Machine Learning Approach to Predicting COVID-19 Disease Severity Based on Clinical Blood Test Data: Statistical Analysis and Model Development

Biomedical data analytics for better patient outcomes

Medical professionals today have access to immense amounts of data, which enables them to make decisions that enhance patient care and treatment efficacy. This innovative strategy can improve global health care by bridging the divide between clinical practice and medical research. This paper reviews biomedical developments aimed at improving patient outcomes by addressing three main questions regarding techniques, data sources and challenges. The review includes peer-reviewed articles from 2018 to 2023, found via systematic searches in PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar. The results show diverse disease-specific applications. Challenges such as data quality and ethics are discussed, underscoring data analytics' potential for patient-focused health care. The review concludes that successful implementation requires addressing gaps, collaboration and innovation in biomedical science and data analytics.

Discrimination between Covid-19 positive and negative blood serum based on excitation-emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometrics

The outbreak of the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Covid-19) has resulted in a global health emergency that has caused millions of deaths in recent years. The control of the pandemic was significantly impacted by the availability of inputs and qualified labor to correctly diagnose the population. The challenges faced by numerous countries in conducting this extensive diagnosis, utilizing methods such as RT-PCR, emphasize the necessity for alternative testing strategies that are less reliant on expensive raw materials and can be implemented on a larger scale. This paper proposes a methodology for classifying blood serum samples as either positive or negative for Covid-19 infection using excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy associated with multivariate analysis. The proposed methodology uses EEM spectra of samples diagnosed by the reference method (RT-PCR) to train and validate classification models. Two approaches were tested: the first using PARAFAC and the second by unfolding the excitation-emission matrices. The DD-SIMCA model performed best in the PARAFAC approach, with an error rate of 0.05, sensitivity of 0.98 and specificity of 0.96. The PLS-DA and PCA-DA models in the second approach effectively distinguished between classes. The PCA-DA model performed the best with an error rate of 0.06 and sensitivity and specificity of 0.94. Fluorescence spectroscopy was found to be effective in analyzing serum samples and obtaining discrimination models to determine if a patient is infected with SARS-CoV-2. The findings are encouraging and could aid in the development of an inexpensive and reliable auxiliary diagnostic method.

Modified mutual information feature selection algorithm to predict COVID-19 using clinical data

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted health, emphasizing the need for timely disease detection. Blood tests have become key diagnostic tools due to the virus's effects on blood composition. Accurate COVID-19 prediction through machine learning requires selecting relevant features, as irrelevant features can lower classification accuracy. This study proposes Modified Mutual Information (MMI) for feature selection, ranking features by relevance and using backtracking to find the optimal subset. Support Vector Machines (SVM) are then used for classification. Results show that MMI with SVM achieves 95% accuracy, outperforming other methods, and demonstrates strong generalizability on various benchmark datasets.

Deep self-supervised machine learning algorithms with a novel feature elimination and selection approaches for blood test-based multi-dimensional health risks classification

BACKGROUND

Blood test is extensively performed for screening, diagnoses and surveillance purposes. Although it is possible to automatically evaluate the raw blood test data with the advanced deep self-supervised machine learning approaches, it has not been profoundly investigated and implemented yet.

RESULTS

This paper proposes deep machine learning algorithms with multi-dimensional adaptive feature elimination, self-feature weighting and novel feature selection approaches. To classify the health risks based on the processed data with the deep layers, four machine learning algorithms having various properties from being utterly model free to gradient driven are modified.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that the proposed deep machine learning algorithms can remove the unnecessary features, assign self-importance weights, selects their most informative ones and classify the health risks automatically from the worst-case low to worst-case high values.

Clinical Features Predicting COVID-19 Severity Risk at the Time of Hospitalization

The global spread of COVID-19 has led to significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. Early identification of COVID-19 patients who are at high risk of developing severe disease can help in improved patient management, care, and treatment, as well as in the effective allocation of hospital resources. The severity prediction at the time of hospitalization can be extremely helpful in deciding the treatment of COVID-19 patients. To this end, this study presents an interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) model, named COVID-19 severity predictor (CoSP) that predicts COVID-19 severity using the clinical features at the time of hospital admission. We utilized a dataset comprising 64 demographic and laboratory features of 7,416 confirmed COVID-19 patients that were collected at the time of hospital admission. The proposed hierarchical CoSP model performs four-class COVID severity risk prediction into asymptomatic, mild, moderate, and severe categories. CoSP yielded better performance with good interpretability, as observed via Shapley analysis on COVID severity prediction compared to the other popular ML methods, with an area under the received operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.95, an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 0.91, and a weighted F1-score of 0.83. Out of 64 initial features, 19 features were inferred as predictive of the severity of COVID-19 disease by the CoSP model. Therefore, an AI model predicting COVID-19 severity may be helpful for early intervention, optimizing resource allocation, and guiding personalized treatments, potentially enabling healthcare professionals to save lives and allocate resources effectively in the fight against the pandemic.

An AI-based novel system for predicting respiratory support in COVID-19 patients through CT imaging analysis

The proposed AI-based diagnostic system aims to predict the respiratory support required for COVID-19 patients by analyzing the correlation between COVID-19 lesions and the level of respiratory support provided to the patients. Computed tomography (CT) imaging will be used to analyze the three levels of respiratory support received by the patient: Level 0 (minimum support), Level 1 (non-invasive support such as soft oxygen), and Level 2 (invasive support such as mechanical ventilation). The system will begin by segmenting the COVID-19 lesions from the CT images and creating an appearance model for each lesion using a 2D, rotation-invariant, Markov-Gibbs random field (MGRF) model. Three MGRF-based models will be created, one for each level of respiratory support. This suggests that the system will be able to differentiate between different levels of severity in COVID-19 patients. The system will decide for each patient using a neural network-based fusion system, which combines the estimates of the Gibbs energy from the three MGRF-based models. The proposed system were assessed using 307 COVID-19-infected patients, achieving an accuracy of [Formula: see text], a sensitivity of [Formula: see text], and a specificity of [Formula: see text], indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.

