Temporal trends in recording of diabetes on death certificates: results from Translating Research Into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD)

Racial and economic segregation and diabetes mortality in the USA, 2016-2020

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to examine the association between racial and economic segregation and diabetes mortality among US counties from 2016 to 2020.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study that combined county-level diabetes mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and sociodemographic information drawn from the 2016-2020 American Community Survey (n=2380 counties in the USA). Racialized economic segregation was measured using the Index Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) for income (ICEincome), race (ICErace) and combined income and race (ICEcombined). ICE measures were categorised into quintiles, Q1 representing the highest concentration and Q5 the lowest concentration of low-income, non-Hispanic (NH) black and low-income NH black households, respectively. Diabetes was ascertained as the underlying cause of death. County-level covariates included the percentage of people aged ≥65 years, metropolitan designation and population size. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to estimate the adjusted mean mortality rate and adjusted risk ratios (aRR) comparing Q1 and Q5.

RESULTS

Adjusted mean diabetes mortality rate was consistently greater in counties with higher concentrations of low-income (ICEincome) and low-income NH black households (ICEcombined). Compared with counties with the lowest concentration (Q1), counties with the highest concentration (Q5) of low-income (aRR 1.96; 95% CI 1.81 to 2.11 for ICEincome), NH black (aRR 1.32; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.47 for ICErace) and low-income NH black households (aRR 1.70; 95% CI 1.56 to 1.84 for ICEcombined) had greater diabetes mortality.

CONCLUSION

Racial and economic segregation is associated with diabetes mortality across US counties.

Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Are Among the Main Underlying Causes of Death in Twenty Healthcare Facilities Across Two Cities in the Democratic Republic of Congo

INTRODUCTION

The mortality rates associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes exhibit disparities by region, with Central Africa ranking fourth globally in terms of mortality rate. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) does not possess mortality data pertaining to these specific underlying causes of death. This study aimed to determine the death rate attributable to CVD and diabetes in two cities in the DRC.

METHODOLOGY

The data on CVD and diabetes utilized in this study were obtained from a pilot project and were registered in the National Health Information System (NHIS). Data quality was initially evaluated using an automated Digital Open Rule Integrated Selection (DORIS), followed by an assessment conducted manually by three assessors. Descriptive and comparative analyses were carried out to determine the proportion of mortality related to CVD and diabetes.

RESULTS

CVD accounted for 20.4% (95%CI: 17.7-23.4%) of deaths in the two cities (Kinshasa and Matadi), whereas diabetes accounted for 5.4% (95%CI: 3.9-7.2%). After adjusting for age and city, the proportional mortality from CVD and diabetes was higher for women than men and increased with age. This study recorded 4.4% of deaths among men and 7.0% among women as the proportional mortality from diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) continue to be a major cause of death, and CVD and diabetes are among the leading causes of early mortality in adults in urban areas. The proportional mortality related to CVD and diabetes appears to be higher in women than in men. Special emphasis should be placed on women, particularly during adulthood, to ensure the prompt detection of diabetes and cardiovascular conditions.

Unclosing Premature Mortality Gap Among Patients With Gout in the US General Population, Independent of Serum Urate and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE

Gout flares are followed by transient major cardiovascular (CV) risk, implicating the role of inflammation; the aim of this study was to determine whether premature mortality rates in patients with gout and CV risk are independent of serum urate (SU) and atherosclerotic CV disease (ASCVD) risk factors.

METHODS

Using serial US nationwide prospective cohorts, we evaluated the independent association of prevalent gout with all-cause and CV mortality, adjusting for SU, ASCVD risk factors, comorbidities, medications, and kidney function and compared mortality rates between the early (1988-1994 baseline) and late cohorts (2007-2016 baseline). We replicated late cohort findings among patients with gout in a nationwide UK cohort (2006-2010 baseline).

RESULTS

Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality rates in patients with prevalent gout were similar in early and late US cohorts (1.20 [1.03-1.40] and 1.19 [1.04-1.37], respectively); HRs with further adjustment for SU were 1.19 (1.02-1.38) and 1.19 (1.03-1.37), respectively. Adjusted HR among patients with gout from the UK late cohort was 1.61 (1.47-1.75); these associations were larger among women (P = 0.04) and prominent among Black individuals. Adjusted HR for CV mortality rates in the late US cohort was 1.39 (1.09-1.78); those for circulatory, CV, and coronary heart disease deaths among UK patients with incident gout were 1.48 (1.24-1.76), 1.49 (1.20-1.85), and 1.59 (1.26-1.99), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with gout experience a persistent mortality gap in all-cause and CV deaths, even adjusting for SU and ASCVD risk factors, supporting a role for gout-specific pathways (eg, flare inflammation). These findings suggest gaps in current care, particularly in women and possibly among Black patients.

Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD).

METHODS

Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.

Demographic and Regional Trends of Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus-Related Mortality in the United States From 1999 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this research was to study the contemporary trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM)-related mortality.

METHODS

We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database to identify adults ≥25 years old where both CVD and DM were listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death between 1999 and 2019. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 population were determined.

RESULTS

The overall age-adjusted mortality rate was 99.18 in 1999 and 91.43 in 2019, with a recent increase from 2014-2019 (annual percent change 1.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-1.6). Age-adjusted mortality rate was higher for males compared with females, with increasing mortality in males between 2014 and 2019 (annual percent change 1.5; 95% CI, 0.9-2.0). Age-adjusted mortality rate was highest for non-Hispanic Black adults and was ∼2-fold higher compared with non-Hispanic White adults. Young and middle-aged adults (25-69 years) had increasing age-adjusted mortality rates in recent years. There were significant urban-rural disparities, and age-adjusted mortality rates in rural counties increased from 2014 to 2019 (annual percent change 2.2; 95% CI, 1.5-2.9); states in the 90^th percentile of mortality had age-adjusted mortality rates that were ∼2-fold higher than those in the bottom 10^th percentile of mortality.

CONCLUSION

After an initial decrease in DM + CVD-related mortality for a decade, this trend has reversed, with increasing mortality from 2014 to 2019. Significant geographic and demographic disparities persist, requiring targeted health policy interventions to prevent the loss of years of progress.

The Impact of Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure on Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus-Related Mortality among U.S. Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Little of the previous literature has investigated associations between air pollution exposure and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM)-related mortality, despite a well-established link between air pollution exposure and other autoimmune diseases.

