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Kar D, Taylor KS, Joy M, Venkatesan S, Meeraus W, Taylor S, Anand SN, Ferreira F, Jamie G, Fan X, de Lusignan S. Creating a Modified Version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score to Predict Mortality in People Older Than 16 Years: Model Development and Validation. J Med Internet Res 2024; 26:e56042. [PMID: 39186368 DOI: 10.2196/56042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2024] [Revised: 05/17/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 08/27/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND No single multimorbidity measure is validated for use in NHS (National Health Service) England's General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR), the nationwide primary care data set created for COVID-19 pandemic research. The Cambridge Multimorbidity Score (CMMS) is a validated tool for predicting mortality risk, with 37 conditions defined by Read Codes. The GDPPR uses the more internationally used Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine clinical terms (SNOMED CT). We previously developed a modified version of the CMMS using SNOMED CT, but the number of terms for the GDPPR data set is limited making it impossible to use this version. OBJECTIVE We aimed to develop and validate a modified version of CMMS using the clinical terms available for the GDPPR. METHODS We used pseudonymized data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), which has an extensive SNOMED CT list. From the 37 conditions in the original CMMS model, we selected conditions either with (1) high prevalence ratio (≥85%), calculated as the prevalence in the RSC data set but using the GDPPR set of SNOMED CT codes, divided by the prevalence included in the RSC SNOMED CT codes or (2) conditions with lower prevalence ratios but with high predictive value. The resulting set of conditions was included in Cox proportional hazard models to determine the 1-year mortality risk in a development data set (n=500,000) and construct a new CMMS model, following the methods for the original CMMS study, with variable reduction and parsimony, achieved by backward elimination and the Akaike information stopping criterion. Model validation involved obtaining 1-year mortality estimates for a synchronous data set (n=250,000) and 1-year and 5-year mortality estimates for an asynchronous data set (n=250,000). We compared the performance with that of the original CMMS and the modified CMMS that we previously developed using RSC data. RESULTS The initial model contained 22 conditions and our final model included 17 conditions. The conditions overlapped with those of the modified CMMS using the more extensive SNOMED CT list. For 1-year mortality, discrimination was high in both the derivation and validation data sets (Harrell C=0.92) and 5-year mortality was slightly lower (Harrell C=0.90). Calibration was reasonable following an adjustment for overfitting. The performance was similar to that of both the original and previous modified CMMS models. CONCLUSIONS The new modified version of the CMMS can be used on the GDPPR, a nationwide primary care data set of 54 million people, to enable adjustment for multimorbidity in predicting mortality in people in real-world vaccine effectiveness, pandemic planning, and other research studies. It requires 17 variables to produce a comparable performance with our previous modification of CMMS to enable it to be used in routine data using SNOMED CT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Debasish Kar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Peninsula Medical School, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United Kingdom
| | - Kathryn S Taylor
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sudhir Venkatesan
- Medical & Payer Evidence Statistics, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Wilhelmine Meeraus
- Medical Evidence, Vaccines and Immune Therapies, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Sylvia Taylor
- Medical Evidence, Vaccines and Immune Therapies, AstraZeneca PLC, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Sneha N Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Filipa Ferreira
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Xuejuan Fan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Royal College of General Practitioners of the United Kingdom, London, United Kingdom
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Gu X, Agrawal U, Midgley W, Bedston S, Anand SN, Goudie R, Byford R, Joy M, Jamie G, Hoang U, Ordóñez-Mena JM, Robertson C, Hobbs FDR, Akbari A, Sheikh A, de Lusignan S. COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake among pregnant women in national cohorts of England and Wales. NPJ Vaccines 2024; 9:147. [PMID: 39143081 PMCID: PMC11324884 DOI: 10.1038/s41541-024-00934-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 08/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Vaccines against COVID-19 and influenza can reduce the adverse outcomes caused by infections during pregnancy, but vaccine uptake among pregnant women has been suboptimal. We examined the COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake and disparities in pregnant women during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform vaccination interventions. We used data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre database in England and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The uptake of at least one dose of vaccine was 40.2% for COVID-19 and 41.8% for influenza among eligible pregnant women. We observed disparities in COVID-19 and influenza vaccine uptake, with socioeconomically deprived and ethnic minority groups showing lower vaccination rates. The suboptimal uptake of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines, especially in those from socioeconomically deprived backgrounds and Black, mixed or other ethnic groups, underscores the necessity for interventions to reduce vaccine hesitancy and enhance acceptance in pregnant women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinchun Gu
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Utkarsh Agrawal
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - William Midgley
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Stuart Bedston
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Sneha N Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rosalind Goudie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Uy Hoang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jose M Ordóñez-Mena
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- University of Strathclyde and Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
| | - F D Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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3
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Mukherjee M, Okusi C, Jamie G, Byford R, Ferreira F, Agarwal U, Weatherill D, Fletcher M, Quint JK, Romel Bhuia M, de Lusignan S, Sheikh SA. Modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based repeated cross-sectional study using the Research and Surveillance Centre primary care database. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2024; 42:100938. [PMID: 38846423 PMCID: PMC11153226 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Revised: 05/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/09/2024]
Abstract
Background There were substantial reductions in asthma exacerbations during the COVID-19 pandemic for reasons that remain poorly understood. We investigated changes in modifiable risk factors which might help explain the reductions in asthma exacerbations. Methods Multilevel generalised linear mixed models were fitted to examine changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbations during 2020-2022, compared to pre-pandemic year (2019), using observational, routine data from general practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre. Asthma exacerbations were defined as any of GP recorded: asthma exacerbations, prescriptions of prednisolone, accident and emergency department attendance or hospitalisation for asthma. Modifiable risk factors of interest were ownership of asthma self-management plan, asthma annual review, inhaled-corticosteroid (ICS) prescriptions, influenza vaccinations and respiratory-tract-infections (RTI). Findings Compared with 2019 (n = 550,995), in 2020 (n = 565,956) and 2022 (n = 562,167) (p < 0.05): asthma exacerbations declined from 67.1% to 51.9% and 61.1%, the proportion of people who had: asthma exacerbations reduced from 20.4% to 15.1% and 18.5%, asthma self-management plans increased from 28.6% to 37.7% and 55.9%; ICS prescriptions increased from 69.9% to 72.0% and 71.1%; influenza vaccinations increased from 14.2% to 25.4% and 55.3%; current smoking declined from 15.0% to 14.5% and 14.7%; lower-RTI declined from 10.5% to 5.3% and 8.1%; upper-RTI reduced from 10.7% to 5.8% and 7.6%. There was cluster effect of GP practices on asthma exacerbations (p = 0.001). People with asthma were more likely (p < 0.05) to have exacerbations if they had LRTI (seven times(x)), had URTI and ILI (both twice), were current smokers (1.4x), PPV vaccinated (1.3x), seasonal flu vaccinated (1.01x), took ICS (1.3x), had asthma reviews (1.09x). People with asthma were less likely to have exacerbations if they had self-management plan (7%), and were partially (4%) than fully COVID-19 vaccinated. Interpretation We have identified changes in modifiable risk factors for asthma exacerbation that need to be maintained in the post-pandemic era. Funding Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research and Health Data Research UK.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mome Mukherjee