Visual transformer and deep CNN prediction of high-risk COVID-19 infected patients using fusion of CT images and clinical data

BACKGROUND

Despite the globally reducing hospitalization rates and the much lower risks of Covid-19 mortality, accurate diagnosis of the infection stage and prediction of outcomes are clinically of interest. Advanced current technology can facilitate automating the process and help identifying those who are at higher risks of developing severe illness. This work explores and represents deep-learning-based schemes for predicting clinical outcomes in Covid-19 infected patients, using Visual Transformer and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), fed with 3D data fusion of CT scan images and patients' clinical data.

METHODS

We report on the efficiency of Video Swin Transformers and several CNN models fed with fusion datasets and CT scans only vs. a set of conventional classifiers fed with patients' clinical data only. A relatively large clinical dataset from 380 Covid-19 diagnosed patients was used to train/test the models.

RESULTS

Results show that the 3D Video Swin Transformers fed with the fusion datasets of 64 sectional CT scans + 67 clinical labels outperformed all other approaches for predicting outcomes in Covid-19-infected patients amongst all techniques (i.e., TPR = 0.95, FPR = 0.40, F0.5 score = 0.82, AUC = 0.77, Kappa = 0.6).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate how the utility of our proposed novel 3D data fusion approach through concatenating CT scan images with patients' clinical data can remarkably improve the performance of the models in predicting Covid-19 infection outcomes.

SIGNIFICANCE

Findings indicate possibilities of predicting the severity of outcome using patients' CT images and clinical data collected at the time of admission to hospital.

Decision trees for early prediction of inadequate immune response to coronavirus infections: a pilot study on COVID-19

Introduction

Few artificial intelligence models exist to predict severe forms of COVID-19. Most rely on post-infection laboratory data, hindering early treatment for high-risk individuals.

Methods

This study developed a machine learning model to predict inherent risk of severe symptoms after contracting SARS-CoV-2. Using a Decision Tree trained on 153 Alpha variant patients, demographic, clinical and immunogenetic markers were considered. Model performance was assessed on Alpha and Delta variant datasets. Key risk factors included age, gender, absence of KIR2DS2 gene (alone or with HLA-C C1 group alleles), presence of 14-bp polymorphism in HLA-G gene, presence of KIR2DS5 gene, and presence of KIR telomeric region A/A.

Results

The model achieved 83.01% accuracy for Alpha variant and 78.57% for Delta variant, with True Positive Rates of 80.82 and 77.78%, and True Negative Rates of 85.00% and 79.17%, respectively. The model showed high sensitivity in identifying individuals at risk.

Discussion

The present study demonstrates the potential of AI algorithms, combined with demographic, epidemiologic, and immunogenetic data, in identifying individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 and facilitating early treatment. Further studies are required for routine clinical integration.

Comprehensive analysis of clinical data for COVID-19 outcome estimation with machine learning models

COVID-19 is a global threat for the healthcare systems due to the rapid spread of the pathogen that causes it. In such situation, the clinicians must take important decisions, in an environment where medical resources can be insufficient. In this task, the computer-aided diagnosis systems can be very useful not only in the task of supporting the clinical decisions but also to perform relevant analyses, allowing them to understand better the disease and the factors that can identify the high risk patients. For those purposes, in this work, we use several machine learning algorithms to estimate the outcome of COVID-19 patients given their clinical information. Particularly, we perform 2 different studies: the first one estimates whether the patient is at low or at high risk of death whereas the second estimates if the patient needs hospitalization or not. The results of the analyses of this work show the most relevant features for each studied scenario, as well as the classification performance of the considered machine learning models. In particular, the XGBoost algorithm is able to estimate the need for hospitalization of a patient with an AUC-ROC of 0 . 8415 ± 0 . 0217 while it can also estimate the risk of death with an AUC-ROC of 0 . 7992 ± 0 . 0104 . Results have demonstrated the great potential of the proposal to determine those patients that need a greater amount of medical resources for being at a higher risk. This provides the healthcare services with a tool to better manage their resources.

A machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence triage-prediction system for COVID-19

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 contagion, severely disrupted the healthcare infrastructure. Various countries have developed COVID-19 vaccines that have effectively prevented the severe symptoms caused by the virus to a certain extent. However, a small section of people continues to perish. Artificial intelligence advances have revolutionized healthcare diagnosis and prognosis infrastructure. In this study, we predict the severity of COVID-19 using heterogenous Machine Learning and Deep Learning algorithms by considering clinical markers, vital signs, and other critical factors. This study extensively reviews various classifier architectures to predict the COVID-19 severity. We built and evaluated multiple pipelines entailing combinations of five state-of-the-art data-balancing techniques (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), Adaptive Synthetic, Borderline SMOTE, SMOTE with Tomek links, and SMOTE with Edited Nearest Neighbor (ENN)) and twelve heterogeneous classifiers such as Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, Xgboost, Extratrees, Adaboost, Light GBM, Catboost, and 1-D Convolution Neural Network. The best-performing pipeline consists of Random Forest trained on Borderline SMOTE balanced data that produced the highest recall of 83%. We deployed Explainable Artificial Intelligence tools such as Shapley Additive Explanations and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations, ELI5, Qlattice, Anchor, and Feature Importance to demystify complex tree-based ensemble models. These tools provide valuable insights into the significance of critical features in the severity prediction of a COVID-19 patient. It was observed that changes in respiratory rate, blood pressure, lactate, and calcium values were the primary contributors to the increase in severity of a COVID-19 patient. This architecture aims to be an explainable decision-support triaging system for medical professionals in countries lacking advanced medical technology and infrastructure to reduce fatalities.