METHODS

In a cohort of 53 million Medicare beneficiaries living across the conterminous United States, we used Cox proportional hazard models to assess the association of long-term PM_2.5 and NO₂ exposures on T1DM-related mortality from 2000 to 2008. Models included strata for age, sex, race, and ZIP code and controlled for neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES); we additionally investigated associations in two-pollutant models, and whether associations were modified by participant demographics.

RESULTS

A 10 μg/m³ increase in 12-month average PM_2.5 (HR: 1.183; 95% CI: 1.037-1.349) and a 10 ppb increase in NO₂ (HR: 1.248; 95% CI: 1.089-1.431) was associated with an increased risk of T1DM-related mortality in age-, sex-, race-, ZIP code-, and SES-adjusted models. Associations for both pollutants were consistently stronger among Black (PM_2.5: HR:1.877, 95% CI: 1.386-2.542; NO₂: HR: 1.586, 95% CI: 1.258-2.001) and female (PM_2.5: HR:1.297, 95% CI: 1.101-1.529; NO₂: HR: 1.390, 95% CI: 1.187-1.627) beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term NO₂ and, to a lesser extent, PM_2.5 exposure is associated with statistically significant elevations in T1DM-related mortality risk.

Excess diabetes mellitus-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a critical risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection contributes to worsening glycemic control. The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly disrupted the delivery of care for patients with diabetes. We aimed to determine the trend of DM-related deaths during the pandemic.

METHODS

In this serial population-based study between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2021, mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years from the National Vital Statistics System dataset was analyzed. Decedents with DM as the underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificate were defined as DM-related deaths. Excess deaths were estimated by comparing observed versus expected age-standardized mortality rates derived from mortality during 2006-2019 with linear and polynomial regression models. The trends of mortality were quantified with joinpoint regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and state.

FINDINGS

Among 4·25 million DM-related deaths during 2006-2021, there was a significant surge of more than 30% in mortality during the pandemic, from 106·8 (per 100,000 persons) in 2019 to 144·1 in 2020 and 148·3 in 2021. Adults aged 25-44 years had the most pronounced rise in mortality. Widened racial/ethnic disparity was observed, with Hispanics demonstrating the highest excess deaths (67·5%; 95% CI 60·9-74·7%), almost three times that of non-Hispanic whites (23·9%; 95% CI 21·2-26·7%).

INTERPRETATION

The United States saw an increase in DM-related mortality during the pandemic. The disproportionate rise in young adults and the widened racial/ethnic disparity warrant urgent preventative interventions from diverse stakeholders.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020

Background

Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases.

Methods

A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 – 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths.

Conclusions

All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13491-4.

Long-term exposure to objective and perceived residential greenness and diabetes mortality: A census-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Residing close to green spaces might reduce diabetes mellitus (DM) risk; however, evidence for diabetes mortality is limited. Moreover, individual and neighbourhood social factors may determine DM risk. Exposure to green spaces may also depend on socioeconomic position (SEP). This study examined the associations between residential greenness and diabetes-related mortality, and the role of the social environment in these associations.

METHODS

We used the 2001 Belgian census linked to mortality register data for the period 2001-2014. We included individuals aged 40-79 years old and residing in the five largest Belgian urban areas at baseline. Exposure to residential greenness was assessed with surrounding greenness using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within 500-m of residence (objective indicator), and perceived neighbourhood greenness (subjective indicator). We conducted mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models to obtain hazard ratios (HR) for diabetes-related mortality per interquartile range (IQR) increments of residential greenness. We assessed effect modification by social factors through stratification.

RESULTS

From 2,309,236 individuals included at baseline, 1.2% died from DM during follow-up. Both residential greenness indicators were inversely associated with diabetes-related mortality after adjustment for individual social factors. After controlling for neighbourhood SEP, the beneficial association with surrounding greenness disappeared [HR 1.02 (95%CI:0.99,1.06)], but persisted with perceived neighbourhood greenness [HR 0.93 (95%CI:0.91,0.95)]. After stratification the inverse associations with perceived neighbourhood greenness were strongest for women, the lowest educated, and individuals residing in least deprived neighbourhoods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that an overall positive perception of neighbourhood green spaces reduces independently the risk of diabetes-related mortality, regardless of the neighbourhood social environment. Nevertheless, neighbourhood SEP may be a strong confounder in the associations between diabetes-related mortality and greenness indicators derived from satellite images. Perception factors not captured by objective measurements of green spaces are potentially relevant in the association with DM, especially among disadvantaged groups.

Heart Involvement in Diabetes mellitus Patients

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most significant medical and social health problems worldwide. The main cause of death in patients with DM is cardiovascular diseases, which leads to the significant decrease in quality of life and life expectancy. The aim of this literature review is analyze of the frequency, mechanisms and manifestations of heart disease in diabetes patients. A significant amount of the modern researches is devoted to the diagnosis and treatment of the diabetes complications, including diabetic cardiomyopathy (DC). According to many authors, heart disease in diabetes is associated with the formation of DC, comorbid coronary heart disease and arterial hypertension. DC occurs in 16.8–54% of patients with diabetes and is an independent factor which increases the death risk by 50–60%. Numerous scientific studies have been devoted to the diagnosis and treatment of DC, emphasizing that in order to reduce cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with diabetes, it is necessary, above all, to achieve glycemic control. Diabetic history, age, comorbidities, atherosclerotic lesions, smoking, overweight or obesity also play an important role. The main aspects of the development and impact of diabetes on the health and life of patients are the untimely diagnosis of this disease, its multifactorial pathogenesis, progressive course and severity of complications. Due to development of the early complications and disability, studies of morphofunctional changes in the myocardium in diabetes are extremely relevant, as cardiomyopathy may increase the risk of myocardial infarction and heart failure. The rapid increase in the number of patients with diabetes, many of whom die from cardiovascular complications, makes the problem of diabetic heart disease one of the most pressing health problems. Treatment of these patients should include correction of carbohydrate metabolism, control of blood lipid composition, decrease in myocardial ischemia, correction of the myocardial metabolism and the risk of heart failure.

High Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus and Mental Illness Among Victims of Sudden Death

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and is associated with sudden death. Mental illness among individuals with DM may confound medical care. This study assessed the association of mental illness with DM and poorly controlled DM in sudden death victims.