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK Better Care, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK BREATHE Data Hub, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Cecilia Okusi
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
| | - Filipa Ferreira
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
| | - Utkarsh Agarwal
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
| | - David Weatherill
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Monica Fletcher
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK BREATHE Data Hub, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Jennifer K. Quint
- HDR UK BREATHE Data Hub, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- School of Public Health & National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Mohammad Romel Bhuia
- Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology (SUST), Sylhet, 3114, Bangladesh
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
- Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP), 30 Euston Square, London, NW1 2FB, UK
| | - Sir Aziz Sheikh
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK Better Care, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK BREATHE Data Hub, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Eagle House, Walton Well Rd, Oxford, OX2 6ED, UK
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Mukherjee M, Okusi C, Jamie G, Byford R, Ferreira F, Fletcher M, de Lusignan S, Sheikh A. Deploying an asthma dashboard to support quality improvement across a nationally representative sentinel network of 7.6 million people in England. NPJ Prim Care Respir Med 2024; 34:18. [PMID: 38951547 PMCID: PMC11217285 DOI: 10.1038/s41533-024-00377-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 07/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Every year, there are ~100,000 hospital admissions for asthma in the UK, many of which are potentially preventable. Evidence suggests that carefully conceptualised and implemented audit and feedback (A&F) cycles have the potential to improve clinical outcomes for those with chronic conditions. We wanted to investigate the technical feasibility of developing a near-real time asthma dashboard to support A&F interventions for asthma management in primary care. We extracted cross-sectional data on asthma from 756 participating GP practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RCGP RSC) database in England comprising 7.6 million registered people. Summary indicators for a GP practice were compared to all participating RCGP RSC practices using practice-level data, for the week 6-12th-Mar-2023. A weekly, automated asthma dashboard with features that can support electronic-A&F cycles that compared key asthma indicators for a GP practice to RCGP RSC could be created ( https://tinyurl.com/3ydtrt85 ): 12-weeks-incidence 0.4% vs 0.4%, annual prevalence 6.1% vs 6.7%, inhaled relievers to preventer 1.2 vs 1.1, self-management plan given 83.4% vs 60.8%, annual reviews 36.8% vs 57.3%, prednisolone prescriptions 2.0% vs 3.2%, influenza vaccination 56.6% vs 55.5%, pneumococcal vaccination ever (aged ≥65 years) 90.2% vs 84.1% and current smokers 14.9% vs 14.8%. Across the RCGP RSC, the rate of hospitalisations was 0.024%; comparative data had to be suppressed for the study practice because of small numbers. We have successfully created an automated near real-time asthma dashboard that can be used to support A&F initiatives to improve asthma care and outcomes in primary care.
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Grants
- This work is carried out with the support of BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004] in partnership with Oxford-RCGP Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID), a trusted research environment. BREATHE is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Health Data Research UK is funded by UK Research and Innovation, the Medical Research Council, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Research, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Health and Care Research Wales, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Public Health Agency, Northern Ireland), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. This work was also funded by The Health Data Research UK, reference EDIN1 and Asthma + Lung UK, reference AUK-AC-2018-01.
- No Relevant Funding
- Health Data Research UK, grant number EDIN1
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Affiliation(s)
- Mome Mukherjee
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- HDR UK BREATHE Respiratory Data Hub, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
- HDR UK Better Care, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
| | - Cecilia Okusi
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Filipa Ferreira
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Monica Fletcher
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK BREATHE Respiratory Data Hub, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Clinical Informatics and Health Outcomes Research Group, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), London, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK BREATHE Respiratory Data Hub, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- HDR UK Better Care, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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5
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Whitaker H, Willam N, Cottrell S, Goudie R, Andrews N, Evans J, Moore C, Agrawal U, Hassell K, Gunson R, Zitha J, Anand S, Sebastian‐Pillai P, Kalapotharakou P, Okusi C, Hoschler K, Jamie G, Kele B, Hamilton M, Couzens A, Quinot C, Pheasant K, Byford R, Marsh K, Robertson C, de Lusignan S, Williams C, Zambon M, McMenamin J, Watson C. End of 2022/23 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary Care in Great Britain. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024; 18:e13295. [PMID: 38744684 PMCID: PMC11093773 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2024] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The 2022/23 influenza season in the United Kingdom saw the return of influenza to prepandemic levels following two seasons with low influenza activity. The early season was dominated by A(H3N2), with cocirculation of A(H1N1), reaching a peak late December 2022, while influenza B circulated at low levels during the latter part of the season. From September to March 2022/23, influenza vaccines were offered, free of charge, to all aged 2-13 (and 14-15 in Scotland and Wales), adults up to 49 years of age with clinical risk conditions and adults aged 50 and above across the mainland United Kingdom. METHODS End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates against sentinel primary-care attendance for influenza-like illness, where influenza infection was laboratory confirmed, were calculated using the test negative design, adjusting for potential confounders. METHODS Results In the mainland United Kingdom, end-of-season VE against all laboratory-confirmed influenza for all those > 65 years of age, most of whom received adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccines, was 30% (95% CI: -6% to 54%). VE for those aged 18-64, who largely received cell-based vaccines, was 47% (95% CI: 37%-56%). Overall VE for 2-17 year olds, predominantly receiving live attenuated vaccines, was 66% (95% CI: 53%-76%). CONCLUSION The paper provides evidence of moderate influenza VE in 2022/23.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather J. Whitaker
- Statistics, Modelling and Economics DepartmentUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Naoma Willam
- Clinical and Protecting HealthPublic Health ScotlandGlasgowUK
| | - Simon Cottrell
- Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance CentrePublic Health WalesCardiffUK
| | - Rosalind Goudie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Nick Andrews
- Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases DivisionUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Josie Evans
- Clinical and Protecting HealthPublic Health ScotlandGlasgowUK
| | - Catherine Moore
- Wales Specialist Virology CentrePublic Health Wales MicrobiologyCardiffUK
| | - Utkarsh Agrawal
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Katie Hassell
- Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases DivisionUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Rory Gunson
- West of Scotland Specialist Virology CentreNHS Greater Glasgow and ClydeGlasgowUK
| | - Jana Zitha
- Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance CentrePublic Health WalesCardiffUK
| | - Sneha Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | | | - Cecilia Okusi
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Beatrix Kele
- Respiratory Virus UnitUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Mark Hamilton
- Clinical and Protecting HealthPublic Health ScotlandGlasgowUK
| | - Anastasia Couzens
- Wales Specialist Virology CentrePublic Health Wales MicrobiologyCardiffUK
| | - Catherine Quinot
- Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases DivisionUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Kathleen Pheasant
- Wales Specialist Virology CentrePublic Health Wales MicrobiologyCardiffUK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Kimberly Marsh
- Clinical and Protecting HealthPublic Health ScotlandGlasgowUK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Department of Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of StrathclydeGlasgowUK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health SciencesUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Research and Surveillance CentreRoyal College of General PractitionersLondonUK
| | - Christopher Williams
- Public Health Wales Communicable Disease Surveillance CentrePublic Health WalesCardiffUK
| | - Maria Zambon
- Respiratory Virus UnitUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
