Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools

Distribution, Invasion History, and Ecology of Non-native Pine Bark Beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) in Southern South America

The growth of international trade, coupled with an expansion of large-scale pine plantations in South America during the second half of the twentieth century, has significantly increased the opportunities for the invasion of forest insects. Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) are a large and diverse group of insects, commonly recognized as one of the most important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests worldwide and an important group among invasive forest species. In this study, we combined data from field sampling with published records of established non-native pine bark beetles, to describe their distribution and invasion history in pine plantations across southern South America, reviewing the available information on their phenology and host range. We obtained records of established populations of six Eurasian species distributed in two major regions: the southwest region comprises plantations in Chile and the Argentine Patagonia, with four bark beetle species: Hylastes ater, Hylastes linearis, Hylurgus ligniperda, and Orthotomicus laricis; the northeastern zone includes northeastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, and includes three bark beetle species: Cyrtogenius luteus, H. ligniperda, and O. erosus. The establishment of non-native populations across the study area began in the 1950s, and from the 1980s onwards, there has been an exponential increase in introductions. We predict that several of these species will continue spreading across South America and that new species will continue arriving. We highlight the importance of international collaboration for early detection and management of non-native pine bark beetles.

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade and travel; thus, the need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades of research and implementation of preborder, border, and postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, with no evidence of saturation, and are even predicted to accelerate. In this article, we review biosecurity measures used to mitigate the arrival, establishment, spread, and impacts of non-native forest insects and possible impediments to the successful implementation of these measures. Biosecurity successes are likely under-recognized because they are difficult to detect and quantify, whereas failures are more evident in the continued establishment of additional non-native species. There are limitations in existing biosecurity systems at global and country scales (for example, inspecting all imports is impossible, no phytosanitary measures are perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, and noncompliance is an ongoing problem). Biosecurity should be a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, and individuals.

Alien insect dispersal mediated by the global movement of commodities

Globalization and economic growth are recognized as key drivers of biological invasions. Alien species have become a feature of almost every biological community worldwide, and rates of new introductions continue to rise as the movement of people and goods accelerates. Insects are among the most numerous and problematic alien organisms, and are mainly introduced unintentionally with imported cargo or arriving passengers. However, the processes occurring prior to insect introductions remain poorly understood. We used a unique dataset of 1,902,392 border interception records from inspections at air, land, and maritime ports in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan, USA, and Canada to identify key commodities associated with insect movement through trade and travel. In total, 8939 species were intercepted, and commodity association data were available for 1242 species recorded between 1960 and 2019. We used rarefaction and extrapolation methods to estimate the total species richness and diversity associated with different commodity types. Plant and wood products were the main commodities associated with insect movement across cargo, passenger baggage, and international mail. Furthermore, certain species were mainly associated with specific commodities within these, and other broad categories. More closely related species tended to share similar commodity associations, but this occurred largely at the genus level rather than within orders or families. These similarities within genera can potentially inform pathway management of new alien species. Combining interception records across regions provides a unique window into the unintentional movement of insects, and provides valuable information on establishment risks associated with different commodity types and pathways.

A centenary tale: population genetic insights into the introduction history of the oriental fire-bellied toad (Bombina orientalis) in Beijing

Background

The successful establishment of a species population following a single introduction of a few individuals to a non-native area has been limited. Nevertheless, the oriental fire-bellied toad (Bombina orientalis) population in Beijing is purportedly descended from a single introduction of about 200 individuals translocated from Yantai, Shandong Province, China, in 1927.

Results

To resolve the introduction process and to understand the genetic consequences since that introduction approximately 90 years ago, we investigated the population’s genetic diversity and structure using 261 toads from Beijing and two native Shandong populations and inferred the species’ introduction history using simulation-based approaches. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences showed the two haplotypes found in Beijing nested within Yantai haplotypes, thus corroborating the historical record of the translocation source. The mtDNA and 11 nuclear microsatellite markers revealed both considerably lower genetic diversity in Beijing than in the source population and strong genetic differentiation between them. Although the current census population in Beijing may be in the range of a few thousand, the effective population size was estimated at only 20–57. Simulations also suggest that this population may have descended from 40–60 founders.

Conclusions

The Beijing population’s genetic patterns were consistent with the consequences of a severe bottleneck during introduction followed by genetic drift. The introduction trajectory constructed for this B. orientalis population reveals the genetic footprints of a small population sustained in isolation for nearly a century. Our results provide an intriguing example of establishment success from limited founders and may inform ex situ conservation efforts as well as the management of biological invasions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02072-z.