Predictive Attributes for Developing Long COVID-A Study Using Machine Learning and Real-World Data from Primary Care Physicians in Germany

(1) In the present study, we used data comprising patient medical histories from a panel of primary care practices in Germany to predict post-COVID-19 conditions in patients after COVID-19 diagnosis and to evaluate the relevant factors associated with these conditions using machine learning methods. (2) Methods: Data retrieved from the IQVIA^TM Disease Analyzer database were used. Patients with at least one COVID-19 diagnosis between January 2020 and July 2022 were selected for inclusion in the study. Age, sex, and the complete history of diagnoses and prescription data before COVID-19 infection at the respective primary care practice were extracted for each patient. A gradient boosting classifier (LGBM) was deployed. The prepared design matrix was randomly divided into train (80%) and test data (20%). After optimizing the hyperparameters of the LGBM classifier by maximizing the F2 score, model performance was evaluated using several test metrics. We calculated SHAP values to evaluate the importance of the individual features, but more importantly, to evaluate the direction of influence of each feature in our dataset, i.e., whether it is positively or negatively associated with a diagnosis of long COVID. (3) Results: In both the train and test data sets, the model showed a high recall (sensitivity) of 81% and 72% and a high specificity of 80% and 80%; this was offset, however, by a moderate precision of 8% and 7% and an F2-score of 0.28 and 0.25. The most common predictive features identified using SHAP included COVID-19 variant, physician practice, age, distinct number of diagnoses and therapies, sick days ratio, sex, vaccination rate, somatoform disorders, migraine, back pain, asthma, malaise and fatigue, as well as cough preparations. (4) Conclusions: The present exploratory study describes an initial investigation of the prediction of potential features increasing the risk of developing long COVID after COVID-19 infection by using the patient history from electronic medical records before COVID-19 infection in primary care practices in Germany using machine learning. Notably, we identified several predictive features for the development of long COVID in patient demographics and their medical histories.

A Survey of COVID-19 Diagnosis Using Routine Blood Tests with the Aid of Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing a disease called COVID-19, is a class of acute respiratory syndrome that has considerably affected the global economy and healthcare system. This virus is diagnosed using a traditional technique known as the Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) test. However, RT-PCR customarily outputs a lot of false-negative and incorrect results. Current works indicate that COVID-19 can also be diagnosed using imaging resolutions, including CT scans, X-rays, and blood tests. Nevertheless, X-rays and CT scans cannot always be used for patient screening because of high costs, radiation doses, and an insufficient number of devices. Therefore, there is a requirement for a less expensive and faster diagnostic model to recognize the positive and negative cases of COVID-19. Blood tests are easily performed and cost less than RT-PCR and imaging tests. Since biochemical parameters in routine blood tests vary during the COVID-19 infection, they may supply physicians with exact information about the diagnosis of COVID-19. This study reviewed some newly emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to diagnose COVID-19 using routine blood tests. We gathered information about research resources and inspected 92 articles that were carefully chosen from a variety of publishers, such as IEEE, Springer, Elsevier, and MDPI. Then, these 92 studies are classified into two tables which contain articles that use machine Learning and deep Learning models to diagnose COVID-19 while using routine blood test datasets. In these studies, for diagnosing COVID-19, Random Forest and logistic regression are the most widely used machine learning methods and the most widely used performance metrics are accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Finally, we conclude by discussing and analyzing these studies which use machine learning and deep learning models and routine blood test datasets for COVID-19 detection. This survey can be the starting point for a novice-/beginner-level researcher to perform on COVID-19 classification.

BIO-CXRNET: a robust multimodal stacking machine learning technique for mortality risk prediction of COVID-19 patients using chest X-ray images and clinical data

Nowadays, quick, and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19 is a pressing need. This study presents a multimodal system to meet this need. The presented system employs a machine learning module that learns the required knowledge from the datasets collected from 930 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Italy during the first wave of COVID-19 (March-June 2020). The dataset consists of twenty-five biomarkers from electronic health record and Chest X-ray (CXR) images. It is found that the system can diagnose low- or high-risk patients with an accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score of 89.03%, 90.44%, and 89.03%, respectively. The system exhibits 6% higher accuracy than the systems that employ either CXR images or biomarker data. In addition, the system can calculate the mortality risk of high-risk patients using multivariate logistic regression-based nomogram scoring technique. Interested physicians can use the presented system to predict the early mortality risks of COVID-19 patients using the web-link: Covid-severity-grading-AI. In this case, a physician needs to input the following information: CXR image file, Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH), Oxygen Saturation (O2%), White Blood Cells Count, C-reactive protein, and Age. This way, this study contributes to the management of COVID-19 patients by predicting early mortality risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00521-023-08606-w.

Semi-Supervised KPCA-Based Monitoring Techniques for Detecting COVID-19 Infection through Blood Tests

This study introduces a new method for identifying COVID-19 infections using blood test data as part of an anomaly detection problem by combining the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and one-class support vector machine (OCSVM). This approach aims to differentiate healthy individuals from those infected with COVID-19 using blood test samples. The KPCA model is used to identify nonlinear patterns in the data, and the OCSVM is used to detect abnormal features. This approach is semi-supervised as it uses unlabeled data during training and only requires data from healthy cases. The method's performance was tested using two sets of blood test samples from hospitals in Brazil and Italy. Compared to other semi-supervised models, such as KPCA-based isolation forest (iForest), local outlier factor (LOF), elliptical envelope (EE) schemes, independent component analysis (ICA), and PCA-based OCSVM, the proposed KPCA-OSVM approach achieved enhanced discrimination performance for detecting potential COVID-19 infections. For the two COVID-19 blood test datasets that were considered, the proposed approach attained an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of 0.99, indicating a high accuracy level in distinguishing between positive and negative samples based on the test results. The study suggests that this approach is a promising solution for detecting COVID-19 infections without labeled data.

Machine learning to analyse omic-data for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis

BACKGROUND

With the global spread of COVID-19, the world has seen many patients, including many severe cases. The rapid development of machine learning (ML) has made significant disease diagnosis and prediction achievements. Current studies have confirmed that omics data at the host level can reflect the development process and prognosis of the disease. Since early diagnosis and effective treatment of severe COVID-19 patients remains challenging, this research aims to use omics data in different ML models for COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis. We used several ML models on omics data of a large number of individuals to first predict whether patients are COVID-19 positive or negative, followed by the severity of the disease.