| | - Jim McMenamin
- Clinical and Protecting HealthPublic Health ScotlandGlasgowUK
| | - Conall H. Watson
- Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases DivisionUK Health Security AgencyLondonUK
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Ladhani SN, Fernandes S, Garg M, Borrow R, de Lusignan S, Bolton-Maggs PHB. Prevention and treatment of infection in patients with an absent or hypofunctional spleen: A British Society for Haematology guideline. Br J Haematol 2024; 204:1672-1686. [PMID: 38600782 DOI: 10.1111/bjh.19361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Revised: 02/13/2024] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
Guidelines for the prevention and treatment of infection in patients with an absent or dysfunctional spleen were published by the British Committee for Standards in Haematology in 1996 and updated in 2002 and 2011. With advances in vaccinations and changes in patterns of infection, the guidelines required updating. Key aspects included in this guideline are the identification of patients at risk of infection, patient education and information and immunisation schedules. This guideline does not address the non-infective complications of splenectomy or functional hyposplenism (FH). This replaces previous guidelines and significantly revises the recommendations related to immunisation. Patients at risk include those who have undergone surgical removal of the spleen, including partial splenectomy and splenic embolisation, and those with medical conditions that predispose to FH. Immunisations should include those against Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus), Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus) and influenza. Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) is part of the infant immunisation schedule and is no longer required for older hyposplenic patients. Treatment of suspected or proven infections should be based on local protocols and consider relevant anti-microbial resistance patterns. The education of patients and their medical practitioners is essential, particularly in relation to the risk of serious infection and its prevention. Further research is required to establish the effectiveness of vaccinations in hyposplenic patients; infective episodes should be regularly audited. There is no single group ideally placed to conduct audits into complications arising from hyposplenism, highlighting a need for a national registry, as has proved very successful in Australia or alternatively, the establishment of appropriate multidisciplinary networks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shamez N Ladhani
- Centre for Neonatal and Paediatric Infections (CNPI), St. George's University of London, London, UK
- Immunisation and Countermeasures Division, UK Health Security Agency Colindale, London, UK
| | - Savio Fernandes
- Department of Haematology, Dudley Group Foundation NHS Trust, Russell's Hall Hospital, Dudley, UK
| | - Mamta Garg
- Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester, UK
| | - Ray Borrow
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Manchester, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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7
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Gu X, Watson C, Agrawal U, Whitaker H, Elson WH, Anand S, Borrow R, Buckingham A, Button E, Curtis L, Dunn D, Elliot AJ, Ferreira F, Goudie R, Hoang U, Hoschler K, Jamie G, Kar D, Kele B, Leston M, Linley E, Macartney J, Marsden GL, Okusi C, Parvizi O, Quinot C, Sebastianpillai P, Sexton V, Smith G, Suli T, Thomas NPB, Thompson C, Todkill D, Wimalaratna R, Inada-Kim M, Andrews N, Tzortziou-Brown V, Byford R, Zambon M, Lopez-Bernal J, de Lusignan S. Postpandemic Sentinel Surveillance of Respiratory Diseases in the Context of the World Health Organization Mosaic Framework: Protocol for a Development and Evaluation Study Involving the English Primary Care Network 2023-2024. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e52047. [PMID: 38569175 PMCID: PMC11024753 DOI: 10.2196/52047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Revised: 01/02/2024] [Accepted: 01/17/2024] [Indexed: 04/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza. The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) in collaboration with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has provided sentinel surveillance since 1967, including virology since 1993. OBJECTIVE We aim to describe the RSC's plans for sentinel surveillance in the 2023-2024 season and evaluate these plans against the WHO mosaic framework. METHODS Our approach, which includes patient and public involvement, contributes to surveillance objectives across all 3 domains of the mosaic framework. We will generate an ARI phenotype to enable reporting of this indicator in addition to ILI. These data will support UKHSA's sentinel surveillance, including vaccine effectiveness and burden of disease studies. The panel of virology tests analyzed in UKHSA's reference laboratory will remain unchanged, with additional plans for point-of-care testing, pneumococcus testing, and asymptomatic screening. Our sampling framework for serological surveillance will provide greater representativeness and more samples from younger people. We will create a biomedical resource that enables linkage between clinical data held in the RSC and virology data, including sequencing data, held by the UKHSA. We describe the governance framework for the RSC. RESULTS We are co-designing our communication about data sharing and sampling, contextualized by the mosaic framework, with national and general practice patient and public involvement groups. We present our ARI digital phenotype and the key data RSC network members are requested to include in computerized medical records. We will share data with the UKHSA to report vaccine effectiveness for COVID-19 and influenza, assess the disease burden of respiratory syncytial virus, and perform syndromic surveillance. Virological surveillance will include COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and other common respiratory viruses. We plan to pilot point-of-care testing for group A streptococcus, urine tests for pneumococcus, and asymptomatic testing. We will integrate test requests and results with the laboratory-computerized medical record system. A biomedical resource will enable research linking clinical data to virology data. The legal basis for the RSC's pseudonymized data extract is The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, and all nonsurveillance uses require research ethics approval. CONCLUSIONS The RSC extended its surveillance activities to meet more but not all of the mosaic framework's objectives. We have introduced an ARI indicator. We seek to expand our surveillance scope and could do more around transmissibility and the benefits and risks of nonvaccine therapies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinchun Gu
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Conall Watson
- Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Utkarsh Agrawal
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Heather Whitaker
- Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - William H Elson
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sneha Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ray Borrow
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | | | - Elizabeth Button
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Lottie Curtis
- Royal College of General Practitioners, London, United Kingdom
| | - Dominic Dunn
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Alex J Elliot
- Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Filipa Ferreira
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Rosalind Goudie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Uy Hoang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Katja Hoschler
- Respiratory Virus Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Debasish Kar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Beatrix Kele
- Respiratory Virus Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Meredith Leston
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Ezra Linley
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Jack Macartney
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gemma L Marsden
- Royal College of General Practitioners, London, United Kingdom
| | - Cecilia Okusi
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Omid Parvizi
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Respiratory Virus Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Catherine Quinot
- Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Vanashree Sexton
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gillian Smith
- Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Timea Suli
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Catherine Thompson
- Respiratory Virus Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel Todkill
- Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom
| | - Rashmi Wimalaratna
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Nick Andrews
- Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Maria Zambon
- Virus Reference Department, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jamie Lopez-Bernal
- Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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8
