Predictive Value of Fasting Glucose, Postload Glucose, and Hemoglobin A1c on Risk of Diabetes and Complications in Chinese Adults

Circulating short-chain and branched short-chain fatty acids and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes: findings from the 4C study

Previous studies suggested that fecal short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and branched short-chain fatty acids (BCFAs) are associated with glucose regulation. However, the potential relationship between circulating SCFAs and BCFAs with incident diabetes risk in both men and women remains unidentified in prospective cohort studies. In this study, we examined a panel of nine serum SCFAs and BCFAs in 3414 subjects with incident diabetes, and matched normoglycemic controls from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort study. In fully adjusted conditional logistic regression models, total SCFAs, total BCFAs, and isovaleric acid were significantly associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (P < 0.05). Interestingly, gender-specific analysis showed that per standard deviation (SD) increment of SCFAs were positively associated with incident T2DM among women, with the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.16 (1.05-1.29) for total SCFAs and 1.18 (1.07-1.31) for propionate, respectively (P < 0.05, false discovery rate (FDR) < 0.05). No significant associations were observed in men. A significant interaction was detected between men and women for propionate (P interaction < 0.001, FDR < 0.01). After further adjustment of insulin measurements, the associations of serum propionate with diabetes remained significant (P < 0.05, FDR < 0.05). Meanwhile, the associations of total BCFAs and isovaleric acid with diabetes were partially mediated by triglycerides, insulin resistance, and β-cell function in mediation analysis. These findings, for the first time in a large prospective cohort, provide evidence for an association between circulating SCFAs and BCFAs with T2DM risk, and support the potential role of circulating propionate with gender disparities in the early pathogenesis of diabetes.

Effect of dietary anthocyanins on the risk factors related to metabolic syndrome: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis aims to systematically investigate whether dietary anthocyanin supplementation can reduce metabolic syndrome (MetS)-related risk factors: abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia (low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and hypertriglyceridemia), hypertension, and hyperglycemia by conducting a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

A systematic search of 5 electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Library, and Embase) was conducted from inception until April 25, 2024. A total of 1213 studies were identified, of which randomized controlled trials involving subjects with MetS-related factors, comparing dietary anthocyanin supplementation with placebo, and reporting results on anthropometric, physiological, and metabolic markers relevant to this study were selected. Depending on the heterogeneity of the included studies, a fixed-effect model was applied for low heterogeneity (I2 < 50%), whereas a random-effects model was employed when substantial heterogeneity was present (I2 ≥ 50%). The weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 29 randomized controlled trials with 2006 participants. The results showed that dietary anthocyanins significantly improved various lipid and glycemic markers: HDL-C: increased by 0.05 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.10, p = 0.026), LDL-C: decreased by 0.18 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.28 to -0.08, p = 0.000), Triglycerides (TGs): reduced by 0.11 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.20 to -0.02, p = 0.021), Total cholesterol (TC): lowered by 0.34 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.49 to -0.18, p = 0.000), Fasting blood glucose (FBG): reduced by 0.29 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.46 to -0.12, p = 0.001), Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c): decreased by 0.43% (95% CI: -0.74 to -0.13, p = 0.005). Weight: (WMD: -0.12 kg, 95% CI: -0.45 to 0.21, p = 0.473), Body mass index (BMI): (WMD: -0.12 kg/m2, 95% CI: -0.26 to 0.03, p = 0.12), Overall WC: (WMD: 0.18 cm, 95% CI: -0.51 to 0.87, p = 0.613), Systolic blood pressure (SBP): (WMD: -0.12 mmHg, 95% CI: -1.06 to 0.82, p = 0.801), Diastolic blood pressure (DBP): (WMD: 0.61 mmHg, 95% CI: -0.03 to 1.25, p = 0.061), Insulin levels: (WMD: -0.02 mU/L, 95% CI: -0.44 to 0.40, p = 0.932), HOMA-IR: (WMD: -0.11, 95% CI: -0.51 to 0.28, p = 0.573). Additionally, a 100 mg/day dosage of anthocyanins significantly reduced: Waist circumference (WC): by 0.55 cm (95% CI: -1.09 to -0.01, p = 0.047). Subgroup analyses based on intervention duration, anthocyanin dosage, health status, formulation, dosage frequency, physical activity levels, and baseline levels of corresponding markers revealed varying significances, particularly in relation to blood pressure.

CONCLUSION

Dietary anthocyanins effectively improve low HDL cholesterol, hypertriglyceridemia, and hyperglycemia, making them a promising adjunct for managing MetS. However, it is important to note that dietary anthocyanin interventions may raise systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) depending on intervention dose, duration, participant health status, and formulation. Clinicians should fully consider these effects when recommending anthocyanin supplementation. Further long-term, well-designed, large-scale clinical trials are needed to draw definitive conclusions.

Associations of three diagnostic glycemic measures with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in people not on antidiabetic medications: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the value of three diagnostic glycemic measures, i.e., 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) during 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), in predicting risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality after adjusting for the influence of these glycemic measures on each other.

METHODS

A total of 14,013 U.S. adults who were not on antidiabetic medications when recruited were identified from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and NHANES 2005-2016. High blood glucose was defined as 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L, FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L, or HbA1c ≥6.5 %, according to the American Diabetes Association 2023 standards. Two approaches were adopted to examine the value of each glycemic measure in predicting mortality risk while controlling the influence of the other two measures: (1) adjusting for 2hPG, HbA1c, and FPG in the same model, and (2) comparing individuals showing isolated elevation of 2hPG, HbA1c, or FPG with those being "normal" for all the three measures. Major non-glycemic risk factors were adjusted for in the multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 2869 participants died, and 960 of the deaths were attributed to cardiovascular causes. When included in the model individually, elevated 2hPG, FPG, and HbA1c were all predictive of both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.32 to 1.55, all p values <0.05). After controlling the influence of the other two glycemic measures, elevated 2hPG was still statistically significantly associated with the outcomes (adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.04 to 1.33, depending on analytical approaches), whereas elevated FPG was not, and HbA1c was associated with cardiovascular mortality only when treated as a continuous variable and when 2hPG and FPG levels were in the normal range (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27 [1.04-1.55] for 1 % increase in HbA1c).

CONCLUSIONS

2hPG, FPG, and HbA1c were all predictive of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when used alone, but when combined only 2hPG retained its predictive value for both outcomes while HbA1c predicted cardiovascular mortality only when used as a continuous variable and when 2hPG and FPG were in the normal range.

Serum Medium-Chain Fatty Acids and the Risk of Incident Diabetes: Findings From the 4C Study

CONTEXT

Emerging studies have revealed associations between dietary medium-chain fatty acids (MCFAs) and glucose homeostasis. However, the relationship between serum MCFAs and the incidence of diabetes, and potential interactions with genetic predisposition, remains unclear in prospective cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to investigate associations and genetic susceptibility between serum MCFAs and diabetes risk.

METHODS

We investigated baseline serum MCFAs (n = 5) in a nested case-control study comprising incident diabetes cases (n = 1707) and matched normoglycemic control individuals (n = 1707) from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort Study. Associations between MCFAs and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were examined, both overall and stratified by diabetes genetic susceptibility. Genetic risk scores (GRS) were calculated based on 86 T2DM-associated genetic variants.

RESULTS

In the fully adjusted conditional logistic regression model, serum octanoic acid and nonanoic acid exhibited inverse dose-response relationships with diabetes risk, showing odds ratios (95% CI) of 0.90 (0.82-0.98) and 0.84 (0.74-0.95), respectively. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that inverse associations between MCFAs and incident diabetes were more pronounced among individuals with physical inactivity (Pinteraction = .042, .034, and .037, for octanoic, nonanoic and decanoic acid, respectively). Moreover, inverse associations of octanoic acid with diabetes risk were notably enhanced among individuals with high genetic risk compared to those with low genetic risk. Statistically significant interactions were observed between octanoic acid and GRS on T2DM risk (Pinteraction = .003).

CONCLUSION

These findings provide evidence supporting inverse associations between serum MCFAs and T2DM risk, and reveal potential interplay between genetic susceptibility and circulating octanoic acid in modulating diabetes risk.

Interaction between sex and one-hour post-load glucose on metabolic syndrome and its components among Chinese people at high risk of diabetes

BACKGROUND

Recently, International Diabetes Federation position statement has adopted one-hour post-load glucose (1hPG) ≥ 8.6 mmol/L for diagnosing intermediate hyperglycemia. We aimed to assess the association of 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components, as well as interaction between sex and 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L on MetS and its components in Chinese people at high risk of diabetes.

METHODS

The cross-sectional study was conducted in DaQing city of HeiLongJiang Province, China between August, 2023 and January, 2024. Eligible individuals with fasting glucose of 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and age of 25-55 years in health checkup data in the year of 2023 or with at least one risk factor of diabetes were invited to receive the oral glucose tolerance test and biochemical examinations. Individuals with self-reported presence of diabetes or usage of glucose-lowering medication were excluded. MetS was defined as presence of at least three of the five components according to the Chinese Diabetes Society criteria. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association of 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L with MetS and its components. Additive interaction was estimated using the relative excess risk due to interaction, attributable proportion due to interaction (AP), and synergy index.