RESULTS

On the COVID-19 diagnosis task, we got the best AUC of 0.99 with our multilayer perceptron model and the highest F1-score of 0.95 with our logistic regression (LR) model. For the severity prediction task, we achieved the highest accuracy of 0.76 with an LR model. Beyond classification and predictive modeling, our study founds ML models performed better on integrated multi-omics data, rather than single omics. By comparing top features from different omics dataset, we also found the robustness of our model, with a wider range of applicability in diverse dataset related to COVID-19. Additionally, we have found that omics-based models performed better than image or physiological feature-based models, proving the importance of the omics-based dataset for future model development.

CONCLUSIONS

This study diagnoses COVID-19 positive cases and predicts accurate severity levels. It lowers the dependence on clinical data and professional judgment, by leveraging the utilization of state-of-the-art models. our model showed wider applicability across different omics dataset, which is highly transferable in other respiratory or similar diseases. Hospital and public health care mechanisms can optimize the distribution of medical resources and improve the robustness of the medical system.

Predictive models for COVID-19 detection using routine blood tests and machine learning

The problem of accurate, fast, and inexpensive COVID-19 tests has been urgent till now. Standard COVID-19 tests need high-cost reagents and specialized laboratories with high safety requirements, are time-consuming. Data of routine blood tests as a base of SARS-CoV-2 invasion detection allows using the most practical medicine facilities. But blood tests give general information about a patient's state, which is not directly associated with COVID-19. COVID-19-specific features should be selected from the list of standard blood characteristics, and decision-making software based on appropriate clinical data should be created. This review describes the abilities to develop predictive models for COVID-19 detection using routine blood tests and machine learning.

Prognosing the risk of COVID-19 death through a machine learning-based routine blood panel: A retrospective study in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Despite an extensive network of primary care availability, Brazil has suffered profoundly during the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing the greatest sanitary collapse in its history. Thus, it is important to understand phenotype risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection severity in the Brazilian population in order to provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of the disease.

OBJECTIVE

This study proposes to predict the risk of COVID-19 death through machine learning, using blood biomarkers data from patients admitted to two large hospitals in Brazil.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected blood biomarkers data in a 24-h time window from 6,979 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by positive RT-PCR admitted to two large hospitals in Brazil, of whom 291 (4.2%) died and 6,688 (95.8%) were discharged. We then developed a large-scale exploration of risk models to predict the probability of COVID-19 severity, finally choosing the best performing model regarding the average AUROC. To improve generalizability, for each model five different testing scenarios were conducted, including two external validations.

RESULTS

We developed a machine learning-based panel composed of parameters extracted from the complete blood count (lymphocytes, MCV, platelets and RDW), in addition to C-Reactive Protein, which yielded an average AUROC of 0.91 ± 0.01 to predict death by COVID-19 confirmed by positive RT-PCR within a 24-h window.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that routine laboratory variables could be useful to identify COVID-19 patients under higher risk of death using machine learning. Further studies are needed for validating the model in other populations and contexts, since the natural history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its consequences on the hematopoietic system and other organs is still quite recent.

Influence of Co-morbidities During SARS-CoV-2 Infection in an Indian Population

Background

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic the interindividual variability in the course of the disease has been reported, indicating a wide range of factors influencing it. Factors which were the most often associated with increased COVID-19 severity include higher age, obesity and diabetes. The influence of cytokine storm is complex, reflecting the complexity of the immunological processes triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection. A modern challenge such as a worldwide pandemic requires modern solutions, which in this case is harnessing the machine learning for the purpose of analysing the differences in the clinical properties of the populations affected by the disease, followed by grading its significance, consequently leading to creation of tool applicable for assessing the individual risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

Biochemical and morphological parameters values of 5,000 patients (Curisin Healthcare (India) were gathered and used for calculation of eGFR, SII index and N/L ratio. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient formula was used for assessment of correlations between each of the features in the population and the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Feature importance was evaluated by fitting a Random Forest machine learning model to the data and examining their predictive value. Its accuracy was measured as the F1 Score.

Results

The parameters which showed the highest correlation coefficient were age, random serum glucose, serum urea, gender and serum cholesterol, whereas the highest inverse correlation coefficient was assessed for alanine transaminase, red blood cells count and serum creatinine. The accuracy of created model for differentiating positive from negative SARS-CoV-2 cases was 97%. Features of highest importance were age, alanine transaminase, random serum glucose and red blood cells count.

Conclusion

The current analysis indicates a number of parameters available for a routine screening in clinical setting. It also presents a tool created on the basis of these parameters, useful for assessing the individual risk of developing COVID-19 in patients. The limitation of the study is the demographic specificity of the studied population, which might restrict its general applicability.

Machine learning-assisted prediction of pneumonia based on non-invasive measures

Background

Pneumonia is an infection of the lungs that is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. The use of machine learning systems to detect respiratory diseases via non-invasive measures such as physical and laboratory parameters is gaining momentum and has been proposed to decrease diagnostic uncertainty associated with bacterial pneumonia. Herein, this study conducted several experiments using eight machine learning models to predict pneumonia based on biomarkers, laboratory parameters, and physical features.

Methods

We perform machine-learning analysis on 535 different patients, each with 45 features. Data normalization to rescale all real-valued features was performed. Since it is a binary problem, we categorized each patient into one class at a time. We designed three experiments to evaluate the models: (1) feature selection techniques to select appropriate features for the models, (2) experiments on the imbalanced original dataset, and (3) experiments on the SMOTE data. We then compared eight machine learning models to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting pneumonia

Results

Biomarkers such as C-reactive protein and procalcitonin demonstrated the most significant discriminating power. Ensemble machine learning models such as RF (accuracy = 92.0%, precision = 91.3%, recall = 96.0%, f1-Score = 93.6%) and XGBoost (accuracy = 90.8%, precision = 92.6%, recall = 92.3%, f1-score = 92.4%) achieved the highest performance accuracy on the original dataset with AUCs of 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. On the SMOTE dataset, RF and XGBoost achieved the highest prediction results with f1-scores of 92.0 and 91.2%, respectively. Also, AUC of 0.97 was achieved for both RF and XGBoost models.

