. Such biological innovations may play a major role in niche divergence when emerging species are engaged in reciprocal ecological interactions. To demonstrate coevolution is a difficult task; only a few studies have confirmed coevolution as driver of speciation and diversification. Herein we review current knowledge about bee orchid (Ophrys spp.) reproductive biology. We propose that the adaptive radiation of the Mediterranean orchid genus Ophrys, comprising several hundred species, is due to coevolutionary dynamics between these plants and their pollinators. We suggest that pollination by sexual swindling used by Ophrys orchids is the main driver of this coevolution. Flowers of each Ophrys species mimic a sexually receptive female of one particular insect species, mainly bees. Male bees are first attracted by pseudo-pheromones emitted by Ophrys flowers that are similar to the sexual pheromones of their females. Males then are lured by the flower shape, colour and hairiness, and attempt to copulate with the flower, which glues pollen onto their bodies. Pollen is later transferred to the stigma of another flower of the same Ophrys species during similar copulation attempts. In contrast to rewarding pollination strategies, Ophrys pollinators appear to be parasitized. Here we propose that this apparent parasitism is in fact a coevolutionary relationship between Ophrys and their pollinators. For plants, pollination by sexual swindling could ensure pollination efficiency and specificity, and gene flow among populations. For pollinators, pollination by sexual swindling could allow habitat matching and inbreeding avoidance. Pollinators might use the pseudo-pheromones emitted by Ophrys to locate suitable habitats from a distance within complex landscapes. In small populations, male pollinators would disperse once they have memorized the local diversity of sexual pseudo-pheromone bouquets or if all Ophrys flowers are fertilized and thus repel pollinators via production of repulsive pheromones that mimic those produced by fertilized female bees. We propose the following evolutionary scenario: Ophrys radiation is driven by strong intra-specific competition among Ophrys individuals for the attraction of species-specific pollinators, which is a consequence of the high cognitive abilities of pollinators. Male bees record the pheromone signatures of kin or of previously courted partners to avoid further copulation attempts, thereby inducing strong selection on Ophrys for variation in odour bouquets emitted by individual flowers. The resulting odour bouquets could by chance correspond to pseudo-pheromones of the females of another bee species, and thus attract a new pollinator. If such pollinator shifts occur simultaneously in several indivuals, pollen exchanges might occur and initiate speciation. To reinforce the attraction of the new pollinator and secure prezygotic isolation, the following step is directional selection on flower phenotypes (shape, colour and hairiness) towards a better match with the body of the pollinator's female. Pollinator shift and the resulting prezygotic isolation is adaptive for new Ophrys species because they may benefit from competitor-free space for limited pollinators. We end our review by proritizing several critical research avenues.

Year effects: Interannual variation as a driver of community assembly dynamics

Environmental conditions that vary from year to year can be strong drivers of ecological dynamics, including the composition of newly assembled communities. However, ecologists often chalk such dynamics up to "noise" in ecological experiments. Our lack of attention to such "year effects" hampers our understanding of contingencies in ecological assembly mechanisms and limits the generalizability of research findings. Here, we provide examples from published research demonstrating the importance of year effects during community assembly across study systems. We further quantify these year effects with two case studies-a grassland restoration experiment and a study of postfire conifer recruitment-finding that the effects of initiation year on community composition can dictate community as much, if not more, than the effects of experimental treatments or site. The evidence strongly suggests that year effects are pervasive and profound, and that year effects early in community assembly can drive strong and enduring divergence in community structure and function. Explicit attention to year effects in ecological research serves to illuminate basic ecological principles, allowing for better understanding of contingencies in ecology. These dynamics also have strong implications for applied ecological research, offering new insights into ecological restoration as well as future climate change.