Use of mixed-type data clustering algorithm for characterizing temporal and spatial distribution of biosecurity border detections of terrestrial non-indigenous species

Appropriate inspection protocols and mitigation strategies are a critical component of effective biosecurity measures, enabling implementation of sound management decisions. Statistical models to analyze biosecurity surveillance data are integral to this decision-making process. Our research focuses on analyzing border interception biosecurity data collected from a Class A Nature Reserve, Barrow Island, in Western Australia and the associated covariates describing both spatial and temporal interception patterns. A clustering analysis approach was adopted using a generalization of the popular k-means algorithm appropriate for mixed-type data. The analysis approach compared the efficiency of clustering using only the numerical data, then subsequently including covariates to the clustering. Based on numerical data only, three clusters gave an acceptable fit and provided information about the underlying data characteristics. Incorporation of covariates into the model suggested four distinct clusters dominated by physical location and type of detection. Clustering increases interpretability of complex models and is useful in data mining to highlight patterns to describe underlying processes in biosecurity and other research areas. Availability of more relevant data would greatly improve the model. Based on outcomes from our research we recommend broader use of cluster models in biosecurity data, with testing of these models on more datasets to validate the model choice and identify important explanatory variables.

Arthropods on imported plant products: Volumes predict general trends while contextual details enhance predictive power

Agricultural biosecurity interventions are aimed at minimizing introductions of harmful non-native organisms to new areas via agricultural trade. To prioritize such interventions, historical data on interceptions have been used to elucidate which factors determine the likelihood that a particular import is carrying a harmful organism. Here we use an interception data set of arthropod contaminants recorded on plant imports arriving in South Africa from 2005 to 2019, comprising 13,566 samples inspected for arthropod contaminants, of which 4902 were positive for the presence of at least one arthropod. We tested 29 predictor variables that have previously been used to explain variation in rates of detection and three variables describing possible sources of additional variation and grouped these into six mutually exclusive "factor classes." We used boosted regression trees as a non-parametric stochastic machine-learning method to build models for each factor class and interactions between them. We explored the influence of these variables with data split either randomly or chronologically. While we identified some specific patterns that could be explained post-hoc by historical events, only inspected volumes were reliably correlated with detection of arthropod contaminants across the whole data set. However, inspected volumes could not predict future interceptions of arthropods, which instead relied on contextual factors such as country, crop or year of import. This suggests that, although certain factors may be important in certain circumstances or for particular crops or commodities, there is little general predictive power in the current data. Instead, an idiographic approach would be most beneficial in biosecurity to ascertain the details of why a particular pest arrived on a particular pathway and how it might move (and be stopped) in future.

Preinvasion Assessment of Exotic Bark Beetle-Vectored Fungi to Detect Tree-Killing Pathogens

Exotic diseases and pests of trees have caused continental-scale disturbances in forest ecosystems and industries, and their invasions are considered largely unpredictable. We tested the concept of preinvasion assessment of not yet invasive organisms, which enables empirical risk assessment of potential invasion and impact. Our example assesses fungi associated with Old World bark and ambrosia beetles and their potential to impact North American trees. We selected 55 Asian and European scolytine beetle species using host use, economic, and regulatory criteria. We isolated 111 of their most consistent fungal associates and tested their effect on four important southeastern American pine and oak species. Our test dataset found no highly virulent pathogens that should be classified as an imminent threat. Twenty-two fungal species were minor pathogens, which may require context-dependent response for their vectors at North American borders, while most of the tested fungi displayed no significant impact. Our results are significant in three ways; they ease the concerns over multiple overseas fungus vectors suspected of heightened potential risk, they provide a basis for the focus on the prevention of introduction and establishment of species that may be of consequence, and they demonstrate that preinvasion assessment, if scaled up, can support practical risk assessment of exotic pathogens.

Worldwide border interceptions provide a window into human-mediated global insect movement

As part of national biosecurity programs, cargo imports, passenger baggage, and international mail are inspected at ports of entry to verify compliance with phytosanitary regulations and to intercept potentially damaging nonnative species to prevent their introduction. Detection of organisms during inspections may also provide crucial information about the species composition and relative arrival rates in invasion pathways that can inform the implementation of other biosecurity practices such as quarantines and surveillance. In most regions, insects are the main taxonomic group encountered during inspections. We gathered insect interception data from nine world regions collected from 1995 to 2019 to compare the composition of species arriving at ports in these regions. Collectively, 8,716 insect species were intercepted in these regions over the last 25 yr, with the combined international data set comprising 1,899,573 interception events, of which 863,972 were identified to species level. Rarefaction analysis indicated that interceptions comprise only a small fraction of species present in invasion pathways. Despite differences in inspection methodologies, as well as differences in the composition of import source regions and imported commodities, we found strong positive correlations in species interception frequencies between regions, particularly within the Hemiptera and Thysanoptera. There were also significant differences in species frequencies among insects intercepted in different regions. Nevertheless, integrating interception data among multiple regions would be valuable for estimating invasion risks for insect species with high likelihoods of introduction as well as for identifying rare but potentially damaging species.