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Talts T, Mosscrop LG, Williams D, Tregoning JS, Paulo W, Kohli A, Williams TC, Hoschler K, Ellis J, de Lusignan S, Zambon M. Robust and sensitive amplicon-based whole-genome sequencing assay of respiratory syncytial virus subtype A and B. Microbiol Spectr 2024; 12:e0306723. [PMID: 38411056 PMCID: PMC10986592 DOI: 10.1128/spectrum.03067-23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is now a global health priority, with a long-acting monoclonal antibody and two RSV vaccines recently licenced for clinical use. Most licenced and candidate interventions target the RSV fusion (RSV-F) protein. New interventions may be associated with the spread of mutations, reducing susceptibility to antibody neutralization in RSV-F. There is a need for ongoing longitudinal global surveillance of circulating RSV strains. To achieve this large-scale genomic surveillance, a reliable, high-throughput RSV sequencing assay is required. Here we report an improved high-throughput RSV whole-genome sequencing (WGS) assay performed directly on clinical samples without additional enrichment, using a 4-primer-pool, short-amplicon PCR-tiling approach that is suitable for short-read sequencing platforms. Using upper respiratory tract (URT) RSV-positive clinical samples obtained from a sentinel network of primary care providers and from hospital patients (29.7% and 70.2%, respectively; n = 1,037), collected over the period 2019 to 2023, this assay had a threshold of approximately 4 × 103 to 8 × 103 copies/mL (RSV-B and RSV-A sub-types, respectively) as the lowest amount of virus needed in the sample to achieve >96% of whole-genome coverage at a high-quality level. Using a Ct value of 31 as an empirical cut-off, the overall assay success rate of obtaining >90% genome coverage at a read depth minimum of 20 was 96.83% for clinical specimens successfully sequenced from a total of 1,071. The RSV WGS approach described in this study has increased sensitivity compared to previous approaches and can be applied to clinical specimens without the requirement for enrichment. The updated approach produces sequences of high quality consistently and cost-effectively, suitable for implementation to underpin national programs for the surveillance of RSV genomic variation. IMPORTANCE In this paper, we report an improved high-throughput respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) whole-genome sequencing (WGS) assay performed directly on clinical samples, using a 4-primer-pool, short-amplicon PCR-tiling approach that is suitable for short-read sequencing platforms. The RSV WGS approach described in this study has increased sensitivity compared to previous approaches and can be applied to clinical specimens without the requirement for enrichment. The updated approach produces sequences of high quality consistently and cost-effectively, suitable for implementation to underpin national and global programs for the surveillance of RSV genomic variation. The quality of sequence produced is essential for preparedness for new interventions in monitoring antigenic escape, where a single point mutation might lead to a reduction in antibody binding effectiveness and neutralizing activity, or indeed in the monitoring of retaining susceptibility to neutralization by existing and new interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiina Talts
- UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Joanna Ellis
- UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Maria Zambon
- UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom
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9
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Meeraus W, Joy M, Ouwens M, Taylor KS, Venkatesan S, Dennis J, Tran TN, Dashtban A, Fan X, Williams R, Morris T, Carty L, Kar D, Hoang U, Feher M, Forbes A, Jamie G, Hinton W, Sanecka K, Byford R, Anand SN, Hobbs FDR, Clifton DA, Pollard AJ, Taylor S, de Lusignan S. AZD1222 effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in individuals with comorbidity or frailty: The RAVEN cohort study. J Infect 2024; 88:106129. [PMID: 38431156 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2023] [Revised: 11/27/2023] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Despite being prioritized during initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout, vulnerable individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) remain underrepresented in vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies. The RAVEN cohort study (NCT05047822) assessed AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCov-19) two-dose primary series VE in vulnerable populations. METHODS Using the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub, linked to secondary care, death registration, and COVID-19 datasets in England, COVID-19 outcomes in 2021 were compared in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals matched on age, sex, region, and multimorbidity. RESULTS Over 4.5 million AZD1222 recipients were matched (mean follow-up ∼5 months); 68% were ≥50 years, 57% had high multimorbidity. Overall, high VE against severe COVID-19 was demonstrated, with lower VE observed in vulnerable populations. VE against hospitalization was higher in the lowest multimorbidity quartile (91.1%; 95% CI: 90.1, 92.0) than the highest quartile (80.4%; 79.7, 81.1), and among individuals ≥65 years, higher in the 'fit' (86.2%; 84.5, 87.6) than the frailest (71.8%; 69.3, 74.2). VE against hospitalization was lowest in immunosuppressed individuals (64.6%; 60.7, 68.1). CONCLUSIONS Based on integrated and comprehensive UK health data, overall population-level VE with AZD1222 was high. VEs were notably lower in vulnerable groups, particularly the immunosuppressed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wilhelmine Meeraus
- Medical Evidence, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mario Ouwens
- Medical & Payer Evidence Statistics, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Mölndal, Sweden
| | - Kathryn S Taylor
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sudhir Venkatesan
- Medical & Payer Evidence Statistics, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Trung N Tran
- Biopharmaceutical Medicine Respiratory and Immunology, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg, MD, USA
| | - Ashkan Dashtban
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
| | - Xuejuan Fan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Robert Williams
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tamsin Morris
- Medical and Scientific Affairs, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, London, UK
| | - Lucy Carty
- Medical & Payer Evidence Statistics, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Debasish Kar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Uy Hoang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Michael Feher
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anna Forbes
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - William Hinton
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kornelia Sanecka
- Medical Evidence, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Sneha N Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - F D Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David A Clifton
- Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Andrew J Pollard
- Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Sylvia Taylor
- Medical Evidence, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals Medical, AstraZeneca, Cambridge, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, London, UK.
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10
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Whitaker HJ, Hassell K, Hoschler K, Power L, Stowe J, Boddington NL, Tsang C, Zhao H, Linley E, Button E, Okusi C, Aspden C, Byford R, deLusignan S, Amirthalingam G, Zambon M, Andrews NJ, Watson C. Influenza vaccination during the 2021/22 season: A data-linkage test-negative case-control study of effectiveness against influenza requiring emergency care in England and serological analysis of primary care patients. Vaccine 2024; 42:1656-1664. [PMID: 38342716 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.02.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/13/2024]
Abstract
We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1-17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2-10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50-64 years. Influenza activity rose during the latter half of the 2021/22 season, while remaining comparatively low due to COVID-19 pandemic control measures. Influenza A(H3N2) strains predominated. A test negative design was used to estimate aVE by vaccine type. Cases and controls were identified within a sentinel laboratory surveillance system. Vaccine histories were obtained from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), an influenza and COVID-19 vaccine registry. These were linked to emergency department presentations (excluding accidents) with respiratory swabbing ≤ 14 days before or ≤ 7 days after presentation. Amongst adults, 423 positive and 32,917 negative samples were eligible for inclusion, and 145 positive and 6,438 negative samples among children. Those admitted to hospital were further identified. In serology against the circulating A(H3N2) A/Bangladesh/4005/2020-like strain, 61 % of current season adult vaccinees had titres ≥ 1:40 compared to 17 % of those unvaccinated in 2020/21 or 2021/22 (p < 0.001). We found good protection from influenza vaccination against influenza requiring emergency care in children (72.7 % [95 % CI 52.7, 84.3 %]) and modest effectiveness in adults (26.1 % [95 % CI 4.5, 42.8 %]). Adult VE was higher for A(H1N1) (81 % [95 % CI 50, 93 %]) than A(H3N2) (33 % [95 % CI 6, 53 %]). Consistent protection was observable across preschool, primary and secondary school aged children. Imperfect test specificity combined with very low prevalence may have biased estimates towards null. With limited influenza circulation, the study could not determine differences by vaccine types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather J Whitaker
- Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK.