METHODS

We screened out-of-hospital deaths ages 18 to 64 years in Wake County, North Carolina from 2013 to 2015 to adjudicate sudden deaths. We abstracted demographics and clinical characteristics from health records. Mental illness included anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depression. Poorly controlled DM was defined as a hemoglobin A1c >8 or taking ≥3 medications for glycemic control. Logistic regression assessed the association between DM and mental illness.

RESULTS

Among victims with available records, 109 (29.4%) had DM. Of those, 62 (56.9%) had mental illness. Mental illness was present in 53.42% and 63.89% of victims with mild and poorly controlled DM, respectively. Mental illness was associated with DM (adjusted odds ratio 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.57-3.91). Victims with poorly controlled DM were more likely to have mental illness (adjusted odds ratio 2.66, 95% confidence interval 1.14-6.18).

CONCLUSIONS

DM is a common comorbid condition in sudden death victims. Among victims, mental illness is associated with the control of DM. Early management of comorbid mental illnesses may improve the care of patients with DM and reduce the incidence of sudden death.

Assessing the relationship between institutional cancer and diabetes mortality rates using National Death Index data

Aim:

To evaluate overall survival (OS), glycemic control in cancer patients with and without diabetes mellitus (DM).

Patients & methods:

Patients (2010–2015) with newly diagnosed prostate, breast, lung, colorectal and pancreatic cancers were identified in institutional cancer registry. Data linked to National Death Index for vital status. 5-year OS estimated; glucose and hemoglobin A_1c assessed during year postdiagnosis.

Results:

We identified 1404 patients (non-DM, n = 936; DM, n = 468). DM cohort had 168 deaths (36%); non-DM, 267 (29%). 5-year OS estimated at 58% (95% CI: 53–64%) for DM and 67% (95% CI: 64–71%) for controls; for matched pairs, hazard ratio: 1.35 (95% CI: 1.02–1.79). Cancer did not harm glycemic control.

Conclusion:

OS among cancer patients with DM was lower than without DM.

The aim of this study was to assess how diabetes mellitus (DM) and cancer interact to influence overall survival and glycemic control, through use of a national mortality database, the National Death Index. Institutional records of patients with prostate, lung, breast, colorectal and pancreatic cancers were linked to the National Death Index. Analyses showed that DM was associated with lower overall survival, but a diagnosis of cancer did not worsen glycemic control in patients with or without DM.

Hypouricemia and Mortality Risk in the US General Population

OBJECTIVE

The most recent European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) recommendations for gout advise against maintaining a serum urate (SU) level of <3 mg/dl for prolonged periods of time. While several Asian cohort studies have shown higher rates of mortality in individuals with extremely low SU levels, data from non-Asian cohort studies are scarce, and the relationship between hypouricemia, cardiovascular risk, and mortality remains unclear.

METHODS

Using data collected from the 1988-1994 and 1999-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we examined the relationship between SU level and overall and cause-specific mortality in 41,807 adults in the US. We calculated multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) that were compared to a referent SU level of 5-6 mg/dl for SU categories <4, 4-5, 6-7, 7-8, and >8 mg/dl in men and SU categories <3, 3-4, 4-5, 6-7, and >7 mg/dl in women.

RESULTS

A higher mortality risk was not observed in women who had an SU level of <3 mg/dl (HR 1.09 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.92-1.28]). A 28% higher mortality risk was observed in men who had an SU level of <4 mg/dl (HR 1.28 [95% CI 1.13-1.45]), with a nearly three-times higher mortality risk from diabetes mellitus also noted (HR 2.89 [95% CI 1.59-5.23]), but no increase in mortality from any other specific cause.

CONCLUSION

We found no long-term excess mortality risk among American women with SU levels as low as <3 mg/dl, a finding which is incompatible with the notion of a causal relationship between hypouricemia and premature mortality in women. We found excess all-cause mortality and diabetes mellitus-related mortality among hypouricemic American men, which may in part be attributable to the uricosuric effect of hyperglycemia in fatal uncontrolled diabetes mellitus (analogous to reverse causality).

Stall in Heart Disease Death Rates, Evidence From Maine, 1999-2017

INTRODUCTION

Since the 1950s, heart disease deaths have declined in the United States, but recent reports indicate a plateau in this decline. Heart disease death rates increased in Maine from 2011-2015. We examined reasons for the trend change in Maine's heart disease death rates, including the contributing types of heart disease.

METHODS

We obtained Maine's annual heart disease death data for 1999-2017 from CDC's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). We used joinpoint regression to determine changes in trend and annual percentage change (APC) in death rates for heart disease overall and by demographic groups, types of heart disease, and geographic area.

RESULTS

Joinpoint modeling showed that Maine's age-adjusted heart disease death rates decreased during 1999-2010 (-4.2% APC), then plateaued during 2010-2017 (-0.1% APC). Death rates flattened for both sexes and age groups ≥45 years. Although death rates for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) decreased through 2017, hypertensive heart disease (HHD) and heart failure death rates increased. Death rates attributable to diabetes-related heart disease and non-AMI ischemic heart disease (IHD) plateaued.

CONCLUSION

Declines in Maine's heart disease death rates have plateaued, similar to national trends. Flattening rates appear to be driven by adverse trends in HHD, heart failure, diabetes-related heart disease, and non-AMI IHD. Increased efforts to address cardiovascular disease risk factors, chronic heart disease, and access to care are necessary to continue the decrease in heart disease deaths in Maine.

Diabetes-attributable mortality in the United States from 2003 to 2016 using a multiple-cause-of-death approach

AIMS

Deaths attributable to diabetes may be underestimated using an underlying cause of death (COD) approach in U.S. death records. This study sought to characterize the burden of diabetes deaths using a multiple-cause of death approach (underlying and contributing COD) and to identify temporal changes in co-reported causes of death among those with diabetes listed anywhere on their death records.

METHODS

COD were identified using data from the National Center for Health Statistics from 2003 to 2016. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates for diabetes as the underlying or contributing COD by race/ethnicity. We used ICD-10 codes to identify leading causes of death among those with and without diabetes on their death records. We compared temporal changes in deaths due to cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, and other causes.

RESULTS

The study population included 34,313,964 decedents aged ≥25 from 2003 to 2016. Diabetes was listed as an underlying COD in approximately 3.0% (n = 1,031,000) and 6.7% (n = 2,295,510) of the death records, respectively. Decedents with diabetes listed as an underlying COD experienced a 16% decline in mortality, and the race/ethnicity-specific average annual percentage changes (AAPC) showed significant declining trends for most groups (AAPC ranged from 0.18 to -2.83%). Cardiovascular disease remained the leading underlying COD among diabetes-attributable deaths, although its proportion of deaths fell from 31 to 27% over time. Co-reported COD diversified, and were more likely to include hypertension and hypertensive renal disease among those with diabetes on their death records.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underscore the importance of using a multiple-cause-of-death approach for more completely characterizing diabetes' contribution to mortality.