Conclusions

Our models showed that in the diagnosis of pneumonia, individual clinical history, laboratory indicators, and symptoms do not have adequate discriminatory power. We can also conclude that the ensemble ML models performed better in this study.

Machine learning models for prediction of co-occurrence of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Diabetic mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause significant healthcare burden globally and often co-exists. Current approaches often fail to identify many people with co-occurrence of DM and CVD, leading to delay in healthcare seeking, increased complications and morbidity. In this paper, we aimed to develop and evaluate a two-stage machine learning (ML) model to predict the co-occurrence of DM and CVD.

Methods

We used the diabetes complications screening research initiative (DiScRi) dataset containing >200 variables from >2000 participants. In the first stage, we used two ML models (logistic regression and Evimp functions) implemented in multivariate adaptive regression splines model to infer the significant common risk factors for DM and CVD and applied the correlation matrix to reduce redundancy. In the second stage, we used classification and regression algorithm to develop our model. We evaluated the prediction models using prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity as performance metrics.

Results

Common risk factors for DM and CVD co-occurrence was family history of the diseases, gender, deep breathing heart rate change, lying to standing blood pressure change, HbA1c, HDL and TC\HDL ratio. The predictive model showed that the participants with HbA1c >6.45 and TC\HDL ratio > 5.5 were at risk of developing both diseases (97.9% probability). In contrast, participants with HbA1c >6.45 and TC\HDL ratio ≤ 5.5 were more likely to have only DM (84.5% probability) and those with HbA1c ≤5.45 and HDL >1.45 were likely to be healthy (82.4%. probability). Further, participants with HbA1c ≤5.45 and HDL <1.45 were at risk of only CVD (100% probability). The predictive accuracy of the ML model to detect co-occurrence of DM and CVD is 94.09%, sensitivity 93.5%, and specificity 95.8%.

Conclusions

Our ML model can significantly predict with high accuracy the co-occurrence of DM and CVD in people attending a screening program. This might help in early detection of patients with DM and CVD who could benefit from preventive treatment and reduce future healthcare burden.

Machine learning model for predicting the length of stay in the intensive care unit for Covid-19 patients in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia

The COVID-19 virus has spread rapidally throughout the world. Managing resources is one of the biggest challenges that healthcare providers around the world face during the pandemic. Allocating the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds' capacity is important since COVID-19 is a respiratory disease and some patients need to be admitted to the hospital with an urgent need for oxygen support, ventilation, and/or intensive medical care. In the battle against COVID-19, many governments utilized technology, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI), to contain the pandemic and limit its hazardous effects. In this paper, Machine Learning models (ML) were developed to help in detecting the COVID-19 patients’ need for the ICU and the estimated duration of their stay. Four ML algorithms were utilized: Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Ensemble models were trained and validated on a dataset of 895 COVID-19 patients admitted to King Fahad University hospital in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. The conducted experiments show that the Length of Stay (LoS) in the ICU can be predicted with the highest accuracy by applying the RF model for prediction, as the achieved accuracy was 94.16%. In terms of the contributor factors to the length of stay in the ICU, correlation results showed that age, C-Reactive Protein (CRP), nasal oxygen support days are the top related factors. By searching the literature, there is no published work that used the Saudi Arabia dataset to predict the need for ICU with the number of days needed. This contribution is hoped to pave the path for hospitals and healthcare providers to manage their resources more efficiently and to help in saving lives.

An Ensemble Learning Model for COVID-19 Detection from Blood Test Samples

Current research endeavors in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) methods in the diagnosis of the COVID-19 disease has proven indispensable with very promising results. Despite these promising results, there are still limitations in real-time detection of COVID-19 using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test data, such as limited datasets, imbalance classes, a high misclassification rate of models, and the need for specialized research in identifying the best features and thus improving prediction rates. This study aims to investigate and apply the ensemble learning approach to develop prediction models for effective detection of COVID-19 using routine laboratory blood test results. Hence, an ensemble machine learning-based COVID-19 detection system is presented, aiming to aid clinicians to diagnose this virus effectively. The experiment was conducted using custom convolutional neural network (CNN) models as a first-stage classifier and 15 supervised machine learning algorithms as a second-stage classifier: K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine (Linear and RBF), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Random Forest, MultiLayer Perceptron, AdaBoost, ExtraTrees, Logistic Regression, Linear and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (LDA/QDA), Passive, Ridge, and Stochastic Gradient Descent Classifier. Our findings show that an ensemble learning model based on DNN and ExtraTrees achieved a mean accuracy of 99.28% and area under curve (AUC) of 99.4%, while AdaBoost gave a mean accuracy of 99.28% and AUC of 98.8% on the San Raffaele Hospital dataset, respectively. The comparison of the proposed COVID-19 detection approach with other state-of-the-art approaches using the same dataset shows that the proposed method outperforms several other COVID-19 diagnostics methods.