| | - Katie Hassell
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Katja Hoschler
- Virus Reference Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Linda Power
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Julia Stowe
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Nicki L Boddington
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Camille Tsang
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Hongxin Zhao
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Ezra Linley
- Seroepidemiology Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester, UK
| | - Elizabeth Button
- Nuffield Department of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Oxford Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Cecilia Okusi
- Nuffield Department of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Oxford Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Carole Aspden
- Nuffield Department of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Oxford Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Oxford Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon deLusignan
- Nuffield Department of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Oxford Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, 30, Euston Square, London, UK
| | - Gayatri Amirthalingam
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Maria Zambon
- Virus Reference Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Nick J Andrews
- Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK; Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
| | - Conall Watson
- Immunisation and Vaccine-preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, Colindale, London, UK
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11
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Forbes AK, Hinton W, Feher MD, Elson W, Joy M, Ordóñez-Mena JM, Fan X, Cole NI, Banerjee D, Suckling RJ, de Lusignan S, Swift PA. Implementation of chronic kidney disease guidelines for sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor use in primary care in the UK: a cross-sectional study. EClinicalMedicine 2024; 68:102426. [PMID: 38304744 PMCID: PMC10831804 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2023] [Revised: 12/28/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The cardiovascular and kidney benefits of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are well established. The implementation of updated SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines and prescribing in the real-world CKD population remains largely unknown. Methods A cross-sectional study of adults with CKD registered with UK primary care practices in the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre network on the 31st December 2022 was undertaken. Pseudonymised data from electronic health records held securely within the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub (ORCHID) were extracted. An update to a previously described ontological approach was used to identify the study population, using a combination of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) indicating a diagnosis of CKD and laboratory confirmed CKD based on Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) diagnostic criteria. We examined the extent to which SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines apply to and are then implemented in adults with CKD. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with SGLT2 inhibitor prescribing, reported as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The four guidelines under investigation were the United Kingdom Kidney Association (UKKA) Clinical Practice Guideline SGLT2 Inhibition in Adults with Kidney Disease (October 2021), American Diabetes Association (ADA) and KDIGO Consensus Report on Diabetes Management in CKD (October 2022), National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Guideline Type 2 Diabetes in Adults: Management (June 2022), and NICE Technology Appraisal Dapagliflozin for Treating CKD (March 2022). Findings Of 6,670,829 adults, we identified 516,491 (7.7%) with CKD, including 32.8% (n = 169,443) who had co-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D). 26.8% (n = 138,183) of the overall CKD population had a guideline directed indication for SGLT2 inhibitor treatment. A higher proportion of people with CKD and co-existing T2D were indicated for treatment, compared to those without T2D (62.8% [n = 106,468] vs. 9.1% [n = 31,715]). SGLT2 inhibitors were prescribed to 17.0% (n = 23,466) of those with an indication for treatment, and prescriptions were predominantly in those with co-existing T2D; 22.0% (n = 23,464) in those with T2D, and <0.1% (n = 2) in those without T2D. In adjusted multivariable analysis of people with CKD and T2D, females (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.67-0.72, p <0.0001), individuals of Black ethnicity (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.91, p <0.0001) and those of lower socio-economic status (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76, p <0.0001) were less likely to be prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor. Those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 had a lower likelihood of receiving an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared to those with an eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68, p <0.0001, eGFR 30-45 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.69-0.78, p <0.0001, eGFR 15-30 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46-0.60, p <0.0001, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.00-0.23, p = 0.0037, respectively). Those with albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio 3-30 mg/mmol) were less likely to be prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor, compared to those without albuminuria (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.75-0.82, p <0.0001). Interpretation SGLT2 inhibitor guidelines in CKD have not yet been successfully implemented into clinical practice, most notably in those without co-existing T2D. Individuals at higher risk of adverse outcomes are paradoxically less likely to receive SGLT2 inhibitor treatment. The timeframe between the publication of guidelines and data extraction may have been too short to observe changes in clinical practice. Enhanced efforts to embed SGLT2 inhibitors equitably into routine care for people with CKD are urgently needed, particularly in those at highest risk of adverse outcomes and in the absence of T2D. Funding None.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna K. Forbes
- Renal Services, Epsom & St. Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - William Hinton
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Michael D. Feher
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - William Elson
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - José M. Ordóñez-Mena
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Xuejuan Fan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas I. Cole
- Renal Services, Epsom & St. Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Debasish Banerjee
- Renal & Transplantation Unit, St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rebecca J. Suckling
- Renal Services, Epsom & St. Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Pauline A. Swift
- Renal Services, Epsom & St. Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom
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12
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Bedston S, Almaghrabi F, Patterson L, Agrawal U, Woolford L, Anand SN, Joy M, Crawford A, Goudie R, Byford R, Abbasizanjani H, Smith D, Laidlaw L, Akbari A, Sullivan C, Bradley DT, Lyons RA, de Lusignan S, Hobbs FR, Robertson C, Sheikh SA, Shi T. Risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after autumn 2022 COVID-19 booster vaccinations: a pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies involving 7.4 million adults in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2024; 37:100816. [PMID: 38162515 PMCID: PMC10757260 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 11/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
Background UK COVID-19 vaccination policy has evolved to offering COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at increased risk of severe Illness from COVID-19. Building on our analyses of vaccine effectiveness of first, second and initial booster doses, we aimed to identify individuals at increased risk of severe outcomes (i.e., COVID-19 related hospitalisation or death) post the autumn 2022 booster dose. Methods We undertook a national population-based cohort analysis across all four UK nations through linked primary care, vaccination, hospitalisation and mortality data. We included individuals who received autumn 2022 booster doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty) or mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) during the period September 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022 to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between demographic and clinical factors and severe COVID-19 outcomes after the autumn booster dose. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, urban/rural areas and comorbidities. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then conducted a fixed-effect meta-analysis to combine results across the four UK nations. Findings Between September 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 7,451,890 individuals ≥18 years received an autumn booster dose. 3500 had severe COVID-19 outcomes (2.9 events per 1000 person-years). Being male (male vs female, aHR 1.41 (1.32-1.51)), older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; 10.43 (8.06-13.50)), underweight (BMI <18.5 vs BMI 25.0-29.9; 2.94 (2.51-3.44)), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9.45 (8.15-10.96)) had a higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death after the autumn booster dose. Those with a larger household size (≥11 people within household vs 2 people; 1.56 (1.23-1.98)) and from more deprived areas (most deprived vs least deprived quintile; 1.35 (1.21-1.51)) had modestly higher risks. We also observed at least a two-fold increase in risk for those with various chronic neurological conditions, including Down's syndrome, immunodeficiency, chronic kidney disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, or cardiovascular disease. Interpretation Males, older individuals, underweight individuals, those with an increasing number of comorbidities, from a larger household or more deprived areas, and those with specific underlying health conditions remained at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the autumn 2022 vaccine booster dose. There is now a need to focus on these risk groups for investigating immunogenicity and efficacy of further booster doses or therapeutics. Funding National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council and Economic and Social Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuart Bedston
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Fatima Almaghrabi
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Lynsey Patterson
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
- Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK
| | - Utkarsh Agrawal
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Lana Woolford
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Sneha N. Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Anna Crawford
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Rosalind Goudie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Hoda Abbasizanjani
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Deb Smith
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Lynn Laidlaw
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | | | - Declan T. Bradley
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
- Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK
| | - Ronan A. Lyons
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - F.D. Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
| | - Sir Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
| | - Ting Shi
- Usher Institute, Edinburgh Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
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de Lusignan S, Hobbs FR, Sheikh A. Lessons from the English primary care sentinel network's response to the COVID-19 pandemic. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2024; 24:14-16. [PMID: 38040007 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00736-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 12/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK.