A review of the challenges and opportunities for restoring animal-mediated pollination of native plants

Ecological restoration is increasingly implemented to reverse habitat loss and concomitant declines in biological diversity. Typically, restoration success is evaluated by measuring the abundance and/or diversity of a single taxon. However, for a restoration to be successful and persistent, critical ecosystem functions such as animal-mediated pollination must be maintained. In this review, we focus on three aspects of pollination within ecological restorations. First, we address the need to measure pollination directly in restored habitats. Proxies such as pollinator abundance and richness do not always accurately assess pollination function. Pollen supplementation experiments, pollen deposition studies, and pollen transport networks are more robust methods for assessing pollination function within restorations. Second, we highlight how local-scale management and landscape-level factors may influence pollination within restorations. Local-scale management actions such as prescribed fire and removal of non-native species can have large impacts on pollinator communities and ultimately on pollination services. In addition, landscape context including proximity and connectivity to natural habitats may be an important factor for land managers and conservation practitioners to consider to maximize restoration success. Third, as climate change is predicted to be a primary driver of future loss in biodiversity, we discuss the potential effects climate change may have on animal-mediated pollination within restorations. An increased mechanistic understanding of how climate change affects pollination and incorporation of climate change predictions will help practitioners design stable, functioning restorations into the future.

Bumble bees damage plant leaves and accelerate flower production when pollen is scarce

Maintaining phenological synchrony with flowers is a key ecological challenge for pollinators that may be exacerbated by ongoing environmental change. Here, we show that bumble bee workers facing pollen scarcity damage leaves of flowerless plants and thereby accelerate flower production. Laboratory studies revealed that leaf-damaging behavior is strongly influenced by pollen availability and that bee-damaged plants flower significantly earlier than undamaged or mechanically damaged controls. Subsequent outdoor experiments showed that the intensity of damage inflicted varies with local flower availability; furthermore, workers from wild colonies of two additional bumble bee species were also observed to damage plant leaves. These findings elucidate a feature of bumble bee worker behavior that can influence the local availability of floral resources.

Spring wildflower phenology and pollinator activity respond similarly to climatic variation in an eastern hardwood forest

Climate warming could disrupt species interactions if organisms' phenologies respond to climate change at different rates. Phenologies of plants and insects can be sensitive to temperature and timing of snowmelt; however, many important pollinators including ground-nesting bees have been little studied in this context. Without knowledge of the environmental cues affecting phenologies of co-occurring species, we have little ability to predict how species assemblages, and species interactions, will be affected by climate change. Here, we studied a hardwood forest understory over six years, to determine how spring temperatures, snowmelt timing, and photoperiod influence the phenology of two spring wildflowers (Anemone spp. and Trillium grandiflorum), activity of ground-nesting bees, and their temporal overlap. Surface degree-day accumulation was a better predictor of phenology for Anemone spp. (plant) and Nomada (bees) than were day of year (a proxy for photoperiod) or snowmelt date, whereas Trillium flowering appeared most sensitive to photoperiodic cues. Activity periods of Andrena and Lasioglossum bees were equally well described by degree-day accumulation and day of year. No taxon's phenology was best predicted by snowmelt date. Despite these differences among taxa in their phenological responses, timing of bee activity and flowering responded similarly to variation in snowmelt date and early spring temperatures. Furthermore, temporal overlap between flowering and bee activity was similar over the years of this study and was unaffected by variability in snowmelt date or temperature. Nevertheless, the differences among some taxa in their phenological responses suggests that diverging temporal shifts are a possibility for the future.

Phenological responses in a sycamore-aphid-parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter-annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics-particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri-trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local-scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid-March to late-April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density-dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter-annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.

Reproductive phenology across the lunar cycle: parental decisions, offspring responses, and consequences for reef fish