Two new invasive Ips bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in mainland China and their potential distribution in Asia

BACKGROUND

Ips is a bark beetle genus of 45 species, many of which are pests of conifer forests and plantations under stress. Twelve Ips species are recorded from China and presumably native there. From 2016 to 2018, specimens suspected to be Ips calligraphus and Ips grandicollis, were collected from traps with ethanol as a sole lure in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China. Both species originate in North America and infest various species of native or introduced pines. Since Ips species are known to cause or exacerbate problems in pine plantations, and a regional survey using traps baited with attractants were implemented in this study to investigate the extent of the introduction.

RESULTS

Both I. calligraphus and I. grandicollis have been collected repeatedly from several traps with Ips attractants in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China since 2016. Potential distributions of these two species in Asia, inferred using MaxEnt, is extensive, given the high projected environmental suitability in North America, South America, Mediterranean Europe, Northern Africa, and Eastern Asia. The host plant of I. calligraphus from Zhuhai was identified as slash pine Pinus elliottii using DNA barcoding of gut contents from trapped individuals.

CONCLUSION

This is the first report of the establishment of two American pine bark beetles, I. calligraphus and I. grandicollis in continental Asia. The gut content of both species suggests that these pest feeds on a non-native host. Whether the two species present high-risk to Asian forests will become clear with more research on their interactions with native pines.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

Contaminant organisms recorded on plant product imports to South Africa 1994-2019

Biosecurity interception records are crucial data underlying efforts to predict and manage pest and pathogen introductions. Here we present a dataset containing information on imported plant products inspected by the South African Department of Agriculture's laboratories between 1994 and 2019 and the contaminant organisms found on them. Samples were received from border inspectors as either propagation material (e.g. plants) or material for immediate use (e.g. fruit). Material for immediate use was further divided into two sample categories, depending on if contaminants were seen/suspected by the border official or not: intervention or audit samples. The final dataset consists of 25,279 records, of which 30% tested positive (i.e. had at least one contaminant) and 13% had multiple contaminants. Of the 13,731 recorded contaminants, fungi (41%), mites (37%) and insects (19%) were most common. This dataset provides insight into the suite of taxa transported along the plant import pathway and provides an important resource for analyses of contaminant organisms in international trade, which can inform strategies for risk assessment, pathway management and biosecurity protocols.

Border interceptions of forest insects established in Australia: intercepted invaders travel early and often

Invasive forest insects continue to accumulate in Australia (and worldwide) and cause significant impacts through costs of prevention, eradication and management, and through productivity losses and environmental and biodiversity decline. We used our recent non-native Australian forest insect species inventory to analyse border interception rates (2003–2016) of established species, and link interception frequencies with biological traits, historical establishment patterns, commodities and countries of origin. The strongest predictor of interception frequency was year of establishment. Polyphagous species were more likely to be intercepted, as were more concealed species, although this latter likely reflects the higher interceptions of bostrichid borers and other wood-boring Coleoptera relative to other taxa. Interceptions occurred more often for species native to Asia; in contrast, interceptions from other regions were more likely to be of species invasive there. While interception frequencies did not provide a good overall indicator of contemporaneous species establishments, wood and bark borers were more closely linked for establishments and interceptions. The first fifty forest insect species to establish comprised 85% of all border interceptions of established species between 2003 and 2016, while the most-recent fifty species represented just 6% of interceptions. We suggest that early-establishing species are among the “super-invaders” that continue to move globally, while more recent invasive species may be exploiting new trade pathways, new commodity associations, or changes in dynamics in their countries of origin.

A multiregional assessment of transnational pathways of introduction

Information on the pathways by which alien taxa are introduced to new regions is vital for prioritising policy and management responses to invasions. However, available datasets are often compiled using disparate methods, making comparison and collation of pathway data difficult. Using a standardised framework for recording and categorising pathway data can help to rectify this problem and provide the information necessary to develop indicators for reporting on alien introductions. We combine the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Pathways Categorisation Scheme (CPC) with data compiled by the Invasive Species Specialist Group (ISSG) to report on multiregional trends on alien introduction pathways over the past 200+ years. We found a significant increase in the documented number of multiregional alien introduction events across all pathways of the CPC’s three hierarchical levels. The ‘escape’ pathway is the most common documented pathway used by alien taxa. Transport stowaways via shipping-related pathways are a rapidly increasing contribution to alien introductions. Most alien introduction events were of unknown pathway origin, highlighting the challenge of information gaps in pathway data and reiterating the need for standardised information-gathering practices. Combining the CPC framework with alien introduction pathways data will standardise pathway information and facilitate the development of global indicators of trends in alien introductions and the pathways they use. These indicators have the potential to inform policy and management strategies for preventing future biological invasions and can be downscaled to national and regional levels that are applicable across taxa and ecosystems.