RESULTS

A total of 2419 subjects comprising 1465 men (60.6%) with a mean age of 45.77 ± 6.20 years were included, and the prevalence of MetS was 46.8%, with 59.7% in men and 27.1% in women. 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L was associated with MetS (aOR = 4.40, 95% CI 3.26-6.01), elevated blood pressure (aOR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.13-1.89), hyperglycemia (aOR = 15.46, 95% CI 11.56-20.98), and reduced HDL-C (aOR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.07-2.15) in the overall population, whereas no significant association between 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L and elevated blood pressure in men (aOR = 1.36, 95% CI 0.97-1.91) or dyslipidemia in women (elevated TG: aOR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.47-1.39; reduced HDL-C: aOR = 1.08, 95% CI 0.49-2.37). Additive interaction effect between sex and 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L on MetS was observed, with 31% attributed to the interaction effect between men and 1hPG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L (AP = 0.31, 95% CI 0.06-0.49).

CONCLUSIONS

There was an additive interaction effect between sex and 1hPG on MetS among Chinese people at high risk of diabetes. 1hPG test and sex-specific strategies should be taken into consideration in cardiometabolic disorder identification and management.

Diabetes in China part 2: prevention, challenges, and progress

During the past 40 years, the prevalence of diabetes in China has increased from less than 1·0% in 1980 to 12·4% in 2018, an increase in line with the rapid growth of the nation's economy. To address such a burden, the Healthy China 2030 initiative and subsequent Action Plan, including a diabetes prevention and control campaign, were launched. A shift from a disease-centred approach to a health-centred approach and from treatment to prevention is the core of the Action Plan and diabetes management in China. In this Review, we discuss the challenges of diabetes prevention in China, including unhealthy lifestyle, increasing young-onset type 2 diabetes, and substantial diabetes care disparities. To address such challenges, countermeasures across different stages of diabetes prevention and targeted at different populations, are needed. Such countermeasures include primordial prevention of risk factors in the general population, primary prevention of diabetes onset in high-risk populations, and secondary prevention of cardiovascular complications for individuals with diabetes. We reflect on China's current progress, strategies, and achievements.

The effect of SGLT2 inhibition on prostate cancer: Mendelian randomization and observational analysis using electronic healthcare and cohort data

We evaluated the effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition on prostate cancer by evidence triangulation. Using Mendelian randomization, we found that genetically proxied SGLT2 inhibition reduced the risk of overall (odds ratio = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38 to 0.82; 79,148 prostate cancer cases and 61,106 controls), advanced, and early-onset prostate cancer. Using electronic healthcare data (nSGLT2i = 24,155; nDPP4i = 24,155), we found that the use of SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a 23% reduced risk of prostate cancer (hazard ratio = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.99) in men with diabetes. Using data from two prospective cohorts (n4C = 57,779; nUK_Biobank = 165,430), we found little evidence to support the association of HbA1c with prostate cancer, implying a non-glycemic effect of SGLT2 inhibition on prostate cancer. In summary, this study provides multiple layers of evidence to support the beneficial effect of SGLT2 inhibition on reducing prostate cancer risk. Future trials are warranted to investigate whether SGLT2 inhibitors can be recommended for prostate cancer prevention.

Association of social determinants, lifestyle, and metabolic factors with mortality in Chinese adults: A nationwide 10-year prospective cohort study

Nationwide estimates of the impact of common modifiable risk factors on mortality remain crucial. We aim to assess the influence of social determinants, lifestyle, and metabolic factors on mortality in 174,004 adults aged ≥40 years from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) Study. We reveal that 17 modifiable factors are independently associated with mortality, accounting for 64.8% of all-cause mortality, 77.4% of cardiovascular mortality, and 44.8% of cancer mortality. Low education emerges as the leading factor for both all-cause and cancer mortality, while hypertension is predominant for cardiovascular mortality. Moreover, low gross domestic product per capita and high ambient particulate matter with a diameter of <2.5 μm (PM2.5) air pollution account for 7.8% and 4.3% for all-cause mortality, respectively, using a different method. Gender-specific analyses reveal distinct patterns, with women's mortality primarily associated with social determinants and men exhibiting stronger associations with lifestyle factors. Targeted health interventions are essential to mitigate mortality risks effectively in China.

Association of circulating long-chain free fatty acids and incident diabetes risk among normoglycemic Chinese adults: a prospective nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Long-chain free fatty acids (FFAs) are associated with risk of incident diabetes. However, a comprehensive assessment of the associations in normoglycemic populations is lacking.

OBJECTIVES

Our study aimed to comprehensively investigate the prospective associations and patterns of FFA profiles with diabetes risk among normoglycemic Chinese adults.

METHODS

This is a prospective nested case-control study from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) study. We quantitatively measured 53 serum FFAs using a targeted metabolomics approach in 1707 incident diabetes subjects and 1707 propensity score-matched normoglycemic controls. Conditional logistic regression models were employed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty regression and quantile g-computation (qg-comp) analyses were implemented to estimate the association between multi-FFA exposures and incident diabetes.

RESULTS

The majority of odd-chain FFAs exhibited an inverse association with incident diabetes, wherein the ORs per SD increment of all 7 saturated fatty acids (SFAs), monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) 15:1, and polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) 25:2 were ranging from 0.79 to 0.88 (95% CIs ranging between 0.71 and 0.97). Even-chain FFAs comprised 99.3% of total FFAs and displayed heterogeneity with incident diabetes. SFAs with 18-26 carbon atoms are inversely linked to incident diabetes, with ORs ranging from 0.81 to 0.86 (95% CIs ranging between 0.73 and 0.94). MUFAs 26:1 (OR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.94), PUFAs 20:4 (OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.94), and 24:2 (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.97) demonstrated significant associations. In multi-FFA exposure model, 24 FFAs were significantly associated with incident diabetes, most of which were consistent with univariate results. The mixture OR was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.99; P = 0.04159). Differential correlation network analysis revealed pre-existing perturbations in intraclass and interclass FFA coregulation before diabetes onset.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the variations in diabetes risk associated with FFAs across chain length and unsaturation degree, highlighting the importance of recognizing FFA subtypes in the pathogenesis of diabetes.

Association between the AHA life's essential 8 and prediabetes/diabetes: a cross-sectional NHANES study

Background and aims

The American Heart Association (AHA) recently introduced the Life's Essential 8 (LE8) to improve cardiovascular health (CVH). However, the association between LE8 and the risk of prediabetes or diabetes is not yet fully understood. Consequently, this study aims to assess the association between CVH, as evaluated by LE8, and the risk of prediabetes and diabetes.

Methods and Results

This cross-sectional study encompassed 7,739 participants aged ≥20 years from the 2007-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). The CVH of participants was evaluated using the LE8, combining four health behaviors and three health factors. Glucose metabolic status categories included normal glucose metabolism, prediabetes including isolated impaired fasting glucose, isolated impaired glucose tolerance, both IFG and IGT, and diabetes. The associations between CVH and prediabetes and diabetes were analyzed using logistic regression, linear regression, restricted cubic splines, and subgroup analyses. Among 7,739 participants, 1,949 had iIFG, 1,165 were diagnosed with iIGT, 799 were IFG+IGT, and 537 were diagnosed with diabetes. After multivariable adjustments, CVH scores were inversely associated with prediabetes and diabetes, with the most robust inverse association observed between IFG+IGT and CVH across all prediabetes subgroups. Of all CVH components not directly in the causal pathway, body mass index (BMI) had the most robust associations with prediabetes and diabetes. Subgroup analyses indicated that the negative correlation between CVH and prediabetes was stronger among those with university or higher education.

Conclusion

CVH, as defined by LE8, showed a significant negative association with prediabetes and diabetes.

Association between estimated glucose disposal rate and atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients undergoing radiofrequency catheter ablation: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have shown a clear link between insulin resistance (IR) and an elevated risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), which serves as a marker for IR, and the risk of AF recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the potential association between the eGDR and the risk of AF recurrence following RFCA.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at Nanchang University Affiliated Second Hospital. The study enrolled 899 patients with AF who underwent RFCA between January 2015 and January 2022. The formula used to calculate the eGDR was as follows: 19.02 - (0.22 * body mass index) - (3.26 * hypertension) - (0.61 * HbA1c). Cox proportional hazard regression models and exposure-effect curves were used to explore the correlation between the baseline eGDR and AF recurrence. The ability of the eGDR to predict AF recurrence was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The study observed a median follow-up period of 11.63 months, during which 296 patients experienced AF recurrence. K‒M analyses revealed that the cumulative incidence AF recurrence rate was significantly greater in the group with the lowest eGDR (log-rank p < 0.01). Participants with an eGDR ≥ 8 mg/kg/min had a lower risk of AF recurrence than those with an eGDR < 4 mg/kg/min, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.28 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18, 0.42]. Additionally, restricted cubic spline analyses demonstrated a linear association between the eGDR and AF recurrence (p nonlinear = 0.70). The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting AF recurrence using the eGDR was 0.75.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that a decrease in the eGDR is associated with a greater AF recurrence risk after RFCA. Hence, the eGDR could be used as a novel biomarker for assessing AF recurrence risk.