| | - Fd Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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14
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Cogdale J, Kele B, Myers R, Harvey R, Lofts A, Mikaiel T, Hoschler K, Banyard AC, James J, Mollett BC, Byrne AM, Lopez-Bernal J, Watson CH, Chand M, Welfare W, Williamson DA, Oliver I, Padfield S, Lee A, Calvert S, Bewley MA, Wallace L, deLusignan S, Lewis NS, Brown IH, Zambon M. A case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England, November 2023. Euro Surveill 2024; 29:2400002. [PMID: 38240057 PMCID: PMC10797662 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2024.29.3.2400002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/18/2024] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Under International Health Regulations from 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus variant is considered an event that has potential for high public health impact and is immediately notifiable to the World Health Organisation. We here describe the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of a confirmed human case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England detected through community respiratory virus surveillance. Swabbing and contact tracing helped refine public health risk assessment, following this unusual and unexpected finding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jade Cogdale
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Beatrix Kele
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Richard Myers
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Ruth Harvey
- The Francis Crick Institute, London, United Kingdom
| | - Abi Lofts
- The Francis Crick Institute, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Katja Hoschler
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Ashley C Banyard
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Weybridge, United Kingdom
| | - Joe James
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Weybridge, United Kingdom
| | - Benjamin C Mollett
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Weybridge, United Kingdom
- Royal Veterinary College, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Conall H Watson
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Meera Chand
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - William Welfare
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Manchester, United Kingdom
| | | | - Isabel Oliver
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
| | - Simon Padfield
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Lee
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Suzanne Calvert
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Martin A Bewley
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Louise Wallace
- Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Network (YHPHN), Yorkshire, United Kingdom
| | - Simon deLusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford United Kingdom
- Royal College of General Practice (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Nicola S Lewis
- The Francis Crick Institute, London, United Kingdom
- Royal Veterinary College, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ian H Brown
- Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Weybridge, United Kingdom
| | - Maria Zambon
- United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA), London, United Kingdom
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15
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Vusirikala A, Tonge S, Bell A, Linley E, Borrow R, O'Boyle S, de Lusignan S, Charlett A, Balasegaram S, Amirthalingam G. Reassurance of population immunity to diphtheria in England: Results from a 2021 national serosurvey. Vaccine 2023; 41:6878-6883. [PMID: 37821313 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Revised: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Diphtheria is rare in England because of an effective national immunisation schedule that includes 5 doses of a diphtheria-containing vaccine at 2, 3, 4 months, preschool and adolescent boosters. However, in recent years there has been a notable increase in cases due to Corynebacterium ulcerans among older adults and evidence of endemic transmission of C. diphtheriae (normally associated with travel to endemic countries). We aimed to update 2009 estimates of diphtheria immunity considering the evolving epidemiology. METHODS Residual sera collected from diagnostic laboratories and general practitioners in England in 2021 were randomly selected and tested for diphtheria antibody, to estimate proportions protected per age group. Diphtheria antibody levels were defined as susceptible (<0.01 IU/mL), basic protection (0.01-0.099 IU/mL) and full protection (≥0.1 IU/mL). Immunity estimates were standardised to the England population and compared to 2009. RESULTS Based on 3,745 residual sera tested, 89% (95%CI: 87%-90%) of the 2021 England population had at least basic diphtheria protection (vs. 90% [88%-92%] in 2009) and 50% (48%-52%) full protection (vs. 41% [38%-44%]). Higher antibody levels were observed in those aged 1 and under, 10-11, 12-15, 25-34 and 35-44 years compared to 2009. The largest proportion susceptible were observed in those aged 70+, 26% (21%-31%) vs 12% (7%-18%) in 2009. CONCLUSIONS Basic diphtheria protection is comparable between 2021 and 2009. The increase in immunity in working age adults is likely due to the school leaver booster introduced in 1994. The current vaccination schedule is maintaining sufficient population immunity. However, we recommend clinicians remain vigilant to severe diphtheria outcomes in older adults, because of their observed susceptibility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amoolya Vusirikala
- UK Health Security Agency, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK; UK Field Epidemiology Training Programme, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
| | - Simon Tonge
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9WL, UK
| | - Abigail Bell
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9WL, UK
| | - Ezra Linley
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9WL, UK
| | - Ray Borrow
- Vaccine Evaluation Unit, UK Health Security Agency, Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership, Manchester Royal Infirmary, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9WL, UK
| | - Shennae O'Boyle
- UK Health Security Agency, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, Euston Square, London NW1 2FB, UK; Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK
| | - Andre Charlett
- UK Health Security Agency, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK
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16
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Bardsley M, Loveridge P, Bednarska NG, Smith S, Morbey RA, Amirthalingam G, Elson WH, Bates C, de Lusignan S, Todkill D, Elliot AJ. The Epidemiology of Chickenpox in England, 2016-2022: An Observational Study Using General Practitioner Consultations. Viruses 2023; 15:2163. [PMID: 38005841 PMCID: PMC10674747 DOI: 10.3390/v15112163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Chickenpox is a common childhood disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV). VZV vaccination is not part of the UK childhood immunisation programme, but its potential inclusion is regularly assessed. It is therefore important to understand the ongoing burden of VZV in the community to inform vaccine policy decisions. General practitioner (GP) chickenpox consultations were studied from 1 September 2016 to 9 December 2022. Over the study period, the mean weekly chickenpox consultation rate per 100,000 population in England was 3.4, with a regular peak occurring between weeks 13 and 15. Overall, rates decreased over time, from a mean weekly rate of 5.5 in 2017 to 4.2 in 2019. The highest mean weekly rates were among children aged 1-4 years. There was no typical epidemic peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2022, rates were proportionally higher among children aged < 1 year old compared to pre-pandemic years. Chickenpox GP consultation rates decreased in England, continuing a longer-term decline in the community. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted rates, likely caused by the introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The lasting impact of the interruption of typical disease transmission remains to be seen, but it is important to monitor the chickenpox burden to inform decisions on vaccine programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan Bardsley
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Paul Loveridge
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Natalia G. Bednarska
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Sue Smith
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Roger A. Morbey
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Gayatri Amirthalingam
- Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London NW9 5EQ, UK;
| | - William H. Elson
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK; (W.H.E.); (S.d.L.)
| | | | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6ED, UK; (W.H.E.); (S.d.L.)
| | - Daniel Todkill
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
| | - Alex J. Elliot
- Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham B2 4BH, UK; (M.B.); (P.L.); (N.G.B.); (S.S.); (R.A.M.); (D.T.)