Most organisms reproduce in a dynamic environment, and life-history theory predicts that this can favor the evolution of strategies that capitalize on good times and avoid bad times. When offspring experience these environmental changes, fitness can depend strongly upon environmental conditions at birth and at later life stages. Consequently, fitness will be influenced by the reproductive decisions of parents (i.e., birth date effects) and developmental decisions (e.g., adaptive plasticity) of their offspring. We explored the consequences of these decisions using a highly iteroparous coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) and in a system where both parental and offspring environments vary with the lunar cycle. We tested the hypotheses that (1) reproductive patterns and offspring survival vary across the lunar cycle and (2) offspring exhibit adaptive plasticity in development time. We evaluated temporal variation in egg production from February to June 2017, and corresponding larval developmental histories (inferred from otolith microstructure) of successful settlers and surviving juveniles that were spawned during that same period. We documented lunar-cyclic variation in egg production (most eggs were spawned at the new moon). This pattern was at odds with the distribution of birth dates of settlers and surviving juveniles-most individuals that successfully survived to settlement and older stages were born during the full moon. Consequently, the probability of survival across the larval stage was greatest for offspring born close to the full moon, when egg production was at its lowest. Offspring also exhibited plasticity in developmental duration, adjusting their age at settlement to settle during darker portions of the lunar cycle than expected given their birth date. Offspring born near the new moon tended to be older and larger at settlement, and these traits conveyed a strong fitness advantage (i.e., a carryover effect) through to adulthood. We speculate that these effects (1) are shaped by a dynamic landscape of risk and reward determined by moonlight, which differentially influences adults and offspring, and (2) can explain the evolution of extreme iteroparity in sixbars.

Lasting signature of planting year weather on restored grasslands

Ecological restoration - the rebuilding of damaged or destroyed ecosystems - is a critical component of conservation efforts, but is hindered by inconsistent, unpredictable outcomes. We investigated a source of this variation that is anecdotally suggested by practitioners, but for which empirical evidence is rare: the weather conditions during the first growing season after planting. The idea of whether natural communities face long-term consequences from conditions even many years in the past, called historical contingency, is a debated idea in ecological research. Using a large dataset (83 sites) across a wide geographic distribution (three states), we find evidence that precipitation and temperatures in the planting year (2-19 years before present) affected the relative dominance of the sown (native target species) and non-sown (mostly non-native) species. We find strong support for lasting planting year weather effects in restored tallgrass prairies, thereby supporting the historically contingent model of community assembly in a real-world setting.

Progressive deterioration of pollination service detected in a 17-year study vanishes in a 26-year study

Widespread reports of declining populations of pollinators have raised concerns that plant populations may be incurring increasing shortfalls in pollination, but few studies have measured pollination deficits over enough seasons to detect such changes. I have conducted pollen-supplementation experiments in a wild population of the glacier lily (Erythronium grandiflorum, Liliaceae) from 1993 to 2018. Pollination deficits were estimated by comparing the fruit set of hand-pollinated, single-flowered plants to that of open-pollinated controls. For a subset of years, seed set data were also available. A previous publication reported a significant deterioration of pollination in this population from 1993 to 2009, and suggested phenological dislocation as a possible cause. That deterioration is no longer evident in the longer-term data set. Very long time series may be necessary to detect temporal trends in pollination service. This population consistently experiences stronger pollination deficits before its flowering peak than after. This heterogeneity suggests caution in characterizing a population as pollination-limited or not, even within a single season.

Warmer temperatures advance flowering in a spring plant more strongly than emergence of two solitary spring bee species

Climate warming has the potential to disrupt plant-pollinator interactions or to increase competition of co-flowering plants for pollinators, due to species-specific phenological responses to temperature. However, studies focusing on the effect of temperature on solitary bee emergence and the flowering onset of their food plants under natural conditions are still rare. We studied the effect of temperature on the phenology of the two spring bees Osmia cornuta and Osmia bicornis, by placing bee cocoons on eleven grasslands differing in mean site temperature. On seven grasslands, we additionally studied the effect of temperature on the phenology of the red-list plant Pulsatilla vulgaris, which was the first flowering plant, and of co-flowering plants with later flowering. With a warming of 0.1°C, the abundance-weighted mean emergence of O. cornuta males advanced by 0.4 days. Females of both species did not shift their emergence. Warmer temperatures advanced the abundance-weighted mean flowering of P. vulgaris by 1.3 days per 0.1°C increase, but did not shift flowering onset of co-flowering plants. Competition for pollinators between P. vulgaris and co-flowering plants does not increase within the studied temperature range. We demonstrate that temperature advances plant flowering more strongly than bee emergence suggesting an increased risk of pollinator limitation for the first flowers of P. vulgaris.