Reframing prediabetes: A call for better risk stratification and intervention

Prediabetes is an intermediate state of glucose homeostasis whereby plasma glucose concentrations are above normal but below the threshold of diagnosis for diabetes. Over the last several decades, criteria for prediabetes have changed as the cut points for normal glucose concentration and diagnosis of diabetes have shifted. Global consensus does not exist for prediabetes criteria; as a result, the clinical course and risk for type 2 diabetes vary. At present, we can identify individuals with prediabetes based on three glycemic tests (hemoglobin A1c, fasting plasma glucose, and 2-h plasma glucose during an oral glucose tolerance test). The majority of individuals diagnosed with prediabetes meet only one of these criteria. Meeting one, two, or all glycemic criteria changes risk for type 2 diabetes, but this information is not widely known and does not currently guide intervention strategies for individuals with prediabetes. This review summarizes current epidemiology, prognosis, and intervention strategies for individuals diagnosed with prediabetes and suggests a call for more precise risk stratification of individuals with prediabetes as elevated (one prediabetes criterion), high risk (two prediabetes criteria), and very high risk (three prediabetes criteria). In addition, the roles of oral glucose tolerance testing and continuous glucose monitoring in the diagnostic criteria for prediabetes need reassessment. Finally, we must reframe our goals for prediabetes and prioritize intensive interventions for those at high and very high risk for type 2 diabetes.

Body size, insulin sensitivity, metabolic health and risk of cardiovascular disease in Chinese adults: Insights from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) study

AIMS

To assess the excess risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with different criteria for metabolic health, and the interplay of body size, insulin sensitivity and metabolic health with CVD risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective study involving 115 638 participants from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) Study. Metabolic health was defined using three different definitions: (1) insulin sensitivity defined by homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance index; (2) absence of metabolic syndrome according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria; and (3) simultaneous absence of metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia). The primary endpoint was a composite of incident CVD events comprising the first occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During a mean 3.61-year follow-up period, obese individuals with insulin sensitivity (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37-2.08), or without metabolic syndrome (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.13-1.89) still exhibited increased CVD risks, when compared to their normal-weight counterparts. Otherwise, those with obesity but simultaneous absence of metabolic abnormalities demonstrated similar CVD risk compared to normal-weight individuals (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.53-1.59). CVD risk increased with the number of abnormalities across body mass index categories, regardless of insulin sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasizes the need for refined definitions of metabolic health and advocates for meticulous screening for metabolic abnormalities to reduce cardiovascular risks, even in individuals with normal weight and insulin sensitivity.

Association of longitudinal trajectories of fasting plasma glucose with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among a Chinese older population: a retrospective cohort study

The association between fasting plasma glucose (FPG), an important indicator of overall glycemic status, and the risk of cardiovascular mortality has been well investigated. The longitudinal study can repeatedly collect measured results for the variables to be studied and then consider the potential effects of intraindividual changes in measurement. This study aimed to identify long-term FPG trajectories and investigate the association between trajectory groups and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. A latent class growth mixture modeling (LCGMM) was used to identify FPG trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations between FPG trajectories and the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A U-shaped relationship between FPG and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed in the restricted cubic spline regression models. Two FPG longitudinal trajectories of low-level (mean FPG = 5.12mmol/L) and high-level (mean FPG = 6.74mmol/L) were identified by LCGMM. After being adjusted for potential confounders, compared with the low-level category, the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.23(1.16-1.30) and 1.25(1.16-1.35), respectively, for the high-level group. Long-term FPG trajectories are significantly associated with and potentially impact the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Ultra rapid lispro improves postprandial glucose control versus lispro in combination with basal insulin: a study based on CGM in type 2 diabetes in China

Aim

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of URLi (ultra rapid lispro insulin) compared to insulin lispro as bolus insulin with basal insulin using CGM in the individuals with type 2 diabetes(T2D) in China.

Methods

This was a double-blind, randomized, parallel, prospective, phase 3 study. Subjects with uncontrolled T2D were recruited and randomized 1:2 into the insulin lispro and URLi groups. Subjects received a consistent basal insulin regimen during the study and self-administered insulin lispro or URLi before each meal throughout the treatment period. Subjects underwent a 3-day continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) at the baseline and endpoint respectively, and then CGM data were analyzed. The primary endpoint was to compare the difference in postprandial glucose (PPG) control using CGM between the two groups.

Results

A total of 57 subjects with T2D completed the study. Our CGM data showed that postprandial glucose excursions after breakfast (BPPGE) in the URLi group was lower than that in the insulin lispro group (1.59 ± 1.57 mmol/L vs 2.51 ± 1.73 mmol/L, p = 0.046). 1-hour PPG was observed to decrease more in the URLi group than that in the insulin lispro group (-1.37 ± 3.28 mmol/L vs 0.24 ± 2.58 mmol/L, p = 0.047). 2-hour PPG was observed to decrease more in the URLi group than that in the insulin lispro group (-1.12 ± 4.00 mmol/L vs 1.22 ± 2.90 mmol/L, p = 0.021). The mean HbA1c level decreased by 1.1% in the URLi group and 0.99% in the insulin lispro group, with no treatment difference (p = 0.642). In the CGM profile, TBR was not significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.743). The weight gain also did not differ between the two groups (p = 0.303).

Conclusion

URLi can control breakfast PPG better than insulin lispro in adults with T2D in China, while it is non-inferior in improving HbA1c. The incidence of hypoglycemic and weight gain were similar between the two groups.

Positive Association of Pulse Pressure with Presence of Albuminuria in Chinese Adults with Prediabetes: A Community-Based Study

Purpose: There has been limited evidence for the association between pulse pressure (PP) and proteinuria in prediabetes. The aim of our study was to explore the association between PP and albuminuria in community-dwelling Chinese adults with prediabetes. Materials and Methods: PP and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were measured in 2012 prediabetic patients and 3596 control subjects with normal glucose tolerance. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the possible association of PP with the risk of presence of albuminuria. Results: PP was positively associated with the presence of albuminuria, and subjects in the higher PP quartiles had higher urinary ACR and presence of albuminuria as compared with those in the lowest quartile in both prediabetes and control groups (all P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the highest PP quartile was positively associated with increased risk of presence of albuminuria in all prediabetic subjects [odds ratio (OR): 2.289, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.364-3.842, P < 0.01) and prediabetic subjects without anti-hypertensive drugs (OR: 1.932, 95% CI 1.116-3.343, P < 0.01), whereas higher PP quartile has nothing to do with the risk of presence of albuminuria in control subjects with and without anti-hypertensive drugs after adjustment for potential confounders (all P > 0.01). Consistently, stratified analysis showed that in the prediabetes group, the risks of presence of albuminuria progressively elevated with increasing PP quartiles in men, those aged 60 years or older, and with overweight/obesity, normal high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and appropriate low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all P for trend <0.05). Conclusion: Higher PP is independently related to increased risk of presence of albuminuria in community-dwelling Chinese adults with prediabetes.

Sucralose regulates postprandial blood glucose in mice through intestinal sweet taste receptors Tas1r2/Tas1r3

BACKGROUND

Non-nutritive sweeteners (such as sucralose) bind to sweet receptors Tas1r2/Tas1r3 on intestinal endocrine L cells after diets to upregulate blood glucose. However, the mechanism by which sucralose regulates postprandial blood glucose (PBG) has not been clarified to date. We hypothesized that the gut sweet taste receptor was one of the targets for sucralose to regulate PBG. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of sucralose on PBG based on the gut sweet taste receptor signaling pathway and to explore the mechanism. Therefore, we examined PBG, genes, and proteins associated with the gut sweet receptor pathway in sucralose-exposed mice.

RESULTS

The results showed that after 12 weeks of sucralose exposure the PBG of mice increased significantly, and the expression of intestinal sweet taste receptors increased correspondingly. Within the concentration range of this experiment, a significant increase of PBG was observed in mice fed on sucralose with a concentration equal to or higher than 0.33 g L-1 .

CONCLUSION

Long-term consumption of sucralose may increase body weight and the risk of elevated PBG, resulting in overexpression of sweetness receptors and glucose transporters. The mechanism of these effects might be the result of non-nutritive sweeteners binding to sweetness receptors Tas1r2/Tas1r3 in gut endocrine cells and upregulating Slc5a1 and Slc2a2. But we cannot rule out that the rise in PBG is the result of a combination of sweet receptors and gut microbes. Therefore, the effect of gut microbes on PBG needs to be studied further. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Ultra-rapid lispro improved postprandial glucose control compared to insulin lispro in predominantly Chinese patients with type 1 diabetes: A prospective, randomized, double-blind phase 3 study

AIMS

To investigate the efficacy and safety of ultra-rapid lispro (URLi) versus insulin lispro in predominantly Chinese patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) in a prospective, randomized, double-blind, treat-to-target, phase 3 study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Following a lead-in period, during which insulin glargine U-100 or insulin degludec U-100 was optimized, patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to URLi (n = 176) or insulin lispro (n = 178). The primary objective was to test the noninferiority of URLi to insulin lispro in glycaemic control (noninferiority margin = 0.4% for glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] change from baseline to week 26), with testing for the superiority of URLi to insulin lispro with regard to 1- and 2-hour postprandial glucose (PPG) excursions during a mixed-meal tolerance test and HbA1c change at week 26 as the multiplicity-adjusted objectives.

RESULTS

From baseline to week 26, HbA1c decreased by 0.21% and 0.28% with URLi and insulin lispro, respectively, with a least squares mean treatment difference of 0.07% (95% confidence interval -0.11 to 0.24; P = 0.467). URLi demonstrated smaller 1- and 2-hour PPG excursions at week 26 with least squares mean treatment differences of -1.0 mmol/L (-17.8 mg/dL) and -1.4 mmol/L (-25.5 mg/dL), respectively (p < 0.005 for both) versus insulin lispro. The safety profiles of URLi and insulin lispro were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, URLi administered in a basal-bolus regimen demonstrated superiority to insulin lispro in controlling PPG excursions, with noninferiority of HbA1c control in predominantly Chinese patients with T1D.