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17
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Edwards L, Pickett J, Ashcroft DM, Dambha-Miller H, Majeed A, Mallen C, Petersen I, Qureshi N, van Staa T, Abel G, Carvalho C, Denholm R, Kontopantelis E, Macaulay A, Macleod J. UK research data resources based on primary care electronic health records: review and summary for potential users. BJGP Open 2023; 7:BJGPO.2023.0057. [PMID: 37429634 PMCID: PMC10646196 DOI: 10.3399/bjgpo.2023.0057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The range and scope of electronic health record (EHR) data assets in the UK has recently increased, which has been mainly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Summarising and comparing the large primary care resources will help researchers to choose the data resources most suited to their needs. AIM To describe the current landscape of UK EHR databases and considerations of access and use of these resources relevant to researchers. DESIGN & SETTING Narrative review of EHR databases in the UK. METHOD Information was collected from the Health Data Research Innovation Gateway, publicly available websites and other published data, and from key informants. The eligibility criteria were population-based open-access databases sampling EHRs across the whole population of one or more countries in the UK. Published database characteristics were extracted and summarised, and these were corroborated with resource providers. Results were synthesised narratively. RESULTS Nine large national primary care EHR data resources were identified and summarised. These resources are enhanced by linkage to other administrative data to a varying extent. Resources are mainly intended to support observational research, although some can support experimental studies. There is considerable overlap of populations covered. While all resources are accessible to bona fide researchers, access mechanisms, costs, timescales, and other considerations vary across databases. CONCLUSION Researchers are currently able to access primary care EHR data from several sources. Choice of data resource is likely to be driven by project needs and access considerations. The landscape of data resources based on primary care EHRs in the UK continues to evolve.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Darren M Ashcroft
- Centre for Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, NIHR Greater Manchester Patient Safety Translational Research Centre, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | - Azeem Majeed
- Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Irene Petersen
- Department of Primary Care & Population Health, Institute of Epidemiology & Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nadeem Qureshi
- Centre for Academic Primary Care, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Tjeerd van Staa
- Health eResearch Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Gary Abel
- Department of Health and Community Sciences (Medical School), Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Chris Carvalho
- Clinical Effectiveness Group, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Rachel Denholm
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- Centre for Academic Primary Care, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- NIHR Bristol Biomedical Research Centre, Bristol, UK
- Health Data Research UK South-West, Bristol, UK
- NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) West, Bristol, UK
| | - Evangelos Kontopantelis
- Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | | | - John Macleod
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
- NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) West, Bristol, UK
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18
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Joy M, Agrawal U, Fan X, Robertson C, Anand SN, Ordonez-Mena J, Byford R, Goudie R, Jamie G, Kar D, Williams J, Marsden GL, Tzortziou-Brown V, Sheikh SA, Hobbs FR, de Lusignan S. Thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events following second dose with BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1: self-controlled case series analysis of the English national sentinel cohort. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. EUROPE 2023; 32:100681. [PMID: 37671127 PMCID: PMC10477035 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2023] [Revised: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 09/07/2023]
Abstract
Background Thrombosis associated with thrombocytopenia was a matter of concern post first and second doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines. Therefore, it is important to investigate the risk of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events following a second dose of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines. Methods We conducted a large-scale self-controlled case series analysis, using routine primary care data linked to hospital data, among 12.3 million individuals (16 years old and above) in England. We used the nationally representative Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) sentinel network database with baseline and risk periods between 8th December 2020 and 11th June 2022. We included individuals who received two vaccine (primary) doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and two vaccine doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our analyses. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis for each outcome using a conditional Poisson regression model with an offset for the length of risk period. We reported the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic (including arterial and venous events) and haemorrhagic events, in the period of 0-27 days after receiving a second dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines compared to the baseline period (14 or more days prior to first dose, 28 or more days after the second dose and the time between 28 or more days after the first and 14 or more days prior to the second dose). We adjusted for a range of potential confounders, including age, sex, comorbidities and deprivation. Findings Between December 8, 2020 and February 11, 2022, 6,306,306 individuals were vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2 and 6,046,785 individuals were vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1. Compared to the baseline, our analysis show no increased risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) for both BNT162b2 (IRR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.65-0.770) and ChAdOx1 (IRR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98); and similarly there was no increased risk for cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) for both BNT162b2 (IRR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.41-1.85) and ChAdOx1 (IRR 1.73, 95% CI: 0.82-3.68). We additionally report no difference in IRR for pulmonary embolus, and deep vein thrombosis, thrombocytopenia, including idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), and haemorrhagic events post second dose for both BNT162b2. Interpretation Reassuringly, we found no associations between increased risk of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events post vaccination with second dose for either of these vaccines. Funding Data and Connectivity: COVID-19 Vaccines Pharmacovigilance study.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Utkarsh Agrawal
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Xuejuan Fan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK
- Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sneha N. Anand
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Jose Ordonez-Mena
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Rosalind Goudie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Gavin Jamie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Debasish Kar
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - John Williams
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | | | | | | | - F.D. Richard Hobbs
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
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Jonnagaddala J, Hoang U, Wensaas KA, Tu K, Ortigoza A, Silva-Valencia J, Cuba-Fuentes MS, Godinho MA, de Lusignan S, Liaw ST. Integrated Management Systems (IMS) to Support and Sustain Quality One Health Services: International Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic by the IMIA Primary Care Working Group. Yearb Med Inform 2023; 32:55-64. [PMID: 37414035 PMCID: PMC10751124 DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-1768725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES One Health considers human, animal and environment health as a continuum. The COVID-19 pandemic started with the leap of a virus from animals to humans. Integrated management systems (IMS) should provide a coherent management framework, to meet reporting requirements and support care delivery. We report IMS deployment during, and retention post the COVID-19 pandemic, and exemplar One Health use cases. METHODS Six volunteer members of the International Medical Association's (IMIA) Primary Care Working Group provided data about any IMS and One Health use to support the COVID-19 pandemic initiatives. We explored how IMS were: (1) Integrated with organisational strategy; (2) Utilised standardised processes, and (3) Met reporting requirements, including public health. Selected contributors provided Unified Modelling Language (UML) use case diagram for a One Health exemplar. RESULTS There was weak evidence of synergy between IMS and health system strategy to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there were rapid pragmatic responses to COVID-19, not citing IMS. All health systems implemented IMS to link COVID test results, vaccine uptake and outcomes, particularly mortality and to provide patients access to test results and vaccination certification. Neither proportion of gross domestic product alone, nor vaccine uptake determined outcome. One Health exemplars demonstrated that animal, human and environmental specialists could collaborate. CONCLUSIONS IMS use improved the pandemic response. However, IMS use was pragmatic rather than utilising an international standard, with some of their benefits lost post-pandemic. Health systems should incorporate IMS that enables One Health approaches as part of their post COVID-19 pandemic preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Uy Hoang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
| | | | - Karen Tu
- Department of Family & Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Angela Ortigoza
- Department of Family & Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Javier Silva-Valencia
- Center for Research in Primary Health Care (CINAPS), School of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Peru
| | - María Sofía Cuba-Fuentes
- Center for Research in Primary Health Care (CINAPS), School of Medicine, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Peru
| | | | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
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20