Considering unseen arrivals in predictions of establishment risk based on border biosecurity interceptions

Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher-level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process-based model of the arrival-interception-establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an Allee effect in the establishment probability. Although interception data sets contain much noise due to variation in inspection policy, interception effort and among-species differences in detectability, our study shows that it is possible to use such data for predicting establishments and distinguishing differences in establishment risk profile between taxonomic groups. Our model provides a method for predicting the number of species that have breached border biosecurity, including both species detected during inspections but also "unseen arrivals" that have never been intercepted, but have not yet established a viable population. These estimates could inform prioritization of different taxonomic groups, pathways or identification effort in biosecurity programs.

Seeds attached to refrigerated shipping containers represent a substantial risk of nonnative plant species introduction and establishment

The initial processes for successful biological invasions are transport, introduction, and establishment. These can be directly influenced or completely avoided through activities that reduce the number and frequency of entering nonnative propagules. Economic and environmental benefits through preventative monitoring programs at early stages of invasion far outweigh the long-term costs associated with mitigating ecological and economic impacts once nonnative species establish and spread. In this study, we identified 30 taxa of hitchhiking plant propagules on the air-intake grilles of refrigerated shipping containers arriving into a United States seaport from a port on the Pacific coast of South America. The four monocotyledonous taxa with the highest number of seeds collected were analyzed; we estimated propagule pressure, germination, and survivorship of these taxa, and we used the estimates to determine likelihood of establishment. At the levels of propagule pressure estimated here, non-zero germination and survival rates resulted in high establishment probabilities even when escape rates from shipping containers were modelled to be exceedingly low. Our results suggest high invasion risk for nonnative taxa including Saccharum spontaneum L., a listed Federal Noxious Weed. Currently, not all shipping containers arriving at USA ports are thoroughly inspected due to limited personnel and funding for biological invasion prevention. Our results indicate that there is a significant risk from only a few propagules escaping into the environment from this source, and we propose possible solutions for reducing this risk.

Drivers of global Scolytinae invasion patterns

Biological invasions are affected by characteristics of invading species, strength of pathway connectivity among world regions and habitat characteristics of invaded regions. These factors may interact in complex ways to drive geographical variation in numbers of invasions among world regions. Understanding the role of these drivers provides information that is crucial to the development of effective biosecurity policies. Here we assemble for the first time a global database of historical invasions of Scolytinae species and explore factors explaining geographical variation in numbers of species invading different regions. This insect group includes several pest species with massive economic and ecological impacts and these beetles are known to be accidentally moved with wood packaging in global trade. Candidate explanatory characteristics included in this analysis are cumulative trade among world regions, size of source species pools, forest area, and climatic similarity of the invaded region with source regions. Species capable of sib-mating comprised the highest proportion on nonnative Scolytines, and these species colonized a higher number of regions than outbreeders. The size of source species pools offered little power in explaining variation in numbers of invasions among world regions nor did climate or forest area. In contrast, cumulative trade had a strong and consistent positive relationship with numbers of Scolytinae species moving from one region to another, and this effect was highest for bark beetles, followed by ambrosia beetles, and was low for seed and twig feeders. We conclude that global variation in Scolytine invasions is primarily driven by variation in trade levels among world regions. Results stress the importance of global trade as the primary driver of historical Scolytinae invasions and we anticipate other hitchhiking species would exhibit similar patterns. One implication of these results is that invasions between certain world regions may be historically low because of past low levels of trade but future economic shifts could result in large numbers of new invasions as a result of increased trade among previously isolated portions of the world. With changing global flow of goods among world regions, it is crucial that biosecurity efforts keep pace to minimize future invasions and their impacts.

Analysis of Recent Interception Records Reveals Frequent Transport of Arboreal Ants and Potential Predictors for Ant Invasion in Taiwan

We uncovered taxonomic diversity, country of origin and commodity type of intercepted ants at Taiwanese borders based on an 8 year database of 439 interception records. We found intercepted ants arrived predominantly via timber, a pattern likely reflecting the high domestic demand for foreign timber in Taiwan. The most frequently intercepted species were either arboreal or wood-dwelling ants, raising a concern of these ants constituting a next wave of ant invasion in Taiwan. Further analyses indicate that the taxonomic composition of intercepted ants does not match that of established non-native ant species, suggesting that interception data alone fails to provide adequate power to predict the establishment success of ants. Yet, interception frequency and selected life-history traits (i.e., flexible colony founding mode and general nesting habits) were shown to jointly serve as a practical predictor of the establishment risk of non-native ants. Consistent with other border interception databases, secondary introduction (i.e., species arriving from their introduced ranges instead of their native ranges) also represents a major pathway for transport of invasive ants into Taiwan, suggesting its role in shaping the global invasion of ants. Our findings offer baseline information for constructing a prediction framework for future ant invasions and assist in the decision-making process of quarantine authorities in Taiwan.