Live Births in Women over 40 Years of Age Correlate with Obesity Rates

AIMS

This cross-sectional study aimed to analyze the relationship between live birth and the prevalence of obesity in Chinese women over 40 years of age.

METHODS

From April to November 2011, the Endocrinology Branch of the Chinese Medical Association conducted the REACTION project, a national, multicenter, cross-sectional study of Chinese adults aged 40 years and older. Demographic and medical data were collected through validated questionnaires and equipment. Anthropometric indicators, blood pressure, and biochemical data were measured by professional medical personnel. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic analysis. Multivariate regression models were used to analyze obesity-related risk factors.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity among women increased gradually from 3.8% to 6.0% with an increasing number of live births. Women with two live births had the highest prevalence of overweight at 34.3%. Overall, the obesity and overweight rates were slightly higher in premenopausal women than in postmenopausal women. Univariate regression analysis showed that the risk of obesity in women increased with an increasing number of live births. In addition, multivariate regression analysis showed that the risk of obesity increased with an increasing number of live births in women with systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 121 mmHg or current smoking (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The risk of obesity increases with the number of live births in Chinese women over 40 years of age with SBP < 121 mmHg or current smoking. Our findings may facilitate the development of interventions to prevent obesity in this population.

Early adulthood weight change, midlife "Life's essential 8" health status and risk of cardiometabolic diseases: a chinese nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between weight change during early adulthood and cardiometabolic diseases remains uncertain in Chinese population. Whether the association varies with comprehensive cardiovascular health (CVH) in midlife assessed by "Life's Essential 8" has not been characterized. We aim to examine the associations of early adulthood weight change and midlife "Life's Essential 8" CVH status with cardiometabolic outcomes in a Chinese cohort.

METHODS

The study participants were from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4 C) Study. This analysis included 72,610 middle-aged and older participants followed for a median of 3.6 years. At baseline, the participants recalled body weight at age 20 and 40 years, and we calculated change in weight and BMI between 20 and 40 years of age. Health behaviors information in "Life's Essential 8" was collected by questionnaire, and health factors were measured in the study center. During follow-up, we ascertained incident cardiovascular events based on medical records, and diagnosed incident diabetes according to the American Diabetes Association 2010 criteria.

RESULTS

72,610 study participants were included with a mean age of 56.0 ± 8.8 years and 29% of them were males. Weight gain of more than 10 kg between 20 and 40 years of age was associated with 22% increased risk of incident cardiovascular events (HR: 1.22; 95%CI: 1.04-1.43) and 38% increased risk of diabetes (HR: 1.38; 95%CI: 1.25-1.53) compared to stable weight. Besides, the association of weight gain more than 10 kg in early adulthood with cardiometabolic risk was even stronger in those with low CVH score in midlife (HR: 2.44; 95%CI: 2.01-2.97 for incident cardiovascular events; HR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.90-2.55 for incident diabetes) or with few ideal cardiovascular health metrics in midlife.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that weight gain in early adulthood was associated with significantly increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. And the association could be stronger in those with poor CVH profiles in midlife. These findings confirmed the significance of weight management during early adulthood and suggested that individuals who experienced substantial weight gain in early life should be encouraged to maintain good CVH status in Chinese population.

A Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of CKD Based on Cardiometabolic Risk Factors

Background

In China, the spectrum of causes for CKD has been changing in recent years, and the proportion of CKD caused by cardiometabolic diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension continues to increase. Thus, predicting CKD based on cardiometabolic risk factors can to a large extent help identify those at increased risk and facilitate the prevention of CKD. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting CKD risk based on cardiometabolic risk factors.

Methods

We developed a nomogram for predicting CKD risk by using a subcohort population of the 4C study, which was located in central China. The prediction model was designed by using a logistic regression model, and a backwards procedure based on the Akaike information criterion was applied for variable selection. The performance of the model was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), and Hosmer‒Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The bootstrapping method was applied for internal validation.

Results

During the 3-years follow-up, 167 cases of CKD developed. By using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models, the following factors were identified as predictors in the nomogram: age, sex, HbA1c, baseline eGFR, low HDL-C levels, high TC levels and SBP. The bootstrap-corrected C-index for the model was 0.84, which indicated good discrimination ability. The Hosmer‒Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests yielded chi-square of 13.61 (P=0.192), and the calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities, which indicated satisfactory calibration ability.

Conclusion

We developed a convenient and practicable nomogram for the 3‑year risk of incident CKD among a population in central China, which may help to identify high-risk individuals for CKD and contribute to the prevention of CKD.

The Presence of Diabetes Mellitus or Pre-diabetes Mellitus Increases Mortality from Heart Disease in a Taiwanese Population: A 10-year Follow-Up Study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated hyperglycemia-associated mortality in the Taiwanese population by conducting a 10-year retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

From 2007 to 2017, all participants, regardless of their age or underlying diseases, were identified at a Health Screening Center in Taiwan. Overall, 114,534 participants were included in the analysis. They were classified into three subgroups according to glycemia and smoking status by combining survival for data analysis.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up time, age, and body mass index (BMI) were 8.14 ± 2.22 years, 40.95 ± 12.14 years, and 23.24 ± 3.65 kg/m², respectively. The cumulative death rate increased from 0.9% in the normal fasting blood glucose(FBG) subgroup to approximately 6% in the diabetes FBG subgroup. After adjusting for age, gender, BMI, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, waist circumference(WC), and smoking status, the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause, cancer, and heart disease mortality in the diabetes mellitus(DM) subgroup was 1.560, 1.381, and 1.828, respectively.HR was 0.989 in all-cause, 0.940 in cancer, and 1.326 in heart disease in the pre-DM subgroup.

CONCLUSION

Being tested for pre-DM is related to a higher risk of death from heart disease in the Taiwanese population at baseline. Therefore, cardiovascular risk must be actively measured among diabetes patients every visit.

The role of TyG index in predicting the incidence of diabetes in Chinese elderly men: a 20-year retrospective study

Background

The triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) has been regarded as a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance and an independent predictor of diabetes. However, few studies have reported the association between the TyG index and diabetes in the elderly population. Accordingly, this study aimed to investigate the association between the TyG index and diabetes progression in elderly Chinese.

Methods

Baseline medical history, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glucose levels during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) after 1-hour (1h-PG) and 2-hour (2h-PG), and triglyceride (TG) were obtained from a cohort of 862 elderly (aged ≥ 60 years) Chinese in the Beijing urban area between 1998 and 1999. A follow-up visit was conducted between 1998 and 2019 to assess incident diabetes. TyG index was calculated by the following formula ln[TG (mg/dL) × FPG (mg(dL)/2]. The predictive values of TyG index, lipids, and glucose levels during OGTT were assessed alone and also in a clinical prediction model comprising traditional risk factors using concordance index (C-index). Areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) and 95% CIs were calculated.

Results

After 20 years of follow-up, there were 544 cases of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (63.1% of incidence). The multivariable HRs (95% CI) for TyG index, FPG, 1h-PG and 2h-PG, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-c), and TG were 1.525 (1.290-1.804), 1.350 (1.181-1.544), 1.337 (1.282-1.395), 1.401 (1.327-1.480), 0.505 (0.375-0.681), and 1.120 (1.053-1.192), respectively. The corresponding C-index were 0.623, 0.617, 0.704, 0.694, 0.631, and 0.610, respectively. The AUC (95% CI) for the TyG index, FPG, 1h-PG, 2h-PG, HDL-c, and TG were 0.608 (0.569-0.647), 0.587 (0.548-0.625), 0.766 (0.734-0.797), 0.713 (0.679-0.747), 0.397 (0.358-0.435), and 0.588 (0.549-0.628). The AUC of the TyG index was higher than that of TG but did not differ with FPG and HDL-c. In addition, the AUCs of 1h-PG and 2h-PG were higher than that of the TyG index.

Conclusions

Elevated TyG index is independently correlated with an increased risk of incident diabetes in the elderly male population, but it is not superior to OGTT 1h-PG and 2h-PG in predicting the risk of diabetes.

Association of Spousal Diabetes Status and Ideal Cardiovascular Health Metrics With Risk of Incident Diabetes Among Chinese Adults

Importance

Spouses share common socioeconomic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, and multiple studies have found that spousal diabetes status was associated with diabetes prevalence. But the association of spousal diabetes status and ideal cardiovascular health metrics (ICVHMs) assessed by the American Heart Association's Life's Essential 8 measures with incident diabetes has not been comprehensively characterized, especially in large-scale cohort studies.

Objective

To explore the association of spousal diabetes status and cardiovascular health metrics with risk of incident diabetes in Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included individuals in the China Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Cohort without diabetes who underwent baseline and follow-up glucose measurements and had spouses with baseline glucose measurements. The data were collected in January 2011 to December 2012 and March 2014 to December 2016. The spousal study had a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.6 (0.9) years (median [IQR], 3.2 [2.9-4.5] years). Statistical analysis was performed from July to November 2022.

Exposure

Spousal diabetes status was diagnosed according to the 2010 American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. All participants provided detailed clinical, sociodemographic, and lifestyle information included in cardiovascular health metrics.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident diabetes, diagnosed according to 2010 ADA criteria.