Reported Adverse Effects and Attitudes among Arab Populations Following COVID-19 Vaccination: A Large-Scale Multinational Study Implementing Machine Learning Tools in Predicting Post-Vaccination Adverse Effects Based on Predisposing Factors

Background: The unprecedented global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has imposed huge challenges on the healthcare facilities, and impacted every aspect of life. This has led to the development of several vaccines against COVID-19 within one year. This study aimed to assess the attitudes and the side effects among Arab communities after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine and use of machine learning (ML) tools to predict post-vaccination side effects based on predisposing factors. Methods: An online-based multinational survey was carried out via social media platforms from 14 June to 31 August 2021, targeting individuals who received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine from 22 Arab countries. Descriptive statistics, correlation, and chi-square tests were used to analyze the data. Moreover, extensive ML tools were utilized to predict 30 post vaccination adverse effects and their severity based on 15 predisposing factors. The importance of distinct predisposing factors in predicting particular side effects was determined using global feature importance employing gradient boost as AutoML. Results: A total of 10,064 participants from 19 Arab countries were included in this study. Around 56% were female and 59% were aged from 20 to 39 years old. A high rate of vaccine hesitancy (51%) was reported among participants. Almost 88% of the participants were vaccinated with one of three COVID-19 vaccines, including Pfizer-BioNTech (52.8%), AstraZeneca (20.7%), and Sinopharm (14.2%). About 72% of participants experienced post-vaccination side effects. This study reports statistically significant associations (p < 0.01) between various predisposing factors and post-vaccinations side effects. In terms of predicting post-vaccination side effects, gradient boost, random forest, and XGBoost outperformed other ML methods. The most important predisposing factors for predicting certain side effects (i.e., tiredness, fever, headache, injection site pain and swelling, myalgia, and sleepiness and laziness) were revealed to be the number of doses, gender, type of vaccine, age, and hesitancy to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusions: The reported side effects following COVID-19 vaccination among Arab populations are usually non-life-threatening; flu-like symptoms and injection site pain. Certain predisposing factors have greater weight and importance as input data in predicting post-vaccination side effects. Based on the most significant input data, ML can also be used to predict these side effects; people with certain predicted side effects may require additional medical attention, or possibly hospitalization.

Deep Learning Hybrid Models for COVID-19 Prediction

COVID-19 is a highly contagious virus. Blood test is one of effective method for COVID-19 diagnosis. However, the issues of blood test are time-consuming and lack of medical staffs. In this paper, four deep learning hybrid models are proposed to address these issues, i.e., CNN+GRU, CNN+Bi-RNN, CNN+Bi-LSTM, CNN+Bi-GRU. Besides, two best models CNN and CNN+LSTM from Turabieh et al. and Alakus et al. are implemented, respectively. Blood test data from Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein is used to train and test six models. The proposed best model CNN+Bi-GRU is accuracy of 0.9415, precision of 0.9417, recall of 0.9417, F1-score of 0.9417, AUC of 0.91, which outperforms the best models from Turabieh et al. and Alakus et al. Furthermore, the proposed model can help patients to get blood test results faster than traditional manual tests, and do not have errors caused by fatigue. We can envisage a wide deployment of proposed model in hospitals to alleviate the testing pressure from medical workers, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries.

Multiplex Immunoassay for Prediction of Disease Severity Associated with the Cytokine Storm in COVID-19 Cases

Severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic virus infections are often associated with the uncontrolled release of proinflammatory cytokines, known as a "cytokine storm." We present a protocol for multiplex analysis of three cytokines, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-a), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and IL-10, which are typically elevated in cytokine storm events and may be used as a predictive biomarker profile of disease severity or disease course.

A deep learning approach for predicting severity of COVID-19 patients using a parsimonious set of laboratory markers

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has caused tremendous healthcare burden worldwide. Our focus was to develop a practical and easy-to-deploy system to predict the severe manifestation of disease in patients with COVID-19 with an aim to assist clinicians in triage and treatment decisions. Our proposed predictive algorithm is a trained artificial intelligence-based network using 8,427 COVID-19 patient records from four healthcare systems. The model provides a severity risk score along with likelihoods of various clinical outcomes, namely ventilator use and mortality. The trained model using patient age and nine laboratory markers has the prediction accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78, 95% CI: 0.77–0.82, and the negative predictive value NPV of 0.86, 95% CI: 0.84–0.88 for the need to use a ventilator and has an accuracy with AUC of 0.85, 95% CI: 0.84–0.86, and the NPV of 0.94, 95% CI: 0.92–0.96 for predicting in-hospital 30-day mortality.

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Algorithm using 9 laboratory markers & age may predict severity in patients with COVID-19

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Model was trained and tested on a multicenter sample of 10,937 patients

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Algorithm can predict ventilator use (NPV, 0.86) and mortality (NPV, 0.94)

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High NPV suggests utility as an adjunct to aid in triaging of patients with COVID-19

Disease-course adapting machine learning prognostication models in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients: a multi-centre cohort study with external validation

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is challenging health care systems globally. The disease disproportionately affects the elderly population, both in terms of disease severity and mortality risk.

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate machine learning–based prognostication models for critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients, which dynamically incorporated multifaceted clinical information on evolution of the disease.

Methods

This multicenter cohort study (COVIP study) obtained patient data from 151 intensive care units (ICUs) from 26 countries. Different models based on the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were derived as baseline models that included admission variables only. We subsequently included clinical events and time-to-event as additional variables to derive the final models using the same algorithms and compared their performance with that of the baseline group. Furthermore, we derived baseline and final models on a European patient cohort, which were externally validated on a non-European cohort that included Asian, African, and US patients.

Results

In total, 1432 elderly (≥70 years old) COVID-19–positive patients admitted to an ICU were included for analysis. Of these, 809 (56.49%) patients survived up to 30 days after admission. The average length of stay was 21.6 (SD 18.2) days. Final models that incorporated clinical events and time-to-event information provided superior performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81; 95% CI 0.804-0.811), with respect to both the baseline models that used admission variables only and conventional ICU prediction models (SOFA score, P<.001). The average precision increased from 0.65 (95% CI 0.650-0.655) to 0.77 (95% CI 0.759-0.770).