An initial industrial flora: A framework for botanical research in cooperation with industry for biodiversity conservation

Humans have created an accelerating, increasingly connected, globalized economy, resulting in a more globalized, shared flora. The prevention of new, establishing species is less costly, both economically and ecologically, and is more manageable than eradicating nonnative invasive species once they are widespread and negatively impactful. We ask if international trade hubs and points-of-entry with high-volume trade, constant disturbance, and propagule rain have a higher number of nonnative species compared to surrounding areas and if they may serve as initial establishment sites and refugia of nonnative, invasive populations. Therefore, we partnered with various federal, state, and private interests to evaluate the floristic composition at the Garden City Terminal of the Port of Savannah, Georgia, USA. We conducted the following study to demonstrate the collaborative relationship-building between researchers and industry and to develop a framework for biodiversity conservation. In our study, we collected all reproductive vascular plants in the secured areas of the Garden City Terminal during four major seasonal time points over two years. The percent of nonnative species and number of nonnative plant species per hectare at this industrial location exceeded all other comparison floras. The mean coefficient of conservatism was lowest among the comparison floras, indicating a highly disturbed habitat with nonnative, weedy native, and other native species tolerant of disturbance. Our study represents one of the first inventories of an Industrialized Flora and indicates that such areas are hot-spots of nonnative plant diversity and possible sources of emergent plant invasions. We posit that industrial sites and international points-of-entry should be considered laboratories for research on species transport and introduction, adaptability, and taxonomic delineation to better understand the mechanisms and consequences of biotic homogenization due to the volume and frequency of anthropogenic activities.

Pest categorisation of non-EU Scolytinae of coniferous hosts

The Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of non‐EU Scolytinae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) of coniferous hosts (hereafter NESC). NESC occur worldwide, and some species are important forest pests. Species can be identified using taxonomic keys and molecular methods. Most NESC species (bark beetles) live in the inner bark of their hosts (phloem and cambium), while the remaining species mostly colonise the sapwood (ambrosia beetles). Bark‐ and ambrosia beetles are often associated with symbiotic fungi, which behave as pathogens towards the host trees, or are used as food by ambrosia beetle larvae. The larvae live in individual tunnels or in communal chambers. Pupation occurs in the wood or in the bark. Some species are semi‐ or multivoltine, others are monovoltine. Some species attack and kill living, apparently healthy trees. Other species specialise in weakened, dying or dead trees. The pathways for entry are cut branches, cones, round wood with or without bark, sawn wood with or without bark, wood packaging material, bark, manufactured wood items and wood chips and plants for planting (including seeds) of conifers. Availability of host plants and suitable climate would allow the establishment in the EU of NESC. Measures are in place to prevent their introduction through the pathways described above. NESC satisfy all the criteria to be considered as Union quarantine pests. As NESC are not present in the EU and plants for planting are not their major pathway for spread, they do not meet the criteria to be considered as regulated non‐quarantine pests.

Will growing invasive arthropod biodiversity outpace our ability for eradication?

The Global Eradication Database documents 811 eradication attempts against invasive arthropods since 1890, in 104 countries. Eradication programs show a greater than exponential increase in the number of programs started in recent decades. In addition, there is a trend of a rapidly diversifying burden of the most severe threats. The species richness showed a three-fold increase in number of species under eradication in the last 50 yr, and all taxonomic levels rose dramatically. The increase in number of eradication programs shows that current management measures for constraining the spread of invasive species are inadequate. A similar surge in the number of governments trying to prevent the establishment of new pests has occurred. Increased biodiversity of arthropod eradication targets includes new pest groups with fewer tools developed for management. We argue that a rapid increase in biodiversity of invasive and economically or environmentally damaging organisms represents a substantial and underestimated challenge for managers wanting to prevent their establishment, requiring a shift in research focus to accelerate delimitation and suppression options with less reliance on insecticides.

Urban trees facilitate the establishment of non-native forest insects

Cities, due to the presence of ports and airports and the high diversity of trees in streets, parks, and gardens, may play an important role for the introduction of invasive forest pests. We hypothesize that areas of urban forest facilitate the establishment of non-native forest pests. Based on scientific literature and a pan-European database on non-native species feeding on woody plants, we analysed where the first detections occurred in European countries. We collected site data for 137 first detections in Europe and 508 first European country-specific records. We also estimated the percentage of tree cover and suitable habitat (green areas with trees) in buffers around detection points. The large majority of first records (89% for first record in Europe and 88% for first records in a European country) were found in cities or suburban areas. Only 7% of the cases were in forests far from cities. The probability of occurrence decreased sharply with distance from the city. The probability to be detected in urban areas was higher for sap feeders, gall makers, and seed or fruit feeders (>90%) than for bark and wood borers (81%). Detection sites in cities were highly diverse, including public parks, street trees, university campus, arboreta, zoos, and botanical gardens. The average proportion of suitable habitat was less than 10% in urban areas where the species were detected. Further, more than 72% of the cases occurred in sites with less than 20% of tree cover. Hotspots of first detection were identified along the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and Atlantic, and near industrial areas of central Europe. We conclude that urban trees are main facilitators for the establishment of non-native forest pests, and that cities should thus be intensely surveyed. Moreover, as urban areas are highly populated, the involvement of citizens is highly recommended.