Results

Overall, 34 821 individuals were included, with a mean (SD) age of 56.4 (8.3) years and 16 699 (48.0%) male participants. Spousal diabetes diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% CI, 1.03-1.30). Furthermore, participants whose spouses had uncontrolled glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) had a higher risk of diabetes (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) but the risk of diabetes in participants whose spouses had controlled HbA1c did not increase significantly (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.92-1.30). Moreover, this association varied with composite cardiovascular health status. Diabetes risk in individuals who had poor cardiovascular health status (<4 ICVHMs) was associated with spousal diabetes status (3 ICVHMs: HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.15-1.97), while diabetes risk in individuals who had intermediate to ideal cardiovascular health status (≥4 ICVHMs) was not associated with it (4 ICVHMs: HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.69-1.50).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, spousal diabetes diagnosis with uncontrolled HbA1c level was associated with increased risk of incident diabetes, but strict management of spousal HbA1c level and improving ICVHM profiles may attenuate the association of spousal diabetes status with diabetes risk. These findings suggest the potential benefit of couple-based lifestyle or pharmaceutical interventions for diabetes.

Data-driven subgroups of prediabetes and the associations with outcomes in Chinese adults

Prediabetes and its pathophysiology remain important issues. We aimed to examine the cluster characteristics of prediabetes and explore their associations with developing diabetes and its complications based on 12 variables representing body fat, glycemic measures, pancreatic β cell function, insulin resistance, blood lipids, and liver enzymes. A total of 55,777 individuals with prediabetes from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) were classified at baseline into six clusters. During a median of 3.1 years of follow-up, significant differences in the risks of diabetes and its complications between clusters were observed. The odds ratios of diabetes stepwisely increase from cluster 1 to cluster 6. Clusters 1, 4, and 6 have increased chronic kidney diseases risks, while the prediabetes in cluster 4, characterized by obesity and insulin resistance, confers higher risks of cardiovascular diseases compared with others. This subcategorization has potential value in developing more precise strategies for targeted prediabetes prevention and treatment.

Development and validation of a nomogram to estimate future risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults with metabolic syndrome: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate the 4-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among adults with metabolic syndrome.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of a large multicenter cohort with broad validation.

SETTINGS

The derivation cohort was from 32 sites in China and the geographic validation cohort was from Henan population-based cohort study.

RESULTS

568 (17.63) and 53 (18.67%) participants diagnosed diabetes during 4-year follow-up in the developing and validation cohort, separately. Age, gender, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and alanine aminotransferase were included in the final model. The area under curve for the training and external validation cohort was 0.824 (95% CI, 0.759-0.889) and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.594-0.871), respectively. Both the internal and external validation have good calibration plot. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of diabetes during 4-year follow-up, and on online calculator is also available for a more convenient usage ( https://lucky0708.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ).

CONCLUSION

We developed a simple diagnostic model to predict 4-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus among adults with metabolic syndrome, which is also available as web-based tools ( https://lucky0708.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/ ).

Development and validation of risk prediction models for new-onset type 2 diabetes in adults with impaired fasting glucose

AIMS

To develop and validate sex-specific risk prediction models based on easily obtainable clinical data for predicting 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and generate practical tools for public use.

METHODS

The data used for model training and internal validation came from a large prospective cohort (N = 18,384). Two independent cohorts were used for external validation. A two-step approach was applied to screen variables. Coefficient-based models were constructed by multivariate Cox regression analyses, and score-based models were subsequently generated. The predictive power was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 7.55 years, 5697 new-onset T2D cases were identified. Predictor variables included age, body mass index, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, and fatty liver. The proposed models outperformed five existing models. In internal validation, the AUCs of the coefficient-based models were 0.741 (95% CI 0.723-0.760) for men and 0.762 (95% CI 0.720-0.802) for women. External validation yielded comparable prediction performance. We finally constructed a risk scoring system and a web calculator.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction models and derived tools had well-validated performance to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in IFG adults.

Risk of cardiovascular disease, death, and renal progression in diabetes according to albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate

AIM

We aimed to examine risks of major cardiovascular events (MACEs), renal outcomes, and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with different diabetic kidney disease (DKD) subtypes.

METHODS

A total of 36,509 participants with T2DM recruited from 20 community sites across mainland China were followed up during 2011-2016. DKD subtypes were categorized based on albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, UACR ≥ 30 mg/g) and reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m²) as Alb^-/eGFR^-, Alb⁺/eGFR^-, Alb^-/eGFR⁺, and Alb⁺/eGFR⁺. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of developing clinical outcomes in DKD subtypes.

RESULTS

More than half (53.5%) of participants with diabetes and reduced eGFR had normal UACR levels (Alb^-/eGFR⁺), termed as non-albuminuria DKD. These patients had a modest increase in the risks of MACEs (hazard ratio, HR 1.42 [95% CI 1.08;1.88]) and mortality (HR 1.42 [1.04;1.92]) compared with patients without DKD, whereas CKD progression was not significantly increased (HR 0.97 [0.60;1.57]). Participants with albuminuria (Alb⁺/eGFR^- or Alb⁺/eGFR⁺) had higher risks of clinical outcomes. Subgroup analysis revealed that the associations between non-albuminuria DKD and risks of MACEs and mortality were more evident in those aged <65 years.

CONCLUSION

Non-albuminuria DKD accounts for more than half of DKD cases with low eGFR in Chinese diabetes patients. Diabetes patients with albuminuria are at higher risks of developing clinical outcomes and warrant early intervention, as well as patients with non-albuminuria DKD with age < 65 years.

Islet function changes of post-glucose-challenge relate closely to 15 years mortality of elderly men with a history of hyperglycemia

Aims

We aimed to investigate the relationship between islet function changes during a glucose challenge and 15-year mortality in elderly men.

Methods

Elderly men who did the oral glucose tolerance test in 2005 owing to an abnormal glucose history without diabetes were included. Changes in insulin resistance and secretion were evaluated using the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) of fast, post-load, and ratios. Comparisons between the dead and the survival groups were analyzed using the Student's t-test (continuous variables) or χ2 test (Categorical variables). Single-factor logistic regression was used to identify the possible affecting factors. Multifactorial logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors in total population and in the subgroups. ROC curve was used to assess the predictive ability of risk factor and to determine the cut-off value.

Results

Of the 220 elderly men, 67 died according to 15-year retrospection. Age (OR = 1.243, P = 0.000), diastolic pressure (OR = 0.958, P = 0.027), and HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) (OR = 1.040, P = 0.010) were independent risk factors for 15-year mortality. Subgroup analysis showed that HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) was an obvious risk factor, especially for normal glucose tolerance (OR = 1.060, P = 0.030), age 60-70 years (OR = 1.068, P = 0.005), and hypertension (OR = 1.048, P = 0.013); HOMA-β (2 h/0 h) showed some protective effects in the impaired glucose regulation subgroup (OR = 0.779, P = 0.057). HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) cut-off value was 15.

Conclusions

HOMA-IR (2 h/0 h) higher than 15 was an independent risk factor for 15-year mortality in elderly men with hyperglycemia history.

Blood Pressure Levels, Cardiovascular Events, and Renal Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease Without Antihypertensive Therapy: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure (BP) is highly prevalent in patients with chronic kidney disease. However, the thresholds to initiate BP-lowering treatment in this population are unclear. We aimed to examine the associations between BP levels and clinical outcomes and provide evidence on potential thresholds to initiate BP-lowering therapy in people with chronic kidney disease.

METHODS

This nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study included 12 523 chronic kidney disease participants without antihypertensive therapy in mainland China. Participants were followed up during 2011 to 2016 for cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalized or treated heart failure, and cardiovascular death) and renal events (≥20% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, end-stage kidney disease, and renal death).

RESULTS

Overall, 652 cardiovascular events and 1268 renal events occurred during 43 970 person-years of follow-up. We observed a positive and linear relationship between systolic BP and risks of cardiovascular and renal events down to 90 mm Hg, as well as between diastolic BP and risks of renal events down to 50 mm Hg. A J-shaped trend was noted between diastolic BP and risks of cardiovascular events, but a linear relationship was revealed in participants <60 years (P for interaction <0.001). A significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular and renal outcomes was observed at systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg (versus 90-119 mm Hg) and at diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg (versus 50-69 mm Hg).

CONCLUSIONS

In people with chronic kidney disease, a higher systolic BP/diastolic BP level (≥130/90 mm Hg) is significantly associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular and renal events, indicating potential thresholds to initiate BP-lowering treatment.

Sex differences in prognostic role of fasting glucose, Oral glucose tolerance, and HbA1c in diabetic cardiovascular disease

Highlights: Fasting glucose‐defined prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes based on the American Diabetes Association criteria were associated with a greater risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and composite atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in women. In contrast, oral glucose tolerance‐defined prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes were associated with a greater risk of all cardiovascular outcomes in men. Intermediate A1c was associated with a more pronounced effect on the risk of coronary heart disease and stroke in women, whereas the above diagnostic level of A1c was associated with a higher magnitude of coronary heart risk in undiagnosed men but a higher magnitude of stroke risk in undiagnosed women.

Development and application of a novel model to predict the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among lean pre-diabetics with normal blood lipid levels

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been associated with type 2 diabetes, but its relationship with pre-diabetes is still unknown. This study aims to determine whether pre-diabetes is associated with NAFLD, followed by establishing a NAFLD predictive nomogram for lean Chinese pre-diabetics with normal blood lipids.