Conclusions

Integrating important clinical events and time-to-event information led to a superior accuracy of 30-day mortality prediction compared with models based on the admission information and conventional ICU prediction models. This study shows that machine-learning models provide additional information and may support complex decision-making in critically ill elderly COVID-19 patients.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04321265; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04321265

A deep learning approach using effective preprocessing techniques to detect COVID-19 from chest CT-scan and X-ray images

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory viral disease first reported in late 2019 that has spread worldwide. Although some wealthy countries have made significant progress in detecting and containing this disease, most underdeveloped countries are still struggling to identify COVID-19 cases in large populations. With the rising number of COVID-19 cases, there are often insufficient COVID-19 diagnostic kits and related resources in such countries. However, other basic diagnostic resources often do exist, which motivated us to develop Deep Learning models to assist clinicians and radiologists to provide prompt diagnostic support to the patients. In this study, we have developed a deep learning-based COVID-19 case detection model trained with a dataset consisting of chest CT scans and X-ray images. A modified ResNet50V2 architecture was employed as deep learning architecture in the proposed model. The dataset utilized to train the model was collected from various publicly available sources and included four class labels: confirmed COVID-19, normal controls and confirmed viral and bacterial pneumonia cases. The aggregated dataset was preprocessed through a sharpening filter before feeding the dataset into the proposed model. This model attained an accuracy of 96.452% for four-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Bacterial pneumonia/Viral pneumonia), 97.242% for three-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Bacterial pneumonia) and 98.954% for two-class cases (COVID-19/Viral pneumonia) using chest X-ray images. The model acquired a comprehensive accuracy of 99.012% for three-class cases (COVID-19/Normal/Community-acquired pneumonia) and 99.99% for two-class cases (Normal/COVID-19) using CT-scan images of the chest. This high accuracy presents a new and potentially important resource to enable radiologists to identify and rapidly diagnose COVID-19 cases with only basic but widely available equipment.

Deep Generative Learning-Based 1-SVM Detectors for Unsupervised COVID-19 Infection Detection Using Blood Tests

A sample blood test has recently become an important tool to help identify false-positive/false-negative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) tests. Importantly, this is mainly because it is an inexpensive and handy option to detect the potential COVID-19 patients. However, this test should be conducted by certified laboratories, expensive equipment, and trained personnel, and 3-4 h are needed to deliver results. Furthermore, it has relatively large false-negative rates around 15%-20%. Consequently, an alternative and more accessible solution, quicker and less costly, is needed. This article introduces flexible and unsupervised data-driven approaches to detect the COVID-19 infection based on blood test samples. In other words, we address the problem of COVID-19 infection detection using a blood test as an anomaly detection problem through an unsupervised deep hybrid model. Essentially, we amalgamate the features extraction capability of the variational autoencoder (VAE) and the detection sensitivity of the one-class support vector machine (1SVM) algorithm. Two sets of routine blood tests samples from the Albert Einstein Hospital, S ao Paulo, Brazil, and the San Raffaele Hospital, Milan, Italy, are used to assess the performance of the investigated deep learning models. Here, missing values have been imputed based on a random forest regressor. Compared to generative adversarial networks (GANs), deep belief network (DBN), and restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM)-based 1SVM, the traditional VAE, GAN, DBN, and RBM with softmax layer as discriminator layer, and the standalone 1SVM, the proposed VAE-based 1SVM detector offers superior discrimination performance of potential COVID-19 infections. Results also revealed that the deep learning-driven 1SVM detection approaches provide promising detection performance compared to the conventional deep learning models.

Effects of Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccination during COVID-19 infection

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the infection of highly contagious severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as the novel coronavirus. In most countries, the containment of this virus spread is not controlled, which is driving the pandemic towards a more difficult phase. In this study, we investigated the impact of the Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccination on the severity and mortality of COVID-19 by performing transcriptomic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 infected and BCG vaccinated samples in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). A set of common differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified and seeded into their functional enrichment analyses via Gene Ontology (GO)-based functional terms and pre-annotated molecular pathways databases, and their Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) network analysis. We further analysed the regulatory elements, possible comorbidities and putative drug candidates for COVID-19 patients who have not been BCG-vaccinated. Differential expression analyses of both BCG-vaccinated and COVID-19 infected samples identified 62 shared DEGs indicating their discordant expression pattern in their respected conditions compared to control. Next, PPI analysis of those DEGs revealed 10 hub genes, namely ITGB2, CXCL8, CXCL1, CCR2, IFNG, CCL4, PTGS2, ADORA3, TLR5 and CD33. Functional enrichment analyses found significantly enriched pathways/GO terms including cytokine activities, lysosome, IL-17 signalling pathway, TNF-signalling pathways. Moreover, a set of identified TFs, miRNAs and potential drug molecules were further investigated to assess their biological involvements in COVID-19 and their therapeutic possibilities. Findings showed significant genetic interactions between BCG vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting an interesting prospect of the BCG vaccine in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope it may potentially trigger further research on this critical phenomenon to combat COVID-19 spread.

Sociodemographic and clinical features predictive of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity across healthcare visit-types

Background

Despite increased testing efforts and the deployment of vaccines, COVID-19 cases and death toll continue to rise at record rates. Health systems routinely collect clinical and non-clinical information in electronic health records (EHR), yet little is known about how the minimal or intermediate spectra of EHR data can be leveraged to characterize patient SARS-CoV-2 pretest probability in support of interventional strategies.

Methods and findings

We modeled patient pretest probability for SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and determined which features were contributing to the prediction and relative to patients triaged in inpatient, outpatient, and telehealth/drive-up visit-types. Data from the University of Washington (UW) Medicine Health System, which excluded UW Medicine care providers, included patients predominately residing in the Seattle Puget Sound area, were used to develop a gradient-boosting decision tree (GBDT) model. Patients were included if they had at least one visit prior to initial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing between January 01, 2020 through August 7, 2020. Model performance assessments used area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) and area-under-the-precision-recall (AUPR) curves. Feature performance assessments used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. The generalized pretest probability model using all available features achieved high overall discriminative performance (AUROC, 0.82). Performance among inpatients (AUROC, 0.86) was higher than telehealth/drive-up testing (AUROC, 0.81) or outpatient testing (AUROC, 0.76). The two-week test positivity rate in patient ZIP code was the most informative feature towards test positivity across visit-types. Geographic and sociodemographic factors were more important predictors of SARS-CoV-2 positivity than individual clinical characteristics.