Introducing AlienScenarios: a project to develop scenarios and models of biological invasions for the 21 st century

AlienScenarios, a three-year project starting in March 2019, will evaluate for the first time the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century. AlienScenarios consists of seven project partners and seven integrated complementary subprojects. We will develop the qualitative narratives for plausible futures of global alien species richness and impacts in the 21st century – the Alien Species Narratives (ASNs). The ASNs further serve as overarching concept to parameterize quantitative models of global, continental and regional futures of biological invasions. We will also establish the first global mechanistic invasion model considering major processes of biological invasions such as source pools, driver dynamics and establishment rates. Further, we will assess the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) in terms of economic costs according to the different ASNs. In addition, we will assess the consequences of different levels of implementation of the European Union Regulation on IAS. Providing some more detailed regional information, we will analyse changes of the functional composition of communities in mountain regions under different scenario storylines and will extend the analyses to the Global South using Panama as a country-level case study. Finally, the results of the other WPs will be synthesized, and the approach and results of AlienScenarios will be discussed with and communicated to stakeholders and the wider community. AlienScenarios will provide crucially needed insights for pro-active alien species management and policy. It will thus make an important contribution to global assessments and projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as regional policies (e.g. EU regulation on IAS).

Isolation and identification of a male-produced aggregation-sex pheromone for the velvet longhorned beetle, Trichoferus campestris

The velvet longhorned beetle, Trichoferus campestris (Faldermann) (“VLB”; Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), is native to eastern Asia where it infests and damages a wide range of deciduous and coniferous tree species, including orchard and timber species. Immature stages of VLB are transported to new countries via international commerce, and populations have established outside the native range of the species. Here, we show that identification of pheromones of invasive pest species can be expedited by knowledge of the semiochemistry of related taxa. Histological sectioning revealed subcuticular, male-specific prothoracic glands connected to pits in the cuticle, which, in related species, are diagnostic for production of male-produced aggregation-sex pheromones, usually characterized by 2,3-alkanediol/hydroxyketone structural motifs. However, in preliminary field bioassays, beetles were not attracted by any known cerambycid pheromones. Subsequently, we identified a novel variant of the hydroxyketone motif (“trichoferone”) from headspace volatiles of males. In field bioassays, synthetic trichoferone was more attractive to both sexes of VLB than previously developed high-release-rate ethanol lures, and attraction was strongly female biased. This study demonstrated the utility of the prothoracic gland trait for predicting pheromone use in cerambycid species in the subfamily Cerambycinae, and that identification of pheromones of novel species can be expedited by knowledge of pheromones of related species. Trichoferone should prove to be a valuable tool for detection of VLB in regions where the beetle is or may become established.

Multiple-Lure Surveillance Trapping for Ips Bark Beetles, Monochamus Longhorn Beetles, and Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

Invasions by insects introduced via international trade continue to cause worldwide impacts. Surveillance programs using traps baited with host volatiles and pheromones can detect incursions of nonnative species. We report on two experiments executed to determine if attractants for several insect species can be combined without compromising trap catches and detection ability of target species. In the first experiment, we tested the effect of bark beetle pheromones (plus α-pinene) and trap contact with foliage on trap catches of the brown marmorated stink bug Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in traps baited with a mixture of bisabolenes and methyl (E,E,Z)-2,4,6-decatrienoate. Trap capture of H. halys adults was greater in traps not in contact with foliage, and the bark beetle pheromones ipsenol and ipsdienol did not affect trap capture of H. halys. In the second experiment, we tested the effects of multi-lure interactions among the primary host attractants α-pinene and ethanol, and the pheromones monochamol, ipsenol, ipsdienol, lanierone, and the H. halys compounds, on trap captures of various forest and agricultural insect pests. Specifically, we targeted Monochamus spp. (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), Ips spp. (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) and H. halys. We found that a combination of all lures did not catch significantly lower numbers of Monochamus carolinensis Olivier, Monochamus scutellatus Say (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), and Ips pini Say (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) than lure combinations missing components although removal of both lanierone and ipsdienol somewhat increased catches of Ips grandicollis Eichhoff (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our results support the use of traps baited with a full combination of these attractants in surveillance programs. This should reduce costs and increase detection rates of a wider range of conifer forest pests and H. halys.