METHODS

Datasets from 3 previous studies, 1 (2774 pre-diabetics with normal blood lipids for training, 925 for validation), 2 (546 for longitudinal internal validation, post-5-year follow-up), and 3 (501 from another institution for external validation), were used. Kaplan-Meier determined cumulative NAFLD hazard, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis uncovered its risk factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis constructed the nomogram, followed by validation with receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

NAFLD incidence increased with diabetes progression, and pre-diabetics had higher cumulative risk versus non-diabetics, even for lean individuals with normal blood lipids. Six risk factors were identified: body mass index, total cholesterol, alanine aminotransferase:aspartate aminotransferase, triglyceride:high density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose and γ-glutamyl-transferase. The nomogram yielded areas under the curve of 0.808, 0.785, 0.796 and 0.832, for respectively, training, validation, longitudinal internal validation, and external validation, which, along with calibration curve values of p = 0.794, 0.875, 0.854 and 0.810 for those 4 datasets and decision curve analyses, validated its clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

Lean pre-diabetic Chinese with normal blood lipids have higher NAFLD risk versus non-diabetics. The nomogram is able to predict NAFLD among such individuals, with high discrimination, enabling its use for early detection and intervention.

Criteria for prediabetes and posttransplant diabetes mellitus after kidney transplantation: A 2-year diagnostic accuracy study of participants from a randomized controlled trial

Posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) and prediabetes (impaired glucose tolerance [IGT] and impaired fasting glucose [IFG]) are associated with cardiovascular events. We assessed the diagnostic performance of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c as alternatives to oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) using sensitivity and specificity in 263 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) from a clinical trial. Between visits at 6, 12, and 24 months after transplantation, 28%-31% of patients switched glycemic category (normal glucose tolerance [NGT], IGT/IFG, PTDM). Correlations of FPG and HbA1c against 2hPG were lower at 6 months (r = 0.59 [FPG against 2hPG]; r = 0.45 [HbA1c against 2hPG]) vs. 24 months (r = 0.73 [FPG against 2hPG]; r = 0.74 [HbA1c against 2hPG]). Up to 69% of 2hPG-defined PTDM cases were missed by conventional HbA1c and FPG thresholds. For prediabetes, concordance of FPG and HbA1c with 2hPG ranged from 6%-9%. In conclusion, in our well-defined randomized trial cohort, one-third of KTRs switched glycemic category over 2 years and although the correlations of FPG and HbA1c with 2hPG improved with time, their diagnostic concordance was poor for PTDM and, especially, prediabetes. Considering posttransplant metabolic instability, FPG's and HbA1c 's diagnostic performance, the OGTT remains indispensable to diagnose PTDM and prediabetes after kidney transplantation.

Efficacy and safety of dorzagliatin for type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of dorzagliatin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by using meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA).

Method

Search for clinical trials of dorzagliatin for T2DM in eight databases, with a time limit of build to July 2022. The included studies that met the requirements were carried out for meta-analysis and TSA.

Results

In terms of efficacy endpoints, meta-analysis showed that dorzagliatin decreased glycated hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c) [mean difference (MD) -0.65%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.76 ~ -0.54, P < 0.00001], fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (MD -9.22 mg/dL, 95% CI -9.99 ~ -8.44, P < 0.00001), 2 h postprandial glucose (2h-PPG) (MD -48.70 mg/dL, 95% CI -55.45 ~ -41.96, P < 0.00001), homeostasis model assessment 2 of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) (MD -0.07, 95% CI -0.14 ~ -0.01, P = 0.03) and increased homeostasis model assessment 2 of ß-cells function (HOMA2-β) (MD 2.69, 95% CI 1.06 ~ 4.31, P = 0.001) compared with placebo. And TSA revealed that the benefits observed for the current information set were conclusive, except for HOMA2-IR. In comparison with placebo, dorzagliatin increased triglyceride(TG) (MD 0.43 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.30 ~ 0.56, P < 0.00001), total cholesterol (TC) (MD 0.13 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.05 ~ 0.21, P = 0.001), body weight (MD 0.38 kg, 95% CI 0.12-0.63, P = 0.004) and body mass index (BMI) (MD 0.14 kg/m², 95% CI 0.05-0.24, P = 0.003), while low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were comparable. And TSA demonstrated that TG, TC, body weight, and BMI were conclusive. In terms of safety endpoints, dorzagliatin increased total adverse events (AEs) [risk ratio (RR) 1.56, 95% CI 1.06 ~ 2.30, P = 0.03], while serious AEs, hyperlipidemia, and hypoglycaemia were all comparable. And TSA indicated that the results need to be confirmed by additional studies. Harbord regression showed no publication bias.

Conclusion

Dorzagliatin was effective in lowering glycemia, reducing insulin resistance and improving islet ß-cells function without affecting blood pressure, LDL-C, and HDL-C. Although dorzagliatin caused a mild increase in TG and TC, it did not increase the incidence of hyperlipidemia, and the small increases in body weight and BMI were not clinically significant enough. In terms of safety, the total AEs caused by dorzagliatin may be a cumulative effect of single AEs, with no drug-related adverse event being reported at a higher incidence than placebo alone. Dorzagliatin's serious AEs, hyperlipidemia, and hypoglycemia are comparable to that of placebo, and dorzagliatin has a good safety profile.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=371802 identifier: CRD42022371802.

Ophthalmic artery changes in type 2 diabetes with and without acute coronary syndrome

Background

Ocular blood flow provides a new perspective for studying the effects of diabetes and ischemic heart disease on systemic blood flow, pathological mechanisms, and prognosis. Previous studies have analyzed the hemodynamic changes of the ophthalmic artery (OA) in patients with diabetes and ischemic heart disease, but the results remain controversial due to limited observation methods. We aimed to explore the morphological and hemodynamic features in the OA in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with and without acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Methods

In total, 134 participants, including 30 control participants, 34 with ACS only, 34 with T2D only, and 36 with both ACS and T2D, undergoing computed tomography angiography were enrolled. Three-dimensional OA models were reconstructed, and morphological parameters of the OA were measured. In addition, numerical simulations using computational fluid dynamics were used to acquire hemodynamic parameters of the OA.

Results

In this study, 134 OA models were reconstructed. Morphological measurements revealed a smaller initial OA diameter in the T2D group than in the other two ACS groups. A hemodynamic simulation showed a significantly lower OA blood velocity in patients with ACS and T2D than that in controls (P < 0.001). The mass flow ratios in all disease groups were lower than those in the control group (P < 0.001, P = 0.020, and P < 0.001, respectively). The ACS and T2D groups had higher OA pressure levels than those of the control group (P = 0.013). The OA blood velocity and mass flow ratio were correlated with several clinical parameters.

Conclusions

This study revealed morphological and hemodynamic differences in the OA between patients with T2D with and without ACS. Furthermore, the hemodynamic characteristics of the OA correlated with clinical prognostic biomarkers, suggesting the potential predictive ability of the OA.

Postprandial glucose is correlated with an increasing risk of liver fibrosis in Chinese patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

AIM

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is closely related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is an important risk factor for the progression of liver fibrosis, but the role of 2-h postprandial blood glucose (PPG) as a biomarker in this process remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the relationship between PPG and liver fibrosis in Chinese NAFLD populations with or without T2DM.

METHODS

This study included three independent NAFLD populations: 1) 618 inpatients with T2DM or pre-diabetes, 2) 255 patients with T2DM or pre-diabetes who underwent liver biopsy, and 3) a prospective community-based cohort without diabetes who completed a median of 4.22 years follow-up. The degree of liver fibrosis was assessed by liver fibrosis stage in subjects with a liver biopsy, and by NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in subjects without liver biopsy.

RESULTS

In the first population, PPG {OR 0.02, [95% CI (0.01-0.03)], P< 0.001} was positively correlated with NFS. In the second population, an increasing PPG was associated with increase in the proportion of advanced liver fibrosis (P = 0.012). Multivariate line regression revealed that PPG {OR 0.03 [95% CI (0.00-0.06)], P = 0.049}was positively associated with liver fibrosis stages. In the third population, PPG {OR 0.103, [95% CI (0.011-0.194) P = 0.028} at baseline was positively associated with NFS at follow-up. Furthermore, changes in PPG were significantly associated with NFS change after follow-up. We did not find a similar association between fasting glucose or HbA1c and liver fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

PPG was independently associated with the severity of liver fibrosis in the Chinese NAFLD population.

Endocrinological and inflammatory markers in individuals with spinal cord injury: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Spinal cord injury (SCI) can lead to dramatic physiological changes which can be a factor in developing secondary health conditions and might be reflected in biomarker changes in this elevated risk group. We focused specifically on the endocrine and inflammation profile differences between SCI and able-bodied individuals (ABI). Our aim was to determine the differences in inflammatory markers and endocrine profiles between SCI and ABI. We systematically searched 4 electronic databases for relevant studies. Human observational (cross-sectional, cohort, case-control) studies that compared biomarkers of interest between SCI and ABI population were included. Weighted mean difference between SCI and ABI was calculated using random-effects models. Heterogeneity was computed using I² statistic and chi-squared test. Study quality was evaluated through the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The search strategy yielded a total of 2,603 studies from which 256 articles were selected for full-text assessment. Sixty-two studies were included in the meta-analysis. SCI individuals had higher levels of pro-inflammatory C-reactive protein and IL-6 than ABI. Creatinine and 25-hydroxyvitamin D₃ levels were lower in SCI than ABI. Total testosterone levels and IGF-1 were also found to be lower, while cortisol and leptin levels were higher in SCI when compared to ABI. Accordingly, meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and leave-one-out analysis were performed, however, they were only able to partially explain the high levels of heterogeneity. Individuals with SCI show higher levels of inflammatory markers and present significant endocrinological changes when compared to ABI. Moreover, higher incidence of obesity, diabetes, osteoporosis, and hypogonadism in SCI individuals, together with decreased creatinine levels reflect some of the readily measurable aspects of the phenotype changes in the SCI group. These findings need to be considered in anticipating medically related complications and personalizing SCI medical care.