Pancreas Transplantation: Indications, Techniques, and Outcomes

Pancreas transplantation treats insulin-dependent diabetes with or without concurrent end-stage renal disease. Pancreas transplantation increases survival versus no transplant, increases survival when performed as simultaneous pancreas-kidney versus deceased-donor kidney alone, and improves quality of life. Careful donor and recipient selection are paramount to good outcomes. Several technical variations exist for implantation: portal versus systemic vascular drainage and jejunal versus duodenal versus bladder exocrine drainage. Complications are most frequently technical in the first year and immunologic thereafter. Graft rejection is challenging to diagnose and is treated selectively. Islet cell transplantation currently has inferior outcomes to whole-organ pancreas transplantation.

Global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality in 109 countries, from 2000 to 2014: an analysis of death certificates

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

In the context of increasing prevalence of diabetes in elderly people with multimorbidity, intensive glucose control may increase the risk of severe hypoglycaemia, potentially leading to death. While rising trends of severe hypoglycaemia rates have been reported in some European, North American and Asian countries, the global burden of hypoglycaemia-related mortality is unknown. We aimed to investigate global differences and trends of hypoglycaemia-related mortality.

METHODS

We used the WHO mortality database to extract information on death certificates reporting hypoglycaemia or diabetes as the underlying cause of death, and the United Nations demographic database to obtain data on mid-year population estimates from 2000 to 2014. We calculated crude and age-standardised proportions (defined as number of hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by total number of deaths from diabetes [i.e. the sum of hypoglycaemia- and diabetes-related deaths]) and rates (hypoglycaemia-related deaths divided by mid-year population) of hypoglycaemia-related mortality and compared estimates across countries and over time.

RESULTS

Data for proportions were extracted from 109 countries (31 had data from all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised proportion of hypoglycaemia-related deaths was 4.49 (95% CI 4.44, 4.55) per 1000 total diabetes deaths. Compared with the overall mean, most Central American, South American and (mainly) Caribbean countries reported higher proportions (five more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths in Chile, six in Uruguay, 11 in Belize and 22 in Aruba), as well as Japan (11 more age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related deaths per 1000 total diabetes deaths). In comparison, lower proportions were noted in most European countries, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. For countries with data available for all years analysed, trend analysis showed a 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable trends onwards. Rising trends were most evident for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, the USA and Japan. Data for rates were available for 105 countries (30 had data for all years analysed [2000-2014] available). Combining all countries, the age-standardised hypoglycaemia-related death rate was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77, 0.80) per 1 million person-years. Most Central American, South American and Caribbean countries similarly reported higher rates of hypoglycaemia-related death, whilst virtually all European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and Australia reported lower rates compared with the overall mean. Age-standardised rates were very low for most countries (lower than five per 1 million person-years in 89.5% of countries), resulting in small absolute differences among countries. As noted with the proportions analysis, trend analysis showed an overall 60% increase in hypoglycaemia-related deaths until 2010 and stable rate trends onwards; rising rates were particularly evident for Brazil, Chile and the USA.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Most countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean showed the highest proportions of diabetes-related deaths attributable to hypoglycaemia and the highest rates of hypoglycaemia-related deaths. Between 2000 and 2014, rising trends were observed in Brazil, Chile and the USA for both rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related death, and in Argentina and Japan for proportions only. Further studies are required to unravel the contribution of clinical and socioeconomic factors, difference in diabetes prevalence and heterogeneity of death certification in determining lower rates and proportions of hypoglycaemia-related deaths in high-income countries in Europe, North America and Asia.

DATA AVAILABILITY

Data used for these analyses are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/ndp52fbz8r.1.

Do Death Certificates Underestimate the Burden of Rare Diseases? The Example of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality, Sweden, 2001-2013

OBJECTIVES

Mortality due to rare diseases, which are substantial sources of premature mortality, is underreported in mortality studies. The objective of this study was to determine the completeness of reporting systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a cause of death.

METHODS

In 2017, we linked data on a Swedish population-based cohort (the Swedish Lupus Linkage, 2001-2013) comprising people with SLE (n = 8560) and their matched general population comparators (n = 37 717) to data from the Cause of Death Register. We reviewed death records of deceased people from the cohort (n = 5110) and extracted data on patient demographic characteristics and causes of death. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for not reporting SLE as a cause of death by using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1802 deaths among SLE patients in the study, 1071 (59%) did not have SLE reported on their death records. Most SLE decedents were aged 75-84 at death (n = 584, 32%), female (n = 1462, 81%), and born in Nordic countries (n = 1730, 96%). Decedents aged ≥85 at death were more likely to have SLE not reported on their death records than were decedents aged <50 (OR = 2.34; 95% CI, 1.48-3.68). Having renal failure listed as a cause of death decreased the likelihood of SLE not being reported on the death record (OR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73), whereas having cancer listed as a cause of death increased this likelihood (OR = 2.39; 95% CI, 1.85-3.07).

CONCLUSIONS

SLE was greatly underreported as a cause of mortality on death records of SLE patients, particularly in older decedents and those with cancer, thereby underestimating the true burden of this disease. Public health resources need to focus on improving the recording of rare diseases in order to enhance the epidemiological utility of mortality data.

Do Death Certificates Underestimate the Burden of Rare Diseases? The Example of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality, Sweden, 2001-2013

OBJECTIVES

Mortality due to rare diseases, which are substantial sources of premature mortality, is underreported in mortality studies. The objective of this study was to determine the completeness of reporting systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) as a cause of death.

METHODS

In 2017, we linked data on a Swedish population-based cohort (the Swedish Lupus Linkage, 2001-2013) comprising people with SLE (n = 8560) and their matched general population comparators (n = 37 717) to data from the Cause of Death Register. We reviewed death records of deceased people from the cohort (n = 5110) and extracted data on patient demographic characteristics and causes of death. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for not reporting SLE as a cause of death by using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 1802 deaths among SLE patients in the study, 1071 (59%) did not have SLE reported on their death records. Most SLE decedents were aged 75-84 at death (n = 584, 32%), female (n = 1462, 81%), and born in Nordic countries (n = 1730, 96%). Decedents aged ≥85 at death were more likely to have SLE not reported on their death records than were decedents aged <50 (OR = 2.34; 95% CI, 1.48-3.68). Having renal failure listed as a cause of death decreased the likelihood of SLE not being reported on the death record (OR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73), whereas having cancer listed as a cause of death increased this likelihood (OR = 2.39; 95% CI, 1.85-3.07).