Conclusions

Recent geographic and sociodemographic factors, routinely collected in EHR though not routinely considered in clinical care, are the strongest predictors of initial SARS-CoV-2 test result. These findings were consistent across visit types, informing our understanding of individual SARS-CoV-2 risk factors with implications for deployment of testing, outreach, and population-level prevention efforts.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality With Limited Attributes to Expedite Patient Prognosis and Triage: Retrospective Observational Study

Background

The onset and development of the COVID-19 pandemic have placed pressure on hospital resources and staff worldwide. The integration of more streamlined predictive modeling in prognosis and triage–related decision-making can partly ease this pressure.

Objective

The objective of this study is to assess the performance impact of dimensionality reduction on COVID-19 mortality prediction models, demonstrating the high impact of a limited number of features to limit the need for complex variable gathering before reaching meaningful risk labelling in clinical settings.

Methods

Standard machine learning classifiers were employed to predict an outcome of either death or recovery using 25 patient-level variables, spanning symptoms, comorbidities, and demographic information, from a geographically diverse sample representing 17 countries. The effects of feature reduction on the data were tested by running classifiers on a high-quality data set of 212 patients with populated entries for all 25 available features. The full data set was compared to two reduced variations with 7 features and 1 feature, respectively, extracted using univariate mutual information and chi-square testing. Classifier performance on each data set was then assessed on the basis of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and received operating characteristic–derived area under the curve metrics to quantify benefit or loss from reduction.

Results

The performance of the classifiers on the 212-patient sample resulted in strong mortality detection, with the highest performing model achieving specificity of 90.7% (95% CI 89.1%-92.3%) and sensitivity of 92.0% (95% CI 91.0%-92.9%). Dimensionality reduction provided strong benefits for performance. The baseline accuracy of a random forest classifier increased from 89.2% (95% CI 88.0%-90.4%) to 92.5% (95% CI 91.9%-93.0%) when training on 7 chi-square–extracted features and to 90.8% (95% CI 89.8%-91.7%) when training on 7 mutual information–extracted features. Reduction impact on a separate logistic classifier was mixed; however, when present, losses were marginal compared to the extent of feature reduction, altogether showing that reduction either improves performance or can reduce the variable-sourcing burden at hospital admission with little performance loss. Extreme feature reduction to a single most salient feature, often age, demonstrated large standalone explanatory power, with the best-performing model achieving an accuracy of 81.6% (95% CI 81.1%-82.1%); this demonstrates the relatively marginal improvement that additional variables bring to the tested models.

Conclusions

Predictive statistical models have promising performance in early prediction of death among patients with COVID-19. Strong dimensionality reduction was shown to further improve baseline performance on selected classifiers and only marginally reduce it in others, highlighting the importance of feature reduction in future model construction and the feasibility of deprioritizing large, hard-to-source, and nonessential feature sets in real world settings.

The prediction and analysis of COVID-19 epidemic trend by combining LSTM and Markov method

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly to countries all around the world from the end of 2019, which caused a great impact on global health and has had a huge impact on many countries. Since there is still no effective treatment, it is essential to making effective predictions for relevant departments to make responses and arrangements in advance. Under the limited data, the prediction error of LSTM model will increase over time, and its prone to big bias for medium- and long-term prediction. To overcome this problem, our study proposed a LSTM-Markov model, which uses Markov model to reduce the prediction error of LSTM model. Based on confirmed case data in the US, Britain, Brazil and Russia, we calculated the training errors of LSTM and constructed the probability transfer matrix of the Markov model by the errors. And finally, the prediction results were obtained by combining the output data of LSTM model with the prediction errors of Markov Model. The results show that: compared with the prediction results of the classical LSTM model, the average prediction error of LSTM-Markov is reduced by more than 75%, and the RMSE is reduced by more than 60%, the mean [Formula: see text] of LSTM-Markov is over 0.96. All those indicators demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of proposed LSTM-Markov model is higher than that of the LSTM model to reach more accurate prediction of COVID-19.

Machine Learning Approaches to Identify Patient Comorbidities and Symptoms That Increased Risk of Mortality in COVID-19

Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus, is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected may have pre-existing conditions that may interact with COVID-19 to increase symptom severity and mortality risk. COVID-19 patient comorbidities are likely to be informative regarding the individual risk of severe illness and mortality. Determining the degree to which comorbidities are associated with severe symptoms and mortality would thus greatly assist in COVID-19 care planning and provision. To assess this we performed a meta-analysis of published global literature, and machine learning predictive analysis using an aggregated COVID-19 global dataset. Our meta-analysis suggested that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cerebrovascular disease (CEVD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension as most significantly associated with COVID-19 severity in the current published literature. Machine learning classification using novel aggregated cohort data similarly found COPD, CVD, CKD, type 2 diabetes, malignancy, and hypertension, as well as asthma, as the most significant features for classifying those deceased versus those who survived COVID-19. While age and gender were the most significant predictors of mortality, in terms of symptom-comorbidity combinations, it was observed that Pneumonia-Hypertension, Pneumonia-Diabetes, and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS)-Hypertension showed the most significant associations with COVID-19 mortality. These results highlight the patient cohorts most likely to be at risk of COVID-19-related severe morbidity and mortality, which have implications for prioritization of hospital resources.

Short-Term Prediction of COVID-19 Cases Using Machine Learning Models

The first case in Bangladesh of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was reported on 8 March 2020, with the number of confirmed cases rapidly rising to over 175,000 by July 2020. In the absence of effective treatment, an essential tool of health policy is the modeling and forecasting of the progress of the pandemic. We, therefore, developed a cloud-based machine learning short-term forecasting model for Bangladesh, in which several regression-based machine learning models were applied to infected case data to estimate the number of COVID-19-infected people over the following seven days. This approach can accurately forecast the number of infected cases daily by training the prior 25 days sample data recorded on our web application. The outcomes of these efforts could aid the development and assessment of prevention strategies and identify factors that most affect the spread of COVID-19 infection in Bangladesh.