The Value of Hemoglobin Glycation Index-Diabetes Mellitus System in Evaluating and Predicting Incident Stroke in the Chinese Population

We aimed to clarify the effect of the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI)–diabetes mellitus (DM) system in evaluating the risk of incident stroke. We followed up on 2934 subjects in rural regions of Northeast China, established Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the effects of the HGI–DM system in describing stroke risk, and further conducted a discrimination analysis to confirm the improvement in HGI based on the traditional stroke risk model. After a median of 4.23 years of follow-up, 79 subjects developed stroke or related death. DM-high HGI condition significantly elevated the risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio (HR): 2.655, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.251–5.636). In addition, higher HGI levels elevated the risk of stroke, even if the patients did not have DM (HR: 1.701, 95% CI: 1.136–2.792), but DM failed to bring an extra risk of incident stroke to patients with lower HGI levels (HR: 1.138, 95% CI: 0.337–3.847). The discrimination analysis indicated that the integrated discrimination index (IDI) of the HGI model was 0.012 (95% CI: 0.007–0.015) and that the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.036 (95% CI: 0.0198–0.0522). These results indicated HGI was associated with the onset of stroke, and high HGI indicated an aggravated trend in glycemic status and increased risk of incident stroke. The HGI–DM system enabled us to identify the different glucose statuses of patients, to conduct suitable treatment strategies, as well as to improve the predictability of incident stroke based on the traditional model.

The acute effect of glucagon on components of energy balance and glucose homoeostasis in adults without diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

Using a systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to estimate the mean effect of acute glucagon administration on components of energy balance and glucose homoeostasis in adults without diabetes.

Methods

CENTRAL, CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, and Scopus databases were searched from inception to May 2021. To be included, papers had to be a randomised, crossover, single- or double-blind study, measuring ad libitum meal energy intake, energy expenditure, subjective appetite, glucose, and/or insulin following acute administration of glucagon and an appropriate comparator in adults without diabetes. Risk of bias was assessed using the Revised Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Randomized trials with additional considerations for cross-over trials. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed for outcomes with at least five studies. This study is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021269623).

Results

In total, 13 papers (15 studies) were considered eligible: energy intake (5 studies, 77 participants); energy expenditure (5 studies, 59 participants); subjective appetite (3 studies, 39 participants); glucose (13 studies, 159 participants); insulin (12 studies, 147 participants). All studies had some concerns with regards to risk of bias. Mean intervention effect of acute glucagon administration on energy intake was small (standardised mean difference [SMD]: –0.19; 95% CI, –0.59 to 0.21; P = 0.345). Mean intervention effect of acute glucagon administration on energy expenditure (SMD: 0.72; 95% CI, 0.37–1.08; P < 0.001), glucose (SMD: 1.11; 95% CI, 0.60–1.62; P < 0.001), and insulin (SMD: 1.33; 95% CI, 0.88–1.77; P < 0.001) was moderate to large.

Conclusions

Acute glucagon administration produces substantial increases in energy expenditure, and in circulating insulin and glucose concentrations. However, the effect of acute glucagon administration on energy intake is unclear. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the acute effect of glucagon on subjective appetite.

Examining the Linear Association Between Blood Pressure Levels and Cardiovascular Diseases in the Absence of Major Risk Factors in China

BACKGROUND

Many studies demonstrate a J-shaped association between blood pressure and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), but the findings are plagued by confounding from other traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). Our aims were to examine the associations of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) levels with CVD in individuals without major CVRFs and whether there were thresholds for the association.

METHODS

In the 4C study (China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort), 36 042 CVRF-free participants without CVD, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, or smoking were identified during 2011 to 2012. Among CVRF-free participants, 17 476 CVRF-preferable individuals with better glycemic (fasting glucose, <110 mg/dL; 2-hour post-load glucose, <140 mg/dL) and lipid profile (total cholesterol, <200 mg/dL; LDL [low-density lipoprotein] cholesterol, <130 mg/dL) were selected. The total person-years of follow-up for CVRF-free subjects and CVRF-preferable subjects were 130 147 and 63 573 person-years, respectively. Information on the development of major CVDs was collected during 2014 to 2016. Cox proportional hazard models were performed to estimate the risks for incident CVD by SBP and DBP groups, respectively.

RESULTS

We found that both baseline SBP and DBP presented significantly linear associations with CVD risks in CVRF-free and CVRF-preferable participants. There is significant increase in the CVD risk among CVRF-free participants with baseline SBP level of 110 to 119 mm Hg (hazard ratio, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.19-2.71]), 120 to 129 mm Hg (hazard ratio, 2.03 [95% CI, 1.36-3.03]), and 130 to 139 mm Hg (hazard ratio, 2.15 [95% CI, 1.40-3.28]) compared with SBP <110 mm Hg. Significant increases were also observed for DBP level of 80 to 89 mm Hg (hazard ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.03-1.97]) compared with DBP <70 mm Hg. Similar results were observed in CVRF-preferable participants.

CONCLUSIONS

SBP and DBP with levels currently considered normal were significantly and linearly associated with incident CVD without thresholds above 110/70 mm Hg among Chinese adults without major CVRFs.

Use of the new guidelines on an earlier age threshold of 35 years for diabetes screening can identify an additional 6.3 million undiagnosed individuals with diabetes and 72.3 million individuals with prediabetes among Chinese adults: An analysis of a nationally representative survey

BACKGROUND

Young-onset diabetes has been increasingly prevalent in China and most of the young patients with diabetes remain undiagnosed. Recently, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) updated their screening criteria and turned down the age threshold of diabetes screening from 45 years to 35 years, which highlighted the importance of identifying young individuals with diabetes. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the clinical relevance of updated ADA screening recommendations in Chinese adults and the metabolic features and risk factor profiles of these newly diagnosed individuals.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design, we analyzed data from a nationally representative sample of 98,658 Chinese adults in 2010. Participants without previously diagnosed diabetes were included into the present study. We calculated the proportion of individuals with diabetes eligible for screening and the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one patient with diabetes by age groups.

RESULTS

Setting an earlier age threshold of diabetes screening can identify additional 6.3 million patients with diabetes and 72.3 million individuals with prediabetes, and the proportion of identified individuals increased more in rural, underdeveloped, and central areas. The NNS in Chinese adults dropped significantly from 28 in 30-34 age group to 15 in 35-45 years of age and remained low afterwards. The undiagnosed patients with diabetes who met the new screening age threshold of ADA recommendation were characterized by younger age, lower blood pressure and blood lipids, but higher proportion of overweight and higher level of insulin resistance, and tended to have an unhealthy diet habit, including low intake of fruits and vegetables and high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, compared to those aged over 45 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The new age threshold of 35 years for diabetes screening would reduce the proportion of undiagnosed diabetes with high cost-effectiveness, given the NNS for a positive test result was much lower in 35-45 age group comparing to the lower age group in Chinese adults.

Dose-response association between sedentary time and incident of diabetes in Chinese middle-aged and older adults: The 4C study

AIMS

To investigate the dose-response relationship of total sedentary time with incident diabetes in Chinese middle-aged and older adults.

METHODS

The present study followed 100,525 participants aged ≥ 40 years old from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) Study, which was a prospective study conducted in 25 communities across mainland China. Associations between sedentary time and incident diabetes were assessed with Cox regression and restricted cubic splines.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 7,529 participants developed diabetes. After adjustment for multiple variables, high levels of sedentary time (≥ 30 h/week) was associated with increased risk for developing diabetes (hazards ratio, 1.08; 95 % confidence intervals 1.02, 1.14) compared with low levels of sedentary time (<20 h/week). Restricted cubic spline analyses revealed an inverted U-shaped relation between sedentary time with diabetes. Subgroup analyses found that the observed association remained significant in subgroup of individuals with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/cm² or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) ≥ 90 mm Hg. However, the significant association was diminished in participants with sufficient physical activity (PA) (P = 0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

The multicenter, population-based, prospective study suggested an inverted U-shaped relation between sedentary time with diabetes. PA alleviated the deleterious effects associated with sedentary time.

Age-specific difference in the association between prediabetes and subclinical atherosclerosis: an analysis of a chinese prospective cohort study

Background

Prediabetes is an important risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and is associated with subclinical atherosclerosis. However, the evidence of prediabetes as a cardiovascular risk factor is mainly derived from middle-aged adults. Recently, multiple studies supported that prediabetes in older adults would not lead to higher risk of CVD or mortality. We aimed to investigate the age-specific difference in the association between prediabetes and subclinical atherosclerosis in a Chinese prospective cohort study.

Methods

We included 4739 individuals aged ≥ 40 years and without diagnosed diabetes or CVD history, and divided them into middle-aged adults (age < 60) and older adults (age ≥ 60). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h post-load plasma glucose (2 h-PPG) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) were measured at baseline to identify prediabetes status. At follow-up visits, subclinical atherosclerosis status was assessed by branchial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). Logistic regression analysis, restricted cubic splines and cross-lagged path analysis were used in statistical analysis.