CONCLUSIONS

SLE was greatly underreported as a cause of mortality on death records of SLE patients, particularly in older decedents and those with cancer, thereby underestimating the true burden of this disease. Public health resources need to focus on improving the recording of rare diseases in order to enhance the epidemiological utility of mortality data.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among adults with and without diagnosed diabetes in the USA: an epidemiological analysis of linked national survey and vital statistics data

BACKGROUND

Large reductions in diabetes complications have altered diabetes-related morbidity in the USA. It is unclear whether similar trends have occurred in causes of death.

METHODS

Using data from the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality files from 1985 to 2015, we estimated age-specific death rates and proportional mortality from all causes, vascular causes, cancers, and non-vascular, non-cancer causes among US adults by diabetes status.

FINDINGS

From 1988-94, to 2010-15, all-cause death rates declined by 20% every 10 years among US adults with diabetes (from 23·1 [95% CI 20·1-26·0] to 15·2 [14·6-15·8] per 1000 person-years), while death from vascular causes decreased 32% every 10 years (from 11·0 [9·2-12·2] to 5·2 [4·8-5·6] per 1000 person-years), deaths from cancers decreased 16% every 10 years (from 4·4 [3·2-5·5] to 3·0 [2·8-3·3] per 1000 person-years), and the rate of non-vascular, non-cancer deaths declined by 8% every 10 years (from 7·7 [6·3-9·2] to 7·1 [6·6-7·5]). Death rates also declined significantly among people without diagnosed diabetes for all four major mortality categories. However, the declines in death rates were significantly greater among people with diabetes for all-causes (p_interaction<0·0001), vascular causes (p_interaction=0·0214), and non-vascular, non-cancer causes (p_interation<0·0001), as differences in all-cause and vascular disease death between people with and without diabetes were reduced by about a half. Among people with diabetes, all-cause mortality rates declined most in men and adults aged 65-74 years of age, and there was no decline in death rates among adults aged 20-44 years. The different magnitude of changes in cause-specific mortality led to large changes in the proportional mortality. The proportion of total deaths among adults with diabetes from vascular causes declined from 47·8% (95% CI 38·9-58·8) in 1988-94 to 34·1% (31·4-37·1) in 2010-15; this decline was offset by large increases in the proportion of deaths from non-vascular, non-cancer causes, from 33·5% (26·7-42·1) to 46·5% (43·3-50·0). The proportion of deaths caused by cancer was relatively stable over time, ranging from 16% to 20%.

INTERPRETATION

Declining rates of vascular disease mortality are leading to a diversification of forms of diabetes-related mortality with implications for clinical management, prevention, and disease monitoring.

FUNDING

None.

Geographic Information Systems to Assess External Validity in Randomized Trials

INTRODUCTION

To support claims that RCTs can reduce health disparities (i.e., are translational), it is imperative that methodologies exist to evaluate the tenability of external validity in RCTs when probabilistic sampling of participants is not employed. Typically, attempts at establishing post hoc external validity are limited to a few comparisons across convenience variables, which must be available in both sample and population. A Type 2 diabetes RCT was used as an example of a method that uses a geographic information system to assess external validity in the absence of a priori probabilistic community-wide diabetes risk sampling strategy.

METHODS

A geographic information system, 2009-2013 county death certificate records, and 2013-2014 electronic medical records were used to identify community-wide diabetes prevalence. Color-coded diabetes density maps provided visual representation of these densities. Chi-square goodness of fit statistic/analysis tested the degree to which distribution of RCT participants varied across density classes compared to what would be expected, given simple random sampling of the county population. Analyses were conducted in 2016.

RESULTS

Diabetes prevalence areas as represented by death certificate and electronic medical records were distributed similarly. The simple random sample model was not a good fit for death certificate record (chi-square, 17.63; p=0.0001) and electronic medical record data (chi-square, 28.92; p<0.0001). Generally, RCT participants were oversampled in high-diabetes density areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Location is a highly reliable "principal variable" associated with health disparities. It serves as a directly measurable proxy for high-risk underserved communities, thus offering an effective and practical approach for examining external validity of RCTs.

Diabetes mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015 (a nationwide study): A joinpoint regression analysis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of diabetes mellitus in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohia).

METHODS

A population-based cross sectional study analyzing diabetes mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2015 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the European Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

More than 63,000 (about 27,000 of men and 36,000 of women) diabetes deaths occurred in Serbia from 1991 to 2015. Death rates from diabetes were almost equal in men and in women (about 24.0 per 100,000) and places Serbia among the countries with the highest diabetes mortality rates in Europe. Since 1991, mortality from diabetes in men significantly increased by +1.2% per year (95% CI 0.7-1.7), but non-significantly increased in women by +0.2% per year (95% CI -0.4 to 0.7). Increased trends in diabetes type 1 mortality rates were significant in both genders in Serbia. Trends in mortality for diabetes type 2 showed a significant decrease in both genders since 2010.

CONCLUSION

Given that diabetes mortality trends showed different patterns during the studied period, our results imply that further observation of trend is needed.

Noncommunicable Diseases: Three Decades Of Global Data Show A Mixture Of Increases And Decreases In Mortality Rates

Noncommunicable diseases are the leading health concerns of the modern era, accounting for two-thirds of global deaths, half of all disability, and rapidly growing costs. To provide a contemporary overview of the burdens caused by noncommunicable diseases, we compiled mortality data reported by authorities in forty-nine countries for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases; diabetes; chronic respiratory diseases; and lung, colon, breast, cervical, liver, and stomach cancers. From 1980 to 2012, on average across all countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease, stomach cancer, and cervical cancer declined, while mortality for diabetes, liver cancer, and female chronic respiratory disease and lung cancer increased. In contrast to the relatively steep cardiovascular and cancer mortality declines observed in high-income countries, mortality for cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease was flat in most low- and middle-income countries, which also experienced increasing breast and colon cancer mortality. These divergent mortality patterns likely reflect differences in timing and magnitude of risk exposures, health care, and policies to counteract the diseases. Improving both the coverage and the accuracy of mortality documentation in populous low- and middle-income countries is a priority, as is the need to rigorously evaluate societal-level interventions. Furthermore, given the complex, chronic, and progressive nature of noncommunicable diseases, policies and programs to prevent and control them need to be multifaceted and long-term, as returns on investment accrue with time.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead.