Recurrent bridgehead effects accelerate global alien ant spread

Biological invasions are a major threat to biological diversity, agriculture, and human health. To predict and prevent new invasions, it is crucial to develop a better understanding of the drivers of the invasion process. The analysis of 4,533 border interception events revealed that at least 51 different alien ant species were intercepted at US ports over a period of 70 years (1914-1984), and 45 alien species were intercepted entering New Zealand over a period of 68 years (1955-2013). Most of the interceptions did not originate from species' native ranges but instead came from invaded areas. In the United States, 75.7% of the interceptions came from a country where the intercepted ant species had been previously introduced. In New Zealand, this value was even higher, at 87.8%. There was an overrepresentation of interceptions from nearby locations (Latin America for species intercepted in the United States and Oceania for species intercepted in New Zealand). The probability of a species' successful establishment in both the United States and New Zealand was positively related to the number of interceptions of the species in these countries. Moreover, species that have spread to more continents are also more likely to be intercepted and to make secondary introductions. This creates a positive feedback loop between the introduction and establishment stages of the invasion process, in which initial establishments promote secondary introductions. Overall, these results reveal that secondary introductions act as a critical driver of increasing global rates of invasions.

Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction

The United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually-an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot-specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units. We derive a formula for expected number of accepted infested units (expected slippage) given lot size, sample size, infestation rate, and detection rate, and we formulate and analyze the inspector's optimization problem of allocating a sampling budget among incoming lots to minimize the cost of slippage. We conduct an empirical analysis of live plant inspection, including estimation of plant infestation rates from historical data, and find that inspections optimally target the largest lots with the highest plant infestation rates, leaving some lots unsampled. We also consider that USDA-APHIS, which administers inspections, may want to continue inspecting all lots at a baseline level; we find that allocating any additional capacity, beyond a comprehensive baseline inspection, to the largest lots with the highest infestation rates allows inspectors to meet the dual goals of minimizing the costs of slippage and maintaining baseline sampling without substantial compromise.

The fruit and vegetable import pathway for potential invasive pest arrivals

The expansion of international trade in commodities increases the risk of alien species invasions. Invaders are difficult to detect on introduction, so prevention remains the preferred strategy for managing the threat of invasions. Propagule pressure has been shown to be a good predictor of invasion risk. Most studies to date, however, link potential invasive species arrivals with indirect measures of propagule pressure such as aggregate trade volumes. This paper estimates propagule pressure using data that measure actual arrivals. Specifically, it uses inspection data that covers almost all U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from 2005-2014 to estimate a logit model of the probability of potential invasive species arrival and expected propagule frequencies for 2,240 commodity/country of origin combinations. Clear patterns in the geographic origin and commodity pathways for potential pests are identified. The average probability of arrival is low, approximately 0.03, but is two to ten times higher for some commodities, most notably herbs. We identify commodities with a high number of expected arrivals due to either a large volume of trade, high interception rates, or a combination of both. Seven of the top ten countries of origin for propagule frequency are from the Western Hemisphere and further trade liberalization within the Western Hemisphere is likely to heighten challenges to enforcement of US phytosanitary standards. Patterns in the data can help identify the commodities and countries of origin in greatest need of technical assistance and guide targeting of surveillance for the pathways of greatest phytosanitary concern.

Simulations indicate that scores of lionfish (Pterois volitans) colonized the Atlantic Ocean

The invasion of the western Atlantic Ocean by the Indo-Pacific red lionfish (Pterois volitans) has had devastating consequences for marine ecosystems. Estimating the number of colonizing lionfish can be useful in identifying the introduction pathway and can inform policy decisions aimed at preventing similar invasions. It is well-established that at least ten lionfish were initially introduced. However, that estimate has not faced probabilistic scrutiny and is based solely on the number of haplotypes in the maternally-inherited mitochondrial control region. To rigorously estimate the number of lionfish that were introduced, we used a forward-time, Wright-Fisher, population genetic model in concert with a demographic, life-history model to simulate the invasion across a range of source population sizes and colonizing population fecundities. Assuming a balanced sex ratio and no Allee effects, the simulations indicate that the Atlantic population was founded by 118 (54–514, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean by 84 (22–328, 95% HPD) lionfish from the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico by at least 114 (no upper bound on 95% HPD) lionfish from the Caribbean. Increasing the size, and therefore diversity, of the Indo-Pacific source population and fecundity of the founding population caused the number of colonists to decrease, but with rapidly diminishing returns. When the simulation was parameterized to minimize the number of colonists (high θ and relative fecundity), 96 (48–216, 95% HPD) colonists were most likely. In a more realistic scenario with Allee effects (e.g., 50% reduction in fecundity) plaguing the colonists, the most likely number of lionfish increased to 272 (106–950, 95% HPD). These results, in combination with other published data, support the hypothesis that lionfish were introduced to the Atlantic via the aquarium trade, rather than shipping. When building the model employed here, we made assumptions that minimize the number of colonists, such as the lionfish being introduced in a single event. While we conservatively modelled the introduction pathway as a single release of lionfish in one location, it is more likely that a combination of smaller and larger releases from a variety of aquarium trade stakeholders occurred near Miami, Florida, which could have led to even larger numbers of colonists than simulated here. Efforts to prevent future invasions via the aquarium trade should focus on the education of stakeholders and the prohibition of release, with adequate rewards for compliance and penalties for violations.