Results

1634 participants aged over 60 years, and 64.3% of them had prediabetes. 3105 participants aged 40–59 years, and 49.3% of them had prediabetes. We found that prediabetes was associated with increased risk of subclinical atherosclerosis in middle-aged adults, but the association attenuated substantially in older adults. Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), compared to normal glucose tolerance, was associated with 39% lower risk of increased baPWV only in older adults. In accordance, the association between 2 h-PPG and risk of increased baPWV was “U-shaped” in older adults, while risk of elevated baPWV increased linearly with 2 h-PPG in middle-aged adults. In the cross-lagged analysis, increase in FPG and 2 h-PPG tended not to precede increase in baPWV in older adults, but appeared to increase simultaneously with baPWV in middle-aged ones.

Conclusion

Our results indicated that prediabetes might be less related to subclinical atherosclerosis in older adults than in middle-aged adults and suggested that age was important to consider in the care of adults with prediabetes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01592-8.

Association Between Insulin Resistance and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Varies According to Glucose Tolerance Status: A Nationwide Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether the association between insulin resistance and cardiovascular disease (CVD) differs by glucose tolerance status.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We analyzed a nationwide sample of 111,576 adults without CVD at baseline, using data from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort Study. Insulin resistance was estimated by sex-specific HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) quartiles for participants with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes, or diabetes, separately, and by 1 SD of HOMA-IR for the overall study participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between insulin resistance and incident CVD according to glucose tolerance status and evaluate the CVD risk associated with the combined categories of insulin resistance and obesity in prediabetes and diabetes, as compared with normal glucose tolerance. Models were adjusted for age, sex, education attainment, alcohol drinking, smoking, physical activity, and diet quality.

RESULTS

In participants with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes, and diabetes defined by three glucose parameters, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) for incident CVD associated with the highest versus the lowest quartile of HOMA-IR were 1.03 (0.82-1.30), 1.23 (1.07-1.42), and 1.61 (1.30-2.00), respectively; the corresponding values for CVD per 1-SD increase in HOMA-IR were 1.04 (0.92-1.18), 1.12 (1.06-1.18), and 1.15 (1.09-1.21), respectively (P for interaction = 0.011). Compared with participants with normal glucose tolerance, in participants with prediabetes, the combination of the highest HOMA-IR quartile and obesity showed 17% (95% CI 2-34%) higher risk of CVD, while the combination of the lowest two HOMA-IR quartiles and nonobesity showed 15-17% lower risk of CVD. In participants with diabetes, the upper two HOMA-IR quartiles exhibited 44-77% higher risk of CVD, regardless of obesity status. Consistent findings were observed for glucose tolerance status defined by different combinations of glycemic parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucose intolerance status exacerbated the association between insulin resistance and CVD risk. Compared with adults with normal glucose tolerance, adults with prediabetes who were both insulin resistant and obese exhibited higher risks of CVD, while in adults with diabetes, the CVD risk related to insulin resistance remained, regardless of obesity.

Cost-effectiveness of community diabetes screening: Application of Akaike information criterion in rural communities of Nigeria

Background

The prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is increasing globally, and this requires several approaches to screening. There are reports of alternative indices for prediction of DM, besides fasting blood glucose (FBG) level. This study, investigated the ability of combination of biochemical and anthropometric parameters and orodental disease indicators (ODIs) to generate models for DM prediction, using Akaike information criterion (AIC) to substantiate health economics of diabetes screening.

Methods

Four hundred and thirty-three subjects were enrolled in the study in Ndokwa communities, Delta State, Nigeria, and their glycaemic status was determined, using the CardioChek analyser^® and previous data from the Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Complications Study were also used. The cost of screening for diabetes (NGN 300 = $0.72) in a not-for-profit organization/hospital was used as basis to calculate the health economics of number of individuals with DM in 1,000 participants. Data on the subjects' anthropometric, biochemical and ODI parameters were used to generate different models, using R statistical software (version 4.0.0). The different models were evaluated for their AIC values. Lowest AIC was considered as best model. Microsoft Excel software (version 2020) was used in preliminary analysis.

Result

The cost of identifying <2 new subjects with hyperglycemia, in 1,000 people was ≥NGN 300,000 ($ 716). A total of 4,125 models were generated. AIC modeling indicates FBG test as the best model (AIC = 4), and the least being combination of random blood sugar + waist circumference + hip circumference (AIC ≈ 34). Models containing ODI parameters had AIC values >34, hence considered as not recommendable.

Conclusion

The cost of general screening for diabetes in rural communities may appear high and burdensome in terms of health economics. However, the use of prediction models involving AIC is of value in terms of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness to the healthcare consumers, which favors health economics.

The Dietary Branched-Chain Amino Acids Transition and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Among Chinese Adults From 1997 to 2015: Based on Seven Cross-Sectional Studies and a Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The situation is grim for the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and prediabetes in China. Serum and dietary branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) were risk factors for T2D. However, there is a lack of information on trends in consumption of BCAAs and the risk of T2D associated with BCAAs intake, based on nationally representative data in China. Thus, we aimed to comprehensively describe the dietary BCAAs transition and risk of T2D, at a national level among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2015.

Methods

The data sources were the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) and China Nutrition and Health Survey (CNHS). Cross-sectional data on intake were obtained from CHNS (1997, n = 9,404), CHNS (2000, n = 10,291), CHNS (2004, n = 9,682), CHNS (2006, n = 9,553), CHNS (2009, n = 9,811), CHNS (2011, n = 12,686) and CNHS (2015, n = 71,695). Prospective cohort data were obtained CHNS (1997-2015, n = 15,508).

Results

From 1997 to 2015, there was a significant decreasing trend in the BCAAs intake of Chinese adults in all subgroups (P < 0.0001) except for Leu in 80 or older, and a decreasing trend in the consumption of BCAAs after 40 years old (P < 0.05). The mean intake of BCAAs in the population of cohort study was 11.83 ± 3.77g/day. The 95% CI was above the HR of 1.0, when the consumptions were higher than 14.01, 3.75, 6.07, 4.21 g/day in BCAAs, Ile, Leu and Val, based on RCS curves. According to the Cox proportional hazards models, Compared with individuals with BCAAs consumption of 10.65-12.37 g/day, the multivariable-adjusted HR for diabetes was 2.26 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.51) for individuals with consumption of BCAAs more than 18.52 g/day. A statistically significant positive association between BCAAs intake and risk of T2D was observed in males or participants aged 45 years and older, but not in females or participants younger than 45 years.

Conclusion

Our results reveal a trend toward decreased BCAAs intake in Chinese from 1997 to 2015. After 40 years of age, consumption of BCAAs declined with increasing age. Higher BCAAs intake was associated with higher risk of T2D. This relationship is more stable among men and middle-aged and elderly people.

Amelioration of glucose intolerance through directly acting antiviral agents in chronic hepatitis C cirrhotic patients without overt diabetes

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication through antivirals ameliorates metabolic profiles. The changes in 2-h plasma glucose (2HPG) levels by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who receive directly acting antivirals (DAAs) was elusive. Five hundred and thirty-three CHC patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR, undetectable HCV RNA throughout 3 months after the end-of-treatment) by DAAs were consecutively enrolled. Pre- and posttreatment 2HPG levels and glucose status were compared. The proportion of patients with improved, worsened, and stable 2HPG was 14.4% (n = 77), 18.6% (n = 99), and 67.0% (n = 357), respectively. Compared with patients with worsening 2HPG, those with improved 2HPG had a higher proportion of cirrhosis (45.5% vs. 24.2%, p = 0.004) and higher pretreatment 2HPG levels (175.3 vs. 129.5 mg/dl, p < 0.001). High baseline 2HPG was independently associated with improved 2HPG in multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR]/CI: 1.05/1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). When baseline 2HPG was not taken into account, cirrhosis was the only factor independently associated with improved 2HPG status (OR/CI: 2.58/1.29-5.15, p = 0.007). Linear regression analysis revealed that factors independently correlated to changes in 2HPG levels were female sex (β: 8.78; 95% CI:2.34, 15.22; p = 0.01), diabetes (β: -27.72; 95% CI: -50.16, -5.28; p = 0.02), liver cirrhosis (β: -8.91; 95% CI: -16.75, -2.20; p = 0.01), and genotype 1 of HCV (β: -0.12; 95% CI: -15.19, -2.43; p = 0.01). 2HPG improved after HCV eradication by DAAs, particularly in cirrhotic patients.

Predicting the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Elderly Using Machine Learning Techniques

Early identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes is crucial for implementing early intervention strategies. However, algorithms specific to elderly Chinese adults are lacking. The aim of this study is to build effective prediction models based on machine learning (ML) for the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Chinese elderly. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the health screening data of adults older than 65 years in Wuhan, China from 2018 to 2020. With a strict data filtration, 127,031 records from the eligible participants were utilized. Overall, 8298 participants were diagnosed with incident T2DM during the 2-year follow-up (2019–2020). The dataset was randomly split into training set (n = 101,625) and test set (n = 25,406). We developed prediction models based on four ML algorithms: logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Using LASSO regression, 21 prediction features were selected. The Random under-sampling (RUS) was applied to address the class imbalance, and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used to calculate and visualize feature importance. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The XGBoost model achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.7805, sensitivity = 0.6452, specificity = 0.7577, accuracy = 0.7503). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), education, exercise, gender, and waist circumference (WC) were the top five important predictors. This study showed that XGBoost model can be applied to screen individuals at high risk of T2DM in the early phrase, which has the strong potential for intelligent prevention and control of diabetes. The key features could also be useful for developing targeted diabetes prevention interventions.