Ten-year hemoglobin A1c trajectories and outcomes in type 2 diabetes mellitus: The Diabetes & Aging Study

AIMS

To classify trajectories of long term HbA1c values in patients after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and examine each trajectory's associations with subsequent microvascular and macrovascular events and mortality.

METHODS

A longitudinal follow-up of 28,016 patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes was conducted. Latent growth mixture modeling was used to identify ten-year HbA1c trajectories. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess how HbA1c trajectories were associated with events (microvascular and macrovascular) and mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 5 HbA1c trajectories: "low stable" (82.5%), "moderate increasing late" (5.1%), "high decreasing early" (4.9%), "moderate peaking late" (4.1%) and "moderate peaking early" (3.3%). After adjusting for average HbA1c, compared to the low stable trajectory, all non-stable trajectories were associated with higher incidences of microvascular events (hazard ratio (HR) range, 1.28 (95% CI, 1.08-1.53) (high decreasing early) to 1.45 (95% CI, 1.20-1.75) (moderate peaking early)). The high decreasing early trajectory was associated with an increased mortality risk (HR, 1.27 (95% CI, 1.03-1.58)). Trajectories were not associated with macrovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-stable HbA1c trajectories were associated with greater risk of microvascular events and mortality. These findings suggest a potential benefit of early diabetes detection, prioritizing good glycemic control, and maintaining control over time.

Caring for People with Diabetes at the End of Life

End-of-life care planning is assuming global significance. While general end-of-life care guidelines apply to diabetes, there are some diabetes-specific issues that need to be considered. These include the usual long trajectory to end-of-life care that enables clinicians and people with diabetes to proactively discuss when to change the focus of care from preventing diabetes complications (tight control) to a palliative approach. Palliative care aims to promote comfort and quality of life and reduce the unnecessary burden of care on individuals and their families. The aim of this paper is to discuss common disease trajectories and their relationship to diabetes care, outline strategies for proactively discussing these issues and suggest indications that palliative care is warranted.

Self-injury Mortality in the United States in the Early 21st Century: A Comparison With Proximally Ranked Diseases

Importance

Fatal self-injury in the United States associated with deliberate behaviors is seriously underestimated owing to misclassification of poisoning suicides and mischaracterization of most drug poisoning deaths as "accidents" on death certificates.

Objective

To compare national trends and patterns of self-injury mortality (SIM) with mortality from 3 proximally ranked top 10 causes of death: diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, and kidney disease.

Data, Setting, and Participants

Underlying cause-of-death data from 1999 to 2014 were extracted for this observational study from death certificate data in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research online databases. Linear time trends were compared by negative binomial regression with a log link function. Self-injury mortality was defined as a composite of suicides by any method and estimated deaths from drug self-intoxication whose manner was an "accident" or was undetermined.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mortality rates and ratios, cumulative mortality in individuals younger than 55 years, and years of life lost in 2014.

Results

There were an estimated 40 289 self-injury deaths in 1999 and 76 227 in 2014. Females comprised 8923 (22.1%) of the deaths in 1999 and 21 950 (28.8%) of the 76 227 deaths in 2014. The estimated crude rate for SIM increased 65% between 1999 and 2014, from 14.4 to 23.9 deaths per 100 000 persons (rate ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.04; P < .001). The SIM rate continuously exceeded the kidney disease mortality rate and surpassed the influenza and pneumonia mortality rate by 2006. By 2014, the SIM rate converged with the diabetes mortality rate. Additionally, the SIM rate was 1.8-fold higher than the suicide rate in 2014 vs 1.4-fold higher in 1999. The male-to-female ratio for SIM decreased from 3.7 in 1999 to 2.6 in 2014 (male by year: rate ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.98; P < .001). By 2014, SIM accounted for 32.2 and 36.6 years of life lost for male and female decedents, respectively, compared with 15.8 and 17.3 years from diabetes, 15.0 and 16.6 years from influenza and pneumonia, and 14.5 and 16.2 years from kidney disease.

Conclusions and Relevance

The burgeoning SIM [self-injury mortality] rate has converged with the mortality rate for diabetes, but there is a 6-fold differential in the proportion of SIM vs diabetes deaths involving people younger than 55 years and SIM is increasingly affecting women relative to men. Accurately characterizing, measuring, and monitoring this major clinical and public health challenge will be essential for developing a comprehensive etiologic understanding and evaluating preventive and therapeutic interventions.

Risk of Diabetes Mellitus on Incidence of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests: A Case-Control Study

Background

This study aimed to determine the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) on incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and to investigate whether difference in effects of DM between therapeutic methods was observed.

Methods

This study was a case-control study using the Cardiac Arrest Pursuit Trial with Unique Registration and Epidemiologic Surveillance (CAPTURES) project database and 2013 Korean Community Health Survey (CHS). Cases were defined as EMS-treated adult (18 year old and older) OHCA patients with presumed cardiac etiology collected at 27 emergency departments from January to December 2014. OHCA patients whose arrest occurred at nursing homes or clinics and cases with unknown information on DM were excluded. Four controls were matched to one case with strata including age, gender, and county from the Korean CHS database. Multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the risk of DM and treatment modality on incidence of OHCA.

Results

Total 1,386 OHCA patients and 5,544 community-based controls were analyzed. A total of 370 (26.7%) among cases and 860 (15.5%) among controls were diagnosed with DM. DM was associated with increasing risk of OHCA (AOR: 1.92 (1.65–2.24)). By DM treatment modality comparing with non-DM group, AOR (95% CI) was the highest in non-pharmacotherapy only group (4.65 (2.00–10.84)), followed by no treatment group (4.17 (2.91–5.96)), insulin group (2.69 (1.82–3.96)), and oral hypoglycemic agent group (1.55 (1.31–1.85)).

Conclusion

DM increased the risk of OHCA, which was the highest in the non-pharmacotherapy group and decreased in magnitude with pharmacotherapy.

High Israeli mortality rates from diabetes and renal failure - Can international comparison of multiple causes of death reflect differences in choice of underlying cause?