Mapping the Potential Global Range of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys, with Particular Reference to New Zealand

Originating from Asia, the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a significant pest of horticultural/agricultural crops, grapes, woody ornamental and herbaceous plants, and is also a nuisance to people, due to its overwintering behavior in human habitation. The global range of this pest is steadily increasing and previous predictions of environmental suitability have shown New Zealand to be highly suitable. Due to the economic value of horticultural and agricultural industries to the New Zealand economy, it is vital to understand the range of potential risk within the country. Global and New Zealand potential suitability for BMSB was modeled using three algorithms and the resulting predictions ensembled to predict the potential range under current climatic conditions and under trajectories of future low (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emissions for both 2050 and 2070. Under current conditions, models showed a high global suitability within latitudes 25°–50° N, southern South America, southeast and southwest regions of Australia and large areas of New Zealand. Modeling the effect of climate change on BMSB range in New Zealand resulted in a southerly range shift over time, particularly with high emissions trajectory. Currently, BMSB is not established in New Zealand and it is vital that this remains the case.

Predicting North American Scolytinae invasions in the Southern Hemisphere

Scolytinae species are recognized as one of the most important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests worldwide, and many are known invaders because they are easily transported in wood products. Nonnative trees planted in novel habitats often exhibit exceptional growth, in part because they escape herbivore (such as Scolytinae) pressure from their native range. Increasing accidental introductions of forest pest species as a consequence of international trade, however, is expected to diminish enemy release of nonnative forest trees. In this context, there is need to characterize patterns of forest herbivore species invasion risks at global scales. In this study, we analyze the establishment potential of 64 North American Scolytinae species in the Southern Hemisphere. We use climate-based ecological niche models (MaxEnt) to spatially define the potential distribution of these Scolytinae species in regions of the Southern Hemisphere were pines are planted. Our model predicts that all of the pine-growing regions of the Southern Hemisphere are capable of supporting some species of North American Scolytinae, but there are certain "hotspot" regions, southeastern Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and southwestern Australia, that appear to be suitable for a particularly large number of species. The species with the highest predicted risk of establishment were Dendroctonus valens, Xyleborus intrusus, Hylastes tenuis, Ips grandicollis, Gnathotrichus sulcatus, and Ips calligraphus. Given that global commerce is anticipated to continue to increase, we can expect that more Scolytinae species will continue to establish outside their range. Our results provide information useful for identifying a global list of potential invasive species in pine plantations, and may assist in the design of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing pest establishment in Southern Hemisphere forest plantations.

Olfactory Cues, Visual Cues, and Semiochemical Diversity Interact During Host Location by Invasive Forest Beetles

Plant-feeding insects use visual and olfactory cues (shape, color, plant volatiles) for host location, but the relative importance of different cues and interactions with non-host-plant volatiles in ecosystems of varying plant biodiversity is unclear for most species. We studied invasive bark beetles and wood borers associated with pine trees to characterize interactions among color, host and non-host volatiles, by employing traps that mimic tree trunks. Cross-vane flight intercept traps (black, green, red, white, yellow, clear) and black funnel traps were used with and without attractants (α-pinene + ethanol), repellents (non-host green leaf volatiles, 'GLV'), and attractant/repellent combinations in four pine forests in New Zealand. We trapped 274,594 Hylurgus ligniperda, 7842 Hylastes ater, and 16,301 Arhopalus ferus. Trap color, attractant, and color × attractant effects were highly significant. Overall, black and red traps had the highest catches, irrespective of the presence of attractants. Alpha-pinene plus ethanol increased trap catch of H. ligniperda 200-fold but only 6-fold for H. ater and 2-fold for A. ferus. Green leaf volatiles had a substantial repellent effect on trap catch of H. ligniperda but less on H. ater and A. ferus. Attack by H. ligniperda was halved when logs were treated with GLV, and a similar effect was observed when logs were placed among broadleaved understory shrubs emitting GLV. Overall, H. ligniperda was most strongly affected by the olfactory cues used, whereas H. ater and A. ferus were more strongly affected by visual cues. Collectively, the results support the semiochemical diversity hypothesis, indicating that non-host plant volatiles from diverse plant communities or artificial dispensers can contribute to resistance against herbivores by partly disrupting host location.

Nonnative forest insects and pathogens in the United States: Impacts and policy options

We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port-specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed-effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one-tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.