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Hoang U, Williams A, Smylie J, Aspden C, Button E, Macartney J, Okusi C, Byford R, Ferreira F, Leston M, Xie CX, Joy M, Marsden G, Clark T, de Lusignan S. The Impact of Point-of-Care Testing for Influenza on Antimicrobial Stewardship (PIAMS) in UK Primary Care: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study. JMIR Res Protoc 2023; 12:e46938. [PMID: 37327029 DOI: 10.2196/46938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Molecular point-of-care testing (POCT) used in primary care can inform whether a patient presenting with an acute respiratory infection has influenza. A confirmed clinical diagnosis, particularly early in the disease, could inform better antimicrobial stewardship. Social distancing and lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic have disturbed previous patterns of influenza infections in 2021. However, data from samples taken in the last quarter of 2022 suggest that influenza represents 36% of sentinel network positive virology, compared with 24% for respiratory syncytial virus. Problems with integration into the clinical workflow is a known barrier to incorporating technology into routine care. OBJECTIVE This study aims to report the impact of POCT for influenza on antimicrobial prescribing in primary care. We will additionally describe severe outcomes of infection (hospitalization and mortality) and how POCT is integrated into primary care workflows. METHODS The impact of POCT for influenza on antimicrobial stewardship (PIAMS) in UK primary care is an observational study being conducted between December 2022 and May 2023 and involving 10 practices that contribute data to the English sentinel network. Up to 1000 people who present to participating practices with respiratory symptoms will be swabbed and tested with a rapid molecular POCT analyzer in the practice. Antimicrobial prescribing and other study outcomes will be collected by linking information from the POCT analyzer with data from the patient's computerized medical record. We will collect data on how POCT is incorporated into practice using data flow diagrams, unified modeling language use case diagrams, and Business Process Modeling Notation. RESULTS We will present the crude and adjusted odds of antimicrobial prescribing (all antibiotics and antivirals) given a POCT diagnosis of influenza, stratifying by whether individuals have a respiratory or other relevant diagnosis (eg, bronchiectasis). We will also present the rates of hospital referrals and deaths related to influenza infection in PIAMS study practices compared with a set of matched practices in the sentinel network and the rest of the network. We will describe any difference in implementation models in terms of staff involved and workflow. CONCLUSIONS This study will generate data on the impact of POCT testing for influenza in primary care as well as help to inform about the feasibility of incorporating POCT into primary care workflows. It will inform the design of future larger studies about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of POCT to improve antimicrobial stewardship and any impact on severe outcomes. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID) DERR1-10.2196/46938.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uy Hoang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Alice Williams
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jessica Smylie
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Carole Aspden
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Elizabeth Button
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jack Macartney
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Cecilia Okusi
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel Byford
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Filipa Ferreira
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Meredith Leston
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Charis Xuan Xie
- Wolfson Institute of Population Health, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gemma Marsden
- Royal College of General Practitioners, London, United Kingdom
| | - Tristan Clark
- School of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
- University Hospital Southampton, National Health Service Foundation Trust, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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21
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Walsh B, Fogg C, Harris S, Roderick P, de Lusignan S, England T, Clegg A, Brailsford S, Fraser SDS. Frailty transitions and prevalence in an ageing population: longitudinal analysis of primary care data from an open cohort of adults aged 50 and over in England, 2006-2017. Age Ageing 2023; 52:7147101. [PMID: 37140052 PMCID: PMC10158172 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afad058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION frailty is common in older adults and is associated with increased health and social care use. Longitudinal information is needed on population-level incidence, prevalence and frailty progression to plan services to meet future population needs. METHODS retrospective open cohort study using electronic health records of adults aged ≥50 from primary care in England, 2006-2017. Frailty was calculated annually using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI). Multistate models estimated transition rates between each frailty category, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. Prevalence overall for each eFI category (fit, mild, moderate and severe) was calculated. RESULTS the cohort included 2,171,497 patients and 15,514,734 person-years. Frailty prevalence increased from 26.5 (2006) to 38.9% (2017). The average age of frailty onset was 69; however, 10.8% of people aged 50-64 were already frail in 2006. Estimated transitions from fit to any level of frailty were 48/1,000 person-years aged 50-64, 130/1,000 person-years aged 65-74, 214/1,000 person-years aged 75-84 and 380/1,000 person-years aged ≥ 85. Transitions were independently associated with older age, higher deprivation, female sex, Asian ethnicity and urban dwelling. Mean time spent in each frailty category decreased with age, with the longest period spent in severe frailty at all ages. CONCLUSIONS frailty is prevalent in adults aged ≥50 and time spent in successive frailty states is longer as frailty progresses, resulting in extended healthcare burden. Larger population numbers and fewer transitions in adults aged 50-64 present an opportunity for earlier identification and intervention. A large increase in frailty over 12 years highlights the urgency of informed service planning in ageing populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bronagh Walsh
- School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Carole Fogg
- School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Scott Harris
- School of Primary Care, Population Science & Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Paul Roderick
- School of Primary Care, Population Science & Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tracey England
- School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Andrew Clegg
- Academic Unit of Elderly Care and Rehabilitation, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Sally Brailsford
- Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Simon D S Fraser
- School of Primary Care, Population Science & Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
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22
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Agrawal U, Bedston S, McCowan C, Oke J, Patterson L, Robertson C, Akbari A, Azcoaga-Lorenzo A, Bradley DT, Fagbamigbe AF, Grange Z, Hall ECR, Joy M, Katikireddi SV, Kerr S, Ritchie L, Murphy S, Owen RK, Rudan I, Shah SA, Simpson CR, Torabi F, Tsang RSM, de Lusignan S, Lyons RA, O'Reilly D, Sheikh A. Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. Lancet 2022; 400:1305-1320. [PMID: 36244382 PMCID: PMC9560746 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01656-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 59.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Revised: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death) in individuals who had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had received the first booster vaccine. METHODS We constructed prospective cohorts across all four UK nations through linkages of primary care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality data on 30 million people. We included individuals who received primary vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our initial analyses. We then restricted analyses to those given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a severe COVID-19 outcome between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression models and calculated adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death. We adjusted for a range of potential covariates, including age, sex, comorbidities, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then did pooled analyses across UK nations using fixed-effect meta-analyses. FINDINGS Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 individuals received a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45-3·75]), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07-9·97]), being male (male vs female; 1·23 [1·20-1·26]), and those with certain underlying health conditions-in particular, individuals receiving immunosuppressants (yes vs no; 5·80 [5·53-6·09])-and those with chronic kidney disease (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90-4·74]) remained at high risk despite the initial booster. Individuals with a history of COVID-19 infection were at reduced risk (infected ≥9 months before booster dose vs no previous infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29-0·58]). INTERPRETATION Older people, those with multimorbidity, and those with specific underlying health conditions remain at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the initial vaccine booster and should, therefore, be prioritised for additional boosters, including novel optimised versions, and the increasing array of COVID-19 therapeutics. FUNDING National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.
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Affiliation(s)
- Utkarsh Agrawal
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Stuart Bedston
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Colin McCowan
- School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Jason Oke
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Lynsey Patterson
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Chris Robertson
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK; Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ashley Akbari
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | | | - Declan T Bradley
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK; Public Health Agency, Belfast, UK
| | | | | | | | - Mark Joy
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Steven Kerr
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Lewis Ritchie
- Academic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen School of Medicine and Dentistry, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Siobhán Murphy
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Rhiannon K Owen
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Igor Rudan
- Centre of Global Health, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Colin R Simpson
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; Faculty of Health, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Fatemeh Torabi
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Ruby S M Tsang
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon de Lusignan
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ronan A Lyons
- Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Faculty of Medicine, Health, and Life Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
| | - Dermot O'Reilly
- Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Aziz Sheikh
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
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