BACKGROUND

The age-adjusted mortality rate in Israel is low compared to most Western countries although mortality rates from diabetes and renal failure in Israel are amongst the highest, while those from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are amongst the lowest. This study aims to assess validity of choice of underlying causes (UC) in Israel by analyzing Israeli and international data on the prevalence of these diseases as multiple causes of death (MCOD) compared to UC, and data on comorbidity (MCOD based).

METHODS

Age-adjusted death rates were calculated for UC and MCOD and the corresponding ratio of multiple to underlying cause of death (SRMU) for available years between 1999 and 2012. Comorbidity was explored by calculating cause of death association indicators (CDAI) and frequency of comorbid disease. These results were compared to data from USA, France, Italy, Australia and the Czech Republic for 2009 or other available year.

RESULTS

Mortality rates for all these diseases except renal failure have decreased in Israel between 1999 and 2012 as UC and MCOD. In 2009, the SRMU for diabetes was 2.7, slightly lower than other Western countries (3.0-3.5) showing more frequent choice as UC. Similar results were found for renal failure. In contrast, the SRMU for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease were 2.0 and 2.6, respectively, higher than other countries (1.4-1.6 and 1.7-1.9, respectively), showing less frequent choice as UC. CDAI data showed a strong association between heart and cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes in all countries. In Israel, 40 % of deaths with UC diabetes had IHD and 24 % had cerebrovascular disease. Renal disease was less strongly associated with IHD.

CONCLUSION

This international comparison suggests that diabetes and renal failure may be coded more frequently in Israel as UC, sometimes instead of heart and cerebrovascular disease. Even with some changes in coding, mortality rates would be high compared to other countries, similar to the comparatively high diabetes prevalence in Israel at older ages and high rate of end-stage renal failure. This study highlights the importance of physician training on death certification practice and need for further progress towards automation in recording and coding death causes.

Mortality rates and the causes of death related to diabetes mellitus in Shanghai Songjiang District: an 11-year retrospective analysis of death certificates

BACKGROUND

China is one of the countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world. We analysed all the death certificates mentioning diabetes from 2002 to 2012 in Songjiang District of Shanghai to estimate morality rates and examine cause of death patterns.

METHODS

Mortality data of 2654 diabetics were collected from the database of local CDC. The data set comprises all causes of death, contributing causes and the underlying cause, thereby the mortality rates of diabetes and its specified complications were analysed.

RESULTS

The leading underlying causes of death were various cardiovascular diseases (CVD), which collectively accounted for about 30% of the collected death certificates. Diabetes was determined as the underlying cause of death on 28.7%. The trends in mortality showed that the diabetes related death rate increased about 1.78 fold in the total population during the 11-year period, and the death rate of diabetes and CVD comorbidity increased 2.66 fold. In all the diabetes related deaths, the proportion of people dying of ischaemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease increased from 18.0% in 2002 to 30.5% in 2012. But the proportions attributed directly to diabetes showed a downtrend, from 46.7-22.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing diabetes related mortality could be chiefly due to the expanding prevalence of CVD, but has nothing to do with diabetes as the underlying cause. Policy makers should pay more attention to primary prevention of diabetes and on the prevention of cardiovascular complications to reduce the burden of diabetes on survival.

Ascertainment of outpatient visits by patients with diabetes: The National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) and the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS)

AIMS

To estimate and evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of providers' diagnosis codes and medication lists to identify outpatient visits by patients with diabetes.

METHODS

We used data from the 2006 to 2010 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of providers' diagnoses and medication lists to identify patients with diabetes, using the checkbox for diabetes as the gold standard. We then examined differences in sensitivity by patients' characteristics using multivariate logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The checkbox identified 12,647 outpatient visits by adults with diabetes among the 70,352 visits used for this analysis. The sensitivity and specificity of providers' diagnoses or listed diabetes medications were 72.3% (95% CI: 70.8% to 73.8%) and 99.2% (99.1% to 99.4%), respectively. Diabetic patients ≥75 years of age, women, non-Hispanics, and those with private insurance or Medicare were more likely to be missed by providers' diagnoses and medication lists. Diabetic patients who had more diagnosis codes and medications recorded, had glucose or hemoglobin A1c measured, or made office- rather than hospital-outpatient visits were less likely to be missed.

CONCLUSIONS

Providers' diagnosis codes and medication lists fail to identify approximately one quarter of outpatient visits by patients with diabetes.

Reduced total and cause-specific mortality from walking and running in diabetes

PURPOSE

This study aimed to assess the relationships of running and walking to mortality in diabetic subjects.

METHODS

We studied the mortality surveillance between January 1, 1989 and December 31, 2008, of 2160 participants of the National Walkers' and Runners' Health Studies who reported using diabetic medications at baseline. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained from Cox proportional hazard analyses for mortality versus exercise energy expenditure (MET-hours per day, 1 MET·h ∼1-km run or a 1.5-km brisk walk).

RESULTS

Three hundred and thirty-one diabetic individuals died during a 9.8-yr average follow-up. Merely meeting the current exercise recommendations was not associated with lower all-cause mortality (P = 0.61), whereas exceeding the recommendations was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.49-0.82, P = 0.0005). Greater MET-hours per day ran or walked was associated with 40% lower risk for all chronic kidney disease-related deaths (HR = 0.60 per MET·h·d(-1), 95% CI = 0.35-0.91, P = 0.02), 31% lower risk for all sepsis-related deaths (HR = 0.69, 0.47-0.94, P = 0.01), and 31% lower risk for all pneumonia and influenza-related deaths (HR = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.45-0.97, P = 0.03). Running or walking ≥1.8 MET·h·d(-1) was associated with 57% reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) as an underlying cause of death and 46% lower risk for all CVD-related deaths versus <1.07 MET·h·d. All results remained significant: 1) adjusted for baseline BMI and 2) excluding all deaths within 3 yr of baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that 1) exercise is associated with significantly lower all-cause, CVD, chronic kidney disease, sepsis, and pneumonia, and influenza mortality in diabetic patients and 2) higher exercise standards may be warranted for diabetic patients than currently provided to the general population.

Assessing the burden of diabetes mellitus in emergency departments in the United States: the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of three alternative methods to identify diabetes in patients visiting Emergency Departments (EDs), and to describe the characteristics of patients with diabetes who are not identified when the alternative methods are used.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) 2009 and 2010. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of using providers' diagnoses and diabetes medications (both excluding and including biguanides) to identify diabetes compared to using the checkbox for diabetes as the gold standard. We examined the characteristics of patients whose diabetes was missed using multivariate Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

The checkbox identified 5,567 ED visits by adult patients with diabetes. Compared to the checkbox, the sensitivity was 12.5% for providers' diagnoses alone, 20.5% for providers' diagnoses and diabetes medications excluding biguanides, and 21.5% for providers' diagnoses and diabetes medications including biguanides. The specificity of all three of the alternative methods was >99%. Older patients were more likely to have diabetes not identified. Patients with self-payment, those who had glucose measured or received IV fluids in the ED, and those with more diagnosis codes and medications, were more likely to have diabetes identified.

CONCLUSIONS

NHAMCS's providers' diagnosis codes and medication lists do not identify the majority of patients with diabetes visiting EDs. The newly introduced checkbox is helpful in measuring ED resource utilization by patients with diabetes.

Trend in rates for deaths with mention of schizophrenia on death certificates of US residents, 1999-2010

BACKGROUND

Trends in mortality rates for schizophrenia using multiple causes of death (including contributory causes) coded on death certificates in the US resident population apparently have not been reported.

METHODS

Age-standardized rates for deaths per 100,000 in 1999-2010 at age 15+ years (and for 15-64 and 65+ years) with mention of schizophrenia were examined for the US resident population, including variation by age, gender, race (blacks/African Americans and whites) and region.

RESULTS

Deaths at age 15+ years coded with schizophrenia as underlying cause were only 12 % of all deaths with mention of schizophrenia, for which the rate declined from 1.58 in 1999 (3,407 deaths) to 1.32 in 2010 (3,422 deaths) (percentage change or PC = -16 %). Declines were larger in females than males, in whites than blacks, and occurred in the Northeast, Midwest and South but not the West. The rate increased for age 15-64 years (PC = +28 %) (mainly in males), however, while declining for age 65+ years (PC = -35 %). For deaths at age 15-64 years with schizophrenia coded as other than the underlying cause, the largest continuous increase was for endocrine-metabolic diseases (predominantly diabetes mellitus) as underlying cause, with smaller increases in males for cardiovascular diseases, external causes and neoplasms.

CONCLUSION

Trends in the US rate for deaths with mention of schizophrenia varied among the sociodemographic groups examined. The lack of decline for age 15-64 years requires further study especially with regard to mediators (e.g., obesity) of excess mortality in schizophrenia identified from cohort studies.

Trends and disparities in heart disease mortality among American Indians/Alaska Natives, 1990-2009

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated heart disease death rates among American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/ANs) and Whites after improving identification of AI/AN populations.

METHODS

Indian Health Service (IHS) registration data were linked to the National Death Index for 1990 to 2009 to identify deaths among AI/AN persons aged 35 years and older with heart disease listed as the underlying cause of death (UCOD) or 1 of multiple causes of death (MCOD). We restricted analyses to IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Areas and to non-Hispanic populations.

RESULTS

Heart disease death rates were higher among AI/AN persons than Whites from 1999 to 2009 (1.21 times for UCOD, 1.30 times for MCOD). Disparities were highest in younger age groups and in the Northern Plains, but lowest in the East and Southwest. In AI/AN persons, MCOD rates were 84% higher than UCOD rates. From 1990 to 2009, UCOD rates declined among Whites, but only declined significantly among AI/AN persons after 2003.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis with improved race identification indicated that AI/AN populations experienced higher heart disease death rates than Whites. Better prevention and more effective care of heart disease is needed for AI/AN populations.

Epidemiology of Diabetes Mellitus: A Current Review

Diabetes mellitus represents worldwide an extremely important public healthproblem considering its high prevalence, the serious complications triggered by thedisease, the associated rate of mortality and, not the least, the extremely higheconomic and social costs. In 1995 approximately 135 million persons were affectedby diabetes and an increase of 300 million cases was estimated by the year 2025. Atthe end of 2012 a number of 347 million persons with diabetes was estimated, with aprediction of 552 million cases in 2030, that is 9.9% from the world’s adultpopulation. The question asked on an annual basis is: „Diabetes where do we go?Can we stop the dramatic evolution?”

Screening for hyperglycemia in the developing world: rationale, challenges and opportunities

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes are increasingly high in developing countries, where detection rates remain very low. This manuscript discusses the rationale, challenges and opportunities for early detection of diabetes and prediabetes in developing countries.

METHODS

PubMed was searched up to March 2012 for studies addressing screening for hyperglycemia in developing countries. Relevant studies were summarized through key questions derived from the Wilson and Junger criteria.

RESULTS

In developing countries, diabetes predominantly affects working-age persons, has high rates of complications and devastating economic impacts. These countries are ill-equipped to handle advanced stages of the disease. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid screening in these countries. Interventions shown to be cost-effective in preventing diabetes and its complications in developed countries can be used in screen-detected people of developing countries. However, effective implementation of these interventions remains a challenge, and the costs and benefits of diabetes screening in these settings are less well-known. Implementing screening policies in developing countries will require health systems strengthening, through creative funding and staff training.

CONCLUSIONS

For many compelling reasons, screening for hyperglycemia preferably targeted, should be a policy priority in developing countries. This will help reorient health systems toward cost-saving prevention.

Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm

BACKGROUND

Data on causes of death by age and sex are a critical input into health decision-making. Priority setting in public health should be informed not only by the current magnitude of health problems but by trends in them. However, cause of death data are often not available or are subject to substantial problems of comparability. We propose five general principles for cause of death model development, validation, and reporting.

METHODS

We detail a specific implementation of these principles that is embodied in an analytical tool - the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) - which explores a large variety of possible models to estimate trends in causes of death. Possible models are identified using a covariate selection algorithm that yields many plausible combinations of covariates, which are then run through four model classes. The model classes include mixed effects linear models and spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression models for cause fractions and death rates. All models for each cause of death are then assessed using out-of-sample predictive validity and combined into an ensemble with optimal out-of-sample predictive performance.

RESULTS

Ensemble models for cause of death estimation outperform any single component model in tests of root mean square error, frequency of predicting correct temporal trends, and achieving 95% coverage of the prediction interval. We present detailed results for CODEm applied to maternal mortality and summary results for several other causes of death, including cardiovascular disease and several cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

CODEm produces better estimates of cause of death trends than previous methods and is less susceptible to bias in model specification. We demonstrate the utility of CODEm for the estimation of several major causes of death.